Repository: alan-turing-institute/sktime (python)

Issue:
[BUG] Error in `inverse-variance` method of `AutoEnsembleForecaster`
**Describe the bug**
When fitting the `AutoEnsembleForecaster` forecaster with exogenous data using the `inverse-variance` method, an error is raised. This is because `X` is passed to the internal forecasters instead of `X_test` when a prediction is made (see [here](https://github.com/alan-turing-institute/sktime/blob/4164639e1c521b112711c045d0f7e63013c1e4eb/sktime/forecasting/compose/_ensemble.py#L190)).

**To Reproduce**

```python
from sktime.datasets import load_longley
from sktime.forecasting.arima import ARIMA
from sktime.forecasting.compose import AutoEnsembleForecaster

forecasters = [
    ("forecaster_1", ARIMA()),
    ("forecaster_2", ARIMA()),
]

y, X = load_longley()


ensemble_forecaster = AutoEnsembleForecaster(
    forecasters=forecasters, method="inverse-variance"
)
ensemble_forecaster.fit(y, X)
```

This code snippet has the following output:

```
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "test.py", line 16, in <module>
    ensemble_forecaster.fit(y, X)
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/sktime/forecasting/base/_base.py", line 270, in fit
    self._fit(y=y_inner, X=X_inner, fh=fh)
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/sktime/forecasting/compose/_ensemble.py", line 190, in _fit
    for y_pred_test in self._predict_forecasters(fh_test, X)
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/sktime/forecasting/base/_meta.py", line 72, in _predict_forecasters
    return [forecaster.predict(fh=fh, X=X) for forecaster in self.forecasters_]
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/sktime/forecasting/base/_meta.py", line 72, in <listcomp>
    return [forecaster.predict(fh=fh, X=X) for forecaster in self.forecasters_]
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/sktime/forecasting/base/_base.py", line 325, in predict
    y_pred = self._predict(fh=fh, X=X_inner)
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/sktime/forecasting/base/adapters/_pmdarima.py", line 76, in _predict
    return self._predict_fixed_cutoff(fh_oos, X=X)
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/sktime/forecasting/base/adapters/_pmdarima.py", line 178, in _predict_fixed_cutoff
    result = self._forecaster.predict(
  File "/Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/lib/python3.8/site-packages/pmdarima/arima/arima.py", line 785, in predict
    raise ValueError('X array dims (n_rows) != n_periods')
ValueError: X array dims (n_rows) != n_periods
```

**Expected behavior**

The enseble forecaster should run without error and summarize the forecasters based on the inverse error variance of their predictions.

**Additional context**
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Add any other context about the problem here.
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**Versions**
<details>

System:
    python: 3.8.9 (default, Oct 16 2021, 12:00:06)  [Clang 12.0.0 (clang-1200.0.32.29)]
executable: /Users/anhoang/Projekte/2022/Daimler/Chronos/chronos/.venv/bin/python
   machine: macOS-11.6-x86_64-i386-64bit

Python dependencies:
          pip: 22.1.2
   setuptools: 63.2.0
      sklearn: 1.1.1
       sktime: 0.13.0
  statsmodels: 0.13.2
        numpy: 1.22.4
        scipy: 1.8.1
       pandas: 1.4.3
   matplotlib: 3.5.2
       joblib: 1.1.0
        numba: 0.56.0
     pmdarima: 1.8.5
      tsfresh: 0.19.0
</details>

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Pull request description:
 [BUG] Fix `AutoEnsembleForecaster` inverse variance bug
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at our contribution guide: https://github.com/alan-turing-institute/sktime/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md
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#### Reference Issues/PRs
Fixes #3199
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#### What does this implement/fix? Explain your changes.
Fix the error described in #3199 that occurred in `AutoEnsembleForecaster` when `method="inverse-variance"` was used. This was caused by passing `X` instead of `X_test` to the internal forecasters when making predictions in `fit` method. This has been fixed. In addition, tests for the `AutoEnsembleForecaster` have been added.
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#### Does your contribution introduce a new dependency? If yes, which one?
No

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No
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##### For all contributions
- [x] I've added myself to the [list of contributors](https://github.com/alan-turing-institute/sktime/blob/main/.all-contributorsrc).
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Patch:
diff --git a/.all-contributorsrc b/.all-contributorsrc
index fd30624a6..8aca5c8e5 100644
--- a/.all-contributorsrc
+++ b/.all-contributorsrc
@@ -1739,6 +1739,14 @@
       "contributions": [
         "code",
       ]
+    },
+    {
+      "login": "AnH0ang",
+      "name": "An Hoang",
+      "profile": "https://github.com/AnH0ang",
+      "contributions": [
+        "bug"
+      ]
     }
   ],
   "projectName": "sktime",
diff --git a/sktime/forecasting/compose/_ensemble.py b/sktime/forecasting/compose/_ensemble.py
index 58ef6d045..2fe9c39ce 100644
--- a/sktime/forecasting/compose/_ensemble.py
+++ b/sktime/forecasting/compose/_ensemble.py
@@ -187,7 +187,7 @@ class AutoEnsembleForecaster(_HeterogenousEnsembleForecaster):
             inv_var = np.array(
                 [
                     1 / np.var(y_test - y_pred_test)
-                    for y_pred_test in self._predict_forecasters(fh_test, X)
+                    for y_pred_test in self._predict_forecasters(fh_test, X_test)
                 ]
             )
             # standardize the inverse variance


Test patch:
diff --git a/sktime/forecasting/compose/tests/test_autoensemble.py b/sktime/forecasting/compose/tests/test_autoensemble.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..65f39ef90
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sktime/forecasting/compose/tests/test_autoensemble.py
@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3 -u
+# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
+# copyright: sktime developers, BSD-3-Clause License (see LICENSE file).
+"""Unit tests of AutoEnsembleForecaster functionality."""
+
+__author__ = ["mloning", "GuzalBulatova", "aiwalter", "RNKuhns", "AnH0ang"]
+
+import pandas as pd
+import pytest
+from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
+from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeRegressor
+
+from sktime.datasets import load_longley
+from sktime.forecasting.base import ForecastingHorizon
+from sktime.forecasting.compose import (
+    AutoEnsembleForecaster,
+    RecursiveTabularRegressionForecaster,
+)
+from sktime.forecasting.model_selection import temporal_train_test_split
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize(
+    "forecasters",
+    [
+        [
+            (
+                "dt",
+                RecursiveTabularRegressionForecaster(
+                    DecisionTreeRegressor(random_state=42), window_length=3
+                ),
+            ),
+            (
+                "lr",
+                RecursiveTabularRegressionForecaster(
+                    LinearRegression(), window_length=3
+                ),
+            ),
+        ],
+    ],
+)
+@pytest.mark.parametrize(
+    "method",
+    ["inverse-variance", "feature-importance"],
+)
+def test_autoensembler(forecasters, method):
+    """Check that the prediction is a weighted mean of the individual predictions."""
+    y, X = load_longley()
+    y_train, y_test, X_train, X_test = temporal_train_test_split(y, X)
+
+    fh_test = ForecastingHorizon(y_test.index, is_relative=False)
+
+    ensemble_forecaster = AutoEnsembleForecaster(forecasters=forecasters, method=method)
+    ensemble_forecaster.fit(y_train, X_train)
+    y_pred = ensemble_forecaster.predict(fh=fh_test, X=X_test)
+
+    predictions = []
+    for _, forecaster in forecasters:
+        f = forecaster
+        f.fit(y_train, X_train)
+        f_pred = f.predict(fh=fh_test, X=X_test)
+        predictions.append(f_pred)
+    predictions = pd.DataFrame(predictions).T
+
+    assert (predictions.min(axis=1) <= y_pred).all()
+    assert (predictions.max(axis=1) >= y_pred).all()