natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
While this process is in essence extremely complex – one that changes over time and is different in various economies, so much so that, even today, not all the details behind it are fully known – its basic features are well understood.
Poleg tega sta obseg in intenzivnost različnih učinkov odvisna od gospodarskih razmer.
The way in which monetary policy exerts its influence on the economy can be explained as follows: the central bank is the sole issuer of banknotes and bank reserves, i.e. it is the monopolistic supplier of the socalled “monetary base”.
Zato navadno traja kar nekaj časa, preden začne denarna politika vplivati na cenovna gibanja.
By virtue of this monopoly, the central bank is able to influence money market conditions and steer shortterm interest rates.
Vendar pa v ekonomski teoriji velja, da bo na dolgi rok, torej potem, ko so v gospodarstvu opravljene vse prilagoditve, sprememba v količini denarja, ki ga zagotavlja
In the long run, changes in the money supply will affect the general price level … The dynamic processes outlined above involve a number of different mechanisms and actions taken by various economic agents at different stages of the process.
Kako lahko denarna politika vpliva na raven cen? Vprašanje je povezano s procesom, ki ga ekonomisti imenujejo »transmisijski mehanizem« in označuje način, kako se ukrepi centralne banke prenašajo skozi gospodarstvo in na koncu vplivajo na cene.
Furthermore, the size and strength of the various effects can vary according to the state of the economy.
Proces je precej zapleten in še ni povsem raziskan, znane pa so njegove temeljne značilnosti.
As a result, monetary policy usually takes a considerable amount of time to affect price developments.
Mehanizem, s katerim denarna politika vpliva na gospodarstvo, je mogoče pojasniti takole: centralna banka je edini izdajatelj bankovcev in bančnih rezerv in potemtakem monopolni ponudnik t.i. primarnega denarja.
However, in the economics profession, it is widely accepted that, in the long run, i.e. after all adjustments in the economy have
S tem monopolom lahko centralna banka vpliva na pogoje na trgu denarja in usmerja kratkoročne obrestne mere.
4 economy (notably property rights, tax policy, welfare policies and other regulations determining the flexibility of markets and incentives to supply labour and capital and to invest in human resources).
kratkoročne nominalne obrestne mere za svoja posojila bankam. Pričakovanja glede prihodnjih gibanj obrestnih mer po drugi strani vplivajo na vrsto dolgoročnih bančnih in tržnih obrestnih mer.
A monetary policy which credibly maintains price stability has an important positive impact on welfare.
KAKO SPREMEMBE OBRESTNIH MER VPLIVAJO NA NAKUPNE ODLOČITVE
worked through, a change in the quantity of money supplied by the central bank (all things being equal) will only be reflected in a change in the general level of prices and will not cause permanent changes in real variables such as real output or unemployment.
Centralna banka lahko določi kratkoročne nominalne obrestne mere, ki jih morajo banke plačati, ko pri centralni banki vzamejo posojilo.
A change in the quantity of money in circulation brought about by the central bank is ultimately equivalent to a change in the unit of account (and thereby in the general price level), which leaves all other variables stable, in much the same way as changing the standard unit used to measure distance (e.g. switching from kilometres to miles) would not alter the actual distance between two locations.
V to so prisiljene, ker potrebujejo bankovce za svoje stranke in morajo izpolniti svoje obveznosti glede obveznih rezerv v obliki depozitov pri centralni banki.
Inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon Inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon.
Ker so centralne banke edine ustanove, ki izdajajo bankovce (in bančne rezerve) – so torej monopolni ponudniki primarnega denarja – lahko določijo
As confirmed by a number of empirical studies, prolonged periods of high inflation are typically associated with high monetary growth (see the chart below).
Z vidika posameznega gospodinjstva predstavlja višja realna obrestna mera spodbudo za varčevanje, saj donosi na hranilne vloge pomenijo možnost večje potrošnje v prihodnosti.
While other factors (such as variations in aggregate demand, technological changes or commodity price shocks) can influence price developments over shorter horizons, over time their effects can be offset by some degree of adjustment of monetary policy.
Zato višje realne obrestne mere navadno povzročijo padec tekoče potrošnje in rast varčevanja.
In this sense, the longerterm trends of prices or inflation can be controlled by central banks.
Po drugi strani višja realna obrestna mera, če vsi ostali dejavniki ostanejo nespremenjeni, podjetja odvrača od naložb, saj imajo na voljo manj naložbenih projektov, ki bi dajali tolikšen donos, da pokrijejo višje stroške kapitala.
CHART MONEY AND INFLATION
GRAF: DENAR IN INFLACIJA
Average annual rates of growth in M2 and in consumer prices from 1960–90 in 110 countries.
Povprečna medletna stopnja rasti denarnega agregata M2 in cen življenjskih potrebščin med leti 1960 in 1990 v 110 državah.
These main determinants of long-run employment and real income are technology, population growth and all aspects of the institutional framework of the
Učinki na posamezna gospodinjstva in podjetja kažejo, da povečanje realnih obrestnih mer, ki ga povzročijo ukrepi denarne politike, vodi v zmanjšanje tekoče potrošnje v gospodarstvu kot celoti (če vse ostale spremenljivke ostanejo nespremenjene).
80 100 Money growth (%)
80 100 Rast denarja (%)
HOW DO CHANGES IN INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE EXPENDITURE DECISIONS
Pomembno je razumeti, da v tem procesu prihaja do časovnih odlogov.
Economists say that such a policy change causes a drop in aggregate demand and is thus often referred to as a “tightening” of monetary policy.
Pogosto mine več mesecev, preden podjetja začnejo izvajati nov investicijski načrt; naložbe v nove poslovne prostore ali zahtevnejšo opremo včasih trajajo celo več let.
DEVELOPMENTS
CENOVNA GIBANJA
Monetary policy cannot, therefore, control the overall demand for goods and services in the short run.
politika zato na kratki rok ne more nadzorovati skupnega povpraševanja po blagu in storitvah.
Expressed in another way, there is a significant time lag between a change in monetary policy and its effect on the economy.
Povedano drugače: med spremembo denarne politike in njenimi učinki na gospodarstvo obstaja precejšen zamik.
Indeed, it is generally agreed that the overall transmission process of monetary policy
Na splošno velja, da celoten transmisijski mehanizem denarne politike zahteva čas. Denarna
BOX 4.1 WHY CAN CENTRAL BANKS INFLUENCE (EX ANTE) REAL INTEREST RATES?
OKVIR 4.1 ZAKAJ LAHKO CENTRALNE BANKE VPLIVAJO NA PRIČAKOVANE (EX ANTE) REALNE OBRESTNE MERE?
THE ROLE OF “STICKY” PRICES it is costly to alter prices.
VLOGA »LEPLJIVIH CEN« postane spreminjanje cen zelo drago.
Finally, the calculation of new prices is costly as well.
In končno, tudi izračunavanje novih cen je drago.
In the long run, however, prices adjust to new supply and demand conditions.
Na dolgi rok pa se cene načeloma prilagajajo spremembam v pogojih ponudbe in povpraševanja.
Put another way, prices are fully flexible in the long run.10
Povedano drugače – na dolgi rok so cene popolnoma prožne.11
As explained in more detail in Box 3.2, the ex ante real interest rate is the real return which a certain financial asset is expected to deliver.
Kot smo podrobneje pojasnili v okviru 3.2, predstavljajo pričakovane realne obrestne mere realni donos, ki se pričakuje za določeno finančno sredstvo.
It is defined as the nominal interest rate minus expected inflation over the maturity for which the interest rate is fixed.
Opredeljene so kot nominalne obrestne mere minus pričakovana inflacija v času dospelosti, za katero je obrestna mera fiksna.
The impact of monetary policy on shortterm real interest rates is related to two issues: monetary policy controls the shortterm nominal interest rate, and prices are sticky in the short run.
Učinek denarne politike na kratkoročne realne obrestne mere je povezan z dvema vprašanjema: prvič, denarna politika nadzoruje kratkoročne nominalne obrestne mere, in drugič, cene se na kratki rok ne spreminjajo.
Now assume that the central bank increases the supply of money.
Vzemimo, da centralna banka poveča ponudbo denarja.
For example, it prints new money and buys government bonds.
Lahko na primer natisne nove bankovce ali pa kupi državne obveznice.
People are only prepared to hold a higher amount of money and reduce their holdings of bonds if the return on the bonds, i.e. the interest rate, falls.Thus, if the central bank increases the supply of money, the nominal interest rate must fall in order to induce people to hold a higher amount of money.
Ljudje so pripravljeni povečati delež svojega imetja v gotovini in s tem zmanjšati delež obveznic, če se donos obveznic, tj. obrestna mera, zniža. Če torej centralna banka poveča ponudbo denarja, se morajo nominalne obrestne mere znižati, da bi ljudi spodbudile k povečanju imetja v gotovini.
And as prices are sticky in the short run, this implies that shortterm inflation expectations remain largely unchanged.
Toda ker so cene na kratki rok lepljive, se kratkoročna inflacijska pričakovanja večinoma ne spremenijo.
As a consequence, a change in shortterm nominal interest rates translates into a change in the ex ante expected real interest rate (see also Box 3.2).
Sprememba kratkoročnih nominalnih obrestnih mer se zato pretvori v spremembo pričakovanih realnih obrestnih mer (gl. okvir 3.2).
Therefore, monetary policy can influence expected or ex ante real interest rates on shortterm instruments.
To pomeni, da lahko denarna politika vpliva na pričakovane ali ex ante realne obrestne mere za kratkoročne instrumente.
10 With the exception of administered prices, which can only be expected to change very rarely.
11 Z izjemo nadzorovanih cen, za katere se pričakuje, da se bodo spreminjale zelo redko.
What is the meaning of “sticky prices”?
Kaj pomeni izraz »lepljive cene«?
Empirical evidence tells us that most prices are fixed for some time; very often firms do not instantly adjust the prices they charge in response to changes in supply or demand.
Iz prakse vemo, da se večina cen nekaj časa ne spreminja. Podjetja cen običajno ne spremenijo takoj, ko se spremenijo pogoji ponudbe in povpraševanja.
In reality, some prices are adjusted very often (e.g. petrol prices), while other prices are adjusted only every month or once a year.
Nekatere cene se prilagajajo zelo pogosto (npr. cene motornih goriv), druge pa samo enkrat mesečno ali enkrat letno.
There can be various reasons for this.
Vzroki so lahko različni.
First, prices are sometimes set by long-term contracts between firms and customers to reduce the uncertainties and costs associated with frequent negotiations.
Prvič, včasih so cene določene z dolgoročnimi pogodbami med podjetji in njihovimi strankami, ki želijo na ta način zmanjšati negotovost in stroške, ki so povezani s pogostimi pogajanji.
Second, firms may hold prices steady in order not to annoy their regular customers with frequent price changes.Third, some prices are sticky because of the way markets are structured; once a firm has printed and distributed a catalogue or price list,
Drugič, podjetja utegnejo ohranjati stalne cene, da s prepogostimi popravki ne bi odtujila rednih strank. Tretjič, nekatere cene so lepljive zaradi strukturiranosti trga; ko podjetje svoj cenik natisne in razpošlje,
BOX 4.2 HOW DO CHANGES IN AGGREGATE DEMAND AFFECT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND PRICE DEVELOPMENTS?
OKVIR 4.2 KAKO SPREMEMBE V SKUPNEM POVPRAŠEVANJU VPLIVAJO NA GOSPODARSKO RAST IN CENOVNA GIBANJA?
An easy way of illustrating how changes in aggregate demand affect price developments is to use a simple model focusing on aggregate supply and demand in the whole economy.
Vpliv sprememb v skupnem povpraševanju na cenovna gibanja najlažje pojasnimo s preprostim modelom, ki predstavlja skupno ponudbo in povpraševanje za celotno gospodarstvo.
For the purposes of this exercise, we will keep the analysis fairly straightforward.
V analizi bomo zanemarili zahtevnejše podrobnosti in glavne poudarke ponazorili z grafi.
At the same time, we will illustrate our arguments with charts.The model basically attempts to describe the relationship between the real quantity of goods and services supplied and demanded in an economy and the aggregate price level.
Model v osnovi opisuje odnos med ponudbo in povpraševanjem po realnih količinah blaga in storitev v gospodarstvu na eni strani ter skupno ravnjo cen na drugi strani.
Aggregate supply and demand – the short-run equilibrium The chart below illustrates aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD), with the price level on the vertical axis and real output on the horizontal axis.
Skupno povpraševanje in raven cen Če želimo razumeti krivuljo skupnega povpraševanja, moramo najprej preučiti, kaj se zgodi z realnimi nakupnimi odločitvami, ko se raven cen spremeni, vse ostale spremenljivke pa ostanejo enake.
Aggregate demand and the price level To understand the slope of aggregate demand, we have to analyse what happens to real expenditure decisions when the price level changes, assuming all other economic variables remain the same.
Kot kaže zgornji graf, je krivulja skupnega povpraševanja padajoča, kar je mogoče razložiti na dva načina.
It can be shown that the aggregate demand curve has a negative slope.
Prvi izhaja iz ponudbe in povpraševanja po realnem denarnem stanju.
One way to think about this is in terms of supply and demand for real money balances.
Če so cene višje, nominalna ponudba denarja pa fiksna, bodo ljudje zaznali, daje realno denarno stanje nižje, kar pomeni, da bodo lahko financirali le manjši delež transakcij.
If prices are higher but the nominal supply of money is fixed, people will experience lower real money balances and this implies that they can only finance a lower amount of transactions.
Če pa je nasprotno raven cen nižja, je realno denarno stanje višje, kar omogoča financiranje večjega obsega transakcij, to pa pomeni, da bo povpraševanje po realnem proizvodu večje.
Conversely, if the price level is lower, real money balances are higher, which in turn allows for a higher volume of transactions, meaning that there will be a greater demand for real output.
Skupna ponudba in povpraševanje – kratkoročno ravnovesje Graf prikazuje odnos med skupno ponudbo (AS) in skupnim povpraševanjem (AD). Raven cen je označena na navpični osi, realni proizvod pa na vodoravni.
CHART 1 AGGREGATE DEMAND AND SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY
GRAF 1: SKUPNO POVPRAŠEVANJE IN KRATKOROČNA SKUPNA PONUDBA
Aggregate supply and the price level in the short run As indicated by its name, aggregate supply deals with the supply of goods and services produced by firms.We first need to understand how the overall level of prices is related to the overall level of output in the short run, i.e. assuming that all other factors (production technology, nominal wages, etc.) remain the same.
Skupna ponudba in raven cen na kratki rok Kot poveže ime, skupna ponudba zajema ponudbo blaga in storitev, ki jih proizvajajo podjetja. Najprej moramo razumeti, kako je splošna raven cen povezana s splošno ravnjo proizvodnje na kratki rok, ponovno ob predpostavki, da vsi ostali dejavniki (proizvodna tehnologija, nominalne plače itd.) ostanejo nespremenjeni.
How does a change in the price level affect the real production or the real output of firms?
Kako sprememba ravni cen vpliva na realno proizvodnjo oz. na realni proizvod podjetij?
In essence, if nominal wages are given, a higher price level will lead to a decline in real wages.With lower real wages it becomes more profitable for firms to hire more workers and to increase production.
Če so nominalne plače dane, bo višja raven cen vodila v znižanje realnih plač. Z nižjimi realnimi plačami je za podjetja bolj donosno, če zaposlijo več delavcev in povečajo proizvodnjo.
In other words, real wages area key determinant of employment.
Če cene zrastejo, vsi ostali dejavniki, npr. tehnologija in nominalne plače, pa ostanejo nespremenjeni, bodo
With higher prices and all other factors, such as production technology and nominal wages, remaining unchanged, firms will thus raise employment and increase production.The short-run aggregate supply curve is therefore upward sloping.
Krivulja kratkoročne skupne ponudbe je zato naraščajoča.
The intersection of the two curves determines what economists call the “equilibrium”.
Presečišče obeh krivulj označuje točko, ki jo ekonomisti imenujejo »ravnovesje«.
The concept of equilibrium is crucial in economics.This is because, in such a situation, the wishes of both market sides coincide and, therefore, there is no tendency for further change.
Ta v ekonomski znanosti predstavlja enega ključnih konceptov. V tej točki želje obeh tržnih strani namreč sovpadejo, zato si nobena ne želi nadaljnjih sprememb.
In this case, the equilibrium determines the price level and the level of real output prevailing in an economy at the same time.
Ravnovesje zato označuje raven cen in raven realnega proizvoda, ki sta v določenem gospodarskem sistemu istočasno prevladujoča.
The positive impact of a higher price level on real output will only last as long as nominal and, therefore also real, wages remain unchanged.
proizvod bo trajal samo tako dolgo, dokler nominalne, in s tem tudi realne, plače ostanejo nespremenjene.
In reality, nominal wages are normally fixed for about one year, and in some cases for up to two years.
V praksi so nominalne plače navadno fiksirane za približno eno leto, v nekaterih primerih tudi do dveh let.
If workers or unions do not accept the lower real wages caused by higher inflation they will use the next wage negotiations to demand compensation in the form of higher wages.
Če delavci ali sindikati niso zadovoljni z nižjimi realnimi plačami zaradi inflacije, bodo v pogajanjih z delodajalci zahtevali nadomestilo za inflacijo v obliki višjih nominalnih plač.
If real wages return to the level they were at before the increase in the price level (and if production technology is unchanged), firms will no longer find it profitable to maintain production and employment at the higher level and will thus make cuts.
Če se realne plače vrnejo na raven pred zvišanjem ravni cen (in proizvodna tehnologija ostane enaka), podjetja z obstoječo ravnjo proizvodnje in zaposlenosti ne bodo več poslovala z dobičkom, zato se bodo odločila za krčenje proizvodnje.
In other words, if real wages cannot be reduced by higher inflation in the long run, employment and production will also be independent of price developments in the long run.
Povedano drugače, če realnih plač na dolgi rok ni mogoče znižati z višjo inflacijo, bosta tudi zaposlenost in proizvodnja na dolgi rok neodvisna od cenovnih gibanj.
This means that the long-term aggregate supply curve will be vertical.
To pomeni, da bo krivulja dolgoročne skupne ponudbe navpična.
What happens if the economy faces a state of disequilibrium?
Kaj se zgodi, če v gospodarstvu pride do neravnovesja? Vzemimo, daje raven cen višja od ravnovesne.
In such a situation aggregate supply is too high and aggregate demand too low compared with equilibrium.What will happen now?
V takšnih razmerah je glede na ravnovesno točko skupna ponudba previsoka, skupno povpraševanje pa prenizko. Kaj se bo zgodilo?
If the price level is higher than in equilibrium, buyers want to buy less than producers want to sell.
Če je raven cen nad ravnovesjem, bodo porabniki kupovali manj, kot proizvajalci želijo prodati.
Therefore, some suppliers will lower their prices, which in turn leads to an increase in aggregate demand.
Zato bodo nekateri znižali cene, skupno povpraševanje pa se bo zaradi tega povečalo.
At the same time, the lower prices will raise real wages (as nominal wages are fixed in the short run) and – as real wages represent a cost factor for firms – they will cut back production and tend to lower aggregate supply.
Hkrati se bodo zaradi nižjih cen povečale realne plače (saj so nominalne cene na kratki rok fiksne), podjetja pa bodo – ker realne plače zanje predstavljajo strošek – zmanjšale proizvodnjo in skušale zmanjšati skupno ponudbo.
This process will go on until an equilibrium situation is reached, i.e. a situation where the wishes and plans of buyers and sellers coincide at a certain price and output level.
Ta proces bo tekel tako dolgo, dokler ne doseže ravnovesne ravni oz. stanja, v katerem želje kupcev in proizvajalcev sovpadejo na določeni ravni cen in proizvodnje.
CHART 2 AGGREGATE DEMAND AND LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY
Dolgoročno ravnovesje GRAF 2: SKUPNO POVPRAŠEVANJE IN DOLGOROČNA SKUPNA PONUDBA
Factors affecting aggregate supply and aggregate demand According to the simple model we have been using, the combination of prices and real income that an economy is experiencing is obviously determined by the interplay of aggregate supply and demand.
Dejavniki, ki vplivajo na skupno ponudbo in povpraševanje Iz preprostega modela, ki smo ga uporabljali doslej, je razvidno, da kombinacijo cen in realnega proizvoda, ki obstaja v gospodarstvu, določa dinamični odnos med ponudbo in povpraševanjem.
This raises questions regarding the factors leading to shifts in the two curves.
Kateri dejavniki povzročajo premike teh dveh krivulj?
The factors leading to an increase in aggregate demand (i.e. a shift in AD outwards or to the right) include an increase in government expenditure, a reduction in taxes, a depreciation of the home currency and an increase in real wealth (e.g. higher stock and land prices), which in turn lead to higher private consumption and investment expenditure.
Skupno povpraševanje se lahko poveča (krivulja AD se premakne navzven oz. v desno) zaradi povečanja proračunskih odhodkov, znižanja davkov, depreciacije domače valute in povečanja realnega premoženja (npr. višje cene vrednostnih papirjev ali zemljišč). Ti dejavniki po drugi strani spodbujajo zasebno potrošnjo in naložbe.
Real output
Realni proizvod
For example, if firms expect higher future profits, they will tend to increase investment expenditures.
AS* v grafu 2) je točka, ki jo ekonomisti imenujejo »potencialna raven proizvoda«.
And if households expect higher real income as a result of higher expected labour productivity, consumer expenditure will increase. For this reason, an improvement in consumer and investor confidence is normally related to an increase in aggregate demand.
Ta predstavlja vrednost končnih izdelkov in storitev, ki so proizvedene ob polni izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti in z obstoječo tehnologijo in strukturnimi lastnostmi gospodarstva (npr. delovna zakonodaja, davčni in socialni sistem itd.).
The intersection of the AS curve with the horizontal axis (see AS* in Chart 2) is what economists call the potential level of output.The potential level of output represents the value of final goods and services produced when the economy’s resources are fully employed, given the current state of technology and structural features of the economy (such as labour market regulations, welfare and tax systems, etc.).
Zasebno potrošnjo in investicije lahko spodbujajo tudi pričakovanja. Če npr. podjetja pričakujejo, da se bodo potrošnja in investicije v prihodnosti povečali, utegnejo nameniti več sredstev za naložbe.
With regard to the impact of monetary policy, we can observe that an increase in money supply and the related lower real interest rates will cause aggregate demand to increase, thus shifting the demand curve to the right.11 If these variables change in the opposite direction, aggregate demand will fall (i.e. AD will shift to the left).
In če gospodinjstva zaradi višje pričakovane produktivnosti dela pričakujejo višje realne dohodke, bodo namenila več sredstev za potrošnjo. Zato je okrepitev zaupanja potrošnikov in investitorjev navadno povezana z večjim skupnim povpraševanjem.
So far we have discussed movements along the curves, with all other factors but prices and real output remaining unchanged.
Doslej smo obravnavali gibanja vzdolž obeh krivulj, ko vsi dejavniki razen cen in realnega proizvoda ostanejo nespremenjeni.