natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Notwithstanding the prevalence of upside risks to price stability, as identified by both its economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council took the view that, given the high level of uncertainty in the wake of the financial turmoil, additional information was needed before further conclusions for monetary policy could
Realni BDP se je v tretjem četrtletju 2007 v primerjavi s prejšnjim četrtletjem povečal za 0,8%, pri čemer je bilo glavno gonilo domače povpraševanje. Poleg tega so se razpoložljivi kazalniki zaupanja ob močni volatilnosti in prevrednotenju tveganja na fi nančnih trgih od začetka avgusta 2007 nekoliko znižali, vendar so ostali v glavnem na ravneh, ki
be drawn.
pa umirila pri vrednosti med 1,2% in 2,4%.
Consequently, the Governing Council decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged in the third quarter, while reaffirming that it would monitor all developments very closely, in particular those in financial markets, so as to ensure that risks to price stability did not materialise and that longerterm inflation expectations remained firmly anchored in line with price stability.
V primerjavi s projekcijami strokovnjakov ECB iz septembra 2007 se je razpon za leto 2008 premaknil navzgor, predvsem zaradi predvidenega gibanja cen nafte in hrane.
On the price side, the annual rate of HICP inflation reached levels above 3% at the turn of the year.
so nakazovale nadaljevanje gospodarske rasti v četrtem četrtletju, čeprav verjetno nekoliko počasneje kot v tretjem četrtletju.
Substantial increases in international oil and food prices, together with unfavourable base effects from energy prices, were the main factors driving this development.
Splošna ocena Sveta ECB je bila, da so gospodarski temelji euroobmočja še naprej trdni, pri čemer se dobičkonosnost ohranja na doseženi ravni, rast zaposlenosti pa je okrepljena.
In December 2007 Eurosystem staff projected inflation to rise to a range between 2.0% and 3.0% in 2008, before moderating to a range between 1.2% and 2.4% in 2009.
Decembra 2007 so strokovnjaki Eurosistema napovedali, da se bo rast realnega BDP v letu 2007 gibala med 2,4% in 2,8%, v letu 2008 med 1,5% in 2,5%, v letu 2009 pa med 1,6% in 2,6%.
Compared with the ECB staff projections of September 2007, the range for 2008 was shifted upwards, largely reflecting the assumed path of oil and food prices.
Medtem ko so bili razponi za leto 2008 nekoliko popravljeni navzdol, je novi razpon za leto 2007 ostal v zgornjem delu prejšnjega razpona.
In the fourth quarter incoming data supported the sustained nature of economic expansion in the euro area. Real GDP grew by 0.8%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 2007, with domestic demand as the main driver.
Na področju denarnih gibanj ni bilo veliko podatkov, ki bi kazali, da so finančni pretresi po avgustu 2007 močneje vplivali na dinamiko rasti širokega denarja in kreditov.
Moreover, available confidence indicators, while declining somewhat in the context of the high volatility and the repricing of risk in financial markets since early August 2007, generally remained at levels that pointed to ongoing economic growth in the fourth quarter, albeit probably at a more moderate pace than in the third quarter.
Rast bančnih posojil domačemu zasebnemu sektorju je v drugi polovici leta 2007 ostala okrepljena, kar pomeni, da ponudba posojil ni bila oslabljena.
Overall, it was the assessment of the Governing Council that the economic fundamentals of the euro area remained sound, with profitability sustained and employment growth robust.
Širša ocena podatkov o denarju je na splošno potrdila mnenje, da je osnovna stopnja denarne in kreditne rasti ostala močna.
In December 2007 Eurosystem staff projected real GDP growth to be in the range between 2.4% and 2.8% in 2007, between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2008, and between 1.6% and 2.6% in 2009.
Na podlagi tega je osnovni scenarij Sveta ECB, po katerem naj bi realni BDP rasel okrog trenda potencialne rasti, ostal nespremenjen tudi v letu 2008 in 2009.
While the ranges projected for 2008 were revised slightly downwards, the new range for 2007 remained in the upper part of the previous one.
H gospodarski rasti naj bi po pričakovanjih prispevali domača potrošnja in domače naložbe.
On the money side, there was little evidence that the financial turmoil since August 2007 had strongly influenced the dynamics of broad money and credit expansion.
Svet ECB je zato vnovič poudaril, da posebno pozorno spremlja pogajanja o plačah v euroobmočju. Poleg tega bi bilo treba preprečiti kakršno koli indeksacijo nominalnih plač z indeksom cen življenjskih potrebščin.
In fact, the growth of bank loans to the domestic private sector remained robust in the second half of 2007, suggesting that the supply of credit had not been impaired. Overall, a broad-based assessment of the monetary data supported the view that the underlying rate of money and credit expansion remained strong.
Druga tveganja so bila povezana z nadaljnjo rastjo cen nafte in kmetijskih proizvodov, zlasti če bi se nadaljeval trend naraščanja iz zadnjih nekaj mesecev leta 2007, in tudi z doslej nepričakovanim povečanjem nadzorovanih cen in posrednih davkov.
Against this background, the Governing Council’s main scenario of real GDP growing around its trend potential remained in place in 2008 and 2009.
Decembra 2007 so strokovnjaki Eurosistema napovedali, da se bo inflacija v letu 2008 zvišala na vrednost med 2,0% in 3,0%, v letu 2009
On the domestic side, both consumption and investment were expected to contribute to economic expansion.
Na podlagi tega je Svet ECB sklenil, da pusti ključne obrestne mere ECB v četrtem četrtletju 2007 nespremenjene.
At the same time, external demand was expected to continue to support euro area exports, provided that the global economy remained resilient, with the economic slowdown in the United States being partly offset by the sustained strength of emerging market economies.
Hkrati pa je jasno sporočil, da je ECB z denarno politiko pripravljena odločno in pravočasno ukrepati, da bi preprečila navzgor usmerjena tveganja za stabilnost cen, kakor to zahteva njen mandat v skladu s Pogodbo.
Prospects for economic growth in the euro area thus remained resilient, although the risks to this outlook remained on the downside. These risks related
Pripravljenost ukrepati je bila potrebna za zagotovitev, da se sekundarni učinki zaradi visokih stopenj infl acije in drugih tveganj za stabilnost cen ne bi uresničili ter da bi srednjeročna do dolgoročna inflacijska pričakovanja ostala trdno zasidrana v skladu s stabilnostjo cen.
2MONETARY, FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
2DENARNA, FINANČNAIN GOSPODARSKA GIBANJA
2.1 THE GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT particularly food, which was only partly offset by a decline in metals prices.
2.1 SVETOVNO MAKROEKONOMSKO OKOLJE hrane, kar je le delno odtehtalo znižanje cen kovin.
Agricultural prices continued to be affected by strong demand from emerging economies, developments in the production of biofuels and poor harvests in some countries.
Na cene kmetijskih proizvodov so še naprej močno vplivali veliko povpraševanje v nastajajočih gospodarstvih, gibanja v proizvodnji biogoriva in slabe letine v nekaterih državah.
In view of the higher weight of food in their price index, inflationary pressures have been even more pronounced in emerging markets than in industrialised countries.
Glede na večjo utež hrane v indeksu cen so bili inflacijski pritiski na nastajajočih trgih
Chart 2 Main developments in major industrialised economies euro area United States
Graf 2 Glavna gibanja v večjih industrijsko razvitih državah euroobmočje
(quarter-on-quarter percentage changes; quarterly data)
(medčetrtletne spremembe v odstotkih; četrtletni podatki)
(consumer prices; annual percentage changes; monthly data)
(cene življenjskih potrebščin; medletne spremembe v odstotkih; mesečni podatki)
Sources: National data, BIS, Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Eurostat data are used for the euro area and the United Kingdom; national data are used for the United States and Japan.
Viri: Nacionalni podatki, Banka za mednarodne poravnave, Eurostat in izračuni ECB.1) Podatki Eurostata se uporabljajo za euroobmočje in Združeno kraljestvo; za ZDA in Japonsko se uporabljajo nacionalni podatki.
GDP figures have been seasonally adjusted.2) HICP for the euro area and the United Kingdom; CPI for the United States and Japan.
Podatki o BDP so desezonirani.2) HICP za euroobmočje in Združeno kraljestvo; CPI za ZDA in Japonsko.
Following a period of broadly contained global inflationary pressures in the year to September 2007, headline inflation in most economies rose strongly towards the end of 2007 (see Chart 2).
Po obdobju večinoma omejenih svetovnih inflacijskih pritiskov, ki je trajalo do septembra 2007, se je skupna inflacija proti koncu leta 2007 v večini gospodarstev močno dvignila (glej graf 2).
In the OECD countries, headline consumer price inflation increased to 3.3% in December 2007. This was mainly attributable to higher commodity prices and unfavourable base effects.
V državah OECD se je skupna inflacija cen življenjskih potrebščin decembra 2007 dvignila na 3,3% predvsem zaradi višjih cen primarnih surovin in neugodnih baznih učinkov.
Amid tight market conditions, oil prices continued to rise strongly in the course of 2007.
Ob zaostrenih razmerah na trgu so cene nafte leta 2007 še naprej močno rasle.
In addition, non-oil commodity prices continued to increase strongly in the first half of 2007 and subsequently remained rather volatile at elevated levels.
Poleg tega so cene drugih primarnih surovin brez nafte v prvi polovici leta še naprej močno rasle, nato pa so precej nihale na visokih ravneh.
These latter developments reflected a strong rise in agricultural prices,
Slednje je bilo posledica močnega dviga cen kmetijskih proizvodov, zlasti
the financial sector, where banks had to make substantial write-downs.
še izrazitejši kot v industrijskih državah.
Excluding food and energy, however, consumer price inflation remained contained, standing at 2.1% in December in the OECD countries.
Brez hrane in energentov je inflacija cen življenjskih potrebščin ostala omejena in je decembra v državah OECD znašala 2,1%.
In the United States, the annual rate of change in the CPI for 2007 was 2.8%, down from 3.2% the year before.
V ZDA je medletna stopnja spremembe indeksa cen življenjskih potrebščin v letu 2007 zanašala 2,8% v primerjavi s 3,2% prejšnje leto.
Consumer price inflation rose in the first half of the year on account of significant increases in energy prices and an acceleration in the owner-equivalent rent component of the CPI.
Inflacija cen življenjskih potrebščin se je v prvi polovici leta zvišala zaradi močnega dviga cen energentov in pospeška v skupini najemnin v cenovnem indeksu.
After being somewhat muted during the summer months, inflationary pressures subsequently increased, with the year-on-year change in the CPI peaking at 4.3% in November.
Po zatišju v poletnih mesecih so se inflacijski pritiski nato povečali, saj je novembra medletna sprememba indeksa cen življenjskih potrebščin dosegla vrhunec pri 4,3%.
This was in particular attributable to strong base effects and increases in energy and food prices towards the end of the year.
To je bilo zlasti posledica močnih baznih učinkov ter povečanja cen energentov in hrane proti koncu leta.
The annual rate of inflation excluding energy and food also showed signs of renewed acceleration in the last months of the year.
Tudi medletna stopnja infl acije brez energentov in hrane je v zadnjih mesecih leta kazala znake vnovičnega pospeševanja.
In 2007 as a whole, it stood at 2.3%, 0.2 percentage point lower than in 2006.
V celotnem letu 2007 je znašala 2,3%, kar je 0,2 odstotne točke manj kot leta 2006.
In the United States, the annual rate of growth in real GDP for 2007 as a whole was 2.2%, which was 0.7 percentage point below the rate in 2006.
V ZDA je letna stopnja rasti realnega BDP v letu 2007 znašala 2,2%, kar je 0,7 odstotne točke manj kot v letu 2006.
The housing market correction, which had already begun in 2006, remained a major drag on growth and shaved almost a full percentage point off GDP growth through decreased residential investment.
Popravek na nepremičninskem trgu, ki se je začel že leta 2006, je ostal glavna zavora rasti in je z zmanjšanjem stanovanjskih naložb znižal rast BDP za skoraj celo odstotno točko.
In addition, the subprime mortgagerelated financial market turbulence intensified from summer 2007 onwards, and contributed to curbing growth towards the end of the year.
Poleg tega so se pretresi na fi nančnih trgih, povezani z drugorazrednimi hipotekarnimi posojili, od poletja 2007 naprej stopnjevali in prispevali k zaviranju rasti proti koncu leta.
In the course of 2007 economic activity was volatile, with GDP growth falling below its potential rate in the first quarter, surging above it in the second and third quarters, and declining again in the fourth quarter.
Gospodarska aktivnost je leta 2007 nihala, pri čemer je BDP v prvem četrtletju zaostajal za potencialno stopnjo rasti, jo presegel v drugem in tretjem četrtletju, v zadnjem četrtletju pa se je spet znižal.
Amid this volatility, private consumption growth remained surprisingly strong, despite high energy prices and the housing and financial market turbulence, mainly owing to continued employment and income growth, which, however, deteriorated significantly towards the end of the year.
Ob takšnih nihanjih je rast zasebne potrošnje ostala presenetljivo visoka kljub visokim cenam energentov ter pretresom na stanovanjskih in fi nančnih trgih, predvsem zaradi nadaljevanja rasti zaposlenosti in dohodkov, ki pa se je ob koncu leta močno poslabšala.
In addition, nonresidential business investment growth was brisk, supported by high levels of corporate profitability and, during the first half of the year, favourable financing conditions.
Poleg tega smo bili priča močni rasti nestanovanjskih poslovnih naložb, ki jo je spodbujala visoka dobičkonosnost podjetij in v prvi polovici leta tudi ugodni pogoji financiranja.
The net trade contribution turned positive in 2007 for the fi first time since 1995, reflecting buoyant global growth, as well as the depreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar.
Prispevek neto trgovinske menjave je bil leta 2007 prvič po letu 1995 pozitiven, kar je bilo posledica živahne svetovne rasti in depreciacije realnega efektivnega tečaja ameriškega dolarja.
These factors also explain the decline in the current account deficit from 6.2% of GDP in 2006 to 5.5% in the first three quarters of 2007.
Ti dejavniki tudi pojasnjujejo zmanjšanje primanjkljaja tekočega računa s 6,2% BDP v letu 2006 na 5,5% v prvih treh četrtletjih 2007.
The narrowing of the goods deficit accounted for the bulk of the improvement.
Glavnino izboljšanja je predstavljalo znižanje blagovnega primanjkljaja.
In the first half of 2007 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%.
Zvezni odbor za odprti trg (Federal Open Market Committee) pri ameriškem sistemu centralnih bank (Federal Reserve System) je v prvi polovici leta 2007 svojo ciljno obrestno mero ohranjal nespremenjeno pri 5,25%.
After the financial market turbulence began to heighten in late summer, the Federal Reserve made a series of rate cuts in September and October by a total of 75 basis points.
Ko so se pretresi na fi nančnih trgih ob koncu poletja začeli krepiti, je odbor septembra in oktobra obrestne mere zaporedoma znižal za skupno 75 bazičnih točk.
After one additional 25 basis point cut made in December the target rate stood at 4.25% at the end of the year, a full percentage point below its January level.
Po nadaljnjem znižanju za 25 bazičnih točk v decembru je ciljna obrestna mera ob koncu leta znašala 4,25%, torej za celo odstotno točko manj kot januarja.
The Federal Reserve also used other monetary policy tools.
Ameriška centralna banka je uporabila tudi druga orodja denarne politike.
In August it cut the spread between the federal funds and discount rates from 100 basis points to 50 basis points.
Avgusta je znižala razmik med obrestnimi merami za medbančna posojila (federal funds) in diskontnimi obrestnimi merami s 100 na 50 bazičnih točk.
On 12 December it announced additional changes to its monetary policy tools.
Dodatne spremembe v orodjih denarne politike so bile najavljene 12. decembra.
The Federal Reserve established a temporary Term Auction Facility to auction term funds to depository institutions with longer maturities and looser collateral requirements than is the case in open market operations.
Ameriška centralna banka je uvedla začasno avkcijo v ameriških dolarjih (Term Auction Facility) za ponudbo terminskih sredstev z daljšo zapadlostjo in širšimi zahtevami glede zavarovanja kot pri operacijah odprtega trga.
At the same time it agreed on temporary liquidity-providing operations with the ECB and the Swiss National Bank to provide US dollars for use in their jurisdictions.
Hkrati se je z ECB in švicarsko centralno banko dogovorila o začasnih operacijah zagotavljanja likvidnosti z namenom zagotoviti ameriške dolarje na območju pristojnosti teh centralnih bank.
The financial market turbulence, which originated from increased delinquency and foreclosure rates for US subprime mortgages, heightened in the summer.
Pretresi na fi nančnih trgih, ki so izvirali iz povečanja nerednosti odplačil in prisilnih izvršb pri drugorazrednih hipotekarnih posojilih v ZDA, so se poleti okrepili.
However, its effects on the US real economy remained fairly limited during most of 2007 and were mainly related to the availability and price of loans, especially nonconforming mortgages.
Njihov vpliv na realno gospodarstvo ZDA pa je ostal večino leta 2007 precej omejen in je bil v glavnem povezan z razpoložljivostjo in ceno posojil, še posebno neskladnih hipotek.
As regards fiscal policy, the federal budget deficit declined in the fiscal year 2007 compared with 2006. This was mainly the result of increased
Sicer so se pretresi pojavljali predvsem na denarnih trgih in v finančnem sektorju, kjer so banke morale izvesti izdatne odpise.
personal tax revenues and reduced outlays.
posledica višjih prihodkov iz dohodnine in nižjih izdatkov.
According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit stood at 1.2% of GDP in the fiscal year 2007.
Po ocenah kongresnega proračunskega urada je zvezni proračunski primanjkljaj v fiskalnem letu 2007 znašal 1,2% BDP.
the quantitative easing policy in March 2006, the Bank of Japan decided in February 2007 to raise its target for the uncollateralised overnight call rate from 0.25% to 0.50%.
gič po marcu 2006, ko je opustila kvantitativno ohlapno politiko, sklenila zvišati svojo ciljno izklicno obrestno mero za nezavarovane vloge čez noč z 0,25% na 0,50%.
Growth in emerging economies remained solid and accounted for a significant share of world GDP growth in 2007, as mature economies’ expansion weakened (see Chart 3).
V nastajajočih gospodarstvih je rast ostala okrepljena in je predstavljala velik delež rasti svetovnega BDP v letu 2007, medtem ko se je rast razvitih gospodarstev zmanjšala (glej graf 3).
Some inflationary pressure surfaced in a number of countries.
V številnih državah so se pojavili določeni infl a-cijski pritiski.
Economic activity remained robust in emerging Asia.
, in je ostal že četrto leto zapored okrog potencialne rasti.
Notwithstanding a less favourable external environment in the second half of the year, strong domestic demand helped to support the growth momentum, notably in the largest economies of the region.
Medtem ko je še naprej močan izvoz podpiral gospodarsko aktivnost, se je prispevek domačega povpraševanja k BDP zmanjšal.
Inflationary pressures remained contained in most economies owing, in part, to the tightening in monetary policy implemented in many economies.
Na izvozno aktivnost sta ugodno vplivala efektivni tečaj japonskega jena in močno zunanje povpraševanje, zlasti iz Azije.
One exception was China, where inflation rose during the year.
Rast zasebne potrošnje, ki je leta 2006 znašala 2,0%, se je znižala na 1,
Developments appeared to be more mixed in foreign exchange markets.
Gospodarska aktivnost je ostala močna v rastočih azijskih gospodarstvih.
Some emerging Asian currencies – such as the Thai baht or the Indian rupee – appreciated substantially in effective terms
Kljub manj ugodnemu zunanjemu okolju v drugi polovici leta je močno domače povpraševanje spodbujalo dinamiko rasti, zlasti v največjih gospodarstvih regije.
In Japan, the economic recovery continued in 2007, although domestic demand and in particular private consumption weakened.
Inflacijski pritiski so ostali v večini gospodarstev omejeni, delno zaradi zaostrovanja denarne politike v mnogih državah.
Growth in real activity moderated in 2007, with real GDP growing by 2.1% after 2.4% in 2006, remaining around potential for the fourth consecutive year.
Izjema je bila Kitajska, kjer se je inflacija med letom zvišala.
While economic activity remained supported by the continuing strength of exports, the contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth decreased.
Zaradi dobre makroekonomske uspešnosti regije se je vrednotenje lokalnih trgov lastniškega kapitala ob velikih nihanjih še naprej povečevalo.
Export activity benefited from developments in the effective exchange rate of the Japanese yen and sound external demand, especially from Asia.
Gibanja na deviznih trgih so bila bolj raznolika.
Private consumption growth declined to 1.4% after 2.0% in 2006, although employment conditions remained favourable overall.
Vrednost valute nekaterih nastajajočih azijskih gospodarstev (npr. tajski bat in indijska rupija) je zaradi močnih kapitalskih prilivov efektivno močno zrasla, medtem ko je na splošno ugodni.
Moreover, despite export momentum, private investment growth slowed down.
Poleg tega se je rast zasebnih naložb kljub dinamiki izvoza upočasnila.
This reflected a decrease in residential investment driven by a contraction in construction activity following the revision of the Building Standards Law, and a slowdown in nonresidential investment driven by some moderation in business confidence, especially among small and medium-sized firms.
To se je odražalo v zmanjšanju stanovanjskih naložb, ki je bilo posledica krčenja gradbene dejavnosti po spremembi zakona o gradbenih standardih, in v zmanjšanju nestanovanjskih naložb, ki je bilo posledica nekoliko manjšega zaupanja podjetij, zlasti pri malih in srednje velikih podjetjih.
Despite moderating economic conditions, bank lending continued to increase in 2007, although at a slower pace than in 2006, amid increased uncertainties in the global financial environment.
Kljub umirjenim gospodarskim razmeram se je bančno kreditiranje v letu 2007 ob večji negotovosti na svetovnem finančnem prizorišču še naprej povečevalo, čeprav nekoliko počasneje kot leta 2006.
Chart 3 Geographical contributions to world GDP growth
Graf 3 Geografska razčlenitev prispevkov k rasti svetovnega BDP
(percentages) selected mature economies 1)BRIC 2) rest of the world
BRIC 2)preostali svet
Source: ECB staff calculations.Note: Estimates based on the IMF World Economic Outlook database and forecasts of October 2007 with the revised purchasing power parity exchange rates.1) The United States, Japan and the euro area.2) Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Vir: Izračuni strokovnjakov ECB.Opomba: Ocene na podlagi podatkovne zbirke MDS World Economic Outlook in napovedi iz oktobra 2007 z revidiranimi teparitete kupne moči.1) ZDA, Japonska in euroobmočje. 2) Brazilija, Rusija, Indija in Kitajska.
Consumer price inflation remained subdued in Japan in 2007, reflecting in particular subdued wage growth.
Inflacija cen življenjskih potrebščin je v letu 2007 na Japonskem ostala umirjena, zlasti zaradi umirjene rasti plač.