natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Source: ECB.Notes: The reporting sector comprises MFIs excluding the Eurosystem and central government.
Vir: ECB.Opomba: Poročevalski sektor vključuje MFI brez Eurosistema in centralne države.
M3 deposits include shortterm deposits and repurchase agreements.
Vloge M3 obsegajo kratkoročne vloge in repo pogodbo.
of decline of holdings of general government securities stood at 5.0% in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Medletna stopnja zmanjšanja imetij vrednostnih papirjev širše države je v zadnjem četrtletju 2007 znašala 5,0%.
This development has – with some brief exceptions – been observed since mid-2006 and is typical of periods with rising shortterm interest rates and funding costs.
Takšno gibanje je bilo mogoče (razen določenih kratkih izjem) opaziti od sredine leta 2006 in je značilno za obdobja, ko se povečujejo kratkoročne obrestne mere in stroški financiranja. financiranja.
participants to prefer secured to unsecured interbank lending.
Znotraj visoke rasti posojil zasebnemu sektorju so se gibanja v posameznih sektorjih razlikovala.
In addition, this strengthening is also related in part to some investment funds’ need to maintain larger cash buffers and, in the fourth quarter of 2007, to additional deposit holdings in the context of the acquisition, through a non-monetary financial intermediary, of a euro area MFI by several other MFIs.
Medtem ko se je medletna stopnja rasti posojil gospodinjstvom leta 2007 umirila v skladu s trendom, ki ga opažamo od začetka leta 2006, pa so se medletne stopnje rasti posojil finančnim in nefinančnim družbam povečale.
The annual growth rate of MFI credit to the private sector strengthened gradually over the period 2004-05, before stabilising at a high level in 2006.
Medletna stopnja rasti posojil MFI zasebnemu sektorju se je v obdobju 2004-05 postopno krepila, leta 2006 pa stabilizirala na visoki ravni.
It remained robust in 2007, hovering at around 11.5%.
Leta 2007 je ostala močna in se je gibala na ravni okrog 11,5%.
Loans granted to the private sector remained the dominant form of credit granted by MFIs in 2007, while the importance of MFIs’ purchases of securities other than shares increased.
Posojila zasebnemu sektorju so še naprej predstavljala prevladujočo obliko posojil MFI v letu 2007, čeprav se je povečal pomen nakupov vrednostnih papirjev, razen delnic, s strani MFI.
CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR GREW VIGOROUSLYAfter strengthening in both 2004 and 2005,the annual growth rate of MFI credit to euroarea residents stabilised in 2006.
Umiritev medletne stopnje rasti posojil gospodinjstvom je bila predvsem posledica znižanja medletne stopnje rasti stanovanjskih posojil, na kar je vplivala upočasnitev rasti cen nepremičnin in aktivnosti na nepremičninskem trgu v številnih gospodarstvih euroobmočja ter postopno zviševanje hipotekarnih obrestnih mer v euroobmočju v zadnjih nekaj četrtletjih.
The annual rate
I zasebnemu
The annual growth rate of MFI lending to the private sector stood at 11.1% in the fourth quarter of 2007, having hovered at this high level since mid-2006 with strong economic activity and favourable credit standards supporting loan growth.
I ne fi finančnim sektorju je v četrtem četrtletju leta 2007 znašala 11,1%, potem ko se je od sredine leta 2006 gibala okrog te visoke ravni, saj so močna gospodarska družbam se je leta 2007 povečala in je glede na gibanja v zadnjih treh desetletjih dosegla zelo
The strength of lending to the private sector masks divergent developments across the individual sectors.
bančnih posojil prek elektronskih trgovalnih plat- form v sektorju M
However, this evidence is consistent with the more restrictive supply conditions indicated by the two bank lending surveys for the third and fourth quarters, which point to significant tightening of credit standards applied to the corporate sector, especially in the case of loans to larger firms and loans with longer maturities.
I zaseb- nemu nefinančnemu sektorju v okolju fi nančnih pretresov pojavilo vprašanje, ali je bil izkazani tok posojil gospodinjstvom in ne fi finančnim družbam izkrivljen zaradi upravljanja bilanc stanja bank ob soočanju s pretresi. Razpoložljivi podatki o obsegu posojil, ki so bili odstranjeni iz bilanc sta- nja M
At the same time, non-financial corporations may have been able to continue borrowing through approved lines of credit under conditions agreed prior to the turmoil.
, kažejo, da so lahko banke v drugi polo- vici leta 2007 še naprej odstranjevale posojila iz svojih bilanc stanja, čeprav nekoliko počasneje, kar pomeni, da je bil tok posojil M
The moderation in the annual growth rate of loans to households was driven mainly by the falling annual growth rate of lending for house purchase, which reflected the slowdown observed in house price growth and housing market activity in a number of euro area economies and the gradual increase seen in mortgage rates throughout the euro area over the past few quarters.
tavljale posojila zasebnemu sektorju s povečevanjem imetij vrednostnih papirjev, ki jih je izdal podjetniški sektor, predvsem prek nakupov dolžniških vrednostnih papirjev namesto delnic in drugega lastniškega kapitala. Glavnina vrednostnih papirjev, kupljenih leta 2007, je imela dolgo zapadlost.
The annual growth rate of loans to OFIs strengthened markedly in the course of 2007.
Tako so velike količine posojil v letu 2007 bolj odražale tok fi nanciranja od bank k nefi finančnim tekarne trge.
In the second half of the year demand for loans reflected, for instance, the takeover of an MFI and investment funds’ portfolio management, as well as demand related to the turmoil resulting from the drawing-down of credit lines to conduits and structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and MFIs’ increased preference for secured interbank lending through electronic trading platforms.
Vendar je tudi mogo če, da so monetarne finančne institucije ob fi nančnih pretresih kupile instrumente, povezane s predhodno listinjenimi posojili, in tako ponovno umestile nekatere portfelje posojil v svoje poslovne bilance.
The annual growth rate of MFI loans to non-financial corporations increased in 2007, reaching a very high level by the standards of the past three decades.
I (brez kapitala in rezerv) do nedenarnega lage, da so pretresi leta 2007 izrazito vplivali na ponudbo bančnih kreditov.
In the first half of the year demand for loans was supported by strong economic growth and merger and acquisition (M & A) activity, as well as favourable credit conditions.
Kljub temu je to skladno z zaostrenimi pogoji ponudbe, kar kažeta dve anketi o bančnih posojilih (za tretje in četrto četrtletje), ki izkazujeta občutno zaostritev kreditnih standardov za podjetniški sektor, zlasti za posojila velikim podjetjem in posojila z daljšo zapadlostjo.
In the second half of 2007, against the background of the financial turmoil, the large quantities of MFI loans to the private non-financial sector raised the question of whether the reported flow of loans to households and non-financial corporations had been distorted by banks’ balance sheet management in the face of the turmoil.
Medletna stopnja rasti posojil drugim fi finančnim posrednikom se je leta 2007 izrazito pove čala. V prvi polovici leta je posojila M
The information available on the volume of loans removed from MFI balance sheets suggested that banks had been able to continue to remove loans from their balance sheets in the second half of 2007, albeit at a somewhat lower rate, suggesting that the flow of MFI loans to this sector continued to be understated by the data reported.
I tem subjektom dar te vrednosti zakrivajo dejstvo, da se je stopnja rasti krepila do sredine leta 2007, zatem pa se je umirila, pri čemer je podoben vzorec mogoče opaziti pri dolgoročnejših vlogah in dolžniških vredno- spodbujalo predvsem povpraševanje investicijskih skladov in povpraševanje po premostitvenem stnih papirjih M
In 2007 MFIs provided credit to the private sector by increasing their holdings of securities issued by the corporate sector, especially through purchases of debt securities rather than through the acquisition of shares and other equity.
preferencami nedenarnega sektorja (tj. prednost imajo krajše ročnosti) in je lahko delno posledica umirjanja dinamike listinjenja, ki je pogosto povezano z ustvarjanjem dolgoročnih vlog.
Additionally, in late 2007 MFIs purchased sizeable holdings of debt securities in the context of a takeover of an MFI executed by a financing financing
Precejšnji prilivi kapitala v prvem četrtletju leta 2007 so povzročili, da je pri-
Thus, the large quantities of loans in 2007 appeared to reflect the flow of financing from banks to non-financial corporations and households, rather than re-intermediation triggered by the financial turmoil, which probably accounted for a small part of the expansion in MFI loans.
V drugi polovici leta pa je na povpraševanje po posojilih med drugim vplival prevzem upravljanja portfelja monetarne finančne institucije in investicijskih skladov ter povpraševanje, povezano s pretresi, ki je bilo posledica črpanja kreditnih linij prehodnim družbam (conduits) in strukturiranim investicijskim družbam (structured investment vehicles) ter vse večja uporaba zavarovanih med- liv neto tuje aktive sektorja M
The net annual inflow then moderated over the remainder of the year, reaching €17 billion in December, as investment positions ceased to be profitable and were therefore partly unwound.
, saj so udeleženci neto priliv se je v preostanku leta umiril in je decembra dosegel 17 milijard EU
Among the other counterparts of M3, the annual growth rate of MFI longerterm financial liabilities (excluding capital and reserves) held by the money-holding sector moderated to stand at 7.8% in December 2007, having stood at 9.7% at the end of 2006.
- na finančnem trgu videli ugodne naložbene priložnosti v euroobmočju zaradi nizke volatilno- bene pozicije niso bile več dobičkonosne in so se zato delno zaprle. (Podrobna analiza gibanja sti in obsežne likvidnosti fi finančnega trga. Letni
MFI NET EXTERNAL ASSETS AND THEIR IMPACT ON MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
NETO TUJA AKTIVA SEKTORJA MFI IN NJEN VPLIV NA DENARNA GIBANJA
MFI net external assets (left-hand scale)M3 (right-hand scale)
3 (lestvica na desni strani)
The net external asset position is one of the counterparts of the broad monetary aggregate M3 and at times plays an important role in accounting for monetary developments in the euro area.
Stanje neto tuje aktive je ena od protipostavk širšega denarnega agregata M3 in ima včasih pomembno vlogo pri razlagi denarnih gibanj v euroobmočju.
By contrast with most of 2006, pronounced movements were observed in 2007 in the annual flow of the net external asset position, with a strong build-up at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007 and a subsequent unwinding in the second half of the year.
V nasprotju z večino leta 2006 so bili letni tokovi neto tuje aktive v letu 2007 izraziti, z močnim dvigom na koncu leta 2006 in na začetku leta 2007 in poznejšim znižanjem v drugi polovici leta.
While these movements were mirrored by the pattern of annual flows into M3 between October 2006 and April 2007, in the period between May and October 2007 this ceased to be the case (see Chart A).
Medtem ko so se ta gibanja odražala v dinamiki letnih tokov v M3 med oktobrom 2006 in aprilom 2007, pa to za obdobje od maja do oktobra 2007 ni bilo več značilno (glej graf A). V tem okvirju predstavljamo pregled gibanja neto tuje aktive M
This box reviews the developments in MFI net external assets and investigates possible explanations.
I in preu čujemo možno razlago zanje.
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I vplivajo na M
If this transaction is conducted using accounts held at an MFI, it implies a decline in the net external assets of the MFI sector, as the euro area credit institution in charge of the transaction either decreases its claims on its correspondent bank in the United States or grants a deposit to the US correspondent bank.
, je odvisno od tega, kako nedenarni sektorji euroobmočja (gospodinjstva ali ne fi finančne družbe) fi financirajo svoje transak- cije s tujino.1
On the other hand, if the transaction is financed by means of a loan granted to the household by the bank, there will be no impact on M3, but a change in the composition of the counterparts of M3.2
, to pomeni znižanje neto tuje čja, ki je odgovorna za transakcijo, bodisi aktive sektorja M
An important tool for investigating the factors underlying developments in the MFI net external asset position is the “monetary presentation of the balance of payments”.
, saj kreditna institucija euroobmo zniža svoje terjatve do koresponden čne banke v Z
The monetary presentation of the balance of payments suggests that the main source of the upward movement in the MFI net external asset position between late 2006 and spring 2007 was portfolio investment in euro area assets – particularly in debt securities, but also in equities (see Chart B).3
Če se po eni strani nakup financira iz vlog čez noč, ki jih ima gospodinjstvo v svoji kreditni instituciji, bo to zaviralno vplivalo na M
Debt securities
, ker se komponenta
Foreign investors’ portfolio investment in euro area debt securities was strong as of mid-2006, with annual flows reaching a new high in April 2007 and remaining elevated until the third quarter of 2007
Če se po drugi strani transakcija fi financira s posojilom, ki ga banka odobri gospodinj-
1 When analysing monetary developments, it should be borne in mind that only transactions between euro area money holders on the one hand and banks and noneuro area residents on the other have a direct impact on the money stock.
1 Pri analizi denarnih gibanj je treba upoštevati, da na obseg denarja neposredno vplivajo le transakcije med imetniki denarja v euroobmočju na eni strani ter bankami in nerezidenti euroobmočja na drugi strani.
A transaction between euro area nonMFIs simply represents the circulation of money within the money-holding sector, with no impact on the total money stock in the euro area.
Transakcija med drugimi institucijami euroobmočja razen monetarnih fi nančnih institucij predstavlja le obtok denarja znotraj nedenarnega sektorja brez vpliva na skupen obseg denarja v euroobmočju.
This is the case where private transactions are financed by an exchange of shares.2 It should be emphasised that some transactions which affect MFI net external assets have no impact whatsoever on either money or credit.
To se zgodi, ko se zasebne transakcije financirajo z izmenjavo delnic.2 Poudariti je treba, da nekatere transakcije, ki vplivajo na neto tujo aktivo MFI, nimajo nobenega vpliva ne na denar ne na kredite.
For example, a credit institution selling a euro area government bond to a non-resident will affect MFI net external assets (upwards) and credit to general government (downwards), without any impact on M3.3 For additional information regarding the monetary presentation of the euro area balance of payments, see the box entitled “Monetary presentation of the euro area balance of payments” in the June 2003 issue of the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin.
Kreditna institucija na primer, ki proda državno obveznico euroobmočja nerezidentu, bo vplivala na neto tujo aktivo MFI (navzgor) in na kredite širše opredeljeni državi (navzdol), ne bo pa vplivala na M3.
Chart C Composition of portfolio investment flows
Graf C Sestava tokov portfeljskih naložb
Chart B Composition of capital flows of the money-holding sector and MFI net external assets
Graf B Sestava kapitalskih tokov nedenarnega sektorja in neto tuja aktiva MFI
(annual flows in EUR billions) portfolio investment in debt securities abroadportfolio investment in debt securities in the euro areaportfolio investment in equity abroadportfolio investment in equity in the euro area net portfolio investment in equitynet portfolio investment in debt securitiesnet direct investment MFI net external assets
(letni tokovi v milijardah EUR) portfeljske naložbe v dolžniške vrednostne papirje v tujiniportfeljske naložbe v dolžniške vrednostne papirje neto portfeljske naložbe v lastniški kapitalneto portfeljske naložbe v dolžniške vrednostne papirjeneto neposredne naložbe neto tuja aktiva M
Equities and foreign direct investment
ECBLetno poročilo2007
The net external asset position of the euro area MFI sector has seen strong movements since late 2006, with net annual inflows in March 2007 that exceeded those observed in the period of portfolio shifts from 2001 to 2003.
Hkratna rast bruto tuje aktive in pasive je lahko tudi posledica večje finančne integracije.
Developments in the net external asset position up to spring 2007 had a visible impact on the pattern of M3 growth, at least from an accounting perspective.
Tako se lahko transakcije znotraj sektorja MFI, ko na primer MFI v eni državi euroobmočja financira posojanje MFI v drugi državi euroobmočja, vedno bolj kanalizirajo prek fi nančnih centrov s sedežem zunaj euroobmočja.
Transactions between the euro area money-holding sector and the rest of the world are likely to increase in scope with the worldwide integration of financial markets.
Druga možnost je, da rezidenčne kreditne institucije, npr. skladi denarnega trga, delujejo izključno v imenu svojih matičnih družb zunaj euroobmočja.
Given the multiple driving forces and originators of such transactions, a detailed assessment of developments in net external assets in the context of the ECB’s monetary analysis will be an important challenge.
Če te institucije prejemajo svoja sredstva samo iz tujine in jih tudi vlagajo samo na domači trg matične družbe, je njihovo celotno poslovanje prikazano le v tuji aktivi in pasivi konsolidirane bilance stanja sektorja MFI euroobmočja.
In the first half of the year this was in line with the increases in key ECB interest rates.
V prvi polovici leta je bilo to v skladu z zvišanjem ključnih obrestnih mer ECB.
Further significant increases in unsecured money market rates were seen in the second half of the year, following the turbulence in money and fi financial markets.
V drugi polovici leta pa se je po pretresih na denarnih in fi nančnih trgih pojavila nadaljnja občutna rast obrestnih mer na nezavarovanem denarnem trgu.
The spread between unsecured and secured money market rates widened at all maturities with the exception of the very short term.
Razlika med obrestnimi merami na nezavarovanem in zavarovanem denarnem trgu se je povečala za vse ročnosti, razen pri zelo kratkoročnih.
These spreads, despite having declined, remained at elevated levels in early 2008.
Te razlike so ostale velike tudi na začetku leta 2008, čeprav so se nekoliko zmanjšale.
9 August onwards owing to the tensions in money and financial markets following concerns about banks’ exposure to losses resulting from US subprime mortgages and complex derivative instruments (see Chart 10). These rates reached peak levels in mid-December, when the underlying tensions in the interbank market were exacerbated by uncertainties related to the year-end.
Z občutnim zvišanjem obrestnih mer na nezavarovanem denarnem trgu se je razlika med obrestnimi merami na nezavarovanem in zavarovanem denarnem trgu občutno povečala, zlasti pri ročnostih do enega meseca in daljših
With the substantial increases seen in unsecured money market interest rates, the corresponding spread between unsecured and secured money market rates widened significantly, particularly at maturities of one month and longer (see Chart 11).
( glej graf 11).
The Governing Council raised the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points in both March and June 2007, with the marginal lending rate, the minimum bid rate and the deposit rate reaching 5%, 4% and 3% respectively (see Chart 1).
Svet ECB je marca in junija zvišal ključne obrestne mere ECB za 25 bazičnih točk, pri čemer je obrestna mera mejnega posojila, izklicna obrestna mera in obrestna mera mejnega depozita dosegla
In the remainder of 2007 and early 2008 the key ECB interest rates remained unchanged.
% ( glej graf 1). V preostanku leta 2007 in na začetku leta 2008 se ključne obrestne mere ECB niso spreminjale.
After rising steadily in the first half of the year in line with expectations of further increases in key ECB interest rates, unsecured money market rates rose strongly from fi final months of the year, with the spread between
Čeprav se je ta razlika nato zmanjšala in je 29. februarja 2008 znašala 43 bazičnih točk, je bila še naprej velika v primerjavi s povprečno ravnijo 7 bazičnih točk v prvi polovici leta 2007.
Chart 10 Money market interest rates
Graf 10 Obrestne mere denarnega trga
Chart 11 Three-month EUREPO, EURIBOR and overnight interest swap
Graf 11 3-mesečni EUREPO, EURIBOR in obrestne zamenjave čez noč
(percentages per annum; daily data)
(odstotki na leto; dnevni podatki)
Aug.
avg.
at maturities beyond the very short term as a result of the turbulence seen in money markets since August 2007.
letu 2007 zvišale.
the three-month EURIBOR and the three-month EUREPO (an index for private sector repurchase agreements) reaching a peak of 93 basis points on 17 December on account of the particular tensions observed towards the end of the year. While this spread subsequently declined, reaching 43 basis points on 29 February 2008, it remained elevated by comparison with its average level of around 7 basis points in the first half of 2007.
Vendar je tudi tu potrebna previdnost, saj so se obrestne mere EURIBOR ob napetostih na denarnem trgu skokovito povišale, kar bi lahko zameglilo običajne informacije, ki jih je mogoče izluščiti iz teh obresti v zvezi s pričakovanji prihodnjih obrestnih mer.
Interest rates implied by three-month EURIBOR futures for 2008 increased in the course of 2007. Nonetheless, this too must be interpreted with caution given the sharp increases seen in EURIBOR rates in the context of the money market tensions, which are likely to blur the usual information content of these rates with regard to interest rate expectations.
Obrestne mere v terminskih pogodbah na 3-me-sečni EURIBOR z zapadlostjo marca, junija in septembra 2008 so 29. februarja 2008 znašale 4,36%, 4,05% oziroma 3,71%, tj.
On 29 February 2008 the interest rates implied by three-month futures contracts maturing in March, June and September 2008 stood at 4.36%, 4.05% and 3.71% respectively, i.e. 33 and 6 basis points higher and 27 basis points lower than on 2 January 2007.
33 in 6 bazičnih točk več oziroma 27 baznih točk manj kot 2. januarja 2007.
The slope of the money market yield curve – as measured by the spread between the twelve-month and one-month EURIBOR rates – showed some volatility in the course of 2007, with that spread fluctuating between -15 and 50 basis points.
Naklon krivulje donosnosti denarnega trga – merjen kot razlika med 12-mesečno in 1-mesečno obrestno mero EURIBOR – je med letom 2007 kazal nekaj volatilnosti, pri čemer je razlika nihala med -15 in 50 bazičnimi točkami.
On 29 February 2008 this spread stood at 18 basis points, compared with 40 basis points on 2 January 2007 (see Chart 10).
Razlika je 29. februarja 2008 znašala 18 bazičnih točk v primerjavi s 40 bazičnimi točkami 2. januarja 2007 (glej graf 10).
However, the slope of the money market yield curve should be interpreted with some caution, since by historical standards the spreads between unsecured EURIBOR rates and secured rates (such as EUREPO rates) were exceptionally pronounced during the second half of the year
Krivuljo donosnosti denarnega trga je treba razlagati z določeno mero previdnosti, saj so bile razlike med obrestnimi merami EURIBOR na nezavarovanem trgu in obrestnimi merami na zavarovanem trgu (npr.
During the first half of 2007 the implied volatility derived from options on three-month EURIBOR futures decreased.
EUREPO) v drugi polovici leta glede na pretekla gibanja zelo izrazite pri ročnostih, daljših od zelo kratkoročnih, na kar so vplivali pretresi na denarnih trgih po avgustu 2007.
However, implied volatilities then increased significantly from August onwards as the tensions in money and financial markets took hold (see Box 2).
Obrestne mere, ki jih kažejo terminske pogodbe na 3-mesečni EURIBOR za leto 2008, so se v
Box 2
Implicitna volatilnost pa se je močno povečala po avgustu, ko so se pojavile napetosti na denarnih in fi nančnih trgih (glej okvir 2).
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Okvir 2