natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Chart A Contributions to the change in annual HICP inflation since December 2006
Graf A Prispevki k spremembi letne inflacije po HICP od decembra 2006
The annual rate of HICP inflation increased substantially in the course of 2007.
, se je leta 2007 ob čutno povečala. Decem-
In December it stood at an elevated 3.1% – a level unseen since May 2001 – up from 1.9% in November 2006.
(odstotne to č ke ) bra je dosegla visoko 3,1% stopnjo, največ po maju 2001, medtem ko je novembra 2006 znašala
This increase was almost entirely the result of three consecutive sharprises in annual inflation in September, October and November, and was driven mostly by significant contributions from price developments in the energy and processed food components(see Chart A).
1) storitveindustrijsko blago razen energentovnepredelana hranapredelana hranaenergentisprememba letne inflacije po HICP od decembra 2006 cije septembra, oktobra in novembra, največ pa so k temu prispevala gibanja cen v skupini energentov in predelane hrane (glej graf A).
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Calculated as the difference between the year-on-year HICP growth rate in a given month and the year-on-year HICP growth rate in December 2006.
Vira: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.1) Izračunana kot razlika med medletno stopnjo rasti indeksa HICP v danem mesecu in medletno stopnjo rasti indeksa HICP v decembru 2006.
It is important to establish to what extent changes in the year-on-year inflation rate reflect current developments (i.e. actual “news” from one month to the next) and to what extent they reflect the impact of price volatility in the previous year, through “base effects” 1.
Pomembno je ugotoviti, koliko so spremembe v stopnji medletne infl acije posledica tekočih gibanj (tj. dejanskih „novosti” od enega meseca do drugega) in koliko so posledica učinka volatilnosti cen v preteklem letu prek tako imenovanih baznih učinkov.1V tem okvirju predstavljamo vlogo baznih učinkov, zlasti gibanja cen energentov, ki so vplivali na zadnja gibanja infl acije po HICP, in osvetljujemo njihov prihodnji učinek v letu 2008.
This box reviews the role of base effects, in particular from energy price developments, in driving recent HICP inflation developments and provides some insight into their prospective impact over 2008.
Z izpeljavo mesečne sezonske dinamike v vsaki skupini indeksa HICP lahko ločimo prispevke baznih učinkov in tekočih gibanj k mesečnim spremembam medletne stopnje infl acije po HICP (glej graf B).2
1 A base effect can be defined as the contribution to the change in the year-on-year inflation rate in a particular month that stems from a deviation of the month-on-month rate of change in the base month (i.e. the same month one year earlier) from its usual or “normal” pattern, taking account of seasonal fluctuations. fluctuations.
1 Bazni učinek lahko opredelimo kot prispevek k spremembi medletne stopnje infl acije v posameznem mesecu, ki izhaja iz odstopanja medmesečne stopnje spremembe v baznem mesecu (tj. isti mesec eno let prej) od običajnega oziroma „normalnega” gibanja, pri čemer se upoštevajo sezonska nihanja.
Chart C Decomposition of the change in annual HICP inflation since December 2006
Graf C Razčlenitev spremembe letne inflacije po HICP od decembra 2006
Chart B Decomposition of the monthly change in annual HICP inflation
Graf B Razčlenitev mesečne spremembe letne inflacije po HICP
(percentage points) energy base effectsnon-energy base effects energy base effectsnon-energy base effectscurrent inflation developments 1) current inflation developments 1)change in annual HICP inflation since December 2006 2) change in the year-on-year inflation rate 2)
2) trenutno gibanje inflacije 1)sprememba letne inflacije po HICP od decembra 2006 spremembe medletne stopnje inflacije
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Calculated as the difference between the change in the year-on-year inflation rate and the combined base effects from energy and non-energy components.2) Calculated as the difference between the year-on-year inflation rate in two consecutive months.
Vira: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.1) Izračunano kot razlika med spremembo medletne stopnje infl acije in skupnimi baznimi učinki energentov in drugih komponent razen energentov.2) Izračunane kot razlika v medletni stopnji infl acije med dvema zaporednima mesecema.
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Calculated as the difference between the change in the annual inflation rate since December 2006 and the cumulated base effects from energy and non-energy components since December 2006.
Vira: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.1) Izračunano kot razlika med spremembo letne stopnje infl acije od decembra 2006 in skupnimi baznimi učinki energentov in drugih komponent razen energentov od decembra 2006.
2) Calculated as the difference between the year-on-year HICP growth rate in a given month and the year-on-year HICP growth rate in December 2006.
2) Izračunana kot razlika med medletno rastjo stopnje infl acije po HICP v danem mesecu in rastjo stopnje infl acije po HICP v decembru 2006.
Base effects had a substantial impact on the pattern of headline inflation rates in 2007, as had been anticipated.3 Over the course of the year, the most significant monthly contributions came from base effects in the energy price component, owing to the volatile pattern of month-on-month oil price developments in 2006.
Kot je bilo pričakovati, so bazni učinki občutno vplivali na gibanje skupne infl acije v letu 2007.3Med letom so mesečno najbolj prispevali bazni učinki v skupini cen energentov zaradi volatilnega gibanja medmesečnih cen nafte leta 2006.
From January to July 2007 favourable energy base effects had a downward impact on the headline inflation rate.
Od januarja do julija 2007 so ugodni bazni učinki energentov vplivali na znižanje stopnje skupne inflacije.
In the second half of 2007, by contrast, the year-on-year rate of increase in the HICP was affected by unfavourable energy base effects, which were especially strong in September and October.
Nasprotno pa so neugodni bazni učinki energentov, ki so bili posebno močni septembra in oktobra, v drugi polovici leta 2007 vplivali na zvišanje medletne stopnje infl acije po HICP.
Base effects from non-energy components were, overall, relatively small in 2007.
Bazni učinki drugih skupin razen energentov so bili leta 2007 razmeroma majhni.
Nevertheless, inflation developments in the last quarter of the year were essentially driven by month-on-month price dynamics, owing to the surge in energy prices and also processed food prices.
Kljub temu je na gibanje infl acije v zadnjem četrtletju v glavnem vplivala medmesečna dinamika cen zaradi skokovitega dviga cen nafte in cen predelane hrane.
In November, in particular, most of the contribution from the energy component to the increase in HICP inflation was due to the pass-through of the recent increases in oil prices in international markets.
Posebno novembra je bil prispevek skupine energentov k zvišanju infl acije po HICP posledica prenosa nedavne rasti cen nafte na mednarodnih trgih.
In addition to the impact from crude oil prices, there was some increase in the refining margin, reflecting higher profits for energy suppliers.
Poleg učinka cen surove nafte se je zvišala tudi rafinerijska marža, kar kaže višje dobičke dobaviteljev energentov.
In December, by contrast, the energy component exerted some downward pressure on the overall headline inflation rate, but this was broadly offset by further upward pressure from processed food prices.
Nasprotno je decembra skupina energentov vplivala na znižanje stopnje skupne inflacije, vendar je ta učinek v glavnem izravnala nadaljnja rast cen predelane hrane.
2 The contribution of base effects to the monthly changes in the year-on-year rate of inflation is calculated as the deviation of the (nonseasonally adjusted) month-on-month change 12 months earlier from the estimated “normal” month-on-month change.
V celotnem letu so skupni bazni učinki skupine energentov in drugih skupin razen energentov skupno razmeroma malo vplivali na medletno stopnjo rasti infl acije po HICP, saj so se ugodni in neugodni vplivi med seboj skoraj popolnoma izravnali (glej graf C).
energy component was mainly due to the impact of a decrease in crude oil prices over the month, while the base effect from energy price developments a year earlier was almost negligible.
čji del zvišanja medletne in fl acije po HICP posledica cen v letu 2007. Kaže torej, da je bil vetekočih inflacijskih gibanj.
Looking at the year as a whole, total base effects from energy and non-energy components had a relatively minor cumulated impact on the annual rate of increase in HICP inflation, as favourable and unfavourable influences almost exactly offset one another (see Chart C).
V prihodnjem obdobju naj bi se stopnja infl acije po HICP leta 2008 po pričakovanjih umirila, pod pogojem, da se bo gibanje cen energentov in prehrambenih surovin na svetovnih trgih nekoliko obrnila navzdol, kot trenutno kažejo terminske cene.
Overall, of the total 1.1 percentage point increase in the HICP annual growth rate between December 2006 and December 2007, only 0.1 percentage point reflected the cumulative upward impact of energy base effects, while the remaining 1 percentage point reflected price dynamics in 2007.
Skupni bazni učinki cen energentov in drugih cen naj bi leta 2008 po pričakovanjih občutno prispevali k umirjanju inflacijskih gibanj (v dvanajstih mesecih do decembra 2008 za skupno okrog 1,1 odstotne točke).4Učinek bo na splošno najmočnejši proti koncu leta, saj občutna rast cen energentov in hrane v drugi polovici leta 2007 dvanajst mesecev pozneje ne bo več vplivala na medletno primerjavo.
It therefore appears that most of the total increase in annual HICP inflation was accounted for by current inflation developments.
Koliko pa bodo ti negativni bazni učinki vplivali tudi na nižjo infl acijo po HICP, je odvisno predvsem od tega, da ne pride do dodatnih šokov pri cenah nafte in hrane, ter od zmernega gibanja preostalih skupin v indeksu HICP, za kar je še posebno pomembno, da se ne pojavijo sekundarni učinki.
factors (see Box 5). The “bread and cereals” and “milk, cheese and eggs” sub-components were the most affected.
Tudi prispevek druge značilno volatilne komponente k skupni inflaciji, tj. cen nepredelane hrane, se je leta 2007 povečal in sledil pospeševanju cen v tej skupini iz leta 2006.
increased at a sustained pace in 2006, continued to record heightened annual rates of growth in 2007.
Cene mesa, ki so se leta 2006 vztrajno zviševale, so leta 2007 še naprej dosegale povišane medletne stopnje rasti.
In part, this development reflected the price increases in global markets of animal feed and other input costs.
Na takšno dinamiko je delno vplivala rast cen krme za živali na svetovnih trgih in drugih lastnih stroškov.
A major contribution to the rise in HICP inflation in late 2007 came from processed food prices, which started to rise at stronger rates towards the end of the summer.
Cene industrijskega blaga razen energentov so se leta 2007 zvišale za 1,0%, kar je več kot v preteklih letih.
In the last quarter of the year the annual growth rate of the processed food component stood at 4.5%, the highest rate ever recorded since the start of Monetary Union in 1999.
Ti učinki so več kot odtehtali zaviralni vpliv nižjih uvoznih cen, ki so bili v razmerah močne mednarodne konkurence posledica gibanja tečaja.
The increase in the annual rate of change of processed food prices occurred in the context of strong increases in the prices of some agricultural commodities in world markets, which were driven by a combination of temporary and structural
Inflacija cen storitev se je na začetku leta 2007 izrazito zvišala, predvsem zaradi vpliva povečanja DDV v Nemčiji, in ostala na povišani ravni celo leto.
Non-energy industrial goods prices rose by 1.0% in 2007, a higher rate than in previous years.
Od februarja do julija 2007 je ostal stabilen na ravni 1,9%, avgusta pa se je spet začel dvigati, predvsem zaradi močne rasti cen predelane hrane.
This acceleration mainly reflected the effects of the VAT increase in Germany, the input cost pressures signalled by domestic producer prices for consumer goods, and the fact that capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector stood around historically high levels throughout the whole year.
Pomembno so k višji inflaciji po HICP ob koncu leta 2007 prispevale cene predelane hrane, ki so se proti koncu poletja začele močneje dvigati. V zadnjem četrtletju leta je medletna stopnja rasti cen v skupini predelane hrane znašala 4,5%, kar je najvišja stopnja po začetku ekonomske in monetarne unije leta 1999.
These effects more than offset the dampening influence of lower import price pressures, which reflected exchange rate developments, in an environment of strong international competition.
Povečanje medletne stopnje rasti cen predelane hrane se je zgodilo v okviru močne rasti cen nekaterih kmetijskih surovin na svetovnih trgih, ki jih je povzročila kombinacija začasnih in strukturnih dejavnikov (glej okvir 5).
Finally, services price inflation ation
Dejansko sta bili najbolj prizadeti podskupini „kruh in izdelki iz žit” in „mleko, mlečni izdelki in jajca”.
Food price inflation increased sharply in the euro area in the second half of 2007, at both the producer and consumer level.
Inflacija cen hrane se je v euroobmočju v drugi polovici leta 2007 skokovito povečala tako na ravni proizvajalcev kot na ravni potrošnikov.
Producer prices of food products and beverages rose by 4.5% on average in 2007, the highest rate for more than six years.
Cene hrane in pijače pri proizvajalcih so se leta 2007 dvignile za povprečno 4,5%, kar je najvišja stopnja rasti v več kot šestih letih.
HICP food prices rose by 4.3% in December 2007, up from 2.4% on average in 2006.
Cene hrane v indeksu HICP so se decembra 2007 dvignile za 4,3%, medtem ko so se leta 2006 povprečno dvignile za 2,4%.
The increase in HICP food prices was mainly driven by the processed food component.
Zvišanje cen hrane v indeksu HICP je bilo predvsem posledica skupine predelane hrane.
Within this component, the prices of cereals and bread and those of milk, cheese and eggs rose particularly sharply (see Chart A).
Znotraj te skupine so se posebno izrazito dvignile cene žit in kruha ter mleka, mlečnih izdelkov in jajc (glej graf A).
Food prices played an important role in the rise in overall HICP inflation in the second half of 2007.
Cene hrane so imele pomembno vlogo pri dvigu skupne infl acije po HICP v drugi polovici leta 2007.
This box considers the potential factors driving movements in food price inflation in the euro area and discusses the outlook.
V tem okvirju obravnavamo potencialne dejavnike, ki so spodbujali gibanje infl acije cen hrane v euroobmočju, in pričakovanja za prihodnost.
The rise in food price inflation in the euro area largely reflects global factors. The prices of several
Rast infl acije cen hrane v euroobmočju je v glavnem posledica svetovnih dejavnikov.
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.Note: The left-hand panel shows the annual contributions for the years 2004-07.
Rast cen je bila delno posledica začasnih dejavnikov, kot so neugodne vremenske razmere v nekaterih pomembnih državah izvoznicah kmetijskih surovin, ki so vplivale na svetovno ponudbo teh surovin.
In part, these price increases reflected temporary factors, such as adverse weather conditions in some major agricultural commodity-exporting countries which affected the global supply of these commodities.
Visoke cene energentov so tudi prispevale k dvigu stroškov energetsko intenzivnih proizvodnih faktorjev v kmetijstvu, kot so gnojila ter gorivo za prevoz in stroje.
High energy prices also increased the cost of energy-intensive inputs for agriculture, such as fertiliser, fuel for transport and machinery.
Poleg tega je mednarodne cene hrane spodbujalo tudi močno povečanje svetovnega povpraševanja po živilih, ki je bilo posledica sprememb prehrambnih navad v mnogih državah v razvoju in nastanka novih virov povpraševanja po nekaterih kmetijskih surovinah, na primer za proizvodnjo biogoriva.
(monthly data in USD; index: average 2000 = 100) cereals oilseeds and oil beverages, sugar and tobacco
(mesečni podatki v USD; indeks: povpre čje 2000 = 100) žita oljnice in olje pijače, sladkor in tobačni izdelki mleko, mlečni izdelki in jajcakruh in žitni izdelkisladkor in konditorski izdelkidrugo
Sources: Hamburg Institute of International Economics and ECB calculations.Note: Latest observation refers to December 2007.
Viri: Hamburški mednarodno-gospodarski inštitut in iz ra ECB. Opomba: Zadnje meritve se nanašajo na december 2007.
Underscoring the global nature of the food price shock, food prices increased simultaneously in several major economies outside the euro area in 2007.
Vira: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.Opomba: Lestvica na levi strani kaže letne prispevke v obdobju 2004-07.
HICP processed food excluding tobacco across euro area countries
Predelana hrana v HICP brez tobačnih izdelkov v različnih državah euroobmočja
Weights 2007
Uteži 2007 povprečne vrednosti 20052006
Belgium Germany Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Luxembourg The Netherlands Austria Portugal Slovenia Finland
Belgija Nemčija Irska Grčija Španija Francija Italija Luksemburg Nizozemska Avstrija Portugalska Slovenija Finska
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Vira: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.
Looking ahead, the outlook for both world and domestic food prices remains highly uncertain.
manj kot v preteklih dveh letih.
Although the supply of agricultural products should eventually respond to the increase in demand, the catch-up period may be more prolonged than currently envisaged.
Inflacija cen pri proizvajalcih, ki je najvišjo vrednost na ravni 6% dosegla julija 2006, se je predvsem zaradi baznih učinkov v skupini energentov postopno nižala in je julija 2007 znašala 1,8%.
Moreover, food prices depend on a number of factors which are difficult to predict, including technology advances and possible changes in energy policy.
Od septembra 2007 so višje medletne stopnje rasti cen energentov pri proizvajalcih – ki so jih spodbujale višje cene nafte in bazni učinki – in rast cen hrane pri proizvajalcih povzročili dvig infl acije cen pri proizvajalcih.
Overall, risks seem to be on the upside.
Decembra je inflacija cen pri proizvajalcih znašala 4,3%.
From September 2007 higher annual rates of energy producer price growth – pushed up by oil price increases and base effects – and food producer price growth led to an increase in producer price inflation.
Proizvajalci prehrambnih izdelkov so v tretjem četrtletju leta doživeli visoko rast cen ob zvišanju cen nekaterih kmetijskih surovin na svetovnih trgih (glej okvir 5).
In December 2007 producer price inflation stood at 4.3%.
Medletna rast cen proizvodov za investicije se je junija 2007 nehala zviševati in se je v četrtem četrtletju leta 2007 znižala na 1,5% kot posledica ugodnih učinkov apreciacije eura.
The annual growth rate of industrial producer prices excluding construction and energy declined somewhat in the course of the year, but remained at elevated levels.
Medletna stopnja rasti cen industrijskih proizvodov pri proizvajalcih brez gradbeništva in energentov se je med letom nekoliko znižala, vendar je ostala visoka.
This development reflected different patterns in the main components (see Chart 26).
Takšna dinamika je bila posledica razlinih gibanj v glavnih komponentah (glej graf 26).
The annual rate of change in industrial producer prices (excluding construction) in the euro area was 2.8% in 2007, considerably lower than in the previous two years. Producer price inflation, which had peaked at 6% in July 2006, gradually declined to stand at 1.8% in July 2007, mainly on account of
Medletna stopnja rasti cen proizvodov za vmesno porabo se je leta 2007 še naprej postopno umirjala, tako da se je decembra znižala na 3,5% v primerjavi z najvišjo vrednostjo na ravni 6,5%, ki je bila dosežena avgusta 2006.
Chart 26 Breakdown of industrial producer prices
Graf 26 Razčlenitev cen industrijskihproizvodov pri proizvajalcih
(annual percentage changes; monthly data) energy (left-hand scale)industry excluding construction (right-hand scale)intermediate goods (right-hand scale)capital goods (right-hand scale)consumer goods (right-hand scale)
(medletne spremembe v odstotkih; mese čni podatki) energenti (lestvica na levi strani)industrija brez gradbeništva (lestvica na desni strani)proizvodi za vmesno uporabo (lestvica na desni strani)proizvodi za investicije (lestvica na desni strani)proizvodi za široko porabo (lestvica na desni strani)
Source: Eurostat.Note: Data refer to the euro area including Cyprus and Malta.
Vir: Eurostat.Opomba: Podatki se nanašajo na euroobmoin Malto.
Further down the production chain, consumer goods prices continued on the upward path observed since mid-2005.
Povprečna medletna stopnja rasti je v prvih treh četrtletjih znašala 2,0%, kar je nekoliko manj od povprečne stopnje rasti leta 2006 (glej tabelo 2).
Chart 27 Sectoral compensation per employee
Graf 27 Sredstva za zaposlene podejavnostih
(annual percentage changes; quarterly data) industry excluding constructionconstructionservices
(medletne spremembe v odstotkih; četrtletni podatki) industrija brez gradbeništvagradbeništvostoritve
This development was mainly driven by non-durable consumer goods prices, which accelerated from July onwards, reflecting global food price pressures which pushed up food consumer goods prices.
Kaže, da je nižja brezposelnost še naprej razmeroma malo vplivala na dogovore o plačah.
Excluding tobacco and food prices, however, the annual rate of change in consumer goods prices remained stable throughout the year, hovering around 1.3%.
Videti je tudi, da so strukturne reforme na trgih dela in proizvodov, spremenjena struktura ponudbe delovne sile in zaposlenosti ter mednarodna konkurenca prispevali k nadaljevanju zmernih stroškov dela v euroobmočju.
The average growth in total hourly labour costs in the first three quarters of 2007 was lower than the growth rate recorded in 2006.
znamenjih upočasnitve zaposlenosti v tem sektorju.
The moderation of annual growth rates of compensation per employee and total hourly labour costs was partially due to the dampening effects of cuts in social security contributions which were implemented in some euro area economies in 2007.
Medletna stopnja rasti sredstev za zaposlene v storitvah je bila v prvih treh četrtletjih leta 2007 nižja kot v preteklih dveh letih.
LABOUR COSTS REMAINED MODERATEThe annual growth rate of compensation per employee remained moderate in 2007.
Stroški dela na enoto proizvoda so se v prvih treh četrtletjih leta 2007 zvišali povprečno za 1,1%, v primerjavi s stopnjo rasti v višini 0,9% in 1,0% v preteklih dveh letih.
The average annual growth rate in the first three quarters of the year was 2.0%, slightly lower than the average growth rate recorded in 2006 (see Table 2).
Zvišanje stroškov dela na enoto proizvoda je povzročilo določeno upočasnitev rasti dobička v letu 2007.
Sectoral data indicate that, as in the previous year, growth rates in compensation per employee in 2007 were higher in the industrial sector than in the services sector, in line with sectoral productivity developments (see Chart 27).
Kazalnik skupne pro-fi tne marže (merjen kot razlika med deflatorjem BDP in stroški dela na enoto proizvoda) je do tretjega četrtletja leta 2007 še naprej kazal dinamično rast dobičkov, vendar počasnejšo kot leta 2006.
In the industrial sector, the average growth rate in the first three quarters of 2007 was broadly in line with developments since the beginning of 2006.
Povprečna rast profitne marže je v prvih treh četrtletjih leta 2007 znašala 0,6%, medtem ko je leta 2006 znašala 0,8%.
The annual rate of growth of compensation per employee in the construction sector, although slightly higher than in the industrial sector, moderated in the course of the year amid the first signs of a slowdown in employment in this sector.
Povprečna rast skupnih stroškov dela na uro je bila v prvih treh četrtletjih leta 2007 nižja od stopnje rasti leta 2006.