natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Measurement issues How can inflation be measured?
Vprašanja merjenja inflacije Kako merimo inflacijo?
There are millions of individual prices in an economy.These prices are subject to continuous moves which basically reflect changes in the supply of and the demand for individual goods and services and thus give an indication of the “relative scarcity” of the respective goods and services.
V vsakem gospodarstvu obstaja na milijone posameznih cen, ki se stalno spreminjajo glede na spremembe v ponudbi in povpraševanju in s tem izražajo »relativno redkost« ustreznih dobrin.
It is obvious that it is neither feasible nor desirable to take all of these prices into account, but neither is it appropriate to look at just a few of them, since they may not be representative of the general price level.
Očitno je, dani niti izvedljivo niti smiselno upoštevati vseh cen, hkrati pa tudi ni mogoče spremljati samo nekaterih, saj ni nujno, da te predstavljajo splošno raven cen.
However, the developments of the price level as identified by such a basket only reflect the situation of an “average” or representative consumer.
Gibanje ravni cen, izražene s takšno nakupovalno košarico, odraža le položaj »povprečnega« oz. reprezentativnega potrošnika.
If a person’s buying habits differ substantially from the average consumption pattern and thus from the market basket on which the index is based, that person may experience a change in the cost of living that is different to the one shown in the index.
Če se nakupovalne navade določenega potrošnika bistveno razlikujejo od povprečnega nakupovalnega vzorca in s tem od nakupovalne košarice, na kateri temelji indeks, bo ta potrošnik občutil drugačne spremembe v življenjskih stroških od tistih, ki jih izraža indeks.
There will therefore always be some people who experience a higher “inflation rate” for their “individual basket” and some who face a lower “individual rate of inflation”.
To pomeni, da bodo vedno obstajali ljudje, ki v svoji »individualni nakupovalni košarici« občutijo višjo »stopnjo inflacije«, kot tudi ljudje, ki občutijo nižjo »individualno stopnjo inflacije«.
In other words, the inflation measured by the index is only an approximate measure of the average situation in the economy; it is not identical to the overall price changes faced by each individual consumer.
Z indeksom merjena inflacija torej izraža zgolj povprečno stanje v gospodarstvu in ni enaka gibanju splošne ravni cen, kot ga doživlja vsak posamezen potrošnik.
Consumer Price Index Most countries have a simple common-sense approach to measuring inflation, using the socalled “Consumer Price Index” (CPI).6 For this purpose, the purchasing patterns of consumers are analysed to determine the goods and services which consumers typically buy and which can therefore be considered as somehow representative of the average consumer in an economy.
7 Indeks cen življenjskih potrebščin, ki meri gibanje cen potrošnih izdelkov in storitev, ni edini indeks v posameznem gospodarstvu.
As such they do not only include those items which consumers buy on a day-to-day basis (e.g. bread and fruit), but also purchases of durable goods (e.g. cars, PCs, washing machines, etc.) and frequent transactions (e.g. rents).
Drug, prav tako pomemben indeks, je indeks cen industrijskih proizvodov pri proizvajalcih.
Putting together this “shopping list” of items and weighting them according to their importance in consumer budgets
Ta meri gibanje prodajnih cen izdelkov in storitev domačih proizvajalcev v določenem časovnem obdobju.
6 In fact, the Consumer Price Index, which measures the price changes in consumer goods and services, is not the only price index in an economy.
V izračunu upoštevajo tako dobrine, ki jih potrošniki kupujejo vsak dan (npr. kruh in sadje), kot tudi trajne dobrine (npr. avtomobile, računalnike, pralne stroje) in pogoste transakcije (npr. stanarine).
Another index which is of similar economic importance is the Producer Price Index.This index measures the changes made by domestic producers of goods and services to sales prices over time.
Letna stopnja inflacije se izračuna tako, da se sprememba cene nakupovalne košarice na današnji dan izrazi kot odstotek cene te košarice na isti dan pred enim letom.
7 More precisely, these goods are weighted according to final monetary expenditure shares of private households.
8 Povedano natančneje, te dobrine so tehtane glede na delež v končnih denarnih izdatkih zasebnih gospodinjstev.
In practice, the weights in the basket are periodically revised in order to reflect changes in consumer behaviour.
V praksi se uteži v košarici v rednih razmikih posodabljajo v skladu s sprembami vedenja potrošnikov.
BOX 3.1: MEASURING INFLATION – A SIMPLE EXAMPLE
OKVIR 3.1 MERJENJE INFLACIJE – ENOSTAVEN PRIMER
Let us illustrate the considerations above by means of a simple numerical example.
Zgornjo razlago lahko ponazorimo s preprostim številčnim primerom.
Suppose that a representative market basket of the yearly expenditure of teenagers is 100 sandwiches, 50 soft drinks, ten energy drinks and one mountain bike.
Vzemimo, daje reprezentativna nakupovalna košarica letnih izdatkov povprečnega najstnika 100 sendvičev, 50 sokov, 10 energijskih napitkov in eno gorsko kolo.
that between the first and second year, the cost of this basket of goods has risen from EUR 300 to EUR 330, or by 10 %.
tega izdelka in vse cene seštejemo.
From the first to the third year, the cost has risen from EUR 300 to EUR 360, or by the equivalent of 20 %.
Vidimo, da se je cena nakupovalne košarice od prvega do drugega leta povečala s 300 € na 330 € oziroma za 10 odstotkov, od prvega do tretjega leta pa s 300 € na 360 € oziroma za 20 odstotkov.
Quantity
Enota
Price (Year 1)
Cena (1. leto)
Price (Year 2)
Cena (2. leto)
Price (Year 3)
Cena (3. leto)
Another way to express this is by means of a price index.
Spremembo lahko izrazimo tudi z indeksom cen.
In order to compute the price index, the cost of the market basket in any period is divided by the cost of the market basket in the base period, and the result is multiplied by 100.
Izračunamo ga tako, da ceno nakupovalne košarice v izbranem obdobju delimo z njeno ceno v izhodiščnem obdobju, rezultat pa množimo s 100.
In the table above, year 1 is the base period.
V zgornji tabeli je izhodiščno obdobje prvo leto, kar pomeni, daje indeks cen za tretje leto:
Price Index = (P3/P1) x 100 = (360/300) x 100 = 120
Cena tržne košarice
The total cost of the basket can then be calculated by multiplying the quantities by the respective prices and adding everything up. It is easy to see
Indeks cen skuša podati splošno sliko gibanja velikega števila cen. Kot kaže zgornji primer, se indeks lahko poveča, čeprav nekatere cene dejansko padajo.
The price index tries to give a general picture of what is happening to a great many prices.
Skupno ceno nakupovalne košarice izračunamo tako, da število enot vsakega izdelka pomnožimo s ceno
Measurement problems For various reasons, there are some difficulties associated with any attempt to express the overall change in prices as one number.
Težave pri merjenju Iz različnih razlogov se ob vsakem poskusu, da bi skupno spremembo cen izrazili z eno samo številko, pojavijo težave.
First, an existing basket usually becomes less and less representative over time, as consumers increasingly substitute more expensive goods for cheaper ones.
posledica višje kakovosti. Podražitev zaradi spremembe kakovosti ni mogoče obravnavati kot vir inflacije, saj ne zmanjšujejo kupne moči denarja.
For example, higher petrol prices might lead some people to drive less and buy a higher quantity of other goods instead.
Spremembe kakovosti so v daljših časovnih obdobjih običajne.
Therefore, if the weights are not adjusted, the change in the index may slightly overestimate the “true” price increases.
Današnji avtomobili, na primer, se močno razlikujejo od tistih, ki so jih izdelovali v 70. letih, ti pa so spet precej drugačni od tistih iz 50. let.
Second, changes in quality are sometimes difficult to incorporate into the price index.
Statistični uradi porabijo veliko časa s prilagajanjem uteži spremembam kakovosti, vseeno pa jih je zaradi njihove narave zelo težko natančno oceniti.
If the quality of a product improves over time and the price also rises, some of the change in price is due to the improved quality.
Prvič, obstoječa nakupovalna košarica s časom postaja vse manj reprezentativna, saj potrošniki dražje izdelke nadomeščajo s cenejšimi.
Price increases which are due to quality changes cannot be considered as giving rise to inflation, as they do not reduce the purchasing power of money.
Če se na primer zviša cena goriva, bodo nekateri raje vozili manj in kupovali več drugih izdelkov.
Changes in quality are commonplace over long periods of time.
Če uteži te spremembe ne upoštevajo, utegne indeks preceniti »dejansko« povečanje cene goriva.
For example, today’s cars differ considerably from those manufactured in the 1970s, which in turn were very different from those of the 1950s.
Drugič, včasih je v indeks težko vračunati spremembe v kakovosti.
Statistical offices spend a lot of time making adjustments for quality changes, but by their very nature such adjustments are not easy to estimate.
Če izdelek postaja vedno boljši, hkrati pa mu raste tudi cena, je določen del višje cene
Apart from new varieties of existing goods (e.g. the introduction of new breakfast cereals), an important and difficult
Poleg različnih obstoječih dobrin (npr. uvedba nove vrste koruznih kosmičev) je pomembno in zahtevno vprašanje tudi uvedba novih izdelkov. Ko
3 usually move with the price level and therefore with inflation. In other words, the effects of inflation have not been accounted for.
3 so v trgovine prišli prvi laserski predvajalniki, na primer, je moralo miniti nekaj časa, preden so bili vključeni v cenovne statistike, saj so bili zato potrebni podatki o tržnih deležih, glavnih distribucijskih kanalih, najbolj iskanih blagovnih znamkah in podobno.
Real variables, however, such as real income or real wages, are variables where the effects of inflation have been deducted or “taken out”.
Seveda časovni odlog od uvedbe izdelka do njegove vključitve v indeks ne sme biti prevelik, saj sicer indeks ne izraža več dejanskih sprememb povprečnih cen, s katerimi se soočajo potrošniki, z zahtevano natančnostjo.
subject is the inclusion of new products.
To odpira še eno pomembno ekonomsko vprašanje, namreč, kakšna je razlika med nominalnimi in realnimi spremenljivkami.
For example, after DVD players came on the market, there was an inevitable time lag until they could be captured in price statistics, since information on the market shares, the main distribution channels, the most popular makes, etc., was needed.
Nominalne spremenljivke so tiste, ki se merijo s tekočimi cenami in se navadno gibljejo skladno z ravnjo cen oziroma z inflacijo. To pomeni, da ne upoštevajo učinkov inflacije.
But if it takes too long to incorporate new products into the price index, the price index fails to fully reflect the actual average price changes that consumers are facing.
Nasprotno pa so realne spremenljivke, npr. realni dohodek in realne plače, tiste, pri katerih so bili učinki inflacije odšteti ali »odvzeti«.
Let us assume that a worker’s earnings increase by 3 % in nominal (i.e. in money) terms per year, in other words, his monthly earnings increase from, say, EUR 2000 to EUR 2060.
Vzemimo, da se letni dohodek delavca nominalno (tj. v denarju) poveča za 3 odstotke, denimo z 2000 € na 2060 € na mesec.
If we further assume that the general price level were to increase by 1.5 % over the same period, which is equivalent to saying that the rate of inflation is 1.5 % per annum, then the increase in the real wage is ((103/101.5) – 1) x 100 ≈ 1.48 % (or approximately 3 % – 1.5 % = 1.5 %).
Če predpostavimo še, da se je splošna raven cen v istem obdobju povečala za 1,5 odstotka, kar je isto, kot če rečemo, daje inflacija na medletni ravni znašala 1,5 odstotka, potem se je delavčeva realna plača povečala za ((103 / 101,5 ) –1 ) × 100 % ≈ 1,48 % (oz. približno 3 %-1,5 %=1,5 %).
Therefore, the higher the rate of inflation for a given nominal wage increase, the fewer goods the worker can buy.
Čim višja je torej stopnja inflacije pri danem nominalnem povečanju plač, tem manj lahko delavec kupi.
In the past, a number of economic studies have identified a small but positive bias in the measurement of national consumer price indices, suggesting that a measured inflation rate of, say, smaller than 1/2 percentage point might in fact be consistent with “true” price stability.
Kot je pokazala vrsta ekonomskih raziskav, pri merjenju nacionalnega indeksa cen življenjskih potrebščin prihaja do majhnega, a pozitivnega popačenja, iz katerega je mogoče sklepati, daje merjena stopnja inflacije, ki je denimo manjša od ½ odstotne točke, dejansko lahko skladna z »resnično« cenovno stabilnostjo.
For the euro area (i.e. all the EU countries that have adopted the euro as their currency), no precise estimates for such a measurement bias are available.
Za euroobmočje (tj. vse države članice EU, ki so sprejele euro) natančna vrednost takšnega popačenja ni znana, je pa iz dveh razlogov verjetno razmeroma majhna.
First, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) – this is a harmonised CPI for all euro area countries – is a relatively new concept.
Prvič, harmonizirani indeks cen življenjskih potrebščin (HICP) – harmonizirani indeks cen za vse države euroobmočja – je dokaj nov koncept.
Second, Eurostat, the European Commission agency responsible for this area of statistics at the EU level, has attempted to avoid a measurement bias in the HICP by setting appropriate statistical standards.
Drugič, Eurostat oz. služba Evropske komisije, ki je odgovorna zato statistično področje na ravni EU, se popačenju pri merjenju indeksa HICP skuša izogniti z določitvijo ustreznih statističnih standardov.
BOX 3.2: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPECTED INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES – THE SO-CALLED “FISHER EFFECT“ differ when actual or realised inflation differs from expected inflation.
OKVIR 3.2 RAZMERJE MED PRIČAKOVANO INFLACIJO IN OBRESTNIMI MERAMI: FISHERJEV UČINEK realizirana realna obrestna mera pa i – p.
Clearly the nominal interest rate cannot take account of future realised inflation because this is not known when the nominal interest rate is set.The nominal interest rate can only take into account expected inflation.
Obe obrestni meri se med seboj razlikujeta, kadar se dejanska ali realizirana inflacija razlikuje od pričakovane inflacije.
Economists call the interest rate that the bank (or a normal bond) pays the nominal interest rate.The real interest rate is defined as the increase in the purchasing power achieved with this investment.
Ekonomisti obrestno mero, ki jo izplača banka (ali navadna obveznica) imenujejo nominalna obrestna mera. Realna obrestna mera je opredeljena kot povečanje kupne moči, dosežene s to investicijo.
If i denotes the nominal interest rate, r the real interest rate and p the rate of inflation, then the relationship between these three variables can be written as: 8 i = r*
Če i pomeni nominalno obrestno mero, r realno obrestno mero in p stopnjo inflacije, je razmerje med temi tremi spremenljivkami mogoče izraziti kot:9
Expressed in this way, the equation is called the Fisher equation, after economist Irving Fisher (1867–1947).
Iz zgornje enačbe sledi, daje realna obrestna mera enaka razliki med nominalno obrestno mero in stopnjo inflacije.
It basically shows that the nominal interest rate can change for two reasons, namely
Če enačbo obrnemo, vidimo, daje nominalna obrestna mera enaka vsoti realne obrestne mere in stopnje inflacije:
Following on from this, the real interest rate is the difference between the nominal interest rate and the rate of inflation.
9 To razmerje je zgolj približek, ki je samo zmerno natančen, vse dokler so r, i in p i razmeroma majhni.
By rearranging this equation, it is easy to see that the nominal interest rate equals the sum of the real interest rate and the inflation rate: because the expected real interest rate (r*) changes or because the expected inflation rate (pe) changes.
Mogoče je pokazati, da 1 + r = (1 + i) x (1 + p i) ali r=i–p i – r x p i. Seveda pri nizkih vrednostih r in p i izraz r x p i postane zanemarljiv, zato je uporabljen približek r=i–p i.
Of course, for low levels of r and p, the term r x p becomes negligible and, therefore, r=i–p is the approximation used.
V osnovi kaže, da se nominalna obrestna mera lahko spremeni iz dveh razlogov, prvič zato, ker se spremeni pričakovana realna obrestna mera (r*), ali pa zato, ker se spremeni pričakovana stopnja inflacije (pe).
More precisely, the equation postulates that, given the ex ante real rate, the nominal interest rate i moves in parallel with changes in expected inflation pe.
Natančneje enačba predpostavlja, da se ob dani pričakovani realni obrestni meri nominalna obrestna mera i spreminja skladno z gibanjem pričakovane inflacije pe.
This one-for-one relationship between the expected inflation rate and the nominal interest rate is called the “Fisher effect”, i.e. where higher inflation leads to higher nominal interest rates.
To razmerje med pričakovano stopnjo inflacije in nominalno obrestno mero se imenuje Fisherjev učinek in pomeni, da višja inflacija vodi k višjim nominalnim obrestnim meram.
So, what would this equation tell us about the determinants of nominal interest rates?
Kaj nam ta enačba lahko pove o dejavnikih, ki določajo nominalne obrestne mere?
When a borrower (for example a person who wants to buy a new car) and a lender (for example a bank) agree on a nominal interest rate, they do not know exactly what the inflation rate will be for the loan period.
Ko se posojilojemalec (na primer nekdo, ki želi kupiti nov avto) in posojilodajalec (na primer banka) dogovorita za nominalno obrestno mero, ne vesta natančno, kakšna bo stopnja inflacije v času trajanja posojila.
It is therefore important to distinguish between two concepts of the real interest rate: the real interest rate the borrower and lender expect when the loan is made, called the ex ante real (r*) interest rate, and the real interest rate actually realised, called the ex post interest rate (r).
Zato je pomembno, da razlikujemo med dvema konceptoma realnih obrestnih mer: realna obrestna mera, ki jo dolžnik in upnik pričakujeta ob odobritvi posojila, se imenuje pričakovana (oz. ex ante) realna (r*) obrestna mera; realna obrestna mera, ki je dejansko izplačana, pa realizirana (oz. ex post) obrestna mera (r).
A high nominal interest rate on a bank deposit or government bond may therefore simply reflect high inflation expectations and does not necessarily signal that the real return on this investment is expected to be high as well.
Visoka nominalna obrestna mera za bančno vlogo ali državno obveznico torej lahko odraža zgolj visoka inflacijska pričakovanja in ne pomeni nujno, daje pričakovan tudi visok realni donos naložbe.
This concept is important for everyone who borrows or lends money.
Ta koncept je pomemben za vse, ki denar posojajo oz. si ga izposojajo.
It should also be noted that, under certain circumstances, interest rates can include risk premia.
Pri tem ne gre pozabiti, da v določenih okoliščinah obrestne mere vključujejo premije za zavarovanje pred tveganjem.
These usually encompass inflation (uncertainty) risk premia, exchange rate risk premia and default risk premia.
Najpogostejše so premija za inflacijsko tveganje, premija za tečajno tveganje in premija za stečajno tveganje.
Although borrowers and lenders cannot predict future inflation accurately, it seems quite plausible that they do have some expectation of the future inflation rate.
Čeprav posojilodajalci in posojilojemalci ne morejo v celoti predvideti inflacije, je razumljivo, da imajo glede prihodnje inflacije oboji določena pričakovanja.
Let p denote actual realised inflation and pe the expectation of this rate of inflation.
Vzemimo, da p označuje dejansko inflacijo in pe pričakovano inflacijo. Pričakovana realna obrestna mera je i – pe,
3 earn you about EUR 2.50 in “real” income, which is equivalent to saying that the real interest rate is about 2.5 %.
Druga pomembna razlika je med nominalnimi in realnimi obrestnimi merami (gl. tudi okvir 3.2).
It is obvious that if inflation is positive then the real interest rate is lower than the nominal interest rate.
Za primer vzemimo, da kupimo obveznico z dospelostjo enega leta in z imensko vrednostjo, ki ob koncu leta prinaša 4-odstotni donos.
In the case of general deflation, consumers may not be aware of the fact that a fall in the price level of a single product merely reflects general price developments and not a fall in the relative price level of this good.
Če ob začetku leta stane 100 €, je na koncu leta vredna 104 €.
As a result, they may mistakenly buy too much of this product.
Nominalna obrestna mera zanjo je torej 4 odstotke.
THE BENEFITS OF PRICE STABILITY
Pri tem velja, da izraz obrestna mera, če ni drugače določeno, pomeni nominalno obrestno mero.
Consequently, if prices are stable, firms and consumers do not run the risk of misinterpreting changes in the general price level as relative price changes and can make better informed consumption and investment decisions.
… blaži negotovost glede gibanja splošne ravni cen in s tem izboljšuje preglednost relativnih cen … Cenovna stabilnost ljudem pomaga, da lažje ugotovijo, kako se je cena ene dobrine spremenila v primerjavi s cenami drugih dobrin ( t.i. »relativne cene«), saj spremembe niso skrite v gibanju splošne ravni cen.
Price stability makes it easier for people to identify changes in the prices of goods.
Vzemimo, da se določen izdelek podraži za 3 odstotke.
Price stability supports higher living standards by helping to … The information above explains why inflation and deflation are generally undesirable phenomena.
Če je splošna raven cen stabilna, potrošniki vejo, da se je relativna cena tega izdelka zvišala, zato ga kupujejo manj.
Indeed, there are substantial disadvantages and costs related to inflation and deflation.
Če je inflacija visoka in nestabilna, pa ni več očitno, kaj se je zgodilo z relativno ceno, ki se je morda celo znižala.
Price stability prevents these costs from arising and brings about important benefits for all citizens.There are several ways in which price stability helps to achieve high levels of economic welfare, e. g. in the form of high employment.
V tem primeru je za potrošnike smiselno, da kupujejo več tega izdelka, saj se je podražil »samo« za 3 odstotke.
Uncertainty about the rate of inflation may also lead firms to make wrong employment decisions.
Cenovna stabilnost ljudem pomaga, da lažje ugotovijo spremembe v cenah dobrin.
To illustrate this, let us suppose that in an environment of high inflation, a firm misinterprets the increase in the market price of its goods by, say, 5 %, as a relative price decrease as it is not aware that the inflation rate has recently fallen from, say, 6 % to 4 %.
Ponovno predpostavimo, daje stopnja inflacije v tem letu 1,5 odstotka. Preprost račun nam pokaže, da bo košarica dobrin, ki danes stane 100 €, naslednje leto stala 101,5 €.
The firm might then decide to invest less and lay off workers in order to reduce its production capacities, as it would otherwise expect to make a loss given the perceived decrease in the relative price of its goods.
Če obveznico s 4-odstotno nominalno obrestno mero kupimo za 100 €, jo čez eno leto prodamo za 104 €, nato pa kupimo košarico dobrin za 101,5 €, nam na koncu ostane 2,5 €.
However, this decision would ultimately turn out to be wrong, as the nominal wages of employees due to lower inflation may increase by less than that assumed by the firm.
Po upoštevanju inflacije je »dejanski« donos obveznice za 100 € približno 2,5 €, kar z drugimi besedami pomeni, daje realna obrestna mera približno 2,5 odstotka.
Economists would describe this as a “misallocation” of resources.
Očitno je, daje pri pozitivni inflaciji realna obrestna mera nižja od nominalne.