natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Current forecasting and cyclical adjustment methodologies generally assume a fairly stable relationship between the growth rate of tax revenues and the growth rate of GDP or, in disaggregated methodologies, the growth rate of other macroeconomic bases, which are also national accounts aggregates.
Trenutne metodologije napovedovanja in cikličnega prilagajanja na splošno predpostavljajo precej stabilno razmerje med stopnjo rasti davčnih prihodkov in stopnjo rasti BDP oziroma pri dezagregiranih metodologijah stopnjo rasti drugih makroekonomskih agregatov, ki so med drugim tudi agregati nacionalnih računov.
During boom periods, however, taxes on profits and capital gains in particular have been shown to grow at a much faster rate than the assumed macroeconomic bases and then decline sharply during the subsequent downturn.
Vendar pa je bilo v obdobju visoke konjunkture videti, da so zlasti davki od dobička in davki od kapitalskih dobičkov naraščali precej hitreje kot predpostavljeni makroekonomski agregati in so nato v poznejši fazi recesije močno upadli.
The occurrence and magnitude of such effects can hardly be predicted given that they depend on factors such as the timing of the realisation of capital gains and complex tax rules, which usually allow profits in one year to be offset against losses in previous years.
Pojava in obsega takih učinkov skoraj ni mogoče napovedati, ker so odvisni od dejavnikov, kot so čas realizacije kapitalskih dobičkov in zapletena davčna pravila, ki navadno omogočajo, da se dobički v enem letu izravnajo z izgubami iz prejšnjih let.
A breakdown of changes in the ratio of government revenue to GDP since 2000 suggests that revenue losses in 2000 and 2001 were mainly attributable to tax cuts, but these were then exacerbated by other factors which depressed tax revenues, especially in 2002.
Razčlenitev sprememb v deležu javnofinančnih prihodkov v BDP od leta 2000 kaže, da gre izgube prihodkov v letih 2000 in 2001 pripisati predvsem znižanju davkov, kar so zlasti v letu 2002 še poslabšali drugi dejavniki, ki so povzročili zmanjšanje davčnih prihodkov.
By contrast, in 2005 and 2006 the revenue-to-GDP ratio increased significantly, despite a relative lack of tax-increasing measures.
Nasprotno se je v letih 2005 in 2006 kljub razmeroma maloštevilnim ukrepom za zvišanje davkov razmerje med prihodki in BDP močno povečalo.
The potential for such revenues to disappear in the near future represents a downside risk to the current fiscal outlook.
Možnost, da bodo takšni prihodki v bližnji prihodnosti izginili, pomeni tveganje poslabšanja trenutnih fiskalnih obetov.
Given these experiences, an important lesson from the fiscal policy misjudgements of 2000-01 is that one should beware of interpreting budgetary improvements in good times as being structural, even if changes in cyclically adjusted budget balances point in this direction.
Pomembno spoznanje, ki ga je mogoče izluščiti iz napačne presoje fiskalne politike v obdobju 2000–01, je torej to, da proračunskega izboljšanja v dobrih gospodarskih obdobjih ne gre prehitro razlagati kot strukturno izboljšanje, čeprav spremembe v ciklično prilagojenem proračunskem saldu kažejo v to smer.
Rather, and as agreed by the Eurogroup in April 2007, unexpectedly high tax revenues in good times should be allocated to deficit and debt reduction rather than be used to increase spending or cut taxes in a potentially unsustainable manner.
Pravzaprav bi bilo treba v skladu z dogovorom Euroskupine iz aprila 2007 nepričakovano visoke davčne prihodke v dobrih gospodarskih obdobjih nameniti zmanjševanju primanjkljaja in dolga namesto potencialno nevzdržnemu povečevanju porabe ali zniževanju davkov.
To that end, such rules need to be drawn up ex ante, and could include rules allocating exceptional surplus revenues to deficit and debt reduction.
Zaradi pretresov na globalnem fi nanč-nem trgu je euro avgusta depreciiral, potem pa ves preostanek leta doživljal močno apreciacijo.
Increasing efficiency in the provision of government services in general, and in public administration in particular, as well as in government revenue structures, is an effective way to release budget resources for more productive purposes.
Leta 2007 se je euro kljub precejšnji kratkoročni volatilnosti okrepil tudi v razmerju do japonskega jena. Zdi se, da je eden glavnih dejavnikov, ki so vplivali na gibanje japonske valute, spremenjen odnos do tveganja pri mednarodnih vlagateljih in spremenjeno dojemanje privlačnosti prenosnega trgovanja (carry trade).
2.6 EXCHANGE RATES AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENTS interest rate differentials.
Proti koncu decembra 2007 je euro znašal 0,73 GBP, kar je najvišja vrednost do funta od uvedbe eura v letu 1999.
In addition, the persistently large US current account deficit is likely to have contributed to some extent to the weakness of the US currency.
Slabitev funta je bila domnevno povezana s tržnimi pričakovanji glede nadaljnjega zniževanja obrestnih mer Bank of England kot odziv na manj ugodne finančne in gospodarske obete.
In the early months of the year, relatively robust data releases for the euro area contrasted with a more mixed data environment for the United States, which led to a narrowing of interest rate differentials between the two areas.
Poleg tega je k slabitvi ameriške valute verjetno nekoliko prispeval tudi vztrajno visok primanjkljaj tekočega računa ZDA. Na začetku leta so bili za euroobmočje objavljeni dokaj ugodni podatki, v ZDA pa so bili podatki bolj mešani, kar je pripeljalo do zmanjševanja razlike med obrestnimi merami obeh območij. Od maja do sredine avgusta je tečaj EUR/USD nekoliko nihal, ker so udeleženci na trgu prevrednotili svojo oceno glede relativne ciklične moči obeh gospodarstev.
After a short initial period of depreciation as a result of the financial turbulence triggered by concerns about liquidity conditions in global money and credit markets, the euro appreciated strongly against the US currency from late August to late November.
Po kratkem začetnem obdobju depreciacije zaradi fi nančnih pretresov, ki jih je sprožila zaskrbljenost glede likvidnostnih razmer na svetovnih denarnih in kreditnih trgih, se je euro od konca avgusta do konca novembra glede na ameriški dolar močno okrepil.
The weakening of the US dollar appears to have been related to a downgrading of expectations for the growth outlook of the US economy by market participants, reflecting, in particular, weaker than expected data releases for the US housing
Videti je, da je slabitev ameriškega dolarja povezana z nižjimi pričakovanji udeležencev na trgu glede prihodnje rasti ameriškega gospodarstva, kar je razvidno tudi iz primerjavi s korejskim wonom (12,
Chart 33 Euro nominal and real effective exchange rates 1)
Graf 33 Nominalni in realni efektivni tečaji eura 1)
(monthly/quarterly data; index: Q1 1999 = 100) nominalreal, CPIreal, PPIreal, ULCM
(mesečni/četrtletni podatki; indeks: I 1999 = 100)
Source: ECB.1) Effective exchange rate indices vis-à-vis the currencies of 24 of the euro area’s important trading partners (EER-24).
Vir: ECB.1) Kazalniki efektivnega deviznega tečaja do valut 24 najpomembnejših trgovinskih partneric euroobmočja (EDT-24).
An upward movement of the EER-24 indices represents an appreciation of the euro.
Dvig indeksa EDT-24 pomeni apreciaceijo eura.
The latest observations for monthly data are for December 2007.
Zadnja meritev mesečnih podatkov je za december 2007.
In the case of the ULCM-based real EER-24, the latest observation is for the third quarter of 2007 and is partly based on estimates.
Pri realnem indeksu EDT-24, ki temelji na ULCM, se zadnja meritev nanaša na tretje četrtletje leta 2007 in delno temelji na ocenah.Opomba: CPI– indeks cen življenjskih potrebščin; PPI - indeks cen industrijskih proizvodov pri proizvajalcih; ULCM - stroški dela na enoto proizvoda v predelovalnih dejavnostih.
The appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the US dollar was driven largely by a changing market assessment of the relative cyclical outlook for the two economic areas in favour of the euro area and developments in
, apreciacija pa je bila skromnejša v primerjavi s singapurskim dolarjem letu 2006 beležil primanjkljaj v višini 13
The euro also strengthened against the Japanese yen in 2007, amid some considerable shortterm volatility.
3 mili- jarde EUR in v manjši meri povečanja presežka storitev v vrednosti 7,2 milijarde EUR.
On 31 December 2007 the euro stood at JPY 164.93, 5.1% higher than at the beginning of the year.
Apreciacijo eura v primerjavi z navedenimi valutami je deloma izravnala primanjkljaja v tekočih transferjih ( glej graf 3
(annual data; EUR billions; seasonally adjusted data)
depreciacija eura do poljskega zlota (za 6
Source: ECB.
% nad ravnijo izpred enega leta.
The euro also appreciated noticeably against the pound sterling in 2007 (by 9.2%), with most of the appreciation being concentrated in the period between September and December.
Po izjemno močnih stopnjah rasti v letu 2006 je vrednost blagovne menjave z državami zunaj euroobmočja leta 2007 naraščala počasneje.
In late December 2007 the euro was trading at GBP 0.73, its highest level since the inception of the single currency in 1999.
Vrednost izvoza blaga se je leta 2007 povečala za 8,1% v primerjavi s 14,3% rastjo v letu 2006.
The weakening of the pound was reportedly related to market expectations of a further reduction in policy interest rates by the Bank of England in response to the less favourable financial and economic outlook.
Hkrati se je močno upočasnila rast uvoza blaga, in sicer s 17,0% v letu 2006 na 5,5% leta 2007, To je eden od glavnih dejavnikov, ki so prispevali k splošnemu izboljšanju bilance tekočega računa euroobmočja.
After witnessing exceptionally strong growth rates in 2006, the value of extra-euro area trade in goods grew at a slower pace in 2007.
jeni rasti v prvi polovici leta se je rast v drugi polovici pospešila zaradi krepitve podjetniških naložb in apreciacije eura.
The value of goods exports increased by 8.1% in 2007, compared with growth of 14.3% in 2006. Meanwhile, the growth in goods imports showed a stronger deceleration, from 17.0% in 2006 to 5.5% in 2007.
Medtem so uvozne cene po občutnem padcu proti koncu leta 2006 v letu 2007 spet začele naraščati, predvsem zaradi velike rasti cen nafte, kar pa je delno izravnala apreciacija eura.
Imports and exports of services, by contrast, grew more strongly in 2007 than in 2006, partly counterbalancing the weaker growth in goods trade.
V 12-mesečnem skupnem obdobju do oktobra 2007 je primanjkljaj trgovinske menjave z nafto znašal 161 milijard EUR (170 milijard EUR v letu prej).
growth rate of export values mainly reflected developments in export volumes.
Razčlenitev blagovne menjave po obsegu in cenah (po podatkih na voljo do oktobra 2007) kaže, da je počasnejša stopnja rasti vrednosti izvoza predvsem posledica gibanj v obsegu izvoza.
Somewhat weaker growth in foreign demand and the appreciation of the euro contributed to the slowdown in extra-euro area exports in the first half of the year.
Nekoliko šibkejša rast tujega povpraševanja in apreciacija eura sta v prvi polovici leta prispevali k upočasnitvi izvoza blaga zunaj euroobmočja.
Nevertheless, these developments may also be seen, to some extent, as a normalisation after a period of exceptionally strong growth at the end of 2006.
Kljub temu si lahko ta gibanja delno razlagamo kot normalizacijo po obdobju izjemno močne rasti ob koncu leta 2006.
Subsequently, growth in export volumes picked up in the third quarter of 2007, largely reflecting a rebound in foreign demand.
Rast obsega izvoza se je povečala v tretjem četrtletju 2007, kar je bilo pretežno posledica okrepljenega tujega povpraševanja.
The geographical breakdown of euro area goods trade shows that exports towards Asia, especially China, and the central and eastern European countries continued to be particularly dynamic in 2007, amid strong economic activity in these regions.
Geografska razčlenitev blagovne menjave euroobmočja kaže, da je bil leta 2007 izvoz v Azijo, predvsem na Kitajsko, in v države srednje ter vzhodne Evrope še naprej zelo dinamičen kljub močni gospodarski aktivnosti v teh regijah. Absolutno gledano se je obseg izvoza v
Export volumes to the United States declined in absolute terms (see Chart 35).
Ta upad je predvsem posledica znižanja neto prilivov portfeljskih naložb v višini 44 milijard EUR, kar se je deloma izravnalo z manjšimi neto odlivi neposrednih naložb v višini 28 milijard EUR (glej graf 36).
Nevertheless, it appears that the appreciation of the euro has so far had a relatively contained impact on euro area export performance, with the latter mainly driven by continued robust growth in foreign demand.
da je imela apreciacija eura do zdaj razmeroma omejen vpliv na izvozno uspešnost euroobmočja, ki je v glavnem posledica trajno visoke rasti tujega povpraševanja.
Meanwhile, export prices grew only moderately, indicating that euro area firms might have adjusted their profit margins to offset the decline in price and cost competitiveness resulting from the euro appreciation.
Medtem je bila rast izvoznih cen skromna, kar nakazuje, da so podjetja v fi tne euroobmočju verjetno prilagodila svoje promarže, da bi izravnala upadanje cenovne in stro- škovne konkurenčnosti zaradi apreciacija eura.
According to the breakdown of trade in goods into volumes and prices, available up to November 2007, the deceleration in the
Na uvozni strani so bili trendi obsega uvoza v letu 2007 podobni obsegu izvoza. Po umir-
(indices: Q1 2004 = 100; seasonally adjusted; three-month moving average) extra-euro area United States United Kingdom OPEC Asia
(indeksi: I 2004 = 100, desezonirano, 3-mese čna drseča sredina) zunaj euroobmočja Z
Source: ECB.Note: Last observation refers to December 2007 except for extra-euro area (November) and the United Kingdom (October).
Vir: ECB.Opomba: Zadnje meritve se nanašajo na december 2007, razen za države zunaj euroobmočja (november) in Združeno kraljestvo (oktober).
NET INFLOWS IN COMBINED DIRECT AND PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT DECREASED IN 2007 In the financial account, the euro area experienced net inflows of €124 billion in combined direct and portfolio investment in
V celoti gledano najnovejši podatki kažejo, da so na finančni račun euroobmočja vplivali pretresi na kreditnih trgih, ki so se začeli avgusta 2007.
Chart 36 Euro area direct and portfolio investment
Graf 36 Neposredne in portfeljske naložbe euroobmočja
1 Net direct investment 2 Net portfolio investment in equities3 Net portfolio investment in debt instruments4 Combined net direct investment and portfolio investment
1 neto neposredne naložbe2 neto portfeljske naložbe v lastniški kapital3 neto portfeljske naložbe v dolžniške instrumente4 skupne neto neposredne in portfeljske naložbe
Source: ECB.Note: Data refer to the yearend except for 2007 (third quarter).
Vira: ECB.Opomba: Podatki se nanašajo na konec leta, razen pri letu 2007 (tretje četrtletje)
2007, compared with net inflows of €140 billion a year earlier. This decline mainly reflected a decrease in net inflows in portfolio investment of €44 billion, which was counterbalanced, to some extent, by lower net outflows in direct investment of €28 billion (see Chart 36).
Kljub rahli okrepitvi v oktobru 2007 je videti, da so po pretresih vlagatelji iz euroobmočja in tujine omejili svoje tuje naložbe v dolžniške in lastniške instrumente, kar je verjetno posledica nekoliko previdnejše naložbene strategije.
All in all, recent data seem to suggest that the financial account of the euro area was affected by the credit market turbulence that began in August 2007.
Pri neposrednih naložbah so nižji neto odlivi v letu 2007 zrcalili predvsem višje prilive neposrednih tujih naložb v euroobmočje.
Lower net inflows of debt securities, amounting to €60 billion as opposed to €124 billion in 2006, accounted for most of the decrease in net portfolio inflows and mainly reflected considerably smaller net purchases of euro area bonds and notes by non-resident investors.
STANJE MEDNARODNIH NALOŽB SE JE LETA 2007 ŠE NAPREJ POSLABŠEVALOPodatki o stanju mednarodnih naložb euroobmočja do tujine, na voljo do tretjega četrtletja 2007, kažejo, da je euroobmočje imelo neto obveznosti do tujine v višini 1,299 milijard EUR (14,8% BDP euroobmočja), medtem ko so te obveznosti ob koncu leta 2006 znašale 1,024 milijard EUR oz, 12,1% BDP (glej graf 37).
After a sharp increase in the early part of the year, net inflows in debt instruments subsequently subsided.
Rezerve so ostale v glavnem nespremenjene.
Turning to direct investment, the lower net outflows in 2007 primarily reflected higher foreign direct investment inflows into the euro area.
Na podlagi skupnih tokov v štirih četrtletjih do tretjega četrtletja 2007 so bili glavni prejemniki neposrednih naložb euroobmo čja Z
In addition, euro area firms may have been taking advantage of the strengthening of the euro to buy assets abroad.
Z dru- ča, ženo kraljestvo, eksteritorialna finančna sredi š Švica in države, ki so v EU vstopile od leta 2004,
As for equity securities, the euro area registered higher net inflows in 2007, amounting to €175 billion as opposed to €153 billion in 2006.
Na splošno je povečanje neto mednarodnih obveznosti euroobmočja v glavnem izhajalo iz revalorizacijskih učinkov, ki so bili posledica sprememb v cenah fi nančnih sredstev in gibanj v tečaju eura.
This was mainly the result of considerably smaller net purchases of foreign equity by euro area residents (down from €156 billion to €50 billion), which were only partly offset by lower purchases of euro area equity by foreign investors.
Zaradi apreciacije eura se vrednost imetij v eurih običajno zmanjša bolj kot vrednost obveznosti, kar povzroča povečanje neto dolžniške pozicije.
3ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN NON-EURO AREA EU MEMBER STATES
3GOSPODARSKAIN DENARNA GIBANJA V DRŽAVAH ČLANICAH EU ZUNAJ EUROOBMOČJA
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Real GDP growth in the noneuro area EU Member States remained robust in 2007 rapid credit growth and an expansionary fiscal stance also contributed to robust growth in domestic demand.
GOSPODARSKA AKTIVNOST Realna rast BDP v državah članicah EU zunaj nic sta k močni rasti domačega povpraševanja prispevala tudi hitra rast kreditov in ekspanzivna fiskalna politika.
(see Table 6).9While this pattern of strong economic activity was widely observed across countries, annual growth rates differed considerably.
euroobmočja je bila leta 2007 še naprej močna (glej tabelo 6).9 Čeprav je bila močna gospodar- ska aktivnost dosežena v vseh državah, so se medletne stopnje rasti močno razlikovale.
Annual average real GDP growth was highest in the Baltic States and Slovakia, where it stood around 8%.
Povprečna medletna realna rast BDP je bila najvišja v baltskih državah in na Slovaškem, kjer je dosegla 8% ali več.
In the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania, annual average real GDP growth was also very strong, at between 6.0% and 6.5%.
Tudi na Češkem, Poljskem in v Romuniji je bila povprečna medletna realna rast BDP zelo močna (med 6,0% in 6,5%).
Real GDP growth was lowest in Denmark and Hungary, at 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
Realna rast BDP je bila najnižja na Danskem in Madžarskem, in sicer 1,8% oziroma 1,3%.
In Cyprus, Malta, Sweden and the United Kingdom, growth remained robust between 2.8% and 4.4%.
Na Cipru, Malti, Švedskem in v Združenem kraljestvu pa je rast ostala okrepljena na ravni med 2,8% in 4,4%.
Net exports contributed negatively to growth in most noneuro area EU Member States, despite solid growth in foreign demand, as strong demand for imports outpaced export growth.
Neto izvoz je imel v večini držav članic EU zunaj euroobmočja negativen vpliv na rast kljub razmeroma visoki rasti tujega povpraševanja, saj je močno povpraševanje po uvozu prehitevalo rast izvoza.
The contribution of net exports to real GDP growth was significantly positive only in Hungary, Malta, Slovakia and Sweden.
Prispevek neto izvoza k realni rasti BDP je bil zelo pozitiven samo na Madžarskem, Malti, Slovaškem in Švedskem.
Overall, export growth in 2007 remained robust, although it decelerated in most countries compared with 2006.
Na splošno je ostala rast izvoza leta 2007 močna, čeprav se je v primerjavi z letom 2006 v večini držav zmanjšala.
Growth in exports was supported by strong demand in key trading partners and sizeable foreign direct investment inflows in recent years, while strong import growth was underpinned by robust domestic demand and the relatively high import content of exports.
Na rast izvoza sta pozitivno vplivala močno povpraševanje pri ključnih trgovinskih partnericah in izrazit priliv neposrednih tujih investicij v zadnjih letih, medtem ko sta močno rast uvoza spodbujala močno domače povpraševanje in razmeroma velik delež uvoza v izvozu.
The noneuro area EU Member States referred to in this section comprise the 14 EU Member States outside the euro area in the period to the end of December 2007 (i.e. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden and the United Kingdom).
Med državami članicami EU zunaj euroobmočja, ki so obravnavane v tem poglavju, je 14 držav članic EU zunaj euroobmočja v obdobju do konca decembra 2007 (Bolgarija, Češka, Danska, Estonija, Ciper, Latvija, Litva, Madžarska, Malta, Poljska, Romunija, Slovaška, Švedska in Združeno kraljestvo).
In most noneuro area EU Member States, economic activity was driven by domestic demand.
V večini držav članic EU zunaj euroobmočja je bilo glavno gonilo gospodarske aktivnosti domače povpraševanje.
Private consumption was spurred by increasing gains in real disposable income, associated with accelerated wage increases and rising employment.
Zasebno potrošnjo je spodbujala rast realnega razpoložljivega dohodka, povezana s pospešeno rastjo plač in vse večjo zaposlenostjo.
Growth in gross fixed capital formation benefited inter alia from an extended period of favourable financing conditions and a stronger inflow of EU structural funds in many countries.
Na rast bruto investicij v osnovna sredstva sta med drugim pozitivno vplivala dolgotrajno obdobje ugodnih pogojev fi nanciranja in močnejši priliv strukturnih skladov EU v številnih državah.
In the majority of countries,
V večini držav čla-
Table 6 Real GDP growth in the noneuro area EU Member States and the euro area
Tabela 6 Rast realnega BDP v državah članicah EU, ki niso del euroobmočja, in v euroobmočju
Note: Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted with the exception of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Malta and Romania (not seasonally adjusted) and Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom (seasonally and working day-adjusted).1) The EU11 aggregate refers to the 11 countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 and 1 January 2007 (with the exception of Slovenia).
Opomba: Četrtletni podatki so desezonirani z izjemo Bolgarije, Češke, Malte in Romunije (nedesezonirani) ter Madžarske, Poljske,Švedske in Združenega kraljestva (desezonirani in prilagojeni za število delovnih dni).1) Agregat EU-11 vključuje podatke za 11 držav, ki so v EU vstopile 1. maja 2004 in 1. januarja 2007 (razen Slovenije).
2) The EU14 aggregate refers to the 14 noneuro area EU Member States as at 31 December 2007.
2) Agregat EU-14 vključuje podatke za 14 držav članic EU zunaj euroobmočja na dan 31. decembra 2007.
Average inflation was below 2% in Denmark, Malta, Slovakia and Sweden in 2007, but picked up also in these countries towards the yearend owing primarily to increasing import prices for food and energy.
Povprečna inflacija je bila leta 2007 pod 2% na Danskem, Malti, Slovaškem in Švedskem, vendar se je proti koncu leta zvišala tudi v teh državah, predvsem zaradi rasti uvoznih cen hrane in energentov.
The upward trend in inflation in the noneuro area EU Member States in 2007 was partly attributable to a significant increase in energy and food prices.
Naraščanje infl acije v državah članicah EU zunaj euroobmočja leta 2007 gre deloma pripisati močnemu zvišanju cen energentov in hrane.
In addition, rapid growth in domestic demand in the majority of the countries contributed to underlyinginfl ationary pressures.
V večini držav pa je k inflacijskim pritiskom prispevala hitra rast domačega povpraševanja.