natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
In this sense, the monitoring of asset prices might help to identify shocks that are currently hitting the economy, in particular shocks to expectations about future economic developments.
Tako lahko s spremljanjem cen finančnega premoženja ugotovimo, kakšni šoki trenutno vplivajo na celotno gospodarstvo in še posebno na pričakovanja o prihodnjih gospodarskih
Developments in the exchange rate are also closely assessed for their implications for price stability.
Natančno ocenjujemo še tečajna gibanja in njihove posledice za stabilnost cen.
Exchange rate movements have a direct effect on price developments through their impact on import prices.
Tečajna gibanja imajo prek uvoznih cen neposreden učinek na oblikovanje cen.
Although the euro area is a relatively closed economy compared with its individual member countries, import prices do affect domestic producer and consumer price developments.
Čeprav je euroobmočje relativno zaprto gospodarstvo v primerjavi s posameznimi državami članicami tega območja, uvozne cene vseeno vplivajo na gibanje domačih cen pri proizvajalcih in cen življenjskih potrebščin.
Changes in the exchange rate may also alter the price competitiveness of domestically produced goods on international markets, thereby influencing demand conditions and, potentially, the outlook for prices.
Spremembe v deviznih tečajih lahko vplivajo tudi na cenovno konkurenčnost doma proizvedenega blaga na mednarodnih trgih ter s tem na povpraševanje in verjetno tudi na obete glede cenovnih gibanj.
the medium term. In the case of excessive wage increases, there is the danger that a self-sustaining spiral of higher costs, higher prices and higher wage demands may be created.
previsoke rasti plač pa obstaja nevarnost, da nastane nenehno vzpenjajoča se spirala višjih stroškov, višjih cen in zahtev po višjih plačah.
To prevent such a spiral from occurring, a strong monetary policy action to reaffirm the central bank’s commitment to the maintenance of price stability, thereby helping to stabilise inflation expectations, may be the best response.
Da bi preprečili nastanek take spirale, se mora denarna politika odzvati z odločnimi ukrepi, ki naj ponovno potrdijo zavezanost centralne banke k ohranjanju cenovne stabilnosti, ter tako prispeva k umirjanju inflacijskih pričakovanj.
… helps to reveal the nature of shocks … In this analysis, due attention is paid to the need to identify the origin and the nature of shocks hitting the economy, their effects on cost and pricing behaviour and the short to mediumterm prospects for their propagation in the economy.
Za sprejemanje ustreznih odločitev mora imeti Svet ECB celovit pregled nad prevladujočimi gospodarskimi razmerami in mora biti seznanjen s specifično naravo in obsegom vseh motenj v gospodarstvu, ki bi lahko ogrozile stabilnost cen.
To take appropriate decisions, the Governing Council needs to have a comprehensive understanding of the prevailing economic situation and must be aware of the specific nature and magnitude of any economic disturbances threatening price stability.
Tako na primer ustrezen odziv denarne politike na učinek, ki ga ima začasno povišanje svetovnih cen nafte na inflacijo, ni nujno enak ustreznemu odzivu na povišanje inflacije zaradi višjih stroškov dela, torej zaradi rasti plač, ki ni v skladu z rastjo produktivnosti.
THE ECB’S MONETARY close to, 2 % as the best prediction of medium and long-term price developments.
DENARNA odstotkoma, vendar blizu tej ravni, kot najboljši napovedi srednjeročnih in dolgoročnih cenovnih gibanj.
… and includes macroeconomic projections In the context of the economic analysis, the Eurosystem’s staff macroeconomic projection exercises play an important role.The projections, which are produced by the staff, help to structure and summarise a large amount of economic data and ensure consistency across different sources of economic evidence.
… in vključuje makroekonomske projekcije V okviru ekonomske analize imajo makroekonomske projekcije strokovnjakov Eurosistema pomembno vlogo. S pomočjo projekcij lahko strukturiramo in združimo veliko količino ekonomskih podatkov ter zagotovimo združljivost med različnimi viri podatkov.
In this respect, they area key element in sharpening the assessment of economic prospects and the short to mediumterm fluctuations of inflation around its trend.
V tem pogledu so projekcije ključni element pri izostritvi ugotovitev o prihajajočih gospodarskih obetih ter kratkoročnih in srednjeročnih nihanjih inflacije okrog osrednjega trenda.
BOX 5.7 EURO AREA MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
OKVIR 5.7 MAKROEKONOMSKE PROJEKCIJE EUROOBMOČJA
Although they play a useful role, the staff macroeconomic projections have their limitations.
Z uporabo besede »projekcije« skušamo poudariti dejstvo, da so te napovedi rezultat scenarija, ki temelji na vrsti tehničnih predpostavk.
First, the final projection depends to a considerable extent on the underlying conceptual framework and the techniques employed.
Od junija 2006 dalje projekcije Eurosistema temeljijo na tehnični predpostavki, da se bodo kratkoročne tržne obrestne mere gibale skladno s tržnimi pričakovanji, ne pa da bodo v obdobju projekcij ostale nespremenjene, kot so predvidevale prejšnje projekcije.
Any such framework is bound to be a simplification of reality and may, on occasion, neglect the key issues that are relevant for monetary policy.
Kljub temu, da so makroekonomske projekcije strokovnjakov Eurosistema koristne, imajo določene omejitve.
Second, economic projections can only provide a summary description of the economy, and thus do not incorporate all relevant information.
Prvič, končne projekcije so precej odvisne od izbranega konceptualnega okvira in uporabljenih tehnik.
In particular, important information, such as that contained in monetary aggregates, is not easily integrated into the framework used to produce the projections, or information may change after the projections are finalised.
Vsak tak okvir nujno poenostavlja realna dogajanja in lahko včasih zanemarja ključna vprašanja, ki so pomembna za denarno politiko.
Third, expert views are inevitably incorporated into projections, and there can be good reasons not to agree with particular views.
Drugič, ekonomske projekcije lahko opišejo gospodarstvo samo v zgoščeni obliki in tako ne vključujejo vseh relevantnih informacij.
Fourth, projections are always based on specific assumptions – such as those concerning oil prices or exchange rates – which can change rapidly, making the projections outdated.
V okvir za izdelavo projekcij je še posebno težko vključiti pomembne informacije, ki jih na primer vsebujejo denarni agregati, ali pa se te informacije spremenijo, potem ko so projekcije že izdelane.
The word “projections” is used in order to emphasise that the published projections are the results of a scenario based on a set of underlying technical assumptions.
Tretjič, mnenja strokovnjakov so neogibno del projekcij, pri čemer se s posameznimi pogledi iz utemeljenih razlogov ni mogoče vedno strinjati.
In particular, since June 2006, the Eurosystem projections are based on the technical assumption that shortterm market interest rates move in line with market expectations rather than, as previously assumed, remain constant over the projection horizon.
Četrtič, projekcije vedno temeljijo na določenih predpostavkah (na primer predpostavke o cenah nafte in tečajih), ki se lahko hitro spreminjajo in projekcije tako postanejo zastarele.
While such projections are often used to best inform monetary policy decision-makers about the outcome of possible future scenarios, this does not necessarily imply that the scenario will materialise in practice.
Medtem ko projekcije nosilcem odločitev o denarni politiki omogočajo, da pridobijo čim več informacij o tem, kakšna bi bila lahko prihodnja gibanja, to ne pomeni, da se bo takšen scenarij dejansko uresničil.
The macroeconomic projections of inflation by Eurosystem staff should not, under any circumstances, be seen as questioning the commitment of the Governing Council to maintaining price stability over the medium term.
Zato makroekonomske projekcije inflacije, ki jih pripravlja Eurosistem, v nobenem primeru ne izražajo dvoma o zavezanosti Sveta ECB k ohranjanju stabilnosti cen v srednjeročnem obdobju.
Wage and price-setters (i.e. the government, firms and households) should rely on the ECB’s quantitative definition of price stability and especially the aim to keep inflation below, but
Vsi, ki določajo plače in cene (vlada, podjetja in gospodinjstva), bi se morali ravnati po številčni opredelitvi stabilnosti cen in si predvsem prizadevati, da vzdržujejo inflacijo pod 2
For all these reasons, staff macroeconomic projections play an important but not allencompassing role in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.
Čeprav imajo makroekonomske projekcije strokovnjakov pomembno vlogo v strategiji denarne politike ECB, njihova vloga zaradi teh razlogov ni prevladujoča.
The Governing Council evaluates them together with many other pieces of information and forms of analysis organised within the two-pillar framework.
Svet ECB jih ovrednoti skupaj s številnimi drugimi informacijami in analizami, ki so tudi del dvostebrnega okvira.
These include monetary analysis and analyses of financial prices, individual indicators and the forecasts of other institutions.
Mednje sodijo denarna analiza, analize cen finančnih sredstev, posamezni kazalci in napovedi drugih institucij.
The Governing Council neither assumes responsibility for the projections nor uses the staff projections as its only tool for organising and communicating its assessment.
Svet ECB ne prevzema odgovornosti za projekcije in jih ne uporablja kot edino orodje za urejanje in sporočanje svojih ugotovitev.
Therefore, assigning money a prominent role in the strategy was also a tool used to underpin its mediumterm orientation.
DENARNA ANALIZA denarju je zato tudi orodje, ki potrjuje srednjeročno usmeritev strategije.
Indeed, taking policy decisions and evaluating their consequences – not only on the basis of the shortterm indications stemming from the analysis of economic and financial conditions, but also on the basis of monetary and liquidity considerations – allows a central bank to see beyond the transient impact of the various shocks and not to be tempted to take an overly activist course.
Sprejemanje odločitev in ocenjevanje posledic ne samo na podlagi kratkoročnih kazalcev, ki izhajajo iz analize gospodarskih in finančnih razmer, ampak tudi na podlagi gibanj denarja in likvidnosti, tako omogoča centralnim bankam, da imajo širši pregled nad dogajanjem, ki presega kratkotrajne vplive različnih šokov, ter jim pomaga, da se vzdržijo pretirano aktivnega delovanja.
Money provides a nominal anchor The ECB singles out money from within the set of selected key indicators that it monitors and studies closely.
Denar zagotavlja nominalno sidro ECB v sklopu izbranih ključnih kazalcev, ki jih natančno spremlja in preučuje, posebno pozornost posveča denarju.
This decision was made in recognition of the fact that monetary growth and inflation are closely related in the medium to long run (see also Section 4.5).
Takšna odločitev temelji na ugotovitvi, da sta v srednjeročnem in dolgoročnem obdobju rast denarja in inflacija tesno povezani (gl. tudi razdelek 4.5).
This widely accepted relationship provides monetary policy with a firm and reliable nominal anchor beyond the horizons conventionally adopted to construct inflation forecasts.
To splošno sprejeto razmerje daje denarni politiki trdno in zanesljivo nominalno sidro tudi za obdobje, ki presega običajni razpon inflacijskih napovedi. Dodelitev osrednje vloge
M1 includes currency, i.e. banknotes and coins, as well as balances that can immediately be converted into currency or used for cashless payments, such as overnight deposits.
M1 obsega gotovino (bankovce in kovance) ter stanja, ki jih je mogoče takoj pretvoriti v gotovino ali uporabiti za brezgotovinska plačila, na primer depoziti čez noč.
Given that many different financial assets are close substitutes, and that the nature and characteristics of financial assets, transactions and means of payment are changing over time, it is not always clear how money should be defined and which financial assets belong to which definition of money.
Glede na to, da so si številna različna finančna sredstva približno enakovredna ter da se narava in značilnosti finančnih sredstev, transakcij in plačilnih sredstev sčasoma spreminjajo, ni vedno jasno, kako opredeliti denar in katera finančna sredstva vključiti v posamezno definicijo denarja.
Central banks usually define and monitor several monetary aggregates.
Centralne banke običajno opredelijo in spremljajo več denarnih agregatov.
M2 comprises M1 and, in addition, deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years or redeemable at a period of notice of up to three months.
M2 poleg M1 obsega vezane vloge z ročnostjo do dveh let oziroma vloge na odpoklic do treh mesecev.
These deposits can be converted into components of narrow money, but some restrictions may apply, such as the need for advance notification, penalties and fees.
Te vloge je mogoče spremeniti v posamezne sestavine ožjega denarja, vendar zato obstajajo določene omejitve, kot na primer obveznost predhodne najave, penale ali plačilo nadomestila.
The ECB’s definitions of euro area monetary aggregates are based on harmonised definitions of the money-issuing sector and the money-holding sector, as well as of categories of monetary financial institution (MFI) liabilities.
Opredelitve denarnih agregatov za euroobmočje, ki jih uporablja ECB, temeljijo na usklajenih definicijah denarnega in nedenarnega sektorja ter kategorijah obveznosti denarnih finančnih institucij.
The money-issuing sector comprises MFIs resident in the euro area.
Denarni sektor obsega denarne finančne institucije s sedežem v euroobmočju.
The money-holding sector includes all non-MFIs resident in the euro area, excluding the central government sector.
Nedenarni sektor vključuje vse nefinančne družbe in druge finančne organizacije s sedežem v euroobmočju z izjemo ožje opredeljene države.
M3 comprises M2 and certain marketable instruments issued by the resident MFI sector.
M3 obsega M2 in nekatere tržne instrumente, ki jih izdajajo denarne finančne institucije s sedežem v euroobmočju.
Based on conceptual considerations and empirical studies, and in line with international practice, the Eurosystem has defined a narrow (M1), an intermediate (M2) and a broad monetary aggregate (M3).
Na podlagi idejnih izhodišč in empiričnih raziskav ter v skladu z mednarodno prakso je Eurosistem opredelil ožji denarni agregat (M1), »vmesni« denarni agregat (M2) in širši denarni agregat (M3).
These aggregates differ with regard to the degree of liquidity of the assets they include.
Ti agregati se med sabo razlikujejo glede na stopnjo likvidnosti sredstev, ki jih vključujejo.
Holdings by euro area residents of liquid assets denominated in foreign currencies can be close substitutes for eurodenominated assets.
Likvidna sredstva v tuji valuti, ki jih imajo rezidenti euroobmočja, so lahko približno enakovredna sredstvom, ki so denominirana v eurih.
Therefore, the monetary aggregates include such assets if they are held with MFIs located in the euro area.
Denarni agregati zato vključujejo taka sredstva, če so naložena pri denarnih finančnih institucijah v euroobmočju.
The reference value for monetary growth In order to signal its commitment to monetary analysis and to provide a benchmark for the assessment of monetary developments, the ECB announced a reference value for the broad monetary aggregate M3 (see Box 5.9).
Referenčna vrednost za rast denarnega agregata ECB je z namenom, da opozori na svojo zavezanost k denarni analizi in zagotovi primerjalno osnovo za oceno denarnih gibanj, objavila referenčno vrednost za rast širšega denarnega agregata M3 (gl. okvir 5.9).
BOX 5.9 THE ECB’S REFERENCE VALUE FOR MONETARY GROWTH
OKVIR 5.9 REFERENČNA VREDNOST ECB ZA RAST DENARJA denarja je potrebnega za vzdrževanje določene ravni nominalnih transakcij.
The prominent role assigned to money in the ECB’s strategy is signalled by the announcement of a reference value for the growth of the broad monetary aggregate M3.The choice of M3 is based on the evidence, supported by several empirical studies, that this aggregate possesses the desired properties of a stable money demand and leading indicator properties for future price developments in the euro area.
ECB je na pomembno vlogo, ki jo ima denar v njeni strategiji, opozorila z objavo referenčne vrednosti za rast širšega denarnega agregata M3. Izbira M3 temelji na ugotovitvah številnih empiričnih študij, ki kažejo, da imata agregat lastnosti stabilnega povpraševanja po denarju ter značilnosti vodilnega indikatorja, ki kaže prihodnja cenovna gibanja v euroobmočju.
The reference value for the growth of M3 has been derived so as to be consistent with the achievement of price stability.
Določena je bila takšna referenčna vrednost za rast denarnega agregata M3, ki je skladna s ciljem cenovne stabilnosti.
Substantial or prolonged deviations of monetary growth from the reference value would, under normal circumstances, signal risks to price stability over the medium term.
Občutnejša in dolgotrajnejša odstopanja rasti denarja od referenčne vrednosti bi morala v normalnih okoliščinah opozarjati na nastanek tveganj za stabilnost cen.
The reference value embodies the definition of price stability as an increase in the HICP for the euro area of below 2 % per annum.
Referenčna vrednost vključuje opredelitev cenovne stabilnosti, določene kot medletno povečanje HICP v euroobmočju, ki je manjše kot 2 odstotka.
Furthermore, the derivation of the reference value has been based on mediumterm assumptions regarding potential output growth and the trend in the velocity of circulation of M3.
Poleg tega temelji izpeljava referenčne vrednosti tudi na srednjeročnih predpostavkah o potencialni rasti proizvoda in trendu hitrosti kroženja denarnega agregata M3.
In 1998 an assumption of 2 % – 2½ % per annum was made for the mediumterm trend in real potential GDP growth for the euro area, reflecting estimates from both international organisations and the ECB.
Leta 1998 smo predpostavili, da bo v euroobmočju srednjeročni trend realne potencialne rasti BDP znašal 2–2½ odstotka letno, kar odraža ocene mednarodnih organizacij in ECB.
Various approaches were employed to derive the assumption for velocity of circulation, taking into account simple (univariate) trends as well as information available from more complex money demand models.
Pri izpeljavi predpostavke o hitrosti kroženja denarja smo uporabili različne pristope ob upoštevanju enostavnih trendov ter informacij, ki jih dajejo bolj kompleksni modeli povpraševanja po denarju.
Taken together, the results of these approaches pointed to a decline of M3 velocity in the range of ½ % – 1 % per annum.
Glede na rezultat, ki so ga pokazali vsi pristopi skupaj, se bo hitrost kroženja M3 zmanjšala za ½–1 odstotka letno.
On the basis of these assumptions, the ECB’s reference value was set at 4½ % per annum by the Governing Council in December 1998, and has not changed since.The Governing Council monitors the validity of the conditions and assumptions underlying the reference value, and communicates any changes to the underlying assumptions as soon as they become necessary.
Na podlagi teh predpostavk je Svet ECB decembra leta 1998 določil referenčno vrednost kot 4½ odstotka letno in od takrat še ni bila spremenjena. Svet ECB ves čas spremlja, ali so razmere in predpostavke, na katerih temelji referenčna vrednost, še vedno veljavni, in sporoča kakršne koli spremembe v temeljnih predpostavkah takoj, ko so takšne spremembe potrebne.
The derivation of the reference value is based on the relationship between (changes in) monetary growth ( M), inflation ( P), real GDP growth ( YR) and velocity ( V).
Izpeljava referenčne vrednosti temelji na razmerju med rastjo denarja oziroma spremembami v stopnji rasti ( M), inflacijo ( P), realno rastjo BDP ( YR) in hitrostjo kroženja denarja.
According to this identity, which is widely known as the “quantity equation”, the change in money in an economy equals the change in nominal transactions (approximated by the change in real GDP plus the change in inflation) minus the change in velocity (see also Box 4.3).The latter variable can be defined as the speed with which money is transferred between different money holders, and thus determines how much money is required to service a particular level of nominal transactions.
Po tej definiciji, ki je splošno znana kot Fisherjeva enačba, je sprememba v količini denarja v nekem gospodarstvu enaka spremembi v nominalnih transakcijah (ki se približno ocenijo kot sprememba v realnem BDP plus sprememba v inflaciji) minus sprememba v hitrosti kroženja denarja (gl. tudi okvir 4.3). Zadnjo spremenljivko lahko opredelimo kot hitrost, s katero denar prehaja od enega uporabnika k drugemu, in tako določa, koliko
CROSS-CHECKING INFORMATION FROM THE TWOPILLARS
NAVZKRIŽNA PRIMERJAVA PODATKOV IZ OBEH STEBROV
This reference value (which was set to a value of 4½ % in 1998) refers to the annual rate of M3 growth that is deemed to be compatible with pricestability over the medium term.
Ta referenčna vrednost (v letu 1998 je bila določena na ravni 4½ odstotka) pomeni medletno stopnjo rasti M3, ki naj bi bila skladna s stabilnostjo cen v srednjeročnem obdobju.
The reference valuetherefore represents a benchmark for analysing theinformationcontent of monetary developments inthe euro area.
Referenčna vrednost torej predstavlja izhodišče, ki se uporablja pri analizi denarnih gibanj v euroobmočju.
Owing to the medium to long-termnature of the monetary perspective, however, there is no direct link between shortterm monetary developments and monetary policy decisions. Monetary policy does not, therefore, react mechanically to deviations of M3 growth from thereference value.
Zaradi srednjeročne oziroma dolgoročne usmeritve denarne politike ni neposredne povezave med kratkoročnimi denarnimi gibanji in odločitvami denarne politike, zato se denarna politika na odstopanja rasti M3 od referenčne vrednosti ne odziva mehanično.
Regarding the Governing Council’s decisions on theappropriate stance of monetary policy, the two-pillarapproach provides a cross-check of the indicationsthat stem from the shorter-term economic analysiswith those from the longerterm oriented monetaryanalysis.
Ko Svet ECB določa ustrezno naravnanost denarne politike, v okviru dvostebrnega pristopa navzkrižno primerja informacije iz kratkoročnejše ekonomske analize z informacijami iz dolgoročnejše usmerjene denarne analize.
Asexplainedin moredetailabove, thiscross-check ensures that monetary policy does not overlook important information relevant for assessing future price trends.
Kot smo razložili zgoraj, navzkrižna primerjava zagotavlja, da denarna politika upošteva vse relevantne informacije, ki so potrebne za ugotavljanje prihodnjih cenovnih gibanj.
All complementaritiesbetween the two pillars are exploited, as this is thebest way to ensure that all the relevant informationfor assessing price prospects is used in a consistentand efficient manner, facilitating both the decisionmaking process and its communication (see the chart below).
Analiza izkorišča vse, kar oba stebra dopolnjuje, saj je to najboljši način, da se pri ocenjevanju cenovnih obetov konsistentno in učinkovito vključijo vse potrebne informacije, sprejemanje odločitev in seznanjanje javnosti s temi odločitvami pa je tako lažje (gl. sliko spodaj).
This approach reduces the risk of policy error caused by the over-reliance on a single indicator, forecast or model.
Tak pristop zmanjšuje tveganje, da bi pri oblikovanju politike prišlo do napak zaradi prevelikega zanašanja na en sam kazalec, napoved ali model.
By taking a diversified approach to the interpretation of economic conditions, the ECB’s strategy aims at adopting arobust monetary policy in an uncertain environment.
Strategija ECB skuša z raznolikim pristopom k analizi gospodarskih razmer oblikovati takšno denarno politiko, ki bo v negotovih gospodarskih razmerah zanesljiva.
CHART THE STABILITY-ORIENTED MONETARYPOLICYSTRATEGYOF THEECB
SLIKA: STABILNOST NA USMERITEV STRATEGIJE DENARNE POLITIKE ECB