natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
We now need to understand what happens if these other factors change.
Zdaj moramo razumeti, kaj se zgodi, če se spremeni kateri od teh ostalih dejavnikov.
In essence, such changes shift the curves to the right or the left.
V osnovi take spremembe premaknejo krivulji levo ali desno.
CHART 3 SHIFTS IN AGGREGATE DEMAND AND LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY
GRAF 3: PREMIKI SKUPNEGA POVPRAŠEVANJA IN SKUPNE DOLGOROČNE PONUDBE
Regarding aggregate supply, we can see that increases in the prices of production factors, such as wages, or increases in oil prices will lead to a shift to the left in aggregate supply.
Pri skupni ponudbi vidimo, da dvig cen proizvodnih dejavnikov, kot so plače, ali dvig cen nafte, povzroči premik skupne ponudbe v levo.
On the other hand, technological progress or increases in productivity will shift aggregate supply to the right, as this allows for more production at the same cost with a given quantity of labour input.
Nasprotno tehnološki napredek ali izboljšanje produktivnosti krivuljo skupne ponudbe premakne v desno, saj te spremembe ob dani ravni inputov dela omogočajo večji obseg proizvodnje ob istih stroških.
This analysis shows that changes in the general price level can be brought about by shifts in either the supply curve or the demand curve or in both.
Spremembe v splošni ravni cen lahko torej povzročijo premik krivulje ponudbe ali krivulje povpraševanja ali pa obeh.
For instance, if all other factors remain stable, a decline in aggregate supply (i.e. a shift of AS to the left) will be accompanied by a shortterm fall in real output and an increase in prices, whereas an increase in demand (i.e. a shift of AD to the right) will manifest itself in higher shortterm real activity and higher prices.
Na primer, ob nespremenjenih ostalih dejavnikih bo padec skupne ponudbe (premik krivulje AS v levo) spremljal kratkoročen padec realnega proizvoda, dvig povpraševanja (premik krivulje AD v desno) pa se bo izrazil v višji kratkoročni realni aktivnosti in višjih cenah.
Inflation was defined as a general, or broadly-based, increase in the prices of goods and services.
Inflacija je opredeljena kot splošno ali vseobsežno povečanje cen blaga in storitev.
Therefore, a process of inflation can only be brought about by a continuing increase in aggregate demand over time.This, in turn, is only possible if monetary policy accommodates such a development by keeping interest rates low and money growth high.
Inflacijski proces se zato lahko razvije samo ob stalnem naraščanju skupnega povpraševanja v daljšem časovnem obdobju. To je po drugi strani mogoče samo v primeru, če denarna politika dopušča takšna gibanja z ohranjanjem nizkih obrestnih mer in visoke denarne rasti.
The long-run model illustrates that the behaviour of aggregate demand is crucial in determining the general price level that an economy experiences in the long run.
Iz dolgoročnega modela je razvidno, daje gibanje skupnega povpraševanja ključno pri določanju splošne ravni cen, ki bo v gospodarstvu prisotna na dolgi rok.
If the aggregate supply curve is vertical, changes in aggregate demand will affect prices but not output.
Če je krivulja skupne ponudbe navpična, bodo spremembe v skupnem povpraševanju vplivale na cene, ne pa na proizvodnjo.
If, for instance, money supply were to increase, the aggregate demand curve would shift to the right and the economy would thus, in the long run, shift to a new equilibrium where real production has remained the same but prices have risen.
Če se npr. poveča ponudba denarja, se bo krivulja skupnega povpraševanja premaknila v desno, gospodarstvo pa bo na dolgi rok doseglo novo ravnovesno stanje, v katerem je realno proizvod ostal nespremenjen, cene pa so višje.
11 Economists often express a decline in money demand in terms of an increase in the velocity of money.
12 Ekonomisti padec povpraševanja po denarju pogosto izrazijo kot povečanje hitrosti kroženja denarja.
In fact these two phenomena must be regarded as two different sides of the same coin. If people want to hold less money, the
To spremenljivko je mogoče opredeliti kot hitrost, s katero denar prehaja med
FACTORS DRIVING PRICE DEVELOPMENTS OVER SHORTER-TERM HORIZONS
DEJAVNIKI, KI USMERJAJO CENOVNA GIBANJA NA KRATKI ROK
Price increases that arise because of an increase in aggregate demand may result from any individual factor that increases aggregate demand, but the most significant of these factors, besides monetary policy (increases in the money supply), are increases in government purchases, depreciation of the exchange rate and increased demand pressures for domestic goods from the rest of the world (exports).
Dvig cen zaradi povečanja skupnega povpraševanja lahko povzroči kateri koli od dejavnikov, ki povzročajo dvig cen, vendar so poleg denarne politike (povečanje ponudbe denarja) najpomembnejši povečanje državnega trošenja, depreciacija deviznega tečaja in večje povpraševanje po domačih dobrinah v ostalih delih sveta (izvoz).
Changes in aggregate demand can also be caused by increased confidence.
Spremembe v skupnem povpraševanju lahko tudi okrepijo zaupanje.
It is likely, for example, that firms will invest more if higher profits can be expected in the future.
Tako je na primer verjetno, da bodo podjetja investirala več, če v prihodnosti pričakujejo večje dobičke.
Changes in aggregate demand will normally increase the price level and, temporarily, aggregate production (see Box 4.2).
Spremembe v skupnem povpraševanju navadno povzročijo dvig ravni cen in začasno povečanje skupne proizvodnje (gl. okvir 4.2).
What precisely are the factors leading to a reduction in aggregate supply and thus to higher prices in the short run?
Kateri dejavniki povzročajo zmanjšanje skupne ponudbe in s tem višje kratkoročne cene?
The main sources of falling aggregate supply are decreases in productivity, increases in production costs (for instance, increases in real wages and in the prices of raw materials, notably oil), and higher corporate taxes imposed by governments.
Glavni razlogi za zmanjšanje skupne ponudbe so zmanjšanje produktivnosti, višji proizvodni stroški (npr. višje realne plače in cene surovin, predvsem nafte) in višji davki za podjetja.
If all other factors remain the same, the higher the cost of production, the smaller the amount produced at the same price.
Če vsi ostali dejavniki ostanejo nespremenjeni, višji stroški proizvodnje pomenijo, da se bo ob istih cenah obseg proizvodnje zmanjšal.
In the following, we will investigate some factors driving shortterm price developments.As explained in more detail in Box 4.2, inflation (i.e. a sustained increase in the price level) could be caused in either one or two ways.
V naslednjem razdelku bomo predstavili nekatere dejavnike, ki določajo kratkoročna cenovna gibanja.
Prices in general will rise if, on average, either aggregate demand increases or supply decreases.
Kot smo pojasnili v okviru 4.2, lahko inflacijo (tj. trajno rast ravni cen) povzroči eden ali drugi proces ali pa oba, z drugimi besedami, cene bodo na splošno zrasle, če se v povprečju skupno povpraševanje poveča ali pa se ponudba zmanjša.
To put it differently, inflationary pressures can result if there are changes (economists often speak of “shocks” if there are unexpected changes in economic developments) which lead consumers to increase their expenditure or firms to reduce their production.The first instance, where demand increases, resulting in inflation, is often described as “demand-pull inflation” in the economic literature.
Inflacijski pritiski se torej lahko razvijejo, kadar spremembe (če so premiki v gospodarskih gibanjih nepričakovani, ekonomisti pogosto govorijo o »šokih«) potrošnike spodbudijo, da trošijo več, podjetja pa, da proizvajajo manj.
The second instance, where costs increase and supply therefore decreases, thus also resulting in inflation, is often labelled as “cost-push inflation”.
Prvi primer, pri katerem se povpraševanje poveča in povzroči inflacijo, označujemo z izrazom »inflacija povpraševanja« (demand-pull inflation), drugi, kjer se stroški povečajo, ponudba pa ustrezno zmanjša, pa z izrazom »stroškovna inflacija« (cost-push inflation).
The opposite happens, i.e. deflationary pressures emerge, if aggregate demand falls or aggregate supply increases.
Nasprotno se deflacijski pritiski razvijejo v primeru, da se skupno povpraševanje zmanjša ali skupna ponudba poveča.
In general, monetary policy often has to respond to such developments in order to ensure price stability.
Na splošno se mora denarna politika, ki želi zagotoviti cenovno stabilnost, na takšna gibanja odzivati.
In cases of inflationary pressure, the central bank would normally increase (real) interest rates to prevent that pressure from translating into more persistent deviations from price stability.
V primeru inflacijskih pritiskov centralna banka navadno poveča (realne) obrestne mere, da bi preprečila prenos pritiskov na bolj trdovratna odstopanja od cenovne stabilnosti.
For a given price level, if wages or the costs of raw materials, such as oil, rise, firms are forced to reduce the number of people they employ and to cut production.
Če se ob dani ravni cen stroški za surovine, npr. nafto, povečajo, bodo podjetja prisiljena zmanjšati število zaposlenih in obseg proizvodnje.
As this is the result of supply-side effects, the resulting inflation is often referred to as “cost-push inflation”.
Ker gre za rezultat dejavnikov s ponudbene strani, se za inflacijo, ki jo ti povzročijo, pogosto uporablja izraz »stroškovna inflacija«.
Increases in the external demand for export products could have an impact on current consumption and investment.
Če torej ljudje pričakujejo, da bo inflacija v prihodnje naraščala, lahko s svojim vedenjem povzročijo, da se inflacija poveča že danes.
Various circumstances could cause the price of inputs to rise, for instance, if the supply of raw materials such as oil falls short of expectations, or if the worldwide demand for raw materials rises.
Dvig cen inputov lahko povzročijo najrazličnejše okoliščine, npr. če ponudba surovin ne zadosti pričakovanjem ali če se poveča svetovno povpraševanje po surovinah.
Increases in real wages (which are not matched by increased productivity) will also lead to a decline in aggregate supply and lower employment.
Dvig realnih plač (ki ga ne spremlja večja produktivnost) lahko vodi v padec skupne ponudbe in nižjo zaposlenost.
Such wage increases may result from a decline in the labour supply, which in turn may have been caused by a government regulation which has the effect of reducing the incentives to work (e.g. higher taxes on labour income).
Do takšnega povečanja plač lahko pride zaradi nižje ponudbe na trgu dela, ki so jo po drugi strani povzročili vladni ukrepi, ki zmanjšujejo spodbude za delo (npr. višji davek na dohodke od dela).
An increase in the power of trade unions can also result in higher real wages.
Višje realne plače lahko izsilijo tudi močnejši sindikati.
This is another reason why it is very important for monetary policy to be credible in its objective of maintaining price stability – in order to stabilise longerterm inflation expectations at low levels, in line with price stability.
Okrepitev zunanjega povpraševanja po izvoznih izdelkih lahko vpliva na tekočo potrošnjo in investiranje.
If the factors described above work in the other direction, we will see an increase in aggregate supply.
Če vsi zgoraj opisani dejavniki delujejo v nasprotni smeri, se bo skupna ponudba povečala.
For example, an increase in productivity (e.g. based on new technologies) would, all things being equal, lead to lower prices and higher employment in the short run as it becomes more profitable to hire labour at given wages.
Dvig produktivnosti (zaradi novih tehnologij), na primer, ob nespremenjenih ostalih dejavnikih lahko povzroči padec cen in višjo zaposlenost na kratki rok, saj povečanje zaposlenosti ob danih plačah postane bolj dobičkonosno.
However, if real wages were to increase in line with productivity, employment would remain unchanged.
Če pa se realne plače zvišajo hkrati s produktivnostjo, se raven zaposlenosti ne bo spremenila.
Taken together, a variety of factors and shocks can influence the price level in the short run.
V celoti gledano lahko kratkoročno na raven cen vplivajo najrazličnejši dejavniki in šoki.
Among them are developments in aggregate demand and its various components, including developments in fiscal policy.
Eden takšnih dejavnikov je gibanje skupnega povpraševanja in njegovih komponent, vključno s spremembami v fiskalni politiki.
Further changes could relate to changes in input prices, in costs and productivity, in developments in the exchange rate, and in the global economy.
Premike lahko povzročijo tudi spremembe v ceni inputov, stroških in produktivnosti, gibanje deviznega tečaja in razmere v svetovnem gospodarstvu.
All these factors could affect real activity and prices over shorter-term horizons.
Vsi ti dejavniki lahko vplivajo na realno aktivnost in cene na kratki rok.
But what about longerterm horizons?
Kako pa je z gibanji na dolgi rok?
The role of expected inflation When firms and employees negotiate wages and when firms set their prices, they often consider what the level of inflation may be in the period ahead, for example, over the following year.
Vpliv pričakovane inflacije Ko se podjetja in zaposleni pogajajo o plačah in ko podjetja določajo cene, pogosto upoštevajo tudi raven inflacije v prihodnosti, na primer v prihodnjem letu.
Expected inflation matters for current wage settlements, as future price rises will reduce the quantity of goods and services that a given nominal wage can buy.
Če delavci pričakujejo, da bo inflacija v prihodnosti višja, bodo v pogajanjih z delodajalci zahtevali večje povečanje nominalnih plač.
So, if inflation is expected to be high, employees might demand a higher nominal wage increase during wage
Stroški se za podjetje povečajo, če dogovori o plačah temeljijo na takšnih inflacijskih pričakovanjih, in podjetje jih lahko prenese na potrošnike v obliki višjih cen.
This brings us to another important distinction in economics.
Podobno velja za določanje cen.
Economists generally draw a distinction between the short run and the long run (see also Box 4.2).
Ker so mnoge posamične cene za določeno obdobje (za en mesec ali eno leto; gl. okvir 4.1) fiksne, podjetje, ki načrtuje
FACTORS DRIVING PRICE DEVELOPMENTS OVER LONGER-TERM HORIZONS
DEJAVNIKI, KI USMERJAJO CENOVNA GIBANJA NA DOLGI ROK
What is the relative importance of these factors on inflation over longerterm horizons?
Kakšen je relativni pomen dejavnikov inflacije v daljših časovnih obdobjih?
Or in other words: are they all of equal relevance as regards inflationary trends?
So za inflacijske trende vsi enako pomembni? Odgovor je očitno »ne«.
How does this distinction influence our results?
Kaj to razlikovanje pomeni za naše rezultate?
Without going into too much detail, it can be argued that output does not depend on the price level in the long run.
Tudi če se ne spustimo v pretirane podrobnosti, lahko pokažemo, da obseg proizvodnje na dolgi rok ni odvisen od ravni cen.
It is determined by the given stock of capital; by the labour force available and the quality of that labour force; by structural policies which influence incentives to work and to invest; and by any technological developments in the field of production.
Določajo ga dani obseg kapitala, razpoložljiva delovna sila, strukturne politike, ki vplivajo na spodbude za delo in investiranje, in razvoj proizvodnih tehnologij.
In other words, the long-term level of output depends on a number of real or supply-side factors.These factors determine the exact position of the aggregate supply curve.
Z drugimi besedami, dolgoročni obseg proizvodnje je odvisen od številnih realnih oz. ponudbenih dejavnikov. Ti določajo natančno lego krivulje skupne ponudbe.
As already mentioned in previous paragraphs, there is a time lag of about one to three years between changes in monetary policy and the impact on prices.
Kot smo že omenili v prejšnjih poglavjih, med spremembo denarne politike in njenimi učinki na cene mine približno od enega do treh let.
This implies that monetary policy cannot prevent unexpected real economic developments or shocks from having some short-run impact on inflation.
To pomeni, da denarna politika ne more preprečiti nepričakovanih realnih gospodarskih gibanj ali šokov, ki vplivajo na inflacijo na kratki rok.
However, there is widespread agreement among economists that monetary policy can control price developments over the longerterm and therefore also the “trend” of inflation, i.e. the change in the price level when the economy has fully incorporated shortterm disturbances.
Kljub temu se ekonomisti strinjajo, da lahko denarna politika nadzoruje cenovna gibanja na dolgi rok in s tem določa tudi »trend« inflacije oz. spremembo ravni cen potem, ko se je gospodarstvo že v celoti prilagodilo na kratkoročne motnje.
In the long run, prices are flexible and can respond fully to changes in supply and demand.
Na dolgi rok so cene fleksibilne in se lahko odzivajo na spremembe v ponudbi in povpraševanju.
However, in the short run many individual prices are sticky and will remain at their current levels for some time (see Box 4.1).
Na kratki rok pa so številne posamične cene lepljive in se nekaj časa ne morejo spremeniti (gl. okvir 4.1).
The other curve that determines the state of equilibrium of the economy is the aggregate demand curve.
Druga krivulja, ki določa stanje ravnovesja v gospodarstvu, je krivulja skupnega povpraševanja.
As we have seen, a number of factors can lead to increases in aggregate demand.
Kot smo videli, lahko povečanje skupnega povpraševanja povzroči vrsta dejavnikov.
Among them are increases in government expenditures, in external demand for exports, and in improved expectations of future productivity developments which might have an impact on current consumption and investment.
Mednje spadajo povečanje proračunskih odhodkov, okrepitev zunanjega povpraševanja (izvoz) in višja pričakovanja glede produktivnosti v prihodnje, kar vse lahko vpliva na tekočo potrošnjo in investiranje.
It is obvious, however, that although many of these factors can increase even for a protracted period, a sustained increase in the general price level can, in the long run, only be driven by a sustained and ongoing expansionary monetary policy.This point is often made in terms of the famous statement according to which “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”.
Kljub temu, da lahko mnogi od teh dejavnikov naraščajo celo dalj časa, je očitno, da lahko trajno rast ravni cen v dolgoročnem obdobju povzroča samo trajno ekspanzivna denarna politika. Ta poudarek je pogosto naveden v povezavi s slavno trditvijo, daje »inflacija vedno in povsod denarni pojav«.
Indeed, a number of empirical studies have provided evidence in favour of this hypothesis.The ultimate reason for an inflationary process in the longer run is, therefore, a sustained increase in money supply which is equivalent to a sustained expansionary monetary policy.
To hipotezo je potrdila tudi vrsta empiričnih raziskav. Temeljni razlog za inflacijski proces na dolgi rok je trajna rast ponudbe denarja oz. trajno ekspanzivna denarna politika.
4 increases the money supply by too much, the price level will ultimately also increase.This basic result is illustrated by the fundamental economic concept which addresses in more detail the relationship between money and prices, namely the quantity theory of money (see Box 4.3 below).
4 ponazorjen s temeljnim ekonomskim konceptom, ki podrobneje obravnava razmerje med denarjem in cenami – kvantitativno teorijo denarja (gl. okvir 4.3 spodaj).
In a longerterm perspective, monetary policy actions thus determine whether inflation is allowed to rise or is kept low.
Na dolgi rok so ukrepi denarne politike tisti, ki določajo, ali inflacija raste ali pa je vzdrževana na nizki ravni.
In other words, a central bank that controls the money supply and the shortterm interest rate has ultimate control over the rate of inflation over longerterm horizons.
Z drugimi besedami, centralna banka, ki uravnava ponudbo denarja in kratkoročne obrestne mere, je v končni fazi tisti dejavnik, ki nadzoruje stopnjo inflacije na dolgi rok.
If the central bank keeps shortterm interest rates too low and
Če centralna banka ohranja prenizke obrestne mere in preveč poveča ponudbo denarja, se bo na koncu povečala tudi raven cen. Ta osnovni rezultat je
BOX 4.3 THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY
OKVIR 4.3 KVANTITATIVNA TEORIJA DENARJA
According to an identity which is widely known as the quantity equation, the change in the money stock ( M) in an economy equals the change in nominal transactions (approximated by the change in real activity ( YR) plus the change in the price level ( P)), minus the change in velocity ( V).The latter variable can be defined as the speed with which money is transferred between different money holders and thus determines how much money is required to serve a particular level of nominal transactions.12 In short:
Drugič, na dolgi rok za hitrost kroženja velja, da jo določajo plačilne navade, finančni in gospodarski dogovori o izvajanju transakcij ter stroški in dohodki od imetij v denarju namesto v drugih sredstvih. Iz tega sledi, daje raven ponudbe denarja – ki jo s svojimi odločitvami določajo denarne oblasti – na dolgi rok povezana z ravnjo cen.
M= YR + P– theory. First, output can, in the long run, be regarded as being determined by real-side factors like the productive opportunities of the community and its tastes and preferences.
Z drugimi besedami to pomeni, da na dolgi rok raven cen določajo neposredno spremembe v količini denarja v obtoku, ki se zato giba sorazmerno z njo.
Second, in the long run, velocity is regarded as being determined by payment practices, financial and economic arrangements for effecting transactions and costs of and returns from holding money instead of other assets.
Po kvantitativni enačbi je sprememba v količini denarja v obtoku ( M) enaka spremembi nominalnih transakcij (približek: sprememba realne aktivnosti ( YR) plus sprememba ravni cen ( P)) minus sprememba hitrosti kroženja ( V).
It then follows that the quantity of money supply – which is determined by the decisions taken by the monetary authorities – is, in the long run, linked to the price level.
Zadnjo spremenljivko je mogoče opredeliti kot hitrost, s katero denar prehaja od enega imetnika k drugemu, kar določa, koliko denarja je potrebnega za določeno raven nominalnih transakcij.13
Put another way, over longerterm horizons, the price level is determined directly by changes in the quantity of money and it moves proportionally to the latter.
Sklenemo lahko, daje za gibanje inflacije na dolgi rok v prvi vrsti odgovorna ustanova, ki določa ponudbo denarja, torej centralna banka.
One implication of this is that the institution which determines the supply of money, namely the central bank, is ultimately responsible for longerterm trends in inflation.
13 Leva stran enačbe sešteva količino porabljenega denarja, desna pa kaže vrednost transakcij.
It therefore does not provide any statements about causality.A sense of causality can only be inferred if further assumptions regarding the determinants of the variables are taken into account.
Kot tak ne vključuje nikakršnih trditev o vzročnosti. Občutek kavzalnosti je mogoče izvesti samo ob upoštevanju dodatnih predpostavk o determinantah spremenljivk.
In particular, the following two assumptions allow the quantity equation to be transformed into the quantity
Za pretvorbo kvantitativne enačbe v kvantitativno teorijo sta še posebej pomembni naslednji predpostavki.
12Th is reflects the fact that the left-hand side of the equation sums up the amount of money used, whereas the right-hand side reflects the value of the transaction.
Prvič, obseg proizvodnje na dolgi rok določajo dejavniki realne strani, npr. proizvodne priložnosti ter okusi in preference potrošnikov.