natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
However, there were only limited signsof significant passthrough to prices at a laterstage of the production chain.
Cene proizvajalcev so v letu2004 predvsem zaradi višjih cen energije inblaga za vmesno porabo rasle s povprečno letno
Similarly, wageincreases remained contained in 2004, in the
ECBLetno poročilo2004
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
(letne odstotne spremembe, razen kjer je navedeno drugače)
HICP and its components Overall index Energy Processed food Unprocessed food Non-energy industrial goods Services
HICPin njegovi elementi Skupni indeks Energija Predelani prehrambeni izdelki Nepredelani prehrambeni izdelki Neenergetsko industrijsko blago Storitve
Industrial producer prices 1)Oil prices (EUR per barrel) 2)
Cene nafte (EUR za sodček)2)
Commodity prices 3)
Cene primarnih surovin3)
Sources: Eurostat, Thomson Financial Datastream and Hamburg Institute of International Economics.1) Excluding construction.2) Brent Blend (for one-month forward delivery).3) Excluding energy; in EUR.
Viri: Eurostat, Thomson Financial Datastream in HWWA.1)Razen gradbeništva.2)Znamke Brent (za 1 mesečno vnaprejšnjo dostavo).3)Razen energije; v EUR.
Chart 21 Breakdown of HICP inflation: mainsub-components
Graf22 Prispevki glavnih podelementov k inflaciji po HICP
(annual percentage point contributions; monthly data) total HICP (left-hand scale)unprocessed food (right-hand scale)energy (right-hand scale)
(letni prispevki, izraženi v letnih odstotnih točkah; mesečni podatki) skupna inflacija po HICP (lestvica na levi strani)nepredelani prehrambeni izdelki (lestvica na desni strani)energija (lestvica na desni strani)
18 servicesnon-energy industrial goodsprocessed foodunprocessed foodenergyoverall index
18 storitveneenergetsko industrijsko blagopredelani prehrambeni izdelkinepredelani prehrambeni izdelkienergijaskupni indeks
1.0 total HICP excl. energy and unprocessed foodprocessed foodnon-energy industrial goodsservices
1,0 skupna inflacija po HICP brez energije in nepredelanih prehrambenih izdelkovpredelani prehrambeni izdelkineenergetsko industrijsko blagostoritve
Source: Eurostat.Note: Due to rounding, the contributions do not add up exactlyto the overall index.
Vir: Eurostat.Opomba: Zaradi zaokroževanja se prispevki ne skladajo povsems skupnim indeksom.
after 3.0% in 2003.
To je razlog skupne rasticen storitev z 2,5% v letu 2003 na 2,6% v letu2004.
Their contribution of 0.4percentage point to the average annualinflation rate in 2004 was the highest in fouryears (see Chart 22).
Vpliv cen energije na povišanjetransportnih stroškov je prispeval, čeprav v manjši meri, tudi k zvišanju celotnih cen zastoritve.
conditions, had a moderating influence onoverall HICP developments.
Vokviru 5 so podrobni podatki o učinkugibanj cen nafte na gospodarstvo evro območja.
Other sources of external inflationarypressures were also at work in 2004. Inparticular, non-oil commodity prices increasedstrongly in the first half of the year, beforemoderating.
Ostale manj nestanovitne komponente indeksa HICP so delno prispevale k vztrajnosti objavljeneinflacije v letu 2004, zlasti zaradi gibanjposrednih davkov in nadzorovanih cen.
However, the significantappreciation of the euro partly offset theinflationary impact of both oil and non-oilcommodity prices.
Takokakor v letu 2003 so se v več državah evroobmočja dodatno zvišali davki na tobačneizdelke, kar je znatno prispevalo k pritisku nadvig cen predelane hrane.
This upward pressure largely offsetthe moderating impact of unprocessed foodprices, for which the annual growth rate declinedfrom 2.1% on average in 2003 to 0.6% in 2004.Over the summer and autumn, unprocessed foodprices, dampened by favourable weather
Zaradi tega so se v letu2004 cene predelane hrane zvišale povprečno za3,4% v primerjavi s 3,3% v letu 2003.
The remaining, less volatile components of the HICP contributed to some persistence in
Letnastopnja spremembe cen neenergetskegaindustrijskega blaga je v letu 2004 znašala 0,8%,enako kakor v letu 2003.
Box 5 details the impact of oil pricedevelopments on the euro area economy.
Okvir 5
headline inflation in 2004, notably due todevelopments in indirect taxes andadministered prices.
Vtem okencu so opisana gibanja cen nafte v letu 2004 in njihov vpliv na gospodarstvo evroobmočja.
As in 2003, furtherincreases in tobacco taxes were introduced inseveral euro area countries, contributing tosignificant upward pressure on processed foodprices.
Najprej je podan zgodovinski vidik zvišanja cen nafte v letu 2004.
Consequently, processed food pricesgrew at an average of 3.4% in 2004, comparedwith 3.3% in 2003.
Sledi opis načinov,kako cene nafte vplivajo na inflacijo in rast proizvodnje evro območja.
The annual rate of changeof non-energy industrial goods prices stoodat 0.8% in 2004, unchanged from 2003.
Na koncu je podanposkus količinske opredelitve vpliva zvišanja cen nafte, s tem da nekaterih učinkov ni mogočezajeti z modeli.
Adecline in this component was prevented byincreases in administered prices, in particular
Gibanja cen nafte z bolj dolgoročnega vidika
OIL PRICES AND THE EURO AREA ECONOMY
Viri: MDS in izračuni ECB.
This box describes oil price developments in 2004 and their effect on the euro area economy.First of all, it puts the oil price increase of 2004 into a historical perspective.
Tretjič, tudi dejavniki, ki so vplivali nazvišanje cen v letu 2004, so se razlikovali od prejšnjih šokov zaradi cen nafte.
It then goes on todescribe the channels through which oil prices affect euro area inflation and output growth.Finally, it gives a tentative quantification of the impact of the oil price increase, but stressesthat some effects cannot be captured by models.
Vnasprotju z zvišanji cen nafte v letih 1973, 1979, 1990 in 1999, do katerih je prišlo predvsem zaradi velikihmotenj pri dobavi nafte, so na cene nafte v letu 2004 vplivali številni dejavniki. Ti dejavnikivključujejo živahno povpraševanje po nafti, ki je presegalo pričakovanja, zmanjšanje svetovnihrezervnih zmogljivosti ter zaskrbljenosti zaradi varnosti dobav iz več držav proizvodnic nafte.
Developments in oil prices from a longerterm perspective
Prenos sprememb cene nafte na inflacijo evro območja
Oil prices in US dollars rose to record levels in nominal terms during 2004.
Graf B prikazuje prispevek najpomembnejših postavk energetske komponente,povezanih z nafto, k letni skupni stopnji inflacije po HICP, skupaj z gibanji cen nafte.
There are, however,key differences between this increase and previous oil price shocks.
Grafprikazuje neposredni učinek, ki se pojavi v roku enega leta po zvišanju cene nafte.
First, the increase in 2004
ECBLetno poročilo2004
(per barrel) nominal in EURreal in EURnominal in USD
(za sodček) nominalno v EURrealno v EURnominalno v USD
Sources: IMF and ECB calculations.Note: Real oil prices allow a comparison of the impact of oil price developments on purchasing power over time.
Viri: IMF in izračuni ECB.Opomba: Realne cene nafte dovoljujejo medčasovno primerjavo vpliva gibanja cen nafte na kupno moč.
They are computed bydeflating nominal oil prices with the euro area HICP with December 2004 as a base. Price data before 1990 refer to national CPI data.
Izračunavajo se tako, da senominalne cene nafte deflacionirajo z inflacijskim indeksom po HICPza evro območje, pri čemer je za osnovo vzet december 2004.Podatki o cenah pred letom 1990 so nanašajo na nacionalne podatke CPI držav evro območja.
On average, the price of Brent crudeoil in 2004 was 33% higher than in 2003.Nonetheless, as a result of the overallappreciation of the euro against the US dollar,oil prices in euro terms went up by 20% in
Omeniti pa je treba, da vplivajo na te komponente tudi drugi dejavniki, medtem ko tudi na drugekomponente HICPposredno vplivajo spremembe cene nafte.
Third, thefactors driving the price increase in 2004 also differed from earlier oil price shocks.
Takšni sekundarni učinki se zgodijo z zamikom.
Thesefactors include buoyant demand for oil that surpassed expectations, the dwindling global sparecapacity and concerns over the security of supplies from several oil-producing countries.
Značilno je, da je pojav sekundarnih učinkov odvisen od tega, ali gospodarski okvir,zlasti razmere na trgu dela, spodbujajo zahtevke po višjih plačah.
The energy component constitutes 8% of the overall HICP and is strongly correlatedwith oil prices in euro terms. Chart B shows the contribution of the most important oil-relateditems of the energy component to the annual overall HICP inflation rate along with oil pricedevelopments.
Vletu 2004 so bili sekundarniučinki, povezani s šokom zaradi cen nafte, omejeni zaradi cikličnega stanja gospodarstva evroobmočja in zaradi razmer na trgu dela.
This chart shows that the direct effect materialises within a year of the oil priceincrease.
Tudi nižja indeksacija plač je morebiti vplivala na manjšovlogo inflacije v procesu oblikovanja plač.
Chart B Oil prices and the contribution ofenergy components to HICP inflation
Graf B Cene nafte in prispevek energetskih komponent k HICPinflaciji
Chart C Oil prices and the contribution oftransport components to HICP inflation
Graf C Cene nafte in prispevek prevoznih komponent k HICPinflaciji
(percentage point contribution, unless otherwise indicated)
(prispevek v odstotnih točkah, če ni navedeno HICPdrugače)
(percentage point contribution, unless otherwise indicated) liquid fuels (left-hand scale)heat energy (left-hand scale)lubricants (left-hand scale) combined passenger transport (left-hand scale)passenger transport by air (left-hand scale)passenger transport by road (left-hand scale) oil price in EUR (annual rate of change, right-hand scale) oil price in EUR (annual rate of change, right-hand scale)
(prispevek v odstotnih točkah, če ni navedeno HICPdrugače) mešani potniški prevoz (lestvica na levi strani)zračni potniški prevoz (lestvica na levi strani)cestni potniški prevoz (lestvica na levi strani) tekoča goriva (lestvica na levi strani)toplotna energija (lestvica na levi strani)maziva (lestvica na levi strani) cena nafte v evrih (stopnja letne spremembe,lestvica na desni strani) cena nafte v evrih (stopnja letne spremembe, lestvica na desni strani)
Transmission of oil price changes to euro area output growth
Prenos sprememb cene nafte na rast proizvodnje evro območja
There are primarily two channels through which oil price shocks affect the real economy.
Obstajata predvsem dve obliki vpliva šokov zaradi cene nafte na realno gospodarstvo.
First,there is the supply-side channel, because oil is an important input factor in the productionprocess.
Prvič,gre za vpliv na strani ponudbe, ker je nafta pomemben dejavnik v proizvodnem procesu.
A rise in the price of oil entails, particularly in the short term, an increase inproduction costs, as the options for substituting other energy sources for oil are limited.
Dvigcene nafte pomeni, zlasti kratkoročno, dvig proizvodnih stroškov, ker so možnosti zanadomestitev nafte z drugimi viri energije omejene.
Thelevel of output may fall as a result of the oil price increase, which may also imply lower demandfor other production factors such as labour.
Zaradi zvišanja cene nafte lahko upaderaven proizvodnje, kar lahko pomeni tudi nižje povpraševanje po drugih proizvodnih dejavnikih,kot je delovna sila.
Second, on the demand side, an increase in oilprices entails a deterioration in the terms of trade of net oil-importing economies like the euroarea.
Drugič, z vidika povpraševanja pomeni zvišanje cen nafte poslabšanjepoložaja trgovine v gospodarstvih, kot je območje evra, ki so neto uvozniki nafte.
The resulting decline in real income translates into lower domestic demand insofar as it isnot compensated for by reduced saving or increased borrowing.
Posledičnozmanjšanje realnega dohodka pomeni manjše domače povpraševanje, če ga ne kompenziramanjše varčevanje ali večje zadolževanje.
A number of other channels,which are more difficult to measure, transmit the effects of an oil price shock via confidence orstock markets for example.
Številne druge oblike, ki jih je težje izmeriti,prenašajo učinke šoka zaradi cene nafte prek na primer zaupanja ali delniških trgov.
Model-based quantification of the impact of the oil price increase
Količinsko vrednotenje vpliva zvišanja cene nafte na osnovi modela
The impact of the oil price increase observed over the last year on euro area inflation and real GDP growth can be approximated using different models.
Vpliv zvišanja cen nafte v zadnjem letu na inflacijo in realno rast BDPevro območja lahkopribližno ocenimo s pomočjo različnih modelov.
Such estimations generally suggestthat a 20% increase in oil prices raises euro area inflation by about 0.2 percentage point in thefirst year, with a further impact of around 0.1 percentage point expected for the following twoyears.
Takšne ocene na splošno kažejo, da 20%zvišanje cen nafte v prvem letu poveča inflacijo evro območja za okrog 0,2 odstotne točke, v naslednjih dveh letih pa se pričakuje še dodatno povečanje za okrog 0,1 odstotne točke.
As regards real GDP growth, the estimated impact would amount to around -0.1 to -0.3percentage point in the first year, with only a minor effect in the second and third years.2
Karzadeva realno rast BDP, bi ocenjeni vpliv znašal v prvem letu okrog -0,1 do -0,3 odstotne točke,z manjšim vplivom v drugem in tretjem letu.2
The simulation results should, however, not be taken at face value.
Rezultate simulacije pa ne gre jemati po nominalni vrednosti.
On the one hand, severalcaveats should be clearly borne in mind, such as the possible existence of non-linearities andasymmetries, and the fact that models do not include all possible transmission channels.
Upoštevati je treba tudi morebitnenelinearnosti in nesimetrije ter dejstvo, da modeli ne vključujejo vseh možnih oblik prenosa.Poleg tega igra pri ugotavljanju vpliva zvišanja cene nafte na gospodarstvo evro območjapomembno vlogo verodostojnost in odziv monetarne politike, zaradi česar je količinskaopredelitev učinka nezanesljiva.
On theother hand, it should also be noted that, from a structural perspective, several factors suggestthat the euro area economy has become more resilient to oil price shocks in recent years, withthe result that model simulations could overestimate the impact.
Omeniti je treba tudi, da iz strukturnega vidika več dejavnikovkaže, da je gospodarstvo evro območja v zadnjih letih postalo bolj odporno na šoke zaradi cenenafte, zaradi česar lahko simulacije z modeli precenijo učinek.
First of all, compared with the1970s, the oil intensity of production and the share of oil consumption in total energyconsumption have fallen significantly in the euro area.
Vprimerjavi s sedemdesetimista naftna intenzivnost proizvodnje in delež porabe nafte v skupni energetski porabi na evroobmočju znatno padla.
Moreover, labour and product marketsappear to have become somewhat more flexible, allowing for a smoother and fasterreallocation of resources, which should reduce the impact of an oil price shock on the economy.Furthermore, the credibility and the reaction of monetary policy play an important role indetermining the impact of oil price increases on the euro area economy, renderingquantification of the effect uncertain.
Poleg tega kaže, da so trgi dela in trgi izdelkov postali nekoliko boljprožni in omogočajo lažjo in hitrejšo prerazporeditev virov, kar bi moralo zmanjšati vpliv šokazaradi cene nafte na gospodarstvo.
However, further structural reforms are clearly needed to increase the ability of the euro areaeconomy to adjust more smoothly and quickly to future shocks.
Vendar pa so potrebne dodatne strukturne reforme, da se bo gospodarstvo evro območjasposobno nemoteno in hitro prilagoditi prihodnjim šokom.
In particular, increasing thedegree of effective competition in the euro area energy sector would be highly beneficial as itwould allow higher oil prices to be absorbed without significant distortions.
Zlasti koristno bi bilo povečanjestopnje uspešne konkurenčnosti v energetskem sektorju evro območja, ker bi lahko bile s temvišje cene nafte absorbirane brez večjih izkrivljanj.
There was, however, little sign of significantprice pressures building up at later stages of theproduction chain.
2Za nadaljnje informacije glej članek omenjen v opombi 1 tega okvirja.
Chart 23 Residential property pricedevelopments in the euro area
Graf23 Gibanja cen stanovanjskih nepremičnin v evroobmočju
Chart 24 Breakdown of industrial producerprices
Graf24 Razčlenitev cen industrijskih proizvodov pri proizvajalcih
(annual percentage changes; annual data)
(letne odstotne spremembe; letni podatki)
(annual percentage changes; monthly data) in nominal terms
(letne odstotne spremembe; mesečni podatki) nominalno
10 energy (left-hand scale)industry excl. construction (right-hand scale)intermediate goods (right-hand scale)capital goods (right-hand scale)consumer goods (right-hand scale)
10 energija (lestvica na levi strani)industrija razen gradbeništva (lestvica na desni strani)proizvodi za vmesno porabo (lestvica na desni strani)investicijsko blago (lestvica na desni strani)potrošniško blago (lestvica na desni strani)
Source: ECB calculations, based on non-harmonised nationaldata.Note: Data for 2004 refer to the first half of the year.
Viri: Izračuni ECB na podlagi neharmoniziranih nacionalnihpodatkov.Opomba: Podatki za leto 2004 se nanašajo na prvo polovico leta.
Theannual growth rate of negotiated wages stoodat 2.2% in 2004, compared with 2.4% in 2003.Anecdotal evidence from wage bargainingagreements signed in the period up to late 2004
Vendar pa je to obdobjevztrajnih in velikih povišanj sledilo obdobjurazmeroma skromnih povišanj (za manj kot 3%)v sredini devetdesetih.
MODERATE DEVELOPMENTS IN LABOUR COSTS IN2004Labour cost indicators in the euro areacontinued to ease in 2004 compared with recentyears (see Table 2).
ŽIVAHNE CENE STANOVANJSKIH NEPREMIČNINCene stanovanjskih nepremičnin evro območja,ki niso vključene v merjenje indeksa HICP, sov letu 2004 še naprej močno rasle in so se v prvipolovici leta 2004 zvišale za 6,9% v primerjavis prvo polovico leta 2003.
Growth in compensationper employee showed a decline in the first halfof 2004, with an average annual growth rate of2.2% compared with 2.4% in 2003. This
Vtej številki seskrivajo nasprotujoča si gibanja v državah evroobmočja, saj so zvišanja cen v Španiji, Irski,Franciji in Italiji dosegala dvomestne številke,medtem ko je bilo v Nemčiji opaženo majhno
Negotiated wages Total hourly labour costs Gross monthly earnings Compensation per employee Labour productivity Unit labour costs
Pogodbene plače Skupni urni stroški dela Bruto mesečni dohodki Plača na zaposlenega Produktivnost dela Stroški dela na enoto
Sources: Eurostat, national data and ECB calculations.
Viri: Eurostat, nacionalni podatki in izračuni ECB.
Chart 25 Sectoral compensation peremployee
Graf25 Plačanazaposlenegaposektorju
(annual percentage changes; quarterly data) hourly labour costs also declined graduallythroughout 2004, to reach an averagesignificantly lower than in 2003.
(letne odstotne spremembe; četrtletni podatki) industrija razen gradbeništvagradbeništvostoritve
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Viri: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.
in several euro area countries did not suggestthe emergence of secondround effects ofhigher oil prices.
Vendar pa v poznejši fazi proizvodne verige nibilo zaznati večjih znakov pritiska na zviševanjecen.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY CONTINUED IN 2004The recovery of economic activity in the euroarea, which started in the second half of 2003,continued in 2004.
Cene proizvajalcev blaga za široko poraboso se povprečno dvignile za 1,3%, kar je ševedno pod zgodovinskim povprečjem, presegapa povprečno zvišanje v višini 1,1% v letu 2003.Znatni delež zvišanja cen proizvajalcev blagaza široko porabo med leti 2003 in 2004 sopovzročila povečanja davkov na tobačneizdelke.
At 1.8%, the highest raterecorded since 2000, overall GDP growth in
Na splošno, ker traja nekaj časa, da pritiski zaradi lastnih cen vplivajo na dvig cenv proizvodni verigi, je možno, da se je zakasneliučinek povišanj cen primarnih surovin na cene
(percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated; seasonally adjusted)
(odstotne spremembe, razen kjer je navedeno drugače, desezonirano)
Quarterly rates 2)
Četrtletne stopnje rasti2)
Real gross domestic productof which:
Realni bruto domači proizvodod katerega:
Domestic demand Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories 3), 4)
Domače povpraševanje Zasebna potrošnja Držav na potrošnja Bruto investicije Spremembe v zalogah3), 4)
Real gross value addedof which:Industry excl. construction Construction Purely market-related services
Čiste tržno povezane storitve6)
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Percentage change compared with the same period a year earlier.2) Percentage change compared with the previous quarter.3) As a contribution to real GDP growth; in percentage points.4) Including acquisitions less disposals of valuables.5) Exports and imports cover goods and services and include internal crossborder trade in the euro area.
Viri: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.1) Odstotna sprememba glede na isto obdobje prejšnjega leta.2) Odstotna sprememba glede na prejšnje četrtletje.3) Kot prispevek k rasti BDP; v odstotnih točkah.4) Vključno s postavko pridobitve manj odtujitve vrednostnih predmetov.5) Izvoz in uvoz zajemata blago in storitve ter vključujeta interno čezmejno trgovanje v evro območju.
Since intra-euro area tradeis not cancelled out in import and export figures used in national accounts, these data are not fully comparable with balance ofpayments data.6) Includes trade, transport, repairs, hotels and restaurants, communication, finance, business services, real estate and renting services.
Ker trgovina znotraj evro območjani izključena iz podatkov za izvoz in uvoz, ki se uporabljajo pri nacionalnih računih, ti podatki niso popolnoma primerljivi s podatkiplačilne bilance.6) Vključuje trgovino, prevoz, popravila, hotele in restavracije, komunikacije, finance, poslovne storitve, nepremičninske in najemniškestoritve.
Chart 26 Contributions to quarterly real GDP growth
Graf26 Prispevki k četrtletni rasti realnega BDP
(quarterly percentage point contributions; seasonally adjusted) real GDP 1)final domestic demand exports
(četrtletni prispevki v odstotnih točkah; desezonirano) realni BDP 1)končno domače povpraševanje proizvajalcev blaga za široko porabo, že opaženv zgodnejših fazah proizvodnje, šele začel in seokrepil v začetku leta 2005.
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Percentage change compared with the previous quarter.
Viri: Eurostat in izračuni ECB.1) Odstotna sprememba v primerjavi s prejšnjim četrtletjem.
From mid-2003 to mid2004 the recoverywas largely driven by export growth, whilethe contribution of final domestic demand(i.e. excluding changes in inventories) wasrelatively modest (see Chart 26).The moderationof quarter-on-quarter growth in the second halfof 2004 largely resulted from a marked decline inthe contribution from the external sector, whichwas only partially compensated for by graduallyincreasing final domestic demand growth.
ZMERNA GIBANJA STROŠKOV DELA V LETU 2004Kazalci stroškov plač in dela na evro območju sose v letu 2004 še naprej umirjali v primerjavi z zadnjimi leti (glej tabelo 2). Rast nadomestil nazaposlenega je v prvi polovici leta 2004 pokazalaznižanje, tako da je povprečna letna stopnja rastiznašala 2,2% v primerjavi z 2,4% v letu 2003.
Thecontribution from inventories was relativelysignificant in some quarters during the recoverybut was also volatile.
Toznižanje je zajelo vse glavne gospodarske sektorje(glej graf 25), čeprav je bilo nekoliko večje v storitvah, povezanih s trgom.
With the exception ofchanges in inventories, these developments arebroadly consistent with the characteristics ofrecoveries observed in the past few decades in theeuro area.
Razpoložljivipodatki o nadomestilu na zaposlenega v drugipolovici leta 2004 kažejo na dodatno umirjanjerasti plač. To kažejo tudi drugi kazalci stroškovdela.