natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
After being positive in 2006 in the wake of higher commodity prices, annual consumer price inflation returned to negative territory at the beginning of 2007, before turning positive again in October as a result of the renewed increase in the price of imported raw materials.
Inflacija, ki je bila leta 2006 zaradi višjih cen primarnih surovin pozitivna, je na začetku leta 2007 spet dosegala negativne vrednosti, oktobra pa je zaradi vnovičnega dviga cen uvoženih surovin spet dosegla pozitivne vrednosti.
For the year as a whole, the annual rate of change in consumer prices was 0.0% after 0.3% in 2006, while excluding fresh food the annual rate of inflation was 0.0% after 0.1% in 2006.
Medletna stopnja spremembe cen življenjskih potrebščin je v letu 2007 znašala 0,0% v primerjavi z 0,3% leta 2006, medtem ko je medletna stopnja infl acije brez sveže hrane znašala 0,0% v primerjavi z 0,1% leta 2006.
In 2007 the Bank of Japan continued its policy of a very gradual tightening of monetary conditions, in line with subdued inflationary pressures. For the second time since the end of
V letu 2007 je Bank of Japan nadaljevala svojo politiko zelo postopnega zaostrovanja denarnih pogojev v skladu z umirjenimi inflacijskimi pritiski. Bank of Japan je februarja 2007 dru-
on the back of strong capital inflows, while other currencies remained broadly stable or depreciated in effective terms.
vrednost drugih valut ostala v glavnem stabilna ali pa se je efektivno znižala.
COMMODITY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007Oil prices surged for the fourth year in a row in 2007.
GIBANJA CEN PRIMARNIH SUROVIN V LETU 2007Cene nafte so leta 2007 že četrto leto zapored strmo naraščale.
The price of Brent crude oil increased to around USD 95.6 per barrel in late November.
Cena surove nafte Brent se je ob koncu novembra zvišala na 95,6 USD za sod.
Oil prices were subsequently volatile and stood at USD 94.9 per barrel at the end of the year, around USD 17 above the peaks reached in August 2006.
Zatem so cene nafte nihale in so ob koncu leta znašale 94,9 USD za sod, kar je približno 17 USD nad najvišjimi vrednostmi iz avgusta 2006.
Measured in terms of euro, prices were only around EUR 4 above the August 2006 peak and around 40% above the level of end-2006.
Merjeno v eurih so bile cene le za okrog 4 EUR višje od najvišje vrednosti v avgustu 2006, in približno 40% nad vrednostjo ob koncu leta 2006.
For the year as a whole, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was USD 71, which was 9% above the average of the previous year.
Povprečna cena surove nafte Brent za sod je v celotnem letu znašala 71 USD, kar je bilo 9% več od povprečja v predhodnem letu.
Focusing on China, the economy continued to expand briskly last year.
Na Kitajskem je gospodarstvo v preteklem letu še naprej hitro raslo.
Real GDP grew by 11.4% in 2007, up from 11.1% in 2006, on account of both sustained domestic demand and strong net exports.
Realni BDP se je leta 2007 po zaslugi ohranjanja domačega povpraševanja in velikega neto izvoza povečal za 11,4% v primerjavi z 11,1% leta 2006.
Inflationary pressures picked up, with CPI inflation increasing from 2.2% in January to 6.5% in December, largely driven by higher food prices.
Inflacijski pritiski so se povečali, pri čemer se je inflacija, merjena z indeksom cen življenjskih potrebščin, ki je januarja znašala 2,2%, decembra predvsem zaradi višjih cen hrane zvišala na 6,5%.
The Chinese renminbi continued to appreciate gradually against the US dollar throughout the year, although movements in effective terms were more subdued.
Vrednost kitajske valute renminbi v primerjavi z ameriškim dolarjem se je vse leto še naprej dvigala, čeprav so bila efektivna gibanja bolj umirjena.
In May the People’s Bank of China announced a widening of the daily trading band of the renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar from +/-0.3% of the reference rate to +/-0.5%.
Maja je kitajska centralna banka oznanila razširitev razpona dnevne spremembe vrednosti renminbija v primerjavi z ameriškim dolarjem s ±0,3% referenčnega tečaja na ±0,5%.
The trade surplus continued to widen, bringing the cumulated surplus in 2007 to USD 262 billion – or about 8% of GDP – almost 50% higher than the surplus for the whole of 2006.
Trgovinski presežek se je še naprej povečeval, tako da je skupni presežek leta 2007 znašal 262 milijard USD – ali približno 8% BDP – kar je skoraj 50% več od presežka za celotno leto 2006.
In this context, foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, totalling USD 1.5 trillion, close to 50% of GDP, at the end of 2007.
Devizne rezerve so pri tem še naprej rasle in so ob koncu leta 2007 znašale 1,5 bilijona USD, kar je skoraj 50% BDP.
Throughout the year oil markets remained tight.
Razmere na naftnih trgih so ostale celo leto zaostrene.
As regards supply, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had lowered its production quota and actual production towards the end of 2006, while nonOPEC supply growth fell short of expectations and, thus, did not compensate for lower OPEC output.
Kar zadeva ponudbo, je Organizacija držav izvoznic nafte (OPEC) ob koncu leta 2006 sklenila omejiti svoje proizvodne kvote in dejansko proizvodnjo, medtem ko rast ponudbe držav nečlanic OPEC ni izpolnila pričakovanj in zato ni nadomestila nižjih količin načrpane nafte držav OPEC.
In addition, some production disruptions attributable to the hurricane season temporarily reduced output.
Poleg tega so količine načrpane nafte začasno zmanjšale motnje v proizvodnji zaradi obdobja orkanov.
Global demand growth remained relatively robust.
Rast svetovnega povpraševanja po nafti je ostala razmeroma visoka.
Chart 4 Main developments in commodity markets
Graf 4 Glavna gibanja na trgih primarnih surovin surova nafta Brent (
Brent crude oil (USD/barrel; left-hand scale)non-energy commodities(USD; index: 2000 = 100; right-hand scale)
2000 = 100; lestvica na desni strani)
Sources: Bloomberg and Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
Vira: Bloomberg in Hamburški mednarodno-gospodarski inštitut.
Economic growth also remained sustained in Latin America, albeit with some heterogeneity in the inflation and growth performances across economies.
Tudi v Latinski Ameriki se je gospodarska rast nadaljevala, čeprav so se gibanja infl acije in gospodarske rasti od države do države nekoliko razlikovala.
Improved macroeconomic fundamentals, a further reduction in financial vulnerabilities, high commodity prices and strong domestic demand continued to support the economic outlook.
Gospodarske možnosti so še naprej spodbujali izboljšani makroekonomski temelji, nadaljnje zmanjšanje finančne ranljivosti, visoke cene primarnih surovin in močno domače povpraševanje.
External financial conditions deteriorated in the wake of the recent period of global financial market turbulence, albeit less than in previous episodes of market volatility.
Zunanje finančne razmere so se ob nedavnem obdobju globalnih pretresov na fi nančnih trgih poslabšale, vendar manj kot v preteklih epizodah volatilnosti trga.
In particular, spreads on credit default swaps on Latin American sovereign debt widened, but remained at low levels by historical standards.
Povečali so se razponi v zamenjavah kreditnega tveganja (credit default swaps) pri državnih dolgovih Latinske Amerike, vendar so v primerjavi s preteklimi leti ostali na precej nizki ravni.
In the region’s leading economies, the pace of economic activity was more moderate in Mexico, reflecting a less favourable external environment, but was robust in Brazil, while inflation remained contained in both countries.
Med vodilnimi gospodarstvi regije je bolj umirjeno gospodarsko rast zaradi manj ugodnih zunanjih razmer dosegala Mehika, močnejšo pa Brazilija, medtem ko je inflacija v obeh državah ostala omejena.
Argentina continued to post high real GDP growth rates, and inflation remained at elevated levels.
Argentina je še naprej dosegala visoke stopnje realne rasti BDP, inflacija pa je ostala na povišani ravni.
2.2 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
2.2 DENARNA IN FINANČNA GIBANJA
THE PACE OF MONETARY EXPANSION REMAINED STRONGThe year 2007 was again characterised by strong monetary and credit growth, following the strengthening observed since mid-2004.
, ki sta v zadnjem četrtletju leta 2007 znašali 12,0% oziroma 11,2%.
demand growth.
rast povpraševanja v državah nečlanicah OECD.
Demand in most non-OECD countries, in particular China, remained strong, reflecting robust economic performance.
Povpraševanje v večini držav nečlanic OECD, zlasti Kitajske, je zaradi okrepljene gospodarske aktivnosti ostalo močno.
In addition, oil demand was supported by subsidies on oil products in many of these countries.
Poleg tega so povpraševanje po nafti spodbujale tudi subvencije za naftne proizvode v številnih od teh držav.
Inventories in both the United States and the OECD countries failed to build up before the northern hemisphere heating season, a period when inventories normally increase.
ZDA in države OECD niso uspele napolniti zalog pred začetkom ogrevalne sezone na severni polobli (tj. v obdobju, ko se zaloge navadno povečajo).
The low level of oil inventories triggered concerns about the lack of a safety cushion against possible future supply disruptions (related to geopolitical tensions and extreme weather) at a time when oil market conditions were already tight.
Ob nizkih zalogah se je pojavila zaskrbljenost zaradi pomanjkanja varnostne rezerve, če bi prišlo do motenj dobave v prihodnosti (zaradi geopolitičnih napetosti in ekstremnih vremenskih razmerah) v času, ko so bile razmere na trgu že zaostrene.
Towards the end of the year, prices became increasingly volatile as a result of changing market perceptions about a slowdown in the US and global economy and some unwinding of speculative activity.
Proti koncu leta so cene nafte vse bolj nihale, saj so se tržne ocene o upočasnitvi ameriškega in svetovnega gospodarstva spreminjale, špekulativne dejavnosti pa so se nekoliko zmanjšale.
Prices stayed at high levels, however, as the International Energy Agency confirmed the positive outlook for global oil demand in 2008 owing to strong non-OECD demand growth and hinted at possible lower rates of oil discovery over the next decade.
Cene so kljub temu ostale visoke, saj je Mednarodna agencija za energijo (IEA) potrdila pozitivna pričakovanja glede svetovnega povpraševanja po nafti v letu 2008 zaradi močne rasti povpraševanja držav nečlanic OECD in nakazala možnost zmanjšanja odkritij nafte v naslednjem desetletju.
A broad-based analysis of monetary developments shows that the growth of M3 in 2007 may somewhat overstate the underlying rate of monetary expansion, owing to the stimulative effect of the relatively flat yield curve, which increased the attractiveness of shortterm MFI deposits relative to longerterm deposits and securities.
Širša analiza denarnih gibanj kaže, da bi lahko rast denarnega agregata M3 v letu 2007 prikazovala nekoliko precenjeno osnovno stopnjo denarne rasti, saj se je zaradi stimulativnega učinka razmeroma položne krivulje donosnosti povečala privlačnost kratkoročnih vlog pri MFI v primerjavi z dolgoročnimi vlogami in vrednostnimi papirji.
Consequently, strong M3 growth may, to some extent, have been driven by speculative demand for monetary assets.
Močna rast agregata M3 bi zato utegnila biti v glavnem posledica špekulativnega povpraševanja po denarnih sredstvih.
At the same time, the increases in key ECB interest rates since December 2005 have clearly continued to influence money and credit developments.
Hkrati so na gibanje denarja in kreditov še naprej vplivali tudi dvigi ključnih obrestnih mer ECB od decembra 2005 dalje.
The impact of these increases in shortterm interest rates on monetary dynamics remained visible, for example, in the
Vpliv dvigov kratkoročnih obrestnih mer na denarna gibanja je ostal opazen, kot na primer pri umirjanju medletnih stopenj rasti denarnega agregata M1 in posojil sektorju gospodinjstev.
Chart 5 M3 and loans to the private sector
Graf 5 M3 in posojila zasebnemu sektorju
(annual percentage changes; adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)
(medletne spremembe v odstotkih; desezonirano in koledarsko prilagojeno)
M3loans to the private sector
Mposojila zasebnemu sektorju
Not only oil but also other commodity prices increased markedly in 2007.
V letu 2007 se niso občutno povečale le cene nafte, pač tudi cene drugih surovin.
The prices of non-energy commodities, as measured by the Hamburg Institute of International Economics, continued to be buoyant in most of 2007 and peaked in mid-October amid some volatility.
Cene primarnih surovin brez energentov, merjene s skupnim indeksom hamburškega inštituta za ekonomske raziskave, so se večino leta 2007 še naprej dvigovale in sredi oktobra ob določenih nihanjih dosegle najvišje vrednosti.
In the first half of the year non-energy commodity prices were supported both by strong increases in industrial raw materials prices and by surges in agricultural prices attributable to strong economic growth, bad harvests and the increased use of agricultural raw materials in the production of biofuel.
V prvi polovici leta je k cenam primarnih surovin brez energentov prispevala močna rast cen industrijskih surovin ter skoki cen kmetijskih proizvodov, kar je mogoče pripisati močni gospodarski rasti, slabim letinam in povečani uporabi kmetijskih surovin za proizvodnjo biogoriva.
In the second half of the year the upward trend in agricultural and food prices continued, mainly driven by robust demand from China, while industrial raw materials (and in particular non-ferrous metals) prices declined, reflecting the slowdown in industrial production in OECD countries.
V drugi polovici leta se je trend zviševanja cen kmetijskih proizvodov in hrane nadaljeval, zlasti zaradi močnega povpraševanja Kitajske, medtem ko so se cene industrijskih surovin (zlasti barvnih kovin) znižale kot posledica upočasnitve industrijske proizvodnje v državah OECD.
In aggregate terms, non-energy commodity prices (denominated in US dollars) increased by an average of approximately 19% in 2007 compared with the previous year.
Celotno gledano so se cene primarnih surovin brez energentov (izražene v ameriških dolarjih) leta 2007 v primerjavi s preteklim letom zvišale povprečno za približno 19%.
Chart 6 Main components of M3 moderation in the annual growth rates of both M1 and loans to the household sector.
Graf 6 Glavne komponente M3 leta 2007 le omejeno vplivali na dinamiko širšega denarnega agregata.
most of the strong overall monetary expansion as well as its recent dynamics.
, potem ko so ob koncu leta 2006 dosegale nizke stopnje rasti.
COMPONENTS OF M3 WERE INFLUENCED BY THE FLAT YIELD CURVEOn the components side, the annual growth rate of M1 moderated further to stand at 4.1% at the end of 2007, well below the double-digit growth rates observed between 2003 and late 2005 before the key ECB interest rates were increased.
NA KOMPONENTE AGREGATA M3 JE VPLIVALA POLOŽNA KRIVULJA DONOSNOSTIKar zadeva komponente, se je medletna stopnja rasti agregata M1 dodatno umirila in je ob koncu leta 2007 znašala 4,1%, kar je precej pod dvomestnimi stopnjami rasti, ki so bile dosežene med letom 2003 in koncem leta 2005, preden je ECB zvišala ključne obrestne mere.
This moderation is visible in both components of M1, i.e. overnight deposits and currency in circulation.
Ta umiritev je opazna v obeh komponentah agregata M1, tj. v vlogah čez noč in v gotovini v obtoku.
M1 growth in 2007 was influenced mainly by two countervailing forces.
Na rast agregata M1 v letu 2007 sta vplivala predvsem dva nasprotujoča si dejavnika.
On the one hand, there was a dampening effect resulting from the rising opportunity cost of holding M1 associated with the increases in interest rates since December 2005.
Na eni strani je bil dvig oportunitetnih stroškov imetja agregata M1 zaradi zviševanja obrestnih mer po decembru 2005, kar je vplivalo na zmanjševanje rasti M1.
On the other hand, there was greater transaction-related demand for M1 given the continued strength of economic activity, as well as, potentially, a desire to hold M1 as a buffer in the context of the recent financial turmoil.
, saj so omo- čnih gočale večjo likvidnost in manj tveganja ob nižjih stroških z vidika donosov, kar je tudi prispevalo tudi k preusmeritvi od dolgoročnejših sredstev.
The strengthening observed since mid-2004 in the annual growth rate of shortterm deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) continued in 2007, with that growth rate reaching 17.8% in December (see Chart 6).
Krepitev medletne stopnje rasti kratkorovlog, razen vlog čez noč (M2-M1), ki jo opažamo od sredine leta 2004, se je leta 2007 nadaljevala in je decembra dosegla 17,8% (glej graf 6). Prispevek kratkoročnih vlog k medletni rasti M3 se
The contribution of these other shortterm deposits to annual M3 growth increased to 6.6 percentage points in December, with such deposits accounting for
Medletna stopnja rasti tržnih instrumentov čno okrepila že leta 2006, se je decembra 2007 pove čal na 6
The remuneration of shortterm time deposits has broadly followed the rise in shortterm money market interest rates (see Chart 7).
, ki se jemo mo je leta 2007 dodatno pove čala in je decembra zna- šala 19
The spread vis-à-vis the remuneration of shortterm savings deposits and overnight deposits has thus widened, as the remuneration of these deposits has increased more slowly and modestly, in line with historical patterns.
pri čemer so te vloge predstavljale večino skupne visoke rasti denarja in njene dinamike v zadnjem času.
This has supported shifts into time deposits from M1 and savings deposits.
Vendar pa močna rast zakriva različna gibanja v posameznih podkomponentah.
Moreover, with a relatively flat yield curve, shortterm time deposits have been attractive by comparison with riskier longermaturity assets outside M3, since they offer greater liquidity and less risk at little cost in terms of return, thereby supporting shifts away from longerterm assets as well.
To je v glavnem posledica vpliva razmeroma položne krivulje donosnosti v euroobmočju, ki je spodbudila preusmeritve v kratkoročna denarna sredstva. Posledično je bil prispevek teh instrumentov k medletni stopnji rasti M3 razmeroma velik in je decembra 2007 znašal 2,7 odstotne točke.
Chart 7 MFI interest rates on shortterm deposits and a money market interest rate
Graf 7 Obrestne mere MFI za kratkoročne vloge in obrestna mera denarnega trga
(percentages per annum) overnight depositsdeposits with an agreed maturity of up to one yeardeposits redeemable at notice of up to three monthsdeposits with an agreed maturity of one to two yearsthree-month EURIBOR
(odstotki na leto) so na voljo zanesljive informacije v nedenarnem sektorju, obsega kratkoročne vloge plus repo pogodbe (v nadaljevanju „vloge M
The annual growth rate of the aggregate M3 deposits of the household sector, the sector contributing the most to total M3 deposit growth, reached 8.1% in December 2007 (see Chart 8).
po krepitvi od sredine leta 2004 dalje nadaljevala tudi v prvi polovici leta 2007, decembra pa se je umirila na ravni 11,1%.
The upward trend observed in this growth rate since mid-2004 thus continued, supported by income and wealth growth and the increasing remuneration of M3 deposits.
Veliko povpraševanje podjetij po likvidnih sredstvih v letu 2007 je bilo v skladu z veliko dobičkonosnostjo in velikimi (tekočimi in pričakovanimi) podjetniškimi naložbami.
Having already strengthened considerably in 2006, the annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) increased further in the course of 2007, standing at 19.9% in December, up from 13.3% in December 2006.
Stopnja rasti vlog M3 drugih fi na n č - nih posrednikov, ki ne vključujejo zavarovalnic in pokojninskih skladov, je decembra 2007 medletno znašala 25,0%.
To a large extent, this reflects the impact of the relatively flat yield curve in the euro area, which encouraged shifts into shorter-term monetary assets.
Ta okrepitev je delno posledica povečanja zavarovanih medbančnih posojil, sklenjenih prek elektronskih trgovalnih platform, saj so se udeleženci na trgu zaradi izgube zaupanja v nasprotne stranke ob pretresih na fi nančnih trgih raje odločali za zavarovana kot nezavarovana medbančna posojila.
As a result, the contribution of these instruments to the annual growth rate of M3 was relatively strong, standing at 2.7 percentage points in December 2007.
Okrepitev je prav tako delno povezana s potrebo investicijskih skladov po vzdrževanju večjih rezerv gotovine, v četrtem četrtletju leta 2007 pa tudi z dodatnimi imetji vlog v okviru prevzema ene monetarne finančne institucije v euroobmočju prek nedenarnega fi finančnega posrednika s strani več drugih monetarnih fi nančnih institucij.
This strong contribution conceals divergent developments before and after the start of the fi financial turmoil, which become visible when looking at developments in the sub-components.
Za skupnim velikim prispevkom je mogoče opaziti različna gibanja pred nastopom fi nančnih pretresov in po njem, kar razkriva gibanje posameznih podkomponent.
For instance, the annual growth rate of money market fund shares/units strengthened continuously in the year to July 2007.
Medletna stopnja rasti točk/delnic skladov denarnega trga se je na primer do julija 2007 stalno krepila.
Some money market funds took on exposure to the structured credit market in order to boost returns and thereby outperform their benchmark money market rate.
Nekateri skladi denarnega trga so se izpostavili strukturiranemu kreditnemu trgu, da bi povečali donose in s tem dosegli boljše rezultate od primerjalnih obrestnih mer denarnega trga.
In the context of the financial turmoil, money market fund shares/units suffered particularly large net outflows in August and September and again in December, leading to a decline in their annual growth rate.
Ob fi nančnih pretresih so točke/delnice skladov denarnega trga avgusta in septembra ter ponovno decembra utrpele še posebno velike odlive, zato se je njihova medletna stopnja rasti zmanjšala.
Continuing the strengthening observed since late 2004, the annual growth rate of M3 deposits held by non-financial corporations increased further in the first half of 2007, before levelling off to stand at 11.1% in December 2007.The strong corporate demand for liquid assets in 2007 was in line with strong profitability and robust (current and expected) business investment.
ŽIVAHNA RAST POSOJIL ZASEBNEMU SEKTORJUMedletna stopnja rasti posojil MFI rezidentom euroobmočja se je po okrepitvi v letu 2004 in 2005 leta 2006 stabilizirala.
The growth rate of M3 deposits held by other financial intermediaries (OFIs), which do not includeinsurance corporations and pension funds, stood at 25.0% on an annual basis in December 2007.
Leta 2007 je ostala močna in je v četrtem četrtletju znašala 9,3% (glej graf 9).
To some extent, this strengthening reflects an increase in secured interbank lending settled through electronic trading platforms, as a loss of confidence in counterparties in the context of the financial market turmoil has caused market
Močna posojilna dejavnost MFI je bila posledica hitre rasti posojil zasebnemu sektorju, medtem ko so se posojila širši državi zmanjšala.
Chart 8 Sectoral M3 deposits
Graf 8 Vloge M3 po sektorjih
(annual percentage changes; contributions in percentage points)
(medletne spremembe v odstotkih; prispevki v odstotnih to č k a h )
(annual percentage changes; not adjusted for seasonal or calendar effects) nonfinancial corporationshouseholdsother financial intermediaries shares and other equitysecurities of the private sector other than sharessecurities of general government other than sharesloans to the private sectorloans to general governmentcredit to euro area residents
(medletne spremembe v odstotkih; nedesezonirano in koledarsko neprilagojeno) nefinančne družbegospodinjstvadrugi finančni posredniki delnice in drug lastniški kapitalvrednostni papirji zasebnega sektorja razen delnicvrednostni papirji širše opredeljene države razen delnicposojila zasebnemu sektorjuposojila širše opredeljeni državikrediti rezidentom euroobmočja
Source: ECB.Note: The reporting sector comprises MFIs excluding the Eurosystem.
Vir: ECB.Opomba: Poro čevalski sektor vključuje MFI brez Eurosistema.