natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
However , the slope of the money market yield curve should be interpreted with some caution , since by historical standards the spreads between unsecured EURIBOR rates and secured rates ( such as EUREPO rates ) were exceptionally pronounced during the second half of the year at maturities beyond the very short term as a result of the turbulence seen in money markets since August 2007 .
Krivuljo donosnosti denarnega trga je treba razlagati z določeno mero previdnosti , saj so bile razlike med obrestnimi merami EURIBOR na nezavarovanem trgu in obrestnimi merami na zavarovanem trgu ( npr . EUREPO ) v drugi polovici leta glede na pretekla gibanja zelo izrazite pri ročnostih , daljših od zelo kratkoročnih , na kar so vplivali pretresi na denarnih trgih po avgustu 2007 .
Interest rates implied by three-month EURIBOR futures for 2008 increased in the course of 2007 .
Obrestne mere , ki jih kažejo terminske pogodbe na 3-mesečni EURIBOR za leto 2008 , so se v letu 2007 zvišale .
Nonetheless , this too must be interpreted with caution given the sharp increases seen in EURIBOR rates in the context of the money market tensions , which are likely to blur the usual information content of these rates with regard to interest rate expectations .
Vendar je tudi tu potrebna previdnost , saj so se obrestne mere EURIBOR ob napetostih na denarnem trgu skokovito povišale , kar bi lahko zameglilo običajne informacije , ki jih je mogoče izluščiti iz teh obresti v zvezi s pričakovanji prihodnjih obrestnih mer . Obrestne mere v terminskih pogodbah na 3-mesečni EURIBOR z zapadlostjo marca , junija in septembra 2008 so 29 .
On 29 February 2008 the interest rates implied by three-month futures contracts maturing in March , June and September 2008 stood at 4.36% , 4.05% and 3.71% respectively , i.e. 33 and 6 basis points higher and 27 basis points lower than on 2 January 2007 .
februarja 2008 znašale 4,36% , 4,05% oziroma 3,71% , tj . 33 in 6 bazičnih točk več oziroma 27 baznih točk manj kot 2 .
During the first half of 2007 the implied volatility derived from options on three-month EURIBOR futures decreased .
V prvi polovici leta 2007 je implicitna volatilnost , izpeljana iz opcij na terminske pogodbe na 3-mesečni EURIBOR , upadla .
However , implied volatilities then increased significantly from August onwards as the tensions in money and financial markets took hold ( see Box 2 ) .
Implicitna volatilnost pa se je močno povečala po avgustu , ko so se pojavile napetosti na denarnih in finančnih trgih ( glej okvir 2 ) .
THE VOLATILITY OF MONEY MARKET INTEREST RATES IN 2007 When assessing developments in the money market during 2007 , it is important to analyse not only the level of interest rates ( as described in the main text ) but also their volatility .
VOLATILNOST OBRESTNIH MER DENARNEGA TRGA V LETU 2007 Pri ocenjevanju gibanj na denarnem trgu v letu 2007 je treba analizirati ne le raven obrestnih mer ( kot v glavnem besedilu ) , temveč tudi njihovo volatilnost .
Two issues are particularly relevant in this regard : i ) assessing the impact of monetary policy decisions on the money markets ; and ii ) analysing how well the market functions , in particular as regards the transmission of monetary policy signals from the short end to the long end of the interest rate maturity spectrum .
V zvezi s tem je posebno pomembno dvoje : i ) ocena , kako sklepi o denarni politiki vplivajo na denarne trge , in ii ) analiza delovanja trga , zlasti glede transmisije signalov denarne politike s krajšega na daljši del razpona ročnosti obrestnih mer .
As far as the first issue is concerned , central banks strive to ensure that their policy actions and communication do not themselves foster unnecessary uncertainty ( e.g. by adding « noise » to the economy ) , which would typically manifest itself in higher volatility in financial markets .
Kar zadeva prvo , si centralne banke prizadevajo , da njihovi ukrepi politike in sporočila ne bi že sami po sebi povzročali nepotrebnih negotovosti ( npr .
As regards the second issue , analysing volatility offers insights into the microstructure of money markets and the efficiency with which they operate .
z dodatnim „hrupom » v gospodarstvu ) , kar bi se zagotovo jasno pokazalo v večji volatilnosti na finančnih trgih .
1 For instance , comparing the volatility of 1 One issue is thus the question of how to measure the volatility of interest rates and financial yields . This is discussed in the article entitled « The analysis of the euro money market from a monetary policy perspective » in the February 2008 issue of the ECB 's Monthly Bulletin .
Kar zadeva drugo , analiza volatilnosti omogoča vpogled v mikrostrukturo denarnih trgov in učinkovitost njihovega delovanja .
interest rates at specific maturities with the average level of volatility across the whole maturity spectrum may allow the central bank to detect atypical movements in some segments of the money market , which , in turn , could be related to imperfections in the market 's structure and might impede the effective transmission of the monetary policy impulse .
1 Primerjava volatilnosti obrestnih mer določenih ročnosti s povprečno stopnjo volatilnosti v celotnem razponu lahko na primer centralnim bankam omogoči odkriti netipična gibanja v nekaterih segmentih denarnega trga , ki so lahko povezana z nepravilnostjo v strukturi trga in lahko preprečujejo učinkovito transmisijo ukrepov denarne politike .
Against this background , an analysis of the volatility of money market interest rates over the course of 2007 may help to shed light on the impact of the financial turmoil observed as of August 2007 .
Na podlagi tega lahko z analizo volatilnosti obrestnih mer denarnega trga v letu 2007 osvetlimo vpliv finančnih pretresov po avgustu 2007 .
This box focuses on developments in the unsecured segment of the interbank market ( i.e. transactions conducted without collateral ) , the segment most affected by the turmoil .
V tem okvirju se osredotočamo na gibanja v nezavarovanem segmentu medbančnega trga ( tj . na transakcije , izvedene brez zavarovanja ) , na katerega so pretresi najbolj vplivali .
It considers volatility measures derived from the overnight interest rate , interbank deposit rates at one , three , six and twelve-month maturities and the three-month EURIBOR ( for which a variety of derivative contracts exist ) .
Upoštevamo merila volatilnosti , izvedena iz obrestne mere čez noč , obrestne mere za medbančne vloge z 1 -, 3 -, 6 - in 12-mesečno ročnostjo ter 3-mesečni EURIBOR ( za katerega obstajajo različne izvedene finančne pogodbe ) .
2 The evolution of money market interest rate volatility in 2007 Chart A shows the evolution of historical realised volatility in the overnight interest rate in 2007 .
2 Gibanje volatilnosti obrestnih mer denarnega trga v letu 2007 V grafu A je prikazano gibanje pretekle realizirane volatilnosti obrestnih mer čez noč v letu 2007 .
Between January and mid-July realised volatility was relatively low , standing at levels similar to those observed in recent years .
Med januarjem in sredino julija je bila realizirana volatilnost razmeroma nizka in na podobni ravni kot v zadnjih letih . Volatilnost je kazala običajni vzorec občasnega povečanja , ki je bilo omejeno na posamezna obdobja , tj .
Volatility exhibited the usual pattern of periodic rises confined to specific periods , namely the days between the last main refinancing operation and the last day of the reserve maintenance period . Following the increased volatility observed in most financial markets towards the end of July , growing tensions in the money market were observed in early August on account of the rising uncertainty related to banks » potentially large losses on their investments in US sub-prime mortgage markets and related instruments .
dneve med zadnjo operacijo glavnega refinanciranja in zadnjim dnevom obdobja izpolnjevanja obveznih rezerv . Po povečani volatilnosti , ki jo je bilo proti koncu julija mogoče opaziti na večini finančnih trgov , so se na začetku avgusta pojavile vedno večje napetosti na denarnem trgu , ki so bile posledica vse večje negotovosti zaradi potencialno velikih izgub bank pri naložbah v trge drugorazrednih hipotekarnih posojil v ZDA in s tem povezane instrumente .
This resulted in higher demand for overnight liquidity and a sharp rise in the level of volatility .
To je povzročilo večje povpraševanje po likvidnosti čez noč in skokovito povečanje volatilnosti . Volatilnost je ostala na zelo visoki ravni do oktobra , ko so se razmere nekoliko stabilizirale , delno zaradi učinkovitosti likvidnostne politike ECB pri reševanju napetosti na denarnem trgu .
Volatility remained at very high levels until October , 2 The two measures of volatility reviewed in this box , namely realised historical volatility and implied volatility , are described in detail in the box entitled « Measuring volatility in the money market » in the article referred to in footnote 1 .
To vprašanje je obravnavano v članku z naslovom „The analysis of the euro money market from a monetary policy perspective » , Monthly Bulletin ECB , februar 2008 . 2 Dve merili volatilnosti , ki sta obravnavani v tem okvirju ( realizirana pretekla volatilnost in implicitna volatilnost ) , sta podrobno opisani v okvirju z naslovom „Measuring volatility in the money market » v članku , ki je naveden v opombi 1 .
Chart A Daily realised volatility of the overnight interest rate ( basis points ) daily realised volatility of the overnight rate centred 21-day moving average
Graf A Dnevna realizirana volatilnost obrestne mere čez noč ( bazične točke ) dnevna realizirana volatilnost obrestne mere čez noč sredinjena 21-dnevna drseča sredina
Chart B Daily realised volatility of longer-term deposit interest rates ( basis points ) one-month deposit interest rate three-month deposit interest rate twelve-month deposit interest rate centred 21-day moving average ( one month ) centred 21-day moving average ( three months ) centred 21-day moving average ( twelve months ) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan. Mar .
Graf B Dnevna realizirana volatilnost dolgoročnih obrestnih mer za vloge ( bazične točke ) 1-mesečna obrestna mera za vloge 3-mesečna obrestna mera za vloge 12-mesečna obrestna mera za vloge sredinjena 21-dnevna drseča sredina ( 1 mesec ) sredinjena 21-dnevna drseča sredina ( 3 meseci ) sredinjena 21-dnevna drseča sredina ( 12 mesecev ) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 jan. mar .
May July 2007 Sep. Nov . Jan. 2008 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
maj jul. 2007 sep. nov . jan. 2008 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan. Mar .
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 jan. mar .
May July 2007 Sep. Nov . Jan. 2008
maj jul. 2007 sep. nov . jan. 2008
Sources : Reuters and ECB estimates .
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Vira : Reuters in ocene ECB .
Sources : Reuters and ECB estimates .
Vira : Reuters in ocene ECB .
The overnight interest rate was again characterised by unusually high levels of volatility , particularly approaching the end of the year amid widespread market concerns regarding a potential liquidity shortage at the turn of the year . When considering longer-term rates -- namely deposit interest rates with a maturity of one , three or twelve months -- the profile which emerges is broadly similar ( see Chart B ) .
Če pogledamo dolgoročnejše obrestne mere -- obrestne mere za vloge z 1 -, 3 - in 12-mesečno ročnostjo -- se pokaže približno enaka dinamika ( glej graf B ) . Kljub temu obstajajo velike razlike , zlasti težnja dolgoročnejših obrestnih mer , da se ostreje odzivajo na avgustovske pretrese .
However , some significant differences emerge , with longer-term interest rates showing , in particular , a tendency to react more sharply to the August turmoil . What explained the increased volatility in August 2007 Between the end of June and early August it became clear that a number of European financial institutions had incurred substantial losses on their activities in the US sub-prime mortgage markets .
Kaj je vzrok za povečano volatilnost v avgustu 2007 ? Med koncem junija in začetkom avgusta je postalo jasno , da so številne evropske finančne institucije doživele precejšnje izgube pri svojih dejavnostih na drugorazrednih hipotekarnih trgih v ZDA .
As concerns about exposure to US sub-prime mortgage defaults intensified , the ability of conduits to refinance themselves diminished and demand for liquidity on the part of banks needing to provide credit to these conduits increased .
Ko se je zaskrbljenost glede izpostavljenosti neizpolnitvi obveznosti iz ameriških drugorazrednih hipotekarnih posojil okrepila , se je zmožnost prehodnih družb , da se same refinancirajo , zmanjšala , povpraševanje po likvidnosti s strani bank , ki so morale kreditirati prehodne družbe , pa se je povečalo .
These phenomena were further exacerbated by difficulties in the valuation of these financial products .
To so še poslabšale težave pri vrednotenju teh finančnih proizvodov .
The increased demand for liquidity , together with a loss of trust among counterparties , resulted in a tendency to hoard liquidity on the part of a large proportion of banks , and overall market liquidity thus declined significantly .
Povečano povpraševanje po likvidnosti je skupaj z izgubo zaupanja med nasprotnimi strankami povzročilo , da se je velik delež bank nagibal k tezavriranju likvidnosti , zato se je skupna likvidnost trga občutno zmanjšala .
Interest rates in the money market increased significantly , not least in the overnight segment , where the interest rate reached , on an intraday basis , levels almost 70 basis points above the minimum bid rate .
Obrestne mere na denarnem trgu so se precej zvišale , tudi v segmentu vlog čez noč , ko je bila obrestna mera na dnevni osnovi skoraj 70 bazičnih točk višja kot izklicna obrestna mera .
On 9 August , in view of the strong demand for liquidity in the overnight market , which was also causing a substantial increase in very short-term market interest rates , the Eurosystem injected a significant amount of liquidity into the market for that day through an overnight refinancing operation .
Glede na veliko povpraševanje po likvidnosti na trgu čez noč , kar je tudi povzročilo občutno zvišanje zelo kratkoročnih obrestnih mer na trgu , je Eurosistem 9 . avgusta z operacijo refinanciranja čez noč na trg ponudil veliko količino likvidnosti .
As money market tensions persisted , increases were observed in interest rates in the longer-term segments of the unsecured money market ( i.e. on interbank loans not secured by an exchange of collateral ) , leading to spreads against the secured segments of up to five times the historical average .
Ker so se napetosti na denarnem trgu nadaljevale , so se zviševale tudi obrestne mere v dolgoročnejših segmentih nezavarovanega denarnega trga ( tj . za medbančna posojila , ki niso zavarovana z izmenjavo finančnega premoženja ) , kar je povzročilo , da so razlike v primerjavi z zavarovanim segmentom znašale tudi do petkrat več od dolgoročnega povprečja .
In order to facilitate a better distribution of liquidity among banks , the Eurosystem conducted various forms of liquidity-providing operation during the second half of the year .
Da bi omogočili boljšo porazdelitev likvidnosti med banke , je Eurosistem v drugi polovici leta izvedel več različnih oblik operacij zagotavljanja likvidnosti .
These measures , together with an active communication policy , helped the market to function more smoothly , at least in the short term , and helped to reassure banks that their liquidity needs would be fulfilled .
Ti ukrepi so skupaj z aktivno politiko komuniciranja vsaj kratkoročno prispevali k bolj nemotenemu delovanju trga in pomagali prepričati banke , da bodo njihove potrebe po likvidnosti izpolnjene .
As a result , the level of volatility in the secured market decreased somewhat for various maturities .
Raven volatilnosti na zavarovanem trgu se je tako pri več ročnostih nekoliko znižala .
Comparison of developments in realised and implied volatilities Implied volatility3 is calculated on the basis of options based on forward-looking expectations , thereby providing some indications of volatility over the horizon covered by the contracts ( three months for the standard EURIBOR futures contracts ) . By contrast , realised volatility reflects the perceived uncertainty prevailing in the market .
39 Primerjava med gibanjem realizirane in implicitne volatilnosti Implicitna volatilnost 3 se izračuna na podlagi opcij , ki temeljijo na daljnosežnih pričakovanjih in s tem omogočajo določen vpogled v volatilnost med obdobjem , ki ga pokrivajo pogodbe ( 3-mesečne terminske pogodbe na EURIBOR ) .
3 The implied volatility used for this box is derived from options on three-month futures contracts with a constant six months to maturity . ECB Annual Report 2007
Nasprotno pa realizirana volatilnost odraža zaznano negotovost , ki prevladuje na trgu .
41 Chart C Realised volatility and implied volatility for three-month money market interest rates ( basis points ) realised volatility ( three-month interest rate ) realised volatility -- centred 21-day moving average implied volatility derived from options on three-month EURIBOR futures ( constant six months to maturity ) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan. Mar .
Graf C Realizirana volatilnost in implicitna volatilnost 3-mesečnih obrestnih mer denarnega trga ( bazične točke ) realizirana volatilnost ( 3-mesečna obrestna mera ) realizirana volatilnost -- sredinjena 21-dnevna drseča sredina implicitna volatilnost na podlagi opcij na terminske pogodbe 3-mesečni EURIBOR ( s stalno zapadlostjo čez 6 mesecev ) 25 20 15 25 20 15
May July 2007 Sep. Nov . Jan. 2008 25 20 15 10 5 0 Although the profiles of the two volatility measures are broadly similar , developments in implied volatility are more pronounced than those in realised volatility calculated on the basis of the three-month deposit interest rate .
Čeprav je krivulja obeh meril volatilnosti v 10 10 glavnem podobna , so gibanja implicitne vola5 5 tilnosti izrazitejša kot gibanja realizirane volatilnosti , izračunane na podlagi 3-mesečne obre0 0 jan. mar . maj jul. sep . nov. jan . stne mere za vloge .
Looking at Chart C , implied volatility started increasing in mid-July , before rising more strongly in early August , with pronounced fluctuations being observed thereafter .
V grafu C lahko vidimo , da 2007 2008 se je implicitna volatilnost začela povečevati Vira : Reuters in ocene ECB . sredi julija in se okrepila na začetku avgusta , pri čemer je izrazito nihala .
A similar development was observed for realised volatility calculated on the basis of three-month deposit interest rates , although the rise in this measure was more gradual and , overall , more contained , including in August ( i.e. in the most critical period for the euro money market ) . Sources : Reuters and ECB estimates .
Podobno povečanje je bilo mogoče opaziti pri realizirani volatilnosti , izračunani na podlagi 3-mesečnih obrestnih mer za vloge , vendar je bilo tu povečanje bolj postopno in na splošno bolj umirjeno , tudi v avgustu , ko je bilo najbolj kritično obdobje za denarni trg .
These developments observed in the two volatility measures mostly reflect the nature of these measures .
Gibanje obeh meril volatilnosti večinoma odraža naravo vsakega od meril .
While the increase in the realised volatility of the three-month interest rate reflects the perceived tensions in the three-month unsecured segment of the money market , implied volatility also takes into account the uncertainty surrounding the future impact of the tensions resulting from the announcements made by a number of European banks regarding their exposure to securitised products related to the sub-prime mortgage market .
Medtem ko povečanje realizirane volatilnosti 3-mesečne obrestne mere odraža zaznane napetosti v 3-mesečnem nezavarovanem segmentu denarnega trga , pa implicitna volatilnost upošteva tudi negotovost glede prihodnjega vpliva napetosti , ki izhaja iz dejstva , da so številne evropske banke objavile svojo izpostavljenost listinjenim proizvodom , povezanimi z drugorazrednim hipotekarnim trgom .
In particular , these ongoing tensions in the money market have led to increased uncertainty regarding the future financial and macroeconomic environment , which is captured by the measure of implied volatility , but not by the realised volatility measure .
Zaradi nadaljevanja napetosti na denarnem trgu se je povečala negotovost glede prihodnjega finančnega in makroekonomskega okolja , kar je zajeto v implicitni in ne v realizirani volatilnosti .
Following the exceptionally high levels observed until the beginning of September , the realised volatility measure declined somewhat during that month , possibly in response to the generous liquidity policy conducted as of mid-August .
Po izjemno visoki ravni do začetka septembra se je realizirana volatilnost v tem mesecu nekoliko zmanjšala , verjetno kot odziv na velikodušno likvidnostno politiko od sredine avgusta dalje .
At the same time , implied volatility remained high , probably affected by the more pronounced tensions in the unsecured segment of the market , particularly at the three-month horizon , although it also showed a tendency to decline in September .
Hkrati je implicitna volatilnost ostajala visoka , verjetno zaradi izrazitejših napetosti v nezavarovanem segmentu trga , še posebno v 3-mesečnem obdobju , čeprav je septembra tudi ta volatilnost kazala znake upadanja .
Overall , notwithstanding the above-mentioned declines , both measures broadly stabilised thereafter , although at levels higher than those prevailing before the onset of the turmoil in August , indicating that a return to the stable market conditions that prevailed prior to the turmoil may take some time .
Kljub navedenemu znižanju pa sta se obe merili pozneje večinoma ustalili , čeprav na višjih ravneh , kot so prevladovale pred začetkom pretresov v avgustu , kar kaže , da bo za vrnitev na stabilne pogoje trga , ki so prevladovali pred pretresi , verjetno potrebno nekaj časa .
LARGE SWINGS IN GLOBAL BOND MARKETS IN 2007 Long-term government bond yields in the euro area stood at 4.4% at the end of 2007 , which was around 40 basis points higher than the levels prevailing one year earlier ( see Chart 12 ) .
VELIKA NIHANJA NA SVETOVNIH OBVEZNIŠKIH TRGIH V LETU 2007 Donosnost dolgoročnih državnih obveznic v euroobmočju je ob koncu leta 2007 zanašala 4,4% , kar je bilo okrog 40 bazičnih točk več kot leto prej ( glej graf 12 ) .
However , this fairly small overall increase in yields masks relatively marked swings within the year .
Znotraj dokaj majhnega skupnega povečanja donosnosti pa so bila nihanja med letom razmeroma izrazita .
In particular , the financial turmoil emanating from problems in the US real estate sector led to heightened volatility in the global bond markets in the latter part of the year .
Tako so finančni pretresi , ki so izvirali iz težav v ameriškem nepremičninskem sektorju , proti koncu leta povzročili večjo volatilnost na svetovnih obvezniških trgih .
Underlying the moderate overall change in long-term nominal bond yields in the euro area were slight increases in the real yields offered on ten-year inflation-linked bonds and
Razlog za zmerno skupno spremembo nominalne donosnosti dolgoročnih obveznic v euroobmočju je bilo rahlo zvišanje realne donosnosti desetletnih obveznic , vezanih na inflacijo , in s tem povezanih dolgoročnih izvedenih stopenj inflacije .
daily data ) euro area United States 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
Donosnost obveznic , vezanih na inflacijo , ki zapadejo leta 2015 -- merilo dolgoročne realne obrestne mere -- je ob koncu leta 2007 znašala 2 %, okrog 20 bazičnih točk več kot ob koncu leta 2006 .
inflation rate five years ahead , which measures market participants » long-term inflation expectations and related risk premia , increased by 20 basis points in 2007 , standing close to the 2.4% mark at the end of the year .
Petletna terminska izvedena stopnja inflacije čez pet let , ki meri dolgoročna inflacijska pričakovanja in ustrezne premije za tveganja , se je leta 2007 zvišala za 20 bazičnih točk in je ob koncu leta znašala skoraj 2,4% .