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Legal framework >ECB institutional provisions >ECB opinions ">ECB Opinion on the appointment of a member of the ECB 's Executive Board [ en ]
Legal framework >ECB institutional provisions >ECB opinions ">ECB Opinion on the appointment of a member of the ECB 's Executive Board [ sl ]
ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 21 August 2009 , ECB staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the euro area .
MAKROEKONOMSKE PROJEKCIJE STROKOVNJAKOV ECB ZA EUROOBMOČJE Strokovnjaki ECB so na podlagi podatkov , ki so bili na voljo do 21 . avgusta 2009 , pripravili projekcije makroekonomskih gibanj za euroobmočje .
1 Reflecting the prospects of a slow recovery worldwide , average annual real GDP growth is projected to be negative in 2009 , between - 4.4% and - 3.8% , before moving to between - 0.5% and + 0.9% in 2010 .
1 Zaradi predvidenega počasnega okrevanja v svetu bo povprečna letna realna rast BDP po projekcijah v letu 2009 negativna in se bo gibala med - 4,4% in - 3,8% , v letu 2010 pa se bo povečala na - 0,5% do + 0,9% .
The currently assumed high level of slack in the euro area economy is expected to dampen inflationary pressures .
Trenutno predpostavljena visoka raven neizkoriščenega potenciala v gospodarstvu euroobmočja bo po pričakovanjih zavirala inflacijske pritiske .
The average rate of increase in the overall HICP is projected to be between 0.2% and 0.6% in 2009 , rising to between 0.8% and 1.6% in 2010 .
Povprečna stopnja rasti skupnega indeksa HICP je za leto 2009 napovedana med 0,2% in 0,6% , za leto 2010 pa med 0,8% in 1,6% .
Technical assumptions about interest rates , exchange rates , commodity prices and fiscal policies The technical assumptions about interest rates and both energy and non-energy commodity prices are based on market expectations , with a cut-off date of 14 August 2009.2 The assumption about short-term interest rates is of a purely technical nature .
Tehnične predpostavke o obrestnih merah , deviznih tečajih , cenah primarnih surovin in fiskalnih politikah Tehnične predpostavke o obrestnih merah ter cenah energentov in drugih primarnih surovin temeljijo na tržnih pričakovanjih , s presečnim datumom na dan 14 . avgusta 2009 .
Short-term rates are measured by the three-month EURIBOR , with market expectations derived from futures rates .
2 Predpostavka o kratkoročnih obrestnih merah je povsem tehnične narave . Kratkoročne obrestne mere se merijo s 3-mesečno obrestno mero EURIBOR , tržna pričakovanja pa so izpeljana iz obrestnih mer terminskih pogodb .
The methodology gives an overall average level of short-term interest rates of 1.3% for 2009 and 1.6% for 2010 .
Metodologija kaže na skupno povprečno raven kratkoročnih obrestnih mer v višini 1,3% v letu 2009 in 1,6% v letu 2010 .
The market expectations for euro area tenyear nominal government bond yields imply an average level of 4.1% in 2009 and 4.3% in 2010 .
Tržna pričakovanja glede nominalne donosnosti 10-letnih državnih obveznic euroobmočja kažejo na povprečno raven v višini 4,1% v letu 2009 in 4,3% v letu 2010 .
The baseline projection takes into account the recently observed signs of improvement of financial conditions and assumes that , over the projection horizon , short-term bank lending rate spreads vis-à-vis the three month EURIBOR will narrow further .
Osnovne projekcije upoštevajo nedavno opažena znamenja o izboljšanju finančnih razmer in predpostavljajo , da se bo razpon kratkoročnih bančnih obrestnih mer za posojila glede na 3-mesečni EURIBOR v obdobju projekcij še zožil .
Similarly , credit supply conditions are assumed to ease gradually over the horizon .
Podobno naj bi se kreditni pogoji v tem obdobju postopno omilili .
As regards commodities , on the basis of the path implied by futures markets in the twoweek period ending on the cut-off date , oil prices per barrel are assumed to average USD 62.4 in 2009 and USD 78.8 in 2010 .
Glede primarnih surovin je na podlagi gibanj na terminskih trgih v dvotedenskem obdobju , ki se je končalo na presečni datum , predpostavljeno , da bo povprečna cena nafte v letu 2009 znašala 62,4 USD za sod , v letu 2010 pa 78,8 USD za sod .
The prices of non-energy commodities in US dollars are assumed to fall significantly , by 21.4% , in 2009 but to rise by 17.1% in 2010 .
Cene drugih primarnih surovin razen energentov v ameriških dolarjih se bodo po predpostavkah v letu 2009 precej znižale , in sicer za 21,4% , v letu 2010 pa ponovno povečale za 17,1% .
The technical assumptions about bilateral exchange rates remain unchanged over the projection horizon at the average levels prevailing in the two-week period ending on the cut-off date .
Tehnične predpostavke o dvostranskih deviznih tečajih ostajajo v obdobju projekcij nespremenjene na povprečni ravni , ki je prevladovala v 2-tedenskem obdobju s koncem na presečni datum .
This implies a EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.38 in 2009 and of 1.43 in 2010 , and an effective exchange rate of the euro that appreciates by 0.1% in 2009 and by a further 0.6% in 2010 .
To pomeni , da bo devizni tečaj med eurom in ameriškim dolarjem ( EUR / USD ) v letu 2009 na ravni 1,38 in v letu 2010 na ravni 1,43 , efektivni tečaj eura pa bo v letu 2009 višji za 0,1% , v letu 2010 pa še za 0,6% .
Fiscal policy assumptions are based on individual euro area countries » national budget plans as available on 14 August 2009 . They include all policy measures that have already been approved by national parliaments or that have been specified in detail by governments and are likely to pass the legislative process .
Predpostavke o fiskalnih politikah temeljijo na proračunskih načrtih posameznih držav euroobmočja , ki so bili na voljo 14 . avgusta 2009 .
Assumptions with regard to the international environment The global economic outlook continues to be driven by the impact of the financial crisis .
Vključujejo vse tiste ukrepe politik , ki so jih nacionalni parlamenti že odobrili oziroma so že bili podrobno opredeljeni s strani vlade in bodo verjetno tudi sprejeti .
However , following the unprecedented synchronised plunge in global trade at the turn of the year , global growth is 1 The ECB staff macroeconomic projections complement the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections that are produced jointly by experts from the ECB and from the euro area national central banks on a biannual basis .
Projekcije ECB dopolnjujejo makroekonomske projekcije Eurosistema , ki jih dvakrat letno skupaj pripravijo strokovnjaki ECB in strokovnjaki nacionalnih centralnih bank euroobmočja .
The method used is documented in « New procedure for constructing ECB staff projection ranges » , ECB , September 2008 , available on the ECB 's website .
Uporabljena metoda je utemeljena v dokumentu New procedure for constructing ECB staff projection ranges , ECB , september 2008 , ki je dostopen na spletni strani ECB .
In view of the prevailing exceptional economic and financial circumstances , the uncertainty surrounding the projections is larger than usual at the current juncture .
Glede na izjemne ekonomske in finančne okoliščine je negotovost v zvezi s projekcijami trenutno večja kot običajno .
2 Oil and food price assumptions are based on futures prices up to the end of the horizon .
2 Predpostavke o cenah nafte in hrane temeljijo na terminskih cenah do konca obdobja projekcij .
For other commodities , prices are assumed to follow futures until the third quarter of 2010 and thereafter to develop in line with global economic activity .
Pri cenah drugih primarnih surovin se predpostavlja , da bodo do tretjega četrtletja leta 2010 sledile cenam terminskih pogodb , zatem pa naj bi se gibale skladno s svetovno gospodarsko aktivnostjo .
ECB ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area September 2009
ECB Makroekonomske projekcije strokovnjakov ECB za euroobmočje september 2009
estimated to have turned positive in the second quarter of 2009 and is expected to be slowly gaining momentum .
Po izjemnem sočasnem upadu svetovne trgovinske menjave ob prelomu leta se je svetovna rast v drugem četrtletju leta 2009 po ocenah vrnila v pozitivno območje in naj bi postopno dobivala zagon .
Nevertheless , in view of the widespread need to restructure balance sheets , global growth is projected to remain sluggish over the projection horizon .
Kljub temu bo glede na splošno nujnost prestrukturiranja bilanc stanja svetovna gospodarska rast v obdobju projekcij predvidoma ostala šibka .
Overall , world real GDP outside the euro area is projected to fall by 1.2% on average in 2009 but to grow by 2.7% in 2010 .
Gledano v celoti bo svetovni realni BDP zunaj euroobmočja po projekcijah v letu 2009 v povprečju upadel za 1,2% , nato pa v letu 2010 zrasel za 2,7% .
Reflecting the significant correction in global trade , foreign demand for euro area exports is expected to fall by 13.0% in 2009 , before recovering by 1.7% in 2010 .
Zaradi precejšnjega popravka v svetovni trgovinski menjavi bo tuje povpraševanje po izvozu euroobmočja v letu 2009 predvidoma upadlo za 13,0% , nato pa se bo v letu 2010 izboljšalo za 1,7% .
Real GDP growth projections Real GDP growth has been negative in the euro area since the second quarter of 2008 .
Projekcije realne rasti BDP Realna rast BDP v euroobmočju je bila od drugega četrtletja leta 2008 negativna .
Following the strong contraction in activity at the turn of the year , real GDP declined only slightly in the second quarter of 2009 .
Po izrazitem krčenju gospodarske aktivnosti ob prelomu leta se je realni BDP v drugem četrtletju leta 2009 le nekoliko zmanjšal .
In line with recent short-term economic indicators and surveys , real GDP is expected to continue to stabilise in the second half of the year , before gradually recovering in the course of 2010 .
Skladno z novejšimi kratkoročnimi ekonomskimi kazalniki in anketami se bo realni BDP v drugi polovici leta predvidoma še naprej stabiliziral , preden bo tekom leta 2010 postopno okreval .
The projected improvement is supported by the revival of exports .
K napovedanemu izboljšanju bo prispevala tudi oživitev izvoza .
Domestic demand is expected to benefit from the fiscal impulse measures implemented , a cyclical increase in inventories and the measures taken to facilitate the functioning of the financial system .
Domače povpraševanje naj bi spodbujali izvedeni ukrepi javnofinančnih spodbud , ciklično povečanje zalog in ukrepi , ki so bili sprejeti za boljše delovanje finančnega sistema .
The recovery is , however , expected to be uneven , given the temporary nature of some of the supporting factors , and rather sluggish , given the weakness of global activity and the high level of uncertainty .
Okrevanje bo po pričakovanjih kljub temu neenakomerno , ker so nekateri spodbujevalni dejavniki začasni , in dokaj počasno , ker je svetovna gospodarska aktivnost šibka , negotovost pa je velika .
Investment , in particular , is expected to decline until mid-2010 .
Zlasti naložbe naj bi se do sredine leta 2010 zmanjševale .
Private consumption is projected to be dampened by rising unemployment and weak consumer confidence , even though real incomes are supported by low inflation .
Zasebna potrošnja bo po projekcijah oslabljena zaradi vse večje brezposelnosti in nizkega zaupanja potrošnikov , čeprav bo realni dohodek spodbujala nizka inflacija .
Overall , after amounting to 0.6% in 2008 , real GDP growth in 2009 is expected to be negative , between - 4.4% and - 3.8% , before moving to between - 0.5% and + 0.9% in 2010 .
Potem ko je realna rast BDP v letu 2008 znašala 0,6% , bo v letu 2009 po pričakovanjih negativna in se bo gibala v razponu od - 4,4% do - 3,8% , v letu 2010 pa med 0,5% in + 0,9% .
The projections for imports and exports include intra-euro area trade .
Projekcije uvoza in izvoza vključujejo tudi trgovinsko menjavo znotraj euroobmočja .
Price and cost projections Reflecting base effects related to past hikes in commodity prices , average annual HICP inflation is expected to fall to between 0.2% and 0.6% in 2009 , from 3.3% in 2008 .
Projekcije cen in stroškov Zaradi baznih učinkov , ki so posledica preteklih skokov cen primarnih surovin , bo povprečna medletna inflacija , merjena z indeksom HICP , v letu 2009 predvidoma padla na raven med 0,2% in 0,6% , potem ko je leta 2008 znašala 3,3% .
While these base effects will reverse in the coming months , the weak economic outlook for the euro area is expected to keep domestic price pressures contained , with inflation projected to be between 0.8% and 1.6% in 2010 .
Čeprav se bodo ti bazni učinki v prihodnjih mesecih obrnili , naj bi slabi gospodarski obeti v euroobmočju zavirali cenovne pritiske iz domačega okolja , pri čemer se projekcije inflacije v letu 2010 gibljejo med 0,8% in 1,6% .
The growth of compensation per employee , which registered a strong increase in 2008 , is expected to decline significantly in 2009 and to recover slowly thereafter , with contained wage growth in both the public and ECB ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area September 2009 2
Rast sredstev za zaposlene , ki so se v letu 2008 močno povečala , se bo po pričakovanjih v letu 2009 precej umirila in se zatem počasi okrepila , pri čemer bo rast plač omejena tako v javnem kot tudi v zasebnem sektorju , saj se razmere na trgu dela poslabšujejo , inflacija pa ostaja umirjena .
private sectors as the labour market deteriorates and inflation remains subdued . Lower profit margins are projected to dampen inflation in 2009 before recovering again .
Inflacijo naj bi v letu 2009 zavirale manjše stopnje dobička , preden se bodo spet okrepile .
Comparison with the June 2009 projections Compared with the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections published in the June 2009 issue of the Monthly Bulletin , the ranges projected for real GDP growth in both 2009 and 2010 have been adjusted upwards , reflecting the better than expected GDP outturn for the second quarter of 2009 and slightly more favourable prospects for domestic and external demand in the remainder of this year .
Primerjava s projekcijami iz junija 2009 V primerjavi z makroekonomskimi projekcijami strokovnjakov Eurosistema , objavljenimi v Mesečnem biltenu junija 2009 , so bili razponi predvidene rasti realnega BDP za leti 2009 in 2010 popravljeni navzgor , kar odraža boljše rezultate v drugem četrtletju leta 2009 od pričakovanih in nekoliko ugodnejša pričakovana gibanja v domačem in tujem povpraševanju v preostanku leta .
The ranges projected for the annual rate of increase in the overall HICP in 2009 and 2010 have also been adjusted slightly upwards with respect to those of June 2009 , reflecting mainly upward revisions to energy prices and , to a lesser extent , the upward revisions to the real GDP growth projections .
Razponi napovedane medletne stopnje rasti skupnega indeksa HICP v letih 2009 in 2010 so se v primerjavi z junijem ravno tako nekoliko pomaknili navzgor , kar odraža predvsem navzgor popravljene cene energentov ter v manjši meri tudi navzgor popravljene projekcije realne rasti BDP .
Table B Comparison with the June 2009 projections ( average annual percentage changes )
Tabela B Primerjava s projekcijami iz junija 2009 ( povprečne medletne spremembe v odstotkih )
Real GDP -- June 2009 Real GDP -- September 2009 HICP -- June 2009 HICP -- September 2009
Realni BDP -- junij 2009 Realni BDP -- september 2009 HICP -- junij 2009 HICP -- september 2009
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Restoration trials Trial restoration of the concrete grid facade with sample windows © Robert Metsch .
Poskusna obnova pročelja iz betonskih okvirov z vzorčnimi okni © Robert Metsch .
Analyses and trials
Analize in poskusi
The Grossmarkthalle needs to be restored and renovated to ensure that the building is structurally sound for the next few decades .
Grossmarkthalle je potrebna obnove , da bo konstrukcijsko ostala trdna tudi v prihodnjih desetletjih .
With a view to drawing up a renovation concept , building restorers and structural engineers carried out thorough analyses and restoration trials on the Grossmarkthalle during the period 2005 &ndash; 07 .
Restavratorji in statiki so zato med leti 2005 in 2008 pred pripravo koncepta obnove izvedli temeljite analize in poskusne obnove stavbe .
Engineers assessed the structural soundness of the building and thus its suitability for further use , while building restorers searched for original surfaces and evaluated their condition .
Statiki so analizirali trdnost konstrukcije in s tem njeno primernost za nadaljno rabo , restavratorji pa so poiskali ohranjene prvotne povr &scaron; ine in ocenili njihovo stanje .
This produced a number of damage patterns that will need to be treated using a range of different measures .
Tako so pridobili vrsto vzorcev po &scaron; kodb , ki jih bo z različnimi ukrepi treba odpraviti .
Original materials
Prvotni materiali
Inside the wing buildings , only a few surfaces have been preserved in their original state .
V notranjosti krilnih stavb je le nekaj povr &scaron; in ostalo v prvotnem stanju .
For example , parts of the staircases and the checkout area are still in their original state ; in the foyer of the western wing building the original decorative brick pattern still exists under the plaster .
Ohranjeni so na primer deli stopni &scaron; č in prostor z blagajnami , v preddverju zahodnega krila pa je pod ometom &scaron; e vedno originalni okrasni vzorec iz opek .
These surfaces will be uncovered and restored .
Te povr &scaron; ine bodo odkrite in obnovljene .
In the event that they need to be added to , this will be done using neutral , subtle materials that are in keeping with the original materials .
Manjkajoči deli bodo nadome &scaron; čeni z nevtralnimi materiali , ki se ujemajo s prvotnimi .
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EDITORIAL 14 June 2007 - Monthly Bulletin
14 . junij 2007 - Mesečni bilten
At its meeting on 6 June 2007 , the Governing Council decided to raise the minimum bid rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem by 25 basis points , to 4.00% , with effect from the start of the new reserve maintenance period on 13 June 2007 .
junija 2007 sklenil , da poviša izklicno obrestno mero za operacije glavnega refinanciranja Eurosistema za 25 bazičnih točk na 4,00% . Ta obrestna mera začne veljati z začetkom novega obdobja izpolnjevanja obveznih rezerv na dan 13 .
It was also decided to increase the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility by 25 basis points , to 5.00% and 3.00% respectively .
Prav tako je sklenil , da za 25 bazičnih točk poviša obrestni meri za odprto ponudbo mejnega posojila in odprto ponudbo mejnega depozita , ki tako znašata 5,00% oziroma 3,00% .
These decisions also became effective at the start of the new reserve maintenance period on 13 June 2007 .
Tudi ti obrestni meri začneta veljati z začetkom novega obdobja izpolnjevanja obveznih rezerv na dan 13 . junija 2007 .
The Governing Council 's decision was taken in view of the prevailing upside risks to price stability over the medium term that the Governing Council has identified through both its economic and monetary analyses .
Svet ECB je sprejel takšno odločitev zaradi obstoječih tveganj navzgor usmerjenih pritiskov na cenovno stabilnost v srednjeročnem obdobju , ki jih je Svet ugotovil s pomočjo ekonomske in denarne analize .
This decision will continue to help ensure that medium to longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area remain solidly anchored at levels consistent with price stability .
Ta odločitev bo še naprej prispevala k temu , da ostanejo srednjeročna in dolgoročnejša inflacijska pričakovanja v euroobmočju trdno zasidrana na ravni , ki je skladna s stabilnostjo cen .
After this interest rate increase , given the positive economic environment in the euro area , monetary policy is still on the accommodative side , with overall financing conditions favourable , money and credit growth vigorous , and liquidity in the euro area ample .
Po tem dvigu obrestnih mer je glede na pozitivno gospodarsko okolje v euroobmočju denarna politika še vedno pretežno akomodativna , saj so splošni pogoji financiranja ugodni , rast obsega denarja in kreditov je živahna , likvidnost v euroobmočju pa je obsežna .
Looking ahead , acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability in the medium term is warranted . The Governing Council will monitor closely all developments to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise .
Za zagotovitev stabilnosti cen v srednjeročnem obdobju bo v prihodnje potrebno odločno in pravočasno ukrepanje . Svet ECB bo natančno spremljal vsa gibanja in tako zagotovil , da se tveganja za stabilnost cen v srednjeročnem obdobju ne uresničijo .
Considering the Governing Council 's assessment in greater detail , starting with the economic analysis , incoming information clearly confirms that the euro area economy continues to expand at a pace which is significantly stronger than generally expected a year ago. With a quarter-on-quarter rate of 0.6% , real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2007 was again somewhat above previous expectations .
Če si podrobneje ogledamo oceno Sveta ECB , najnovejši podatki iz ekonomske analize nedvomno potrjujejo , da gospodarstvo euroobmočja še naprej raste s precej močnejšo dinamiko , kot smo pričakovali pred enim letom . Realna rast BDP je v prvem četrtletju 2007 v primerjavi s prejšnjim četrtletjem znašala 0,6% , kar je bilo spet nekoliko nad prejšnjimi pričakovanji .
Other available information on economic activity , notably various surveys of business and consumer confidence , suggests that solid growth has continued into the second quarter .
Drugi razpoložljivi podatki o gospodarski aktivnosti , zlasti različne ankete o zaupanju podjetij in potrošnikov , kažejo , da se je trdna rast nadaljevala tudi v drugem četrtletju .
The conditions are in place for the euro area economy to continue to grow at a sustained rate .
Razmere omogočajo nadaljnjo rast gospodarstva euroobmočja po doseženi stopnji .
As regards the external environment , global economic growth has become more balanced across regions and , while moderating somewhat , remains robust .
Kar zadeva mednarodno okolje , je svetovna gospodarska rast postala regionalno bolj uravnotežena in ostaja kljub manjšemu umirjanju močna , tako da zunanje okolje še naprej spodbuja izvoz euroobmočja .
External conditions thus continue to provide support for euro area exports .
Tudi domače povpraševanje v euroobmočju bo po pričakovanjih ohranilo razmeroma močan zagon .