natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
In the first half of 2007 long-term government bond yields rose markedly on both sides of the Atlantic .
V prvi polovici leta 2007 se je donosnost dolgoročnih državnih obveznic izrazito povečala na obeh straneh Atlantika .
In the euro area , the yields on government bonds with a ten-year maturity increased by a maximum of around 70 basis points between the end of December 2006 and early July 2007 , whereas ten-year bond yields in the United States peaked in mid-June at a level around 60 basis points higher than at the end of 2006 . The upturn in euro area long-term interest rates reflected markets » expectations of strong economic growth .
V euroobmočju se je donosnost državnih obveznic z desetletno zapadlostjo med koncem decembra 2006 in začetkom julija 2007 zvišala za največ okrog 70 bazičnih točk , medtem ko je donosnost desetletnih obveznic v ZDA dosegla najvišjo raven sredi junija , ki je bila za okrog 60 bazičnih točk višja kot ob koncu leta 2006 .
This assessment was consistent with what were , on average , better than expected data releases on macroeconomic and business sentiment . The gradual increase in euro area bond yields was briefly interrupted on two occasions in the first six months of 2007 .
Dvig dolgoročnih obrestnih mer euroobmočja je odražal tržna pričakovanja o visoki gospodarski rasti .
First , long-term bond yields fell in late February and early March , following a pronounced decline in risk appetite and resulting portfolio shifts from stock markets to bond markets .
Ta ocena je bila skladna z objavljenimi podatki o makroekonomski in poslovni klimi , ki so bili v povprečju boljši od pričakovanih .
Second , in early June long-term bond yields rose markedly , reflecting strong sell-offs originating in the US bond markets . All in all , the relatively strong recovery observed in nominal euro area bond yields in the first half of 2007 was driven mainly by an increase in the real interest rate component .
Postopno zviševanje donosnosti obveznic euroobmočja je bilo v prvih šestih mesecih leta 2007 za kratek čas prekinjeno ob dveh priložnostih .
At the same time , market participants » longterm inflation expectations in the euro area and the related risk premia edged up only marginally over this period . For instance , the five-year forward break-even inflation rate five years ahead increased by 10 basis points in the first six months of 2007 , standing at a level of 2.3% at end-June ( see Chart 13 ) .
Prvič , donosnost dolgoročnih obveznic se je ob koncu februarja in na začetku marca znižala po izrazitem upadu nagnjenosti k tveganju , čemur so sledile preusmeritve portfeljev z delniških na obvezniške trge . Drugič ,
In the summer months of 2007 concerns relating to the state of the US real estate market began to mount .
Graf 12 Donosnost dolgoročnih državnih obveznic 1 ) ( odstotki na leto ;
In particular , it became clear that borrowers with the lowest level of creditECB Annual Report 2007
dnevni podatki ) euroobmočje ZDA 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5
in corresponding long-term break-even inflation rates .
donosnost dolgoročnih obveznic se je v začetku junija izrazito zvišala zaradi velike odprodaje , ki je izvirala iz ameriških obvezniških trgov .
The yield on inflation-linked government bonds maturing in 2015 -- a measure of longterm real interest rates -- stood at 2 % in late 2007 , around 20 basis points higher than at the end of 2006 .
Vse kaže , da je bila razmeroma močna okrepitev nominalne donosnosti obveznic euroobmočja v prvi polovici leta 2007 predvsem posledica zvišanja komponente realne obrestne mere .
The five-year forward break-even Chart 13 Spot and forward break-even inflation rates in the euro area ( percentages per annum ;
Hkrati so se dolgoročna inflacijska pričakovanja v euroobmočju in ustrezne premije za tveganja v tem obdobju le malo dvignile .
five-day moving averages of daily data ; seasonally adjusted ) five-year spot break-even inflation rate ten-year spot break-even inflation rate five-year forward break-even inflation rate five years ahead 2.6 2.6
Petletna terminska izvedena stopnja inflacije čez pet let na primer se je v prvih šestih mesecih leta 2007 zvišala za 10 bazičnih točk in je ob koncu junija znašala 2,3% ( glej graf 13 ) .
2.0 1.8 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sources : Reuters and ECB calculations .
V poletnih mesecih leta 2007 je začela naraščati zaskrbljenost glede ameriškega nepremičninskega trga .
worthiness were experiencing problems in repaying « sub-prime » mortgages taken out during the period of very low interest rates between 2002 and 2004 . Investors initially felt that the problems would be restricted to the United States and that only a relatively limited set of assets would be affected .
Zlasti je postalo jasno , da imajo posojilojemalci z najnižjo kreditno sposobnostjo težave pri odplačevanju tako imenovanih drugorazrednih hipotek , ki so bile sklenjene v obdobju zelo nizkih obrestnih mer med letoma 2002 in 2004 .
In late July that relatively benign scenario was seriously challenged when it became clear that European financial institutions , too , were heavily exposed to the US sub-prime mortgage market . In some limited cases , the losses from such exposures even endangered the financial health of the institutions concerned .
Vlagatelji so na začetku mislili , da bodo težave omejene na ZDA in da bo prizadeta le omejena skupina finančnega premoženja . Ob koncu julija je bil ta precej ugoden scenarij postavljen pred resno preizkušnjo , ko je postalo jasno , da so bile ECB Letno poročilo 2007
The revelation of such serious risks led to broader-based financial market turmoil with a general increase in risk aversion , prompting flight-to-safety portfolio shifts from riskier assets into government bonds , for example .
Graf 13 Promptne in terminske izvedene stopnje inflacije v euroobmočju ( odstotki na leto ; 5 dnevno drseče povprečje dnevnih podatkov ;
As a result of the turmoil , by the end of the year the yield on ten-year euro area government bonds had declined , overall , by 30 basis points by comparison with early July , being driven mainly by lower real yields .
desezonirano ) 5-letna promptna izvedena stopnja inflacije 10-letna promptna izvedena stopnja inflacije 5-letna terminska izvedena stopnja inflacije čez 5 let 2,6 2,6
The fall in US bond yields was far more pronounced , with the ten-year yield standing at the end of the year around 130 basis points lower than its peak in mid-June .
Mirne razmere na trgu pred obdobjem pretresov so verjetno spodbudile udeležence na trgu k sprejemanju naložbenih odločitev na podlagi ocen tveganja , ki so se izkazale kot preveč optimistične .
The more marked decline in US yields appears to reflect a weaker growth outlook for the US economy in the eyes of investors , as well as the decision of the FOMC to lower interest rates on 18 September , 31 October and 11 December .
Okvir 3 osvetljuje glavne podobnosti in razlike med pretresi leta 2007 in tistimi iz leta 1998 .
All in all , the recent turbulence came at the end of a relatively long period of calm market conditions . It is likely that the relatively tranquil market conditions prior to the turmoil led many market participants to take investment decisions on the basis of risk assessments that turned out to be too optimistic .
Petletna terminska izvedena stopnja inflacije čez pet let se je v zadnjih šestih mesecih leta 2007 zvišala za nadaljnjih 10 bazičnih točk in je ob koncu leta znašala 2,4% .
Box 3 highlights the main similarities and differences between the turmoil of 2007 and that of 1998 . The five-year forward break-even inflation rate five years ahead increased by another 10 basis points over the last six months of 2007 , standing at 2.4% at the end of the year .
Skupno povečanje izvedenih stopenj inflacije v letu 2007 bi bilo lahko povezano tudi s poslabšanjem kratkoročnih pričakovanj glede inflacije , kar je bilo povezano predvsem s strmim naraščanjem cen nafte in hrane .
The overall increase in break-even inflation rates in 2007 might have been related to the deterioration in the short-term outlook for inflation , which was linked , in particular , to surging oil and food prices .
Vseeno pa ni jasno , v kolikšni meri skupno povečanje tega kazalnika kaže spremembe v dolgoročnih inflacijskih pričakovanjih tržnih udeležencev oziroma spremembe v premijah za tveganja .
It is unclear , however , to what extent the overall increase in this indicator reflects shifts in market participants » long-term inflation expectations and changes in the related risk premia .
Ocena udeležencev na trgu glede negotovosti obvezniškega trga v euroobmočju , merjena z implicitno volatilnostjo , je ostala v prvih šestih mesecih leta stabilna .
Market participants » perception of bond market uncertainty in the euro area , as measured by implied volatility , remained stable throughout the first six months of the year .
To je bilo posledica pričakovanj , da se bodo ugodne razmere v euroobmočju in v svetovnem gospodarstvu nadaljevale .
This reflected expectations of a continued favourable environment in both the euro area and the global economy . This favourable assessment on the part of investors changed on account of the turmoil , with the result that implied bond market volatility surged between June and August .
Takšna ugodna ocena se je pri vlagateljih zaradi pretresov spremenila , zato se je implicitna volatilnost obvezniškega trga med junijem in avgustom močno dvignila . Potem je implicitna volatilnost v euroobmočju ostala v glavnem nespremenjena na teh visokih ravneh .
Thereafter implied volatility in the euro area remained broadly unchanged at those somewhat elevated levels . In the first two months of 2008 euro area long-term bond yields declined by around 30 basis points to stand at 4.1% on 29 February .
V prvih dveh mesecih leta 2008 se je donosnost dolgoročnih obveznic v euroobmočju zmanjšala za približno 30 bazičnih točk in je 29 . februarja znašala 4,1% .
Similar declines in real yields offered on inflation-linked bonds suggest that market participants have , in early 2008 , become slightly more pessimistic regarding the prospects for economic activity in the euro area .
Podobno zmanjšanje realne donosnosti obveznic , vezanih na inflacijo , kaže , da so postali tržni udeleženci na začetku leta 2008 nekoliko bolj pesimistični glede prihodnje gospodarske aktivnosti v euroobmočju .
EURO AREA STOCK PRICES INCREASED AMID HIGH VOLATILITY IN 2007 Despite strong volatility over the year , euro area stock prices increased overall in 2007 , thereby continuing the upward trend observed since early 2003 ( see Chart 14 ) .
TEČAJI DELNIC EUROOBMOČJA SO SE LETA 2007 OB VISOKI VOLATILNOSTI ZVIŠALI Kljub močni volatilnosti v letu 2007 so se tečaji delnic euroobmočja skupno zvišali , tako da se je nada -
All in all , the Dow Jones EURO STOXX index ended the year with a gain of 5 % vis-à-vis the end of 2006 .
2,0 1,8 2004 2005 2006 2007 Vira : Reuters in izračuni ECB .
The stock markets in the United States likewise ended 2007 on a positive note , with the Standard & Poor 's 500 index having risen by 3.5% , while Japanese stock prices , as measured by the Nikkei 225 index , fell by around 11 %.
Razkritje tako resnih tveganj je povzročilo širše pretrese na finančnih trgih in splošno nenaklonjenost tveganju , čemur so takoj sledile preusmeritve portfeljev v okviru umika iz bolj tveganih finančnih sredstev v varnejša , na primer v državne obveznice . Zaradi pretresov se je donosnost desetletnih državnih obveznic euroobmočja do konca leta znižala za skupno 30 bazičnih točk v primerjavi z začetkom julija , predvsem zaradi nižje realne donosnosti .
As with developments on the bond markets , fluctuations in euro area stock prices were particularly pronounced in the summer months , when investors became reluctant to hold risky assets such as stocks . The
Znižanje donosnosti obveznic v ZDA je bilo precej izrazitejše , tako da je desetletna donosnost ob koncu leta znašala približno 130 bazičnih točk manj od najvišje vrednosti sredi junija . Izrazitejše znižanje ameriške donosnosti je bilo posledica slabših pričakovanj vlagateljev glede rasti ameriškega gospodarstva in sklepa Zveznega odbora za odprti trg ( FOMC ) , da 18 .
Chart 14 Major stock market indices 1 ) ( index rebased to 100 on 2 January 2007 ;
Graf 14 Najpomembnejši delniški indeksi 1 ) ( indeks 2 . januarja 2007 preračunan na novo osnovo 100 ;
daily data ) euro area Japan United States 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 120 110 100 90 80
dnevni podatki ) euroobmočje Japonska ZDA 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 120 110 100 90
Chart 15 Implied stock market volatility ( percentages per annum ;
Graf 15 Implicitna volatilnost delniških trgov ( odstotki na leto ;
ten-day moving averages of daily data ) euro area United States Japan 50 45 40 35 30 25 70 20 60 50 40 15 10 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20 15 10 5 50 45 40 35 30 25
dnevnih podatkov ) euroobmočje ZDA Japonska 50 45 40 35 30 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 80 25 70 60 50 40 20 15 10 5
Sources : Reuters , Thomson Financial Datastream and ECB calculations .
Viri : Reuters , Thomson Financial Datastream in izračuni ECB .
1 ) The Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index for the euro area , the Standard & Poor 's 500 index for the United States and the Nikkei 225 index for Japan .
1 ) Široki indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX za euroobmočje , indeks Standard & Poor 's 500 za ZDA in indeks Nikkei 225 za Japonsko .
Sources : Bloomberg and ECB calculations .
Vira : Bloomberg in izračuni ECB .
Notes : The implied volatility series reflects the expected standard deviation of percentage changes in stock prices over a period of up to three months , as implied in the prices of options on stock price indices .
Opomba : Časovna vrsta implicitne volatilnosti odraža pričakovan standardni odklon sprememb cen delnic v odstotkih v obdobju do 3 mesecev , kot jih kažejo predvidene cene opcij na indekse tečajev delnic .
The equity indices to which the implied volatilities refer are the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 for the euro area , the Standard & Poor 's 500 for the United States and the Nikkei 225 for Japan .
Indeksi tečajev delnic , na katere se nanaša implicitna volatilnost , so Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 za euroobmočje , Standard & Poor 's 500 za ZDA in Nikkei 225 za Japonsko .
positive overall performance of the stock markets in the euro area was due mainly to the continued strength of actual and expected earnings growth .
ljeval trend zviševanja , ki se je začel na začetku leta 2003 ( glej graf 14 ) .
Euro area stock prices tended to rise steadily in the first six months of 2007 .
Pozitivni skupni rezultati delniških trgov v euroobmočju so bili predvsem posledica še naprej močne dejanske in pričakovane rasti dobičkov . Cene delnic v euroobmočju so se v prvih šestih mesecih leta 2007 stalno dvigale .
This upward trend was temporarily interrupted in late February and early March , when stock prices in the euro area , mirroring developments in most other major markets , experienced a sharp correction partly triggered by developments in the Chinese markets .
Trend zviševanja je bil začasno prekinjen ob koncu februarja in na začetku marca , ko so cene delnic v euroobmočju podobno kot na večini drugih večjih trgov doživele občuten popravek , ki so ga delno sprožila giba - nja na kitajskih trgih .
The Dow Jones EURO STOXX index lost around 4 % of its value between 6 February and 7 March .
Indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX je med 6 . februarjem in 7 .
After that , the markets recovered , partly fuelled by increased risk appetite , by M & A activities and by the persistently favourable developments in earnings .
Potem so si trgi opomogli , delno zaradi večje nagnjenosti k tveganju , ter zaradi združitev in prevzemov in zaradi vztrajno ugodnega gibanja dobičkov .
Evidence of the robust manner in which earnings developed can be seen in the fact that between January and June the earnings per share of companies included in the Dow Jones EURO STOXX index grew at an average annual rate of close to 17 %.
O močni rasti dobičkov priča dejstvo , da se je med januarjem in junijem dobiček na delnico podjetij , ki so vključena v indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX , povečal s povprečno medletno stopnjo skoraj 17 %.
All in all , euro area stock prices stood in late June 10 % higher than the levels recorded at the end of 2006 .
V celoti gledano so bile cene delnic euroobmočja ob koncu junija 10 % višje kot ob koncu leta 2006 .
The optimism prevailing in global stock markets came to an abrupt halt with the outbreak of the financial turmoil , triggering a broad reassessment of credit and financial risks and heightened risk aversion among investors .
Optimizem , ki je prevladoval na svetovnih delniških trgih , se je nenadoma končal z izbruhom finančnih pretresov , kar je sprožilo splošno prevrednotenje kreditnih in finančnih tveganj in večjo nenaklonjenost tveganju med vlagatelji .
The resulting fall in euro area stock prices seems mainly to have reflected a strong upsurge in the equity risk premium demanded for holding euro area stocks , in particular those of firms in the financial sector .
Posledični padec cen delnic euroobmočja je bil , kot kaže , predvsem posledica močnega skoka premije za tveganje lastniškega kapitala pri imetjih delnic euroobmočja , zlasti podjetij v finančnem sektorju .
At the same time , implied stock market volatility picked up strongly and reached levels not observed since 2003 ( see Chart 15 ) .
Hkrati se je močno povečala implicitna volatilnost delniškega trga , ki je dosegla najvišje ravni po letu 2003 ( graf 15 ) .
The sell-off in the euro area stock markets was particularly strong in July and August , when the Dow Jones EURO STOXX price index lost around 5 % of its value .
Odprodaja na delniških trgih euroobmočja je bila posebno velika julija in avgusta , ko je indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX padel za približno 5 %.
In September and early October euro area stock prices witnessed a recovery similar to that observed after the short-lived correction in late ECB Annual Report 2007
Septembra in na začetku oktobra so se cene delnic euroobmočja spet dvignile , podobno kot po kratkotrajnem popravku ob koncu februarja in na začetku marca .
February and early March . Later on , however , between mid-October and the end of the year , investors » risk aversion increased again after a number of financial institutions revealed that they had suffered larger than expected losses in US sub-prime investments .
Pozneje , od sredine oktobra do konca leta , pa se je nenaklonjenost vlagateljev do tveganja spet povečala , potem ko je več finančnih institucij razkrilo , da so v naložbah na ameriškem hipotekarnem trgu utrpele večje izgube od predvidenih .
As a result , euro area and global stock prices plummeted and stock market uncertainty , as reflected in implied volatility , rebounded again to reach levels close to those observed in the summer months .
Zato so cene delnic euroobmočja in cene svetovnih delnic strmo padle , negotovost delniških trgov , ki se odraža v implicitni volatilnosti , pa se je spet povečala in dosegla visoke ravni , podobne tistim v poletnih mesecih .
The financial market turmoil had remarkably little impact on the expected and actual profitability of euro area firms .
Pretresi na finančnih trgih so presenetljivo malo vplivali na pričakovano in dejansko dobičkonosnost podjetij euroobmočja .
Between December 2006 and December 2007 the earnings per share of firms included in the Dow Jones EURO STOXX index grew by 15 %.
Dobiček na delnico podjetij , ki so vključena v indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX , se je med decembrom 2006 in decembrom 2007 zvišal za 15 %.
At the same time , analysts expected earnings to grow at an annual rate of around 9 % in 2008 .
Hkrati so analitiki pričakovali , da bodo dobički v dvanajstih mesecih do konca leta 2008 rasli z letno stopnjo okrog 9 %.
The fact that euro area firms » profitability was largely unaffected by the financial market turmoil probably helped to dampen the overall decline observed in the second half of 2007 . Box 3
Dejstvo , da finančni pretresi v glavnem niso vplivali na dobičkonosnost podjetij , je verjetno pripomoglo k ublažitvi splošnega upada v zadnjih šestih mesecih leta 2007 .
Looking at developments in individual sectors , the telecommunications and utility sectors strongly outperformed the overall index .
Če pogledamo gibanja po posameznih sektorjih , sta bila najuspešnejša sektor telekomunikacij in sektor javnih gospodarskih služb , ki sta dosegla bistveno boljše rezultate od skupnega indeksa .
The strong performance of these sectors was probably due to investors » preference for firms with relatively steady cash flows .
Velika uspešnost teh sektorjev je bila verjetno posledica naklonjenosti vlagateljev do podjetij z razmeroma stalnimi denarnimi tokovi .
At the same time , the financial sector underperformed by comparison with the overall index .
Hkrati je bil finančni sektor v primerjavi s skupnim indeksom manj uspešen .
The poor performance of this sector was related to increasing concerns about its profitability in the context of its generally strong exposure to assets linked either directly or indirectly to the ailing sub-prime mortgage market in the United States .
Slabša uspešnost tega sektorja je povezana z večjo zaskrbljenostjo glede dobičkonosnosti v okolju močne izpostavljenosti tega sektorja finančnemu premoženju , ki je neposredno ali posredno povezano s šibkim hipotekarnim trgom v ZDA .
In early 2008 continued credit risk concerns coupled with lower earnings expectations contributed to lower stock prices .
Na začetku leta 2008 je k nižjim tečajem delnic prispevala nadaljnja zaskrbljenost glede kreditnega tveganja skupaj z nižjimi pričakovanji glede dobičkov .
The Dow Jones EURO STOXX index and the Standard & Poor 's 500 index both fell , by 14 % and 9 % respectively , between the end of 2007 and 29 February 2008 .
Indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX in indeks Standard & Poor 's 500 sta se od konca leta 2007 do 29 . februarja 2008 znižala za 14 % oziroma za 10 %.
SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EPISODES OF FINANCIAL TURBULENCE IN 2007 AND 1998 In the second half of 2007 global financial market prices were seriously affected by a general repricing of financial risk , which spread from one specific credit market segment ( assets backed by US sub-prime mortgages ) to the credit markets as a whole and the financial system more generally .
PODOBNOSTI IN RAZLIKE MED NEMIRNIM DOGAJANJEM NA FINANČNIH TRGIH V LETIH 2007 IN 1998 V drugi polovici leta 2007 je na cene na finančnih trgih resno vplivalo splošno prevrednotenje finančnega tveganja , ki se je z enega segmenta kreditnega trga ( finančno premoženje , zavarovano z ameriškimi drugorazrednimi hipotekami ) razširilo na celotne kreditne trge in na finančni sistem na splošno .
The sequence and nature of the events characterising the recent turmoil resemble to some extent those of the financial market turbulence experienced in the second half of 1998 , typically referred to as the « LTCM crisis » .
Zaporedje in narava dogodkov , ki sta značilna za zadnje pretrese , sta v glavnem podobna tistim med nemirnim dogajanjem v drugi polovici leta 1998 , ki se navadno omenjajo kot „kriza LTCM » .
Looking at financial market indicators , this box highlights the main similarities and differences between the two episodes .
V tem okvirju z analizo kazalnikov finančnega trga osvetljujemo glavne podobnosti in razlike med tema epizodama .