natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
In the first half of 1998 most advanced economies experienced favourable market conditions in the form of surging stock prices , stable long-term bond yield developments and a narrowing of corporate bond spreads , partly fuelled by strong macroeconomic conditions ( see Charts A and B on US and euro area bond yields and stock prices ) . The generally tranquil global financial market environment began to change in the summer of 1998 .
V prvi polovici leta 1998 je večina razvitih gospodarstev doživljala ugodne tržne razmere v obliki strmo rastočih cen delnic , stabilne donosnosti dolgoročnih obveznic in zmanjševanja razponov donosnosti podjetniških obveznic , kar so deloma spodbujale ugodne makroekonomske razmere ( glej grafa A in B o donosnosti obveznic in tečajih delnic v ZDA in v euroobmočju ) .
The shifts observed in financial market sentiment and investors » risk appetite appeared to be closely related to two main factors : first , market participants became more pessimistic about the impact that the 1997 contraction in Asian emerging markets would have on the global economy ; and second , market concerns regarding the sustainability of Russian debt began to mount .
Večinoma mirne razmere na svetovnih finančnih trgih so se poleti leta 1998 začele spreminjati . Kazalo je , da
46 ECB Annual Report 2007
ECB Letno poročilo 2007
Chart A US and euro area long-term bond yields in 1998 and 2007 ( percentages per annum ) 1998 United States 2007 United States 1998 euro area 2007 euro area 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 - 120 - 100 - 80 - 60 - 40 - 20 0 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 20 40 60 80 100 120
Graf A Donosnost dolgoročnih obveznic v ZDA in euroobmočju leta 1998 in 2007 ( odstotki na leto ) 1998 ZDA 2007 ZDA 1998 euroobmočje 2007 euroobmočje 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 - 120 - 100 - 80 - 60 - 40 - 20 0 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 20 40 60 80 100 120
Chart B US and euro area stock prices in 1998 and 2007 ( index rebased to 100 on 17 August 1998 and 30 July 2007 ) 1998 United States 2007 United States 1998 euro area 2007 euro area 120 110 100 90 80 70 - 120 - 100 - 80 - 60 - 40 - 20 120 110 100 90 80 70 20 40 60 80 100 120
avgusta 1998 in 30 . julija 2007 preračunan na novo osnovo 100 ) 1998 ZDA 2007 ZDA 1998 euroobmočje 2007 euroobmočje 120 110 100 90 80 70 - 120 - 100 - 80 - 60 - 40 - 20 120 110 100 90 80 70 20 40 60 80 100 120
Sources : Reuters and ECB calculations .
Vira : Reuters in izračuni ECB .
Notes : The x-axis corresponds to the 120 business days before and after 17 August 1998 and 30 July 2007 respectively .
Opombe : Os x ustreza 120 delovnim dnem pred 17 . avgustom 1998 in 30 .
The 1998 date was that of the announcement of the Russian moratorium and the 2007 date was the point at which a German bank , IKB , warned of heavy losses from conduits / SIVs investing in US structured credit instruments .
Datum leta 1998 predstavlja razglasitev ruskega moratorija , datum leta 2007 pa točko , ko je nemška banka IKB posvarila pred močnimi izgubami iz sredstev prehodnih družb / strukturiranih investicijskih družb , investiranih v strukturirane kreditne instrumente ZDA .
The strong market reaction to the Russian default led to mounting concerns about a global credit crunch .
so bile spremembe v klimi na finančnih trgih in v nagnjenosti vlagateljev k tveganju tesno povezane z dvema glavnima dejavnikoma : prvič , udeleženci na trgu so postali bolj črnogledi glede vpliva , ki naj bi ga imelo krčenje azijskih nastajajočih trgov v letu 1997 na svetovno gospodarstvo , in drugič , zaskrbljenost trga v zvezi z vzdržnostjo ruskega dolga je začela naraščati .
Many hedge funds and banks » proprietary desks reported big losses , mainly as a result of the widening of corporate bond spreads and other risk spreads .
Zaradi močne reakcije trga na neizpolnjevanje finančnih obveznosti v Rusiji se je povečala zaskrbljenost , da bo prišlo do svetovne kreditne stiske .
The widening of spreads resulted in margin calls and a corresponding need for additional liquidity in order to fund positions .
Mnogi hedge skladi in banke so poročali o velikih izgubah , večinoma zaradi večanja razponov podjetniških obveznic in drugih razponov tveganja .
In early September 1998 short-term funding problems became particularly severe for one of the largest hedge funds -- Long-Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) .
Na začetku septembra 1998 so kratkoročne težave s financiranjem postale posebno resne za enega od največjih hedge skladov -- Long-Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) .
There were widespread concerns that LTCM would be forced to unwind big positions in already tight market conditions , which could in turn give rise to severe systemic risks for the global financial system .
Pojavila se je splošna zaskrbljenost , da bo sklad LTCM prisiljen zapreti velike pozicije v že tako zaostrenih tržnih razmerah , kar bi lahko po drugi strani povzročilo velika sistemska tveganja za svetovni finančni sistem .
However , several actions over the next few weeks helped the market to begin functioning normally again : first , on 23 September a private rescue plan was announced for LTCM ;
Več ukrepov , sprejetih v naslednjih nekaj tednih , pa je omogočilo , da je trg spet začel delovati normalno : 23 .
and second , the Federal Reserve decided to lower policy rates by a total of 100 basis points in three steps .
septembra je bil najavljen zasebni načrt za reševanje sklada LTCM , ameriška centralna banka pa je sklenila v treh korakih znižati svoje ključne obrestne mere za skupno 100 bazičnih točk .
Overall , the crisis had little impact on the real economy . Two notable similarities can be discerned between the episodes of turbulence in 2007 and 1998 , the first relating to the financial market environment prior to the turbulence and the second to the fact that in each case the factor triggering the turmoil was only a relatively small shock .
Pri obeh epizodah nemirnega dogajanja ( leta 2007 in leta 1998 ) lahko opazimo dve pomembni podobnosti . Prva se nanaša na razmere na finančnih trgih pred pretresi , druga pa na dejstvo , da je v obeh primerih pretrese sprožil razmeroma majhen šok .
As regards the first similarity , in both cases the environment prior to the turbulence was characterised by prolonged periods of general upward movements in asset prices across most segments , coupled with low levels of financial market volatility .
Kar zadeva prvo podobnost , so bila v obeh primerih za razmere pred pretresi značilna dolga obdobja splošnega zviševanja cen finančnega premoženja v večini segmentov , skupaj z nizkimi stopnjami volatilnosti finančnih trgov .
These very favourable market conditions may have led some investors to take investment decisions on the basis of risk assessments which turned out to be too optimistic .
Takšne zelo ugodne razmere na finančnih trgih so verjetno spodbudile nekatere vlagatelje k sprejemanju naložbenih odločitev na podlagi ocen tveganja , ki so se izkazale kot preveč optimistične .
As a result , those investors probably placed too much weight on recent experience , extrapolating recent trends that were at odds with long-run equilibrium values and probabilities .
Zato so se ti vlagatelji verjetno preveč zanašali na nedavne izkušnje in so ekstrapolirali nedavne trende , ki so bili v nasprotju z vrednostmi in verjetnostjo dolgoročnega ravnotežja .
Second , in both cases the financial turbulence erupted in the absence of major inflationary or economic shocks , the two crises being triggered , instead , by relatively small shocks ECB Annual Report 2007
Kar zadeva drugo podobnost , v obeh primerih so pretresi izbruhnili v obdobju , ko ni bilo večjih inflacijskih ali gospodarskih šokov , temveč so obe krizi sprožili razmeroma majhni šoki ( tj .
47 ( i.e. unexpected defaults in sizeable , although not extremely large , market segments ) which gave rise to general repricing of financial risk , leading to extreme price movements in specific market segments ( particularly the credit market segment ) .
nepričakovano neizpolnjevanje obveznosti v precejšnjih , vendar ne izjemno velikih segmentih trga ) , ki so povzročili splošno prevrednotenje finančnega tveganja , zato je prišlo do izjemno velikih sprememb cen v posameznih segmentih trga ( zlasti v segmentu kreditnega trga ) .
It cannot be ruled out that the strong market reactions may have been amplified by the above-mentioned tranquil market environment , in which valuations for some asset classes seem , at least ex post , to have been somewhat elevated from a fundamental point of view .
Ni mogoče prezreti , da so bili močni odzivi trga še večji zaradi prej navedenih mirnih razmer na trgu , kjer je bilo vrednotenje nekaterih razredov finančnega premoženja , vsaj gledano nazaj , s temeljnega vidika nekoliko visoko .
Despite the similarities reported above , developments during the two crises differ in a number of respects .
Kljub zgoraj navedenim podobnostim pa se razvoj dogodkov v obeh krizah razlikuje v številnih pogledih .
First , the financial innovations of the past decade in the field of credit risk transfer have substantially increased the difficulty of determining the sectors and specific entities in which such risks ultimately reside .
Prvič , zaradi finančnih inovacij v zadnjem desetletju na področju prenosa kreditnega tveganja je občutno težje določiti sektorje in posamezne subjekte , kjer dejansko tiči tveganje .
Although the increased use of securitisation , where illiquid loans are converted into liquid instruments , has enhanced investors » diversification opportunities , the pricing of these new products is , in many cases , extremely complex .
Čeprav se je z večjo uporabo listinjenja , kjer se nelikvidna posojila pretvorijo v likvidne instrumente , povečala možnost vlagateljev za razpršitev , je določitev cene teh novih proizvodov velikokrat izjemno zapleteno .
The surge in the use of these instruments and uncertainties regarding counterparties » exposures may partly explain recent developments in a number of market segments .
Skokovit porast uporabe teh instrumentov in negotovost v zvezi z izpostavljenostjo nasprotnih strank je lahko delni razlog za nedavna dogajanja v številnih segmentih trga .
Second , the recent turmoil has predominantly affected spreads and liquidity in the credit and money markets .
Drugič , zadnji pretresi so pretežno vplivali na razpone in likvidnost na kreditnih in denarnih trgih .
In 1998 , by contrast , liquidity dried up in the government bond markets , too , as many risky investment strategies pursued during this period also involved positions in government debt securities .
Nasprotno se je leta 1998 znižala tudi likvidnost na trgih državnih obveznic , ker je veliko tveganih naložbenih strategij v tem obdobju vključevalo tudi pozicije v državne dolžniške vrednostne papirje .
Third , the two charts show that there was some decoupling of asset price reactions in the euro area and the United States during the two financial crises .
Tretjič , grafa kažeta , da je med obema finančnima krizama prišlo do določenega razhajanja med euroobmočjem in ZDA pri odzivanju cen finančnega premoženja .
In 1998 stock prices dropped more sharply in the euro area than in the United States .
Leta 1998 so cene delnic bolj skokovito padle v euroobmočju kot v ZDA .
This difference in stock price performance was probably related to an increase in economic growth differentials between the two economies .
Razlika v tečajih delnic je bila verjetno povezana z večjo razliko v gospodarski rasti med obema območjema .
This could be seen in the fact that output growth was stable in the United States throughout 1998 , while in the euro area real GDP growth fell from an annual rate of 3.8% in the first quarter of 1998 to 2.4% in the fourth quarter .
O tem priča dejstvo , da je bila gospodarska rast v ZDA celo leto 1998 stabilna , medtem ko se je rast realnega BDP v euroobmočju z letne stopnje rasti 3,8% v prvem četrtletju leta 1998 znižala na 2,4% v zadnjem četrtletju .
By contrast , long-term bond yields declined by similar amounts in the two economies .
Nasprotno pa se je donosnost dolgoročnih obveznic v obeh gospodarstvih podobno znižala .
In 2007 , too , expected growth differentials may have contributed to the somewhat different patterns seen in euro area and US asset prices .
Možno je , da so tudi leta 2007 pričakovane razlike v rasti prispevale k nekoliko različnim gibanjem cen finančnega premoženja v euroobmočju in v ZDA .
For instance , the interest rate differential between US and euro area long-term bond yields narrowed in the months following the outbreak of the turmoil , even turning negative for the first time since early 2004 . It seems that in the latter part of 2007 market participants viewed the euro area economy as being somewhat more resilient to the recent turmoil than the US economy .
Razlika v obrestnih merah med donosnostjo dolgoročnih obveznic v euroobmočju in v ZDA na primer se je v mesecih po nastopu pretresov zmanjšala in je bila prvič po začetku leta 2004 celo negativna . Kaže , da so udeleženci na trgu v zadnjih mesecih leta 2007 menili , da je gospodarstvo euroobmočja nekoliko odpornejše proti zadnjim pretresom kot gospodarstvo ZDA .
Corresponding expectations of stronger monetary policy reactions in the United States on the back of such changes in investors » relative growth forecasts for the two economies contributed to this change of sign in the US-euro area long-term interest rate differential .
K spremembi predznaka v razliki med dolgoročnimi obrestnimi merami ZDA in euroobmočja je prispevalo tudi pričakovanje , da se bo denarna politika v ZDA močneje odzvala , tudi zaradi takšnih sprememb v napovedih vlagateljev o rasti obeh gospodarstev .
At the same time , US and euro area stock prices have moved more or less in tandem during the recent turbulence , suggesting a strong international factor driving stock prices on both sides of the Atlantic .
Hkrati so se tečaji delnic v euroobmočju in v ZDA med zadnjimi pretresi gibali bolj ali manj vzporedno , kar kaže , da na tečaje delnic na obeh straneh Atlantika vpliva močan mednarodni dejavnik .
Fourth , emerging markets have weathered the 2007 market turmoil much better than in 1998 .
Četrtič , nastajajoči trgi so pretrese leta 2007 prestali veliko bolje kot leta 1998 .
The moderate impact in 2007 suggests that emerging markets have , over the past decade , become more resilient to shocks in the global financial system .
Zmernejši učinek leta 2007 kaže , da so nastajajoči trgi v zadnjem desetletju postali odpornejši proti šokom v svetovnem finančnem sistemu .
While emerging markets » indebtedness played a central role in the 1998 turmoil , emerging markets have hardly been involved in the recent turmoil , cushioning instead the resulting risks for the global economy .
Medtem ko je zadolženost nastajajočih trgov v pretresih leta 1998 igrala osrednjo vlogo , ti v zadnje pretrese skoraj niso bili vpleteni , temveč so blažili nastala tveganja za svetovno gospodarstvo .
GRADUAL MODERATION IN THE DYNAMICS OF HOUSEHOLD BORROWING The dynamics of household borrowing slowed in the course of 2007 , reflecting the dampening impact of higher lending rates , lenders » more cautious assessment of credit risks and a moderation in housing market dynamics .
POSTOPNO UMIRJANJE DINAMIKE ZADOLŽEVANJA GOSPODINJSTEV Dinamika zadolževanja gospodinjstev se je leta 2007 upočasnila kot posledica zaviralnega učinka višjih posojilnih obrestnih mer , previdnejše ocene kreditnih tveganj s strani posojilodajalcev in umirjanja dinamike stanovanjskih trgov .
MFIs were the main source of household borrowing , with the annual growth rate of MFI loans to households remaining robust at 6.2% in December 2007 , having stood at 7.2% in mid-2007 and 8.2% at the end of 2006 . The gradual and continuous nature of this slowdown
Glavni vir zadolževanja gospodinjstev so bile monetarne finančne institucije , pri čemer je letna stopnja rasti posojil MFI gospodinjstvom decembra 2007 ostala visoka in je znašala 6,2% , potem ko je sredi leta 2007 znašala 7,2% , ob koncu leta 2006 pa 8,2% .
in lending to households suggests that it is being driven mainly by fundamental factors and that the financial turmoil has , so far , had a limited impact on lending to households .
Postopno in stalno zniževanje posojil gospodinjstvom kaže , da je bilo znižanje posledica predvsem temeljnih dejavnikov in da so finančni pretresi doslej le omejeno vplivali na posojila gospodinjstvom .
At the same time , the annual growth rate of loans to households by nonMFIs ( i.e. OFIs and insurance corporations and pension funds ) continued to exceed that of MFI loans to households in 2007 .
Hkrati je bila leta 2007 letna stopnja rasti zadolževanja gospodinjstev pri nedenarnih finančnih institucijah ( tj .
The breakdown of MFI loans to households by purpose indicates that the main driver of borrowing remained house purchases . The annual growth rate of loans for house purchase was 7.1% in December 2007 , having stood at 9.6% in December 2006 ( see Chart 16 ) .
pri drugih finančnih posrednikih , zavarovalnicah in pokojninskih skladih ) še naprej višja kot pri MFI .
This moderation wasconsistent with the slowdown observed in house price growth and housing market activity in a number of euro area economies .
Razčlenitev posojil MFI gospodinjstvom po namenu kaže , da so bili glavno gibalo zadolževanja še naprej nakupi stanovanj .
The results of the Eurosystem 's bank lending survey support this assessment , as in the course of 2007 banks identified housing market prospects and , increasingly , developments in consumer confidence as factors contributing to the dampening of households » demand for housing Chart 16 MFI loans to households ( annual percentage changes ) total lending for house purchase consumer credit other lending 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source : ECB .
Letna stopnja rasti Graf 16 Posojila MFI gospodinjstvom ( medletne spremembe v odstotkih ) skupaj stanovanjska posojila potrošniški krediti druga posojila 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Vir : ECB .
loans .
stanovanjskih posojil je decembra 2007 znašala 7,1% , potem ko je decembra 2006 znašala 9,6% ( glej graf 16 ) .
The moderation in loan growth observed towards the end of 2007 may also have reflected the dampening impact of tighter credit standards as banks became more worried about housing market prospects and the general economic outlook .
To umirjanje je bilo skladno z upočasnitvijo rasti cen stanovanj in aktivnosti na stanovanjskem trgu v številnih gospodarstvih euroobmočja .
The moderation in the annual growth rate of loans for house purchase also reflected the dampening impact of the increases in key ECB interest rates since December 2005 .
Rezultati ankete Eurosistema o bančnih posojilih to oceno potrjujejo , saj so po ugotovitvah bank slabša pričakovanja na stanovanjskem trgu in vedno bolj tudi spremembe zaupanja potrošnikov v letu 2007 dejavniki , ki so prispevali k zmanjšanju povpraševanja gospodinjstev po stanovanjskih posojilih .
Continuing the trend observed in 2006 , MFI lending rates for house purchase rose by 66 basis points between December 2006 and the end of December 2007 ( see Chart 17 ) .
Umirjanje rasti posojil proti koncu leta 2007 je bilo verjetno tudi posledica zaviralnega učinka strožjih kreditnih standardov , saj so banke postajale vse bolj zaskrbljene glede obetov na stanovanjskem trgu in splošnih gospodarskih obetov .
Rates increased more strongly for loans for house purchase with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to one year or over ten years than for loans with intermediate maturities .
Umirjanje letne stopnje rasti stanovanjskih posojil je bilo tudi posledica zaviralnega učinka zviševanja ključnih obrestnih mer ECB od decembra 2005 .
Similarly , although at a lower level , the annual growth rate of consumer credit declined to 5.3% in December 2007 , down from 7.7% at the end of 2006 .
Posojilne obrestne mere MFI so sledile trendu , ki smo mu bili priča leta 2006 , in so se med decembrom 2006 in koncem decembra 2007 dvignile za 66 bazičnih točk ( glej graf 17 ) .
The annual growth rate of consumer credit has declined in line with falling consumer confidence and the gradual moderation seen in the Chart 17 Interest rates for lending to households and non-financial corporations ( percentages per annum ;
Obrestne mere za stanovanjska Graf 17 Obrestne mere za posojila gospodinjstvom in nefinančnim družbam ( odstotki na leto ;
weight-adjusted ) short-term rates for lending to non-financial corporations long-term rates for lending to non-financial corporations rates for loans to households for house purchase rates for loans to households for consumer credit 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
ponderirano ) kratkoročne obrestne mere za posojla nefinančnim družbam dolgoročne obrestne mere za posojla nefinančnim družbam obrestne mere za stanovanjska posojila gospodinjstvom obrestne mere za potrošniška posojila gospodinjstvom 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Notes : For the period from December 2003 onwards , the weight-adjusted MFI interest rates are calculated using country weights constructed from a 12-month moving average of new business volumes .
Opombe : Za obdobje od decembra 2003 dalje se ponderirane obrestne mere MFI izračunajo s pomočjo uteži držav na podlagi 12-mesečne drseče sredine obsega novih poslov .
For the preceding period , from January to November 2003 , the weight-adjusted MFI interest rates are calculated using country weights constructed from the average of new business volumes in 2003 .
Za obdobje od januarja do novembra 2003 se ponderirane obrestne mere MFI izračunajo s pomočjo uteži držav na podlegi povprečja obsega novih poslov v letu 2003 .
For more information , see Box 3 in the August 2004 issue of the ECB 's Monthly Bulletin .
Več informaclj je na voljo v okviru 3 , Monthly Bulletin ECB , avgust 2004 .
ECB Annual Report 2007 49
ECB Letno poročilo 2007
growth of retail sales in the euro area .
posojila s spremenljivo obrestno mero in fiksno začetno obrestno mero do enega leta ali nad deset let so se povišale bolj kot za posojila z vmesnimi dospelostmi .
The results of the bank lending survey indicate that over the first three quarters of 2007 credit standards were eased on a net basis , thereby supporting the growth of loans , while in the fourth quarter , in the context of the financial turmoil , credit standards were tightened .
Letna stopnja rasti potrošniških posojil se je znižala v skladu z zmanjševanjem zaupanja potrošnikov in postopnim umirjanjem prodaje v trgovini na drobno v euroobmočju . Rezultati ankete o bančnih posojilih kažejo , da so se kreditni standardi v prvih treh četrtletjih leta 2007 neto nekoliko sprostili in s tem prispevali k rasti posojil , medtem ko so se kreditni standardi v četrtem četrtletju zaradi finančnih pretresov zaostrili .
In this regard , it should also be noted that banks reported growing concerns in the course of the year regarding consumer creditworthiness and the outlook for general economic activity , which may have reduced lending activity .
Ob tem je treba omeniti , da so banke med letom poročale o vedno večji zaskrbljenosti v zvezi s kreditno sposobnostjo potrošnikov in pričakovanji glede splošne gospodarske aktivnosti , kar bi tudi lahko vplivalo na zmanjšanje kreditne aktivnosti .
At the same time , MFI interest rates on consumer credit , which remained well above those on loans for house purchase , increased by 55 basis points between December 2006 and December 2007 , thus contributing to the dampening of demand for such loans .
Hkrati so se obrestne mere MFI za potrošniška posojila , ki so bile precej višje kot za stanovanjska posojila , med decembrom 2006 in decembrom 2007 zvišale za 55 bazičnih točk , kar je pripomoglo k zmanjšanju povpraševanja po teh posojilih .