natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
In 2006 market participants » long-term inflation expectations and related risk premia , as reflected in break-even inflation rates , seemed to remain broadly unchanged overall and stable across horizons at levels slightly above 2 % per annum . Information about inflation expectations and related risk premia at specific horizons can be obtained from the decomposition of ten-year break-even inflation rates into five-year breakeven rates and five-year implied forward rates five years ahead extracted from estimated term structures of break-even inflation rates ( see Chart 13 ) .
dobimo iz ocenjenih struktur ročnosti izvedenih inflacijskih stopenj ( glej graf 13 ) . 5 Razčlenitev pokaže , da so bila relativno stabilna srednjeročna do dolgoročna inflacijska pričakovanja , ki jih je odražal premik vstran petletnih implicitnih terminskih izvedenih inflacijskih stopenj za pet let vnaprej , povezana z bolj volatilnim gibanjem kratkoročnih do srednjeročnih inflacijskih pričakovanj .
5 The decomposition shows that relatively stable medium to long-term inflation expectations , reflected by the sideward movement of five-year implied forward breakeven rates five years ahead , were associated with more volatile developments in short to medium-term inflation expectations .
Dejansko so kratkoročna do srednjeročna inflacijska pričakovanja , merjena s petletno izvedeno inflacijsko stopnjo , v prvi polovici leta 2006 zrasla za kakšnih 30 bazičnih točk .
In fact , in the first half of 2006 short to medium-term inflation expectations measured by the fiveyear break-even inflation rate increased by some 30 basis points .
To povečanje kratkoročnih do srednjeročnih inflacijskih pričakovanj v razmerah porasta cen nafte se je skoraj izravnalo z ustreznim zmanjšanjem v drugi polovici leta 2006 .
This increase in short to medium-term inflation expectations in the context of a rise in oil prices was almost compensated for by a corresponding decline in the second half of 2006 .
Posledično se je krivulja izvedene inflacije euroobmočja v drugi polovici leta občutno izravnala ( glej graf 13 ) . 4
Consequently , in the second half of 2006 the euro area break-even inflation curve flattened considerably ( see Chart 13 ) . Euro area implied bond market volatility increased somewhat in May and June 2006 and then declined steadily in the second half of the year .
, Mesečni bilten ECB , december 2006 . Za podrobnosti ocene glej okvir z nastovom „Estimation of constant-maturity index-linked bond yields and break-even inflation rates for the euro area » , Monthly bulletin ECB , julij 2006 .
The temporary increase in implied bond market volatility in May and June seemed to reflect an increase in market participants » uncertainty about future interest rate movements in view of the stock market turbulence at this time . In the last quarter of 2006 euro area implied bond market volatility declined to historically low values , indicating a rather low level of market participants » uncertainty regarding near-term developments in long-term bond yields .
Implicitna volatilnost obvezniškega trga euroobmočja se je nekoliko povečala maja in junija 2006 , nato pa v drugi polovici leta vztrajno padala . Zdi se , da je začasno povečanje implicitne volatilnosti obvezniškega trga v maju in juniju odražalo večjo negotovost tržnih udeležencev glede prihodnjih gibanj obrestnih mer v takratnih turbulentnih razmerah na delniških trgih .
five-day moving averages of daily data ) five-year forward break-even inflation rate five years ahead five-year spot break-even inflation rate ten-year spot break-even inflation rate 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2004 2005 2006 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2007
V zadnjem četrtletju leta 2006 je implicitna volatilnost obvezniškega trga euroobmočja padla na zgodovinsko nizko raven , kar kaže na dokaj majhno negotovost tržnih udeležencev glede kratkoročnejših gibanj donosov dolgoročnih obveznic .
Sources : Reuters , Thomson Financial Datastream and ECB calculations .
V prvih dveh mesecih leta 2007 so donosi dolgoročnih obveznic euroobmočja ostali na splošno nespremenjeni in 2 .
that period , euro area long-term bond yields at first increased further to about 4.2% by midFebruary and experienced a decline thereafter .
marca znašali 4 %. Do srede februarja so najprej še porasli na kakšnih 4,2% , nato pa padali .
US long-term bond yields also declined in the second half of February .
Donosi dolgoročnih obveznic ZDA so tudi padli v drugi polovici februarja .
These developments seemed to result , to a large extent , from « flight to safety » portfolio shifts towards long-term government bonds in the light of the turmoil on the global stock market at the end of February .
Zdi se , da so ta gibanja v veliki meri povzročale prerazporeditve portfeljev v dolgoročne državne obveznice po načelu „beg v varen pristan » v razmerah nestabilnosti na svetovnih delniških trgih konec februarja 2007 .
EURO AREA STOCK PRICES INCREASED STRONGLY IN 2006 Euro area stock prices , despite some fluctuations , increased strongly in 2006 , thereby continuing the upward trend that began in early 2003 ( see Chart 14 ) .
DELNIŠKI TEČAJI EUROOBMOČJA SO LETA 2006 MOČNO ZRASLI V letu 2006 so delniški tečaji euroobmočja močno zrasli , navkljub manjšim nihanjem , in tako nadaljevali navzgor usmerjeni trend , ki se je začel na začetku leta 2003 ( glej graf 14 ) .
The Dow Jones EURO STOXX index ended the year with a gain of 20 % with respect to the end of 2005 , and thereby outperformed both the Standard & Poor 's 500 index and the Nikkei 225 index .
Indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX je konec leta pridobil kakšnih 20 % v primerjavi s koncem leta 2005 in tako prehitel indeksa Standard & Poor 's 500 in Nikkei 225 .
The strong performance of the euro area stock market relative to the US and Japanese stock markets has to be seen in 5 For details of the estimation , see the box entitled « Estimation of constant-maturity index-linked bond yields and break-even inflation rates for the euro area » in the July 2006 issue of the ECB 's Monthly Bulletin .
Na močno rast delniškega trga euroobmočja v primerjavi z rastjo delniških trgov ZDA in Japonske je treba gledati v luči relativno močne apreciacije eura do ameriškega dolarja in japonskega jena v letu 2006 .
ECB Annual Report 2006
Nedavno obdobje hitro rastočih
C h a r t 1 4 M a j o r s t o c k m a r ke t i n d i c e s 1 ) ( index : 30 December 2005 = 100 ;
G r a f 14 N a j p o m e m b n e j š i d e l n i š k i i n d e k s i 1 ) ( indeks : 30 . december 2005 = 100 ;
daily data ) euro area United States Japan 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2007 C h a r t 1 5 I m p l i e d s t o c k m a r ke t vo l a t i l i t y 1 ) ( percentages per annum ;
dnevni podatki ) euroobmočje ZDA Japonska 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2007
0 2007 Sources : Reuters , Thomson Financial Datastream and ECB calculations .
Viri : Reuters , Thomson Financial Datastream in izračuni ECB .
1 ) The Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index for the euro area , the Standard and Poor 's 500 index for the United States and the Nikkei 225 index for Japan .
1 ) Široki indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX za euroobmočje , indeks Standard & Poor 's 500 za ZDA in indeks Nikkei 225 za Japonsko .
Source : Thomson Financial Datastream . 1 ) The implied volatility for the euro area is measured by the VSTOXX index , which refers to the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 index , and the implied volatility for the United States is measured by the VIX index , which refers to the Standard & Poor 's 500 index .
delniških tečajev se razlikuje od druge polovice devetdesetih let prejšnjega stoletja , saj so tokrat razmerja tečaj-dobiček ostala bližje svojim dolgoročnim povprečjem .
Both indices reflect the expected standard deviation of percentage changes in the corresponding stock market indices over a period of 30 days . the light of a relatively strong appreciation of the euro against the US dollar and Japanese yen in 2006 .
Na splošno močna rast delniškega trga euroobmočja v letu 2006 prikriva prehodno vendar izrazito zmanjšanje delniških tečajev v drugem četrtletju leta .
The dampening effect of the euro appreciation on the profit outlook for euro area firms in export-sensitive sectors appears to have been more than offset by the robustness of actual and expected earnings growth of euro area companies against the background of a strongly improving economic outlook for the euro area economy . The recent period of fastgrowing stock prices differs from the second half of the 1990s as price-earnings ratios have remained closer to their long-run average values .
Potem ko je rast delniških tečajev euroobmočja v prvih štirih mesecih leta dosegla dvomestne vrednosti , so ti na začetku maja namreč začeli padati in v naslednjem mesecu padli za kakšnih 13 %, potem ko je na svetovnih delniških trgih zavladala nestabilnost .
by about 13 % over the next month in the wake of global stock market turmoil . Indicating turbulent market conditions , implied stock market volatility in the United States and the euro area increased significantly in May and June to levels not seen since 2003 and 2004 respectively ( see Chart 15 ) .
Implicitna volatilnost delniških trgov v ZDA in euroobmočju , ki kaže na turbulentne tržne razmere , je maja in junija precej zrasla , do ravni , kakršne ni bilo videti vse od leta 2003 in 2004 ( glej graf 15 ) .
In addition to the increase in perceived stock market uncertainty as indicated by implied volatility , market participants also appeared to have reduced their risk appetite during the period of market turbulence .
Poleg večje zaznane negotovosti glede delniških trgov , na katero je kazala njihova implicitna volatilnost , se zdi , da se je v obdobju njihove turbulentnosti zmanjšala tudi želja tržnih udeležencev po tveganju .
In the absence of significant deteriorations in fundamentals , changes in investors » risk appetite and risk perceptions therefore seem to be the most likely explanation for the temporary drop in stock prices seen in the second quarter of 2006 .
Tudi industrijski sektor je bil precej nad skupnim indeksom , podprt zlasti z boljšo poslovno klimo v euroobmočju . V nasprotju z gibanji v letu 2005 pa je bil sektor nafte in plina v letu 2006 pod skupnim indeksom , k čemur so morda prispevala gibanja cen nafte .
This view is consistent with the fact that the sharp corrections in euro area stock prices occurred despite upward revisions of analysts » earnings expectations in the second quarter of 2006 .
Tudi zdravstveni sektor , v katerem so dobički običajno manj odvisni od faze gospodarskega cikla , je bil v letu 2006 slabši .
In the second half of the year , implied stock market ECB Annual Report 2006
Na začetku leta 2007 so svetovni delniški tečaji še rasli s tempom , primerljivim s tistim iz druge polovice leta 2006 .
volatility fell back to historically low levels and investors » appetite for risk seemed to recover . The resulting decline in equity premia , together with a persistent outlook for solid growth in corporate earnings , seemed to support the strong rebound in euro area stock prices over the second half of 2006 .
februarja 2007 , ko je prišlo do ostrega padca delniških tečajev na Kitajskem , čemur so sledili tečaji po vsem svetu . Indeksa Dow Jones EURO STOXX in Standard and Poor 's 500 sta tako v nekaj dneh padla za okrog 5 % vsak .
Turning to a sectoral breakdown , the utilities sector was the best-performing sector in 2006 , with a stock price increase of more than 30 %. This strong performance was probably due to intensive M & A activity in the light of consolidation in the euro area utilities sector .
Oster padec delniških tečajev je izničil poraste v prvih osmih tednih leta , tako da sta bila do 2 . marca 2007 oba indeksa nekoliko pod ravnjo , zabeleženo konec leta 2006 .
Supported by the improved business sentiment in the euro area , the industrial sector also outperformed the overall index significantly .
Še več , do začetka marca je poskočila implicitna volatilnost na vseh večjih delniških trgih , kar je verjetno znak precejšnjih popravkov tveganj , povezanih z delniškimi trgi .
Contrary to the developments in 2005 , the oil and gas sector underperformed the overall index in 2006 .
ŠE NAPREJ MOČNA RAST FINANCIRANJA GOSPODINJSTEV V letu 2006 je zadolževanje gospodinjstev ostalo močno , podprto z ugodnimi pogoji financiranja , živahno dinamiko stanovanjskih trgov in večjim zaupanjem potrošnikov .
The developments in oil prices might have contributed to the comparatively weak performance of this sector .
Rast povpraševanja gospodinjstev po posojilih MFI je v prvih mesecih leta rasla in z letno stopnjo 9,8% višek dosegla spomladi , nakar se je postopoma umirjala in decembra na letni ravni znašala 8,2% .
The health sector , where earnings are usually less dependent on the position in the business cycle , also underperformed in 2006 .
Zadnji razpoložljivi podatki iz četrtletnih finančnih računov euroobmočja , ki se nanašajo na tretje četrtletje 2006 , kažejo , da je letna stopnja rasti zadolženosti gospodinjstev pri nedenarnih finančnih institucijah , ki vključujejo DFP ter zavarovalnice in pokojninske sklade , v letu 2006 ostala relativno stabilna okrog ravni 8 %.
In early 2007 global stock prices initially continued to increase at a pace comparable to that recorded over the second half of 2006 .
Če posojila , ki so jih MFI odobrile gospodinjstvom , razčlenimo po namenu , vidimo , da ECB Letno poročilo 2006
The upward trend in stock prices halted on 27 February 2007 when stock prices , triggered by a sharp fall in Chinese equity prices , declined significantly across the globe . The Dow Jones EURO STOXX and the Standard and Poor 's 500 indices both fell by about 5 % in a few days .
Vir : Thomson Financial Datastream 1 ) Implicitna volatilnost za euroobmočje je izmerjena z indeksom VSTOXX , ki se nanaša na indeks Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 , implicitna nestanovitnost za ZDA pa z indeksom VIX , ki se nanaša na indeks Standard & Poor 's 500 . Oba indeksa odražata pričakovani standardni odklon odstotnih sprememb ustreznih delniških indeksov v obdobju 30 dni .
The sharp declines in stock prices wiped out the increases in the first eight weeks of the year and , by 2 March 2007 , both stock market indices stood at slightly lower levels than at the end of 2006 .
da je prav ta sprememba želje investitorjev po tveganju in njihove zaznave tveganj najbolj verjetna razlaga za prehoden padec delniških tečajev , ki smo mu bili priča v drugem četrtletju leta 2006 . Ta razlaga je skladna z mnenjem , da je do velikih popravkov delniških tečajev v euroobmočju prišlo kljub temu , da so analitiki v drugem četrtletju leta 2006 navzgor popravili svoja pričakovanja glede dobičkov .
Moreover , by early March , implied volatility surged on all major stock markets , probably signalling a significant reassessment of stock market risks .
V drugi polovici leta je implicitna volatilnost delniških trgov ponovno padla na zgodovinsko nizko raven , pri investitorjih pa se je spet obudila želja po tveganju . Zdi se , da je posledično zmanjšanje premije za tveganje , skupaj z vztrajnimi izgledi za solidno rast podjetniških dobičkov , podpiralo močno oživitev delniških tečajev euroobmočja v drugi polovici leta 2006 .
CONTINUED STRONG HOUSEHOLD FINANCING Household borrowing remained strong in 2006 , underpinned by favourable financing conditions , strong housing market dynamics and improved consumer confidence .
Če pogledamo razčlenitev po sektorjih , vidimo , da je bil najuspešnejši sektor v letu 2006 sektor javnih gospodarskih služb , v katerem so delniški tečaji zrasli za več kot 30 %.
Households » demand for
Ta močna rast je bila verjetno posledica intenzivnih združitev in prevzemov v luči konsolidacije
Chart 16 MFI loans to households ( annual percentage changes ) total lending for house purchase consumer credit other lending 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 Source : ECB .
G r a f 16 Po s o j i l a M F I go s p o d i n j s t v o m ( medletne spremembe v odstotkih ) skupaj stanovanjska posojila potrošniški krediti druga posojila 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 1999 Vir : ECB . 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2
MFI loans accelerated in the first months of the year , peaking at an annual rate of 9.8% in the spring , and then gradually moderated to stand at an annual rate of 8.2% in December .
V drugi polovici leta se je nekoliko upočasnila in decembra znašala 7,8% . Rezultati ankete o bančnih posojilih Eurosistema kažejo , da je povpraševanje po potrošniških kreditih spodbujalo predvsem večje zaupanje potrošnikov in njihovi večji izdatki za trajne potrošne dobrine , čeprav je slednji dejavnik do konca leta postal manj pomemben .
The latest available data from the euro area quarterly financial accounts , which are available until the third quarter of 2006 , indicate that the annual growth rate of the debt of the household sector owed to non-monetary financial institutions ( non-MFIs ) , comprising OFIs and insurance corporations and pension funds , remained fairly stable in 2006 , hovering around 8 % during the year .
ZADOLŽENOST GOSPODINJSTEV JE ŠE NAPREJ NARAŠČALA Skladno z visoko dinamiko zadolževanja se je tudi rast koeficienta , ki izraža razmerje med dolgovi gospodinjstev in razpoložljivim dohodkom , nadaljevala v letu 2006 ( glej graf 18 ) . Ne glede na to pa je zadolženost gospodinjstev v euroobmočju ostala pod ravnjo , značilno za številne industrijsko razvite države , zlasti ZDA , Združeno kraljestvo in Japonsko .
Looking at the breakdown of MFI loans to households by purpose , the strength of household borrowing continued to be explained mainly by the robust demand for loans for house purchase ( see Chart 16 ) .
lahko moč zadolževanja gospodinjstev še vedno pojasnimo pretežno z robustnim povpraševanjem po stanovanjskih posojilih ( glej graf 16 ) .
The ongoing strength of mortgage borrowing was facilitated by the low level of interest rates across the euro area and buoyant housing market developments in many regions which created high financing requirements ( see Section 2.3 of this chapter ) .
Še naprej močno rast hipotekarnih posojil so omogočale nizke obrestne mere v vsem euroobmočju in živahno gibanje stanovanjskih trgov v številnih regijah , ki je povzročilo veliko povpraševanje po financiranju ( glej razdelek 2.3 tega poglavja ) .
Furthermore , the results of the Eurosystem 's bank lending survey indicate that the continued strong growth in loans for house purchase was also related to an easing of credit standards that banks applied in the approval of loans . Banks reported competition from other banks and non -
Pregled bančnih posojil Eurosistema kaže , da je bila še naprej močna rast stanovanjskih posojil povezana tudi z nižjimi bonitetami , ki so jih banke uporabljale pri odobravanju posojil . Banke so te nižje bonitete pojasnjevale predvsem s konkurenco s strani drugih bank in nebančnih institucij ter manjšim zaznanim tveganjem v zvezi s pričakovano splošno ekonomsko aktivnostjo .
C h a r t 1 7 I n t e re s t r a t e s f o r l e n d i n g t o households and non-financial corporations ( percentages per annum ;
G r a f 17 O b r e s t n e m e r e z a p o s o j i l a go s p o d i n j s t v o m i n n e f i n a n č n i m d r u ž b a m ( odstotki na leto ;
excluding charges ;
brez stroškov ;
rates on new business ;
obrestne mere za nove posle ;
weight-adjusted ) short-term rates for lending to non-financial corporations long-term rates for lending to non-financial corporations rates for loans to households for house purchase rates for loans to households for consumer credit 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2003 2004 2005 2006 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 shorter period of initial rate fixation rose more strongly than those on loans with a longer period of initial rate fixation .
tehtano ) kratkoročne obrestne mere za posojila nefinančnim družbam dolgoročne obrestne mere za posojila nefinančnim družbam obrestne mere za stanovanjska posojila gospodinjstvom obrestne mere za potrošniške kredite gospodinjstvom 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2003 2004 2005 2006 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
In addition , credit standards applied to the approval of consumer credit were eased significantly in 2006 , implying that loan supply conditions improved during the year . HOUSEHOLD INDEBTEDNESS ROSE FURTHER Reflecting the continued strong borrowing dynamics , the ratio of household debt to disposable income increased further in 2006 ( see Chart 18 ) .
G r a f 18 Z a d o l ž i t e v i n b r e m e s e r v i s i r a n j a d o l go v go s p o d i n j s t e v ( kot odstotek razpoložljivega dohodka )
However , the level of household indebtedness in the euro area remained below that seen in the other main industrialised countries , notably the United States , the United Kingdom and Japan . The household sector debt servicing burden ( the ratio of interest payments plus principal repayments to disposable income ) increased somewhat in 2006 , owing to the still vigorous loan growth and the modest rise in bank lending rates .
plačila obresti ( lestvica na desni strani ) odplačila glavnice ( lestvica na desni strani ) razmerje med zadolženostjo in dohodkom ( lestvica na levi strani ) 100 90 80 6 70 60 50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 12 10 8
The continued rise in households » indebtedness has increased their exposure to changes in interest rates , income and asset prices . When assessing these aggregate figures , it should be noted that they represent averages for the ECB Annual Report 2006
4 2 0 Vir : ECB .
Source : ECB . Notes : For the period from December 2003 onwards , the weight-adjusted MFI interest rates are calculated using country weights constructed from a 12-month moving average of new business volumes .
Opomba : Za obdobje od decembra 2003 so tehtane obrestne mere MFI izračunane z uporabo uteži za države , izračunanih iz 12 mesečnega drsečega povprečja obsega novih poslov . Za prejšnje obdobje , tj .
For the preceding period , from January to November 2003 , the weight-adjusted MFI interest rates are calculated using country weights constructed from the average of new business volumes in 2003 .
od januarja do novembra 2003 , so tehtane obrestne mere MFI izračunane z uporabo uteži za države , izračunanih iz povprečnega obsega novih poslov v letu 2003 .
For more information , see Box 3 in the August 2004 issue of the ECB 's Monthly Bulletin .
Več informacij je v okviru 3 , Monthly bulletin ECB , avgust 2004 .
banks and a perception of lower risks in terms of expectations regarding general economic activity as the main factors behind the easing of credit standards .
Vir : ECB .
The changes in credit standards were mostly implemented by reducing margins on average loans and by lengthening maturities . In the spring of 2006 the annual growth rate of MFI loans to households for house purchase started to moderate slightly from rates of more than 12 %, to stand at 9.5% in December .
Opomba : Podatki za leto 2006 so ocene . Neprekinjena rast zadolženosti gospodinjstev je povečala njihovo občutljivost za spremembe obrestnih mer , dohodka in cen premoženja .
This development was in line with the increase in mortgage lending rates over the course of the year from the very low levels seen in previous years ( see Chart 17 ) , in the context of rises in key ECB interest rates and market rates .
Pri ocenjevanju takšnih agregatnih podatkov je treba upoštevati , da so to povprečja za konsolidirani sektor gospodinjstev ter da se zato izrazito razlikujejo tako po državah euroobmočja kot po gospodinjstvih .
The lending rates on new housing loans were between 50 and 120 basis points higher in December 2006 than at the end of November 2005 before the ECB started to raise key interest rates in December 2005 . Rates on loans with a
Tako bi na primer dobili višjo zadolženost in breme servisiranja dolga , če bi analizo omejili na tista gospodinjstva , ki dejansko imajo neporavnano hipotekarno posojilo .