natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
However , all central banks face a large degree of uncertainty -- this is certainly not unique to the ECB -- and so a successful monetary policy must therefore be broadly based , taking into account all the relevant information and not relying on a single model of the economy .
Vendar se vse centralne banke -- ECB ni izjema -- soočajo z veliko mero negotovosti , zaradi česar mora biti uspešna denarna politika široko zasnovana in upoštevati vse ustrezne informacije , ne da bi se zanašala na en sam ekonomski model .
See ECB ( 2004 ) , The monetary policy of the ECB , p. 51 .
Odlomek iz ECB ( 2004 ) , The Monetary Policy of the ECB , str .
B ox 1 0 W hy m a i n t a i n a l ow p o s i t i ve r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n ?
Okvir 10 Zakaj ohranjati nizko pozitivno stopnjo inflacije ?
Avoiding deflation is important because it entails similar costs to the economy as inflation .
Izogibanje deflaciji je pomembno , ker ta gospodarstvu prinaša podobne stroške kot inflacija .
Furthermore , once deflation occurs it may become entrenched as nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero .
Poleg tega obstaja nevarnost , da deflacija , ko se enkrat pojavi , tudi ostane , ker nominalne obrestne mere pač ne morejo pasti pod nič .
-* Maintaining a low positive rate of inflation reduces the probability that nominal interest rates will approach their lower boundary at zero .
-* Ohranjanje nizke pozitivne stopnje inflacije zmanjšuje verjetnost , da bi se nominalne obrestne mere približale svoji spodnji meji nič .
If nominal interest rates hit zero , there is likely to be increased uncertainty about the effectiveness of monetary policy .
Če se namreč spustijo na raven nič , se lahko okrepi negotovost glede učinkovitosti denarne politike .
And if this event were to coincide with a strong decline in demand , such a situation could complicate the central bank 's ability to restore price stability by using its interest rate instrument .
Če to sovpade še z močnim upadom povpraševanja , ima lahko centralna banka težave pri ponovnem vzpostavljanju cenovne stabilnosti z uporabo instrumenta obrestnih mer .
Examples of this are rare and even if it were to occur , a number of effective monetary policy actions are still possible at zero nominal interest rates .
Takšni primeri so redki , pa tudi , če do njih pride , je na razpolago veliko učinkovitih ukrepov denarne politike .
Various plausible solutions for escaping from a liquidity trap have been proposed .
Za izogibanje likvidnostni pasti je bilo predlaganih več različnih sprejemljivih rešitev .
Despite this , prevention is better than cure and a safety margin for inflation rates above zero helps to avoid the need to test the effectiveness of these alternative policies in practice .
Kljub temu je preventiva boljša od kurative , varnostna rezerva v obliki stopnje inflacije nad nič pa pripomore , da učinkovitosti teh alternativnih politik in praks ni treba dejansko preizkusiti .
In order to calibrate the safety margin for inflation rates , the ECB took account of studies which have tried to assess the likelihood of nominal interest rates hitting the zero lower boundary for various levels of inflation objective .
Da bi lahko ECB natančno določila to varnostno rezervo , je upoštevala raziskave , ki se ukvarjajo z verjetnostjo , da nominalne obrestne mere padejo na spodnjo mejo nič pri različnih ciljnih stopnjah inflacije .
Results in this area differ to some extent , as they depend on a number of specific assumptions .
Rezultati na tem področju se do določene mere razlikujejo , ker so odvisni od številnih posebnih predpostavk .
But the available studies indicate that the likelihood decreases dramatically when the central bank aims at an inflation rate above 1 %.
Vendar pa razpoložljive raziskave vseeno kažejo , da se ta verjetnost drastično zmanjša , če centralna banka cilja na inflacijsko stopnjo , večjo od 1 %.
-* The second reason for aiming at low positive inflation is that inflation statistics may be subject to a positive measurement error .
-* Drugi razlog za ciljno usmerjenost na nizko pozitivno inflacijo je , da so statistični podatki o inflaciji lahko predmet pozitivne napake pri merjenju .
This error would imply that zero inflation means de facto a declining price level .
Takšna napaka bi pomenila , da je nična stopnja inflacije dejansko že identična s padajočo ravnjo cen .
In the specific case of the HICP , the precise estimation of such a measurement bias continues to be surrounded by uncertainty .
V primeru HICP natančno oceno takšne pristranskosti pri merjenju še vedno spremlja negotovost .
But taking into account the continuous improvements implemented by Eurostat in the index , the bias is likely to be small and to decline further in the future .
Glede na stalne izboljšave indeksa , ki jih uvaja Eurostat , pa je verjetno , da je pristranskost majhna in da bo v prihodnje še manjša .
-* The third reason for aiming at low positive inflation is linked to the possible presence of sustained inflation differentials within the euro area .
-* Tretji razlog za ciljno usmerjenost na nizko pozitivno inflacijo je povezan z možno prisotnostjo vztrajnih inflacijskih razlik znotraj euroobmočja .
In principle , inflation differentials across the regions are a normal feature of any monetary union .
Načeloma so inflacijske razlike med regijami običajen pojav v vsaki denarni uniji .
They are an integral part of the adjustment mechanism resulting from divergent economic developments across regions forming the area in which monetary union has been established .
So sestavni del mehanizma prilagajanja , ki izhaja iz različnega gospodarskega razvoja regij v denarni uniji .
However , the single monetary policy can only influence the price level of the area as a whole ; it cannot address inflation differentials , in the same way that monetary policy in a single country cannot reduce inflation differentials across regions or cities .
Toda enotna denarna politika lahko vpliva le na raven cen območja kot celote , ne more pa vplivati na inflacijske razlike , tako kot denarna politika posamezne države ne more zmanjšati inflacijskih razlik med regijami ali mesti .
Inflation differentials due to transitory factors are of little economic concern .
Inflacijske razlike , ki so posledica prehodnih dejavnikov , so z ekonomskega vidika nepomembne .
Of greater concern are the structural inflation differentials resulting from incomplete real convergence between regions , for example , initial differences in income levels and an ongoing catch-up process in standards of living .
Večjo skrb zbujajo strukturne inflacijske razlike , ki izhajajo iz nepopolne realne konvergence med regijami , na primer začetne razlike v dohodku in stalni proces dohitevanja na področju življenjskega standarda .
Their emergence could potentially create economic problems in countries or regions with below-average inflation , particularly if downward nominal rigidities impede the necessary adjustment of relative prices and thus hamper the efficient allocation of resources . 82
Njihov pojav bi lahko povzročil gospodarske probleme v državah ali regijah s podpovprečno inflacijo , še posebno , če nominalna togost navzdol preprečuje potrebno prilagoditev relativnih cen in s tem ovira učinkovito razporejanje virov .
( c o n t « d ) It has been argued that the ECB 's monetary policy should target a medium-term inflation rate for the euro area that is high enough to prevent regions with structurally lower inflation rates from having to meet the costs of possible downward nominal rigidities or entering periods of protracted deflation .
Utemeljeno je bilo , da mora denarna politika ECB ciljati na srednjeročno inflacijsko stopnjo euroobmočja , ki je dovolj visoka , da prepreči , da bi regije s strukturno nižjimi inflacijskimi stopnjami morale nositi stroške morebitne nominalne togosti navzdol ali se znašle v daljšem obdobju deflacije .
Available studies agree that a rate of inflation below but close to 2 % for the euro area provides a sufficient margin in this respect .
Razpoložljive raziskave potrjujejo , da inflacija pod dvema odstotkoma , vendar blizu te meje , v tem pogledu zagotavlja zadostno rezervo .
T h e t wo - p i l l a r a p p ro a c h o f t h e E C B « s m o n e t a r y p o l i c y s t r a t e g y The Governing Council of the ECB agreed on the main elements of its monetary policy strategy in October 1998 .
Dvostebrni pristop strategije denarne politike ECB Svet ECB je oktobra 1998 dosegel soglasje glede glavnih elementov strategije denarne politike .
The strategy was confirmed and further clarified in May 2003 after an extensive review of all relevant aspects .
Strategija je bila potrjena in dodatno pojasnjena maja 2003 , po temeljitem pregledu vseh pomembnih vidikov .
In addition to the definition of price stability , the ECB uses two analytical perspectives ( referred to as the two « pillars ") as the basis for its approach to organising , evaluating and cross-checking the information relevant for assessing the risks to price stability : -* The first perspective is aimed at assessing the short to medium-term determinants of price developments , with a focus on real activity and financial conditions in the economy ( economic analysis ) .
Poleg opredelitve cenovne stabilnosti ECB uporablja dve analitični perspektivi ( dva „stebra ") , ki sta podlaga njenemu pristopu k pripravi , oceni in navzkrižni primerjavi podatkov , pomembnih pri ocenjevanju tveganj za cenovno stabilnost . -* Prva perspektiva se osredotoča na oceno kratkoročnih do srednjeročnih determinant gibanja cen , s poudarkom na aktivnosti realnega sektorja in finančnih pogojih v gospodarstvu ( ekonomska analiza ) .
-* The second perspective ( monetary analysis ) mainly serves as a means to cross-check , from a medium to long-term perspective , the indications from the economic analysis .
-* Druga perspektiva ( denarna analiza ) je namenjena predvsem temu , da se s srednjeročne do dolgoročne perspektive preverijo ugotovitve ekonomske analize .
The two-pillar approach ( see Box 11 ) ensures that appropriate attention is paid to different perspectives to be able to make an overall judgement of the risks to price stability .
Dvostebrni pristop ( glej okvir 11 ) zagotavlja , da se različne perspektive primerno upoštevajo , kar omogoča celovito oceno tveganj za cenovno stabilnost .
The diversified approach to the interpretation of economic conditions reduces the risk of policy error caused by over-reliance on a single indicator , forecast or model .
Diverzificiran pristop k razlagi gospodarskih razmer zmanjšuje tveganje napačnih odločitev politik , do katerih lahko pride zaradi prevelikega zanašanja na en sam kazalec , napoved ali model .
C h a r t 2 T h e s t a b i l i t y - o r i e n t e d m o n e t a r y p o l i c y s t r at eg y o f t h e E C B
Slika 2 Stabilnostna usmeritev strategije denarne politike ECB TEMELJNI CILJ : CENOVNA STABILNOST Svet ECB sprejema sklepe o denarni politiki , ki temeljijo na celoviti oceni tveganja za cenovno stabilnost EKONOMSKA ANALIZA DENARNA ANALIZA
Source : ECB ( 2004 ) , The monetary policy of the ECB , p. 66 .
Vir : ECB ( 2004 ) , The Monetary Policy of the ECB , str . 66 .
B ox 1 1 T h e t wo p i l l a r s o f t h e E C B « s m o n e t a r y p o l i c y s t r a t e g y The two pillars of the ECB 's monetary policy strategy are economic analysis and monetary analysis .
Okvir 11 Dva stebra strategije denarne politike ECB Dva stebra strategije denarne politike ECB sta ekonomska analiza in denarna analiza .
Economic analysis The economic analysis focuses on the assessment of current economic and financial developments and the implied short to medium-term risks to price stability .
Ekonomska analiza Ekonomska analiza se osredotoča na ocenjevanje tekočih gospodarskih in finančnih gibanj ter s tem povezanih kratkoročnih in srednjeročnih tveganj za cenovno stabilnost .
It analyses all factors which are helpful in assessing the dynamics of real activity and the likely development of prices in terms of the interplay between supply and demand in the goods , services and labour markets .
Analizira vse dejavnike , ki pomagajo pri oceni dinamike aktivnosti realnega sektorja gospodarstva ter verjetnega gibanja cen z vidika součinkovanja ponudbe in povpraševanja na trgih blaga , storitev in dela .
The economic analysis also pays due attention to the need to identify the nature of shocks hitting the economy , their effects on cost and pricing behaviour and the short to medium-term prospects for their propagation .
Ekonomska analiza upošteva tudi nujnost prepoznavanja narave gospodarskih šokov , njihovega vpliva na gibanje stroškov in oblikovanje cen , kot tudi kratkoročne do srednjeročne nevarnosti njihove širitve .
To take appropriate decisions , the Governing Council needs to have a comprehensive understanding of the prevailing economic situation and be aware of the specific nature and magnitude of economic disturbances which threaten price stability .
Da bi lahko Svet ECB sprejemal primerne odločitve , mora imeti vsestranski pregled nad prevladujočimi gospodarskimi razmerami ter poznati specifično naravo in obseg vseh gospodarskih motenj , ki ogrožajo cenovno stabilnost .
The ECB regularly reviews developments in overall output , demand and labour market conditions , a broad range of price and cost indicators , fiscal policy , and the balance of payments for the euro area .
ECB redno spremlja gibanje skupnega proizvoda , povpraševanje in razmere na trgu dela , širok nabor cenovnih in stroškovnih kazalnikov , fiskalno politiko ter plačilno bilanco euroobmočja .
Developments in financial market indicators and asset prices are also closely monitored .
Pozorno spremlja tudi gibanja kazalnikov finančnih trgov in cen premoženja .
Movements in asset prices may affect price developments via income and wealth effects .
Spremembe v cenah premoženja lahko vplivajo na gibanje cen prek učinkov dohodka in premoženja .
For example , as equity prices rise , share-owning households become wealthier and may choose to spend more on consumption .
Če se na primer delniški tečaji povišajo , postanejo gospodinjstva , ki imajo v lasti delnice , bogatejša , in se lahko odločijo , da bodo več trošila .
This adds to consumer demand and may fuel domestic inflationary pressures .
S tem se poveča zasebno povpraševanje , kar lahko okrepi domače inflacijske pritiske .
Conversely , should equity prices fall , households may reduce consumption .
In obratno , če se torej delniški tečaji znižajo , lahko gospodinjstva zmanjšajo svoje trošenje .
Asset prices and financial yields can also be used to derive information about expectations in the financial markets , including expected future price developments .
Z analizo cen premoženja in finančnih donosov lahko dobimo tudi informacije o pričakovanjih finančnih trgov , vključno s pričakovanji glede prihodnjih gibanj cen .
For example , when buying and selling bonds , financial market participants implicitly express expectations about future developments in interest rates and prices .
Tako na primer udeleženci na finančnem trgu z nakupom in prodajo obveznic prikrito izražajo pričakovanja glede prihodnjih gibanj obrestnih mer in cen .
Using a variety of techniques , the ECB can analyse financial prices to extract the markets » implicit expectations for future developments .
ECB lahko z uporabo različnih tehnik analizira cene na finančnem trgu , da bi izluščila prikrita pričakovanja glede prihodnjih gibanj .
Developments in the exchange rate are also carefully assessed for their implications for price stability .
Prav tako so skrbno ocenjena gibanja deviznih tečajev in njihove posledice za cenovno stabilnost .
Exchange rate movements have a direct effect on price developments through their impact on import prices .
Tečajna gibanja se prek vpliva na uvozne cene neposredno prenašajo na gibanje cen .
Changes in the exchange rate may also alter the price competitiveness of domestically produced goods on international markets , thereby influencing demand conditions and potentially the outlook for prices .
Spremembe deviznih tečajev lahko spremenijo tudi cenovno konkurenčnost , ki jo ima doma proizvedeno blago na mednarodnih trgih , s čimer vplivajo na pogoje povpraševanja in morda tudi na pričakovana gibanja cen v prihodnosti .
If such exchange rate effects alter the expectations and behaviour of wage and price-setters , the potential for second-round effects may exist .
Če takšni učinki deviznega tečaja spremenijo pričakovanja in vedenje oblikovalcev plač in cen , lahko pride do sekundarnih učinkov .
The Eurosystem 's staff macroeconomic projections , which are prepared twice a year by the staff of the ECB and the NCBs , play an important role in the economic analysis .
Makroekonomske projekcije Eurosistema , ki jih dvakrat na leto pripravijo strokovnjaki ECB in nacionalnih centralnih bank , imajo pomembno vlogo pri ekonomski analizi .
The Governing Council evaluates them together with many other pieces of information and forms of analysis organised within the two-pillar framework ; but it does not assume responsibility for the projections .
Svet ECB jih ovrednoti skupaj s številnimi drugimi informacijami in analizami , ki so del dvostebrnega okvira , vendar zanje ne prevzema odgovornosti .
The published projections are the result of a scenario based on a set of technical assumptions , including the assumption of unchanged shortterm interest rates .
Objavljene projekcije so rezultat scenarija , ki temelji na vrsti tehničnih predpostavk , vključno s predpostavko glede gibanja kratkoročnih obrestnih mer .
In view of this , the projections represent a scenario that is unlikely to materialise since monetary policy will always act to address any threats to price stability . 84
Zaradi tega je malo verjetno , da bi se ta scenarij uresničil v praksi , saj se denarna politika vedno odziva na nevarnosti , ki prežijo na cenovno stabilnost .
B ox 1 1 The two pillars of the ECB 's monetar y policy strategy ( cont' d ) Therefore , the macroeconomic projections of inflation prepared by Eurosystem staff should under no circumstances be seen as questioning the commitment of the Governing Council to maintaining price stability over the medium term .
Okvir 11 Dva stebra strategije denarne politike ECB Zato makroekonomskih projekcij inflacije , ki jih pripravlja Eurosistem , v nobenem primeru ne bi smeli razumeti v smislu , da postavljajo pod vprašaj zavezanost Sveta ECB k ohranjanju cenovne stabilnosti v srednjeročnem obdobju .
Wage and price-setters , as well as firms and households , should rely on the ECB 's quantitative definition of price stability as the « best prediction » of medium-term price developments .
Oblikovalci plač in cen , kot tudi podjetja in gospodinjstva , morajo verjeti , da je cenovna stabilnost , kot jo je številčno opredelila ECB , „najboljša napoved » srednjeročnih gibanj .
Monetary analysis The ECB 's monetary analysis relies on the fact that monetary growth and inflation are closely related in the medium to long run .
Denarna analiza Denarna analiza ECB sloni na dejstvu , da sta rast količine denarja in inflacija na srednji do dolgi rok tesno povezani .
Assigning money a prominent role therefore underpins the medium-term orientation of the ECB 's monetary policy strategy .
Izstopajoča vloga , ki je pripisana količini denarja , poudarja srednjeročno usmerjenost strategije denarne politike ECB .
Indeed , by taking policy decisions not only on the basis of the short to medium-term indications stemming from the economic analysis , but also on the basis of money and liquidity considerations , the ECB is able to see beyond the transient impact of the various shocks and avoids any temptation to take an overly activist course .
Dejansko lahko pogled ECB seže onkraj prehodnih učinkov različnih šokov ter se upre skušnjavi pretiranega ukrepanja , ker sprejema odločitve politik ne samo na podlagi kratkoročnih do srednjeročnih kazalcev , ki izhajajo iz ekonomske analize , pač pa tudi na podlagi presoje količine denarja in likvidnosti .
To signal its commitment to monetary analysis and provide a benchmark for the assessment of monetary developments , the ECB has announced a reference value for the growth of the broad monetary aggregate M3 .
Kot znak svoje zavezanosti denarni analizi , pa tudi , da bi ponudila merilo za ocenjevanje gibanj denarja , je ECB objavila referenčno vrednost rasti širokega denarnega agregata M3 .
This reference value refers to the rate of M3 growth that is deemed to be compatible with price stability over the medium term .
Ta referenčna vrednost pomeni takšno stopnjo rasti M3 , ki velja za združljivo s stabilnostjo cen v srednjeročnem obdobju .
In December 1998 the Governing Council set this reference value at 4 ½% per annum and confirmed it in subsequent reviews .
Svet ECB je decembra 1998 to referenčno vrednost določil na ravni 4 ½% na leto in jo potrdil v poznejših presojah .
The reference value is based on the definition of price stability and on the medium term assumptions of potential real GDP growth of 2-2 ½% and a decline in the velocity of circulation of money of between ½% and 1 %.
Referenčna vrednost temelji na opredelitvi cenovne stabilnosti ter na srednjeročnih predpostavkah o potencialni rasti realnega BDP v višini 2-2 ½% in zmanjšanju hitrosti kroženja denarja med ½% in 1 % na leto .
The reference value is not a monetary target but a benchmark for analysing the information content of monetary developments in the euro area .
Referenčna vrednost ni denarni cilj , pač pa merilo , ki se uporablja pri analizi informacij , ki jih je mogoče izluščiti iz gibanj denarja v euroobmočju .
Owing to the medium to long-term nature of the monetary perspective , there is no direct link between shortterm monetary developments and monetary policy decisions . Monetary policy does not therefore react in a mechanical way to deviations of M3 growth from the reference value .
Zaradi srednjeročne do dolgoročne narave denarne perspektive ni neposredne povezave med kratkoročnimi gibanji denarja in sklepi o denarni politiki , zato se denarna politika na odstopanja rasti M3 od referenčne vrednosti ne odziva mehanično .
The ECB 's monetary analysis is not limited to the assessment of M3 growth in relation to its reference value .
Denarna analiza ECB ni omejena na presojo rasti M3 glede na referenčno vrednost .
Many other monetary and financial variables are closely analysed on a regular basis .
Številne druge denarne in finančne spremenljivke se redno podrobno analizirajo .
For example , developments in the components of M3 ( e.g. cash in circulation , time deposits ) are studied because they can offer an insight into the overall changes in M3 .
Tako se na primer gibanja komponent M3 ( na primer gotovine v obtoku in vezanih vlog ) preučujejo zato , ker dajejo vpogled v to , kako se spreminja M3 kot celota .
In this respect , narrower aggregates such as M1 may contain some information about real activity .
V tem smislu lahko ožji agregati ( na primer M1 ) vsebujejo nekatere informacije o aktivnosti realnega sektorja .
Similarly , changes in credit extended to the private sector can be informative about financial conditions and , through the monetary financial institutions ( MFI ) balance sheet , can provide additional information about money .
Podobno lahko spremembe v obsegu kreditov zasebnemu sektorju dajejo informacije o finančnih razmerah ter prek bilance stanja monetarnih finančnih institucij ( MFI ) dodatne informacije o denarju .
Such analysis helps to provide both a better insight into the behaviour of M3 in relation to the reference value and a broad picture of the liquidity conditions in the economy and their consequences in terms of risks to price stability . 85
Takšna analiza daje boljši vpogled v gibanje M3 glede na referenčno vrednost in daje širšo sliko likvidnostnih razmer v gospodarstvu ter ugotavlja posledice za cenovno stabilnost .