natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
This was mostly linked to an improved economic outlook for the euro area since the beginning of the year , the appreciation of the euro exchange rate relative to the US dollar , and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the United States and the euro area at the short end of the yield curve over the course of the year . Towards the end of 2006 the annual flow in the net external asset position of MFIs turned strongly positive and appeared to have exerted an upward impact on annual M3 growth in the last two months of the year .
Razpoložljivi kazalniki likvidnostne situacije so še naprej rasli ( glej graf 9 ) . Tako nominalna denarna vrzel , ki je opredeljena kot razlika med dejansko ravnjo M3 in ravnjo M3 , ki bi izhajala iz stalne rasti tega agregata po referenčni stopnji 4,5% vse od decembra 1998 dalje , kot tudi realna denarna vrzel , ki korigira nominalno denarno vrzel za presežno likvidnost , ki so jo absorbirala pretekla cenovna gibanja ( tj .
The strong rise in capital inflows into the euro area towards the end of 2006 may have partly reflected the prevailing expectations of a strengthening of the euro exchange rate .
skupna odstopanja inflacijskih stopenj od definicije cenovne stabilnosti ECB ) , sta v letu 2006 še naprej izrazito rasli .
LIQUIDITY REMAINED AMPLE The continued strong growth of M3 over the course of 2006 added to the already ample stock of liquidity in the euro area .
Konec leta sta obe merili dosegli najvišje vrednosti vse od začetka tretje faze EMU in nista kazali znakov umirjanja .
Available indicators of the liquidity situation continued to rise ( see Chart 9 ) . Both the nominal money gap , which is defined as the difference between the actual level of M3 and the level of M3 that would have resulted from constant M3 growth at its reference value of 4 ½% since December 1998 , and the real money gap , which corrects the nominal money gap for the excess liquidity that has been absorbed by past price developments ( i.e. the cumulated deviation of inflation rates from the ECB 's definition of price stability ) , rose markedly further in 2006 .
ECB redno objavlja tudi podatke o denarni vrzeli , izračunani na podlagi prilagojene časovne vrste M3 , s čimer skuša upoštevati tudi ocenjene učinke prerazporeditev portfeljev v denarna sredstva , do katerih je prišlo v obdobju od leta 2001 do leta 2003 zaradi povečane gospodarske in finančne negotovosti 3 . Ker ni kazalo , da bi se inverzija preteklih prerazporeditev portfeljev nadaljevala tudi po prehodni oživitvi v četrtem četrtletju 2005 , sta se ti prilagojeni merili tudi v letu 2006 še naprej gibali vzporedno z ustreznima denarnima vrzelma na podlagi uradne časovne serije M3 .
At the end of the year both measures stood at their highest levels C h a r t 9 E s t i m a t e s o f t h e m o n ey g a p 1 ) ( as a percentage of the relevant measure of the stock of M3 ;
Ne glede na negotovost v zvezi s posameznimi ocenami pa slika , ki jo na splošno slikajo ti kazalniki , kaže na nadaljnje akumuliranje likvidnosti v letu 2006 , kar nekako potrjuje mnenje , da je likvidnost obsežna . G r a f 9 O c e n e d e n a r n e v r z e l i 1 ) ( kot odstotek ustreznega merila obsega M3 ;
adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects ;
desezonirano in koledarsko prilagojeno ;
December 1998 = 0 ) nominal money gap based on official M3 real money gap based on official M3 nominal money gap based on M3 corrected for the estimated impact of portfolio shifts 2 ) real money gap based on M3 corrected for the estimated impact of portfolio shifts 2 ) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 Source : ECB .
december 1998 = 0 ) nominalna denarna vrzel na podlagi uradne serije M3 realna denarna vrzel na podlagi uradne serije M3 nominalna denarna vrzel na podlagi serije M3 , popravljene za ocenjeni učinek prerazporeditev portfeljev 2 ) realna denarna vrzel na podlagi serije M3 , popravljene za ocenjeni učinek prerazporeditev portfeljev 2 ) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Vir : ECB .
1 ) The nominal money gap is defined as the difference between the actual level of M3 and the level of M3 that would have resulted from constant M3 growth at its reference value of 4 ½% since December 1998 .
1 ) Nominalna denarna vrzel je opredeljena kot razlika med dejansko ravnijo M3 in ravnijo M3 , ki bi izhajala iz stalne rasti tega agregata po referenčni stopnji 4,5% vse od decembra 1998 dalje .
The real money gap is defined as the difference between the actual level of M3 deflated by the HICP and the deflated level of M3 that would have resulted from constant nominal M3 growth at its reference value of 4 ½% and HICP inflation in line with the ECB 's definition of price stability , taking December 1998 as the base period . It should be noted that the levels of the money gap measures are very sensitive to the choice of the base period , which always remains to some extent arbitrary .
Realna denarna vrzel je opredeljena kot razlika med dejansko ravnijo M3 , deflacionirano s HICP in deflacionirano ravnijo M3 , ki bi izhajala iz stalne nominalne rasti M3 v skladu z njeno referenčno vrednostjo 4,5% in inflacije po HICP v skladu z opredelitvijo stabilnosti cen ECB , pri čemer se kot bazno obdobje upošteva december 1998 .
2 ) Estimates of the magnitude of portfolio shifts into M3 are constructed using the approach described in the article entitled « Monetary analysis in real time » in the October 2004 issue of the ECB 's Monthly Bulletin . 34
2 ) Ocene obsega prerazporeditev portfeljev v M3 so izračunane po postopku , opisanem v članku z naslovom „Monetary analysis in real time » , Monthly bulletin ECB , oktober 2004 .
ECB Annual Report 2006 observed since the start of Stage Three of EMU and did not show any clear signs of levelling off .
OBRESTNE MERE DENARNEGA TRGA SO SE POVEČALE PO ZVIŠANJU KLJUČNIH OBRESTNIH MER ECB Tekom leta 2006 so obrestne mere v celotnem razponu ročnosti zrasle , v skladu z zvišanji ključnih obrestnih mer ECB , do katerih je prihajalo med letom .
The ECB has also regularly published money gaps constructed on the basis of an adjusted M3 series , which attempts to correct for the estimated impact of portfolio shifts into monetary assets triggered by the heightened economic and financial uncertainty seen between 2001 and 2003 .
Gladko gibanje obrestnih mer denarnega trga , skupaj z njihovo na splošno nizko ravnjo volatilnosti , kaže na to , da so udeleženci trga dobro predvideli ukrepe denarne politike , kar je odraz preglednosti in predvidljivosti sklepov ECB o denarni politiki .
3 As there was no sign of a further unwinding of past portfolio shifts following the temporary resumption in the fourth quarter of 2005 , these adjusted measures continued to move in parallel with the corresponding money gaps based on the official M3 series also in 2006 .
Potem ko je Svet ECB dve leti in pol držal ključne obrestne mere ECB na zgodovinsko nizki ravni , jih je decembra 2005 zvišal za 3 Glej članek z naslovom „Monetary analysis in real time » , Monthly bulletin ECB , oktober 2004 .
Nevertheless , the money gap measures derived from the corrected series remained significantly lower than those based on the official M3 series .
ECB Letno poročilo 2006 G r a f 10 O b r e s t n e m e r e i n n a k l o n k r i v u l j e d o n o s n o s t i d e n a r n e ga t r ga v e u r o o b m o č j u ( odstotki na leto ;
When assessing these indicators of the liquidity situation , it should be kept in mind that they are only estimates and thus inevitably imperfect and should , therefore , be treated with caution .
odstotne točke ;
Notwithstanding the uncertainty surrounding individual estimates , the overall picture painted by these indicators points to further accumulation of liquidity in 2006 , tending to confirm the view that liquidity is ample .
dnevni podatki ) 1 mesečni EURIBOR ( lestvica na levi strani ) 12 mesečni EURIBOR ( lestvica na levi strani ) razpon med 12 mesečnim in 1 mesečnim EURIBOR ( lestvica na desni strani ) 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0
MONEY MARKET RATES INCREASED , FOLLOWING THE RISES IN KEY ECB INTEREST RATES During 2006 money market rates rose across the entire maturity spectrum , in line with the increases in key ECB interest rates which took place during the year .
Graf 11 Obrestne mere terminskih pogodb na 3 mesečni EURIBOR in implicitna volatilnost , ki jo izražajo opcije na terminske pogodbe ( odstotki na leto ; bazne točke ;
The smooth evolution of money market interest rates , together with their generally low level of volatility , suggests that monetary policy actions were well anticipated by market participants , reflecting the transparency and predictability of the ECB 's policy decisions .
dnevni podatki ) terminske pogodbe na 3 mesečni EURIBOR z zapadlostjo junija 2007 ( lestvica na levi strani ) implicitna volatilnost , ki jo izražajo opcije na terminske pogodbe na 3 mesečni EURIBOR z zapadlostjo junija 2007 ( lestvica na desni strani ) 4,5
After two and a half years of maintaining key ECB interest rates at historically low levels , in December 2005 the Governing Council raised key interest rates by 25 basis points .
2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 Vira : Reuters in Bloomberg . 2007 1,5 25 20 15 10 5 0
During 2006 the Governing Council increased the key ECB interest rates in steps of 25 basis points on five further occasions .
Tekom leta 2006 jih je v korakih po 25 bazičnih točk nato zvišal še petkrat .
In line with these increases in key ECB interest rates , money market interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum rose steadily over the course of the year .
Skladno s temi zvišanji so tekom leta vztrajno rasle tudi obrestne mere denarnega trga v celotnem razponu ročnosti . Tako so 2 .
On 2 March 2007 the one and twelvemonth interest rates stood at 3.79% and 4.05% respectively , i.e. 139 and 119 basis points higher than in early January 2006 .
marca 2007 enomesečne in dvanajstmesečne obrestne mere znašale 3,79% in 4,05% , tj . 139 in 119 bazičnih točk več kot na začetku januarja 2006 .
Looking more closely at developments during the course of 2006 , money market rates at longer maturities rose until the beginning of November ( see Chart 10 ) .
Če bolj od blizu pogledamo gibanja tekom leta 2006 ugotovimo , da so obrestne mere denarnega trga za daljše zapadlosti rasle do začetka novembra ( glej graf 10 ) .
In November longer-term money market interest rates declined slightly , reflecting expectations of some deceleration in the Governing Council 's withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation .
Novembra so nekoliko padle , kar je bilo povezano s pričakovanji , da bo Svet ECB upočasnil omejevanje akomodativne denarne politike .
However , money market interest rates increased again in December , in particular after the last Governing Council meeting of 2006 , and broadly stabilised after the turn of the year .
Vendar pa so decembra ponovno zrasle , še zlasti po zadnji seji Sveta ECB v letu 2006 , po prelomu leta pa so se na splošno stabilizirale .
In contrast with these developments , shorter-term interest rates increased continually throughout the year , not showing any temporary reversal of this upward trend .
Kratkoročnejše obrestne mere so se obnašale v nasprotju s temi gibanji in nepretrgoma rasle vse leto , ne da bi se njihov navzgor usmerjeni trend za trenutek obrnil .
Between January and mid-May 2006 the slope of the money market yield curve , as measured by the difference between the twelve-month and one-month EURIBOR , steepened , to reach 71 basis points on 12 May .
Med januarjem in sredino maja 2006 je naklon krivulje donosnosti denarnega trga , merjen z razliko med dvanajstmesečnim in enomesečnim EURIBOR , postal strmejši in 12 .
The slope then flattened , stabilising at around 50 basis points over the period from July to October 2006 .
Med julijem in oktobrom 2006 je nato postal položnejši in se ustalil na ravni okrog 50 bazičnih točk .
A marked further flattening of the curve was also observed from the first week of November 2006 until the days preceding the Governing Council meeting on 7 December 2006 , as the twelvemonth rate temporarily declined .
Od prvega tedna v novembru 2006 do par dni pred sejo Sveta ECB na dan 7 . decembra 2006 je bilo opaziti , da postaja izrazito položnejši , skladno s prehodnim padcem dvanajstmesečne obrestne mere .
Following the 7 December Governing Council meeting , the slope of the money market yield curve steepened progressively and stabilised at around 45 basis points after the turn of the year , before declining to around 30 basis points at the beginning of March 2007 . 3 For more details , see the article entitled « Monetary analysis in real time » in the October 2004 issue of the ECB 's Monthly Bulletin .
Po seji Sveta ECB dne 7 . decembra je naklon krivulje donosnosti denarnega trga postopoma postajal strmejši in se po prelomu leta ustalil na ravni okrog 45 bazičnih točk , preden je na začetku marca 2007 padel na okrog 30 bazičnih točk .
daily data ) three-month EURIBOR futures maturing in June 2007 ( left-hand scale ) implied volatility derived from options on three-month EURIBOR futures maturing in June 2007 ( right-hand scale ) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
Obrestne mere , izhajajoče iz terminskih pogodb na trimesečni EURIBOR , na splošno kažejo podobno sliko .
The interest rates implied by three-month EURIBOR futures give a broadly similar picture . These rates increased steadily between January and November 2006 , with the only exception being the period between mid-May and the end of June 2006 ( see Chart 11 ) .
Te obresti so med januarjem in novembrom 2006 vztrajno rasle z izjemo obdobja med sredo maja in koncem junija ( glej graf 11 ) . Novembra so padle , vendar so ECB Letno poročilo 2006
In November 2006 these rates declined , but then rose again markedly in December . On 2 March 2007 the three-month futures interest rate for the June 2007 contract stood at 3.97% , i.e. 81 basis points higher than at the beginning of January 2006 .
marca 2007 trimesečna obrestna mera iz terminske pogodbe z zapadlostjo junija 2007 znašala 3,97% , tj . 81 bazičnih točk več kot na začetku januarja 2006 .
During 2006 the implied volatility derived from options on three-month EURIBOR futures was generally subdued .
Tekom leta 2006 je bila njihova implicitna volatilnost na podlagi opcij na terminske pogodbe na trimesečni EURIBOR na splošno neizrazita .
Implied volatility declined progressively between January and December , suggesting a high degree of predictability of the ECB 's monetary policy decisions to money market participants .
Med januarjem in decembrom se je postopoma zmanjševala , kar kaže na visoko stopnjo predvidljivosti sklepov ECB o denarni politiki za udeležence denarnega trga .
The only two exceptions were the slight rise in volatility seen in May and a broad stabilisation observed between the end of October and the beginning of December associated with the above-mentioned uncertainty surrounding future moves of key interest rates ahead of the December meeting of the ECB 's Governing Council .
Edini izjemi sta bili manjše povečanje volatilnosti v maju in splošna stabilizacija med koncem oktobra in začetkom decembra , povezana z zgoraj omenjeno negotovostjo glede prihodnjih gibanj ključnih obrestnih mer , ki je vladala pred decembrsko sejo Sveta ECB .
After this meeting , implied volatility declined steadily following a negative trend which was reversed only a few days prior to the March 2007 meeting of the Governing Council .
Po tej seji je implicitna volatilnost vztrajno padala in sledila negativnemu trendu , ki se je obrnil le nekaj dni pred sejo Sveta ECB marca 2007 .
EURO AREA LONG-TERM BOND YIELDS REBOUNDED IN 2006 In 2006 long-term bond yields in the euro area continued to rebound from the historically low levels seen in late 2005 .
DONOSI DOLGOROČNIH OBVEZNIC EUROOBMOČJA SO V LETU 2006 OŽIVELI V letu 2006 so donosi dolgoročnih obveznic v euroobmočju še naprej rasli , potem ko so konec leta 2005 dosegli zgodovinsko nizko raven .
Overall , euro area tenyear government bond yields increased by 70 basis points in 2006 towards 4.0% at the end of the year ( see Chart 12 ) .
Na splošno so donosi desetletnih državnih obveznic euroobmočja v letu 2006 zrasli za 70 bazičnih točk in proti koncu leta dosegli blizu 4,0% ( glej graf 12 ) .
This rebound in long-term interest rates seemed to mainly reflect increasing optimism by investors as regards the growth outlook for the euro area economy .
Zdi se , da je ta oživitev dolgoročnih obrestnih mer pretežno odražala rastoči optimizem investitorjev glede izgledov gospodarstva euroobmočja .
Supporting this view , the yield on index-linked government bonds maturing in 2015 -- a measure of long-term real interest rates -- picked up by 60 basis points between the end of 2005 and end-December 2006 .
To domnevo podpira tudi donos na inflacijo vezanih državnih obveznic z zapadlostjo leta 2015 -- ta je merilo dolgoročnih realnih obrestnih mer --, ki se je med koncem leta 2005 in koncem decembra 2006 povečal za 60 bazičnih točk .
By
Nasprotno pa so se desetletne izvedene inflacijske stopnje , ki merijo inflacijska pričakovanja tržnih udeležencev in s tem povezano premijo za tveganje , v tem obdobju le malo spremenile .
36 ECB Annual Report 2006
V prvi polovici leta 2006 so donosi dolgoročnih obveznic zelo zrasli na obeh straneh Atlantika .
C h a r t 1 2 L o n g - t e r m g ove r n m e n t b o n d y i e l d s 1 ) ( percentages per annum ;
Graf 12 Donosi dolgoročnih državnih obveznic 1 ) ( odstotki na leto ;
daily data ) euro area United States 6 6
dnevni podatki ) euroobmočje ZDA 6 6
Sources : Reuters , Bloomberg and Thomson Financial Datastream .
Viri : Reuters , Bloomberg in Thomson Financial Datastream .
1 ) Ten-year bonds or the closest available bond maturity .
1 ) 10 letne obveznice ali najbližja razpoložljiva zapadlost obveznic .
highly synchronised fashion on both sides of the Atlantic , was partly related to the international stock market turmoil that started in May and led global investors to turn temporarily to the relative safety of liquid fixed income products .
Padec donosov dolgoročnih obveznic , ki je sledil v tretjem četrtletju , ponovno skoraj istočasno na obeh straneh Atlantika , je bil delno povezan z nestabilnostjo delniških trgov , ki se je začela maja in pripravila globalne investitorje k temu , da so se začasno zatekli v relativno varnost likvidnih produktov s fiksnim donosom .
In addition , the strong increase in oil prices in the light of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might have affected the global outlook for growth .
Poleg tega je na svetovne izglede za rast verjetno vplival tudi velik porast cen nafte v luči geopolitičnih napetosti na Srednjem vzhodu .
At the same time , it is likely that emerging signs of a slowdown in the US economy , which were pushing US interest rates markedly down across the entire maturity spectrum , also affected euro area longterm bond yields to some extent through the usually strong international transmission of bond market shocks .
obveznic euroobmočja do določene mere , prek običajno močnega mednarodnega prenosa šokov po obvezniških trgih , vplivali tudi prvi znaki upočasnjevanja gospodarstva ZDA , ki so potiskali ameriške obrestne mere v vsem razponu ročnosti odločno navzdol .
Towards the end of 2006 euro area long-term bond yields rebounded amid favourable data releases on economic activity in the euro area .
Proti koncu leta 2006 so donosi dolgoročnih obveznic euroobmočja oživili , hkrati z objavo ugodnih podatkov o gospodarski aktivnosti v euroobmočju .
Despite the overall increase in euro area longterm bond yields , the euro area yield curve flattened in 2006 .
Navkljub splošnemu povečanju donosov dolgoročnih obveznic euroobmočja je krivulja donosnosti euroobmočja v letu 2006 postala bolj položna .
This is reflected in a corresponding decline of the « term spread » , measured by the difference between the yield on a ten-year government bond and the threemonth EURIBOR .
To se je odrazilo v ustreznem zmanjšanju „razlike zaradi ročnosti » , ki se meri kot razlika med donosom na desetletno državno obveznico in trimesečnim EURIBOR .
The euro area term spread declined by some 50 basis points in the course of 2006 and reached the relatively low level of about 30 basis points by the end of the year .
Ta razlika je tekom leta 2006 padla za kakšnih 50 bazičnih točk in do konca leta dosegla relativno nizko raven kakšnih 30 bazičnih točk .
The flattening of the euro area yield curve in 2006 proceeded in a gradual fashion along with the five consecutive increases in key ECB interest rates .
Izravnava krivulje donosnosti euroobmočja v letu 2006 je potekala postopoma , sočasno s petimi zaporednimi zvišanji ključnih obrestnih mer ECB .
Historically , a low -- and particularly a negative -- term spread ( an « inverted yield curve ") has often heralded a subsequent slowdown in economic activity or even a recession .
Zgodovinsko gledano je majhna -- in še zlasti negativna -- razlika zaradi ročnosti ( ali „inverzna krivulja donosnosti ") pogosto naznanjala skorajšnjo upočasnitev gospodarske aktivnosti ali celo recesijo .
However , the flattening of the euro area yield curve in 2006 has to be interpreted in the light of risk premia included in long-term bond yields . Bond market risk premia seem to have reached extraordinarily low levels over the last two years .
Vendar je treba izravnavanje krivulje donosnosti euroobmočja v letu 2006 tolmačiti v luči premije za tveganje , ki je vključena v donose dolgoročnih obveznic .
When taking into account the low levels of bond market risk premia , the term spread at end-2006 no longer appears to be very low .
Zdi se , da so premije za tveganje obvezniških trgov v zadnjih dveh letih dosegle izjemno nizko raven .
4 4 See the box entitled « The recent flattening of the euro area yield curve : what role was played by risk premia ?" in the December 2006 issue of the ECB 's Monthly Bulletin .
Če upoštevamo to njihovo zelo nizko raven , se razlika zaradi ročnosti konec leta 2006 nič več ne zdi zelo majhna .
contrast , ten-year break-even inflation rates , which measure market participants » inflation expectations and related risk premia , changed little overall in that period . In the first half of 2006 long-term bond yields rose sharply on both sides of the Atlantic .
4 Zdi se , da so v letu 2006 dolgoročna inflacijska pričakovanja tržnih udeležencev in z njimi povezane premije za tveganje , ki so se odražala v izvedenih inflacijskih stopnjah , ostala na splošno nespremenjena in stabilna na ravni nekoliko nad 2 % letno .
In both the euro area and the United States , bond yields with ten years » maturity increased by about 80 basis points between end-December 2005 and end-June 2006 . Apart from the usually strong international interest rate linkages , the upturn in euro area long-term interest rates also reflected market reactions to data releases on economic activity and business sentiment , which investors generally interpreted as pointing to improving euro area growth prospects .
Podatke o inflacijskih pričakovanjih in povezanih premijah za tveganje v določenih obdobjih lahko dobimo z razčlenitvijo desetletnih izvedenih inflacijskih stopenj na petletne izvedene inflacijske stopnje in petletne implicitne terminske inflacijske stopnje za pet let vnaprej , ki jih G r a f 13 P r o m p t n e i n t e r m i n s ke i z v e d e n e stopnje inflacije v euroobmočju ( odstotki na leto ;
Consistent with such an interpretation , the relatively strong rebound in nominal bond yields in the first half of 2006 was mainly driven by an increase in the real interest rate component . Towards the end of June , however , the general upward trend in US and euro area bond yields came to an end .
5 dnevno drseče povprečje dnevnih podatkov ) 5 letna terminska izvedena stopnja inflacije ćez 5 let 5 letna promptna izvedena stopnja inflacije 10 letna promptna izvedena stopnja inflacije 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,0 1,9 2004 2005 2006 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,0 1,9 2007
The subsequent drop in long-term bond yields in the third quarter , which again proceeded in a ECB Annual Report 2006
Viri : Reuters , Thomson Financial Datastream in izračuni ECB .