natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
The average rate of overall HICP inflation is expected to be around 0.3% in 2009 , rising to between 0.9% and 1.7% in 2010 and between 0.8% and 2.0% in 2011 .
Povprečna stopnja skupne inflacije po HIPC bo v letu 2009 predvidoma znašala približno 0,3% , v letu 2010 naj bi se povečala na 0,9% do 1,7% , v letu 2011 pa na 0,8% do 2,0% .
Box A TECHNICAL ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT INTEREST RATES , EXCHANGE RATES , COMMODITY PRICES AND FISCAL POLICIES The technical assumptions about interest rates and both energy and non-energy commodity prices are based on market expectations , with a cut-off date of 12 November 2009.1 The assumption about shortterm interest rates is of a purely technical nature .
Okvir A TEHNIČNE PREDPOSTAVKE O OBRESTNIH MERAH , DEVIZNIH TEČAJIH , CENAH PRIMARNIH SUROVIN IN FISKALNIH POLITIKAH Tehnične predpostavke o obrestnih merah za energente in primarne surovine brez energentov temeljijo na tržnih pričakovanjih , s presečnim datumom na dan 12 . novembra 2009.1 Predpostavka o kratkoročnih obrestnih merah je povsem tehnične narave .
The methodology gives an overall average level of short-term interest rates of 1.2% for 2009 and 2010 .
Metodologija kaže na skupno povprečno raven kratkoročnih obrestnih mer v višini 1,2% v letih 2009 in 2010 .
They are assumed to increase thereafter to 2.4% in 2011 .
Zatem se bodo leta 2011 predvidoma zvišale na 2,4% .
The market expectations for euro area ten-year nominal government bond yields imply an average level of 4.0% in 2009 , increasing slightly to 4.1% in 2010 and to 4.6% in 2011 .
Tržna pričakovanja glede nominalnih stopenj donosa 10letnih državnih obveznic euroobmočja kažejo na povprečno raven v višini 4,0% v letu 2009 , ki se bo v letu 2010 nekoliko povečala na 4,1% in v letu 2011 na 4,6% .
The baseline projection takes into account the recent improvements in financing conditions and assumes that , over the projection horizon , bank lending rate spreads vis-à-vis the above-mentioned interest rates will narrow somewhat .
Osnovne projekcije upoštevajo nedavno izboljšanje pogojev financiranja in vključujejo predpostavko , da se bo razpon bančnih obrestnih mer za posojila glede na zgornje obrestne mere v obdobju projekcij nekoliko zožil .
As regards commodities , on the basis of the path implied by futures markets in the two-week period ending on the cut-off date , oil prices per barrel are assumed to average USD 62.2 in 2009 , USD 81.4 in 2010 and USD 85.9 in 2011 .
V zvezi s primarnimi surovinami pa na podlagi gibanj na terminskih trgih v dvotedenskem obdobju , ki se je končalo na presečni dan , predpostavljamo , da bo povprečna cena nafte v letu 2009 znašala 62,2 USD za sod , v letu 2010 81,4 USD za sod in v letu 2011 85,9 USD za sod .
The prices of non-energy commodities in US dollars are estimated to have decreased significantly , by 22.3% , in 2009 and assumed to rise by 24.7% in 2010 , followed by a more modest increase of 4.0% in 2011 .
Cene drugih primarnih surovin razen energentov so se po ocenah občutno znižale , in sicer za 22,3% v letu 2009 , po predpostavkah pa se bodo v letu 2010 povečale za 24,7% , temu pa bo v letu 2011 sledilo skromno zvišanje za 4,0% .
Bilateral exchange rates are assumed to remain unchanged over the projection horizon at the average levels prevailing in the two-week period ending on the cut-off date .
Dvostranski devizni tečaji bodo po predpostavkah ostali v obdobju projekcij nespremenjeni na povprečni ravni , ki je prevladovala v 2-tedenskem obdobju s koncem na presečni datum .
This implies a EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.39 in 2009 and 1.49 in 2010 and 2011 , and an effective exchange rate of the euro that , on average , appreciates by 0.8% in 2009 and by a further 2.2% in 2010 .
To pomeni , da bo devizni tečaj med eurom in ameriškim dolarjem ( EUR / USD ) v letu 2009 na ravni 1,39 in v letih 2010 in 2011 na ravni 1,49 , efektivni tečaj eura pa bo v letu 2009 v povprečju višji za 0,8% in še za 2,2% v letu 2010 .
Fiscal policy assumptions are based on individual euro area countries » national budget plans as available on 20 November 2009 .
Predpostavke o fiskalnih politikah temeljijo na proračunskih načrtih posameznih držav članic euroobmočja , ki so bili objavljeni 20 . novembra 2009 .
More information on the procedures and techniques used is given in « A guide to Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projection exercises » , ECB , June 2001 , which is available on the ECB 's website .
Dodatne informacije o uporabljenih postopkih in tehnikah so na voljo v dokumentu A guide to Eurosistem staff macroeconomic projection exercises , ECB , junij 2001 , ki je dostopen na spletni strani ECB .
The method used , involving a correction for exceptional events , is documented in « New procedure for constructing Eurosystem and ECB staff projection ranges » , ECB , December 2009 , also available on the ECB 's website .
Uporabljena metoda , ki vključuje korekcije za izjemne primere , je utemeljena v dokumentu „New procedure for constructing Eurosystem and ECB staff projection ranges » , ECB , December 2009 , ki je dostopen tudi na spletni strani ECB .
ECB Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area December 2009
ECB Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area December 2009
THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT The global economic outlook continues to show signs of improvement , with the turning-point towards a recovery having emerged in the second quarter of 2009 .
MEDNARODNO OKOLJE Svetovni gospodarski obeti še naprej kažejo znake izboljšanja , do obrata v smeri okrevanja pa je prišlo v drugem četrtletju leta 2009 .
In the near term , the recovery is expected to be uneven , as it is being driven primarily by the impact of monetary and fiscal stimuli , the rebound in trade and the inventory cycle .
V bližnji prihodnosti bo okrevanje po pričakovanjih potekalo neenakomerno , saj ga poganjajo predvsem učinki denarnih in javnofinančnih spodbud , oživitve trgovine in cikla zalog .
While some of the factors have only a temporary impact , the gradual improvement in financing conditions is expected to provide more lasting support to the projected global recovery .
Medtem ko imajo nekateri dejavniki le začasen vpliv , se pričakuje , da bo postopno izboljševanje pogojev financiranja zagotovilo trajnejšo podporo predvidenemu svetovnemu okrevanju .
Overall , global economic growth is expected to remain below past trends over the whole projection horizon , as advanced economies in particular experience a subdued recovery , being persistently affected by the crisis .
Na splošno je pričakovati , da bo svetovna gospodarska rast v celotnem obdobju projekcij ostala pod preteklimi trendi , saj še posebej razvita gospodarstva zaradi vztrajnega vpliva krize okrevajo počasi .
World real GDP outside the euro area is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% on average in 2009 , but is assumed to grow by 3.5% in 2010 and 3.9% in 2011 .
Realni svetovni BDP zunaj euroobmočja se je po ocenah v letu 2009 v povprečju zmanjšal za 0,6% , vendar se bo v letu 2010 predvidoma povečal za 3,5% in v letu 2011 za 3,9% .
Growth in the euro area 's export markets is estimated to have fallen even more strongly in 2009 , by 12.2% , and is assumed to recover to 4.2% in 2010 and 4.7% in 2011 .
Rast izvoznih trgov euroobmočja se je po ocenah v letu 2009 zmanjšala še bolj , in sicer na - 12,2% , predvidoma pa se bo v letu 2010 okrepila na 4,2% in v letu 2011 na 4,7% .
REAL GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS Euro area real GDP growth returned to positive territory in the third quarter of 2009 , with real GDP rising for the first time since the first quarter of 2008 .
PROJEKCIJE RASTI REALNEGA BDP Rast realnega BDP v euroobmočju se je v tretjem četrtletju letos vrnila v pozitivno območje , saj se je realni BDP povečal prvič od prvega četrtletja lani .
Available evidence suggests that a number of factors may have boosted growth , such as fiscal stimulus packages , the inventory cycle and the acceleration of trade .
Razpoložljivi podatki kažejo , da bi rast lahko spodbudilo več dejavnikov , na primer paketi javnofinančnih spodbud , cikel zalog in pospešitev trgovine .
Once those partly temporary factors reverse , in early 2010 , GDP growth is expected to moderate again .
Ko se bodo ti deloma začasni dejavniki v začetku leta 2010 obrnili , se bo rast BDP predvidoma spet umirila .
Over the full projection horizon until 2011 , activity is projected to be gradually supported by exports and by stronger domestic demand .
V celotnem obdobju projekcij do leta 2011 bosta gospodarsko dejavnost po projekcijah postopoma podprla izvoz in močnejše domače povpraševanje .
The lagged effects of monetary policy actions and of the significant efforts to restore the functioning of the financial system support the recovery over the projection horizon .
Okrevanje v obdobju projekcij podpirajo zapozneli učinki ukrepov denarne politike in velikih prizadevanj za obnovitev delovanja finančnega sistema .
Growth is , however , expected to remain on a weaker path than before the recession , owing to the need for balance sheet repair in various sectors and the fact that consumption is dampened by weak labour market prospects .
Po pričakovanjih bo rast ostala šibkejša kot pred recesijo , ker morajo različni sektorji popraviti svoje bilance stanja in je potrošnja oslabljena zaradi slabih obetov na trgu dela .
In annual terms , after growing by 0.5% in 2008 , real GDP growth is projected to be between - 4.1% and - 3.9% in 2009 , picking up to between 0.1% and 1.5% in 2010 and between 0.2% and 2.2% in 2011 .
Potem ko se je rast realnega BDP leta 2008 na letni ravni povečala za 0,5% , se bo po projekcijah v letu 2009 gibala med 4,1% in - 3,9% , v letu 2010 se bo povzpela na 0,1% do 1,5% , v letu 2011 pa na 0,2% do 2,2% .
In more detail , among the domestic components of GDP , total investment is expected to decline until the beginning of 2011 , albeit at a diminishing pace .
Kot kaže podrobnejši pregled , se bodo med domačimi komponentami BDP skupne investicije do začetka leta 2011 predvidoma zmanjševale , vendar vse počasneje .
Non-residential private investment is assumed to be constrained by low capacity utilisation , weak demand , high uncertainty and subdued profits .
Zasebne nestanovanjske naložbe bodo po predvidevanjih omejene zaradi nizke izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti , šibkega povpraševanja , velike negotovosti in umirjenih dobičkov .
Residential investment is projected to be dampened by ongoing adjustments in housing markets in some countries .
Stanovanjske naložbe bodo po projekcijah oslabljene zaradi še vedno potekajočih prilagoditev na stanovanjskem trgu v nekaterih državah .
In line with the fiscal packages announced in several euro area countries , government investment in real terms is assumed to grow strongly in 2009 and 2010 , before declining the following year .
V skladu z javnofinančnimi paketi , ki so bili napovedani v več državah euroobmočja , se predpostavlja , da se bodo realne državne investicije v letih 2009 in 2010 močno povečale , naslednje leto pa naj bi se zmanjšale .
Private consumption growth is also expected to be subdued .
Zasebna potrošnja bo po pričakovanjih prav tako naraščala počasi .
Real labour income is projected to fall over most of the projection horizon , although real incomes are expected to be supported by moderate wage increases , low inflation and government transfers .
Realni dohodki od dela bodo po projekcijah upadali v skoraj celotnem obdobju projekcij , čeprav je pričakovati , da bodo realne dohodke podpirali zmerna rast plač , nizka inflacija in transferji države .
In addition , the rise in precautionary saving observed in the course of 2009 -- in a context of economic uncertainty , increasing unemployment and moderating house prices -- is projected to be unwound only to some extent over the projection horizon .
Poleg tega bo večje previdnostno varčevanje , zabeleženo v letu 2009 -- ob gospodarski negotovosti , vse večji brezposelnosti in umirjanju cen stanovanj -- v obdobju projekcij odpravljeno le do določene mere .
ECB Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area December 2009
ECB Makroekonomske projekcije strokovnjakov Eurosistema za euroobmočje December 2009
2 ) The reported figures include Slovakia already in 2008 , except with regard to the HICP , where they include Slovakia only from 2009 .
2 ) Podatki vključujejo Slovaško že v letu 2008 , razen v zvezi s HICP , kjer Slovaško vključujejo šele od leta 2009 .
Following sharp declines at the turn of the year , euro area exports started to rebound in mid-2009 .
Izvoz euroobmočja se je po močnem zmanjšanju ob prelomu leta začel sredi leta 2009 krepiti .
A gradual recovery in exports is projected , supported by foreign demand growth , although price competitiveness is expected to weigh somewhat on exports .
Napovedano je njegovo postopno okrevanje , ki ga bo podpirala rast tujega povpraševanja , čeprav je pričakovati , da bo cenovna konkurenčnost na izvoz vplivala nekoliko negativno .
Euro area imports have decreased markedly in the course of 2009 , but are projected to recover in the following two years as final demand picks up .
Uvoz euroobmočja se je v letu 2009 močno zmanjšal , vendar naj bi po projekcijah v prihodnjih dveh letih okreval , ko se bo začelo povečevati končno povpraševanje .
As the projected decline in exports is even stronger than that in imports for 2009 , net trade contributes significantly to the decline in GDP in 2009 .
Ker se bo po projekcijah v letu 2009 izvoz zmanjšal še bolj kot uvoz , neto menjava s tujino močno prispeva k zmanjševanju BDP v letu 2009 .
Slightly positive net trade contributions are expected from 2010 onwards .
Od leta 2010 bo prispevek neto trgovinske menjave po pričakovanjih rahlo pozitiven .
Reflecting the lagged adjustment to the sharp drop in output experienced until mid-2009 and the projected weakness in economic activity , total hours worked in the euro area are expected to decline until 2011 .
V skladu z zapoznelimi prilagoditvami strmemu upadu gospodarske rasti , zabeleženimi do sredine leta 2009 , in napovedano šibko gospodarsko aktivnostjo se bo skupno število opravljenih delovnih ur v euroobmočju do leta 2011 predvidoma zmanjševalo .
While the corresponding adjustment initially arises mostly through a reduction in hours per head , it is increasingly expected to weigh on the number of persons employed .
Medtem ko bo v začetku ta upad predvsem posledica zmanjševanja števila opravljenih ur na zaposlenega , se pričakuje , da bo kasneje k temu vse bolj prispevalo manjše število zaposlenih .
Labour demand is also projected to be dampened by downward wage rigidities in the context of the sharp downturn in activity .
Povpraševanje po delovni sili bo po projekcijah prav tako zavirala togost plač navzdol , ki je značilna za obdobja strmega upada gospodarske aktivnosti .
Reflecting the fall in employment , the unemployment rate is expected to increase over the projection horizon .
V skladu z zmanjševanjem zaposlenosti se bo stopnja brezposelnosti v obdobju projekcij predvidoma povečala .
The crisis is expected to dampen potential growth over the projection horizon .
Pričakovati je , da bo kriza v obdobju projekcij zavirala potencialno rast .
The fall in potential growth reflects the inevitable rise in structural unemployment , lower participation rates and the strong decline in investment , which will weigh on the capital stock .
Upad potencialne rasti odraža neizogiben porast strukturne brezposelnosti , nižji delež aktivnega prebivalstva in velik upad naložb , kar bo negativno vplivalo na stanje osnovnih sredstev .
The magnitude of these effects , however , is very uncertain and projections of potential growth , and accordingly of the output gap , are surrounded by an even higher degree of uncertainty than usual .
Obseg teh učinkov pa je zelo negotov in projekcije potencialne rasti ter njej skladne proizvodne vrzeli so negotove še celo bolj kot navadno .
This notwithstanding , the estimated output gap is expected to remain significantly negative over the projection horizon .
Ne glede na to je pričakovati , da bo ocenjena proizvodna vrzel v obdobju projekcij ostala občutno negativna .
PRICE AND COST PROJECTIONS After reaching a low of - 0.4% in the third quarter of 2009 , annual HICP inflation is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter of 2009 . This pattern is mostly due to strong base effects arising from past falls in commodity prices .
PROJEKCIJE CEN IN STROŠKOV Medletna inflacija po HICP , ki je v tretjem četrtletju 2009 padla na - 0,4% , se bo v četrtem četrtletju 2009 predvidoma vrnila v pozitivno območje .
Thereafter , inflation is expected to remain moderate , being dampened by the slack prevailing in the euro area .
Takšno gibanje je predvsem rezultat močnih baznih učinkov , ki izvirajo iz padca cen primarnih surovin v preteklosti .
The average annual inflation rate is estimated to be around 0.3% in 2009 , and is projected to rise to between 0.9% and 1.7% in 2010 , and between 0.8% and 2.0% in 2011 .
Zatem bo inflacija predvidoma ostala umirjena , saj jo bo zaviral precejšen obseg neizkoriščenih zmogljivosti , ki obstajajo v euroobmočju .
The annual rate of change in the HICP excluding energy is expected to follow a downward pattern until 2010 , reflecting the weakness of aggregate demand , and to remain at moderate levels in 2011 . In more detail , the decline in external price pressures observed during 2009 is expected to reverse in the near future , reflecting mainly the assumed path of commodity prices but also a pick-up in competitors » prices .
Povprečna medletna stopnja inflacije bo v letu 2009 po ocenah znašala približno 0,3% in naj bi se v letu 2010 po projekcijah povečala na 0,9% do 1,7% , v letu 2011 pa na 0,8% do 2,0% . Medletna stopnja rasti indeksa HICP brez energentov se bo zaradi slabitve skupnega povpraševanja do leta 2010 predvidoma zmanjševala , v letu 2011 pa bo ostala zmerna .
Turning to domestic price pressures , wage pressures have fallen markedly in the course of 2009 , in 2 See the box entitled « Potential output estimates for the euro area » in the July 2009 issue of the Monthly Bulletin .
2 Glej okvir z naslovom „Potential output estimates for the euro area » , Monthly Bulletin , julij 2009 .
view of the deterioration of the labour market and the fall in inflation .
Kar zadeva domače cenovne pritiske , so se pritiski na rast plač v letu 2009 močno zmanjšali , k čemur je prispevalo poslabševanje pogojev na trgu dela in zniževanje inflacije .
Looking ahead , wage growth is projected to remain moderate .
V prihodnjem obdobju bo rast plač po projekcijah ostala zmerna .
However , annual unit labour cost growth has risen sharply in 2009 , largely owing to the decline in productivity and to the fact that wages have reacted only slowly to the fall in economic activity .
Kljub temu se je medletna rast stroškov dela na enoto proizvoda v letu 2009 močno povečala , k čemur sta največ prispevala padec produktivnosti in dejstvo , da so se plače le počasi odzvale na upad gospodarske aktivnosti .
Looking ahead , given that productivity should rebound with the cyclical improvement , unit labour costs are projected to decline in 2010 and to rebound only moderately in 2011 .
Ker bi v skladu s cikličnim izboljšanjem produktivnost morala doživeti odboj , se bodo stroški dela na enoto proizvoda v letu 2010 predvidoma zmanjšali , v letu 2011 pa naj bi se le zmerno povečali .
While profit margins have largely absorbed the sharp increase in unit labour costs in 2009 , they are expected to grow again later in the projection period as companies try to recover part of the earlier decline when activity gradually picks up .
Medtem ko je v letu 2009 strmo povečanje stroškov dela na enoto proizvoda večinoma absorbirala stopnja dobičkonosnosti , se pričakuje , da se bo kasneje v obdobju projekcij ta spet povečala , saj bodo podjetja skušala nadoknaditi del preteklega upada , ko se bo aktivnost postopno okrepila .
COMPARISON WITH THE SEPTEMBER 2009 PROJECTIONS With regard to real GDP growth , the projection range for 2009 has been slightly narrowed compared with that published in the September 2009 issue of the Monthly Bulletin . The range for 2010 has been revised upwards .
PRIMERJAVA S PROJEKCIJAMI IZ SEPTEMBRA 2009 Napovedani razpon rasti realnega BDP za leto 2009 se je v primerjavi z napovedjo iz letošnje septembrske izdaje Mesečnega biltena nekoliko zožil , razpon za leto 2010 pa je bil popravljen navzgor .
This reflects , in part , the carry-over from revisions for the end of 2009 .
To deloma odraža prenos iz popravkov za konec leta 2009 .
With regard to HICP inflation , the figure for 2009 is within the range published in September 2009 , while the range for 2010 is now somewhat higher .
Na področju inflacije po HICP so podatki za leto 2009 v okviru razpona , objavljenega septembra 2009 , medtem ko je razpon za leto 2010 zdaj nekoliko višji .
Table 2 Comparison with the September 2009 projections ( average annual percentage changes )
Tabela 2 Primerjava s septembrskimi projekcijami ( povprečne medletne spremembe v odstotkih )
Real GDP -- September 2009 Real GDP -- December 2009 HICP -- September 2009 HICP -- December 2009
Realni BDP -- september 2009 Realni BDP -- december 2009 HICP -- september 2009 HICP -- december 2009
In the forecasts currently available from other institutions , euro area real GDP is expected to fall by between 3.8% and 4.2% in 2009 .
Trenutno dosegljive napovedi drugih institucij predvidevajo , da se bo realna rast BDP v euroobmočju v letu 2009 skrčila za 3,8% do 4,2% .
GDP growth is expected thereafter to be positive , ranging between 0.3% and 1.2% in 2010 and between 1.3% and 1.7% in 2011 .
Zatem bo rast BDP po pričakovanjih pozitivna in naj bi se v letu 2010 se gibala med 0,3% in 1,2% , v letu 2011 pa med 1,3% in 1,7% .
All these forecasts are broadly in line with the ranges of the Eurosystem staff projections .
Vse te napovedi so na splošno skladne z razponi projekcij strokovnjakov Eurosistema .
As regards inflation , available forecasts from other institutions anticipate average annual HICP inflation to be between 0.2% and 0.3% in 2009 , between 0.8% and 1.2% in 2010 , and between 0.7% and 1.6% in 2011 .
Kar zadeva inflacijo , dosegljive napovedi drugih institucij predvidevajo , da se bo povprečna medletna inflacija po HICP v letu 2009 gibala med 0,2% in 0,3% , v letu 2010 med 0,8% in 1,2% in v letu 2011 med 0,7% in 1,6% .
These forecasts for inflation are broadly in line with the ranges of the Eurosystem staff projections .
Te napovedi za inflacijo so na splošno skladne z razponi projekcij strokovnjakov Eurosistema .
Date of release IMF Survey of Professional Forecasters European Commission Consensus Economics Forecasts OECD Eurosystem staff projections October 2009 October 2009 November 2009 November 2009
Datum objave MDS Survey of Professional Forecasters Evropska komisija Consensus Economics Forecasts OECD Makroekonomske projekcije strokovnjakov Eurosistema oktober 2009 oktober 2009 november 2009 november 2009 november 2009
GDP growth 2009 2010 2011 - 4.2 0.3 1.3 - 3.9 - 4.0 - 3.8 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5
2009 - 4,2 - 3,9 - 4,0 - 3,8 - 4,0 Rast BDP 2010 0,3 1,0 0,7 1,2 0,9
HICP inflation 2009 2010 2011 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5
Inflacija po HICP 2009 2010 2011 0,3 0,8 0,8 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,2 1,2 1,1 1,1 0,9 1,6 1,5 1,5 0,7
Sources : European Commission Economic Forecasts , Autumn 2009 ;
Viri : European Commission Economic Forecasts ( jesen 2009 ) ;
IMF World Economic Outlook , October 2009 ;
MDS World Economic Outlook ( oktober 2009 ) ;
OECD preliminary Economic Outlook , November 2009 ;
OECD preliminary Economic Outlook ( november 2009 ) ;
Note : The Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections and the OECD forecasts both report working day-adjusted annual growth rates , whereas the European Commission and the IMF report annual growth rates that are not adjusted for the number of working days per annum .
Opomba : makroekonomske projekcije strokovnjakov Eurosistema in napovedi OECD navajajo medletne stopnje rasti , ki so prilagojene za število delovnih dni , medtem ko Evropska komisija in MDS objavljata medletne stopnje rasti , ki niso prilagojene za število delovnih dni v letu .