natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Ciudad de la Luz (CDL) — Approach for the calculation of an appropriate cost of capital in capital budgeting decisions — July 2009
Ciudad de la Luz (CDL) – Način izračuna ustreznih stroškov kapitala v odločitvah o naložbah – Julij 2009
The objective of this report is to establish whether the investment in the project creating the company Ciudad De la Luz (CDL) can be qualified as State aid.
Namen tega poročila je ugotoviti, ali se lahko naložbe v projekt ustanovitve družbe Ciudad De la Luz (CDL) štejejo za državno pomoč.
A private equity investor [1] would have been willing to invest in the CDL project if the expected internal rate of return [2] was higher than or equal to the opportunity cost of equity capital [3] (i.e. the return that he could have obtained in a similar project).In the analysis which follows, we calibrate the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to obtain the cost of equity capital.
Vlagatelj zasebnega kapitala [1] bi bil pripravljen vlagati v projekt Ciudad de la Luz (CDL), če bi bila pričakovana notranja stopnja donosa [2] višja ali enaka oportunitetnim stroškom lastniškega kapitala [3] (tj. donosu, ki bi ga lahko dosegel v podobnem projektu).V analizi v nadaljevanju kalibriramo model določanja cen dolgoročnih naložb, da dobimo stroške lastniškega kapitala.
This is the relevant measure that determines whether a private investor would have undertaken the CDL project.
To je ustrezno merilo, ki določa, ali bi zasebni vlagatelj vlagal v projekt CDL.
The resulting parameter range is then compared to the ex-post performance of a representative sample of CDL’s competitors.
Dobljeni razpon parametrov se nato primerja z naknadnim rezultatom reprezentativnega vzorca konkurentov CDL.
This is the approach adopted by LECG in its submission, namely to use ex-post performance to establish a benchmark for the opportunity cost of capital for this type of projects.
To je pristop, ki ga je zavzel LECG v svojem sporočilu, in sicer uporabiti naknadne rezultate za določitev merila za oportunitetne stroške kapitala za tovrstne projekte.
As will be seen below, the measure of ex-post performance chosen by LECG is not the correct one to establish a benchmark.
Kot je navedeno v nadaljevanju, merilo naknadne uspešnosti, ki ga je izbrala LECG, ni pravilno za določitev merila.
More importantly, any ex-post performance metric is an imperfect proxy for ex-ante required returns.
Merjenje naknadne uspešnosti je tudi nepopoln približek za predvidene zahtevane donose.
We find that the opportunity cost of capital for this project should be around 14,91 %.
Ugotavljamo, da bi morali znašati oportunitetni stroški kapitala za ta projekt okoli 14,91 %.
Hence, a private investor would require an internal rate of return of more than 14,91 %.
Zasebni vlagatelj bi torej zahteval notranjo stopnjo donosa več kot 14,91 %.
According to the business plan proposed by CDL in 2004 (which is the most recent financial information on which the present project is based), the internal rate of return for the investment in CDL was 5,74 % [4].
Skladno s poslovnim načrtom, ki je ga predložil CDL leta 2004 (ki je najnovejša finančna informacija, na kateri temelji sedanji projekt), je bila notranja stopnja donosa za naložbe v CDL 5,74 % [4].
Consequently, a private investor would not have invested in the CDL project since its internal rate of return is lower than the opportunity cost of capital.
Zato zasebni vlagatelj ne bi vlagal v projekt CDL, saj je njegova notranja stopnja donosa nižja od oportunitetnih stroškov kapitala.
The Cost of Equity Capital [5]
Stroški lastniškega kapitala [5]
The cost of equity capital is the minimum required rate of return CDL must offer to its shareholders to compensate them for:
Stroški lastniškega kapitala so minimalna zahtevana stopnja donosa, ki jo mora CDL zagotavljati svojim delničarjem, da odtehta:
the time value of money;
časovno vrednost denarja,
the risk associated with investing in CDL.
tveganja, povezana z vlaganjem v CDL.
It is important to stress that the relevant rate of return is an expected future return, not a historical return.
Treba je poudariti, da je ustrezna stopnja donosa pričakovani prihodnji donos in ne pretekli donos.
In what follows, we apply a widely accepted method of estimating the cost of equity capital, namely the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):
V nadaljevanju smo uporabili splošno priznani model ocenjevanja stroškov lastniškega kapitala, in sicer model določanja cen dolgoročnih naložb (CAPM):
Where:
kjer:
Ke the cost of equity capital, expressed in %;
Ke so stroški lastniškega kapitala, izraženi v %,
Rf is the risk-free rate, expressed in %;
Rf je netvegana stopnja donosa, izražena v %,
(Rm – Rf) is the market risk premium, expressed in %;
(Rm – Rf) je premija za tržno tveganje, izražena v %,
β is the ‘Beta’, a measure of the systematic (non-diversifiable) risk associated with CDL’s stock, which reflects both the business and financial risk.
ß je „beta“, merilo sistematičnega tveganja (tveganje, ki ga ni mogoče izločiti), povezanega z delnicami CDL, ki kaže poslovno in tudi finančno tveganje.
For the risk-free rate, market practice suggests taking the long-term (typically 10-year) government bond rate in the country of operations.
Skladno s tržno prakso se netvegana stopnja donosa meri z donosnostjo dolgoročnih (po navadi 10-letnih) državnih obveznic v državi poslovanja.
It is common market practice to take the difference between the historical return on a diversified equity index in the country of operations, and the risk-free rate.
Običajna tržna praksa je, da se šteje razlika med preteklimi donosi razpršenega lastniškega kapitala v državi poslovanja in netvegano stopnjo donosa.
Application to Ciudad De La Luz
Uporaba v primeru Ciudad De La Luz
According to Fernández (2004) [7], the historical market risk premium over government bonds in Spain (during the period 1991-2003, which corresponds approximately to the period prior to our investment) is between 6,8 % and 9,3 % (the difference lies in the method to calculate the average — arithmetic versus geometric).
Fernández (2004) [7] pravi, da je pretekla premija za tržno tveganje za državne obveznice v Španiji (v obdobju med letoma 1991 in 2003, ki približno ustreza obdobju pred našo naložbo) znašala od 6,8 % do 9,3 % (razlika je v metodi izračuna povprečja – aritmetičnega oziroma geometričnega).
We consider the lower bound of this interval for our estimation of the market risk premium.Rm
Pri oceni premije za tržno tveganje štejemo najnižjo vrednost tega intervala.Rm
Finally, for the estimate of beta, we use publicly available information pertaining to companies that have been identified as direct competitors to CDL by the Spanish authorities.
Za oceno količnika beta smo uporabili javno razpoložljive podatke podjetij, za katere so španski organi ugotovili, da so neposredni konkurenti CDL.
In 2001, KBC Securities provided a report containing the necessary information to calculate the net present value of a 10-year investment in the Carrere Group.
Leta 2001 je družba KBC Securities pripravila poročilo, ki vsebuje potrebne podatke za izračun neto sedanje vrednosti 10-letne naložbe v Carrere Group.
Note that both the date and the investment’s maturity roughly coincide with the case at hand.
Datum in zapadlost naložbe približno ustrezata obravnavanemu primeru.
The discount rate used in the KBC report was 12 %, while the reported beta stood at 1,8.
Diskontna stopnja, uporabljena v poročilu družbe KBC, je znašala 12 %, količnik beta v poročilu pa 1,8.
Taking into account that the financial risk profile of Carrere is different from that of CDL (Carrere’s capital structure includes debt), we have to adjust this beta and compute the unlevered beta in order to isolate the business risk profile.
Ob upoštevanju, da se profil finančnega tveganja skupine Carrere razlikuje od profila CDL (kapitalska struktura Carrere vsebuje dolg), moramo ta količnik beta prilagoditi in izračunati beto nezadolženega podjetja, da tako dobimo profil tveganja podjetja.
The formula to obtain the unlevered beta is given by:
Formula za izračun bete nezadolženega podjetja je:
where T is the applicable tax rate.
pri čemer je T veljavna davčna stopnja.
The tax rate for France, where Carrere is established, is around 33 %, and the debt to equity ratio data can be found in the original KBC report.
Davčna stopnja v Franciji, kjer je sedež družbe Carrere, je okoli 33 %, podatki o razmerju med dolžniškim in lastniškim kapitalom pa so v izvirnem poročilu KBC.
Using these parameter values, we obtain the following value for the unlevered beta:
Z uporabo teh vrednosti parametrov dobimo naslednjo vrednost bete nezadolženega podjetja:
That report assumed a cost of equity of 12 %, and a beta of 1,5.
Navedeno poročilo je predpostavljalo stroške lastniškega kapitala v višini 12 % in vrednost beta 1,5.
At the time the report was published, Studio Babelsberg was a debt-free company, meaning that its capital structure was identical to CDL’s; hence there is no need to adjust the beta in this case.
V času objave poročila je bila Studio Babelsberg nezadolžena družba, kar pomeni, da je bila njena kapitalska struktura popolnoma enaka strukturi CDL, zato v tem primeru bete ni treba prilagoditi.
This direct evidence obtained from detailed reports pertaining to two direct competitors indicates that the beta applicable to CDL is (at least) in the 1,5-1,68 range.
Ta neposredni dokaz iz podrobnih poročil o dveh neposrednih konkurentih kaže, da je beta, ki se uporablja za CDL (vsaj) v razponu od 1,5 do 1,68.
In addition, the investment in CDL is likely to involve a higher degree of idiosyncratic risk for the reasons already expounded by the Commission.
Poleg tega bo zaradi razlogov, ki jih je Komisija že razložila, v naložbah v CDL verjetno več idiosinkratičnega tveganja.
In other words, CDL’s beta is probably higher than that of its competitors.
Količnik beta bo torej v primeru CDL večji kot pri konkurentih.
In what follows, we take the arithmetic average between these two figures and assign it to CDL (despite the fact that the idiosyncratic risk associated with CDL is probably higher).
V nadaljevanju smo za CDL izračunali aritmetično povprečje med tema dvema vrednostma (čeprav je verjetno idiosinkratično tveganje v primeru CDL večje).
It should be noted that these figures were provided by financial analysts who carried an in-depth analysis of Carrere and Studio Babelsberg.
Treba je omeniti, da so te podatke zagotovili finančni analitiki, ki so opravili podrobno analizo družb Carrere in Studio Babelsberg.
Thus, the lower bound of the expected return on equity for a private investor would be:
Spodnja meja pričakovanega donosa lastniškega kapitala za zasebnega vlagatelja bi torej bila:
Obtaining this number is useful, as it implies that a value for the WACC substantially below 14,91 % can be dismissed out of hand.
Ta podatek je koristno izračunati, ker pomeni, da se vrednost WACC, ki je bistveno pod 14,91 %, lahko zavrne.
Pitfalls in the Methodology of LECG
Pasti v metodologiji LECG
The estimation made by the LECG study, leading to a discount factor of 5,15 %, is methodologically flawed.
Ocena, ki jo daje študija LECG, ki vodi do diskontnega faktorja 5,15 %, ima metodološke pomanjkljivosti.
LECG claimed that the right proxy for the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the realised Return on Assets (ROA) of one, or possibly two, competitors (Pinewood and Babelsberg).
LECG trdi, da je pravilni približek tehtanega povprečja stroškov kapitala (WACC) realizirani donos sredstev (ROA) enega ali morda dveh konkurentov (Pinewood in Babelsberg).
First of all, the accounting returns, such as ROA, should in general not be considered as a correct measure for an investor’s expected average return for at least three reasons [8].
Pri obračunu donosa, kot je donos sredstev, se na splošno ne bi smel šteti za pravilno merilo vlagateljevega pričakovanega donosa vsaj zaradi treh razlogov [8].
Accounting returns are calculated on an annual basis, whereas a rational investor will consider the return over the entire life time of the project.
Donosi se obračunavajo vsaj vsako leto, medtem ko bi razumni vlagatelj upošteval donos v celotni življenjski dobi projekta.
Secondly, accounting information is historical information about the company and therefore better adapted to evaluate ex post performance of the firm than ex ante expected performance on the investments.
Drugič, obračunski podatki so pretekli podatki o družbi, zato so bolj prilagojeni naknadni oceni uspešnosti podjetja kot pričakovani uspešnosti prihodnjih naložb.
The WACC measure refers to the total capital, i.e. equity and financial debt.
Merilo WACC se torej nanaša na skupni kapital, to je na lastniški kapital in finančni dolg.
However, in the liabilities side of a typical balance sheet, you find not only equity and financial debt but also current liabilities, i.e. payables to suppliers.
Na strani obveznosti v običajni bilanci stanja pa nista samo lastniški kapital in finančni dolg, ampak so tam tudi tekoče obveznosti, to so obveznosti do dobaviteljev.
Therefore, total assets are equal to or higher than total capital and for a given return, ROA is lower than or equal to ROCE [9].
Zato so skupna sredstva enaka ali višja kakor skupni kapital, za določen donos pa je ROA nižji ali enak ROCE [9].
Hence, it is the ROCE that should be compared with the WACC and not the ROA.
Zato bi bilo treba z WACC primerjati ROCE in ne ROA.
A project realises positive value if and only if the realised return on capital employed is equal to or greater than the WACC.
Projekt doseže pozitivno vrednost le, če je realizirani donos uporabljenega kapitala enak ali večji od WACC.
Competitors data
Podatki o konkurentih
Before turning to market data, we would emphasise again that the relevant benchmark is the ex-ante cost of equity capital.
Preden pregledamo tržne podatke, bi ponovno poudarili, da so ustrezno merilo predvideni stroški lastniškega kapitala.
Ex-post observed returns are only an imperfect proxy for ex-ante expectations, as ex-post realised returns are not necessarily equal to ex-ante required returns.
Naknadno ugotovljeni donosi so samo nepopoln približek predvidenih pričakovanj, saj naknadno realizirani donosi niso nujno enaki predvidenim zahtevanim donosom.
If investors are interested in the past performance of an industry, they should look at the ROCE, an ex-post return relatively neutral to the capital structure of different firms, since it includes both debt and equity.
Če vlagatelje zanima preteklo poslovanje gospodarske panoge, morajo pregledati ROCE, naknadni donos, ki je sorazmerno neodvisen od kapitalske strukture različnih podjetij, ker vključuje dolžniški in lastniški kapital.
As the level of leverage in a company increases, the return on equity for shareholders increases, as compared to the ROCE.
Z naraščanjem stopnje finančnega vzvoda v družbi se v primerjavi z ROCE povečuje donos lastniškega kapitala za delničarje.
In what follows, we analyse data on the ROCE of a representative group of competitors from various sources and observe that results are not out of line with our calibration exercise.
V nadaljevanju analiziramo podatke o ROCE reprezentativne skupine konkurentov iz različnih virov ter ugotavljamo, da so rezultati usklajeni z našo kalibracijo.
Amadeus data
Podatki AMADEUS
Amadeus is a comprehensive, pan-European database containing financial information on over 11 million public and private companies in 41 European countries provided by Bureau van Dijk (BvD) Electronic Publishing.
AMADEUS je izčrpna, vseevropska podatkovna zbirka finančnih informacij o več kot 11 milijonih javnih in zasebnih podjetjih v 41 evropskih državah, ki jih zagotavlja Bureau van Dijk (BvD) Electronic Publishing.
BvD is one of the world’s leading providers of firm level balance sheet data, with Europe being most extensively covered.
BvD je eden od vodilnih svetovnih ponudnikov bilančnih podatkov podjetij, največ podatkov je iz Evrope.
The median is the number separating the higher half of a sample from the lower half.
Mediana je številka, ki ločuje zgornjo polovico vzorca od spodnje.
If the observed values are arranged in either ascending or descending order, the median is the value in the middle.
Če so opazovane vrednosti urejene naraščajoče ali padajoče, je mediana na sredi.
The arithmetic mean (average) is the sum of all the observations divided by the number of observations.
Aritmetična sredina (povprečje) je vsota vseh opazovanih vrednosti, deljena z njihovim številom.
For many distributions, the median and mean coincide.
V številnih primerih mediana in povprečna vrednost sovpadata.
Empirically, the two may differ substantially if, despite large sample size, the observed distribution is skewed (e.g. because it contains a number of outliers, i.e. extreme observations).
Lahko se precej razlikujeta, če je opazovani primer kljub velikosti vzorca neenakomeren (npr. zato ker vsebuje precej ekstremnih vrednosti).
The data we present below is characterised by values for the mean that are higher that the median (positive skewness).
Za predstavljene podatke je značilno, da so vrednosti povprečja višje od mediane (pozitiven odklon).
Since the mean is sensitive to outliers, we focus on the median instead.
Ker je povprečje občutljivo na ekstreme, smo se raje osredotočili na mediano.
Note that this choice leads to a finding of lower returns as compared to using the sample average.
Zaradi te odločitve bodo donosi manjši, kot če bi uporabili povprečje vzorca.
Peer group analysis
Analiza skupine primerljivih podjetij
If we consider a very broad sample comprising all NACE 921 (Motion picture and video activities), this yields more than 11000 observations for the period 1994-2008.
Obravnavali smo zelo obsežen vzorec, ki je obsegal vse dejavnosti iz kategorije NACE 921 (Filmska in video dejavnost), kar pomeni več kakor 11000 opazovanj v obdobju med letoma 1994 in 2008.
Return on capital employed (ROCE)
Donos vloženega kapitala (ROCE)
Pinewood-Shepperton, Carrere Group and Barrandov Studio belong to the narrower four-digit NACE code 9211 (Motion picture and video production).
Pinewood-Shepperton, Carrere Group in Barrandov Studio spadajo v ožji razred NACE, označen s štirimestno numerično šifro 9211 (Filmska produkcija).
In addition to the NACE classifications, Amadeus provides a finer definition of peers by grouping firms within the same NACE code according to their size.
Poleg klasifikacije NACE tudi AMADEUS podrobneje razvršča podjetja po skupinah, tako da združuje podjetja iz iste kategorije NACE glede na velikost.
Pinewood-Shepperton, Carrere Group and Barrandov Studio belong to the group of ‘very large companies’ in NACE 9211 (‘very large’ is not an absolute measure, but relative to other firms belonging to NACE 9211).
Pinewood-Shepperton, Carrere Group in Barrandov Studio spadajo v skupino „zelo velikih družb“ v okviru NACE 9211 („zelo velike“ ni absolutna mera, ampak glede na druga podjetja iz kategorije NACE 9211).
The median [10] for this peer group of 45 companies over the period 2000-2006, in the cases where data were available, is as follows:
Mediana [10] za to skupino, ki je v obdobju med letoma 2000 in 2006 štela 45 podjetij, je v primerih, za katere so obstajali podatki:
Studio Babelsberg is listed in Amadeus under the same NACE code as the previous three companies, but is considered only as ‘a large company’.
Studio Babelsberg je v klasifikaciji AMADEUS uvrščen pod enako oznako NACE kot prejšnje tri družbe, vendar spada le med „velike družbe“.
The ‘large company’ peer group for NACE 9211 is formed by 133 companies.
Skupino „velike“ družbe v okviru oznake NACE 9211 sestavlja 133 družb.
The median of the group over the same period (2000-2006) is:
Mediana te skupine v enakem obdobju (2000–2006) je:
Cinecitta Studios is listed under the ‘advertising’ NACE code meaning that the peer group is inadequate for comparison purposes.
Cinecitta Studios spada pod kategorijo „Oglaševanje“ v NACE, kar pomeni, da ta skupina podjetij ni primerna za primerjavo.
CDL, too, has been assigned to a peer group with NACE code 7413 (Market research and public opinion pooling), in our opinion not relevant for our assessment.
Tudi CDL je bil razvrščen v skupino podjetij v NACE 7413 (Raziskovanje trga in javnega mnenja), ki po našem mnenju ni primerna za našo oceno.
ORBIS data [11]
Podatki ORBIS [11]
In order to obtain information on firms mentioned in the submission provided by the Spanish authorities, it was necessary to turn to ORBIS.
Da smo dobili podatke o podjetjih, navedenih v pripombah, ki so jih dali španski organi, smo se morali zateči k zbirki ORBIS.
In ORBIS, information was available for the following companies:
V zbirki ORBIS so bili na voljo podatki za naslednja podjetja:
The median over these companies and over the period 2002-2007 is:
Mediana za te družbe in za obdobje med letoma 2002 in 2007 je:
Since this group of companies is made-up of clearly identified competitors, there is no risk of including an ‘outlier’ that is not really active in the same segment as CDL (which may be the case for the peer groups that have been constructed in Amadeus).
Ker to skupino podjetij sestavljajo jasno določeni konkurenti, ni tveganja, da bi vključili „odstopnika“, ki dejansko ni dejaven v istem segmentu kot CDL (kot bi se lahko zgodilo pri skupinah podobnih podjetij, sestavljenih v okviru AMADEUS).
We therefore also report the average for that group over the 2000-2007 period.
Zato navajamo tudi povprečje za navedeno skupino v obdobju 2000–2007.
Our calibrated opportunity cost of capital for the investment in CDL stands at 14,91 %.
Naši kalibrirani oportunitetni stroški kapitala za naložbe v CDL znašajo 14,91 %.
If we accept at face value the 2004 business plan proposed by CDL and LECG’s analysis, the internal rate of return of this project is 5,74 %.
Če sprejmemo poslovni načrt za leto 2004, kot so ga predložili analitiki CDL in LECG, znaša notranja stopnja donosa tega projekta 5,74 %.
However, we stress that the cash flows forecasted in the 2004 business plans appear as unduly optimistic, especially taking into account the actual losses incurred by the company during the period 2002-2004 [12].
Poudarjamo, da so videti denarni tokovi, napovedani v poslovnem načrtu iz leta 2004, neupravičeno optimistični, zlasti ob upoštevanju dejanskih izgub, ki jih je družba imela v obdobju med letoma 2002 in 2004 [12].
Given the information at our disposal, we can conjecture that the expected cash flows presented in the 2004 business plan represented an upper bound.
Po informacijah, ki jih imamo na voljo, bi torej lahko sklepali, da so bili pričakovani denarni tokovi v poslovnem načrtu iz leta 2004 zgornja meja.
As stated in the introduction, an investor would only invest in a project with an internal rate of return larger than the opportunity cost of capital.
Kot je navedeno v uvodu, bi vlagatelj vlagal v projekt le po notranji stopnji donosa, ki bi bila višja od oportunitetnih stroškov kapitala.
Consequently, an investor in CDL would have required a much higher internal rate of return (i.e. at least 14,91 %) in order to invest in this project.
Zato bi vlagatelj v CDL zahteval precej višjo notranjo stopnjo donosa (vsaj 14,91 %), da bi vlagal v ta projekt.
We can conclude that the investment made in CDL did not fulfil the market economy investor principle.
Zaključimo lahko, da naložbe v CDL niso izpolnjevale načela vlagatelja v tržnem gospodarstvu.
With a WACC = 14,91 %, and assuming that the 2004 cash flow forecasts represent an upper limit, we computed the NPV of the project as the sum of discounted cash flows.
Če je WACC = 14,91 % in ob predpostavki, da so napovedi denarnih tokov za leto 2004 zgornja meja, smo izračunali NPV projekta kot vsoto diskontiranih denarnih tokov.
Where Dt stands for the dividend to pay in year t, g is the dividend growth rate and r the discount rate.
kjer je Dt dividenda za izplačilo leta t, g je stopnja rasti dividend in r diskontna stopnja.
This expression is highly sensitive to the parameters Dt and g. Obtaining accurate estimates for Dt and g is beyond the purpose of this note.
Ta izraz je zelo občutljiv za parametra Dt in g. Izračun natančnih ocen Dt in g presega namen tega sporočila.