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Staff Memo 5/2015 (PDF 314.9 Kb) 
Staff Memo 5/2015 (PDF 322,2 Kb)
Norges Bank uses stress tests to explore the possible consequences for banks of severe economic shocks. 
Norges Bank bruker stresstester til å undersøke mulige konsekvenser for bankene av alvorlige økonomiske forstyrrelser.
The model framework now comprises the macro model NEMO, simple relationships for developments in banking groups' problem loans and a model for projecting banking groups' earnings, balance sheets and capital adequacy. 
Modellapparatet består nå av makromodellen NEMO, enkle relasjoner for utviklingen i bankkonsernenes problemlån og en modell for fremskrivninger av bankkonsernenes resultat, balanse og kapitaldekning.
The latter projection model is referred to as "the bank model". 
Sistnevnte fremskrivningsmodell kalles «Bankmodellen».
The projections in the bank model are based on developments in the macro scenario and projected developments in problem loans in the corporate and household sectors. 
Bankmodellen tar utgangspunkt i utviklingen i makroscenarioet og den anslåtte utviklingen i problemlån til foretak og husholdninger.
This article describes Norges Bank's new model framework for stress testing with a particular focus on the assumptions, underlying data and projection rules in the bank model. 
Denne artikkelen beskriver Norges Banks nye modellapparat for stresstester med hovedvekt på forutsetninger, datagrunnlag og fremskrivningsregler i Bankmodellen.
The article is illustrated by the assumptions and results of the stress test in the 2015 Financial Stability Report. 
Artikkelen illustreres med forutsetninger og resultater fra stresstesten i rapport om Finansiell stabilitet 2015.
Deputy Governor Jon Nicolaisen addresses Norges Bank's regional network, Region Inland, Vestre Toten. 
Visesentralbanksjef Jon Nicolaisen holder foredrag for Regionalt nettverk Innland på Vestre Toten.
Governor Øystein Olsen addresses the Bergen Chamber of Commerce and Industry. 
Sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen holder foredrag for Bergen næringsråd.
Governor Øystein Olsen addresses the University of Bergen. 
Sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen holder foredrag på Universitetet i Bergen.
The Executive Board takes the report into consideration. 
Hovedstyret tar rapporten til etterretning.
The members of the expert group were: Magnus Dahlquist (Stockholm School of Economics), Christopher Polk (London School of Economics), Richard Priestley (BI Norwegian Business School) and Bernt Arne Ødegaard (University of Stavanger). 
Ekspertgruppens medlemmer var Magnus Dahlquist (Stockholm School of Economics), Christopher Polk (London School of Economics), Richard Priestley (BI Norwegian Business School) og Bernt Arne Ødegaard (Universitetet i Stavanger).
The report was discussed in the Executive Board meeting on 18 November 2015. 
Rapporten ble behandlet i Hovedstyrets møte 18. november 2015.
Download the final report 
Les sluttrapporten her
Norges Bank Investment Management has entered into contract to acquire a 44 percent interest in a portfolio comprising 11 office properties in New York City, in a joint venture with Trinity Wall Street. 
Norges Bank Investment Management har kjøpt en andel på 44 prosent av en portefølje bestående av 11 kontoreiendommer i New York City, i samarbeid med Trinity Wall Street.
The binding agreement was signed 20 November 2015 and is expected to close before year-end 2015. 
Avtalen ble signert 20. november 2015 og forventes fullført innen utgangen av året.
The properties are approximately 94 percent leased and total over 4.9 million square feet. 
Eiendommene er rundt 94 prosent utleid og omfatter et areal på omtrent 455 000 kvadratmeter.
They are all located in the Hudson Square neighbourhood of Midtown South in Manhattan. 
Alle eiendommene befinner seg rundt Hudson Square i Midtown South i Manhattan.
Properties include 12-16 Vestry Street, 200 Hudson Street, 205 Hudson Street, 75 Varick Street, 100 Avenue of the Americas, 155 Avenue of the Americas, 345 Hudson Street, 350 Hudson Street, 10 Hudson Square, 225 Varick Street and 435 Hudson Street. 
Transaksjonen inkluderer eiendommene 12-16 Vestry Street, 200 Hudson Street, 205 Hudson Street, 75 Varick Street, 100 Avenue of the Americas, 155 Avenue of the Americas, 345 Hudson Street, 350 Hudson Street, 10 Hudson Square, 225 Varick Street og 435 Hudson Street.
The total portfolio comprises more than 30 percent of the Hudson Square commercial neighbourhood. 
Den totale porteføljen omfatter mer enn 30 prosent av det kommersielle markedet i området Hudson Square.
Press contact: Line Aaltvedt, Communications Advisor Tel: +47 948 54 656¬/ +47 24 07 35 59 E-mail: press@nbim.no 
Pressekontakt: Line Aaltvedt, kommunikasjonsrådgiver Tlf: +47 948 54 656/ +47 24 07 35 59 E-post: press@nbim.no
Governor Øystein Olsen addresses Fellesforbundet (The Norwegian United Federation of Trade Unions) at Jevnaker. 
Sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen holder foredrag for Fellesforbundet på Jevnaker.
Governor Øystein Olsen gives a speech at "Mørekonferansen", a meeting hosted by Møre og Romsdal county administration in Ålesund. 
Sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen holder foredrag på Mørekonferansen i Ålesund.
Only the charts accompanying the speech will be published on our website. 
Kun figurer til foredraget vil bli publisert.
Address by Governor Svein Gjedrem to invited foreign embassy representatives, Norges Bank, Thursday, 30 March 2000 
"Diplomatforedraget" - address by Governor Svein Gjedrem to invited foreign embassy representatives, Norges Bank, Thursday, 30 March 2000
Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen 
Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen
In Norges Bank's view, there was a risk of a deflationary recession. 
In Norges Bank's view, there was a risk of a deflationary recession.
In fact, this particular risk would now seem less prominent. 
In fact, this particular risk would now seem less prominent.
At this time last year, oil prices stood at USD 10 a barrel. 
At this time last year, oil prices stood at USD 10 a barrel.
At present, oil prices are USD 24 a barrel, after having hovered around USD 30 a barrel for a while. 
At present, oil prices are USD 24 a barrel, after having hovered around USD 30 a barrel for a while.
European economies are expanding while the US economy is still booming. 
European economies are expanding while the US economy is still booming.
I shall discuss the importance of the petroleum sector and the challenges associated with volatile oil prices. 
I shall discuss the importance of the petroleum sector and the challenges associated with volatile oil prices.
Then I will give you a historical overview of monetary policy in Norway over the last 30 years. 
Then I will give you a historical overview of monetary policy in Norway over the last 30 years.
Given the current estimates for existing resources, production is expected to be at its maximum between 2000 and 2010. 
Given the current estimates for existing resources, production is expected to be at its maximum between 2000 and 2010.
It is then expected to decrease gradually as the remaining resources are reduced. 
It is then expected to decrease gradually as the remaining resources are reduced.
The future level of oil production is highly uncertain. 
The future level of oil production is highly uncertain.
Investment accounts for an import share of about 1/3. 
Investment accounts for an import share of about 1/3.
The petroleum sector is an important source of revenues for the government, both through taxes and through direct government ownership. 
The petroleum sector is an important source of revenues for the government, both through taxes and through direct government ownership.
The Norwegian government is running a budget surplus including petroleum revenues. 
The Norwegian government is running a budget surplus including petroleum revenues.
The surplus also includes returns on Fund investments. 
The surplus also includes returns on Fund investments.
In 1998 the price of oil dropped temporarily below USD 10 a barrel. 
In 1998 the price of oil dropped temporarily below USD 10 a barrel.
Last year the price increased substantially above the USD 15 to USD 17 a barrel price range that we consider a more "normal" level. 
Last year the price increased substantially above the USD 15 to USD 17 a barrel price range that we consider a more "normal" level.
Today, the price is around USD 24 a barrel. 
Today, the price is around USD 24 a barrel.
Oil revenues increase consumption potential. 
Oil revenues increase consumption potential.
In general, income can either be used now, or saved by accumulating assets abroad, so as to redistribute the income and thus consumption between generations. 
In general, income can either be used now, or saved by accumulating assets abroad, so as to redistribute the income and thus consumption between generations.
Suppose, as one extreme, that all government budget revenues were used in that same period. 
Suppose, as one extreme, that all government budget revenues were used in that same period.
To this end, Norway has created the Government Petroleum Fund. 
To this end, Norway has created the Government Petroleum Fund.
Historical perspective 
Historical perspective
The post-war fixed exchange rate system - the Bretton Woods System - collapsed in 1971. 
The post-war fixed exchange rate system - the Bretton Woods System - collapsed in 1971.
A few years later, the Yom Kippur War broke out and OPEC countries suspended oil deliveries, triggering the first oil crisis. 
A few years later, the Yom Kippur War broke out and OPEC countries suspended oil deliveries, triggering the first oil crisis.
Moreover, inflation took root in most countries. 
Moreover, inflation took root in most countries.
This chart proves the point. 
This chart proves the point.
Over a period of 15 years from 1973 to 1988 consumer prices in Norway rose twice as much as in Germany. 
Over a period of 15 years from 1973 to 1988 consumer prices in Norway rose twice as much as in Germany.
While we paid around 2 kroner for one Mark in 1973, 15 years later we had to pay close to 4 kroner. 
While we paid around 2 kroner for one Mark in 1973, 15 years later we had to pay close to 4 kroner.
Since then the krone has remained relatively stable against the Deutsche Mark. 
Since then the krone has remained relatively stable against the Deutsche Mark.
Today the exchange rate is around 4 kroner and 15 øre. 
Today the exchange rate is around 4 kroner and 15 øre.
The last devaluation came in 1986 after the fall in oil prices. 
The last devaluation came in 1986 after the fall in oil prices.
Thereafter, the krone exchange rate was fixed. 
Thereafter, the krone exchange rate was fixed.
This required very high interest rates. 
This required very high interest rates.
Unemployment rose from about 2 per cent in 1987 to almost 6 per cent in the winter of 1992/1993. 
Unemployment rose from about 2 per cent in 1987 to almost 6 per cent in the winter of 1992/1993.
Many companies went broke and households were faced with debt problems. 
Many companies went broke and households were faced with debt problems.
The financial sector was hit by crisis. 
The financial sector was hit by crisis.
The cost of inflation has been high. 
The cost of inflation has been high.
A monetary policy that fuels inflation does not generate economic growth. 
A monetary policy that fuels inflation does not generate economic growth.
The economy must be endowed with a nominal anchor. 
The economy must be endowed with a nominal anchor.
This is the task of monetary policy. 
This is the task of monetary policy.
This led to rising inflation and instability. 
This led to rising inflation and instability.
In 1999, the number of employed was 10 per cent higher than in 1990. 
In 1999, the number of employed was 10 per cent higher than in 1990.
On the contrary, we witnessed a pronounced shift in January 1997. 
On the contrary, we witnessed a pronounced shift in January 1997.
In 1996 and in the autumn of 1998, Norges Bank attempted to reduce movements in the krone exchange rate through exchange market interventions. 
In 1996 and in the autumn of 1998, Norges Bank attempted to reduce movements in the krone exchange rate through exchange market interventions.
In a world where capital flows freely, this game situation can quickly trigger large capital movements. 
In a world where capital flows freely, this game situation can quickly trigger large capital movements.
Today's monetary policy 
Today's monetary policy
The objective of monetary policy is exchange rate stability against European currencies, defined as the euro from 1 January 1999. 
The objective of monetary policy is exchange rate stability against European currencies, defined as the euro from 1 January 1999.
Norges Bank's mandate - which is the Exchange Rate Regulation - takes into account that the krone may remain outside its normal range. 
Norges Bank's mandate - which is the Exchange Rate Regulation - takes into account that the krone may remain outside its normal range.
The concept "significant changes" is not quantified and must be given an economic content. 
The concept "significant changes" is not quantified and must be given an economic content.
In this context, instruments other than those available to Norges Bank must be used to return the krone to its initial range. 
In this context, instruments other than those available to Norges Bank must be used to return the krone to its initial range.
While the downturn bottomed out in Norway in 1990, other European economies were booming. 
While the downturn bottomed out in Norway in 1990, other European economies were booming.
Subsequently, the business cycles have remained different. 
Subsequently, the business cycles have remained different.
The economic situation 
The economic situation
In response to these developments, Norges Bank raised its key rates by a considerable margin in the period to end-August 1998. 
In response to these developments, Norges Bank raised its key rates by a considerable margin in the period to end-August 1998.
When the euro was introduced as a common currency in the 11 euro area countries on 1 January 1999, the krone stood at 8.86 against the euro. 
When the euro was introduced as a common currency in the 11 euro area countries on 1 January 1999, the krone stood at 8.86 against the euro.
The objective of exchange rate stability over time thus implied that it was appropriate to reduce interest rates. 
The objective of exchange rate stability over time thus implied that it was appropriate to reduce interest rates.
In the course of 1999, Norges Bank lowered its key rates from 8 percent to 5½ per in five steps. 
In the course of 1999, Norges Bank lowered its key rates from 8 percent to 5½ per in five steps.
Norges Bank has left its key rates unchanged since September 1999. 
Norges Bank has left its key rates unchanged since September 1999.
Retail sales and credit growth are rising. 
Retail sales and credit growth are rising.
House prices continue to drift up. 
House prices continue to drift up.
Estimates for export growth have been revised upwards. 
Estimates for export growth have been revised upwards.
A year ago, our estimate of the current account surplus for this year was around 2 per cent of GDP. 
A year ago, our estimate of the current account surplus for this year was around 2 per cent of GDP.
Now, our estimate is 11 per cent of GDP, or NOK 150 billion. 
Now, our estimate is 11 per cent of GDP, or NOK 150 billion.
While fairly moderate, these forecasts are considerably higher than envisaged one year ago. 
While fairly moderate, these forecasts are considerably higher than envisaged one year ago.
Our estimates point to a very moderate rise in unemployment from 3½ per cent this year to around 3¾ per cent in 2001 and 2002. 
Our estimates point to a very moderate rise in unemployment from 3½ per cent this year to around 3¾ per cent in 2001 and 2002.
Let me conclude by summing up as follows. 
Let me conclude by summing up as follows.
Oil prices and revenues from the petroleum sector vary. 
Oil prices and revenues from the petroleum sector vary.
We must learn to live with that. 
We must learn to live with that.
Since investing the surplus abroad, the domestic economy is more or less sheltered from fluctuating oil prices. 
Since investing the surplus abroad, the domestic economy is more or less sheltered from fluctuating oil prices.
I will now be happy to answer any questions you may have. 
I will now be happy to answer any questions you may have.
He has served on Norges Bank’s Executive Board since 2010, the first two years as alternate and then as a board member since 2012. 
Siden 2010 har han vært medlem av Norges Banks hovedstyre, de første to årene som varamedlem og siden 2012 som ordinært styremedlem.
Matsen has a Ph.D in economics from the Norwegian School of Economics (2001). 
Han er utdannet dr. oecon ved Norges Handelshøyskole (2001).
Matsen will take up his post on a date to be determined. 
Matsen tiltrer stillingen etter nærmere avtale .
Press release from the Ministry of Finance (in Norwegian) 
Pressemelding fra Finansdepartementet
Press photo of Egil Matsen (Photo: Nils Stian Aasheim, Norges Bank) 
Pressefoto av Egil Matsen (Foto: Nils Stian Aasheim, Norges Bank)
Norges Bank will sell foreign exchange equivalent to NOK 600 million per day up to and including 11 December in connection with the transfers to the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) in December 2015. 
Noregs Bank vil selje valuta tilsvarande 600 millionar kroner kvar dag til og med 11. desember i samband med avsettinga til Statens pensjonsfond utland (SPU) i desember 2015.
Speech by Governor Øystein Olsen at the "Desemberkonferansen" oil and gas conference in Kristiansund. 
Sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen holder foredrag på Desemberkonferansen i Kristiansund.
Published 3 December 2015 11:15 
Publisert 3. desember 2015 11:15
In 1969, on the day before Christmas Eve, Norway as a nation received the gift of the century: we struck oil! 
Lille julaften 1969 fikk Norge som nasjon århundrets julegave: Vi fant olje!
The Ekofisk oil field was the largest subsea oil field ever discovered. 
Ekofisk var det største oljefelt som noensinne var funnet til havs.
The discovery of oil was the start of an extraordinary era for the Norwegian economy. 
Dette ga starten til en eventyrlig epoke for norsk økonomi.
Chart: OECD countries' per capita GDP in 1971 
Figur: BNP per innbygger i OECD 1971
Chart: OECD countries' per capita GDP in 2014 
Figur: BNP per innbygger i OECD 2014
We have gradually caught up with the wealthiest nations. 
Vi har gradvis hentet inn forspranget de rikeste landene hadde på oss.
Measured by GDP per capita, Norway now ranks at the very top. 
Målt ved BNP per innbygger ligger Norge nå helt i toppen.
It was established at an early stage that Norway's oil and gas resources belong to the Norwegian people. 
Det ble tidlig slått fast at olje- og gassressursene tilhører fellesskapet.
The tax system and framework conditions for the petroleum industry were designed so that the large revenues from this sector would accrue to the state. 
Skattesystem og rammevilkår for petroleumsvirksomheten ble utformet slik at de store overskuddene tilfalt staten.
The discovery of oil in the North Sea generated a wealth of opportunity for Norwegian business and industry. 
Oljefunnene i Nordsjøen ga store muligheter for norsk næringsliv.
This entailed the building up of expertise in our own country, which would secure a full order book for many years ahead – and not only off our own shore. 
Oppbygging av egen kompetanse skulle sikre oppdrag i mange år fremover – og ikke bare utenfor egen kyst.
The activities on the Norwegian continental shelf would also provide a boost to other industries in Norway. 
Aktiviteten på sokkelen skulle også gi ringvirkninger til andre deler av næringslivet.
Chart: A new market for the shipbuilding industry 
Figur: Et nytt marked for verftsindustrien
And the timing was perfect: economic stagnation and competition from Asian countries had brought the Norwegian shipping industry to the brink of a crisis. 
Og timingen var perfekt: økonomisk stagnasjon og konkurranse fra asiatiske land hadde ført norsk skipsbyggingsindustri til randen av krise.
With the discovery of oil, an adaptable shipbuilding industry and the oil companies were soon on good terms. 
En tilpasningsdyktig verftsindustri og oljeselskapene fant raskt tonen.
To provide room for the oil sector and higher consumption of goods and services, other industries had to give way. 
For å gi plass for oljesektoren og økt forbruk av varer og tjenester, måtte andre næringer vike.
The mechanisms described in the white paper are familiar: 
Mekanismene som beskrives i meldingen er velkjente.
So, the nation was prepared for restructuring and for the costs this would involve. 
Man var altså forberedt på omstillinger, og at disse ville medføre kostnader.
But the white paper also made it clear that, in order to reap the benefits of economic growth, restructuring would be necessary. 
Men meldingen var klar på at omstillinger var nødvendig om man ville oppnå fordelene ved økonomisk vekst.
We now know, more than 40 years later, that structural changes were indeed made. 
I dag, mer enn 40 år etter, vet vi at omstillingene kom.
A growing number of firms, and not only in the engineering industry, have targeted the oil industry. 
Stadig flere bedrifter – ikke bare innen verkstedindustrien – har rettet aktiviteten inn mot leveranser til oljesektoren.
Chart: High wages in the oil industry 
Figur: Oljesektoren har betalt godt
Oil companies have had the capacity and the willingness to pay. 
Oljeselskapene har hatt både evne og vilje til å betale.
Oil company employees have been wage winners here in Norway. 
Selskapenes egne ansatte har vært lønnsvinnere her hjemme.
A state-of-the-art oil service industry has emerged. 
En avansert leverandørnæring har vokst frem.
For many firms, the contracts on the Norwegian continental shelf have been a springboard to new export markets. 
For mange har oppdragene på norsk sokkel vært et springbrett til nye eksportmarkeder.
Chart: Growth in oil investment 
Figur: Vekst i oljeinvesteringene
High oil prices and a profitable petroleum production industry have led to record-high oil investment in recent years. 
Høy oljepris og god lønnsomhet i utvinningen av olje og gass førte til at oljeinvesteringene stadig satte nye rekorder.
The level of investment in 2014 was equivalent to that of all the domestic non-oil industries combined. 
Nivået i 2014 tilsvarte de samlede investeringene i vårt øvrige næringsliv.
The positive spillovers to the oil service industry and other firms have been substantial. 
Ringvirkningene til leverandørindustrien og andre bedrifter har vært betydelige.
A large share of the business sector and the labour market is now linked to the oil industry. 
En betydelig del av næringslivet og arbeidsmarkedet er i dag knyttet opp mot oljevirksomheten.
A relatively small number of jobs are directly involved in oil and gas production. 
Det er relativt få som er sysselsatt direkte i utvinningen av olje og gass.
But if account is taken of all the suppliers to the petroleum sector, about 1 in 9 jobs in Norway, a total of about 300 000, were linked to the oil industry in 2014 [1]. 
Men regner vi med alle som leverer til sektoren, var om lag én av ni jobber i Norge – rundt 300 000 i alt – knyttet til oljevirksomheten i 2014 [1].
A growing number of these jobs are related to exports of oil extraction equipment. 
En økende del av denne aktiviteten har vært basert på leveranser til oljeutvinning i andre land.
The oil and gas industry has played a decisive role in the strong growth of the Norwegian economy over the past 40 years. 
Fremveksten av olje- og gassvirksomheten har vært avgjørende for den sterke økonomiske veksten i Norge de siste 40 årene.
The past 15 years stand out in particular. 
Særlig har de siste 15 årene skilt seg ut.
But this dependence on oil has also made the Norwegian economy vulnerable to changes in oil prices or a decline in petroleum revenues. 
Men oljeavhengigheten betyr også at norsk økonomi er blitt sårbar for endringer i oljeprisen og svikt i inntektene fra sokkelen.