natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Percentage of periods with excess returns in the stock market 
Percentage of periods with excess returns in the stock market
1 year 
1 year
59.0% 
59.0%
5 years 
5 years
71.2% 
71.2%
10 years 
10 years
82.3% 
82.3%
30 years 
30 years
100.0% 
100.0%
This would also provide information about the probability of losses in the portfolio in any given year. 
This would also provide information about the probability of losses in the portfolio in any given year.
Bonds: 
Bonds:
Salomon Brothers US Index 
Salomon Brothers US Index
Salomon Brothers Japan Index 
Salomon Brothers Japan Index
Salomon Brothers European Index 
Salomon Brothers European Index
Equities: 
Equities:
Morgan Stanley Capital Int. 
Morgan Stanley Capital Int.
North-America Index 
North-America Index
Pacific Index 
Pacific Index
Europe Index 
Europe Index
Market allocation: 
Market allocation:
USA/North-America: 
USA/North-America:
30% 
30%
Japan/Pacific: 
Japan/Pacific:
20% 
20%
Europe: 
Europe:
Some may argue that historical return figures are not representative of expected future developments. 
Some may argue that historical return figures are not representative of expected future developments.
As regards the point about avoiding negative returns, the main risk factors are: 
As regards the point about avoiding negative returns, the main risk factors are:
that returns on both bonds and equity will fall, 
that returns on both bonds and equity will fall,
that the correlation between the equity and bond markets increases. 
that the correlation between the equity and bond markets increases.
As there is no perfect correlation between bonds and equity, substantial losses in bonds and stocks do not necessarily coincide. 
As there is no perfect correlation between bonds and equity, substantial losses in bonds and stocks do not necessarily coincide.
Based on historical figures, an equity proportion of between 30 to 40 per cent would incur the smallest losses in the unadjusted returns series. 
Based on historical figures, an equity proportion of between 30 to 40 per cent would incur the smallest losses in the unadjusted returns series.
But such an extreme aversion to risk is hardly relevant in our case. 
But such an extreme aversion to risk is hardly relevant in our case.
What should then the equity proportion of the Government Petroleum Fund be? 
What should then the equity proportion of the Government Petroleum Fund be?
Currency and market distribution 
Currency and market distribution
The problem is, of course, that we know what today's import weights are, but can hardly guess what these weights will be in 20 years. 
The problem is, of course, that we know what today's import weights are, but can hardly guess what these weights will be in 20 years.
Another point is that the import weights are not adjusted for trade flows with third countries. 
Another point is that the import weights are not adjusted for trade flows with third countries.
Germany and Sweden account for the largest share of Norwegian imports. 
Germany and Sweden account for the largest share of Norwegian imports.
But Swedish and German industry also rely on imports from other countries. 
But Swedish and German industry also rely on imports from other countries.
Norwegian import weights are fairly similar to our export weights. 
Norwegian import weights are fairly similar to our export weights.
Global export weights, or global GDP weights, have their appeal from this perspective. 
Global export weights, or global GDP weights, have their appeal from this perspective.
Market capitalisation weights will then minimise these transaction costs. 
Market capitalisation weights will then minimise these transaction costs.
Both GDP weights and global export weights are closer to the market capitalisation weights than the Norwegian import weights. 
Both GDP weights and global export weights are closer to the market capitalisation weights than the Norwegian import weights.
Finally, one may consider the purpose of an in-depth analyses of the distribution of investments by country. 
Finally, one may consider the purpose of an in-depth analyses of the distribution of investments by country.
We are thus left with a number of options which are to some extent quite distinct from each other. 
We are thus left with a number of options which are to some extent quite distinct from each other.
What is the conclusion? 
What is the conclusion?
In this connection, two questions must be answered: 
In this connection, two questions must be answered:
How should the portfolio's risk be measured? 
How should the portfolio's risk be measured?
The current guidelines for the management of foreign exchange reserves set out separate limits on currency distribution and duration. 
The current guidelines for the management of foreign exchange reserves set out separate limits on currency distribution and duration.
But the methods "Value at risk/Tracking error" have certain drawbacks. 
But the methods "Value at risk/Tracking error" have certain drawbacks.
The management of the Petroleum Fund entails new challenges as regards the definition of risk limits. 
The management of the Petroleum Fund entails new challenges as regards the definition of risk limits.
Limits must not only be defined for fixed-income portfolios, but also for portfolios with a high probability for equity investments. 
Limits must not only be defined for fixed-income portfolios, but also for portfolios with a high probability for equity investments.
Operational aspects 
Operational aspects
Liquidity 
Liquidity
It will probably be necessary to spread the purchases over a longer period. 
It will probably be necessary to spread the purchases over a longer period.
This will create problems when comparing against the benchmark portfolio. 
This will create problems when comparing against the benchmark portfolio.
Ownership 
Ownership
It goes without saying that Norges Bank, as the central bank, avoids investments that entail expectations of active ownership on the part of the Bank. 
It goes without saying that Norges Bank, as the central bank, avoids investments that entail expectations of active ownership on the part of the Bank.
This could put the central bank in an unfavourable light in the public opinion. 
This could put the central bank in an unfavourable light in the public opinion.
This question also makes synthetic equity investments potentially interesting. 
This question also makes synthetic equity investments potentially interesting.
Internal/external management 
Internal/external management
The management of equity portfolios requires broad competence in an organisation. 
The management of equity portfolios requires broad competence in an organisation.
In the front office the competence required will obviously depend on the management style adopted. 
In the front office the competence required will obviously depend on the management style adopted.
Active management, where one takes positions in individual companies and industries, requires more resources than a more risk-averse strategy such as indexing. 
Active management, where one takes positions in individual companies and industries, requires more resources than a more risk-averse strategy such as indexing.
However, indexing does not require the same insight into individual companies, but is more a question of having the necessary technological support and flexibility for combining direct investments and derivatives. 
However, indexing does not require the same insight into individual companies, but is more a question of having the necessary technological support and flexibility for combining direct investments and derivatives.
But equity investments also require considerable resources for purposes of settlement, accounting, and control. 
But equity investments also require considerable resources for purposes of settlement, accounting, and control.
Such a system is not implemented overnight. 
Such a system is not implemented overnight.
But we are hesitant to define mandates for external managers which we are not able to control ourselves. 
But we are hesitant to define mandates for external managers which we are not able to control ourselves.
Organizers: The Graduate Institute, Geneva and Norges Bank, Oslo 
Organizers: The Graduate Institute, Geneva and Norges Bank, Oslo
Venue: The Graduate Institute, Geneva, AJF room at Villa Barton, 132, rue de Lausanne, 1202 Geneva 
Venue: The Graduate Institute, Geneva, AJF room at Villa Barton, 132, rue de Lausanne, 1202 Geneva
Thursday 30 October 
Thursday 30 October
Session I Writing Central Bank history – what are the challenges? 
Session I Writing Central Bank history – what are the challenges?
Chair: Øyvind Eitrheim, Norges Bank Archive work on International Reserves (Marc Flandreau, The Graduate Institute) 
Chair: Øyvind Eitrheim, Norges Bank Archive work on International Reserves (Marc Flandreau, The Graduate Institute)
Archive work in the Bank of England project (Forrest Capie, Bank of England) 
Archive work in the Bank of England project (Forrest Capie, Bank of England)
The Austrian National Bank project (Clemens Jobst, Oesterreichische Nationalbank) 
The Austrian National Bank project (Clemens Jobst, Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Archive work in the Norges Bank project (Einar Lie and Christian Venneslan, University of Oslo) 
Archive work in the Norges Bank project (Einar Lie and Christian Venneslan, University of Oslo)
History projects about the BIS and Banca d’Italia (Gianni Toniolo, Duke University) 
History projects about the BIS and Banca d’Italia (Gianni Toniolo, Duke University)
The Swiss National Bank project (Patrick Halbeisen, Swiss National Bank) 
The Swiss National Bank project (Patrick Halbeisen, Swiss National Bank)
The Norges Bank history project (Sverre Knutsen, Norwegian School of Management (BI) and Einar Lie, University of Oslo) 
The Norges Bank history project (Sverre Knutsen, Norwegian School of Management (BI) and Einar Lie, University of Oslo)
Friday 31 October 
Friday 31 October
Session II Monetary History and Business Cycles Chair: Michael Bordo, Rutgers University 
Session II Monetary History and Business Cycles Chair: Michael Bordo, Rutgers University
Chair’s introduction 
Chair’s introduction
Constructing and Using Long-Run Historical Data. 
Constructing and Using Long-Run Historical Data.
An International Perspective (Pierre Siklos, WLU) 
An International Perspective (Pierre Siklos, WLU)
Chair’s summary remarks 
Chair’s summary remarks
Session II (cont’d) Monetary History and the Monetary Policy Framework 
Session II (cont’d) Monetary History and the Monetary Policy Framework
History as a Guide to Current Monetary Policy (Robert Hetzel, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) 
History as a Guide to Current Monetary Policy (Robert Hetzel, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
Historical perspectives on Central Bank liquidity policy (Harold James, Princeton University) 
Historical perspectives on Central Bank liquidity policy (Harold James, Princeton University)
Session III European Monetary History – Nordic perspectives Chair: Marc Flandreau, The Graduate Institute, Geneva 
Session III European Monetary History – Nordic perspectives Chair: Marc Flandreau, The Graduate Institute, Geneva
The Monetary History of Norway (Jan Tore Klovland and Lars Fredrik Øksendal) 
The Monetary History of Norway (Jan Tore Klovland and Lars Fredrik Øksendal)
Session III (cont’d) Monetary History – Nordic perspectives 
Session III (cont’d) Monetary History – Nordic perspectives
How to write the history of the Swedish Riksbank (Lars Jonung, European Commission) 
How to write the history of the Swedish Riksbank (Lars Jonung, European Commission)
The Bank of Finland history project (Juha Tarkka, Bank of Finland) 
The Bank of Finland history project (Juha Tarkka, Bank of Finland)
Norges Bank will sell foreign exchange equivalent to NOK 300 million per day up to and including 12 December in connection with the transfers to the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) in December 2014. 
Noregs Bank vil selje valuta tilsvarande 300 millionar kroner kvar dag til og med 12. desember 2014 i samband med avsettinga til Statens pensjonsfond utland (SPU).
Norges Bank will gradually reduce the size of the petroleum buffer portfolio in 2015 by selling foreign exchange in the market. 
Noregs Bank vil gjennom 2015 gradvis redusere størrelsen på petrobufferporteføljen ved å selje valuta i marknaden.
The upturn in the world economy remains moderate and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding developments ahead. 
Oppgangen i verdensøkonomien er fortsatt moderat, og usikkerheten om utviklingen fremover er stor.
Growth prospects for the Norwegian economy have weakened. 
Her hjemme er vekstutsiktene svekket.
Activity in the petroleum industry is softening and the sharp fall in oil prices is likely to amplify this tendency. 
Aktiviteten i petroleumsnæringen avtar, og det kraftige fallet i oljeprisen vil trolig forsterke denne utviklingen.
This will have spillover effects on the wider economy and unemployment may edge up ahead. 
Det vil gi ringvirkninger for resten av økonomien, og arbeidsledigheten kan øke noe fremover.
"The analysis in the Monetary Policy Report presented today implies a key policy rate of 1¼ percent, or somewhat lower, in the period towards the end of 2016", says Governor Øystein Olsen. 
– Analysene i den pengepolitiske rapporten vi legger fram i dag, tilsier en styringsrente på 1¼ prosent eller noe lavere fram mot slutten av 2016, sier sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen.
Capacity utilisation in the mainland economy will probably decline to a further extent than projected earlier, but is expected to increase again towards the end of the projection period. 
Kapasitetsutnyttingen i fastlandsøkonomien vil trolig avta mer enn tidligere anslått, men ventes å øke igjen mot slutten av anslagsperioden.
Inflation is projected to lie close to 2.5 percent in the coming years. 
Prisveksten ventes å ligge nær 2,5 prosent de neste årene.
The Executive Board decided at its meeting that the key policy rate should lie in the interval ¾–1¾ percent in the period to the publication of the next Report on 19 March 2015, unless the Norwegian economy is exposed to new major shocks. 
Hovedstyret vedtok på møtet at styringsrenten bør ligge i intervallet ¾–1¾ prosent i perioden fram til neste rapport legges fram 19. mars 2015, med mindre norsk økonomi blir utsatt for nye store forstyrrelser.
Norges Bank has submitted its quarterly advice on the level of the countercyclical capital buffer requirement for banks to the Ministry of Finance. 
Norges Bank har sendt Finansdepartementet det kvartalsvise rådet om krav til motsyklisk kapitalbuffer i bankene.
The decision basis for Norges Bank's advice is presented in the December 2014 Monetary Policy Report. 
Beslutningsgrunnlaget for rådet er gjengitt i Pengepolitisk rapport 4/14.
House prices have risen markedly through autumn, and household debt is still rising somewhat faster than household income. 
Boligprisene har steget markert gjennom høsten, og gjelden i husholdningene vokser fortsatt noe raskere enn inntektene.
There are signs that banks are easing credit standards for the household sector. 
Det er tegn til at bankene letter på kredittpraksisen overfor husholdningene.
Corporate debt growth, on the other hand, is low and the fall in oil prices has increased the risk of considerably weaker developments in the Norwegian economy. 
Derimot er gjeldsveksten til foretakene lav, og fallet i oljeprisen har økt risikoen for en vesentlig svakere utvikling i norsk økonomi.
"The analysis in the Report indicates that financial imbalances as a whole are not building up further. 
– Analysen i rapporten tyder på at de finansielle ubalansene samlet sett ikke bygger seg videre opp.
Should house prices continue to rise markedly faster than household income, imbalances may increase again", says Governor Øystein Olsen. 
Skulle boligprisene fortsette å stige markert raskere enn husholdningenes inntekter, kan ubalansene igjen øke, sier sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen.
Banks have posted solid earnings so far this year and are well positioned to meet future capital requirements. 
Bankene har hatt god lønnsomhet så langt i år og er på god vei til å møte de nye kapitalkravene.
Series: Monetary Policy Report Number: 4/2014 
Serie: Pengepolitisk rapport Nummer: 4/2014
Monetary Policy Report 4/14 (PDF 1.3 Mb) 
Pengepolitisk rapport 4/14 (PDF 1,5 Mb)
Key policy rate decision (Press release 11 December 2014) 
Rentebeslutning (pressemelding 11. desember 2014)
Countercyclical capital buffer (Press release 11 December 2014) 
Motsyklisk kapitalbuffer 4. kvartal 2014 (pressemelding 11. desember 2014)
The Executive Board's assessment in the December 2014 Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment (PDF) 
Hovedstyrets vurdering i Pengepolitisk rapport med vurdering av finansiell stabilitet 4/14 (PDF)
Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment 4/14 
Pengepolitisk rapport med vurdering av finansiell stabilitet 4/14
Staff Memo 2014/15: Sticky prices and inflation expectations in Norway 
Staff Memo 2014/15: Sticky prices and inflation expectations in Norway
Norges Bank's letter of 10 December 2014 to the Ministry of Finance. 
Norges Banks brev av 10. desember 2014 til Finansdepartementet.
On 26 September 2014, the Ministry of Finance decided to keep the buffer rate unchanged at 1 percent effective from 30 June 2015, in line with Norges Bank's advice. 
Den 26. september i år besluttet Finansdepartementet å holde kravet uendret på 1 prosent fra 30. juni 2015 i tråd med råd fra Norges Bank.
The decision basis for Norges Bank's advice on the countercyclical capital buffer in 2014 Q4 is presented in the December 2014 Monetary Policy Report. 
Beslutningsgrunnlaget for Norges Banks råd om motsyklisk kapitalbuffer i fjerde kvartal 2014 legges fram i Pengepolitisk rapport 4/14.
The premise for Norges Bank's assessment is that banks should build up and hold a countercyclical capital buffer when financial imbalances are building up or have built up. 
Norges Bank har som utgangspunkt for sin vurdering at bankene bør bygge opp og holde en motsyklisk kapitalbuffer når finansielle ubalanser bygger seg opp eller har bygd seg opp.
The buffer rate can be reduced in the event of an economic downturn and large bank losses with a view to mitigating the procyclical effects of tighter bank lending. 
Ved tilbakeslag i økonomien og store tap i bankene kan bufferkravet settes ned for å motvirke at en strammere utlånspraksis forsterker nedgangen.
Banks' profitability was solid in 2014 Q3. 
Bankene hadde meget god lønnsomhet i tredje kvartal.
At the end of the quarter, the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios of the largest banks were 2–3 percentage points above the total capital requirement applicable from 1 July 2014. 
Ved utgangen av kvartalet hadde de største bankene en ren kjernekapitaldekning som lå 2-3 prosentenheter over det samlede kapitalkravet som gjaldt fra 1. juli i år.
Norges Bank's assessment is based on the credit-to-GDP ratio and its deviation from a long-term trend. 
Norges Banks vurdering tar utgangspunkt i forholdet mellom kreditt og BNP og hvordan dette avviker fra en langsiktig trend.
Household debt is still growing somewhat more rapidly than disposable income. 
Husholdningenes gjeld vokser fortsatt noe raskere enn de disponible inntektene.
There are signs that banks are easing credit standards for the household sector, and lending rates have been reduced. 
Det er tegn til at bankene letter på kredittpraksisen overfor husholdningene, og utlånsrentene er satt ned.
Corporate debt growth has slowed markedly over the past year. 
Foretakenes gjeldsvekst har avtatt markert det siste året.
With an alternative trend calculation method, which has been shown to provide a better leading indicator of crises, the reference rate is ½ percent. 
Med en alternativ trendberegning, som erfaringsmessig gir en bedre ledende indikator for kriser, blir referanseverdien for bufferen ½ prosent.
After falling in autumn 2013, house prices have picked up through 2014. 
Etter å ha falt sist høst har boligprisene tatt seg opp gjennom 2014.
In some months through summer and autumn, house price inflation has been especially strong, and over the past year house prices have risen faster than household disposable income. 
I enkelte måneder gjennom sommeren og høsten har prisveksten på boliger vært særlig sterk, og det siste året har boligprisene steget raskere enn husholdningenes inntekter.
Banks's share of market funding has been stable at a high level in recent years. 
Andelen markedsfinansiering har vært stabilt høy de siste årene.
In Norges Bank's assessment, there has not been a further build-up of financial imbalances as a whole. 
Norges Banks vurdering er at de finansielle ubalansene samlet sett ikke har bygd seg videre opp.
Recent developments in the housing market and banks' lending standards may increase household vulnerability. 
Utviklingen i boligmarkedet og bankenes utlånspraksis den siste tiden kan gjøre husholdningene mer sårbare.
On the other hand, corporate credit growth is low, and the fall in oil prices has increased the risk of substantially weaker developments in the Norwegian economy. 
På den annen side er kredittveksten til foretakene lav, og fallet i oljeprisen har økt risikoen for en vesentlig svakere utvikling i norsk økonomi.
The decision basis suggests that the buffer rate should be kept unchanged now. 
Beslutningsgrunnlaget taler for å holde bufferkravet uendret nå.
Should house prices continue to rise markedly faster than household income in the period ahead, with a further build-up in financial imbalances, it will be appropriate to advise the Ministry to raise the level of the countercyclical capital buffer. 
Skulle boligprisene fortsette å stige markert raskere enn husholdningenes inntekter, slik at de finansielle ubalansene øker, vil det bli aktuelt å gi råd om en høyere motsyklisk kapitalbuffer.
Norges Bank will sell foreign exchange equivalent to NOK 500 million per day in connection with the transfers to the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) in January 2015. 
Noregs Bank vil selje valuta tilsvarande 500 millionar kroner kvar dag i samband med avsettinga til Statens pensjonsfond utland (SPU) i januar 2015.
Annual address by Governor Kjell Storvik, Meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank, Thursday 19 February 1998. 
Sentralbanksjef Kjell Storviks foredrag på Norges Banks representantskaps årsmøte torsdag 19. februar 1998
Over the past six months we have witnessed the unfolding of a severe economic setback in Asia. 
I løpet av det siste halve året har vi vært vitne til et alvorlig økonomisk tilbakeslag i Asia.
Deteriorating confidence has in record time turned growth into stagnation and compelled the authorities to yield to market pressures and see the value of their currencies fall. 
Sviktende tillit har på rekordtid snudd vekst til stagnasjon, og ført til at myndighetene måtte gi etter for markedspress og se valutakursene falle.
These countries have been experiencing considerable problems in refinancing both foreign and domestic debt, and it has gradually become clear that a number of Asian countries are experiencing a financial crisis. 
Det har oppstått betydelige problemer med å refinansiere både utenlandsk og innenlandsk gjeld, og gradvis er det blitt klart at landene i Asia står overfor en finansiell krise.
The growth in international capital flows over the last decade has led to the emergence of a new global economy with intensified international competition, but also more pronounced fluctuations and greater sensitivity to imbalances in the economy. 
Veksten i de internasjonale kapitalstrømmene det siste ti-året har gitt en ny dimensjon til utviklingen mot en global økonomi, med økt konkurranse over landegrensene, men også større svingninger og sårbarhet overfor ubalanser i økonomiene.