natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
We know this because current climate models project long-term increases in global average surface temperatures. 
We know this because current climate models project long-term increases in global average surface temperatures.
But science is increasingly concerned that more sudden, dramatic shifts could be possible. 
But science is increasingly concerned that more sudden, dramatic shifts could be possible.
Such shifts in the climate or climate-linked ecosystems could have dramatic economic and ecological consequences. 
Such shifts in the climate or climate-linked ecosystems could have dramatic economic and ecological consequences.
We have overwhelming evidence that dramatic shifts are not conducive to human development. 
We have overwhelming evidence that dramatic shifts are not conducive to human development.
Human civilization has developed during a period of very stable global temperatures, as the blue line in the figure shows. 
Human civilization has developed during a period of very stable global temperatures, as the blue line in the figure shows.
If temperatures rise rapidly, natural and human conditions will change dramatically as well. 
If temperatures rise rapidly, natural and human conditions will change dramatically as well.
This unpredictability grows on you when you consider that most of the earth’s environmental and natural resource systems are under high pressure: the biodiversity crisis is less talked of than the climate crisis, but it is no less serious. 
This unpredictability grows on you when you consider that most of the earth’s environmental and natural resource systems are under high pressure: the biodiversity crisis is less talked of than the climate crisis, but it is no less serious.
Protection efforts are far from keeping pace with the deterioration. 
Protection efforts are far from keeping pace with the deterioration.
Moreover, there are complex interdependencies of water, food, energy, land, health, infrastructure, and labor - interdependencies that institutions in charge of single sectors will not be able to address. 
Moreover, there are complex interdependencies of water, food, energy, land, health, infrastructure, and labor - interdependencies that institutions in charge of single sectors will not be able to address.
A pressing example is the fact that according to the UN, half of the world’s population will face water shortages by 2035. 
A pressing example is the fact that according to the UN, half of the world’s population will face water shortages by 2035.
Rising demands from population growth, greater consumption, and agricultural production will exhaust water supplies, which will become less reliable in some regions from groundwater depletion and changing precipitation patterns. 
Rising demands from population growth, greater consumption, and agricultural production will exhaust water supplies, which will become less reliable in some regions from groundwater depletion and changing precipitation patterns.
More than 30 countries — nearly half of them in the Middle East — are likely to experience extremely high water stress by 2035. 
More than 30 countries — nearly half of them in the Middle East — are likely to experience extremely high water stress by 2035.
This will inevitably lead to increasing economic, social and political tensions. 
This will inevitably lead to increasing economic, social and political tensions.
State fragility is exacerbated by climate change 
State fragility is exacerbated by climate change
When fragile states fail or collapse, climate change can act as a risk multiplier, whether we talk of civil war or of terrorism. 
When fragile states fail or collapse, climate change can act as a risk multiplier, whether we talk of civil war or of terrorism.
According to a recent report commissioned by the German Foreign Office, terrorist groups are using control of natural resources – such as water – as a weapon of war. 
According to a recent report commissioned by the German Foreign Office, terrorist groups are using control of natural resources – such as water – as a weapon of war.
The scarcer resources become, the more power is given to those who control them. 
The scarcer resources become, the more power is given to those who control them.
Examples include ISIS and Boko Haram. 
Examples include ISIS and Boko Haram.
In Syria, the civil war and rise of Isis was propelled by one of the worst droughts in the country’s history. 
In Syria, the civil war and rise of Isis was propelled by one of the worst droughts in the country’s history.
The number of internally displaced persons increased considerably before the uprising, as you see from the figure. 
The number of internally displaced persons increased considerably before the uprising, as you see from the figure.
Hundreds of thousands were driven from their land, and millions were sent into poverty and food insecurity. 
Hundreds of thousands were driven from their land, and millions were sent into poverty and food insecurity.
A number of studies have pointed out that the record drought that ravaged Syria in 2005 to 2010 was likely stoked by ongoing manmade climate change. 
A number of studies have pointed out that the record drought that ravaged Syria in 2005 to 2010 was likely stoked by ongoing manmade climate change.
These studies are not saying the drought caused the war. 
These studies are not saying the drought caused the war.
They are suggesting that it helped push conditions over the threshold into open conflict, when added to all the other stressors. 
They are suggesting that it helped push conditions over the threshold into open conflict, when added to all the other stressors.
Syria is just one example of how climate change is acting as a ‘threat multiplier’ that will increase state fragility, fuel social unrest and potentially unleash violent conflict and mass migration. 
Syria is just one example of how climate change is acting as a ‘threat multiplier’ that will increase state fragility, fuel social unrest and potentially unleash violent conflict and mass migration.
Climate change is not the only change we have to deal with 
Climate change is not the only change we have to deal with
While the challenge of climate change is a huge one, it is not the only challenge of accelerated change we face as politicians. 
While the challenge of climate change is a huge one, it is not the only challenge of accelerated change we face as politicians.
We are experiencing technological and economic changes that are increasingly hard to master for governments, and that can cause societal reactions and political shocks. 
We are experiencing technological and economic changes that are increasingly hard to master for governments, and that can cause societal reactions and political shocks.
Accelerated climate change, therefore, is not only a significant risk factor in its own right - it is a factor that can interplay with and magnify other risk factors. 
Accelerated climate change, therefore, is not only a significant risk factor in its own right - it is a factor that can interplay with and magnify other risk factors.
Ironically, some of these risks are triggered by actions designed to help solve climate and environmental challenges. 
Ironically, some of these risks are triggered by actions designed to help solve climate and environmental challenges.
Let me touch on three broad risk areas: economic, technological and demographic. 
Let me touch on three broad risk areas: economic, technological and demographic.
First, economic risks . 
First, economic risks .
The globalised economy is currently challenged by a backlash from nationalist populism and protectionist forces. 
The globalised economy is currently challenged by a backlash from nationalist populism and protectionist forces.
This challenge finds different expressions in different countries, but the risks to free trade and the global economy are real. 
This challenge finds different expressions in different countries, but the risks to free trade and the global economy are real.
Should such risks come to pass, we would be in a weaker position to manage the economic disruption that may be caused by climate change as well as actions to combat climate change. 
Should such risks come to pass, we would be in a weaker position to manage the economic disruption that may be caused by climate change as well as actions to combat climate change.
The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has pointed to climate change as a risk to financial stability, in three ways: 
The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has pointed to climate change as a risk to financial stability, in three ways:
- the physical risks that arise from the increased frequency and severity of climate- and weather-related events that damage property and disrupt trade. 
- the physical risks that arise from the increased frequency and severity of climate- and weather-related events that damage property and disrupt trade.
He points out that growing swathes of our economies could become uninsurable. 
He points out that growing swathes of our economies could become uninsurable.
Moreover, if coverage is not maintained, he says the broader financial system would become increasingly exposed to large and variable physical risks 
Moreover, if coverage is not maintained, he says the broader financial system would become increasingly exposed to large and variable physical risks
- the liability risks that we already see when some are taking action against companies on the grounds of failure to disclose the risks posed to their business models by climate change. 
- the liability risks that we already see when some are taking action against companies on the grounds of failure to disclose the risks posed to their business models by climate change.
- the transition risks which could result from the adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy. 
- the transition risks which could result from the adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy.
Changes in policy, technology and physical risks could prompt a reassessment of the value of a large range of assets. 
Changes in policy, technology and physical risks could prompt a reassessment of the value of a large range of assets.
Just as we can have climate shocks and technological disruptions, we may also have "policy shocks" in response to dramatic climate events. 
Just as we can have climate shocks and technological disruptions, we may also have "policy shocks" in response to dramatic climate events.
Secondly, technology-induced risks . 
Secondly, technology-induced risks .
Combatting climate change will require faster technological change. 
Combatting climate change will require faster technological change.
And indeed, technology is accelerating the pace of change around us, and in the process it is triggering new complex challenges, disruptions and tensions. 
And indeed, technology is accelerating the pace of change around us, and in the process it is triggering new complex challenges, disruptions and tensions.
Advanced digital solutions, AI, new materials, robotics and automation, advances in biotechnology, and the energy revolution promise to disrupt labor markets; alter health, energy, and transportation systems; and transform economic development. 
Advanced digital solutions, AI, new materials, robotics and automation, advances in biotechnology, and the energy revolution promise to disrupt labor markets; alter health, energy, and transportation systems; and transform economic development.
Some of these developments will magnify values differences across societies, and hence it will be difficult to agree on international regulations or norms in these areas. 
Some of these developments will magnify values differences across societies, and hence it will be difficult to agree on international regulations or norms in these areas.
Risks associated with some of these applications are real, especially in synthetic biology, genome editing, and AI. 
Risks associated with some of these applications are real, especially in synthetic biology, genome editing, and AI.
As an example, we are seeing a revolution in biological research: this may help us address environmental along with medical, health, industrial, and agricultural challenges. 
As an example, we are seeing a revolution in biological research: this may help us address environmental along with medical, health, industrial, and agricultural challenges.
But at the same time posing significant ethical and security questions. 
But at the same time posing significant ethical and security questions.
These changes are already outpacing our ability as politicians to regulate or control very fundamental developments in society. 
These changes are already outpacing our ability as politicians to regulate or control very fundamental developments in society.
Public reactions and political fallouts can be unpredictable. 
Public reactions and political fallouts can be unpredictable.
Another dilemma is that of openness versus inward looking policies. 
Another dilemma is that of openness versus inward looking policies.
Combatting climate change and seeking the necessary solutions, will require more international research and more mobility of ideas and people, not less. 
Combatting climate change and seeking the necessary solutions, will require more international research and more mobility of ideas and people, not less.
At the same time, the very speed of technological change is one of the things that is triggering public reactions that favor the closing of borders. 
At the same time, the very speed of technological change is one of the things that is triggering public reactions that favor the closing of borders.
Yet another issue with security implications is how regional and global power relationships will transform with the energy revolution. 
Yet another issue with security implications is how regional and global power relationships will transform with the energy revolution.
Over the next decades, oil and gas will gradually cease to be resources of the highest strategic importance. 
Over the next decades, oil and gas will gradually cease to be resources of the highest strategic importance.
This will disrupt relations within and between states, including in regions with high levels of instability. 
This will disrupt relations within and between states, including in regions with high levels of instability.
Finally, on the list of risks pertaining to technology: imagine the tensions and potential conflicts that would arise if one or more countries decide to apply geoengineering technologies in an effort to manipulate large-scale climate conditions. 
Finally, on the list of risks pertaining to technology: imagine the tensions and potential conflicts that would arise if one or more countries decide to apply geoengineering technologies in an effort to manipulate large-scale climate conditions.
Thirdly, risks associated with demographic shifts 
Thirdly, risks associated with demographic shifts
The changes driven by markets and technology will disrupt labour and welfare systems, causing social pressures. 
The changes driven by markets and technology will disrupt labour and welfare systems, causing social pressures.
Labour unions are responding to shifts in the energy sector, for example, with calls for a just transition. 
Labour unions are responding to shifts in the energy sector, for example, with calls for a just transition.
Urbanization is a welcome trend in terms of more climate friendly living with regard to housing, transport systems and other public infrastructure. 
Urbanization is a welcome trend in terms of more climate friendly living with regard to housing, transport systems and other public infrastructure.
At the same time, with more extreme weather events, rising sea levels and pressure on critical infrastructure, urban centres are increasingly vulnerable. 
At the same time, with more extreme weather events, rising sea levels and pressure on critical infrastructure, urban centres are increasingly vulnerable.
A critical factor is the growing young populations in societies under stress. 
A critical factor is the growing young populations in societies under stress.
The young and connected population in the Middle East/North Africa region is already restless. 
The young and connected population in the Middle East/North Africa region is already restless.
We saw this during the Arab spring, and the fundamentals have not changed. 
We saw this during the Arab spring, and the fundamentals have not changed.
As one of the regions that is likely to be hardest hit by climate change, we can expect more upheaval, more conflict, more refugee and migration crises. 
As one of the regions that is likely to be hardest hit by climate change, we can expect more upheaval, more conflict, more refugee and migration crises.
Climate action is of high strategic importance 
Climate action is of high strategic importance
As these examples illustrate, there is much at stake. 
As these examples illustrate, there is much at stake.
Climate change is a security challenge, and hence climate policy is of high strategic importance. 
Climate change is a security challenge, and hence climate policy is of high strategic importance.
This figure shows the long-term effect on global average surface temperature. 
This figure shows the long-term effect on global average surface temperature.
Within the high emissions scenario, the globe could be between 8 and 12 degrees warmer in 2300. 
Within the high emissions scenario, the globe could be between 8 and 12 degrees warmer in 2300.
Within a low emissions scenario, the global temperature would stabilize after 2050, as you see from the blue line. 
Within a low emissions scenario, the global temperature would stabilize after 2050, as you see from the blue line.
Climate policy matters! 
Climate policy matters!
Further climate change is, however, unavoidable in the near term, even if our follow-up of the Paris agreement turns out to be a success. 
Further climate change is, however, unavoidable in the near term, even if our follow-up of the Paris agreement turns out to be a success.
We therefore also need to prevent unavoidable climate changes from undermining security in the shorter term. 
We therefore also need to prevent unavoidable climate changes from undermining security in the shorter term.
This is in our shared self-interest. 
This is in our shared self-interest.
In a government white paper on Norwegian foreign and security policy, launched two weeks ago, we point out that climate change increases security risks and unpredictability, in particular in fragile states and regions. 
In a government white paper on Norwegian foreign and security policy, launched two weeks ago, we point out that climate change increases security risks and unpredictability, in particular in fragile states and regions.
Regions near Europe's southern border, such as the Middle East and Africa, are among the regions expected to be the hardest hit. 
Regions near Europe's southern border, such as the Middle East and Africa, are among the regions expected to be the hardest hit.
The white paper announces plans for intensified efforts in unstable countries in these regions. 
The white paper announces plans for intensified efforts in unstable countries in these regions.
Our long-term support to the stabilization of fragile states and countries in conflicts will take impacts of climate change into consideration, through measures that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. 
Our long-term support to the stabilization of fragile states and countries in conflicts will take impacts of climate change into consideration, through measures that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.
The key to minimize fragility risks is not first and foremost security policy in the strict sense. 
The key to minimize fragility risks is not first and foremost security policy in the strict sense.
It is rather "soft security" measures such as humanitarian and development aid, climate finance and adaptation, clean energy and better environmental management. 
It is rather "soft security" measures such as humanitarian and development aid, climate finance and adaptation, clean energy and better environmental management.
The Svalbard seed vault as an example 
The Svalbard seed vault as an example
Climate change will affect food production and consequently global food security in the coming decades. 
Climate change will affect food production and consequently global food security in the coming decades.
A major resource – according to IPCC - that can help us create a more climate-resilient agriculture is the genetic diversity of our agricultural plants. 
A major resource – according to IPCC - that can help us create a more climate-resilient agriculture is the genetic diversity of our agricultural plants.
This facility right around the corner, The Svalbard Global Seed Vault, provides the ultimate secure back-up of this important heritage. 
This facility right around the corner, The Svalbard Global Seed Vault, provides the ultimate secure back-up of this important heritage.
The Seed Vault was recently put to the test for the first time, as a result of the war in Syria. 
The Seed Vault was recently put to the test for the first time, as a result of the war in Syria.
It provided samples of grains and pulses to research centres in the Middle East. 
It provided samples of grains and pulses to research centres in the Middle East.
The catastrophic events in Syria made it impossible to rely on the Aleppo seed bank. 
The catastrophic events in Syria made it impossible to rely on the Aleppo seed bank.
We are happy to host this important resource for adapting to climate change. 
We are happy to host this important resource for adapting to climate change.
A global security imperative 
A global security imperative
But broadly, we do not intend to act alone. 
But broadly, we do not intend to act alone.
One key conclusion in our white paper is that Norway should develop closer security policy cooperation with European allies and the other Nordic countries. 
One key conclusion in our white paper is that Norway should develop closer security policy cooperation with European allies and the other Nordic countries.
In this new reality, NATO too must consider how to adapt to the new climate risk reality, prepare for new security challenges, and manage the unforeseen. 
In this new reality, NATO too must consider how to adapt to the new climate risk reality, prepare for new security challenges, and manage the unforeseen.
Last week, general Denis Mercier, NATO's supreme allied commander for transformation, said to Reuters that climate change poses a global security threat that all countries must fight together. 
Last week, general Denis Mercier, NATO's supreme allied commander for transformation, said to Reuters that climate change poses a global security threat that all countries must fight together.
US military leaders have long expressed the same. 
US military leaders have long expressed the same.
Last year I paid an interesting visit to the Pentagon. 
Last year I paid an interesting visit to the Pentagon.
They left no doubt that in terms of factoring risks and threats into military planning, they are dealing seriously with a range of threats that are clearly less probable than those of climate change. 
They left no doubt that in terms of factoring risks and threats into military planning, they are dealing seriously with a range of threats that are clearly less probable than those of climate change.
And so they do see climate change as an important national security challenge. 
And so they do see climate change as an important national security challenge.
This, while President Donald Trump is nearing a decision on whether to pull US out of the Paris climate deal. 
This, while President Donald Trump is nearing a decision on whether to pull US out of the Paris climate deal.
It is, frankly, an example that even in the face of very clear realities, politics can be surreal. 
It is, frankly, an example that even in the face of very clear realities, politics can be surreal.
In conclusion, Arctic climate change matters, also in a global security perspective. 
In conclusion, Arctic climate change matters, also in a global security perspective.