natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Add to this the key dimension energy provides to the number one priority in Norwegian foreign policy: the challenges and opportunities of developments in the High North.
Add to this the key dimension energy provides to the number one priority in Norwegian foreign policy: the challenges and opportunities of developments in the High North.
The High North is a laboratory of future-oriented, close political cooperation that is correcting the misplaced notion of a “race to the Arctic” and of conflict scenarios that some observers seem to put forward.
The High North is a laboratory of future-oriented, close political cooperation that is correcting the misplaced notion of a “race to the Arctic” and of conflict scenarios that some observers seem to put forward.
The UN conventions – including the Convention on the Law of the Sea – that govern relations between states in the High North in the same way as they do elsewhere in the world,
The UN conventions – including the Convention on the Law of the Sea – that govern relations between states in the High North in the same way as they do elsewhere in the world,
the advanced discourse on how to balance economic and commercial aspirations with sound resource management and environmental concerns, and
the advanced discourse on how to balance economic and commercial aspirations with sound resource management and environmental concerns, and
the constant evolution of the Arctic Council, Barents Council, and other regional organisations.
the constant evolution of the Arctic Council, Barents Council, and other regional organisations.
Slide: Map: Delimitation line, 27 April 2010.
Slide: Map: Delimitation line, 27 April 2010.
The delimitation treaty.
The delimitation treaty.
More than a hundred years ago, Stepan Makarov, the Russian admiral who had the world’s first icebreaker built, said that “Russia is a building facing north”.
More than a hundred years ago, Stepan Makarov, the Russian admiral who had the world’s first icebreaker built, said that “Russia is a building facing north”.
In 1987, a visionary President Gorbachev proposed turning the High North into an area of cooperation.
In 1987, a visionary President Gorbachev proposed turning the High North into an area of cooperation.
Slide: Signing of agreement.
Slide: Signing of agreement.
Relations with Russia.
Relations with Russia.
The treaty is now being handled by the Storting in Norway and the Duma in Russia.
The treaty is now being handled by the Storting in Norway and the Duma in Russia.
Upon ratification we will safely be able to say this: Norway and Russia have land borders from 1826, and a sea border from 2010.
Upon ratification we will safely be able to say this: Norway and Russia have land borders from 1826, and a sea border from 2010.
What was once a frozen region in more than one sense is warming up to the prospects of reaping mutual benefits through cooperation and agreements in many fields.
What was once a frozen region in more than one sense is warming up to the prospects of reaping mutual benefits through cooperation and agreements in many fields.
The Arctic is an energy resource base of potentially huge proportions.
The Arctic is an energy resource base of potentially huge proportions.
It could significantly allay concerns about energy scarcity that again seem to be driving oil prices through the roof.
It could significantly allay concerns about energy scarcity that again seem to be driving oil prices through the roof.
It is full of challenges, though, testing the limits of the state-of-the-art energy technology expertise that we have developed over more than a century.
It is full of challenges, though, testing the limits of the state-of-the-art energy technology expertise that we have developed over more than a century.
However, it is important to recognise that global warming (re: the IPCC reports, now it is happening) will lead to increased activity in the Arctic.
However, it is important to recognise that global warming (re: the IPCC reports, now it is happening) will lead to increased activity in the Arctic.
Slide: New routes for transport.
Slide: New routes for transport.
Retreating ice is opening up new commercial opportunities for shipping and petroleum activities.
Retreating ice is opening up new commercial opportunities for shipping and petroleum activities.
Many are now looking to the High North and the Arctic for new business opportunities as the ice retreats.
Many are now looking to the High North and the Arctic for new business opportunities as the ice retreats.
The journey from Yokohama in Japan to Rotterdam via the Northeast Passage is about 40% shorter (= 13 days and 20% less fuel) than the route via the Suez Canal.
The journey from Yokohama in Japan to Rotterdam via the Northeast Passage is about 40% shorter (= 13 days and 20% less fuel) than the route via the Suez Canal.
This represents huge potential for cost reductions – and less worries about pirates – although there are major challenges due to the harsh climate.
This represents huge potential for cost reductions – and less worries about pirates – although there are major challenges due to the harsh climate.
(25% shorter to the ports in South China).
(25% shorter to the ports in South China).
Example: the Nordic Barents sea journey last fall.
Example: the Nordic Barents sea journey last fall.
Our responsibility as politicians is to make sure that this new economic development does not jeopardise the future of the region.
Our responsibility as politicians is to make sure that this new economic development does not jeopardise the future of the region.
That is why we need to agree on a new, binding Polar Code that regulates shipping in Arctic waters.
That is why we need to agree on a new, binding Polar Code that regulates shipping in Arctic waters.
The High North and the Arctic are also a testing ground for finding a good balance between commercial interests and local and global environmental and resource management concerns.
The High North and the Arctic are also a testing ground for finding a good balance between commercial interests and local and global environmental and resource management concerns.
The tragic Macondo accident has put the burden of evidence on those of us who look north for further offshore extraction of oil and gas at huge depths and in extreme weather conditions.
The tragic Macondo accident has put the burden of evidence on those of us who look north for further offshore extraction of oil and gas at huge depths and in extreme weather conditions.
The US Macondo evaluation leaves little doubt about the seriousness of this challenge.
The US Macondo evaluation leaves little doubt about the seriousness of this challenge.
We have no choice but to face it up front and prove to the world that drilling for oil under extreme Arctic conditions is completely safe in terms of both security and the environment.
We have no choice but to face it up front and prove to the world that drilling for oil under extreme Arctic conditions is completely safe in terms of both security and the environment.
This would be in line with Norwegian policy during the last decades as an energy producing nation – taking one cautious step at the time based on stringent regulations and best available technology.
This would be in line with Norwegian policy during the last decades as an energy producing nation – taking one cautious step at the time based on stringent regulations and best available technology.
The architecture of regional and international organisations.
The architecture of regional and international organisations.
The Arctic Council’s role.
The Arctic Council’s role.
And in September 2010, the whole of the Northwest Passage off Canada was ice free.
And in September 2010, the whole of the Northwest Passage off Canada was ice free.
I am aware that a time span of only five years is too small to give a definitive indication of developments in the Arctic, but we can clearly see a trend.
I am aware that a time span of only five years is too small to give a definitive indication of developments in the Arctic, but we can clearly see a trend.
The ice is melting.
The ice is melting.
So, the polar areas are key to understanding global climate change.
So, the polar areas are key to understanding global climate change.
The critical levels, or tipping points, for these ecosystems are therefore of great importance.
The critical levels, or tipping points, for these ecosystems are therefore of great importance.
They will have major consequences for livelihoods, not only in the Arctic, but also on a global scale.
They will have major consequences for livelihoods, not only in the Arctic, but also on a global scale.
Slide: Text: Geopolitical change, challenges, tensions.
Slide: Text: Geopolitical change, challenges, tensions.
Geopolitical change, challenges, tensions
Geopolitical change, challenges, tensions
Now, let me move to the geopolitical scene – and let me start with eight key observations that I believe are widely shared, and then offer some comments and perspectives.
Now, let me move to the geopolitical scene – and let me start with eight key observations that I believe are widely shared, and then offer some comments and perspectives.
The seemingly unstoppable drift of global power towards the East:
The seemingly unstoppable drift of global power towards the East:
China’s rise to global power status, how India, China and other Asian dragons along with Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey are rapidly changing the rules of the game in global economic affairs as well as in the domains of politics, culture and religion and world views.
China’s rise to global power status, how India, China and other Asian dragons along with Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey are rapidly changing the rules of the game in global economic affairs as well as in the domains of politics, culture and religion and world views.
For some time this has been a phenomenon of economic performance and technological advances.
For some time this has been a phenomenon of economic performance and technological advances.
What we are now seeing is how these developments are starting to effect political fundamentals.
What we are now seeing is how these developments are starting to effect political fundamentals.
No state in history has refrained from reaping the political gains of economic and technological advances.
No state in history has refrained from reaping the political gains of economic and technological advances.
Slide: Financial crisis.
Slide: Financial crisis.
Photo: Ireland.
Photo: Ireland.
The deep ramifications of the financial crisis: a mix of hopeful signs of recovery and renewed signals of crisis from Athens, Dublin, Madrid, Lisbon and many other capitals in Europe and the rest of the world.
The deep ramifications of the financial crisis: a mix of hopeful signs of recovery and renewed signals of crisis from Athens, Dublin, Madrid, Lisbon and many other capitals in Europe and the rest of the world.
In short – a vulnerable “catch-up” period, uneven and fragile.
In short – a vulnerable “catch-up” period, uneven and fragile.
The European crisis, spurred by financial turmoil, is putting the very survival of the Euro at risk.
The European crisis, spurred by financial turmoil, is putting the very survival of the Euro at risk.
Unmanageable deficits and spiralling debts at a time when the EU is striving to assimilate new states and nurture key but still immature institutions.
Unmanageable deficits and spiralling debts at a time when the EU is striving to assimilate new states and nurture key but still immature institutions.
We need to ask, from my point of view: Will we see a more introvert EU, more focused on solving its own problems than reaching out to the world?
We need to ask, from my point of view: Will we see a more introvert EU, more focused on solving its own problems than reaching out to the world?
A critical spotlight is on the US and to the extent to which it manages to weather the storm, recharge its economy, create jobs and learn from the failures that led to the current crisis.
A critical spotlight is on the US and to the extent to which it manages to weather the storm, recharge its economy, create jobs and learn from the failures that led to the current crisis.
Not only a public debt crisis, also a private sector debt crisis – multiple deficits.
Not only a public debt crisis, also a private sector debt crisis – multiple deficits.
And then there is the wider and deeper question about the loss of US hegemony and power, a recurring issue in all presentations on today’s programme.
And then there is the wider and deeper question about the loss of US hegemony and power, a recurring issue in all presentations on today’s programme.
The unpredictability of a multi-polar world that is gradually – but rapidly – replacing first the bi-polar world of the Cold War and the subsequent unipolar world of US/Western dominance.
The unpredictability of a multi-polar world that is gradually – but rapidly – replacing first the bi-polar world of the Cold War and the subsequent unipolar world of US/Western dominance.
Brings new opportunities, but the major immediate footprint as of 2011 is one of complex uncertainty.
Brings new opportunities, but the major immediate footprint as of 2011 is one of complex uncertainty.
Example: Who will now take the lead in the crucial fight against climate change?
Example: Who will now take the lead in the crucial fight against climate change?
Sixth.
Sixth.
Perhaps the biggest threat today: Failing states and failing efforts to build trust and sustain dialogue across ideological, cultural and religious divides: Lebanon, the Palestine Territory, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Somalia.
Perhaps the biggest threat today: Failing states and failing efforts to build trust and sustain dialogue across ideological, cultural and religious divides: Lebanon, the Palestine Territory, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Somalia.
Financial turmoil and rising energy and food prices severely strain governments’ ability to meet rising expectations in already deeply troubled nations.
Financial turmoil and rising energy and food prices severely strain governments’ ability to meet rising expectations in already deeply troubled nations.
Seventh.
Seventh.
Still unresolved fight against rogue states and against global terrorism.
Still unresolved fight against rogue states and against global terrorism.
North Korea, Iran, Yemen, Sudan – North and South – Somalia, Al Qaida.
North Korea, Iran, Yemen, Sudan – North and South – Somalia, Al Qaida.
Multi-polarity and related lack of consensus on global rules of the game hampers our fight, and makes it easier for rogue actors to play responsible actors off against each other.
Multi-polarity and related lack of consensus on global rules of the game hampers our fight, and makes it easier for rogue actors to play responsible actors off against each other.
Eighth.
Eighth.
Cancun (COP16) brought us back on track, but only just.
Cancun (COP16) brought us back on track, but only just.
An effective global deal is a distant hope at the moment.
An effective global deal is a distant hope at the moment.
The business sector rightly questions governments’ ability to provide the investment framework they depend on to really become part of the solution to global warming.
The business sector rightly questions governments’ ability to provide the investment framework they depend on to really become part of the solution to global warming.
The same can be said about the inability to finally deliver on the Doha Development Round – and the failing efforts to proceed on disarmament.
The same can be said about the inability to finally deliver on the Doha Development Round – and the failing efforts to proceed on disarmament.
Now, let me move on to some perspectives on this geopolitical picture I have described.
Now, let me move on to some perspectives on this geopolitical picture I have described.
Slide: Hu visits Obama.
Slide: Hu visits Obama.
First perspective – the rise of China.
First perspective – the rise of China.
No one can help being daunted by China’s phenomenal rise (as emphasised by the first speaker this morning).
No one can help being daunted by China’s phenomenal rise (as emphasised by the first speaker this morning).
Consider the following facts: In 1820 US output per head was double that of China.
Consider the following facts: In 1820 US output per head was double that of China.
In 1980 real income per head in China was only 6% that of the US.
In 1980 real income per head in China was only 6% that of the US.
But by 2008, Chinese output per head had risen to 22% of the US figure.
But by 2008, Chinese output per head had risen to 22% of the US figure.
The question is not if, but when, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy.
The question is not if, but when, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy.
And China’s presence is increasing all over the world.
And China’s presence is increasing all over the world.
In 2011, China is lending more to developing countries than the World Bank.
In 2011, China is lending more to developing countries than the World Bank.
And it has already overtaken the US as the world’s largest producer of wind turbines.
And it has already overtaken the US as the world’s largest producer of wind turbines.
But this leads me to the second perspective – challenging the widespread assumptions of the emerging East and a focus on the vulnerability of the BRICs’ growth.
But this leads me to the second perspective – challenging the widespread assumptions of the emerging East and a focus on the vulnerability of the BRICs’ growth.
Brazil combines democratic maturity, economic growth, social improvements and societal stability.
Brazil combines democratic maturity, economic growth, social improvements and societal stability.
Impressive!
Impressive!
The same does not hold for all emerging economies.
The same does not hold for all emerging economies.
Thailand is reeling on a knife’s edge.
Thailand is reeling on a knife’s edge.
Indonesia has made significant progress, including against corruption, but achievements are vulnerable to counterattack and the balance between secular goals and the expectations of strong religious groups is difficult.
Indonesia has made significant progress, including against corruption, but achievements are vulnerable to counterattack and the balance between secular goals and the expectations of strong religious groups is difficult.
The same applies to Turkey.
The same applies to Turkey.
China looks strong and robust today, but balancing growing middle-class aspirations with societal stability in an authoritarian state is bound to create strains.
China looks strong and robust today, but balancing growing middle-class aspirations with societal stability in an authoritarian state is bound to create strains.
What we see in Egypt and Tunisia is an illustration of how vulnerable even the strongest of authoritarian rulers might appear when things start to unravel.
What we see in Egypt and Tunisia is an illustration of how vulnerable even the strongest of authoritarian rulers might appear when things start to unravel.
We tend to be somewhat “fascinated” by authoritarian states’ economic results, however, they are vulnerable – look at what is happening in Tunisia and Egypt.
We tend to be somewhat “fascinated” by authoritarian states’ economic results, however, they are vulnerable – look at what is happening in Tunisia and Egypt.
How will China and others balance dynamic performance with a strong fear of losing control?
How will China and others balance dynamic performance with a strong fear of losing control?
Vulnerability and the mass media, internet, social media.
Vulnerability and the mass media, internet, social media.
Human rights, freedom of expression.
Human rights, freedom of expression.
Nobel Peace Prize 2010.
Nobel Peace Prize 2010.
(And: How can a Nobel Peace Prize announced by a committee in Norway threaten China’s stability?)
(And: How can a Nobel Peace Prize announced by a committee in Norway threaten China’s stability?)
A third perspective – the underlying strengths of US and European economic and political organisation.
A third perspective – the underlying strengths of US and European economic and political organisation.
It is far too early to give up on US dominance in many key aspects of global power.
It is far too early to give up on US dominance in many key aspects of global power.
The US still has the world’s largest economy, the world’s leading universities and many of the world’s leading companies.
The US still has the world’s largest economy, the world’s leading universities and many of the world’s leading companies.
The US military is unrivalled.
The US military is unrivalled.
The country spends almost as much on its military as the rest of the world put together.
The country spends almost as much on its military as the rest of the world put together.
And its intangible assets – the combination of entrepreneurial flair and technological prowess – have given it a strong lead in the technological revolution.
And its intangible assets – the combination of entrepreneurial flair and technological prowess – have given it a strong lead in the technological revolution.
And do not underestimate the robustness of the political institutions of the Western world.
And do not underestimate the robustness of the political institutions of the Western world.
The ability to renew and refine political life and legitimacy, the ability mobilise alliances around key political and foreign policy goals.
The ability to renew and refine political life and legitimacy, the ability mobilise alliances around key political and foreign policy goals.
And take a closer look at the relatively weak regional institutions in these other parts of the world.
And take a closer look at the relatively weak regional institutions in these other parts of the world.
The role of civil society movements for/in democracies.
The role of civil society movements for/in democracies.
What are enlightened responses to geopolitical change?
What are enlightened responses to geopolitical change?
What are the governance options?
What are the governance options?
First, the question of global governance.
First, the question of global governance.
And the impression that international cooperation has stalled.
And the impression that international cooperation has stalled.
And that the UN is in a crisis.
And that the UN is in a crisis.
And as Klaus Schwab and Mark Malloch-Brown pointed out in Foreign Affairs: “We’re trapped in a debilitating paradox.
And as Klaus Schwab and Mark Malloch-Brown pointed out in Foreign Affairs: “We’re trapped in a debilitating paradox.
People around the world increasingly perceive their interconnectedness and interdependence.
People around the world increasingly perceive their interconnectedness and interdependence.
In principle, they recognise that this implies a need for closer international cooperation.
In principle, they recognise that this implies a need for closer international cooperation.
Yet governance at all levels – public and private as well as global, national and local – is struggling to adapt”.
Yet governance at all levels – public and private as well as global, national and local – is struggling to adapt”.
Multi-polarity and complex uncertainty increase the need for effective global governance but at the same time make it more difficult to arrive at good governance solutions.
Multi-polarity and complex uncertainty increase the need for effective global governance but at the same time make it more difficult to arrive at good governance solutions.
Effective and lasting governance solutions are not achieved in the absence of shared values, goals and political priorities.
Effective and lasting governance solutions are not achieved in the absence of shared values, goals and political priorities.
The 1990s started out with strong optimism about global governance reform and what could be achieved through international cooperation.
The 1990s started out with strong optimism about global governance reform and what could be achieved through international cooperation.