natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Firstly : As the Arctic warms and sea-ice and snow-cover retracts, this weakens surface reflectivity.
Firstly : As the Arctic warms and sea-ice and snow-cover retracts, this weakens surface reflectivity.
The bare ground and open water absorb more heat from the sun and amplify warming further, as you can see from the upper figure on this slide.
The bare ground and open water absorb more heat from the sun and amplify warming further, as you can see from the upper figure on this slide.
This feedback is an important reason why the Arctic warms at twice the rate of the global average.
This feedback is an important reason why the Arctic warms at twice the rate of the global average.
Secondly , the Arctic permafrost is a storehouse for trapped greenhouse-gases such as methane and CO2.
Secondly , the Arctic permafrost is a storehouse for trapped greenhouse-gases such as methane and CO2.
The lower figure on this slide shows the distribution of permafrost in the North.
The lower figure on this slide shows the distribution of permafrost in the North.
When the permafrost is thawing, these greenhouse-gases could be released to the atmosphere, amplifying global warming further.
When the permafrost is thawing, these greenhouse-gases could be released to the atmosphere, amplifying global warming further.
These secondary effects are adding unpredictability.
These secondary effects are adding unpredictability.
Unpredictability in terms of consequences.
Unpredictability in terms of consequences.
But also unpredictability in terms of the pace of climate change.
But also unpredictability in terms of the pace of climate change.
As we know, unpredictability means enhanced risks.
As we know, unpredictability means enhanced risks.
Arctic warming is accelerating
Arctic warming is accelerating
A new scientific assessment of climate change in the Arctic, by the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), concludes that the Arctic is now shifting — rapidly and in unexpected ways — into a new state.
A new scientific assessment of climate change in the Arctic, by the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), concludes that the Arctic is now shifting — rapidly and in unexpected ways — into a new state.
If we allow current trends to continue, they will have profound and accelerated impacts on ecosystems, human health and safety, industries and economies around the world.
If we allow current trends to continue, they will have profound and accelerated impacts on ecosystems, human health and safety, industries and economies around the world.
Certainly, this will also influence our security environment.
Certainly, this will also influence our security environment.
According to this study, Arctic temperatures are projected to continue to rise at twice the rate of the global average.
According to this study, Arctic temperatures are projected to continue to rise at twice the rate of the global average.
By 2100, models project an increase of about 5– 9°C in Arctic annual mean temperatures, depending on future emissions of greenhouse gases.
By 2100, models project an increase of about 5– 9°C in Arctic annual mean temperatures, depending on future emissions of greenhouse gases.
If we continue on our present course, Arctic winter temperatures could rise as much as 12 degrees.
If we continue on our present course, Arctic winter temperatures could rise as much as 12 degrees.
Accelerated sea level rise
Accelerated sea level rise
The study also points out that the melting of ice-caps and glaciers will accelerate as the Arctic continue to warm.
The study also points out that the melting of ice-caps and glaciers will accelerate as the Arctic continue to warm.
So will the contribution to sea level rise.
So will the contribution to sea level rise.
The minimum estimates of sea level rise by 2100 presented by the IPCC in 2013, are now nearly doubled, only four years later.
The minimum estimates of sea level rise by 2100 presented by the IPCC in 2013, are now nearly doubled, only four years later.
If increases in greenhouse gas concentrations continue at current rates, the melting would contribute at least another 25 centimeters to sea-level rise between 2006 and 2100.
If increases in greenhouse gas concentrations continue at current rates, the melting would contribute at least another 25 centimeters to sea-level rise between 2006 and 2100.
This could affect hundreds of millions of people.
This could affect hundreds of millions of people.
For a country like Bangladesh, a global sea level rise of 1 meter would mean 1,5 meters, since sea level rise is not equal across the world.
For a country like Bangladesh, a global sea level rise of 1 meter would mean 1,5 meters, since sea level rise is not equal across the world.
This map shows how 1,5 meters of sea level rise would change Bangladesh.
This map shows how 1,5 meters of sea level rise would change Bangladesh.
16 per cent of the country would disappear.
16 per cent of the country would disappear.
Tens of millions people would have to leave their homes.
Tens of millions people would have to leave their homes.
When it comes to the global impact, an effective way to grasp the possible scale of change is to imagine North America and Europe during the last ice-age.
When it comes to the global impact, an effective way to grasp the possible scale of change is to imagine North America and Europe during the last ice-age.
This is what the world looked like when global mean temperatures were 4-5 degrees lower than today.
This is what the world looked like when global mean temperatures were 4-5 degrees lower than today.
Northern Europe and Canada was covered by 2000 meters of ice.
Northern Europe and Canada was covered by 2000 meters of ice.
The rest of Europe north of the Alps and the Pyrenees, was tundra.
The rest of Europe north of the Alps and the Pyrenees, was tundra.
Nice for mammoths, but not for Bordeaux winemaking.
Nice for mammoths, but not for Bordeaux winemaking.
Climate was colder and drier.
Climate was colder and drier.
The deserts were much larger and the air much more dusty.
The deserts were much larger and the air much more dusty.
Sea level was 125 meters lower due to the large masses of water stored as ice on land.
Sea level was 125 meters lower due to the large masses of water stored as ice on land.
If we do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement, the result could be a climatological shift of similar scale, only in the opposite direction.
If we do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement, the result could be a climatological shift of similar scale, only in the opposite direction.
Try to imagine what 4-5 degrees of global warming would mean.
Try to imagine what 4-5 degrees of global warming would mean.
For the Middle East, the likely answer is "hotter, drier and nearly uninhabitable".
For the Middle East, the likely answer is "hotter, drier and nearly uninhabitable".
For Bangladesh, the answer is "partly under water".
For Bangladesh, the answer is "partly under water".
For parts of Europe, and the US, too, the predictions are disturbing.
For parts of Europe, and the US, too, the predictions are disturbing.
Loss of Arctic sea ice will impact global weather patterns
Loss of Arctic sea ice will impact global weather patterns
According to the new study, the Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free in summer by the late 2030s, earlier than projected by most climate models.
According to the new study, the Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free in summer by the late 2030s, earlier than projected by most climate models.
Recent research indicates that this could increase risk levels not only in the Arctic, but in regions very far from here.
Recent research indicates that this could increase risk levels not only in the Arctic, but in regions very far from here.
This is due to the climate system.
This is due to the climate system.
It is highly interconnected on the global scale - even more so than our security system.
It is highly interconnected on the global scale - even more so than our security system.
The Arctic region acts as a global cooling system by drawing warm ocean water from the south and cooling it down.
The Arctic region acts as a global cooling system by drawing warm ocean water from the south and cooling it down.
This movement of warmer ocean waters to the north has a major influence on climate outside the Arctic; it accounts for northern Europe’s relatively mild climate, and it keeps the Tropics cooler than they would otherwise be.
This movement of warmer ocean waters to the north has a major influence on climate outside the Arctic; it accounts for northern Europe’s relatively mild climate, and it keeps the Tropics cooler than they would otherwise be.
The rapid melting of Arctic ice and snow is likely to weaken this global cooling system, amplifying global warming, and intensifying its consequences throughout the world.
The rapid melting of Arctic ice and snow is likely to weaken this global cooling system, amplifying global warming, and intensifying its consequences throughout the world.
Several studies have linked the loss of sea ice and snow cover in the Arctic to changes in Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, floods, and winter weather patterns.
Several studies have linked the loss of sea ice and snow cover in the Arctic to changes in Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, floods, and winter weather patterns.
There is also evidence that Arctic changes may be influencing the Southeast Asian monsoons.
There is also evidence that Arctic changes may be influencing the Southeast Asian monsoons.
This evidence suggests that the loss of Arctic sea ice will progressively affect weather patterns elsewhere in the world.
This evidence suggests that the loss of Arctic sea ice will progressively affect weather patterns elsewhere in the world.
This map is from a recent study is showing disturbing possible consequences for maize yield with 30 per cent less mean annual Arctic sea ice around year 2046.
This map is from a recent study is showing disturbing possible consequences for maize yield with 30 per cent less mean annual Arctic sea ice around year 2046.
The next map shows the impact with 70 percent less sea ice, around year 2088, 70 years from now.
The next map shows the impact with 70 percent less sea ice, around year 2088, 70 years from now.
Both scenarios are based on business as usual emission pathways
Both scenarios are based on business as usual emission pathways
And these maps show the impact on wheat yield, on the same conditions.
And these maps show the impact on wheat yield, on the same conditions.
Russia would lose dramatically, but China would gain.
Russia would lose dramatically, but China would gain.
These are of course uncertain estimates, but point to the risks of climate change to global food security.
These are of course uncertain estimates, but point to the risks of climate change to global food security.
Arctic warming will amplify security risks
Arctic warming will amplify security risks
So while global warming is a multiplier of existing security risks and threats, the Arctic is an amplifier of global warming.
So while global warming is a multiplier of existing security risks and threats, the Arctic is an amplifier of global warming.
Indirectly, a warmer Arctic will indeed also amplify security risks worldwide.
Indirectly, a warmer Arctic will indeed also amplify security risks worldwide.
Let me touch on what that risk picture may look like.
Let me touch on what that risk picture may look like.
We are seeing, and will see ever more extreme weather events.
We are seeing, and will see ever more extreme weather events.
We are seeing more stress on critical ecosystems, including oceans, freshwater, and biodiversity.
We are seeing more stress on critical ecosystems, including oceans, freshwater, and biodiversity.
These changes, in turn, will have direct and indirect social, economic, political, and security effects.
These changes, in turn, will have direct and indirect social, economic, political, and security effects.
Extreme weather can trigger crop failures, wildfires, energy blackouts, infrastructure breakdown, supply-chain breakdowns, migration, and infectious disease outbreaks.
Extreme weather can trigger crop failures, wildfires, energy blackouts, infrastructure breakdown, supply-chain breakdowns, migration, and infectious disease outbreaks.
We can expect climate change to exacerbate current conditions: making hot, dry places hotter and drier, for example.
We can expect climate change to exacerbate current conditions: making hot, dry places hotter and drier, for example.
Over the longer term, global climate change will change how and where people live, where they can produce food, as well as the diseases they face.
Over the longer term, global climate change will change how and where people live, where they can produce food, as well as the diseases they face.
We know this because current climate models project long-term increases in global average surface temperatures.
We know this because current climate models project long-term increases in global average surface temperatures.
But science is increasingly concerned that more sudden, dramatic shifts could be possible.
But science is increasingly concerned that more sudden, dramatic shifts could be possible.
Such shifts in the climate or climate-linked ecosystems could have dramatic economic and ecological consequences.
Such shifts in the climate or climate-linked ecosystems could have dramatic economic and ecological consequences.
We have overwhelming evidence that dramatic shifts are not conducive to human development.
We have overwhelming evidence that dramatic shifts are not conducive to human development.
Human civilization has developed during a period of very stable global temperatures, as the blue line in the figure shows.
Human civilization has developed during a period of very stable global temperatures, as the blue line in the figure shows.
If temperatures rise rapidly, natural and human conditions will change dramatically as well.
If temperatures rise rapidly, natural and human conditions will change dramatically as well.
This unpredictability grows on you when you consider that most of the earth’s environmental and natural resource systems are under high pressure: the biodiversity crisis is less talked of than the climate crisis, but it is no less serious.
This unpredictability grows on you when you consider that most of the earth’s environmental and natural resource systems are under high pressure: the biodiversity crisis is less talked of than the climate crisis, but it is no less serious.
Protection efforts are far from keeping pace with the deterioration.
Protection efforts are far from keeping pace with the deterioration.
Moreover, there are complex interdependencies of water, food, energy, land, health, infrastructure, and labor - interdependencies that institutions in charge of single sectors will not be able to address.
Moreover, there are complex interdependencies of water, food, energy, land, health, infrastructure, and labor - interdependencies that institutions in charge of single sectors will not be able to address.
A pressing example is the fact that according to the UN, half of the world’s population will face water shortages by 2035.
A pressing example is the fact that according to the UN, half of the world’s population will face water shortages by 2035.
Rising demands from population growth, greater consumption, and agricultural production will exhaust water supplies, which will become less reliable in some regions from groundwater depletion and changing precipitation patterns.
Rising demands from population growth, greater consumption, and agricultural production will exhaust water supplies, which will become less reliable in some regions from groundwater depletion and changing precipitation patterns.
More than 30 countries — nearly half of them in the Middle East — are likely to experience extremely high water stress by 2035.
More than 30 countries — nearly half of them in the Middle East — are likely to experience extremely high water stress by 2035.
This will inevitably lead to increasing economic, social and political tensions.
This will inevitably lead to increasing economic, social and political tensions.
State fragility is exacerbated by climate change
State fragility is exacerbated by climate change
When fragile states fail or collapse, climate change can act as a risk multiplier, whether we talk of civil war or of terrorism.
When fragile states fail or collapse, climate change can act as a risk multiplier, whether we talk of civil war or of terrorism.
According to a recent report commissioned by the German Foreign Office, terrorist groups are using control of natural resources – such as water – as a weapon of war.
According to a recent report commissioned by the German Foreign Office, terrorist groups are using control of natural resources – such as water – as a weapon of war.
The scarcer resources become, the more power is given to those who control them.
The scarcer resources become, the more power is given to those who control them.
Examples include ISIS and Boko Haram.
Examples include ISIS and Boko Haram.
In Syria, the civil war and rise of Isis was propelled by one of the worst droughts in the country’s history.
In Syria, the civil war and rise of Isis was propelled by one of the worst droughts in the country’s history.
The number of internally displaced persons increased considerably before the uprising, as you see from the figure.
The number of internally displaced persons increased considerably before the uprising, as you see from the figure.
Hundreds of thousands were driven from their land, and millions were sent into poverty and food insecurity.
Hundreds of thousands were driven from their land, and millions were sent into poverty and food insecurity.
A number of studies have pointed out that the record drought that ravaged Syria in 2005 to 2010 was likely stoked by ongoing manmade climate change.
A number of studies have pointed out that the record drought that ravaged Syria in 2005 to 2010 was likely stoked by ongoing manmade climate change.
These studies are not saying the drought caused the war.
These studies are not saying the drought caused the war.
They are suggesting that it helped push conditions over the threshold into open conflict, when added to all the other stressors.
They are suggesting that it helped push conditions over the threshold into open conflict, when added to all the other stressors.
Syria is just one example of how climate change is acting as a ‘threat multiplier’ that will increase state fragility, fuel social unrest and potentially unleash violent conflict and mass migration.
Syria is just one example of how climate change is acting as a ‘threat multiplier’ that will increase state fragility, fuel social unrest and potentially unleash violent conflict and mass migration.
Climate change is not the only change we have to deal with
Climate change is not the only change we have to deal with
While the challenge of climate change is a huge one, it is not the only challenge of accelerated change we face as politicians.
While the challenge of climate change is a huge one, it is not the only challenge of accelerated change we face as politicians.
We are experiencing technological and economic changes that are increasingly hard to master for governments, and that can cause societal reactions and political shocks.
We are experiencing technological and economic changes that are increasingly hard to master for governments, and that can cause societal reactions and political shocks.
Accelerated climate change, therefore, is not only a significant risk factor in its own right - it is a factor that can interplay with and magnify other risk factors.
Accelerated climate change, therefore, is not only a significant risk factor in its own right - it is a factor that can interplay with and magnify other risk factors.
Ironically, some of these risks are triggered by actions designed to help solve climate and environmental challenges.
Ironically, some of these risks are triggered by actions designed to help solve climate and environmental challenges.
Let me touch on three broad risk areas: economic, technological and demographic.
Let me touch on three broad risk areas: economic, technological and demographic.
First, economic risks .
First, economic risks .
The globalised economy is currently challenged by a backlash from nationalist populism and protectionist forces.
The globalised economy is currently challenged by a backlash from nationalist populism and protectionist forces.
This challenge finds different expressions in different countries, but the risks to free trade and the global economy are real.
This challenge finds different expressions in different countries, but the risks to free trade and the global economy are real.
Should such risks come to pass, we would be in a weaker position to manage the economic disruption that may be caused by climate change as well as actions to combat climate change.
Should such risks come to pass, we would be in a weaker position to manage the economic disruption that may be caused by climate change as well as actions to combat climate change.
The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has pointed to climate change as a risk to financial stability, in three ways:
The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has pointed to climate change as a risk to financial stability, in three ways:
- the physical risks that arise from the increased frequency and severity of climate- and weather-related events that damage property and disrupt trade.
- the physical risks that arise from the increased frequency and severity of climate- and weather-related events that damage property and disrupt trade.
He points out that growing swathes of our economies could become uninsurable.
He points out that growing swathes of our economies could become uninsurable.
Moreover, if coverage is not maintained, he says the broader financial system would become increasingly exposed to large and variable physical risks
Moreover, if coverage is not maintained, he says the broader financial system would become increasingly exposed to large and variable physical risks
- the liability risks that we already see when some are taking action against companies on the grounds of failure to disclose the risks posed to their business models by climate change.
- the liability risks that we already see when some are taking action against companies on the grounds of failure to disclose the risks posed to their business models by climate change.
- the transition risks which could result from the adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy.
- the transition risks which could result from the adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy.
Changes in policy, technology and physical risks could prompt a reassessment of the value of a large range of assets.
Changes in policy, technology and physical risks could prompt a reassessment of the value of a large range of assets.
Just as we can have climate shocks and technological disruptions, we may also have "policy shocks" in response to dramatic climate events.
Just as we can have climate shocks and technological disruptions, we may also have "policy shocks" in response to dramatic climate events.
Secondly, technology-induced risks .
Secondly, technology-induced risks .
Combatting climate change will require faster technological change.
Combatting climate change will require faster technological change.
And indeed, technology is accelerating the pace of change around us, and in the process it is triggering new complex challenges, disruptions and tensions.
And indeed, technology is accelerating the pace of change around us, and in the process it is triggering new complex challenges, disruptions and tensions.