natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
In the remainder of the projection period, consumer prices are projected to rise at a slightly slower rate than among trading partners.
Deretter anslås en konsumprisvekst som er noe lavere enn handelspartnernes prisvekst.
Wage growth is estimated at 6 per cent between 1998 and 1999.
Lønnsveksten fra 1998 til 1999 anslås til 6 prosent.
The wage carryover from 1998 accounts for a large share of the growth in wages.
En betydelig del av denne lønnsveksten består i lønnsoverheng fra 1998.
Centrally negotiated pay increases are thus estimated to be lower in 1999 than in recent years.
Det anslås således lavere sentrale lønnstillegg i 1999 enn i de senere årene.
Wage growth is projected at 4¼ per cent in 2000.
I 2000 avtar lønnsveksten ytterligere til 4¼ prosent.
The estimates are based on the assumption that the krone exchange rate will return to its initial range in the first half of 1999.
Anslagene er basert på at kronekursen er tilbake i utgangsleiet i løpet av 1. halvår neste år.
In a commentary, Central Bank Governor Kjell Storvik states that the developments presented in the Inflation Report are consistent with a gradual return of the krone exchange rate to its initial range.
I en kommentar sier sentralbanksjef Kjell Storvik at den utvikling som er avtegnet i inflasjonsrapporten er godt i samsvar med at kronekursen etter hvert bringes tilbake til utgangsleiet.
The social partners can also make a substantial contribution to reducing the cost associated with a restructuring of the labour market by showing moderation in next year's wage settlements.
Partene i arbeidslivet kan gi et vesentlig bidrag til å redusere omstillingskostnadene i arbeidsmarkedet gjennom et moderat lønnsoppgjør neste år.
The December Inflation Report also includes medium-term projections for the Norwegian economy for the period to 2002.
Inflasjonsrapporten inneholder denne gang også perspektiver for norsk økonomi fram mot 2002.
This analysis shows that the Norwegian economy features a strong financial position, but that the economy will enter a period of restructuring with slower economic growth and lower price and wage inflation in the years ahead.
Denne analysen viser at norsk økonomi har en sterk finansiell stilling, men at økonomien vil gå gjennom en tilpasning med redusert økonomisk vekst og lavere lønns- og prisvekst i årene som kommer.
Mainland GDP growth is projected to slow to ½ per cent in 1999, followed by a contraction in mainland GDP of ¼ per cent in 2000.
Veksten i BNP for Fastlands-Norge anslås å avta til ½ prosent neste år og det ventes et fall på ¼ prosent i 2000.
The turnaround is attributed to weaker profitability in the business sector, slower growth in the world economy and a fall in fixed investment.
Svekket lønnsomhet i næringslivet, lavere vekst internasjonalt og et fall i realinvesteringene bidrar til omslaget.
As a result, price inflation and the rise in costs will edge down and the current account surplus will again match the budget surplus.
Dette vil resultere i at pris- og kostnadsveksten avtar og overskuddet på driftsbalansen blir igjen like stort som budsjettoverskuddet.
The projections indicate that demand and output growth will pick up from 2001 following this period of restructuring.
Anslagene peker i retning av at etterspørsels- og produksjonsveksten etter denne tilpasningen vil ta seg noe opp igjen fra og med 2001.
This is in keeping with Norges Bank's advice to the Ministry of Finance.
Dette var i samsvar med Norges Banks råd til Finansdepartementet.
The euro will be set at 1:1 against the ECU on the changeover date.
Når euro innføres som en ny valuta, blir kursforholdet mellom euro og ECU satt lik 1:1 på overgangstidspunktet.
The current guidelines can thus be maintained without any change in the international value of the krone, and the krone's initial range against European currencies will continue to apply.
Videreføring av gjeldende retningslinjer kan dermed skje uten at kronens internasjonale verdi endres, og kronens utgangsleie mot europeiske valutaer vil fortsatt gjelde.
Norges Bank has issued a new regulation for the Bank's quotation of market exchange rates, which will apply from the changeover to the euro.
Norges Bank har fastsatt ny forskrift for bankens notering av markedskurser ved innføringen av euro.
The circular relating to the regulation can be obtained from Norges Bank.
Rundskrivet om forskriften fås ved henvendelse til Norges Bank.
Address by Deputy Governor Jarle Bergo at a conference arranged by Pareto Securities in Oslo, 27 March 2003
Address by Deputy Governor Jarle Bergo at a conference arranged by Pareto Securities in Oslo, 27 March 2003
The Government has defined an inflation target for monetary policy in Norway.
The Government has defined an inflation target for monetary policy in Norway.
The operational objective is an inflation rate of 2 ½ per cent over time.
The operational objective is an inflation rate of 2 ½ per cent over time.
The krone is floating.
The krone is floating.
We no longer have an exchange rate target.
We no longer have an exchange rate target.
Exchange rate fluctuations influence consumer price inflation through several channels:
Exchange rate fluctuations influence consumer price inflation through several channels:
Meanwhile, the exchange rate movements only affect the enterprises' margins.
Meanwhile, the exchange rate movements only affect the enterprises' margins.
Third, markets with monopolistic competition will often be subject to strategic price setting.
Third, markets with monopolistic competition will often be subject to strategic price setting.
Imported consumer goods account for about 20 per cent of the CPI adjusted for specific taxes.
Imported consumer goods account for about 20 per cent of the CPI adjusted for specific taxes.
In the sub-index model, we have estimated separate equations for around 10 sub-indices of the CPI.
In the sub-index model, we have estimated separate equations for around 10 sub-indices of the CPI.
In the more comprehensive macroeconomic RIMINI model of Norges Bank, the exchange rate operates through a broader range of import prices.
In the more comprehensive macroeconomic RIMINI model of Norges Bank, the exchange rate operates through a broader range of import prices.
This may indicate that the RIMINI model to some extent overestimates the effects.
This may indicate that the RIMINI model to some extent overestimates the effects.
The estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty.
The estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty.
First, there is model- uncertainty.
First, there is model- uncertainty.
The models are estimated using data from a period dominated by a monetary policy regime with a fixed exchange rate.
The models are estimated using data from a period dominated by a monetary policy regime with a fixed exchange rate.
New Zealand, Australia and Canada have experienced wide exchange rate fluctuations in recent years.
New Zealand, Australia and Canada have experienced wide exchange rate fluctuations in recent years.
Second, there is uncertainty about the timing of the pass-through.
Second, there is uncertainty about the timing of the pass-through.
The two models indicate that the effects are strongest after two years.
The two models indicate that the effects are strongest after two years.
However, these estimates are based on a long-lasting appreciation.
However, these estimates are based on a long-lasting appreciation.
The value of the Norwegian krone will vary, as most exchange rates do.
The value of the Norwegian krone will vary, as most exchange rates do.
The exchange rate may also act as an automatic stabiliser.
The exchange rate may also act as an automatic stabiliser.
Sentiments in the foreign exchange market may at times be excessively positive towards a currency while at other times they are overly negative.
Sentiments in the foreign exchange market may at times be excessively positive towards a currency while at other times they are overly negative.
What causes exchange rate movements?
What causes exchange rate movements?
In the long run exchange rates reflect economic fundamentals.
In the long run exchange rates reflect economic fundamentals.
When PPP holds, the real exchange rate is a constant in the long run.
When PPP holds, the real exchange rate is a constant in the long run.
Movements in the real exchange rate represent deviations from PPP.
Movements in the real exchange rate represent deviations from PPP.
The view of the PPP as a long-term international parity condition is supported by recent empirical literature testing the validity of the PPP hypothesis.
The view of the PPP as a long-term international parity condition is supported by recent empirical literature testing the validity of the PPP hypothesis.
This relationship has been robust even with considerable changes in economic policy over the years.
This relationship has been robust even with considerable changes in economic policy over the years.
Within this horizon, several factors may affect the exchange rate.
Within this horizon, several factors may affect the exchange rate.
Generally these factors are outside the control of the central bank.
Generally these factors are outside the control of the central bank.
Commodity-exporting countries tend to experience wide fluctuations in their exchange rate.
Commodity-exporting countries tend to experience wide fluctuations in their exchange rate.
Australia is one example, and New Zealand another.
Australia is one example, and New Zealand another.
The exchange rate thus serves as a buffer against changes in the terms of trade.
The exchange rate thus serves as a buffer against changes in the terms of trade.
Oil and gas account for the largest share of Norwegian exports.
Oil and gas account for the largest share of Norwegian exports.
A substantial portion of the revenues from the sale of oil and gas is invested in foreign equities and bonds through the Government Petroleum Fund.
A substantial portion of the revenues from the sale of oil and gas is invested in foreign equities and bonds through the Government Petroleum Fund.
The Petroleum Fund thus relieves pressure on the krone exchange rate.
The Petroleum Fund thus relieves pressure on the krone exchange rate.
Nevertheless, fluctuations occur.
Nevertheless, fluctuations occur.
The trade-weighted krone appreciated by around 20 per cent from May 2000 until January 2003.
The trade-weighted krone appreciated by around 20 per cent from May 2000 until January 2003.
The appreciation was particularly pronounced through 2002.
The appreciation was particularly pronounced through 2002.
The appreciation was the subject of media headlines and caused concerns among exporters.
The appreciation was the subject of media headlines and caused concerns among exporters.
Importers were more subdued in their comments.
Importers were more subdued in their comments.
Since end-January the krone has depreciated by around 4 per cent.
Since end-January the krone has depreciated by around 4 per cent.
How do we explain the strong appreciation of the krone in the period between summer 2000 and January 2003?
How do we explain the strong appreciation of the krone in the period between summer 2000 and January 2003?
Foreign interest rates fell while Norwegian interest rates remained high.
Foreign interest rates fell while Norwegian interest rates remained high.
This boosted demand for the Norwegian krone.
This boosted demand for the Norwegian krone.
As a consequence, many investors wanted to shift portfolios from equities to interest-bearing securities.
As a consequence, many investors wanted to shift portfolios from equities to interest-bearing securities.
Oil prices rose markedly from the end of 2001.
Oil prices rose markedly from the end of 2001.
Market participants point out that, ceteris paribus, higher oil prices make the Norwegian krone more attractive.
Market participants point out that, ceteris paribus, higher oil prices make the Norwegian krone more attractive.
During turbulent periods, investors seek out safe investments.
During turbulent periods, investors seek out safe investments.
Traditionally, such investments have been gold, the Swiss franc and the US dollar.
Traditionally, such investments have been gold, the Swiss franc and the US dollar.
The model is estimated using monthly data from July 1999 to January 2003 and fits actual developments rather well.
The model is estimated using monthly data from July 1999 to January 2003 and fits actual developments rather well.
The model is well-specified judged by standard criteria.
The model is well-specified judged by standard criteria.
The t-statistics of the estimated coefficients are generally high.
The t-statistics of the estimated coefficients are generally high.
Accordingly, the standard deviation of the residuals is quite low.
Accordingly, the standard deviation of the residuals is quite low.
The focus of attention, or "themes", in foreign exchange markets shifts over time.
The focus of attention, or "themes", in foreign exchange markets shifts over time.
The autumn of 1998 was marked by turbulence in international financial markets.
The autumn of 1998 was marked by turbulence in international financial markets.
In the last half of the 1990s, capital flows were heavily influenced by investor focus on stock market returns.
In the last half of the 1990s, capital flows were heavily influenced by investor focus on stock market returns.
These factors contributed because the interest rate differential was positive.
These factors contributed because the interest rate differential was positive.
The factors make a varying contribution over time.
The factors make a varying contribution over time.
At that time, oil prices started to increase.
At that time, oil prices started to increase.
According to the model, higher oil prices can explain about 35 per cent of the appreciation between December 2001 and January 2003.
According to the model, higher oil prices can explain about 35 per cent of the appreciation between December 2001 and January 2003.
The interest rate effect increased markedly between March 2000 and January 2003.
The interest rate effect increased markedly between March 2000 and January 2003.
The model fits the historical data very well.
The model fits the historical data very well.
Looking backwards, the model tells a sensible story.
Looking backwards, the model tells a sensible story.
However it should be kept in mind that although the model fits historical data very well, it is not necessarily suitable for forecasting purposes.
However it should be kept in mind that although the model fits historical data very well, it is not necessarily suitable for forecasting purposes.
This is certainly not easy.
This is certainly not easy.
Exchange rate movements are important in determining future inflation.
Exchange rate movements are important in determining future inflation.
We need to take account of this in our inflation projections.
We need to take account of this in our inflation projections.
But what should be our point of departure with regard to the exchange rate assumption?
But what should be our point of departure with regard to the exchange rate assumption?
Unfortunately, as we have seen, such models are not easily available.
Unfortunately, as we have seen, such models are not easily available.
This would imply more fluctuations in demand and production.
This would imply more fluctuations in demand and production.
Alternatively, the exchange rate assumption could be based on economic theory.
Alternatively, the exchange rate assumption could be based on economic theory.
Norges Bank's projections must be understood as conditional on these assumptions.
Norges Bank's projections must be understood as conditional on these assumptions.
In the course of 2004 and 2005, the effect would gradually be reduced.
In the course of 2004 and 2005, the effect would gradually be reduced.
In this scenario, inflation could reach 2¼ per cent two years ahead.
In this scenario, inflation could reach 2¼ per cent two years ahead.
Looking beyond the two-year horizon, inflation might edge up further.
Looking beyond the two-year horizon, inflation might edge up further.
By using different technical assumptions, we indicated different paths for inflation.
By using different technical assumptions, we indicated different paths for inflation.
Actual developments may, however, deviate from both paths.
Actual developments may, however, deviate from both paths.
Norges Bank has reduced the sight deposit rate from 7 to 5.5 per cent since 11 December.
Norges Bank has reduced the sight deposit rate from 7 to 5.5 per cent since 11 December.
Monetary policy has been relaxed.
Monetary policy has been relaxed.
Relationships in the foreign exchange market are unstable.
Relationships in the foreign exchange market are unstable.
Experience has shown that monetary authorities do not have the means to control the exchange rate.
Experience has shown that monetary authorities do not have the means to control the exchange rate.
PPP in the medium run despite oil shocks: The case of Norway.
PPP in the medium run despite oil shocks: The case of Norway.
Factors that influence the krone exchange rate, Economic Bulletin 4/2000
Factors that influence the krone exchange rate, Economic Bulletin 4/2000
Empirical research on nominal exchange rates.
Empirical research on nominal exchange rates.
3, Amsterdam, North Holland
3, Amsterdam, North Holland
Norges Bank (2003).
Norges Bank (2003).
Inflation Report 1/2003
Inflation Report 1/2003
Norges Bank (2002).
Norges Bank (2002).
Charts in pdf
Charts in pdf
1 See also the box in Norges Bank's Inflation Report 2/2002: "How does the krone exchange rate influence the CPI?", page 32-33
1 See also the box in Norges Bank's Inflation Report 2/2002: "How does the krone exchange rate influence the CPI?", page 32-33
2See Sarno and Taylor (2002), Chapter 3, page 87
2See Sarno and Taylor (2002), Chapter 3, page 87
3See Akram (2002)
3See Akram (2002)
4The GHI is derived from prices for currency options (implied volatility) for the euro, the US dollar and Japanese yen.
4The GHI is derived from prices for currency options (implied volatility) for the euro, the US dollar and Japanese yen.
The GHI falls when expected volatility between major currencies is reduced.
The GHI falls when expected volatility between major currencies is reduced.
See Bernhardsen and Røisland (2000) for a further description of the GHI.
See Bernhardsen and Røisland (2000) for a further description of the GHI.
6See Frankel and Rose (1995), Chapter 1.3
6See Frankel and Rose (1995), Chapter 1.3
Norges Bank supports the Banking Law Commission's view that it is essential to establish a comprehensive and coherent regulation applicable to all financial undertakings.
Norges Bank støtter Banklovkommisjonens syn på viktigheten av å få en samlet og enhetlig regulering av alle finansforetak.
Furthermore, the central bank is of the view that there may be a need for separate regulation of the insurance industry in some areas, as referred to in Norges Bank's submission on the Banking Law Commission's proposal relating to a new law on financial undertakings.
Samtidig fremhever sentralbanken at det kan være behov for særskilt regulering av forsikringsnæringen på enkelte områder, går det fram av Norges Banks høringsuttalelse om Banklovkommisjonens forslag om ny lov om finansforetak.
The regulatory framework for financial undertakings is of crucial importance for developments in the financial industry.
Regelverket for finansforetakene har stor betydning for utviklingen i finansnæringen.
It is important that a forward-looking regulatory framework is established, which provides the industry with stable operating parameters.
Det er derfor viktig at en nå kommer fram til et regelverk som er fremtidsrettet og som sikrer stabile rammebetingelser for næringen.
Norges Bank places particular emphasis on achieving a framework that promotes efficient and sound institutions and sufficient competition in the market.
Norges Bank er særlig opptatt av at regelverket legger forholdene til rette for effektive og solide institusjoner og tilstrekkelig konkurranse i markedet.
Furthermore, emphasis must be placed on drawing up regulations in Norway that are in line with what is commonly applied internationally.
Videre må hensynet til at norsk regelverk er på linje med det som er vanlig internasjonalt tillegges vekt.
Acquisition rules should be more flexible It is Norges Bank's view that the authorities, through both the formulation of the regulations and practice, should be less restrictive with regard to preventing structural changes and adaptations which the industry itself deems appropriate.
Regelverket for oppkjøp bør bli mer fleksibelt Etter Norges Banks vurdering bør myndighetene, gjennom både utformingen av regelverket og praktiseringen av det, være tilbakeholdne med å hindre strukturendringer og tilpasninger som næringen selv finner hensiktsmessige.
Unnecessary restraints on the institutions' freedom of manoeuvre could contribute to weakening their profitability and financial soundness in the long term.
En unødig innsnevring av institusjonenes handlingsrom kan bidra til å svekke deres lønnsomhet og soliditet på lang sikt.
Norges Bank supports the Commission's proposal to allow acquisitions provided prior acceptance is acquired from at least two-thirds of the owners.
Norges Bank støtter kommisjonens forslag om at det skal kunne gis konsesjon for oppkjøp dersom det er innhentet forhåndsaksept fra minst to tredjedeler av eierne.
This would avoid a situation whereby a small minority could block acquisitions that are supported by a very clear majority of shareholders.
Dermed kan en unngå situasjoner der et lite mindretall blokkerer for oppkjøp som har støtte fra en meget klar majoritet av aksjonærene.
Moreover, such a change may contribute to promoting necessary structural changes.
Videre kan en slik endring legge forholdene bedre til rette for nødvendige strukturendringer.
Furthermore, Norges Bank supports the Commission's proposal to allow ownership shares corresponding to 30 per cent of the capital or votes in financial undertakings to be owned by another financial undertaking as part of a strategic alliance between undertakings.
Norges Bank støtter også kommisjonens forslag om at det skal kunne gis tillatelse til at eierandeler svarende til inntil 30 prosent av kapitalen eller stemmene i et finansforetak eies av et annet finansforetak som ledd i en strategisk samarbeidsavtale mellom foretakene.
It is important that the regulations provide for necessary flexibility and that they do not prevent co-operation or alliances, provided that this is not anti-competitive, among other things.
Det er viktig at regelverket har den nødvendige fleksibilitet og ikke er til hinder for samarbeid eller allianser, gitt at det ikke er betenkelig bl.a. fra et konkurransemessig synspunkt.
As the Commission proposes a relaxation of the rules referred to above, Norges Bank will support the proposal to maintain the statutory ownership limit of 10 per cent as a main rule.
Ettersom kommisjonen foreslår å myke opp regelverket på punktene over, vil Norges Bank etter en samlet vurdering støtte forslaget om å opprettholde eierbegrensningsregelen på 10 prosent i normaltilfellet.
Capital adequacy rules for insurance companies should be evaluated more closely Norges Bank supports the minority proposal to revise the rules on capital adequacy for insurance companies.
Kapitaldekning i forsikringsselskaper bør vurderes nærmere Norges Bank støtter mindretallets forslag om å endre reglene om kapitaldekning for forsikringsselskapene.
The Banking Law Commission was mandated to harmonise as far as possible the rules for various groups of institutions.
Banklovkommisjonen ble i sitt mandat bedt om å innføre mest mulig like regler for forskjellige institusjonsgrupper.
A simplification of the regulations must, however, take into account the particular features of the industry.
Reguleringsmessig enkelhet må imidlertid balanseres mot særtrekk ved næringen.
If the activity is not the same, Norges Bank is of the view that the regulations do not necessarily have to be the same.
Dersom virksomheten ikke er lik, mener Norges Bank at reguleringen ikke nødvendigvis må være lik.