natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
The GPFG features a very long investment horizon and a sizeable capacity to bear short-term risk.
Fondet har en særlig lang tidshorisont og en betydelig evne til å bære kortsiktig risiko.
This is why the chosen allocation to equities is relatively high.
Dette ligger bak valget av en forholdsvis høy aksjeandel.
It is also the reason why the GPFG has moved into real estate.
Det er også grunnen til at fondet har gått inn i eiendom.
Looking ahead, we should also consider whether the allocation to real assets should be increased at the expense of bonds.
Fremover bør vi vurdere om andelen av fondet som er investert i realaktiva, skal øke på bekostning av obligasjoner.
Historically, equities have yielded higher returns than bonds.
Historisk har aksjeinvesteringer gitt høyere avkastning enn plasseringer i obligasjoner.
We also expect that to be the case ahead.
Det venter vi at de også vil gjøre fremover.
But it is doubtful that equity prices will continue to rise at the same pace as in recent years.
Men det er tvilsomt om aksjekursene vil fortsette å stige i samme takt som de har gjort de siste årene.
Weak or moderate growth in the real economy will feed through to the return on equities.
Svak eller moderat vekst i realøkonomien vil etter hvert smitte over i avkastningen på aksjer.
So far, the GPFG has earned an annual real return of 3.8 percent.
Så langt har fondet oppnådd en årlig realavkastning på 3,8 prosent.
We must be prepared for the possibility that it will be lower, perhaps below 3 percent.
Vi må være forberedt på at den kan bli lavere – kanskje under 3 prosent.
Chart 13: Petroleum revenues and petroleum revenue spending
Figur: Oljeinntekter og oljepengebruk
Since the turn of the millennium, the government has received substantial revenues from the petroleum sector.
Siden årtusenskiftet har staten mottatt store inntekter fra oljevirksomheten.
A large share has been saved and transferred to the GPFG.
Mye er spart og overført til oljefondet.
At the same time, the spending of petroleum revenues over the fiscal budget has increased.
Samtidig har bruken av oljeinntekter over statsbudsjettet økt.
The revenue stream from the continental shelf is now declining.
Inntektsstrømmen fra sokkelen er nå på vei ned.
We are approaching the point where government spending of petroleum revenues will exceed the revenues deriving from the petroleum sector.
Vi er i ferd med å nærme oss det punktet hvor statens bruk av oljepenger overstiger inntektene fra oljevirksomheten.
Chart 14: Transfers to GPFG and dividend, interest and rental income
Figur: Tilførsel til SPU og utbytte-, rente- og leieinntekter
Over the past ten years, substantial amounts, about NOK 250 billion a year on average, have been transferred to the GPFG.
De siste ti årene er fondet tilført store beløp, om lag 250 milliarder kroner i årlig gjennomsnitt.
Next year, it may be necessary to spend some of the return to cover the non-oil budget deficit.
Neste år kan det bli behov for å bruke av avkastningen for å dekke det oljekorrigerte underskuddet på statsbudsjettet.
The GPFG is nearing the peak
Fondet er nær toppen
The decline in oil revenues ahead gives rise to new challenges for the Norwegian economy.
Med lavere oljeinntekter fremover stilles norsk økonomi overfor nye utfordringer.
But we must not forget that we have a good starting point.
Men vi skal ikke glemme at utgangspunktet er godt.
During a period of high oil prices, we have transformed oil in the ground into financial wealth.
I en periode med høye oljepriser har vi omformet olje i bakken til en finansiell formue.
We have avoided making public sector budgets dependent on volatile income.
Vi har unngått å gjøre offentlige budsjetter avhengige av flyktige inntekter.
The GPFG and the fiscal rule have been the main elements of the policy pursued.
Oljefondet og handlingsregelen for bruk av oljepenger har vært bærebjelkene for politikken som har vært ført.
Let me recall the background for the fiscal rule.
Jeg har lyst til å minne om bakgrunnen for denne retningslinjen for finanspolitikken.
The fiscal rule emerged from the economic discussion around the turn of the millennium.
Handlingsregelen sprang ut av den økonomiske diskusjonen rundt tusenårsskiftet.
It was demanding to restrain spending, while it was clear that future pension obligations would be substantial.
Samtidig som det var krevende å holde igjen på pengebruken, var det klart at store pensjonsforpliktelser ventet lenger fremme.
The fiscal rule provided us with a long-term strategy for spending petroleum revenues.
Med handlingsregelen fikk vi en langsiktig strategi for bruk av oljepengene.
Even though most of the income was to be saved, the rule provided for increased spending of petroleum wealth.
Selv om mesteparten av inntektene skulle spares, ble det åpnet for økt bruk av petroleumsformuen.
The phasing-in of petroleum revenues was to be adapted to the economic cycle and be in line with the expected real return over time.
Innfasingen av oljeinntekter skulle tilpasses konjunkturene, og over tid være i tråd med forventet realavkastning av fondet.
The capital was to be preserved so that it would also benefit future generations.
Hovedstolen skulle skjermes, slik at også fremtidige generasjoner kunne nyte godt av fondet.
Fiscal policy was not set on autopilot.
Finanspolitikken ble ikke satt på autopilot.
The rule was simple, but flexible.
Regelen var enkel, men fleksibel.
This has been one of its strong points.
Det har vært mye av dens styrke.
In the initial years under the fiscal rule, petroleum revenue spending rose approximately in pace with the GPFG's capital.
De første årene med handlingsregelen steg bruken av oljepenger om lag i takt med fondskapitalen.
The fiscal rule, based on a real return of 4 percent, thereby provided an effective constraint on petroleum revenue spending over the fiscal budget.
Den langsiktige regelen, basert på en realavkastning på 4 prosent, ga dermed en effektiv begrensning på bruken av oljeinntekter over statsbudsjettet.
In recent years, high oil prices and solid returns have resulted in strong growth in the value of the GPFG.
De siste årene har høye oljepriser og god avkastning gitt en kraftig vekst i fondet.
This has provided scope for substantial increases in petroleum revenue spending, although spending has been around 3 percent of the GPFG's value in recent years.
Dette har gitt rom for betydelige økninger i oljepengebruken, selv om bruken i det siste har tilsvart om lag 3 prosent av fondets verdi.
In a period of low unemployment and solid economic growth, it has been appropriate to set aside a greater share of the revenues.
I en periode med lav ledighet og god vekst i økonomien har det vært fornuftig å sette mer av inntektene til side.
Volatility on the world's stock exchanges and in financial markets impacts the market value of the GPFG and thereby the anchor for fiscal policy.
Svingninger på verdens børser og finansmarkeder slår gjennom i markedsverdien av fondet og dermed i det ankeret som gjelder for finanspolitikken.
Although the depreciation of the krone has increased the GPFG's current value in krone terms, this veils the fact that its international purchasing power is unaffected by changes in the krone's value.
Svekkelsen av kronekursen har økt dagens kroneverdi av fondet, men dette tilslører at den internasjonale kjøpekraften er upåvirket av endringer i kronens verdi.
Such volatility has become more difficult to manage as the GPFG has grown in size.
Slike utslag er blitt mer krevende å håndtere etter hvert som fondet har vokst.
Oil prices have fallen sharply over the past six months.
Fallet i oljeprisen det siste halvåret har vært betydelig.
Even if prices edge up again, we have been reminded of the uncertainty associated with future revenues.
Selv om prisen skulle komme noe opp igjen, har vi fått en påminning om usikkerheten knyttet til fremtidige inntekter.
Lower oil prices imply slower growth in the GPFG than previously estimated.
Lavere oljepriser innebærer at fondet vil vokse langsommere enn tidligere anslått.
At an oil price of around USD 60 per barrel, transfers to the GPFG may come to a halt.
Basert på oljepriser rundt 60 dollar per fat kan tilførselen til fondet stoppe opp.
Rather, it seems that at today's level of petroleum revenue spending there will soon be a need to make transfers from the GPFG to the fiscal budget.
Med dagens nivå på bruken av oljepenger ser det snarere ut til at det raskt vil bli behov for overføring fra oljefondet til statsbudsjettet.
Measured as a share of GDP, the GPFG may have already reached the peak.
Målt som andel av nasjonalproduktet kan fondet allerede ha nådd toppen.
Chart 15: Different return scenarios for the GPFG
Figur: Ulike baner for fondsavkastningen
Calculations in the National Budget for 2015 illustrate this point.
Beregninger fra Nasjonalbudsjettet 2015 er egnet til å illustrere dette poenget.
The broken red line shows the trajectory for fiscal space assuming a real return of 4 percent.
Den stiplede linjen viser hvordan handlingsrommet for budsjettet utvikler seg gitt en forutsetning om 4 prosent realavkastning.
The estimation is based on the oil price level prevailing late last summer.
Beregningen bygger på oljeprisnivået fra sensommeren i fjor.
If the return is closer to 3 percent, there will be little room for increasing petroleum revenue spending over the fiscal budget.
Blir avkastningen nærmere 3 prosent, er det begrenset rom for å øke bruken av oljepenger over statsbudsjettet.
On the contrary, in the course of a few decades, petroleum revenue spending as a share of GDP will have to be reduced, that is to say fiscal policy will have to be tightened.
I løpet av et par tiår vil det tvert i mot være behov for å redusere bruken som andel av BNP, det vil si å stramme inn i finanspolitikken.
If, in addition, the oil price settles more permanently around the level observed so far this year, fiscal policy must be adjusted earlier.
Skulle oljeprisen i tillegg på mer varig basis legge seg nær det nivået vi har sett hittil i år, må tilpasningen i finanspolitikken fremskyndes.
If petroleum revenue spending follows the real return, we will be heading for a period of sizeable fiscal retrenchment each year.
Hvis bruken av oljepenger følger realavkastningen, står vi i så fall foran en periode med merkbare innstramminger i budsjettet, år for år.
In addition, pension obligations will show a pronounced rise further ahead.
Samtidig vil pensjonsforpliktelsene etter hvert øke betydelig.
The fall in oil prices has been a reminder of the uncertainty surrounding future petroleum revenues.
Oljeprisfallet har minnet oss om at utviklingen i oljeinntektene fremover er usikker.
The same applies to the return on GPFG capital.
Det samme er avkastningen på fondskapitalen.
The three paths illustrate the uncertainty we are facing, but they also illustrate another important point.
De tre banene understreker usikkerheten vi står overfor, men de illustrerer også et annet viktig poeng.
Spending the return will ultimately lead to a flattening of the GPFG, which will then decline as a percentage of GDP.
Deretter vil fondet avta som andel av verdiskapingen.
What is new is that this may be the case here and now.
Det nye er at denne problemstillingen kan være aktuell her og nå.
At today's oil price, the GPFG may have reached the peak.
Med oljepriser på dagens nivå kan fondet ha nådd toppen.
In that case, petroleum revenue spending as a percentage of GDP must be reduced to avoid using more than the return on the GPFG.
I så fall er det behov for å redusere bruken av oljepenger som andel av BNP hvis man vil unngå å bruke mer enn avkastningen.
Even if the oil price and the rate of return follow a path that allows the GPFG to grow for a period ahead, petroleum revenue spending should be restrained.
Skulle oljepris og avkastning utvikle seg slik at fondet fortsetter å vokse en stund til, bør man likevel holde igjen på pengebruken.
By keeping spending well below the upper bound, the need for fiscal retrenchment further ahead can be reduced.
Ved å skjære gjennom toppen, reduseres behovet for senere innstramming.
The fiscal rule has functioned as a long-term guideline for fiscal policy for nearly 15 years.
Handlingsregelen har fungert som en langsiktig rettesnor for finanspolitikken i snart 15 år.
It has served its purpose.
Den har tjent hensikten.
The time has now come to show restraint.
Nå er det behov for å stoppe opp.
A sensible risk adjustment is now to refrain from increasing petroleum revenue spending further from today's level.
En fornuftig tilpasning til risiko er at man ikke sikter mot å øke bruken av oljeinntekter videre fra dagens nivå.
The era of rising petroleum revenue spending may be behind us.
Epoken med opptrapping av bruken av oljeinntekter kan ligge bak oss.
The more than forty-year-old white paper on the role of the petroleum industry in Norwegian society was far-sighted and proved to be on the mark.
Den mer enn førti år gamle stortingsmeldingen om petroleumsvirksomhetens plass i det norske samfunn var både fremsynt og treffsikker.
The development of an advanced oil service industry is an industrial adventure in its own right.
Utviklingen av en avansert leverandørnæring er et industrieventyr.
The oil age is far from over.
Oljealderen er langt fra over.
But activity in the petroleum sector has passed the peak.
Men aktiviteten i oljenæringen er over toppen.
In addition, we must be prepared for lower returns in the oil industry.
I tillegg må vi være forberedt på at virksomheten kaster mindre av seg.
The white paper also provides a glimpse into a time when belief in government intervention in the economy was far greater than today.
25 gir oss innblikk i en tid da troen på statlige inngrep i det økonomiske livet var langt større enn i dag.
That regulatory optimism has diminished significantly.
Styringsoptimismen er betydelig redusert.
We are left with an important recognition: The key to economic progress is the ability to restructure.
Tilbake står en viktig erkjennelse: Det er evnen til omstilling som er nøkkelen til økonomisk fremgang.
"It is not true that the sea is faithless, for it has never promised anything..."
«Det er ikke sant at havet er troløst; for det har aldri lovet noe...».
Where our journey takes us is our own responsibility.
Vi må selv ta ansvar for hvor vi havner.
1 Alexander Kielland (1880): Garman & Worse (Translation by W.W. Kettlewell).
1 Alexander Kielland (1880): Garman og Worse
2 Estimate based on calculations in Blix Prestmo, Strøm and Midsem (2015): Ringvirkninger av petroleumsnæringen i norsk økonomi [Spillovers from the petroleum industry to the Norwegian economy].
2 Anslaget bygger på beregninger i Blix Prestmo, Strøm og Midsem (2015): Ringvirkninger av petroleumsnæringen i norsk økonomi.
Forthcoming report from Statistics Norway.
Kommer som rapport fra Statistisk sentralbyrå.
Petroleum-related exports from mainland Norway are also included.
I tillegg er eksport fra fastlandsøkonomien som er knyttet til oljevirksomheten, regnet med.
3 Share of home-owning households.
3 Andel av husholdningene som eier bolig.
Debt is here defined as gross debt less bankdeposits.
Gjeld er her definert som bruttogjeld fratrukket bankinnskudd.
4 Including reserves that have been approved for development by holders of oil rights and other proven resources in fields and discoveries.
4 Inkluderer reserver som er vedtatt utbygd av rettighetshaverne og øvrige påviste ressurser i felt og funn.
Source: The shelf in 2014, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
Kilde: Sokkelåret 2014, Oljedirektoratet
Speech by Governor Øystein Olsen at the University of Oslo on 25 February 2015.
Foredrag av sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen på Universitetet i Oslo, 25 februar 2015.
To commemorate this event, Norges Bank has decided to issue a special edition 20-krone circulation coin.
Norges Bank har besluttet å utgi en 20-krone sirkulasjonsmynt med spesialpreg for å markere denne begivenheten.
The Sámi woman Elsa Laula Renberg organised the first international Sami conference in Norway.
Samekvinnen Elsa Laula Renberg arrangerte det første landsdekkende samemøtet i Norge.
This event is also the reason 6 February is celebrated as Sami National Day.
Begivenheten er også grunnlaget for at den 6. februar feires som Samenes Nasjonaldag.
The date on which the coin will be issued will be determined at a later time.
Tidspunkt for utgivelse av mynten blir fastsatt senere.
Therese Riiser Wålen, Assistant Director of Communications and External Relations Tel.
Therese Riiser Wålen, Assisterende direktør Kommunikasjon Tlf.
+47 22 31 68 45 / +47 94 05 08 86
22 31 68 45 / 94 05 08 86
Norges Bank will sell foreign exchange equivalent to NOK 700 million per day in connection with the transfers to the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) in March 2015.
Noregs Bank vil selje valuta tilsvarande 700 millionar kroner kvar dag samband med avsettinga til Statens pensjonsfond utland (SPU) i mars 2015.
Norges Bank aims for the petroleum buffer portfolio to be between NOK 5 billion and NOK 10 billion at the end of each year.
Noregs Bank sikter mot at petrobufferporteføljen skal vere på 5-10 milliardar kroner ved utgangen av kvart år.
Address by Central Bank Governor Kjell Storvik.
Address by Central Bank Governor Kjell Storvik.
Conference on the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, New York, March 12 1998, Held by The Norwegian-American Chamber of Commerce INC.
Conference on the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, New York, March 12 1998, held by The Norwegian-American Chamber of Commerce INC.
The investment management aims at high long term returns within acceptable limits of risk exposure.
The investment management aims at high long term returns within acceptable limits of risk exposure.
To induce general confidence, adequate risk controls and transparent reporting of performance will be essential.
To induce general confidence, adequate risk controls and transparent reporting of performance will be essential.
The revenues are based on the extraction of a non-renewable natural resource.
The revenues are based on the extraction of a non-renewable natural resource.
Intergenerational justice and economic policy considerations suggest that these revenues should not all be spent as they are earned.
Intergenerational justice and economic policy considerations suggest that these revenues should not all be spent as they are earned.
This implies that only a limited sum of the expected petroleum revenues should be spent domestically at any time.
This implies that only a limited sum of the expected petroleum revenues should be spent domestically at any time.
The Petroleum Fund thus has a double purpose.
The Petroleum Fund thus has a double purpose.
It serves as a buffer in case we are hit by an external shock, such as a fall in petroleum prices.
It serves as a buffer in case we are hit by an external shock, such as a fall in petroleum prices.
It is also an instrument for saving part of Norway's petroleum revenues for the next generation.
It is also an instrument for saving part of Norway's petroleum revenues for the next generation.
The size of the Petroleum Fund is increasing rapidly.
The size of the Petroleum Fund is increasing rapidly.
It may reach 70 billions dollars within four years, and is likely to continue increasing for the next 20 years.
It may reach 70 billions dollars within four years, and is likely to continue increasing for the next 20 years.
The central bank proposed last year that at least 30 per cent of the Fund should be invested in equities.
The central bank proposed last year that at least 30 per cent of the Fund should be invested in equities.
That kind of compromise is probably familiar to most of you.
That kind of compromise is probably familiar to most of you.
Norges Bank is managing the Petroleum Fund on behalf of the Ministry of Finance.
Norges Bank is managing the Petroleum Fund on behalf of the Ministry of Finance.
I believe the Ministry had several reasons for choosing Norges Bank as the manager of the Fund.
I believe the Ministry had several reasons for choosing Norges Bank as the manager of the Fund.
No other Norwegian manager has similar international experience.
No other Norwegian manager has similar international experience.
These relationships probably contribute to the national confidence needed for the management of the Fund.
These relationships probably contribute to the national confidence needed for the management of the Fund.
The Ministry of Finance set new guidelines for investment of the Petroleum Fund from 1 January this year.
The Ministry of Finance set new guidelines for investment of the Petroleum Fund from 1 January this year.
The guidelines are based on counsel from Norges Bank formally submitted to the Ministry in April and August 1997, and on an ongoing dialogue between the two institutions.
The guidelines are based on counsel from Norges Bank formally submitted to the Ministry in April and August 1997, and on an ongoing dialogue between the two institutions.
We also realised that substitution could change the import weights significantly over time.
We also realised that substitution could change the import weights significantly over time.
Given a distant horizon, it seemed a better idea to take a more balanced look at all production activities outside Norway.
Given a distant horizon, it seemed a better idea to take a more balanced look at all production activities outside Norway.
Market capitalization weights also reduce the need to rebalance the portfolio when markets perform differently.
Market capitalization weights also reduce the need to rebalance the portfolio when markets perform differently.
For the fixed income portfolio we recommended GDP weights, which give a well diversified portfolio.
For the fixed income portfolio we recommended GDP weights, which give a well diversified portfolio.
The reason for this is not merely to compel diversification.
The reason for this is not merely to compel diversification.
This implies that the Fund will not be used for strategic investments.
This implies that the Fund will not be used for strategic investments.
Certain national business interests would no doubt have welcomed the Fund's assistance in their market positioning efforts abroad.
Certain national business interests would no doubt have welcomed the Fund's assistance in their market positioning efforts abroad.
The present guidelines reflect such concerns to some extent through the investment universe chosen.
The present guidelines reflect such concerns to some extent through the investment universe chosen.
We are awaiting their conclusions on that point.
We are awaiting their conclusions on that point.
The latter role is somewhat unusual for a central bank.
The latter role is somewhat unusual for a central bank.
Norges Bank wishes to behave as a professional investment manager, comparing its costs and performance to other large funds around the world.
Norges Bank wishes to behave as a professional investment manager, comparing its costs and performance to other large funds around the world.
Consequently, the Bank has had to offer more flexible wage schemes than have traditionally been available.
Consequently, the Bank has had to offer more flexible wage schemes than have traditionally been available.
I believe we are going to succeed in establishing a highly efficient investment unit.
I believe we are going to succeed in establishing a highly efficient investment unit.
The guidelines state that we should maximise returns on the Fund portfolio within certain risk limits.
The guidelines state that we should maximise returns on the Fund portfolio within certain risk limits.
The expected tracking error of the total portfolio, as defined in a BARRA total plan risk model, may not at any time exceed 150 basis points.
The expected tracking error of the total portfolio, as defined in a BARRA total plan risk model, may not at any time exceed 150 basis points.
We started this year with a fixed income portfolio of about 15 billion dollars.
We started this year with a fixed income portfolio of about 15 billion dollars.
The identity of these managers will not be disclosed while the transition process is still under way.
The identity of these managers will not be disclosed while the transition process is still under way.
The slide illustrates our use of external services.
The slide illustrates our use of external services.