natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Using the panel data approach for 21 manufacturing industry sectors over the period between 1996 and 2002, it is found that FDI has positively and significantly affected exports, but the extent of this impact was relatively low. 
Koristeæi se analizom panel-podataka za 21 preraðivaèku industriju izmeðu 1996. i 2002. godine, pokazalo se da su izravna strana ulaganja pozitivno i statistièki znaèajno utjecala na izvoz, ali je taj utjecaj bio relativno slab.
This implies that there is a potential for improving the export performance of Croatian manufacturing industry by attracting more FDI into this sector. 
Iz toga proizlazi da postoji potencijal za poveæanje izvoza privlaèenjem dodatnih stranih ulaganja u industriju.
Policy makers should try to enhance the potential positive effects of FDI by targeting specific export-oriented greenfield foreign investment, and, in addition, implement measures to increase potential spillover effects. 
Nositelji gospodarske politike trebali bi pokušati poveæati potencijalne pozitivne uèinke stranih ulaganja ciljajuæi na izvozno orijentirane investicije u novoosnovana poduzeæa i uz to primjenjujuæi mjere koje mogu poveæati potencijalne uèinke “prelijevanja”.
Key words: foreign direct investment, exports, models with panel data, Croatia 
Kljuène rijeèi: izravna strana ulaganja, izvoz, Hrvatska, panel-analiza
It was expected that, in such an environment, enterprises would be able to restructure over the medium term and that they would be able successfully to compete in increasingly open domestic, as well as in export, markets. 
Oèekivalo se da æe se u takvoj okolini poduzeæa srednjoroèno moæi djelotvorno restrukturirati i postati dovoljno konkurentna da se uspješno natjeèu na sve otvorenijem domaæemu, ali i na izvoznim trištima.
There have been several reasons for stagnating exports over this period, like for example the loss of important export markets in some other former republics of Yugoslavia, war conditions in Croatia and in the wider region, slow and inefficient privatization, low investment levels, too slow integration in the European and world economy, or low export competitiveness. 
Nekoliko je uzroka stagnirajuæeg izvoza u tom razdoblju, npr. gubitak va nih izvoznih tr išta u nekim zemljama bivše Jugoslavije, ratni uvjeti u Hrvatskoj i u široj regiji, spora i neefikasna privatizacija, niska razina investicija, prespora integracija u europsko i svjetsko gospodarstvo te niska izvozna konkurentnost.
Since it is accepted that higher exports can contribute to accelerating economic 
S obzirom na to da je prihvaæena èinjenica kako poveæanje izvoza mo e pridonije
development (export-led growth strategy), promoting exports has become one of the most important tasks of Croatian economic policy. 
ti ubrzanju ekonomskog rasta (export-led growth strategy), promicanje izvoza postalo je jedna od najva nijih zadaæa hrvatske gospodarske politike.
In the case of Croatia, the high trade deficits on the current account of the balance of payments over the last decade underline the priority that should be assigned to export promotion (Stuèka, 2004). 
Ono dodatno dobiva na vanosti zbog visokih deficita u robnoj razmjeni na tekuæem raèunu hrvatske bilance plaæanja (Stuèka, 2004).
Several different policy measures can be applied for the accomplishment of this goal. 
Postoji nekoliko mjera kojima se mo e pokušati ostvariti poveæanje izvoza.
Many domestic economists argue that the problem primarily arose because of an excessively stringent exchange rate policy and an overvalued exchange rate over the period since the implementation of the stabilization program, and thus propose currency depreciation as a necessary policy measure (Nikiæ, 2003). 
Mnogi domaæi ekonomski struènjaci smatraju da je problem nastao zbog prestroge politike teèaja i precijenjene valute u razdoblju nakon stabilizacijskog programa i stoga predla u deprecijaciju kune kao potrebnu mjeru gospodarske politike (Nikiæ, 2003).
On the other hand, some argue that wages rose too fast relative to productivity increases, making the industrial production in Croatia too expensive and thus endangering export competitiveness. 
Nasuprot tome, tvrdi se da su plaæe rasle prebrzo u odnosu prema produktivnosti, što je industrijsku proizvodnju u Hrvatskoj uèinilo preskupom i time ugrozilo njezinu izvoznu konkurentnost.
Recent literature and the experience of some other countries indicate that there may 
Novija struèna literatura i iskustva drugih zemalja upuæuju na to da priljev izravnih
be export-promoting effects from inward foreign direct investment (FDI). 
stranih ulaganja (Foreign Direct Investment - FDI) mo e potaknuti izvoz.
But although Croatia has been relatively successful in attracting foreign investors, as measured in cumulative FDI stock per capita, the stagnating exports over the same period imply that, at the first glance, this has played no role in promoting exports. 
Meðutim, iako je Hrvatska bila relativno uspješna u privlaèenju inozemnih ulaganja, mjereno kumulativnim iznosom ulaganja po stanovniku, zbog stagnirajuæeg izvoza u istom razdoblju na prvi se pogled èini da su takvi efekti u nas izostali.
However, more detailed analysis of this relationship is needed, to account for the effects of other potentially important variables before any such conclusion is drawn. 
Ipak, potrebna je detaljnija analiza tog odnosa koja bi uzela u obzir i kretanja ostalih potencijalno znaèajnih varijabli prije nego se donese takav zakljuèak.
The first aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the weak export 
Primarni cilj ovog rada jest istra iti determinante slabog izvoza u promatranom raz
Among other macroeconomic variables, special attention is given to the role of the increasing FDI stock in Croatian manufacturing industry. 
Izmeðu ostalih makroekonomskih varijabli, posebna se pozornost pridaje utjecaju rastuæeg iznosa izravnih stranih ulaganja u hrvatskoj industriji na izvoz.
Some policy measures will be given, which should contribute to building and/or strengthening the link between FDI and exports in future. 
Takoðer æe biti predlo ene neke mjere gospodarske politike koje trebaju pridonijeti izgradnji, tj. jaèanju veze izmeðu stranih ulaganja i izvoza u buduænosti.
The structure of the paper is as follows: first, some developments in the Croatian 
Struktura rada je sljedeæa: najprije se ukratko opisuju neka kretanja u hrvatskom go
economy relevant for exports and competitiveness are shortly described. 
spodarstvu koja su va na za izvoz i konkurentnost.
Afterwards, the theory of as well as some empirical evidence concerning the link between inward FDI and exports is briefly reviewed. 
Zatim se daje kratak pregled teorije i empirijskih studija o vezi izmeðu izravnih stranih ulaganja i izvoza.
The fifth section then gives a descriptive representation of the relevant data and states the econometric model that will be tested. 
U petom se dijelu opisno prikazuju relevantni podaci i objašnjava ekonometrijski model koji se testira.
The results from the estimations are presented and discussed in the sixth section and the last part gives conclusions and policy recommendations. 
Rezultati procjena prezentiraju se i o njima se raspravlja u šestom dijelu, dok zadnji dio donosi zakljuèak i preporuke za ekonomsku politiku.
degree of disagreement among academic economists) that exports can help in accelerating economic growth. 
Èinjenica da izvoz mo e ubrzati gospodarski rast opæenito je prihvaæena meðu no
This and the high trade deficits on the current account of the Croatian balance of payments over the last decade are the main reasons why export promotion has become one of the most important economic policy issues in Croatia. 
Uz visoki deficit u robnoj razmjeni na tekuæem raèunu hrvatske bilance plaæanja, to su najva niji razlozi zašto je promicanje izvoza postalo jedno od najva nijih pitanja hrvatske ekonomske politike.
In order to better understand the causes of weak export developments in Croatia, some studies on this topic are shortly reviewed. 
Radi boljeg razumijevanja uzroka slabog izvoza u Hrvatskoj, slijedi kratak pregled literature o toj temi.
According to Nikiæ (2003), probably the most important reason for stagnating man 
Prema Nikiæu (2003), vjerojatno je najva niji uzrok stagniranja izvoza preraðivaèke
ufacturing industry exports has been the overvalued exchange rate. 
industrije bio precijenjeni valutni teèaj.
He sees the seeds of overvaluation in the stabilization program from 1993. 
Zaèetak te precijenjenosti on vidi u stabilizacijskom programu iz 1993. godine.
In the following months, the exchange rate started to depreciate, but insufficiently to compensate for the preceding rise. 
Tijekom sljedeæih mjeseci valuta je poèela deprecirati, ali nedovoljno da bi se kompenzirala prethodna aprecijacija.
As an overall result, inflation has been eliminated successfully, but at the cost of an overvalued exchange rate which, according to Nikiæ (2003), has been too strong burden for industry, which has been prevented from successfully restructuring and cutting the costs of production. 
U konaènici je inflacija uspješno eliminirana, ali uz cijenu precijenjene valute, što je prema Nikiæu (2003) bio prevelik teret da bi se industrija uspješno restrukturirala i da bi se smanjili troškovi proizvodnje.
At the end of 1995 there was a strong increase in wages and public expenditures, 
Krajem 1995. godine zabilje en je sna niji porast plaæa i javnih rashoda, što je vo
which led to further a deterioration in exporters' competitiveness. 
dilo daljnjem smanjenju konkurentnosti izvoznika.
Nikiæ (2003) concludes that at around this time, domestic production was partly substituted for by imported goods. 
Nikiæ (2003) zakljuèuje da su otprilike u to vrijeme domaæi proizvodi djelomièno zamijenjeni uvoznom robom.
Also, productivity increases in industry, which mostly arose through a reduction of 
Usto, porast produktivnosti u industriji, koji je uglavnom nastao zbog smanjenja
the number of employees, were offset to a great extent by the high increases in wages and public expenditures financed by higher tax burdens. 
broja zaposlenih, bio je uvelike poništen visokim porastom plaæa i porastom javnih rashoda financiranih veæim poreznim teretom.
At the same time, the levels of domestic investment and inflows of foreign capital remained relatively low. 
Istodobno je razina domaæih investicija, kao i priljev stranog kapitala, bila relativno niska.
Over the whole period, the trade deficit was high, due to stagnating exports and 
Takvim kretanjima u prilog išla je i precijenjena domaæa valuta koja je uvoz èinila relativno jeftinim.
Even if the net tourism income completely covered the visible trade deficit, it cre 
Èak i kada bi neto prihodi od turizma u potpunosti pokrivali robni deficit, turizam
ates mostly seasonal employment and is also very sensitive to reversals in “tourism fashion” and security crises, and thus, cannot replace all of the potential benefits of stronger export performance (Stuèka, 2004). 
stvara uglavnom sezonsku zaposlenost i vrlo je osjetljiv na promjene u “turistièkoj modi” i na sigurnosne krize, te stoga ne mo e ostvariti sve potencijalne koristi sna nijeg porasta izvoza (Stuèka, 2004).
Nikiæ (2003) argues that depreciation is needed in order to change these develop 
Nikiæ (2003) tvrdi da je deprecijacija nu na kako bi se ta kretanja promijenila.
However, Babiæ (2002) shows, using time series analysis, that the exchange rate is a weak explanatory variable of Croatian exports. 
Babiæ (2002), koristeæi se analizom vremenskih nizova, pokazuje da kretanja deviznog teèaja slabo objašnjavaju kretanja hrvatskog izvoza.
These rather limited potential benefits have to be compared to several possible adverse effects. 
Te prilièno limitirane potencijalne korisne uèinke treba usporediti s nekoliko moguæih negativnih uèinaka.
The first one, emphasized by both Nikiæ (2003) and Stuèka (2004), is the potential instability through depreciation via an inflationary spiral, which can also offset all the benefits of depreciation for exporters. 
Prvi takav uèinak koji naglašavaju i Nikiæ (2003) i Stuèka (2004) jest potencijalna nestabilnost zbog deprecijacije uzrokovane inflacijskom spiralom, koja takoðer mo e poništiti sve pozitivne uèinke deprecijacije za izvoznike.
In addition, both authors also recognize that the Croatian economy is strongly characterized by currency substitution (“euroization”). 
Nadalje, oba autora navode da je hrvatsko gospodarstvo sna no karakterizirano valutnom supstitucijom (“euroizacijom”).
This has led to a high level of indexed debt (initially to the German mark, then to the Euro) held by households and enterprises (Stuèka, 2004), meaning that a depreciation would have strong redistribution effects (from debtors to creditors) and is politically questionable as a means of achieving economic policy goals. 
To je dovelo do visoke razine indeksiranog duga kuæanstava i poduzeæa, u poèetku prema njemaèkoj marki, kasnije prema euru (Stuèka, 2004), što znaèi da bi deprecijacija imala sna ne redistributivne uèinke (od du nika ka vjerovnicima) i zbog toga je politièki upitna kao sredstvo za ostvarivanje ekonomsko-politièkih ciljeva.
In the more extreme scenario, it could also lead to instability of the financial system if many debtors become unable to pay back their loans. 
U ekstremnijem scenariju deprecijacija bi mogla dovesti i do nestabilnosti financijskog sustava ako znatan broj du nika ne bi više bio sposoban vraæati kredite.
Other adverse effects of a currency devaluation mentioned by Stuèka (2004) include a fall in real domestic income due to the increase in import prices; potential sensitiveness of industries to increases in import prices of intermediate goods; a shift of resources to the tradable sector, possibly causing a wage gap and resulting in higher unemployment; and adverse impact on public finances through the increased domestic currency cost of debt servicing. 
Ostali negativni uèinci devalvacije valute koje spominje Stuèka (2004) jesu npr. pad realnih domaæih prihoda zbog poveæanja cijena uvoznih proizvoda, potencijalna osjetljivost industrije na porast cijena uvoznih intermedijarnih proizvoda, preusmjeravanje resursa u sektor proizvodnje roba kojima se trguje na meðunarodnom tr ištu, što moe dovesti do poveæanja razlika u plaæama i veæe nezaposlenosti, te negativan utjecaj na javne financije zbog poveæanog troška (u domaæoj valuti) servisiranja duga.
All of the above arguments lead to the conclusion that currency devaluation can 
Svi navedeni argumenti upuæuju na to da devalvacija valute teško mo e proizvesti
Another instrument which cannot be implemented in order to improve the present situation is administrative import barriers, which are unacceptable due to international agreements in force and the Croatian commitment to stronger integration in the European and world economies. 
Još jedan instrument koji se ne mo e iskoristiti za poboljšanje trenutaène situacije jesu administrativne uvozne barijere, koje su neprihvatljive zbog va eæih meðunarodnih ugovora i hrvatske odluènosti da se sna nije integrira u europsko i svjetsko gospodarstvo.
All other export-promoting measures, broadly speaking, should improve the productivity of the enterprises and lower the costs of production. 
Sve ostale mjere za poticanje izvoza trebale bi poboljšati produktivnost poduzeæa i smanjiti troškove proizvodnje.
One of the most important reasons for the weak export development was the slow 
Jedan od najva nijih razloga slabog izvoza bila je spora integracija hrvatske ekono
integration of the Croatian economy into the European and the world economy, i.e. a 
mije u europsko i svjetsko gospodarstvo, tj. relativno niska razina trgovinske liberaliza
This is an important obstacle for strong export performance. 
To je bila velika prepreka porastu izvoza.
They stress the importance of export competitiveness, in which they give special attention to wages and productivity and unit labor costs. 
Oni istièu va nost izvozne konkurentnosti, pri èemu posebnu pozornost pridaju plaæama, produktivnosti i jediniènim troškovima rada.
They argue that the role of exchange rate changes, unit labor cost changes, as well as wage levels (in international comparisons) was not that important in determining export performance in Croatia between 1995 and 2001. 
Tvrde da devizni teèaj, kao ni plaæe (u meðunarodnoj usporedbi), nisu znaèajno utjecali na kretanje hrvatskog izvoza izmeðu 1995. i 2001. godine.
This finding is supported by conclusions from Švigir (2004), who analyzes the export performance of groups of different manufacturing industries and the average productivity and wage developments within these groups. 
Posljednje potvrðuje i Švigir (2004), koji je analizirao izvoz grupa razlièitih preraðivaèkih industrija te prosjeènu produktivnost i kretanja plaæa unutar tih grupa.
However, both of these studies, as well as the conclusions from Nikiæ (2003), are based on more or less simple observations of simple correlation coefficients. 
Meðutim, obje spomenute studije, kao i zakljuèci Nikiæa (2003), zasnovane su na relativno jednostavnim opservacijama koeficijenata korelacije.
Needless to say, more rigorous econometric investigation is needed in order to assess the determinants of Croatian exports. 
Ne treba posebno isticati da je potrebno rigoroznije ekonometrijsko istra ivanje radi odreðivanja determinanti hrvatskog izvoza.
Except for the potential export determinants mentioned above, there is another 
Osim navedenih potencijalnih determinanti izvoza, postoji još jedna potencijalno
potentially important variable which has not yet been analyzed at all in this context for Croatia. 
znaèajna varijabla koja za Hrvatsku do sada nije bila analizirana u promatranom kontekstu.
It is widely accepted that inward foreign direct investment may influence a host country's export performance. 
Opæenito je prihvaæeno shvaæanje da priljev izravnih stranih ulaganja mo e utjecati na izvoz zemlje primateljice ulaganja.
Again, more careful econometric examination of this potential link is needed in order to account for the influences of other important variables. 
S obzirom na to da je izvoz istodobno stagnirao, na prvi bi se pogled moglo zakljuèiti da strana ulaganja nisu promotivno utjecala na izvoz.
Before the data are examined and the econometric model is presented, the relevant theory about FDI and trade is briefly reviewed in the next section. 
Ponovno treba spomenuti da je potrebna pa ljivija ekonometrijska analiza te potencijalne veze kojom bi se uzela u obzir i kretanja drugih va nih varijabli.
3 Theory on foreign direct investment and exports 
3. Teorija o izravnim stranim ulaganjima i izvozu
In a standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model (H-O-S), the factor prices will 
U standardnome modelu tipa Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (H-O-S), cijene faktora
equalize even if there is only trade in goods and there are no factor movements at all. 
proizvodnje izjednaèavaju se èak i ako postoji samo trgovina robama, a faktori proizvodnje nisu mobilni.
This result is known as the factor price equalization theorem. 
Taj je rezultat poznat pod nazivom teorem izjednaèavanja cijena faktora proizvodnje.
In a way, countries would be trading the factors of production indirectly - embodied in the traded goods. 
Na neki naèin zemlje trguju faktorima proizvodnje neizravno - oni su sadr ani u robama kojima se trguje.
In this case trade and factor movements are obviously substitutes. 
U tom primjeru meðunarodna trgovina i kretanje faktora proizvodnje oèitno su supstituti.
This would also be true if only factors were mobile, and if there were no trade in goods. 
Tako bi bilo i u situaciji u kojoj su mobilni samo faktori proizvodnje, a nema trgovine robama.
Then there would still be a tendency for equalization of the commodity prices. 
Još bi uvijek postojala tendencija za izjednaèavanjem cijena roba.
The reason for this is that in the HO-S model, trade arises because of the differences in factor endowments between the countries. 
Razlog tome je èinjenica da se u H-O-S modelu trgovina ostvaruje zbog razlika u postojeæim kolièinama raznih faktora proizvodnje u razlièitim zemljama.
Subsequent research has shown that if additional assumptions are included into the standard models, it is possible for factor movements and international trade to become complements. 
Kasnija su istra ivanja pokazala da se ukljuèivanjem nekih dodatnih pretpostavki u standardne modele mo e postiæi da odnos izmeðu meðunarodne trgovine i kretanja faktora proizvodnje bude komplementaran.
Different ways of achieving this result include allowing for differences in technologies and preferences across countries, introducing production taxes, a monopoly market structure and external economies of scale (see Goldberg and Klein (2000) for an overview of relevant research). 
Neke su od tih pretpostavki npr. razlièite tehnologije i razlièite preferencije u razlièitim zemljama, porezi na proizvodnju, monopoli, vanjska ekonomija obujma itd. (Goldstein i Klein (2000) daju pregled relevantnih istra ivanja).
The central idea of the theory of multinational enterprises (MNE) is that firms must 
Osnovna ideja teorije multinacionalnih poduzeæa jest da poduzeæa moraju imati ne
have certain advantages in order to become multinational companies. 
ke prednosti da bi postala multinacionalna.
It is reasonable to expect that firms can do business in foreign countries only at a higher cost than domestic firms. 
Razumljiva je pretpostavka da kompanije mogu poslovati u stranim zemljama samo uz troškove proizvodnje koji su viši od troškova domaæih poduzeæa.
Without specific advantages capable of compensating for this inferior position, their foreign operations would not be sustainable. 
Bez odreðenih prednosti kojima se kompenzira takav inferioran polo aj njihovo poslovanje u inozemstvu ne bi bilo odr ivo.
In his OLI paradigm Dunning (1993) organized these advantages into three basic groups. 
U OLI paradigmi Dunning (1993) sistematizira te prednosti u tri osnovne grupe.
In his opinion the multinational firm must have a product or a production process giving it some monopoly power in the foreign market (ownership advantage - O), and/or a reason to locate production abroad (location advantage - L), and/or an incentive to exploit its ownership advantage internally (internalization advantage - I). 
Prema njegovu mišljenju, multinacionalna kompanija posjeduje proizvod ili proces koji joj daje odreðenu moæ monopola na stranom tr ištu (prednost vlasnika: ownership advantage - O), i/ili ima razlog da proizvodi u inozemstvu (prednost lokacije: location advantage - L), i/ili ima poticaj da svoju prednost posjedovanja iskorištava interno (prednost internalizacije: internalization advantage - I).
A direct conclusion is that firms may have different motives for becoming multinational enterprises. 
Izravan je zakljuèak da poduzeæa mogu imati razlièite motive da postanu multinacionalna.
These motives may define different types of foreign direct investment, which on the other hand, may have different impact on the home and (more interesting for this research) host country's economy and thus export performance. 
Razni motivi definiraju razlièite vrste izravnih stranih ulaganja koja, pak, mogu imati razlièite uèinke za zemlju podrijetla i, što je za ovo istraivanje va nije, na gospodarstvo zemlje primateljice ulaganja i njezin izvoz.
The impact of the various types of FDI on a host country's exports as suggested by 
Uèinci raznih vrsta izravnih ulaganja na izvoz zemlje primateljice, kako ih predvi
the OLI paradigm is summarized in Table 1. 
ða OLI paradigma, sa eti su u tablici 1.
It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict the macroeconomic effect of FDI on exports, unless one knows that most foreign investment is either market- or resource-seeking. 
Teško je, ako ne i nemoguæe, predvidjeti makroekonomski uèinak izravnih stranih ulaganja na izvoz ako se ne zna da je veæina stranih ulaganja tr išno ili resursno orijentirana.