natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
The deflator of export of goods will decline, however, the growth of the deflator of export of services, partly due to continued strong tourism demand, will ultimately lead to a slight increase of the total export deflator of 0.6%.
Deflator izvoza roba blago će pasti, međutim, rast deflatora izvoza usluga, dijelom zbog nastavka snažne turističke potražnje, u konačnici će dovesti do blagog rasta deflatora ukupnog izvoza od 0,6%.
Compared to 2015 and previous years, the decline of the exports of goods deflator will slow down considerably, reflecting the gradual disappearance of extremely negative pressures from the domestic labour market and currency movements, as well as slowed imports deflationary pressures.
U usporedbi s 2015. te prethodnim godinama, pad deflatora izvoza roba će poprilično usporiti što je odraz postupnog iščezavanja iznimno negativnih pritisaka od strane domaćeg tržišta rada i tečajnih kretanja kao i usporavanja uvoznih deflatornih pritisaka.
The investment deflator growth will slightly accelerate compared to the previous year (1.0%) while the government spending deflator will remain approximately on the same level (0.5%), primarily as a result of only slightly stronger growth in unit compensation of employees on the general government level.
U odnosu na prošlu godinu, blago će ubrzati rast deflatora investicija, na 1,0%, dok će se na približno istoj razini, od 0,5%, zadržati deflator državne potrošnje, prije svega kao rezultat tek blago snažnijeg rasta jediničnih naknada zaposlenima na razini opće države.
In its projections for the Republic of Croatia published in February, the European Commission projected only a slightly stronger growth of the GDP deflator of 1.2% in 2016 primarily as the result of a slightly stronger growth of household consumption deflator (0.3 percentage points) and government consumption deflator (0.7 percentage points), while the change in the terms of goods and services trade is expected to remain approximately on the same level.
U svojim projekcijama za RH iz veljače EK je u 2016. godini projicirala tek blago snažniji rast deflatora BDP-a od 1,2% prvenstveno kao posljedica nešto snažnijeg rasta deflatora potrošnje kućanstava (za 0,3 postotna boda) te deflatora državne potrošnje (za 0,7 postotnih bodova) dok je promjena uvjeta razmjene roba i usluga predviđeni na približno istoj razini.
In the coming years, in line with developments in domestic economic activity and international pricing trends, GDP deflator growth will gradually accelerate to 1.2% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.
U narednim godinama, u skladu s kretanjem domaće ekonomske aktivnosti te međunarodnim cjenovnim kretanjima, deflator BDP-a postupno će ubrzavati rast na 1,2% u 2017., 1,5% u 2018. te 1,7% u 2019. godini.
Primarily influenced by the recovery of raw material prices on the world market, the expected inflation acceleration in the EU and the continued growth of domestic demand are expected to accelerate the rate of inflation to 1.4% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.
Prvenstveno pod utjecajem oporavka cijena sirovina na svjetskom tržištu, očekivanog ubrzanja inflacije u EU i nastavka rasta domaće potražnje očekuje se ubrzanje stope inflacije na 1,4% u 2017., 1,6% u 2018. te 1,7% u 2019. godini.
At the same time, inflationary pressures on the side of domestic supply will be muted as a result of projected dynamics of unit labour costs.
U isto vrijeme, inflatorni pritisci sa strane domaće ponude bit će prigušeni kao posljedica projicirane dinamike jediničnih troškova rada.
Consumer price inflation, due to structural reasons, will generally not exceed the rate of inflation in the EU markets.
Inflacija potrošačkih cijena, zbog strukturnih razloga, uglavnom neće premašivati stope inflacije na tržištima EU.
Imports of goods and services deflator, under the influence of foreign price developments, will gradually accelerate its growth towards the end of the projection period.
Deflator uvoza roba i usluga, pod utjecajem inozemnih cjenovnih kretanja, postupno će ubrzavati rast prema kraju projekcijskog razdoblja.
Deflator of export of goods and services will also show somewhat lower growth rates which will accelerate towards 2019, whereby the deflator of export of goods during the entire observed period will have lower growth rates than the deflator of export of services as a slower dynamic of domestic cost pressures, and at the same time stronger foreign demand for domestic services and raising the quality of said services is expected.
Nešto slabije stope rasta koje će također ubrzavati prema 2019. bilježit će i deflator izvoza roba i usluga, pri čemu će deflator izvoza roba tijekom čitavog promatranog razdoblja bilježiti niže stope promjene od deflatora izvoza usluga budući da je predviđena slaba dinamika domaćih troškovnih pritisaka, a istovremeno se očekuje snažna inozemna potražnja za domaćim uslugama te podizanje njihove kvalitete.
Thus, anticipated trends in the labour market will enable the strengthening of domestic sector competitiveness regarding the exchange of goods which will be reflected in the retention of negative changes in the terms of trade in goods by the end of the period, although with a declining dynamic.
Tako će od strane predviđenih kretanja na tržištu rada biti omogućeno jačanje konkurentnosti domaćeg sektora razmjene roba što će se ogledati i u zadržavanju negativnih promjena u uvjetima razmjene roba do kraja razdoblja, iako s padajućom dinamikom.
Acceleration toward 2019 will be demonstrated by deflators of remaining domestic demand components, whereby the government spending deflator will show lower growth rates during the entire observed period than the deflator of household consumption and investment consumption deflator, as a result of a relatively weak expected growth dynamics of the average gross wage per employee on the general government level.
Ubrzavanje prema 2019. godini zabilježit će i deflatori preostalih komponenti domaće potražnje, pri čemu će deflator državne potrošnje tijekom čitavog promatranog razdoblja bilježiti slabije stope promjene od deflatora potrošnje kućanstava kao i deflatora investicijske potrošnje, kao posljedica razmjerno slabe očekivane dinamike rasta prosječne bruto plaće zaposlenika na razini opće države.
According to projections of the International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook Update, January 2016), oil prices in 2017 (in US dollars) should increase year-on-year by 14.9%, while a continued growth with a slower dynamic of 8.9% and 6.8% is expected in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Prema projekcijama Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (World Economic Outlook Update, siječanj 2016.) cijene nafte (u američkim dolarima) trebale bi u 2017. na međugodišnjoj razini porasti 14,9%, dok se u 2018. i 2019. godini očekuje nastavak rasta nešto sporijom dinamikom od 8,9% i 6,8%.
According to the forecasts of the European Commission, inflation in the EU measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) should accelerate from 0.5% in 2016 to 1.6% in 2017.
Prema prognozama EK inflacija u EU mjerena harmoniziranim indeksom potrošačkih cijena (HICP) bi trebala ubrzati sa 0,5% u 2016. na 1,6% u 2017. godini.
Last year's Convergence Programme projected a growth of GDP deflator only negligibly higher then achieved, primarily due to the expected stagnation in consumer prices, and a slight decline was also experienced.
Prošlogodišnjim Programom konvergencije rast deflatora BDP-a prognoziran je tek zanemarivo iznad ostvarenja, prije svega zato što se očekivala stagnacija potrošačkih cijena, a ostvaren je blagi pad.
Rates of inflation lower than projected are primarily due to significantly stronger decline in raw material prices on the world market.
Ostvarenje niže stope inflacije od projicirane prvenstveno je posljedica znatno snažnijeg pada cijena sirovina na svjetskom tržištu od očekivanog.
Labour market
Tržište rada
As mentioned earlier, economic growth in 2015 had an extremely favorable effect on the labour market.
Kao što je ranije spomenuto, gospodarski rast u 2015. iznimno se povoljno odrazio na tržište rada.
According to preliminary data, harmonized with the definition of national accounts, 2015 saw a growth of employment of 1.7%.
Prema preliminarnim podacima usklađenim s definicijom nacionalnih računa, u 2015. godini ostvaren je rast zaposlenosti od 1,7%.
This employment trend was mainly driven by growth in employment in trade and tourism, which could be associated with stronger seasonal employment.
Ovakvom kretanju zaposlenosti najviše je pridonio rast zaposlenosti u trgovini i turizmu, što bi moglo biti povezano s jačim sezonskim zapošljavanjem.
Surveyed unemployment rate decreased from 17.3% in 2014 to 16.3% in 2015.
Anketna stopa nezaposlenosti smanjena je sa 17,3% u 2014. na 16,3% u 2015. godini.
Positive trends will continue in the coming period, although at a slower pace, with a projected employment growth of 1.1% in 2016, 1.4% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.
Pozitivni trendovi će se nastaviti i u narednom razdoblju, iako slabijim intenzitetom, pa projicirani rast zaposlenosti iznosi 1,1% u 2016. godini, 1,4% u 2017., 1,6% u 2018. te 1,5% u 2019. godini.
Employment growth in the private sector will exhibit a much stronger dynamic in the observed period.
Pri tome će znatno snažniju dinamiku u promatranom razdoblju imati rast zaposlenosti u privatnom sektoru.
Throughout the projection period, we predict a further reduction of the surveyed unemployment rate, from 15.5% in 2016 to 14.5% in 2017, 13.5% in 2018 and to 12.8% in 2019.
Kroz čitavo projekcijsko razdoblje predviđa se i daljnje smanjenje anketne stope nezaposlenosti, s 15,5% u 2016. na 14,5% u 2017., 13,5% u 2018. te na 12,8% u 2019. godini.
This projection incorporates the assumption that, in spite of unfavorable demographic trends, the economic recovery will have some positive impacts on the participation rate, which is supported by the fact of unfavorable structural characteristics of the Croatian labour market, especially a high share of long-term unemployed persons and the long average duration of unemployment.
U navedenu projekciju ugrađena je pretpostavka kako će, unatoč nepovoljnim ukupnim demografskim kretanjima, gospodarski oporavak imati određene pozitivne učinke na stopu participacije, čemu u prilog ide i činjenica o nepovoljnim strukturnim karakteristikama hrvatskog tržišta rada, prvenstveno visok udio dugotrajno nezaposlenih osoba te dugo prosječno trajanje nezaposlenosti.
Although the methodology changed at the start of 2014 and the employment series was interrupted, this should not impact the employment trends in 2015.
Iako je početkom 2014. došlo do promjene metodologije i prekida serije zaposlenosti, ovo ne bi trebalo imati utjecaja na kretanje zaposlenosti u 2015. godini.
According to the labour force survey, the employment growth was 1.5%.
Prema anketi o radnoj snazi rast zaposlenosti je iznosio 1,5%.
According to labour force survey data.
Prema podacima ankete o radnoj snazi.
After the stagnation in 2015, the average labour productivity will show a slight increase throughout the projection period since the projected growth of the GDP will be faster than the employment growth in each year, whereby the labour productivity will reach its minimum growth in 2018 (increase of 0.7%).
Nakon stagnacije u 2015., prosječna produktivnost rada bilježit će blago povećanje kroz čitavo projekcijsko razdoblje, budući da će predviđeni rast BDP-a u svim godinama biti brži od rasta zaposlenosti, pri čemu će produktivnost rada svoj minimalni rast postići 2018. (rast od 0,7%).
After three consecutive years of pronounced reduction, unit labour cost slowed its decline in 2015 and is only slightly reduced.
Nakon tri uzastopne godine izraženijih smanjenja, jedinični trošak rada u 2015. godini usporio je pad te je tek blago smanjen.
In the coming years, the growth of gross compensation per employee which is somewhat stronger and more accelerated than the growth of labour productivity will lead to a more dynamic unit labour cost.
U narednim godinama nešto snažniji te ubrzavajući rast bruto naknada po zaposleniku od rasta produktivnosti rada dovest će do dinamiziranja jediničnog troška rada.
However, with the accelerated inflation, the real change in gross compensation per employee will be weaker than the growth of labour productivity in the period between 2017 and 2019.
Međutim, s ubrzanjem inflacije, realne promjene bruto naknada po zaposleniku bit će slabije od rasta produktivnosti rada u razdoblju 2017. - 2019.
External sector
Vanjski sektor
In 2015, for the third consecutive year, there was a positive current account balance of payments of 5.2% of the GDP, which is a historically high value.
U 2015. godini, treću godinu zaredom, zabilježen je pozitivan saldo tekućeg računa bilance plaćanja od 5,2% BDP-a, što je dosad najviša zabilježena razina.
The largest contribution to the improvement of the current account balance in 2015 came from the reduction of the negative balance of primary income, primarily due to the reported loss of the banking sector in predominantly foreign ownership due to the conversion of loans in Swiss francs.
Najveći doprinos poboljšanju salda tekućeg računa u 2015. došao je od smanjenja negativnog salda primarnog dohotka, prvenstveno uslijed iskazanih gubitaka bankarskog sektora u pretežno stranom vlasništvu zbog konverzije kredita u švicarskim francima.
The improved balance of payment was contributed by the services and secondary income account, while the goods account affected the current account balance negatively.
Poboljšanju salda platne bilance pridonio je i račun usluga i sekundarnog dohotka, dok je račun roba negativno djelovao na saldo tekućeg računa.
According to preliminary unaudited data for credit institutions, the banking sector amounted a loss of HRK 4.7 billion or 1.4% of the GDP at the end of 2015.
Prema privremenim nerevidiranim podacima za kreditne institucije, bankarski sektor je krajem 2015. godine ostvario gubitak od 4,7 milijardi kuna odnosno 1,4% BDP-a.
We expect a stabilization of surplus in the current account balance of payments in the following period, which will be reduced from its record high value of 2015 to the level of about 4% of the GDP.
U narednom razdoblju očekuje se stabilizacija viška na tekućem računu bilance plaćanja koji će se smanjiti sa svoje rekordne vrijednosti iz 2015. godine na razine od približno 4% BDP-a.
The most significant influence on the current account balance is expected from the account of goods and services, with the positive balance of services continuously exceeding the negative balance of goods.
Najznačajniji utjecaj na kretanje tekućeg računa očekuje se od računa roba i usluga, pri čemu će pozitivan saldo usluga kontinuirano premašivati negativan saldo roba.
Following a temporary correction in 2015, the negative balance of the primary income account will return to higher levels, mainly due to the income growth of foreign-owned companies, while the intensive use of EU funds will lead to an increase in the positive balance of the secondary income account.
Nakon privremene korekcije u 2015., negativan saldo računa primarnog dohotka vratit će se na više razine, ponajviše pod utjecajem rasta dobiti poduzeća u stranom vlasništvu, dok će intenzivnije korištenje sredstava iz EU fondova dovesti do povećanja pozitivnog salda na računu sekundarnog dohotka.
The capital transactions account will exhibit a continuous increase of the positive balance during the entire projection period due to an intensified use of capital transfers from the EU.
Račun kapitalnih transakcija bilježit će kontinuirani porast pozitivnog salda u čitavom projekcijskom razdoblju uslijed jačeg korištenja kapitalnih transfera iz EU.
As a result of the trends described above, it is expected that the surplus in the current and capital accounts, which reached 5.6% of the GDP in 2015, will remain around 5% of the GDP in the coming period.
Uslijed opisanih kretanja, očekuje se da će se višak na tekućem i kapitalnom računu, koji je dosegnuo 5,6% BDP-a u 2015. godini, zadržati na razinama od oko 5% BDP-a u narednom razdoblju.
The previous Programme predicted a positive balance of current and capital accounts in the amount of 1.9% of the GDP (1.4% of the GDP if we only observe the current account) in 2015.
Prethodnim Programom očekivao se pozitivan saldo tekućeg i kapitalnog računa od 1,9% BDP-a (1,4% BDP-a ukoliko gledamo samo tekući račun) u 2015. godini.
A much more favorable achievement is primarily due to the unforeseen conversion of loans in Swiss francs.
Znatno povoljnije ostvarenje prvenstveno je posljedica nepredviđene konverzije kredita u švicarskim francima.
Monetary developments
Monetarna kretanja
The Central Bank continued to maintain stability of the domestic currency in 2015.
Središnja banka je u 2015. godini nastavila održavati stabilnost tečaja domaće valute.
The average exchange rate against the euro was HRK 7.61/EUR in 2015 and a slight appreciation of 0.3% was recorded when compared with 2014.
Prosječni tečaj kune prema euru iznosio je 7,61 HRK/EUR u 2015. te je zabilježio blagu aprecijaciju od 0,3% u usporedbi s 2014. godinom.
In the coming period, we still expect to maintain the HRK/EUR exchange rate at stable levels.
U narednom razdoblju i dalje se očekuje zadržavanje tečaja kune prema euru na stabilnim razinama.
The liquidity of the monetary system was exceptionally high during 2015, and similar trends are expected in the coming period.
Likvidnost monetarnog sustava bila je izuzetno visoka tijekom 2015. godine te se slična kretanja očekuju i u narednom razdoblju.
In late 2015, the Central Bank abolished the obligation to allocate the foreign exchange component of reserve requirements in order to facilitate the flexible management of foreign currency liquidity by the banks.
Krajem 2015. godine središnja banka ukinula je obvezu izdvajanja deviznog dijela obvezne pričuve, kako bi se bankama omogućilo fleksibilnije upravljanje deviznom likvidnošću.
In addition, structural repo operations were implemented in early 2016 with a view of ensuring long-term kuna liquidity of banks so that they could finance the economy and the population in the national currency more intensively and under more favorable conditions.
Usto, početkom 2016. godine uvedene su strukturne repo operacije s ciljem osiguravanja dugoročne kunske likvidnosti banaka kako bi mogle intenzivnije i uz povoljnije uvjete kreditirati gospodarstvo i stanovništvo u domaćoj valuti.
Furthermore, the Central Bank continued to use regular reverse repo operations and foreign exchange interventions.
Osim toga, središnja banka nastavlja koristiti redovite obratne repo operacije te devizne intervencije.
Despite the above-mentioned high liquidity of the monetary system, 2015 saw a continued decline in lending to the private sector for the fourth year in a row.
Unatoč spomenutoj visokoj likvidnosti monetarnog sustava, tijekom 2015. nastavljen je pad plasmana privatnom sektoru četvrtu godinu zaredom.
Credit demand of the private sector is limited by long-term adverse economic developments, high level of indebtedness (private sector debt amounted to approx. 120% of the GDP in September 2015, of which approximately 80% related to corporate debt), as well as uncertainty with regard to future developments.
Naime, kreditna potražnja privatnog sektora ograničena je dugogodišnjim nepovoljnim ekonomskim kretanjima, visokom razinom njegove zaduženosti (dug privatnog sektora iznosio je oko 120% BDP-a u rujnu 2015. godine, od čega se oko 80% odnosilo na dug poduzeća), kao i neizvjesnošću glede budućih kretanja.
In addition, larger companies have turned to more favorable financing on international markets.
Osim toga, veća poduzeća okrenula su se povoljnijem financiranju na inozemnom tržištu.
On the other hand, loan supply is limited by the continuously reduced appetite for banking sector risk and a high share of non-performing loans, especially with regard to companies.
S druge strane, ponudu kredita ograničava i dalje smanjen apetit za rizikom bankarskog sektora te visoki udjeli loših plasmana, naročito kod poduzeća.
As previously mentioned, a revival of bank lending activities is not expected in 2016.
Kao što je ranije navedeno, tijekom 2016. godine još se uvijek ne očekuje oporavak kreditne aktivnosti banaka.
Due to the above limitations, the household sector will experience a slight decrease in placements and the deleveraging trend of companies will continue.
Naime, zbog prethodno navedenih ograničenja, kod sektora kućanstava očekuje se blago smanjenje plasmana, a trend razduživanja nastavit će se i kod poduzeća.
Growth in total loans is expected at the start of 2017.
Stoga se rast ukupnih plasmana očekuje tek od 2017. godine.
Despite the losses associated with the conversion of loans in Swiss francs and the high share of non-performing loans, the domestic financial sector proved to be resilient and stable.
Unatoč gubicima povezanim s konverzijom kredita u švicarskim francima te visokom udjelu loših plasmana, domaći financijski sektor pokazao se otpornim i stabilnim.
The capitalization of the banking sector is high (capital adequacy ratio is around 21%), and a reduction of non-performing loans is certain (share of non-performing loans in total loans fell below 17% by the end of 2015).
Kapitaliziranost bankarskog sektora je visoka (stopa adekvatnosti kapitala iznosi oko 21%), a izvjesno je i smanjivanje udjela loših kredita (udio loših plasmana u ukupnim već krajem 2015. pao je ispod 17%).
Foreign assets value of the banking sector exceeded the value of foreign liabilities for the first time after 14 years, while foreign reserves of the Croatian National Bank are continually at high levels.
Vrijednost inozemne aktive bankovnog sektora po prvi je puta nakon 14 godina premašila vrijednost inozemne pasive, dok su inozemne pričuve HNB-a i dalje na visokim razinama.
Macroeconomic projection risks
Rizici makroekonomskih projekcija
The described macroeconomic scenario is exposed to mildly prevailing negative risks, especially with regard to the international environment.
Opisani makroekonomski scenarij izložen je blago prevladavajuće negativnim rizicima, prvenstveno što se tiče međunarodnog okruženja.
As a result of the strong and growing integration within the EU, all risks that threaten the expected developments in Europe also affect the domestic economy.
Kao posljedica snažne i rastuće integriranosti u EU, svi rizici koji ugrožavaju očekivana kretanja u Europi djeluju i na domaće gospodarstvo.
As such, considering the dynamics of the export of goods, a fundamental negative risk stems from a weaker foreign demand for relevant export markets, but also the increased disappearance of positive effects, i.e., stronger negative effects of re-export in the short term.
Tako, što se tiče dinamike izvoza roba, temeljni negativni rizik proizlazi iz slabijeg ostvarenja inozemne potražnje relevantnih izvoznih tržišta, ali i jačeg iščezavanja pozitivnih učinaka odnosno snažnijih negativnih učinaka re-izvoza u kratkom roku.
Achieving growth in the services export sector could also by jeopardized by the lower foreign demand for tourist services, as well as strengthening of unfavorable geopolitical factors.
Ostvarenje rasta izvoza usluga mogla bi također ugroziti slabija inozemna potražnja za turističkim uslugama, ali i jačanje nepovoljnih geopolitičkih faktora.
Projection risks related to household consumption in the medium term are considered to be balanced, with the predicted trajectory closely linked to trends in the labour market.
Rizici za projekciju potrošnje kućanstava u srednjem roku smatraju se uravnoteženima, pri čemu je predviđena putanja usko vezana uz kretanja na tržištu rada.
As for the risks related to gross fixed capital formation, it is estimated that positive risks prevail in this regard, especially in the short term.
Što se tiče rizika za kretanje bruto investicija u fiksni kapital, procjenjuje se kako prevladavaju pozitivni rizici, pogotovo u kratkom roku.