natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
This strengthening of price competitiveness of exports refers to more favorable price movements in foreign markets, particularly in energy, taking into account the structure of the domestic export sector, projected weak dynamics of unit labour costs, as well as the expected exchange rate movements of kuna against the euro and the dollar.
Ovakvo jačanje cjenovne konkurentnosti izvoza odnosi se na povoljna kretanja cijena na inozemnim tržištima, posebice energenata, uzevši u obzir strukturu domaćeg izvoznog sektora, zatim projiciranu slabu dinamiku jediničnih troškova rada, ali i očekivano kretanje tečaja kune prema euru i dolaru.
The expected mild slowdown of overall export in 2019 is due to the weakened dynamics of the export of services and a slight acceleration of the export of goods.
U 2019. se očekivano blago usporavanje rasta ukupnog izvoza odnosi na slabljenje dinamike izvoza usluga te neznatno ubrzanje izvoza roba.
This expectation is slightly more optimistic than projections of the EC (5.0%), predicting a slightly stronger increase in the export of goods and a slightly weaker increase in the export of services.
Ovakvo očekivanje neznatno je optimističnije od projekcije EK (5,0%) pri čemu je predviđeno blago snažnije povećanje kod izvoza roba te neznatno slabije kod izvoza usluga.
A similar trajectory of the export of goods in the years following the EU accession was recorded to a certain extent in countries that joined the EU in the fifth round of expansion, but the start of the financial crisis undermined the dynamics of the export of goods in said countries in subsequent years, and thus made it difficult to compare their multi-year adjustment of export with the Republic of Croatia.
Slična putanja izvoza roba u godinama nakon pristupanja EU registrirana je u određenoj mjeri i u zemljama koje su pristupile EU u petom valu proširenja, s tim da je početak financijske krize narušio dinamiku izvoza roba dotičnih zemalja u daljnjim godinama te tako otežao usporedbu višegodišnje prilagodbe izvoza s Hrvatskom.
A strong growth in the export of goods and services amounting to 8.6% was recorded in 2015, largely linked with the growth of exports, primarily as a result of the aforementioned high re-export growth.
Tijekom 2015. godine zabilježen je snažan rast uvoza roba i usluga od 8,6% koji je velikim dijelom bio vezan uz rast izvoza, prije svega kao rezultat spomenutog visokog rasta re-izvoza.
Considering the one-time sudden slowdown of export growth and disappearance of positive re-export dynamics, it is expected that the real growth of imports of goods and services will decrease to 4.7% in 2016, despite a slight acceleration of domestic demand.
S obzirom na prije navedeno jednokratno snažno usporavanje rasta izvoza uz iščezavanje pozitivne dinamike učinaka re-izvoza, očekuje se da će i realni rast uvoza roba i usluga usporiti na 4,7% u 2016. godini, unatoč blagom ubrzanju domaće potražnje.
Although a fairly strong slowdown in final demand growth by 1.0 percentage point is expected in 2016, this projection of imports of goods and services leads to a very high reduction of implicit elasticity of total imports in relation to the final demand as a result of a significant impact assessment of partial elasticity of imports with respect to the exports component.
Iako se u 2016. godini očekuje prilično usporavanje rasta finalne potražnje za 1,0 postotni bod, ova projekcija uvoza roba i usluga dovodi do iznimno naglašenog smanjenja implicitne elastičnosti ukupnog uvoza u odnosu na finalnu potražnju što je posljedica znatne procjene utjecaja parcijalne elastičnosti uvoza u odnosu na izvoznu komponentu.
Towards the end of the projection period and in line with the strengthening demand, imports will again accelerate to the projected real growth in imports of 5.3% in 2017, 5.9% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.
Prema kraju projekcijskog razdoblja, u skladu s jačanjem potražnje, uvoz će ponovno ubrzavati pa je tako projiciran realni rast uvoza od 5,3% u 2017., 5,9% u 2018. te 6,3% u 2019. godini.
Throughout the entire projection period, the growth of imports of services will fall behind the growth of imports of goods with the exception of 2018, when it will catch up.
U čitavom projekcijskom razdoblju rast uvoza usluga zaostajat će za rastom uvoza roba s iznimkom 2018. godine kada će ga sustići.
The trajectory of imports of goods and services shown in this macroeconomic framework implies that the elasticity of imports with respect to final demand in the coming period will gradually grow with the acceleration of the final demand, but will remain at lower levels than in recent years when, as previously described, it was strongly influenced by temporary effects and, on the other hand, will be again somewhat more pronounced compared to the levels from the pre-crisis period.
Putanja uvoza roba i usluga prikazana u ovom makroekonomskom okviru podrazumijeva kako će elastičnost uvoza u odnosu na finalnu potražnju u narednom razdoblju postupno rasti s ubrzavanjem finalne potražnje, ali će ostati na nižim razinama nego što je to bio slučaj u posljednjim godinama kada su na nju, kao što je prethodno opisano, snažno utjecali privremeni učinci, a s druge strane, bit će opet nešto izraženija u usporedbi s razinama iz pred-kriznog razdoblja.
Although the partial elasticity of imports in relation to the export component in the crisis years has experienced an extremely strong, but largely only temporary increase, the elasticity of imports in relation to other components of the final demand showed a mild upward correction in the recession period, but of a permanent character, in connection with structural changes in the economy, including the loss of certain production capacities and appropriate substitution of imported products.
Naime, iako je parcijalna elastičnost uvoza u odnosu na izvoznu komponentu u kriznim godinama doživjela iznimno snažan, ali velikim dijelom samo privremen porast, elastičnost uvoza u odnosu na preostale komponente finalne potražnje zabilježila je u razdoblju recesije blagu korekciju naviše, no trajnog karaktera, u svezi sa strukturnim promjenama u gospodarstvu uključujući i gubitak određenih proizvodnih kapaciteta te odgovarajuću supstituciju uvoznim proizvodima.
Accordingly, the acceleration of the economic activity will cause the growth of imports of goods and services to overcome the growth of exports, which will be especially pronounced in 2019.
U skladu s navedenim, s ubrzanjem gospodarske aktivnosti rast uvoza roba i usluga nužno će prestići rast izvoza što će biti posebno izraženo u 2019. godini.
However, since the export of goods and services showed a significant absolute increase in the last few years, the contribution of net export to economic growth will be slightly positive in the period between 2016 and 2018, although it will decrease with the acceleration of recovery, while in the last year of the projection period, the net foreign demand will have a slightly negative contribution to economic growth.
Međutim, budući da je izvoz roba i usluga posljednjih godina zabilježio znatno apsolutno povećanje, doprinos neto izvoza gospodarskom rastu bit će blago pozitivan u razdoblju 2016. - 2018., iako će s ubrzanjem oporavka bivati sve manji, dok će u posljednjoj godini projekcijskog razdoblja neto inozemna potražnja blago negativno pridonijeti gospodarskom rastu.
We should point out that this kind of prediction is more reserved than the EC projection for the Republic of Croatia (slightly lower growth of imports of goods and services than 4.6% in 2016), which assumes a slightly lower elasticity of total imports with regard to final demand with a concurrent and faster expected growth of the final demand itself (0.1 percentage points), and especially domestic demand (0.2 percentage points).
Napomenimo kako je ovakvo očekivanje opreznije od projekcije EK za RH (neznatno niži rast uvoza roba i usluga od 4,6% u 2016.) koja pretpostavlja nešto nižu spomenutu elastičnost ukupnog uvoza spram finalne potražnje uz, istovremeno, brži očekivani rast same finalne potražnje (za 0,1 postotni bod), a posebno domaće potražnje (za 0,2 postotna boda).
At the same time, the projections for 2016 predict a higher growth rate of imports of goods (0.6 percentage points) and a lower growth rate of imports of services (2.0 percentage points).
Pri tome je u 2016. projicirana viša stopa rasta uvoza roba (0,6 postotnih bodova) te niža stopa rasta uvoza usluga (2,0 postotna boda).
Last year's Convergence Programme projected a growth in economic activity of 0.4% in 2015, which underestimated the acceleration of economic activity after six consecutive years of recession.
Prošlogodišnjim Programom konvergencije projiciran je rast ekonomske aktivnosti od 0,4% u 2015. godini te je tako poprilično podcijenjeno ubrzanje ekonomske aktivnosti nakon šest uzastopnih recesijskih godina.
The biggest deviations between last year's projections and achievements were noticed with regard to foreign trade; the growth of exports and imports of goods and services was underestimated, while the projected total contribution of net exports to GDP growth was achieved.
Najveća odstupanja prošlogodišnjih projekcija i ostvarenja zabilježena su kod vanjskotrgovinske razmjene, pri čemu je rast izvoza kao i uvoza roba i usluga bio podcijenjen, dok se projicirani ukupan doprinos neto izvoza rastu BDP-a ostvario.
This divergence between the projected growth of exports and imports and the achieved results was, for the most part, caused by underestimating the effect of re-exports which was expected to have a much smaller overall impact in 2014, followed by a significant disappearance in 2015.
Navedeno razilaženje kod projekcija rasta izvoza i uvoza te njihovih ostvarenja u najvećem je dijelu proizašlo iz podcijenjenog učinka re-izvoza pri čemu se očekivao njegov dosta manji ukupni utjecaj u 2014. te znatnije iščezavanje u 2015., godini.
Significant deviations also occurred with regard to gross fixed capital formations which were projected to have a slight decline versus their real growth, primarily due to private sector investments having different trends than anticipated, but also due to underestimating the investment growth of the broader public sector.
Do znatnijeg odstupanja došlo je i kod bruto investicija u fiksni kapital kod kojih je bio projiciran blagi realni pad nasuprot njihovom ostvarenom rastu, prvenstveno zbog suprotnog kretanja investicija privatnog sektora od predviđenog, ali i podcijenjenog rasta investicija šireg javnog sektora.
In addition, the real growth of household consumption was somewhat stronger than expected, primarily due to considerably more favorable trends in the labour market.
Osim toga, realni rast potrošnje kućanstava ostvaren je nešto snažnije no što se očekivalo, prije svega uslijed zamjetno povoljnijih kretanja na tržištu rada od očekivanih.
Government spending recorded a slight increase instead of the projected decrease, primarily due to the absence of the expected reduction in intermediary consumption.
Kod državne potrošnje ostvaren je blagi rast umjesto projiciranog pada, prvenstveno zbog izostanka očekivanog smanjenja intemedijarne potrošnje.
The growth of potential gross domestic product has slowed significantly in the six-year period of recession.
Rast potencijalnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda znatno je usporen u razdoblju šestogodišnje recesije.
The growth of potential gross domestic product amounted to an average of more than 3.0% in the pre-crisis period, while dropping to 0.6% in 2015, and could again exceed 1.0% somewhere in 2018.
Naime, rast potencijalnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda iznosio je prosječno više od 3,0% u pred-kriznom razdoblju, dok se u 2015. kretao na razini od 0,6% te bi tek u 2018. godini mogao nadmašiti 1,0%.
The pronounced contribution to the growth of potential gross domestic product which came from capital factors before the crisis due to strong investment activity has been significantly reduced at the beginning of the crisis.
Izražen doprinos rastu potencijalnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda koji je prije krize dolazio od faktora kapitala uslijed snažne investicijske aktivnosti, znatno je smanjen početkom krize.
There was also a significant decrease of the positive contributions of multi-factor productivity which recorded negative values in the period between 2007 and 2015.
Došlo je i do znatnog smanjenja pozitivnog doprinosa višefaktorske produktivnosti, koji je u razdoblju 2007. - 2015. bilježio negativne vrijednosti.
Negative contributions to the growth of potential GDP in the crisis period were also attributed to the labour factor, primarily as a consequence of the labour force decline, and to a lesser extent due to the increasing unemployment rate trend.
Negativne doprinose rastu potencijalnog BDP-a u razdoblju krize bilježio je i faktor rada, ponajprije kao posljedica smanjenja trenda radne snage, te u manjoj mjeri zbog povećanja trenda stope nezaposlenosti.
Calculation made by the Ministry of Finance using the production function methodology of the European Commission.
Izračun Ministarstva financija korištenjem metodologije proizvodne funkcije Europske komisije.
In the medium term, we expect to see an accelerated growth of potential GDP.
U srednjoročnom razdoblju očekuje se ubrzanje rasta potencijalnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda.
Potential GDP is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2016.
U 2016. godini očekuje se rast potencijalnog BDP-a od 0,8%.
It is therefore expected that the biggest contribution will come from the capital factors as a result of re-intensification of capital investments, and to a lesser extent from labour factors which will be impacted by increased labour force participation, while the contribution of multi-factor productivity is expected to remain slightly negative.
Pritom će najveći doprinos njegovom rastu doći od faktora kapitala uslijed ponovnog intenziviranja investicija, a u manjoj mjeri od faktora rada na koji će djelovati povećanje stope participacije radne snage, dok će doprinos višefaktorske produktivnosti još uvijek biti blago negativan.
We expect to see a growth of potential GDP of 1.0% in 2017, 1.2% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019.
Predviđa se da će rast potencijalnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda iznositi 1,0% u 2017., 1,2% u 2018. te 1,3% u 2019. godini.
Capital factors, and to a lesser extent, labour factor and multi-factor productivity, will contribute the most to the growth of potential GDP during the entire period which could again begin to increase after 2016.
Tijekom cijelog razdoblja rastu potencijalnog BDP-a će najviše doprinositi faktor kapitala, te u manjoj mjeri faktor rada i višefaktorska produktivnost, čiji bi se trend nakon 2016. godine ponovno mogao početi povećavati.
Although the number of working-age population (aged 15-74) is expected to decline in 2016, as is the trend since 2006, the growth of labour force resulted from an increase in the participation rate, which should continue to grow in the rest of the projection period although at a slower pace.
Iako se u 2016. očekuje nastavak smanjenja broja radno sposobnih stanovnika (u dobi od 15 do 74 godine) koje kontinuirano traje još od 2006. godine, povećanje trenda radne snage proizlazi iz povećanja trenda stope participacije, koji bi trebao nastaviti rasti i u ostatku projekcijskog razdoblja, iako sporijom dinamikom.
Chart 2.1
Grafikon 2.1.
Contributions to the growth of potential GDP
Doprinosi rastu potencijalnog BDP-a
Central Bureau of Statistics, Eurostat, Ministry of Finance
Državni zavod za statistiku, Eurostat, Ministarstvo financija
It is expected that the negative production gap, which has been present since 2009 and reached its peak in 2014, will be significantly reduced during 2016 and 2017 due to a significantly higher GDP growth than the potential growth.
Očekuje se da će se negativan jaz proizvodnje, koji je prisutan od 2009. te je dosegnuo svoj maksimum u 2014., znatno smanjiti tijekom 2016. i 2017. godine, uslijed znatno višeg rasta BDP-a od potencijalnog.
Gap should be closed in 2018, according to projections, when we will see a slightly positive production gap which will then increase to 1.4% in 2019.
Zatvaranje jaza predviđa se za 2018. kada će se zabilježiti blago pozitivan jaz proizvodnje koji će se zatim povećati na 1,4% u 2019. godini.
The potential growth rate derived by the Ministry of Finance approximately coincides with the calculations of the EC up until 2015, but in the period from 2016 onwards, it is slightly higher than the forecast made by the EC.
Stope potencijalnog rasta dobivene izračunom Ministarstva financija do 2015. godine približno se podudaraju s izračunima EK, no u razdoblju od 2016. nadalje nešto su više od prognoza EK.
More specifically, according to calculations made by the Ministry of Finance, the potential growth rate will accelerate after 2016 and reach 1.3% in 2019, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the potential growth rate in 2019 as forecasted by the European Commission.
Preciznije, prema izračunu Ministarstva financija stope potencijalnog rasta ubrzavaju nakon 2016., da bi do 2019. dostigle 1,3%, što je za 0,6 postotnih bodova veća stopa od stope potencijalnog rasta u 2019. godini iz prognoza EK.
Winter Economic Forecast, February 2016
Zimske ekonomske prognoze, veljača 2016.
This difference primarily stems from a higher contribution by the employment trend as calculated by the Ministry of Finance which, unlike the Winter Economic Forecast of the EC, did not use a series of an average annual number of working hours per employee.
Navedena razlika prvenstveno proizlazi iz višeg doprinosa trend zaposlenosti izračunate od strane Ministarstva financija, u kojem, za razliku od Zimskih prognoza EK, nije korištena serija prosječnog godišnjeg broja radnih sati po zaposleniku.
The European Commission uses a series of working hours in its calculations which are available starting from 2008 (numbers from earlier years which are needed for calculation purposes are considered equal to the 2008 values), and we consider these series to be inappropriate due to their brevity for forecasting in the mid-term using ARIMA models, which should be used according to the methodology.
EK u svom izračunu koristi seriju broja radnih sati koje je dostupna počevši od 2008. godine (u ranijim godinama koje su potrebne za izračun uzima se nepromijenjena vrijednost iz 2008. godine), pa smatramo da je zbog svoje kratkoće navedena serija neprikladna za prognoziranje u srednjem roku ARIMA modelima, koje bi po metodologiji trebalo koristiti.
Chart 2.2
Grafikon 2.2.
Comparison of the growth of potential GDP between the European Commission and the Ministry of Finance
Usporedba rasta potencijalnog BDP-a Europske komisije i Ministarstva financija
Central Bureau of Statistics, Eurostat, European Commission, Ministry of Finance
Državni zavod za statistiku, Eurostat, Europska komisija, Ministarstvo financija
During 2015, we achieved a stagnation of the GDP deflator for the second consecutive year while noting negative trends of household consumption deflator with similar intensity, a slight growth of government consumption deflator and reduction of implicit deflators of goods and services exchange, where a faster decline was experienced by the imports of goods and services deflator then the exports deflator.
Tijekom 2015., već drugu godinu zaredom, ostvarena je stagnacija deflatora BDP-a uz zabilježena negativna kretanja deflatora potrošnje kućanstava sličnog intenziteta, blagi rast deflatora državne potrošnje te smanjenja implicitnih deflatora razmjene roba i usluga, pri čemu je brži bio pad deflatora uvoza roba i usluga od deflatora izvoza.
The only significant difference compared to 2014 is in the movement of the investment deflator that, following a reduction in 2014, slightly increased in 2015.
Jedina znatnija razlika u odnosu na 2014. godinu je u kretanju deflatora investicija koji je, nakon smanjenja u 2014., u 2015. blago porastao.
Inflation measured by the consumer price index stood at -0.5% in 2015.
Inflacija mjerena indeksom potrošačkih cijena je iznosila -0,5% u 2015. godini.
The most important deflationary trend factor during 2015 were energy prices, which have decreased by 4.9% compared to 2014.
Najznačajniji čimbenik deflatornih kretanja tijekom 2015. bile su cijene energije, koje su smanjene 4,9% u usporedbi s 2014. godinom.
A decline in energy prices was primarily caused by a significant reduction in crude oil prices on the world market, as well as the administrative reduction in gas prices for households in April 2015 while, from the opposite direction, energy prices were affected by the increase in excise duties on fuel, also in April.
Padu cijena energije prvenstveno je pridonijelo znatno smanjenje cijena sirove nafte na svjetskom tržištu, ali i administrativno smanjenje cijene plina za kućanstva u travnju 2015., dok je u suprotnom smjeru na cijene energije djelovalo povećanje trošarina na goriva, također iz travnja.
If we exclude energy prices from the total consumer price index, 2015 saw a growth of 0.6% of the remaining index components.
Ukoliko se iz ukupnog indeksa potrošačkih cijena isključe cijene energije, u 2015. godini je bio zabilježen rast preostalih komponenti indeksa od 0,6%.
Inflation was slightly higher and amounted to -0.3% when measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
Mjerena harmoniziranim indeksom potrošačkih cijena (HICP), inflacija je bila nešto viša te iznosila -0,3%.
We expect a slow recovery of GDP deflator growth to 1.0% in 2016.
U 2016. godini očekuje se blagi oporavak rasta deflatora BDP-a na 1,0%.
As for its components, we expect a stagnation of the household consumption implicit deflator, i.e., a slight increase of 0.1%, whose projected growth rate is identical to that of the consumer price index.
Što se tiče njegovih komponenti, očekuje se stagnacija implicitnog deflatora potrošnje kućanstava, tj. rast od neznatnih 0,1%, čije je projicirano kretanje identično onom indeksa potrošačkih cijena.
Raw material prices on the world market will continue to be the main inflation factor during 2016, and are expected to further decline, primarily due to a considerate decrease in oil prices.
Glavni čimbenik kretanja inflacije tijekom 2016. godine bit će i dalje cijene sirovina na svjetskom tržištu, za koje se predviđa daljnji pad, prvenstveno uslijed znatnog smanjenja cijena nafte.
On the other hand, the strengthening of household consumption and growth of unit labour costs should contribute to the growth of the consumer price index.
S druge strane, jačanje potrošnje kućanstava i rast jediničnog troška rada trebali bi djelovati u smjeru rasta indeksa potrošačkih cijena.
Therefore, in 2016, we expect a slight acceleration of consumer price index growth to 0.8%, excluding food and energy, stagnation of food prices, while the prices of energy could decrease by 2.7%, and will continue to generate a significant negative contribution to consumer price inflation.
Stoga se u 2016. godini očekuje blago ubrzanje rasta indeksa potrošačkih cijena bez prehrane i energije na 0,8%, stagnacija cijena prehrane, dok bi se cijene energije mogle smanjiti za 2,7%, te će i dalje ostvarivati značajan negativan doprinos inflaciji potrošačkih cijena.
According to the projections of the International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook Update, January 2016), oil prices expressed in US dollars should decrease by 17.6% in 2016, while the prices of food and drinks are expected to decrease by 6.6%.
Prema projekcijama Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (World Economic Outlook Update, siječanj 2016.) cijene nafte izražene u američkim dolarima bi se u 2016. godini trebale smanjiti za 17,6%, dok se kod cijena hrane i pića očekuje smanjenje od 6,6%.
As for the imports of goods and services deflator, its decline will slow down in 2016 as compared to 2015 and will amount to 0.7% due to a slower decrease of the imports of goods deflator, largely as a result of the movement of energy import prices and growth of imports of services deflator.
Što se tiče deflatora uvoza roba i usluga, njegov pad će u 2016. blago usporiti u odnosu na 2015. godinu te iznositi 0,7% uslijed usporavanja pada deflatora uvoza roba, dobrim dijelom kao posljedica kretanja uvoznih cijena energije, te rasta deflatora uvoza usluga.