natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
These positive short term risks are primarily related to possible stronger dynamics of investments by companies in majority state ownership and investments in the construction industry, while the adverse risks associated with the expected growth of aggregate investments are largely related to potentially lower utilization of capital EU funds, higher intensity of fiscal consolidation in connection with investment spending of the general government, but also with less positive effects of efforts for encouraging private investments.
Navedeni pozitivni rizici u kratkom roku odnose se prije svega na moguću snažniju dinamiku investicija poduzeća u većinskom državnom vlasništvu te investicija u građevinskoj djelatnosti dok se nepovoljni rizici vezani uz očekivani rast agregatnih investicija u velikoj mjeri odnose na potencijalno slabije iskorištavanje kapitalnih EU fondova, jači intenzitet fiskalne konsolidacije vezano uz investicijsku potrošnju opće države, ali i slabije pozitivne učinke napora oko poticanja privatnih investicija.
Government spending risks imply different dynamics of fiscal consolidation and are considered to be balanced.
Rizici za državnu potrošnju podrazumijevaju drugačiju dinamiku fiskalne konsolidacije od pretpostavljene i smatraju se uravnoteženima.
As for the projection related to imports of goods and services, except for a stronger growth in domestic demand and changes in inventories and exports of goods and services due to the aforementioned factors, the main cause that could lead to a stronger growth in imports of goods and services is the overrated one-time correction of imports elasticity versus the aggregate demand in 2016, with regard to the analysis of the re-export category impact on the trade of goods described previously.
Što se tiče projekcije uvoza roba i usluga, izuzev jačeg rasta domaće potražnje i promjene zaliha te izvoza roba i usluga od prognoziranog zbog svih prije spomenutih faktora, glavni razlog koji bi mogao dovesti do snažnijeg rasta uvoza roba i usluga je precijenjena jednokratna korekcija uvozne elastičnosti naspram agregatne potražnje u 2016. godini, nastavno na prethodno opisanu analizu utjecaja kategorije re-izvoza na robnu razmjenu.
We should also mention that the value of such imports elasticity which is significantly higher than the value implicitly assumed in these projections would mean considerably higher levels of imports dependence of the domestic economy in the long run, compared to pre-crisis levels, which would represent a serious obstacle to a stronger dynamic of future economic growth.
Ovdje spomenimo još da bi vrijednosti spomenute elastičnosti uvoza u dužem roku znatnije iznad onih implicitno pretpostavljenih u okviru ovih projekcija značile zamjetno višu razinu uvozne ovisnosti domaćeg gospodarstva u odnosu na pred-krizne razine što bi predstavljalo ozbiljnu prepreku snažnijoj dinamici budućeg gospodarskog rasta.
The main risks that could cause a different realization of the forecasted inflation rates are related to the price trends of oil and other raw materials as well as the price trend of kuna, especially against the US dollar, but also achievements in the labour market.
Glavni rizici koji bi mogli uzrokovati drugačije ostvarenje stope inflacije od prognozirane vezani su uz kretanje cijena nafte te ostalih sirovina kao i kretanje tečaja kune, prije svega prema američkom dolaru, ali i ostvarenja na tržištu rada.
Also, different realizations of the projected rate of inflation could cause possible changes in administratively regulated prices.
Također, drugačija ostvarenja stope inflacije od prognozirane mogle bi prouzročiti i eventualne promjene administrativno reguliranih cijena.
Since the described macroeconomic framework has been drafted two months before the development of this document, available high-frequency indicators and new information related to the domestic economy and the international environment show that some negative, but also some positive risks, in part already materialized.
Budući da je od izrade opisanog makroekonomskog okvira do izrade ovog dokumenta prošlo više od dva mjeseca, prema dostupnim visokofrekventnim pokazateljima te novim podacima vezanim za domaće gospodarstvo te međunarodno okruženje proizlazi kako su se neki negativni, ali i pozitivni rizici dijelom već materijalizirali.
We will present a brief analysis of potential changes and their consequences for 2016.
Ovdje dajemo kratku analizu potencijalnih promjena i njihovih posljedica za 2016. godinu.
The most significant changes are related to price trends, while significant deflationary pressures in the domestic economy continued at the start of 2016.
Najznačajnije promjene odnose se na cjenovna kretanja pri čemu su početkom 2016. godine nastavljeni znatni deflatorni pritisci u domaćem gospodarstvu.
The consumer price index decreased in the first three months of 2016 to 1.3% year on year, mainly influenced by energy prices and, to a lesser extent, food prices.
Indeks potrošačkih cijena je u prva tri mjeseca 2016. smanjen 1,3% na međugodišnjoj razini, prvenstveno pod utjecajem cijena energije te, manjim dijelom, cijena hrane.
As a result of the inclusion of administrative reduction in gas prices in April of this year, price trends of raw materials in the world market, as well as the yearly consumer price index to date, we expect a lower inflation rate compared to the previously projected 0.1% in 2016.
Kao posljedica uključivanja administrativnog smanjenja cijena plina iz travnja ove godine, kretanja cijena sirovina na svjetskom tržištu, kao i indeksa potrošačkih cijena u dosadašnjem dijelu godine, u 2016. se očekuje niža stopa inflacije u odnosu na prethodno projiciranih 0,1%.
The updated projected inflation for 2016 would amount to -1.0%, primarily as a result of a significant reduction in energy prices, and to a lesser extent, the reduction in food prices.
Ažurirana projekcija inflacije za 2016. iznosila bi -1,0%, ponajprije kao posljedica znatnog smanjenja cijena energije, te u manjoj mjeri smanjenja cijena prehrane.
Mild negative projection risks still prevail.
Pri tome i dalje blago prevladavaju negativni rizici za takvu projekciju.
It is expected that the price index, excluding food and energy, will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in 2015.
Očekuje se da će indeks cijena bez prehrane i energije nastaviti rasti, iako nešto sporijom dinamikom nego u 2015. godini.
With regard to the developments in the implicit GDP deflator area, updated projections would include, in addition to the described changes to the household consumption deflator (in accordance with the changes of the consumer price index), slightly lower growth estimates for all other of its components including the imports of goods and services deflator, which would result in a growth correction of the GDP deflator to 0.1%.
Što se tiče kretanja implicitnog deflatora BDP-a, ažurirana projekcija uključivala bi, osim opisane promjene deflatora potrošnje kućanstava (u skladu s promjenama indeksa potrošačkih cijena), i blago niže procjene za rast svih ostalih njegovih komponenti uključivši i deflator uvoza roba i usluga, što bi za posljedicu imalo korekciju rasta deflatora BDP-a na 0,1%.
The price reduction of household gas is estimated at around 20%, which implies a negative contribution to the annual change of the consumer price index of 0.4 percentage points.
Smanjenje cijene plina za kućanstva procjenjuje se na oko 20% što implicira negativan doprinos godišnjoj promjeni indeksa potrošačkih cijena od 0,4 postotna boda.
According to the available high-frequency indicators for 2016, we still expect to see a moderate growth in economic activity in the first quarter (identical to previous expectations) and a slightly increased year-on-year activity compared to the last quarter of 2015.
Prema dosad raspoloživim visokofrekventnim pokazateljima za 2016., u prvom tromjesečju i dalje se očekuje umjeren rast ekonomske aktivnosti (identično prethodnim očekivanjima) neznatno više međugodišnje stope u odnosu na posljednje tromjesečje 2015. godine.
By observing the real growth of components on the expenditure side of the GDP in 2016, identical projections of growth with balanced risks would be retained with regard to household consumption, government spending and change of inventories.
Promatrajući realni rast sastavnica s rashodne strane BDP-a u 2016., kod potrošnje kućanstava, državne potrošnje te kategorije promjena zaliha, bile bi zadržane identične projekcije rasta uz uravnotežene rizike.
We also expect that, with regard to the household consumption projection, the described lower inflation would still represent a favorable impact on the dynamics of household consumption through its positive effects on disposable income.
Spomenimo samo kako se, što se tiče prognoze potrošnje kućanstava, procjenjuje da bi opisano niže ostvarenje inflacije ipak predstavljalo povoljan utjecaj na dinamiku potrošnje kućanstava preko svog pozitivnog djelovanja na raspoloživi dohodak.
We should also mention that the retail trade turnover recorded expectedly good results in early 2016.
Također, recimo kako je promet u trgovini na malo početkom 2016. zabilježio očekivano dobre rezultate.
On the other hand, a slight deterioration of all consumer confidence indexes was recorded in early 2016 (however, they are influenced by factors such as the political cycle as well).
S druge strane, primjetno je blago pogoršanje svih indeksa potrošačkog povjerenja početkom 2016. godine (međutim, na njih utječu i čimbenici poput faze političkog ciklusa).
As for the projection of gross fixed capital formations, according to the data collected from the time the original macroeconomic scenario was drafted, some positive risks have materialized.
Što se tiče projekcije bruto investicija u fiksni kapital, prema prikupljenim podacima od vremena izrade originalnog makroekonomskog scenarija ispostavlja se kako je došlo do materijalizacije nekih pozitivnih rizika.
First of all, this includes a newly updated investment plan for companies in majority state ownership, which indicates a real investment growth identical to that in 2015 (14.5% versus 0.6%, which was assumed in the original scenario), in the event that its achievement has been conservatively predicted.
Prije svega se tu misli na novi ažurirani plan investicija poduzeća u većinskom državnom vlasništvu koji ukazuje na realni rast investicija identičan onom u 2015. godini (14,5%, nasuprot 0,6% koliko je pretpostavljeno u originalnom scenariju), u slučaju da se njegovo ostvarenje pretpostavi konzervativno.
In addition, the real growth of general government investments was slightly accelerated to 7.1% and private investments to 1.8%.
Osim toga, ovdje je blago ubrzan realni rast investicija opće države na 7,1% te privatnih investicija na 1,8%.
The final correction is largely related to the surprisingly favorable results in the construction industry, as far as the volume of construction works (especially buildings which, however, showed growth in 2015), as well as leading indicators are concerned.
Zadnja korekcija se najvećim dijelom odnosi na iznenađujuće povoljne rezultate u građevinskoj djelatnosti, što se tiče samog obujma građevinskih radova (posebno zgrada, koje su, doduše, bilježile rast i u 2015.), ali i navješčujućih pokazatelja.
In addition, we should mention that if the preliminary CBS projection on the decline in general government investments would be proven as correct to an extent, it would implicitly raise the dynamics of private investments in 2015, which would have repercussions on the next upward correction of dynamics in 2016.
Osim toga, navedimo i to da, ukoliko bi se preliminarna projekcija DZS-a o padu investicija opće države u određenoj mjeri pokazala točna, to bi implicitno podiglo dinamiku privatnih investicija u 2015. što bi imalo reperkusije i na dodatnu korekciju naviše dinamike istih u 2016. godini.
In conclusion, if we look at these updated projections of individual components (1.8% increase in private investments and 9.3% growth in broader public sector investments - consolidated), we could conclude that the real growth of total investments in 2016 amounts to 3.8%.
Zaključno, kada bi uzeli ovakve ažurirane projekcije pojedinih sastavnica (1,8% rast privatnih investicija te 9,3% rast investicija šireg javnog sektora - konsolidirano) dobili bismo realni rast ukupnih investicija u 2016. godini od 3,8%.
Then, according to the published high-frequency indicators on the export of goods, and according to the downward correction of the economic activity in the international environment, and even more pronounced downward correction of trade at the global level, the current projection of the export of goods and services could amount to 4.8%, whereby the entire correction would relate to the export of goods.
Zatim, prema dosad objavljenim visokofrekventnim pokazateljima o izvozu roba, prema izvjesnoj korekciji naniže ekonomske aktivnosti u inozemnom okruženju, ali i još izraženijem ispravku naniže robne razmjene na globalnoj razini, sadašnja projekcija izvoza roba i usluga mogla bi iznositi 4,8%, pri čemu bi se cjelokupna korekcija odnosila na izvoz roba.
Considering the previously published indicators on the import of goods as well as the aforementioned changes (which would result in a mild acceleration of the final demand by 0.2 percentage points), the projected growth of imports of goods and services could be adjusted to about 5.5%, while assuming a certain upward correction of imports elasticity in relation to demand, and the growth of goods and the growth of services both displayed positive changes.
Uzevši u obzir dosad objavljene pokazatelje o uvozu roba kao i sve gore objašnjene promjene (koje bi rezultirale blagim ubrzanjem finalne potražnje od 0,2 postotna boda), projekcija rasta uvoza roba i usluga mogla bi se korigirati na oko 5,5%, pri čemu je pretpostavljen i određen ispravak elastičnosti uvoza u odnosu na potražnju naviše te su pozitivnu promjenu zabilježili rast roba kao i rast usluga.
All these changes to individual components from the expenditure side of the GDP calculation would lead to a slightly lower rate of real GDP growth, but also cause a 1.1 percentage point lower nominal GDP growth (in the original scenario, GDP growth in current prices amounted to 3.0%), with almost the entire amount related to the correction of GDP deflator growth.
Sve navedene promjene pojedinačnih sastavnica rashodne strane obračuna BDP-a zajedno dovele bi do neznatno niže stope realnog rasta BDP-a, ali i za 1,1 postotni bod nižeg nominalnog rasta BDP-a (u originalnom scenariju rast BDP-a u tekućim cijenama iznosi 3,0%), pri čemu se gotovo cijeli iznos odnosi na korekciju rasta deflatora BDP-a.
It should be noted that the potential loss of a part of the GDP in current prices, although it would necessarily lead to a somewhat different structure of the revenue side of the general government (described price trends would primarily lead to a lower realization of the collected VAT), would not threaten the total amount of tax income and contributions since they have already been planned conservatively, as indicated by the achievements in tax revenue and contributions categories in the first quarter of 2016.
Ovdje treba naglasiti kako ovaj potencijalni gubitak dijela BDP-a u tekućim cijenama, iako bi nužno doveo do nešto drukčije strukture prihodne strane proračuna opće države (prvenstveno bi opisana cjenovna kretanja dovela do nižeg ostvarenja prikupljenog PDV-a), ne bi ugrozio ukupni iznos poreznih prihoda i doprinosa budući da su ionako planirani konzervativno, na što ukazuju i ostvarenja kategorija poreznih prihoda i doprinosa u prvom tromjesečju 2016. godine.
We assumed the realization of investments at the level of 82% of the initial plan, and if we were to assume the realization of the overall plan, real investment growth would amount to nearly 40%.
Pretpostavljeno je ostvarenje investicija na razini od 82% inicijalnog plana, a ako bi se pretpostavilo ostvarenje cjelokupnog plana, realni rast investicija iznosio bi gotovo 40%.
GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET AND PUBLIC DEBT
PRORAČUN OPĆE DRŽAVE I JAVNI DUG
Fiscal policy
Fiskalna politika
Additional recommendations - non-binding
Dodatne preporuke - neobvezujuće
The Economic Programme of the Government of the Republic of Croatia in the forthcoming mid-term period will be based on two key areas: stabilization and reduction of public debt and implementation of appropriate structural reforms in order to strengthen the foundations for growth in the medium term.
Ekonomski program Vlade RH u nastupajućem srednjoročnom razdoblju temeljit će se na naporima u dva ključna područja: stabilizaciji i smanjivanju javnog duga te odgovarajućim strukturnim reformama u svrhu jačanja temelja za rast u srednjem roku.
Stabilization and reduction of public debt will have a triple base:
Sama stabilizacija i smanjenje javnog duga imat će trostruko uporište:
1) fiscal consolidation based on reducing the deficit and of bringing it to a sustainable level; 2) activation of state property that can directly contribute to the reduction of public debt; 3) promoting economic recovery.
1) fiskalna konsolidacija temeljena na smanjenju proračunskog manjka i njegovog dovođenja na održivu razinu; 2) aktivacija državne imovine koja može izravno doprinijeti smanjenju javnog duga; 3) poticanje ekonomskog oporavka.
Special attention will be directed to adapting economic policies in order to comply with fiscal consolidation principles that will not undermine the foundations of economic growth.
Posebna pozornost posvetit će se potrebi prilagodbe ekonomskih politika u svrhu poštivanja načela fiskalne konsolidacije koja neće narušiti temelje za gospodarski rast.
Fiscal consolidation also represents one of the obligations of the Republic of Croatia under the framework for addressing the excessive deficit issue.
Fiskalna konsolidacija također predstavlja jednu od obveza RH u okviru rješavanja prekomjernog proračunskog manjka.
Acting on the proposal of the European Commission (EC), the EU Council of Ministers in January 2014 issued Recommendations which state that the Republic of Croatia must reduce its budget deficit below 3% of the GDP by the end of 2016 and steer the general government debt to a sustainable path by reducing it under 60% of the GDP two years later.
Naime, Vijeće ministara EU je na prijedlog Europske komisije (EK) u siječnju 2014. godine donijelo Preporuke kojima se od RH traži rješavanje prekomjernog proračunskog manjka i to tako da do kraja 2016. godine smanji svoj proračunski manjak ispod 3% BDP-a te dug opće države dovede na putanju smanjenja ispod 60% BDP-a dvije godine kasnije.
The Republic of Croatia is obliged to regularly report to the European Commission on the achieved progress in meeting the aforementioned Recommendations.
RH je obvezna redovito izvještavati EK o napretku u ispunjavanju spomenutih Preporuka.
In this regard, the latest Winter Economic Forecast of the EC shows a negative deviation in relation to set objectives.
U tom smislu, najnovije tj. zimske projekcije EK pokazuju negativno odstupanje u odnosu na postavljene ciljeve.
However, the Government of the Republic of Croatia is committed to making all efforts in order to fulfill the binding Recommendations of the EU Council.
Međutim, Vlada RH je predana provođenju napora u svrhu ostvarenja obvezujućih Preporuka Vijeća EU.
The Financial Report delivered to Eurostat at the end of March of this year indicates a strong positive step forward in terms of reducing budget deficit to 3.2% of the GDP in 2015, which exceeds the Recommendations of the EU Council which stipulates a reduction to 3.5%, and projections published in the Winter Economic Forecast stating a reduction to 4.2% of the GDP.
Fiskalno izvješće dostavljeno Eurostatu krajem ožujka ove godine ukazuje na snažni pozitivni iskorak u smislu smanjenja proračunskog manjka na razinu od 3,2% BDP-a u 2015. godini, što premašuje Preporuku EK od 3,5% BDP-a, odnosno predviđanja EK u zimskim projekcijama od 4,2% BDP-a.
In this regard, the measures of the Government of the Republic of Croatia will focus on fiscal consolidation in the upcoming medium term period, both on the revenue and the expenditure side of the budget.
Kako bi ispunila Preporuke, mjere fiskalne politike RH bit će usmjerene na daljnju fiskalnu konsolidaciju u nadolazećem srednjoročnom razdoblju kako na prihodnoj tako i na rashodnoj strani proračuna.
To this end, the Government of the Republic of Croatia will make further efforts to adjust the fiscal management framework and its harmonization with the provisions and practices of EU legislation.
U tu svrhu, Vlada RH će poduzeti daljnje napore u prilagodbi okvira fiskalnog upravljanja te njegovom usklađivanju s odredbama i praksom EU zakonodavstva.
We will proceed with the amendments to the Fiscal Responsibility Act, including the strengthening of numerical fiscal rules, strengthening the independence of the Fiscal Policy Committee and medium-term budget planning and strategic management of public debt, all in dialogue with the European Commission.
Tako će biti nastavljene aktivnosti na izmjenama Zakona o fiskalnoj odgovornosti, uključujući jačanje numeričkih fiskalnih pravila, jačanje neovisnosti Povjerenstva za fiskalnu politiku i srednjoročnog proračunskog planiranja kao i strateškog upravljanja javnim dugom, a sve u dijalogu s EK.
Continuing medium-term consolidation efforts on the revenue side of the budget will be focused on a comprehensive analysis of the tax system and creating a corresponding legislative proposal in order to establish a stable, sustainable, simple and competitive tax system, strengthening the efficiency of the tax inspection procedure and further enhancing the work of the Tax Administration.
Nastavak konsolidacijskih napora u srednjoročnom razdoblju na prihodnoj strani proračuna bit će usmjeren na sveobuhvatnu analizu poreznog sustava i odgovarajućem prijedlogu novih zakonskih rješenja u svrhu uspostave stabilnog, održivog, jednostavnog i konkurentnog poreznog sustava; jačanju učinkovitosti poreznog nadzora i daljnjem unaprjeđenju rada Porezne uprave.
Among other things, we will continue applying the cash transaction fiscalization system, and reorganizing the Tax Administration according to the results of work performance monitoring processes.
Između ostalog, tako će se nastaviti i s procesom primjene fiskalizacije u prometu gotovinom, s reorganizacijom Porezne uprave sukladno rezultatima praćenja učinkovitosti rada.
Furthermore, the exchange of data on income and other receipts of citizens with other institutions on the basis of Reports on receipt, income tax, surtax and contributions for compulsory insurance (JOPPD form) has also been strengthened.
Nadalje, ojačana je i razmjena podataka o dohotku i ostalim primicima građana s drugim institucijama temeljem obrasca Izvješća o primicima, porezu na dohodak i prirezu te doprinosima za obvezna osiguranja (JOPPD obrazac).
In order to improve the efficiency of the Tax Administration, we improved the risk analysis system and introduced the institute of tax settlements with the aim of shortening the process of tax inspections and faster collection of newly established obligations.
U svrhu poboljšanja učinkovitosti rada Porezne uprave unaprjeđuje se sustav analize rizika te je uveden institut porezne nagodbe s ciljem skraćenja postupka poreznog nadzora i brže naplate novoutvrđenih obveza.
With the introduction of tax treaties, taxpayers will find it easier to settle tax obligations, and the newly developed eOvrhe platform will facilitate a more efficient tax debt management.
Uvođenjem poreznog ugovora olakšava se poreznim obveznicima podmirenje poreznih obveza dok je u svrhu učinkovitog upravlja poreznim dugom razvijena platforma eOvrhe.
Finally, we continue making efforts to eliminate or reduce non-tax payments.
Na kraju, valja spomenuti i nastavak napora s ciljem ukidanja odnosno smanjenja neporeznih davanja.