natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
On the demand side, on the other hand, wages influence inflation through increased purchasing power.
Nasuprot tome, manjak snage testova ujedno znači da pronalaženje kointegracije, unatoč malom uzorku, rezultira snažnim zaključkom.
where estimated t-ratios are given in parenthesis, and ect denotes the deviations from the estimated cointegration relation.
Njima se mjeri stopa po kojoj se svaka endogena varijabla prilagođuje (po razdoblju) kako bi se ispravila kratkotrajna neravnoteža u kointegracijskom vektoru.
In both cases, the sign and size of coefficients are as expected.
Koeficijent prilagodbe u prvoj jednadžbi (u kojoj je lcpi zavisna varijabla) prilično je
This finding is not in line with expectations, but since it is not highly significant (only at the
Nijedna od ostalih endogenih varijabli (plaće, tečaj i novčana ponuda) nije signifikantna kao kratkoročna determinanta inflacije
icant, while both wages and exchange rate are insignificant at conventional levels.
Najprije uključujemo samo loil, bez aktivacijske/deaktivacijske dummy varijable ispred.
This time, however, it does not enter the money supply equation either.
Naime, loil sada negativno utječe na inflaciju, sugerirajući da porast cijena nafte snižava inflaciju.
Results from cointegration and error-correction modelling identified some possible
Rezultati kointegracije i modela korekcije grešaka identificirali su neke moguće izvo
sources of Croatian inflation.
re hrvatske inflacije.
The analysis reveals that there is a long-run relationship between inflation, the exchange rate and wages, in the post-Stabilisation period, but not with the money supply.
Empirijska je analiza pokazala da je u post-stabilizacijskom razdoblju postojao dugoročni odnos između inflacije, tečaja i plaća, ali ne i novčane ponude.
Increases in wages positively influence inflation in the long-run.
Porast plaća pozitivno utječe na inflaciju u dugom roku.
Money does not explain Croatian inflation, implying possibly that monetary policy has been dedicated to other targets.
Novac ne objašnjava hrvatsku inflaciju, što implicira da je monetarna politika bila usmjerena prema drugim ciljevima.
This is, thus, consistent with the endogeneity of money supply to exchange rate targeting, whereby money supply is determined by developments in the foreign exchange market.
To je konzistentno s endogenošću novčane ponude s obzirom na ciljanje tečaja, što znači da je novac određen razvojem na tržištu deviza.
The significance and importance of the nominal exchange rate as a factor in the in
Signifikantnost i važnost nominalnoga efektivnog tečaja kao važnog činitelja infla
The significance and importance of wages as a determinant of inflation is comparable to the findings of Festic (2000) for Slovenia.
Signifikantnost i važnost plaća kao determinante inflacije usporedive su s rezultatima Festić (2000) za Sloveniju.
As for Croatia, our results are comparable to those of Payne (2002) since we all find that inflation was positively influenced by wage growth and currency depreciation in the period under investigation.
Kad je riječ o Hrvatskoj, naši su rezultati slični Payneovima (2002) jer svi nalazimo da su u promatranim razdobljima na inflaciju pozitivno utjecale plaće i deprecijacija valute.
However, in his analysis lagged values of inflation were not important in affecting inflation whereas our results suggest that there was some inflation inertia present.
Razlika je to što Payne utvrđuje da inflacija nije signifikantna s vremenskim pomakom, dok naša analiza pokazuje da postoji inflacijska inercija.
Botric and Cota (2006) also find that the exchange rate is an important determinant of inflation.
Botrić i Cota (2006) također ustanovljuju da je tečaj važna determinanta inflacije.
They, like us, also find evidence of inflation inertia.
Kao i mi, također nalaze da je važna i inflacijska inercija.
Our analysis, on the contrary, reveals that wages are still an important factor in determining inflation.
Naša analiza, pak, otkriva da su plaće još uvijek važan faktor u određivanju inflacije.
Vizek and Broz (2007) also find nominal effective exchange to be a long-run determinant of inflation, together with the mark-up, excess money, and the output gap.
Vizek i Broz (2007) također nalaze da je nominalni efektivni tečaj determinanta inflacije u dugom roku, zajedno s agregatnom maržom, viškom ponude novca i jazom BDP-a.
Their findings differ from ours, in that, firstly, we find the theoretically correct sign on the exchange rate, which indicates that currency depreciation increases prices, and secondly, unlike them, we find that money is not a significant determinant of inflation.
Njihovi se rezultati razlikuju od naših po tome što, prvo, mi nalazimo teoretski točan predznak ispred varijable tečaja koji sugerira da deprecijacija valute povećava inflaciju, i drugo, za razliku od njih, mi nalazimo da novac nije važna determinanta inflacije.
In our sample this is true irrespective of what monetary aggregate is used, M1 or M4.
Posljednji se rezultat u našem uzorku ne mijenja, bez obzira na to koji smo monetarni agregat uključili, M1 ili M4.
Our finding that inflation in Croatia is not strictly related to monetary aggregates growth is found by most authors who investigate Croatian inflation.
Nalaz da inflacija u Hrvatskoj nije izravno povezana s porastom monetarnih agregata u skladu je s rezultatima većine istraživanja o hrvatskoj inflaciji.
The same is true for wages, ceteris paribus.
Isto vrijedi i za plaće, ceteris paribus.
The short-run dynamics of inflation are affected by the previous-period inflation, thus suggesting a degree of inflation inertia in the system.
Na kratkoročnu dinamiku inflacije utječe inflacija iz prethodnog razdoblja, što sugerira da postoji inflacijska inercija.
Other endogenous variables have no short-term effect on inflation.
Ostale endogene varijable nemaju kratkoročni utjecaj na inflaciju.
Currently the whole world is experiencing structural changes which might result in the breaking-up of the previously found long-run relationships.
Dakle, bilo koje buduće istraživanje koje će u svom uzorku obuhvatiti te promjene vjerojatno će trebati uzeti u obzir strukturne prekide.
While most known for its political instability, armed conflicts and civil wars, the re
U svom prikazu knjige Avnera Greifa Institutions and the Path to the Modern Eco
In this book, the author takes the view that the success of institutional reform is an outcome of political struggle between pro-reform and anti-reform coalitions, and that the collapse of Yugoslavia was determined by the strong resistance of the latter to economic, social and political changes.
Možda se to ne bi trebalo smatrati velikim minusom (vjerojatno ovisi o preferencijama čitatelja) jer Greif ipak pokušava odgovoriti na izuzetno teško pitanje zašto su neke zemlje bogate, a druge siromašne.
the analysis of the political aspect of reforms implemented in the Western Balkan countries over the last twenty years.
Ipak, vjerojatno se mogao više potruditi kako bi svoje ideje predstavio na jednostavniji način.
The fifth and sixth chapters are directly focused on structural reforms at the microe
Greif to razilaženje objašnjava institucionalnim razlikama.
On the other hand, in the group of late reformers, prolongation of legislation caused many problems.
One stoga uključuju zakonska pravila i reakcije ljudi na ta pravila.
In the overall process of privatization, the most successful were the early reformers but Serbia is slowly gaining upon them.
Nadalje, iste formalne institucije u različitim kulturološkim kontekstima djeluju drugačije.
In general, the processes of privatization and the entry of new enterprises resulted in an increase of the share of the private sector in each country's economy.
Primjenom teorije igara stvarne situacije ubrzo postaju previše komplicirane za uspješno modeliranje.
According to him these phases did not proceed simultaneously in all countries of the region.
Osim toga, Greif je katkad vrlo isključiv u svom tumačenju povijesti.
In addition to the economic growth of the countries, the author in this chapter also analyses labour market irregularities, the informal economy and the foreign trade of Western Balkan countries both with EU and with each other.
Autor zanemaruje i pitanje kauzalnosti: jesu li institucije stvorile trgovinu ili su mogućnosti trgovanja stvorile poticaje za razvoj institucija koje bi tome pogodovale?
Bartlett explores the main social problems and processes of social sector reform in the region.
Greif pokušava razviti više sociološku i povijesnu verziju teorije racionalnog izbora.
The implementation of structural reforms described in the previous chapter led to a major increase in long-term unemployment, an increase in the informal economy and poverty, as well as a fall in labour market participation rates.
Institucionalnim bi se ekonomistima knjiga mogla svidjeti jer primjenom teorije igara uključuje institucije u ekonomiju, što konačno čini institucionalnu ekonomiju više srednjostrujaškom.
All countries except Croatia have a GDP per capita below the levels in most of the new EU member states, including Romania.
Knjiga bi se ponajprije trebala čitati kao pokušaj razvoja nove metodologije.
The first group includes Croatia, BH, Montenegro and Serbia, and the latter Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia.
Riječ je o izuzetno interdisciplinarnom području i bit će zanimljivo promatrati u kojem će se smjeru ono razvijati.
In addition, the domestic elites in some countries have manipulated donor programs, and this has led to a growth of corruption.
“Contract Enforcement and Institutions among the Maghribi Traders: Refuting Edwards and Ogilvie” [online].
IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON CROATIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS
UTJECAJ IZRAVNIH STRANIH ULAGANJA NA IZVOZ HRVATSKE PRERAÐIVAÈKE INDUSTRIJE
Goran Vukšiæ MSc
Mag. rer. soc. oec.
The exports of Croatian manufacturing industry have been stagnating over the last
Izvoz hrvatske preraðivaèke industrije uglavnom je stagnirao tijekom posljednjih
Over the same period there have been relatively high inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into industry.
U istom razdoblju zabilje en je relativno sna an priljev izravnih stranih ulaganja u industriju.
The aim of this paper is to examine, after controlling for other potentially significant variables, whether these inflows have had an impact on export performance.
Cilj ovog rada jest istra iti je li taj priljev imao utjecaja na izvoz uzimajuæi u obzir i kretanja drugih potencijalno znaèajnih varijabli.
Using the panel data approach for 21 manufacturing industry sectors over the period between 1996 and 2002, it is found that FDI has positively and significantly affected exports, but the extent of this impact was relatively low.
Koristeæi se analizom panel-podataka za 21 preraðivaèku industriju izmeðu 1996. i 2002. godine, pokazalo se da su izravna strana ulaganja pozitivno i statistièki znaèajno utjecala na izvoz, ali je taj utjecaj bio relativno slab.
This implies that there is a potential for improving the export performance of Croatian manufacturing industry by attracting more FDI into this sector.
Iz toga proizlazi da postoji potencijal za poveæanje izvoza privlaèenjem dodatnih stranih ulaganja u industriju.
Policy makers should try to enhance the potential positive effects of FDI by targeting specific export-oriented greenfield foreign investment, and, in addition, implement measures to increase potential spillover effects.
Nositelji gospodarske politike trebali bi pokušati poveæati potencijalne pozitivne uèinke stranih ulaganja ciljajuæi na izvozno orijentirane investicije u novoosnovana poduzeæa i uz to primjenjujuæi mjere koje mogu poveæati potencijalne uèinke “prelijevanja”.
Key words: foreign direct investment, exports, models with panel data, Croatia
Kljuène rijeèi: izravna strana ulaganja, izvoz, Hrvatska, panel-analiza
It was expected that, in such an environment, enterprises would be able to restructure over the medium term and that they would be able successfully to compete in increasingly open domestic, as well as in export, markets.
Oèekivalo se da æe se u takvoj okolini poduzeæa srednjoroèno moæi djelotvorno restrukturirati i postati dovoljno konkurentna da se uspješno natjeèu na sve otvorenijem domaæemu, ali i na izvoznim trištima.
There have been several reasons for stagnating exports over this period, like for example the loss of important export markets in some other former republics of Yugoslavia, war conditions in Croatia and in the wider region, slow and inefficient privatization, low investment levels, too slow integration in the European and world economy, or low export competitiveness.
Nekoliko je uzroka stagnirajuæeg izvoza u tom razdoblju, npr. gubitak va nih izvoznih tr išta u nekim zemljama bivše Jugoslavije, ratni uvjeti u Hrvatskoj i u široj regiji, spora i neefikasna privatizacija, niska razina investicija, prespora integracija u europsko i svjetsko gospodarstvo te niska izvozna konkurentnost.
Since it is accepted that higher exports can contribute to accelerating economic
S obzirom na to da je prihvaæena èinjenica kako poveæanje izvoza mo e pridonije
development (export-led growth strategy), promoting exports has become one of the most important tasks of Croatian economic policy.
ti ubrzanju ekonomskog rasta (export-led growth strategy), promicanje izvoza postalo je jedna od najva nijih zadaæa hrvatske gospodarske politike.
In the case of Croatia, the high trade deficits on the current account of the balance of payments over the last decade underline the priority that should be assigned to export promotion (Stuèka, 2004).
Ono dodatno dobiva na vanosti zbog visokih deficita u robnoj razmjeni na tekuæem raèunu hrvatske bilance plaæanja (Stuèka, 2004).
Several different policy measures can be applied for the accomplishment of this goal.
Postoji nekoliko mjera kojima se mo e pokušati ostvariti poveæanje izvoza.
Many domestic economists argue that the problem primarily arose because of an excessively stringent exchange rate policy and an overvalued exchange rate over the period since the implementation of the stabilization program, and thus propose currency depreciation as a necessary policy measure (Nikiæ, 2003).
Mnogi domaæi ekonomski struènjaci smatraju da je problem nastao zbog prestroge politike teèaja i precijenjene valute u razdoblju nakon stabilizacijskog programa i stoga predla u deprecijaciju kune kao potrebnu mjeru gospodarske politike (Nikiæ, 2003).
On the other hand, some argue that wages rose too fast relative to productivity increases, making the industrial production in Croatia too expensive and thus endangering export competitiveness.
Nasuprot tome, tvrdi se da su plaæe rasle prebrzo u odnosu prema produktivnosti, što je industrijsku proizvodnju u Hrvatskoj uèinilo preskupom i time ugrozilo njezinu izvoznu konkurentnost.
Recent literature and the experience of some other countries indicate that there may
Novija struèna literatura i iskustva drugih zemalja upuæuju na to da priljev izravnih
be export-promoting effects from inward foreign direct investment (FDI).
stranih ulaganja (Foreign Direct Investment - FDI) mo e potaknuti izvoz.
But although Croatia has been relatively successful in attracting foreign investors, as measured in cumulative FDI stock per capita, the stagnating exports over the same period imply that, at the first glance, this has played no role in promoting exports.
Meðutim, iako je Hrvatska bila relativno uspješna u privlaèenju inozemnih ulaganja, mjereno kumulativnim iznosom ulaganja po stanovniku, zbog stagnirajuæeg izvoza u istom razdoblju na prvi se pogled èini da su takvi efekti u nas izostali.
However, more detailed analysis of this relationship is needed, to account for the effects of other potentially important variables before any such conclusion is drawn.
Ipak, potrebna je detaljnija analiza tog odnosa koja bi uzela u obzir i kretanja ostalih potencijalno znaèajnih varijabli prije nego se donese takav zakljuèak.
The first aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the weak export
Primarni cilj ovog rada jest istra iti determinante slabog izvoza u promatranom raz
Among other macroeconomic variables, special attention is given to the role of the increasing FDI stock in Croatian manufacturing industry.
Izmeðu ostalih makroekonomskih varijabli, posebna se pozornost pridaje utjecaju rastuæeg iznosa izravnih stranih ulaganja u hrvatskoj industriji na izvoz.
Some policy measures will be given, which should contribute to building and/or strengthening the link between FDI and exports in future.
Takoðer æe biti predlo ene neke mjere gospodarske politike koje trebaju pridonijeti izgradnji, tj. jaèanju veze izmeðu stranih ulaganja i izvoza u buduænosti.
The structure of the paper is as follows: first, some developments in the Croatian
Struktura rada je sljedeæa: najprije se ukratko opisuju neka kretanja u hrvatskom go
economy relevant for exports and competitiveness are shortly described.
spodarstvu koja su va na za izvoz i konkurentnost.
Afterwards, the theory of as well as some empirical evidence concerning the link between inward FDI and exports is briefly reviewed.
Zatim se daje kratak pregled teorije i empirijskih studija o vezi izmeðu izravnih stranih ulaganja i izvoza.
The fifth section then gives a descriptive representation of the relevant data and states the econometric model that will be tested.
U petom se dijelu opisno prikazuju relevantni podaci i objašnjava ekonometrijski model koji se testira.
The results from the estimations are presented and discussed in the sixth section and the last part gives conclusions and policy recommendations.
Rezultati procjena prezentiraju se i o njima se raspravlja u šestom dijelu, dok zadnji dio donosi zakljuèak i preporuke za ekonomsku politiku.
degree of disagreement among academic economists) that exports can help in accelerating economic growth.
Èinjenica da izvoz mo e ubrzati gospodarski rast opæenito je prihvaæena meðu no
This and the high trade deficits on the current account of the Croatian balance of payments over the last decade are the main reasons why export promotion has become one of the most important economic policy issues in Croatia.
Uz visoki deficit u robnoj razmjeni na tekuæem raèunu hrvatske bilance plaæanja, to su najva niji razlozi zašto je promicanje izvoza postalo jedno od najva nijih pitanja hrvatske ekonomske politike.
In order to better understand the causes of weak export developments in Croatia, some studies on this topic are shortly reviewed.
Radi boljeg razumijevanja uzroka slabog izvoza u Hrvatskoj, slijedi kratak pregled literature o toj temi.
According to Nikiæ (2003), probably the most important reason for stagnating man
Prema Nikiæu (2003), vjerojatno je najva niji uzrok stagniranja izvoza preraðivaèke
ufacturing industry exports has been the overvalued exchange rate.
industrije bio precijenjeni valutni teèaj.
He sees the seeds of overvaluation in the stabilization program from 1993.
Zaèetak te precijenjenosti on vidi u stabilizacijskom programu iz 1993. godine.
In the following months, the exchange rate started to depreciate, but insufficiently to compensate for the preceding rise.
Tijekom sljedeæih mjeseci valuta je poèela deprecirati, ali nedovoljno da bi se kompenzirala prethodna aprecijacija.
As an overall result, inflation has been eliminated successfully, but at the cost of an overvalued exchange rate which, according to Nikiæ (2003), has been too strong burden for industry, which has been prevented from successfully restructuring and cutting the costs of production.
U konaènici je inflacija uspješno eliminirana, ali uz cijenu precijenjene valute, što je prema Nikiæu (2003) bio prevelik teret da bi se industrija uspješno restrukturirala i da bi se smanjili troškovi proizvodnje.
At the end of 1995 there was a strong increase in wages and public expenditures,
Krajem 1995. godine zabilje en je sna niji porast plaæa i javnih rashoda, što je vo
which led to further a deterioration in exporters' competitiveness.
dilo daljnjem smanjenju konkurentnosti izvoznika.
Nikiæ (2003) concludes that at around this time, domestic production was partly substituted for by imported goods.
Nikiæ (2003) zakljuèuje da su otprilike u to vrijeme domaæi proizvodi djelomièno zamijenjeni uvoznom robom.
Also, productivity increases in industry, which mostly arose through a reduction of
Usto, porast produktivnosti u industriji, koji je uglavnom nastao zbog smanjenja
the number of employees, were offset to a great extent by the high increases in wages and public expenditures financed by higher tax burdens.
broja zaposlenih, bio je uvelike poništen visokim porastom plaæa i porastom javnih rashoda financiranih veæim poreznim teretom.
At the same time, the levels of domestic investment and inflows of foreign capital remained relatively low.
Istodobno je razina domaæih investicija, kao i priljev stranog kapitala, bila relativno niska.
Over the whole period, the trade deficit was high, due to stagnating exports and
Takvim kretanjima u prilog išla je i precijenjena domaæa valuta koja je uvoz èinila relativno jeftinim.
Even if the net tourism income completely covered the visible trade deficit, it cre
Èak i kada bi neto prihodi od turizma u potpunosti pokrivali robni deficit, turizam
ates mostly seasonal employment and is also very sensitive to reversals in “tourism fashion” and security crises, and thus, cannot replace all of the potential benefits of stronger export performance (Stuèka, 2004).
stvara uglavnom sezonsku zaposlenost i vrlo je osjetljiv na promjene u “turistièkoj modi” i na sigurnosne krize, te stoga ne mo e ostvariti sve potencijalne koristi sna nijeg porasta izvoza (Stuèka, 2004).
Nikiæ (2003) argues that depreciation is needed in order to change these develop
Nikiæ (2003) tvrdi da je deprecijacija nu na kako bi se ta kretanja promijenila.
However, Babiæ (2002) shows, using time series analysis, that the exchange rate is a weak explanatory variable of Croatian exports.
Babiæ (2002), koristeæi se analizom vremenskih nizova, pokazuje da kretanja deviznog teèaja slabo objašnjavaju kretanja hrvatskog izvoza.
These rather limited potential benefits have to be compared to several possible adverse effects.
Te prilièno limitirane potencijalne korisne uèinke treba usporediti s nekoliko moguæih negativnih uèinaka.
The first one, emphasized by both Nikiæ (2003) and Stuèka (2004), is the potential instability through depreciation via an inflationary spiral, which can also offset all the benefits of depreciation for exporters.
Prvi takav uèinak koji naglašavaju i Nikiæ (2003) i Stuèka (2004) jest potencijalna nestabilnost zbog deprecijacije uzrokovane inflacijskom spiralom, koja takoðer mo e poništiti sve pozitivne uèinke deprecijacije za izvoznike.
In addition, both authors also recognize that the Croatian economy is strongly characterized by currency substitution (“euroization”).
Nadalje, oba autora navode da je hrvatsko gospodarstvo sna no karakterizirano valutnom supstitucijom (“euroizacijom”).
This has led to a high level of indexed debt (initially to the German mark, then to the Euro) held by households and enterprises (Stuèka, 2004), meaning that a depreciation would have strong redistribution effects (from debtors to creditors) and is politically questionable as a means of achieving economic policy goals.
To je dovelo do visoke razine indeksiranog duga kuæanstava i poduzeæa, u poèetku prema njemaèkoj marki, kasnije prema euru (Stuèka, 2004), što znaèi da bi deprecijacija imala sna ne redistributivne uèinke (od du nika ka vjerovnicima) i zbog toga je politièki upitna kao sredstvo za ostvarivanje ekonomsko-politièkih ciljeva.
In the more extreme scenario, it could also lead to instability of the financial system if many debtors become unable to pay back their loans.
U ekstremnijem scenariju deprecijacija bi mogla dovesti i do nestabilnosti financijskog sustava ako znatan broj du nika ne bi više bio sposoban vraæati kredite.