natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
For other models usually the null hypothesis of the Hausman test cannot be rejected, which means that random effects estimators are more effective than the fixed effects estimators.
Za ostale modele nulta hipoteza Hausmanova testa obično ne može biti odbačena, što znači da su procjenitelji sa slučajnim učincima efikasniji nego procjenitelji s fiksnim učincima.
Using the Hausman test we compared within and HT estimators and did not reject null hypothesis of consistency of HT estimates for every model.
Pokazalo se, međutim, da su druge grupe važne za objašnjavanje ROA u modelima sa slučajnim individualnim učincima.
Thus, classifying banks into groups could improve the explanation and prediction of ROA at the individual bank level as well as at the banking sector level.
Štoviše, parametri istih nezavisnih varijabli za različite se grupe značajno razlikuju od modela do modela.
Moreover, the parameters of the same explanatory variables differ significantly among the models for different groups.
Korisnost strateških grupa za objašnjavanje kvalitete kredita mjerene kreditima s ne
At the 5% level irregular loans in banks from the universal group are not statistically different than in other groups.
Na 5-postotnoj razini krediti s neredovitom otplatom u bankama iz univerzalne grupe, statistički gledano, ne razlikuju se od istih kredita u drugim grupama.
Therefore, we conclude that the mortgage, corporate and car industry groups do not help in explaining the share of irregular loans.
Stoga zaključujemo da grupa hipotekarnih banaka, banaka koje (uglavnom) posluju s poslovnim subjektima i grupa banaka za financiranje (kupnju) automobila ne pomažu u objašnjavanju udjela kredita s neredovitom otplatom.
There were many changes in the loan classification criteria during the analysed period, which created structural breaks.
Bilo je mnogo promjena kriterija klasifikacije kredita tijekom promatranog razdoblja, što je stvorilo strukturalne lomove u podacima.
Furthermore, banks in Poland did not write off lost loans from their balance sheets for tax reasons, which may lead to the problems with stationarity of the variables.
Nadalje, banke u Poljskoj zbog poreznih razloga nisu otpisale izgubljene kredite iz bilanci, što može prouzročiti probleme sa stacionarnosti varijabli.
In fact, recently Głogowski (2008) has found evidence of the usefulness of our classification of banks into groups in modelling loan port folio quality using another variable, namely, net flow of loan loss provisions, which is in Poland a more stable-over-time measure of loan quality.
Nedavno je Glogowski (2008) pronašao dokaze korisnosti naše klasifikacije banaka u grupe pri modeliranju kvalitete kreditnog portfelja koristeći se drugom varijablom - neto tijekovima rezervacija za kreditne rizike, koja je u Poljskoj stabilnija mjera kvalitete kredita tijekom vremena.
Application of HT estimator has even broadened the set of groups that are, significant in explaining differ ences in non-interest income between banks.
Primjena HT procjenitelja čak je proširila skup grupa koje su signifikantne za objašnjenje razlika u nekamatnom prihodu banaka.
Perhaps, a more reliable and comparable set of data on loan portfolio quality, e.g. collected in line with recently introduced IFRS reporting standards, is needed.
Stoga naša klasifikacija banaka u grupe također može biti od velike pomoći u modeliranju nekamatnog prihoda.
Following the analysis the panel regression analysis and using the KolmogorovSmirnov test we can make a statement that the classification of banks into strategic groups improves modelling of the banking sector profitability in terms of return on assets and net interest income.
Nakon regresijske analize s panelnim podacima i primjenom Kolmogorov-Smornovljeva testa možemo zaključiti da klasifikacija banaka u strateške grupe unaprjeđuje modeliranje profitabilnosti bankarskog sektora definiranoga uz pomoć pokazatelja povrata na imovinu i neto kamatnog prihoda.
Thus, it should also im prove the forecasting performance of the banking sector earnings.
Stoga bi također trebalo unaprijediti i prognoziranje zarade bankarskog sektora.
Moreover, the significance of group variables and the significant differences among the parameters of the same explanatory variables across the models for different groups suggest that the identified groups differ both in performance and in the way the banks allocated to particular groups react to the shocks to keep earnings on predefined levels.
Štoviše, signifikantnost grupnih varijabli i signifikantne razlike među parametarima istih nezavisnih varijabli u modelima za različite grupe upućuju na zaključak da se identificirane grupe razlikuju i po uspješnosti poslovanja i po načinima na koje banke alocirane u različite grupe reagiraju na šokove radi zadržavanja dobiti na unaprijed definiranim razinama.
The breakdown of banks into groups did not help, however, in modelling the quality of loan portfolios as measured by the share of irregular loans in total loans but the issue should be investigated more deeply.
Podjela banaka u grupe ne pomaže u modeliranju kvalitete kreditnog portfelja mjerene udjelom kredita s neredovitom otplatom u ukupnim kreditima, ali bi taj problem trebalo detaljnije istražiti.
“Hierarchical Grouping to Optimize an Objective Function”.
that adopt similar business strategies.
REFORM OF THE STABILITY AND GROWTH PACT
REFORMA PAKTA O STABILNOSTI I RASTU
UDC 327.56(4-12) JEL E50, E62
UDK 327.56(4-12) JEL E50, E62
In conditions of the single monetary policy and the decentralised fiscal policy in the
U uvjetima jedinstvene monetarne politike i decentralizirane fiskalne politike u Eu
European Monetary Union (EMU) it is necessary for the coordination of macroeconomic policy to be strengthened.
ropskoj monetarnoj uniji (EMU) nužna je pojačana koordinacija makroekonomske politike.
The Treaty on European Union imposes conditions that relate to the size of the budgetary deficit and the public debt as criteria for the introduction of the euro in a given country.
Ugovor o Europskoj uniji kao uvjete za uvođenje eura postavlja i kriterije koji se odnose na veličinu proračunskog manjka i javnog duga.
The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) sets the fiscal framework of the European Monetary Union based on rules underpinned by these criteria.
Pakt o stabilnosti i rastu na temelju tih kriterija postavlja fiskalni okvir EMU utemeljen na pravilima.
The objective of this paper is to describe the recent reform of the Stability and Growth Pact that arose as a result of deficiencies observed in the original version of the Pact of 1997.
Cilj je ovoga rada opisati nedavnu reformu Pakta o stabilnosti i rastu koja je nastala kao rezultat uočenih manjkavosti originalne verzije Pakta iz 1997. godine.
Key words: Stability and Growth Pact, European Monetary Union, coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, fiscal rules
Ključne riječi: Pakt o stabilnosti i rastu, Europska monetarna unija, koordinacija monetarne i fiskalne politike, fiskalna pravila
A unique feature of the Economic and Monetary Union consists of the centralised
Jedinstvenu značajku Ekonomske i monetarne unije čine centralizirana monetarna
Healthy public finances contribute to the achievement and maintenance of price stability and hence of sustainable economic growth.
Stoga su na razini EU definirana i postavljena zajednička pravila za vođenje fiskalne politike na nacionalnim razinama.
In the less than a decade that Member States and EU institutions have had experience
U manje od desetljeća, koliko zemlje članice i institucije EU imaju iskustva s odre
with the provisions of the SGP, the need for the existence of such a fiscal framework has been confirmed.
dbama Pakta o stabilnosti i rastu, potvrđena je potreba za postojanjem takvog fiskalnog okvira.
But during its use several flaws have shown up, which set off more fundamental study of the way it functions and the role of fiscal rules in the monetary union and finally led to the need for reform.
No tijekom “njegove upotrebe” očitovali su se njegovi nedostaci, koji su potaknuli temeljitije proučavanje njegova funkcioniranja i uloge fiskalnih pravila u monetarnoj uniji te konačno doveli do potrebe za reformom.
The objective of this paper is to describe reform of the fiscal framework of the EU that occurred in 2005.
Cilj ovoga rada jest opis reforme fiskalnog okvira EU koja se dogodila 2005. godine.
After the introduction, in part two of the paper, a brief description is given of the
Nakon ovog uvodnog dijela, u drugom dijelu rada ukratko se opisuju pravila koja se
rules that relate to the sustainability of public finances in the EU, in which a distinction is made between the Treaty on European Union and the Stability and Growth Pact, which is at the same time an introduction into part three of the paper.
odnose na održivost javnih financija u EU, pri čemu se razlikuju Ugovor o Europskoj uniji i Pakt o stabilnosti i rastu, što je ujedno i svojevrstan uvod u treći, središnji dio rada.
This section discusses the circumstances in which modifications to the Pact occurred, reforms of the Pact are described, and the basic features of the reform are discussed.
U tom se dijelu opisuju okolnosti u kojima su nastale izmjene Pakta, opisuje se reforma Pakta i obrađuju osnovne značajke te reforme.
The final part of the paper provides a conclusion.
Zaključak je dan u završnom dijelu rada.
This risk is reflected in the likelihood that a government with a high debt-toGDP ratio might prefer a high rate of inflation and in this way reduce the real value of the public debt.
Taj se rizik odražava u mogućnosti da država s višim udjelom duga u BDP-u može preferirati višu stopu inflacije jer se na taj način smanjuje realna vrijednost javnog duga.
The Treaty includes a written definition of fiscal policy that supports the common monetary policy:
U Ugovoru je zapisana svojevrsna definicija fiskalne politike koja podržava zajedničku monetarnu politiku.
The understanding that sound public finances are a necessary condition for the
Shvaćanje da su zdrave javne financije nužan uvjet za postizanje i očuvanje ukupne
achievement and preservation of overall macroeconomic stability entailed the need for a stable framework for fiscal policy based on the rules.
makroekonomske stabilnosti nametnuo je potrebu za stabilnim okvirom fiskalne politike utemeljenim na pravilima.
The final agreement on the wording of the Stability and Growth Pact was achieved in 1997.
Konačan dogovor o tekstu Pakta o stabilnosti i rastu postignut je 1997. godine.
Fiscal discipline will enable states that have introduced the euro to strengthen the conditions for price stability and sustainable growth and will contribute to the preservation of the economic environment in which the common monetary policy can be devoted to achieving price stability.
Zemljama koje su uvele euro fiskalna disciplina omogućuje jačanje uvjeta za stabilnost cijena i održiv rast te pridonosi očuvanju ekonomskog okruženja u kojemu se zajednička monetarna politika može posvetiti postizanju stabilnosti cijena.
The SGP defines in more detail the definitions of the Treaty on European Union and
Pakt o stabilnosti i rastu pobliže opisuje odrednice Ugovora o EU i definira zdravu fi
Such a fiscal position would enable sufficient space within normal cyclical fluctuations for the fiscal deficit to be maintained within the borders of the reference value of 3% of GDP.
bi fiskalna pozicija trebala omogućiti dovoljno prostora da se unutar normalnih cikličkih fluktuacija fiskalni manjak uspije održati u granicama referentne vrijednosti od 3% BDP-a.
The Pact also states the role of the automatic stabilisers at the national level, which, in the conditions of the loss of the instrument of the exchange rate, help economies
U Paktu je također naglašena uloga automatskih stabilizatora na nacionalnoj razini, koji u uvjetima gubitka instrumenta deviznog tečaja pomažu gospodarstvima da se prilagode asimetričnim šokovima.
The documents that members of the EMU and members of the EU that have not yet
Dokumenti koje članice EMU i članice EU koje još nisu uvele euro pripremaju radi
introduced the euro prepare for the sake of the prevention of excessive deficits or in multilateral surveillance of public finances are the stability programmes and the convergence programmes.
prevencije prekomjernih deficita odnosno u multilateralnom nadgledanju javnih financija jesu programi stabilnosti i programi konvergencije.
These programmes must represent the medium-term objective of the budgetary position and, if necessary, describe the way to reach such a position.
Ti programi moraju predstaviti srednjoročni cilj proračunske pozicije i prema potrebi opisati put do takve pozicije.
The mainstay of the corrective part of the Pact is the excessive deficit procedure (EDP), which is defined in the Maastricht Treaty, and explained by the Council regulation, of which there will be more later on in this paper.
Okosnica korektivnog dijela Pakta jest procedura pri prekomjernom deficitu (EDP), koja je utvrđena Ugovorom iz Maastrichta i objašnjena Uredbom Vijeća, o čemu će više riječi biti u nastavku teksta.
In November 2003 the Council of the EU determined to suspend the EDP for Ger
U studenome 2003. godine Vijeće EU odlučilo je ukinuti proceduru pri prekomjer
many and France, thus ignoring the recommendation of the European Commission that both countries should adopt fiscal consolidation measures.
nom deficitu za Njemačku i Francusku te tako ignorirati preporuku Europske komisije da obje zemlje usvoje mjere fiskalne konsolidacije.
After this move of the Council, the European Commission referred to the European Court of Justice, for the Council of the EU had violated the procedure laid down in the provisions of the Pact.
Nakon tog poteza Vijeća, Europska komisija obratila se Europskom sudu pravde jer je Vijeće EU time prekršilo proceduru utvrđenu uredbama Pakta.
This case was the culmination of several years of difficulties in implementing the
Taj je slučaj bio kulminacija višegodišnjih problema u provođenju Pakta.
The basic problem was the fact that the threat to impose sanctions was not credible.
problem bila je činjenica što prijetnja nametanja sankcija nije vjerodostojna.
One of the main criticisms directed at the original version of the Pact was, then, its poor enforceability.
Jedna od glavnih kritika upućenih originalnoj verziji Pakta bila je, dakle, slaba provedivost.
However, the process of fiscal consolidation at the beginning of 1999 was not completed.
Međutim, proces fiskalne konsolidacije na početku 1999. nije bio završen.
The same thing applied to public debts: although the levels of public debt had started to decrease, they were nevertheless, in a large number of countries, still considerably above the 60% of GDP level.
Slično je bilo i s javnim dugom: premda su se razine javnog duga počele smanjivati, one su ipak u velikom broju zemalja bile znatno iznad 60% BDP-a.
Notwithstanding the propitious economic climate at the very beginning of the creation
Unatoč povoljnoj ekonomskoj klimi na samom početku stvaranja EMU, većina zema
of the EMU, most countries did not manage to carry on the process of budgetary consolidation.
lja nije uspjela nastaviti proces proračunske konsolidacije.
There was also a difference between the larger and smaller states in the Unionwhile some of the smaller countries had managed to achieve a balanced budgetary position, most of the big countries of the eurozone did not manage to improve their cyclically-adjusted budgetary positions.
Pritom postoji i razlika između velikih i malih država u Uniji - dok je dio manjih država članica uspio postići uravnoteženu proračunsku poziciju, većina velikih zemalja eurozone nije uspjela poboljšati svoje ciklički prilagođene proračunske pozicije.
In the last few years a slowdown in the growth of GDP was considered the main factor in the weakening of the budgetary positions of the old Member States of the EU.
Posljednjih se godina usporavanje rasta BDP-a smatra glavnim čimbenikom slabljenja proračunskih pozicija starih država članica EU.
However, this development can also be linked with the discretionary fiscal measures, and the deficiency of political will.
Međutim, takav se razvoj djelomično može povezati i s diskrecijskim fiskalnim mjerama te s nedostatkom političke volje.
Not long after the Council had announced that there was a need to strengthen and clar
Nedugo nakon što je Vijeće objavilo da postoji potreba za jačanjem i objašnjenjem
The basic feature of the reform of the SGP is that the quantitative constraints of the
Temeljna značajka reforme SGP-a jest to da kvantitativna ograničenja originalnog
original Pact - a budgetary deficit of at most 3% of GDP and a public debt of at most 60% of GDP - were to remain unchanged.
Pakta - proračunski deficit od najviše 3% BDP-a i javni dug od najviše 60% BDP-aostaju nepromijenjeni.
Central elements of reform also include the requirement for the strengthening of the
U središnje elemente reforme pripada zahtjev za jačanjem fiskalnih pozicija tijekom
fiscal positions during “good years”, good years being considered those in which GDP was above the potential level.
“dobrih godina”, pri čemu se dobrim godinama smatraju one u kojima je BDP iznad potencijalne razine.
In this part of the fiscal framework there is a special emphasis on the aim of the reform being to take early corrective measures - it is anticipated that countries should, during good years, reduce their budgetary deficit by 0.5 percentage points of GDP.
U tom se dijelu fiskalnog okvira posebno naglašava kako je cilj reforme poduzeti rane korektivne mjere - predviđeno je da zemlje tijekom “dobrih godina” smanjuju svoj proračunski manjak za 0,5 postotnih bodova BDP-a.
It is also envisaged that the minimum budgetary effort in years of economic upswing should be greater than this, while in periods of low growth or recession it could be lower.
Također se očekuje da minimalni proračunski napor u godinama gospodarskog uzleta bude veći od navedenoga, dok u razdobljima niskog rasta ili recesije on može biti i manji.
The Council also managed to broker an agreement on the treatment of structural re
Vijeće je također postiglo dogovor o tretmanu strukturnih reformi koje u kratkom
forms that in the short term tended to lead to deterioration in public finances, but over the long term would improve their sustainability.
roku djeluju na pogoršanje javnih financija, ali dugoročno unapređuju njihovu održivost.
They were to be taken into consideration in the definition of the path to achieving the medium-term objective for those countries that had not yet achieved it and for those that temporarily did not comply with it.
One će se uzimati u obzir pri definiranju načina postizanja srednjoročnog cilja za one države koje ga još nisu ostvarile i za one koje od njega privremeno odstupaju.
Only those structural reforms that had direct long-term effects on cost reduction could be taken into consideration, an additional condition being that the 3% of GDP constraint be still respected, and that during a programme period of four years the budgetary position be returned to the medium-term objective.
U obzir se mogu uzeti samo one strukturne reforme koje imaju izravne dugoročne učinke na smanjenje troškova, i to uz uvjet da se i dalje poštuje ograničenje od 3% BDP-a, te da se tijekom programskog razdoblja od četiri godine proračunska pozicija vrati srednjoročnom cilju.
This rule particularly referred to the reforms of the pension funds of the Member States.
To se pravilo posebno odnosi na reforme mirovinskih fondova država članica.
The early warning system was part of the preventive elements into which changes
Dio preventivnih elemenata u koji su unesene promjene jest i sustav ranog upozore
In the Report of the EU Council on improvement of the implementation of the SGP it is said that for the strengthening of the preventive character of the Pact, it is necessary to explain and expand the existing early warning mechanism.
U Izvješću Vijeća EU o unapređenju primjene Pakta o stabilnosti i rastu stoji kako je za jačanje preventivnog karaktera Pakta potrebno objasniti i proširiti postojeći mehanizam ranog upozorenja.
From this point of view, it was provided for that the European Commission should directly, without any involvement of the Council, give policy advice to those in charge of economic policy concerned with the realisation of the agreed on medium-term budgetary objective.
U tom je smislu predviđeno da Europska komisija izravno, bez upletanja Vijeća, dade prijedlog (policy advice) nositeljima ekonomske politike za ostvarenje dogovorenoga srednjoročnog proračunskog cilja.
However, the European Commission will be able to issue these early warning notices only when the EU Constitution has come into force.
Međutim, Europska će komisija moći izdavati rano upozorenje tek nakon stupanja Ustava EU na snagu.
The Council pointed out that the EDP, whatever the changes, had to remain simple, transparent, equitable, and lead to a rapid adjustment of the deficit.
Vijeće naglašava kako EDP, uza sve promjene, mora ostati jednostavan, transparentan, pravedan, i voditi brzoj korekciji deficita.
Just like “other relevant factors”, so the redefined concept of a serious fall of economic activity can be applied only on condition that it refers to a budgetary deficit close to the reference value and, in addition, temporary in its nature (see below).
Jednako kao i “ostali bitni čimbenici”, tako se i ponovno definirani koncept ozbiljnog pada ekonomske aktivnosti može primijeniti samo uz uvjet da je riječ o proračunskom manjku koji je blizu referentne vrijednosti i privremen (v. dolje).
The modified Pact contains several situations in which exceeding the budgetary limit
U izmijenjenom Paktu postoji više situacija u kojima će se tolerirati prekoračenje pro
These are structural reforms and “other relevant factors” including expenditures for research and development, objectives of European policy (particularly in the context of accomplishing the Lisbon strategy), international solidarity, capital investment, reforms of the pension systems and extremely high EU dues.
To su strukturne reforme te “ostali bitni čimbenici” u koje su uključeni izdaci za istraživanja i razvoj, ciljevi europske politike (posebno u kontekstu ostvarivanja Lisabonske strategije), međunarodna solidarnost, kapitalni rashodi, reforme mirovinskih sustava i iznimno visoka davanja za namjene EU.
Furthermore, excessive deficit, except in cases when the economy slowed down very considerably or of recession would be permissible in cases of a “protracted period of economic stagnation” and “very low growth”.
Prema izmijenjenom Paktu, prostor za interpretaciju ozbiljnog pada ekonomske aktivnosti širi je - takav je primjer negativne stope rasta ili akumuliranog pada BDP-a tijekom razdoblja niskog rasta s obzirom na potencijal.
In favour of such an opinion is the fact that a fairly broad scope of interpretation can be applied to other relevant factors, and so member countries are themselves entitled to consider certain factors important and thus to be taken into account in the EDP.
ske pozicije, posebno o naporima za postizanje fiskalne konsolidacije u “dobrim godinama”; o održivosti javnog duga; o javnim investicijama i ukupnoj kvaliteti državnih financija.
A new departure introduced by the revised Pact is that it is possible to retake steps in the EDP.
Novost koju uvodi revidirani Pakt jest mogućnost ponavljanja koraka u proceduri pri prekomjernom deficitu.
The first recommendation of the Council that an excessive deficit should be corrected, and a later warning that effective measures should be taken to reduce the deficit, can be repeated and reshaped if during the course of the current EDP there were some unexpected negative economic trends and if a member state had applied certain earlier recommendations that nevertheless did not result in a reduction of the deficit.
Prva preporuka Vijeća da se korigira prekomjerni deficit, kao i kasnije upozorenje da se poduzmu učinkovite mjere za smanjenje manjka, mogu se ponoviti i preoblikovati ako je tijekom tekuće procedure pri prekomjernom deficitu došlo do neočekivanih negativnih ekonomskih kretanja te ako je država članica primijenila ranije preporuke koje ipak nisu rezultirale smanjenjem manjka.