natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Other adverse effects of a currency devaluation mentioned by Stuèka (2004) include a fall in real domestic income due to the increase in import prices; potential sensitiveness of industries to increases in import prices of intermediate goods; a shift of resources to the tradable sector, possibly causing a wage gap and resulting in higher unemployment; and adverse impact on public finances through the increased domestic currency cost of debt servicing.
Ostali negativni uèinci devalvacije valute koje spominje Stuèka (2004) jesu npr. pad realnih domaæih prihoda zbog poveæanja cijena uvoznih proizvoda, potencijalna osjetljivost industrije na porast cijena uvoznih intermedijarnih proizvoda, preusmjeravanje resursa u sektor proizvodnje roba kojima se trguje na meðunarodnom tr ištu, što moe dovesti do poveæanja razlika u plaæama i veæe nezaposlenosti, te negativan utjecaj na javne financije zbog poveæanog troška (u domaæoj valuti) servisiranja duga.
All of the above arguments lead to the conclusion that currency devaluation can
Svi navedeni argumenti upuæuju na to da devalvacija valute teško mo e proizvesti
Another instrument which cannot be implemented in order to improve the present situation is administrative import barriers, which are unacceptable due to international agreements in force and the Croatian commitment to stronger integration in the European and world economies.
Još jedan instrument koji se ne mo e iskoristiti za poboljšanje trenutaène situacije jesu administrativne uvozne barijere, koje su neprihvatljive zbog va eæih meðunarodnih ugovora i hrvatske odluènosti da se sna nije integrira u europsko i svjetsko gospodarstvo.
All other export-promoting measures, broadly speaking, should improve the productivity of the enterprises and lower the costs of production.
Sve ostale mjere za poticanje izvoza trebale bi poboljšati produktivnost poduzeæa i smanjiti troškove proizvodnje.
One of the most important reasons for the weak export development was the slow
Jedan od najva nijih razloga slabog izvoza bila je spora integracija hrvatske ekono
integration of the Croatian economy into the European and the world economy, i.e. a
mije u europsko i svjetsko gospodarstvo, tj. relativno niska razina trgovinske liberaliza
This is an important obstacle for strong export performance.
To je bila velika prepreka porastu izvoza.
They stress the importance of export competitiveness, in which they give special attention to wages and productivity and unit labor costs.
Oni istièu va nost izvozne konkurentnosti, pri èemu posebnu pozornost pridaju plaæama, produktivnosti i jediniènim troškovima rada.
They argue that the role of exchange rate changes, unit labor cost changes, as well as wage levels (in international comparisons) was not that important in determining export performance in Croatia between 1995 and 2001.
Tvrde da devizni teèaj, kao ni plaæe (u meðunarodnoj usporedbi), nisu znaèajno utjecali na kretanje hrvatskog izvoza izmeðu 1995. i 2001. godine.
This finding is supported by conclusions from Švigir (2004), who analyzes the export performance of groups of different manufacturing industries and the average productivity and wage developments within these groups.
Posljednje potvrðuje i Švigir (2004), koji je analizirao izvoz grupa razlièitih preraðivaèkih industrija te prosjeènu produktivnost i kretanja plaæa unutar tih grupa.
However, both of these studies, as well as the conclusions from Nikiæ (2003), are based on more or less simple observations of simple correlation coefficients.
Meðutim, obje spomenute studije, kao i zakljuèci Nikiæa (2003), zasnovane su na relativno jednostavnim opservacijama koeficijenata korelacije.
Needless to say, more rigorous econometric investigation is needed in order to assess the determinants of Croatian exports.
Ne treba posebno isticati da je potrebno rigoroznije ekonometrijsko istra ivanje radi odreðivanja determinanti hrvatskog izvoza.
Except for the potential export determinants mentioned above, there is another
Osim navedenih potencijalnih determinanti izvoza, postoji još jedna potencijalno
potentially important variable which has not yet been analyzed at all in this context for Croatia.
znaèajna varijabla koja za Hrvatsku do sada nije bila analizirana u promatranom kontekstu.
It is widely accepted that inward foreign direct investment may influence a host country's export performance.
Opæenito je prihvaæeno shvaæanje da priljev izravnih stranih ulaganja mo e utjecati na izvoz zemlje primateljice ulaganja.
Again, more careful econometric examination of this potential link is needed in order to account for the influences of other important variables.
S obzirom na to da je izvoz istodobno stagnirao, na prvi bi se pogled moglo zakljuèiti da strana ulaganja nisu promotivno utjecala na izvoz.
Before the data are examined and the econometric model is presented, the relevant theory about FDI and trade is briefly reviewed in the next section.
Ponovno treba spomenuti da je potrebna pa ljivija ekonometrijska analiza te potencijalne veze kojom bi se uzela u obzir i kretanja drugih va nih varijabli.
3 Theory on foreign direct investment and exports
3. Teorija o izravnim stranim ulaganjima i izvozu
In a standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model (H-O-S), the factor prices will
U standardnome modelu tipa Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (H-O-S), cijene faktora
equalize even if there is only trade in goods and there are no factor movements at all.
proizvodnje izjednaèavaju se èak i ako postoji samo trgovina robama, a faktori proizvodnje nisu mobilni.
This result is known as the factor price equalization theorem.
Taj je rezultat poznat pod nazivom teorem izjednaèavanja cijena faktora proizvodnje.
In a way, countries would be trading the factors of production indirectly - embodied in the traded goods.
Na neki naèin zemlje trguju faktorima proizvodnje neizravno - oni su sadr ani u robama kojima se trguje.
In this case trade and factor movements are obviously substitutes.
U tom primjeru meðunarodna trgovina i kretanje faktora proizvodnje oèitno su supstituti.
This would also be true if only factors were mobile, and if there were no trade in goods.
Tako bi bilo i u situaciji u kojoj su mobilni samo faktori proizvodnje, a nema trgovine robama.
Then there would still be a tendency for equalization of the commodity prices.
Još bi uvijek postojala tendencija za izjednaèavanjem cijena roba.
The reason for this is that in the HO-S model, trade arises because of the differences in factor endowments between the countries.
Razlog tome je èinjenica da se u H-O-S modelu trgovina ostvaruje zbog razlika u postojeæim kolièinama raznih faktora proizvodnje u razlièitim zemljama.
Subsequent research has shown that if additional assumptions are included into the standard models, it is possible for factor movements and international trade to become complements.
Kasnija su istra ivanja pokazala da se ukljuèivanjem nekih dodatnih pretpostavki u standardne modele mo e postiæi da odnos izmeðu meðunarodne trgovine i kretanja faktora proizvodnje bude komplementaran.
Different ways of achieving this result include allowing for differences in technologies and preferences across countries, introducing production taxes, a monopoly market structure and external economies of scale (see Goldberg and Klein (2000) for an overview of relevant research).
Neke su od tih pretpostavki npr. razlièite tehnologije i razlièite preferencije u razlièitim zemljama, porezi na proizvodnju, monopoli, vanjska ekonomija obujma itd. (Goldstein i Klein (2000) daju pregled relevantnih istra ivanja).
The central idea of the theory of multinational enterprises (MNE) is that firms must
Osnovna ideja teorije multinacionalnih poduzeæa jest da poduzeæa moraju imati ne
have certain advantages in order to become multinational companies.
ke prednosti da bi postala multinacionalna.
It is reasonable to expect that firms can do business in foreign countries only at a higher cost than domestic firms.
Razumljiva je pretpostavka da kompanije mogu poslovati u stranim zemljama samo uz troškove proizvodnje koji su viši od troškova domaæih poduzeæa.
Without specific advantages capable of compensating for this inferior position, their foreign operations would not be sustainable.
Bez odreðenih prednosti kojima se kompenzira takav inferioran polo aj njihovo poslovanje u inozemstvu ne bi bilo odr ivo.
In his OLI paradigm Dunning (1993) organized these advantages into three basic groups.
U OLI paradigmi Dunning (1993) sistematizira te prednosti u tri osnovne grupe.
In his opinion the multinational firm must have a product or a production process giving it some monopoly power in the foreign market (ownership advantage - O), and/or a reason to locate production abroad (location advantage - L), and/or an incentive to exploit its ownership advantage internally (internalization advantage - I).
Prema njegovu mišljenju, multinacionalna kompanija posjeduje proizvod ili proces koji joj daje odreðenu moæ monopola na stranom tr ištu (prednost vlasnika: ownership advantage - O), i/ili ima razlog da proizvodi u inozemstvu (prednost lokacije: location advantage - L), i/ili ima poticaj da svoju prednost posjedovanja iskorištava interno (prednost internalizacije: internalization advantage - I).
A direct conclusion is that firms may have different motives for becoming multinational enterprises.
Izravan je zakljuèak da poduzeæa mogu imati razlièite motive da postanu multinacionalna.
These motives may define different types of foreign direct investment, which on the other hand, may have different impact on the home and (more interesting for this research) host country's economy and thus export performance.
Razni motivi definiraju razlièite vrste izravnih stranih ulaganja koja, pak, mogu imati razlièite uèinke za zemlju podrijetla i, što je za ovo istraivanje va nije, na gospodarstvo zemlje primateljice ulaganja i njezin izvoz.
The impact of the various types of FDI on a host country's exports as suggested by
Uèinci raznih vrsta izravnih ulaganja na izvoz zemlje primateljice, kako ih predvi
the OLI paradigm is summarized in Table 1.
ða OLI paradigma, sa eti su u tablici 1.
It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict the macroeconomic effect of FDI on exports, unless one knows that most foreign investment is either market- or resource-seeking.
Teško je, ako ne i nemoguæe, predvidjeti makroekonomski uèinak izravnih stranih ulaganja na izvoz ako se ne zna da je veæina stranih ulaganja tr išno ili resursno orijentirana.
But even if one knew that most of the FDI in some host economy were e.g. market-seeking, there still might be some positive effects of FDI on exports through different channels of indirect influence (which are described in the next section).
Ali èak i kada bi bilo poznato da je veæina inozemnih ulaganja u nekoj zemlji npr. tr išno orijentirana, ipak bi mogli postojati neki pozitivni uèinci tih ulaganja na izvoz putem razlièitih kanala neizravnih utjecaja (koja se opisuju u sljedeæem dijelu).
In these recent models, the results on the relationship between factor i.e. capital movements (FDI) and trade depend on whether the multinational firms are horizontally (the MNE produces the same product in multiple plants located in more than one country) or vertically integrated (separate segments of the production process are carried out in different countries).
U tim novijim modelima priroda odnosa izmeðu kretanja faktora proizvodnje (tj. u ovom sluèaju kapitala) i meðunarodne trgovine ovise o tome jesu li multinacionalna poduzeæa integrirana horizontalno (multinacionalno poduzeæe proizvodi isti proizvod u više proizvodnih postrojenja lociranih u više razlièitih zemalja) ili vertikalno (razlièiti segmenti proizvodnog procesa izvode se u razlièitim zemljama).
The type of integration is determined by factors such as transport costs or firm and plant-level economies of scale.
Vrsta integracije odreðena je faktorima kao što su troškovi transporta ili ekonomija obujma na razini poduzeæa i razini proizvodnog postrojenja.
The results can be summarized as follows (Markusen, 2002): horizontally integrated firms often arise because of trade barriers in the form of tariffs (“tariff-jumping investment”), or high transport costs.
Rezultati se mogu sa eti ovako (Markusen, 2002): horizontalno integrirane kompanije èesto nastaju zbog velikih prepreka meðunarodnoj trgovini u obliku carina (tariff jumping investment) ili visokih troškova transporta.
The firm basically faces the dilemma of either producing abroad or exporting.
Poduzeæe je u osnovi suoèeno s dilemom treba li proizvoditi u inozemstvu ili izvoziti.
Such foreign investments and trade are obviously substitutes.
Takva strana ulaganja i meðunarodna trgovina oèito su supstituti.
FDI is favored relative to exports if the foreign market is large, transport and tariff costs are high, firm-level economies of scale are large compared to plant-level economies of scale, if the countries are similar in size and relative endowments and as the world income grows.
Inozemno se ulaganje pretpostavlja trgovini ako je strano tr ište veliko, troškovi transporta i carine visoki, ekonomija obujma na razini poduzeæa velika u odnosu prema ekonomiji obujma na razini pojedinaènoga proizvodnog postrojenja, ako su zemlje sliène velièine i podjednako bogate resursima te ako svjetski društveni proizvod raste.
Things are different in the analysis of vertically integrated MNEs, which includes trade in intermediary products.
Drugaèije je s vertikalno integriranim multinacionalnim poduzeæima koja se bave i trgovinom meðuproizvodima.
The production process is likely to be geographically fragmented if the countries have factor-price differences and the stages of production have different factor intensities.
Izgledno je da æe proizvodni proces biti geografski fragmentiran ako postoje razlike meðu zemljama u cijenama faktora proizvodnje i ako se razlièite faze proizvodnog procesa razlikuju u intenzitetu korištenja pojedinih faktora.
Since segments of the production process occur in different countries, intermediate products need to be traded, with the consequence that this kind of investment is likely to be encouraged by lower trade costs.
Buduæi da se dijelovi proizvodnog procesa ostvaruju u razlièitim zemljama, postoji trgovina meðuproizvodima, zbog èega je takav tip ulaganja vjerojatniji pri ni im troškovima meðunarodne trgovine.
Markusen (2002) shows that for this kind of FDI, resulting in a vertically integrated firm, the substitutability between FDI and trade is more likely if the host country is small and differences in endowments are relatively large.
Markusen (2002) pokazuje da za tu vrstu izravnog stranog ulaganja, koja rezultira vertikalno integriranim poduzeæem, postoje veæe moguænosti da su strana ulaganja i meðunarodna trgovina supstituti ako je zemlja primateljica malena i ako su razlike u bogatstvu postojeæim resursima relativno velike.
Source: Jensen (2002:208, modified).
Izvor: Jensen (2002:208, prilagoðeno)
There is another specific type of model of multinational enterprise, which incorpo
Postoji još jedna posebna vrsta modela multinacionalnog poduzeæa koja ima neke
The defining assumptions of this “knowledge-capital model” are that there are knowledge-based assets (headquarters), which are skilled
Definirajuæe pretpostavke tog modela znanja i kapitala (knowledge-capital model) jesu da postoji dio poduzeæa u kojemu se intenzivno koristi visokoobrazovana i specijal
In such a model, trade and investment are complements, in the sense that liberalizing capital movements may increase the volume of trade, if the differences in countries' relative endowments and sizes are large.
U takvom modelu izglednije je da su meðunarodna trgovina i kretanje kapitala komplementarni, u smislu da veæa liberalizacija kretanja kapitala mo e poveæati opseg meðunarodne razmjene ako su razlike meðu zemljama u bogatstvu postojeæim resursima i velièini velike.
On the other hand, if the countries are similar and trade costs are not low, FDI and trade are substitutes.
Nasuprot tome, ako su zemlje sliène, a troškovi meðunarodne razmjene nisu niski, strana ulaganja i meðunarodna trgovina su supstituti.
The impact of FDI on host country exports is not only direct, through the exports of
Uèinci stranih ulaganja na izvoz nisu samo izravni - zbog izvoza stranih podru ni
In this section, some commonly mentioned channels will shortly be described without reference to empirical evidence.
U ovom dijelu ukratko se opisuju neki od èesto spominjanih kanala takvih utjecaja, s pozivom na empirijska istra ivanja.
Firstly and naturally, MNEs can help increase exports simply because FDI provide
Kao prvo, multinacionalna poduzeæa mogu poveæati izvoz jednostavno zato što stra
additional capital to the host economy.
na ulaganja donose zemlji primateljici dodatni kapital.
This may lead to changes in factor proportions and may increase labor productivity.
To mo e dovesti do promjene omjera faktora proizvodnje, posljedica èega mo e biti poveæanje produktivnosti rada.
The provision of capital through MNEs can especially be important in countries where domestic investment is limited by financial constraints, for example in improving developing country exports of raw materials and labor-intensive products (UNCTAD, 2002).
Dodatni kapital multinacionalnih kompanija mo e biti osobito va an u zemljama u kojima su domaæe investicije izrazito limitirane financijskim ogranièenjima, npr. za poveæanje izvoza sirovina i radno intenzivnih proizvoda iz zemalja u razvoju (UNCTAD, 2002).
There may also be very important spillover effects from MNE activities.
Takoðer se mogu pojaviti i znatni efekti prelijevanja zbog aktivnosti multinacional
tioned above, companies need to have some competitive assets, which are often firmspecific, in order to become MNEs (ownership advantages).
Kao što je spomenuto, te kompanije moraju imati neke konkurentne prednosti koje su èesto specifiène za poduzeæe da bi postale multinacionalna poduzeæa (prednost vlasnika).
It is especially difficult for local producers in less developed economies to acquire such assets and capabilities by themselves.
Samim lokalnim proizvoðaèima u manje razvijenim zemljama posebno je teško steæi takva znanja.
But a transfer of these assets to foreign affiliates in the host economies by MNEs “through training, skills development and knowledge transfers opens up prospects for further dissemination to other enterprises and the economy at large” (UNCTAD, 2002:152).
Ali transfer takvih znanja i vještina stranim podru nicama multinacionalnih poduzeæa u zemljama primateljicama ulaganja “... putem obuke, razvoja vještina i transfera znanja otvara moguænosti daljnjeg prenošenja drugim poduzeæima i cjelokupnom gospodarstvu” (UNCTAD, 2002:152).
This upgrading of technical and managerial skills provided by the multinationals may spill over to domestic producers (for example, through the mobility of trained human resources), enhancing their productivity and helping them to improve their competitiveness on the export markets.
Takvo unapreðivanje tehnièkih i menad erskih vještina što ga provode multinacionalne kompanije mo e se “preliti” na domaæe proizvoðaèe (npr. zbog mobilnosti educiranih zaposlenika), što poveæava njihovu produktivnost i poma e im da poveæaju svoju konkurentnost na izvoznim tr ištima.
Under the assumption that the foreign affiliates produce more efficiently (which is mostly the case in less developed countries, see UNCTAD, 2002), locally owned firms might increase their efficiency by copying the operations of the foreign producers or may be forced to do so by the foreign competition (Lipsey, 2002).
Uz pretpostavku da strane podru nice proizvode s veæom efikasnošæu (što je uglavnom praksa u manje razvijenim zemljama, vidjeti UNCTAD, 2002), lokalna poduzeæa mogu poveæati vlastitu efikasnost u poslovanju kopirajuæi naèine poslovanja stranih proizvoðaèa ili mogu biti prisiljena poveæati efikasnost zbog prisutnosti stranih konkurenata (Lipsey, 2002).
These are the horizontal linkages inside the MNE's industry, but demonstration effects may arise also in unrelated firms and sectors.
To se naziva horizontalnim vezama unutar industrije multinacionalnog poduzeæa, iako naèine poslovanja stranih kompanija mogu kopirati i druga nepovezana poduzeæa u drugim sektorima.
An especially important channel for productivity spillovers into industries different from the one in which foreign investor operates is constituted by the backward linkages to suppliers.
Posebno va an kanal prelijevanja produktivnosti u druge sektore jest onaj putem veza s dobavljaèima (sektor dobavljaèa).
Such productivity spillovers may occur because of intensified competition among local companies to become MNE suppliers or because of the demand of foreign producers for higher quality of (local) inputs (Lipsey, 2002).
Takvi uèinci prelijevanja mogu se pojaviti zbog jake konkurencije meðu domaæim dobavljaèima koji nastoje postati dobavljaèi multinacionalnog poduzeæa ili zbog potra nje stranog poduzeæa za veæom kvalitetom lokalnih inputa (Lipsey, 2002).
In addition, MNEs may facilitate access to foreign markets for the domestic pro
Nadalje, multinacionalna poduzeæa mogu olakšati ulazak domaæih proizvoðaèa na
ducers, especially by processing information about their home economies.
strana tr išta, osobito tako da im prenose informacije o njihovim matiènim ekonomijama.
The links of foreign affiliates to MNE's intra-firm markets may also spill over to suppliers and other domestic firms, especially to those which succeed in enhancing their efficiency (UNCTAD, 2002).
Kanali stranih podru nica prema internom tr ištu multinacionalne kompanije mogu se proširiti i na dobavljaèe i ostala domaæa poduzeæa, posebno na ona koja uspiju poveæati efikasnost vlastitog poslovanja (UNCTAD, 2002).
Apart from that, MNEs may lobby for favorable treatment of exports from the host economy in their home economies.
Osim toga, multinacionalna poduzeæa mogu lobirati u svojim matiènim zemljama za povlašteni polo aj izvoznika iz zemlje primateljice ulaganja.
All this may reduce the costs of entering foreign markets for domestic producers.
Sve to mo e sniziti troškove domaæih proizvoðaèa pri ulasku na strana tr išta.
Through all of the above channels, FDI affects the factor productivities and thus the
Putem svih navedenih kanala strana ulaganja utjeèu na produktivnost faktora proiz
comparative advantages of host economies.
vodnje i time na komparativne prednosti zemlje primateljice.
Such a change inevitably influences the size, structure and direction of international trade.
Takva promjena neizbjeno utjeèe na opseg, strukturu i pravce meðunarodne trgovine.
Therefore, FDI and trade become inseparable as “two sides of the coin of the process of economic globalization” (Sun, 2001)
Stoga strana ulaganja i meðunarodna trgovina postaju nedjeljivi kao “... dvije strane novèiæa ekonomske globalizacije” (Sun, 2001).
It must however be noted that the extent of the spillovers and indirect effects of FDI
Mora se napomenuti da opseg prelijevanja i neizravnih uèinaka stranih ulaganja na iz
on exports may depend on the initial technological and human capital level of the domestic producers, on the intensity of competition in domestic markets, as well as on the government policies promoting linkages between domestic and foreign firms.
voz mo e ovisiti o poèetnoj razini tehnologije i ljudskog kapitala domaæih proizvoðaèa, o intenzitetu konkurencije na domaæem tr ištu, kao i o mjerama gospodarske politike za promicanje povezivanja domaæih i stranih poduzeæa.
Moreover, there are also potential negative effects of MNEs on domestic producers.
Štoviše, postoje i potencijalni negativni uèinci multinacionalnih kompanija na domaæe proizvoðaèe.
Probably the most obvious example is the hypothetical situation in which MNEs capture domestic firms' market share and reduce the latters' profits or possibly endanger their survival (Barry and Bradley, 1997).
Vjerojatno je najoèitiji primjer hipotetièka situacija u kojoj strano poduzeæe osvoji dio tr išta domaæeg poduzeæa, èime smanjuje njegovu dobit i mo e ugroziti njegov opstanak (Barry i Bradley, 1997).