natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
He calls the entire process the method of elimination and with it he replaces procedure for indicator evaluation.
Cijeli proces naziva metodom eliminacije, a njome zamjenjuje postupak ocjenjivanja pokazatelja.
However, the author uses NBER criteria given in the evaluation procedure, but for the purpose of eliminating inadequate series.
Ipak, autor se koristi NBER kriterijima zadanim u postupku ocjenjivanja, ali zato da bi prema njima uklonio nezadovoljavajuće serije.
Moreover, the author tries to use cross-correlation analysis in order to measure the harmonization of cycles between reference series and the indicator, along with its leading tendencies.
Uz to, autor primjenjuje korelacijsku analizu uz uvođenje vremenskih pomaka kojom nastoji mjeriti usklađenost faza ciklusa referentne serije i pokazatelja, kao i tendencije njihova predvođenja.
The result of elimination method application is an extremely low number of series
Rezultat primjene metode eliminacije izuzetno je nizak broj pokazatelja u samom
in the leading composite indicator.
prethodećem kompozitnom pokazatelju.
Leading composite indicator consists of three components (based, it seems, on five series): retail markup, the ratio of deposits and loans to enterprises and the industrial production to inventories in manufacturing ratio.
Riječ je o ukupno tri komponente (zasnovane na, čini se, pet serija): prodajnoj marži; odnosu depozita i kredita u sektoru poduzeća te odnosu proizvodnje i zaliha u industriji.
Our conclusion is that the elimination approach did not yield in a satisfactory choice of components.
Naš je zaključak da pristup eliminacije serija nije rezultirao zadovoljavajućim izborom komponenti.
The first component, retail markup, was evaluated by the author, which would result in zero point within the NBER scoring criterion for statistical significance.
Prvu je komponentu, prodajnu maržu, autor procijenio, čemu bi u sustavu ocjenjivanja serija prema NBER kriteriju statističke značajnosti bilo dodijeljeno nula bodova.
In turn this would mean that this series could not be included in the index.
To znači da ta serija i prema autorovoj metodi eliminacije ne bi smjela biti uključena u indeks.
Disregarding the choice of method, including reference series in deviated component must be completely avoided since it creates spurious non-random statistical causation between the component of index and reference series.
Bez obzira na odabir metode, uključivanje referentne serije u izvedenu komponentu treba posve izbjeći jer ona stvara lažnu neslučajnu statističku povezanost druge serije u komponenti s referentnom serijom.
What is new when compared to CROLEI, is that the author has constructed a compos
Novost u usporedbi s CROLEI-jem jest to što Cerovac gradi kompozitni indeks zao
All three composite indices are calculated according to TCB algorithm, which does not include averaging by significance weights obtained from scoring procedure.
Sva tri kompozitna indeksa izračunana su na osnovi TCB algoritma, koji ne obuhvaća uprosječivanje uz pomoć pondera značajnosti koji se dobivaju iz postupka ocjenjivanja.
This resulted in greater monthly volatility of the index, recognized by the author (Cerovac, 2005: 23).
Rezultat su veće amplitude indeksa na mjesečnoj frekvenciji, čega je autor svjestan (Cerovac, 2005:23).
This feature makes identification of index turning points harder and most probably creates more noise when forecasting.
Naime, ta poteškoća otežava utvrđivanje zaokreta u indeksu i najvjerojatnije stvara više šumova prilikom davanja prognoza.
When one displays CROLEI and the index proposed by Cerovac on a graph, it becomes clear that their cyclical behavior is very similar, with
Kada se CROLEI i Cerovčev prognostički indeks grafički prikažu, jasno je da se ciklički vrlo slično kreću, s time da je CROLEI znatno glatkija serija.
At first glance, if the main criteria for index construction is level of aggregation of series, then the original CROLEI index stands out.
Ako u prvi mah kao najvažniji kriterij za konstruiranje indeksa uzmemo da su vrednije komponente koje su ekonomski agregati, prednjači izvorni CROLEI.
From the results obtained it was concluded that the matrix is functioning well when applied to our indices and it confirms our expectations.
Iz dobivenih rezultata zaključujemo da matrica dobro funkcionira i za naše indekse i potvrđuje naša očekivanja.
The original CROLEI, according to the most important matrix indicator, noise - to - signal ratio, has the best result.
Izvorni CROLEI, prema najvažnijem pokazatelju iz matrice, a to je omjer točnih i netočnih prognoza, ima najbolji rezultat.
CROLEI in differences achieved the second best result, but its result is unacceptable since 39 percent of its forecasts are not accurate, as against the original CROLEI, where the corresponding percentage is significantly lower - 28.
Drugi najbolji rezultat koji je ostvario CROLEI u diferencijama nije prihvatljiv jer 39% njegovih prognoza nije točno dok je taj udio za izvorni CROLEI indeks znatno niži - 28%.
Since the evaluation of the forecasting indicators matrix is an adjusted method, the
Budući da je matrica za vrednovanje prognostičkih pokazatelja prilagođena metoda,
authors wanted to verify the obtained results by applying other methods, in their original form.
autori su željeli dobivene rezultate potvrditi primjenom druge metode, i to u njezinu izvornom obliku.
For this purpose two regression models were chosen, with the forecasting index as independent variable and industrial production as the dependent variable.
Za tu su svrhu odabrana dva regresijska modela, s industrijom kao zavisnom varijablom i prognostičkim indeksom kao objašnjavajućom varijablom.
Both models yielded stable and even equal results suggesting that models with the CROLEI sys
Oba su modela dala postojane, ujednačene rezultate prema kojima najbolju ocjenu ima model s CROLEI
tem based on logarithm values have the best performance, followed by the original CRO
sustavom na osnovi logaritmiranih vrijednosti, a slijedi ga izvorni CROLEI.
The answer is simple - in the CROLEI system based on logarithm values, all series are smoothed, including referent industrial production.
Odgovor je jednostavan - zato što su u CROLEI sustavu na osnovi logaritmiranih vrijednosti sve serije “izglađene”, uključujući i referentnu industrijsku proizvodnju.
However, the CROLEI system based on logarithm values does not predict seasonally adjusted industrial production that well.
Ipak, CROLEI sustav na osnovi logaritmiranih vrijednosti ne previđa dobro desezoniranu industriju.
The authors concluded that the barometric method, with respect to the potentials of available statistical data and the economic conditions in Croatia, has been applied in an acceptable way.
Zaključak je autora da je barometarska metoda, s obzirom na mogućnosti statističke osnovice i gospodarske uvjete u Hrvatskoj, primijenjena na prihvatljiv način.
As well as some new, interesting series having been included in the research, the author also constructed a composite lagging indicator and a composite coincident indicator.
Osim što su u istraživanju uključene neke nove, zanimljive serije, autor je izgradio kompozitne indekse zaostajućih i pratećih pokazatelja.
The author was the first to apply the Bry-Boschan algorithm as an objective method for identifying turning points.
Prvi je primijenio i Bry-Boschanov algoritam kao objektivnu metodu utvrđivanja zaokreta.
The greatest problem in this research is the choice of problematic components in composite leading indicator.
No najveći je problem u radu odabir problematičnih komponenti u kompozitnom indeksu najvješćujućih pokazatelja.
This research will serve as a starting point for development and application of methods for precise identification of turning points in the economic cycle, as well as for new testing new methods on available time series.
Ovo će istraživanje poslužiti kao osnova za razvoj i primjenu metodološkog aparata za precizno utvrđivanje točaka zaokreta u gospodarskim ciklusima, ali i za dodatna testiranja serija uz pomoć novih metodoloških alata.
With every new monthly observation, we are one step closer to applying newer and more sophisticated forecasting methods.
Sa svakom novom mjesečnom opservacijom potencijalnih pokazatelja korak smo bliže mogućnosti primjene novih, složenijih prognostičkih metoda.
Employment and wages
Zaposlenost i plaće
42 number of persons in paid employment 43 average monthly paid net earnings of persons in paid employment 44 average monthly paid gross earnings of persons in paid employment
42 broj zaposlenih, ukupno 43 nominalna neto plaća po zaposlenome, ukupno 44 prosječna mjesečna bruto plaća po zaposlenome
52 unemployed persons due to cease of work of the enterprise and employer
52 osobe nezaposlene zbog prestanka rada poduzeća i poslodavca
Construction and tourism Tourist industry bed-nights,
Graditeljstvo i turizam Broj noćenja turista
53 construction work net orders 530 total volume index of construction work
53 neto narudžbe građevnih radova 530 indeks fizičkog opsega građevinskih radova
57 retail trade 58 retail trade inventories
57 promet u trgovini na malo 58 zalihe u trgovini na malo
Merchandise trade with other countries Exports
Robna razmjena RH s inozemstvom Izvoz
122 current accounts and deposit accounts, foreign currency savings 123 time deposits and notice deposits 124 Foreign currency foreign liabilities of commercial banks
122 tekući računi i depoziti po deviznoj štednji 123 oročeni depoziti i depoziti s otkaznim rokom 124 devizna inozemna pasiva poslovnih banaka
CNB interest rate
Kamatna stopa HNB-a
125 on funds of the mandatory reserves 127 on voluntarily subscribed treasury bills of the CNB, 35 days 129 on Lombard credits
125 na sredstva izdvojene obvezne rezerve 127 na dragovoljno upisane blagajničke zapise HNB-a, od 35 dana 129 na lombardne kredite
Interest rates on the money market
Kamatna stopa na tržištu novca
136 day market 137 overnight market
136 dnevno tržište 137 prekonoćno tržište
Revenue and expenditure of the central government budget Revenue
Prihodi i rashodi državnog proračuna Prihodi
140 government budget, total 143 tax, total
140 državnog proračuna, ukupno 143 porezni, ukupno
140a capital, total
140a kapitalni, ukupno
Metodološki okvir za izradu sustava prethodećih
Metodološki okvir za izradu sustava prethodećih eko
Ahec-Šonje, A., Babić, A. and Bačić, K., 2003.
Ahec-Šonje, A., Babić, A. i Bačić, K., 2003.
”Determinants of currency distur
“Determinants of currency disturbances
bances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe” in: Z.
in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe” in: Z.
The 5th Inter
The 5th International
national Conference ‘Enterprise in Transition'.
Conference ‘Enterprise in Transition'.
Usavršavanje prognostičkog indeksa hrvatskog gospodarst
Usavršavanje prognostičkog indeksa hrvatskog gospodar
“Constructive data mining: modeling consumers expenditure in Venecuela”.
“Novi kompozitni pokazatelji za hrvatsko gospodarstvo: prilog razvoju domaćeg sustava cikličkih pokazatelja” [online].
“Leading indicators of aggregate activ
“Leading indicators of aggregate acti
ity of Slovenia” [online].
vity of Slovenia” [online].
ment of Commerce : Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
“Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes” in: Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Vizek: CROLEI u novome ruhu: treba li nam novi prognostički indeks?
Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting.
The construction of alternative forecasting indices also employs the barometric method.
TAX EXPENDITURES IN CROATIA
POREZNI IZDACI U HRVATSKOJ
Ivica URBAN, MSc Institute of Public Finance, Zagreb
mr. sc. Ivica URBAN Institut za javne financije, Zagreb
The tax system of the Republic of Croatia contains a large number of very diverse
U poreznom sustavu Republike Hrvatske egzistira velik broj različitih vrsta poreznih
kinds of tax expenditures whose the declared aim is to achieve certain social and economic objectives.
izdataka kojima se nastoji postići određene socio-ekonomske ciljeve.
This paper considers all the items that constitute tax expenditures in Croatia, within the systems of the personal income tax, corporate income tax, and real estate transfer tax and value added tax.
U ovom tekstu razmatraju se sve stavke koje u Hrvatskoj čine porezne izdatke, i to u sklopu poreza na dohodak, dobit, prometa nekretnina i dodane vrijednosti.
The objective of the article is to determine the real level of tax expenditures per form of tax in the 2001-2004 period.
Cilj članka je da se utvrdi stvarna razina poreznih izdataka prema pojedinim poreznim oblicima u razdoblju od 2001. do 2004. godine.
We hypothesised that the tax expenditures in the analysed forms of tax are both high and growing, which was ultimately borne out, for almost all the analysed items in the tax forms considered are growing.
Pretpostavili smo da su porezni izdaci u analiziranim poreznim oblicima visoki i rastući, što je na koncu i dokazano jer gotovo sve stavke u analiziranim poreznim oblicima rastu.
Key words: tax expenditures, personal income tax, corporate income tax, real estate transfer tax and value added tax.
Ključne riječi: porezni izdaci, porez na dohodak, porez na dobit, porez na promet nekretnina i porez na dodanu vrijednost
At the beginning of the 1990s, like many other transition countries, Croatia underwent
Hrvatska je početkom 1990-ih, poput brojnih drugih tranzicijskih zemalja, doživjela
In tax reforms that were taking place in developed countries, the emphasis was placed on increasing the effectiveness and the maximum degree of neutrality of the tax system.
Pri tome se ponajprije mislilo na smanjenje poreznih izuzeća i olakšica odnosno na proširenje porezne osnovice i smanjenje graničnih poreznih stopa.
V. Bratić and I.
V. Bratić i I.
Thus in 2000 in the Croatian income tax system there was only one real relief - the personal allowance.
Tako je 2000. godine u hrvatskom sustavu oporezivanja dohotka praktično postojala samo jedna prava olakšica - osobni dobitak.
Tax reform in Croatia of 1994 was oriented to direct taxes, reform of the Tax Admin
Porezna reforma u Hrvatskoj iz 1994. godine orijentirala se na izravne poreze, re
istration, and the introduction of value added tax (VAT) was completed in early 1998.
formu Porezne uprave, te je završena uvođenjem poreza na dodanu vrijednost početkom 1998. godine.
In so doing, the country largely followed the trends of contemporary tax reforms in other countries.
Pri tome je uvelike slijedila trendove suvremenih poreznih reformi u drugim zemljama.
The reform was based on its own concept, i.e., a consumption-oriented taxation that was supported by many celebrated economists in the last two centuries (Mill, Schumpeter, Kaldor, Shoup and others).
“Temeljila se na vlastitom konceptu tzv. potrošno orijentiranog oporezivanja koje su podržavali mnogi glasoviti ekonomisti u posljednja dva stoljeća (Mill, Schumpeter, Klador, Shoup i dr.).
Unfortunately, the most recent interventions in the tax system carried out at the end of 2000 cast certain doubt on the basic conception and consistency of the tax system to that date, which, we venture to say, was in some elements among the best in the world.
Nažalost, najnovijim intervencijama u porezni sustav što su izvršene krajem 2000. godine, u stanovitoj mjeri dovedena je u pitanje i temeljna koncepcija i konzistentnost dotadašnjeg poreznog sustava, koji je, usuđujemo se reći, po nekim elementima bio među boljima u svijetu.
S. Mill that “an old tax is the best tax” (Jurković, 2002:304-305).
S. Milla ‘da je stari porez - najbolji porez' ” (Jurković, 2002:304-305).
The basic principles of the tax reform started ten years ago are on the whole still re
“Osnovna načela na kojima je poreznom reformom započetom prije desetak godina
spected notwithstanding certain deviations brought about by current economic and political changes.
utemeljen hrvatski porezni sustav uglavnom se i dalje poštuju unatoč pojavi određenih odstupanja uzrokovanih trenutačnim gospodarskim ili političkim promjenama.
Certain changes mark a positive move forwards (for example reduction of the tax burden, emphasis on taxation of consumption and not of income and savings, reduction of tax evasion, improvement of the efficacy of the tax administration), while some changes already in place or just announced should be carefully re-examined and the fiscal consequences that stem (or would stem) from their application should be realistically evaluated.
Određene promjene označavaju pozitivan pomak (primjerice smanjenje poreznog opterećenja, naglasak na oporezivanju potrošnje, a ne dohotka i štednje, smanjenje porezne evazije, poboljšanje učinkovitosti porezne uprave), dok bi neke već provedene ili tek najavljene promjene trebalo pomno preispitati te realno izračunati fiskalne posljedice koje proizlaze ili bi proizašle njihovom primjenom.
At issue here is the introduction of new allowances, exemptions and privileges, the introduction of new tax rates, for instance that of income tax or VAT, the reduction of the VAT rate, and the introduction of new taxes.
Riječ je o uvođenju novih olakšica, oslobođenja i povlastica, o uvođenju novih poreznih stopa, npr. dohotka ili PDV-a, o sniženju stope PDV-a, uvođenju novih poreza.
The introduction of new allowances, reliefs and privileges distorts the consistency
Uvođenjem novih poreznih olakšica i povlastica narušava se konzistentnost i transpa
and transparency of the tax system, as well as its stability.
rentnost poreznog sustava te njegova stabilnost.
It also makes the procedure of collecting and controlling taxes additionally complex, which leads to further expenses and poorer efficiency of the system.
Dodatno se usložnjava postupak naplate i kontrole poreza, što vodi poskupljenju i slabijoj učinkovitosti sustava.
Frequent changes, often in form of ad hoc measures, have a negative effect on the way in which taxpayers make decisions.
Učestale promjene, često ad hoc mjere, negativno utječu na donošenje ekonomskih odluka poreznih obveznika.
Measures of social, economic and developmental policy should not be implemented by the tax policy; rather, its basic objective and purpose is to gather the tax revenue necessary to cover existing public expenditures as simply, efficiently and equitably as possible.
Poreznom politikom ne smiju se provoditi mjere socijalne, ekonomske ili razvojne politike nego je njezin osnovni cilj i svrha što jednostavnije, učinkovitije i pravednije prikupljanje poreznih prihoda kojima se trebaju pokrivati postojeći izdaci za javne potrebe.
County Municipality or city
Država Županija Općina ili grad
a Accrues to municipality or city that finances its decentralised functions, otherwise accrues to the county.
b Porezi općina ili gradova kojim financiraju redoviti rad javnih vatrogasnih službi.
b Accrues to municipality or city that has founded and finances the regular work of public fire services.
c Državni fond iz kojega se dodjeljuju sredstva onim lokalnim jedinicama koje ne mogu financirati svoje javne funkcije.
The four tax forms analysed in this investigation can be classified as follows:
Četiri u ovom istraživanju analizirana porezna oblika možemo podijeliti ovako:
• corporate income tax - a shared, direct tax
• porez na dobit - zajednički, izravni porez
• personal income tax - a shared, direct tax
• porez na dohodak - zajednički, izravni porez
• real estate transfer tax - a shared, indirect tax
• porez na promet nekretnina - zajednički, neizravni porez
The table shows that, in terms of percentages of GDP VAT is the major element in the central government budget.
Iz tablice je vidljivo kako najveći udio u BDP-u i u državnom proračunu ima porez na dodanu vrijednost (PDV).
The importance of personal income tax as revenue of the central government budget declined over the period under analysis.
Važnost poreza na dohodak kao prihoda državnog proračuna u analiziranom se razdoblju smanjuje.
Although corporate income tax revenue increased in terms of percentages of GDP, this tax is still equivalent to a very small proportion of GDP.
Iako se udio poreza na dobit u BDP-u povećava, taj porez i dalje ima relativno mali udio u BDP-u.
Tax on real estate transfers is also equivalent to a practically negligible percentage of GDP.
Gotovo zanemariv udio u BDP-u ima porez na promet nekretnina.
In other words, indirect taxes dominate in the structure of central government budget tax revenue, above all VAT.
Drugim riječima, u strukturi poreznih prihoda dominiraju neizravni porezi, prije svega PDV.
This would be still more pronounced if we were to analyse individual taxes as proportions of the total revenue of the central government budget.
To bi bilo još naglašenije kada bismo analizirali udjele pojedinih poreza u ukupnim prihodima državnog proračuna, što ovdje nećemo činiti.
sales tax international trade and transactions tax other taxes
porez na prodaju porez na međunarodnu trgovinu i transakcije ostali porezi
The second most important form of taxes is excises, and only after that come personal and corporate income tax.
Porezni prihodi porez na dohodak porez na dobit porez na imovinu (na promet nekretnina) porez na dobra i usluge
Definition of and methodololy for assessing tax expenditures in the Croatian tax system
Definicija i metodologija procjene poreznih izdataka u hrvatskom poreznom sustavu
These norms include accounting conventions, the structure of tax rates, the deductibility of compulsory payments, provisions to facilitate tax administration, and norms related to international fiscal obligations.
Porezna pravila uključuju strukturu poreznih stopa, odbitke prisilne naplate, stavke za olakšavanje porezne administracije, te međunarodne fiskalne (financijske) obveze.
We used the method of lost revenue in which the tax expenditure is quantified as the magnitude by which the central government budget revenues are reduced because of the existence of certain exemptions in the tax structure.
Koristili smo se metodom izgubljenih prihoda u kojoj se porezni izdatak mjeri kao veličina za koju su smanjeni državni porezni prihodi s obzirom na postojanje određenih iznimaka u poreznoj strukturi.
The basic approach in this investigation was similar to Canadian experience in the analysis of tax expenditures.
Osnovni pristup u ovom istraživanju bio je sličan kanadskim iskustvima u analizi
At the same time, the investigation is supposed to serve as a source of information about tax expenditures necessary for an analysis of the Croatian taxation system and an evaluation of its efficacy.
Ujedno, ovo istraživanje treba poslužiti i kao izvor informacija o poreznim izdacima nužnim za analizu hrvatskoga poreznog sustava i procjenu njegove učinkovitosti.
Types of tax expenditures.
Vrste poreznih izdataka.
Real estate transfer tax (3 tax expenditures analysed)
Porez na promet nekretnina (ukupno 3 analizirana porezna izdatka)
Value added tax (3 forms of tax expenditure, but only one is analysed)
Porez na dodanu vrijednost (3 porezna izdatka, ali samo jedan analiziran u istraživanju)
Reductions of the tax base deliveries not subject to taxation (shown, but not considered tax expenditures in this investigation) deliveries exempted from taxation - in the territory of the country, without the right to repayment of input taxes (shown, but not considered tax expenditures in this investigation) zero rated deliveries
Umanjenja porezne osnovice isporuke koje ne podliježu oporezivanju (prikazani, ali se ne smatraju poreznim izdacima u ovom istraživanju) isporuke oslobođene poreza - tuzemne, bez prava na odbitak pretporeza i izvozne, s pravom na odbitak pretporeza (prikazani, ali se ne smatraju poreznim izdacima u ovom istraživanju) isporuke po nultoj stopi
Since this is the first investigation of tax expenditures in the Croatian taxation system, we have allowed ourselves the maximum amount of latitude in the choice of items.
Budući je ovo prvo istraživanje poreznih izdataka u hrvatskom poreznom sustavu, dopustili smo si maksimalnu slobodu u odabiru stavki.
But this division is extremely broad, because it is sometimes very difficult to distinguish to which category an individual tax expenditure belongs.
No ovo je općenita podjela, jer je katkad vrlo teško razlikovati kojoj kategoriji pripada određeni porezni izdatak.