natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
But by comparison with the primary budget balance,
kao standardnu normalnu slučajnu varijablu.
adjustment of flow debt
primarni proračunski saldo
primary budget balance
Izvor: autorov izračun
In years in which a primary deficit is realized, the stock-flow adjustment is mainly positive, but also the reverse.
U godinama u kojima je ostvaren primarni deficit prilagodba toka duga uglavnom je pozitivna, ali i obratno.
This makes sense since the stock-flow adjustment depends on many external variables, and is mainly linked with market trends.
To ima smisla jer prilagodba toka duga ovisi o mnogim eksternim varijablama, uglavnom povezanima s tržišnim kretanjima.
Therefore, we can assume that in difficult years, apart from realization of a negative budget balance, a large number of debts are also activated (e.g. guarantees), the domestic currency is liable to depreciate in relation to foreign currency, the state is forced by injections of capital to help some businesses important for economic development, which have found themselves in difficulties etc. This all leads to a growth in stock-flow adjustment and therefore the public debt.
Stoga možemo pretpostaviti da se u teškim godinama, osim što se ostvaruje negativan proračunski saldo, aktivira i veći broj obveza (npr. jamstava), domaća je valuta sklona depreciranju u odnosu prema stranoj, država je prisiljena kapitalnim injekcijama pomoći nekim poduzećima koja su se našla u teškoćama, a važna su za razvoj gospodarstva itd. To sve dovodi do porasta prilagodbe toka duga, a time i javnog duga.
We also notice a similar connection between those two variables in EU-27 member countries, so for example in 2008 in comparison to the previous year the budget deficit rose by 1.5 percentage points, and the stock-flow adjustment by as much as 2.9 percentage points (Eurostat, 2009c).
Sličnu povezanost tih dviju varijabli možemo primijetiti i u zemljama članicama EU-27, pa je, primjerice, u 2008. u odnosu na prethodnu godinu proračunski deficit porastao za 1,5 postotnih bodova, a prilagodba toka duga za čak 2,9 postotnih bodova (Eurostat, 2009c).
Therefore we assume that the ratio of the stock-flow adjustment can be estimated from the ratio of the primary budget balance in the GDP.
Stoga pretpostavljamo da se udio prilagodbe toka duga može procijeniti iz udjela primarnoga proračunskog salda u BDP-u.
The indicators of representativeness of this model are shown in Table 6.
Pokazatelji reprezentativnosti tog modela predočeni su u tablici 6.
Source: author's calculation
Izvor: autorov izračun
The coefficient of determination and the p-value of F-statistics show the satisfactory representativeness of the model described by formula (14).
Koeficijent determinacije te p-vrijednost F-statistike pokazuju zadovoljavajuću reprezentativnost modela opisanoga formulom (14).
So, we will calculate the ratio of the public debt in the GDP recursively, with the estimated value of the other parameters.
Dakle, udio javnog duga u BDP-u računat ćemo rekurzivno, uz procijenjene vrijednosti ostalih parametara.
and st are, according to the assumption, the realization of two dependent random variables (Xt and Wt), we can form a random variable that connects them as follows:
i st prema pretpostavci ostvarenja dvije zavisne slučajne varijable (Xt i Wt), slučajnu varijablu koja ih povezuje možemo formirati na sljedeći način:
Since the mathematical expectation of the random variable is a linear functional, the following applies10:
Budući da je matematičko očekivanje slučajne varijable linearan funkcional, vrijedi10:
(17) Which means that we can express the expected value of change in year t + k, with combination with equations (10) and (14), as:
(17) što znači da očekivanu vrijednost promjene u godini t + k, uz kombiniranje s jednadžbama (10) i (14), možemo izraziti kao:
Which finally leads to: VarZ
što na kraju daje jednadžbu: VarZ
The variances of the random variables Zt + k grow with all further projections, which leads to increasing uncertainty in the estimate.
Varijanca slučajne varijable Zt + k sa svim sljedećim projekcijama raste, što vodi sve većoj nesigurnosti procjene.
This is logical in view of the fact that they are variables which have a tendency towards major deviations from the expected values.
To je logično jer je riječ o varijablama koje su sklone većim odstupanjima od očekivane vrijednosti.
Also, every projection further into the future carries more uncertainty so there the expected deviation is greater.
Također, svaka projekcija u dalju budućnost nosi više neizvjesnosti pa je stoga i očekivano odstupanje veće.
On the other hand, in the projections of the growth rate of the real GDP and real interest rates we assume that it is sufficient to follow the framework of the expected values for several reasons.
S druge strane, u projekcijama stope rasta realnog BDP-a i realne kamatne stope pretpostavljamo da je zbog više razloga dovoljno pratiti okvir očekivane vrijednosti.
In this mid-term projection, 2009 is assessed on the basis of the available information given above, whilst for the future projections a simple function will be used, defined by the following expression:
U ovoj srednjoročnoj projekciji 2009. godina procijenjena je na temelju navedenih dostupnih informacija, dok će za buduće projekcije biti upotrijebljena jednostavna funkcija definirana izrazom:
, % this projection is more based on a simply mathematical model, instead of on assumptions about real changes to key variables included in the calculation of the GDP, there are several good reasons for choosing precisely this form of function.
Iako je takva projekcija više utemeljena na jednostavnomu matematičkomu modelu nego na pretpostavkama o stvarnim promjenama ključnih varijabli koje ulaze u izračun BDP-a, nekoliko je dobrih razloga za odabir baš takvog oblika funkcije.
Moreover, a projection created in this way shows some optimal development and gradual improvement of the situation in the economy, which is why we have reasons to believe that the chosen function is good enough for this model.
Također, tako konstruirana projekcija pokazuje neki optimalan razvoj i postupno poboljšavanje stanja u gospodarstvu, zbog čega imamo razloga vjerovati da je odabrana funkcija dovoljno dobra za taj model.
But as we have already mentioned this does not have a major influence in formula (15) on the movements of the public debt.
No, kao što je već navedeno, to u formuli (15) nema velik utjecaj na kretanje javnog duga.
Since recursive projections into the increasingly distant future are subject to increasing deviation, apart from the expected projections, standard deviations will also be expressed.
Budući da je rekurzivno projiciranje u sve daljoj budućnosti podložno sve većoj devijantnosti, osim očekivanih projekcija bit će izražene i standardne devijacije.
This is extremely important since the projections are based on a stochastically modelled approach, in which the effect of fiscal policies in the future period is not included explicitly but is formed as a normal deviation.
To je iznimno važno jer se projekcije temelje na stohastičkome modelskom pristupu u kojemu utjecaj fiskalne politike u budućim razdobljima nije eksplicitno uključen, već je formiran kao normalno odstupanje.
The basic problem of this analysis is the insufficient quantity of data included in the
Osnovni problem ove analize jest premalen broj podataka koji ulaze u analizu, što
This occurs because all the data in the analysis are given on an annual basis.
To se događa zato što se svi podaci u analizi promatraju na godišnjoj razini.
However it is not possible to take data on a quarterly basis, since some data, such as for example the nominal level of the public debt, which exists on a quarterly or even a monthly level shows different values in different years in the same sources, which results in an incomparable time series of figures.
No uzimanje podataka na kvartalnoj razini nije ni moguće jer neki podaci, primjerice nominalni iznos javnog duga, koji postoje na kvartalnoj, pa čak i na mjesečnoj razini, u različitim godinama u istim izvorima navode različite vrijednosti, što dovodi do neusporedivoga vremenskog niza podataka.
For this reason in this article we rely on smaller, but still comparable series of figures.
Zato se u ovom radu oslanjamo na manji, no ipak usporediv niz podataka.
Table 8 shows the realized and expected values of all key variables and projections of the public debt.
U tablici 8. navedene su ostvarene i očekivane vrijednosti svih ključnih varijabli te projekcija javnog duga.
Real interest rate (%)
Javni dug (post.
Public debt + std.dev (% GDP)
BDP-a) Javni dug - stddev (post.
public debt projection
(postotak BDP-a)
After this the situation gradually improves, but even after five years the primary deficit does not reach the level of the pre-crisis years.
Nakon toga situacija se postupno popravlja, no čak ni nakon pet godina primarni deficit ne doseže razinu pretkriznih godina.
The cause of this unfavourable trend is to be found in the stagnation of growth or even the fall in budget revenues on the one hand, and the strong growth of expenditure on the other.
Uzrok takvog nepovoljnog trenda nalazimo u stagnaciji rasta ili čak padu proračunskih prihoda te u pojačanom rastu rashoda.
Since all the variables are seen as ratios of the GDP, it is important to note that in the first and sometimes in the second crisis year the GDP achieves a negative growth rate, and even after the beginning of the recovery of economic growth, although positive, it is much lower than the average of the pre-crisis period.
Budući da sve varijable promatramo kao udjele u BDP-u, važno je zamijetiti da u prvoj, a katkad i drugoj kriznoj godini BDP ostvaruje negativnu stopu rasta, a čak je i nakon početka oporavka gospodarstva stopa rasta, iako pozitivna, znatno niža od prosjeka pretkriznih vremena.
This results in an unfavourable trend of movements of the primary deficit.
To sve utječe na nepovoljan trend kretanja primarnog deficita.
On analysis the stock-flow adjustment, a negative correlation was found with the primary deficit, which means that those variables can be linked in the model.
Analiziranjem prilagodbe toka duga ustanovljena je negativna korelacija s primarnim deficitom, što znači da se te varijable u modelu mogu povezati.
Basic macroeconomic variables are considered as exogenous variables, without consideration of the interaction of macroeconomic variables in Croatia and between other countries and Croatia.
Osnovne se makroekonomske varijable promatraju kao egzogene, bez razmatranja interakcija makroekonomskih varijabli u Hrvatskoj te između inozemstva i Hrvatske.
Moreover, all possible reactions of economic policies were also excluded.
Također su isključene i sve moguće reakcije ekonomske politike.
Instead, by formation of confidence intervals of the estimate, all potential sources of uncertainty were included, regardless of their origin.
Umjesto toga, formiranjem intervala pouzdanosti procjene uključeni su svi potencijalni izvori nesigurnosti, bez obzira na podrijetlo njihova nastanka.
The problem is
Problem se ponajviše
mainly found precisely in the negative correlation between the stock-flow adjustment and the primary budget balance, and in difficult years, in which the primary deficit grows, the stock-flow adjustment also grows, which directly implies the growth of the public debt.
krije upravo u negativnoj koreliranosti prilagodbe toka duga i primarnoga proračunskog salda, pa u teškim godinama, u kojima raste primarni deficit, raste i prilagodba toka duga, što izravno implicira porast javnog duga.
However, in this mid-term projection up to 2013, the public debt meets the condition of sustainability and even at the upper limit of the 99 percent confidence interval it does not exceed the limit of 60% of the GDP, whereby we can confirm the main hypothesis of the sustainability of the public debt up to 2013.
Ipak, u srednjoročnoj projekciji do 2013. javni dug zadovoljava uvjet održivosti te čak ni na gornjoj granici 99-postotnog intervala pouzdanosti ne prelazi granicu od 60% BDP-a, čime možemo potvrditi glavnu hipotezu o održivosti javnog duga do 2013. godine.
However, at all costs it is necessary to take into account the need to stop the growth
Ipak, po svaku cijenu treba nastojati zaustaviti rast javnog duga.
This research may serve as a small warning sign about the possible negative implications of poorly managed fiscal policies.
Ovo istraživanje može poslužiti kao mali znak upozorenja o mogućim negativnim implikacijama nekvalitetnog provođenja fiskalne politike.
Comparison of data on a quarterly or even a monthly level would give a longer time series which would certainly give better quality results.
poredbom podataka na kvartalnoj ili čak mjesečnoj razini dobio bi se dulji vremenski niz koji bi zasigurno dao i kvalitetnije rezultate.
But since data on a quarterly level do not exist for all the variables used in this analysis, or even if they do exist they are not comparable, it was not possible to conduct that kind of analysis.
No kako za sve varijable upotrijebljene u ovoj analizi ne postoje podaci na kvartalnoj razini, a čak i ako postoje, nisu usporedivi, takvu analizu nije bilo moguće provesti.
Moreover, in this study the movements of the primary deficit and stock-flow adjustment are modelled mainly statistically, and the potential shocks from macroeconomic variables are not included.
Osim toga, kretanje primarnog deficita i prilagodbe toka duga u ovom je radu modelirano uglavnom statistički, a potencijalni šokovi makroekonomskih varijabli nisu uključeni.
Properties of mathematical expectation
Svojstva matematičkog očekivanja
Let Xi, i = 1,..., n be the random variables, and αi ∈ .
Neka su Xi, i = 1,..., n slučajne varijable, a αi ∈ .
In other words, the mathematical expectation is a linear functional.
Drugim riječima, matematičko je očekivanje linearan funkcional.
Under the condition that all Xi, i = 1,..., n are independent, the following is true:
Uz uvjet da su sve Xi, i = 1,..., n nezavisne, vrijedi:
(d3) where VarXi signifies the variance of the random variable Xi, i = 1,..., n, Cov(Xi, Xj) and the covariance of the random variables and Xi i Xj. Under the condition that all Xi, i = 1,..., n are independent, the following is specially true: Var
(d3) pri čemu VarXi označava varijancu slučajne varijable Xi, i = 1,..., n, a Cov(Xi, Xj) kovarijancu slučajnih varijabli Xi i Xj. Uz uvjet da su sve Xi, i = 1,..., n nezavisne, specijalno vrijedi: Var
In general the covariance may be expressed as: Cov X X X X X X X X X
Općenito, kovarijanca se može izraziti kao: Cov X X X X X X X X X
Applications in the study We recall the formulas (8) and (14):
Primjena u radu Prisjetimo se formula (8) i (14):
From (8) it is easy to see (10): X f t k + ( )
Iz (8) jednostavno proizlazi (10): X f t k + ( )
On the other hand, (14) may be written as:
Istodobno (14) možemo zapisati kao:
For this we will use formula (d5):
Za to će nam poslužiti formula (d5):
t k t k
X W X
Since the following is true: VarX X
Budući da vrijedi: VarX X
By including in the upper expressions for expectation Xt + k Xt + k we obtain: X W
uvrštenjem u gornji izraz za očekivanje Xt + k Xt + k dobivamo: XW
The last two expressions obtained give: Cov X W
Posljednja dva dobivena izraza daju: Cov X W
(d5'') Finally by combining expressions (19), (d7), (d9) and (d5'') we obtain the expression for variance from Zt+k:
(d5'') Konačno, kombiniranjem izraza (19), (d7), (d9) i (d5'') dobivamo izraz za varijancu od Zt+k:
Available from: [http://www.bankamagazine.hr/Naslovnica/Vijesti/Hrvatska/tabid/102/View/Details/ItemID/47321/Default.aspx].
Dostupno na: [http://www.bankamagazine.hr/Naslovnica/Vijesti/Hrvatska/tabid/102/View/Details/ItemID/47321/Default.aspx].
Available from: [http://www.bankamagazine.hr/Naslovnica/Vijesti/Hrvatska/tabid/102/View/Details/ItemID/53045/ttl/Vodeci-ekonomisti-ocekuju-pad-BDP-a-od-5-posto/Default.aspx].
Dostupno na: [http:// www.bankamagazine.hr/Naslovnica/Vijesti/Hrvatska/tabid/102/View/Details/ItemID/53045/ ttl/Vodeci-ekonomisti-ocekuju-pad-BDP-a-od-5-posto/Default.aspx].
97. Available from: [http://www. eizg.hr/AdminLite/FCKeditor/UserFiles/File/pkiep97-babi-krznar-nesti-valjek.pdf].
97. Dostupno na: [http://www. eizg.hr/AdminLite/FCKeditor/UserFiles/File/pkiep97-babi-krznar-nesti-valjek.pdf].
Available from: [http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv/publication/2009/13-1-1_7h2009.htm].
Dostupno na: [http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv/publication/2009/13-1-1_7h2009.htm].
Mjesečno statističko izvješće [online].
Mjesečno statističko izvješće [online], razni brojevi.
Available from: [http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv/ publication/msi.htm].
Dostupno na: [http://www. dzs.hr/Hrv/publication/msi.htm].
Statistički ljetopis [online].
Statistički ljetopis [online], razni brojevi.
Available from: [http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv/publication/ stat_year.htm].
Dostupno na: [http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv/ publication/stat_year.htm].
Ministarstvo financija, 2009a.
Ministarstvo financija, 2009b.
Konsolidirana opća država [online].
Mjesečni statistički prikaz Ministarstva financija, br.
Ministarstvo financija, 2009b.
Ministarstvo financija, 2009c.
M. and Rogoff, K.
“Javni dug” u: K.
EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTIONS
INSTITUCIJE EUROPSKE UNIJE
The European Union is an organisa
Europska unija udruženje je država čla
tion of member states that have transferred part of their sovereignty to European institutions so that decisions can be made in the common, European, interest.
nica koje su dio svojeg suvereniteta prenijele na europske institucije kako bi se mogle donositi odluke u zajedničkom, europskom interesu.
The process by which joint decisions are made involves three fundamental institutions: the Council of the European Union, the European Commission and the European Parliament.
Proces donošenja zajedničkih odluka obuhvaća tri temeljne institucije: Vijeće europske unije, Europsku komisiju i Europski parlament.
Although many other bodies, agencies and committees work within the European Union, those that are particularly important for the working of the Union are the European Council and the European Court of Justice.
Iako u Europskoj uniji djeluju još mnoga tijela, agencije ili odbori osobito važni za funkcioniranje Unije jesu i Europsko vijeće i Europski sud pravde.
These five constitute the fundamental institutions of the EU.
Pet navedenih institucija čine temeljne institucije EU.
The Council of the European Union,
Vijeće Europske unije (Council of the
also known as the Council of Ministers or shortened simply to the Council represents the individual member states.
European Union), poznato također kao Vijeće ministara ili, skraćeno, kao Vijeće, a predstavlja pojedinačne države članice.
It is the main decision-making body of the EU, and practically every piece of legislation has to be adopted by the Council of the EU.
Ono je glavna zakonodavna institucija EU, pa gotovo svaki zakonodavni dokument mora biti usvojen na Vijeću EU.
coordinating economic policy of the member states in the context of the EMU, the Economic and Monetary Union.
Vijeće EU također je nadležno za koordinaciju ekonomske politike država članica u kontekstu Ekonomske i monetarne unije (EMU).
This is the result of the democratisation process of European integration, in which the role of the European Parliament, the only democratically elected body at the European level, has constantly gained in strength.
To je rezultat procesa demokratizacije europske integracije, u kojemu je uloga Europskoga parlamenta, jedinoga demokratski izabranog tijela na europskoj razini, stalno jačala.
But in many areas without the involvement of the Council of the EU, no single decision of a lawmaking nature can be taken in the Union.
Iako u brojnim područjima više ne odlučuje samostalno, u Uniji se bez Vijeća EU ne može donijeti nijedna odluka zakonodavne prirode.
The Council of the EU consists of one representative of each state, usually a minister.
Članove Vijeća EU čine po jedan predstavnik svake države članice, uglavnom ministar.
Since it is composed of ministers of the national governments of the member states, in this institution, the national interests are represented at a European level.
Budući da je sastavljeno od ministara iz nacionalnih vlada država članica, u toj su instituciji na europskoj razini zastupljeni nacionalni interesi.
The composition of the Council depends depending on the area in which the decisions are being made.
Sastav Vijeća EU mijenja se ovisno o području o kojemu se odlučuje.
On the most important issues - changes of the founding treaties, the acceptance of new members or the adoption of a budget lasting several years (in the EU jargon known as the Financial Perspective), the Council must decide unanimously.
O najvažnijim pitanjima - promjenama osnivačkih ugovora, primanju novih članica ili usvajanju višegodišnjeg proračuna (u žargonu “Financijska perspektiva” EU ) - Vijeće EU odlučuje jednoglasno.
In other areas, accounting for about 80% of all decisions of the Council of the EU, it decides by a qualified majority voting.
O ostalim predmetima (oko 80% svih odluka Vijeća EU) odlučuje se metodom kvalificirane većine.
The European Commission is a politi
Europska komisija (European Commis
cal body that represents the interests of the EU as a whole, and it is at the centre of the institutional structure.
sion) političko je tijelo koje predstavlja interese cijelog EU, te čini središte institucijske strukture Unije.
This body, the headquarters of which lies in Brussels, has three main tasks: to propose legislation to the Parliament and the Council; to implement EU policy; and to collaborate with the European Court of Justice in the enforcement of European laws.
To tijelo, čije je sjedište u Bruxellesu, ima tri glavne zadaće: predlaže zakone i propise Parlamentu i Vijeću EU, provodi politike EU te, u suradnji s Europskim sudom, osigurava provođenje europskih zakona.
Until the accession of the new members it was composed of 20 Commissioners (two each from France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, and one each from the other member states).
Do pristupanja novih članica bila je sastavljena od 20 članova (po dva iz Francuske, Njemačke, Italije, Španjolske i Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva, te po jedan član iz ostalih zemalja).
After the accession of the new members, in its new composition (for 2004 to 2009) the Commission has 25 Commissioners.
Nakon pristupanja novih članica Komisija u novom mandatu (2004-2009. godine) ima 25 članova.
The Commissioners are chosen by their national governments, and they must be confirmed by the European Parliament, to which the Commission is accountable.
Članove Komisije sporazumno dogovaraju države članice, a potvrđuje ih Europski parlament, kojemu je Komisija odgovorna.
Commissioners have a five-year period of office.
Mandat članova Komisije traje pet godina.
They are not representatives of the member states and must not seek their opinions or represent their interests.
Članovi Komisije nisu predstavnici država članica i ne smiju tražiti njihovo mišljenje ili zastupati njihove interese.
Each Commissioner is charged with a special area, and each of them is at the head of a body that is similar to a ministry in terms of national states.
Svaki član Komisije zadužen je za jedno posebno područje, pa je svaki od njih na čelu tijela koje je slično ministarstvu u nacionalnim državama.
These ministries are called Directorates General or in European jargon shortened to DG.
Ta “ministarstva” nazivaju se Općim upravama (Directorate General ili u europskom žargonu skraćeno DG).
The DGs, as expert bodies of the Commission, prepare, conduct and analyse the complex network of EU policies, and provide a body of expertise for the making of decisions.
Opće uprave kao stručna tijela Komisije pripremaju, provode i analiziraju kompleksnu mrežu politika EU te osiguravaju stručnu osnovu za donošenje odluka.
Commission's decisions are adopted by a simple majority.
Odluke se u Komisiji donose jednostavnom većinom.
The European Parliament is the rep
Europski parlament (European Parlia