natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
The coefficient on the construction and real estate dummy is negative and significant
Koeficijent indikatorske varijable sektora građevine i nekretnina negativan je i zna
ly different from zero.
čajno različit od nule.
This implies that if a company is in the construction and real estate sector rather than in agriculture and manufacturing or non-financial services, it's probability of default is 0.9 percentage points lower, ceteris paribus.
To implicira da je vjerojatnost neurednog podmirivanja obveza poduzeća, ako ono posluje u sektoru građevine i nekretnina, a ne bavi se poljoprivredom i proizvodnjom ili nefinancijskim uslugama, manja za 0,9 postotnih bodova, ceteris paribus.
This is a plausible result given the intensive growth of the construction and real estate sector in 2006 and 2007.
To je uvjerljiv rezultat ako uzmemo u obzir intenzivni rast u sektoru građevine i nekretnina u 2006. i 2007. godini.
Estimated distributions of predicted probabilities of default for non-defaulted and de
Procijenjene distribucije prognozirane vjerojatnosti neurednog podmirivanja obveza
We used kolmogorov-Smirnov test (k-S test)19 to test the null hypothesis that two samples are drawn from the same distribution.
Koristili smo se Kolmogorov-Smirnovim testom (K-S testom)19 kako bismo testirali nultu hipotezu da su dva uzorka uzeta iz iste distribucije.
As expected, the null hypothesis was rejected at 1 per cent level.
Kako je i očekivano, nulta je hipoteza bila odbačena na razini od 1%.
The k-S test statistic measures a distance between the empirical distribution function of two samples.
Pogreška vrste I pogrešna je klasifikacija poduzećā koja neuredno podmiruju obve
L. Ivičić and S.
L. Ivičić i S.
A decision on which specific value of probability of default to set as a benchmark was made by solving a simple optimization problem where we searched for the threshold value of a default rate that maximizes the sum of percentages of correctly classified defaulted and non-defaulted companies.
Odluka koju specifičnu vrijednost vjerojatnosti neurednog podmirivanja obveza treba odrediti kao mjeru vrijednosti donesena je rješavanjem jednostavnog problema optimizacije, pri čemu smo tražili i prag stope neurednog podmirivanja obveza koja maksimizira zbroj postotaka ispravno klasificiranih poduzeća koja neuredno podmiruju obveze i onih koja ih uredno podmiruju.
This threshold is very close to the observed frequency of default in our sample (0.15 in 2007, 0.13 in 2008 and 0.14 in two-years time).
Taj je prag vrlo blizu promatranoj učestalosti neurednog podmirivanja obveza u odabranom uzorku (0,15 u 2007; 0,13 u 2008. i 0,14 u razdoblju od dvije godine).
Using this threshold we determine the number of eligible (estimated probability of default lower than the threshold) and non-eligible (estimated probability of default higher than the threshold) companies and the number of classification errors.
Primjenom praga određujemo broj prihvatljivih poduzeća (procijenjena vjerojatnost neurednog podmirivanja obveza manja je od praga) i neprihvatljivih poduzeća (procijenjena vjerojatnost neurednog podmirivanja obveza veća je od praga) te broj pogrešaka u klasifikaciji.
Setting the threshold at 0.55 achieved 88% of correctly classified companies.
Postavljanje praga na 0,55 dalo je 88% ispravno klasificiranih poduzeća.
However, while 99% of non-defaulted companies are correctly classified using that threshold, only 17% of defaulted companies are correctly classified.
Međutim, korištenjem ovakvog praga ispravno je klasificirano 99% poduzeća koja podmiruju svoje obveze i samo 17% poduzeća koja svoje obveze neuredno podmiruju.
21 The reasons for this asymmetry in prediction accuracy is a domination of non-defaulted firms in the sample combined with an overlap between defaulted and non-defaulted firms in terms of their risk profiles, as assessed with the estimated credit risk model.
21 Razlozi te asimetrije u točnosti predviđanja jesu dominacija poduzeća koja uredno podmiruju svoje obveze u uzorku, u kombinaciji s preklapanjem između poduzeća koja neuredno podmiruju svoje obveze, i onih koja ih podmiruju u odnosu prema njihovim profilima rizika, kako je ustanovljeno procjenom modela kreditnog rizika.
Having in mind that type I error (wrong classification of defaulted companies) is in general more costly, we find the first threshold value more relevant for analysis.
Imajući na umu da je pogreška tipa I (pogrešna klasifikacija poduzeća koja neuredno podmiruju svoje obveze) općenito skuplja, nalazimo da je prva vrijednost praga relevantnija za tu analizu.
The second issue is related to the way banks award risk rating to each exposure and to the construction of firm ratings.
Drugo se pitanje odnosi na način na koji banke dodjeljuju rejting rizika svakoj izloženosti i na izradu rejtinga poduzeća.
database and individual companies' financial accounts collected by FINA, while our dependent variable - the state of default - is constructed on the basis of the ratings assigned to corporate debtors by commercial banks.
Relevantni podaci potrebni za procjenu modela dobiveni su iz regulatorne baze bonitetnih podataka HNB-a i financijskog računovodstva pojedinačnih poduzeća koje prikuplja FINA, dok je zavisna varijabla - stanje neurednog podmirivanja obveza - načinjena na temelju rejtinga što su ga poduzećima dužnicima dodijelile komercijalne banke.
Our research provides a number of important insights.
Naše istraživanje dalo je neke važne uvide.
We found no absorbing state
Otkrili smo da ni u jednoj promatranoj
in any of the observed matrices, which implies that default state is not final terminal state, so that dependent variable in our logit regression is bi-directionally formed.
matrici nema apsorbirajućeg stanja, što pokazuje da stanje neurednog podmirivanja obveza nije konačno stanje, tako da je zavisna varijabla u našoj logit-regresiji formirana dvosmjerno.
We generally find a high degree of rating stability in the corporate sector, with the exception of some volatility generated by A90d rated firms.
Općenito nalazimo visok stupanj stabilnosti rejtinga poduzeća, uz iznimku volatilnosti koju stvaraju poduzeća ocijenjena kao A90d.
We find migration frequencies quite insensitive to the economic activity of enterprises.
Nalazimo da je učestalost promjena prilično neosjetljiva na ekonomsku aktivnost poduzeća.
Economic cycle seems to matter only slightly: in the period of lower growth we found that reversal probabilities (PRs) are systematically reduced.
Čini se da konjunkturni ciklus ima malu važnost: opazili smo da je u razdoblju sporijeg rasta vjerojatnost obrata (PR) sustavno smanjena.
Non-financial services have similar profile as the unconditional matrix, but PRs are somewhat lower in industry and higher in construction where we also find evidence of relatively highest rating's instability.
Nefinancijske usluge imaju sličan profil kao bezuvjetna matrica, ali PR je nešto niži u industriji i veći u građevini, gdje nalazimo i dokaze o relativno najvećoj nestabilnosti rejtinga.
After considering a wide range of financial ratios and other factors as potential pre
Nakon razmatranja širokog niza financijskih pokazatelja i drugih faktora kao poten
We find that the most important predictors of default risk are the ratio of shareholders' equity to total assets and the ratio of EBIT to total liabilities (both of the ratios are negatively related to the probability of default).
Otkrili smo da su najvažniji pokazatelji rizika neurednog podmirivanja obveza omjer dioničkog kapitala prema ukupnoj imovini i omjer zarade prije kamata i oporezivanja prema ukupnim obvezama (oba su omjera u negativnom odnosu prema vjerojatnosti neurednog podmirivanja obveza).
In addition, higher liquidity, profitability and sales as well as operating in construction and real estate sector all decrease the companies' probability of default in the following year.
K tome, veća likvidnost, profitabilnost i prodaja, kao i poslovanje u sektoru građevine i nekretnina, smanjuju vjerojatnost neurednog podmirivanja kreditnih obveza poduzeća u sljedećoj godini.
As for the role of the economic sector, only the construction and real estate sector dummy was found to have significant explanatory power for the default risk of the companies.
Kad je riječ o ulozi gospodarskog sektora, otkriveno je da samo indikatorska varijabla sektora građevine i nekretnina ima značajnu eksplanatornu moć rizika neurednog podmirivanja kreditnih obveza poduzeća.
Also, there are several ways to refine the described model in order to increase its scope
ispravno predviđenih omjera i poduzeća koja neuredno podmiruju svoje obveze i onih koja ih uredno podmiruju.
Finally, our sample is limited in the time-series dimension.
područje primjene i eksplanatorna moć.
which related studies show to be significant predictors of the companies' probability of default.
Konačno, promatrani je uzorak ograničen dimenzijom vremenskih serija.
So, it is not only forecast's improvement that we should seek, but also diverse information depending on our analytical needs.
difikacija može promijeniti rezultate u smislu stvaranja faktora rizika za različite vremenske horizonte (“točka u vremenu” prema “kroz ciklus”).
comparison of ratings awarded by multiple banks and identification of possible sy
usporedbu rejtinga što ga je poduzeću dodijelilo više banaka i identificiranje mo
stematic overrating and comparison of exposure ratings awarded by the banks themselves with the model assessments of credit risk; stress-testing of individual banks after identification of relationships between ma
gućih sustavnih precjenjivanja te usporedbu ocjena izloženosti koje dodjeljuju same banke s modelom procjene kreditnog rizika; stres-testiranje pojedinih banaka nakon identificiranja odnosa između makrovari
cro-variables and corporate financial indicators (or inclusion of macro variables in the corporate credit risk model when the data time-span permits);
jabli i financijskih pokazatelja poduzeća (ili uključivanje makrovarijabli u model kreditnog rizika poduzeća kada to vremenski razmak dopušta); testiranje različitih
22 One of the major criticisms of the CNB's policy aimed at restraining domestic lending fueled by bank's foreign borrowing was that it deteriorates the quality of banks' balance sheets.
22 Jedna od glavnih kritika politike HNB-a usmjerene prema obuzdavanju domaćeg zaduživanja koje potiče zaduživanje banaka u inozemstvu jest da kvari kvalitetu bankovnih bilanci.
The rationale for this view was that it is the more creditworthy borrowers that are more likely to lean on external financing, while domestic banks get stuck with inferior companies in their balance sheets.
Razlog takvoga gledišta bilo je shvaćanje kako je vjerojatnije da se kreditno sposobni zajmoprimci oslanjaju na eksterno financiranje, dok domaće banke zapinju s bilancama inferiornih poduzeća.
However, this argument is purely hypothetical and solid empirical attempts to gauge the credit risk effects of stronger foreign borrowing are yet to be submitted.
Međutim, taj je argument izrazito hipotetičan, a čvrste empirijske pokušaje mjerenja učinaka kreditnog rizika većega stranog zaduživanja tek treba podastrijeti.
standard stress-testing
standardno stres testiranje
linear probability model
model linearne vjerojatnosti
multivariate logistic regression
multivarijantna logistička regresija
individual bank or group of banks
pojedina banka ili skupina banaka
early warning system (EWS)
sustav ranog upozoravanja (EWS)
CAMELS downgrade model
CAMELS model degradiranja
sensitivity of NPLs
osjetljivost NPL-a
probability of default (annual frequency)
vjerojatnost neurednog podmirivanja obveza (godiš. učestalost)
probability of rating migration and default (quarterly frequency)
vjerojatnost promjene i nepodmiriv. obveza (tromjes. učestalost)
probability of rating migration and default (quarterly frequency)
vjerojatnost promj. rejtinga i nepodm. obv. (tromjesečna učestalost)
migration rating model
model promjene rejtinga
Source: CNB, authors' calculations
Izvor: HNB, izračun autora
q3/2006 q4/2006 q1/2007 q2/2007 q3/2007 q4/2007 q1/2008 q2/2008 q3/2008 q4/2008 --------- industry - - - - - - construction --------- non-financial services
q3/2006 q4/2006 q1/2007 q2/2007 q3/2007 q4/2007 q1/2008 q2/2008 q3/2008 q4/2008 --------- industrija - - - - - - građevina --------- nefinancijske usluge
Source: CNB, authors' calculation
Izvor: HNB, izračun autora
b) Migration matrices conditional on economic cycle
b) Matrice promjena ovisne o konjukturnom ciklusu
The t-statistics is derived from binominal standard error p p N
T-statistika je izvedena iz binomialne standardne pogreške p p N
1− , where pij are population probabilities and pij are sample probabilities (with total number of firms N).
1− , gdje je pij vjerojatnost populacije, a pij vjerojatnost uzorka (s ukupnim brojem poduzeća N).
agriculture and manufacturing 1.887 326 0.173 1.915 281 0.147
poljoprivreda i proizvodnja 1,887 326 0,173 1,915 281 0,147
Source: CNB, FINA
Izvor: HNB, FINA
Mean Median Std. Dev.
Medijan Std. dev.
W_1_2* cash + short-term financial assets
W_1_2* novac + kratkoročna financijska imovina
W_1_7 short-term assets
W_1_7 kratkoročna imovina
W_2_1 total liabilities
W_2_1 ukupne obveze
W_2_2 shareholders' equity
W_2_2 dionički kapital
W_2_8* retained earnings
W_2_8* zadržana dobit
total assets - total liabilities
ukupna imovina - ukupne obveze
W_2_12* after tax profit + depreciation
W_2_12* dobit nakon poreza + amortizacija
W_2_19 total assets - total liabilities
W_2_19 ukupna imovina - ukupne obveze
W_3_1* total revenue
W_3_1* ukupni prihod
accounts receivable turnover
tekuća potraživanja promet
W_5_3* profit after tax + interest expenses
W_5_3* dobit nakon poreza + troškovi kamate
W_5_22 sales + depreciation
W_5_22 prodaja + amortizacija
W_7_4*** total revenue W_7_5*** sales
W_7_4*** ukupni prihod W_7_5*** prodaja
Source: Authors' calculation
Izvor: izračun autora
Cash to short-term liabilities
Novac prema kratkoročnim obvezama
Cash to total assets
Novac prema ukupnoj imovini
Shareholders' equity to total assets
Dionički kapital prema ukupnoj imovini
Shareholders' equity to total liabilities
Dionički kapital prema ukupnim obvezama
After tax profit + depreciation to debt / 365
Dobit nakon poreza + amortizacija prema dugu / 365
365 / accounts receivable turnover
365 / promet potraživanja od kupaca
Coefficient Standard error
Koeficijent Standardna pogreška
z-statistic Marginal effect
z-statistika Marginalni učinak
EBIT to total liabilities
i por. prema ukupnim obvezama
Sales + depreciation to total assets
Prodaja + amortizacija prema ukupnoj imovini
Source: Authors' calculation
S engleskoga prevela Mirna Jakšić, Zagreb
Bourguignon, F., Fournier, M. and Gurgand, M., 2004.
Bourguignon, F., Fournier, M. i Gurgand, M., 2004.
Charitou, A., Neophytou, E. and Charalambous, C., 2004.
Charitou, A., Neophytou, E. i Charalambous, C., 2004.
Fuertes, A. and Kalotychou, E., 2005.
Fuertes, A. i Kalotychou, E., 2005.
On Sovereign Credit Migration: Small-sam
On Sovereign Credit Migration: Small-sample
ple Properties and Rating Evolution Faculty of Finance.
Properties and Rating Evolution Faculty of Finance.
J. and Vinther, H.
J. i Vinther, H.
Assessing Credit Risk of the Companies Sector.
Our research provides a number of new important insights.
Presentation at Annual Regional Seminar On Financial Stability Issues held by IMF and National Bank of Romania.
Probabilities of default are relatively stable across enterprises operating in different economic activities.
How do the Parliament, Government and Ministry of Finance function?
Na koji naèin funkcioniraju Sabor, Vlada i Ministarstvo financija?
The analysis of the Parliament's work concerning the annual budget shows that this body does not efficiently perform its function within the budgetary process and budget debate.
Analiziramo li rad Sabora u proraèunskim pitanjima, utvrdit æemo da to tijelo ne obavlja kvalitetno svoju ulogu u proraèunskom procesu i raspravi o proraèunu.
This is mainly the result of, inter alia, an inferior position of the Parliament to that of the Government, lack of infrastructure, i.e. offices and funds, as well as the budgetary and time constraints.
Glavni su razlozi, izmeðu ostaloga, inferioran polo aj s obzirom na Vladu, nedostatak infrastrukture poput ureda i sredstava, te proraèunsko i vremensko ogranièenje.
In 2003, Croatia introduced a new Budget Act (official gazette Narodne Novine, No 96/03).
Hrvatska je 2003. godine donijela novi Zakon o proraèunu (NN 96/03).
Pursuant to this Act, the state budget is a document, which comprises the estimates of the government's reve
Prema tom zakonu, dr avni proraèun je akt kojim se procjenjuju prihodi i pri
The Parliament does not adequately perform its tasks within the budgetary process.
Sabor ne obavlja kvalitetno svoju ulogu u proraèunskom procesu.
This is due to its inferior position to that of the Government, lack of infrastructure, i.e. offices, and funds, as well as budgetary and time constraints.
Razlog tome je inferioran polo aj u usporedbi s Vladom, nedostatak infrastrukture poput ureda, sredstava, te proraèunsko i vremensko ogranièenje.
In order to improve the Parliament's operation it is necessary to allocate more funds for the professional improvement of employees, to organise a continuous or supplementary education for MP's, to establish the budget of the Committee on Finance and State Budget (The Budget Committee), to improve the efficiency of that Budget Committee and to facilitate communication between the Ministry of Finance, Government, Parliament and, particularly, the Budget Committee.
Za kvalitetniji rad Sabora nu no je poveæati sredstva za usavršavanje uposlenika, kontinuirano ili dodatno obrazovati i zastupnike, osnovati proraèun Odbora za financije i dr avni proraèun, unaprijediti rad tog odbora te poboljšati komunikaciju izmeðu Ministarstva financija, Vlade, Sabora i posebice Odbora za proraèun.
It is especially important that the Government or the Ministry of Finance should provide timely and reliable information to the Parliament and the Budget Committee on all issues relevant to the budget.
Posebno je bitno da Vlada odnosno Ministarstvo financija pravodobno i kvalitetno informira Sabor odnosno Odbor za proraèun o svim za proraèun relevantnim temama.
A successful development of the budgetary process is based on fiscal (budgetary) institutions (Parliament, Government, Ministry of Finance and State Audit Office), of which the first three are the most important.
Osnovu uspješnog funkcioniranja proraèunskog procesa èine fiskalne (proraèunske) institucije (Sabor, Vlada, Ministarstvo financija i Dr avni ured za reviziju), od kojih su kljuène prve tri.
A necessary prerequisite for a normal and efficient functioning of these three institutions in the budgetary process is the existence of their own budgets and an ongoing employee training.
Nu na je pretpostavka normalnoga i kvalitetnog funkcioniranja tih triju institucija u proraèunskom procesu postojanje vlastitih proraèuna te stalna izobrazba zaposlenih.
Therefore, for a better insight into these issues we present the budgets of the three aforementioned institutions participating in the budgetary process showing the situation over the last six years.
Stoga radi što boljeg uvida u to donosimo proraèune tih triju institucija u proraèunskom procesu i situaciju posljednjih šest godina, s izdacima za struèno usavršavanje uposlenika.
With the exception of the first observed year, the amounts allocated for the Parliament's operation have continuously decreased during the last six years.
Osim prve promatrane godine, iznosi izdvajani za funkcioniranje Sabora posljednjih šest godina konstantno su smanjivani.
However, it would be interesting to see why the budget expenditures for the highest legislative body rose by several million in 1999.
Bilo bi zanimljivo vidjeti razloge višemilijunskog poveæanja proraèunskih izdataka za vrhovno zakonodavno tijelo tijekom 1999. godine.
Allocations to the Government remained almost equal throughout the observed period (around 180 million kuna on average).
Iznosi izdvajani za Vladu gotovo su jednaki u cijelom promatranom razdoblju (prosjeèno oko 180 milijuna kuna).
It is interesting to note that that the former coalition government, which was in power from 2000 till end-2003, received almost 20 million kuna more for its operations that the former one-party government.
Zanimljivo je kako je koalicijska Vlada, koja je bila na vlasti od 2000. do kraja 2003. godine, izdvajala za svoj rad gotovo 20 milijuna kuna više nego prijašnja, jednostranaèka vlada.
This is certainly contrary to the coalition campaign promises of retrenchment and reduction in the number of ministries.
To je svakako u suprotnosti s predizbornim koalicijskim obeæanjima o štednji i smanjenju broja ministarstava.
However, the most interesting are the budgets of the Ministry of Finance.
No najzanimljiviji su proraèuni Ministarstva financija.
In the period 1998 to 2003 (budget plan), expenditure rose by over 6 billion kuna, i.e. more than 60%.
Od 1998. do 2003. godine (plan proraèuna) izdaci su poveæani za više od 6 milijardi kuna, odnosno za više od 60%.
This is understandable insofar as the amounts payable by the Ministry of Finance for debt servicing on account of various loans (due to the growing amounts required for public debt repayment, particularly for financing road construction) are becoming higher and higher.
To je donekle i razumljivo ako se uzmu u obzir sve veæi iznosi koje Ministarstvo financija mora davati za otplatu kreditnih anuiteta uzetih po raznim osnovama (zbog sve veæih iznosa koji se izdvajaju za otplatu javnog duga posebice za financiranje izgradnje autocesta).
However, this is barely the same amount (ca. 17 million kuna) as that recorded at this Ministry during the transfer of authority and the inauguration of the coalition government in 2000.
No taj je iznos (gotovo 17 milijardi kuna) na gotovo istoj razini koju je ta institucija imala tijekom tranzicije vlasti i dolaska koalicije na èelo Hrvatske (2000).
Who implements the individual phases of the budgetary process in Croatia?
Tko provodi pojedine faze proraèunskog procesa u Hrvatskoj?
The implementation of the planned fiscal policy is based on efficient functioning of all participants in the budgetary process.
Uèinkovito funkcioniranje svih institucija u proraèunskom procesu omoguæuje provedbu planirane fiskalne politike.
However, the state budget is revised almost every year.
U isto vrijeme gotovo svake godine svjedoci smo rebalansa proraèuna.
Budget revisions are exclusively the result of inadequate budget planning.
Rebalansi se dogaðaju iskljuèivo zbog neadekvatnog planiranja proraèuna.
The causes of deficiencies, which are directly reflected in the budget and, consequently, in budget revisions are to be looked for in a bad budgetary process and a poor functioning of institutions participating in the preparation, proposing and execution (implementation, supervision and control) of the budget.
Razloge za nedostatke koji se izravno ogledaju u proraèunu, a time i u rebalansima proraèuna, treba tra iti u lošem proraèunskom procesu i slabom funkcioniranju institucija koje su izravno ukljuèene u proces pripreme, predlaganja i izvršenja (provedbe, nadzora i kontrole) proraèuna.
Now, who is responsible for the normal implementation of each individual phase of the budgetary process in Croatia and to what extent?
No tko je, kada i u kojem obujmu odgovoran za normalnu provedbu pojedine faze proraèunskog procesa u Hrvatskoj?
- professional improvement of employees
- struèno usavršavanje uposlenika
Who Controls Budgetary Process in Croatia?
- struèno usavršavanje uposlenika
However, due to unrealistic estimates of revenues in the budget proposals that have been submitted to the Parliament so far, budget expenditure outdid budget revenue.
proraèun do sada predlagao Saboru s nerealnim prognozama prihoda te su kao rezultat proraèunski rashodi bili veæi od izvora prihoda.
This problem has been resolved through budget revisions, forced revenue collection, accumulation of arrears and borrowing.
Takve su situacije dosad rješavane rebalansima, prisilnim naplatama, akumulacijom zaostalih plaæanja i zaduivanjem.