natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Simulationsresultaterne bør dog ikke tages for pålydende. På den ene side er de forbundet medklare forbehold, fx eventuel ikke-linearitet og asymmetri, samt at modeller ikke omfatter alletransmissionskanaler.
Finally, secondround effects refer to the possibility that, in addition to the direct and indirecteffects mentioned above, an oil price shock may have a further impact on inflation because itmight result in higher wage claims to compensate for the decline in real income.
På den anden side skal det dog også bemærkes, at ud fra et strukturelt synspunkt er der flere tegn på, at euroområdets økonomi er blevet mere robust over for stød til oliepriserne i de seneste år, hvorved modelsimulering kan overvurdere virkningen.
Such secondround effects tend to occur with a lag. Typically, besides the expectations concerning thepersistence of the shock, the occurrence of secondround effects depends on whether theeconomic context, in particular the labour market situation, encourages higher wage claims.
Først og fremmester olieforbruget i produktionen og olieforbrugets andel af det samlede energiforbrug faldet betydeligt i euroområdet i forhold til 1970'erne.
In2004, secondround effects related to the oil price shock remained contained owing to thecyclical position of the euro area economy and labour market conditions.
Desuden spiller pengepolitikkens troværdighed ogreaktion en vigtig rolle i forbindelse med at fastsætte olieprisstigningers indvirkning på euroområdets økonomi, hvilket gør det vanskeligt at kvantificere udviklingen.
Less wage indexationthan in the 1970s and 1980s may have also contributed to reducing the role played by inflationin the wage formation process.
Der er dog klart brug for yderligere strukturreformer, så euroområdets økonomi lettere og hurtigere kan tilpasse sig fremtidige stød.
There are primarily two channels through which oil price shocks affect the real economy.
Det vil især være en fordel at øge den effektive konkurrencei euroområdets energisektor, da højere oliepriser derved kan opsuges uden betydelige forvridninger.
First,there is the supply-side channel, because oil is an important input factor in the productionprocess.
I denne forbindelse er det ikke hensigtsmæssigt at kompensere for olieprisstigninger med finanspolitiske tiltag, fx skattelettelser, da det vil øge de eksisterende forvridninger i resurseallokeringen og derved hindre økonomiske aktører i at tilpasse sig et sådant eksternt stød.
A rise in the price of oil entails, particularly in the short term, an increase inproduction costs, as the options for substituting other energy sources for oil are limited.
Se desuden artiklen omtalt i fodnote 1.
Thelevel of output may fall as a result of the oil price increase, which may also imply lower demandfor other production factors such as labour.
STIGENDE PRODUCENTPRISER PÅ TIDLIGE TRIN I PRODUKTIONSKÆDENDen samlede årlige vækst i producentpriserne iindustrien (ekskl. byggeriet) i euroområdet stegstøt i løbet af 2004 (se figur 24).
Second, on the demand side, an increase in oilprices entails a deterioration in the terms of trade of net oil-importing economies like the euroarea.
Stigningen tiltog i 2. kvartal og kunne hovedsagelig tilskrivesenergipriserne og priserne på halvfabrikata.
The resulting decline in real income translates into lower domestic demand insofar as it isnot compensated for by reduced saving or increased borrowing.
Deter i overensstemmelse med stigningerne i oliepriserne og priserne på råvarer ekskl. olie, sompressede inputpriserne på de tidlige trin i produktionskæden.
A number of other channels,which are more difficult to measure, transmit the effects of an oil price shock via confidence orstock markets for example.
Priserne på halvfabrikata steg igennemsnit med 3,5 pct. i 2004 i forhold til 0,8pct. i 2003.
Model-based quantification of the impact of the oil price increase
DYNAMISKE BOLIGPRISERBoligpriserne i euroområdet, som ikke indgår i HICP, fortsatte den kraftige opgang i 2004 ogsteg med 6,9 pct. i 1. halvår i forhold til 1. halvår2003.
The impact of the oil price increase observed over the last year on euro area inflation and real GDP growth can be approximated using different models.
Tallet dækker dog over modsatrettede tendenser i de forskellige eurolande, fx en tocifretstigningstakt i Spanien, Irland, Frankrig og Italien og et lille fald i Tyskland.
Such estimations generally suggestthat a 20% increase in oil prices raises euro area inflation by about 0.2 percentage point in thefirst year, with a further impact of around 0.1 percentage point expected for the following twoyears.
De foreliggendetal for 2. halvår 2004 tyder på, at de kraftige prisstigninger er fortsat, og 2004 er således detfjerde år i træk med boligprisstigninger på omkring 67 pct. (se figur 23). Denne periode medvedvarende robuste stigninger fulgte imidlertidefter en periode med forholdsvis beskedne stigninger (på under 3 pct.) i midten af 1990'erne.
As regards real GDP growth, the estimated impact would amount to around -0.1 to -0.3percentage point in the first year, with only a minor effect in the second and third years.2
Der var dog næsten ingen tegn på, at der opstodbetydelige prispres på senere trin i produktionskæden.
2For further information, see also the article referred to in footnote 1.
De enkelte komponenter i producentpriser i industrien
On average, consumer goodsproducer prices grew by 1.3%, still below theirhistorical average but above the averageincrease of 1.1% in 2003.
Udviklingen i boligpriserne i euroområdet
Chart 24 Breakdown of industrial producerprices
(Ændring i pct. år/år; årlige observationer)
(annual percentage changes; annual data)
(Ændring i pct. år/år; månedlige observationer)
(annual percentage changes; monthly data) in nominal terms
Energi (venstre akse)Industri ekskl. byggeri (højre akse)Halvfabrikata (højre akse)Kapitalgoder (højre akse)Forbrugsgoder (højre akse)
10 energy (left-hand scale)industry excl. construction (right-hand scale)intermediate goods (right-hand scale)capital goods (right-hand scale)consumer goods (right-hand scale)
Kilde: ECBs beregning, baseret på ikke-harmoniserede observa-tioner.Anm.: 2004-observationerne vedrører 1. halvår 2004.
Source: ECB calculations, based on non-harmonised nationaldata.Note: Data for 2004 refer to the first half of the year.
først begyndt at gøre sig gældende i priserne påforbrugsgoder i begyndelsen af 2005.
decline was broadly based across the mainsectors of the economy (see Chart 25), althoughit was somewhat stronger in market-relatedservices.
Den afdæmpede efterspørgsel kan dog afholde virksomheder fra at lade stigninger i energipriserneog priserne på halvfabrikata gå videre til næstetrin i produktionskæden.
Theannual growth rate of negotiated wages stoodat 2.2% in 2004, compared with 2.4% in 2003.Anecdotal evidence from wage bargainingagreements signed in the period up to late 2004
i gennemsnit med 1,3 pct., hvilket stadig var lavere end det historiske gennemsnit, men højereend den gennemsnitlige stigning på 1,1 pct. i2003.
Growth in compensationper employee showed a decline in the first halfof 2004, with an average annual growth rate of2.2% compared with 2.4% in 2003. This
2.4UDVIKLINGEN I PRODUKTION, EFTERSPØRGSEL OG ARBEJDSMARKED
With ongoingmoderate real GDP growth and limitedpressure in euro area labour markets, wagedevelopments remained subdued in 2004.
Industri ekskl. byggeri Byggeri Tjenesteydelser
industry excl. constructionconstructionservices
1999200020012002Kilder: Eurostat og ECBs beregninger.
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Densamlede vækst i BNP på 1,8 pct. i 2004, hvilketer det højeste niveau siden 2000, var stort set ioverensstemmelse med forventningerne ultimo2003. Opsvinget kunne tilskrives den kraftigeeksport, som var 5,6 pct. højere i 2004 end i2003.
At 1.8%, the highest raterecorded since 2000, overall GDP growth in
(Kvartalsvise bidrag i procentpoint; sæsonkorrigeret)
(percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated; seasonally adjusted)
Privat forbrug Offentligt forbrug Faste bruttoinvesteringer Lagerændringer 3)4)
Domestic demand Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories 3), 4)
Real bruttoværditilvækst:heraf:Industri ekskl. byggeri Byggeri Markedsrelaterede tjenesteydelser 6)
Real gross value addedof which:Industry excl. construction Construction Purely market-related services
Kilder: Eurostat og ECBs beregninger.1) Ændring i pct. i forhold til samme periode året før.2) Ændring i pct. i forhold til det foregående kvartal.3) Bidrag til væksten i realt BNP; i procentpoint.4) Inkl. anskaffelser minus afhændelse af værdier.5) Eksport og import dækker varer og tjenesteydelser og omfatter grænseoverskridende intra-euroområdehandel.
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Percentage change compared with the same period a year earlier.2) Percentage change compared with the previous quarter.3) As a contribution to real GDP growth; in percentage points.4) Including acquisitions less disposals of valuables.5) Exports and imports cover goods and services and include internal crossborder trade in the euro area.
Intra-euroområdehandelfratrækkes ikke i tal for import og eksport i nationalregnskaberne. Disse observationer er derfor ikke fuldt sammenlignelige med beta-lingsbalanceobservationer.6) Inkl. handel, transport, istandsættelse, hoteller og restauranter, kommunikation, finansiering, erhvervsrelaterede tjenesteydelser, fast ejendom og lejemål.
Since intra-euro area tradeis not cancelled out in import and export figures used in national accounts, these data are not fully comparable with balance ofpayments data.6) Includes trade, transport, repairs, hotels and restaurants, communication, finance, business services, real estate and renting services.
gativ effekt på hele euroområdets konkurrenceevne, selv om den medførte lavere olieomkostninger for importørerne i euroområdet.
(quarterly percentage point contributions; seasonally adjusted) real GDP 1)final domestic demand exports
ducere væksten i den udenlandske efterspørgselefter euroområdets eksport i løbet af 2. halvår2004.
Inparticular, growth on a quarter-on-quarterbasis was higher in the first half of the year thanin the second.
EU definerer den overordnede prioritering inden for forskellige områder af den økonomiske politik i de overordnede retningslinjer for de økonomiske politikker (BEPG). På grundlag heraf opstilles politikhenstillinger for hvert enkelt EU-land.
From mid-2003 to mid2004 the recoverywas largely driven by export growth, whilethe contribution of final domestic demand(i.e. excluding changes in inventories) wasrelatively modest (see Chart 26).The moderationof quarter-on-quarter growth in the second halfof 2004 largely resulted from a marked decline inthe contribution from the external sector, whichwas only partially compensated for by graduallyincreasing final domestic demand growth.
Hvad angår arbejdsmarkedsområdet, understreges det i de overordnede retningslinjer for de økonomiske politikker for 2003-05 og 2004-op-dateringen heraf med henblik på integrering af de nye medlemslande, at der er behov for at: (i)forbedre de kombinerede incitamentsvirkninger fra skatte- og overførselsindkomstsystemerne, sådet kan betale sig at arbejde, (ii) sikre en effektiv aktiv arbejdsmarkedspolitik rettet mod de dårligst stillede grupper, (iii) fremme en mere fleksibel arbejdstilrettelæggelse og revidere reglernefor ansættelseskontrakter; (iv) lette den geografiske og faglige mobilitet og (v) sikre, at lønforhandlingssystemerne giver mulighed for, at lønningerne afspejler produktiviteten.
With the exception ofchanges in inventories, these developments arebroadly consistent with the characteristics ofrecoveries observed in the past few decades in theeuro area.
I de seneste år har en række lande gennemført reformer af deres skatte- og overførselsindkomstsystemer for at mindske de arbejdskraftsrelaterede omkostninger, der ikke er forbundet med lønnen, samt øge udbuddet af arbejdskraft.
The pattern of economic growth in 2004 wasalso influenced by specific external factors,including oil price and exchange ratedevelopments.
Indkomstskatten er faldet i de laveste og midterste indkomstgrupper, og arbejdstagernes og arbejdsgivernes sociale bidrag er reduceret, især for de lavtlønnede.
Euro area growth was affectednot only by the direct impact of oil priceincreases, in the form of increased productioncosts and reduced purchasing power ofconsumers’ income, but also indirectly via theimpact on the international environment.
Endvidere er flere mennesker i periferien af arbejdsmarkedet kommet i arbejde. Visse EU-lande har styrket vikarbureauernes rolle og lempet lovgivningen vedrørende beskyttelse i ansættelsen i vikarkontrakter.
Thestrong expansion of global economic activityobserved at the beginning of 2004 wasdampened in the second half of the year.
Arbejdstidsbestemmelserne er også ændret, så beregningen af denmaksimale tilladte arbejdstid i hele EU er blevet mere fleksibel, og retten til deltidsarbejde er udvidet i nogle lande.
Similarly, thesignificant appreciation of the euro exchangerate observed during most of 2003, despitehaving reduced the cost of oil for euro areaimporters, also had a lagged negative effect onthe competitiveness of the euro area as a whole.
Der er visse tegn på, at virksomhederne bruger deres arbejdskraft mere fleksibelt som følge af tidligere reformer.
As regards the domestic side, quarter-on-quarter growth in private consumption was onaverage relatively weak during 2004, reflectingnot only subdued labour market developmentsbut also continuing uncertainty regarding theimplementation of necessary structural reforms(see Box 6 for more details on the progresswith structural reforms).
De fleste EU-lande indførte yderligere arbejdsmarkedsreformer i 2004, herunder fortsat reform afindkomstskattesystemerne, omstrukturering af de sociale sikrings- og overførselsindkomstsystemer og politikker, der forhøjede den gennemsnitlige pensionsalder.
Structural reforms in product and labour markets are essential to enhance Europe’s economicgrowth potential, facilitate adjustment and increase resilience to shocks.
Reformerne lever imidlertidikke op til regeringernes annoncerede hensigter.
Measures to raise thepotential rate of economic growth are all the more important in view of the downward impactthat population ageing is likely to have on future labour supply.
Der er gjort begrænsede fremskridt med hensyntil at gøre det attraktivt for flere mennesker at arbejde, at investere i akkumulering af humankapital samt at forbedre både arbejdstagernes og virksomhedernes evne til at tilpasse sig de skiftendemakroøkonomiske forhold.
In March 2000 the Lisbon European Council introduced an ambitious reform agenda aimed at making the EU the mostcompetitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010. The November2004 report by the highlevel group chaired by Wim Kok1 formed the starting point for the midterm review of this strategy.
Tiltag, som kan reducere langtidsledigheden gennem efteruddannelsesamt øge arbejdskraftsproduktiviteten gennem faglig og professionel udvikling og livslang læring, står stadig højt på reformagendaen.
In February 2005 the European Commission’s Spring Report tothe European Council called for increased national ownership of the Lisbon strategy, itssimplification and streamlining and an increased focus on growth and employment.
Endvidere er der behov for yderligere reformer for at øgearbejdskraftens mobilitet ved at forbedre betingelserne for overførsel af pension og rettigheder påsundhedsområdet samt ved at give mulighed for løndifferentiering i overensstemmelse med lokale, regionale og sektormæssige produktivitetsforskelle.
The midterm review of the strategy was concluded by the European Council in March 2005. This boxbriefly reviews the progress made in implementing the EU’s reform agenda over recent yearsand particularly in 2004.
I de overordnede retningslinjer for de økonomiske politikker opfordres medlemslandene bl.a. til at fremme konkurrencen på vare- og tjenestemarkederne ved at (i) gennemføre direktiverne om det indre markedi national lovgivning hurtigere, (ii) åbne yderligere for offentlige indkøb, (iii) give konkurrenceog tilsynsmyndighederne tilstrækkelige beføjelser og resurser samt sikre deres uafhængighed, (iv)reducere statsstøtten og (v) fremme markedsadgang og effektiv konkurrence i netværkssektoren.
These priorities then form the basis of policyrecommendations which are made for each EU Member State. In the field of labour markets,the BEPGs for the period 2003-05, together with the update of the BEPGs carried out in 2004 toincorporate the new Member States, stress the need to: (i) improve the combined incentiveeffects of taxes and benefits in order to make work pay, (ii) ensure efficient, active labourmarket policies targeted towards the most disadvantaged groups, (iii) promote a more flexibleorganisation of work and review employment contract regulations, (iv) facilitate geographicaland occupational mobility, and (v) ensure that wage bargaining systems allow wages to reflectproductivity.
Den procentdel af EUs lovgivning om det indre marked, som medlemslandene endnu ikke hargennemført i national lovgivning, steg yderligere.
Over recent years a number of countries have implemented reforms in their tax and benefitsystems in order to reduce non-wage labour costs and encourage labour supply.
Europa-Kommissionen har via forskellige initiativer forsøgt at forbedre det indre markeds funktion, især i servicesektoren, hvor der stadig erbetydelige hindringer.
Income taxrates have decreased in the bottom and middle income brackets and employees’ and employers’social security contributions have been reduced, particularly for the low-paid.
Mange af disse hindringer skyldes tilsyneladende national lovgivning, fxadministrative byrder og procedurer for etablering af datterselskaber i andre EU-lande.
Moreover,progress has been made in increasing the employment rate among people on the margins of thelabour market.
I begyndelsen af 2004 enedes det irske, hollandske, luxembourgske og britiske formandskab om et fællesinitiativ til at prioritere lovreformer i løbet af 2004 og 2005 og kraftigt øge bestræbelserne på atreducere den administrative byrde.
Some Member States have strengthened the role of temporary work agenciesand relaxed employment protection legislation on temporary contracts.
Mange lande har truffet foranstaltninger til at øge effektiviteten og gennemsigtigheden i procedurerne for offentlige indkøb.
There have also beenchanges to working time regulations to allow for a more flexible calculation of maximumallowable working hours across the EU, and the right to work parttime has been extended insome countries.
Desuden har nogle lande øgetkonkurrence- og tilsynsmyndighedernes beføjelser og uafhængighed.
There is some evidence that firms have acquired greater flexibility in their useof labour resources as a result of reforms implemented in the past.
Konkurrencen i tidligere beskyttede sektorer, fx el- og gassektoren, bør dog øges yderligere.
For example, recentevidence suggests that the adjustment of working hours played a more important role in theeuro area in the 2001-03 slowdown than in earlier cycles.2
Sammenfattende blev der gjort yderligere fremskridt med strukturreformerne i 2004, især på arbejdsmarkederne, men generelt var reformtempoet stadig skuffende.
1For more details, see Section 1.1 of Chapter 4.2For more details, see the box entitled “Developments in total hours worked in the euro area” in the October 2004 issue of the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin.
Ifølge flere forskellige spredningsmål aftogspredningen i den reale BNP-vækst mellemeurolandene i 2004.
Most EU Member States introduced further labour market reforms in 2004, including thecontinued reform of income tax systems, the restructuring of social security and benefitsystems, and policies to increase the average retirement age.
Delvis som følge af det globale økonomiske opsving steg den gennemsnitlige årlige vækst i realt BNP i alle eurolandene i2004 i forhold til 2003, bortset fra Grækenland,hvor den dog stadig var forholdsvis kraftig.
However, reforms seem to lagbehind what is implied in government announcements. Limited progress has been made inattracting more people into the labour market, investing in human capital accumulation andincreasing the adaptability of both workers and enterprises to changing macroeconomicconditions.
Beskæftigelsen faldt fortsat i industrien (ekskl.byggeriet) i løbet af 2004, hvor nedgangen dogaftog i flere kvartaler i træk, mens beskæftigelsen i servicesektoren steg konstant.
The structural reform agenda for product markets covers a wide range of areas. Among otherthings, the BEPGs urge Member States to foster competition in goods and services markets by:(i) transposing internal market directives more quickly into national legislation, (ii) furtheropening up public procurement, (iii) giving adequate powers and resources to competitionand regulatory authorities and ensuring their independence, (iv) reducing state aid and(v) encouraging market entry and effective competition in network industries.
Arbejdskraftsproduktiviteten steg stadig betydeligt i2004 (især i industrisektoren) (se figur 27).
The percentage of EU internal market legislation which Member States had not yet transposedinto national law (known as the “transposition deficit”) increased further.
Væksten i arbejdskraftsproduktiviteten er steget siden medio 2003, hvilket afspejler en usædvanligkonjunkturudvikling inden for aktivitet og beskæftigelse.
The European Commission has taken several steps to improve the functioning of the internal market, inparticular in the service sector, where some significant barriers to its functioning remain.
Arbejdsløsheden i euroområdet lå stort set stabiltpå 8,8 pct. i 2004 (se figur 28).
At the beginning of 2004 the Irish, Dutch, Luxembourg and British presidencies agreed upon a joint initiative to prioritiseregulatory reforms over the course of 2004 and 2005 and step up efforts to reduce theadministrative burden.
Arbejdsløshedenhar heller ikke ændret sig betydeligt, hvad angårkøn og aldersgrupper.
In addition, some countries have increased thepowers and independence of their competition and regulatory authorities.
Antallet af arbejdsløsefaldt med ca. 50.000 samlet set i 2004 efter enmarkant stigning i 2003.
Moreover, the trendtowards reducing and redirecting state aid towards horizontal objectives seems to havecontinued over recent years, although state aid still plays an important role in some sectors,such as transport.
Disse tegn på forbedring var beskedne, men stemte overens med andre tegn på et vendepunkt på arbejdsmarkedet, fxstigningen i antallet af ledige stillinger i 2. halvår2004 efter en konstant nedadgående tendens siden 2001.
Member States have continued to implement regulatory reforms in networkindustries, although the regulatory reform agenda in this area has not yet been completed.De facto competition in previously sheltered sectors, such as electricity and gas, should beincreased further.
Arbejdsløsheden i de fleste eurolande var i storetræk uændret i gennemsnit mellem 2003 og2004, selv om arbejdsløshedstallene i noglelande til en vis grad var påvirket af statistiskeændringer.
To sum up, further progress with structural reform was made in 2004, especially in labourmarkets, but overall the pace of reform remained disappointing. As a result, the EU will mostlikely not be able to achieve the Lisbon targets unless Member States vigorously step up theirefforts to implement reform.
Alt i alt faldt spredningen i arbejdsløsheden mellem eurolandene en smule i 2004.
ECB Annual Report 2004
FORBEDRING AF ARBEJDSMARKEDET OG PRODUKTIVITETSVÆKSTEN I 2004Arbejdsmarkedsforholdene ændrede sig ikke betydeligt i euroområdet i 2004, selv om der er tegnpå gradvis forbedring.
IMPROVEMENT IN LABOUR MARKET ANDPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN 2004Labour market conditions did not changesignificantly in the euro area in 2004, althoughsigns of a gradual improvement can bedetected.
Efter at have været stortset uændret i 2003 steg beskæftigelsen i hele2004 (se tabel 4).
After remaining broadly unchangedin 2003, employment rose throughout 2004 (see Table 4).
Den samlede stigning var dogbeskeden.
The overall increase was moderate,