natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet er udtryk for nettotransaktionerne, som afvikles via residente MFIer, mellem den pengeholdende sektor i euroområdet og dens modparter uden for euroområdet.
The net external asset position of the MFI sector measures the net transactions, settled via resident MFIs, between the euro area money-holding sector and its counterparties outside the euro area.
Figur A. MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet og M3
Chart A MFI net external assets and M3
(Årlige strømme i milliarder euro)
(annual flows in EUR billions)
MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet (venstre akse) M3 (højre akse)
MFI net external assets (left-hand scale)M3 (right-hand scale)
ber) finansierer deres transaktioner med resten af verden.1 Et eksempel er, at en husholdning i euroområdet køber en obligation af en enhed, der er resident i USA.
The question of whether developments in the MFI net external asset position have an impact on M3 depends on the way in which euro area money-holding sectors, such as households ornon-fi financial corporations, finance their transactions with the rest of the world.1 For example, consider a situation in which a euro area household purchases a bond from a foreign entity resident in the United States.
Hvis købet går via en konto hos en MFI, indebærer det en nedgang i MFI-sektorens nettofordringer på udlandet. Det skyldes, at det kreditinstitut i euroområdet, der står for transaktionen, enten reducerer sine fordringer på korrespondentbanken i USA eller foretager et indskud i korrespondentbanken i USA.
If this transaction is conducted using accounts held at an MFI, it implies a decline in the net external assets of the MFI sector, as the euro area credit institution in charge of the transaction either decreases its claims on its correspondent bank in the United States or grants a deposit to the US correspondent bank.
Virkningen på M3 er dog tvetydig.
However, the impact on M3 is ambiguous.
På den ene side er der, hvis købet finansieres via husholdningens indlån på anfordring hos sit kreditinstitut, en afdæmpende virkning på M3, idet M1-komponenten aftager.
On the one hand, if the purchase is financed using the overnight deposits that the household holds with its credit institution, there will be a dampening impact on M3 as the M1 component declines.
På den anden side er der, hvis købet finansieres med et lån, som husholdningen optager i banken, ingen påvirkning af M3, men sammensætningen af M3s modposter ændres.2
On the other hand, if the transaction is financed by means of a loan granted to the household by the bank, there will be no impact on M3, but a change in the composition of the counterparts of M3.2
Omvendt, hvis en udenlandsk enhed køber et værdipapir af en enhed i euroområdets pengeholdende sektor og afvikler købet ved at overføre beløbet fra sin konto hos en MFI i euroområdet til modpartens konto, stiger M3 i forbindelse med en forøgelse af MFI-sektorens nettofordringer på udlandet.
Vice versa, if a foreign entity purchases a security from an entity in the euro area money-holding sector and settles this purchase by transferring money from its bank account at a euro area MFI to the bank account of the euro area entity, M3 will increase in connection with an increase in the net external assets of the euro area MFI sector.
Den monetære opstilling af betalingsbalancen er et vigtigt redskab til at analyserede faktorer, der ligger til grund for udviklingen i MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet.
An important tool for investigating the factors underlying developments in the MFI net external asset position is the “monetary presentation of the balance of payments”.
Denne opstilling sammenkæder betalingsbalancestatistikken og MFIernes balancestatistik, så det bliver muligt at bestemme, hvorvidt kapitalstrømmene bag udviklingen i nettofordringerne på udlandet stammer fra euroområdets pengeholdende sektorer eller fra residenter uden for euroområdet, og hvorvidt de afspejler udveksling af varer og tjenesteydelser eller direkte investeringer og porteføljeinvesteringer.
This framework establishes a link between the balance of payments statistics and the MFI balance sheet statistics and makes it possible to determine whether the capital flows behind developments in the net external asset position originate from euro area money-holding sectors or from non-residents, and whether they reflect the exchange of goods and services or direct and portfolio investment.
Forklaring af udviklingen i MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet siden slutningen af 2006
Explaining developments in MFI net external assets since late 2006
Ifølge den monetære opstilling af betalingsbalancen var stigningen i MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet fra slutningen af 2006 til foråret 2007 primært drevet af porteføljeinvesteringer i aktiver i euroområdet, navnlig gældsinstrumenter, men også aktier (se figur B).3
The monetary presentation of the balance of payments suggests that the main source of the upward movement in the MFI net external asset position between late 2006 and spring 2007 was portfolio investment in euro area assets – particularly in debt securities, but also in equities (see Chart B).3
En fordeling af kapitalstrømmene efter oprindelse viser, at stigningen i den årlige strøm af MFI-ernes nettofordringer på udlandet hovedsagelig kan tilskrives ikke-residenters øgede investeringer i euroområdet frem for residenters hjemtagning af midler fra udlandet.
Looking at the origin of the capital flows suggests that the rise in the annual flow of MFI net external assets resulted mostly from foreigners’ stronger investment in the euro area, rather than euro area residents’ repatriation of funds from abroad.
Det kan afspejle et gunstigt investeringsklima i euroområdet for udenlandske markedsdeltagere, idet de finansielle markeder var karakteriseret ved lav volatilitet og rigelig likviditet. Ikke-residenters kraftige efterspørgsel efter gældsinstrumenter i euroområdet, på baggrund
Foreign investors’ portfolio investment in euro area debt securities was strong as of mid-2006, with annual flows reaching a new high in April 2007 and remaining elevated until the third quarter of 2007
I den monetære analyse bør det tages i betragtning, at det kun er transaktioner mellem den pengeholdende sektor i euroområdet på den ene side og banker og residenter uden for euroområdet på den anden side, der påvirker pengemængden direkte.
1 When analysing monetary developments, it should be borne in mind that only transactions between euro area money holders on the one hand and banks and noneuro area residents on the other have a direct impact on the money stock.
Transaktioner mellem ikke-MFIer i euroområdet indebærer simpelthen cirkulation af penge inden for den pengeholdende sektor, uden at det påvirker den samlede pengemængde i euroområdet.
A transaction between euro area nonMFIs simply represents the circulation of money within the money-holding sector, with no impact on the total money stock in the euro area.
Det er tilfældet, hvis private transaktioner finansieres ved udveksling af aktier. Det understreges, at nogle transaktioner, der påvirker MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet, overhovedet ikke påvirker hverken pengemængden eller kreditgivningen.
This is the case where private transactions are financed by an exchange of shares.2 It should be emphasised that some transactions which affect MFI net external assets have no impact whatsoever on either money or credit.
Hvis et kreditinstitut fx sælger en statsobligation udstedt i euroområdet til en resident uden for euroområdet, vil det påvirke MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet (opad) og kreditgivningen til den offentlige sektor (nedad), men ikke M3. Den monetære opstilling af euroområdets betalingsbalance er nærmere beskrevet i boksen "Den monetære opstilling af euroområdets betalingsbalance" i ECBs Månedsoversigt for juni 2003.
For example, a credit institution selling a euro area government bond to a non-resident will affect MFI net external assets (upwards) and credit to general government (downwards), without any impact on M3.3 For additional information regarding the monetary presentation of the euro area balance of payments, see the box entitled “Monetary presentation of the euro area balance of payments” in the June 2003 issue of the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin.
Figur C. Sammensætning af strømme af porteføljeinvesteringer
Chart C Composition of portfolio investment flows
Figur B. Sammensætning af den pengeholdende sektors kapitalstrømme og MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet
Chart B Composition of capital flows of the money-holding sector and MFI net external assets
af lavere nettoudstedelse fra den offentlige sektor i euroområdet, blev for en stor del opvejet af MFIernes salg af statspapirer.
Non-residents’ strong demand for euro area debt securities, in the context of reduced net issuance by euro area general government, was offset to a significant extent by sales of government securities by MFIs.
Desuden kan investorer uden for euroområdet have haft behov for likviditet til andre operationer, således at de ikke øgede deres investeringer i euroområdet.
Noneuro area investors may also have needed liquidity for other operations and may therefore not have increased their investment in the euro area.
Samtidig udnyttede residenter i euroområdet gunstige investeringsmuligheder i resten af verden.
At the same time, favourable investment opportunities in the rest of the world attracted investment by euro area residents.
Det kom til udtryk i den gradvise stigning i den årlige strøm af residente investorers porteføljeinvesteringer i udenlandske gældsinstrumenter.
This was visible in the gradual increase in the annual flow of portfolio investment in foreign debt securities by euro area investors.
Euroens styrkelse kan have bidraget til at gøre disse investeringer mere attraktive.
Such investment may have become increasingly attractive in the context of a strengthening euro exchange rate.
På baggrund af stort set uændrede udenlandske investeringer i gældsinstrumenter i euroområdet frem til august 2007 og et kraftigt fald siden da samt mere eller mindre stabile investeringer i udlandet foretaget af residenter i euroområdet aftog den årlige strøm af MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet i 2. halvår.
With foreign investment in debt securities in the euro area remaining broadly unchanged until August 2007 and declining strongly thereafter, and investment by euro area residents abroad remaining broadly stable, the annual flow in the MFI net external asset position moderated in the second half of the year.
Porteføljeinvesteringer i aktier i udlandet foretaget af ikke-MFIer i euroområdet er faldet konstant, mens ikke-residenters porteføljeinvesteringer i aktier i euroområdet har ligget stort set stabilt, om end på et langt mere afdæmpet niveau end investeringerne i gældsinstrumenter, trods et lille fald mod årets slutning.
As regards portfolio investment in equities, while investment by euro area nonMFIs abroad has been continuously declining, investment by foreigners in the euro area has remained fairly stable, albeit at a much more subdued level than investment in debt securities and despite declining slightly towards the end of the year.
Kvalitative oplysninger ultimo 2006 og primo 2007 tydede på, at globale investorer havde en gunstig opfattelse af aktiemarkederne i euroområdet, og at investorerne havde positive forventninger til indtjeningen i euroområdets virksomheder.
Qualitative information at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007 indicated that global investors viewed euro area equity markets favourably and that investors’ expectations for euro area corporate profits were positive.
Frem til medio 2007 pegede nettoporteføljeinvesteringerne i aktier på en kraftigere årlig indstrømning i MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet, som blev opvejet af den afdæmpende virkning af de direkte investeringer på nettobasis.
Up to mid-2007 net portfolio investment in equity pointed to stronger annual inflows in the net external asset position of MFIs, which were offset by the moderating impact of net direct investment.
Udviklingen vendte dog noget i 4. kvartal 2007, hvor den årlige strøm i nettoporteføljeinvesteringer i aktier aftog en del, men blev modsvaret af en lavere nettoudstrømning i direkte investeringer.
However, this pattern was reversed somewhat in the fourth quarter of 2007, when annual inflows for net portfolio investment in equity decreased somewhat, but were offset by reduced net outflows for direct investment.
Figur D. Udviklingen i eksterne bruttoaktiver og -passiver
Chart D Developments in gross external assets and liabilities
MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet (venstre akse) Eksterne aktiver Eksterne passiver
MFI net external assetsexternal assetsexternal liabilities
Den samtidige stigning i eksterne bruttoaktiver og -passiver kan være udtryk for øget finansiel integration.
Source: ECB.Such a simultaneous expansion of gross external assets and liabilities can be a reflection of stronger financial integration.
Konsekvenserne heraf kan bl.a. være, at transaktioner inden for MFI-sektoren – fx når MFIer i ét euroland finansierer udlån fra
One consequence of this could be that intra-MFI sector transactions, such as MFIs in one euro area country funding the lending of MFIs in another euro area country, are increasingly channelled through a financial centre located outside the euro area.
En anden mulighed er, at kreditinstitutter i euroområdet, fx pengemarkedsforeninger, udelukkende opererer på vegne af deres moderselskaber uden for euroområdet.
Another possibility is that resident credit institutions, for instance money market funds, operate solely on behalf of their noneuro area parent companies.
Hvis disse institutter kun modtager midler fra resten af verden og kun investerer midlerne på moderselskabets hjemmemarked, optræder deres aktiviteter kun under eksterne aktiver og passiver på den konsoliderede balance for MFI-sektoren i euroområdet.
If these institutions receive their funds only from the rest of the world and also invest them only in the parent company’s home market, their entire business will appear only in the external assets and liabilities of the consolidated balance sheet of the euro area MFI sector.
Det kan dog føre til en hurtig flytning af store mængder likviditet, hvilket kan resultere i betydelige kortvarige ændringer i strømmenes omfang og retning under MFIernes nettofordringer på udlandet.
However, this situation could possibly lead to large amounts of liquidity being shifted quickly, resulting in significant shortterm changes in the magnitude and direction of flows in the MFI net external asset position.
Det øger til gengæld den indenlandske monetære udviklings sårbarhed over for eksterne kræfter.
This, in turn, increases the exposure of domestic monetary developments to external forces.
Euroområdets MFI-sektors nettofordringer på udlandet har vist markante bevægelser siden slutningen af 2006, idet den årlige nettoindstrømning i marts 2007 lå højere end i perioden med porteføljeomlægninger fra 2001 til 2003.
The net external asset position of the euro area MFI sector has seen strong movements since late 2006, with net annual inflows in March 2007 that exceeded those observed in the period of portfolio shifts from 2001 to 2003.
Udviklingen i nettofordringerne på udlandet frem til foråret 2007 havde en synlig indvirkning på M3-væksten, idet mindste regnskabsmæssigt.
Developments in the net external asset position up to spring 2007 had a visible impact on the pattern of M3 growth, at least from an accounting perspective.
Euroområdets pengeholdende sektors transaktioner med resten af verden vil sandsynligvis stige i overensstemmelse med den globale integration af de finansielle markeder.
Transactions between the euro area money-holding sector and the rest of the world are likely to increase in scope with the worldwide integration of financial markets.
I lyset af disse transaktioners forskellige drivkræfter og ophav repræsenterer en detaljeret vurdering af udviklingen i nettofordringerne på udlandet en vigtig udfordring i ECBs monetære analyse.
Given the multiple driving forces and originators of such transactions, a detailed assessment of developments in net external assets in the context of the ECB’s monetary analysis will be an important challenge.
UROEN PÅ DE FINANSIELLE MARKEDER FØRTE TIL SPÆNDINGER PÅ PENGEMARKEDET Pengemarkedsrenterne steg over hele løbetidsspektret i 2007.
MONEY MARKET TENSIONS EMERGED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET TURMOIL Money market rates rose across the entire maturity spectrum in 2007.
I 1. halvår stemte det overens med stigningerne i ECBs officielle renter.
In the first half of the year this was in line with the increases in key ECB interest rates.
Yderligere markante stigninger i de usikrede pengemarkedsrenter sås i 2. halvår i kølvandet på turbulensen på pengemarkedet og de finansielle markeder.
Further significant increases in unsecured money market rates were seen in the second half of the year, following the turbulence in money and fi financial markets.
Spændet mellem usikrede og sikrede pengemarkedsrenter blev udvidet for alle løbetider bortset fra de meget korte.
The spread between unsecured and secured money market rates widened at all maturities with the exception of the very short term.
Selv om spændene indsnævredes lidt igen, var de stadig meget brede i begyndelsen af 2008.
These spreads, despite having declined, remained at elevated levels in early 2008.
den 9. august som følge af spændinger på pengeog kapitalmarkederne, der skyldtes bekymringer vedrørende bankernes eksponering over for tab på amerikanske subprime-realkreditlån og komplekse afledte instrumenter (se figur 10).
9 August onwards owing to the tensions in money and financial markets following concerns about banks’ exposure to losses resulting from US subprime mortgages and complex derivative instruments (see Chart 10).
De toppede medio december, hvor de underliggende spændinger på interbankmarkedet blev forstærket af usikkerhed vedrørende årsafslutningen.
These rates reached peak levels in mid-December, when the underlying tensions in the interbank market were exacerbated by uncertainties related to the year-end.
Den 29. februar 2008 lå 1-måneds, 3måneders og 12måneders Euribor på henholdsvis 4,20 pct., 4,38 pct. og 4,38 pct., dvs. 57, 66 og 35 basispoint højere end niveauet den 2. januar 2007.
On 29 February 2008 the one-month, three-month and twelve-month EURIBOR rates stood at 4.20%, 4.38% and 4.38% respectively, i.e. 57, 66 and 35 basis points higher than the levels observed on 2 January 2007.
Omvendt faldt de sikrede interbankrenter gradvis fra primo august, hvilket afspejlede en nedjustering af markedsforventningerne til den fremtidige udvikling i ECBs officielle renter.
By contrast, secured interbank interest rates fell gradually from early August onwards, reflecting the downward revision of markets’ expectations regarding the future path of key ECB interest rates.
De kraftige stigninger i de usikrede pengemarkedsrenter betød, at spændet mellem usikrede og sikrede pengemarkedsrenter udvidedes betydeligt, navnlig for løbetiderne fra 1 måned (se figur 11).
With the substantial increases seen in unsecured money market interest rates, the corresponding spread between unsecured and secured money market rates widened significantly, particularly at maturities of one month and longer (see Chart 11).
Spændene forblev udvidede i årets sidste måneder, idet spændet mellem 3måneders Euribor og 3måneders Eurepo (der er et indeks for
These spreads remained at elevated levels in the
Styrelsesrådet forhøjede ECBs officielle renter med 25 basispoint i både marts og juni 2007, så den marginale udlånsrente, minimumsbudrenten og indlånsrenten nåede op på henholdsvis 5 pct., 4 pct. og 3 pct. (se figur 1).
The Governing Council raised the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points in both March and June 2007, with the marginal lending rate, the minimum bid rate and the deposit rate reaching 5%, 4% and 3% respectively (see Chart 1).
I resten af 2007 og begyndelsen af 2008 var ECBs officielle renter uændrede.
In the remainder of 2007 and early 2008 the key ECB interest rates remained unchanged.
Efter at være steget støt i 1. halvår i overensstemmelse med forventningerne om yderligere stigninger i ECBs officielle renter steg de usikrede pengemarkedsrenter kraftigt fra
After rising steadily in the first half of the year in line with expectations of further increases in key ECB interest rates, unsecured money market rates rose strongly from fi final months of the year, with the spread between
(I pct. p.a.; daglige observationer)
(percentages per annum; daily data)
1-måneds Euribor (venstre akse) 3måneders Euribor (venstre akse) 12måneders Euribor (venstre akse) Spænd mellem 12måneders og 1-måneds Euribor (højre akse)
(percentages per annum; daily data) three-month EUREPO three-month EURIBOR three-month overnight interest swap one-month EURIBOR (left-hand scale)three-month EURIBOR (left-hand scale)twelve-month EURIBOR (left-hand scale)spread between twelve-month and one-month EURIBOR (right-hand scale)
Kilder: ECB og Reuters.
Sources: ECB and Reuters.
renten for genkøbsforretninger i den private sektor) toppede på 93 basispoint den 17. december på baggrund af de særlige spændinger, der observeredes i årets sidste del.
the three-month EURIBOR and the three-month EUREPO (an index for private sector repurchase agreements) reaching a peak of 93 basis points on 17 December on account of the particular tensions observed towards the end of the year.
Selv om spændet efterfølgende er indsnævret, til 43 basispoint den 29. februar 2008, er det stadig forhøjet i forhold til gennemsnittet på ca. 7 basispoint i 1. halvår 2007.
While this spread subsequently declined, reaching 43 basis points on 29 February 2008, it remained elevated by comparison with its average level of around 7 basis points in the first half of 2007.
Den implicitte rente for 3måneders Euriborfutureskontrakter med udløb i 2008 steg i løbet af 2007.
Interest rates implied by three-month EURIBOR futures for 2008 increased in the course of 2007.
Denne udvikling skal imidlertid også fortolkes med forsigtighed i lyset af de markante stigninger i Euribor-renterne som følge af spændingerne på pengemarkedet. Det er sandsynligvis med til at sløre disse renters sædvanlige informationsindhold vedrørende renteforventningerne.
Nonetheless, this too must be interpreted with caution given the sharp increases seen in EURIBOR rates in the context of the money market tensions, which are likely to blur the usual information content of these rates with regard to interest rate expectations.
Den 29. februar 2008 var renten udledt af 3måneders futureskontrakter med udløb i henholdsvis marts, juni og september 2008 4,36 pct., 4,05 pct. og 3,71 pct., dvs. 33 og 6 basispoint højere og 27 basispoint lavere end den 2. januar 2007.
On 29 February 2008 the interest rates implied by three-month futures contracts maturing in March, June and September 2008 stood at 4.36%, 4.05% and 3.71% respectively, i.e. 33 and 6 basis points higher and 27 basis points lower than on 2 January 2007.
Pengemarkedsrentekurvens hældning – målt ved spændet mellem 12måneders og 1-måneds Euribor – viste en vis volatilitet i 2007, idet spændet svingede mellem -15 og 50 basispoint.
The slope of the money market yield curve – as measured by the spread between the twelve-month and one-month EURIBOR rates – showed some volatility in the course of 2007, with that spread fluctuating between -15 and 50 basis points.
Den 29. februar 2008 var spændet 18 basispoint i forhold til 40 basispoint den 2. januar 2007 (se figur 10).
On 29 February 2008 this spread stood at 18 basis points, compared with 40 basis points on 2 January 2007 (see Chart 10).