natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Korrektionen på boligmarkedet, der allerede var begyndt i 2006, udgjorde fortsat en væsentlig bremseklods for vækst og skar næsten et helt procentpoint af væksten i BNP på grund af faldende boliginvesteringer.
The housing market correction, which had already begun in 2006, remained a major drag on growth and shaved almost a full percentage point off GDP growth through decreased residential investment.
Desuden forstærkedes uroen på det finansielle marked, som skyldtes subprime-real- kreditlån, fra sommeren 2007 og frem og var med til at lægge en dæmper på væksten mod årets slutning.
In addition, the subprime mortgagerelated financial market turbulence intensified from summer 2007 onwards, and contributed to curbing growth towards the end of the year.
Den økonomiske aktivitet var svingende gennem 2007, idet væksten i BNP lå under den potentielle vækst i 1. kvartal, mens den lå over i 2. og 3. kvartal, hvorefter den faldt igen i 4. kvartal.
In the course of 2007 economic activity was volatile, with GDP growth falling below its potential rate in the first quarter, surging above it in the second and third quarters, and declining again in the fourth quarter.
Under disse volatile forhold var væksten idet private forbrug fortsat overraskende kraftig til trods forhøje energipriser og uroen på boligmarkedet og det finansielle marked. Det kunne hovedsagelig tilskrives den fortsatte beskæftigelses- og indkomstvækst, der dog aftog betydeligt mod årets slutning.
Amid this volatility, private consumption growth remained surprisingly strong, despite high energy prices and the housing and financial market turbulence, mainly owing to continued employment and income growth, which, however, deteriorated significantly towards the end of the year.
Desuden steg erhvervsinvesteringerne kraftigt, understøttet af høj indtjening i virksomhederne og i 1. halvår af gunstige finansieringsvilkår.
In addition, nonresidential business investment growth was brisk, supported by high levels of corporate profitability and, during the first half of the year, favourable financing conditions.
Bidraget fra nettohandlen var for første gang siden 1995 positivt i 2007 som følge af robust global vækst samt depreciering af den reale effektive dollarkurs.
The net trade contribution turned positive in 2007 for the fi first time since 1995, reflecting buoyant global growth, as well as the depreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar.
Disse faktorer medvirkede til, at underskuddet på de løbende poster faldt fra 6,2 pct. af BNP i 2006 til 5,5 pct. i de første tre kvartaler af 2007.
These factors also explain the decline in the current account deficit from 6.2% of GDP in 2006 to 5.5% in the first three quarters of 2007.
Hovedparten af denne forbedring kunne tilskrives det faldende underskud på varebalancen.
The narrowing of the goods deficit accounted for the bulk of the improvement.
I 1. halvår 2007 fastholdt Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee federal fundsrenten på 5,25 pct. Da uroen på de finansielle markeder tiltog i sensommeren nedsatte Federal Reserve renten flere gange i september og oktober med i alt 75 basispoint.
In the first half of 2007 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%. After the financial market turbulence began to heighten in late summer, the Federal Reserve made a series of rate cuts in September and October by a total of 75 basis points.
Efter nedsættelsen på yderligere 25 basispoint i december lå federal fundsrenten på 4,25 pct. ved årets udgang, dvs. et helt procentpoint under renten primo året.
After one additional 25 basis point cut made in December the target rate stood at 4.25% at the end of the year, a full percentage point below its January level.
Federal Reserve benyttede sig også af andre pengepolitiske midler.
The Federal Reserve also used other monetary policy tools.
I august reducerede den spændet mellem federal fundsrenten og diskontorenten fra 100 basispoint til 50 basispoint.
In August it cut the spread between the federal funds and discount rates from 100 basis points to 50 basis points.
Den 12. december bebudede Federal Reserve yderligere pengepolitiske initiativer.
On 12 December it announced additional changes to its monetary policy tools.
Federal Reserve oprettede en midlertidig "Term Auction Facility" med henblik på at udbyde kapital til bankerne med længere løbetider og mere lempelig sikkerhedsstillelse, end det er tilfældet ved markedsoperationer.
The Federal Reserve established a temporary Term Auction Facility to auction term funds to depository institutions with longer maturities and looser collateral requirements than is the case in open market operations.
Samtidig aftalte Federal Reserve midlertidige likviditetstilførende operationer med ECB og Swiss NationalBank for at tilføre amerikanske dollar til brug i deres jurisdiktioner.
At the same time it agreed on temporary liquidity-providing operations with the ECB and the Swiss National Bank to provide US dollars for use in their jurisdictions.
Uroen på de finansielle markeder, der var affødt af en stigning i misligholdte lån og overtagelser af pant i amerikanske subprime-realkreditlån, forstærkedes i sommerens løb.
The financial market turbulence, which originated from increased delinquency and foreclosure rates for US subprime mortgages, heightened in the summer.
Effekten på realøkonomien i USA forblev dog ret begrænset i løbet af det meste af 2007 og var hovedsagelig knyttet til adgangen til og prisen på lån, navnlig subprime-realkreditlån.
However, its effects on the US real economy remained fairly limited during most of 2007 and were mainly related to the availability and price of loans, especially nonconforming mortgages.
Hvad angår finanspolitikken, faldt underskuddet på den føderale budgetsaldo i finansåret 2007 i forhold til 2006, hvilket primært skyldtes øgede indtægter fra personlig indkomstskat og færre udgifter.
As regards fiscal policy, the federal budget deficit declined in the fiscal year 2007 compared with 2006.
Vækstmarkedsøkonomierne udviste fortsat robust vækst og tegnede sig for en betydelig andel af den globale stigning i BNP i 2007, samtidig med at de modne økonomiers vækst aftog (se figur 3).
Growth in emerging economies remained solid and accounted for a significant share of world GDP growth in 2007, as mature economies’ expansion weakened (see Chart 3).
En række lande oplevede et vist inflationspres.
Some inflationary pressure surfaced in a number of countries.
Den økonomiske aktivitet i vækstmarkedsøkonomierne i Asien fortsatte med at stige kraftigt.
Economic activity remained robust in emerging Asia.
Til trods for mindre gunstige forhold uden for Asien i 2. halvår 2007 bidrog en kraftig indenlandsk efterspørgsel til væksten, navnlig i regionens største økonomier.
Notwithstanding a less favourable external environment in the second half of the year, strong domestic demand helped to support the growth momentum, notably in the largest economies of the region.
Inflationspresset var fortsat behersket i de fleste økonomier, hvilket til dels skyldtes mange landes pengepolitiske stramninger.
Inflationary pressures remained contained in most economies owing, in part, to the tightening in monetary policy implemented in many economies.
En undtagelse var Kina, hvor inflationen steg i løbet af året.
One exception was China, where inflation rose during the year.
Som følge af regionens solide makroøkonomiske resultater steg kurserne fortsat på de lokale aktiemarkeder til trods for store udsving.
Reflecting the region’s solid macroeconomic performance, valuations in local equity markets continued to rise amid large fluctuations.
Udviklingen på valutamarkederne syntes at være mere blandet.
Developments appeared to be more mixed in foreign exchange markets.
Den effektive valutakurs i visse vækstmarkedsøkonomier i Asien – fx den thailandske baht eller den indiske rupee – apprecierede betydeligt som følge af den kraftige kapitalindstrømning, mens den effektive kurs på andre valutaer stort set var stabil eller deprecierede.
Some emerging Asian currencies – such as the Thai baht or the Indian rupee – appreciated substantially in effective terms
I Japan fortsatte det økonomiske opsving i 2007, selv om den indenlandske efterspørgsel og navnlig det private forbrug aftog.
In Japan, the economic recovery continued in 2007, although domestic demand and in particular private consumption weakened.
Den realøkonomiske vækst blev mere afdæmpet i 2007, idet realt BNP steg med 2,1 pct. mod 2,4 pct. i 2006 og således lå tæt på den potentielle vækst for fjerde år i træk.
Growth in real activity moderated in 2007, with real GDP growing by 2.1% after 2.4% in 2006, remaining around potential for the fourth consecutive year.
Mens den økonomiske aktivitet stadig var understøttet af en fortsat stærk eksport, faldt den indenlandske efterspørgsels bidrag til væksten i BNP.
While economic activity remained supported by the continuing strength of exports, the contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth decreased.
Eksportaktiviteten nød godt af udviklingen i den effektive yenkurs og robuste udenlandske efterspørgsel, især fra Asien.
Export activity benefited from developments in the effective exchange rate of the Japanese yen and sound external demand, especially from Asia.
Væksten idet private forbrug aftog til 1,4 pct. mod 2,0 pct. i 2006, selv om arbejdsmarkedssituationen generelt stadig var gunstig.
Private consumption growth declined to 1.4% after 2.0% in 2006, although employment conditions remained favourable overall.
Endvidere faldt væksten i investeringerne i den private sektoren smule på trods af den stærke eksport.
Moreover, despite export momentum, private investment growth slowed down.
Det afspejlede et fald i boliginvesteringerne som følge af en nedgang i byggeaktiviteten, efter en ændring af loven om byggestandarder, og en nedgang i erhvervsinvesteringerne, der kunne tilskrives en vis afdæmpning af erhvervstilliden, navnlig blandt små og mellemstore virksomheder.
This reflected a decrease in residential investment driven by a contraction in construction activity following the revision of the Building Standards Law, and a slowdown in nonresidential investment driven by some moderation in business confidence, especially among small and medium-sized firms.
På trods af de afdæmpede økonomiske forhold fortsatte stigningen i bankernes udlån i 2007, dog i et langsommere tempo end i 2006, på baggrund af den øgede usikkerhed med hensyn til den globale finansielle udvikling.
Despite moderating economic conditions, bank lending continued to increase in 2007, although at a slower pace than in 2006, amid increased uncertainties in the global financial environment.
Udvalgte modne økonomier1)
(percentages) selected mature economies 1)BRIC 2) rest of the world
Forbrugerprisstigningerne var fortsat beherskede i Japan i 2007, navnlig som følge af moderate lønstigninger.
Consumer price inflation remained subdued in Japan in 2007, reflecting in particular subdued wage growth.
Efter at have været positiv i 2006 i kølvandet på højere råvarepriser blev den årlige stigning i forbrugerpriserne igen negativ i begyndelsen af 2007, men blev atter positiv i oktober på grund af en ny stigning i priserne på importerede råvarer.
After being positive in 2006 in the wake of higher commodity prices, annual consumer price inflation returned to negative territory at the beginning of 2007, before turning positive again in October as a result of the renewed increase in the price of imported raw materials.
Den årlige stigningstakt for forbrugerpriserne i året som helhed var 0,0 pct. mod 0,3 pct. i 2006, mens inflationen, når ferske fødevarer ikke medtages, var 0,0 pct. mod 0,1 pct. i 2006.
For the year as a whole, the annual rate of change in consumer prices was 0.0% after 0.3% in 2006, while excluding fresh food the annual rate of inflation was 0.0% after 0.1% in 2006.
Bank of Japan fortsatte i 2007 sin meget gradvise stramning af pengepolitikken i lyset af det afdæmpede inflationspres.
In 2007 the Bank of Japan continued its policy of a very gradual tightening of monetary conditions, in line with subdued inflationary pressures.
årets udgang, hvilket var ca. 17 dollar over toppunktet i august 2006.
Oil prices were subsequently volatile and stood at USD 94.9 per barrel at the end of the year, around USD 17 above the peaks reached in August 2006.
Målt i euro lå prisen kun 4 euro over toppunktet i august 2006 og ca. 40 pct. over prisen ultimo 2006.
Measured in terms of euro, prices were only around EUR 4 above the August 2006 peak and around 40% above the level of end-2006.
Prisen på Brent-råolie i året som helhed lå i gennemsnit på 71 dollar pr. tønde, dvs. 9 pct. højere end gennemsnittet for det foregående år.
For the year as a whole, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was USD 71, which was 9% above the average of the previous year.
Hvad Kina angår, fortsatte den kraftige økonomiske vækst i 2007.
Focusing on China, the economy continued to expand briskly last year.
Realt BNP steg med 11,4 pct. i 2007 mod 11,1 pct. i 2006 som følge af stabil indenlandsk efterspørgsel og en stærk nettoeksport.
Real GDP grew by 11.4% in 2007, up from 11.1% in 2006, on account of both sustained domestic demand and strong net exports.
Inflationspresset tiltog, idet væksten i forbrugerpriserne steg fra 2,2 pct. i januar til 6,5 pct. i december primært på grund af højere fødevarepriser.
Inflationary pressures picked up, with CPI inflation increasing from 2.2% in January to 6.5% in December, largely driven by higher food prices.
Den kinesiske renminbi apprecierede gradvis over for dollaren året igennem, selv om bevægelserne i den effektive kurs var mere beherskede.
The Chinese renminbi continued to appreciate gradually against the US dollar throughout the year, although movements in effective terms were more subdued.
People's Bank of China bebudede i maj en udvidelse af det daglige handelsbånd for renminbien over for dollaren fra +/- 0,3 pct. af referencekursen til +/- 0,5 pct. Handelsoverskuddet steg fortsat og nåede i 2007 sammenlagt op på 262 mia. dollar, svarende til ca. 8 pct. af BNP.
In May the People’s Bank of China announced a widening of the daily trading band of the renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar from +/-0.3% of the reference rate to +/-0.5%.
Det er næsten 50 pct. højere end overskuddet for hele 2006.
The trade surplus continued to widen, bringing the cumulated surplus in 2007 to USD 262 billion – or about 8% of GDP – almost 50% higher than the surplus for the whole of 2006.
Det betød, at valutareserverne fortsatte med at vokse og nåede op på i alt 1,5 billioner dollar, tæt på 50 pct. af BNP, ved udgangen af 2007.
In this context, foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, totalling USD 1.5 trillion, close to 50% of GDP, at the end of 2007.
Oliemarkederne var stramme året igennem.
Throughout the year oil markets remained tight.
På forsyningssiden havde OPEC sænket sine produktionskvoter og faktiske produktion mod slutningen af 2006, mens produktionsvæksten uden for OPEC ikke opfyldte forventningerne og således ikke kunne opveje den lavere produktion i OPEC.
As regards supply, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had lowered its production quota and actual production towards the end of 2006, while nonOPEC supply growth fell short of expectations and, thus, did not compensate for lower OPEC output.
Herudover reducerede visse produktionsforstyrrelser som følge af orkansæsonen midlertidigt forsyningerne.
In addition, some production disruptions attributable to the hurricane season temporarily reduced output.
Den globale efterspørgsel efter olie var stadig relativt robust.
Global demand growth remained relatively robust.
Efterspørgslen i de fleste lande uden for OECD, navnlig Kina, var fortsat kraftig som følge af den robuste økonomiske vækst.
Some weakness in OECD demand towards the end of the year was compensated for by robust non-OECD
Brent-råolie (USD pr. tønde; venstre akse) Råvarer ekskl. energi (USD; indeks: 2000 = 100; højre akse)
Brent crude oil (USD/barrel; left-hand scale)non-energy commodities(USD; index: 2000 = 100; right-hand scale)
UDVIKLINGEN I RÅVAREPRISERNE I 2007 Olieprisen steg kraftigt i 2007 for fjerde år i træk.
Economic growth also remained sustained in Latin America, albeit with some heterogeneity in the inflation and growth performances across economies.
Prisen på Brent-råolie steg til omkring 95,6 dollar pr. tønde sidst i november.
Improved macroeconomic fundamentals, a further reduction in financial vulnerabilities, high commodity prices and strong domestic demand continued to support the economic outlook.
Olieprisen var derefter volatil og lå på 94,9 dollar pr. tønde ved
In particular, spreads on credit default swaps on Latin American sovereign debt widened, but remained at low levels by historical standards.
2.2 DEN MONETÆRE OG FINANSIELLE UDVIKLING
2.2 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
FORTSAT STÆRK PENGEMÆNGDEVÆKST 2007 var endnu et år, der var karakteriseret ved stærk vækst i pengemængden og kreditgivningen, i fortsættelse af tendensen siden medio 2004.
THE PACE OF MONETARY EXPANSION REMAINED STRONGThe year 2007 was again characterised by strong monetary and credit growth, following the strengthening observed since mid-2004.
Den kraftige vækst afspejles i robust vækst i både det brede pengemængdemål, M3, og udlån til den private sektor (se figur 5), som lå på henholdsvis 12,0 pct. og 11,1 pct. i 4. kvartal 2007.
This strength is reflected in the continued high growth rates of both the broad monetary aggregate M3 and lending to the private sector (see Chart 5), which stood at 12.0% and 11.1% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2007.
ringssæsonen på den nordlige halvkugle, hvilket ellers er normalt.
demand growth. Demand in most non-OECD countries, in particular China, remained strong, reflecting robust economic performance.
De små olielagre gav anledning til bekymring om, hvorvidt der var tilstrækkelige stødpuder til at imødegå eventuelle fremtidige forstyrrelser i forsyningen (som følge af geopolitiske spændinger og ekstreme vejrforhold) på et tidspunkt, hvor oliemarkederne allerede var stramme.
Inventories in both the United States and the OECD countries failed to build up before the northern hemisphere heating season, a period when inventories normally increase. The low level of oil inventories triggered concerns about the lack of a safety cushion against possible future supply disruptions (related to geopolitical tensions and extreme weather) at a time when oil market conditions were already tight.
Mod årets udgang blev prisen mere og mere volatil, idet markedets opfattelse af en afmatning af den amerikanske og globale økonomi ændrede sig, og der skete en vis afvikling af spekulationer.
Towards the end of the year, prices became increasingly volatile as a result of changing market perceptions about a slowdown in the US and global economy and some unwinding of speculative activity.
Prisen forblev dog på et højt niveau, eftersom Det Internationale Energiagentur bekræftede, at udsigterne for den globale efterspørgsel efter olie i 2008 var positive på grund af en kraftig efterspørgselsvækst i landene uden for OECD og antydede, at der eventuelt ville blive færre oliefund i løbet af det kommende årti.
Prices stayed at high levels, however, as the International Energy Agency confirmed the positive outlook for global oil demand in 2008 owing to strong non-OECD demand growth and hinted at possible lower rates of oil discovery over the next decade.
En bredt funderet analyse af udviklingen i pengemængden viser, at væksten i M3 i 2007 muligvis i nogen grad overvurderer den underliggende pengemængdevækst. Det kan skyldes de stimulerende virkninger af den forholdsvis flade rentekurve, som bevirkede, at investorerne i højere grad foretrak kortfristede MFI-indskud frem for langfristede indskud og værdipapirer.
A broad-based analysis of monetary developments shows that the growth of M3 in 2007 may somewhat overstate the underlying rate of monetary expansion, owing to the stimulative effect of the relatively flat yield curve, which increased the attractiveness of shortterm MFI deposits relative to longerterm deposits and securities.
Den kraftige vækst i M3 kan således til en vis grad være drevet af spekulativ efterspørgsel efter monetære aktiver.
Consequently, strong M3 growth may, to some extent, have been driven by speculative demand for monetary assets.
Samtidig har stigningerne i ECBs officielle renter siden december 2005 tydeligvis fortsat påvirket pengemængden og kreditgivningen.
At the same time, the increases in key ECB interest rates since December 2005 have clearly continued to influence money and credit developments.
De stigende korte renters påvirkning af udviklingen i pengemængden gjorde sig stadig gæl-
The impact of these increases in shortterm interest rates on monetary dynamics remained visible, for example, in the
(Ændring i pct. år/år; sæsonkorrigeret og korrigeret for kalendereffekter)
(annual percentage changes; adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects)
M3 Udlån til den private sektor
M3loans to the private sector
M1 Andre kortfristede indskud (M2-M1) Omsættelige instrumenter (M3-M2)
M1other shortterm deposits (M2-M1)marketable instruments (M3-M2)
seneste udvikling.
most of the strong overall monetary expansion as well as its recent dynamics.
Den kraftige vækst dækker imidlertid over forskellige tendenser i de enkelte delkomponenter.
However, this strong growth masks divergent developments across the various sub-components.
Der ses for tiden en kraftig indstrømning af kortfristede indskud (dvs. indskud med en løbetid på op til 2 år), som viste en årlig vækst på 41,4 pct. i december 2007, i forhold til 27,2 pct. i december 2006, mens nedgangen i indskud med et opsigelsesvarsel på op til 3 måneder er fortsat, med 3,6 pct. i 2007 indtil december, efter lave vækstrater ultimo 2006.
The ongoing strong inflows for shortterm time deposits (i.e. deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years), which grew at an annual rate of 41.4% in December, up from 27.2% in December 2006, were accompanied by a continuous decline in theholdings of deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months, which declined by 3.6% in the year to December, after low levels of growth at the end of 2006.
M3s KOMPONENTER VAR PÅVIRKET AF DEN FLADE RENTEKURVE På komponentsiden aftog den årlige vækst i M1 yderligere til 4,1 pct. ultimo 2007, hvilket er et godt stykke under den tocifrede vækst fra 2003 tilslutningen af 2005, inden ECB forhøjede sine officielle renter.
COMPONENTS OF M3 WERE INFLUENCED BY THE FLAT YIELD CURVEOn the components side, the annual growth rate of M1 moderated further to stand at 4.1% at the end of 2007, well below the double-digit growth rates observed between 2003 and late 2005 before the key ECB interest rates were increased.
Afdæmpningen ses i begge M1komponenter, nemlig indlån på anfordring og seddel- og møntomløbet.
This moderation is visible in both components of M1, i.e. overnight deposits and currency in circulation.
Væksten i M1 i 2007 var påvirket af to modsatrettede faktorer.
M1 growth in 2007 was influenced mainly by two countervailing forces.
På den ene side har de stigende alternativomkostninger ved at besidde M1 som følge af rentestigningerne siden december 2005 haft en afdæmpende virkning, men på den anden side har der været en større transaktionsbaseret efterspørgsel efter M1.
On the one hand, there was a dampening effect resulting from the rising opportunity cost of holding M1 associated with the increases in interest rates since December 2005.
Sidstnævnte skyldes den fortsat robuste økonomiske aktivitet samt et potentielt ønske om at besidde reserver i M1 i lyset af den seneste tids uro på de finansielle markeder.
On the other hand, there was greater transaction-related demand for M1 given the continued strength of economic activity, as well as, potentially, a desire to hold M1 as a buffer in the context of the recent financial turmoil.