natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
De monetære observationer bekræftede således den vedvarende opadrettede tendens i den underliggende vækst i pengemængden og kreditgivningen, som begyndte medio 2004.
Given the upward path of oil prices implied by futures contracts, and viewed against the background of past energy price developments, annual inflation rates were expected to fall only slightly in the ensuing months before rising significantly towards the end of the year.
Styrelsesrådet var derfor af den opfattelse, at den monetære udvikling fortsat krævede meget nøje overvågning, især på baggrund af den solide økonomiske vækst og vedvarende kraftige udvikling på ejendomsmarkedet i euroområdet.
In the Governing Council’s view, risks to the outlook for price developments remained on the upside at the mediumterm horizon. These risks were in particular related to stronger than expected wage dynamics in an environment of increasing capacity utilisation and gradually improving labour markets.
Den monetære analyse bekræftede endnu en gang, at der var opadrettede risici for prisstabiliteten på mellemlangt til langt sigt, idet den underliggende pengemængdevækst stadig var stærk på baggrund af en allerede rigelig likviditet.
since mid-2004. At the same time, in the context of rising mortgage rates throughout the euro area and slowing housing markets in some regions, the growth of household borrowing showed signs of moderation, although at a high level.
Dette afspejlede siden fortsat hurtige vækst i både M3 og kreditgivningen.
The monetary data thus confirmed the persistent upward trend in the underlying rate of money and credit expansion that had been observed since mid-2004.
Samtidig var der, når der sås bort fra de faktorer, der påvirkede udviklingen i pengemængden og kreditgivningen på kort sigt, flere og flere tegn på, at højere korte renter gradvis påvirkede pengemængdevæksten, selv om de stadig ikke dæmpede den underliggende vækst i pengemængden og kreditgivningen.
The Governing Council therefore took the view that monetary developments continued to require very careful monitoring, especially in a context of sound economic expansion and persistently strong property market dynamics in the euro area.
På baggrund af de opadrettede risici for prisstabiliteten, som blev påvist i både den økonomiske og monetære analyse, besluttede Styrelsesrådet den 8. marts 2007 at forhøje ECBs officielle renter med 25 basispoint.
Overall, in view of the prevailing upside risks to price stability identified by both the economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to increase the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 8 March 2007.
Styrelsesrådet var af den opfattelse, at ECBs pengepolitik på baggrund af de gunstige økonomiske forhold stadig var til den ekspansive side, selv efter beslutningen om yderligere forhøjelse af ECBs officielle renter.
Furthermore, the Governing Council took the view that, even after the decision to further raise the key ECB interest rates, and given the favourable economic environment, the monetary policy of the ECB continued to be on the accommodative side.
Samlet set understøttede krydstjekket mellem resultatet af den økonomiske analyse og resultatet af den monetære analyse Styrelsesrådets vurdering af, at risiciene for prisstabiliteten på mellemlangt sigt primært var opadrettede.
The monetary analysis continued to confirm prevailing upside risks to price stability at medium to longer horizons, with the underlying rate of monetary expansion remaining vigorous in a context of already ample liquidity.
I lyset heraf besluttede Styrelsesrådet den 6. juni at forhøje ECBs officielle renter med yderligere 25 basispoint.
This was reflected in the continued rapid growth of both M3 and credit.
Hvad angår den økonomiske aktivitet, bekræftede de foreliggende observationer tydeligt, at euroområdets økonomi fortsatte væksten, og at denne var betydelig kraftigere end forventet for et år siden.
As regards economic activity, available data clearly confirmed that the euro area economy was continuing to expand at a pace that was significantly stronger than expected a year earlier.
Væksten i realt BNP var 0,8 pct. kvartal-til-kvartal i 1. kvartal 2007 og lå dermed igen noget over tidligere forventninger.
With a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of
Samtidig blev intervallet for 2008 justeret en anelse ned efter olieprisstigningerne,
All in all, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis underpinned the Governing Council’s
siciene for prisstabiliteten på mellemlangt sigt slog igennem.
projections were deemed to lie on the downside, relating mainly to a potentially broader impact of the increased volatility and ongoing repricing of risk in financial markets on financing conditions and economic sentiment.
inflation på mellem 1,9 pct. og 2,1 pct. i 2007 og mellem 1,5 pct. og 2,5 pct. i 2008, idet et aftagende pres fra indirekte skatter og energipriser forventedes at blive udlignet af pres fra højere enhedslønomkostninger.
Against this background, the Governing Council decided to raise the key ECB interest rates by a further 25 basis points on 6 June. On this occasion, the Governing Council stated that, even after this decision, the ECB’s monetary policy was still on the accommodative side.
Ifølge Styrelsesrådets vurdering var risiciene for disse udsigter for prisudviklingen stadig opadrettede.
Therefore, it would be warranted to act in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability over the medium term.
INGEN ÆNDRINGER AF ECBs OFFICIELLE RENTER I 2.
As regards price developments, annual HICP inflation stood at 1.7% in August, but over the remainder of the year, inflation rates were projected to exceed 2%, largely determined by the pattern of base effects in energy prices.
HALVÅR 2007 I 3. kvartal var løbende observationer om den økonomiske aktivitet fortsat positive og understøttede den vurdering, at der stadig var en solid vækst i euroområdets økonomi i overensstemmelse med Styrelsesrådets grundlæggende scenario.
NO CHANGES TO KEY ECB INTEREST RATES IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2007 In the course of the third quarter, incoming data on economic activity remained positive, supporting the view that the euro area economy was continuing to expand at sustained rates in line with the Governing Council’s baseline scenario.
Selv om væksten kvartal-til-kvartal i realt BNP faldt til 0,3 pct. i 2. kvartal, fra 0,8 pct. i 1. kvartal, fulgte den samlede økonomiske vækst i 1. halvår det underliggende potentiale.
While quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth declined to 0.3% in the second quarter, after 0.8% in the first quarter, economic growth in the first half of the year, viewed as a whole, was in line with potential.
Efter udbruddet af krisen på det amerikanske subprimerealkreditmarked og den finansielle uro i august 2007, der fulgte med, var udsigterne for den økonomiske aktivitet i euroområdet imidlertid omgærdet af usædvanlig stor usikkerhed, som krævede nøje overvågning af hele udviklingen, især på de finansielle markeder.
Following the outbreak of the crisis in the US subprime mortgage loan market and the associated financial turmoil in August 2007, however, the prospects for economic activity in the euro area were subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty, which warranted the close monitoring of all developments, particularly those in financial markets.
Den monetære analyse bekræftede fortsat denne vurdering, idet den vedvarende kraftige vækst i pengemængden og kreditgivningen pegede i retning af opadrettede risici for prisstabiliteten på mellemlangt til langt sigt.
The monetary analysis continued to confirm this assessment, with the continued vigour of the underlying rate of monetary and credit expansion pointing to the existence of upside risks to price stability at medium to longer horizons.
På baggrund af den aktuelle finansielle uro påpegede Styrelsesrådet, at volatilitet på de finansielle markeder kunne påvirke pengemængdevæksten midlertidigt, idet ændringer i den private sektors holdninger til risiko kan føre til større porteføljeskift til sikre og likvide monetære aktiver, som det tidligere er set i lignende situationer.
Against the background of the ongoing financial turmoil, the Governing Council recalled that volatility in financial markets could temporarily influence monetary dynamics, since – as demonstrated in previous episodes – changes in private sector attitudes towards risk could be associated with large portfolio shifts into safe and liquid monetary assets.
Styrelsesrådet var således af den opfattelse, at en grundig og omfattende analyse af de monetære observationer og tallene for kreditgivningen var påkrævet forbedre at forstå, hvordan den finansielle udvikling påvirker den monetære udvikling, og udlede det pengepolitisk relevante signal fra pengemængdevæksten, hvad angår tendenserne i inflationsudviklingen på længere sigt.
Thus, the Governing Council was of the view that anin-depth and comprehensive analysis of monetary and credit data was needed to better understand the impact of financial developments on monetary developments and to extract the policy-relevant signals from monetary growth with regard to longerterm inflationary trends.
I ECBs stabs makroøkonomiske fremskrivninger i september 2007 forventedes væksten i realt BNP i 2007 at ligge inden for intervallet 2,2 pct. til 2,8 pct., hvilket var en mindre nedjustering i forhold til eurosystemets stabs fremskrivninger fra juni 2007.
In the ECB staff macroeconomic projections of September 2007, the range foreseen for real GDP growth in 2007 was 2.2% to 2.8%, implying a slight downward revision compared with that of the Eurosystem staff projections of June 2007.
Dette skyldtes hovedsagelig antagelsen om noget højere oliepriser og noget strammere finansieringsforhold, sidstnævnte som afspejling af højere risikopræmier i lyset af den finansielle uro. For 2008 angav fremskrivningerne stadig et interval for den økonomiske vækst mellem 1,8 pct. og 2,8 pct., hvilket var uændret i forhold til eurosystemets stabs fremskrivninger fra juni 2007.
This was due mainly to the assumption of somewhat higher oil prices and somewhat tighter financing conditions, the latter reflecting higher risk premia in the light of the financial turmoil.For 2008, the projected range for economic growth remained between 1.8% and 2.8%, unchanged from that in the June 2007 Eurosystem staff projections.
På trods af de opadrettede risici for prisstabiliteten, som var påvist i både Styrelsesrådets økonomiske og monetære analyse, mente Styrelsesrådet, at der i lyset af den store usikkerhed, som fulgte i kølvandet på den finansielle uro, var behov for yderligere oplysninger, inden der kunne drages flere pengepolitiske konklusioner.
Notwithstanding the prevalence of upside risks to price stability, as identified by both its economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council took the view that, given the high level of uncertainty in the wake of the financial turmoil, additional information was needed before further conclusions for monetary policy could
tidig høj inflation ville således blive noget længere end tidligere forventet.
Hence, the period of temporarily high rates of inflation would be somewhat more protracted than previously expected.
I eurosystemets stabs fremskrivninger i december 2007 forventedes inflationen at stige til et interval mellem 2,0 pct. og 3,0 pct. i 2008 for derefter at aftage til mellem 1,2 pct. og 2,4 pct. i 2009.
In December 2007 Eurosystem staff projected inflation to rise to a range between 2.0% and 3.0% in 2008, before moderating to a range between 1.2% and 2.4% in 2009.
I forhold til ECBs stabs fremskrivninger fra september 2007 var intervallet for 2008 opjusteret, hvilket hovedsagelig afspejlede den antagede udvikling i olie- og fødevarepriserne.
Compared with the ECB staff projections of September 2007, the range for 2008 was shifted upwards, largely reflecting the assumed path of oil and food prices.
Selv om foreliggende tillidsindikatorer faldt en del som følge af den høje volatilitet og revurderingen af risici på de finansielle markeder siden primo august 2007, lå de generelt på et niveau, der pegede i retning af vedvarende økonomisk vækst i 4. kvartal, men dog mere afdæmpet end i 3. kvartal.
Moreover, available confidence indicators, while declining somewhat in the context of the high volatility and the repricing of risk in financial markets since early August 2007, generally remained at levels that pointed to ongoing economic growth in the fourth quarter, albeit probably at a more moderate pace than in the third quarter.
Alt i alt vurderede Styrelsesrådet, at de økonomiske nøgletal for euroområdet fortsat var sunde, rentabiliteten fastholdt og beskæftigelsesvæksten robust.
Overall, it was the assessment of the Governing Council that the economic fundamentals of the euro area remained sound, with profitability sustained and employment growth robust.
I december 2007 angav eurosystemets stabs fremskrivninger et interval for væksten i realt BNP på mellem 2,4 pct. og 2,8 pct. i 2007, mellem 1,5 pct. og 2,5 pct. i 2008 og mellem 1,6 pct. og 2,6 pct. i 2009.
In December 2007 Eurosystem staff projected real GDP growth to be in the range between 2.4% and 2.8% in 2007, between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2008, and between 1.6% and 2.6% in 2009.
Mens intervallet for 2008 blev nedjusteret en smule i fremskrivningerne, lå det nye interval for 2007 i den øvre del af det tidligere interval.
While the ranges projected for 2008 were revised slightly downwards, the new range for 2007 remained in the upper part of the previous one.
Hvad pengemængden angår, var der kun få tegn på, at den finansielle uro siden august 2007 havde haft en stærk indvirkning på den brede pengemængde og kreditgivningen.
On the money side, there was little evidence that the financial turmoil since August 2007 had strongly influenced the dynamics of broad money and credit expansion.
Væksten i banklån til den indenlandske private sektor var fortsat robust i 2. halvår 2007, hvilket tydede på, at kreditudbuddet ikke var blevet indskrænket.
In fact, the growth of bank loans to the domestic private sector remained robust in the second half of 2007, suggesting that the supply of credit had not been impaired.
Samlet set understøttede en bredt funderet vurdering af de monetære observationer det synspunkt, at den underliggende vækst i pengemængden og kreditgivningen stadig var stærk.
Overall, a broad-based assessment of the monetary data supported the view that the underlying rate of money and credit expansion remained strong.
På baggrund heraf var Styrelsesrådets hovedscenario for en vækst i realt BNP omkring det trendmæssige potentiale stadig til stede i 2008 og 2009.
Against this background, the Governing Council’s main scenario of real GDP growing around its trend potential remained in place in 2008 and 2009.
I euroområdet forventedes både forbruget og investeringerne at bidrage til den økonomiske vækst.
On the domestic side, both consumption and investment were expected to contribute to economic expansion.
Samtidig forventedes den eksterne efterspørgsel også fremover at støtte euroområdets eksport, såfremt den globale økonomi forblev robust, idet den økonomiske afmatning i USA delvis blev opvejet af vækstmarkedsøkonomiernes styrke.
At the same time, external demand was expected to continue to support euro area exports, provided that the global economy remained resilient, with the economic slowdown in the United States being partly offset by the sustained strength of emerging market economies.
Udsigterne for den økonomiske vækst i euroområdet var således fortsat gode, selv om risiciene stadig var nedadrettede. Disse risici var hovedsagelig forbundet med den aktuelle finansielle uros potentielle indvirkning på finansieringsvilkårene og konjunkturbarometrene, med mulige negative effekter på væksten i euroområdet og i verden.
Prospects for economic growth in the euro area thus remained resilient, although the risks to this outlook remained on the downside.
blev anset for at være påkrævet for at sikre, dels at anden rundeeffekter fra høje inflationsrater og andre risici for prisstabiliteten ikke slog igennem, dels at inflationsforventningerne på mellemlangt til langt sigt forblev fast forankrede i overensstemmelse med prisstabilitet.
Readiness to act was seen as being warranted in order to ensure both that secondround effects from high inflation rates and other risks to price stability did not materialise and that medium to longterm inflation expectations remained firmly anchored in line with price stability.
2 DEN MONETÆRE, FINANSIELLE OG ØKONOMISKE UDVIKLING
2MONETARY, FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
2.1 DE GLOBALE MAKROØKONOMISKE FORHOLD den store efterspørgsel fra vækstmarkedsøkonomierne, den stigende produktion af biobrændstof og en dårlig høst i visse lande.
2.1 THE GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT particularly food, which was only partly offset by a decline in metals prices.
I betragtning af fødevarernes vægt i prisindekset, har inflationspresset været endnu mere udtalt i vækstmarkedsøkonomierne end i de industrialiserede lande.
Agricultural prices continued to be affected by strong demand from emerging economies, developments in the production of biofuels and poor harvests in some countries.
Stigningen i forbrugerpriserne ekskl. fødevarer
In view of the higher weight of food in their price index, inflationary pressures have been even more pronounced in emerging markets than in industrialised countries.
(Forbrugerpriser, ændring i pct. år/år; månedlige observationer)
(consumer prices; annual percentage changes; monthly data)
DEN GLOBALE VÆKST ER ROBUST MEN PÅ VEJ NED I 2007 aftog den globale økonomiske vækst (uden for euroområdet) en del i forhold til de seneste tre års kraftige højkonjunktur.
GLOBAL GROWTH RESILIENT BUT SLOWING DOWN In 2007 global economic growth (outside the euro area) moderated somewhat from the very buoyant conditions recorded in the previous three years.
Det skyldtes delvis spændingerne på de globale finansielle markeder, der opstod medio 2007, og som overskyggede den økonomiske udvikling overalt i verden, samt en vis modning af den globale industricyklus.
This was partly related to the global financial tensions that surfaced in the middle of 2007 and overshadowed economic developments across the globe, as well as to a certain maturing of the global manufacturing cycle.
Afmatningen på det amerikanske boligmarked havde umiddelbart kun en begrænset afsmittende virkning på andre komponenter i den indenlandske efterspørgsel i USA, der steg kraftigt i 2. og 3. kvartal 2007, mens den økonomiske vækst i USA faldt markant i 4. kvartal.
While the US housing market weakness had only limited immediate spillover effects on other components of US domestic demand, which grew strongly in the second and third quarters of 2007, US economic growth slowed down markedly in the fourth quarter.
De globale eftervirkninger af de svagere økonomiske udsigter i USA var dog ret begrænsede i 2007.
The global repercussions of the weaker economic outlook in the United States, however, remained rather limited in 2007.
I de vigtigste vækstmarkedsøkonomier medførte uroen midlertidigt en tiltagende volatilitet på de finansielle markeder, men de fleste vækstmarkedsøkonomiers modstandsdygtighed over for denne uro så ud til at være stærkere end tidligere.
In major emerging markets, the turmoil led temporarily to a rise in financial market volatility, but the capacity of most emerging markets to withstand this turbulence appeared to be stronger than in the past.
I året som helhed fortsatte den kraftige økonomiske vækst i vækstmarkedsøkonomierne – navnlig i Asien.
Over the year as a whole, the economic expansion in emerging markets proceeded at a fast pace, particularly in emerging Asia.
Samtidig øgedes usikkerheden længere med hensyn til de globale økonomiske udsigter, der knytter sig til en bredt funderet revurdering af risici, mindre gunstige finansieringsforhold, stigende råvarepriser og faldende tillidsindikatorer.
At the same time, uncertainty about the global economic outlook increased, associated with the broad-based reappraisal of risks, tighter financing conditions, the rise in commodity prices and a decline in confidence indicators.
Kilder: Nationale observationer, BIS, Eurostat og ECBs beregninger. 1) For euroområdet og Storbritannien anvendes Eurostats observationer, mens derfor USA og Japan anvendes nationale observationer.
Sources: National data, BIS, Eurostat and ECB calculations.1) Eurostat data are used for the euro area and the United Kingdom; national data are used for the United States and Japan.
BNP-tallene er sæsonkorrigerede. 2) HICP for euroområdet og Storbritannien; CPI for USA og Japan.
GDP figures have been seasonally adjusted.2) HICP for the euro area and the United Kingdom; CPI for the United States and Japan.
Efter en periode med et ret behersket globalt inflationspres foråret indtil september 2007 steg den samlede inflation i de fleste økonomier kraftigt mod udgangen af 2007 (se figur 2).
Following a period of broadly contained global inflationary pressures in the year to September 2007, headline inflation in most economies rose strongly towards the end of 2007 (see Chart 2).
Forbrugerpriserne steg samlet set i OECD-landene til 3,3 pct. i december 2007, hvilket primært kunne tilskrives højere råvarepriser og ugunstige basiseffekter.
In the OECD countries, headline consumer price inflation increased to 3.3% in December 2007. This was mainly attributable to higher commodity prices and unfavourable base effects.
I lyset af stramme markedsforhold steg olieprisen fortsat kraftigt i løbet af 2007.
Amid tight market conditions, oil prices continued to rise strongly in the course of 2007.
Desuden fortsatte priserne på råvarer ekskl. olie med at stige kraftigt i 1. halvår 2007, hvorefter deholdt sig på et højt niveau, selv om de svingede en del.
In addition, non-oil commodity prices continued to increase strongly in the first half of 2007 and subsequently remained rather volatile at elevated levels.
Denne udvikling afspejlede stærkt stigende landbrugspriser, navnlig fødevarepriser, der kun delvis blev opvejet af faldende priser på metal.
These latter developments reflected a strong rise in agricultural prices,
og energi var dog fortsat behersket og lå på 2,1 pct. i december i OECD-landene.
Excluding food and energy, however, consumer price inflation remained contained, standing at 2.1% in December in the OECD countries.
Den årlige ændring i forbrugerprisindekset i USA for 2007 var 2,8 pct. mod 3,2 pct. året før.
In the United States, the annual rate of change in the CPI for 2007 was 2.8%, down from 3.2% the year before.
Stigningen i forbrugerpriserne tiltog i 1. halvår 2007 som følge af markant højere energiprisstigninger og højere lejeværdi af egen bolig.
Consumer price inflation rose in the first half of the year on account of significant increases in energy prices and an acceleration in the owner-equivalent rent component of the CPI.
Efter at have været ret afdæmpet hen over sommeren steg inflationspresset efterfølgende, og år-til-år ændringen i forbrugerprisindekset nåede toppunktet på 4,3 pct. i november.
After being somewhat muted during the summer months, inflationary pressures subsequently increased, with the year-on-year change in the CPI peaking at 4.3% in November.
Denne udvikling kunne navnlig tilskrives kraftige basiseffekter og stigninger i energi- og fødevarepriserne mod årets slutning.
This was in particular attributable to strong base effects and increases in energy and food prices towards the end of the year.
Den årlige inflation ekskl. energi og fødevarer viste også tegn på en fornyet stigning i årets sidste måneder. For 2007 som helhed lå den på 2,3 pct., hvilket var 0,2 procentpoint lavere end for 2006.
The annual rate of inflation excluding energy and food also showed signs of renewed acceleration in the last months of the year.
I USA var den årlige vækst i realt BNP for 2007 som helhed 2,2 pct. og lå således 0,7 procentpoint under væksten i 2006.
In the United States, the annual rate of growth in real GDP for 2007 as a whole was 2.2%, which was 0.7 percentage point below the rate in 2006.