natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Ellers vil den politiske accept af de offentlige foranstaltninger, der er nødvendige for realiseringen af det interne marked, bringes i fare af de forskellige økonomiske kredse og samfundsgrupper.
From the economic policy angle it is not just a question of the fall in the export of capital goods from the Community to oil-producing countries as a result of the latter's deteriorating balance-of-payments; just as important are the effects on the Community's efforts to keep indigenous energy sources competitive.
En accept af det interne markeds samlede kompleks kan opnås, såfremt der kompenseres for de negative effekter, som den principielt markedsstyrede strukturomlægningsproces har for enkelte grupper. Finansieringen af disse kompensationer lettes af, at det nationaløkonomiske output samtidig øges som følge af realiseringen af det interne marked.
The development of new technologies for tapping energy sources is particularly important here, not only in the context of international competition but also as regards the consequences for the general development of new technologies, which plays a leading role in the Community's research and industrial policies.
Kommissionen opfordres til
These reports
Udsigterne på kort og mellemlang sigt fra energisektoren.
Short- and mediumterm outlook
Udsigterne på kort sigt
The short-term outlook
Især på grund af faldet i oliepriserne er udsigterne til at øge væksten og beskæftigelsen, dæmme op for inflationen og opnå ligevægt på betalingsbalancens løbende poster blevet forbedret for næsten alle EF's medlemsstater.
The effects on exports are more difficult to assess. The Community countries' international competitiveness is weakened in principle by the drop in the value of the dollar.
Faldet i dollarkursen har også til dels en positiv effekt i denne henseende, selv om der også er negative virkninger.
On the other hand, however, they too will be able to profit from the strengthening of world trade which the fall in oil prices and the dollar is likely to bring about.
På grund af markedsmekanismerne slår virkningerne næsten automatisk ¡gennem på kort sigt.
The trade balances of many oil-importing developing countries - some of which are highly indebted - are improving considerably, and these countries will now import more.
Men de nye rammebetingelser forbedrer også chancerne for, at man kan øge væksten og beskæftigelsen endnu kraftigere gennem økonomiskpolitiske foranstaltninger uden indgreb.
At the other end of the scale are those countries - some of which are also highly indebted -which export oil and which are being plunged into even greater difficulties by their loss of revenue.
Vanskeligere er det at vurdere virkningerne på eksporten.
However, international organizations and international cooperation will probably stop these countries from going bankrupt.
Faldet i dollarkursen har tendens til at skade EF-landenes internationale konkurrenceevne.
Thus developing countries, too, will on balance benefit from the fall in oil prices and the dollar.
Men på den anden side kan EF-landene også drage fordel af en øget verdenshandel, som kunne blive resultatet af de faldende oliepriser og faldet i dollarkursen.
The fall in oil prices in particular will improve the prospects of almost all Member States for boosting growth and employment, curbing inflation and balancing current accounts.
Mange olieimporterende udviklingslande - nogle endog dybt forgældede - oplever en tydelig forbedring af deres handelsbalancer. De vil øge deres import.
The drop in the value of the dollar will also help here to some extent, though there will likewise be some negative feedback.
Faldet i oliepriserne og dollarkursen bevirker for det første, at bytteforholdet i EF forbedres væsentligt.
One of the effects is that the Community's terms of trade will improve appreciably.
Faldende importpriser medvirker til en lavere vækst i forbrugerpriserne, dvs. til øget købekraft, og skulle samtidig øge virksomhedernes indtjening.
Lower import prices help to curb the rise in consumer prices and increase purchasing power and are also likely to boost corporate profits.
Dette betyder altså, at det private forbrug og erhvervsinvesteringerne kan udvikle sig kraftigere.
Private consumption and corporate investment will therefore be able to expand more vigorously.
Den klare forbedring af bytteforholdet har derudover en positiv virkning på de fleste EF-landes handels- og betalingsbalancer.
The marked improvement in the terms of trade will also have a favourable impact on most Community countries' trade balances and balances on current account.
Den samlede virkning af den her skildrede udvikling vil ifølge EF-Kommissionens beregninger føre til, at væksten i EF skulle stige til 2,7%, og at stigningen i forbrugerpriserne fortsat skulle holde sig inden for ca. 3,5%.
According to the Commission's calculations, this trend will push growth in the Community up to 2.7% and ensure that consumer prices do not rise by more than 3.5%.
Det er endog muligt, at væksten bliver endnu kraftigere.
It is quite possible that the growth rate will even be somewhat higher.
P.g.a. de enkelte landes forskellige eksportstruktur får de forskelligt udbytte af faldet i oliepriserne og i dollar kursen.
Because of the differences in the pattern of their exports the Member States will benefit to a differing degree from the fall in oil prices and the dollar.
Prisstabiliteten øges i alle landene, men ikke alle vil få en højere vækst end i 1985.
Price stability is on the increase in all countries, but not all of them will improve on their 1985 growth rates.
Væksten i EF vil især være båret af den indenlandske efterspørgsel. Det gælder også, fordi de omtalte forbedringer i nogle lande kan udnyttes til at styrke den offentlige efterspørgsel.
Growth in the Community will be sustained in particular by domestic demand, on top of which the relief brought about by the fall in oil prices and the dollar can be used to boost public sector demand.
Den kraftigere interne efterspørgsel vil også medføre, at EF's import tiltager kraftigt, især da USA's konkurrenceevne er steget.
Community imports will also increase sharply if demand within the Community is firmer, especially as the competitiveness of the USA has improved.
Via sin import bidrager EF til at styrke verdenshandelen og skaffer tillige udviklingslandene øgede valutaindtægter.
Community imports will help to strengthen world trade and enable developing countries to build up their foreign currency revenue.
Da det er lykkedes at stabilisere prisniveauet, skulle det i det mindste i nogle medlemsstater være muligt at lade inflationsbekæmpelsespolitikken træde i baggrunden og at prioritere beskæftigelsesmålene højere.
The success in stabilizing prices should allow antiinflationary policy to take a backseat in some Member States at least and thus make it possible to give greater weight to employment.
I den forbindelse er det nyttigt, at den offentlige sektor i de fleste medlemsstater nyder godt af stigende skatteindtægter, fremkaldt af den økonomiske vækst, og mere stabile priser, således at en mere energisk indsats til fremme af miljøbeskyttelse, infrastrukturer, strukturomlægninger i erhvervslivet og på arbejdsmarkedet kan finansieres.
Furthermore, the public sector in most of the EEC countries is benefiting from growthrelated higher tax revenues and stable prices, with the result that more money can be spent on environmental protection, infrastructure and the restructuring of the economy and the labour market.
Hvad angår provenuet fra merværdiafgiften og virksomhedernes skatter, tvivler nogle medlemmer dog på, at denne virkning slår ¡gennem allerede i 1986.
Some members, looking at VAT receipts and corporation taxes, doubted whether this effect would be felt in 1986.
Andre gør opmærksom på de særlige konkurrence- og strukturproblemer, der er opstået i landbrugssektoren p.g.a. dollar kursen samt de dermed forbundne byrder for de offentlige budgetter.
Others referred to the specific competitive and structural problems of agriculture caused by the fall in the dollar and the consequent burden on public finances.
Dollarkursens fald har bevirket, at verdensmarkedspriserne for landbrugsprodukter i ECU er faldet betydeligt.
The fall in the value of the dollar has brought about a considerable drop in the world market prices of agricultural products in ECU.
Resultatet er betydelige konkurrence, eksport- og overskudsproblemer i EF's landbrugssektor, hvilket belaster EF-budgettet yderligere.
This has led to major competitive, export and surplus problems for the Community farming sector and is an additional burden on its budget.
Da man så småt begynder at tage hensyn til disse problemer i EF's landbrugsprispolitik, overvejes det i nogle lande at iværksætte specifikke foranstaltninger til støtte for landbrugssektoren i forbindelse med ændringer i vekselkurserne i EMS.
The CAP is making a cautious start on tackling these problems and some Member States are also considering specific measures to support agriculture, including a connection with the EMS exchange rate realignment.
Sådanne foranstaltninger, som oftest i form af subventioner, er i modstrid med det fælles markeds principper, og har negative virkninger for udbygningen af EF.
Such measures, generally subsidies, go against the principle of a common market and would adversely affect the development of the EEC.
Overskudsproblemet må snarere løses gennem fælles strukturindgreb på landbrugsmarkedet. markedet.
It would be better to solve the problem of surpluses by joint measures to restructure the agricultural market.
En forbedring af udsigterne for 1986 vil dog på ingen måde betyde, at nødvendigheden af en mellemfristet samarbejdsstrategi bliver mindre. Selv om ikke alle EF-
Even though not all Community countries have been affected to the same extent by the fall in the dollar, the international competitiveness of the Community as a whole has been weakened.
Situationen i Storbritannien og Nederlandene må dog anskues på en mere differentieret måde.
The situation in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands is more complicated.
I og med at de er energieksporterende lande, må de notere indtægtstab både på betalingsbalancens løbende poster og på de offentlige budgetter p.g.a. de faldende oliepriser. Nederlandene vil dog alligevel bevare et overskud på betalingsbalancen.
As energy exporting countries they have to put up with losses of current account and budgetary revenue as a result of the drop in oil prices. The Netherlands will nonetheless still have a surplus on current account.
Faldet i dollarkursen betyder dog også for Storbritannien og Nederlandene, at bytteforholdet forbedres.
Moreover, purchasing power in the private sector - with the exception of the energy industry - will increase in real terms in both countries, as it will also increase in all other countries.
I øvrigt øges i disse to lande, som i de øvrige lande, den private sektors reale købekraft - bortset
Demand in the Community as a whole will probably be strengthened considerably, for falling interest rates will boost the trend to make use of the extra purchasing power.
(De behandles nærmere nedenfor).
THE MID-1986 ECONOMIC SITUATION
I EF som helhed har vækstraterne siden 1982 været positive.
Growth in the Community as a whole has been rising since 1982.
De er steget kontinuerligt, men har dog hele tiden været relativt lave.
But though it has been rising all the time, it has remained relatively weak.
De enkelte lande er på forskellig måde kommet med i opsvinget.
The start of the economic recovery has varied from country to country.
Først i 1984 havde praktisk taget alle EF's 10 medlemsstater positive vækstrater.
It was not until 1984 that virtually all EC countries recorded positive growth rates.
I 1985 nærmede vækstraterne sig hinanden, men i 1986 vil de atter falde mere forskelligt ud.
These rates moved closer together in 1985, but will move slightly apart again this year.
De fleste lande vil i 1986 befinde sig i det fjerde opsvingsår.
Most countries are now in the fourth year of their economic recovery.
Det er derfor forståeligt, at man nu igen stiller det spørgsmål, hvor længe dette opsving kan vare.
It is therefore understandable that people are already asking how much longer this recovery can last.
Udsigterne på mellemlang sigt
The mediumterm outlook
Væksten i produktionspotentiellet øges, når investe ringskvoten og/eller kapitalproduktiviteten stiger.
Productive potential will grow further if there is an increase in the investment ratio and/or capital productivity.
Af særlig betydning for produktionspotentiellets udvikling er investeringer i maskiner og udstyr, erhvervsbyggeri samt offentlige infrastrukturinvesteringer.
Investment in capital goods, in industrial and commercial building and in public infrastructure is particularly important for the growth of productive potential.
Den private investeringskvote i EF har været stigende i nogen tid.
The share of private investment in the Community has been on the increase for some time, while the prospects for public infrastructure investment have also improved in the meantime, as we have explained above.
I mellemtiden er der som tidligere anført opstået bedre udsigter for udviklingen i de offentlige infrastrukturinvesteringer.
More investment in new capacity is especially desirable, for it creates new jobs. The greater utilization of capacity referred to above leads almost automatically to additional investment, especially in new capacity.
Særlig ønskværdig er en stigning i de såkaldte udvidelsesinvesteringer; de skaber nye arbejdspladser.
This does not mean of course that this investment would not reflect the state of the art and would not result in rationalization.
Efterhånden som kapaciteten udnyttes, jf. ovenfor, sker det næsten automatisk, at nye investe ringer navnlig tager form af udvidelsesinvesteringer.
The present upturn has a fair chance of continuing for some time yet, especially now that oil prices and the dollar are falling, for a decline in inflation and greater price stability are the best guarantees that the economy will continue on its upward path.
Det betyder naturligvis ikke, at de ikke lever op til den seneste tekniske udvikling og ikke har nogen rationaliseringseffekt.
In other words, downturns are largely due to accelerating price increases and the restrictive monetary and/or fiscal measures taken as a result.
Derimod er de kendetegnet ved, at en udvidelse af produktionsmulighederne udgør et motiv på linje med rationalisering.
If this problem can be kept under control, a downturn would not seem to be likely in the short term. The cooperative growth strategy is a suitable approach for tackling this problem.
Chancerne for, at det nuværende opsving kan vare ved i længere tid, er ikke dårlige.
Greater investment in the Community is likely to help create new jobs.
De er blevet større, ikke mindst på grund af den netop omtalte udvikling i oliepriserne og dollarkursen.
On the other hand, at times of crisis (i.e. when capacity is vastly under-utilized) it is obvious that investment will be focussed on rationalization.
Den faldende inflation og den opnåede prisstabilitet er nemlig de bedste forudsætninger for et fortsat opsving.
However, it cannot be disputed that investments in rationalization also bring some benefits in terms of employment.
Med andre ord, erfaringen viser, at konjunkturnedgange især forårsages af accelererende prisstigninger og af de restriktive penge- og skattepolitiske foranstaltninger, der iværksættes som svar herpå.
Even though such investment make sections of the workforce redundant, they provide jobs in the firms producing the capital goods and they also ensure that firms remain competitive and retain their export markets, thereby safeguarding the jobs of the rest of the productive workforce.
Hvis dette problem kan holdes under kontrol, forekommer det ikke sandsynligt, at der på kort sigt vil indtræde en konjunkturafmatning.
However, investments in rationalization definitely cause problems where productivity makes rapid advances and puts too much of a strain on the structural adaptability of the workforce and the production process.
Samarbejdsvækststrategien er egnet til at løse dette problem.
Ways and means of adapting to this must be found through dialogue between the two sides of industry.
At opsvinget kan fortsætte nogen tid endnu, betyder dog ikke, at der er udsigt til, at vækstraterne i EF kan stige ubegrænset.
Saying that the upturn may continue does not mean, however, that there is a prospect of growth continuing to rise indefinitely in the Community.
Man må betænke, at nogle lande i EF navnlig på det industrielle område gennemsnitligt allerede er oppe på fuld udnyttelse af deres produktionskapacitet.
It should be noted that in some of the countries of the Community industry in particular is already operating at average capacity.
Med den sandsynlige vækst i 1986 vil man mange steder nå op på en endog meget høj kapacitetsudnyttelse.
If the growth rate predicted for 1986 is achieved, capacity utilization may well reach a very high level in some areas.
Kapaciteten kan ganske vist udvides ved hjælp af øgede investeringer; men en sådan proces gennemføres kun gradvist.
Capacity can be expanded by increasing investment, but not quickly.
En ¡nvesteringsvækstrate på 6,6%, således som Kommissionen forudser det inden for rammerne af samarbejdsvækststrategien, bidrager kun i ringe grad til at øge væksten i produktionspotentiellet.
A 6.6% growth rate for investment, as planned by the Commission in its cooperative growth strategy, will speed up the growth of productive capacity only slightly.
Det er ganske vist også rigtigt, at væksten ikke nødvendigvis skal ske alene via den industrielle sektor, men den er dog stærkt afhængig af den.
Although growth does not have to be generated solely by industry, it is closely linked to this sector.
Øgede investeringer i Fællesskabet burde i fremtiden bidrage til skabelse af nye arbejdspladser.
The growth in productive potential can also be boosted by increasing capital productivity.
På den anden side er det meget nærliggende, at der i en krisesituation, dvs. i forbindelse med udpræget kapacitetsunderudnyttelse, navnlig foretages rationaliseringsinvesteringer. Man skal dog ikke frakende rationaliseringsinvesteringeme visse positive virkninger for arbejdstagerne.
This variable, by analogy with labour productivity, measures production in relation to one particular factor, in this case capital stock.
I sådanne tilfælde må der tidligt gennem forhandlinger mellem arbejdsmarkedets parter findes tilpasningsmuligheder.
This can also result from the use of more labour per fixed capital stock.
I fremtiden bør der i større omfang end tidligere foretages en vurdering af følgerne af de tekniske fremskridt, inden de indføres.
Nevertheless, this presupposes that the ratio of labour to capital can be changed in the production process though, once an investment has been made, this ratio is mostly fixed.
Landbrugssektoren lider allerede nu under overproduktion, så i denne sektor bør enhver tilskyndelse til udvidelse af produktionspotentiellet undgås.
Agriculture is already suffering from surplus production, so that no incentives must be offered to expand production capacity.
Beskæftigelsen i tjenesteydelsessektoren er også steget klart.
Employment in the service sector has also increased considerably in the past.
En yderligere stigning afhænger af forbrugernes generelle indkomstudvikling, som netop i henhold til samarbejdsvækststrategien ikke skal forceres.
Further expansion depends on the general trend in consumer incomes, but this is not to be accelerated as part of the cooperative strategy.
Kun byggesektoren har stadig stærkt uudnyttet kapacitet.
Only the building sector is working well below capacity.
Den kan og bør udnyttes ved hjælp af øgede offentlige og private investe
This spare capacity can and should be used by increasing public and private investment.
Væksten i produktionskapaciteten kan også øges gennem stigende kapitalproduktivitet.
Generally, it is to be assumed that even if there is no fallingoff in growth it will have to adjust gradually in the course of 1987 to the mediumterm trend in productive potential.
Denne størrelse måler analogt med arbejdsproduktiviteten produktionen i forhold til den ene faktor, her kapitalen.
Even if the preconditions for the cooperative strategy are met in full, it is to be feared that the growth rate will be well below the 3.5% which the Commission is aiming for.
Dermed være ikke påstået, at kun én faktor - enten arbejde eller kapital - er produktiv.
Other measures for reducing unemployment should therefore be looked into; these measures will be dealt with in greater detail below.
Stigende kapitalproduktivitet betyder, at der pr. kapitalenhed kan fremstilles en større produktionsmængde.
If capital productivity falls - as it did in the Community for a long period - this is due, according to the neoclassical theory, to real wages rising too quickly.
Dette kan også skyldes, at indsatsen af
As a result special efforts are made to rationalize (in order to
DEN ØKONOMISKE SITUATION
Capital productivity falls as a result.
Elementer i samarbejdsvækststrategien vækststrategien arbejdskraft øges ved uændret kapital.
It is against the background of this theory that we should view the Commission's recommendation that a further drop in capital productivity should be avoided by moderating the growth of real wages.
Det forudsætter dog, at forholdet mellem anvendt arbejdskraft og kapital i produktionsprocessen kan ændres. Når en investering er foretaget, ligger dette forhold normalt fast.
It has recently been in fashion to refer to the similar case of the USA, where real wages have risen only very moderately (and have even fallen intermittently) and capital productivity has hardly fallen (and has even risen intermittently).
Når kapitalproduktiviteten falder - således som det længe har været tilfældet i EF - så skyldes det ¡følge den neoklassiske skole en for hurtig udvikling i reallønnen.
If current accounts within the Community were more balanced it would be possible to curb protectionism, in the industrial sector at least, since agriculture is already strongly protected against the rest of the world and is not free from distortions of competition even within the EEC.
Dette medfører særlige rationaliseringsbestræbelser med henblik på at erstatte den relativt dyre faktor arbejde og dermed til en uforholdsmæssig stor stigning i kapitalintensiteten, uden at produktionen følger med i samme grad.
It is in the Community's interest to keep its own export markets as open as possible and thereby safeguard its export trade by making a contribution of its own towards trade liberalization in the forthcoming round of GATT negotiations.
Resultatet er faldende kapitalproduktivitet.
More balanced current accounts within the EEC would facilitate such an approach.
Det er ikke overraskende, at de lande, der har underskud på betalingsbalancen, samtidig har den højeste inflation.
However, this is an inadmissible simplification of the causes and effects.
Selv om omkostningsog prisudviklingen i fremtiden skulle nærme sig hinanden i de forskellige lande, vil de eksisterende uligevægte ikke være fjernet; man vil kun have undgået at øge de allerede bestående divergenser.
Firstly, there are various other reasons for the fall in capital productivity, e.g. the spending of more capital on replacing energy sources which have risen sharply in price, and increased spending on environmental protection as part of production processes.
Det er på denne teoretiske baggrund, man skal se EF-Kommissionens henstilling om gennem moderate reallønsstigninger at forhindre et yderligere fald i kapital produktiviteten.
It is also doubtful whether wage moderation alone will lead to the use of less capital-intensive production processes.
Den i den sidste tid meget benyttede henvisning til USA, hvor reallønnen kun steg beskedent, somme tider endog faldt, og kapitalproduktiviteten kun faldt meget lidt, undertiden endog steg, peger i samme retning.
Identical technology is used in countries with vastly different wage levels to produce the same goods.