natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Den gunstigere udvikling i de relative lønomkostninger i USA siden 1970 og en vis genopbygning af de amerikanske pro dukters konkurrencevne kan forklare den seneste bremsning i denne omstilling« ').
Certainly, economic slowdown has damped demand, and consequently prices, but the respite granted by the OPEC countries, and particularly by Saudi Arabia, so as not to aggravate the international depression, could not have lasted whilst the surpluses of the petroleum countries were diminishing year by year, and when a deficit was forecast from 1980 onwards (see 2.4.
EØF synes således at være meget mindre fri af de truede produktioner end USA og Japan.
The international monetary disorder.)
En anden måde at måle graden af et lands engagement i en bestemt type aktiviteter på er at vurdere dette engagement med udgangspunkt i 2 hovedfaktortal for såvel de »truede« som for de »avancerede« produkter:
Everything now is happening as if the West hoped to live with expensive energy in the manner that it enjoyed when energy was abundant and cheap.
For hvert af de 8 største industrilande i OECD svinger dette faktortal omkring et gennemsnit af de 8 landes samlede eksport eller import af de pågældende produkter.
In the United States, more than anywhere else, it has been as if the crisis did not exist, yet the per capita consumption of energy there is twice as high as in Europe.
Følgende skema, som giver et overblik over visse af »mellemregningerne« i de citerede undersøgelser, beskriver udviklingen kvalitativt for de 8 pågældende lande i tiden 1963-1976 med hensyn til den relative specialisering i eksporten og den relative åbning for import såvel for de truede som for de avancerede produkter.
The 'Independence' project has been pigeon-holed and the Carter plan is encountering difficulties. The United States imports twice as much oil as in 1974, and helped to increase world prices by granting a subsidy of USD 5 per imported barrel at the very moment when prices were rocketing in June 1979.
Der skelnes mellem 5 niveauer af relativ specialisering eller åbning:
The security of our supplies is no longer guaranteed, so serious are world geopolitical un certainties.
Kriserne: Årsager og konsekvenser — Hvad står på spil for Europa ?
The energy disarray: Import dependence and price hikes
Relativt faktortal under 0,6 Relativt faktortal mellem 0,6 og 0,9.
But price hikes must be sufficiently progressive so that the economies of the industrialized countries can adapt.
Relativt faktortal mellem 0,9 og 1,1.
Sudden price increases hit hard.
Relativt faktortal mellem 1,1 og 1,4. Relativt faktortal over 1,4.
But we can no longer refuse to accept the fact that for the next two or three decades we will find ourselves in an era of increasingly expensive energy.
Meget ringe Ringe Middel Stærk Meget stærk
The technological prospects of meeting the challenge
Specialisering og åbning: den relative udvikling i de vigtigste industrilande— 1963­1976
If only to avoid the forecasting errors of the past, we must explore the possible scenarios of major price increases, which may be sudden or progressive, and draw from these the major implications for current account balances, consumption, and behaviour.
meget stærk, M = middel, R = ringe,
Markets and postponed disorder1
Tegnforklaring: S = stærk, MS ­ MR = meget ringe.
Price fluctuations in raw materials, whether mineral or agricultural, are considerable.
Skemaet kræver et par forklarende bemærkninger:
The recent history of silver or sugar prices confirms this point.
Italiens situation »forekommer foruroligende, eftersom dets valuta er stærkt knyttet til de øvrige valutaer i EF inden for EMS.
It may be groups of producers attempting to dictate conditions, as in the case of petroleum, or of institutions having sufficient power to control the cycles (in the case of tin).
Kun to lande, Frankrig og Japan, har haft denne gunstige udvikling. ling.
This results in a quasipermanent state of imbalance.
Den bemærkelsesværdige formindskelse af Japans sårbarhed (det eksporterer stadig færre truede produkter og er blevet meget åbent over for denne type import) kan ikke skjule, at landet fortsat er storimportør af avancerede produkter, men kun eksporterer ret få (»udstyr og maskiner«).
1 Whilst producers' cartels can be counted on the fingers of one hand the number of producers' clubs, and the number of members of each club, constantly increase. 2See Futuribles No 20 February 1979 'Les matières minérales: vers quelle crise?'
— Storbritanniens sårbarhed er trods en klar relativ økonomisk til bagegang ikke blevet større.
Rises in prices can lead sellers to reduce the quantities offered, in the hope of selling more at even higher market prices, whilst the buyers hasten to build up their stocks.
Landet har tværtimod placeret sig som storeksportør af avancerede produkter.
Price reductions can lead consumers willingly to exhaust their stocks, since their new supplies are ensured at a lower cost.
Det engelske punds daværende svage stilling er sikkert en del af forklaringen, men i
By contrast, producers, mainly in the case of agricultural products, may be tempted to sell as much as possible before prices have fallen too far.
De største industrilandes såbarhed overfor konkurrence fra udviklingslandene
Another factor making for instability in the markets results from the contrast between the producer's ability (subject to finance), to cut or store his production, and the consumer's inability to cut consumption except where substitution by another raw material is easy to carry out rapidly.
Største relative sårbarhed
Reserves and resources: adequate, extendable but badly distributed capital
KiWtv FAST øvrigt har Storbritannien på samme tid øget sin specialisering i eksporten af truede produkter.
Some 40% of global reserves lie in the industrialized countries, with fourfifths in the United States, Canada, Australia and South Africa.
Ganske vist har landet både intensiveret sin relative eksport og import af avancerede produkter, men det skyldes forarbejdningsaktiviteter (varer importeres for at blive re-eksporteret).
Relative to the growth in consumption, these proved reserves are generally sufficient: the ratio of proven reserves to existing consumption is largely greater than in the case of petroleum, except in the case of bismuth, mercury, silver and asbestos.
— Tysklands sårbarhed er tilsyneladende øget lidt, men ændringen er ikke tilstrækkelig udpræget til at være betydningsfuld.
Research companies have not pressed on with their prospecting and research when reserves are felt to be sufficient, and when they have been found in the in dustrialized countries.
For at forstå disse tilsyneladende uregelmæssigheder må man gå ud over begrebet sårbarhed overfor konkurrence og se på rentabiliteten i forbindelse med de bærende markeder.
Nor does the consumption of metals result in their destruction: a large number of them are recyclable, although a large part is permanently lost by corrosion, oxidation or by alloying.
Det vil sige udviklingen i efterspørgslen.
Excluding energy products.
Verdensefterspørgslen (summen af de enkelte landes forbrug) må ikke forveksles med den internationale efterspørgsel (samhandelen).
Whatever the reserves, the real prices of minerals may well increase for several reasons.
Hvis man kun tager hensyn til samhandelen for at måle specialiseringen, kan det let føre til forkerte konklusioner.
Production costs tend to increase, despite technological improvements, as the most profitable deposits were the first to be used.
»Forsøget på at finde de mest rentable aktivitetsområder er en dynamisk forvaltningsmetode, som virksomhedsledere normalt anvender.
The treatment of low grade minerals requires increasing amounts of energy, and the cost of other inputs such as plant, energy and labour are all rising.
Det drejer sig om at finde den fase, hvor et givet pro dukt er i kraftig vækst, for at man kan producere det på det rigtige tidspunkt — inden markedet oversvømmes af alle de andre producenter.
The same applies to the cost of ancillary services such as transport and insurance.
På det plan opfører produkterne sig som levende væsener, der fødes, vokser, for derefter at gå tilbage, inden de forsvinder . . .
It also seems that mining investments are currently insufficient.
Stigningen i efterspørgslen er meget ujævn fra det ene produkt til det andet.
Furthermore the mining profits are being cut by the growth of production costs, and the often prohibitive character of the political risks in a large number of LDC leads Western firms to pull back to less profitable but safer zones.
Det er indlysende, at et land, hvis produktionsapparat har været styret i retning af at tilfredsstille verdensefterspørgslen, er i en gunstigere stilling end det, som forsøger at eksportere de varer, der er mindst efterspurgt« ').
On top of these underlying factors, there is often a concentration of supply in few countries, particularly South Africa and Zimbabwe, which permanently threatens the continuity of supplies.
Man kan se dette ved at opdele produkterne i grupper på grundlag af, hvor hurtigt efterspørgslen efter dem stiger.
Mining activity is also concentrated in the hands of a few companies, often North American. What is good for them is not necessarily good for the consumer.
CEPII har inddelt 54 kategorier i 6 klasser af samme numeriske størrelse:
Nevertheless, the industrialized countries and their mining companies do have technological weapons, which allow them to fix a de facto price ceiling for certain minerals.
— De stærkt progressive kategorier (efterspørgslen stiger mindst 9,5% om året. Den mest dynamiske er kategorien FO (kontormaskiner og datamaskiner).
PUK,1involves the production of aluminia from clay instead of bauxite.
Her stiger efterspørgslen 13,4%.
In short, the limits which they impose on the rising trend of prices are more theoretical than real.
— Middel progressive kategorier (efterspørgslen stiger mellem 7,9% og 9,4%).
The absence of organization of the market, as indicated above, also helps to amplify and maintain market volatility.
— Svagt progressive kategorier (stigningen er mellem 6,8% og 7,8%).
In conclusion the rise in prices of non-energy raw materials may be in evitable, but it will have consequences at a global level which are much less marked than in the case of petroleum.
— Svagt regressive kategorier (stigningen er mellem 4,8% og 6,7%).
Furthermore, there is likely to be physical shortage in only three or four cases.
— Middel regressive kategorier (stigningen er mellem 4,0% og 4,7%).
Pechiney-Ugine-Kuhlman. a French transnational chemical firm.
— Stærkt regressive kategorier (stigningen er mindre end 4,0%), hvor den mindst dynamiske kategori er DD (skind og pelsværk) — efterspørgslen er faldet 0,3%.
A study by the Economic and Social Council of the UN (Committee on Natural Resources, Geneva, 20 May 1977) showed that there were a minimum of fifty ex ploitable sites which could supply, from 1985 onwards, up to 15% of the world market for nickel, 17% of the manganese and 53% of the cobalt.
') CEPII-undersøgelsen, op. cit.
However certain experts es timate that the exploitation of such sites could not for various reasons, take place for several decades.
Kriserne: Årsager og konsekvenser — Hvad står på spil for Europa?
The crises: The origins, consequences and challenges for Europe pected in these markets will be cyclical, or will arise in the semifinished products markets when coverting capacities do not keep step with de mand (as in the case of titanium sponge).
Kategorien »beklædning« fremstår som dynamisk i forbindelse med den internationale han del, fordi en lang række udviklede lande har opgivet denne pro duktion, og markedet i disse lande forsynes i stigende grad af importerede beklædningsvarer.
Basic foods such as cereals, tropical beverages, oils and stock-raising products, and industrial raw materials like rubber, timber and hard fibres, account for about 17% of international trade though 60% is exported by the industrialized regions.
Omvendt fremstår »landbrugsmateriel« som en meget lidt dynamisk kategori, fordi mange udviklingslande bygger fabrikker for at tilfredsstille den indenlandske efterspørgsel og erstatte importen med en national produktion.
The MIC are totally dependent on imports for tropical beverages, rubber and certain oils but the reality of the ' force relationships' on these markets are mainly working in their favour.
Skema I — Retrospektiv skala for de industrier, hvis beliggenhed kan vælgesfrit.
Another characteristic of the market in agricultural raw materials is, however, more worrying.
Stigning (i mængde) i den samlede indenlandske efterspørgsel i verden.
A fairly stable demand is faced by highly ir regular supply, with price movements which are sometimes spectacular.
(42) KE Frugt­oggronsagskonserves (20) EA Udsavet og behandl, træ .
For them, the commodity boom simply demonstrated the contradictions in the world food system.
(27) ED Trykkeri­vig forlagsvirksomhed (2) IT Motorcykler, cykler (29_BAR_ (( Sloberivirksomhcd
The world will therefore experience, during the 1980s, a food shortage which will inevitably result in more serious market disorders.
11 (261 FR Elektr. app. og dele 12 (22) GF Medicinalvarer 13 (15) FC Motorer, turbiner, pumper . ...
The FAO in its report 'The world situation for food and agriculture' in July 1975 indicated that the net deficit in cereals of the Third World was likely to reach 85 million tonnes in 1985, and by 1980 these pessimistic forecasts had been largely confirmed.
14 _BAR_3) KM Elektronik til det brede publikum .
Agricultural production is also the motive power behind a powerful and organized in dustrial sector comprising fertilizers, veterinary products, plant protection products and agricultural machinery.
15 (40) FE Værktøjsmaskiner 16 _BAR_I9_BAR_ FP Härde hvidevarer Γ (161 FA Kedler, tanke 18 (28) GD Malervarer, farvestoffer
The principal actors in this market are employing the means which they have available to extract the best advantage from the world food situation.
(36) KWKIv 14) EB Mobler 143) H Jernbanemateriel 1341 Kl Tobaksvarer
The United States is the leading cereals exporter.
(45) KG Krydderier, diverse næringsmidler (ikke unfort andetsi.) (54) KD Landbrugsmateriel (25) GI Bildæk og gummivarer (47) IC'* Raffineret olie og brændstoffer . . (52) GB Gødningsstoffer, prod, til landbru­get
This assistance consists in directing cereal surpluses to very poor countries under the food aid programme and also in transfers of technology.
1101 FV* Skibe (21) Kl Måle­ og præcisionsinstrumcntcr
The United States thus contributes towards improving the food situation of the Third World, but at the cost of placing the beneficiary countries in a situation of political and technical dependence.
(48) GE Toiletartikler, rengøringsmidler (53) KK Sukker, konfiture (44) DA Spinderi­og væverivirksomhed (51) KD Kod­oc fiskekonserv (9_BAR_ DE Fodtøj III DB Beklædning, konfektion (49) KA Forarbejd, komprod.
The replacement of a system of multiple crops by single crops propagates the model of Western consumption, which is not necessarily suited to local economies.
1501 KB Animalske og vegetabilske fedt­stoffer IISI DD Skind og læder, pelsværk .
Further more it secures 'agri-business' markets for American fertilizers, pumps and agricultural machinery.
7.0 6.9 6.8 a: Nummerorden. h Klassificering efter verdenshandelen c. Kategoriens kode il Kategoriens indhold e: Sugning ι mængde " Produkter, som kræver megen kapital og avanceret teknologi.
Massive research and dissemination programmes continue under the auspices of both the State institutes and laboratories, and the major agri-businesses, which include the oil and chemical companies and the banks.
Analysen af rentabiliteten af efterspørgslen er et nødvendigt supplement til analysen af sårbarheden med hensyn til udbudet
The LDC, in the throes of the 'green revolution', will attempt to es tablish balanced solutions which link technological progress, as plant varieties, fertilizers, pesticides and equipment, to local social and economic conditions.
De mest progressive produkter er ofte dem, hvis fremstillingsproces er meget kompliceret, og som både kræver store investeringer og højt kvalificeret arbejdskraft.
Some countries, particularly in Asia,1have obtained notable results as a result of cheap credit, training and the diversification of rural activities into cottage industries.
Der er dog langt fra fuldstændig overensstemmelse mellem udbud og efterspørgsel: for eksempel er de 10 produktkategorier i skemaet, der kræver såvel megen kapital som avanceret teknologi, mærket med en *, og det fremgår, at kun 4 af dem optræder i første gruppe (stærkt progressive produkter), mens 3 figurerer i den fjerde og den femte gruppe (svagt eller middel regressive produkter).
However, in the majority of cases, improvements in the structure of land ownership and in come distribution, have moved too slowly for sufficient gains in production to be expected, despite increasing support from the international community.
Hvad står på spil for Europa?
High stakes for Europe; the technological prospects
Sætter man, at specialiseringen nødvendigvis må være skæv, vil der være lande, der bliver relative vindere, andre relative tabere.
The EEC is dependent on countries out side for 75% of its supplies of basic materials, as against 90% for Japan but only 15% for North America: Europe loses and the United States gains from maintaining this status quo.
Her kommer så spørgsmålet om internationaliseringen af produktionen og den uophørlige kamp om udenlandske markeder, som synes at være en stadig mere nødvendig forudsætning for, at det vestlige produktionssystem kan fungere. Dette vil blive behandlet senere.
Basic materials supply, however, will continue to be settled at an international level.
Samlet forekommer EF-landene ved analysen af udenrigshandelen at være mere sårbare over for konkurrence fra udviklingslandene end USA.
The concentration of the supply and the desire of producer States to preempt a larger share of economic power is not sufficient to support the thesis that new OPECs for raw materials will be created. In practice, no other basic material is comparable to petroleum.
Desuden ser de ud til, i modsætning til USA og Japan, at have specialiseret sig i mindre progressive aktiviteter med hensyn til verdensefterspørgslen.
OPEC accounts for 80% of world oil exports, its principal members have large financial reserves to bolster the cartel, and their product cannot be replaced in the short term. Consumer stocks of oil are also small.
Gennemsnittet dækker over store og ofte voksende forskelle mellem på den ene side Tyskland og Holland, på den anden Storbritannien og Italien.
South Korea has succeeded in establishing a permanent positive balance in its food supplies, due to a policy of supporting the price of rice.
Kriserne: Årsager og konsekvenser — Hvad står på spil for Europa ?
Full employment and productivity: More jobs are saved with the new technologies
95 være dårligst i stand til at påvirke udviklingen i den internationale arbejdsdeling på lang sigt«. Med andre ord: de svageste lande skal gøre de stærkeste anstrengelser for at omstille sig samtidig med, at netop de er dårligst egnet til at kunne det.
73 at a global level. Nevertheless, the insufficiency of mining efforts and the rise in production costs leads us to expect an increase in cost of mineral raw materials, limited in only a few cases by the cost of substitutes.
Hvis man ser på de teknologisk mest avancerede industrier, som normalt er stærkt kapitalkrævende, løber de vestlige industrilande en risiko for at forværre den strukturbetingede arbejdsløshed.
The most important problem in the commodity markets is thus not so much rising prices but fluctuations in prices: the mechanisms of the market disturb rather than stabilize prices, and this instability affects the export receipts of the producer countries.
Parallelt hermed har den industrielle udfordring fra udviklingslan dene resulteret i, at de vestlige industrilande er blevet tvunget til at gennemføre en omstrukturering, der er blevet endnu mere påkrævet, fordi velstanden i tresserne førte til, at man lod fem og syv være lige.
Excluding petroleum, the marketindustrialized countries are the principal exporters of basic materials.
Ganske vist indebærer konkurrencen fra udviklingslandene pro blemer for nogle industrier, men den åbner nye perspektiver for andre: jo mere disse lande eksporterer, jo mere vil de kunne importere.
This situation is, though, precarious because of the concentration of supply in the hands of a few companies or countries, notably South Africa.
Det gælder så meget mere, som »den samlede virkning af konkurrencen fra udviklingslandene på beskæftigelsen i industrilandene er neutral eller endog positiv«.
The threat of shortages for certain agricultural basic materials suggests that it is not exaggerated to speak of a 'food weapon'.
Det er, hvad de fleste undersøgelser når frem til.
Despite Europe's agricultural potential, it is less well placed than the USA in any such battle.
Det haster meget med at organisere en. ny udvikling i industrilandene, især fordi de mest avancerede udviklingslande allerede så småt er begyndt at omstille sig for at tage den nye nord-syd-udfordring op, som er ved at kunne anes i landene i syd.
This means, first, investing more in mining and the exploration of classical or other sources both internationally and domestically.
Efter tekstil-, jern- og stålindustrien kan automobilindustrien, aluminiumindustrien og petrokemien let blive de næste truede sektorer.
Secondly, encouraging international cooperation in the search for a global settlement of market uncertainties.
For Tyskland, Japan og USA synes svaret at være positivt.
New techniques of exploration should be developed.
For de fleste andre af industrilandene i Vesten er det mere usikkert.
We are not far, for example, from raw material prospecting by satellite or from the exploitation of deep-water deposits.
Inden for udviklingslandene plejer man at skelne Den fjerde Verden fra de mere avancerede lande. Hvis det ikke lykkes de europæiske lande at sætte en ny udvikling i gang, må man formentlig snart indfore en lignende skelnen her.
Furthermore, a detailed inventory of Europe's indigenous resources, with the development of techniques for the exploitation of small or low-grade deposits, could contribute to a reduction of European dependence on raw materials imports.
Europa er nødt til — for ikke på samme tid at blive overhalet af USA og Japan og indhentet af landene i syd og øst — at benytte sig af sin vigtigste råvare, den grå hjernemasse, og specialisere sig i højt avanceret teknik, ikke blot på de nyeste områder (luftfart, telekommunikation osv.), men også i de truede sektorer (tekstiler, jern- og stålindustrien, bilindustrien).
The global shift in mining activities towards low-grade deposits may soon hit energy constraints or increasing water requirements. Research into low-energy technologies may be desirable.
Automatiseringen og indførelsen af mikroprocessorer vil kunne true den fordel, landene med lavtlønnet arbejdskraft har, og gøre det muligt igen at placere bestemte aktiviteter, f. eks. tekstilindu-jern- og stålindustrien, bilindustrien).
Technology could also contribute towards improving the substitution and recycling of both mineral and vegetable raw materials, for example with new varieties of protein plants. The biological revolution offers real promise.
Den onde cirkel: recession, inflation, arbejdsløshed
The vicious circle: 'recession, inflation, unemployment'
Vækst uden inflation synes for alvor at være et tabt paradis, og — hvad værre er — inflationen og endda i visse tilfælde hyperinflationen (24,2% om året i Storbritannien i 1975, 17% i Italien, 10,9% i Irland) varer ved på trods af recessionen og arbejdsløsheden, som det fremgår af følgende skema, hvor perioderne 1960-1973 og 1973-1978 sammenlignes for de ni lande i Fælleskabet.
Growth without inflation seems to be a lost paradise. Inflation, and even hyperinflation (24.2% per year in the United Kingdom in 1975, 17% in
De ni EF-lande — Gennemsnitlig årlig vækst
The crises: The origins, consequences and challenges for Europe