natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office har også beskrevet tilfælde af manglende upartiskhed, som IMF har konstateret i sine evalueringer. 
The Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF also provided an account of lack of even-handedness that it noted in its evaluations.
Jf. også IEO: Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation Lessons for the IMF, 2014. 
For more details, see IEO, Recurring issues from a decade of evaluation lessons for the IMF, 2014.
Del II - Processerne var generelt svage 29 53 Kommissionens og de andre partneres regelmæssige besøg i landene udgjorde den største mulighed for at skaffe de oplysninger, der var nødvendige for overvågningen. 
Part II — Processes were generally weak 29 53 The regular country visits made by the Commission and the other partners provided the main opportunity for obtaining the necessary information for monitoring.
Under forhandlingerne og gennemgangsbesøgene konsulterede Kommissionen en række ministerier, andre offentlige tjenester samt vigtige uafhængige institutioner (f.eks. centralbanker, finanspolitiske råd og overordnede revisionsorga-ner). 
During its negotiation and review visits, the Commission consulted a number of ministries, other government departments and key independent institutions (such as central banks, fiscal councils and supreme audit institutions).
Desuden holdt Kommissionen møder med andre organer, herunder arbejdsgiverforeninger, fagforeninger og politiske oppositionspartier. 
It also held meetings with other bodies, including employers’ associations, trade unions and opposition political parties.
I tre af de fem lande36 havde Kommissionen en fast repræsentant. 
In three of the five countries36 the Commission maintained a resident representative.
Alt dette betød, at Kommissionen kunne holde sig informeret og identificere reformer, som skulle indgå i programmet. 
All of this enabled the Commission to stay informed and to identify reforms for inclusion in the programme.
Kommissionen indsamlede mange forskellige oplysninger 54 Ud over de oplysninger, der blev indhentet under landebesøgene, fremgik det specifikt af de enkelte aftaleme-moranda, hvilke overvågningsrapporter de respektive lande skulle levere til Kommissionen. 
The Commission collected a wide range of information 54 In addition to the information gathered from country visits, each memorandum of understanding specified monitoring reports that the country in question was required to provide to the Commission.
De oplysninger, der skulle samles i disse overvågningsrapporter, var meget omfattende og vedrørte mange områder. 
The information to be collected in these reports was very broad and touched on many areas.
Kommissionen anmodede om de samme overvågningsoplysninger i alle programmerne. 
The Commission requested similar monitoring information in all programmes.
I nogle få tilfælde blev der dog ikke anmodet om en række nøgleoplysninger, eller der blev kun indsamlet begrænsede nøgleoplysninger. 
However, in a few cases key information was not requested or only a limited amount of key information was collected.
Prognoser kan dog ikke altid være 100 % nøjagtige, fordi de omfatter mange uberegnelige faktorer, som ikke kan forudsiges særlig nøjagtigt. 
However, forecasts are unlikely to be 100 % accurate all the time, as they involve many imponderables which cannot be predicted with any precision.
I stedet for at fokusere på prognosernes nøjagtighed vurderede vi kvaliteten af de prognoseprocesser og -værktøjer, som Kommissionen anvendte i programsammenhæng. 
Instead of focusing on the accuracy of forecasts, we assessed the quality of the forecasting processes and tools applied by the Commission in the programme context.
I praksis udarbejder Kommissionen to adskilte, men tæt forbundne, prognoser (jf. figur 5): i) en programprognose (som omfatter makroøkonomiske prognoser og underskudsprognoser) og ii) et skøn over finansieringsgabet. 
In practice, the Commission prepares two distinct but closely related forecasts (see Figure 5): (i) a programme forecast (comprising macroeconomic and deficit forecasts); and (ii) a financing gap estimate.
36 Letland, Irland og Portugal. 
36 Latvia, Ireland and Portugal.
Del II - Processerne var generelt svage 30 Forbindelser mellem programprognosen og skønnet over finansieringsgabet Programprognose Skøn over finansieringsgabet Makroøkonomisk prognose Løbende poster Skøn over eksternt finansieringsgab Forbundet via flere regnskabsidentiteter (»accounting identities«) Periodiseret offentligt underskud Engangsudgifter til redningstiltag i den finansielle sektor Hvis det indgår i prognosen Underskudsprognose Skøn over den offentlige sektors finansieringsgab Omfatter alle finansieringsbehov i økonomien Kun for lande uden for euroområdet Andre poster på betalingsbalancen Nettoafdrag på ekstern offentlig gæld Nettoafdrag på hele den offentlige gæld Offentligt underskud efter kasseregnskabsmetoden Kassebehov til redningstiltag i den finansielle sektor Tegnforklaring: Regnskabsidentitet Forbindelse mellem to tæt forbundne variabler Anm.: Kun de vigtigste forbindelser vises. 
Part II — Processes were generally weak 30 Links between the programme forecast and financing gap estimate Programme forecast Financing gap estimate Macroeconomic forecast External financing gap estimate If part of forecast Linked through several accounting identities Accrual-based government deficit One-off expenditure due to financial sector rescue Deficit forecast Current account Government sector financing gap estimate Covering all financing needs of the economy Only for countries outside the euro area Other balance-of-payment accounts Net repayments of external government debt Net repayments of all government debt Cash-based government deficit Cash needs due to financial sector rescue Key: Accounting identity Link between two closely related variables Note: Only the key links are depicted.
Figur 5 
Figure 5
Del II - Processerne var generelt svage 31 Det er svært at vurdere udarbejdelsen af programprognoser 56 Der kan bruges en lang række metoder til at udarbejde prognoser, lige fra ren dømmekraft til omfattende kalibrerede eller økonometriske estimeringsmodel-ler med mange adfærdsligninger og identiteter. 
Part II — Processes were generally weak 31 It is difficult to assess the production of programme forecasts 56 Forecasts can be produced using a variety of methods, ranging from pure judgement to large-scale calibrated or econometric estimation models comprising numerous behavioural equations and identities.
57 Kommissionens værktøj til udarbejdelse af program-og underskudsprognoser består hovedsagelig af et sæt regnskabsidentiteter (»accounting identities«), som har til formål at sikre, at der er overensstemmelse mellem de makroøkonomiske prognoser eller prognoserne over de forskellige budgetområder og prognoserne for deres komponenter. 
57 The Commission’s tool for producing programme and deficit forecasts consists of a set of mainly accounting identities, the purpose of which is to ensure that forecasts of macroeconomic or budget aggregates are consistent with the forecasts of their components.
Komponenterne genereres uden for prognoseværktøjet ved hjælp af dømmekraft eller, i visse tilfælde, en blanding af andre kvantitative værktøjer. 
The components are generated outside the forecasting tool using judgement or, at times, a mix of other quantitative tools.
Kommissionen anvender ikke en teoretisk eller empirisk prognosemodel. 
The Commission does not use a theoretical or empirical forecasting model.
Regnearkbaserede prognoser er et besværligt værktøj, der gør det svært at udføre kvalitetskontrol 58 Prognoserne fra de enkelte gennemgange blev typisk udarbejdet i flere regnearkbaserede filer. 
Forecasting spreadsheets are a cumbersome tool which makes quality control problematic 58 The forecasts resulting from each review were typically prepared in multiple spreadsheet files.
Under revisionen var der problemer med at få adgang til alle de relevante filer. 
During the audit, difficulties were met in accessing all the relevant files.
Det skyldtes, at sættet af regneark udgør en overvældende stor og besværlig mængde data37, som hverken er særlig gennemsigtig eller nem at spore. 
This was because the set of spreadsheets constitutes an overwhelmingly large and cumbersome body of data37 which lacks transparency and traceability.
Desuden blev systematisk og let tilgængelig lagring af alt prognosemateriale ikke prioriteret højt, fordi beslutningerne blev truffet under et ekstremt pres. 
Furthermore, as decisions were made under extreme pressure, storing all forecast material in a systematic and easily accessible form was not a priority.
59 I regnearksfilerne blev der aggregeret data, som var genereret uden for værktøjet. 
59 The spreadsheet files aggregated information generated outside the tool.
Dataene kom typisk fra flere forskellige kilder, og prognoserne afhang af forskellige prognosemedar-bejderes dømmekraft både i Kommissionen og hos de andre partnere samt de nationale myndigheder (jf. figur 6). 
Data typically came from several sources, and forecasts depended on judgements made by the various forecasters, both at the Commission and at the other partners and national authorities (see Figure 6).
Heterogene data og anvendelse af en række skøn indgår normalt i udarbejdelsen af makroøkonomiske prognoser, og der er gode grunde til at tage diverse data og skøn i betragtning i prognoseprocessen. 
Data heterogeneity and the use of a range of judgements are normal features of macroeconomic forecasting, and there are good reasons for considering diverse data and judgements in the forecasting process.
Der er dog visse risici, herunder at konsekvenserne af en ny antagelse ikke afspejles i alle prognoserne, eller at nye antagelser ikke er godt underbyggede. 
However, there are some risks, including that the implications of any new assumption will not be properly reflected throughout all forecasts, or that new assumptions will not be well founded.
37 Der udarbejdes en prognose i to til fire centrale filer, som indeholder dusinvis af regneark. 
37 A forecast is prepared in two to four key files, which contain tens of spreadsheets.
Disse centrale prognosefiler er koblet sammen med adskillige formler og trækker data og fremskrivninger fra andre filer, som ikke altid er gemt på samme sted. 
These key forecast files are interlinked with multiple formulas and draw data and projections from other files, which were not always saved in the same location.
Det øger i høj grad risikoen for, at der anvendes inkonsekvente fremskrivninger eller data, når en prognose opdateres, hvilket i en programsammenhæng kan ske dagligt. 
This greatly increases the risk that inconsistent projections or data are used when a forecast is updated, which in a programme context can happen on a daily basis.
Antagelser er spredt ud over regnearkene i de centrale prognosefiler, og det er svært at få et klart billede af de skøn, der er foretaget. 
Assumptions are scattered throughout the spreadsheets in the key forecasting files and it takes considerable effort to obtain a clear picture of the judgement applied.
Personalet anvender endvidere subsidiære modeller, som lagres uden for regnearkene. 
Moreover, the staff use subsidiary models, which are stored outside the spreadsheets.
Del II - Processerne var generelt svage 32 Hovedtrækkene i makroøkonomiske prognoser og underskudsprognoser Historiske budgetdata Finansministeriets statistiske kontor Nye finanspolitiske tiltag Finansministeriet Kilde: Revisionsretten. 
Part II — Processes were generally weak 32 Macroeconomic and deficit forecasts at a glance Historical fiscal data Ministry of finance Statistical office New fiscal measures Ministry of finance Source: ECA.
60 For at imødegå disse risici blev der udført kvalitetskontrol af prognose-resultaterne på forskellige stadier af prognoseprocessen. 
60 To manage these risks, quality control of the forecasting results was done at several stages during the forecasting process.
Der er indbygget visse konsekvenskontroller38 i regne-arket. 
Some consistency checks38 are built into the spreadsheet.
De prognosemedarbejdere, der var ansvarlige for henholdsvis den budgetmæssige og den makroøkonomiske del af prognosen, drøftede deres resultater indbyrdes og brugte efter behov yderligere skøn for at sikre konsekvens i estimaterne39. 
The forecasters responsible for, respectively, the fiscal and the macroeconomic sides of the forecast discussed their results among themselves and, when required, applied additional judgement in order to ensure consistency of the estimates39.
Historiske makrodata Eurostat - statistisk kontor Underskudsprognose Makroprognose Budgettets virkning på makro Makros virkning på budgettet Skøn over budget-fremskrivning Skøn over makro-variabler 61 Kvalitetskontrollen af prognosemedarbejdernes arbejde bestod imidlertid hovedsagelig af afstemning, hvor der ikke blev spurgt ind til prognoseprocessen inden for programteamet. 
39 In autumn 2013 the Commission introduced a new tool for the automatic detection of numerical and economic inconsistencies, but the tool was not used for the programme forecasts. Essentially, however, quality control of the forecasters’ work took the form of reconciliations, with no inquiry into the forecasting process within the programme team.
Regnearksmetoden og manglen på dokumentation gjorde det vanskeligt at vurdere sandsynligheden af de antagelser og implicitte parametre, som blev brugt i prognosearbejdet. 
The spreadsheet approach and the scarcity of documentation made it hard to assess the plausibility of the assumptions and implicit parameters used in the forecasting.
Drøftelser mellem partnerne var det eneste sted i kontrolprocessen, hvor sandsynligheden af antagelserne og de implicitte parametre blev kontrolleret. 
Discussion between partners was the only control stage at which the plausibility of the assumptions and implicit parameters was checked.
Figur 6 
Figure 6
Del II - Processerne var generelt svage 33 62 En analyse af de regnearkbaserede prognoser afslørede også eksempler på fejl og uoverensstemmelser trods konsekvenskontrol (jf. tekstboks 1). 
Part II — Processes were generally weak 33 62 Analysis of the forecasting sheets also revealed examples of errors and inconsistencies that were present despite the consistency checks (see Box 1).
Eksempler på fejl og uoverensstemmelser i prognoserne i) Momsen på det private forbrug var ikke afstemt mellem de offentlige indtægter og betalingerne i den private sektor, hvilket førte til en difference på 0,7 % i BNP i et år. ii) På grund af manuelle formeljusteringer blev beløbet i direkte skatter på arbejdskraft ikke afstemt mellem den offentlige sektor og husholdningssektoren. 
Examples of errors and inconsistencies in forecasts (i) The amount of VAT levied on private consumption was not aligned between government revenue and private-sector payments, leading to a difference of 0.7 % in GDP in 1 year. (ii) Owing to manual formula adjustments, the amount of direct taxes levied on labour was not aligned between the government and household sectors.
Differencen var over 0,5 % af BNP. iii) En skatteforanstaltning, der trådte i kraft midt i året, indgik i prognosen for hele året. 
The difference exceeded 0.5 % of GDP. (iii) A tax measure applicable from the middle of the year was applied to the forecast on a full-year basis.
Den tilhørende underskudsfremskrivning blev anvendt i programdokumentet til støtte for afgørelsen om at frigive en tranche og meddelt til Det Økonomiske og Finansielle Udvalg i juni 2009. iv) Ejendomsprisernes effekt blev ikke indregnet på ensartet vis i fremskrivningerne af det samme prisindeks, som blev anvendt i forskellige prognoser for det samme år. 
The corresponding deficit projection was used in the programme document supporting the decision to release an instalment and communicated to the EFC in June 2009. (iv) The impact of property prices was not factored consistently into projections of the same price index used in different forecasts for the same year.
Vanskeligt at vurdere sandsynligheden af finanspolitiske multiplikatorer 63 Finanspolitiske variabler blev registreret i regnearkene i form af forventede indtægter eller udgifter, som blev øget eller mindsket med nettoafkastet på budgettet af nye finanspolitiske tiltag i årets løb. 
Difficulties in assessing the plausibility of fiscal multipliers 63 Fiscal variables were recorded in the spreadsheets in the form of the expected volume of revenue or spending, which was increased or decreased by the net budgetary yield of any new fiscal measures during the year.
Nye tiltags virkning på økonomien og afsmitningen på det offentlige budget blev ikke udtrykkeligt angivet eller registreret i regnearkene. 
The impact of new measures on the economy and the knock-on effect on the public budget were not explicitly stated or recorded in the spreadsheets.
I stedet for var afsmitningen allerede indregnet i prognoseværdierne for yderligere budgetafkast. 
Instead, the forecast values of additional budgetary yield already took account of the knock-on effect.
64 Prognoserne for nettobudgetafkast blev taget fra prognoser, som de nationale myndigheder havde udarbejdet som interne estimater som led i deres planlægningsproces. 
64 The forecasts of net budgetary yield were taken from forecasts generated by the national authorities, which estimated them internally as part of their planning procedures.
De nationale myndigheder drøftede deres estimater med partnernes medarbejdere, hvorefter de kunne blive revideret, inden de blev formelt godkendt og indgik i programprognoserne. 
The national authorities discussed their estimates with the partners’ staff, whereupon they might be revised before being formally accepted and included in the programme forecasts.
Del II - Processerne var generelt svage 34 65 Der blev taget højde for de forskellige finanspolitiske tiltags indvirkning på realøkonomien både implicit og uden for regnearkene via en række forskelligartede procedurer. 
Part II — Processes were generally weak 34 65 The impact of different fiscal measures on the real economy was accounted for implicitly and outside the spreadsheets by way of several heterogeneous procedures.
I de anvendte regneark var det ikke muligt at spore kilden til eller begrundelsen for bestemte antagelser. 
The spreadsheets used did not allow the source of particular assumptions, or the reasons for them, to be traced.
Selve landekontorerne havde ikke nogen reel viden om, hvilke modeller de nationale myndigheder havde brugt til at estimere parametrene til vurdering af de forskellige finanspolitiske tiltags indvirkning på økonomien. 
The country desks themselves had no real knowledge of the models applied by national authorities to estimate the parameters for assessing the impact of different fiscal measures on the economy.
Der manglede gennemsigtighed og viden om den implicitte værdi af de finanspolitiske multiplikatorer40. 
There was a lack of transparency and knowledge about the implicit value of the fiscal multipliers40.
Først i 2013 foretog Kommissionen et skøn over de implicitte multiplikatorer. 
Only in 2013 did the Commission carry out an exercise to estimate the implicit multipliers.
Skønnene over finansieringsgabet var ufuldstændige og unøjagtige 68 Skønnet over finansieringsgabet spiller en central rolle i forhandlingsfasen, hvor omfanget af den finansielle bistand fastsættes og typisk fortsætter uændret. 
Financing gap estimates were incomplete and inaccurate 68 The financing gap estimate is of paramount importance at the negotiation stage, because this is when the amount of financial assistance is set, typically to remain unchanged.
Hvis der opstår nye finansieringsbehov i programmets løbetid, skal de dækkes inden for den samlede finansieringsramme. 
If new funding needs emerge during the programme, they have to be accommodated within the overall financial envelope.
Modsat udarbejdelse af programprognoser var estimering af finansieringsgabet en ny opgave for Kommissionen. 
Unlike the preparation of programme forecasts, estimating the financing gap was a new activity for the Commission.
69 For eurolandene svarer finansieringsgabet kun til de offentlige myndigheders behov. 
69 For the euro area countries, the financing gap corresponds only to the needs of their governments.
Uden for euroområdet skal den finansielle bistand dække alle behov for ekstern finansiering, som fremgår af et lands betalingsbalance. 
Outside the euro area, the financial assistance must cover all external financing needs as presented in a country’s balance of payments.
Kommissionen underbyggede altid sine beslutninger om at yde finansiel bistand ved at fremsende det første estimat over finansieringsgabet til Rådet. 
The Commission always justified its decisions to provide assistance by submitting the initial financing gap estimate to the Council.
De underliggende beregninger blev udarbejdet i regneark. 
The underlying calculations were prepared in spreadsheets.
Muligheden for at foretage en gennemgang blev betydeligt begrænset af manglen på dokumentation. 
However, the shortage of documentation greatly limited the possibility of review.
På anmodning kunne Kommissionen kun tilvejebringe foreløbige dokumenter41, som var forskellige fra de endelige versioner, som var forelagt for Rådet, og Kommissionen kunne ikke give oplysninger om vigtige elementer i estimatet42 eller fremskaffe baggrundsfiler43. 
When requested, the Commission was only able to provide provisional docu-ments41, which differed from the final versions submitted to the Council, could provide no information on important elements of the estimate42 or could not provide any background files43.
40 De finanspolitiske multiplikatorer måler omfanget af forskellige finanspolitiske konsolideringstiltags virkning på centrale makroøkonomiske variabler (forbrug, produktion) og budgetvariabler (underskud). 
40 The fiscal multiplier measures the magnitude of impact of different fiscal consolidation measures on key macroeconomic (consumption, output) and fiscal (deficit) variables.
41 Det lettiske og det rumænske program. 
41 Latvian and Romanian programmes.
42 Det irske program. 
42 Irish programme.
43 Det ungarske og det portugisiske program. 
43 Hungarian and Portuguese programmes.
66 Den eneste kontrol af nettoafkastet var en sandsynlighedsvurdering baseret på partnernes medarbejderes skøn. 
66 The only checks made of net yields took the form of a judgemental plausibility assessment by the partners’ staff.
Denne metode vil med stor sandsynlighed afsløre betydelige over-eller undervurderinger, men den er mindre egnet til at identificere forholdsvis små fejl, som kan hobe sig op og dermed spille en betydelig rolle. 
While this approach is highly likely to detect any substantial over-or under-estimates, it is less amenable to identifying relatively small errors which may cumulatively still be of significant magnitude.
67 Programteamene registrerede visse oplysninger, men i varierende grad, fordi der ikke var noget formelt krav om det. 
67 The programme teams kept records of some information, but to varying degrees because there was no formal requirement to do so.
Derfor kunne vi ikke identificere og gennemgå de anvendte antagelser og parameterværdier. 
As a result, we were unable to identify and review the assumptions and parameter values that were used.
Hvis en prognose viste sig at være forkert (f.eks. hvis den undervurderede den negative virkning på BNP-væksten af et fald i de offentlige udgifter), var det umuligt eller ekstremt vanskeligt at finde frem til fejlkilden. 
If a forecast proved to be wrong, (for instance if it underestimated the negative effect on GDP growth of a reduction in public expenditure), it was impossible or extremely difficult to identify the source of the error.