natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Scenario I (det såkaldte pessimistiske scenario) gav en negativ nettonutidsværdi (herefter NNV) for fremtidige cash flow på omkring 1000 mio. ISK, og scenario II (det såkaldte optimistiske scenario) en positiv NNV for fremtidige cash flow på ca. 200 mio. ISK.
Scenario I (so-called pessimistic scenario) produced a negative net present value (hereinafter NPV) of future free cash flows of approximately ISK 1000 million, and Scenario II (so-called optimistic scenario) a positive NPV of future free cash flows of approximately ISK 200 million.
Efter en justering af disse NNV-tal ved at fratrække langfristet gæld og indregne overskydende nettoomsætningsaktiver får de islandske myndigheder en anslået egenkapitalværdi på – 897 mio. ISK for scenario I og 307 mio. ISK for scenario II.
Adjusting the NPV measures by subtracting long-term debt and adding excess net current assets, the Icelandic Government arrived at estimated equity values of ISK – 897 million for Scenario I, and ISK 307 million for Scenario II.
Kapacitetsudnyttelsen var afgørende for resultatet.
Capacity utilisation was decisive for the variation in outcome.
De variable produktionsomkostninger pr. ton blev anslået til 5749 ISK i år med fuld kapacitetsudnyttelse (130000 tons) og 7479 ISK i år med meget lav kapacitetsudnyttelse (70000 tons).
Variable production cost per tonne were estimated to amount to ISK 5749 in years with full capacity utilisation (130000 tonnes) to ISK 7479 in years with very low capacity utilisation (70000 tonnes).
Der var derfor en dobbelt stordriftsfordel i beregningen, da både de variable og pr. definition de faste omkostninger pr. ton falder ved en produktionsstigning [16].
There was therefore a double economy of scale effect in the calculation, since both variable and by definition fixed costs per tonne decrease with the higher volume produced [16].
I ledsagebrevet anførte de islandske myndigheder, at det optimistiske scenario ikke var realistisk, da det var baseret på fravær af konkurrence på det islandske cementmarked.
In the accompanying letter, the Icelandic authorities argued that the optimistic scenario was not realistic, because it assumed no competition in the Icelandic cement market.
I betragtning af de anlægsinvesteringer, som den danske konkurrent Aalborg Portland har foretaget, blev det betragtet som urealistisk, at konkurrencen ville ophøre på det islandske cementmarked.
In view of the investments in facilities by the Danish competitor Aalborg Portland, it was considered unlikely that competition would cease in the Icelandic cement market.
De islandske myndigheder anførte ikke, om det mest pessimistiske scenario var realistisk.
The Icelandic authorities did not comment upon the realism of the most pessimistic scenario.
Eksperten kritiserede, at der var brugt en høj diskonteringssats (der inkluderede en risikopræmie) i de modeller, som de islandske myndigheder fremlagde.
The expert criticised that a high discount rate (which included a risk premium) had been used in the models presented by the Icelandic authorities.
En høj diskonteringssats kan undervurdere de forpligtelser, der følger af negative likviditetsstrømme, og således uretmæssigt forskønne perspektiverne.
A high discount rate may underestimate the liability that followed from negative cash-flows and thus embellish the prospects unduly.
Uanset denne kritik og for at sikre konsekvens er den reelle diskonteringssats på 12,4 %, som de islandske myndigheder foreslog, blevet anvendt i hele analysen i de forskellige foreslåede scenarier.
Notwithstanding this criticism, for consistency reasons, the real discount rate of 12,4 % suggested by the Icelandic authorities has been used throughout the analysis in the different scenarios proposed.
Omformulering af det pessimistiske scenario
Reformulating the pessimistic scenario
Scenario I viste en virksomhed med konstante tab over en trediveårig periode, hvilket er fuldstændig irrationelt.
Scenario I showed an undertaking making continuous losses over a period of 30 years, which seems wholly irrational.
Da den uafhængige eksperts hensigt med at opstille et pessimistisk scenario var at fastsætte en nedre grænse for mulige resultater, var scenario I, som de islandske myndigheder fremlagde, klart mangelfuldt [17].
Considering that the intention pursued by the independent expert with the establishment of a pessimistic scenario was to determine a lower limit for possible outcomes, Scenario I presented by the Icelandic authorities was clearly inadequate [17].
Alle rationelle investeringsbeslutninger er baseret på en forventning om et positivt afkast.
Any rational investment decision is based on an expectation of a positive return.
Spørgsmålet er, hvordan en rationel investor vil reagere, hvis det forventede positive afkast ikke fremkommer.
The question arises of how a rational investor would react if the expected positive return does not materialise.
En almindelig adfærd i sådanne tilfælde vil være at minimere tabene i lyset af reviderede forventninger.
A common behaviour in such cases would be to minimise losses in the light of revised expectations.
Derfor omformulerede den uafhængige ekspert det pessimistiske scenario med udgangspunkt i en femårig tidsramme med lav kapacitetsudnyttelse (82000 tons pr. år svarende til gennemsnittet i scenario I), lave salgspriser på 2003-niveauet (7071 ISK pr. ton) og baseret på en formodning om, at selskabet ville være afviklet efter fem års drift.
Accordingly, the independent expert reformulated the pessimistic scenario on the assumption of five years time-frame with low capacity utilisation (82000 tonnes per year, equal to the average of Scenario I), low sales prices maintained at the level of 2003 (ISK 7071 per tonne), and assuming that the company would be liquidated after five years of operations.
Det blev endvidere antaget, at alle negative likviditetsstrømme overføres til ejerne.
It was further assumed that all negative cash-flows are carried on to the owners.
Ifølge eksperten forekom dette at være en fornuftig strategi for det værst tænkelige scenario, da enhver rationel investeringsbeslutning vil være baseret på en formodning om et positivt afkast og på muligheden for at reagere, hvis dette positive afkast ikke fremkommer.
According to the expert, this seemed a reasonable strategy for the worst case scenario since any rational investment decision would be based on an expectation of a positive return and on the possibility to react if this positive return did not materialise.
Det værst tænkelige scenario, der vil føre til stop for cementproduktion efter fem år, vil give anledning til, at der umiddelbart derefter skal gennemføres en oprydning.
A worst case scenario that would lead to the discontinuance of cement production after five years would trigger a clean up activity to be carried out immediately thereafter.
Det foreskrives i lejeaftalerne mellem Sementsverksmiðjan hf. og byen Akranes i juli 2003, at »hvis cementproduktionen ophører i en sammenhængende periode på 24 måneder, skal Iceland Cement Ltd nedrive materialelageret for egen regning« [18].
According to the lease agreement signed between Sementsverksmiðjan hf. and the town of Akranes in July 2003, ‘if cement production ceases for a continuous period of 24 months, Iceland Cement Ltd must demolish the materials storage at its own expense’ [18].
På basis af de islandske myndigheders oplysninger var oprydningsomkostningerne blevet anslået til 460 mio. ISK, formodentlig i løbende priser [19].
On the basis of the information provided by the Icelandic authorities, the clean up costs had been estimated to ISK 460 million, presumably at current prices [19].
Nettovirkningen af alternativ brug af anlægsaktiverne (f.eks. til cementimport) og oprydning blev indregnet.
The net effect of alternative usage of the fixed assets (such as for cement importation) and the clean-up costs were added.
Ifølge den uafhængige eksperts omformulering gav en cash flow-simulering på disse betingelser et negativt årligt cash flow på 144 mio. ISK i en femårig periode, og en nettonutidsværdi af en negativ udgift på 360 mio. ISK i det sjette år.
According to the reformulation made by the independent expert, a cash-flow simulation on these premises gave a negative cash flow from operations of ISK 144 million each year during five years, and a net present value of a negative outlay of ISK 360 million in the sixth year.
Nutidsværdien af disse cash flow blev beregnet til – 691 mio. ISK, og efter justering for balanceposter uden for driftscyklussen blev investeringens værdi fastsat til – 332 mio. ISK.
The discounted value of these cash flows was calculated at ISK – 691 million, and after the adjustment for balance sheet items outside the operating cycle the value of the investment was determined at ISK – 332 million.
Omformulering af det optimistiske scenario
Reformulating the optimistic scenario
Formålet med det optimistiske scenario var at fastsætte en øvre grænse for de mulige resultater.
The purpose of the optimistic scenario was to establish an upper limit to the possible outcomes.
Det vigtigste træk ved et optimistisk scenario var, at transaktionerne skulle balancere efter fem år.
The essential feature of an optimistic scenario was that operations should balance after five years.
Udgangspunktet var det første driftsår efter privatiseringen med en forventet produktion på 100000 tons, en cementpris på 7489 ISK, variable omkostninger som anført i omkostningsberegningen (6381 ISK pr. ton) og faste omkostninger som forventet i scenario I (127 mio. ISK).
The starting point was the first operating year after privatisation, with an assumed production of 100000 tonnes, a cement price of ISK 7489, variable costs as stated in the cost formula (ISK 6381 per tonne), and overheads as assumed in scenario I (ISK 127 million).
De årlige kontante virkninger af reinvesteringer blev anslået til 40 ISK, der meget vel kunne overstige afskrivninger.
The annual cash effects of reinvestments were assumed at ISK 40, which could well exceed depreciations.
På basis af disse antagelser blev det første års netto cash flow beregnet til – 38 mio. ISK.
On the basis of these assumptions, the net cash-flow for the first year was calculated at ISK – 38 million.
Efterfølgende ville netto cash flowet gradvist over en femårig periode udvikle sig frem mod nul i det sjette år.
Subsequently, the net cash-flow would gradually converge over five years towards zero in the sixth year.
Nettonutidsværdien af cash flow i de første fem driftsår blev anslået til – 59 mio. ISK.
The net present value of the cash-flows of the first five years of operations was estimated at ISK – 59 million.
Ud fra den antagelse, at driftsoverskuddet herefter ville være tæt på nul, blev transaktionernes nutidsværdi i de efterfølgende år sat til nul.
Assuming that the operating profit would be close to zero thereafter, the present value of the operations in succeeding years was set to zero.
I dette scenario fandt eksperten det fornuftigt, at fremførsler af skattemæssige tab [20] ikke blev udnyttet i de første år.
In this scenario the expert assumed it was reasonable that the tax loss carry-forwards [20] would not be exploited during the first years.
Resultatet af transaktionerne blev justeret efter balanceposter uden for driftscyklussen (som i det pessimistiske scenario) og førte til en nettonutidsværdi på 300 mio. ISK.
The result of the operations was adjusted with balance sheet items outside the operating cycle (as it was done in the pessimistic scenario) and resulted in a net present value of ISK 300 million.
Eksperten brugte igen en diskonteringssats på 12,4 % som i det pessimistiske scenario.
The expert used again a discount rate of 12,4 %, as in the pessimistic scenario.
Han understregede, at denne sats udelukkende afspejler egenkapitalomkostninger (før skat), mens investeringsprojektet i dette scenario normalt i vidt omfang ville være gældsfinansieret og dermed sænke det samlede krævede afkast.
He pointed out that this rate reflects the cost of equity (pre-tax) only, whereas the investment project under this scenario would normally be financed for a large part with debt, thus lowering the overall required rate of return.
En lavere diskonteringssats ville give et mindre positivt resultat, da de inkluderede cash flow alle er negative.
A lower discount rate would produce a less positive result, since the cash flows included are all negative.
Eksperten understregede imidlertid, at det var vigtigt konsekvent at bruge den samme sats i alle scenarier.
However, he pointed out that it was important to consistently use the same rate throughout all scenarios.
På basis af ovenstående vurderinger mente den uafhængige ekspert, det var hensigtsmæssigt at fastsætte en øvre og en nedre grænse for dagsværdimålinger ved tilbagediskontering af fremtidige cash flow.
On the basis of the abovementioned assessments, in the opinion of the independent expert, it was appropriate to determine an upper and a lower limit for fair value measurements through discounting future cash-flows.
Den øvre grænse skulle vedrøre det pessimistiske scenario, hvor cementproduktionen ophørte efter nogle driftsår, der overbeviste ejerne om, at transaktionerne ikke ville blive rentable.
The lower limit would relate to the pessimistic scenario, in which cement production was to be interrupted after some years of operation, during which the owners would become persuaded that operations would not become profitable.
Ud over trækket på ressourcer i disse tabsgivende år ville selskabet også skulle klare oprydningsomkostningerne ved produktionens ophør [21].
In addition to the drain on resources from those loss-making years, the company would have to assume clean up-costs when ending the production [21].
På den positive side i dette scenario var de oprindelige lagre og finansielle ressourcer, der ville give et positivt afkast ved likvidation, samt anden brug af visse anlægsaktiver.
On the positive side in this scenario were initial stocks and financial resources, which would give positive proceeds when liquidated, as well as alternative use of some fixed assets.
På basis af cash flow-vurderinger blev den laveste markedsværdi for Sementsverksmiðjan hf. sat til – 322 mio. ISK.
On the basis of cash-flow valuations, the lowest market value of Sementsverksmiðjan hf. was estimated at ISK – 322 million.
Den øvre grænse blev fastsat i det optimistiske scenario, hvor det blev vurderet, at rentabiliteten af cementproduktion gradvist ville bedres og ville balancere efter nogle år.
The upper limit would be established by the optimistic scenario, in which the profitability of cement production was considered to gradually improve and a break-even would be struck after some years.
Som i det pessimistiske scenario ville de første år medføre tab, der ville trække ressourcer ud af selskabet, i hvert fald i et vist omfang.
As in the pessimistic scenario the initial years would bring losses that drained resources from the company, albeit at a more modest level.
Nettonutidsværdien af transaktioner efter opnåelse af balance ville formodentlig være ubetydelig og indgik derfor ikke i beregningen.
The net present value of operations after striking break-even was most likely negligible and was therefore ignored in the calculation.
Der var også i dette scenario positive bidrag fra oprindelige lagre og finansielle poster.
In this scenario too, there were positive contributions from initial stocks and financial items.
På basis af cash flow-vurderinger blev den højeste markedsværdi for Sementsverksmiðjan hf. sat til 300 mio. ISK.
On the basis of cash-flow valuations, the highest market value of Sementsverksmiðjan hf. was estimated at ISK 300 million.
Cash flow-beregningerne viste således et interval for dagsværdi, der var forholdsvis symmetrisk omkring nul med forholdsvis sandsynlige resultater inden for en sandsynlighedsmargen på ca. 300 mio. ISK.
The cash-flow calculations therefore suggested a fair value interval rather symmetric around zero with reasonably likely outcomes within a range of approximately ± ISK 300 million.
Private interesser
Private interests
I nogle tilfælde kan en aftalt transaktion afvige fra en konstateret eller hypotetisk markedsværdi, fordi den ene part i transaktionen har klare private interesser i den pågældende transaktion.
In some cases, an agreed transaction may deviate from an observable or hypothetical market value because one party to the transaction has identifiable private interests in that particular transaction.
Ifølge eksperter var der ved Íslenskt sement ehf.'s køb af statens aktier i Sementsverksmiðjan hf. klart involveret private interesser, der kan have påvirket transaktionsprisen.
In the opinion of the expert, in the acquisition of the State’s shares in Sementsverksmiðjan hf. by Íslenskt sement ehf. there were clearly private interests involved, which may have influenced the transaction price.
Íslenskt sement ehf. var et konsortium af tre selskaber oprettet med henblik på at erhverve statens aktier i Sementsverksmiðjan hf.: BM Valla, Björgun og Norcem.
Íslenskt sement ehf. was a consortium of three companies created for the acquisition of the State’s shares in Sementsverksmiðjan hf.: BM Valla, Björgun and Norcem.
BM Valla er et stort bygningsfirma i Island og en stor køber af cement.
BM Valla is a major construction firm in Iceland and a large buyer of cement.
Ifølge de oplysninger, der kom frem på mødet mellem repræsentanter for Tilsynsmyndigheden, den uafhængige ekspert og repræsentanter for de islandske myndigheder og Íslenskt sement ehf., har BM Valla to strategiske interesser i den islandske cementvirksomhed.
According to the information provided in the meeting between representatives of the Authority, the independent expert and representatives of the Icelandic authorities and Íslenskt sement ehf., BM Valla has two strategic interests in the Icelandic cement plant.
Den ene er at sikre, at udbuddet af cement på det islandske marked ikke bliver domineret af en eneste leverandør.
One is to ensure that cement supply in the Icelandic market will not be dominated by one single supplier.
Den anden interesse er at bevare lokal produktudvikling og kompetence, hvilket på lang sigt er en fordel for bygningsindustrien, navnlig under hensyntagen til de tekniske karakteristika for det islandske cementmarked.
The second interest is to maintain local product development and competence, to the long-term benefit of the construction industry, in particular, taking into account the technical specificities of the Icelandic cement market.
Björgun er leverandør af støbesand til Sementsverksmiðjan hf.
Björgun is the supplier of shell sand to Sementsverksmiðjan hf.
Hvis den lokale cementproduktion ophører, vil Björgun ikke have alternative markeder for sine produkter.
If local cement production ceases, Björgun would have no alternative outlet for its products.
Norcem er en norsk cementproducent ejet af den tyske koncern Heidelberger Zement.
Norcem is a Norwegian cement producer, owned by the German group Heidelberger Zement.
Norcem kan have strategiske og konkurrencemæssige interesser i at styrke sin tilstedeværelse på det islandske marked.
Norcem may have strategic and competitive interests in strengthening its presence in the Icelandic market.
I lyset af køberkonsortiets særlige karakteristika mener den uafhængige ekspert i dette tilfælde, at den aftalte pris er blevet påvirket af de private interesser.
In light of the specific circumstances of the consortium of buyers, in this case, the independent expert considers that the agreed exchange price has been influenced by the existence of private interests.
Derfor konkluderer den uafhængige ekspert, at [22]»selv om jeg finder den aftalte pris på 68 mio. ISK ret høj, kan der være forhold i ejernes situation, der øger sandsynligheden for at få investeringsomkostningerne igen«.
For these reasons, the independent expert concluded that [22]‘although I find the agreed price of 68 m ISK rather on the high side, there may be elements of the situation of the owners that increase the probability of recovery of the investment cost’.
Tilsynsmyndigheden har vurderet de oplysninger og tal, som de islandske myndigheder har fremsendt, og nøje undersøgt den uafhængige eksperts vurdering og rapport.
The Authority has assessed the facts and figures presented by the Icelandic authorities and carefully scrutinised the assessment and the report presented by the independent expert.
Tilsynsmyndigheden fandt, at ekspertens analyse gav en korrekt værdiansættelse af Sementsverksmiðjan hf.
The Authority has found the analysis of the expert to represent a fair way to establish the value of Sementsverksmiðjan hf.
Som allerede nævnt i beslutning nr. 421/04/KOL om at indlede den formelle undersøgelse kan man ikke gå ud fra, at likvidationsværdien af et selskab, der forventes at fortsætte driften, udgør selskabets markedsværdi.
As already indicated in Decision No 421/04/COL to open the formal investigation procedure, one cannot assume that the liquidation value of a company that is foreseen to continue operations represents the market value of the company.
Tilsynsmyndigheden mener ligesom den uafhængige ekspert, at discounted cash flow-metoden er den rette metode til at beregne værdien af en virksomhed som i det foreliggende tilfælde.
In line with the view of the independent expert, the Authority considers that a discounted cash-flow analysis is an appropriate way to calculate the value of an undertaking as the one in the case at hand.
Tilsynsmyndigheden erkender imidlertid, at en vurdering af selskabets værdi på transaktionstidspunktet klart er underlagt en betydelig usikkerhed.
The Authority reckons, however, that an assessment of the value of the company at the time of the transaction is obviously liable to considerable uncertainty.
Med henblik på at værdiansætte et selskab finder Tilsynsmyndigheden det derfor fornuftigt i lighed med eksperten at undersøge forskellige scenarier for at fastsætte et interval, inden for hvilket værdiansættelsen kan finde sted.
Therefore, in the view of the Authority, for the purpose of estimating the value of a company it appears reasonable to study different scenarios, as the expert did, to establish a range within which it would be justified to assume the value to be found.
Salgsprisen for statens aktier i Sementsverksmiðjan hf. var inden for det fastsatte interval og endda over middelværdien på omkring nul.
The sales price of the State’s shares in Sementsverksmiðjan hf. was within the established range and even above the middle value of approximately zero.
Endvidere havde de islandske myndigheder fastsat, at selskabets likvidationsværdi svarede til 69,6 mio. ISK.
Moreover, the Icelandic authorities had determined that the liquidation value of the company corresponded to ISK 69,6 million.
Den pris, Íslenskt sement ehf. betalte for statens aktier i Sementsverksmiðjan hf., var således højere end selskabets likvidationsværdi.
Thus, the price that Íslenskt sement ehf. paid for the State’s shares in Sementsverksmiðjan hf. was higher than the liquidation value of the company.
På grundlag af disse betragtninger kan Tilsynsmyndigheden ikke konkludere, at selskabet blev solgt under markedspris.
On the basis of these considerations, the Authority cannot conclude that the company was sold under market value.
Derfor kan Tilsynsmyndigheden ikke konkludere, at Íslenskt sement ehf., det selskab der blev oprettet af investorgruppen med henblik på opkøb af statens aktier i Sementsverksmiðjan hf., opnåede en økonomisk fordel i medfør af EØS-aftalens artikel 61, stk. 1.
Therefore, the Authority cannot conclude that Íslenskt sement ehf., as the company founded by the investors group to purchase the State’s shares in Sementsverksmiðjan hf., obtained an economic advantage within the meaning of Article 61(1) of the EEA Agreement.
Ifølge EØS-aftalens artikel 61, stk. 1, skal fire kumulative betingelser være opfyldt, for at en foranstaltning udgør statsstøtte.
According to Article 61(1) of the EEA Agreement, four cumulative conditions must be fulfilled in order for a measure to constitute State aid.