natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Kapaciteten i Kina (råstål og samme vare)
At this stage, the data for profitability, order intakes and the level of inventories were the best available data.
Hvad angår kapaciteten i Kina for råstål, så fremgår det af de tilgængelige oplysninger, at den kinesiske stålkapacitet har været hastigt stigende i lang tid.
Finally, Article 3(9) first subparagraph, second sentence, of the basic Regulation requires that the change in circumstances must have been clearly foreseen and must be imminent.
Hvor Kina tegnede sig for 25,6 % af den samlede verdensproduktion af råstål i 2004 [13], så fordoblede landet næsten sin faktiske produktion og tegnede sig for 50,3 % i 2015.
Threat of injury
I den henseende fastslås det i stålmeddelelsen fra Kommissionen at: ...der har været en dramatisk stigning i ledig produktionskapacitet i visse tredjelande, navnlig i Kina.
Significant rate of increase of dumped imports into the Union market indicating the likelihood of substantially increased imports
Her alene anslås overkapaciteten til omkring 350 millioner ton, hvilket er knap halvdelen af EU's årlige produktion [14].
Imports from the country concerned significantly increased from 246720 to 1519304 tonnes between 2012 and the investigation period, as shown in the table at recital (76) above.
I den forbindelse anslår OECD den samlede kinesiske kapacitet til stålfremstilling til 1140 mio. ton [15] i 2014, mens den faktiske kinesiske produktion blev beregnet til 822,8 mio. ton [16].
These imports have consistently taken place at continuously lowering prices.
Som følge heraf må den tilgængelige kinesiske overkapacitet i hvert fald være mere end 300 mio. ton.
The substantial increase of the market share held by these Chinese dumped imports (+ 550 %) confirms that the development of these imports was not only the consequence of an increase in demand (+ 12 %).
En sådan overkapacitet for stål er hverken i trit med efterspørgslen efter samme vare i Kina eller i andre lande.
The Chinese exporting producers have been penetrating a new market and gaining market shares with low-priced imports at the expense of other economic actors, including the Union producers.
Faktisk er der en opbremsning i væksten på efterspørgslen på de globale markeder, og ifølge en nylig OECD-undersøgelse er kløften mellem kapacitet og efterspørgsel blevet større [17].
The volume of Chinese imports further increased (by 8,5 %) in the first half of 2016 (773275 tonnes) (source: Eurostat), compared to the first half of 2015 (712390 tonnes).
For nylig blev der dog rapporteret om uoverensstemmelser mellem den ovennævnte kinesiske meddelelse om en reduktion af kapaciteten i perioden efter undersøgelsesperioden og den faktiske situation, som følger:
The available data show that not only the Chinese dumped imports have shown a substantial increase during the period considered, but also that this trend was not stopped or reversed during the post-investigation period.
Kommissionen analyserede også de kinesiske myndigheders tilsagn og forpligtelser som nævnt i betragtning 128.
Sufficient freely disposable capacity
Til trods for de udmeldinger, der kom i begyndelsen af 2016, er de endnu ikke blevet til virkelighed.
Capacity in the PRC (crude steel and the like product)
Dette vidner om den enorme produktionskapacitet af samme vare i Kina.
The overcapacity in China alone has been estimated at around 350 million tonnes, almost the double of the Union's annual production.
Bare for de tre virksomheder giver det over 14 mio. ton i fri kapacitet til rådighed for den pågældende vare.
In this respect, the OECD estimated the total Chinese steelmaking capacity to be 1140 million tonnes [15] in 2014, whereas the actual Chinese production was calculated to be 822,8 million tonnes [16].
Dette er endnu et tegn på den uudnyttede produktionskapacitet for samme vare.
As a result, the available Chinese excess capacity is certainly more than 300 million tonnes.
Hvis det samme er tilfældet for andre kinesiske producenter af varmvalsede flade produkter af stål, kan der antages at være en meget høj uudnyttet kapacitet herfor i Kina.
Such steel overcapacity is also not in line with the demand for the like product in the PRC or in other countries.
EU-markedet er desuden et åbent marked med en høj grad af import fra flere lande, som vist i tabellen i betragtning 177.
In fact there is a slowing demand growth in global markets and the capacity/demand gap has been widening, according to a recent OECD study [17].
Som vist i tabel 4 i betragtning 76 har de kinesiske eksporterende producenter eksporteret til EU-markedet primært fra 2012 og fremefter og vandt hurtigt markedsandele med import af varer til lave priser på bekostning af andre økonomiske aktører, herunder EU-producenterne.
The fact that the country concerned has a massive steel overcapacity is not challenged by the Chinese authorities: First, the Chinese State Council issued on 1 February 2016 an ‘Opinion for the steel industry to resolve excess capacity’ which lays down the overall Chinese approach for tackling more resolutely the overcapacity in the Chinese steel industry.
Tredjelandes absorptionskapacitet
Second, the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) also mentioned in its submission that ‘in the last few years the Chinese government and the Chinese steel association have taken effective measures…Since 2011 China has actively eliminated obsolete capacities and reinforced energy saving measures.
I overensstemmelse med grundforordningens artikel 3, stk. 9, andet afsnit, litra b), analyserede Kommissionen andre eksportmarkeders evne til at absorbere de kinesiske eksporterende producenters eventuelle yderligere udførsel.
[18]’
Nogle (store) eksportmarkeder bliver det sværere og sværere for de kinesiske eksporterende producenter at få adgang til på grund af handelsbeskyttelsesforanstaltninger (lande som USA, Malaysia, Indien og Mexico) og/eller undersøgelser (lande som Thailand) eller forhøjede toldafgifter (Sydafrika).
However, inconsistencies are recently reported between the above-mentioned Chinese announcement of capacity cuts in the post-investigation period and the actual situation, as follows:
Statistiske eksportdata — for 2015 og første halvår af 2016 — til en stikprøve [23] for KN-koder vedrørende samme vare — viser dog en status quo for den kinesiske eksport til resten af verden.
There are reports that the country concerned suffers from a phenomenon of ‘zombie’ steel mills [19]: these are mills that are forever said to be dying but never actually die.
Selv om der i øjeblikket er en status quo i den kinesiske eksport til andre tredjelande, forventes det attraktive EU-marked, som nævnt i betragtning 135, fortsat at være blandt de primære mål for kinesisk dumpingeksport.
Another source also reported that 41 blast furnaces have been reopened, and more recent reports even indicate that over 50 million tonnes of steel capacity has been restarted in the PRC since the start of 2016 [20].
Kinas absorptionskapacitet
The World Steel Association states the following on the world crude steel production for the first 6 months of 2016: ‘World crude steel production in the first six months of 2016 was 794,8 Mt, a decrease of – 1,9 % compared to the same period of 2015...
Der er ikke tilstrækkelig absorptionskapacitet i Kina.
Crude steel production … decreased by – 6,1 % in the EU 28… China's crude steel production for June 2016 was 69,5 Mt, an increase of 1,7 % compared to June 2015… [21]’
Efterspørgslen efter stål på det kinesiske hjemmemarked er faldende: Ifølge World Steel Association forventedes Kinas efterspørgsel efter stål først at falde med – 3,5 % i 2015 og med – 2,0 % i 2016, efter at den havde været på sit højeste i 2013 [24].
Finally, the Commission analysed the pledges and commitments of the Chinese authorities as mentioned in recital (128).
Tallene blev dog justeret efterfølgende af den samme organisation til følgende: faldet i Kinas efterspørgsel efter stål forventes at være på – 4 % i 2016 og på – 3 % i 2017.
Despite these announcements early 2016, they did not yet materialise.
Dette indikerer, at der vil være en efterspørgsel på 626,1 mio. ton stål (15 % lavere end i 2013) i 2017, hvilket er et fald på 41,9 % af den globale stålanvendelse, der var på 47,9 % i 2009 og på 44,8 % i 2015 [25].
As a result, it is considered that the issue of overcapacity in the steel sector in the PRC is widely-known and it is also acknowledged by the Chinese authorities.
Konklusion om kapacitet
The like product is assessed to be a large portion of the total crude steel production for the following reason: whereas the total Chinese crude steel production was 822000 million tonnes and 822698 million tonnes, the total Chinese production of hot-rolled flat products was 311564 million tonnes (or about 37,9 % of overall crude steel production) and 317387 million tonnes (or about 38,6 % of overall crude steel production) in respectively the years 2013 and 2014 [22].
Som konklusion er det sandsynligt, at betydelige mængder af den eksisterende massive overkapacitet af stål, herunder for samme vare, fortsat vil blive rettet mod EU-markedet.
Therefore, the above data on crude steel provide a good indication as well on the overcapacity of the like product in the PRC.
I løbet af den betragtede periode, som anført i betragtning 78, faldt det pågældende lands gennemsnitlige importpriser med 33 %, fra 600 EUR/ton i 2012 til 404 EUR/ton i 2015.
This is an indication of the enormous production capacity of the like product in the PRC.
I tabellen nedenfor sammenlignes de gennemsnitlige enhedspriser på importen fra Kina med enhedspriser hos de fem EU-producenter i stikprøven:
Third, the investigation confirmed that during the investigation period, the sampled Chinese exporting producers run on average, at a capacity utilisation rate of 65 %.
Tabel 15
This amounts to more than 14 million metric tonnes of freely disposable capacity of the product concerned amongst only three companies.
Salgspriser på det frie EU-marked sammenlignet med priserne på importen fra Kina i den betragtede periode
This is another indicator of the spare capacity of the like product.
Kilde: Spørgeskemabesvarelser fra EU-producenter i stikprøven og fra eksporterende producenter, samt Eurostat
Assuming similar ratios from other Chinese hot-rolled flat steel products (HRF) producers, a high total HRF spare capacity in China can be deducted.
Se betragtning
Furthermore, the Union market is an open market with a lot of imports from several countries, as shown in the table in recital (177).
De fem stikprøveudtagne EU-producenters salgspris (EUR/ton)
As shown in table 4 under recital (76), the Chinese exporting producers have been exporting to the Union market from mainly 2012 onwards and gaining rapidly market shares with low-priced imports at the expense of other economic actors, including the Union producers.
Gennemsnitsprisen for den kinesiske import ifølge Eurostat
This proves that penetration has proven relatively easy and very successful during the period considered for the Chinese exporting producers and is as such an indication of the attractiveness of the Union market for Chinese and other exporting producers.
(EUR/ton)
Absorption capacity of third countries
Forskel (EUR/ton)
In line with Article 3(9), 2nd subparagraph, lit (b) of the basic Regulation, the Commission analysed the availability of other export markets for the Chinese exporting producers to absorb any additional exports.
De gennemsnitlige kinesiske priser lå betydeligt højere end EU-producenternes priser i 2012.
Some (major) exporting markets are increasingly difficult to access for the Chinese exporting producers because of trade defence measures (countries such as the USA, Malaysia, India, and Mexico) and/or investigations (countries such as Thailand) or increased customs duties (South Africa).
Men i 2015 var priserne på den kinesiske import betydeligt lavere (404 EUR/ton) end EU-producenternes priser (427 EUR/ton).
Statistical export data — for 2015 and for the first six months of 2016 — for a sample [23] of CN codes concerning the like product — show though a status quo in Chinese export volumes to the rest of the world.
Det bekræftes af analysen af underbud i betragtning 82.
First, the country concerned exported about the same volumes during the first 6 months of 2016, if these figures were annualised and compared to 2015.
Følgende tabel viser en fortsat nedgang i de kinesiske enhedspriser i perioden efter undersøgelsesperioden (januar-juni 2016), når varerne indføres på EU-markedet.
Nevertheless, the average unit sales price was lower during the first 6 months of 2016 compared to 2015.
Tabel 16
Second, the loss of market share in some countries (such as Indonesia and Vietnam) during the first 6 months of 2016 compared to 2015 is compensated by a gain of market share in other countries (such as Bangladesh and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea).
Kinesiske importpriser i perioden efter undersøgelsesperioden
The Commission hence concluded that it is unlikely that third countries would absorb on their own the huge amount of freely disposable Chinese capacity.
Gennemsnitlig kinesisk importpris
Even if there is currently a status quo in Chinese exports to other third countries, the attractive Union market, as mentioned under recital (135) is likely to continue to be among the primary targets of Chinese dumped exports.
(EUR/ton)
Absorption capacity of the PRC
Januar 2016
There is no sufficient absorption capacity in the PRC either.
Februar 2016
The domestic demand in the PRC for steel is slowing down: According to the World Steel Association, China's steel demand was first expected to decrease by – 3,5 % in 2015 and – 2,0 % in 2016, following its demand peak in 2013.
Marts 2016
However, these figures were afterwards adjusted by the same organisation as follows: ‘the decline in steel demand in China is expected to be – 4,0 % in 2016 followed by – 3,0 % in 2017.
Maj 2016
This suggests a demand of 626,1 Mt steel (15 % down from 2013) for 2017, a contraction to 41,9 % of world steel use from 47,9 % in 2009 and 44,8 % in 2015’ [25].
Juni 2016
Conclusion on capacity
De lave priser på den kinesiske import har to negative virkninger:
In conclusion, it is likely that significant volumes of the existing massive excess capacity on steel, including the like product, will continue to be directed to the Union market.
den betydelige prisforskel vil sandsynligvis forårsage et (yderligere) skift i retning mod dumpingimporten, fordi brugerne vil være mere tilbøjelige til at købe større mængder af varer, der sælges til lave priser
The present overcapacities and the insufficient absorption capacity of third states or the PRC itself indicate the likelihood of substantially increased Chinese exports to the Union where penetration has proven relatively easy and very successful during the period considered.
derudover kan det forventes, at tilstedeværelsen af disse lave priser på markedet vil blive brugt af købere som et forhandlingsredskab til at presse priserne hos EU-producenter og andre kilder længere ned og dermed få en yderligere sænkende virkning i form af både faldende mængder og lavere priser.
Price level of imports
Denne indvirkning kan diskuteres i situationer, hvor prisforskellene ikke er væsentlige, men i nærværende tilfælde og i betragtning af det konstaterede prisunderbud forventes den deraf resulterende skade for EU-erhvervsgrenen at være alvorlig.
During the period considered, as set out in recital (78), average import prices from the country concerned decreased by 33 %, from 600 euro/tonne in 2012 to 404 euro/tonne in 2015.
Lagerbeholdningernes størrelse
The table below compares the average unit Chinese import prices with the unit sales prices of the five sampled Union producers:
Kommissionen fandt, at denne faktor ikke var særlig betydningsfuld for analysen, da det normalt er forhandlerne og ikke i så høj grad producenterne, der har lagrene.
Table 15
Desuden fremstiller EU-producenterne hovedsageligt efter ordre, hvilket gør dem i stand til at holde deres lagerbeholdninger på så lavt et niveau som muligt.
Sales prices on the free market in the Union compared to Chinese import prices during the period considered
Der blev konstateret et fald i lagerbeholdningerne, både i Kina og på EU-markedet [26] ved udgangen af undersøgelsesperioden.
See recital
Dette kan måske forklares i lyset af prisfaldet i 2015 og i 2016, for hvis en producent eller en forhandler forventer, at priserne vil stige, bør denne opbygge lagre hurtigt for at kunne opnå et proportionalt større overskud, når priserne stiger.
Sales price of the 5 sampled Union producers (EUR/tonne)
Kommissionen var ikke i stand til at finde omfattende oplysninger om perioden efter undersøgelsesperioden hvad angår lagre til trods for anmodninger herom samt egne undersøgelser.
Average price of Chinese imports according to Eurostat
Ikke desto mindre fandt Kommissionen at det var sandsynligt, at lagerbeholdningerne af den pågældende vare forbliver forholdsvis lav i EU i begyndelsen af 2016: Hvad angår eksempelvis Tyskland, så faldt lagerbeholdningerne af flade produkter af stål ved udgangen af sidste år til det laveste niveau siden december 2003 ifølge den tyske sammenslutning af stålforhandlere (BDS).
(EUR/tonne)
De seneste data viste en vis forbedring, men lagrene af flade produkter af stål var i februar på 1,4 mio. ton og var dermed fortsat 7 % lavere end på samme tidspunkt året før [27].
Difference (EUR/tonne)
For Kinas vedkommende faldt lagrene af stål i varelagrene i 40 større kinesiske byer angiveligt til 8,86 ton i slutningen af juni 2016, hvilket er en nedgang fra 9,47 ton i slutningen af maj 2016.
The average Chinese prices were substantially higher than the prices of Union producers in 2012.
Til sammenligning lå tallet på 12,86 ton ved slutningen af juni 2015.
However, in 2015, the prices of the Chinese imports became substantially lower (404 euro/tonne) than the prices of the Union industry (427 euro/tonne).
I maj 2016 udgjorde lagrene af stål for 80 større kinesiske stålværker 14,17 ton.
This is confirmed by the undercutting analysis in recital (82) above.
Til sammenligning lå tallet på 16,71 ton i slutningen af maj 2015 [28].
The following table shows a further continuing decrease of Chinese unit prices during the post-investigation period January — June 2016 when entering the Union market.
Som konklusion faldt lagerbeholdningerne af stål både ved udgangen af undersøgelsesperioden og i perioden efter undersøgelsesperioden.
Table 16
Selv om denne faktor ikke er afgørende for analysen, kan den indikere et muligt yderligere prisfald, hvilket øger truslen om skade.
Chinese import prices during the post-IP period
Andre forhold: Rentabilitet og ordretilgange i Unionen for EU-erhvervsgrenen
Average import prices of Chinese imports
EU-erhvervsgrenen har behov for bæredygtig fortjeneste.
(euro/tonne)
Denne skadesindikator er derfor meget vigtig.
January 2016
Ordretilgangen består af bekræftede tilsagn fra kunder, og den viser udviklingen i EU-erhvervsgrenens salg i de kommende måneder.
February 2016
Kommissionen var i stand til at indsamle og analysere data om fortjeneste og ordretilgange for både undersøgelsesperioden og perioden efter undersøgelsesperioden.
March 2016
Som anført i betragtning 113 begyndte EU-producenterne at rejse sig en smule igen i 2014 samt i de to første kvartaler af 2015, for så vidt angår rentabilitet.
April 2016
Som anført i betragtning 116 blev EU-rentabiliteten tabsgivende i det andet halvår af 2015 og faldt til det uholdbare niveau – 10 % i 4. kvartal af undersøgelsesperioden.
May 2016
For perioden efter undersøgelsesperioden var der ikke rentabilitetstal tilgængelige for hele EU-erhvervsgrenen endnu.
June 2016
Rentabilitetstallene blev dog indsamlet for klagerne, som tegner sig for ca. 90 % af EU-erhvervsgrenens samlede produktion, som nævnt i betragtning 62.
The negative effect of the low prices of the Chinese imports is found to be twofold:
Disse oplysninger vil blive opdateret efter offentliggørelsen af denne forordning, og om muligt vil andre faktorer også blive analyseret.
on the one hand, the significant price differential is likely to cause (further) a shift towards these dumped imports, because users will be more likely to buy increasing quantities of goods that are sold at low prices;
I denne fase af undersøgelsen var oplysningerne vedrørende rentabilitet og ordretilgangen de bedste foreliggende oplysninger.
on the other hand, the existence of such low prices in the market is likely to be used by buyers as a negotiating tool to depress the prices offered by the Union producers and other sources, thereby causing further a depressive effect in terms of both diminishing volumes and lower prices.
Som det fremgår af tabellen i betragtning 145 faldt de kinesiske eksportpriser yderligere i første halvår af 2016 og lå under EU-producenternes produktionsomkostninger.
While these effects can be questioned in situations where the price differentials are not substantial, in the case at stake, and considering the price undercutting found, the resulting damage to the Union industry is expected to be serious.
Dette viser en aggressiv kinesisk prisfastsættelse på EU-markedet, som EU-producenterne ikke kan klare i fremtiden.
Level of inventories
Dette bekræftes af tabellen nedenfor, som giver oplysninger om klagernes rentabilitet.
The Commission considered that this factor is not of any particular significance for the analysis because normally stocks are kept by traders (stockists) and not so much by producers.
Undersøgelsen viste en yderligere forværring af klagernes rentabilitet.
Furthermore, Union producers are mainly producing on order, enabling them to keep their inventory levels as low as possible.
Tabel 17
Nevertheless, it analysed this factor which is expressly mentioned in Article 3(9), second subparagraph, of the basic Regulation (see recital (120) above).
Udviklingen i klagernes rentabilitet og ordretilgang
Falling levels of stock were noted both in the PRC and on the Union market [26] at the end of the investigation period.
Kilde: Eurofer
This might be explained in the framework of the price decreases in 2015 and in 2016, as follows: if a producer or trader expects that prices would rise, it should be building up stocks rapidly expecting to make proportionally more profits when prices rise.
Periode
The Commission was unable to find comprehensive post-investigation period data on stocks despite requests and own researches.
April 2015 — marts 2016
It found it nevertheless likely that inventory levels of the product concerned remains rather low in the Union during early 2016: For instance, in Germany, ‘according to the German Association of Steel Distribution (BDS), at the end of last year flat steel inventories dropped to the lowest level since December 2003.
Rentabilitet
The latest data showed some improvement, but with flat steel stocks at 1,4 million tonnes in February, they remained 7 % lower year-on-year [27]’.
3 til – 5 %
In the PRC, steel inventories in the warehouses of 40 major Chinese cities reportedly decreased to 8,86 tonnes late June 2016 from 9,47 tonnes late May 2016, which compares to 12,86 tonnes late June 2015.
5 % til – 7 %
During the month of May 2016, the steel inventories of 80 major Chinese mills amounted to 14,17 tonnes, comparing to 16,71 tonnes late May 2015 [28].
Ordretilgang
In conclusion, steel inventories are decreasing both during the end of the investigation period and in the post-investigation period.
Ændring i omstændighederne, som kan forudses og er umiddelbart forestående
Although this factor is not decisive in the analysis, it might indicate a potential further decrease in prices reinforcing the threat of injury.
I grundforordningens artikel 3, stk. 9, hedder det: »Den ændring i omstændighederne, der vil kunne skabe en situation, hvor den pågældende dumping vil forvolde skade, skal klart have kunnet forudses og være umiddelbart forestående.«
Other elements: Profitability and order intakes in the Union by the Union industry
Alle ovennævnte faktorer er blevet undersøgt og efterprøvet hvad angår undersøgelsesperioden.
The Union industry needs sustainable profits.