natgillin/translations-raw huggingface dataset:
Derfor kan MEIP-ajourføringerne fra 2011 og 2012 ikke ændre en investeringsbeslutning, som ikke var i overensstemmelse med MEIP'en på det tidspunkt, hvor den blev truffet, til en fornuftig investeringsbeslutning.
In Stardust Marine the Court stated that, ‘[…] in order to examine whether or not the State has adopted the conduct of a prudent investor operating in a market economy, it is necessary to place oneself in the context of the period during which the financial support measures were taken in order to assess the economic rationality of the State’s conduct, and thus to refrain from any assessment based on a later situation’ [43].
Ajourføringerne kunne højst påvise, at de polske myndigheder kun handlede som en privat investor, hvis de kunne vise, at projektet, ved at der blev investeret yderligere midler, kunne give et afkast, der var tilstrækkeligt til at forrente den kapital, der var blevet og ville blive investeret (eller som var tilstrækkeligt til at forrente denne kapital selv under hensyntagen til risikoen for at skulle tilbagebetale ulovlig statsstøtte, som man havde modtaget tidligere).
Furthermore, the Court declared in the EDF case that, ‘[…] for the purposes of showing that, before or at the same time as conferring the advantage, the Member State took that decision as a shareholder, it is not enough to rely on economic evaluations made after the advantage was conferred, on a retrospective finding that the investment made by the Member State concerned was actually profitable, or on subsequent justifications of the course of action actually chosen’ [44].
Figur 3
In order to be able to apply the MEIP the Commission has to place itself at the time when each decision to finance the conversion of the former military airport into a civil aviation airport was taken.
Trafikprognoser for Gdynia lufthavn, som anvendes i MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 (i tusinder) Forventet passagerudvikling MEIP fra 2010)
The Commission must also base its assessment on the information and assumptions, which were at the disposal of the public shareholders at the time, when the decision regarding the financial arrangements of the investment project was taken.
Antal passagerer
The Commission considers that in order to determine whether the municipalities of Gdynia and Kosakowo acted as a private investor, the first relevant analysis is the 2010 MEIP study.
Den årlige tilbagediskonterede pengestrøm ville blive positiv fra 2020, hvilket illustreres af nedenstående figur (figur 4).
Indeed, the assessment of whether State intervention is in line with market conditions should be carried out on the basis of an ex-ante analysis, considering information and data available at the time the investment was decided upon.
Men på et kumulativt grundlag (dvs. efter aggregering af de foregående års pengestrømme hvert år) ventes den samlede DCF for hele perioden 2010-2040 at være negativ (som vist i figur 1).
The Commission observes that up to 2010, studies and preparatory works for the investment project in question were carried out.
DCF i 000 PLN (MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010) (…) Kilde: baseret på MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010.
These included the Master Plan of the investment project, the environmental report, the design documentation of the general aviation terminal, the design documentation of the administration building and the fire brigade building, specialist aviation documents and other studies.
MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 giver en positiv egenkapitalværdi [47] på […] mio. PLN (dvs. omkring […] mio. EUR).
That shows that the investors took the decision to develop the Gdynia airport before 2010.
Desuden er investeringsprojektets IRR på […] % højere end de forudsete kapitalomkostninger for lufthavnsselskabet ([…] %).
Gdynia and Kosakowo took several preliminary measures in order to implement the project (see recital 10 above) and specific studies were commissioned with that purpose.
Kommissionen bemærker, at den centrale drivkraft for de fremtidige pengestrømme for lufthavnsselskabet i Gdynia er den forventede indtægt, der vil afhænge af passagertallene og størrelsen af de lufthavnsafgifter, som flyselskaberne betaler.
Moreover, as argued by Poland in 2010 the public shareholders of the airport manager had finalised the preparations for the investment project at stake.
Som det fremgår af ovenstående data, er lavprisselskaber og charterflyvninger hovedindtægtskilden i de fleste af de år, som prognosen vedrører.
In the same year, the public shareholders increased the company’s share capital to PLN 6,05 million (around EUR 1,5 million) in view of implementing that investment project.
Men som det vil blive forklaret nærmere nedenfor, stammer størstedelen af indtægterne i Gdansk lufthavn også fra lavprisselskaber og charterflyvninger (se betragtning 121).
The main investments in fixed assets (such as the construction of the general aviation terminal) were expected to start in 2011, but effectively started in 2012.
I forbindelse med efterspørgslen fra passagerer og flyselskaber bemærker Kommissionen, at Gdynia lufthavn ville have samme opland som Gdansk lufthavn, som kun ligger omkring 25 km fra Gdynia.
The Commission believes that any private investor would have assessed at that moment the expected profitability of the project.
Tidsplanen for denne udvidelse var allerede offentligt kendt i 2010, dvs. på tidspunktet for udarbejdelsen af MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 [48].
Capital Injections
Desuden blev der også anmeldt offentlig finansiering til udvidelsen af Gdansk til en kapacitet på 5 millioner passagerer til Kommissionen den 24. september 2008 under statsstøttesag nr. N472/08, og støtten blev godkendt af Kommissionen den 5. februar 2009 [49].
With respect to capital injections, the Commission notes that the first important capital injection of PLN 4,4 million was decided on 29 July 2010 (almost quadrupling the existing capital of PLN 1,7 million), right after the 2010 MEIP study of 16 July 2010 was finalized.
Polen informerede Kommissionen om, at masterplanen for Gdansk lufthavn, der blev udarbejdet i 2010 [50], giver mulighed for udvidelse af start- og landingsbaner, forpladser og anden lufthavnsinfrastruktur, som ville betyde, at Gdansk lufthavn fremover ville kunne håndtere mere end 10 millioner passagerer om året.
In addition, the agreement on the further capital injections (until 2040) to finance the conversion project (mentioned above in recital 33) was signed in March 2011 (even before the finalization of the second MEIP study of 13 May 2011).
Kommissionen bemærker endvidere, at Gdansk lufthavn i 2010 håndterede 2,2 millioner passagerer (dvs. den udnyttede 45 % af sin kapacitet, inklusive den kapacitet, der var under opførelse).
Moreover, at the same time also the operational agreement with the military user of the airport (7 March 2011) and the rental agreement for the land of the company (11 March 2011 (mentioned above in recital 33)) were concluded.
Ifølge prognoserne for Gdansk lufthavn vil kun 50 til 60 % af den tilgængelige kapacitet blive udnyttet i 2020 [51].
The Commission also underlines that Poland confirmed that the capital injection decided on 29 July 2010 was based on the economic assessment of the project contained in the 2010 MEIP study.
Disse prognoser tager ikke hensyn til opstarten af aktiviteter i Gdynia lufthavn (dvs. man formoder, at hele efterspørgslen fra oplandet vil blive opfyldt af Gdansk lufthavn).
It is therefore clear that at this stage the public shareholders had resolved to engage in the investment project in question to be realised over 30 years.
Kommissionen bemærker, at Gdansk lufthavn vil kunne opfylde efterspørgslen i regionen i lang tid fremover, dvs. mindst frem til 2030, selvom man forudsætter en dynamisk vækst i passagertrafikken.
Even though it is possible for a private investor to adjust its investment plan in the course of its implementation in the light of changing circumstances, it is clear that any private investor would have assessed the merits of the investment project at hand already in 2010 before starting to put substantial resources in it.
Som angivet ovenfor forventes det i MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 for Gdynia lufthavn, at størstedelen af dens indtægter (gennemsnitligt [80-90] % for hele perioden 2012-2040) vil stamme fra lavprisselskaber og charterflyselskaber.
By the time the first update of the MEIP was conducted in 2011, the public shareholders had already injected PLN 6,05 million into the company (see Table 3).
I denne forbindelse bemærker Kommissionen ligeledes, at Gdansk lufthavn også hovedsagelig håndterer lavprisselskaber og chartertrafik.
The company had already leased the land of the airport from Kosakowo (the rental agreement between Gdynia-Kosakowo Airport Ltd and Kosakowo was signed on 11 March 2011) and also had signed the operational agreement with the military user of the airport (7 March 2011).
Kommissionen bemærker imidlertid, at taksterne i Gdansk lufthavn også omfatter forskellige rabatter, bl.a. på lavprisselskabers flyvninger.
In the 2012 MEIP study, the investments in fixed assets are divided into 4 phases.
Gdansk lufthavn anvender en reduceret passagerafgift på 24 PLN/PAX (6 EUR) for alle nye forbindelser (pr. 1. januar 2004) og for alle forøgelser af hyppigheden, der omfatter et fly med en MTOW på mellem 50 og 100 t (f.eks. Airbus A320 og Boeing 737 og andre fly, som benyttes af lavprisselskaber).
The first phase of the investment project concerned the design work but also the site clearing (tree and shrub clearing, demolishment of certain hangars and ground levelling).
Herefter anvendes der en passende rabat.
According to the information submitted by Poland, the capital expenditures in 2012 amount to PLN […] million (of which more than half had already been spent by the time the updated 2012 study was undertaken).
Under hensyntagen til de anvendte rabatter i Gdansk lufthavn mener Kommissionen, at de planlagte gennemsnitlige lufthavnsafgifter i Gdynia lufthavn var betydeligt højere end i den etablerede nabolufthavn.
The graph below (Figure 2) shows the (nominal) capex by investment phase as presented in the 2012 MEIP study.
Ved at anvende de pågældende lufthavnsafgifter vil Gdynia lufthavn som en ny aktør på markedet ikke kunne tiltrække særlig store trafikmængder, når der findes en etableret lufthavn med ledig kapacitet i samme opland, der anvender lavere nettoafgifter for nye forbindelser samt ved forøgelse af kapaciteten for eksisterende forbindelser.
Figure 2
Eftersom både Gdynia lufthavn og Gdansk lufthavn især ville fokusere på lavprisselskaber og charterflyselskaber, eftersom Gdansk lufthavn ikke udnytter sin fulde kapacitet, eftersom de faktiske afgifter er lavere end dem, der findes i forretningsplanen for Gdynia, og grundet den korte afstand mellem de to lufthavne, mener Kommissionen også, at formodningen om, at der ikke vil opstå priskonkurrence mellem de to lufthavne, er fejlagtig.
Capex by Phase (2012 MEIP study)
I lyset af ovenstående mener Kommissionen, at eftersom der ligger en anden lufthavn uden trængselsproblemer tæt på, som følger den samme forretningsmodel, forekommer lufthavnsafgifterne i MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010, som er højere end dem, der gælder i Gdansk og i andre regionale lufthavne i nærheden, urealistiske.
Furthermore, the Commission cannot retroactively take into account the expected additional sources of revenues, based on the information provided in November 2013, in order to justify the decisions taken by the public shareholders in 2010 and 2011.
I lyset af konkurrencesituationen for Gdynia lufthavn mener Kommissionen, at trafikprognoserne i MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 er baseret på urealistiske antagelser.
Hence, in the light of the foregoing, the Commission considers that in order to assess whether Gdynia and Kosakowo adopted the conduct of a private investor operating in a market economy, it must base first of all its assessment on the 2010 MEIP study and disregard any further developments and information that were not at the disposal of those public shareholders at the time when they took their decision to realise the investment project in question.
Det skal også bemærkes, at MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 hverken omfattede en følsomhedsanalyse eller en vurdering af de sandsynlige resultater (f.eks. det værst tænkelige scenario, det bedst tænkelige scenario og et basisscenario).
On the other hand, the 2011 MEIP study and the 2012 MEIP study assessed only the amendments to the initial decision to embark in the investment project that was taken in 2010 on the basis of the 2010 MEIP study.
Kommissionen bemærker, at et fald i de årlige indtægter fra passagerafgifter i forbindelse med lavprisselskaber og chartertrafik på blot […] % (i prognoseperioden 2010-2040) resulterer i en negativ egenkapital for de offentlige aktionærer.
The two subsequent studies show that the shareholders were following market developments and were accordingly adapting the scope of the project (either upwards or downwards depending on the investment item).
Et sådant fald i indtægter ville opstå, hvis afgifterne og/eller trafikken er lavere end antaget.
However, those changes were only marginal relative to the overall decision to convert the military base into a civil aviation airport.
I denne henseende er det værd at bemærke, at lufthavnsafgifterne i forretningsplanen, der ligger til grund for MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010, allerede er[…] % højere end i Gdansk lufthavn [54].
The graph below (Figure 3) shows the capital expenditures as presented in the 2010, 2011 and 2012 MEIP studies (expressed in 2010 real terms).
I denne forbindelse er det særdeles usandsynligt, at Gdynia lufthavn ville kunne tiltrække trafik uden at yde en betydelig rabat på afgiften på 40 PLN (10 EUR), som står angivet i forretningsplanen.
As can be seen, while the timing and extent of the investments were updated both in 2011 and 2012, these changes were not substantial regarding the overall size of the project.
NNV's store følsomhed over for en tilsyneladende marginal nedbringelse af lufthavnsafgifterne (som er baseret på realistiske antagelser) sår derfor en høj grad af tvivl om troværdigheden af den oprindelige forretningsplan.
In 2010, the real capex was estimated at about PLN […] million and this figure was […] to about PLN […] million in both 2011 and 2012 (i.e. […] % over an investment period of almost 20 years).
Mens MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 var baseret på de på daværende tidspunkt tilgængelige trafikprognoser, og man ikke bør anvende efterfølgende oplysninger til at foretage en direkte vurdering af MEIP-undersøgelsen, bemærker Kommissionen ikke desto mindre, at disse prognoser var overoptimistiske.
In substance, in the present case the Commission has to assess a series of investment decisions taken over a short period of time, which is not characterised by the occurrence of unforeseeable events, by the same public shareholders, for the implementation of essentially the same investment project.
En sammenligning af trafikprognoserne for 2010 og 2012 viser betydelige forskelle.
Therefore, the 2011 and the 2012 MEIP update cannot transform an investment decision that did not comply with the MEIP at the moment it was taken, into a reasonable investment decision.
Der var ikke kun forsinkelser i forbindelse med opstarten af projektet, men derudover blev trafikprognoserne i løbet af den »positive EBITDA«-periode reduceret med […] til […] % pr. år.
At best they could demonstrate that the Polish authorities behaved as a private investor, only if they would show that, by investing additional funds, the project was expected to yield a return capable of adequately remunerating the capitals already invested and to be invested (or that would appropriately remunerate those capitals even when taking into account the risk of having to repay any illegal aid received in the past).
En korrektion af en sådan størrelsesorden og uden større ændringer af omstændighederne er udtryk for en nyttig realitetsvurdering af de oprindelige antagelser.
Figure 3
Den illustrerer yderligere, at de følsomhedsanalyser, som Kommissionen har foretaget (som er marginale i sammenligningen), er særligt sigende med hensyn til den urealistiske karakter af de antagelser, der ligger til grund for konklusionen om, at projektet var levedygtigt.
Capex (in 1000 PLN) as projected in MEIP studies of 2010, 2011 and 2012 (in 2010 real terms)
Tabel 6
The application of the MEIP on the basis of the 2010 MEIP study
Sammenligning af passagertrafikprognoser, som anvendes i MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 og MEIP-ajourføringen fra 2012
The 2010 MEIP study, provided by Poland, is based on a business plan projecting the future cash flows for the equity investors for the period 2010–2040.
Pax i alt i MBP-undersøgelsen fra 2010
At the time when the MEIP study was conducted, Poland expected that the airport would start serving general aviation traffic in 2011, charter flights in 2013 and LCCs in 2015.
Pax i alt i MBP-undersøgelsen fra 2012
This would result in a steady increase in the number of passenger served from […] passengers in 2013 up to almost […] million in 2024 and 1,753 million in 2040 as shown in Table 5 below).
Forskel
Table 5
Yderligere følsomhedsanalyser viser, at projektet ville blive urentabelt, hvis de samlede indtægter var blot […] % lavere om året i hele prognoseperioden, eller hvis indtægterne var […] % lavere, og driftsudgifterne var […] % højere.
Traffic projections for Gdynia airport used in the 2010 MEIP study (in thousands)
Investeringens rentabilitet er derfor særdeles følsom over for marginale ændringer i de grundlæggende antagelser.
Expected passenger development (2010 MEIT)
De følsomhedsanalyser, som Kommissionen har foretaget, virker så meget desto mere fornuftige, for mindre end et år efter MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 modtog de polske myndigheder en ajourført analyse, der viste, at projektets NNV ville være betydeligt lavere og kun ville udgøre […] mio. PLN (omkring […] EUR).
According to the 2010 MEIP study, the company would be profitable at EBITDA level as from 2018.
I maj 2001 blev projektets NNV derfor reduceret med […] % i forhold til det oprindelige projekt.
The annual discounted cash flow would become positive as of 2020 as illustrated in the graph below (Figure 4).
Kommissionen bemærker desuden, at de positive resultater af MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 også i høj grad afhænger af investeringens terminalværdi ved udgangen af den periode, der er omfattet af forretningsplanen (dvs. i 2040).
However, on a cumulative basis (i.e. in each year the cash flows of the previous years), the total DCF over the entire period 2010-2040 is expected to be negative (as illustrated in Figure 1).
Selskabets tilbagediskonterede pengestrøm for perioden 2010-2040 er negativ og udgør (-[…] mio. PLN).
In other words, the positive cash flows expected to be generated as of 2018 are not high enough to compensate for the highly negative cash flows of the early investment periods.
Den tilbagediskonterede terminalværdi pr. 30. juni 2010 udgør […] mio. PLN.
Figure 4
Terminalværdien var baseret på antagelser om, at den årlige vækstrate for investeringens pengestrøm efter 2040 ville udgøre […] %.
DCF in 1000 PLN (2010 MEIP study)
I henhold til standardpraksis bør en virksomheds vækstrate ikke være højere end vækstraten i den økonomi, hvor den opererer (dvs. målt som BNP-vækst).
Based on the 2010 MEIP study.
Terminalværdien beregnes faktisk på et tidspunkt, hvor virksomheden forventes at blive moden, og når virksomhedens periode med kraftig vækst er overstået.
After 2040, it was expected that the airport manager would grow forever at a stable growth rate of the free cash flow of […] %.
I sine bemærkninger anførte Polen ikke grundlaget for beregningen af den langsigtede vækstrate på […] %, men man forklarede, at den langsigtede vækstrate er en nominel vækstrate.
The discounted Terminal Value amounts to PLN […] million.
Så valget af en nominel vækstrate på […] % for Gdynia lufthavn kunne ved første øjekast synes at være i overensstemmelse med de på daværende tidspunkt foreliggende oplysninger og med den normale praksis for valg af en vækstrate, der er lavere end vækstraten for økonomien.
The 2010 MEIP study results in a positive equity value [47] of PLN […] million (that is, around EUR […] million).
Men ved at vælge en langsigtet vækstrate, der ligger over inflationen (der blev anslået til 2,5 % i april 2010), går man i forretningsplanen ud fra, at lufthavnen ville fortsætte med at vokse hvert år efter 2040.
The IRR for the investment project equals to […] % and it is higher than the assumed cost of capital of the airport manager ([…] %).
Tabel 7
The Commission notes that key value drivers of the future cash flows of the manager of Gdynia airport are the expected revenues, which will be determined by the number of passengers and the level of airport charges paid by the airlines.
Data og prognoser vedrørende BNP og inflation fra IMF i april 2010
The revenues from LCC and charter flights (passenger, landing, parking fees) account, in the 2010 MEIP study for [80 - 90] % of all revenues in 2040 and on the average for [80 - 90] % of all revenues in the whole assessed period 2010 to 2040.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 (hentet på http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm).
The Commission notes that this mere fact contradicts the statements by Poland that the activities of Gdynia airport would be complementary to those of Gdansk airport given that Gdynia would focus on general aviation activities.
% GDP-vækst
In fact, as shown by the figures presented above, the main source of revenues in most of the projection years comes from LCC and charter flights.
% GDP-vækst
However, as it will be further explained below, also the vast majority of Gdansk airport revenues come from LCC and charter flights (see recital 121).
Desuden bemærker Kommissionen, at opgaven med at fastslå den mest hensigtsmæssige vækstrate er mere kompliceret, og at usikkerheden er så meget desto større i dette tilfælde på grund af den særligt lange prognoseperiode og den fjerne dato, for hvilken terminalværdien blev beregnet.
In the context of passenger’s and air carriers’ demand, the Commission observes that Gdynia airport would have the same catchment area as Gdansk airport, located only around 25 kilometres from Gdynia airport.
Prognoser for væksten i BNP går faktisk sjældent længere end en tidshorisont på fem år, mens modellen i dette tilfælde skulle forudsige en rimelig vækstrate for lufthavnen, efter at den har været i drift i 30 år.
Gdansk airport was extended in 2012 to serve up to 5 million passengers and a further extension to serve up to 7 million passengers is foreseen for 2015.
Dette viser, at en forsigtig investor vil have foretaget en række følsomhedsanalyser.
This extension schedule was publicly known already in 2010, i.e. at the time of preparation the 2010 MEIP study [48].
I denne henseende er det værd at bemærke, at man i de efterfølgende ajourføringer af den oprindelige forretningsplan reducerede den stabile vækstrate fra […] % til […] %.
Moreover, the public funding for the extension of Gdansk to the capacity of 5 million passengers was also notified to the Commission on 24 September 2008 under the State aid case no N472/08 and was approved by the Commission on 5 February 2009 [49].
Polen har imidlertid ikke fremlagt nogen præcis forklaring på denne reduktion.
Poland informed the Commission that the Master Plan for Gdansk airport prepared in 2010 [50] foresees the extension of the runway, aprons and other airport infrastructure that would allow serving more than 10 million passengers per annum at Gdansk airport in the future.
Terminalværdien er en funktion af den formodede varige stabile vækstrate, men også af de forventede afkast i løbet af perioden med stabil vækst.
The Commission further observes that in 2010 Gdansk airport served 2,2 million passengers (i.e. used 45 % of its capacity, including the capacity under construction).
Kommissionen foretog en række følsomhedsanalyser, der bekræftede, at konklusionen i MEIP-undersøgelsen fra 2010 er særdeles følsom over for mindre og realistiske ændringer i de grundlæggende antagelser.
According to the forecasts provided for Gdansk airport only 50 to 60 % of the available capacity will be used by 2020 [51].