nasa-gesdisc/es-publications-researchareas huggingface dataset:
Re-entry prediction and demisability analysis for the atmospheric disposal of geosynchronous satellites (2021)

The paper presents a re-entry analysis of Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) satellites on disposal trajectories that enhance the effects of the Earth oblateness and lunisolar perturbations. These types of trajectories can lead to a natural re-entry of the spacecraft within 20 years. An analysis was performed to characterise the entry conditions for these satellites and the risk they can pose for people on the ground if disposal via re-entry is used. The paper first proposes a methodology to interface the long-term propagation used to study the evolution of the disposal trajectories and the destructive re-entry simulations used to assess the spacecraft casualty risk. This is achieved by revisiting the concept of overshoot boundary. The paper also presents the demisability and casualty risk analysis for a representative spacecraft configuration, showing that the casualty risk is greater than the 104 threshold and that further actions should be taken to improve the compliance of these satellites in case disposal via re-entry is used.

Research areas: Validation
Long-range aerosol transport and impacts on size-resolved aerosol composition in Metro Manila, Philippines (2020)

Abstract. This study analyzes long-range transport of aerosol and aerosol chemical characteristics based on instances of high- and low-aerosol-loading events determined via ground-based size-resolved aerosol measurements collected at the Manila Observatory in Metro Manila, Philippines, from July to October 2018. Multiple data sources, including models, remote sensing, and in situ measurements, are used to analyze the impacts of long-range aerosol transport on Metro Manila and the conditions at the local and synoptic scales facilitating this transport. Through the use of case studies, evidence of long-range transport of biomass burning aerosol and continental emissions is identified in Metro Manila. Long-range transport of biomass burning aerosol from the Maritime Continent, bolstered by southwesterly flow and permitted by low rainfall, was identified through model results and the presence of biomass burning tracers (e.g., K, Rb) in the ground-based measurements. The impacts of emissions transported from continental East Asia on the aerosol characteristics in Metro Manila are also identified; for one of the events analyzed, this transport was facilitated by the nearby passage of a typhoon. Changes in the aerosol size distributions, water-soluble chemical composition, and contributions of various organic aerosol species to the total water-soluble organic aerosol were examined for the different cases. The events impacted by biomass burning transport had the overall highest concentration of water-soluble organic acids, while the events impacted by long-range transport from continental East Asia showed high percent contributions from shorter-chain dicarboxylic acids (i.e., oxalate) that are often representative of photochemical and aqueous processing in the atmosphere. The low-aerosol-loading event was subject to a larger precipitation accumulation than the high-aerosol events, indicative of wet scavenging as an aerosol sink in the study region. This low-aerosol event was characterized by a larger relative contribution from supermicrometer aerosols and had a higher percent contribution from longer-chain dicarboxylic acids (i.e., maleate) to the water-soluble organic aerosol fraction, indicating the importance of both primary aerosol emissions and local emissions.

Research areas: Air Quality
Mapping and estimating the total living biomass and carbon in low-biomass woodlands using Landsat 8 CDR data (2016)

A functional forest carbon measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) system to support climate change mitigation policies, such as REDD+, requires estimates of forest biomass carbon, as an input to estimate emissions. A combination of field inventory and remote sensing is expected to provide those data. By linking Landsat 8 and forest inventory data, we (1) developed linear mixed effects models for total living biomass (TLB) estimation as a function of spectral variables, (2) developed a 30 m resolution map of the total living carbon (TLC), and (3) estimated the total TLB stock of the study area. Inventory data consisted of tree measurements from 500 plots in 63 clusters in a 15,700 km2 study area, in miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The Landsat 8 data comprised two climate data record images covering the inventory area.

Research areas: Land Surface/Agriculture Indicators
Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon's urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes (2017)

Our overarching goal was to develop and utilize an observation-based analysis framework to assess interactions between climate and mosaics of land use, land cover and urbanization on regional carbon, water, and energy dynamics, and potential changes associated with land management and climate. Carbon, water and energy cycling was quantified for the range of current and potential land uses under present and future climates. The study region of Oregon has a strong climatic gradient from the coastal mesic forests (2500mm ppt) to the Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, and the Northern Great Basin semi-arid cold desert to the east (300 mm). The study was focused on the effects of (1) conversion of semi-arid sagebrush and Willamette Valley agricultural crops to bioenergy production; (2) afforestation of idle land and rangelands deemed suitable for forests or poplar crops under future climate conditions. We found that net ecosystem production (NEP), the net of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration, was 10 times higher in the high biomass forests of the Coast Range compared with drier regions like sagebrush in the Northern Great Basin, which was nearly zero (Schmidt et al. 2016). The state total NEP averaged about 30 teragrams carbon (Tg C) per year for the years 2012 to 2014 using our model framework that we developed for predictions of current and future NEP, and compared well with our detailed inventory estimates (28 Tg C annual average for 2011-2015 for forests only; Law et al. 2017). Running our model framework until the year 2050, we found that climate alone only increased NEP by less than 1 Tg C per decade (~3%) using the current trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions, however, changes are expected to be more rapid in subsequent years. We evaluated the possibility of land use change from grass seed crops to poplar for bioenergy, which slightly increased NEP by 2050. The most important variable for carbon sequestration estimates (net carbon sources and sinks) is net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), which accounts for NEP and losses associated with harvest removals and wildfire emissions. Here, we focus on forests because they have the largest effect on carbon sequestration. We found that NECB in Oregon averaged 18.8 Tg C per year in 2011-2015, offsetting fossil fuel emissions (16 Tg C per year). Annual fire emissions reducing NECB by about 5% (0.97 Tg C per year) in the state. The mesic Coast Range and West Cascades ecoregions that make up the western third of Oregon account for 60% of the forest NECB. This analysis illustrates that annual emissions from forests disturbances are low relative to annual fossil fuel emissions for the same area (Law et al. 2017, Hudiburg et al. in review).

Research areas: Habitat Conversion/Fragmentation
The burning question: does fire affect habitat selection and forage (2020)

Abstract
            
              The conservation of threatened species requires information on how management activities influence habitat quality. The Critically Endangered black rhinoceros
              Diceros bicornis
              is restricted to savannahs representing c. 5% of its historical range. Fire is used extensively in savannahs but little is known about how rhinos respond to burning. Our aim was to understand rhino responses to fire by studying habitat selection and foraging at multiple scales. We used resource selection functions and locations of 31 rhinos during 20142016 to study rhino habitat use in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Rhino selectivity was quantified by comparing forage consumption to plant species availability in randomly sampled vegetation plots; rhino diets were subsequently verified through DNA metabarcoding analysis of faecal samples. Rhino habitat use was a unimodal function of fire history, with highly occupied sites having fire frequencies of < 0.6 fires/year and maximum occupancy occurring at a fire frequency of 0.1 fires/year. Foraging stations had characteristic plant communities, with 17 species associated with rhino foraging. Rhinos were associated with, and disproportionately consumed, woody plants, forbs and legumes, all of which decreased in abundance with increasing fire frequency. In contrast to common management practices, multiple lines of evidence suggest that the current fire regime in the Serengeti negatively influences rhino habitat use and foraging and that frequent fire limits access of rhinos to preferred forage. We outline a conceptual model to guide managers and conservationists in the use of fire under variable habitat conditions.

Research areas: Ecosystems, Wildfires
Impact of biomass burning and stratospheric intrusions in the remote South Pacific Ocean troposphere (2022)

Abstract. The ozone mixing ratio spatiotemporal variability in the pristine South Pacific Ocean is studied, for the first time, using 21-year-long ozone (O3) records from the entire southern tropical and subtropical Pacific between 1994 and 2014. The analysis considered regional O3 vertical observations from ozonesondes, surface carbon monoxide (CO) observations from flasks, and three-dimensional chemistry-transport model simulations of the global troposphere. Two 21-year-long numerical simulations, with and without biomass burning emissions, were performed to disentangle the importance of biomass burning relative to stratospheric intrusions for ambient ozone levels in the region. Tagged tracers of O3 from the stratosphere and CO from various biomass burning regions have been used to track the impact of these different regions on the southern tropical Pacific O3 and CO levels. Patterns have been analyzed based on atmospheric dynamics variability. Considering the interannual variability in the observations, the model can capture the observed ozone gradients in the troposphere with a positive bias of 7.5 % in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) as well as near the surface. Remarkably, even the most pristine region of the global ocean is affected by distant biomass burning emissions by convective outflow through the mid and high troposphere and subsequent subsidence over the pristine oceanic region. Therefore, the biomass burning contribution to tropospheric CO levels maximizes in the UTLS. The Southeast Asian open fires have been identified as the major contributing source to CO from biomass burning in the tropical South Pacific, contributing on average for the study period about 8.5 and 13 ppbv of CO at Rapa Nui and Samoa, respectively, at an altitude of around 12 km during the burning season in the spring of the Southern Hemisphere. South America is the second-most important biomass burning source region that influences the study area. Its impact maximizes in the lower troposphere (6.5 ppbv for Rapa Nui and 3.8 ppbv for Samoa). All biomass burning sources contribute about 1523 ppbv of CO at Rapa Nui and Samoa and account for about 25 % of the total CO in the entire troposphere of the tropical and subtropical South Pacific. This impact is also seen on tropospheric O3, to which biomass burning O3 precursor emissions contribute only a few ppbv during the burning period, while the stratospheretroposphere exchange is the most important source of O3 for the mid troposphere of the South Pacific Ocean, contributing about 1520 ppbv in the subtropics.

Research areas: Air Quality
Quantifying the WaterCarbonSulfur Nexus for Coal Power Plants in China (2022)

China has implemented strict policies for the installation of desulfurization facilities in coal power plants in order to mitigate their negative environmental and human health impacts. However, it is rarely acknowledged that desulfurization processes lead to increased water consumption and carbon emissions from the coal power sector. By using a bottom-up approach, we quantified that the desulfurization facilities in all of Chinas coal power plants together avoided emissions of 29.52 Mt of SO2 in 2014, with expenses of 550.26 million m3 of increased water consumption, and 53.28 Mt of additional CO2 emissions. Such conflicts were especially pronounced in the North China Grid, where 9.77 Mt of SO2 emission reductions were realized at expenses of 132.15 million m3 of water consumption, and 14.25 Mt of CO2 emissions. The provinces in the North China Grid were already facing extreme water scarcity. Furthermore, while more than 90% of Chinas coal power plants have installed desulfurization facilities, the application of full desulfurization would further reduce the greatest amount of SO2 emissions with the smallest amounts of additional water consumption and carbon emissions in the Northwest Grid. Replacing all wet desulfurization facilities with dry ones saves 498.38 million m3 of water consumption in total, and reduces 26.65 Mt of CO2 emissions; however, this is at an expense of 14.33 Mt of SO2 emissions. These conflicts are most pronounced in Shanxi Province in the North Grid, and in Guangdong Province in the South Grid.

Research areas: Energy Production/Use
Assessing the potential for unaccounted emissions from bioenergy and the implications for forests: The United States and global (2022)

Development of the bioenergy sector is being actively pursued in many countries as a means to reduce climate change and fulfill international climate agreements such as the Paris Agreement. Although biomass for energy production (especially wood pellets) can replace carbon‑intensive fossil fuels, its net greenhouse gas impact varies, and the production of wood pellets can also lead to intensification in forest harvests and reduction of forest carbon stocks. Additionally, under specific conditions, emissions associated with imported biomass feedstocks may be omitted from national accounts, due to incompatibilities in accounting approaches. We assessed the risks and potential scale of emissions omitted from accounts (EOA) among key trading regions, focusing on the demand for wood pellets under different levels of climate mitigation targets. Our results suggest that the global production of wood pellets would grow from 38.9 to 120 Mton/year between 2019 and 2050 in a scenario that limits global mean temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels. A large portion of this occurs in North America (36.8 Mton/year by 2050), Europe (47.6 Mton/year by 2050), and Asia (23.3 Mton/year by 2050). We estimate that in a 1.5°C scenario, global EOA associated with international trade of wood pellets has the potential to reach 23.81 MtCO2eq/year by 2030 and 69.52 MtCO2eq/year in 2050. Emissions resulting from European biomass energy production, based on wood pellet imports from the United States, may reach 11.68 MtCO2eq/year by 2030 and 33.57 MtCO2eq/year in 2050. The production of wood pellet feedstocks may also present a substantial carbon price arbitrage opportunity for bioenergy producers through a conjunction of two distinct GHG accounting rules. If this opportunity is realized, it could accelerate the growth of the bioenergy industry to levels that harm forests' function as a carbon sink and omit actual emissions in national and global accounting frameworks.We quantify and map regional flows of wood pellets under a range of mitigation scenarios. We find that demand for bioenergy will vary widely under different climate mitigation scenarios, with more ambitious pathways driving higher global demand, more intense forest harvest, and a potential reduction in forest carbon sequestration in the U.S. Southeast, a key supply region. Additionally, differences in carbon accounting among countries could encourage arbitrage by bioenergy producers, with the potential to inflate the industry to levels that diminish the forest carbon sink and lead to underestimates of global emissions.

Research areas: Energy Production/Use
A quadcopter unmanned aerial system (UAS)-based methodology for measuring biomass burning emission factors (2022)

Abstract. Biomass burning (BB) emits large quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols that impact the climate and adversely affect human health. Although much research has focused on quantifying BB emissions on regional to global scales, field measurements of BB emission factors (EFs) are sparse, clustered and indicate high spatio-temporal variability. EFs are generally calculated from ground or aeroplane measurements with respective potential biases towards smouldering or flaming combustion products. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have the potential to measure BB EFs in fresh smoke, targeting different parts of the plume at relatively low cost. We propose a light-weight UAS-based method to measure EFs for carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as PM2.5 (TSI Sidepak AM520) and equivalent black carbon (eBC, microAeth AE51) using a combination of a sampling system with Tedlar bags which can be analysed on the ground and with airborne aerosol sensors. In this study, we address the main challenges associated with this approach: (1) the degree to which a limited number of samples is representative for the integral smoke plume and (2) the performance of the lightweight aerosol sensors. While aerosol measurements can be made continuously in a UAS set-up thanks to the lightweight analysers, the representativeness of our Tedlar bag filling approach was tested during prescribed burning experiments in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. We compared fire-averaged EFs from UAS-sampled bags for savanna fires with integrated EFs from co-located mast measurements. Both measurements matched reasonably well with linear R2 ranging from 0.81 to 0.94. Both aerosol sensors are not factory calibrated for BB particles and therefore require additional calibration. In a series of smoke chamber experiments, we compared the lightweight sensors with high-fidelity equipment to empirically determine specific calibration factors (CF) for measuring BB particles. For the PM mass concentration from a TSI Sidepak AM520, we found an optimal CF of 0.27, using a scanning mobility particle sizer and gravimetric reference methods, although the CF varied for different vegetation fuel types. Measurements of eBC from the Aethlabs AE51 aethalometer agreed well with the multi-wavelength aethalometer (AE33) (linear R2 of 0.95 at =880 nm) and the wavelength corrected multi-angle absorption photometer (MAAP, R2 of 0.83 measuring at =637 nm). However, the high variability in observed BB mass absorption cross-section (MAC) values (5.25.1 m2 g1) suggested re-calibration may be required for individual fires. Overall, our results indicate that the proposed UAS set-up can obtain representative BB EFs for individual savanna fires if proper correction factors are applied and operating limitations are well understood.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts
Connecting crop productivity, residue fires, and air quality over northern India (2019)

Northwestern India is known as the breadbasket of the country producing two-thirds of food grains, with wheat and rice as the principal crops grown under the crop rotation system. Agricultural data from India indicates a 25% increase in the post-monsoon rice crop production in Punjab during 20022016. NASAs A-train satellite sensors detect a consistent increase in the vegetation index (net 21%) and post-harvest agricultural fire activity (net ~60%) leading to nearly 43% increase in aerosol loading over the populous Indo-Gangetic Plain in northern India. The ground-level particulate matter (PM2.5) downwind over New Delhi shows a concurrent uptrend of net 60%. The effectiveness of a robust satellite-based relationship between vegetation indexa proxy for crop amounts, and post-harvest firesa precursor of extreme air pollution events, has been further demonstrated in predicting the seasonal agricultural burning. An efficient crop residue management system is critically needed towards eliminating open field burning to mitigate episodic hazardous air quality over northern India.

Research areas: Agriculture, Environmental Impacts
Direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosols from crop residue burning during the summer harvest season in East China (2017)

Abstract. East China experiences extensive crop residue burnings in fields during harvest season. The direct radiative effect (DRE) of carbonaceous aerosols from crop residue burning in June 2013 in East China was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Absorption of organic aerosol (OA) in the presence of brown carbon was considered using the parameterization of Saleh et al. (2014), in which the imaginary part of the OA refractive index is a function of wavelength and the ratio of black carbon (BC) and OA. The carbonaceous emissions from crop fires were estimated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire radiative power (FRP) product with a localized crop-burning-sourced BC-to-organic carbon (OC) ratio emission ratio of 0.27. Evaluation of the model results with in situ measurements of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 m (PM2. 5) chemical composition, MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) detections and meteorological observations showed that this model was able to reproduce the magnitude, spatial variation and optical characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol pollution. The observed BC and OC peak concentrations at the site in Suixi, Anhui province, during the 2013 wheat burning season reached 55.3 g m3 and 157.9 g m3. WRF-Chem simulations reproduced these trends with a correlation coefficient of 0.74, estimating that crop residue burning contributed 86 and 90 % of peak BC and OC, respectively. The simulated hourly DRE from crop residue burning at the top of atmosphere (TOA) reached a maximum of +22.66 W m2 at the Suixi site. On average, the simulations showed that the crop residue burning introduced a net positive DRE of +0.14 W m2 at TOA throughout East China, with BC from this source as the main heating contributor (+0.79 W m2). The OA DRE from crop burning (0.22 W m2) was a combined effect of the positive DRE of absorption (+0.21 W m2) and a stronger negative DRE of scattering (0.43 W m2). Sensitivity tests showed that the DRE of OA absorption strongly depended on the imaginary part of the OA refractive index, the BC-to-OA emission ratio from crop residue burning and the assumed mixing state of the aerosol, whereby the volume mixing treatment resulted in a higher positive DRE compared to the coreshell treatment. The BC mixing state and associated absorption enhancement during BC aging processes will be investigated in detail in future research.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts