nasa-gesdisc/es-publications-researchareas huggingface dataset:
Intra-population variability of the non-breeding distribution of southern giant petrels Macronectes giganteus is mediated by individual body size (2018)

Literature reports that body size can be associated with latitudinal distribution, for instance larger animals inhabit higher latitudes and colder habitats. This rule can be applied for species and populations within a species. The potential influence of body size on non-breeding distribution and habitat use at the intra-population level was investigated for southern giant petrels Macronectes giganteus (Gmelin) from Elephant Island, South Shetland Islands. The non-breeding distribution of 23 individuals was tracked, and total body length, culmen length, wing length, wing load and body mass were measured. Positions of core areas were used to estimate the latitudinal distribution of each individual. Smaller individuals were found to be associated more with lower latitudes, where warmer conditions and more coastal and productive waters prevail, whereas large males were associated more with higher latitudes, with colder conditions near sea ice caps, presumably feeding on carrion or preying on penguins. This association reflects a latitudinal gradient, with smaller individuals positioning themselves towards the north, and larger individuals towards the south. In this case, body size, individual distribution and habitat use were found to be associated, highlighting the importance of studying potential effects of individual body size on the ecology of seabirds.

Research areas: Ecosystems
Identifying and forecasting potential biophysical risk areas within a tropical mangrove ecosystem using multi-sensor data (2019)

Mangroves are one of the most productive ecosystems known for provisioning of various ecosystem goods and services. They help in sequestering large amounts of carbon, protecting coastline against erosion, and reducing impacts of natural disasters such as hurricanes. Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary in Odisha harbors the second largest mangrove ecosystem in India. This study used Terra, Landsat and Sentinel-1 satellite data for spatio-temporal monitoring of mangrove forest within Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary between 2000 and 2016. Three biophysical parameters were used to assess mangrove ecosystem health: leaf chlorophyll (CHL), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). A long-term analysis of meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature was performed to determine an association between these parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics. The correlation between meteorological parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics enabled forecasting of mangrove health and productivity for year 2050 by incorporating IPCC projected climate data. A historical analysis of land cover maps was also performed using Landsat 5 and 8 data to determine changes in mangrove area estimates in years 1995, 2004 and 2017. There was a decrease in dense mangrove extent with an increase in open mangroves and agricultural area. Despite conservation efforts, the current extent of dense mangrove is projected to decrease up to 10% by the year 2050. All three biophysical characteristics including GPP, LAI and CHL, are projected to experience a net decrease of 7.7%, 20.83% and 25.96% respectively by 2050 compared to the mean annual value in 2016. This study will help the Forest Department, Government of Odisha in managing and taking appropriate decisions for conserving and sustaining the remaining mangrove forest under the changing climate and developmental activities.

Research areas: Ecosystems
Concentrations and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols from 1750 to 2014 simulated with the Oslo CTM3 and CEDS emission inventory (2018)

Abstract. We document the ability of the new-generation Oslo chemistry-transport model, Oslo CTM3, to accurately simulate present-day aerosol distributions. The model is then used with the new Community Emission Data System (CEDS) historical emission inventory to provide updated time series of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and consequent direct radiative forcing (RFari) from 1750 to 2014. Overall, Oslo CTM3 performs well compared with measurements of surface concentrations and remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. Concentrations are underestimated in Asia, but the higher emissions in CEDS than previous inventories result in improvements compared to observations. The treatment of black carbon (BC) scavenging in Oslo CTM3 gives better agreement with observed vertical BC profiles relative to the predecessor Oslo CTM2. However, Arctic wintertime BC concentrations remain underestimated, and a range of sensitivity tests indicate that better physical understanding of processes associated with atmospheric BC processing is required to simultaneously reproduce both the observed features. Uncertainties in model input data, resolution, and scavenging affect the distribution of all aerosols species, especially at high latitudes and altitudes. However, we find no evidence of consistently better model performance across all observables and regions in the sensitivity tests than in the baseline configuration. Using CEDS, we estimate a net RFari in 2014 relative to 1750 of 0.17 W m2, significantly weaker than the IPCC AR5 20111750 estimate. Differences are attributable to several factors, including stronger absorption by organic aerosol, updated parameterization of BC absorption, and reduced sulfate cooling. The trend towards a weaker RFari over recent years is more pronounced than in the IPCC AR5, illustrating the importance of capturing recent regional emission changes.

Research areas: Air Quality
Characterization of particulate matter and black carbon over Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon: results from the OMM cruise experiment (2018)

Total and size-segregated particulate matter (PM) and black carbon (BC) concentrations over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) have been measured in the summer monsoon (AugustSeptember 2014) onboard a scientific cruise conducted as a part of the Ocean Monsoon and Mixing (OMM) experiment. Role of long-range transport and prevailing meteorology in producing the observed spatio-temporal features is inferred by synthesizing the results of in situ observations in conjunction with the wind components from Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), rainfall data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), surface BC concentration and BC Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOTBC) from MERRA2 and HYSPLIT back trajectory and dispersion model analysis. Mean values of total PM and BC mass concentrations are observed to be ~ 21.4 gm3 and ~ 393ngm3 respectively. The study has revealed significant influence of monsoon rainfall (over the measurement locations and regions through which transport occurred) on the concentration of both PM and BC over northern BoB. Results also indicate transport of aerosols with significant anthropogenic fraction, from the land regions at west to the BoB. A comprehensive analysis showed that while an eastward wind (westerly) from the Indian mainland produced an increase in PM2.5 over northern BoB, a southerly wind, mostly from the Indian Ocean, caused a decrease in concentration of PM2.5. Spectral variation of absorption coefficients of aerosols reveals that most of the BC over BoB is associated with fossil fuel combustion. Prevailing strong surface-level convergence (associated with a low-level anticyclone) resulted in accumulation and consequent enhancement of aerosol concentration over central and northern BoB during the study period. In addition, horizontal flow rates estimated across western boundary of BoB using AOTBC from MERRA2 for 10 years revealed an increasing trend in BC transport from the mainland leading to a gradual buildup in BC concentration over the regions of BoB.

Research areas: Air Quality, Energy Production/Use
Characteristics of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) over the Gangetic Plain of Bihar, India (2018)

The rapid urbanisation impacts on environment, climate, agriculture, water resources trigger several problems to human beings. The present study is carried out to estimate intensity and trend of Urban Heat Island (UHI) as Surface UHI (SUHI) over towns/cities of the Gangetic plain of the state of Bihar, India, in which urban areas show relatively greater Land Surface Temperature (LST) than its rural surroundings especially during night times. The LST data (2001-14) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is used for five major towns/cities of Bihar namely, Bhagalpur, Gaya, Patna, Purnea and Muzzaffarpur. Each city is classified into Urban, Suburban and Rural zones as per land cover of the area. During winter months (January, February, November and December), UHI is more intense over all towns/cities. Mann-Kendall Test is applied on Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) in which MK-Test Statistic (S) shows a significant increasing trend. This trend would alarm a risk to increase in air pollution, heat related biohazards, energy demand in the region. This study shows the need of urban greening and proper town planning over the considered areas to mitigate the changes.

Research areas: Heat, Habitat Conversion/Fragmentation
The impact of spatial and temporal resolutions in tropical summer rainfall distribution: preliminary results (2017)

The abundance or lack of rainfall affects peoples life and activities. As a major component of the global hydrological cycle (Chokngamwong & Chiu, 2007), accurate representations at various spatial and temporal scales are crucial for a lot of decision making processes. Climate models show a warmer and wetter climate due to increases of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). However, the models resolutions are often too coarse to be directly applicable to local scales that are useful for mitigation purposes. Hence disaggregation (downscaling) procedures are needed to transfer the coarse scale products to higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The aim of this paper is to examine the changes in the statistical parameters of rainfall at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) at 0.25 degree, 3 hourly grid rainfall data for a summer is aggregated to 0.5,1.0, 2.0 and 2.5 degree and at 6, 12, 24 hourly, pentad (five days) and monthly resolutions. The probability distributions (PDF) and cumulative distribution functions(CDF) of rain amount at these resolutions are computed and modeled as a mixed distribution. Parameters of the PDFs are compared using the Kolmogrov-Smironov (KS) test, both for the mixed and the marginal distribution. These distributions are shown to be distinct. The marginal distributions are fitted with Lognormal and Gamma distributions and it is found that the Gamma distributions fit much better than the Lognormal.

Research areas: Validation
Fluorescence-Based Approach to Estimate the Chlorophyll-A Concentration of a Phytoplankton Bloom in Ardley Cove (Antarctica) (2017)

A phytoplankton bloom occurred in Ardley Cove, King George Island in January 2016, during which maximum chlorophyll-a reached 9.87 mg/m3. Records show that blooms have previously not occurred in this area prior to 2010 and the average chlorophyll-a concentration between 1991 and 2009 was less than 2 mg/m3. Given the lack of in situ measurements and the poor performance of satellite algorithms in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic waters, we validate and assess several chlorophyll-a algorithms and apply an improved baseline fluorescence approach to examine this bloom event. In situ water properties including in vivo fluorescence, water leaving radiance, and solar irradiance were collected to evaluate satellite algorithms and characterize chlorophyll-a concentration, as well as dominant phytoplankton groups. The results validated the nFLH fluorescence baseline approach, resulting in a good agreement at this high latitude, high chlorophyll-a region with correlation at 59.46%. The dominant phytoplankton group within the bloom was micro-phytoplankton, occupying 79.58% of the total phytoplankton community. Increasing sea ice coverage and sea ice concentration are likely responsible for increasing phytoplankton blooms in the recent decade. Given the profound influence of climate change on sea-ice and phytoplankton dynamics in the region, it is imperative to develop accurate methods of estimating the spatial distribution and concentrations of the increasing occurrence of bloom events.

Research areas: Ecosystems, Cryospheric Indicators
Ground-Level NO2 in Urban Beijing: Trends, Distribution, and Effects of Emission Reduction Measures (2018)

The characteristic of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) concentrations, including the long-term trends, spatial distribution, and
effects of emission reduction measures-particularly those related to traffic management-were analyzed in Beijing by
multimethods. The annual mean concentration of NO 2 in Beijing decreased significantly from 71.0 g m 3 in 2000 to
49.0 g m 3 in 2008 while it fluctuated between 49.0 and 58.0 g m 3 and decreased slightly from 2008 to 2015.
Unfavorable diffusion conditions could increase NO 2 concentrations while emission reduction measures especially the
reduced vehicle NO x emissions could decrease NO 2 concentrations significantly. The observed mean concentration of NO 2
was 54.47  7.71 g m 3 from 2013 to 2015, while it changed to 94.62  7.99 g m 3 for 149 heavily polluted days. The
NO 2 concentration was lower in the northern and western regions and higher in the urban and southern areas in Beijing.
After the implementation of air quality assurance measures (particularly traffic management) during the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC, 112 November, 2014) and the Parade on the 70th Victory Memorial Day for the
Chinese Peoples War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression (PARADE, 20 August3 September, 2015), the mean
NO 2 concentrations during the APEC summit and PARADE decreased 46.2% and 39.5% respectively compared with
those before and after these major activities while diurnal NO 2 peaks decreased 24.5%85.3% and 4.1%70.8%,
respectively during the APEC summit and PARADE period. To decrease NO 2 concentrations, a high level of commitment
must be given to promote coordinated regional air pollution prevention and control mechanisms in Beijing and its
surrounding areas.

Research areas: Air Quality, Energy Production/Use
Spatial-temporal variations in surface ozone over Ushuaia and the Antarctic region: observations from in situ measurements, satellite data, and global models (2018)

The Antarctic continent is known to be an unpopulated region due to its extreme weather and climate conditions. However, the air quality over this continent can be affected by long-lived anthropogenic pollutants from the mainland. The Argentinian region of Ushuaia is often the main source area of accumulated hazardous gases over the Antarctic Peninsula. The main objective of this study is to report the first in situ observations yet known of surface ozone (O3) over Ushuaia, the Drake Passage, and Coastal Antarctic Peninsula (CAP) on board the RV Australis during the Malaysian Antarctic Scientific Expedition Cruise 2016 (MASEC16). Hourly O3 data was measured continuously for 23 days using an EcoTech O3 analyzer. To understand more about the distribution of surface O3 over the Antarctic, we present the spatial and temporal of surface O3 of long-term data (20092015) obtained online from the World Meteorology Organization of World Data Centre for greenhouse gases (WMO WDCGG). Furthermore, surface O3 satellite data from the free online NOAA-Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) database and online data assimilation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) were used. The data from both online products are compared to document the data sets and to give an indication of its quality towards in situ data. Finally, we used past carbon monoxide (CO) data as a proxy of surface O3 formation over Ushuaia and the Antarctic region. Our key findings were that the surface O3 mixing ratio during MASEC16 increased from a minimum of 5 ppb to ~ 1013 ppb approaching the Drake Passage and the Coastal Antarctic Peninsula (CAP) region. The anthropogenic and biogenic O3 precursors from Ushuaia and the marine region influenced the mixing ratio of surface O3 over the Drake Passage and CAP region. The past data from WDCGG showed that the annual O3 cycle has a maximum during the winter of 30 to 35 ppb between June and August and a minimum during the summer (January to February) of 10 to 20 ppb. The surface O3 mixing ratio during the summer was controlled by photochemical processes in the presence of sunlight, leading to the depletion process. During the winter, the photochemical production of surface O3 was more dominant. The NOAA-AIRS and ECMWF-MACC analysis agreed well with the MASEC16 data but twice were higher during the expedition period. Finally, the CO past data showed the surface O3 mixing ratio was influenced by the CO mixing ratio over both the Ushuaia and Antarctic regions. Peak surface O3 and CO hourly mixing ratios reached up to ~ 38 ppb (O3) and ~ 500 ppb (CO) over Ushuaia. High CO over Ushuaia led to the depletion process of surface O3 over the region. Monthly CO mixing ratio over Antarctic (South Pole) were low, leading to the production of surface O3 over the Antarctic region.

Research areas: Air Quality
Caribbean Air Chemistry and Dispersion Conditions (2017)

The meteorological influences on Caribbean air chemistry are studied using in-situ, satellite
and model data. Although African dust plumes join locally generated pollutants, concentrations are
relatively low in the eastern Caribbean due to geographic remoteness and steady oceanic trade winds.
Urban-industrial emissions from big cities (e.g., Kingston, Santo Domingo, San Juan), agricultural
emissions from the south, and volcanic emissions from Montserrat contribute a noticeable burden.
Conditions over Puerto Rico in the dry season (DecemberMay) provide a focus for statistical analysis
of air chemistry constituents and weather variables that describe dispersion conditions. Monthly
and daily air indices are formed by summing the normalized values of fine aerosols and particulates,
long- and short-lived trace gases from in-situ, satellite and model sources. The spatial correlation of a
daily Puerto Rico air index onto regional dewpoint temperature, air pressure and outgoing longwave
radiation fields in DecemberMay 20052015 reveals the northward movement of a dry tongue
and trough. At the climate timescale, Pacific El Nino conditions favor an increase of spring-time
air pollution corresponding to anomalous inflow from Africa and the southern Caribbean coast.
Composite weather patterns for a group of high air index values reflect divergent trade winds
and a strong jet stream that imparts anticyclonic vorticity, subsidence and low humidity. This new
understanding will underpin better air quality forecasts for Puerto Rico and the wider Caribbean.

Research areas: Air Quality
Forecasting climate-driven changes in the geographical range of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) (2017)

Anthropogenic climate change is already affecting marine ecosystems and the responses of living-resources to warming waters are various, ranging from the modifications in the abundance of key species to phenologic and biogeographic shifts. Here, we used a recently developed Ecological Niche Model (ENM) to evaluate the potential effects of global climate change on the future geographical distribution of the European anchovy. We first modelled the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of the fish and projected its future spatial range using new IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios and five of the latest generation of ocean-atmosphere global circulation models. We chose this multi-model and multi-scenario approach to evaluate the range of possible trajectories until the end of the century. Our projections indicate that substantial poleward shifts in the probability of anchovy occurrence are very likely and highlight areas where European anchovy fisheries are forecasted to change most. Whatever the warming scenario, our results project a reduction in the probability of occurrence in all the regions located under 48N and an increase in more northern areas. However, increases or decreases in the probability of occurrence are greater under the business-as-usual scenario RCP8.5 than under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6.

Research areas: Ecosystems, Atmospheric/Ocean Indicators, Agriculture
Variations in particulate matter over Indo-Gangetic Plains and Indo-Himalayan Range during four field campaigns in winter monsoon and summer monsoon: Role of pollution pathways (2017)

Both in-situ and space-borne observations reveal an extremely high loading of particulates over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), all year around. With a burgeoning population and combustion sources (fossil fuels (FFs) and biofuels (BFs)) in close proximity to each other, the IGP is widely regarded as a hotspot for anthropogenic aerosol emission in South Asia. The deteriorating air quality over this region, particularly during winters, is a cause of major concern, since the pollutants undergo long range transport from their source regions to the Indo-Himalayan Range (IHR), Bay of Bengal (BoB) and other remote areas, polluting their pristine atmospheric conditions. Seasonal reversal in winds over the Indian mainland leads to an outflow of continental pollutants into the BoB during winters and a net advection of desert dust aerosols into the IGP from southwest Asia (SW-Asia), northwest India (NW-India) and northern Africa (N-Africa) during summers. Through the course of this study, four observational campaigns were conducted for sampling the ambient PM2.5 and PM10 during winter and summer seasons of 20142015, at multiple locations (18 sites) in the IGP, IHR, and semi-arid/arid sites towards their south and west, in order to accurately determine the inter-seasonal and inter-annual changes in the aerosol loading at the sites. We have also utilized data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on-board Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra satellite for estimating the columnar Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD550) and data from EOS Terra and Aqua satellites for discovering openly burning fires in the vicinity of sampling sites. Determination of the major source regions and key transport pathways during both seasons have also been attempted, using back-trajectory cluster analyses, as well as receptor models such as PSCF and CWT.

Research areas: Air Quality, Energy Production/Use