nasa-gesdisc/es-publications-researchareas huggingface dataset:
The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems (2021)

This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km<SUP>2</SUP> of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km<SUP>2</SUP> of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

Research areas: Habitat Conversion/Fragmentation, Energy Production/Use
Spatiotemporal variation and distribution characteristics of crop residue burning in China from 2001 to 2018 (2021)

In this study, we integrated a remote-sensing fire product (MOD14A1) and land-use product (MCD12Q1) to extract the number of crop-residue burning (CRB) spots and the fire radiative power (FRP) in China from 2001 to 2018. Moreover, we conducted three trend analyses and two geographic distribution analyses to quantify the interannual variations and summarize the spatial characteristics of CRB on grid (0.25  0.25) and regional scales. The results indicated that CRB presents distinctive seasonal patterns with each sub-region. All trend analyses suggested that the annual number of CRB spots in China increased significantly from 2001 to 2018; the linear trend reached 2615 spots/year, the Theil-Sen slope was slightly lower at 2557 spots/year, and the Mann-Kendal  was 0.75. By dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we found that the five sub-regions presented different trends in the first and second sub-periods; e.g., the Theil-Sen slope of eastern China in the first sub-period (20012009) was 1021 spots/year but was 1599 spots/year in the second period (20102018). This suggests that summer CRB has been effectively mitigated in eastern China since 2010. Further, the average FRP of CRB spots presented a decreasing trend from 27.5 MW/spot in 2001 to only 15.8 MW/spot in 2018; this may be attributable to more scattered CRB rather than aggregated CRB. Collectively, the fire spots, FRP, and average FRP indicated that spring, summer, and autumn CRB had dropped dramatically over previous levels by 2018 due to strict mitigation measures by local governments.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts, Habitat Conversion/Fragmentation
Estimation of Field-Level NOx Emissions from Crop Residue Burning Using (2021)

Crop residue burning is the major biomass burning activity in China, strongly influencing the regional air quality and climate. As the cultivation pattern in China is rather scattered and intricate, it is a challenge to derive an accurate emission inventory for crop residue burning. In this study, we proposed a remote sensing-based method to estimate nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions related to crop residue burning at the field level over Hubei, China. The new method considers differences in emission factors and the spatial distribution for different crop types. Fire radiative power (FRP) derived from moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to quantify NOx emissions related to agricultural biomass combustion. The spatial distribution of different crops classified by multisource remote sensing data was used as an a priori constraint. We derived a new NOx emission database for Hubei from 2014 to 2016 with spatial resolution of 1  1 km. Significant seasonal patterns were observed from the NOx emission database. Peak NOx emission occurring in October was related to the residue burning in late autumn harvesting. Another peak was observed between January and April, which was due to the frequent burning of stubble before spring sowing. Our results were validated by comparing our emission inventory with geostationary satellite observations, previous studies, global fire emission database (GFED), NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) from ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) satellite observations, and measurements from environmental monitoring stations. The comparisons showed NOx emission from GFED database was 47% lower than ours, while the evaluations from most of the statistical studies were significantly higher than our results. The discrepancies were likely related to the differences of methodology and data sources. The spatiotemporal variations of NOx emission in this study showed strong correlations with NO2 VCDs, which agreed well with geostationary satellite observations. A reasonable correlation between in situ NO2 observations and our results in agricultural regions demonstrated that our method is reliable. We believe that the new NOx emission database for crop residue burning derived in this study can potentially improve the understanding of pollution sources and can provide additional information for the design of pollution control measures.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts, Air Quality
Hop: An Emerging Crop in Subtropical Areas in Brazil (2022)

Brazil is one of the three largest beer producers in the world. Four basic ingredients are needed as raw material for the production of beer: water, malt, yeast, and hops (Humulus lupulus L.). Until recently, almost all of the hops in Brazil were imported from other countries. However, in the last decade, hop cultivation in Brazil has emerged due to the increase in the number of new craft breweries, which have demanded diversified raw material for the production of various types of beer. Hops is considered a short-day, temperate species, so the major challenge for the development of hop cultivation in Brazil, with high-yield capacity and with local typicity of bitterness and aroma, is the adaptation of cultivars to the photoperiod conditions in subtropical regions. This review addresses the history of hop cultivation in Brazil and characterizes the main climatic elements of three emerging subtropical growing regions located at different latitudes, such as air temperature, photoperiod, solar radiation, and water availability, to provide support for the development of new technologies for hop cultivation, including supplemental lighting, irrigation, and mulching.

Research areas: Agriculture
Impact of biomass burnings in Southeast Asia on air quality and pollutant transport during the end of the 2019 dry season (2021)

At the end of the dry season, March and April in Southeast Asia (SEA), agricultural refuse burnings occur over the region, mainly in the countries of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, in preparation for the wet rice plantation. In this study, the impact of biomass burnings at the height of the burning period in March 2019 in mainland SEA on air quality and pollutant transport is modelled using the Weather Research Forecast WRF-Chem air quality model with emission input from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Fire Emission Inventory from NCAR (FINN). FINN is derived from satellite remote sensing data and species emission factors. A simulation of the dispersion of pollutants from biomass burnings from 13 to 19 March 2019, when the burnings was most intense, was performed. Validation of the model prediction using observed meteorological and pollutant data such as AOD measurements on ground from AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) and data from MODIS and CALIPSO satellites is carried out at various sites in the region. The results show that impact on air quality was most pronounced in Thailand and Laos but the effect of biomass burnings in mainland SEA at the end of the dry season is widespread in terms of pollutant dispersion and population exposure over the whole region and beyond. It is also shown that the transport of pollutants from biomass burnings in SEA to southern China, Taiwan and beyond is facilitated by the Truong Son mountain range, when under westerly wind, acting as a launching pad to uplift the pollutant plumes to higher altitude which then can be dispersed widely and transported farther from the biomass burning sources in Thailand and Laos.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts, Air Quality
Hungry cities: how local food self-sufficiency relates to climate change, diets, and urbanisation (2019)

Abstract
            
              Using a newly developed model approach and combining it with remote sensing, population, and climate data, first insights are provided into how local diets, urbanisation, and climate change relates to local urban food self-sufficiency. In plain terms, by utilizing the global peri-urban (PU) food production potential approximately 1bn urban residents (30% of global urban population) can be locally nourished, whereby further urbanisation is by far the largest pressure factor on PU agriculture, followed by a change of diets, and climate change. A simple global food transport model which optimizes transport and neglects differences in local emission intensities indicates that CO
              2
              emissions related to food transport can be reduced by a factor of 10.

Research areas: Habitat Conversion/Fragmentation, Air Quality
Environmental Association of Burning Agricultural Biomass in the Indus River Basin (2020)

Intensification of smog episodes, following harvesting of paddy crops in agricultural plains of the Indus basin in the Indian subcontinent, are often attributed to farming practice of burning standing stubble during late autumn (October, November) months. Biomass burning (paddy stubble residual) is a preferred technique to clear farmlands for centuries by farmers in that basin. However, despite stable agricultural landholding and yield, smog is being increasingly associated with burning agricultural biomass, thus creating a paradox. Here, we show that the concentration of smog (NOx, PM<SUB>2.5</SUB>, SO<SUB>2</SUB>) in the ambient air exceeds the safe threshold limits throughout the entire year in the region. This study argues that agricultural biomass burning is an ephemeral event in the basin that may act as a catalyst to a deteriorated air quality in the entire region. Results further demonstrate that simultaneous saturation of air pollutants along with high ambient moisture content and low wind speeds following the monsoon season are strongly related to aggravated smog events. Findings from this study should help make holistic mitigation and intervention policies to monitor air quality for sustainability of public health in agricultural regions where farming activities are a dominant economic driver for society.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts, Air Quality
Geographical political economy of nuclear power plant closures (2019)

Nuclear power had its heyday in the 1970s in the United States, and many of the nuclear power plants constructed during that period are now facing the end of their design life. Consequently, nuclear power plant closures and unsitings are emerging as highly contentious public issues. In an effort to provide a more nuanced account of nuclear power plant closures, we adopt theoretical vantage points from the geographical political economy literature. Our analysis focuses on the articulation and characterization of socio-spatial moments of closure processes rather than enumerating underlying factors in order to better explain variegated plant closure outcomes. For empirical analysis, we examine two contrasting cases of recent conflict over nuclear power plant closure in the northeastern United States, involving the Vermont Yankee and FitzPatrick plants. These closure episodes show marked differences in region-level activism. Yet the presence of these movements alone is insufficient in accounting for particular outcomes (the when and how) of the plant closure controversies. Our analysis highlights the agency of key state actors and their selective deployment of various global and local themes, such as nuclear disaster in Fukushima, global climate change, corporate accountability, and regional economic conditions, to define and promote their goals. Our study also demonstrates how the moments of closure decisions can be opened up by viewing the closure controversies from the owner company side, pointing to the usefulness of not only comparative, but also of connective accounts that highlight spatio-temporal links between closure processes.

Research areas: Energy Production/Use
Marked rebound of agricultural fire emissions in Asia after the outbreak (2022)

Abstract
            East and South Asia are major hotspots of crop straw burning worldwide, with profound impacts on air quality and climate change. The Northeast China Plain (NECP) and Punjab, India, are two of the most fertile areas for crop production, which have large-scale agricultural fires during post-harvest seasons. Leveraging established fire-emission databases and satellite-retrieved agricultural fire spots, we show that, while the years 2018 and 2019 recorded low agricultural fire emissions in both the NECP and Punjab, probably due to the implementation of crop straw sustainable management, fire emissions markedly rebounded in 2020, reaching about 190% and 150% of 2019 levels, respectively. The COVID-19 lockdown measures somewhat disrupted eco-friendly crop straw management through restrictions on labor and transportation availability, such that farmers may have had to burn off crop wastes to clear up the land. We further demonstrate that the increased fire emissions in the NECP resulted in serious particulate matter pollution during the fire season in spring 2020, as opposed to considerable decreases in particles from fossil fuel emissions caused by the COVID-19 lockdown. This study suggests the unintended impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the agricultural sector and human health.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts, Air Quality
Biomass burning nitrogen dioxide emissions derived from space with TROPOMI: methodology and validation (2021)

Abstract. Smoke from wildfires is a significant source of air pollution, which can adversely impact air quality and ecosystems downwind. With the recently increasing intensity and severity of wildfires, the threat to air quality is expected to increase. Satellite-derived biomass burning emissions can fill in gaps in the absence of aircraft or ground-based measurement campaigns and can help improve the online calculation of biomass burning emissions as well as the biomass burning emissions inventories that feed air quality models. This study focuses on satellite-derived NOx emissions using the high-spatial-resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 dataset. Advancements and improvements to the satellite-based determination of forest fire NOx emissions are discussed, including information on plume height and effects of aerosol scattering and absorption on the satellite-retrieved vertical column densities. Two common top-down emission estimation methods, (1) an exponentially modified Gaussian (EMG) and (2) a flux method, are applied to synthetic data to determine the accuracy and the sensitivity to different parameters, including wind fields, satellite sampling, noise, lifetime, and plume spread. These tests show that emissions can be accurately estimated from single TROPOMI overpasses. The effect of smoke aerosols on TROPOMI NO2 columns (via air mass factors, AMFs) is estimated, and these satellite columns and emission estimates are compared to aircraft observations from four different aircraft campaigns measuring biomass burning plumes in 2018 and 2019 in North America. Our results indicate that applying an explicit aerosol correction to the TROPOMI NO2 columns improves the agreement with the aircraft observations (by about 10 %25 %). The aircraft- and satellite-derived emissions are in good agreement within the uncertainties. Both top-down emissions methods work well; however, the EMG method seems to output more consistent results and has better agreement with the aircraft-derived emissions. Assuming a Gaussian plume shape for various biomass burning plumes, we estimate an average NOx e-folding time of 2 1 h from TROPOMI observations. Based on chemistry transport model simulations and aircraft observations, the net emissions of NOx are 1.3 to 1.5 times greater than the satellite-derived NO2 emissions. A correction factor of 1.3 to 1.5 should thus be used to infer net NOx emissions from the satellite retrievals of NO2.

Research areas: Wildfires, Air Quality
The uneven expansion of electricity supply in India: The logics of clientelism, incrementalism and maximin (2021)

This study examines the recent massive expansion of electricity supply in India. With data from over 120,000 observations relating to households across the country in 2014 and 2019, we describe the rapid but uneven increases in hours of supply. We compare three distinct logics of public service delivery that may account for different rates of improvement in electricity supply - the logics of clientelism, incrementalism and maximin. The clientelist logic posits that state-level elected representatives target investments toward local areas where they hold small margins of support to improve their chances of re-election. According to the logic of incrementalism, policymakers focus on policies that are closely aligned with existing policies, which implies that supply increases most in locations where surrounding areas have relatively good electricity supply. The maximin logic, by contrast, posits that the greatest improvements take place in locations that previously had the poorest supply. The evidence supports each of the three logics to some extent, but by far the strongest evidence supports the maximin logic.

Research areas: Energy Production/Use
Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning to guide national policy: an example from Uruguay (2020)

Abstract
            Despite broad consensus on the benefits of a nexus approach to multi-sector planning, actual implementation in government and other decision-making institutions is still rare. This study presents an approach to conducting integrated energy-water-land (EWL) planning, using Uruguay as an example. This stakeholder-driven study focuses on assessing the EWL nexus implications of actual planned policies aimed at strengthening three of Uruguays key exports (beef, soy, and rice), which account for more than 40% of total national export revenue. Five scenarios are analyzed in the study: a reference scenario, a climate impacts scenario, and three policy scenarios. The three policy scenarios include measures such as increasing the intensity of beef production while simultaneously decreasing emissions, increasing irrigated soybean production, and improving rice yields. This study supplements previous sector-specific planning efforts in Uruguay by conducting the first stakeholder-driven integrated multi-sector assessment of planned policies in Uruguay using a suite of integrated modeling tools. Key insights from the study are: as compared to a reference scenario, improving beef productivity could lead to cropland expansion (+30%) and significant indirect increases in water requirements (+20%); improving rice yields could lead to increases in total emissions (+3%), which may partially offset emissions reductions from other policies; expanding irrigated soy could have the least EWL impacts amongst the policies studied; and climate-driven changes could have significantly less impact on EWL systems as compared to human actions. The generalizable insights derived from this analysis are readily applicable to other countries facing similar multi-sector planning challenges. In particular, the studys results reinforce the fact that policies often have multi-sector consequences, and thus policies can impact one anothers efficacy. Thus, policy design and implementation can benefit from coordination across sectors and decision-making institutions.

Research areas: Environmental Impacts, Habitat Conversion/Fragmentation, Agriculture
Measurement report: Firework impacts on air quality in Metro Manila, Philippines, during the 2019 New Year revelry (2021)

Abstract. Fireworks degrade air quality, reduce visibility, alter atmospheric chemistry, and cause short-term adverse health effects. However, there have not been any comprehensive physicochemical and optical measurements of fireworks and their associated impacts in a Southeast Asia megacity, where fireworks are a regular part of the culture. Size-resolved particulate matter (PM) measurements were made before, during, and after New Year 2019 at the Manila Observatory in Quezon City, Philippines, as part of the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex). A high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL) recorded a substantial increase in backscattered signal associated with high aerosol loading 440 m above the surface during the peak of firework activities around 00:00 (local time). This was accompanied by PM2.5 concentrations peaking at 383.9 g m3. During the firework event, water-soluble ions and elements, which affect particle formation, growth, and fate, were mostly in the submicrometer diameter range. Total (>0.056 m) water-soluble bulk particle mass concentrations were enriched by 5.7 times during the fireworks relative to the background (i.e., average of before and after the firework). The water-soluble mass fraction of PM2.5 increased by 18.5 % above that of background values. This corresponded to increased volume fractions of inorganics which increased bulk particle hygroscopicity, kappa (), from 0.11 (background) to 0.18 (fireworks). Potassium and non-sea-salt (nss) SO42- contributed the most (70.9 %) to the water-soluble mass, with their mass size distributions shifting from a smaller to a larger submicrometer mode during the firework event. On the other hand, mass size distributions for NO3-, Cl, and Mg2+ (21.1 % mass contribution) shifted from a supermicrometer mode to a submicrometer mode. Being both uninfluenced by secondary aerosol formation and constituents of firework materials, a subset of species were identified as the best firework tracer species (Cu, Ba, Sr, K+, Al, and Pb). Although these species (excluding K+) only contributed 2.1 % of the total mass concentration of water-soluble ions and elements, they exhibited the highest enrichments (6.1 to 65.2) during the fireworks. Surface microscopy analysis confirmed the presence of potassium/chloride-rich cubic particles along with capsule-shaped particles in firework samples. The results of this study highlight how firework emissions change the physicochemical and optical properties of water-soluble particles (e.g., mass size distribution, composition, hygroscopicity, and aerosol backscatter), which subsequently alters the background aerosol's respirability, influence on surroundings, ability to uptake gases, and viability as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).

Research areas: Environmental Impacts, Air Quality