nasa-gesdisc/es-publications-researchareas huggingface dataset:
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data (2022)

Abstract. Although the generally high fertility of volcanic soils is often seen as an opportunity, short-term consequences of eruptions on natural and cultivated vegetation are likely to be negative. The empirical knowledge obtained from post-event impact assessments provides crucial insights into the range of parameters controlling impact and recovery of vegetation, but their limited coverage in time and space offers a limited sample of all possible eruptive and environmental conditions. Consequently, vegetation vulnerability remains largely unconstrained, thus impeding quantitative risk analyses. Here, we explore how cloud-based big Earth observation data, remote sensing and interpretable machine learning (ML) can provide a large-scale alternative to identify the nature of, and infer relationships between, drivers controlling vegetation impact and recovery. We present a methodology developed using Google Earth Engine to systematically revisit the impact of past eruptions and constrain critical hazard and vulnerability parameters. Its application to the impact associated with the tephra fallout from the 2011 eruption of Cordon Caulle volcano (Chile) reveals its ability to capture different impact states as a function of hazard and environmental parameters and highlights feedbacks and thresholds controlling impact and recovery of both natural and cultivated vegetation. We therefore conclude that big Earth observation (EO) data and machine learning complement existing impact datasets and open the way to a new type of dynamic and large-scale vulnerability models.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Time-scales of inter-eruptive volcano uplift signals: Three Sisters volcanic center, Oregon (United States) (2021)

A classical inflation-eruption-deflation cycle of a volcano is useful to conceptualize the time-evolving deformation of volcanic systems. Such a model predicts accelerated uplift during pre-eruptive periods, followed by subsidence during the co-eruptive stage. Some volcanoes show puzzling persistent uplift signals with minor or no other geophysical or geochemical variations, which are difficult to interpret. Such temporal behaviors are usually observed in large calderas (e.g., Yellowstone, Long Valley, Campi Flegrei, Rabaul), but less commonly for stratovolcanoes. Volcano deformation needs to be better understood during inter-eruptive stages, to assess its value as a tool for forecasting eruptions and to understand the processes governing the unrest behavior. Here, we analyze inter-eruptive uplift signals at Three Sisters, a complex stratovolcano in Oregon (United States), which in recent decades shows persistent inter-eruptive uplift signals without associated eruptive activity. Using a Bayesian inversion method, we re-assessed the source characteristics (magmatic system geometry and location) and its uncertainties. Furthermore, we evaluate the most recent evolution of the surface deformation signals combining both GPS and InSAR data through a new non-subjective linear regularization inversion procedure to estimate the 26 years-long time-series. Our results constrain the onset of the Three Sisters volcano inflation to be between October 1998 and August 1999. In the absence of new magmatic inputs, we estimate a continuous uplift signal, at diminishing but detectable rates, to last for few decades. The observed uplift decay observed at Three Sisters is consistent with a viscoelastic response of the crust, with viscosity of 1018 Pa s around a magmatic source with a pressure change which increases in finite time to a constant value. Finally, we compare Three Sisters volcano time series with historical uplift at different volcanic systems. Proper modeling of scaled inflation time series indicates a unique and well-defined exponential decay in temporal behavior. Such evidence supports that this common temporal evolution of uplift rates could be a potential indicator of a rather reduced set of physical processes behind inter-eruptive uplift signals.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Modeling the Sulfate Aerosol Evolution After Recent Moderate Volcanic Activity, 20082012 (2021)

Volcanic activity is a major natural climate forcing and an accurate representation of volcanic aerosols in global climate models is essential. This is a complex task involving many uncertainties in the model design and setup and observations. We analyze the performance of the aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2 for three medium-sized volcanic eruptions. We focus on the impact of differences in volcanic plume height and SO<SUB>2</SUB> estimates on the stratospheric aerosol burden. The influence of internal model variability and dynamics are addressed through an ensemble of free-running and nudged simulations at different vertical resolutions. Comparing the modeled evolution of the stratospheric aerosol loading to satellite measurements reveals a good model performance. However, a conclusive validation is complicated by uncertainties in observations and emission estimates. The large spread in emitted sulfur amount and its vertical distribution consequently lead to differences in simulated aerosol burdens. Varying tropopause heights among free-running simulations add to these differences, modulating the amount of sulfur injected into the stratosphere. In nudged mode, volcanic aerosol burden peaks are well reproduced, however changes in convection and clouds affect SO<SUB>2</SUB> oxidation paths and cross-tropopause transport, leading to increased background burdens compared to observations. This effect can be reduced by leaving temperatures unconstrained. A higher vertical resolution of 90 levels increases the stratospheric residence time of sulfate aerosol by reducing the diffusion out of the tropical reservoir. We conclude that the model set-up (vertical resolution and free-running vs. nudged) as well as forcing parameters (volcanic emission strength and plume height) contribute equally to the model uncertainties.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Evidence for the predictability of changes in the stratospheric aerosol size following volcanic eruptions of diverse magnitudes using space-based instruments (2021)

Abstract. An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption's main aerosol layer and the wavelength dependence of that perturbation. This relationship spans multiple orders of magnitude in the aerosol extinction coefficient of stratospheric impact of volcanic events. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main sulfuric acid aerosol layer and other factors may significantly modulate these results. Despite these limitations, the findings suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single-channel observations such as the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System as they rely on a prior assumptions about particle size. They may also represent a distinct avenue for the comparison of observations with interactive aerosol models used in global climate models and Earth system models.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Analyzing land surface temperature variations during Fogo Island (Cape Verde) 2014-2015 eruption with Landsat 8 images (2016)

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important parameter related to land surface processes that changes continuously through time. Assessing its dynamics during a volcanic eruption has both environmental and socio-economical interest. Lava flows and other volcanic materials produced and deposited throughout an eruption transform the landscape, contributing to its heterogeneity and altering LST measurements. This paper aims to assess variations of satellite-derived LST and to detect patterns during the latest Fogo Island (Cape Verde) eruption, extending from November 2014 through February 2015. LST data was obtained through four processed Landsat 8 images, focused on the caldera where Pico do Fogo volcano sits. QGIS plugin Semi-Automatic Classification was used in order to apply atmospheric corrections and radiometric calibrations. The algorithm used to retrieve LST values is a single-channel method, in which emissivity values are known. The absence of in situ measurements is compensated by the use of MODIS sensor-derived LST data, used to compare with Landsat retrieved measurements. LST data analysis shows as expected that the highest LST values are located inside the caldera. High temperature values were also founded on the south-facing flank of the caldera. Although spatial patterns observed on the retrieved data remained roughly the same during the time period considered, temperature values changed throughout the area and over time, as it was also expected. LST values followed the eruption dynamic experiencing a growth followed by a decline. Moreover, it seems possible to recognize areas affected by lava flows of previous eruptions, due to well-defined LST spatial patterns.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Tracking aerosols and SO2 clouds from the Raikoke eruption: 3D view from satellite observations (2021)

Abstract. The 21 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano (Kuril Islands, Russia; 48 N, 153 E) produced significant amounts of volcanic aerosols (sulfate and ash) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas that penetrated into the lower stratosphere. The dispersed SO2 and sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere were still detectable by multiple satellite sensors for many months after the eruption. For this study of SO2 and aerosol clouds we use data obtained from two of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite sensors on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite: total column SO2 from the Nadir Mapper and aerosol extinction profiles from the Limb Profiler as well as other satellite data sets. We evaluated the limb viewing geometry effect (the arch effect) in the retrieval of the LP standard aerosol extinction product at 674 nm. It was shown that the amount of SO2 decreases with a characteristic period of 818 d and the peak of stratospheric aerosol optical depth recorded at a wavelength of 674 nm lags the initial peak of SO2 mass by 1.5 months. Using satellite observations and a trajectory model, we examined the dynamics of an unusual atmospheric feature that was observed, a stratospheric coherent circular cloud of SO2 and aerosol from 18 July to 22 September 2019.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
The origin and evolution of breakouts in a cooling-limited rhyolite lava flow (2019)

Understanding lava flow processes is important for interpreting existing lavas and for hazard assessments. Although substantial progress has been made for basaltic lavas our understanding of silicic lava flows has seen limited recent advance. In particular, the formation of lava flow breakouts, which represent a characteristic process in cooling-limited basaltic lavas, but has not been described in established models of rhyolite emplacement. Using data from the 20112012 rhyolite eruption of Puyehue-Cordon Caulle, Chile, we develop the first conceptual framework to classify breakout types in silicic lavas, and to describe the processes involved in their progressive growth, inflation, and morphological change. By integrating multi-scale satellite, field, and textural data from Cordon Caulle, we interpret breakout formation to be driven by a combination of pressure increase (from local vesiculation in the lava flow core, as well as from continued supply via extended thermally preferential pathways) and a weakening of the surface crust through lateral spreading and fracturing. Small breakouts, potentially resulting more from local vesiculation than from continued magma supply, show a domed morphology, developing into petaloid as inflation increasingly fractures the surface crust. Continued growth and fracturing results in a rubbly morphology, with the most inflated breakouts developing into a cleft-split morphology, reminiscent of tumulus inflation structures seen in basalts. These distinct morphological classes result from the evolving relative contributions of continued breakout advance and inflation. The extended nature of some breakouts highlights the role of lava supply under a stationary crust, a process ubiquitous in inflating basalt lava flows that reflects the presence of thermally preferential pathways. Textural analyses of the Cordon Caulle breakouts also emphasize the importance of late-stage volatile exsolution and vesiculation within the lava flow. Although breakouts occur across the compositional spectrum of lava flows, the greater magma viscosity is likely to make late-stage vesiculation much more important for breakout development in silicic lavas than in basalts. Such late-stage vesiculation has direct implications for hazards previously recognized from silicic lava flows, enhancing the likelihood of flow front collapse, and explosive decompression of the lava core.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Investigating the Large-Scale Transport of a Volcanic Plume and the (2020)

Volcanic plumes can be transported across vast distances and can have an impact on solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) reaching the surface due to the scattering and absorption caused by aerosols. The dispersion of the volcanic plume from the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcanic complex (PCCVC) eruption was investigated to determine the effect on aerosol loading at Cape Point, South Africa. The eruption occurred on 4 June 2011 and resulted in a plume reaching a height of between 9 and 12 km and was dispersed across the Southern Hemisphere. Satellite sulphur dioxide (SO2) observations and a dispersion model showed low concentrations of SO2 at the secondary site. However, satellite observations of volcanic ash and ground-based aerosol measurements did show increases between 10 and 20 June 2011 at the secondary site. Furthermore, there was good agreement with the dispersion model results and observations from satellites with most of the plume located between latitudes 4060 South.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
The submarine tectono-magmatic framework of Cu-Au endowment in the Tabar-to-Feni island chain, PNG (2020)

The Southwest Pacific region, and Papua New Guinea in particular, is spectacularly endowed with mineral resources, including some of the youngest and richest porphyry Cu-Mo-Au deposits in the world. Among them is the giant porphyry-epithermal Ladolam Au deposit on Lihir Island in the Tabar-Lihir-Tanga-Feni (TLTF) island chain, northeast of New Ireland. Its setting within a former forearc basin is very different from most Southwest Pacific porphyry and epithermal deposits. Our synthesis of published and previously unreleased data from ship-based multibeam and seismic studies, satellite gravimetry, geochemistry and geochronology reveals a far more complex crustal structure and composition than is presently understood from the geology of the islands alone. We show that the unique regional Au endowment results from the alignment of various preconditions that are prolific to ore formation: i) hydrous and metal-rich metasomatic veins in the mantle source, ii) second-stage, low volume partial melting due to incipient rifting, iii) high volatile contents and oxygen fugacities of the melts due to preferential melting of hydrous phases in the metasomatic veins, and iv) in the specific case of Lihir, unroofing of the volcanic edifice that led to boiling and rapid metal deposition. This study shows that the location of the Ladolam deposit on Lihir is controlled by large-scale structures that can be traced offshore and are the site of continuing submarine volcanism and epithermal-style Au mineralization. The observed structural framework is dominated by the emergence of trans-lithospheric faults that provided pathways for the melts to the seafloor, near-surface structural focusing of the ascending melts and fluids, and a regional tectonic stress regime that stabilized the conditions over a significant period of time and/or repeatedly. Marine seismic data confirms the complex structure of the TLTF island chain. Each island group sits on tilted blocks that form horst structures separated by half grabens developed due to regional NW-SE-directed extension. Regional compression perpendicular to the extension continues as a result of the transition from subduction to collision at the leading edge of the Ontong Java Plateau. The protracted, transtensional motion between distinct crustal blocks controls the location and timing of magmatism and mineralization. A kinematic link between volcanism at the location of Lihir and the splitting of New Ireland by NE-directed propagation of seafloor spreading in the Manus Basin is suspected. By combining onshore and offshore geology, we propose a new model of the evolution of the New Ireland Basin, magmatism along the TLTF island chain and ultimately ore deposit formation. This study demonstrates the importance of integrating offshore geology and geophysics into models that aim to explain the structural, magmatic, and sedimentary evolution of marginal basins that are host to economic mineral deposits.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Effects of structure and volcanic stratigraphy on groundwater and surface water flow: Hat Creek basin, California, USA (2022)

Hydrogeologic systems in the southern Cascade Range in California (USA) develop in volcanic rocks where morphology, stratigraphy, extensional structures, and attendant basin geometry play a central role in groundwater flow paths, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and spring discharge locations. High-volume springs (greater than 3 m3/s) flow from basin-filling (<800 ka) volcanic rocks in the Hat Creek and Fall River tributaries and contribute approximately half of the average annual flow of the Pit River, the largest tributary to Shasta Lake. A hydrogeologic conceptual framework is constructed for the Hat Creek basin combining new geologic mapping, water-well lithologic logs, a database of active faults, LiDAR mapping of faults and volcanic landforms, streamflow measurements and airborne thermal infrared remote sensing of stream temperature. These data are used to integrate the geologic structure and the volcanic and volcaniclastic stratigraphy to create a three-dimensional interpretation of the hydrogeology in the basin. Two large streamflow gains from focused groundwater discharge near Big Spring and north of Sugarloaf Peak result from geologic barriers that restrict lateral groundwater flow and force water into Hat Creek. The inferred groundwater-flow barriers divide the aquifer system into at least three leaky compartments. The two downstream compartments lose streamflow in the upstream reaches (immediately downstream of the groundwater-flow barriers) and gain in downstream reaches with the greatest inflows immediately upstream of the barriers.

Research areas: Land Surface/Agriculture Indicators
Methodology to obtain highly resolved SO2 vertical profiles for representation of volcanic emissions in climate models (2021)

Abstract. In this study we describe a methodology to create high-vertical-resolution SO2 profiles from volcanic emissions. We demonstrate the method's performance for the volcanic clouds following the eruption of Sarychev in June 2009. The resulting profiles are based on a combination of satellite SO2 and aerosol retrievals together with trajectory modelling. We use satellite-based measurements, namely lidar backscattering profiles from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite instrument, to create vertical profiles for SO2 swaths from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the Aqua satellite. Vertical profiles are created by transporting the air containing volcanic aerosol seen in CALIOP observations using the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) while preserving the high vertical resolution using the potential temperatures from the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application) meteorological data for the original CALIOP swaths. For the Sarychev eruption, air tracers from 75 CALIOP swaths within 9 d after the eruption are transported forwards and backwards and then combined at a point in time when AIRS swaths cover the complete volcanic SO2 cloud. Our method creates vertical distributions for column density observations of SO2 for individual AIRS swaths, using height information from multiple CALIOP swaths. The resulting dataset gives insight into the height distribution in the different sub-clouds of SO2 within the stratosphere. We have compiled a gridded high-vertical-resolution SO2 inventory that can be used in Earth system models, with a vertical resolution of 1 K in potential temperature, 61  56 m, or 1.8  2.9 mbar.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions
Zircon double-dating of Quaternary eruptions on Jeju Island, South Korea (2021)

Models of volcanic eruption periodicity are vital for hazard prediction, but require an understanding of the past pattern of melt evolution and transport. Zircon double-dating combines (U-Th)/He methods with U-Pb or U-Th disequilibrium geochronology to determine the timing of volcanic eruptions for rocks with a particular emphasis on those younger than ca. 1 Ma. This paper focuses on the Jeju Island intraplate volcano in South Korea, and compares a previously proposed model for trachyte eruption with new zircon double-dating results. <P />The results document four episodes of trachyte eruption on Jeju. The oldest trachytes were erupted at ca. 750-477 ka, followed by an episode at ca. 97-53 ka. Two further eruptive episodes occurred at ca. 31-23 ka and ca. 2 ka. This ca. 2 ka eruption age is the first geochronological documentation of such young eruptive activity from the island. In addition to the new eruption ages, there is evidence for three separate stages of zircon crystallisation, which are correlated with the three oldest eruption stages. The strong temporal correlation of zircon crystallisation and eruption on Jeju points to a simple magmatic plumbing system. These observations have important implications for hazard monitoring and mitigation on Jeju Island by highlighting the historical trachyte eruptions and the magmatic tempo for this system.

Research areas: Volcanic Eruptions