Football Outsiders Football Outsiders ( FO ) is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL . The site is run by a staff of regular writers , who produce a series of weekly columns using both the site ' s in - house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games . In 2005 and 2006 , the site partnered with FOXSports . com to cross - publish many of the Outsiders ' regular features , including power rankings based on a " weighted " version of the DVOA ( Defense - adjusted Value Over Average ) statistic . In 2007 , Football Outsiders content appeared on FOXSports . com ( in a reduced capacity ) along with AOL Sports and ESPN . com . In 2008 and 2009 the site has partnered exclusively with ESPN and provides mostly ESPN Insider content . History . Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz , with two regular columns , one of which was using an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic . The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run . Over the course of time , the site added more writers , and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003 . Between 2004 and 2005 , the site introduced new statistics such as Defense - adjusted Points Above Replacement ( DPAR , later Defense - adjusted " Yards " Above Replacement , DYAR ) and Adjusted Line Yards ( ALY ) . In 2005 , the site began to cross - publish many of its columns on FOXsports . com . In 2005 , Football Outsiders also took over publication of " Pro Football Prospectus " , a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season . In 2009 , the annual was renamed " Football Outsiders Almanac " . Currently , the site has incorporated the 1991 - 2011 NFL seasons into their statistics . Key Metrics . Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different metrics . DVOA . DVOA ( Defense - adjusted Value Over Average ) calculates a team ' s success based on the down - and - distance of each play during the season , then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average . According to Football Outsiders , DVOA " breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation , adjusted for the strength of the opponent . . . . Football has one objective - - to get to the end zone - - and two ways to achieve that , by gaining yards and getting first downs . These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player ' s value or a team ' s performance . " There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams , which " compare [ s ] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick , catch , and return . " DYAR . DYAR ( Defense - adjusted Yards Above Replacement ) calculates each player ' s cumulative value above or below a " replacement - level " alternative . DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player ' s total value through the course of a year , and not on a play - for - play average . States Football Outsiders , " DVOA , by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic , doesn ’ t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league - average level over the course of an above - average number of plays . By definition , an average level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed . " Adjusted Line Yards . Adjusted Line Yards ( ALY ) " differentiate [ s ] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line . " ALY attempts to " separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line ( and other offensive blockers ) and the effect of the defense . . . . Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations : Losses , 0 - 4 yards , 5 - 10 yards , and 11 + yards . In general , the offensive line is 20 % more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards , but 50 % less responsible for yardage gained from 5 - 10 yards , and not responsible for yardage past that . Thus , the creation of Adjusted Line Yards . " Drive Stats . Drive Stats calculate a team ' s average success rate on a possession - by - possession basis : " [ E ] ach team ' s total number of drives as well as average yards per drive , points per drive , touchdowns per drive , punts per drive , and turnovers per drive , interceptions per drive , and fumbles lost per drive . LOS / Drive represents average starting field position ( line of scrimmage ) per drive from the offensive point of view . Drive stats are given for offense and defense , with NET representing simply offense minus defense . " Pythagorean projection . Another metric Football Outsiders uses is Pythagorean projection , which estimates wins in a season by a formula originally conceived by baseball analyst Bill James , that takes the square of team points , and divides it by the sum of the squares of team points scored and allowed . The 2011 edition of " Football Outsiders Almanac " states , " From 1988 through 2004 , 11 of 16 Super Bowl s were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins , while only seven were won - - ( ) 14 : 42 , 3 February 2013 ( UTC ) by the team with the most actual victories . Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots , 2000 Ravens , 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos . " Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less - successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005 - 2008 , it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010 . Furthermore , " [ t ] he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year - to - year improvement . Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year ; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagoerean projection tend to improve the following year , particularly if they were at or above . 500 despite their underachieving . For example , the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8 - 8 despite 9 . 5 Pythagorean wins , hinting at the improvement that came with the next year ' s championship season . " DVOA Results . Each year , Football Outsiders calculates the best and worst teams , per play , with the DVOA metric ( see above ) . Below is a list of the highest - and lowest - rated teams in the league in each year from 1992 - 2011 . Pro Football Prospectus and Football Outsiders Almanac . From 2005 through 2008 , Football Outsiders published the " Pro Football Prospectus " book each year before the football season began . It included an essay for each team analyzing the previous season , evaluating off - season moves , and projecting future performance . In 2009 , Football Outsiders did not publish a " Pro Football Prospectus " volume , but instead produced the self - published " Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 " . The reason for this is explained in the book : " So why the name change , and why aren ’ t we in bookstores ? " For those who don ’ t know , our first four books were published through an agreement with Prospectus Entertainment Ventures , the company that owns Baseball Prospectus ( as well as the expansion projects Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus ) . It was PEV that had the publishing contract ( first with Workman , then Plume ) . This year , for various reasons , Plume decided they no longer wanted to publish books related to other sports besides baseball . Other publishers were interested in doing our book , but by the time Plume made their decision , it was too late to get on the publication schedule for 2009 . " Each " Football Outsiders Almanac " begins with a " Pregame Show , " which " gives a basic look at some of the most important precepts that have emerged during seven years of Football Outsiders research . " These observations are trends which have developed over time , and sometimes defy conventional wisdom . Some observations Football Outsiders have noted are : The full list is posted on the Football Outsiders website . Management . Editor - in - Chief : Aaron Schatz < br > Assistant Editors : Rivers McCown , Danny Tuccitto < br > Senior Writers : Doug Farrar , Mike Tanier < br > Technical Director : Elias Holman