Salvo combat model The salvo combat model provides a mathematical representation of missile battles between modern warships . It was developed by Wayne Hughes at the U . S . Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey . The salvo model describes the basic elements of modern missile combat in a very simple manner . This is similar to how Lanchester ' s Square Law provides a simple model of modern gun combat . The model ' s structure . Basic form . Suppose that two naval forces , Red and Blue , are engaging each other in combat . The battle begins with Red firing a salvo of missiles at Blue . The Blue ships try to shoot down those incoming missiles . Simultaneously , Blue launches a salvo that Red tries to intercept . This exchange of missile fire can be modeled as follows . Let symbol " A " represent the number of combat units ( warships or other weapon platforms ) in the Red force at the beginning of the battle . Each one has " offensive firepower α " , which is the number of offensive missiles accurately fired per salvo at the enemy . Each one also has " defensive firepower y " , which is the number of incoming enemy missiles intercepted per salvo by its active defenses . Each ship has " staying power w " , which is the number of enemy missile hits required to put it out of action . Equivalently , one could say that each attacking missile can cause damage equal to a fraction " u = 1 / w " of a Red ship . The Blue force is represented in a similar manner . Blue has " B " units , each with offensive firepower " β " , defensive firepower " z " , and staying power " x " . Each missile that hits will cause damage " v = 1 / x " . The salvo combat model calculates the number of ships lost on each side using the following pair of equations . Here , " ΔA " represents the change in the number of Red ' s ships from one salvo , while " ΔB " represents the change in the number of Blue ships . Each equation starts by calculating the total number of offensive missiles being launched by the attacker . It then subtracts the total number of interceptions by the defender . The number of remaining ( non - intercepted ) offensive missiles is multiplied by the amount of damage caused per missile to get the total amount of damage . If there are more defensive interceptions than offensive missiles , then the total damage is zero ; it cannot be negative . Mathematically , the salvo equations can be thought of as difference equations or recurrence relations . They are also an example of operations research . A stochastic ( or probabilistic ) version of the model also exists . In this version , the ship parameters listed above are random variables instead of constants . This means that the result of each salvo also varies randomly . The stochastic model can be incorporated into a computer spreadsheet and used instead of the Monte Carlo method of computer simulation . Relation to Lanchester ' s laws . The salvo equations are related to Lanchester ' s Square Law equations , with two main differences . First , the basic salvo equations form a discrete time model , whereas Lanchester ' s original equations form a continuous time model . Cruise missiles typically are fired in relatively small quantities . Each one has a high probability of hitting its target , if not intercepted , and carries a relatively powerful warhead . Therefore it makes sense to model them as a discrete pulse ( or salvo ) of firepower . By comparison , bullets or shells in a gun battle are typically fired in large quantities . Each round has a relatively low chance of hitting its target , and does a relatively small amount of damage . Therefore it makes sense to model them as a small but continuous stream of firepower . Second , the salvo equations include defensive firepower , whereas Lanchester ' s original equations include only offensive firepower . Cruise missiles can be intercepted ( shot down ) by active defenses , such as surface - to - air missiles and anti - aircraft guns . By comparison , it is generally not practical to intercept bullets and shells during a gun battle . Applications of the model . Types of warfare . The salvo model primarily represents naval missile battles , such as those that occurred during the Falklands War . Offensive firepower represents anti - ship cruise missiles such as the Harpoon , the Exocet and the Styx . Defensive firepower represents air defense missiles such as the Standard , as well as anti - aircraft guns such as the Phalanx . However , one can adapt the model to other kinds of battles having similar characteristics . For example , some authors have used it study World War II battles between aircraft carriers , such as the Battle of the Coral Sea . In this case , the offensive firepower consists of dive bombers and torpedo bombers . The defensive firepower consists of fighter aircraft that try to intercept those bombers . The model could also describe battles such that torpedoes are the main form of offensive firepower , such as in the Battle of Savo Island . In this case , the defensive firepower would be zero , since so far there is no effective way to actively intercept torpedoes . Development of tactics . The salvo combat model can help with research on a variety of issues in naval warfare . For example , one study examined the value of having accurate information about an enemy fleet . Another study examined how many missiles would be required to achieve a desired probability of success when attacking several targets at once . Researchers have also analyzed the mathematical properties of the model itself . The initial goal of such research is to get a better understanding of how the model works . A more important objective is to see what the model might suggest about the behavior of real missile battles . This could help with the development of better modern naval tactics for attacking with and defending against such missiles .