mass panics, and then likely leading up to civil unrests developing into civil wars anytime around 2010. The Dunning–Kruger effect [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect ] is a cognitive bias in which "people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it." [ 1 ]