Document type: PAPER-TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

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176-10037-10470

JFK ASSASSINATION SYSTEM

IDENTIFICATION FORM

AGENCY : NARA

RECORD NUMBER : 176-10037-10470

RECORD SERIES : National Security Files

AGENCY FILE NUMBER :

ORIGINATOR : WH

FROM : Kaysen

TO : Kennedy, John F

TITLE : Cover Memo with CIA Cable for Kaysen

DATE : 7/5/1962

PAGES : 5

SUBJECTS :

DOCUMENT TYPE :

CLASSIFICATION :

RESTRICTIONS :

CURRENT STATUS :

DATE OF LAST REVIEW : 9/10/2000

OPENING CRITERIA :

COMMENTS : National Security Files, Box 196: Countries, Vietnam, General 7/1/62-

7/6/62. Box 6.

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(

1: Vietnam

THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

July 6, 1962

Baker fun Pres

Huck-and reading

its

116/62)

SECRET

Mr. President:

The attached message from CIA sums up very well the whole

Lao-South Vietnam infiltration problem which I mentioned to you

briefly yesterday.

As I told you, the military on the spot (General Harkins) and

State agree with these estimates.

They also agree in denying that

either of them was responsible for the backgrounder that produced

the story. However, it is clear from paragraph one of this

message that some American in the Kontum area did talk to the

UPI correspondent. Both the military and State now realize very

well that this is the kind of thing they better not do again.

ia.

CK

Attachment

SECRET

DECLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958, Sec. 3.6

NLIS 99-54

By MCP NARA, DOrO 1/01

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16.

. INCOMING MESSAGE

3527/1AD

THE WHITE HOUSE

SECRET

WHASA

FROM: CIA

5 JULY 1962

PRIORITY

: WHITE HOUSE

MASON SE

NOV

INFO :

CITE :

ATTN: MR. KAYSEN

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE FROM CIA STATION IN SAIGON RECEIVED IN

WASHINGTON AS IN 23562 IS IN RESPONSE TO THE REQUEST MADE ON 4 JULY

BY MR. KAYSEN TO MR. FENDIG OF CIA CONCERNING THE TRUMBULL STORY IN

4 JULY NEW YORK TIMES:

"1. THE CIA STATION, SAIGON, HAS MADE EXTENSIVE CHECK IN EFFORT

DISCOVER SOURCES OF FIGURES AND INSPIRATION FOR SPECULATIONS IN TRUMBULL

ARTICLE, BUT ALL WE HAVE ABLE FIND OUT WAS THAT FIGURE OF 8,000 TO

9,000 RECENT INFILTRATORS ORIGINALLY FILED BY UPI CORRESPONDENT ON.

BASIS BRIEFINGS HE RECEIVED FROM UNIDENTIFIED SOURCES IN KONTUM DURING

RECENT VISIT. TRUMBULL PRESUMABLY PICKED UP FIGURE FROM •UP! REPORT,

TIED IT

IN WITH HIS OWN PRECONCEPTIONS TO FASHION WHAT SEEMS TO US A

HIGHLY EXAGGERATED AND SPECULATIVE REPORT:

"2. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE INDICATION FROM INFO AVAILABLE TO US

HERE THAT TO DATE THERE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ANY MASS TRANSFER OF PAVN

PAGE

SEC

1

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SECRET

ELEMENTS FROM LAOS TO SOUTH VIETNAM: ALTHOUGH THIS ALWAYS POSSIBILITY

•AND IS OF COURSE SOURCE SERIOUS CONCERN GVN, SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT

BULK OF PAVN ELEMENTS ACCEPTED AS BEING CURRENTLY DEPLOYED IN LAOS ARE

BELIEVED BE LOCATED EITHER ALONG ROUTE 7 OR IN NORTHERN LAOS.

THEIR REDEPLOYMENT INTO SOUTH VIETNAM WOULD SEEM POSE AT LEAST AS MANY

DIFFICULTIES AS INFILTRATION FRESH ELEMENTS DIRECTLY FROM NORTH VIETNAM

: VIA LAOS. MOREOVER MOST THESE UNITS PROBABLY COMPOSED NORTHERNERS,

WHO WHILE PERHAPS SUITABLE FOR OPERATIONS IN NORTHERN LAOS WOULD BE

FAR LESS SUITABLE FOR SOUTH VIETNAM THAN LARGE POOL REGROUPED SOUTHERNERS

MANY OF WHOM INCORPORATED INTO 305TH, 324TH AND 338TH DIVISIONS.

"3. RE TRUMBULL'S SPECULATION ON "REPORTED PLAN" FOR "LIBERATED

AREA," THIS OF COURSE SOMETHING WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE;

HOWEVER, HANOI'S CURRENT PROPAGANDA STANCE CONTAINS NO HINT OF EARLY

ESTABLISHMENT RIVAL GOVERNMENT IN SOUTH NOR IS THERE ANY SUGGESTION

OF THIS IN OTHER REPORTING ON SUBUECT. STATION INCLINED THINK EARLY

MOVE THIS DIRECTION WOULD BE ILL-TIMED FROM COMMIE STANDPOINT,

COMING AS IT WOULD ON HEELS OF ICC DECISION ON SUBVERSION,

ESTABLISHMENT OF LAOS COALITION AND IMPENDING 14-NATION GENEVA

AGREEMENT ON LAOS. QUESTION SETTING UP RIVAL GOVT MAY WELL HAVE BEEN

SUBJECT CONVERSATION BETWEEN HO

CHI MINH AND RUSSIANS AT MOSCOW,

BUT WE TEND TO DOUBT RUSSIANS WOULD BE VERY KEEN ON ITS EARLY

ESTABLISHMENT SINCE IT WOULD VIRTUALLY FORCE THEM PROVIDE OPEN AID TO

SECRET

PAGE 2 OF 4.

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SECRET

VC, THUS LEADING TO ESCALATION IN. TERMS OF CONFLICT HERE WHICH

WE WOULD NOT THINK SOVIETS AT THIS JUNCTURE PREPARED ACCEPT.

"4.. RE ESTIMATE RECENT INFILTRATIONS WHICH TRUMBULL ATTRIBUTED TO

GVN, THE CIA STATION IS UNABLE ASCERTAIN WHAT ELEMENT GUN GAVE HIM

FIGURE, BUT TOTAL CONSIDERABLY IN EXCESS WHAT MACU CARRYING. OF

POSSIBLE INTEREST IS FOLLOWING MACV ESTIMATE MONTHLY FLOW

INFILTRATIONS FROM JUNE 1961 UNTIL PRESENT:. FROM JUNE TO DEC 1961,

500-1000 PER MONTH; FROM JAN TO APRIL 1962, 100-200 PER MONTH;

MAY AND JUNE, 800-1000. ESTIMATE BASED ON ANALYSIS CERTAIN CIA

REPORTS (MAINLY FROM ARVN G-2 REPRESENTATIVES IN LIAISON AT .

SAVANNAKHET WITH FAR G-2), ON-THE-SPOT CONVERSATIONS IN PLEIKU WITH

II CORPS INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS. AND THE MAAG ADVISOR THERE, AND ESTIMATES

GVN JOINT GENERAL STAFF J-2. ALTHOUGH MACU J-2 READILY AGREES HARD •

INFO ON SUBJECT DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN, ITS ESTIMATE APPARENTLY MADE ONLY

AFTER CONSIDERABLE STUDY OF PROBLEM AND IS PROBABLY FAR CLOSER TO

TRUTH THAN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER GUN ESTIMATES. "

CIA HEADQUARTERS COMMENT:

WE BELIEVE THE FIGURES USED BY THE NEW YORK TIMES ARE GROSSLY

EXAGGERATED THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF INCREASING INFILTRATION

SINCE EARLY MAY. EVEN THESE REPORTS ARE TENUOUS ALTHOUGH THEY DO

SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE TRAILS. THERE HAS

PAGE 3 OF 4

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BEEN NO CONFIRMATION THAT NORTH VIETNAMESE TROOPS HAVE BEGUN WITHDRAWING

FROM. LAOS. WHILE WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME COVERT WITHDRAWAL OF

NORTH VIETNAMESE FROM LAOS FOLLOWING AN AGREEMENT AT GENEVA AND THAT

INFILTRATION INTO SOUTH VIETNAM PROBABLY WILL BE ACCELERATED, WE DO NOT

THINK THAT THE BULK OF NORTH VIETNAMESE IN LAOS WOULD BE TRANSFERRED

TO SOUTH VIETNAM. PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE NORTH VIETNAMESE

NORMALLY PUT INFILTRATORS THROUGH SPECIAL TRAINING AND INDOCTRINATION

BEFORE SENDING THEM SOUTH.

DTG: 052150Z

PAGE

SECRE

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