INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION CABLE: SUBJECT - EFFECT OF CUBA'S ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES ON FIDEL CASTRO'S POSITION
Agency: CIA
Originator: CIA
Document date: 12/11/64
Document type: PAPER-TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

Intelligence Information Cable

• ROUTINE

COUNTRY CUBA

DATE OF

INFO.

NOVEMBER - EARLY DECEMBER 1964

- SUBJECT.

EFFECT OF CUBA'S ECONONIC DIFFICULTIES ON

FIDEL CASTRO'S POSITION

TDCS DB-315/01631-64

DISTR 11 DECEMBER 1964

PLACE &

DATE ACQ. 6 DECEMBER 1964

REF

IN- 38266

SOURCE

FIELD REPORT NO.

• AND

APPRAISAL: A FORMER HIGH-LEVEL CUBAN OFFICIAL WHO WAS ONCE ACTIVE IN THE

REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT AND A CONFIDANT OF FIDEL CASTRO. HE HAS

ALWAYS BEEN ANTI-CONSUNIST AND IS NOW STRONGLY ANTI-CASTRO.

HE

CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH MANY CUBAN OFFICIALS AT ALL

LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT.

SOURCE HAS PROVIDED A LIMITED NUMBER OF

REPORTS WHICH APFEAR TO HAVE BEEN ACCURATE.

-

1. CUBA IS PACED WITH SERIOUS ECONONIC DIFFICULTIES: THE

COUNTRY HAS MANY PROBLEMS WHICH DEFY SOLUTION, BUT WHAT WORRIES

FIDEL CASTRO THE MOST IS THAT HE IS UNABLE TO SEE ANY SOLUTION TO

THE CRISIS. ALL ECONONIC PLANS END IN FAILURE. CASTRO BLAMES THE

PERSONALITIES INVOLVED AND PUBLICLY CASTICATES THESI, BUT HE REFUSES

TO BELIEVE THE SISTEN IS WRONG. AS A RESULI, CASTRO ASSUMES PER-

SONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR MORE PROGRAMS, FEWER PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO

ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR PLANNING, AND EVEN CASTRO IS UNABLE TO

DIRECT ALL THE PROGRAMS HE HAS UNDERTAKEN.

This material consains Information alecting the National Defense of tbe United States within the menaleg of the Hiploange Laws, Title

the transmincion or revelation of which la any mannes to an unnutbarleed person la prohibited by law.

STATE/INCR

REPCINCIAYY

TREASURY

NO DIUSLY ABROAD/BACKGROUND USE ONLY

SECDEE MISA NIC XIS JANS OCI ONE OCR ORE CO FBI

COLMERCE

EXO

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• SECRET

TDCS DB-315/

01631-64

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2. CUBA REALIZES THAT THE USSR CANNOT ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY

FOR ALL OF CUBA'S SCONOYIC NEEDS UNDER EXISTING CONDITIONS. THERE-

FORE, CUBA HAS CHANGED HER FOREIGY COUMERCIAL POLICY AND IS NOW

PLACING INCREASED EMPHASIS ON TRADE WITH NON-BLOC COUNTRIES.

INITIALLY, WHEN CUBA HAD AMPLE FOREIGN EXCHANGE, THE POLICY OF IN-

CREASING TRADE WITH NON-BLOC COUNTRIES SHOWED SOME PROMISE, BUT

WITH INADEQUATE EXCHANGE FACILITIES, AS AT PRESENT,, CUBA IS UNABLE

TO MEET TERS OF EXISTING CONMERCIAL AGREEMENTS AND IS FINDING IT

DIFFICULT TO NEGOTIATE NEW AGREEMENTS. THE FEW AGREEMENTS WHICH

HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATED CONTAIN TERMS UNPAVORABLE TO CUBA.

• 3. CUBA'S ECONCHIC-CONMERCIAL DILEMMA IS THE PRIMARY REASON

WHY CUBAN AMBASSADOR TO FRANCE ANTONIO CARRILLO CARRERAS RETURNED

TO HAVANA ON 1 DECEMBER. (HEADQUARTERS COMMENT: SEE TDCS-314/06460-

64.) PIERRE NIETO, FRENCH BUSINESSHAN WHO IS IN HAVANA, IS PROPOS-

ING A SIXTY-MILLION-DOLLAR TRADS PACKAGE FOR WHICH NIETO CLAIMS HE

CAN ARRANGE FRENCH FINANCING. THIS IS ONE OF THE SPECIFICS WHICH

CARRILLO, WHO DISLIKES NIETO, IS DISCUSSING WITH FIDEL CASTRO AND

ERNESTO "CHE" CUEVARA, (FIELD COSMENT: SOURCE, WHO LEFT HAVANA IN

EARLY NOVESBER 1964, NOTED THAT A FEW WEEKS BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE

TERS WAS A DISTINCT CHANGE IN THE ATTITUDE OF HIGH CUBAN OFFICIALS

WIFE RESPECT TO THS UNITED STATES. ON THE BASIS OF CONVERSATIONS

WITH OFFICIALS CLOSE TO FIDEL CASTRO, NEOM SOURCE DID NOT IDENTIFY,

SOURCE BECAME CONVINCED THAT CASTRO IS WILLING TO ENTER INTO COM-

• MERCIAL DIALOGUS WITH THE UNITED STATES AND IS SEARCHING FOR

OPEÑINGS TO DO SO.)

• SECRET.

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1. BECAUSE CASTRO IS ASSUMING PERSONAL RESPOSSIBILITY FOR

BLANTY OF CUBA'S ECONGNIC PROGRAYS AND IS ALSO FAILING, MORE PEOPLE

ARE BSGINNING TO CRITICIZE HIM, ALTHOUCH SUT TO THE EXTENT OF DIS-

CUSSING TRE POSSIBILITY OF REXOTISE HIM FROM POWER, (SOURCE COMMENT:

CASTRO REVAINS THE SOLS KEY DO THE CUBAN PROBLEM AND WHILE HE IS IN

PLACE NO ONE DARES ATTEYPS TO CECANIZE A COLF AGAINSI HIS RÉGISE.)

(HEADQUARTERS CONNENT: RUYORS ABOUT THE EVENTS WHICH LED TO THE"

DISKISSAL ON 19 NOVEMBER OF JOAQUIN ORDOQUE VESA SUCGEST THAT

SOURCE'S THESIS MAY NUT BE COMPLETELY VALID; CSDB-312/01269-64 IS

ALONG REPORTS WHICH INDICATE THAT ORDOQUI HID BEEN PLANNING A COUP.)

5. ALTHOUCH THEY ARS OPPOSED TO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN CUBA, IN-

DIVIDUALS LIKE EFIGENTO AYRIJEIRAS DEIGADO, VICE-KINISTER OF SPECIAL

AFFAIRS OF THE APHED FORCES, AND JOSS N. NARAITO, PRESIDENT OF THE

COXMITTEE OF COORDINATION, EXECLTION AND INSPSCTIOS (JUCEI) IN

HAVANA, ARE AFRAID TO PARTICIPATE IN OR EVSY PLAN A MOVE AGAINST

CASTED. OTHER PERSONS WEO REACH & POINT OF TOTAL FRUSTRATION EITHER

LEAVE CUBA IF THEY CAN, OR RESIG! THEIR POSITIONS AS DID JOSE ASSEF ..

YARA. ASSEF HAD BEEN OFFERED THE JOB AS JUCEI CHIEF IS VARIARAO

BUT HE WAS CONVINCED OF THE N32D TO PEFLACE EVERY HICH OFFICIAL IN

TEE MINICIPALITY, AID HE BELIEVED RE WOULD NCT RECEIVE THS BACKING

OF TFE RÉGIME IF HE DID SO. ASSES HOW ATTENDS CLASSES AT HAVANA

UNIVERSITY AND HOPES TO CONTINUE HIS MEDICAL STUDIES. DE, JUAN

NUIRY SANCHEZ, ASSISTANT TO THE VICS-RECTOR OF EDUCATION OF HAVANA

UNIVERSITY, IS NOTRER PERSON WEO REMAINS CONCERTED ABOUT THE DIS-

ASTROL'S SITUATION EN CUBA. (FIDO CORENT:

SOURCE EXPRESSED

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COYVICTION THAT WITHOUT ADMITTING IT OPENLY MORE AND SORE OFFICIALS

IN THE RÉGINS WERE REACHING THE CONCLUSION HE HAD REACHED SOME TIME

ACO, THAT "THE ONLY CURE FOR RABIES IS TO GET RID OF THE DOG. ")

6. FIELD DISSEL: CINCLANI, CINCSO.

END OF HESSAGS

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