Document type: PAPER-TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

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176-10036-10084

JFK ASSASSINATION SYSTEM

IDENTIFICATION FORM

AGENCY : NARA

RECORD NUMBER : 176-10036-10084

• RECORD SERIES : National Security Files

AGENCY FILE NUMBER :

ORIGINATOR : DOS

FROM :

TO :

TITLE : Estimate (A)DRV Courses

DATE : 1/8/1962

PAGES : 10

SUBJECTS :

DOCUMENT TYPE :

CLASSIFICATION :

RESTRICTIONS :

CURRENT STATUS :

DATE OF LAST REVIEW : 9/10/2000

OPENING CRITERIA :

COMMENTS : National Security Files, Box 196: Vietnam, 1/62. Box 2

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## Page 2

FROM

TO:

For

Use Orily

STROLLTY

NS INDIÇATOR

FOREIGN StA VICE DESPATCH

Amembassy SAIGON

15/k-00 1-862

276

THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE, WASHING

anuary 8, 1962

дт

FE

Copies.

MEA

-Series W

INA

E

1:0

FE

AGR :

L. A 8

AR

CAVE

11-62

NAY

032.

Estirate off (e) DRV Courses of Action re SYN and b) DEy Reaction to

Escalation of US military Measures In SVN

"hea

COPY MY

A SERIES B

valanes

ANYRODUCTION: AND SUMMARY.

cts likely future DRy military, and

to South Viet, Hem, pointe up

inist factors

which mes

sotion, and.

the

rega

Theo DRY

Ke

de

КЕКУ

AweL

noting

161B:

aunternationn

Сорто фи во стор, о корд рого, ру мо вала тор

Singaparer, Rangoon,

Pou JAve nde nhal Y/50b/mc

SECRETE?

For Depariment Us. Daly To be Filled la oa Yellow Original: ONE Y

PORCHES

CLASSIFIED

SANITIZED NIK :02: 310 10/2

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## Page 3

SECROI

Page 2 i

Despe tend 276

Brow Saigon

R3SCA81200-01U5

miltery noves in South Viet Hen to

counter laters cation of the pRil canaden for take t

ver of st rould likely ve metely further escalation pya

th

- DaY'e freedon on action is, however, probaol

1571

ted brits desire to avoid the internel consequences

ofs

Soviet Chicon areagreement over the risks or elopal

тет

In Soutreast 2S

felt as its traditional tear

and

Chi

In vie for these endiother factored

threat by the

hit selected tergete in asth,

et-Nemby

na vát heans rould stand, a good lahance

achievin

the

objective of compelling the DRysto ick

ceases or dampen down

its ederession ega is tisvi..

ARE DRY S

action

nt be

In cong iderablo menante. by the

about

eems doubt

ful frat

appeal

959

Perfor ebout

1500 2000K(cs

120,000;

and

ions: have

porica

Octo

of Increasi

Vietcong

CO

Kodit ton in Engi lah published

In Hanois loathe fal isc

SECRET

51.961:

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## Page 4

20)

"Page 3.

From Seigon

excanded over the countryside (as during the indochine Wer), eil admin

istration bas disintesated in recy rural arees, and the economy -(par-

ticarly rice, the minstay.cropy and rotentiaily rubber, the biggest. export

earned nor seriously affected.

3ott sens clear that the Day military encort is capable, at leest

in certain ereas of SV, of attairine Giants second atege of "mobile.?

warfers" the stage et mich "principles of reguler merfere graduelly

appear ena develop.

This tres. rost apparent in the three large-scele

Nion cons actions in Septener, 1961, nonth of Kontun, south of me

ere to on to try depture of, the capitel Of huo, Thanh

a Viet Core force estimated at 1,000

Tise dog not mean that ug overationg have, reached the pecond

stoss deaners southed fome

nor thete the progression in,

the ivo

Ariapre

сев

there

is

traight line.

-As Giặp

Ch

in the:

seconds tage

eppe

ei

Sou

Vie

Se

cen

hu ca

Fan

OL

reds

cale

nce.

and

е др

of

08

E.B.

th

8ng

DR

CAuS

9301

Larger

the

cate

DE

tack:

Cong

3511,000 for more

done

the

Ang

nOT"

or Oldestro

enco

Sto

ving

bable

Hu itency by sube

tary moston march bas

recen

tly visited Torto, let-Nam mayet ends tor increase, the number:

Larger

The ir

timins hay howeve

be influenced by the estent o

IS diplom tid and

tary preoccuration elsewher

6e Politically

pR.wD..undoubtedlyz.contznuerapplica

united Dronths

reasserted atthe lao long

Partyncongressing

September 1960 end initiated vi th sthe establiahment in December 1960

the

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## Page 5

SEGRET

Page 4

Despatch: 276

Fron Saigoni

of the "Erons for the laberacion of Souto Tiet ham.

foese tastics, for

molisical strusale are also aproved by Ciep in his book, and eze

sobrongly died et obtairins cariman political support anong the peopard

for the military take over outlined by Giap and may help to eccelerate:

the tire table for that tale over

E76r auture application on the

karated onto testics include the

possibilityros either or both of the followings*

ESTAN

e. Exploitation of the possibilities which would be offered bys

the attented overthron of the Dien Government by non-Comnists t The

arie+ cons do not rave burricient militery strength at this time to seized

Forever they tient

1134

To be a ton on south vai san

on question orses tablishmen tron independent and, democretlo edmints tration!

a plot out tipp

# Seed

captured Comminist documents on the tire hope to do to

SECRET

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## Page 6

SECRET

Page 5-

Dearetca 276

Fron Saigon

•in aziscent Laos*

areuver may vell depend to a considerable degree on the state of inter-

patzonel opinion about (e) the responsibility fos the mar in Viet Nom and (D)

the-extent of the Glla support among the people At the very least these

Factors-could affect. the.timing.of.eny. Dry decision.on/establishmnt.of.a

Hiberation goverument.

Concert overts, reaction may be an inhibiting fector towara the

DevI si novig ahead m this uch a maneuvery or at. thes

least to an airilet

eploitation of this developmante

irbe Dev might be deterred bilthe reeling

aroblems

Probable

sosaction

ibeen

hampered!

Co

•077

commun

importance

over viet

question

Up

he

to

the

present

9180%8

101.

152180105

HOL

its goal,

tak ine

orship-or

Chicom

conflict

theta

en

probably:

ag longes the brid milita

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## Page 7

SECREE

Despa ten: 276

ron Seigout

actirities in South Viet to do not serously, entail enbroilnent of the

ISSE and Conminist Chine to an ezplosire disgreement. over the riska of

Mit seans likely that the DeY can determine mithconstero

Independence /in too genta in the bloo the tactice which it vill follo

In purault of its goal in Viet Man, The DRV is efter ally seekins and

etrace on of the territory controiled by Communists goal to: which bott

As 5S and Communa Chira subscribe, and both are mobably withs to

come ma tery super ten or this purpose ve thout necessari in prescribare

mon toe Ru.should conductettself The DRy Leeders vere, noreover nue

accustomed during the Indochina far to considerable freedon in the chotce

there eppears to berno good reason my thi kabbalan

not continueras. long as areastot sensitivity betweenthoUssP an comans

Ching, ven be evolded

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## Page 8

(29)

SECRET

Posalile Escalation cE US lilitar

L2beL3: DRV. Reactzön

Page 73

• Despatch, 275

Wrom Saison

Neegures

Aggumptions?

the situation in Stab even, though there nay toe zone ingresse

how effectiveness, mul o

continue to deteriosate both because of

escalation on

the bar side and enadequate Gi political sad orcanizational

countermeasures.

the purpose of is action do to cause the dRy to conse and

testet matte progran of eered ion es tust the republic of viet tan

sirs val operetions of US units lur South

VietNam ends icreesed use of Mall round forces advisors tor operet lon

pleniaz and follow through:The Vamould probably contine present

dent cover teasures on dirt

ation end supportros vc lastwell as creation

additionaPared units basedion. local recruitment (by-both.coercion

pe

ussion, end cap

tUT

arms

The VC under.

AHano Fis alrea

dition

the past.,

would probabi

to

Seek

mo

un

incidentsedest

a 0.

feat

adverse ly the luage

s ofe USrasgiatan

10000

Let

kan

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## Page 9

SECRET

Pige: e

Des patch 276,591

Frou 58180b

is connat ground forcestor erison on merusduty ir" South

VietNam to boiséez vietrenege: nogale end/of free Gill guera forces to di

Gerati me Day mould mecably continue mith reasures of thertype ar

desce bed adore, end misht move tomerd less covert introduction end support

of Cons forces, suchas e decision to use Northernere and/or Communist

Doc arie-all torte opinion Ghouid react adversely to the is move beceuse

as cofuscation gi orld opinion as to to lo responsible fos violation old

une Geneva Accords (the Derror the Ts) and/or an interational belter that.

the us is simply propping up an unpopular goverarents the DRy might best

tempted at this stege to endeavor: to establisha liberation governent!

Horever at com ins likely that, the DRV would move to prenly admittee

Introduction end support of the Viet Cong

150%

Eatswof us round forces into fight

ne sint South Viet Nem?

the DEVe noves ton

covertlintrodu

Cong

ill

avoid rober

VC

uld

com

the

On In, W

* Ruse

IrOn

L9:

migh

berminim

direct

a rada, ad rely ng the ta common.

SECRE1

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## Page 10

SEORET

Pege 9r

Despetch 276

From Saigon

take over in South Viet-lien, bat. frustrating the American forces

The gane

coula become orecof tice patience of the contending forces, nite the DRy

ence of the political casadvantases rich wouis contront the is forces,

in a orolonged metone

fos the campeten in Souta Viet Ham, and rould thus make it nore difficult

pouncrease steasily the intensityrof, that campaign. However, the extent

sto trich a Conmanist-state like horth Vietnam de controlled, plunthem

Limitations with resrect to assets avatlable torour Side to conducte

guerrilla activaties, man thet such program chile, helprul in eute

procabity could notabe decisire in indicing the pRy to censeror cub-

Stantially danged dom ito erforta to täke over Southviet Nem

as desit he.

AUS

called

ot

95

15984

ELS

desir

Stear

or chInese:

Sinc

taue

torbal ence

economto

ocla

no Soviet em

Fogress Beethe

saLe

be

tween th

the, pro-Chic

poseidle enter, into North Viet Nem or Chicon, torcea

Dong:

tys

and

he

noses presence,

3770

resthet

ather previous inderendence

the DEVa leaders and

whose

haratal mght be froblem licen

SECRE

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## Page 11

SECRET

Pege 10:

Despatch: 276

From Saigor

Me DRy decision might seinfluenced by the manner in rhich toe us

eves presented, Quiet presentation brougn diplomeric channels:

Teepecente

the DRy to save face. it segided:

Sit coug also poke Day acceptance eater traino tense of the

to teres

Lept fron, the: Chicons

thereby, reventtig, the Chacons tron

eting pressure? on the day

(Ias recomised it mey not be bossable

to eso monted from ate Oricons sance the pro-Chicon factionen the

DaNt

manu an ibers tezy neel the incoration?

The DeV decision, raghtle so be inflenced by internationel lobinson

ches time the threats nece

omarionastes low as eva

the bar negat calculate

world coirion would reecs

so advetsely to us combardnent offerset

the etna that pee selle the he mable

come led augs conse sno tir arte lection starta

nikoduice

Combatt

and for into roh

SE CPET

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