CIA Information Report
Originator: CIA
Document date: 09/24/1963
Document type: PAPER-TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

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176-10036-10145

2023 RELEASE UNDER THE PRESIDENT JOHN F. KENNEDY ASSASSINATION RECORDS ACT OF 1992

JFK ASSASSINATION SYSTEM

IDENTIFICATION FORM

AGENCY : NARA

RECORD NUMBER : 176-10036-10145

RECORD SERIES : National Security Files

AGENCY FILE NUMBER

ORIGINATOR : CIA

FROM :

TO :

TITLE : CIA Information Report

DATE: 9/24/1963

PAGES: 6

SUBJECTS :

DOCUMENT TYPE :

CLASSIFICATION :

RESTRICTIONS :

CURRENT STATUS :

DATE OF LAST REVIEW : 9/10/2000

OPENING CRITERIA :

COMMENTS : National Security Files, Box 200: Vietnam,9/22/63-10/6/63, CIA

Reports. Box 2

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39n:11U.n

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Prete

TELEGRAM INTURMATION REPURT TELEGRAM

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

This material

information allecting

the National

Delanse of the

United States

the Espronago Lame, Tille 18, U.S.C

Secr

the transmission or revelation

of which in any manner to an unauthorized

is prohibited

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S-E-C-R-E-T

-BELK

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COUNTRY

SOUTH VIETNAM

BRUBECK

_CHASE

REPORT NO. TDCS -3/559,975

SUBJECT

IRAN KIM TUYEN PREDICTS DIRE PROSPECT GENTA DATE DISTR. 24 SEPTEMBER 1953

FOR THE DIEM REGIME IN SOUTH VIETNAM NGAN

FORRESTA PRECEDENCE ROUTINE

DATE OF

SEPTEMBER 1963

HILE COPY

_JOHNSON

KILDUFF

KLEIN

REFERENCES

IN

25166

INFO.

KOMER

PLACE &

SINGAPORE (17 SEPTEMBER 1963)

_PARROTT

DATE ACO.

APPRAISAL

SEE BELOW

-SAUNDERSFIELD REPORT NO. ESS-13408

THIS IS UNEVALUATED INFORMATION. SOURCE GRADINGS ARE PETITIVE. APPRAISAL OF CONTENT IS TENTATIVE.

SOURCE

APPR

AN AMERICAN OBSERVER (B); FROM TRAN KIM TUYEN

WITH DUE RECOGNITION TO THE FACT THAT TRAN KIM TUYEN IS DEFINITELY ANTI-RECIME,

V

HIS VIEWS ARE CONSIDERED OF INTEREST BECAUSE HE KNOWS AND UNDERSTANDS NGO DINH

NHU INTÍMATELY.

• I. SUMMARY. TRAN KIM TUYEN, EXILED WITHOUT HIS FAMILY TO A CONSULATE

POST IN CAIRO, CLAIMED ON 17 SEPTEMBER 1963 THAT IF THE DIEM REGIME IN SOUTH

VIETNAM CONTINUED FOR SIX MORE MONTHS, ALL WOULD BE LOST, THEN NOT EVEN A COUP

D'ETAI COULD SAVE VIETNAM. IF A NEW REGIME IS INSTALLED FAIRLY SOON, HOWEVER,

IT MIGHT HAVE A FIGHTING CHANCE, BUT WITH NGO DINE NHU'S SKILLFUL DIVIDE AND

CONQUER TACIICS FRAGMENTING THE OPPOSITION, IT IS UNLIKELY. TUYEN CLAIMED THAT

NHU IS NOW TRYING TO DELUDE AMERICAN AMBASSADOR HENRY CABOT LODGE, JR., INTO

BELIEVING THAT THE REGIME PLANS REAL REFORMS AND THAT ITS FAULIS HAVE BEEN

EXAGGERATED BY ITS ENEMIES AMONG THE AMERICAN OFFICIALS IN SAIGON. TUYEN'S FRIENDS,

SUCH AS LIEURENANI COLONEL PHAM NGOC THAO, INSPECTOR OF SIRATEGIC HAMLETS ATTACHED TO

THE PRESIDENCI, ARE IN DANGER AS SUSPECIED SUBVERSIVES. PRESSURE MEANWHTLE.

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GROUP I

Earluded from automati

laungroding one

declantication

STATE/ INR DIA ARMY/ACSI NAVY AIR jCS SECDEF NSA MIC A1O USIA OCI ONE OCR

orr, XkX

EVL

STATE/DIR

TELEGRAM

INFORMATION REPORT

TELEGRAM

FORM IKD OBSOLETE PREVIOUS EDITIONS.

5-82

(15-20

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PAGE

• 1.5: MOUNTING AMONG YOUNG BUDDHISTS, STUDENTS, AND JUNIOR ARMY OFFICERS;

GENERAL TRAN VAN DON AND SEVERAL COLLEAGUES REALIZE THEY PLAYED

INTO NGO DINH NHU'S HANDS BUT ARE NOW HELPLESS. AS THE SITUATION

DETERIORATES, EXTREMISTS FEARING THE CONSIDERABLE RISKS OF A COUP

ATTEMPT, WILL TURN TO ASSASSINATION PLOTS IN DESPERATION. THIS WOULD

LEAD TO RETALIATION BY LOYALISTS AGAINST AMERICANS AND TO HOPELESS

CIVIL WAR.

2. UP TO THE TIME OF DR. TUYEN'S HURRIED DEPARTURE ON 12 SEPTEMBER,

THE GOVERNMENT OF VIETNAM. (GVN) WAS TRYING TO RESTORE APPEARANCES OF

NORMALCY AND TO PORTRAY ITSELF AS LABORING UNDER DIFFICULTY OF

COMMUNIST PLOTS AMONG STUDENTS AND BUDDHISTS. UNDER NGO TRONG HIEU;

KNOWN NOW AMONG THE SAIGON POPULACE AS "THE POPE OF THE FALSE

BONZES"; THE GUN HAS PLACED DOCILE BUDDHIST PRIESTS AND MONKS IN

ALL PAGODAS. HIS TALK OF RELEASING ARRESTED STUDENTS AND LIFTING MARTTAL

LAW HOWEVER IMPRESSED MANY WESTERNERS. . THE LIFTING OF MARTIAL LAW .

• IS PURELY NOMINAL; MANY OF THE ALLEGEDLY: "COMMUNIST STUDENT PLOTTERS"

MANHANDLED AND ARRESTED WERE YOUNGER BROTHERS AND SONS OF. PROMINENT

GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. AND MILITARY OFFICERS; GVN REPRESSION AND

BRUTALITY HAS ACTUALLY DRIVEN MANY EMBITTERED STUDENTS WHO WERE

NOT COMMUNISTS TO FLEE TO THE COUNTRYSIDE TO SEEK THE COMMUNISTS

AS THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS; MOST BUDDHISTS REPUDIATE THE GN'S

BONZES, AND ATTENDANCE AT PAGODAS HAS DWINDLED. WITH THE CLOSING

OF TUDO,.. ORDINARY VIETNAMESE NO LONGER TRUST THE PRESS OR RADIO

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3

SAIGON; THOSE WHO CAN DO SO LISTEN TO THE VOICE OF AMERICA (VOA)

BROADCASTS.

3- NHU HAS DECIDED TO FLATTER AMBASSADOR LODGE BY MAKING GRUDGING

CONCESSIONS SUPPOSEDLY AS A RESULT OF THE AMBASSADOR'S NEGOTIATING

PRESSURE (SENDING MADAME NHU OVERSEAS, OSTENSIBLE ENDING MARTIAL

LAW, RESTORING SCHOOLS AND TEMPLES.) NHU HAS TRIED TO BLAME

AMERICAN-GVN. DIFFICULTIES ON AMERICAN CIA PLOTS AGAINST THE REGIME,

PERSONAL HATRED OF JOURNALISTS AND INCUMBENT AMERICAN OFFICIALS OF

NHU, AND THE FAMILY, AND AMERICAN MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE COMMUNIST

AND ANTI-REGIME SUBVERSIVE USES OF THE BUDDHISTS AND STUDENTS.

NHU'S. CHARGES OF AMERICAN PLOTTING WERE SET WITH DERISION BY VIETNAMESE

BUT AMERICANS HAVE LOST MUCH FACE WITH MANY SINCERE NATIONALISTS

BECAUSE THEY TAKE THESE ACCUSATIONS AND YET ARE NOT GUILTY. OF BLAME

WHEN MANY VIETNAMESE WISH THEY WERE.

4. THE VIETNAMESE ARMY HAS SUFFERED MOST FROM THE CURRENT

STALEMATE, BOTH IN MORALE AND IN REPUTATION. THE GENERALS WHO

SUCCUMBED TO NHU'S WILY SCHEMES FOR A SHAM MILITARY TAKEOVER ARE NOW

HELPLESS AND DISCREDITED... GENERAL TRAN VAN DON, COMMANDER IN

CHIEF, SARCASTICALLY RELATED ON TWO OCCASIONS RECENTLY HIS YOUNG SON'S

DERISIVE COMMENT THAT DON IS COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF EVERYTHING BUT CAN

COMMAND NOTHING. ONLY MAJOR GENERAL DOUNG VAN MINH AND BRIGADIER

GENERAL NGUYEN KHANH RETAIN ANY PRESTIGE; THOSE HOPING FOR A MILITARY-

DICTATED CHANGE OF POLICY AS SOME STOPGAP SALVATION DO NOT TRUST. THE

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4

ARMY LEADERS ANY MORE. THE VOA ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE ARMY WAS NOT

RESPONSIBLE FOR ORDERING THE 21 AUGUST ATTACKS ON THE PAGODAS TEMPORARILY

SAVED THE ARMY'S REPUTATION BUT GENERAL DINH'S IMMEDIATE DENIAL SQUELCHED

THIS. FORTUNATELY FOR NHU, DUONG VAN MINH HOWEVER DISCONTENT STILL

ABIDES BY HIS OFFICER'S OATH OF LOYALTY AND SHUNS POLITICS. HE

DOES SO NOT OUT OF STUPIDITY, AS NHU OFTEN CHARGED IN DENIGRATING HIM.

(FIELD COMMENT. TUYEN RECALLED. BITTERLY HIS OWN PAST SUPPORT OF NHU

IN PUBLICIZING THIS PICTURE OF MINH.) NGUYEN KHANH, THẸ MAN

WHOM TUYEN CONSIDERS NEXT TO HIMSELF AS MOST ABLE TO PLAN A SUCCESSFUL

COUP, IS HAMPERED AS IS TUYEN BY DISTRUST AS A PROVOCATEUR ARISING:

CHIEFLY FROM VIGOROUS SUPPORT BOTH GAVE THE REGIME IN 196D. NHU'S

AGENTS HAVE FURTHERED THIS

IMAGE OF KHANH AND TUYEN AMONG OTHER

SUSPECT MALCONTENTS TO PRESENT ANY COALITION AGAINST THE REGIME.

•5. THE REGIME HAS THE ABILITY TO KEEP THE ARMY IN LINE BY

THREATS OF COMMUNIST ADVANTAGE BY CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE OF SUSPECT

ELEMENTS AND LIMITATION OF THEIR COMMAND AUTHORITY AND BY

RUINING. THE REPUTATION OF HIS ENEMIES AND. OF WELL-MEANING

COMPROMISERS LIKE DON. THERE IS NEVERTHELESS A STRONG CURRENT UNDER

THE SURFACE IN THE ARMED SERVICES; CIVILIAN BUREAUCRACY, POLICE,

AND PROFESSIONAL CLASSES, PEOPLE LESS KNOWN THAN THE TOP FIGURES

SUSPECTED BY THE GVN'S SPIES UNDER LE QUANG TUNG AND DUONG VAN HIEU.

THESE PERSONS HOPE FOR A COUP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AS VIETNAM'S

ONLY SALVATION. NOT ALL OF THEM ARE WILLING TO RISK IT, THOUGH

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THEY WOULD WELCOME IT; THE BIG PROBLEM IS UNITY AND TRUST OF EACH

OTHER IN AN ATMOSPHERE ABOUNDING WITH PROVOCATEURS AND RUMOR MONGERS.

IF, THE STALEMATE CONTINUES ANOTHER SIX MONTHS, THE REGIME WILL LAST

AS LONG AS VIETNAM DOES, BUT THAT WILL NOT BE LONG SINCE NO ONE WILL

HAVE THE WILL TO FIGHT. IF A WELL-PLANNED COUP COMES SOON, IT

MIGHT SUCCEED AND UNDER TREMENDOUS HANDICAPS COULD STILL SAVE VIETNAM."

ITS SURVIVAL POTENTIAL DECREASES AS TIME GOES BY: NHU KNOWS THAT

HIS MAIN STRENGTH IS THE RELUCTANCE OF HIS PATRIOTIC OPPONENTS

AND OF THE AMERICANS TO GIVE THE VC A SUDDEN ADVANTAGE BY PRECIPITIOUS-

ACTION AGAINST THE REGIME WHICH MIGHT. EVOLVE INTO A PROTRACTED

CONFLICT. HE IS SKILFULLY PLAYING AGAINST THAT AND TURNING

ONE ENEMY AGAINST ANOTHER.

6: THIS POLICY MAY FRUSTRATE A COUP. THERE IS A GROWING NUMBER

OF JUNIOR OFFICERS, ESPECIALLY MAJORS AND CAPTAINS, WHO WILL NOT COUNT

•THE COST OF DESPERATE ACTION IF THEIR SUPERIORS DO NOT MOVE.

'EVEN THEY MAY TURN AWAY FROM THE INCREASING HIGH RISKS. OF A COUP :

•: TO THE RELATIVELY SIMPLE DESPERATION MOVE. OF ASSASSINATION. NHU HAS

ALREADY MADE IT CLEAR THROUGH THE SAIGON UNDERGROUND WHERE

PROVOCATEURS AND PLOTTERS MEET THAT THE REGIME IS PREPARED TO RETALIATE

WITH COUNTER ASSASSINATIONS OF NUMEROUS PERSONNEL ALREADY

EARMARKED BY COLONEL TUNG FOR SUCH A DIRE EVENTUALITY, INCLUDING

AMERICANS,.. ON WHOM ANY ASSASSINATION PLOT WILL BE BLAMED. THE

ONLY FURTHER RESULT WOULD BE A HOPELESS THREE-CORNERED CIVIL WAR.

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