Document type: PAPER-TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

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176-10036-10189

Date

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03/01/20

JFK ASSASSINATION SYSTEM

IDENTIFICATION FORM

AGENCY INFORMATION

AGENCY : NARA

RECORD NUMBER.

176-10036-10189

RECORDS SERIES

NATIONAL SECURITY FILES

AGENCY FILE NUMBER

DOCUMENT INFORMATION

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TO

TITLE : POLITICAL DYNAMICS

DATE : 00/00/0000

PAGES

:• 1

SUBJECTS : VIETNAM

DOCUMENT TYPE : PAPER, TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

CLASSIFICATION : UNCLASSIFIED

RESTRICTIONS : OPEN IN FULL

CURRENT STATUS : POSTPONED IN FULL

DATE OF LAST REVIEW : 09/10/2000

OPENING CRITERIA :

COMMENTS : National Security Files, File 11: Vietnam

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SECREE

SUBJECT:

SOURCE d

ColLtical Dynamics

- Seven CAS Officers

There vas general agreement that the analogy was valid that

the Dien goverment is resting on a melting ice floe, with a con-

siderable portion of ts key supporters withdrawing but few indications

of replacements Joiningbla This process of melting, however, is slow

although the potention of collapse at any noment does exist.

Despite

this, both the soldiers and the civil sorvants are apt to continue

their normal pertornance or their duties, so that there is a basic

continuity in vietnam despito tho dirticulties or the goverment.

There 1s latont respect for the leadere ip of Precident Diem and

a still remaining effort in hany ernamese minds co dissinguise

Dien fron the bad implication of the Nbus. One of the critical losses

of personnel by the regime was Tren Kin Tuyen, whose intelligence and

political manipulation ability would have been ant to have resulted

in a better handling of che Buddhist crtsis. Duong Van Hieu, Ngo,

Trong Hieu, and Colonel Tung have assuned various of Tuyen's activities

buc nope cas natch hin in capability

The possibilitles of a replacement regime are as follows:

A A military junte, Probably Including some civilian

Iigures. The primary officers who night conduct such a junta are

General "Big" Minh, assisted by Le Van Kim, General Khanh and General

Chieu:

head, although To send gia naine to he dens by 1a isure.

ELLence

A civilian Prime Minister under a Symbolic Chies o1 State.

Candidates for this might be Tran Trung Dung, Pham Khac Suu. As a.

at the time of his rials

3.

It Dien and Nhu should be eliminated by an accident, it could

be expected that the generals might continue to run the war and leave

the ministration to continue to run by the civil servants.

Phan"

Hul Quat night serve as an effective leader No exiles would be

acceptable, except possibly Nguyen Ton loan might sorve in a cabinet

The nost likely resuld would be some sort or struggle fon leadershit

from which some leaderawould arise.

SECRET

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