CABLE RE: FOLLOWING IS SUBSTANCE CONCLUSIONS DRAFT PAPER ON 'CUBA AND THE CARRIBEAN'
Originator: CIA
From: LONDON
To: DIRECTOR
Document date: 04/19/1961
Document type: PAPER - TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

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2023 RELEASE UNDER THE PRESIDENT JOHN F. KENNEDY ASSASSINATION RECORDS ACT OF 1992

DATE

3,5

• 10 APR 61

• DIRECTOR

FROM

• LO:DON

ACTION, CiE 2

INFO

RIG

CLASSIFIED MESSAGE

SECRET )

POUTING

APR 10 18327.61

D/OCI, DOP, COP, ADOP/A, bE 4, HH 4, D0/1,

•ROUTINE

IN 33544

DIR CITE LOND 6080

KMCARE •

FOLLOWING IS SUBSTANCE CORCLUSIONS DRAFT JIC PAPEP. ON "CUBA

AND THE CARIBBEAN- PASSÉD ORALLY BY SLOAN, JICIBEC, TO GRANAN ON

7 APRIL. SLOAN EXPECIS PAPER WILL BE RELEASED SUI STILL UN ONLY

AT THIS STAGE. PLEASE HANDLE DISCREETLY..

•AO BY NOU, ALHOST IMPOSSIBLE DISTINGUISH CASTROIST FRO

COMMUNISMI CUBA AN "UNCERICIAL" MEMBER OF BLOG. (BLOAN SAID THIS

CONCLUSION MIGHT BE TONED DOMI, BUT IT REPRESENTED ECHOTE VORTING

LEVEL DRAFT.)

•Ba CASTRO PROBABLY. NOT A COMMIE, BUT COP HAS SHOUN BREAT. .

SKILL IN BAINING DOMINANT POSITION SINCE RESOLUTICH.

CASTRO REGIHE IM-FIRA CONTROL, DESPITE DISASFECTION

1-0/44/4

Cops

MUCH OF MIDDLE CLASS...

SECRET

DEDADDIITION SY

OTHER

THAN THE BSUNG OME I PROME BRO, Coor Na

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LOND 6030 IN 33544

D. "VESTEAN" ECONOMIC MEASURES NOT LIKELY HAVE DECISIVE

EFFECT IN WEAKEVING HOLD OF REGIME.

L. BLOC ATTACHES GREAT IMPORTANCE MAINTENANCE CASTRO REGIME

IN POVER: LIKELY PROVIDE ALL ESSENTIAL ECONOMIC, TECHNICAL SUPPORT.

F. CUBAN ACTIVITIES IN CARIBBEAN NOW LESS BLATANT AND

PROVOCATIVE: CUBA NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN

BRITISH GUIANA HERE JAGAN MIGHT CONCERT WITH CASTRO AFTER-INDEPEND-

ENCE.

IN LONGER RUN, IF CASTRO SUCCEEDS IN SATISFYING SOME OF

SASIC ASPIRATIONS CUBAN LOVER CLASSES, CUBA COULD MAVE SUBSTANTIAL

DEFECT. ON DEVELOPHENTS IN THE AREA.

END OF MESSAGE

_SECRET

LIPRQDUCTION BY OTHER INAN PHE MAHA: METVR l8 DOMULATE

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