CABLE RE COMMENTARY CONCERNING THE PROBABLY REACTION OF FIDEL CASTRO AND HIS PRINCIPAL ASSOCIATES TO THE SOVIET WITHDRAWAL OF OFFENSIVE MISSILES FROM CUBA AND TO U.S. DEMANDS RE THE WITHDRAWAL OF SOIVET IL-28 AIRCRAFT AND ON-SPOT INSPECTION.
Agency: CIA
Originator: CIA
Document date: 11/19/1962
Document type: PAPER-TEXTUAL DOCUMENT

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NUIRISH DEIVING UI LUC

LInCA tee states of America

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INDEVOUT 3J SHE GINVAJ 4459

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REPORT CLASS SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM NO

, DISSEM ABROAD

(INSERT REPORT SYMBOL AND NUMBER) COUNTRY: USSR, CUBA

SUBJS CONMENTARY CONCERNING THE PROBABLE REACTION OF EEDET

CASTRO AND HIS PRINCIPAL ASSOCIATES TO THE SOVIBI, NITHDRAWAL

DE, OFEENSIVE MISSILES FROM CUBA AND TO U,Se DEMANDS RE 741E

_ WITHDRAWAL OF SOVIET IL-28 AIRCRAFT AND. ON-SPOT INSPECTION.

DOI: 14 NOVEMBER 1962

PADA: MEXICO CITY, 14 NOVEMBER 1962 APPR: 6

BOURCES FORMER CUBAN OFFICIAL (C)

1. (FIELD CONMENT: THE AUTHOR OF THIS COMMENTARY OCCUPIED

A RESPONSIBLE POSITION IN HAVARA DURING THY FIRST YEAR AFTER

THE CASTRO REVOLUTION. HE APPROVED OF TILE APPARENT AIMS OF

THE REVOLUTION AT THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT AN INTIMATE OF

FIDEL CASTRO HE WAS ACQUAINTED WITH THE LATTER. HE KNEW

A WIDE CIRCLE OF CASTRO ASSOCIATES ON AN INTIMATE BASIS AND

WORKED CLOSELY WITH THEM IN THE CASTRO GOVERNMENT. THE

AUTHOR IS A VERY INTELLICENT AND WELL EDUCATED MAN, WHO

POSSESSES AN EXHAUSTIVE KNOWLEDGE OF THE CUBAN SCENE IN

THE PAST THREE DECADES. SINCE ARRIVING IN MEXICO HE HAS

MAINTAINED CLOSE CONTACI, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, WITH A.

VARIETY OF CUBAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND ON THE BASIS OF

Classifignort

REPRODUCTION FROM THIS COPY IS

PROHIBITED UNLESS "UNCLASSIFIED".

Peare yet ot elet he dare one eat un, and to the rife on lie or Be *

686.178

o in Fidel Cast

ERS

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FORMER ASSOCIATION AND FRIINDSHIP HAS DISCUSSEDNITH THEM

MAITY FACETS OF CURRENT CUBAN POLITICAL LIFE. HOWEVER,

THE AUTHOR HAS NOT HAD ANX CONTACTS WITH SUCH PERSONS

SINCE TIE ONSET OF THY CURRENT CRISIS.)

2.. IT IS DOUBIFUL THAT FIEDI CASTRO WILL ACCEDE TO

SOVIET NISSES RE SETTLENENY OF THE CURRENT CUBAN SITUATION.

DESPITS THIS PRESSURE REPORTEDLY BLING EXERCISED ON HIM BY

SOVIET DEPUTY PREMIER ANASTAS MIKOYAN. CASTRO'S VANITY

IS IMMENSE AND NO MATTER BON IT HAS BEEN, EXPLAINED TO

HIM BY MIKOYAN OR OTHER SOVIET OFFICIALS, HE MUST BE

FURIOUS AT THS FACT THAT THE SOVIST UNION HAS "BACKED DOWN"

BEFORE THE U.S. AND IS NOW NEGOTIATING WITH THE U.S. ON

AN INDEPENDENT BASIS.

CASTRO MUST CONSIDER HIMSELF AS

BEING IN-A-DESPERATE SITUAXION. HE CAN NOT TURN HIS

ANGER OPENLY ON THE SOVIET UNION BECAUSE. IT WAS HE AND

HIS BROTHER RAUL WHO WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOVING CUBA SO

DEEPLY INTO THE "SOCIALIST CAMP" DESPITE AT LEAST THE

INITIAL RESISTANCE BY SEVERAL OF HIS PRINCIPAL FOLLONERS,

FOR EXAMPLE, PRESIDENT OSVALD DORTICOS AND FOREICN MINISTER

RAUL ROA, THUS TO ATTACK THE USSR PUELICLY WOULD BE TO

ADMIT THAT HE HAD MADE A MAJOR ERROR WITH RESPECT TO THE

CONDUCT OF RELATIONS VITH THE SOVIET UNION. REALIZATION

BY CASTRO THAT SUCH IS THE SITUATION NUST CONSIDERABEY

INCREASE HIS SENSE OF FRUSTRATION AND HIS FEELING OF

DESPERATION.

3. PIDEL CASTRO IS DOMINATED EX VANITY. HE HAS

MECALOMANIACAL TENDENCIES, AND NE POSSESSES A COMPULSON

FOR REVENGE WHICH IS NOTORIOUS; ON OCCASION THE LATTER

Classification

REPRODUCTION FROM THIS COPY IS

PROHIBITED UNLESS "UNCLASSIFIED",

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COMPULSION HAS CAUSED HIM TO REACH BACK AS FAR AS TWENTY

YEARS TO REVENGE ACTIONS TAKEN AGAINST HIM AT THAT TIME.

CASTRO'S CHARACTER IS SUCH THAT RATHER THAN ACCEPTING

A LOSS IN PRESTIGE AND SIATUS HE WOULD BE WILLING TO

DESTROY HIMSELE AND THIS CUBAN PEOPLE. IN THE CURRENT

SITUATION UNLESS HE CAN SEE SOME WAY TO ACHIEVE A SOLUTION

OF THE VARIOUS PROBLEMS, INCLUDING THE U.S. BLOCKADE,

AERIAL SURVEIELANCE AND THE DEMANDS FOR THE WITHDRAWAL

OF THE IL-28 BOMBERS AND FOR ON-SPOT INSPECTION IN CUBA.

CASTRO IS FULLY CAPABLE OF UNDERTAKING AN ACT OE DES-

PERATION. FOR EXAMPLE THE AERIAL BOMBARDMENT OF THE

U.S. OR SOME GROSS ACT AGAINST THIS SOVIET AMBASSADOR

IN CUBA,

4. THE MOOD AMONG LEADING EIDELISTAS MUST BE ONE

OF SORROW, AND BITTERNESS AND RAGE AGAINST THE SOVIET

UNION, WEICH THEY WILL REGARD AS BAVING SOLD OUT DUBA.

THE SOVIET TREATMENT OF CUBA AS A PAWN IN THE INTER-

NATIONAL GAME WILL BE PARTICULAFLY CALLING TO THE CUBAN

NATURE. RAUL CASTRO IS LIKELY TO FEEL PERSONAL INJURY.

IF. AS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE, IT IS AS A RESULT OF HIS

TRIP TO MOSCON THAT SOME OF THE MISSILES WERE SENT TO

CUBA. KHILE HIS REACIION IS LIKELY TO BE LESS ERRATIC

THAN THAT OF FIDEL, RAUL IS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF

ADOPTING AN EXTREMELY HARD LINE AGAINST THE SOVIETS.

HIS REACTION WHEN IS FELT THAT THERE HAD BEEN BETRAYAL,

EVEN BY COMVUNISTS TO WHOM FLE WAS FORMERLY CLOSE, WAS

SHOWN IN HIS ATTITUDE TOWARDS ANIBAL ESCALANTE, WHOM HE

WISHED TO EXECUTE AFTER THE LATTER'S ANTI-FIDELISTA

ad inClassification"

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PROHIBITED UNLESS "UNCLASSIFIED".

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ACTIVITY BECAME KNONN.

5. AMONG OTHER INFLUENTIAL FIDELAISTAS, OSVALDO

DORTICOS IS LIKELY TO BE PARTICULARLY INCENSED AT THE

SOVIET ACTION. DESPITE FREQUENT PRESS REPORTS THAT HE

IS A LONG TIMS COLMINIST, IT IS A FACT THAT DORTICOS

OPOSED TIL EOIBLISHINL O RAANOES PITH THE USSR

AT THE TIME OF MIKOYAN'S FIRST TRIP TO CUBA. HE DID

THIS APPARENTLY BECAUSE ELE REGARDED IT AS A STEP WHICH

WOULD UNNECESSARILY HARDEN U.S. ATTITUDE TOWARDE CUES.

IN ADDITION, HIS IS KNOWN TO HAVE OPPOSED MIASURES UNDER-

TAKEN BY RAMIRO VALDEZ, AND THE G-2. AND BY ANIBAL

ESCALANTE AND HIS HENCHMEN. THUS EB IS LIKELY TO BE

PARTICULARLY ANGERED AND BETTER THAT THE POLICICS WHICH

HE UNSUCCESSFULLY OPPOSED WERE IMPLTMENTED AND HAVE IDD

TO SUCH DISASTROUS RESULTS.

6. RECARDISSS OF WEKTHER OR NOT LADING FIDELISTAS

DIFFER FROM CASTRO RE THE ACTION CUBA SHOULD NOW TARE.

IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WILL ATTENPT BY FORCE TO CAUSE

HIM TO TAKE A CONTRARY COURSE OF ACTION, OR TO TRY TO

STRIP HIM OF POWER, THEY ARE TOO THOROUGHLY ANARE OF

HIS RUTHILESSNESS AND VINDICTIVENESS TO RISK SUCH ACTION

EXCEPT IN EXTRIME CIRCUMSTARCES. IF, HOWSVER, ES EMBARKS

ON AN ACT OF UTTER FOLLY WHICH IN THEIR VIEW INVITES

THE DESTRUCTION OF CUBA, THEY MIGHT ACT AGAINST HIN.

7. THERE HAVE BEEN PRESS REPORTS OF A PROPOSED

DEMILITARIZATION OF THE CARIBBEAN ARZA. THIS SEEMS TO

BE ONE FORMULA WILICH CONCEIVABLY MICAT GIVE FIDEL CASTRO

A WAY OUT OF THE IMPASSE WHICH CONFRONTS HIM, SINCE HE

MICHT FEEL ILAT HE COULD PERMIT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

REPRODUCTION FROM THIS COPY IS

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PROHIBITED UNLESS "UNCLASSIFIED".

"Singerie yes gy pout are me are omit he era number, at po che lenvelicate mat mess DE) without

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D.S. DEMANDS AND STILI SAVE FACE, FOR EXAMPLE. BY SAYING

THAT HE HAS NOTHING AGAINST CUBA BEING THE FIRST OBJECT

OF IMPLEMENTATION OF A GENERAL'AGRREMENT SINCI TOMORROW

IT WILL BS THE TURN OF THE PANAMA CANAL ZONE. CASTRO

MIGHT ACCEPT SOME SUCH A GENERAL ARRANGENENT AS A MEANS

OF SAVING FACE EVEN THOUGH HE KNEW THAT THERE WOULD NOX

BE IN FACT AN APPLICATION OF THE SAME MEASURES FE THE

CANAL ZONE AS RE CUBA.

B.

FIELD DISSEM: AMB ONLY.

END OF MSG

ORIG: MIDDAUGH

RELEASEDS DIMARD

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