Hall School Building Committee — Portland, ME
Date: 2015-04-01

1. Hall School Building Committee Meeting 4/1/2015 Agenda

 Documents: HALLBC_AGENDA040115.PDF
2. March 4, 2015 Meeting Minutes

 Documents: MEETING MINUTES 03042015.PDF
3. Student Population Projections Draft Report

 Documents: 2014 DRAFT REPORT 03172015.PDF
4. Portland Public Schools Enrollment By School 1999 - 2014

 Documents: PPS OCT 1 ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 1999-2014.PDF

1. Hall School Building Committee Meeting 4/1/2015 Agenda

 Documents: HALLBC_AGENDA040115.PDF
2. March 4, 2015 Meeting Minutes

 Documents: MEETING MINUTES 03042015.PDF
3. Student Population Projections Draft Report

 Documents: 2014 DRAFT REPORT 03172015.PDF
4. Portland Public Schools Enrollment By School 1999 - 2014

 Documents: PPS OCT 1 ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 1999-2014.PDF
 HALL SCHOOL BUILDING COMMITTEE


Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Time: 6:00pm

Location: Hall School Library



 AGENDA



 1. Approve minutes from March 4, 2015 meeting

 2. Review updated demographic information presented to Portland Board of
 Public Education on March 17, 2015

 3. Update on the timeline

 4. Overview of Buildings for Our Future concept plans
Oak Point Project #21402.18




Building Committee MEETING MINUTES - No. 002
Meeting: Hall School Building Committee Date: March 4, 2015 Time: 6:00 PM

Location: Hall School Library, Portland, ME
Project: Hall Elementary School


Notes and observations were made by Allison Towne DiMatteo

The following is a summary of the issues discussed in the order presented:

Meeting Agenda: Copy of agenda attached

  Action/Date Item Item
  Responsible Party No.

  Attendees List of Attendees at end of Minutes

  Meeting Minutes The meeting minutes from January 7, 2015 were
 brought forward.
 • Motion to approve the meeting minutes from
 January 7, 2015. Seconded. (Approved
 unanimously.)

  New Business
  (ARL@portlandmaine.gov) 1. Any building committee member who wishes not to
 have his/her telephone number or e-mail published
 should alert Anita LaChance.
 2. Rob Tillotson (Oak Point Associates) gave a brief
 recap of the Public Forum held on February 4, 2015.
 3. Allison DiMatteo and Tyler Barter (Oak Point
 Associates) gave an overview of the draft enrollment
 projections developed by Davis Demographics &
 Planning (DDP).
  PPS will provide data on 4. Discussion of the draft enrollment projections
  immigrant population to generated the following questions/requests:
  Oak Point Associates. • The DDP projections should be compared

 Meeting Minutes
 Page 1 of 3
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 231 Main Street, Biddeford, Maine 04005 TEL 207.283.0193 FAX 207.283.4283 www.oakpoint.com
  Action/Date Item Item
  Responsible Party No.
 against past enrollment projections to see how
 well they align.
 • How does the apparent increase in the
 immigrant population factor into the enrollment
 projections?
 • Because of the PPS policy on out of
 neighborhood placement in elementary
 schools, the transfer matrix is important to
 consider.
 • What is the effect of PPS’ shift of Libbytown
 neighborhood students to Hall School?
 • Oak Point should obtain a proposal from
 Planning Decisions for enrollment projections
 (a second opinion).
 • The assumptions on future residential
 development should be checked.
  Portland Board of 5. Overview by Rob Tillotson of the State of Maine
  Education (School Board) Department of Education’s 21-step review and
  to review the regional data approval process chart for Major Capital School
  and advise on a direction Construction, and the overall need to evaluate
  for the project. (M/S/A) regional solutions within the district as part of the
 process. Discussion:
  Oak Point to attend • Hall School Building Committee is not the
  School Board meeting to group to take up the question of a regional
  provide background on solution.
  enrollment projections and • Possibility of a combined solution with
  state process. Longfellow School
 6. The Hall School Building Committee should continue
 to move ahead to the degree possible while the
 regional discussion is being conducted by the Board
 of Education.
 7. Motion for meeting to adjourn. (M/S/A)




 END OF MEETING MINUTES


The above items are true to the best of the writer’s knowledge. If there are any errors or omissions,
please notify Allison Towne DiMatteo of Oak Point Associates, at the next scheduled meeting. If no
corrections or additions are noted at that time, these minutes will become a permanent record of the
preceding. If corrections or additions are made, these changes will be noted in the minutes of the next
scheduled meeting.


 Meeting Minutes
 Page 2 of 3
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 231 Main Street, Biddeford, Maine 04005 TEL 207.283.0193 FAX 207.283.4283 www.oakpoint.com
Meeting Attendees:

Name Representing

Mark B. Adelson Building Committee, Portland Housing Authority
James Banks Sr. Building Committee
Emmanuel Caulk Superintendent, Portland Public Schools

Joe Carter Building Committee
Laurie J. Davis, Vice Chair Building Committee, School Board Member
Bob Doherty Building Committee
Dick Farnsworth Building Committee
Sean Kelsey Building Committee
Anita Lachance City of Portland
Katie Lamb Building Committee
Whitney Letellier Building Committee

Nick Mavodones Building Committee, City Councilor
Marnie Morrione Building Committee, School Board Member
Laura Newman Building Committee
Pedro Nieves Building Committee
Cynthia Remick Hall School Principal
Karen A. Seymour City of Portland
Douglas Ritter Sherwood Portland Public Schools
Ed Suslovic, Chair Building Committee, City Councilor
Sarah Thompson Building Committee, School Board Member
Craig Worth Portland Public Schools

Tyler Barter Oak Point Associates
Allison Towne DiMatteo Oak Point Associates
Rob Tillotson Oak Point Associates




 Meeting Minutes
 Page 3 of 3
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 231 Main Street, Biddeford, Maine 04005 TEL 207.283.0193 FAX 207.283.4283 www.oakpoint.com
 Portland
 Public Schools
 Portland, Maine




Student Population Projections
By Residence



 Draft
 Fall 2014/2015 Report
 Fall 2015/16 – Fall 2021/22
 Projected Student Population by Residence




 Prepared by




 March 17, 2015
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report




 Overall Methodology
After all the data is assembled and the factors are calculated, the number of students
by residence is a forecast based on the chosen date of projection, in this case
Decenber 23, 2014 was utilized. Student population within each study area is then
calculated in the following order:

1. First, the natural progression of students moving through the grades.

2. After the raw, straight-through projections are applied, BIRTH
 FACTORS are then multiplied to the current kindergarten class to
 generate a base for the following year’s kindergarten class.
2. Next, STUDENT YIELD FACTORS are multiplied by the PROJECTION HOUSING
 UNITS. At the time of this report, there are no residential development projects
 proposed or under construction.

3. The MOBILITY FACTORS are applied which take into account the natural in/out
 migration of students throughout the DISTRICT. (Factors are calculated for each
 grade to better account for fluctuations in enrollment such as the possible
 increase in students between 8th and 9th grades.)




March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 1
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


 Projections by Residence
Incoming Kindergarten

 The Maine State Department of Health reports live birth data by the resident
city of the mother. DDP uses the birth data city correlating to the District boundary
and applies the data accordingly.




 Chart 1– Birth and K Class

Student Mobility Factors
 Student mobility factors further refine the seven-year student population
projections. Mobility refers to the increase/decrease in the migration of students
within the District boundary (move-in/move-out of students from existing housing).
Mobility, similar to a cohort, applied as a percentage of increase/decrease to each
grade for every year of the projections.

 A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor
of 1.000 A net student loss is represented by a factor less than 1.000 and a net gain
by a factor greater than 1.000 (see example).

 Example:
 100 Kindergarten students in fall 2014/15
 X .980 (East End 1st grade mobility)
 = 98.0 1st grade students residing in East End in 2015/16



March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 2
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report



 Having historical student data categorized by Study Area is extremely helpful
in calculating accurate Student Mobility Factors. DDP was able to utilize the last four
(4) years (Fall 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, and 2014/15) student data. The 2011/12
student data was compared to 2012/13, 2012/13 to 2013/14, and 2013/14 to this
year’s student data at the Study area level. Grades K-12 Mobility was all calculated to
correspond with the Elementary School Attendance Areas.




 Table 1– Mobility Factors by Residence



Residential Development

 Planned residential development data is collected to determine the number
of new residential units that will be built over the ten-year time frame of the student
population projections. The projected units within the next ten years will have the
appropriate Student Yield Factor, Table 3, applied to them to determine the number
of new students planned residential development will yield.

 A database map of the planned residential development was created,
including, when available, project name, location, housing type, total number of
units and estimated move-in dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based
upon occupancy of the unit and is used to help time the arrival of students from
these new developments.

 In the student population projection by residence DDP includes all approved
and tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that
possibly will occur within the projection timeframe. The planned residential
development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the
time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated
annually (see Table 2).




March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 3
 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


 Residential Development in Portland
Study Area Project Developer Location Total Units Status Comments
 256 409 Cumberland Avesta Housing 409 Cumberland Ave 57 Active 01/15/2015 completion 1/2015
 243 Bayside Anchor Avesta Housing Oxford and Mayo 45 Active 01/15/15 complete 1 1/2 yrs 6/2016
 21 Maritime Landing The Federated Equities Chestnut St and Somerset St. 500 Planning Still in planning phase

 Table 2– Residential Development
 Note: The development list includes projects that occupancy will begin in the 7-year period of the enrollment projections. Some future
 projects may not be included if they do not fall in this period. Total Units reflect the number of approved units for the project not the
 remaining units to be built.




 Student Yield Factors – 7-Year Projections

 Closely related to the planned residential development units are Student
 Yield Factors. The Student Yield Factors, when applied to planned residential
 development units, determine how many additional students will be generated from
 new construction within the District.




 Table 3 – Student Yield Factors

 *Note: Student Yield Factors supplied by District staff..




 March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 4
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


 DISTRICT-WIDE SUMMARY
 Projection Date 1/23/2015
 Actual Projected Resident Students
 Fall 2014/15 Fall 2015/16 Fall 2016/17 Fall 2017/18 Fall 2018/19 Fall 2019/20 Fall 2020/21 Fall 2021/22
 PK 102 104.7 94.2 99.0 95.5 98.3 98.3 98.3
 K 549 563.6 506.8 532.8 514.2 529.0 529.0 529.0
 1 562 550.4 564.8 507.3 533.3 514.6 529.5 529.5
 2 552 550.0 536.5 549.9 493.9 519.2 501.0 515.5
 3 495 544.4 542.8 528.8 542.0 486.7 511.8 493.8
 4 537 484.6 532.6 531.6 516.8 529.6 475.6 500.1
 5 510 525.2 473.6 519.5 519.1 504.8 517.3 464.6
 6 492 496.8 511.9 460.8 504.4 505.3 489.8 502.0
 7 482 495.7 501.2 515.4 465.2 509.7 509.1 494.9
 8 490 481.6 495.3 499.3 512.9 464.0 506.7 506.9
 9 516 493.0 485.2 498.3 502.0 515.5 467.9 512.2
 10 498 539.8 515.4 507.5 520.3 525.0 538.8 487.9
 11 535 507.1 549.8 523.6 515.3 528.2 532.7 548.2
 12 557 555.5 527.3 572.9 542.7 534.1 548.3 553.8

 K-5 3,205 3,218.2 3,157.1 3,169.9 3,119.3 3,083.9 3,064.2 3,032.5
 6-8 1,464 1,474.1 1,508.4 1,475.5 1,482.5 1,479.0 1,505.6 1,503.8
 9-12 2,106 2,095.4 2,077.7 2,102.3 2,080.3 2,102.8 2,087.7 2,102.1
 K-12 6,775 6,787.7 6,743.2 6,747.7 6,682.1 6,665.7 6,657.5 6,638.4
 Out of District Students
 K-5 24 24.1 23.6 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.7
 6-8 22 22.2 22.7 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.6 22.6
 9-12 56 55.7 55.2 55.9 55.3 55.9 55.5 55.9
 K-12 102 102.0 101.6 101.8 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.2
 UnmatchedsStudents
 K-5 6 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7
 6-8 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
 9-12 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
 K-12 8 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7
 District Total Enrollment
 K-5 3,235 3,248.3 3,186.7 3,199.6 3,148.5 3,112.8 3,092.9 3,060.9
 6-8 1,487 1,497.3 1,532.1 1,498.7 1,505.8 1,502.2 1,529.3 1,527.4
 9-12 2,163 2,152.1 2,133.9 2,159.2 2,136.6 2,159.7 2,144.2 2,159.0
 PK-12 6,987 7,002 6,947 6,956 6,886 6,873 6,865 6,846
 Change in Enrollment
 K-5 13.3 -61.7 12.9 -51.1 -35.7 -19.9 -51.9
 6-8 10.3 34.8 -33.4 7.1 -3.6 27.0 25.2
 9-12 -10.9 -18.2 25.3 -22.6 23.1 -15.5 -0.7
 PK-12 15.4 -55.6 9.6 -70.0 -13.4 -8.4 -27.4




March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 4
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report




March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 5
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


Individual School Projections by Residence

Attendance Area East End Community School Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 66.0 67.7 61.5 64.3 62.1 63.9 63.9 63.9
 1 63.0 64.7 67.0 60.3 63.0 60.8 62.6 62.6
 2 68.0 59.9 62.1 63.6 57.2 59.9 57.8 59.5
 3 56.0 61.9 55.1 56.5 57.9 52.1 54.5 52.6
 4 57.0 55.4 61.9 54.5 56.0 57.3 51.6 54.0
 5 65.0 51.9 51.1 56.4 49.6 50.9 52.2 46.9

 K‐5 375.0 361.5 358.7 355.6 345.8 344.9 342.6 339.5



Attendance Area Hall ES Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 59.0 60.5 54.3 57.2 55.2 56.8 56.8 56.8
 1 76.0 58.4 59.9 53.8 56.6 54.6 56.2 56.2
 2 52.0 73.0 56.1 57.5 51.6 54.3 52.4 53.9
 3 67.0 51.5 72.2 55.5 56.9 51.1 53.8 51.9
 4 62.0 65.0 49.9 70.1 53.8 55.2 49.6 52.2
 5 65.0 60.1 63.0 48.4 68.0 52.2 53.5 48.1

 K‐5 381.0 368.5 355.4 342.5 342.1 324.2 322.3 319.1


Attendance Area Longfellow ES Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 53.0 54.3 48.8 51.4 49.6 51.0 51.0 51.0
 1 47.0 55.6 57.0 51.3 53.9 52.0 53.5 53.5
 2 61.0 43.7 51.8 53.0 47.7 50.2 48.4 49.8
 3 38.0 56.1 40.2 47.6 48.8 43.9 46.1 44.5
 4 53.0 36.1 53.3 38.2 45.2 46.4 41.7 43.8
 5 47.0 48.8 33.2 49.0 35.1 41.6 42.7 38.3

 K‐5 299.0 294.6 284.3 290.5 280.3 285.1 283.4 280.9



Attendance Area Lyseth ES Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 70.0 71.8 64.5 67.8 65.5 67.3 67.3 67.3
 1 97.0 72.8 74.6 67.0 70.5 68.1 70.0 70.0
 2 77.0 98.0 73.5 75.4 67.7 71.2 68.7 70.7
 3 66.0 77.0 98.0 73.5 75.4 67.7 71.2 68.7
 4 79.0 66.7 77.8 98.9 74.3 76.1 68.4 72.0
 5 82.0 77.4 65.3 76.2 97.0 72.8 74.6 67.0

 K‐5 471.0 463.7 453.7 458.8 450.4 423.2 420.2 415.7

Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries



March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 6
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


Individual School Projections by Residence

Attendance Area Ocean Ave ES Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 89.0 92.1 82.4 86.7 83.7 86.1 86.1 86.1
 1 81.0 94.4 96.7 86.6 91.1 87.9 90.4 90.4
 2 95.0 79.4 91.5 93.8 84.0 88.3 85.2 87.7
 3 83.0 99.7 82.6 95.2 97.6 87.3 91.9 88.6
 4 76.0 84.7 100.7 83.4 96.2 98.5 88.2 92.8
 5 78.0 76.1 83.9 99.7 82.6 95.2 97.6 87.3

 K‐5 502.0 526.4 537.8 545.4 535.2 543.3 539.4 532.9



Attendance Area Peaks Island School Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7
 1 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7
 2 12.0 2.9 7.8 8.0 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.5
 3 11.0 12.4 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.7 7.5
 4 13.0 9.7 10.9 2.6 7.0 7.2 6.5 6.8
 5 8.0 13.5 10.1 11.3 2.7 7.3 7.5 6.7

 K‐5 55.0 54.7 47.4 45.1 40.3 44.6 44.4 43.9


Attendance Area Presumpscot ES Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 57.0 58.4 52.5 55.2 53.3 54.8 54.8 54.8
 1 47.0 54.7 56.1 50.4 53.0 51.2 52.6 52.6
 2 43.0 46.1 53.6 55.0 49.4 52.0 50.1 51.6
 3 38.0 42.1 45.1 52.6 53.9 48.4 50.9 49.1
 4 61.0 36.1 40.0 42.9 49.9 51.2 46.0 48.4
 5 55.0 61.6 36.5 40.4 43.3 50.4 51.7 46.4

 K‐5 301.0 299.0 283.8 296.5 302.8 308.0 306.1 302.9



 Attendance Area Reiche Community School Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 76.0 77.9 70.0 73.6 71.1 73.1 73.1 73.1
 1 70.0 72.2 74.0 66.5 70.0 67.5 69.5 69.5
 2 67.0 63.7 65.7 67.3 60.5 63.7 61.4 63.2
 3 50.0 69.0 65.6 67.7 69.4 62.3 65.6 63.3
 4 57.0 47.5 65.6 62.3 64.3 65.9 59.2 62.3
 5 46.0 57.6 48.0 66.2 63.0 64.9 66.6 59.8

 K‐5 366.0 387.9 388.9 403.6 398.3 397.4 395.4 391.2

Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries



March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 7
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


Individual School Projections by Residence

 Attendance Area Riverton ES Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 71.0 72.8 65.4 68.8 66.4 68.3 68.3 68.3
 1 78.0 69.6 71.3 64.1 67.4 65.1 66.9 66.9
 2 77.0 83.5 74.5 76.3 68.6 72.1 69.6 71.6
 3 86.0 74.7 81.0 72.2 74.0 66.5 70.0 67.5
 4 79.0 83.4 72.4 78.5 70.1 71.8 64.5 67.9
 5 64.0 78.2 82.6 71.7 77.7 69.4 71.1 63.9

 K‐5 455.0 462.2 447.2 431.6 424.2 413.2 410.4 406.1

Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries




March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 8
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


Individual School Projections by Residence

Attendance Area King MS Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 191.0 196.7 177.1 185.9 179.4 184.6 184.6 184.6
 1 180.0 190.6 196.0 175.9 184.6 178.2 183.3 183.3
 2 177.0 170.4 180.4 184.8 165.8 174.1 168.0 172.8
 3 154.0 179.2 172.2 181.9 186.4 167.2 175.6 169.5
 4 149.0 152.0 176.7 168.7 178.6 183.0 164.1 172.4
 5 157.0 147.2 149.4 173.3 165.6 175.4 179.8 161.2
 6 123.0 149.6 140.2 142.0 164.1 157.2 166.3 170.4
 7 142.0 126.3 154.0 142.8 144.5 167.9 159.8 170.0
 8 134.0 142.1 125.9 152.4 140.7 143.2 165.4 157.8

 K‐5 1,008.0 1,036.1 1,051.8 1,070.5 1,060.4 1,062.5 1,055.4 1,043.8
 6‐8 399.0 418.0 420.1 437.2 449.3 468.3 491.5 498.2


Attendance Area Lincoln MS Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 157.0 160.9 144.6 152.1 146.8 151.0 151.0 151.0
 1 174.0 158.0 162.0 145.5 153.1 147.7 152.0 152.0
 2 176.0 173.1 156.4 160.3 144.0 151.5 146.2 150.4
 3 157.0 168.6 166.9 150.0 153.7 138.1 145.3 140.2
 4 172.0 151.5 162.4 161.1 144.5 148.1 133.1 140.0
 5 159.0 165.5 146.6 156.2 155.7 139.1 142.6 128.1
 6 171.0 155.4 161.9 143.7 152.7 152.5 136.0 139.4
 7 149.0 167.9 153.0 159.7 142.1 150.6 150.7 134.2
 8 152.0 151.4 170.8 155.7 162.4 144.7 153.1 153.5

 K‐5 995.0 977.6 938.9 925.2 897.8 875.5 870.2 861.7
 6‐8 472.0 474.7 485.7 459.1 457.2 447.8 439.8 427.1



Attendance Area Moore MS Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 193.0 197.8 177.8 187.0 180.5 185.7 185.7 185.7
 1 205.0 193.8 198.7 178.5 187.8 181.2 186.4 186.4
 2 187.0 203.6 192.0 196.8 176.9 186.1 179.5 184.7
 3 173.0 184.2 200.8 188.9 193.6 174.0 183.1 176.6
 4 203.0 171.3 182.6 199.1 186.6 191.3 171.9 180.8
 5 186.0 199.0 167.6 178.6 195.0 182.9 187.5 168.5
 6 190.0 183.1 195.4 164.4 175.5 192.7 179.6 184.1
 7 178.0 193.2 185.4 198.0 167.5 178.7 195.6 182.6
 8 196.0 175.9 191.0 182.9 195.8 165.8 176.6 192.8

 K‐5 1,147.0 1,149.7 1,119.5 1,128.9 1,120.4 1,101.2 1,094.1 1,082.7
 6‐8 564.0 552.2 571.8 545.3 538.8 537.2 551.8 559.5

Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries



March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 9
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


Individual School Projections by Residence

Attendance Area Peaks Island School Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7  7.7 7.7
 1 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5  7.7 7.7
 2 12.0 2.9 7.8 8.0 7.1 7.5  7.3 7.5
 3 11.0 12.4 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4  7.7 7.5
 4 13.0 9.7 10.9 2.6 7.0 7.2  6.5 6.8
 5 8.0 13.5 10.1 11.3 2.7 7.3  7.5 6.7
 6 8.0 8.6 14.5 10.8 12.1 2.9  7.8 8.0
 7 13.0 8.2 8.8 14.9 11.1 12.5  3.0 8.1
 8 8.0 12.1 7.7 8.2 13.9 10.3 11.6 2.8

 K‐5 55.0 54.7 47.4 45.1 40.3 44.6 44.4 43.9
 6‐8 29.0 28.9 31.0 33.9 37.1 25.7 22.4 18.9

Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries




March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 10
Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


Individual School Projections by Residence

Attendance Area Deering HS Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 237.0 242.9 218.3 229.7 221.6 228.0 228.0 228.0
 1 267.0 240.4 246.4 221.4 233.0 224.8 231.3 231.3
 2 263.0 265.2 238.1 244.1 219.3 230.8 222.7 229.1
 3 242.0 257.1 259.8 232.5 238.3 214.1 225.3 217.4
 4 254.0 236.4 251.6 254.2 227.1 232.8 209.2 220.1
 5 247.0 246.2 230.0 243.9 247.1 220.2 225.7 202.8
 6 242.0 241.8 240.8 225.1 238.7 242.8 215.9 221.3
 7 227.0 241.9 242.9 242.0 226.5 240.7 243.6 216.8
 8 235.0 229.6 244.9 245.2 244.5 229.4 242.5 245.9
 9 264.0 236.0 231.5 246.0 245.4 245.7 230.3 243.3
 10 259.0 272.5 243.7 240.0 254.2 254.0 254.9 237.9
 11 250.0 264.0 278.4 248.1 244.4 258.5 258.8 259.6
 12 263.0 255.7 272.0 288.4 255.1 251.3 265.3 266.8

 K‐5 1,510.0 1,488.2 1,444.2 1,425.8 1,386.4 1,350.7 1,342.2 1,328.7
 6‐8 704.0 713.3 728.6 712.3 709.7 712.9 702.0 684.0
 9‐12 1,036.0 1,028.2 1,025.6 1,022.5 999.1 1,009.5 1,009.3 1,007.6




Attendance Area Portland HS Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 304.0 312.5 281.2 295.4 285.1 293.3 293.3 293.3
 1 292.0 302.0 310.2 278.5 292.6 282.4 290.5 290.5
 2 277.0 281.9 290.6 297.8 267.4 280.9 271.1 278.9
 3 242.0 274.9 280.0 288.3 295.5 265.2 278.7 269.0
 4 270.0 238.5 270.2 274.7 282.6 289.6 260.0 273.2
 5 255.0 265.5 233.6 264.3 269.2 277.2 284.1 255.0
 6 242.0 246.4 256.6 224.9 253.6 259.6 266.1 272.7
 7 242.0 245.5 249.5 258.4 227.6 256.5 262.5 270.0
 8 247.0 239.9 242.7 245.9 254.5 224.4 252.6 258.2
 9 243.0 249.7 242.8 245.3 249.1 257.2 228.2 258.3
 10 232.0 258.8 264.8 257.1 259.5 263.9 272.0 241.1
 11 281.0 235.2 261.7 267.7 259.0 262.1 265.8 274.9
 12 285.0 296.1 247.9 275.6 280.3 271.8 276.0 279.6

 K‐5 1,640.0 1,675.3 1,665.8 1,699.0 1,692.4 1,688.6 1,677.7 1,659.9
 6‐8 731.0 731.8 748.8 729.2 735.7 740.5 781.2 800.9
 9‐12 1,041.0 1,039.8 1,017.2 1,045.7 1,047.9 1,055.0 1,042.0 1,053.9
 K‐12 3,412.0 3,446.9 3,431.8 3,473.9 3,476.0 3,484.1 3,500.9 3,514.7

Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries




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Individual School Projections by Residence

Attendance Area Peaks Island School Projection Date 1/22/2015
 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 K 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7
 1 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7
 2 12.0 2.9 7.8 8.0 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.5
 3 11.0 12.4 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.7 7.5
 4 13.0 9.7 10.9 2.6 7.0 7.2 6.5 6.8
 5 8.0 13.5 10.1 11.3 2.7 7.3 7.5 6.7
 6 8.0 8.6 14.5 10.8 12.1 2.9 7.8 8.0
 7 13.0 8.2 8.8 14.9 11.1 12.5 3.0 8.1
 8 8.0 12.1 7.7 8.2 13.9 10.3 11.6 2.8
 9 9.0 7.3 11.0 7.0 7.5 12.6 9.4 10.6
 10 7.0 8.6 6.9 10.5 6.6 7.1 12.0 8.9
 11 4.0 8.0 9.7 7.9 11.9 7.6 8.1 13.7
 12 9.0 3.7 7.3 9.0 7.3 11.0 6.9 7.4

 K‐5 55.0 54.7 47.4 45.1 40.3 44.6 44.4 43.9
 6‐8 29.0 28.9 31.0 33.9 37.1 25.7 22.4 18.9
 9‐12 29.0 27.6 34.9 34.4 33.3 38.3 36.4 40.6

Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries




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Attendance Matrices

Three attendance matrices have been included to provide a better understanding of
where students reside and where they attend school. Remember, DDP projections
are based upon where the students reside, not where they attend school. DDP uses
the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of
enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate prediction of future facilities
adjustments. Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students
reside, the figures used as a base for each school's resident projection may differ
from the actual reported enrollment for each school.

These attendance matrices act as a check and balance for student accounting. They
show where the students reside (in what School of Residence) based upon our
address matching capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance)
based upon data in the student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these
matrices is essential to showing how the students used in the projections match up
to the District’s records of enrollment for each school. The best way to plan for
future facilities changes is to know where the next group of students will be residing,
not necessarily which school they are currently attending.
READING THE MATRIX
Looking at the K-5 Elementary School Attendance Matrix below, let us begin with
East End as an example. Following down the first column with the East End heading,
there are 358 K-5 grade students who attend East End and reside in the East End
attendance area. Continuing downward, nine students attend East End that resides
in the Hall attendance area. Next, the matrix shows that four students attend East
End and reside in the Longfellow’s attendance area, and so on.

The row Out of District refers to students who live completely outside of the
Portland Public Schools, but attend one of the District's schools. There is one Out of
District students attending East End. Total Attendance shows the total number of
students attending a school regardless of where they reside, and reflects the
District’s enrollment counts for each school. There are 410 students attending East
End.

The next step is to read across the matrix, beginning with the East End attendance
area row. We understand that the 358 represents the total number of K-5 grade
students that reside in the East End attendance area and attend East End. The next
column, Hall, refers to the number of K-5 grade students that reside in the East End
attendance area, but attend Hall. Two students reside in the East End attendance
area and attend Hall.

The Total Residence column is the total number of students living in each particular
attendance area. There are 399 K-5 students residing in the East End attendance




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Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report


area. The Total Attendance row is the actual number of students used as the base
or actual number for each attendance area in the Fall 2012/13 projections




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 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report



 School of Attendance
 E a s t E nd C o m m unit y H a ll E S Lo ngf e llo w E S Lys e t h E S Ocean A ve ES P e a k s Is la nd E S P re s um ps c o t E S R e ic he C o m m unit y R iv e rt o n E S C lif f Is la nd R e s ide nc e % A t t e nding
 E a s t E nd C o m m unit y 358 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 9 0 375 95%
 H a ll E S 5 352 16 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 381 92%



School of Residence
 Lo ngf e llo w E S 1 8 280 1 7 0 1 1 0 0 299 94%
 Lys e t h E S 2 2 5 445 6 0 6 0 5 0 471 94%
 Ocean A ve ES 27 28 19 1 394 0 1 25 7 0 502 78%
 P e a k s Is la nd E S 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 2 0 3 55 91%
 P re s um ps c o t E S 5 7 5 12 1 0 268 0 3 0 301 89%
 R e ic he C o m m unit y 3 4 3 3 4 0 0 341 8 0 366 93%
 R iv e rt o n E S 6 20 11 12 5 0 4 1 396 0 455 87%

 O ut o f D is t ric t 1 1 1 9 1 2 0 6 3 0 24
 Unm a t c he d 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 0 6


 T o t a l A t t e nda nc e 408 422 340 486 421 52 281 387 435 3 3,235 Total 2014/15 K-5

 Transfer Students 50 70 60 41 27 2 13 46 39 3 351
 % o f To tal 12% 17% 18% 8% 6% 4% 5% 12% 9% 100% 11%




 School of Attendance
 King M S * Linc o ln M S M o o re M S R e s ide nc e % A t t e nding
 King M S * 377 14 8 399 94%
 Linc o ln M S 28 427 17 472 90%




 School of Residence
 M o o re M S 54 46 464 564 82%

 O ut o f D is t ric t 13 3 6 22
 Unm a t c he d 1 0 0 1


 T o t a l A t t e nda nc e 473 490 495 1,458 Total 2014/15 6-8

 Transfer Students 96 63 31 190
 % o f To tal 20% 13% 6% 13%
 *D o e s no t inc lude 2 9 s t ude nt s liv ing in t he Is la nds a t t e nding King M S




 School of Attendance
 D e e ring H S P o rt la nd H S C asco B ay H S R e s ide nc e % A t t e nding
 D e e ring H S 543 309 184 1,036 52%
 P o rt la nd H S 366 508 167 1,041 49%




 School of Residence
 O ut o f D is t ric t 26 21 9 56
 Unm a t c he d 1 0 0 1


 T o t a l A t t e nda nc e 936 838 360 2,134 Total 2014/15 9-12

 Transfer Students 393 330 360 1,083
 % o f To tal 42% 39% 100% 51%
 *D o e s no t inc lude 2 9 s t ude nt s liv ing in t he Is la nds a t t e nding P o rt la nd H S ( 2 1) a nd C a s c o B a y H S ( 8 )




 March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 15
 Enrollment Comparisons (October 1 enrollments)
ELEMENTARY 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Jack 262 244 286 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Peaks Island 61 48 46 49 48 54 48 48 49 48 52 57 64 62 53 52
Adams/East End (2006) 113 98 102 189 186 147 144 441 426 424 399 451 437 412 415 423
Hall 433 445 456 457 432 442 445 471 471 448 463 457 450 441 453 435
Lyseth 670 628 584 571 565 547 541 544 533 529 493 505 515 524 517 492
Longfellow 362 335 342 333 357 341 347 345 337 371 398 395 391 385 377 346
Presumpscot 252 243 234 214 253 241 257 241 253 271 260 291 273 283 281 297
Baxter 199 151 167 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cliff Island 7 8 6 10 8 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4
Riverton 464 482 451 451 469 481 470 434 427 446 459 464 401 427 454 466
Reiche 499 521 446 499 520 489 456 310 337 317 308 336 334 369 366 400
Clifford/Ocean (2011) 280 205 216 308 303 299 321 263 278 284 309 314 431 449 442 421
West/Bayside Lng Commun 10 12 20 15 15 21 16 19 13 0 8


Total Elementary 3,602 3,408 3,336 3,211 3,151 3,059 3,056 3,118 3,132 3,165 3,162 3,275 3,300 3,356 3,362 3,336

MIDDLE SCHOOLS
King 593 578 529 502 508 512 480 501 498 488 539 546 545 534 538 508
Lincoln 630 602 623 618 595 590 520 449 448 468 472 441 472 473 482 498
Moore 729 694 699 660 643 644 596 550 524 542 549 531 508 484 497 495
West 23 14 15 12 12 12 11 5 0 4


Total Middle School 1,952 1,874 1,851 1,780 1,746 1,769 1,610 1,515 1,482 1,510 1,572 1,518 1,525 1,491 1,517 1,501
HIGH SCHOOLS
Portland 1,063 1085 1,136 1,143 1,227 1,191 1,107 1,085 1,009 909 907 1,011 938 921 877 882
Deering 1,252 1348 1,375 1,354 1,375 1,325 1,326 1,249 1,228 1,158 1,067 1,032 962 960 943 951
Casco Bay 82 169 186 231 247 276 276 279 335 368
West 12 17 16 24 16 18 10 10 0 15


Total High School 2,315 2,433 2,511 2,497 2,602 2,528 2,532 2,519 2,447 2,314 2,221 2,319 2,176 2,160 2,155 2,201
Pre-K 46 70 83 77 96
West 45 49 45 55 40 28 0 0 27
TOTAL SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT 7,914 7,764 7,743 7,543 7,499 7,356 7,198 7,152 7,061 6,989 6,955 7,112 7,001 7,007 7,034 7,038
Change -150 -21 -200 -44 -143 -158 -46 -91 -50 -34 157 -111 6 27 4
Percent change -1.90% -0.27% -2.58% -0.58% -1.91% -2.15% -0.64% -1.27% -0.60% -0.49% 2.26% -1.56% 0.09% 0.39% 0.06%


 10/16/2003 3/7/2008 11/16/2009 12/12/2011 12/11/2012 11/7/2013 9/24/2014