Tropical Storm Isaac expected to rebound as hurricane as it moves toward Florida 
 
 By Anna M. Phillips and Marissa Lang, Times Staff Writers 
 
 In Print: Friday, August 24, 2012 
 
 The Tampa Bay Times Forum, shown on the Garrison Channel, is in evacuation Zone B for category 2 hurricanes. It is the main site of the Republican National Convention beginning Monday. RNC officials said Thursday that they expect the convention to go on. 
 
 It was only yesterday that Joe Morelli finished righting the palm trees knocked askew by Tropical Storm Debby on Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa. 
 
 On the Pinellas beaches, the Pass-a-Grille Marina is still a work zone a month after a tornado spawned by Debby ripped off its roof. 
 
 The rivers are swollen, the beaches are eroded and some areas are still water-logged from a combination of Debby and heavy rains this week. 
 
 The threat of a strike from Tropical Storm Isaac comes at a time when Tampa Bay is particularly vulnerable to storm surge, flooding and high winds. 
 
 "If it hits us, we're definitely worse off than we were before Debby," said Andy Squires, Pinellas County coastal manager. 
 
 Forecasters were still uncertain late Thursday night how Isaac would affect Tampa Bay, though the forecasts throughout the day had the storm veering farther to the west — and perhaps away from the bay area. 
 
 The storm was about 190 miles southwest of Puerto Rico on Thursday evening, and heading toward Hispaniola and Cuba. Forecasters said it could be a hurricane by today. 
 
 If it continues on its current route, Isaac could make a left turn out into the Gulf of Mexico, sparing Tampa from a direct hit while the city is simultaneously welcoming about 50,000 visitors for the Republican National Convention. 
 
 But the region is not out of harm's way. 
 
 Forecasters on Thursday could not say with certainty what Isaac will look like when it emerges from Hispaniola and Cuba. National Hurricane Center forecaster Jack Beven said the tropical storm could weaken to the point where it would be unable to regroup and gather speed. But if it trains around the islands and sits over warm water, which strengthens hurricanes, it could become a major storm before moving into the gulf. 
 
 Compared to Debby, which had tropical storm winds extending 200 miles from its center, Isaac's winds reach 185 miles out. And with an average speed of 18 mph, it is traveling faster than its predecessor, which parked over the bay area for days before moving on. 
 
 Isaac could be bad news for coastal areas prone to the effects of storm surge, experts said. Surge is difficult to predict as it depends largely on rapidly changing factors such as a storm's size, speed, reach and intensity. Beven noted "significant uncertainty" remains about Isaac's ability to harm Florida. 
 
 Emergency management officials in Hillsborough and Pinellas said it was too soon to predict whether the storm surge and rainfall would flood neighborhoods and force evacuations or bypass the Gulf Coast of Florida on its way north. 
 
 "The models are all over the place right now, and we're not going to declare a state of emergency until we've got a higher probability of the storm coming here," said Pinellas County spokesman Tom Iovino. 
 
 Declaring a state of emergency would propel the county's storm-response systems into action and give them the authority to call for evacuations, a step they would take in low-lying areas that are likely to flood or in regions that, though dry, could easily be cut off from major roads and bridges by rising water levels. Both counties have five evacuation levels — lettered A through E — that depend on the severity of the storm. Because of mobile home parks' susceptibility to high winds, their residents are required to leave regardless of the likelihood of flooding. 
 
 When the "preponderence of data" tips toward major flooding, county officials make the call, Iovino said. There is no set threshold. 
 
 Hillsborough County Sheriff David Gee dismissed the possibility of damage from storm surge, noting that Pinellas, with its barrier islands in the gulf, is more likely to get swamped. 
 
 But if Isaac were to approach the bay area from the southwest, high winds would move mass amounts of water into Tampa Bay, causing tremendous flooding, particularly in Hillsborough County, where the Interbay Peninsula could be virtually under water. 
 
 Most forecasters do not think Isaac will come from this angle, but they noted that its projected route would bring it parallel to the peninsula and could create threatening waves and flooding. 
 
 The bay area's rivers and lakes are already elevated after several days of heavy rainfall, and in Hillsborough, officials issued flood warnings for three rivers: Little Manatee in Wimauma, Alafia River in Lithia and Cypress Creek in Worthington Gardens. The Hillsborough River is also rising, they said. 
 
 In Pinellas County, this week's rains overwhelmed a water treatment plant, prompting officials to urge residents to cut back on flushing toilets, washing clothes and bathing. 
 
 Many of Pinellas County's beaches, which lost more sand to Tropical Storm Debby than any other storm in the past decade, still look bruised, their dunes eviscerated and hundreds of thousands of cubic yards of expensive sand lost to offshore sandbars. As natural barriers shielding homes and businesses from damage, the dunes are not in fighting condition. 
 
 "South of Sand Key, Pinellas beaches are pretty sad," said Squires, the Pinellas coastal manager. 
 
 Last week, he delivered 4,000 sea oat seedlings to Sand Key beach, where contractors have been dredging sand miles offshore and pumping it back onto the beach. Planted in hopes that they would eventually rebuild sand dunes, the oats could easily be washed out to sea in a storm. 
 
 University of South Florida geology professor Ping Wang predicted that a stronger and faster storm like Isaac would bring higher waves and more dune erosion than Debby. The sandbars will slow down the water somewhat, he said, but are likely too small to prevent a storm surge from rising over them and past seawalls, dunes, and roadways. 
 
 Morelli, who is responsible for the 42 Florida date palms that line Bayshore Boulevard, said he hoped they would withstand another storm. 
 
 "As long as the water recedes quickly, they should be fine," he said. "It's that brutal wind that just tears things up." 
 
 Times staff writer Jessica Vander Velde contributed to this report. ||||| Story highlights In Port-au-Prince, no signs of storm preparation as Haitians unaware storm is coming 
 
 The storm could become a hurricane before it reaches Hispaniola 
 
 It could pose dangers to Haitians still recovering from the deadly 2010 earthquake 
 
 It's unclear whether the storm will affect the GOP convention in Florida next week 
 
 As Tropical Storm Isaac swirls in the Caribbean -- becoming more powerful mile by mile -- it threatens to unleash disaster once again on vulnerable and often unaware Haitians by Friday night. 
 
 The possibility of stinging rain and tree-bending wind descending on the hundreds of thousands of Haitians living in camps has aid groups in the country on high alert. 
 
 By the time Isaac strikes Haiti, it is forecast to be at hurricane strength, bringing destructive wind and water to an area still recovering from a devastating 2010 earthquake. 
 
 As much of 12 inches of rain is forecast for some parts of the country, posing danger to the more than 400,000 Haitians in the camps. 
 
 Many of those people had no idea that a storm was coming, CNN correspondent Gary Tuchman reported from Port-au-Prince. Not until a translator told them that a potential hurricane was nearing did people in the streets know of Isaac's approach or that the government had opened some shelters. Residents of one tent community said they were staying put with their belongings and would ride out the storm. 
 
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 There were no signs of hurricane preparations in the city, no buildings being boarded up in Port-au-Prince. 
 
 Isaac threatens to bring more destruction, cholera to Haiti 
 
 "These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. 
 
 Isaac also poses a risk to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida. The storm could hit anywhere in the state, Gov. Rick Scott said Thursday, and it will be up to convention organizers to decide the fate of the event. 
 
 But before it nears Florida, Isaac is forecast to run over Hispaniola, the island that's home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 
 
 "The risks are obvious in terms of flooding of low-lying areas," said Jean-Michel Vigreux, director for CARE International in Haiti. 
 
 Even though two-and-a-half years have passed since the earthquake, its impact on the country cannot be understated, he said. 
 
 Large amounts of rainfall will cause mudslides and runoff that can block roads, or worse. 
 
 "The country is still recovering from the earthquake. It's difficult to imagine that (a storm) will hurt the most vulnerable places again," Vigreux said. 
 
 As of 8 p.m. ET, Isaac was about 210 miles (340 kilometers) southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, the center said. 
 
 It was moving to the west-northwest near 16 mph with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. 
 
 The center of the storm is forecast to approach the Dominican Republic on Thursday night and move over the south coast of Hispaniola on Friday, the center said. 
 
 While the storm is yet to reach hurricane strength, it has already delivered shock waves to the Caribbean, postponing a hearing for September 11 terrorist attack suspects at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. 
 
 "Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Isaac could still become a hurricane on Friday before it reaches Hispaniola," according to forecasters. 
 
 Aid organizations were keeping an eye on Haiti. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, 421,000 people are in camps in and around Port-au-Prince, the capital. 
 
 Isaac could be the first significant storm to hit Haiti since the devastating earthquake. Tropical Storm Emily threatened in 2011, but it weakened before hitting western Haiti. 
 
 The forecast map shows Isaac crossing the nation as a tropical storm with winds under 74 mph. 
 
 "We watch those storms every single time they come near because Haiti is so vulnerable," said Amy Parodi, a spokeswoman for the Christian humanitarian organization World Vision. 
 
 The agency has met with the government in previous summers to discuss contingency plans for major storms, and pre-positioned relief items are available, she said. 
 
 Isaac's path remains uncertain, but some computer models show the storm slicing its way up Florida's peninsula. Others send it farther west, into the Gulf of Mexico. 
 
 Officials are taking the threat seriously. 
 
 "Obviously, we hope Isaac doesn't hit Florida, but we must take every precaution," said Scott, the Florida governor. 
 
 While the convention will have the final say on any changes to the planned event, the organizers are working with state and local officials to ensure everyone has the same information, the governor said. 
 
 But Tampa is not the only part of Florida that could be hit, and Scott urged Floridians to be prepared. 
 
 "What everyone needs to do is to starting tracking it, watch the weather, heed any warnings, get ready, get 72 hours' worth of supplies," he said. 
 
 Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said his city is prepared for the 50,000 people headed to there for the Republican National Convention, which starts Monday. 
 
 "We have contingency plan after contingency plan," Buckhorn said. "We are ready in the event that it happens. I don't think it's going to be a factor in this particular convention. But we are prepared in the event that it is." 
 
 Scott said that any police officers who were going to Tampa will still go, and the Florida National Guard will stand ready to back up authorities around the state. 
 
 He said he spoke with Republican candidate Mitt Romney and assured him the state would be ready for the convention. 
 
 "We're a hospitality state that knows how to deal with hurricanes," he said. 
 
 Possibly complicating matters, the convention site -- The Tampa Bay Times Forum -- is a mandatory evacuation zone once storms reach 96 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, according to the Hillsborough County Hurricane Guide. The current forecast doesn't have Isaac reaching that status. 
 
 At the Guantanamo Bay base, officials canceled the pretrial arguments scheduled to get under way in the trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four others. 
 
 Mohammed, who has been held since 2006, is facing charges related to the 9/11 attacks. 
 
 Pentagon officials said all court events at Guantanamo were canceled because of the potential hurricane. All detainees have been moved to buildings that can withstand such a storm, and those who flew in for the hearing went back home. 
 
 Officials in the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm warning for the nation's southern coast. 
 
 Isaac's impact will be felt in several areas: 
 
 Bahamas 
 
 The government has issued a tropical storm warning for the southeastern Bahamas, including Long Cay. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Friday. 
 
 Cuba 
 
 The storm is projected to near Cuba on Friday night. The Cuban government has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. 
 
 Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands 
 
 The storm was passing south of the islands Thursday, and there were tropical storm conditions forecast through Thursday evening. The forecast called for 2 to 4 inches of rain and as much as 6 inches at higher elevations. The storm surge was expected to be 1 to 3 feet higher than normal but gradually subside during the night. Dangerous surf and rip currents will affect waters there for the next few days. 
 
 Turks and Caicos 
 
 A tropical storm warning is in effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected by late Friday. 
 
 United States 
 
 Outer bands of the storm could reach Florida by Sunday. But the eye of the storm could make landfall anywhere from Galveston, Texas, to the Carolinas, CNN Meteorologist Chad Myers said. The five-day projection from the hurricane center puts the storm approaching U.S. landfall on the Florida peninsula Tuesday. 
 
 Bracing for Isaac? Share your images with CNN iReport, but stay safe. ||||| Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands braced for torrential rains on Thursday as Tropical Storm Isaac whipped up waves as high as 10 feet (3 meters) in the Caribbean and threatened to become a hurricane that could take a shot at Florida just as Republicans gather for their national convention. 
 
 Dr. Lixion Avila, senior hurricane specialist, foreground, updates Dr. Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, on other developing tropical storms Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, at the National... (Associated Press) 
 
 This NOAA satellite image taken Thursday, Aug. 23, 2012 at 1:45 a.m. EDT shows Tropical Storm Isaac spinning over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is now about 265 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto... (Associated Press) 
 
 Map locates Tropical Storm Isaac and its projected path for the next five days (Associated Press) 
 
 Some flooding was reported in eastern and southern regions of Puerto Rico as the storm approached. 
 
 U.S. forecasters said Isaac will likely turn into a Category 1 hurricane by Friday as it nears the Dominican Republic and Haiti. It was expected to weaken a little while heading over their island and Cuba. 
 
 The storm was projected to head toward Florida as a hurricane by Monday, but the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said some forecast models show it could go further west into the Gulf of Mexico, so "significant uncertainty remains about the threat Isaac poses to Florida." 
 
 Isaac was centered 200 miles (320) kilometers south-southeast of Puerto Rico late Thursday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). It was moving west at 15 mph (24 kph) according to the Hurricane Center. 
 
 The system has slowed down, and as a result, the island will see more rain, said Ernesto Morales, forecaster with the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico. 
 
 "This is not the moment to become complacent," he said. 
 
 The U.S. territory has opened 428 shelters, and 50 people have taken refuge, said Gov. Luis Fortuno. Some 4,000 people were without power and more than 3,000 without water. 
 
 Schools and government offices remained closed Thursday, but the governor said it was safe for people to go to work if they needed to. However, he warned everyone to stay away from beaches and swollen rivers. 
 
 "It's not the day to participate in recreational activities in these areas," Fortuno said. 
 
 While Isaac itself has caused on reported injuries or deaths, police in Puerto Rico say a 75-year-old woman died near the capital of San Juan on Wednesday when she fell off a second-floor balcony while filling a drum with water in preparation for the storm. 
 
 Puerto Rico's main international airport remained open, but Cape Air and American Eagle cancelled all their flights Thursday, Fortuno said. Ferry service to the tourist islands of Vieques and Culebra also was temporarily suspended. 
 
 In Vieques, one of the owners of Bananas Guesthouse said his brother had called from Florida and suggested he tell reporters "there are mudslides and cows flying through the air. But in fact, there's a breeze going by," Glenn Curry said. "We've had a little bit of rain. Nothing much has happened so far ... Overnight it didn't even blow enough to wake me up." 
 
 In the U.S. Virgin Islands town of Christiansted, streets lined with historic buildings of Danish architecture, were largely deserted. All but a small handful of businesses and government offices were closed. Hurricane shutters covered the entrances to most buildings and sandbags were stacked in anticipation of potential floods and storm surge. 
 
 Two shelters were open on the island, and 10 people were housed overnight, according to Elton Lewis, director of the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency. 
 
 In St. Croix, the owners of Turtle's, a seaside restaurant, were baking bread for sandwiches, selling coffee and snacks to the few passersby and fielding calls from people about the weather. 
 
 "Yes, we're open," Mary Scribner said cheerily. "No, it's not raining!" 
 
 The Scribners pulled out sandbags in case the predicted storm surge or flooding impacted their business, but by mid-morning, the sandbags sat in a pile in the corner. 
 
 "We didn't see this as a big deal," Bob Scribner said. "Moderate rain and wind." 
 
 The storm already forced military authorities at the U.S. base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to cancel pretrial hearings for five prisoners charged in the Sept. 11 attacks. They also planned to evacuate about 200 people, including legal teams and relatives of Sept. 11 victims. 
 
 Isaac also posed a threat to next week's Republican National Convention in Tampa, where officials said they were ready to take emergency measures even as 70,000 delegates, journalists and protesters descend on the city. 
 
 "Public safety will always trump politics," Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said. "And so my job, and our job, if we move into that mode, is to make sure we get people out of harm's way." 
 
 In St. Kitts, the government said all businesses and schools were open after Isaac passed through late Wednesday. 
 
 In Dominica, the government said no damage or injuries were reported. The airport and seaports have reopened and things are back to normal, said Benoit Bardouille, CEO of the island's Air & Seaport Authority. 
 
 However, Disaster Coordinator Don Coriette warned that heavy rains would persist through Friday. 
 
 "Dominica has been spared the full brunt of Tropical Storm Isaac," he said. "We want to thank the almighty God for that." 
 
 Meanwhile, another tropical storm, Joyce, formed over the open water of the eastern Atlantic. Forecasters said it does not pose an immediate threat to land. The Hurricane Center in Miami said Thursday the storm has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65 kph). Little change in strength was expected in the next 48 hours. 
 
 ___ 
 
 Associated Press reporters Jason Bronis in Frederiksted, St. Croix; Carlisle Jno Baptiste in Roseau, Dominica; Clive Bacchus in Basseterre, St. Kitts; and Tamara Lush in Tampa contributed to this report.
– Tropical Storm Isaac still has the potential to foul up Republicans' convention plans in Florida, but relief agencies are more worried about Haiti at the moment. Isaac is expected to be at hurricane strength when it rolls in tomorrow night—the first major storm to hit since the 2010 earthquake, reports CNN. Especially vulnerable are the more than 400,000 people still living in refugee camps around Port-au-Prince. The storm should hit Tampa on Monday, though the Tampa Bay Times reports that the latest computer models show it tracking further west of Florida, which would lessen the impact. Forecasters will know more as they watch Isaac's path and strength over the next few days. Puerto Rico is already getting torrential rains, and Isaac will then hit the Dominican Republican and Haiti, before heading toward Cuba and the US, reports the AP.