File photo of Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin is seen over the Bahamas in the Atlantic Ocean in this NOAA GOES East satellite image taken at 08:45 ET (12:45 GMT) October 2, 2015. 
 
 The Atlantic Ocean could be gearing up for an active hurricane season, meaning North American residents may want to pay attention. 
 
 In recent years, single hurricanes have led to thousands of deaths across the Caribbean, North and Central America, and have caused several billion dollars in damage. 
 
 When a hurricane bears down on a region, it not only puts people in peril, but it affects just about every major industry in the area, adding extra importance to the annual hurricane forecast. 
 
 On average, the Atlantic Basin observes around 11 named tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes during any given season, which runs from June through November. But those numbers could be a bit higher this year thanks to the atmospheric set-up that is currently brewing. 
 
 The expected introduction of a cool-water La Niña pattern in the Pacific over the next couple of months is generally favorable for tropical development. This, together with a few other dominant variables, will provide Mother Nature with all the ingredients to wreak havoc on the Atlantic Basin if she so wishes. 
 
 HURRICANE CRASH COURSE 
 
 Hurricanes need three main ingredients to form: warm sea surface temperatures, minimal to no wind shear, and an area of organized, long-lasting thunderstorms. These storms tend to originate off the western coast of Africa. 
 
 Wind shear simply characterizes how wind speed and direction change with height. Strong thunderstorms, and thus hurricanes, rely on strong vertical motion in the atmosphere. Too much wind shear prevents the vertical development of the storms, reducing their intensity. 
 
 Once formed, hurricanes must be fed by constant moisture to stay in business. When dry Saharan Desert air is transported into the tropics en masse, it disrupts tropical systems and essentially “starves” the storm to death. 
 
 The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The peak occurs when the Northern Atlantic is at its warmest – around the second week of September – and this is statistically the most common time for a hurricane to occur. 
 
 However, hurricanes and tropical storms can form outside of this six-month window if the conditions are just right. In fact, the 2016 hurricane season already has one storm under its belt with Hurricane Alex, which formed under extremely rare circumstances this January. 
 
 Once a cluster of thunderstorms starts to display organized rotation with sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 miles per hour, it is classified as a “tropical storm” and is assigned a human name by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The name will stick with the storm through its life as a hurricane, if it becomes one. 
 
 Since 1953, the NHC has used an alphabetical fixed list of names that alternate male and female. Each list is cycled every six years, and storm names can be “retired” in any given year given the sensitive nature of particularly devastating storms. Recent retirees include Sandy, Katrina and Ike. 
 
 If sustained winds reach 74 mph, the tropical storm becomes a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes by intensity on a scale of 1 through 5, with 5 being the most extreme (reut.rs/25iK0NP). 
 
 If the winds increase to 111 mph, the hurricane is upgraded to a category 3. Hurricanes of categories 3 and above are considered “major” hurricanes. 
 
 Hurricanes are only labeled as such in the Atlantic Ocean and northeastern Pacific. A “hurricane” that occurs in the northwestern Pacific is called a typhoon and one that occurs in the Indian Ocean or Southern Pacific is known as a cyclone. 
 
 2016: PERFECT STORM? 
 
 One of the most important factors playing into this season is the imminent presence of La Niña, the cold phase of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña tends to decrease the wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is one enabling ingredient in hurricane formation. 
 
 Therefore, it is not surprising that some of the more active hurricane seasons over the past several decades were often associated with La Niña. Seasons with below-normal hurricane activity have coincided with La Niña in the past, but this has not occurred since 1978 (reut.rs/1OJQKak). 
 
 Since 1950, the only above-average hurricane season to occur during El Niño was 2004, right in the middle of a four-year stretch of anomalously warm global oceans. The following year, 2005, remains the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history. 
 
 But this year, both La Niña and warm oceans side with the hurricanes. Global ocean temperatures have been breaking new record highs over the past several months, meaning that together with reduced wind shear via La Niña, the atmosphere is practically rolling out the red carpet for the procession to begin. 
 
 And the favorability does not end there, as there should be plenty of fuel available for tropical development. Year-to-date precipitation over the African Sahel has been above average, which will reduce both the availability and distribution of dry, hurricane-disruptive air into the tropics during the season. 
 
 WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW 
 
 First and foremost, in no way should this forecast incite fear. An expected above-average forecast for the hurricane season does not specify whether these storms will make landfall. But either way, there are some important implications of these storms that should be considered. 
 
 The impact on commodity markets can be significant. Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico can grind to a halt if a hurricane is expected to approach. The Energy Information Administration projected that the Gulf produced 17 percent of U.S. crude oil in 2015. This is down from 27 percent in 2003, but any tropical disturbance in the Gulf could certainly give an upward jolt to generally suppressed oil prices. 
 
 Major agricultural commodities are generally less affected by hurricanes, although there are several instances where hurricanes made a difference. One occurred during the active hurricane season of 2012 when remnants of Hurricane Isaac traveled onshore to the U.S. interior in late August and gave parched soybeans a much-needed drink amid the historic drought. 
 
 Finally, there are things that we as humans need to remember. Hurricane advisories are generally issued several days in advance of the storm, and sometimes up to a week or more, so there is almost always enough time to prepare and evacuate if necessary. 
 
 If a hurricane watch is issued, then hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. A hurricane warning denotes that hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours. 
 
 But keeping a close eye on the news and the weather will help to anticipate these watches and warnings several days in advance. Above all, anyone living along coastal areas of the western Atlantic Basin needs to keep alert for any such hazardous conditions and should follow all recommended measures, including evacuation, in order to ensure maximum safety. 
 
 (Reporting by Karen Braun in Chicago; Editing by Matthew Lewis) ||||| Climate experts from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center are expecting a "near-normal" storm season in the Atlantic, with 10 to 16 tropical storms likely to form this year, and four to eight of those becoming hurricanes that could pose a threat to the Eastern seaboard. 
 
 The center, which announced its annual prediction late Friday morning, said there's a 45 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. 
 
 Tropical system could spoil Memorial Day in NJ 
 
 "This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it's difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center. "However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we've seen in the last three years, which were below normal." 
 
 Contributing to the uncertainty is the status of two significant weather patterns on the other side of the country: El Nino and La Nina. Experts say El Nino -- the extreme warming of temperatures in the tropical Pacific -- is expected to dissipate by early this summer, and La Nina -- when the Pacific waters get cooler than normal -- is projected to develop sometime between August and October, during the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. 
 
 "La Nina favors a more active hurricane season," the prediction center noted. 
 
 Other hurricane season predictions 
 
 In early April, long-range forecasters at AccuWeather said they are expecting 14 named storms in the Atlantic this year -- two more than the average number and three more than the 11 that formed in 2015. Of those 14, eight are likely to be hurricanes and six tropical storms. 
 
 Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science, which also issues tropical forecasts each year, said it expects 12 named storms this season. Of those storms, researchers expect five to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. 
 
 The most active Atlantic hurricane seasons during recent years were 2010 and 2012. Each of those years, there were 19 named storms, with 12 strengthening into hurricanes in 2010 and 10 becoming hurricanes in 2012, including Sandy, which caused widespread destruction in New Jersey. 
 
 Although the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, one hurricane that formed earlier this year counts as part of the 2016 hurricane season. Back in January, when people in the Northeast were bracing for a nasty blizzard, a rare winter tropical storm formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, and it was named Alex. The storm strengthened into a hurricane on Jan. 14, then weakened into a tropical storm as it hit the Azores Islands off the coast of Portugal. 
 
 Memorial Day spoiler? 
 
 Meanwhile, forecasters are keeping a close eye on a weather system near Florida that could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend and threaten coastal areas from northern Georgia to southern Virginia. 
 
 That system has the potential of dumping heavy rain on New Jersey late Sunday into Monday, forecasters said. 
 
 Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook. ||||| NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a near-normal season is most likely with a 45 percent chance, there is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. Included in today’s outlook is Hurricane Alex, a pre-season storm that formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January. 
 
 “This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. "However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.” 
 
 Dr. Gerry Bell discusses the 2016 Hurricane Season. Download Dr. Gerry Bell discusses the 2016 Hurricane Season. (NOAA) 
 
 Bell explained there is uncertainty about whether the high activity era of Atlantic hurricanes, which began in 1995, has ended. This high-activity era has been associated with an ocean temperature pattern called the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation or AMO, marked by warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a stronger West African monsoon. However, during the last three years weaker hurricane seasons have been accompanied by a shift toward the cool AMO phase, marked by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a weaker West African monsoon. If this shift proves to be more than short-lived, it could usher in a low-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, and this period may already have begun. High- and low-activity eras typically last 25 to 40 years. 
 
 In addition, El Niño is dissipating and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 70 percent chance that La Niña — which favors more hurricane activity — will be present during the peak months of hurricane season, August through October. However, current model predictions show uncertainty as to how strong La Niña and its impacts will be. 
 
 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (NOAA) Download Image 
 
 Despite the challenging seasonal prediction, NOAA is poised to deliver actionable environmental intelligence during the hurricane season with more accuracy to help save lives and livelihoods and enhance the national economy as we continue building a Weather-Ready Nation. 
 
 “This is a banner year for NOAA and the National Weather Service — As our Hurricane Forecast Improvement Programoffsite link turns five, we’re on target with our five-year goal to improve track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent each,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D. “Building on a successful supercomputer upgrade in January, we’re adding unprecedented new capabilities to our hurricane forecast models — investing in science and technology infusion to bring more accuracy to hurricane forecasts in 2016.” 
 
 Coming online later this season are major new investments to further improve NOAA’s ability to monitor hurricanes as they form and provide more timely and accurate warnings for their impacts. NOAA’s new National Water Model — set to launch later this summer — will provide hourly water forecasts for 700 times more locations than our current flood forecast system, greatly enhancing our ability to forecast inland flooding from tropical systems. In the fall, NOAA will launch GOES-R, a next generation weather satellite that will scan the Earth five times faster, with a resolution four times greater than ever before, to produce much sharper images of hurricanes and other severe weather. 
 
 NOAA works with a number of partners in the private and public sectors to ensure communities and businesses have the information they need to act well ahead of a land-falling hurricane. 
 
 “While seasonal forecasts may vary from year to year — some high, some low — it only takes one storm to significantly disrupt your life,” stated FEMA Deputy Administrator Joseph Nimmich. “Preparing for the worst can keep you, your family, and first responders out of harm’s way. Take steps today to be prepared: develop a family communications plan, build an emergency supply kit for your home, and make sure you and your family know your evacuation route. These small steps can help save your life when disaster strikes.” 
 
 NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the peak of the season. 
 
 2016 Atlantic hurricane season tropial cyclone names. (NOAA) Download Image 
 
 NOAA also issued its outlook for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific basins. The central Pacific hurricane outlook calls for equal 40 percent chance of a near-normal or above-normal season with 4-7 tropical cyclones likely. The eastern Pacific hurricane outlook calls for a 40 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season. That outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 13-20 named storms, of which 6-11 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes. 
 
 NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and our other social media channels.
– Residents along the Eastern Seaboard might want to start preparing, mentally at least, for a more hurricane-heavy year than they've had recently. After three years of below-normal hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, 2016 is shaping up to be closer to normal, NOAA reports. There's a 70% chance this year's Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, will feature 10 to 16 named storms, those with winds of 39mph or faster. According to NJ.com, there were 11 named storms in 2015. Four to eight of this year's named storms could turn into hurricanes. That's still below the recent hurricane-heavy years of 2010 and 2012, when there were 12 and 10 respectively. “The atmosphere is practically rolling out the red carpet" for hurricanes this year, Reuters reports. La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean tend to increase hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, as do warmer ocean temperatures. And global ocean temperatures have been setting record highs in recent months. However, forecasting this year's hurricane season has been "particularly difficult," according to NOAA. There's a 45% chance of a close-to-normal hurricane season. But there's also a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.