The sun sets over San Francisco and behind the Bay Bridge in this view from the bay in Oakland, Calif., on Thursday, Jan. 16, 2014. California's dry weather is expected to last for another three months according to federal scientists. The Obama administration declared 27 California counties, including most of the Bay Area, as "natural disaster areas." (Jane Tyska/Bay Area News Group) (Jane Tyska/MediaNews Group) 
 
 In a new dose of bad news for a state growing increasingly concerned about lack of rain, California's historically dry weather is expected to last for at least another three months, federal scientists said Thursday. 
 
 The dire forecast for the rest of the state's winter rain season came as federal officials classified much of California as being in "extreme drought." And the Obama administration declared 27 California counties, including most of the Bay Area, as "natural disaster areas," eligible for emergency federal loans for farmers. 
 
 Computer models based on data from satellites, buoys in the Pacific Ocean and other sources favor below-normal levels of rainfall for California, much of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and West Texas until April, according to a new report from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. 
 
 The water level has been declining at Los Padres Reservoir in Carmel Valley, shown on Friday. (VERN FISHER/The Herald) 
 
 "There will be a few precipitation events, but we're looking at drier-than-normal conditions in February, March and April," said Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist with the agency, which is based in College Park, Md. "Right now we are saying the odds do not indicate a Miracle March, which is not a good thing." 
 
 To be sure, long-range forecasts are not as accurate as short-term weather forecasts. The 90-day precipitation outlook for the West has turned out to be right about 60 percent of the time over the last 20 years. 
 
 Gov. Jerry Brown was expected Friday in San Francisco to declare a drought emergency, which would make it easier to transfer water between different regions of the state, and raise awareness for conservation. 
 
 Meanwhile, the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly update of drought conditions by federal agencies and researchers at the University of Nebraska, classified large sections of Northern California, including the Bay Area, as the fourth most severe of five drought categories: "extreme drought." 
 
 "It means that things are not getting better. They are getting drier," said David Simeral, a meteorologist with the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno, who is part of the Drought Monitor team. 
 
 "We're starting to see a lot more impacts showing up around the state," he said. "Groundwater issues, low snowpack, less forage available for cattle grazing, more fire risk." 
 
 Farmers in 27 California counties -- including Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Monterey and San Benito -- declared "natural disaster areas" and in eight adjacent counties -- including San Mateo and Santa Cruz -- can now receive low-interest federal loans. 
 
 "Our hearts go out to those California farmers and ranchers affected," U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said. 
 
 Last week, 27 percent of California's land area was listed as being in "extreme drought." This week it is it is 63 percent -- the most since the Drought Monitor began 14 years ago. 
 
 California is a historically arid place. Los Angeles and San Jose, for example, each get about 15 inches of rain in an average year. That's the same amount as Casablanca, Morocco. The state has periodic droughts but has not suffered a sustained one since 1987-92. 
 
 Increasingly, political leaders and scientists are concerned that California is entering another such period. Sierra Nevada snowpack on Thursday was 17 percent of normal. Last year, most cities in the state received the lowest amount of rain in any living person's lifetime -- with records going back to 1850. 
 
 Although smaller water agencies, such as in Willits, in Mendocino County, where there is just a 100-day supply of water left, are struggling, most large Bay Area water districts have not called for rationing and don't plan to make a decision until March or April. Years of rebates for conservation and increased storage -- both underground at places like the Santa Clara Valley Water District, and in reservoirs, like the recently expanded Los Vaqueros Reservoir in Contra Costa County -- have put them in better positions than during previous dry spells, they say. 
 
 "We are in fair shape and examining our options. But we've been planning for this for a generation," said Abby Figueroa, a spokeswoman for the East Bay Municipal Utility District. 
 
 For the past 13 months, a huge ridge of high-pressure in the atmosphere has sat off the West Coast, blocking storms that normally would bring rain during winter months. 
 
 Such high-pressure zones normally rise and break down as temperatures change and the jet stream shifts every winter, but this one has been different. Some scientists say it may be linked to climate change, which has melted polar ice and warmed the oceans. Others, including many who strongly support the broad scientific consensus that the Earth is warming due to human burning of fossil fuels, say it is too early to know. It may be related to other factors, such as naturally occurring temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean, similar to El Niño and La Niña, or simply random bad luck. 
 
 Part of the National Weather Service's 90-day dry outlook, however, is based on the fact that there is a large section of the North Pacific Ocean where water temperatures now are 4-5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the historic average, Rosencrans said. And water along the California coast is about 1 degree cooler than average -- a condition known as a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which historically has been linked to more high pressure, and drier weather in years past. 
 
 Paul Rogers covers resources and environmental issues. Contact him at 408-920-5045. Follow him at Twitter.com/paulrogerssjmn. ||||| Story highlights Some in Azusa can return home, other wildfire evacuees cannot, police say 
 
 State faces perhaps worst drought since records began 100 years ago 
 
 Governor asks residents and businesses for voluntary 20% conservation 
 
 "This could be a giant fire year" for California, CNN's Chad Myers says 
 
 California Gov. Jerry Brown on Friday declared a drought emergency for the state, saying it is facing "perhaps the worst drought that California has ever seen since records (began) about 100 years ago." 
 
 The governor's announcement, made in San Francisco, came as a wildfire burned Friday with only 30% containment in 1,700 acres of foothills of Los Angeles County near Glendora. An illegal campfire apparently ignited the wildfire, and fire officials cited drought conditions as contributing to the blaze. 
 
 In his declaration, the governor called for voluntary "20% conservation of our water use" statewide. 
 
 "It's important to wake all Californians to the serious matter of the drought and lack of rain," Brown told reporters. "We are in an unprecedented, very serious situation that people should pause and reflect on how dependent we are on the rain, nature and one other. 
 
 "This is an effort to call for arms," he continued. "That's the point of the declaration." 
 
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 Brown said he would set into motion an initiative that would make water transfers easier between regions in the state. 
 
 The snowpack in California's mountains is at 20% of normal levels. The state's largest water reservoirs are below record lows, and the major waterways, including the Sacramento and the San Joaquin rivers, flow with "significantly reduced" water. 
 
 Since 2011, extremely dry conditions have parched the state. 
 
 Under the proclamation, Brown directed officials to take "all necessary actions" to address the drought, including assisting farmers and communities with water shortages. He directed state agencies to use less water and hire more firefighters. 
 
 Ninety percent of California is in a severe drought, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said. "This could be a giant fire year coming up," Myers added. 
 
 Meanwhile, about 800 firefighting personnel brought a Los Angeles-area wildfire under some control Friday, with 30% containment -- an improvement over 0% a day earlier. 
 
 "I've seen the sky turn gray from smoke before during fires here in Los Angeles, but this red sun was more eery than others," said CNN iReporter Corinne Shor from about a 20-minute drive away. "I could also smell the fire and my eyes started to sting." 
 
 About 3,600 people at one point were ordered to evacuate, though that number had fallen to about 1,600 as of late Thursday night, according to Angeles National Forest's update on the Incident Information System's website 
 
 The number of evacuees fell even further Friday, when police in the inland Southern California city of Azusa announced that select residents could return to their homes at 4 p.m. (7 p.m. ET). Residents of Mountain Cove in that city, however, were not being let back in due to continued "concern for the roadway and homes in that area." 
 
 Meanwhile, a red flag warning was extended to Friday because of anticipated warm, dry breezes called Santa Ana winds, InciWeb said. 
 
 The blaze began before dawn Thursday and allegedly originated with three men camping in the foothills near Glendora, authorities said. The campers were tossing paper into a campfire, and a gust of wind spread embers, authorities said. 
 
 The three men, all in their early 20s, were arrested on suspicion of recklessly starting a fire, said Police Chief Tim Staab of Glendora. One man is from Glendora and another is from Irwindale, he said. The third man's home was not known. Bail was set Thursday at $20,000 for each. 
 
 "The way it's told to us is that all three of them were together at the time, sitting around this campfire," he said. "Breeze kicked up, and that's what caused this fire. 
 
 "It's not a camping area, but people do camp up in the hills above Glendora," Staab said. 
 
 The arrests were made after authorities received a call that at least two people were suspiciously walking away from the fire, the chief said. 
 
 The three men arrested were identified as Jonathan Carl Jerrell, 23; Clifford Eugene Henry Jr., 22; and Steven Robert Aguirre, 21, police said. They and their attorneys couldn't be reached for comment. 
 
 The wildfire, named the Colby Fire, destroyed two homes and injured one person Thursday morning, Los Angeles County Fire Chief Daryl Osby said. 
 
 The injured civilian suffered minor burns, Osby told reporters. 
 
 "We predicted that this is going to be an intense fire season because this is the third year of an ongoing drought," he said. 
 
 There hasn't been a fire in Glendora's foothills since 1968, so the area has lots of brush and other fuel for a wildfire, authorities said.
– Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency for California today, over what the governor called "perhaps the worst drought that California has ever seen" in the roughly 100 years the state has been keeping records. Brown asked all residents to voluntarily cut back their water usage by 20%. "It's important to wake all Californians to the serious matter of the drought," Brown said, according to CNN. "We are in an unprecedented, serious situation." He also promised an initiative to facilitate water transfers in the state. More than 90% of California is experiencing drought conditions, and the Obama administration has already declared 27 counties "natural disaster areas." Yesterday the National Weather Service predicted that the dry conditions would drag on for at least three more months, the San Jose Mercury News reports. "We're starting to see a lot more impacts," said one meteorologist. "Groundwater issues, low snowpack, less forage available for cattle grazing." Probably the most visible impact is a 1,700-acre wildfire in the foothills of LA that's still only 30% contained.