The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a dead heat nationally. (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post) 
 
 Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are all but tied in the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which finds Clinton backers slipping behind in enthusiasm even as the Democrat has an edge in early voting. 
 
 The tracking poll finds little shift in Clinton's overall support following news of the FBI's renewed look at Clinton emails, but strong enthusiasm among her supporters fell behind Trump in combined Saturday and Sunday interviews. By 53 to 43 percent, more Trump supporters say they are "very enthusiastic" about him, compared with Thursday and Friday when Trump's edge was negligible (53 percent vs. 51 percent). 
 
 Voter enthusiasm has been in short supply for both Clinton and Trump through the fall campaign and continues to lag excitement about candidates on the ballot four years ago. At this point in 2012, 64 percent of Obama supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about him; Romney was only narrowly behind at 61 percent. 
 
 Trump and Clinton continue to run nearly even in overall vote preferences, with Trump at 46 percent and Clinton 45 percent in a four-way contest in the poll conducted Thursday through Sunday. The margin is a mirror 48-47 Clinton-Trump split when third-party candidates are asked which major-party candidate they lean toward, a comparison that has grown in importance as support declines steadily for Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein. 
 
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 [Full Post-ABC results] 
 
 Over 1 in 5 likely voters identified in the Post-ABC poll report having already voted (21 percent), while about one-quarter say they plan to vote early or by mail (24 percent,) and a slight majority plan to vote in person on Election Day. The level of early voting so far is roughly in line with expectations, given the 24.7 million early votes tracked so far by the United States Election Project, which amounts to 19 percent of the 129 million ballots cast in 2012. 
 
 Clinton has a modest 54-41 percent edge among early voters in an average of the three most recent tracking poll waves, while Trump leads by a 50-39 percent margin among those looking to vote on Election Day; those who anticipate voting early are more evenly split. Those breakdowns should be treated with caution, given both the sizable 8.5-point margin of sampling error around that result as well as general challenges in tracking attitudes among a rapidly growing population. 
 
 Older Americans have flocked to vote early, with 38 percent of senior likely voters saying they have done so, compared with 18 percent of those ages 40 to 64 and 17 percent of voters younger than that. Women are slightly more apt to report voting early than men (26 vs. 19 percent), as are voters in urban areas (28 percent) compared with suburban and rural voters (19 percent and 22 percent). 
 
 [Graphic: Who different groups are supporting] 
 
 Horse-race breakdown 
 
 The daily tracking poll's latest four-night wave finds voters splitting sharply along traditional political divisions, with Trump's previously lagging support among core Republican groups now nearly matching Clinton's wide support on the left. Trump holds 78 percent support among white evangelical Protestants, 77 percent among conservatives, 68 percent among rural voters and 59 percent among white men. Clinton answers with 81 percent support among liberals, 67 percent of those identifying with no religion, 60 percent of those in urban areas and 72 percent among nonwhites. 
 
 [Clinton leads Trump in Virginia in new Post poll] 
 
 Clinton and Trump receive similar support among fellow partisans, but Trump maintains an 18-point edge among political independents, significantly higher than Republicans have held in recent elections. Looking deeper at that group over a seven-day stretch, 77 percent of independents who say they lean Democratic prefer Clinton while a similar 80 percent who lean Republican favor Trump. But Trump holds a sizable 53-28 percent advantage among voters who say they don't lean toward either party, a group that accounts for about 10 percent of likely voters. 
 
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 This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 27-30, 2016, among a random national sample of 1,773 adults including landline and cellphone respondents. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 points; the error margin is plus or minus three points among the sample of 1,167 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York. ||||| Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation. 
 
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 While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump — a first since May — in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. 
 
 In the latest results, 46 percent of likely voters support Trump, and 45 percent are for Clinton. With the data taken to a decimal place for illustrative purposes, a mere 0.7 of a percentage point divides them. 
 
 Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent. 
 
 See PDF with full results here. 
 
 Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But compared with past elections, it’s low for both of them — 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton. 
 
 Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost 7 points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday. This is possibly an effect of the renewed controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump’s strong enthusiasm has held steady in tracking, which started Oct. 20. 
 
 Close 
 
 The 1 point Clinton-Trump race is well within the survey’s margin of sampling error. Combining the last seven nights — across which results have been very stable — the results flip to 46 percent Clinton, 45 percent Trump, with a 0.4 point gap. Again, it is not a significant difference. 
 
 Either way, the results are exceedingly close. Trump’s 1 point lead is a noteworthy result; he has led Clinton just once before, up 2 points in late May (among registered voters in a two-way test), after he clinched the GOP nomination while Clinton was still in a duel with Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race. 
 
 Although the election is close at this point, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was up 1 versus Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was ahead by 1 against George Bush a week out in 2004. 
 
 Red/Blue 
 
 Another look at the data divides the last seven nights of tracking results into red, blue and toss-up states, as designated by the ABC News Political Unit. The results: 
 
 • In states considered to be strongly for Trump or leaning toward him (with a total of 180 Electoral College votes), he leads Clinton by a broad 60 to 34 percent. 
 
 • In blue states (with 278 electoral votes), Clinton leads 54 to 37 percent. 
 
 • In the five ABC-designated toss-up states (with 80 electoral votes) — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah — voters split 41 percent Clinton to 48 percent Trump. That’s not a significant difference, given the 5.5 point error margin at this sample size. 
 
 Early Birds 
 
 Clinton’s support rests in part on early voting: A fifth of those identified as likely voters (21 percent) say they have already voted. While the sample isn’t large (thus an error margin of +/–7 percentage points), they divide 55 percent for Clinton, 39 for Trump. 
 
 That said, early voting estimates can change, given state rules, turnout and sampling variability. Early voting estimates in the 2012 ABC/Post tracking poll ranged from up 17 for Obama to up 4 for Romney in four-night averages, settling at up 3 for Obama. 
 
 The latest results, while steady for seven nights, reflect a sharp turnaround from a large Clinton lead in the first four nights of tracking, which were a particularly difficult news cycle for Trump. 
 
 Among other factors, there has been consolidation for Trump among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent now back him, up from 80 percent). He has also seen improvement among pure independents (i.e., those who don’t lean toward either party), up from an even split to a large Trump advantage, 25 percent Clinton to 54 percent Trump, across the past seven nights (combined for a larger samples size). Seventeen percent of pure independents pick someone else. 
 
 Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, Trump’s support has gone from 5 to 9 percent — a slight change, but a statistically significant one. Clinton’s support has been essentially steady. 
 
 Party ID 
 
 The race is close even though self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans among likely voters by 10 points, 38 to 28 percent. There are three reasons: 
 
 One, this narrows to a 5 point gap, 48 to 43 percent, when independents who lean toward one party or the other are included. 
 
 The second is Trump’s advantage among pure independents, as noted — even though they account for just 7 percent of likely voters. 
 
 And the third is that Trump wins 9 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, while Clinton is supported by 6 percent of Republicans and those who lean toward the GOP — another slight difference and not statistically significant. 
 
 But in contests this close, small differences add up. 
 
 Vote preference results are essentially identical in 23 likely voter models produced for diagnostic purposes, with turnout estimates ranging from 43 to 81 percent of the voting-age population. Seventeen of the models produce a 46 percent Trump, 45 percent Clinton race, as does the average of all 23. 
 
 Methodology 
 
 This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 27 to 30, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,128 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 38-28-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. 
 
 Questions 5a and 5b were asked Oct. 28 to 30 among 388 and 397 Clinton and Trump supporters, respectively; they both have 5.5 point error margins. 
 
 The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York City, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York City. See details on the survey’s methodology here. ||||| Story highlights Donald Trump has a slim one-point lead, his first time ahead in an ABC/WaPo poll since May 
 
 Hillary Clinton still leads in the CNN Poll of Polls, an average of the five recent national polls 
 
 (CNN) Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in a new national tracking poll out Tuesday morning. 
 
 The latest ABC News/The Washington Post offering showed Trump barely edging Clinton among likely voters, 46%-45%, well within the poll's 3 percentage point margin of error. Support for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, meanwhile has fallen to a new low, according to the poll, plunging to just 3% nationwide. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2%. 
 
 Although Trump's single-point advantage over Clinton is statistically negligible, it is his first lead in an ABC/Post poll since May -- perhaps giving hope to the Republican presidential nominee's supporters, who believe their candidate's prospects were bolstered last week with the revelation that the FBI is reviewing new emails found on the laptop of Anthony Weiner, the former congressman and estranged husband of top Clinton aide Huma Abedin. 
 
 Still, it may be too early to gauge the electoral impact of that development, which broke on Friday. Clinton still leads Trump in the CNN Poll of Polls, an average of the five most recent national phone polls, including Tuesday's ABC/WaPo tracking survey, 46%-42%. 
 
 The latest ABC/Post poll showed a lack of enthusiasm among Clinton supporters. Only 45% of the Democratic nominee's backers say they are very enthusiastic about supporting her, down 7 percentage points since the start of the tracking poll and eight points lower than the share of Trump supporters who say they are very enthusiastic about supporting their candidate. 
 
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– The presidential race looks closer than some would've thought possible less than a month ago. A week from Election Day, an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton nationally among likely voters, but only by 0.7% with a 3-point margin of error. Still, it's Trump's first lead in such a poll since May, reports CNN. Some 38% of 1,128 likely voters polled from Oct. 27-30 identified as Democrat, compared to 28% as Republican and 29% as independent. But the gap lessens to 48% Democrats and 43% Republicans when considering independents who lean one way or the other. When rounded, the figures show Trump with 46% support compared to Clinton at 45%. Gary Johnson is at 3% and Jill Stein at 2%. Voters appear to favor Trump 48% over Clinton's 41% in swing states Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Utah, though that's with a 5.5-point margin of error. Trump also leads among voters who say they're enthusiastic about voting, 53% to Clinton's 45%. Strong enthusiasm for Clinton actually fell during the tracking period beginning Oct. 20—a possible consequence of renewed interest in her emails. Clinton supporters shouldn't freak out, though: Early voters favor Clinton, and a survey of the five most recent national phone polls (including the ABC/Post poll) shows her ahead of Trump 46% to 42%. Meanwhile, ABC notes Mitt Romney led Barack Obama by a point a week before Election Day in 2012. John Kerry likewise led George W. Bush in 2004.