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 Mitt Romney's wins in Michigan and Arizona helped him pick up a big chunk of delegates, but more importantly, it has washed away talk of a Republican party desperate for a "white knight" to jump into the primary. 
 
 Even so, one GOP bigwig finds Romney's narrow Michigan win "unconvincing." Romney, this GOP strategist told ABC News, won "by being totally negative. Where's the hope and optimism? He's becoming a human wrecking ball. A receding tide sinks all boats." 
 
 Moreover, Romney doesn't have an easy road ahead of him this coming week. 
 
 March 3: First stop, the Washington state caucus on Saturday. Romney hasn't had a very good track record when it comes to caucuses - he's won two and lost three. Santorum, of course, has won nothing but caucuses, and recent polling suggests Santorum is leading in the Evergreen State. 
 
 March 6: Super Tuesday: The most recent polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Oklahoma, Georgia and Tennessee. Combined, those states hold 243 delegates. 
 
 Moreover, as we saw tonight in Michigan, and in ABC/Washington Post polling this week very conservative voters are not sold on Romney. 
 
 In Michigan, 30 percent of those who voted in the primary identified themselves as very conservative. Romney lost the very conservative vote to Rick Santorum by 14 points. 
 
 On Super Tuesday, very conservative voters will become a bigger part of the electorate. In 2008, very conservative voters made up 38 percent of GOP primary electorate in Tennessee. They made up 39 percent of the vote in Oklahoma, and 32 percent of the vote in Georgia. 
 
 But, if we've learned anything from this primary campaign, it's that momentum is king. A good election night can move numbers - quickly. 
 
 The first place we'll be looking for signs of "Mitt-mentum" will be in Ohio. The state has a similar make-up to Michigan. There are a smaller percentage of very conservative voters and evangelicals than there are in the southern states. 
 
 The most recent Quinnipiac Poll showed Santorum with a seven point lead in the Buckeye State. But, just a month earlier, Romney had a nine point lead in the state. 
 
 Look for both the Santorum and Romney camps to hunker down in Ohio over the next week. Santorum, the former Pennsylvania Senator who has been touting his blue collar roots, can't afford to lose two Midwestern states. If Romney loses here, talk about his vulnerability will continue as will the hand-wringing by GOP insiders. ||||| As the Republican presidential campaign turns to Super Tuesday this week, one contest looms more super than the rest: Ohio, a state with many of the same economic and electoral dynamics as Michigan but with much more at stake for Republicans. 
 
 Whereas Michigan is usually a hope-to state for Republicans in the general election, Ohio is a must-do. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. Thus, the challenge for the GOP candidates is to win the primary next week without turning off voters who they’ll need to carry the state in the fall. 
 
 After a bruising couple of weeks in Michigan, where the fight between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum focused heavily on the kind of controversial social issues that tend to alienate independent voters, Republican officials are worried about the tenor and message of their campaign. 
 
 “We need to move on to having a nominee, so we can speak with one voice out there and begin drawing that contrast with Obama,” said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who most recently worked for Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), a former presidential contender. 
 
 Instead, what is likely to happen is a week of unrelenting attacks from the candidates and their supporters akin to the one that just played out in Michigan — and Florida, South Carolina and elsewhere before that. If anything, the negativity is likely to increase with the full engagement of former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who was a minimal presence in Michigan. 
 
 Independent groups backing Romney, Santorum and Gingrich are already airing TV ads in the state. Santorum campaigned in Ohio Tuesday and Romney will be in Toledo Wednesday morning for an event, followed by another in Columbus. 
 
 Romney will confront many of the same challenges in Ohio that he faced in Michigan, without the benefit of his hometown connection. 
 
 Like Michigan, Ohio’s economy relies heavily on the auto industry, and Romney’s high-profile opposition of the government bailout of the industry is not likely to be received warmly by many voters. He supported an effort last year by Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) to restrict public unions’ collective-bargaining rights — an effort that was overwhelmingly overturned in the fall by voters in this union-heavy state. And Romney’s courtship of religious voters by supporting, for instance, an antiabortion “personhood initiative,” risks alienating female voters. 
 
 “The number one thing is the auto bailout,” said Eric Kearney, a Democrat from Cincinnati and minority leader in the Ohio Senate. “Ohio is the second-largest auto producer in this country. We rely on that. It’s a substantial portion of our economy. The first thing Mitt Romney says, and he repeats it, is he is against the auto bailout. Those are Ohio jobs he’s talking about that he doesn’t want to retain. I don’t get what his strategy is.” 
 
 Perhaps more than anything else, however, Romney’s difficulty connecting with average Americans may hurt him in a state such as Ohio. Romney acknowledged on Tuesday that his gaffes — including mentioning his wife’s “couple of Cadillacs” — have not been helpful to his cause. Republicans in Ohio agreed. 
 
 “People are like, ‘Yeah, he’s probably going to win, but I really don’t like him, and I’m not going to vote for him,’ ” said a high-ranking Ohio Republican who requested anonymity to speak freely. “That’s the collective zeitgeist.” 
 
 Santorum, too, has built a body of statements and positions that threaten his appeal with moderates and independents. His personal opposition to contraception and recent statements criticizing President John F. Kennedy’s defense of church-state separation go against the views of a majority of voters in virtually all public polling. 
 
 The two leading candidates are approaching Ohio in markedly different ways. Although Santorum on Tuesday backed away from his criticism of Kennedy, he is not shying away from his embrace of culturally conservative stands, including opposing abortion and criticizing the government for curtailing religious freedom. His goal is to present a clear contrast with President Obama and convince voters that this makes him more, not less, electable in the fall. 
 
 Romney, in contrast, is trying to refocus his campaign on the economy, relying heavily on the methods that have served him well in past wins: a well-organized and well-financed ground operation, a heavy emphasis on early-voting recruitment, a growing list of endorsements, including from both establishment and tea-party leaders, and millions of dollars in TV advertisements. 
 
 “We always planned for a potentially long and drawn-out nominating process,” Romney spokesman Ryan Williams said. 
 
 Even in the states where that strategy has worked, however, it has come at a cost. In Florida, for instance, Romney spent millions attacking Gingrich. He won the primary on Jan. 31, but his own popularity declined at the same time. 
 
 The risk of a similar outcome looms large in Ohio. And with each passing contest like it, he has less time to position himself for the general-election contest he hopes to wage against Obama. ||||| By Erin McPike - February 29, 2012 
 
 CINCINNATI -- Some strange conventional wisdom has been floating around in recent days: If Mitt Romney were to win Michigan's primary, he'd almost naturally do the same in Ohio a week later on Super Tuesday. 
 
 Don’t tell that to a Buckeye; they're not so into the Wolverines. 
 
 It's not a particularly plausible argument for several reasons. First, Romney doesn't have the same electoral track record in the two states -- he didn't compete in the 2008 Ohio primary against John McCain because he had dropped out of the race a month before. Second, Romney doesn’t have the kind of personal connections to Ohio he has in Michigan, where he grew up and where his father was governor. There’s also the developing dynamic in this primary season that a win in one state does not translate to momentum in the next set of contests. (That will be tested again following Romney's double-barrel wins in Arizona and Michigan.) 
 
 What may be most important, though, is that Ohio hasn’t seen the kind of campaign action that Michigan did recently. The Romney campaign has been advertising on TV lightly here, but that pales in comparison to the saturation in the early voting states. The super PAC supporting Rick Santorum has put some money into TV spots, but too little to make much of an impact. 
 
 One Columbus-based Republican consultant summed up the state of political activity in Ohio thusly: Santorum has sent out direct mail, Romney has had some town-hall meetings and both Romney and Ron Paul have been doing a fair amount of volunteer phone banking. In general, though, this operative said the race could be described thus far as a “phantom primary.” 
 
 What Romney does have going for him is the largest slate of support from elected officials in the state. He boasts the backing of Sen. Rob Portman, a potential vice presidential contender, and on Wednesday he’ll get the endorsement of state Auditor Dave Yost. 
 
 Romney has had an operation in the state for several months, and his successful campaign team from Florida headed to Ohio after that victory a month ago. Today he’ll hold a rally in Toledo and a town-hall meeting in Columbus, and over the next several days he’ll roll out additional endorsements from local leaders and coalitions. A campaign spokesman said he’ll make several more trips to Ohio before Tuesday. 
 
 Nevertheless, Newt Gingrich and Santorum both have taken turns atop the Ohio polls, but every survey taken in February showed Santorum with a substantial lead. He leads the RealClearPolitics average by 8.3 percentage points -- 34.3 percent to Romney’s 26 percent. 
 
 Santorum also might be the candidate who has something close to a home-state advantage here: He’s from neighboring Pennsylvania, which shares a heavy emphasis on steel manufacturing. And that figures greatly into his economic message. He’ll be back on the ground here before the week is up, but in the meantime, a group of socially conservative, pro-life women leaders who have endorsed him will campaign on his behalf in all of the major cities over the next two days. 
 
 For his part, Gingrich was campaigning in Ohio when Santorum and Romney were focused on Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota several weeks ago. Starting Thursday, he will air a 30-minute energy-focused TV ad each day through Monday on the Ohio News Network. ||||| This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber. 
 
 The G.O.P.’s task will not be easy: the party holds 46 seats in the Senate, and the number will very probably be cut to 45 after a special election in New Jersey later this year. That means that they would need to win a net of six contests from Democrats in order to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s tiebreaking vote. Two years ago at this time, Republicans faced what seemed to be a promising environment and could have won the Senate by gaining a net of three seats from Democrats and winning the presidency. Instead, Mitt Romney lost to President Obama, and the G.O.P. lost a net of two Senate seats. 
 
 But Montana along with West Virginia and South Dakota — two other red states where an incumbent Democrat has retired and where the Democrats have not identified a strong candidate to replace them – gives Republicans a running start. Republicans could then win three more seats from among red states like Louisiana and Arkansas, where vulnerable Democratic incumbents are on the ballot, or they could take aim at two purple states, Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats have retired. More opportunities could also come into play if the national environment becomes more favorable to Republicans (such as because of a further slide in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings). Meanwhile, while Kentucky and Georgia are possibly vulnerable, Republicans have few seats of their own to defend; unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense. 
 
 A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Read more…
– With Arizona and Michigan in the books, the countdown to "Super Tuesday" has begun. But not all of the March 6 states are created equal. Expect the campaigns to set up shop in Ohio, a state without which, the Washington Post points out, no Republican president has ever been elected. Super PACs backing Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich are all already airing ads in the Buckeye State. Santorum visited yesterday, and Romney will hit Toledo and Columbus today. Romney has had a team in Ohio for months, and has the backing of the majority of the state's major politicians, Real Clear Politics reports. But given his blue collar shtick, Santorum can ill afford to lose two Midwestern states in a row, ABC observes, and it doesn't look like he will. A recent University of Cincinnati poll has him 11 points ahead of Romney in the state. That's close to Nate Silver's projections, which currently show Romney behind in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee as well.