Oh my: Ron Paul within one point of Gingrich in Iowa? 
 
 posted at 3:56 pm on December 13, 2011 by Allahpundit 
 
 Hey now. I was writing “Could Ron Paul seriously win Iowa?” posts before writing “Could Ron Paul seriously win Iowa?” posts was cool. 
 
 There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%. Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he’s also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%. Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul’s strength in Iowa and Barack Obama’s in 2008- he’s doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters… 
 
 Simple question: What’s Paul’s ceiling in Iowa? A friend on Twitter was arguing earlier that it’s 20 percent, which is borne out by the polls — so far. If he’s right then Paul can’t win. But … what if Paul’s ceiling is actually 30 percent? Note that his favorables are trending upwards while Newt’s are sinking under the weight of renewed scrutiny of his various conservative heresies. If you’re an Iowan who’s unhappy with the “electable” candidates — Romney for being too opportunistic, Gingrich for flirting too often with activist government, Perry for seeming too darned hapless — then Paul’s an obvious choice for your “none of the above” protest vote. So obvious, in fact, that both Glenn Beck and Joe Scarborough are threatening to back him as a third-party candidate if Gingrich is the nominee. (An interesting footnote in the PPP data: Voters split equally on whether their view of the GOP establishment is favorable or unfavorable, and among the latter group Paul leads by double digits at 34 percent.) If he can pull 10 percent from voters like that on top of the 20 percent who make up his base, then his chances at an upset improve dramatically. And don’t forget, not only is Paul’s base famously enthusiastic and guaranteed to turn out, he’s one of the best organized candidates in Iowa this time. He might be able to get leaners to come out and caucus come rain or shine. Can Gingrich do the same? 
 
 I’ll bet Romney’s kicking himself now for not having abandoned Iowa early on. If he had done that, he could have sent his supporters out to caucus for Paul, thereby detonating Newt’s chances; if he tried that now, having competed in earnest in the state, the headlines would be all about Romney’s shockingly poor finish in Iowa, which would actually help Gingrich in New Hampshire even if he finished second to Paul in the caucuses. (On the other hand, per Rasmussen, Paul’s just four points back of Gingrich for second place in New Hampshire too.) Two exit questions for you, then. One: As chances of a Paul upset grow, will Iowa’s Republican leaders swing behind Newt or Mitt? They want the caucuses to remain relevant to choosing the eventual nominee, and if Paul wins, that’ll be two elections in a row where the Iowa winner realistically had no chance. Two: Could a Paul victory achieve a real “none of the above” outcome for the nomination? A brokered convention is unlikely – but, as Sean Trende explains, not impossible if Paul fares well. 
 
 Caucus states are also concentrated in the Mountain West, where his brand of Republicanism holds greater appeal. They’re also front-loaded, meaning that (a) his supporters will be less likely to have been swayed by the “can’t win” argument and (b) the more “establishment” Republican candidates are likely to split the non-Paul votes. Overall, 486 delegates will be awarded in caucus states. If Paul picks off a sizable number of these delegates, say a quarter of them, and two other GOP candidates battle to a draw, there might not be a nominee by the end of June. This type of fight could carry over to the convention, since Paul is pretty feisty and is probably the least likely candidate out there to be “bought off” with a Cabinet position or speaking slot. If, say, Perry and Gingrich are knotted up with about 1,050 delegates each, and Paul holds the remaining 200 and refuses to budge, you could end up with a deadlocked convention that eventually turns to a dark-horse candidate. 
 
 Ron Paul winning Iowa just might mean the GOP nominating Ryan, Christie, or Daniels. Second look at Ron Paul winning Iowa? ||||| With scant weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, perpetually ignored-by-the-media Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul is making a deadly serious run for the top spot in the first-in-the-nation GOP contest. A little over a week ago, Paul passed Mitt Romney for second place in the state, 7 points behind frontrunner Newt Gingrich. A new poll from Public Policy Polling, however, has the congressman trailing Gingrich by a single point, 22%-21%, with Romney holding onto third with 16%. 
 
 
 
 
 
 While the media has already decided that this is now a two-man race between Gingrich and perpetual poll runner-up Mitt Romney, Ron Paul has emerged as a very real threat in Iowa, and from there, who knows? From PPP: 
 
 There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%. …Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he’s also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%. 
 
 Paul is also within 8 points of the lead in one New Hampshire poll, just 3 points behind Gingrich. 
 
 Gingrich has faced brutal attacks on the issues from Paul that left many observers gasping, plus a vicious ad by a WorldNetDaily contributor that was aimed at social conservatives in Iowa, but which was played and re-played nationally by cable news outlets. 
 
 Unlike Gingrich, Ron Paul has the fundraising and organizational apparatus to take him beyond wins in early states, so a victory in Iowa could very well propel him to a brokered convention, or more. Disaffection with Gingrich and Romney has already led conservative pundit Joe Scarborough to say he would consider voting for Paul as an independent. Whether or not Ron Paul is taken seriously has always hinged on the whims of the mainstream media, but results like these make it increasingly difficult to ignore him. 
 
 Have a tip we should know? tips@mediaite.com ||||| That’s at least what it looks like in the latest survey from Public Policy Polling. The barrage of aired attacks on Newt from all sides seems to be having the desired effect, plummeting his favorability by 19 points in the last week, and Paul, certainly one of the aggressors, is picking up the pieces. Gingrich still leads with 22% of the vote and Romney has held steady in high teens, but Paul has clawed his way up within the margin of error, claiming 21% support among likely Republican caucus goers. And what remains of Gingrich’s lead appears to be soft. Just 54% of his supporters tell PPP they’re certain to vote for him, while 77% and 67% say the same of Paul and Romney respectively. 
 
 This is, of course, good news for Paul, whose third presidential bid has gained more mainstream traction than his previous efforts. But if these numbers bear out in a few more polls, it’s also a godsend to Romney’s campaign, which badly needs Paul and others to split the votes aligned against the former Massachusetts governor and slow Gingrich’s late surge. 
 
 PPP’s poll shouldn’t be entirely surprising–if August belonged to Bachmann, September to Perry, October to Cain and November to Newt, there’s no reason to think another candidate wouldn’t find themselves enjoying a December boomlet. We’re not quite there yet, and Tuesday’s poll could be an outlier. But Gingrich’s lead was always tenuous and it’s not surprising that the absolutely brutal ad campaigns against him have at very least slowed his ascent.
– The first chink in Newt Gingrich's surge? A new Public Policy Polling survey shows that his lead in Iowa has dropped from 9 points to 1 point in a week. And the beneficiary isn't Mitt Romney but Ron Paul. The new figures have Gingrich at 22%, down 5 points, and Paul at 21%, up 3 points. Romney sticks at 16%. What's it all mean? Adam Sorensen, Time: The poll could be a fluke, but "Gingrich’s lead was always tenuous and it’s not surprising that the absolutely brutal ad campaigns against him have at very least slowed his ascent." Ed Morrissey, Hot Air: It might be time to start thinking about a deadlocked convention. "Paul winning Iowa just might mean the GOP nominating Ryan, Christie, or Daniels." Tommy Christopher, Mediaite: "Unlike Gingrich, Ron Paul has the fundraising and organizational apparatus to take him beyond wins in early states, so a victory in Iowa could very well propel him to a brokered convention, or more." The mainstream media doesn't much like Paul's chances, "but results like these make it increasingly difficult to ignore him."