RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE 
 
 By Jonathan Riskind jriskind@mainetoday.com 
 
 MaineToday Media Washington Bureau Chief 
 
 WASHINGTON -- Maine Republican Party Chairman Charlie Webster said Friday that he doesn't know whether Mitt Romney will be declared the winner of the Maine caucuses' GOP presidential straw poll or suffer a setback to Ron Paul. 
 
 Maine GOP Chairman Charlie Webster Staff photo by David Leaming Select images available for purchase in the 
 
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 But Webster said he's pretty sure of two things: the race is close and the winner of the previously low-profile Maine caucuses will get a needed boost. 
 
 "What will happen is that either Paul or Romney will win by 200 votes, in my opinion, one way or the other," Webster said Friday, although he did not know the tally from the caucuses that have been held statewide. 
 
 Webster and independent analysts say Maine won't make or break Romney, who lost the front-runner status he gained with wins in Florida and Nevada by losing Tuesday to Rick Santorum in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. 
 
 But a win by Romney would help change a narrative that his campaign is struggling. Romney visited the state Friday night in a last-ditch effort to win some votes. 
 
 The Maine Republican Party is holding what it is calling a preferance poll announcement tonight in Portland. Many of the state's 16 counties have already caucused and those results will be announced at the event. Counties in the heavily populated southern portion of the state, including York, Cumberland and Androscoggin, are caucusing today. A handful of communities plan caucuses for next Saturday. 
 
 A win by Paul would show that the U.S. House member from Texas can actually come in first in a 2012 GOP contest, something he hasn't done. Paul spent two days in Maine last month, drawing large crowds, and is spending today in Maine, visiting caucus sites in Sanford, Lewiston and New Gloucester and holding a party in Portland. 
 
 "I think it will be important see what (Maine Republicans) think," Webster said. "I do think it is important to Romney and Paul that they do well here." 
 
 Romney easily won the Maine caucuses in 2008 over eventual GOP nominee John McCain and third-place finisher Paul. Romney is a former Massachusetts governor who should do well in Maine, analysts say. 
 
 Maine's nonbinding caucus event today is the first step to select the state's 24 delegates to the Republican National Convention, though three slots go automatically to the Maine GOP chairman and two other party officials. Overall, 1,144 delegates are needed nationally to capture the GOP presidential nomination. 
 
 Santorum and Newt Gingrich haven't campaigned in Maine and aren't thought to be factors in the state's contest. 
 
 Christian Potholm, a government professor at Bowdoin College, said the Romney campaign may feel pressure to win in Maine. But a muddled GOP primary season won't become clearer until the 11-state round of Super Tuesday contests on March 6 and even beyond, he said. 
 
 "Winning in Maine won't do anything to change that dynamic," Potholm said. 
 
 Maine Democrats are reveling in a GOP nominating season that appears likely to stretch a long way, and suggesting that a Romney loss in Maine would be downright embarrassing because he won the state caucuses four years ago with more than 50 percent of the vote. 
 
 "(Romney) needs to at least equal that," said Janet Mills, vice chair of the Maine Democratic Party. "He is coming here with his tail between his legs. 
 
 "Morale-wise and from a momentum perspective, he absolutely needs to win Maine and he needs to win big." 
 
 The Romney campaign says it wants to win in Maine, but discounts the suggestion that any one state is vital. 
 
 "Governor Romney is running a national campaign and competing in nominating contests across the country," Ryan Williams, a Romney campaign spokesman, said Friday. "We hope to do as well as possible on Saturday and look forward to securing the support needed to win the nomination and defeat President Obama in November." 
 
 Jonathan Riskind -- 791-6280 
 
 jriskind@mainetoday.com 
 
 Twitter: Twitter.com/MaineTodayDC ||||| Mitt Romney hoped to avoid a fourth straight election setback Saturday in the GOP presidential nomination race, but feisty Ron Paul could extend that losing streak with a victory in Maine's caucuses. 
 
 Romney, the one-time front-runner, stepped up efforts to court Republicans in recent days, reflecting growing concern about the outcome of what has become a two-man race in Maine. 
 
 Neither Newt Gingrich nor Rick Santorum, who won in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado on Tuesday, is actively competing in Maine, where party officials planned to declare a winner Saturday evening. 
 
 Paul was optimistic as he greeted morning caucus-goers in Sanford, where a few hundred Republicans gathered in a nearly-filled high school gymnasium. 
 
 "I think we have a very good chance," Paul said. Romney will "be better off if he wins it and I'm going to be a lot better off if I win. So this will give me momentum and it will just maintain his. It's a pretty important state as far as I'm concerned." 
 
 Romney wants Maine voters to help in his struggle to convince his party's conservative wing that he should be the candidate they back. The former Massachusetts governor said in a Washington speech Friday that he was "a severely conservative Republican governor." 
 
 He echoed that message in Sanford minutes after Paul left, and later in the day at a crowded Portland caucus. 
 
 "In my home with my mom and dad I learned conservative values," Romney said. "I want to ask you and the people of Maine for your vote. If I get your vote, it'll help me become our nominee. If I become our nominee, I'm going to beat this guy and bring America back." 
 
 Paul, a libertarian-minded Texas congressman, is fighting to prove he's capable of winning at all, particularly in a state where his campaign has focused considerable attention. He has scored a few top three finishes in other early voting states, but his strategy is based on winning some of the smaller caucus contests where his passionate base of support can have an oversized impact. 
 
 Paul suggested his candidacy was at a critical juncture. Asked whether he would stay in the contest until the GOP's national convention in August, he answered: "I'm going to stay in as long as I'm in the race. And right now I'm in the race." 
 
 There is no reliable polling to gauge the state of the Maine election, which drew fewer than 5,500 voters from across the state four years ago. But Romney's recent activities suggest a victory is by no means assured, despite the natural advantages of being a former New England governor competing in a state he won with more than 50 percent of the vote four years ago. 
 
 He changed his schedule Friday night to add personal appearances at two caucuses Saturday; he had planned to take the day off. 
 
 Romney faced a rowdy crowd at a town hall-style meeting in Portland Friday night, where one heckler was removed by police. Others asked pointed questions about his off-shore bank accounts, feelings about the nation's poor, and his continued support for the natural gas extraction process known as fracking. 
 
 On Saturday morning, he suggested that he's the only one in the race who isn't a Washington insider. 
 
 "I have never spent a day in Washington working," Romney said. "I expect to go there, get it fixed, and then go home. I'm not going to stay in Washington." 
 
 Some crowd members chanted, "Ron Paul," as Romney left the crowded gymnasium. 
 
 Maine's nonbinding presidential straw poll, which began Feb. 4, has drawn virtually none of the hype surrounding recent elections in Florida and Nevada, where candidates poured millions of dollars into television and radio advertising. 
 
 Romney and his allies spent a combined $15.9 million in Florida. But his campaign had placed only a small cable television ad buy airing Friday and Saturday, at a cost of several thousand dollars. But he sent surrogates to the state in recent days and hosted a telephone town hall in addition to Friday's campaign stop. 
 
 Maine's caucuses are spread over a week. 
 
 The state party will announce a winner Saturday evening, although a few contests will be held Sunday. Washington County, in the state's far eastern region, postponed its caucuses until Feb. 18 because of a snow storm, disappointing some participants. 
 
 Helen Saccone, who's from Lubec, said she understands that weather could create problems, but that those who wanted to caucus should have had the chance. "It's Maine. Life goes on when it snows in Maine," she said. 
 
 The rural region is likely stronger territory for Paul, who has been more active than Romney in the state. 
 
 Paul did reasonably well in Maine four years ago, earning more than 18 percent of the vote, and his support has grown since then in a state whose electorate isn't afraid to support candidates outside the mainstream. 
 
 The tea party, hardly a Romney ally, has exerted significant influence, taking over the GOP platform and helping to elect Gov. Paul LePage. 
 
 "Paul needs to show he can win somewhere," GOP strategist Phil Musser said. "My sense is a win in Maine for Romney would be nice. But to be honest, Ron Paul is camped out up there and he needs to win one." 
 
 The timing of the contest also raises the stakes. 
 
 The narrative coming out of Maine will likely reverberate in the political echo chamber for weeks, given there isn't another election until Arizona and Michigan host their contests Feb. 28. Romney hopes that narrative will be more positive than it has been over the last week, arguably his worst of the year.
– The GOP chairman in Maine thinks tonight's results from a straw poll linked to caucuses will be close—as in fewer than 200 votes separating Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, reports the Kennebec Journal. He's just not predicting which candidate will finish on top. It's a nonbinding poll, meaning no delegates will be awarded, but both Romney and Paul are in the state to rally supporters. "I think we have a very good chance," said Paul today at a caucus in Sanford, according to AP. Romney will "be better off if he wins it and I'm going to be a lot better off if I win. So this will give me momentum and it will just maintain his. It's a pretty important state as far as I'm concerned." Romney, meanwhile, played himself up as a conservative, as he did yesterday at CPAC. "In my home with my mom and dad I learned conservative values," he said. "I want to ask you and the people of Maine for your vote." Neither Newt Gingrich nor Rick Santorum is competing in the state.