The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing. 
 
 Romney's favorables are above Obama's now. Yes, you read that right. Romney's favorables are higher than Obama's right now. That gender gap that was Obama's firewall? Over in one night: 
 
 Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters. 
 
 Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama left the stage that night, he was feeling good. That's terrifying. On every single issue, Obama has instantly plummeted into near-oblivion. He still has some personal advantages over Romney - even though they are all much diminished. Obama still has an edge on Medicare, scores much higher on relating to ordinary people, is ahead on foreign policy, and on being moderate, consistent and honest (only 14 percent of swing voters believe Romney is honest). But on the core issues of the economy and the deficit, Romney is now kicking the president's ass: 
 
 By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.... Romney has gained ground on several of these measures since earlier in the campaign. Most notably, Obama and Romney now run even (44% each) in terms of which candidate is the stronger leader. Obama held a 13-point advantage on this a month ago. And Obama’s 14-point edge as the more honest and truthful candidate has narrowed to just five points. In June, Obama held a 17-point lead as the candidate voters thought was more willing to work with leaders from the other party. Today, the candidates run about even on this (45% say Obama, 42% Romney). 
 
 Lies work when they are unrebutted live on stage. And momentum counts at this point in the election. 
 
 Now look at Pew's question as to who would help the middle class the most: 
 
 Look: I'm trying to rally some morale, but I've never seen a candidate this late in the game, so far ahead, just throw in the towel in the way Obama did last week - throw away almost every single advantage he had with voters and manage to enable his opponent to seem as if he cares about the middle class as much as Obama does. How do you erase that imprinted first image from public consciousness: a president incapable of making a single argument or even a halfway decent closing statement? And after Romney's convincing Etch-A-Sketch, convincing because Obama was incapable of exposing it, Romney is now the centrist candidate, even as he is running to head up the most radical party in the modern era. 
 
 How can Obama come back? By ensuring people know that Romney was and is a shameless liar and opportunist? That doesn't work for a sitting president. He always needed a clear positive proposal - tax reform, a Grand Bargain on S-B lines - as well as a sterling defense of his admirable record. Bill Clinton did the former for him. Everyone imaginable did what they could for him. And his response? Well, let's look back a bit: 
 
 With President Obama holed up in a Nevada resort for debate practice, things can get pretty boring on the White House beat right now. Pretty boring for Obama too, apparently. "Basically they're keeping me indoors all the time," Obama told a supporter on the phone during a visit to a Las Vegas area field office. "It's a drag," he added. "They're making me do my homework." 
 
 Too arrogant to take a core campaign responsibility seriously. Too arrogant to give his supporters what they deserve. If he now came out and said he supports Simpson-Bowles in its entirety, it would look desperate, but now that Romney has junked every proposal he ever told his base, and we're in mid-October, it's Obama's only chance on the economy. 
 
 Or maybe, just maybe, Obama can regain our trust and confidence somehow in the next debate. Maybe he can begin to give us a positive vision of what he wants to do (amazing that it's October and some of us are still trying to help him, but he cannot). Maybe if Romney can turn this whole campaign around in 90 minutes, Obama can now do the same. But I doubt it. A sitting president does not recover from being obliterated on substance, style and likability in the first debate and get much of a chance to come back. He has, at a critical moment, deeply depressed his base and his supporters and independents are flocking to Romney in droves. 
 
 I've never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before. Gore was better in his first debate - and he threw a solid lead into the trash that night. Even Bush was better in 2004 than Obama last week. Even Reagan's meandering mess in 1984 was better - and he had approaching Alzheimer's to blame. 
 
 I'm trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it's hard to see how a president and his party recover. I'm not giving up. If the lies and propaganda of the last four years work even after Obama had managed to fight back solidly against them to get a clear and solid lead in critical states, then reality-based government is over in this country again. We're back to Bush-Cheney, but more extreme. We have to find a way to avoid that. Much, much more than Obama's vanity is at stake. 
 
 (Photo: Obama as he imploded, by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images.) ||||| Pew poll: Romney erases eight-point deficit, now leads by four among likely voters 
 
 posted at 4:53 pm on October 8, 2012 by Allahpundit 
 
 From a 51/43 lead for O last month to a 49/45 lead for Mitt now. Remember when the media said the debates won’t matter? 
 
 Most exciting poll of the last year? Or most exciting poll of the last four years? 
 
 Romney now ties Obama in being regarded as a strong leader and runs virtually even with the president in willingness to work with leaders of the other party. And by a 47% to 40% margin, voters pick Romney as the candidate who has new ideas… Romney has made progress on the issues. He and Obama now run about even on dealing with health care, Medicare, foreign policy and taxes. Obama led on most of these issues by significant margins in September. Romney also holds a significant 49% to 41% advantage on improving the job situation, despite the fact that most of the interviewing was conducted after the October jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 8%… By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin. 
 
 We’ve come a long, long way when the avatar of Hopenchange is a distant second on the question of which candidate represents “new ideas.” The polling on jobs is significant too, not only on its own terms but because some of this data was compiled over the weekend, after the news about Friday’s “good” unemployment numbers broke. In fact, among swing voters, 54 percent now say they agree with the statement “Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around” versus just 39 percent who disagree. If O can’t put a dent in that this month, he’s in trouble, especially since those numbers partly reflect a “good” jobs report. 
 
 Some of Mitt’s improvement here is mind-boggling. Note the amazing shift in women and voters aged 18-49, in particular: 
 
 Romney’s favorable rating is now at 50 percent, up five points since last month and one point higher than the guy who’s banking on his alleged likability gap to push him over the edge in a close race. In fact, Mitt rates higher than O even though swing voters are far more likely to say that Obama “connects well with ordinary Americans.” Evidently, Romney cut so impressive a figure at the debate that voters like him slightly more than Obama notwithstanding the fabled “who’d you rather have a beer with?” test. 
 
 The one caveat here is the sample. Among registered voters, it’s 34.7R/34D/31.3I; among likelies, it’s probably a few points more Republican than that. Romney’s pollster and Scott Rasmussen have each said they’re expecting a sample of D+3 or so on election day, so this is a rare poll that’s actually a bit redder than it should be — although even that’s a testament to Romney’s debate performance. Party ID tends to shift a bit as each side builds momentum; that’s why the samples after the Democratic convention were a little bluer than usual. What’s happening here, I think, is that some chunk of the audience that watched the debate was sufficiently impressed by Mitt that they’re now identifying as Republican this week. If Ryan does well on Thursday and Romney follows through in his last two debates, maybe that identification will solidify and we’ll get a redder turnout on November 6 than even Team Mitt is expecting. At the very least, perennial Republicans are so energized by Romney’s ass-kicking that they may show up in even greater numbers than expected. Check out the fundraising haul Mitt saw the first 48 hours after the Denver debacle. Good lord. 
 
 Update: With today’s Politico poll showing Obama up one and the race tied in both Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s trackers, O’s lead in the poll of polls is down to just half a point. 
 
 Related Posts: ||||| Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead 
 
 GOP Challenger Viewed as Candidate with New Ideas 
 
 Overview 
 
 2012 Election Voter Preference Trends Track voter preferences for Obama vs. Romney overall and by demographic group among registered voters. 
 
 Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit. 
 
 Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing. 
 
 In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month. 
 
 The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama. 
 
 More generally, the poll finds Romney’s supporters far more engaged in the campaign than they were in September. Fully 82% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, up from 73% in September. The new survey finds that Romney supporters hold a 15-point advantage over Obama backers on this key engagement measure. Supporters on both sides were about even in September. 
 
 Coming out of the debate, Mitt Romney’s personal image has improved. His favorable rating has hit 50% among registered voters for the first time in Pew Research Center surveys and has risen five points since September. At the same time, Obama’s personal favorability rating has fallen from 55% to 49%. 
 
 In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters. 
 
 Views of Candidates’ Traits, Issue Strengths 
 
 Romney now ties Obama in being regarded as a strong leader and runs virtually even with the president in willingness to work with leaders of the other party. And by a 47% to 40% margin, voters pick Romney as the candidate who has new ideas. 
 
 Conversely, Obama continues hold leads as the candidate who connects well with ordinary people and takes consistent positions on issues. And Obama leads by 10 points (49% to 39%) as the candidate who takes more moderate positions on issues. 
 
 Romney has gained ground on several of these measures since earlier in the campaign. Most notably, Obama and Romney now run even (44% each) in terms of which candidate is the stronger leader. Obama held a 13-point advantage on this a month ago. And Obama’s 14-point edge as the more honest and truthful candidate has narrowed to just five points. 
 
 In June, Obama held a 17-point lead as the candidate voters thought was more willing to work with leaders from the other party. Today, the candidates run about even on this (45% say Obama, 42% Romney). 
 
 Similarly, Romney has made progress on the issues. He and Obama now run about even on dealing with health care, Medicare, foreign policy and taxes. Obama led on most of these issues by significant margins in September. Romney also holds a significant 49% to 41% advantage on improving the job situation, despite the fact that most of the interviewing was conducted after the October jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 8%. 
 
 Romney also has once again opened a double-digit advantage as the candidate who can deal with the budget deficit (51% vs. 36%). Romney led by 14 points on the budget deficit in July, but had lost that advantage last month. 
 
 Swing voters express varying views of the candidates’ strengths. Some 18% of registered voters are swing voters in the latest survey, meaning they are either undecided, only lean toward one of the candidates, or favor a candidate but say there is still a chance they will change their mind. A month ago, 22% of registered voters fell in this category. 
 
 By a 69% to 7% margin, swing voters say Obama is the candidate who connects will with ordinary Americans. Swing voters also tend to rate Obama as the more consistent, honest and moderate candidate, and as a strong leader. Swing voters also favor Obama on the issues of health care, Medicare and foreign policy. 
 
 But Romney continues to hold a decided edge over Obama on jobs and the budget deficit. By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin. 
 
 Obama, Romney Now Seen as Equally Likely to Help the Middle Class 
 
 A substantial majority of voters continue to say that Mitt Romney’s policies would help the wealthy, but he has made gains since the summer in the perception that his policies as president would help the much-discussed middle class. In July, just 41% thought Romney’s policies would help the middle class. This has risen to 49% in the current poll; a comparable percentage of voters (50%) say that Obama’s policies would help the middle class. 
 
 Three-quarters of voters say Romney’s policies would benefit the wealthy (75%), basically unchanged from July (74%). Far fewer (31%) see Obama’s policies benefiting the wealthy. Conversely, two-thirds (66%) see Obama’s policies as likely to benefit the poor, compared with 39% who say the same about Romney’s policies. 
 
 Romney’s gains on the question of how his policies would affect the middle class have come largely among upper-income voters. Among voters with incomes of $150,000 or more, the percentage saying Romney’s policies would help the middle class rose from 47% in July to 68% now. Among voters in households with incomes between $75,000 and $150,000, the increase was 10 points (from 44% to 54%). Voters in lower-income households have not changed their view of whether Romney would help the middle class, and those with household incomes under $30,000 continue to see Obama as doing more for the middle class. 
 
 Romney’s Image Improves, Obama’s Dips 
 
 The edge in favorability ratings that Barack Obama had enjoyed throughout the campaign has now been erased, as voters’ impressions of Romney have continued to improve while Obama’s ratings have returned to levels seen earlier in the summer. Currently, voters are about evenly divided in their overall opinions of both Obama (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable) and Romney (50% favorable, 46% unfavorable). 
 
 While shifts are evident across many demographic groups, there has been a notable change among women voters: In September, just 42% viewed Romney favorably, while 60% had positive impressions of Obama. Today, about half view each of the candidates favorably (51% Obama, 48% Romney). 
 
 Romney also has gained ground with younger voters. Today, 51% of those under 50 have positive impressions of the GOP candidate, up from 43% in September. Mirroring Romney’s improvement among these younger voters is an erosion in Obama’s ratings among this group: 49% of 18-49-year-old voters now view him favorably, down 10 points from September. 
 
 Views of Candidate Criticisms 
 
 While Romney’s personal image and standing in the horserace have improved markedly, two criticisms of the candidate register widely with voters – especially swing voters. 
 
 About six-in-ten voters (62%) agree with the statement that “Romney is promising more than he can deliver,” while 35% disagree. Among swing voters, fully 75% agree, which is closer to the views of certain Obama voters (89% agree) than certain Romney voters (30% agree). 
 
 Just more than half of voters (53%) also agree that “It’s hard to know what Romney really stands for.” This includes two thirds (66%) of swing voters, 86% of certain Obama voters and just 16% of certain Romney voters. 
 
 Criticism of Obama centers on his ability to improve the economy. Overall, 54% agree that “Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around”; 44% disagree with this statement. Romney voters are nearly unanimous in their agreement with this criticism (94%), while only 11% of Obama voters share this view. By a 54% to 39% margin, somewhat more swing voters agree than disagree that Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around. 
 
 Voters are divided in their reactions to the statement: “Obama thinks government is the solution to every problem” – 46% agree with it, while 51% disagree. The balance of opinion among swing voters mirrors that of voters overall (46% agree, 51% disagree), while Obama voters (78% disagree) and Romney voters (75% agree) hold opposing views. 
 
 Asked to describe their greater concern about each of the candidates, more swing voters say they disagree with Obama on issues than distrust him personally (58% vs. 21%). By comparison, roughly as many swing voters say their concern with Romney is his position on issues (44%) as say they don’t trust him personally (36%). 
 
 Shifting Horserace 
 
 Since September, Mitt Romney has made gains among women and younger voters, and has expanded his advantage among whites without a college degree. In the current poll, women likely voters are evenly divided between the candidates (47% each), while men support Romney by a 51%-43% margin. Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points among women, and trailed among men by only two points. 
 
 Similarly, Obama held a solid 56%-39% lead among likely voters under 50 last month. In the current poll, Obama runs even with Romney among voters in this age group (46% Obama, 49% Romney). 
 
 Romney picked up seven points among white voters over the past month (from 51% in September to 58% now), while the horse race is unchanged among black voters. Obama’s earlier edge among college graduates (53%-42% in September) is now gone (48% Obama, 47% Romney). And Romney picked up nine points among voters with family incomes of $75,000 or more. 
 
 Obama trailed Romney last month among whites who don’t have a college degree, but he has fallen further behind in the current poll. Romney led Obama 53%-40% among this group in September but now holds a much larger 28-point lead (61%-33%). 
 
 Debate Reactions 
 
 A substantial majority of voters (69%) say they watched at least some part of last week’s presidential debate and by a more than three-to-one margin (72%-20%), voters who watched say that Romney did a better job than Obama. Romney’s performance exceeded voters’ expectations. Heading into the debate, about half said that Obama (51%) would do a better job, while only 29% said Romney would win. Republican and Democratic voters were about equally likely to have watched the debate. 
 
 The vast majority of Republican voters who watched the debate (95%) say that Romney did the better job, and many Democratic voters agree. Democrats are split in their assessment of who did better: 45% say Romney, 44% Obama. 
 
 Among independent voters, Romney was the clear winner (78% vs. 14%). And views of swing voters mirror those of independents: 70% say Romney won, 14% Obama. 
 
 Nearly two-thirds of voters who watched the debate say it was mostly informative (64%) compared with mostly confusing (26%). Republican voters overwhelmingly found the debate mostly informative (83%); only 11% say the debate was mostly confusing. By contrast, about as many Democratic voters say the debate was confusing (41%) as say it was informative (47%).
– President Obama may have thrown away the whole election with his woeful performance in last week's debate, writes Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Beast. The latest Pew poll numbers show that Obama's lead has been eradicated, with Romney now enjoying a 4-point lead after a 12-point swing. Romney is now ahead in favorability and is even with Obama among women voters after a staggering 18-point shift. "And we are told that when Obama left the stage that night, he was feeling good," Sullivan writes. "That's terrifying. On every single issue, Obama has instantly plummeted into near-oblivion." "I've never seen a candidate this late in the game, so far ahead, just throw in the towel in the way Obama did last week—throw away almost every single advantage he had with voters and manage to enable his opponent to seem as if he cares about the middle class as much as Obama does," writes Sullivan, who doubts the president will be able to recover. Sullivan is dismayed by the Pew poll, but conservative blogger Allahpundit calls it "the most exciting poll of the last four years." The numbers suggest that more voters have started identifying as GOPers after the debate, and "perennial Republicans are so energized by Romney’s ass-kicking that they may show up in even greater numbers than expected," he writes at Hot Air.