Industrial consumers would have been the first to feel the effects of shortages as they do not enjoy a protected status (as opposed to households and heat generation companies).\r \r In the period from October 2014 to March 2015, Ukrainian industry consumed 8.7 billion cubic metres of gas, while total imports for the same period amounted to 9.1 billion cubic metres.\r \r With imports cut off and with the resulting shortages, the industry would not have consumed these 8.7 billion cubic metres of gas. Enterprises would most likely have had to cease production, being unable to quickly switch to substitute energy sources.\r \r According to our estimates, the negative effect caused by production shutdowns could have amounted to almost 6 percent of GDP.\r \r Additionally, a significant number of industrial gas consumers (including chemical plants) are export-oriented. Suspending production would have caused them to lose their foreign currency revenues. A drop in this kind of revenue would have led to a steeper devaluation of the hryvnia in early 2015.\r \r This does not even take into account the shock effects of the possible humanitarian crisis and heightened political risks on the Ukrainian economy.\r \r \r \r *The feature series "Naftogaz Against Gazprom" is running in partnership with Yuriy Vitrenko, Executive Director of Naftogaz Group. Opinions expressed in these features do not necessarily reflect the views of Naftogaz Group or NV editorial team.