We are seeing many hurdles in the industry which we need to collaboratively overcome in order to move from prototype to mass market models. The most obvious being cost. A recent report estimated that in 2020 a Level 4 or Level 5 car would cost an extra $75,000 to $100,000 more than the price of an average premium car, and we believe that estimate is conservative just based on the number of sensors and compute needed to achieve full autonomy. This means that the only business ventures like ride-hailing services will be able to justify the high cost by the appropriate return on a driverless 23/7 robotaxi.
Safety is also a big challenge as AV practitioners are often concerned that the software available is not behaving acceptably in universal situations. When we increase autonomy in a car, we are essentially replacing the safe decision making of a human driver with a complex computer system, comprising many diverse compute elements. The right software is incredibly important for the car to react perfectly in any environment, whilst it also needs to ensure the vehicle systems are safe from cyberattacks.
Even if automotive firms get the technology right, today’s industry certification standards and governmental regulatory frameworks don’t address AVs. Automotive industry executives must accelerate the development of these new standards to ensure that once AVs meet the right criteria.
The initial deployments of autonomous vehicles will have a very specific operational design domain (ODD), where the vehicle will only operate in certain geo-fenced areas, in certain weather conditions, and at certain speeds. This is not appropriate for a consumer-based car, as we don’t want to be limited in where we travel and use our car, and we are already seeing how humans abuse some of the new Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) features that are now available in certain premium vehicles, leading to potential safety concerns.
As part of leaving the comfort of a specific ODD, extra information will be required to augment the traditional sensors, such as high precision GNSS signals with centimetre level accuracy and HD maps with highly accurate environmental information, so when there are poor visibility conditions for the AV’s cameras, such as snow or no road markings, the car will still be able to drive in autonomous mode.