Although it provided a false positive in the mid-1960s, the 10-year to 2-year Treasury spread has long been considered helpful as a recession indicator. In 1998, this spread briefly inverted after the Russian debt default. Quick interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve helped avoid a U.S. recession. In 2006, the spread inverted for much of the year. Long-term Treasury bonds went on to outperform stocks during 2007. The Great Recession began in December 2007. On Aug. 28, 2019, the 10-year/2-year spread briefly went negative. The U.S. economy suffered a two-month recession in February and March 2020 amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. An inverted yield curve has often preceded recessions in recent decades. However, it does not cause them. Instead, bond prices reflect investors' expectations that longer-term yields will decline in anticipation of a recession.