Monthly economic reports give investors clues about the strength of the manufacturing sector. One of the most closely watched reports is the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, this is known as the purchasing managers’ index (PMI). This is a monthly forecast of manufacturing sentiment based on a survey of purchasing managers at over 300 companies. A related survey is the S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI.
Both reports give investors a sense of the economy’s direction. A reading above 50 generally signals that the economy is expanding. A number below 50 signals an economy that’s contracting. However, there are a couple of things that investors need to consider when assigning significance to this monthly reading
Look for Context - It’s always important to look at the reading in context with prior numbers. This is because these surveys are reporting on ordering activity that’s already taken place.
That makes these reports lagging indicators, meaning they give investors information about what’s already happened in the economy. So if the index shows a month-over-month decline it may not be showing up in the broader economy. The opposite is also true. If the index shows a month-over-month gain, it may not be reflected in the prices that consumers pay.
However, the stock market is always forward-looking. So lagging indicators such as manufacturing data can help confirm trends in the economy.
Look for Correlation - Another way to make sense of the monthly manufacturing data is to ensure it correlates with other economic reports. For example, if the Producers’ Price Index (PPI) is climbing you would expect manufacturing activity to slow down.
That’s because if it costs businesses more to get their raw materials, it will be more expensive for them to manufacture their goods. Although they will try to pass this cost along their supply chain to the end consumer, ultimately they may have to cut their output if consumer demand drops.
On the other hand, if manufacturing output remain steady or growing even in the face of rising producer costs, it can signal that consumer demand remains strong even as they are facing higher prices.