Swap spreads for most securities vs. Treasuries tend to diminish as interest rates decline, but the recent dip of the two-year spread into negative territory has been unprecedented. A combination of a widening U.S. fiscal deficit and central bank balance sheet adjustment is unleashing a flood of U.S. Treasuries onto the market. And a normalization of the spread on 10-year swaps should be taken as a signal for a resumption of the long-standing bull stock market trend.