An earnings surprise occurs when a company's actual earnings significantly differs from analysts' consensus earnings estimates. If the surprise is positive, meaning the final figure is higher than expected, the stock price typically rises as the market reacts to the company's better-than-anticipated financial health. Conversely, a negative surprise, or a “miss” as they are referred to, often leads to a stock price decline. It’s important to note that surprises and misses don’t always result in positive or negative outcomes.