Say you’ve placed a $100 futures bet on the Chiefs at +600 to win the Super Bowl during the regular season. Fast forward to February, prior to the Super Bowl that they’re now playing in where they’re -150 favorites against the Buccaneers, which are listed at +130.
If the Chiefs win the title, you’re up $600. Otherwise, you lose $100.
You have two options—either you do nothing and let your original bet play out, or you hedge it by taking the Buccaneers to win on the moneyline (or with the spread since they’re underdogs).
If you decide to protect your initial pick and bet on the Buccaneers to win, the hedge amount that would maximize your guaranteed profit would be $280 (as per our hedging calculator).
In this scenario, the total bet amount would be $380 ($100 on the initial bet + $280 on the hedge bet). If the Buccaneers win, you will net a $320 profit ($700 – $380). If the Chiefs prevail, you’ll win the same $320 ($700 – $380).
You also have the option of hedging a lesser amount on the Bucs—say $150—if you still think the Chiefs will win. In this case, you would win $450 if the Chiefs win ($700 payout – $250 wagered) and $125 if the Bucs win ($375 payout – $250 wagered).