This is a scenario the government actively tried to avoid. The concern over possible skyrocketing costs of R22 was the main reason behind the government mandated gradual phaseout. The government and industry officials had learned from a similar switch of R12 to R22 in 1995. During that switch, the government did not do a phase out and the price of R12 did shoot astronomically higher. The government learned from their mistakes and made this most recent phaseout gradual. So far it is working. We have not seen wide fluctuations in the cost of R22. To this point we have not increased our pricing from two years ago due to the stable cost of the refrigerant. Having said that, no one can completely control the market and pricing can swing dramatically and did during the beginning of the phase out in 2013. We believe most of that was due to speculation of what was coming that didn’t end up turning into reality as the years progressed.
Ultimately you have to make a decision on whether the cost of the repair to your older R22 system Vs the replacement to a newer unit with the new R410a refrigerant is best for you. We always ask a customer to consider the age of the unit (15 years is a good life for a unit in the desert), the cost of the repair, and their long term goals for the property (are they going to keep it one year or 10 years).