Iu2019m going to ignore the nukes here because currently the US guarantees nuclear defense of South Korea in exchange for SK not developing their own nukes. So itu2019s a little unfair to take the US nuclear weapons off the table and leave SK naked to a nuclear attack. They have the capability to develop their own if they chose to pursue that path.The downside for SK is their largest and most important city is within reach of NKu2019s rather large supply of artillery pieces. Thereu2019s no getting around this reality, SK has a big jewel thatu2019s going to get smashed in a conventional war between north and south Korea. North Korea conversely is in such bad shape in terms of infrastructure and economy that it doesnu2019t have many targets worth destroying.This has global ramifications since SK is a surprisingly integral part of the world economy. Samsung for instance is based in SK not far from Seoul. The world economy would take a big hit if the Korean war was revisited (which is probably why the US would NEVER remain hands off in such an instance) .Additionally NK has an army that is disproportionately large for a small poor country. Quantity has a quality all itu2019s own.The downside for NK is basically everything else. South Korea enjoys a massive technological advantage and this is going to translate to massive casualties for the NK military. Their budget is about 1/3 of South Koreau2019s 10B vs 30B (even though NK spends about 25% of GDP on the military and SK spends about 2.5%) and the reality is when you spend more money on the military you get something for that money. If the average thing purchased by the military lasts for 10-20 years SK has accumulated possibly 200B more intrinsic value in their military than the north. Thatu2019s a big gap.The north has a lot of artillery but in 2022 trying to assault modern forces in old tanks when you donu2019t have control of the skies (SKu2019s air force would demolish NKu2019s) is close to suicidal. The artillery weapons being used to attack Seoul/South Korea would be a primary early target for the attack aircraft of the the south. I would not want to be among those gun crews.Itu2019s impossible conceive an outcome that doesnu2019t include the north taking horrific casualties but the economic costs for the south would be massive and civilians loses before Seoul could be evacuated would be massive.The south would win militarily but both sides would ultimately lose.