The problem with blackouts is that they’re unpredictable. If the public utility commission in each region could schedule rolling blackouts a year in advance, then we’d have less to worry about. We could simply mark our calendars and plan ahead. Since blackouts are hard to predict, we have to look at other risk factors instead. For example, heat waves, wildfires, and other extreme weather events tend to result in increased electricity demand and impacts on grid reliability. So while we can say with a high degree of certainty that rolling blackouts will happen somewhere in 2022-2023, we can’t tell you exactly when or where.