The Covid-19 crisis provides some leeway for policy support to absorb the negative impact of Brexit, but we expect GDP to remain -2% below pre-crisis levels at end-2022. We expect additional spending of around GBP100bn (or 5% of GDP) on (i) infrastructure at the border and (ii) a VAT cut to limit the loss of purchasing power and the rise in inflation starting in H2 2021. However, the renewed strict lockdown until mid-February is expected to keep the UK in recession in Q1 (-5.5% q/q) as the closure of schools for six weeks will cut GDP growth by more than -3pp, while the closure of non-essential shops and the hospitality sector could cost -2.6pp. Hence, we keep our below consensus forecast of +2.5% for GDP growth in 2021, followed by more than +7.0% in 2022.