A 200-day moving average (200 DMA) a popular price trend indicator. It is an average of the last 200 days of the closing price of a security. Price below 200 DMA is called bearish sentiment as it implies investors have shied away from buying at prices below the last 200-day average price, even if it was a bargain w.r.t. last 200-day average price.
Market Timing Portfolio 1 uses this metric to decide whether it must be invested in equity or not. If the price is above 200 DMA, invest in equity (we used Nifty 50 Index as no index fund was available); if the price below 200 DMA, invest in a liquid fund (we used JM Liquid Fund; oldest liquid fund available).
Market Timing Portfolio 1 fails to beat the Long Term Portfolio. Rs.100 invested in Market Timing Portfolio 1 became 1,592 (13.4% CAGR) over period of 22 years versus 1,636 (13.5% CAGR) in Long Term Portfolio.
It may appear that Market Timing Portfolio 1 has beaten Long Term Portfolio in the interim, do note these numbers are before taxes and brokerages. The outcome will be different after considering leakages.