The probability of an option strategy paying off relies on the movement of the underlying stock and is thus hard to predict. However, for certain types of movements, we know mathematically which option strategies lead to the highest likelihood of profitability. For example, if you expect a stock to trend sideways or move up (read: not fall), writing covered calls with the call's strike price lower than the stock's price almost always produces a gain, though this gain comes at the expense of capping your upside profit potential and with downside risk equal to holding long stock. Other strategies, such as the complex "ladder" strategies produce the highest probability of profit for directional positions. Ultimately, for most investors, these probability calculations matter less than the risk-hedging that conservative option strategies bring to the table. Investors just getting started with options in the stock market should take it slow, starting with some of the simple option strategies outlined above.