The Belarusian army is not particularly well-staffed and has not taken part in any military action since its independence at the end of the Cold War. Even if it fails to capture Kyiv or other major cities, its presence in the conflict would force some of the Ukrainian troops needed in the south and east of the country to redeploy. Belarus’ firepower could also deliver heavy blows to civilians and critical infrastructure. The risk of an attack on Ukraine will remain for at least the next three months. The Minsk-based newspaper Vot Tak writes that the strength of the Belarusian army is about 65,000 people, of whom only 45,000 are servicemen, and the remaining 20,000 are civilian personnel. We can add 12,000 soldiers of the Internal Troops to this number. It's important to note that the internal troops are loyal to Lukashenko, and were involved in dispersing rallies in 2020 after the longstanding president rigged the results of the national election. These are the same troops that brutally dispersed peaceful, unarmed protesters. Hundreds of people were thrown into police vans, beaten, and raped. Lukashenko's senior officers are also loyal, built on a Soviet mentality and are largely committed to the idea of unification of the former Soviet republics. Vot Tak writes that during the 28 years of his rule, Lukashenko built up an array of armed forces and intelligence operations of the country as a separate caste. During the 2020 suppression of civil protests, not only the ex KGB special forces, riot police, and Interior Ministry troops, but also separate airborne assault brigades showed their loyalty to the regime and cruelty to their own people in full measure. At the same time, the Belarusian army does not have many armored vehicles: several hundred T-72 tanks of various modifications, of which only 20 are well equipped and modern. There are 30 MiG-29 fighters and 22 Su-25 attack aircraft, four Su-30SMs, and another 20 Su-27 fighters in storage and unlikely to be combat-ready at the moment.