One can calculate when the lake would be certain to erupt simply, by following the trends. But the trend is changeable. We can even reverse the trend by our actions. Changes in nature can also vary the trend. Nature governs new gas formation; i.e. how fast or slow is like growing a crop. u003cbr/u003eAlgal growth in the shallow waters depends on nutrients and oxygen. Wind and rain govern oxygen levels, with seasonal variation. But little -used agricultural fertilizers partly govern nutrient levels. Even more impactful is gas extraction bringing up deep water. It is N and P-rich, depositing it in the Biozone above 60m. Therefore algal growth rates can double or more.