We are still a long way from achieving fully autonomous vehicles and realistically, we can expect that the industry will take approximately another 5-10 years before first actual fully autonomous deployments, in which time automakers will need to adopt a number of changes before we get there.
It is likely that high prices of AVs will mean that the first real deployments will be part of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), including e-hailing, ridesharing or robotaxi fleets. By replacing the cost of a human driver, and by having higher utilisation of the vehicles than consumers, companies could build a business model that can afford the high cost of the initial autonomous vehicles, and potentially get them on the roads within 5 years.
For autonomous vehicles to be commonplace, and not just in initial trial cities, the technology will need to reach Level 5 capabilities, where the autonomous drive system will need to be able to operate in any conditions at any speeds and in any areas. This will require much more sensor technology, and more advanced software and computing capabilities.
Two other factors will also weigh in here: public opinion and government regulations. Initial deployments of autonomous robotaxis will be in autonomous-friendly cities, where that friendliness can mean clement weather, easy traffic conditions, straight roads, and local government that embraces this technology.  It could also mean technologically friendly smart cities where roadside infrastructure will help augment the on-vehicle sensors, implementing V2I and making for a safer introduction of autonomy.
For autonomous vehicles to become commonplace and venture out from the confines of their “safe” cities, government regulations and guidelines will need to be put in place, which will also go a long way to easing public opinion. This is where we will start to see which countries/regions are most friendly to autonomy and where it has the potential to become most widespread.
From a technology perspective, there are many tasks that will take a significant amount of time. For example, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft needs companies to create approximately 14 million lines of code. In comparison, Level 4 AVs are going to need hundreds of millions of lines of code, and Level 5 over one billion. That’s the scale of the challenge that lies ahead.
Once the AVs have even been manufactured, auto makers also need time to certify them. Traditionally, OEMs need to complete 3 million miles of validation before a Level 2 vehicle can be certified. However, Level 4 AVs are going to need around 150 million miles of validation for on the road and simulation certification.
Clearly, no one company can do this alone. In order to speed up this process, collaboration is key, and this is why myself and the team at Arm work directly with OEMs, tier ones and software vendors to show them what is available to deploy in 5 years’ time.
I am positive about the progress the industry is making. Mobility in any part of the phase, whether fully electric or autonomous, has the ability to impact positive change towards the biggest societal issues the world is currently trying to tackle, such as urbanisation, digitisation and sustainability. The quicker the auto industry focuses on working together, the quicker we will start to see a fully autonomous world.