Japan, like South Korea, is under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, according to bilateral agreements. Now the Japanese political elite is thinking again about its nuclear potential. Some politicians openly state that it is time to leave two of the "three non-nuclear principles," officially allowing the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Japan.
At the same time, the state is ready to create atomic weapons, given its scientific, technical, and industrial means. In 2020, the Japanese government reported that it has about 45 tons of plutonium, more than 30 tons suitable for use in nuclear charges. This solid stock has accumulated due to many years of processing waste from Japanese nuclear power plants.
Before the accident at Fukushima in 2011, more than 50 nuclear power reactors were in operation. Most of these stocks are still stored not on Japanese territory, but abroad, where they were processed - mainly in the UK and France.
Hypothetically, it will take at least two years to create a ready-made nuclear warhead for Tokyo's missiles. In addition, Japan has delivery vehicles - missiles capable of transporting warheads long distances.
Among the deterrents to the revision of the non-nuclear principles are strong anti-nuclear sentiments of the society. There is also China, and the risk of escalating the ongoing territorial conflict over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
The government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is actively promoting the concept of "global zero," which confirms that Tokyo has no intention to develop its nuclear potential. At least in the short and medium term. At the same time, in connection with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is a surge of interest in Japan in the concept of "nuclear sharing," whereby the United States could, for example, put its nuclear weapons on Japanese aircraft carriers.