Estimates, while based on trends and past patterns, are still only estimates, so the actual Mega Millions jackpot amount may end up differing from the estimate. There aren't many examples to draw from when jackpots reach extraordinarily huge sizes. Forecasting exact numbers in advance can be challenging because up to 70% of sales typically occur on the drawing day and might be influenced by outside variables like the weather. The announced jackpot amounts are usually noted as estimations due to changes in both sales and the U.S. Treasuries rate. Actual jackpot payouts have historically occurred at levels above, below, and equal to the anticipated totals in nearly the same ratios.