Crude oil is the name for unprocessed fuel. Kerosene is a crude oil product so, if the cost of crude oil changes, heating oil prices normally follow. It’s hard to predict crude oil prices as this often depends on supply and demand. For the past couple of years, producers have pumped more oil than is needed, resulting in a surplus. With supply outstripping demand, the prices are lowered. In these situations, however, the production can be cut to create demand – though it would push prices back up. It simply can’t be forecast very easily.