Any delay in phasing out coal would jeopardize meeting the 1.5°C target while continuing to pose very serious health risks for the populations concerned. According to the International Energy Agency, air pollution from outdoor sources caused more than four million premature deaths in 2021, 85% of which were in emerging markets and developing economies, mainly in Asia (Coal in Net Zero Transitions, 2022).
Adding new coal projects (thermal or metallurgical coal mines, coal plants, or coal-related infrastructure) is thus strictly incompatible with a 1.5°C scenario, in addition to the additional health risks this will entail.
Nevertheless, there continue to be numerous expansion plans within the coal sector:
According to Global Energy Monitor’s Coal Plant Tracker, the total coal power capacity under development exceeds 550 GW. Under current projections, the global coal power fleet could reach 2,240 GW by 2030, while a capacity consistent with a 1.5°C scenario should not exceed 1,470 GW by 2030 (Boom and Bust Coal, Global Energy Monitor et al., April 2023). An expansion plan can refer to both a new project (announced, pre-/permitted, under construction), or expansion of an existing project.
These projects are carried out by numerous companies. All forms of investment and other financial support for such companies should be prohibited to prevent them from pursuing their expansion plans. In 2023, the Global Coal Exit List developed by Urgewald included 577 companies with expansion plans in the thermal coal sector.
Most importantly, financing subsidiaries belonging to corporate groups with coal assets and/or coal expansion plans must also be covered by sector policies.