Abstract
Based on geostatistical modelling the authors compared relative sea level records for the Litorina and post-Litorina Sea with tide gauge and GPS derived crustal velocity measurements in Fennoscandia and in the Baltic region. Results show good fit between the geological record and GPS derived crustal velocity measurements indicating that the postglacial rebound (PGR) centre on the northwest coast of the Bothnian Sea and the isostatic zero-line in the southern Baltic remained stable during the last 8000 14C yrs BP (8900 cal yrs BP). An average Baltic Sea level rise of 1.4±0.4 mm/y for the 20th century was estimated, which is found to be at about one fifth compared to the mid-Holocene sea level rise. However, considering the recent estimates of eustatic sea level rise for the 21st century the slowly uplifting coastal areas in southern Sweden, SE Finland, Estonia, Latvia and NW Russia, which have experienced a long term relative sea level fall, will probably also be affected by future sea level rise reminiscent of the mid-Holocene one.
Keywords: Relative sea level; Tide-gauge measurements; Postglacial rebound; Litorina Sea; Eustatic sea level rise; Vertical crustal movements; Baltic Sea
DOI: 10.5200/baltica.2012.25.11
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