Throughout 2021 just being able to buy the Xbox Series X for its $499 usual price has been considered an achievement when the alternative is paying over the odds on the resale market. For that reason alone don't count on a Black Friday Xbox Series X deal that discounts the console itself.
The cheaper Xbox Series S, which has a $299 retail price, has been easier to purchase in 2021. However, it's still regularly faced lengthy stock shortages. It’s highly unlikely that the entry-level next-gen Xbox will get any form of price cut for Black Friday either. Microsoft cannot reliably fulfill the demand even at its base retail price, so the chances of a discount seem remote.