As usual, the person asking the question is right. For the benefit of other readers, I indicate the rules in my March 4, 2008, column. The probability of the jackpot hitting is inversely proportional to the how far the jackpot is from the guaranteed hit point of $100,000. The closer you get to $100,000 there is a smaller range where the jackpot can hit, so the odds of hitting at any given moment go up. If the current jackpot is j, the probability it will hit before the jackpot goes up $1 (for j<=$99,999) is 1/(100,000-j). At a jackpot of $50,000 the probability of hitting before going up $1 is 0.002%. At a jackpot of $99,999, the probability of hittng before going up $1 is 100%. So, you win the bet.