For the benefit of other readers, this refers to a Nov 15, 2009 game in which the Patriots were up by six points over the Colts. There was 1:57 left in the fourth quarter, it was fourth down and about 1.5 yards, and the ball was on the Patriots’ 28 yard line. Patriots’ coach Bill Belichick made the now controversial decision to seal the victory and go for the first down on fourth and short, rather than kick the can down the road and punt.
There is a good column about this in the Las Vegas Review Journal. It quotes professional gambler and fellow actuary Steve Fezzik as saying that the odds favored going for the first down. I agree completely. In general, I think that other coaches punt too often, and too afraid of taking risks. To argue my position I asked fellow math head and sports bettor Joel B., who is much better than me at analyzing football odds mid-game. He offered the following odds:
Patriot’s probability of making the first down: 60%
Patriot’s probability of winning, given they make the first down: 100%
Patriot’s probability of winning, given they miss the first down: 50%
Patriot’s probability of winning, given they punt: 75%
So, the probability of winning by going for the first down is 60%×100% + 40%× 50% = 60% + 20% = 80%. That is greater than the 75% by punting.
The Monday morning quarterbacks can vilify Belichick all they want, but I applaud his decision. He shouldn’t be judged by the outcome of the game, but by whether or not the odds favored what he did at the time. I strongly feel that they did. A week later in the Ravens/Steelers game the Ravens went for it on 4th and 5, and made it. Although it was a different kind of situation, I’ve yet to hear anybody second-guess that decision.
In the interests of fairness, I am providing a link to an article taking the opposite point of view, titled Belichick’s fourth-and-reckless by Bill Simmons at ESPN.com