After exhibiting downward trends, steel rebar prices showed positive sentiments as manufacturing in China resumed despite some market wariness among Chinese construction firms in the short term. Also, the robust demand from the North American region drives the commodity’s prices.
On the supply side, the rising freight charges and the escalating tensions in the Middle East contribute to a global increase in Steel Rebar prices. Furthermore, the emerging need for green steel in Europe and Asia will likely increase as commitments made by governments and steelmakers to decarbonize will accelerate in 2024. This means more production for steel scrap, stabilizing steel rebar prices.
Steel industry experts offer a range of possibilities for 2030:
Moderate growth - A Goldman Sachs report predicts a 1.7% annual growth in global steel demand between 2023 and 2035, suggesting a gradual rise in rebar prices.
Regional variances - The Asia-Pacific region (a major steel consumer) will continue its growth, potentially keeping prices elevated in these markets.
Thus, here are the rough price estimates for steel rebar in 2030:
Low-end estimate - Assuming a gradual price increase mirroring overall economic trends will produce an average global price of around $800-$900 per metric ton by 2030.
High-end estimate - If unforeseen geopolitical or economic disruptions (for example, the unresolved Middle East tension which choked the global supply chain ) cause further cost inflation (coupled with high demand) the estimated steel rebar price will potentially reach $1,000-$1,100 per metric ton.