mteb/BrightProPsychologyRetrieval huggingface dataset:
In 1977,  Ray Hyman  wrote about the way in
which  hucksters  exploit the Forer effect to
take advantage of victims (or "  marks  "). He provided a list of factors that help these
tricksters to dupe their prey. For example, hucksters are more likely to be
successful if they exude an air of confidence ("If you look and act as if you
believe in what you are doing, you will be able to sell even a bad reading to
most of your subjects"), if they "[m]ake creative use of the latest
statistical abstracts, polls, and surveys" showing "what various subclasses of
our society believe, do, want, worry about, and so on", if they employ "a
gimmick, such as a crystal ball, tarot cards, or palm reading", if they are
alert to the clues provided about their clients by such details as their
"clothing, jewelry, mannerisms and speech", if they are not afraid of "hamming
it up", and if they use  flattery  .  [8]
They were victims of the Zodiac Killer
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"Forer" redirects here. For people with the surname, see  Forer (surname)
 "Forer \(surname\)") .
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In 1948, in what has been described as a "classic experiment",  [10]  
psychologist  Forer gave a psychology test
– his so-called "Diagnostic Interest Blank" – to 39 of his psychology
students, who were told that they would each receive a brief personality 
vignette  "Vignette \(psychology\)") based on
their test results. One week later Forer gave each student a purportedly
individualized vignette and asked each of them to rate it on how well it
applied. In reality, each student received the same vignette, consisting of
the following items:  [11]
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Priming is an effect of  implicit memory  where exposure to a certain stimulus, event, or experience affects
responding to a different stimulus. Typically, the event causes the stimulus
to become more salient. The transposed letter effect can be used as a form of
priming.
##  Types
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Post-traumatic stress disorder  

 Post-traumatic stress disorder  (PTSD) is the re-experiencing and avoidance of
trauma-related stressors, emotions, and memories from a past event or events
that has cognitive dramatizing impact on an individual.  [47]  PTSD can be
attributed to the functional impairment of the  prefrontal cortex
 (PFC) structure. Dysfunctions
of cognitive processing of context and abnormalities that PTSD patients often
have can affect hindsight thinking, such as in combat soldiers perceiving they
could have altered outcomes of events in war.  [48]  The PFC and  dopamine
 systems are parts of the brain that can be
responsible for the impairment in cognitive control processing of context
information. The PFC is well known for controlling the thought process in
hindsight bias that something will happen when it evidently does not. Brain
impairment in certain brain regions can also affect the thought process of an
individual who may engage in hindsight thinking.  [49]

Cognitive  flashbacks  "Flashback
\(psychology\)") and other associated features from a traumatic event can
trigger severe stress and negative emotions such as unpardonable guilt. For
example, studies were done on trauma-related guilt characteristics of war
veterans with chronic PTSD.  [50]  Although there has been limited research,
significant data suggests that hindsight bias has an effect on war veterans'
personal perception of wrongdoing, in terms of guilt and responsibility from
traumatic events of war. They blame themselves, and, in hindsight, perceive
that they could have prevented what happened.
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##  Who Is the Zodiac Killer?
With any priming task the purpose is to test the initial stages of processing
in order to better understand more complex processing. Psychologists use
transposed-letter priming to test how people comprehend word meanings. From
these findings, people can begin to understand how people learn, develop and
understand language. Transposed-letter priming is used in a wide array of
experiments and the reasons for using this method can depend on the particular
hypothesis  [ _ according to whom?
 _ ]  .
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###  Distant transpositions
01:46
Switching the position of adjacent letters in the base word is a close 
transposition  . This type of transposition creates the greatest
priming effect. For example, an effective prime for the word _computer_ would
be the TL non-word _comptuer_ .
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##  Newsletter
Surprise  

The role of surprise can help explain the malleability of hindsight bias.
Surprise influences how the mind reconstructs pre-outcome predictions in three
ways: 1\. Surprise is a direct metacognitive heuristic to estimate the
distance between outcome and prediction. 2\. Surprise triggers a deliberate 
sense-making process  . 3\. Surprise biases
this process ( the malleability of hindsight bias) by enhancing the recall of
surprise-congruent information and expectancy-based hypothesis testing.  [17]

Pezzo's sense-making model supports two contradicting ideas of a surprising
outcome. The results can show a lesser hindsight bias or possibly a reversed
effect, where the individual believes the outcome was not a possibility at
all. The outcome can also lead to the hindsight bias being magnified to have a
stronger effect. The sense-making process is triggered by an initial surprise.
If the sense-making process does not complete and the sensory information is
not detected or coded [by the individual], the sensation is experienced as a
surprise and the hindsight bias has a gradual reduction. When the sense-making
process is lacking, the phenomena of reversed hindsight bias is created.
Without the sense-making process being present, there is no remnant of thought
about the surprise. This can lead to a sensation of not believing the outcome
as a possibility.  [ _ clarification needed   _ ]  [17]
> >  #Breaking
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>  cipher: 
> pic.twitter.com/cJCtlDEbMw 
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Retrieved from " 
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Transposed_letter_effect&oldid=1201261721

"
#  Transposed letter effect
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Michael Birnbaum  , a
professor of psychology at  California State University, Fullerton
 , has noted that the Forer effect is used by  magicians
 "Magician \(paranormal\)") and  psychics
 when they give so-called "  cold readings
 ", as well as by certain TV personalities
who claim psychoanalytical expertise and profess to be able to diagnose a
guest's psychological problems in a few minutes. "Real psychologists are
horrified by this practice", states Birnbaum, but they fail to criticize it
vigorously enough in public, and so it continues to be treated with a respect
it doesn't deserve.  [17]  "It is regrettable that academic psychology has not
paid more attention to the cold reading technique", Denis Dutton wrote in
1988, "in as much as the widespread practice of successful cold reading forms
the basis for much of the belief in paranormal powers to be found in society
today." While academic psychologists had focused in their studies on students,
Dutton called for "analysis of the actual techniques and methods used by
proficient cold readers".  [10]
Read More:   Cracking the Cold Case of a 1000-Year-Old Mummy Murder
By  Leah Asmelash  and  Cheri Mossburg   , CNN
Positive  

Positive consequences of hindsight bias is an increase in one's confidence and
performance, as long as the bias distortion is reasonable and does not create
overconfidence. Another positive consequence is that one's self-assurance of
their knowledge and decision-making, even if it ends up being a poor decision,
can be beneficial to others; allowing others to experience new things or to
learn from those who made the poor decisions.  [34]
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 Memory errors  |

*  Confabulation 
*  Cryptomnesia 
* Hindsight bias
*  Imagination inflation 
*  Memory biases 
*  Memory conformity 
*  Misattribution of memory 
*  Misinformation effect 
*  Source-monitoring error 

 False memory  |

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*  Lost in the mall technique 
*  Recovered-memory therapy 

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* [ Effects of exercise ](/wiki/Neurobiological_effects_of_physical_exercise
Wonder no more, true-crime aficionados.
Age  

It is more difficult to test for hindsight bias in children than adults
because the verbal methods used in experiments on adults are too complex for
children to understand, let alone measure bias. Some experimental procedures
have been created with visual identification to test children about their
hindsight bias in a way they can grasp. Methods with visual images start by
presenting a blurry image to the child that becomes clearer over time. In some
conditions, the subjects know what the final object is and in others they do
not. In cases where the subject knows what the object shape will become when
the image is clear, they are asked to estimate the amount of time other
participants of similar age will take to guess what the object is. Due to
hindsight bias, the estimated times are often much lower than the actual
times. This is because the participant is using their personal knowledge while
making their estimate.  [20]

These types of studies show that children are also affected by hindsight bias.
Adults and children with hindsight bias share the core cognitive constraint of
being biased to one's current knowledge while, at the same time, attempting to
recall or reason about a more naïve cognitive state—regardless of whether the
more naïve state is one's earlier naïve state or someone else's.
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Oranchak detailed the process for cracking the cipher on  his website
 and  in a YouTube video
 , where he
used a specifically developed decryption software and a bit of luck to finally
make the connection. The team used a unique program to sift through 650,000
variations of the message. In one, a couple of words appeared.
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Motivated forgetting  

Main article:  Motivated forgetting 

Following a negative outcome of a situation, people do not want to accept 
responsibility  .
Instead of accepting their role in the event, they might either view
themselves as caught up in a situation that was unforeseeable with them
therefore not being the culprits (this is referred to as defensive processing)
or view the situation as inevitable with there therefore being nothing that
could have been done to prevent it (this is retroactive pessimism).  [32]
Defensive processing involves less hindsight bias, as they are playing
ignorant of the event. Retroactive pessimism makes use of hindsight bias after
a negative, unwanted outcome. Events in life can be hard to control or
predict. It is no surprise that people want to view themselves in a more
positive light and do not want to take responsibility for situations they
could have altered. This leads to hindsight bias in the form of retroactive
pessimism to inhibit upward  counterfactual thinking
 , instead
interpreting the outcome as succumbing to an inevitable fate.  [33]

This  memory inhibition  that
prevents a person from recalling what happened may lead to failure to accept
mistakes, and therefore may make someone unable to learn and grow to prevent
repeating the mistake.  [32]  Hindsight bias can also lead to  overconfidence
 in decisions without considering
other options.  [7]  Such people see themselves as persons who remember
correctly, even though they are just forgetting that they were wrong. Avoiding
responsibility is common among the human population. Examples are discussed
below to show the regularity and severity of hindsight bias in society.
Oct 31, 2023 4:15 PM  Mar 25, 2024 5:54 PM
By  Stephen Ornes
To The Magazine
10 Famous Scientists and Their Contributions
Hindsight bias

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[ Edit links
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The first study to test the transposed-letter effects was Burner and O'Dowd
(1958).  [5]  However, their experiment did not use priming. They showed
participants a word that had two letters switched either at the beginning, in
the middle or at the end of the word and they had to determine what the
English word was. They measured their response time. Bruner and O'Dowd found
that the error at the beginning created the slowest response time, the end was
the next slowest and the middle was the fastest  [ _ citation needed
 _ ]  . The
conclusion to this data was that the beginning and the end were more important
for word recognition than the middle. From there, the transposition letter
effect was used to test how people process and recognize words using many
tasks.
Updated 7:49 PM EST, Fri December 11, 2020
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###  Theories supported by effect of transposed-letter priming
###  Transposed word effect
##  2021: FBI Verifies Zodiac Cipher Solved
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the words. It is an  urban legend  and 
Internet meme  that only appears to be
correct.  [16]
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Type of confirmation bias

"Hindsight" redirects here. For other uses, see  Hindsight (disambiguation)
 "Hindsight \(disambiguation\)") .

**Hindsight bias** , also known as the **knew-it-all-along phenomenon** [1]
or **creeping determinism** ,  [2]  is the common tendency for people to
perceive past events as having been more predictable than they were.  [3]  [4]

After an event has occurred, people often believe that they would have
predicted or perhaps even would have known with a high degree of certainty
what the outcome of the event would have been before the event occurred.
Hindsight bias may cause distortions of memories of what was known or believed
before an event occurred, and is a significant source of  overconfidence
 regarding an
individual's ability to predict the outcomes of future events.  [5]  Examples
of hindsight bias can be seen in the writings of historians describing
outcomes of battles, physicians recalling clinical trials, and in judicial
systems as individuals attribute responsibility on the basis of the supposed
predictability of accidents.  [6]  [7]  [2]

In some countries, 20/20 indicates normal  visual acuity
 at 20 feet, from which derives the
idiom "  hindsight is 20/20

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Healthcare system  

Accidents are prone to happen in any human undertaking, but accidents
occurring within the  healthcare system  seem more salient and severe because of their profound effect on the
lives of those involved and sometimes result in the death of a patient. In the
healthcare system, there are a number of methods in which specific cases of
accidents that happened being reviewed by others who already know the outcome
of the case. Those methods include  morbidity and mortality conferences
 ,  autopsies  , case analysis, 
medical malpractice  claims
analysis, staff interviews, and even patient observation. Hindsight bias has
been shown to cause difficulties in measuring errors in these cases.  [51]
Many of the errors are considered preventable after the fact, which clearly
indicates the presence and the importance of a hindsight bias in this field.
There are two sides in the debate in how these case reviews should be
approached to best evaluate past cases: the error elimination strategy and the
safety management strategy.  [2]  The error elimination strategy aims to find
the cause of errors, relying heavily on hindsight (therefore more subject to
the hindsight bias).  [2]  The safety management strategy relies less on
hindsight (less subject to hindsight bias) and identifies possible constraints
during the decision-making process of that case. However, it is not immune to
error.  [2]
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Psychologist  Bertram Forer  originally
named it the "fallacy of personal validation".  [2]  The term "Barnum effect"
was coined in 1956 by psychologist  Paul Meehl  in his essay "Wanted – A Good Cookbook", because he relates the vague
personality descriptions used in certain "pseudo-successful" psychological
tests to those given by showman  P. T. Barnum  .  [3]  [4]
Consequences  

Hindsight bias has both positive and negative consequences. The bias also
plays a role in the process of decision-making within the medical field.
Have You Heard The One About The Mathematician...
Investment industry  

Hindsight bias influences the decisions of investors in the investment sector.
Investors tend to be overconfident in predicting the future because we
mistakenly believe that we have predicted the present in the past, so we
assume that the future will follow our predictions. Overconfidence is the
killer for investment returns. Biais et al. show that hindsight bias allows
people to underestimate the magnitude of volatility and that investment agents
with hindsight bias have worse investment return performance.  [62]  Research
suggests that the main cause of hindsight bias is that no investor can
remember how they made their decisions at the time. Therefore, in order to
invest more rationally and safely, investors should keep a diary of the
influences, outcomes and show why those outcomes were achieved when making
their investment decisions.  [63]  However, although the diary approach
largely prevents investors from forgetting conditions that have led to insight
bias and overconfidence. The process of writing down the investment approach
still leads to overconfidence, but the study found that it does not have an
overall negative effect on current returns.  [64]
*  Entropy (information theory)  "Entropy \(information theory\)")
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* Rawlinson, Graham (2012). Davis, Matt (ed.). [ "The Significance of Letter Position in Word Recognition _[...]_ A Summary" ](http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/matt.davis/Cmabrigde/rawlinson/) . _MRC - Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit - People_ . Retrieved  2016-07-04  .
*  Abstract of Graham Rawlinson's Thesis in Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine, IEEE, Jan 2007. 
* Jordan, T.R. (1990). Presenting words without interior letters: Superiority over single letters and influence of postmask boundaries.  Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance  , 16, 893-909.
* Mandell, Judy (2017). "  Chunking: The Brain’s Shortcut to Understanding and Recalling Information  ," March 2017,  Observer.com  .
*  Online typoglycemia generator.
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