mteb/BrightProPsychologyRetrieval huggingface dataset:
*  1969 births 
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*  Members of the Privy Council of the United Kingdom 
*  People educated at Colfe's School 
*  People from Lewisham 
*  Royal Artillery officers 
*  UK MPs 2015–2017 
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Leader of the  Conservative Party
in the London Assembly 
**In office**
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Preceded by  |   Roger Evans  "Roger
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**In office**
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Cleverly advocated voting for  Brexit  in the  2016
EU membership referendum  .  [28]
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Medical decision-making  

Hindsight bias may lead to overconfidence and malpractice in regards to
physicians. Hindsight bias and overconfidence is often attributed to the
number of years of experience the physician has. After a procedure, physicians
may have a "knew it the whole time" attitude, when in reality they may not
have known it. Medical  decision support systems
 are designed to
assist physicians in diagnosis and treatment, and have been suggested as a way
to counteract hindsight bias. However, these decision support systems come
with drawbacks, as going against a recommended decision resulted in more
punitive jury outcomes when physicians were found liable for causing harm.
[36]
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Schizophrenia  

 Schizophrenia  is an example of a
disorder that directly affects the hindsight bias. Individuals with
schizophrenia are more strongly affected by the hindsight bias than are
individuals from the general public.  [44]

The hindsight bias effect is a paradigm that demonstrates how recently
acquired knowledge influences the recollection of past information. Recently
acquired knowledge has a strange but strong influence on schizophrenic
individuals in relation to information previously learned. New information
combined with rejection of memories can disconfirm behavior and  delusional
 belief, which is typically found in patients with
schizophrenia.  [44]  This can cause faulty memory, which can lead to
hindsight thinking and believing in knowing something they do not.  [44]
Delusion-prone individuals with schizophrenia can falsely  jump to
conclusions  .  [45]
Jumping to conclusions can lead to hindsight, which strongly influences the
delusional conviction in individuals with schizophrenia.  [45]  In numerous
studies, cognitive functional deficits in schizophrenic individuals impair
their ability to represent and uphold contextual processing.  [46]
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Attempts to reduce hindsight bias  

Research suggests that people still exhibit the hindsight bias even when they
are aware of it or possess the intention of eradicating it.  [41]  There is no
solution to eliminate hindsight bias in its totality, but only ways to reduce
it.  [7]  Some of these include considering alternative explanations or
opening one's mind to different perspectives.  [22]  The only observable way
to decrease hindsight bias in testing is to have the participant think about
how alternative hypotheses could be correct. As a result, the participant
would doubt the correct hypothesis and report not having chosen it.

Given that researchers' attempts to eliminate hindsight bias have failed, some
believe there is a possible combination of motivational and automatic
processes in cognitive reconstruction.  [42]  Incentive prompts participants
to use more effort to recover even the weak memory traces. This idea supports
the  causal model theory  and the use of
 sense-making  to understand event
outcomes.  [22]
Cognitive models  

|

This section **may be too technical for most readers to understand** .  Please
 help improve it
 to 
make it understandable to non-experts
 , without removing the technical details.
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---|---

To understand how a person can so easily change the foundation of knowledge
and belief for events after receiving new information, three cognitive models
of hindsight bias have been reviewed.  [22]  The three models are:

* SARA (Selective Activation and Reconstructive Anchoring),
* RAFT (reconstruction after feedback with take the best), and
* CMT (causal model theory).

SARA and RAFT focus on distortions or changes in a memory process, while CMT
focuses on probability judgments of hindsight bias.

The SARA model, created by Rüdiger Pohl and associates, explains hindsight
bias for descriptive information in memory and hypothetical situations. Memory
design is when the participants make foresight judgements, and then recall
them in hindsight. Hypothetical design is when participants make hindsight
judgements as if they had not known the outcome.  [22]  [23]  SARA assumes
that people have a set of images to draw their memories from. They suffer from
the hindsight bias due to  selective activation or biased sampling  [ _
clarification needed   _ ]  of that set of images.

Basically, people only remember small, select amounts of information—and when
asked to recall it later, use that biased image to support their opinions
about the situation. The set of images is originally processed in the brain
when first experienced. When remembered, this image reactivates, and the mind
can edit and alter the memory, which takes place in hindsight bias when new
and correct information is presented, leading one to believe that this new
information, when remembered at a later time, is the person's original memory.
Due to this reactivation in the brain, there may be permanent changes to the
existing  memory trace
") . The new information acts as a  memory anchor
 causing retrieval impairment.  [24]

The RAFT model  [25]  explains hindsight bias with comparisons of objects. It
uses knowledge-based probability and then applies interpretations to those
probabilities.  [22]  When given two choices, a person recalls the information
on both topics and makes assumptions based on how reasonable they find the
information. An example case is someone comparing the size of two cities. If
they know one city well (e.g. because it has a popular sporting team or
through personal history) and know much less about the other, their mental 
cues &action=edit&redlink=1 "Cue
\(psychology\) \(page does not exist\)") for the more popular city increase.
They then "take the best" option in their assessment of their probabilities.
For example, they recognize a city due to knowing its sports team, and thus
they assume that that city has the highest population. "Take the best" refers
to a cue that is viewed as most valid and becomes support for the person's
interpretations. RAFT is a by-product of  adaptive learning
 . Feedback information updates
Retrieved from " 
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Barnum_effect&oldid=1196036455
 "
Memory "Neurobiological effects of physical exercise")
*  Emotion 
*  Memory improvement 
*  Nutrition 
*  Sleep 
*  Trauma 

In society  |

*  Memory sport 
*  World Memory Championships 
*  Shas Pollak 

Related  |

*  Absent-mindedness 
*  Atkinson–Shiffrin memory model 
*  Context-dependent  and  state-dependent  memory
*  Childhood memory 
*  Exosomatic memory 
*  Free recall 
*  Intermediate-term memory 
*  Involuntary memory 
*  flashbacks  "Flashback \(psychology\)")
*  Levels of Processing model 
*  Metamemory 
*  Muscle memory 
*  Priming  "Priming \(psychology\)")
*  intertrial 
*  Prospective  and  retrospective  memory
* _ The Seven Sins of Memory  _

People  |

|  Researchers  |

*  Richard C. Atkinson 
*  Robert A. Bjork 
*  Stephen J. Ceci 
*  Susan Clancy 
*  Hermann Ebbinghaus 
*  Sigmund Freud 
*  Patricia Goldman-Rakic 
*  Ivan Izquierdo 
*  Marcia K. Johnson 
*  Eric Kandel 
*  Elizabeth Loftus 
*  Geoffrey Loftus 
*  James McGaugh 
*  Eleanor Maguire 
*  George Armitage Miller 
*  Brenda Milner 
*  Lynn Nadel 
*  Henry L. Roediger III 
*  Daniel Schacter 
*  Richard Shiffrin 
*  Arthur P. Shimamura 
*  Larry Squire 
*  Susumu Tonegawa 
*  Anne Treisman 
*  Endel Tulving 
*  Robert Stickgold
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Personality  

Along with the emotion of surprise, the personality traits of an individual
affect hindsight bias. A new C model is an approach to figure out the bias and
accuracy in human inferences because of their individual personality traits.
This model integrates accurate personality judgments and hindsight effects as
a by-product of knowledge updating.

During the study, three processes showed potential to explain the occurrence
of hindsight effects in personality judgments: 1\. Changes in an individual's
cue perceptions, 2\. Changes in the use of more valid cues, and 3\. Changes in
the consistency with which an individual applies cue knowledge.

After two studies, it was clear that there were hindsight effects for each of
the  Big Five personality dimensions  . Evidence was found that both the utilization of
more valid cues and changes in cue perceptions of the individual, but not
changes in the consistency with which cue knowledge is applied, account for
the hindsight effects. During both of these studies, participants were
presented with target pictures and were asked to judge each target's levels of
the Big Five personality traits.  [18]

In a study of 75 participants, researchers tested 10 personalities about
hindsight bias. This study conducted three comparisons of hindsight estimation
with foresight estimation (memory conditioning), hindsight estimation with
forward estimation with other participants, and hindsight estimation with
foresight estimation. The participants in these comparisons all Demonstrated
hindsight bias. Personality measures cannot account for memory hindsight in
multiple regression analysis. Hindsight in individual differences is present
but must be accounted for in the full effect model.  [19]
Slot-based coding theory states that each letter in a word is connected to a
particular location, or slot, within that word. One of the major theories that
predict letter slots is the interactive activation model created by 
McClelland  "James McClelland
\(psychologist\)") and  Rumelhart 
(1981).  [8]  This model assumes that people are letter-position specific when
detecting words, so our recognition of words is based on what letters it
contains, where the letters are placed within that word and the length of the
word itself. Another example is the Bayesian reader model created by Norris
(2006) which also assumes that the letters in a word are associated with their
specific location.  [9]  Many experiments (for example, Perea and Lupker,
2003)  [10]  have shown if transposed-letter priming is used, (for example,
priming _judge_ with _jugde_ ) a priming effect will be seen, but if the prime
is a word where two letters are changed to other letters (for example, priming
_judge_ with _jupfe_ ), there is no priming effect. According to the two
models discussed, _jugde_ would be assumed to be no more similar to _judge_
than _jupfe_ because the letters are not in the correct slots. In another
experiment, TL non-words were more likely to be (incorrectly) classified as
actual words than are nonsense control words (Andrews, 1996).  [11]  Andrew’s
results are also inconsistent with the many slot-based coding models because
even with two of the letters in the incorrect spot, they read the word as if
spelled correctly.
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Further reading  

*  Excerpt from: David G. Myers, _Exploring Social Psychology_ . New York: McGraw-Hill, 1994, pp. 15–19.  (More discussion of Paul Lazarsfeld's experimental questions.)
* Ken Fisher,  Forecasting (Macro and Micro) and Future Concepts  , on Market Analysis (4/7/06)
*  _Social Cognition_ (2007) Vol. 25, Special Issue: The Hindsight Bias 
*  _Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight_  . Paul Goodwin. _ Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting  _ , Spring 2010.
*  _Iraq War Naysayers May Have Hindsight Bias_  . Shankar Vedantam. _The Washington Post_ .

*  v  
*  t  
*  e  

 Biases 

---

 Cognitive biases 

|

*  Acquiescence 
*  Ambiguity 
*  Anchoring  "Anchoring \(cognitive bias\)")
*  Attentional 
*  Attribution 
*  Actor–observer 
*  Correspondence 
*  Authority 
*  Automation 
*  Availability 
*  Mean world 
*  Belief 
*  Blind spot 
*  Choice-supportive 
*  Commitment 
*  Confirmation 
*  Compassion fade 
*  Congruence 
*  Cultural 
*  Distinction 
*  Dunning–Kruger 
*  Egocentric 
*  Curse of knowledge 
*  Emotional 
*  Extrinsic incentives 
*  Fading affect 
*  Framing  "Framing effect \(psychology\)")
*  Frequency 
*  Frog pond effect 
*  Halo effect 
* Hindsight
*  Horn effect 
*  Hostile attribution 
*  Impact 
*  Implicit 
*  In-group 
*  Mean world syndrome 
*  Mere-exposure effect 
*  Negativity 
*  Normalcy 
*  Omission 
*  Optimism 
*  Out-group homogeneity 
*  Outcome 
*  Overton window 
*  Precision 
*  Present 
*  Pro-innovation
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Wikipedia  

Since hindsight leads people to focus on information that is consistent with
what happened while inconsistent information is ignored or regarded as less
relevant,  [56]  [57]  it is likely included in representations about the past
as well. In a study of Wikipedia articles  [58]  the latest article versions
before the event (foresight article versions) were compared to two hindsight
article versions: the first online after the event took place and another one
eight weeks later. To be able to investigate various types of events, even
including disasters (such as the nuclear disaster at  Fukushima
 ), for which foresight articles do not exist, the authors made use
of articles about the structure that suffered damage in those instances (such
as the article about the nuclear power plant of Fukushima). When analyzing to
what extent the articles were suggestive of a particular event, they found
only articles about disasters to be much more suggestive of the disaster in
hindsight than in foresight, which indicated hindsight bias. For the remaining
event categories, however, Wikipedia articles did not show any hindsight bias.
In an attempt to compare individuals' and Wikipedia's hindsight bias more
directly, another study  [59]  came to the conclusion that Wikipedia articles
are less susceptible to hindsight bias than individuals' representations.
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