mteb/BrightProPsychologyRetrieval huggingface dataset:
Judicial system  

Hindsight bias results in being held to a higher standard in  court
 . The defense is particularly susceptible to these
effects since their actions are the ones being scrutinized by the  jury
 . The hindsight bias causes  defendants
 to be judged as capable of preventing the bad
outcome.  [52]  Although much stronger for the defendants, hindsight bias also
affects the  plaintiffs  . In cases that
there is an assumption of risk, hindsight bias may contribute to the jurors
perceiving the event as riskier because of the poor outcome. That may lead the
jury to feel that the plaintiff should have exercised greater caution in the
situation. Both effects can be minimized if attorneys put the jury in a
position of  foresight  "Foresight
\(psychology\)") , rather than hindsight, through the use of language and
timelines. Judges and juries are likely to mistakenly view negative events as
being more foreseeable than what it was in the moment when they look at the
situation after the fact in court.  [53]  Encouraging people to explicitly
think about the counterfactuals was an effective means of reducing the
hindsight bias.  [54]  In other words, people became less attached to the
actual outcome and were more open to consider alternative lines of reasoning
prior to the event.  Judges  involved in fraudulent
transfer  litigation  cases were subject to
the hindsight bias as well and result in an unfair advantage for the
plaintiff,  [55]  showing that jurors are not the only ones sensitive to the
effects of the hindsight bias in the courtroom.
1  free  article  left
1. ** ^  ** Unscrambled: "According to a recshearch [ _ sic  _ ] at Cambridge University, it doesn't matter in what order the letters in a word are, the only importent [ _ sic  _ ] thing is that the first and last letter be at the right place. The rest can be a total mess and you can still read it without problem. This is because the human mind does not read every letter by itself, but the word as a whole."
Psychological effect involving letters in a word
**This section has multiple issues.** Please help ** improve it
 ** or discuss these issues on the ** talk page
 ** .
_( Learn how and when to remove these template messages

) _
*  Barbarous name 
*  Black Mass 
*  Body worship 
*  Curse 
*  Diabolical rebaptism 
*  Emotional exorcism 
*  Enochian Keys 
*  Fertility rite 
*  Hail Satan 
*  Host desecration 
*  The infernal names 
*  Osculum infame 
*  Shemhamphorasch 
*  Sign of the horns 
*  So mote it be 
*  Voodoo
The Barnum effect is manifested in response to statements that are called
"Barnum statements", meaning that general characterizations attributed to an
individual are perceived to be true for them, even though the statements are
such generalizations that they could apply to almost anyone. Such techniques
are used by  fortune tellers  , 
astrologers  , and other practitioners to
convince customers that they, the practitioners, are in fact endowed with a 
paranormal  gift.  [5]  The effect is a
specific example of the so-called "acceptance phenomenon", which describes the
general tendency of humans "to accept almost any bogus personality feedback".
[6]  A related and more general phenomenon is that of  subjective validation
 .  [7]
Negative  

Hindsight bias causes overconfidence in one's performance relative to others.
[35]  Hindsight bias decreases one's rational thinking because of when a
person experiences strong emotions, which in turn decreases rational thinking.
Another negative consequence of hindsight bias is the interference of one's
ability to learn from experience, as a person is unable to look back on past
decisions and learn from mistakes. A third consequence is a decrease in
sensitivity toward a victim by the person who caused the wrongdoing. The
person demoralizes the victim and does not allow for a correction of behaviors
and actions.  [34]
The Zodiac Killer is most known for leaving a trail of  five unsolved murders
between 1968 and 1969 
. He was never caught, but he gained notoriety by writing letters to police
and local media up until 1974, sometimes in code, boasting of the killings.
What Are Wormholes, and Could They Be the Answer to Time Travel?
##  Exploiting the effect
Memory_biases "List of cognitive biases")

*  v  
*  t  
*  e  

 Human memory 

---
Basic concepts  |

*  Encoding  "Encoding \(memory\)")
*  Storage  "Storage \(memory\)")
*  Recall  "Recall \(memory\)")

*  Attention 
*  Consolidation 
*  Neuroanatomy 

Types  |

|   Sensory  |

*  Echoic 
*  Eidetic 
*  Eyewitness 
*  Haptic 
*  Iconic 
*  Motor learning 
*  Visual 

---|---
 Short-term  |

* "  The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two  "
*  Working memory 

 Long-term  |

*  Active recall 
*  Autobiographical 
*  Explicit 
*  Declarative 
*  Episodic 
*  Semantic 
*  Flashbulb 
*  Hyperthymesia 
*  Implicit 
*  Meaningful learning 
*  Personal-event 
*  Procedural 
*  Rote learning 
*  Selective retention 
*  Tip of the tongue 

 Forgetting  |

*  Amnesia 
*  anterograde 
*  childhood
Cancel  Submit
##  Theories affected
For the TV episode, see  The Irrational  .
Read More:   Cryptologists Decode Mary Queen of Scots' Letters
3 minute read
Read More:   Top 5 Pieces of Forensic Evidence Used to Solve a Crime
##  Early research
1  free  article   Subscribe
##  Internet meme
My Science Shop   Periodic Mug
See also  

*  Confirmation bias  – Bias confirming existing attitudes
*  Curse of knowledge  – Cognitive bias of failing to disregard information only available to oneself
*  Egg of Columbus  – 16th-century anecdote about hindsight
*  Historian's fallacy  – Type of informal fallacy
*  Memory conformity  – Phenomenon in memory
*  Observational error  – Difference between a measured value of a quantity and its true value
*  Outcome bias  – Decision-making Bias
*  Sampling bias  – Bias in the sampling of a population
*  Selection bias  – Bias in a statistical analysis due to non-random selection
* Barnum effect
*  Cold reading 
*  Confidence trick 
*  Covert hypnosis 
*  Evil eye 
*  Glamour  "Glamour \(presentation\)")
*  Body image 
*  Body odor 
*  Persona  "Persona \(psychology\)")
*  Phrenology 
*  Physiognomy 
*  Somatotype 
*  Psychological manipulation 
*  Kinesics 
*  Reactivity  "Reactivity \(psychology\)")
*  Sleight of hand 
*  Smoke and mirrors 
*  Soft power 
*  Sprezzatura
02:03
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*  Azərbaycanca  
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In the late 1960s, a   serial killer   self-identifying as
“the Zodiac” killed at least five people in Northern California and claimed to
have murdered more. In November 1969, the Zodiac Killer sent a card to the
San Francisco Chronicle  containing a 340-character secret message that for
more than 50 years went unsolved by detectives, cryptography experts, amateur
sleuths, and curious others.
Some versions of the text end by saying "Such a cdonition is arppoiately
cllaed Typoglycemia :)- Amzanig huh?"  [17]  [ _ non-primary source needed
 _ ]
No such research was carried out at the  University of Cambridge
 .  [16]  These
emails may have been inspired by a letter from Graham Rawlinson of the 
University of Nottingham  to _ New Scientist  _ in
1999  [18]  in which he discusses his 1976  Ph.D. 
thesis,  [19]  or perhaps by the research of Thomas R. Jordan's group on the
relative influences of the exterior and interior letters of words.  [20]
1\. How relevant is this ad to you?
#  Barnum effect
*  Pre-markets 
*  After-Hours 
*  Market Movers 
*  Fear & Greed 
*  World Markets 
*  Investing 
*  Markets Now 
*  Before the Bell 
*  Nightcap 
*  Health
*  As Equals 
*  Call to Earth 
*  Freedom Project 
*  Impact Your World 
*  Inside Africa 
*  2 Degrees 
*  CNN Heroes 
*  All Features 
*  Weather
##  Factors influencing the effect
*  Tech 
*  Media 
*  Calculators 
*  Videos 
*  Markets
*  The Fallacy of Personal Validation: A Classroom Demonstration of Gullibility By: Bertram R. Forer (Full Text) 
*  Skeptic's Dictionary: the Forer effect
##  Decades of Analyzing the Zodiac Killer Letters
03:33
Visual hindsight bias  

Hindsight bias has also been found to affect judgments regarding the
perception of visual stimuli, an effect referred to as the "I saw it all
along" phenomenon.  [37]  This effect has been demonstrated experimentally
[38]  by presenting participants with initially very blurry images of
celebrities. Participants then viewed the images as the images resolved to
full clarity (Phase 1). Following Phase 1, participants predicted the level of
blur at which a peer would be able to make an accurate identification of each
celebrity. It was found that, now that the identity of the celebrities in each
image was known, participants significantly overestimated the ease with which
others would be able to identify the celebrities when the images were blurry.

The phenomenon of visual hindsight bias has important implications for a form
of malpractice litigation that occurs in the field of radiology.  [39]  [38]
Typically, in these cases, a radiologist is charged with having failed to
detect the presence of an abnormality that was present in a radiology image.
During litigation, a different radiologist – who now knows that the image
contains an abnormality – is asked to judge how likely it would be for a naive
radiologist to have detected the abnormality during the initial reading of the
image. This kind of judgment directly parallels the judgments made in
hindsight bias studies. Consistent with the hindsight bias literature, it has
been found that abnormalities are, in fact, more easily detected in hindsight
than foresight.  [40]  In the absence of controls for hindsight bias,
testifying radiologists may overestimate the ease with which the abnormality
would have been detected in foresight.  [38]
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Individual differences  

A multinomial processing tree (MPT) model was used to identify processes
underlying the phenomenon of hindsight bias (HB). A 2015 study extended HB by
incorporating individual differences in cognitive function into estimates of
core parameters of the model for older and younger adults the MPT model. The
findings suggest that (1) in the absence of outcome knowledge, better episodic
memory is associated with higher recall, (2) Better episodic memory and
inhibitory control and higher working memory abilities were associated with
higher recall abilities in the presence of knowledge of the outcome, (3)
Better inhibitory control is associated with less reconstruction bias. Despite
a similar pattern of effects in young adults, cognitive covariates did not
significantly predict the underlying HB process in this age group. Overall,
the findings of this study suggest that working memory capacity and inhibitory
control contribute to individual differences in recall bias and reconstruction
bias, respectively, especially in older adults.  [43]
In 1947, psychologist  Ross Stagner
") asked a number of personnel managers to take a personality
test. After they had taken the test, Stagner, instead of responding with
feedback based on their actual individual answers, presented each of them with
generalized feedback that had no relation to their test answers but that was,
instead, based on horoscopes,  graphological 
analyses, and the like. Each of the managers was then asked how accurate the
assessment of him or her was. More than half described the assessment as
accurate, and almost none described it as wrong.  [8]  [9]
###  Close transpositions
*  World
*  1958 introductions 
*  Cognitive biases 
*  Psycholinguistics
Outcome valence and intensity  

Hindsight bias is more likely to occur when the outcome of an event is
negative rather than positive.  [14]  This is a phenomenon consistent with the
general tendency for people to pay more attention to negative outcomes of
events than positive outcomes.  [15]

In addition, hindsight bias is affected by the severity of the negative
outcome. In malpractice lawsuits, it has been found that the more severe a
negative outcome is, the juror's hindsight bias is more dramatic. In a
perfectly objective case, the verdict would be based on the physician's 
standard of care  instead of the
outcome of the treatment; however, studies show that cases ending in severe
negative outcomes (such as death) result in a higher level of hindsight bias.
[ _ citation needed   _ ]

For example, in 1996, LaBine proposed a scenario where a psychiatric patient
told a therapist that he was contemplating harming another individual. The
therapist did not warn the other individual of the possible danger.
Participants were each given one of three possible outcomes; the threatened
individual either received no injuries, minor injuries, or serious injuries.
Participants were then asked to determine if the physician should be
considered negligent. Participants in the "serious injuries" condition were
not only more likely to rate the therapist as negligent but also rated the
attack as more foreseeable. Participants in the no injuries and minor injury
categories were more likely to see the therapist's actions as reasonable.
[16]
03:34
Auditory hindsight bias  

Hindsight bias also affects human communications. To test auditory hindsight
bias, four experiments were completed. Experiment one included plain words, in
which  low-pass filters  were used
to reduce the amplitude for sounds of consonants; thus making the words more
degraded. In the naïve-identification task, participants were presented a
warning tone before hearing the degraded words. In the hindsight estimation
task, a warning tone was presented before the clear word followed by the
degraded version of the word. Experiment two included words with explicit
warnings of the hindsight bias. It followed the same procedure as experiment
one. However, the participants were informed and asked not to complete the
same error. Experiment three included full sentences of degraded words rather
than individual words. Experiment four included less-degraded words in order
to make the words easier to understand and identify to the participants.

By using these different techniques, this offered a different range of
detection and also evaluated the  ecological validity
 of the experiment's effect.
In each experiment, the hindsight estimates of the percentage that their naïve
peers can correctly identify the words, all exceed the actual percentages.
Therefore, knowing the identities of words caused people to overestimate
others' naïve ability to identify moderately to highly degraded spoken
versions of those words. People who know the outcome of an event tend to
overestimate their prior knowledge or others' naïve knowledge of the event. As
a result, speakers—knowing what is being communicated—tend to overestimate the
clarity of their message while listeners—hearing what they want to hear—tend
to overestimate their understanding of ambiguous messages. This
miscommunication stems from hindsight bias which then creates a feeling of
inevitability. Overall, this auditory hindsight bias occurs despite people's
effort to avoid it.  [21]
*  Psychological theories of magic 
*  Medical explanations of bewitchment 
*  Myth and ritual 
*  Magia Naturalis 
*  Voodoo death
Mathematical Solution Found For Jigsaw Problem We've All Faced
*  computing 
*  math
History  

The hindsight bias, although it was not yet named, was not a new concept when
it emerged in  psychological  research in the
1970s. In fact, it had been indirectly described numerous times by historians,
 philosophers  , and physicians.  [2]  In
1973,  Baruch Fischhoff  attended
a seminar where  Paul E. Meehl  stated
an observation that clinicians often overestimate their ability to have
foreseen the outcome of a particular case, as they claim to have known it all
along.  [8]  Baruch, a psychology graduate student at the time, saw an
opportunity in psychological research to explain these observations.  [8]

_\(cropped\).jpg)  Daniel Kahneman
 , who researched hindsight bias

In the early 70s, the investigation of  heuristics
 and  biases  was a large area of study
in psychology, led by  Amos Tversky  and
 Daniel Kahneman  .  [8]  Two
heuristics identified by Tversky and Kahneman were of immediate importance in
the development of the hindsight bias; these were the  availability heuristic
 and the 
representativeness heuristic  .  [9]

In an elaboration of these heuristics, Beyth and Fischhoff devised the first
experiment directly testing the hindsight bias.  [10]  They asked participants
to judge the likelihood of several outcomes of  US president
 
Richard Nixon  's upcoming visit to 
Beijing  and  Moscow  .
Some time after president Nixon's return, participants were asked to recall
(or reconstruct) the probabilities they had assigned to each possible outcome,
and their perceptions of the likelihood of each outcome were greater or
overestimated for events that had occurred.  [10]  This study is frequently
referred to in definitions of the hindsight bias, and the title of the paper,
"I knew it would happen," may have contributed to the hindsight bias being
interchangeable with the phrase, "knew-it-all-along phenomenon".

In 1975, Fischhoff developed another method for investigating the hindsight
bias, which was, at the time, referred to as the "creeping determinism
hypothesis".  [2]  This method involves giving participants a short story with
four possible outcomes, one of which they are told is true, and are then asked
to assign the likelihood of each particular outcome.  [2]  Participants
frequently assign a higher likelihood of occurrence to whichever outcome they
have been told is true.  [2]  Remaining relatively unmodified, this method is
still used in psychological and behavioural experiments investigating aspects
of the hindsight bias. Having evolved from the heuristics of Tversky and
Kahneman into the creeping determinism hypothesis and finally into the
hindsight bias as we now know it, the concept has many practical applications
and is still at the forefront of research today. Recent studies involving the
hindsight bias have investigated the effect age has on the bias,  how
hindsight may impact interference and confusion  [ _ clarification needed
 _ ]  , and how it
may affect banking and investment strategies.  [11]  [12]  [13]
See also:  Cold reading
a person's knowledge base. This can lead a person to be unable to retrieve the
initial information because the information cue has been replaced by a cue
that they thought was more fitting. The "best" cue has been replaced, and the
person only remembers the answer that is most likely and believes they thought
this was the best point the whole time.  [22]

Both SARA and RAFT descriptions include a memory trace impairment or 
cognitive distortion  that
is caused by the feedback of information and reconstruction of memory.

CMT is a non-formal theory based on work by many researchers to create a
collaborative process model for hindsight bias that involves event outcomes.
[22]  People try to make sense of an event that has not turned out how they
expected by creating causal reasoning for the starting event conditions. This
can give that person the idea that the event outcome was inevitable and there
was nothing that could take place to prevent it from happening. CMT can be
caused by a discrepancy between a person's expectation of the event and the
reality of an outcome. They consciously want to make sense of what has
happened and selectively retrieve memory that supports the current outcome.
This  causal attribution  can
be motivated by wanting to feel more positive about the outcome and possibly
themselves.  [26]
Latest Videos  16 videos
The phenomenon takes place when two letters in a word (typically called a base
word) switch positions to create a new string of letters that form a new, 
non-word  (typically called a transposed letter
non-word or TL non-word). It is a form of  priming (psychology)
 "Priming \(psychology\)") because the
transposed letter non-word is able to activate the lexical representation of
its base word  [ _ citation needed   _ ]  . A non-word that is created by transposing
letters in a base word is significantly more effective at being a prime for
that base word than would be a prime created by exchanging letters from the
base word with random letters that were not originally in the base word  [ _
citation needed   _ ]  . For example, the TL non-word _stduent_ would be a more
effective prime than would be the non-word _stobent_ for the base word
_student_ .  [ _ citation needed   _ ]
* Johnson R.L., Perea M. (2007). "Transposed-letter effects in reading: Evidence from eye movements and parafoveal preview". _Journal of Experimental Psychology_ . **33** (1): 209–229.  CiteSeerX  "CiteSeerX \(identifier\)")  10.1.1.77.5646  .  doi  "Doi \(identifier\)") :  10.1037/0096-1523.33.1.209  .  PMID  "PMID \(identifier\)")  17311489  .
* Kinoshita, S. & Lupker, S. J., (2003). Chapter: Transposed-letter confusability effects in masked form priming. In M. Perea & S. J. Lupker (Eds.), Masked Priming: The State of the Art (97-120).
* Perea M., Duñabeitia J.A. & Carreiras M. (2007). Transposed-letter priming effects for close vs. distant transpositions. Universitat de València.
In  psychology  , the **transposed letter
effect** is a test of how a word is processed when two letters within the word
are switched.
CNN  —
More than 50 years after the so-called  Zodiac Killer
 first
began terrorizing the streets of Northern California, a code-breaking team is
believed to have finally cracked one of the killer’s mysterious coded messages
sent to the San Francisco Chronicle in 1969.
##  In baboons
The   encrypted message  
has brought decades of speculation, conspiracy theories,0 and guesswork to a
dramatic close.  “It took a lot of computational effort, and it’s been a real
source of frustration for a lot of people,” says computer programmer David
Oranchak in Roanoke, Virginia, who has a background in cryptography and
coordinated the effort.
The FBI  said in a statement
 that the
case remains an ongoing investigation for the bureau’s San Francisco office
and its local law enforcement partners.
Shop Now
View our privacy policy
---
 Greater magic  |
that they were wrong originally by remembering the original memory. This can
lead to  motivated forgetting  .
01:10  \- Source:  CNN
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Economy and business  

 Financial bubbles  are often
heavily biased with hindsight after they burst. After the worldwide dot-com
bubble of the late 1990s and the Great Recession of 2008, many economists have
suggested that conditions that seemed insignificant at the time were
harbingers of future financial collapse. According to economist  Richard
Thaler  , executives and entrepreneurs
are particularly prone to hindsight bias. For example, in one study, more than
75% of entrepreneurs whose startups eventually failed predicted that their
businesses would succeed. However, when asked again after their startup
failed, only 58% said they had originally believed their startup would be a
success.  [60]  Hindsight bias can also contribute to startup failure through
biased performance evaluations and overentry into competition.  [35]
Hindsight-biased performance evaluation is also related to inefficient
delegation.  [61]
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##  Was the Zodiac Killer Found?
38 languages
Want more?
Bias reduction  |

*  Cognitive bias mitigation 
*  Debiasing 
*  Heuristics in judgment and decision-making  "Heuristic \(psychology\)")

* Lists:  General 
* [ Memory ](/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases