Date: 2023-05-01
From: Carlisle, PA (1135.8)

To: Duncannon, PA (1149.5)
Miles today: 13.7

*Quote above from Neil degrasse TysonSo, I have been thinking a bit about statistics. The other day I heard a very experienced thruhiker state unequivocally that he sleeps with his food rather than hanging it or putting it in a canister. He said that he had hiked more than 12,000 miles and never had a problem with a bear. He thinks thruhikers should save the weight and time involved with food protection (the fact that he stated this in front of a large group of new thruhikers caused a bit of consternation). At the same time, every year on the AT there are occasions where habituated bears try to enter tents looking for food (the one above happened 2 days after we passed through the Annapolis Rocks area). How could both be true?Let¢s say there are 3 tent entry incidents on the AT per year (I am guessing - there have already been at least 2 this year). And let¢s say that the number of opportunities for a bear to enter a tent is 12 of the total camper nights on the AT (assuming 12 the people are in tents). I am guessing that total camper nights is in the area of 600,000, so 300,000 chances per year. That means that the odds of having a bear enter your tent on any given night is 3/300,000 or .001%. Now our thruhiker would have spent approximately 800 nights on the trail (12,000 miles/15 mpd). If each of those nights he had a .001% chance of a bear encounter, he would have had a 99.2% (.99999 to the 800th power) chance of never having a bear encounter.So - it appears that while our individual risk might be low, our collective risk is high. Ahem.  Back to my hike. Mother Nature struggled to make up her mind today about the weather. It started out sunny, then cloudy, then scattered rain, then cloudy, then sunny, then hail, then cloudy, then scattered rain¢¦you get the idea. What this means is that I spent most of my hike today taking off and putting back on my layers. The hike itself also had a lot of variability - smooth bits (at first) then pastures, then a transition to rocks. The final approach to Duncannon had a beautiful view from Hawk Rock and then plunged down steeply to town. I found that my legs were a bit ¢dead¢ today - after the efforts of the past two days, I felt much more sluggish on the (relatively minor) ascents in this section. But I treated myself to a Snickers when I arrived in Duncannon, so I am sure that will work its magic. Tonight I am staying at the Doyle hotel, a rite of passage for thruhikers. Originally built in the 1770¢s, it burned down and was rebuilt in 1905, then was renamed the ¢Doyle¢ in the 40¢s. As the AT runs through the middle of town, the Doyle has been hosting thruhikers forever, and is legendary for its burgers, beer, and extremely cheap rooms. Unfortunately, I arrived on a Monday, when the bar is closed, so only get to experience the very atmospheric lodging (which suggest neglible investment since the 1940¢s).   I have seen one hiker I recognize in town (Seadog, who was kind enough to share a Yuengling with me). Pushing forward over the past couple of days has put me slightly ahead of the bubble I was floating in - a shame, as there are several hikers I would like to know better. But given the vagaries of schedules, zero days, and trail legs I am sure I will see some of them again over the next couple of weeks. Off to finish PA this week!