Date: 2015-05-11
From: Damascus, Virginia

To: Damascus, Virginia
Miles today: 16.0
Weather: scattered clouds

Damascus Post #3: Where are all the Hikers?This is an update to a previous post ¢Shelter Injustice¢. For likely reasons that I will explain, the number of hikers (both thru-hikers and section hikers) has dropped dramatically.   We see a lot less hikers than before, both at shelters, and on the trail.   I can now usually use a shelter if I want to, but I now chose not to, because my tent is more cozy, and I have no mouse worries inside my tent.   Here are the likely three reasons we are currently seeing less hikers. I estimate 50% of thru-hikers have quit.   Just a guess. I have no real facts to back that up, other than I see a lot less hikers.   The 8 days of on-again off-again rain and cold weather in GSMNP must have caused some to quit. The hikers behind us are going slower than Brad and I. Conversely, Brad and I are going quite fast, in number of miles per day. As mentioned, I walk slow, but I walk a LOT. I am typically up at 6AM, walking by 7:20AM or so, and walk until 6 or 7PM. That¢s a lot of hours on the trail, but Brad & I can consistently do 16-18 miles a day, or 20 miles if the terrain is flat, as it is OCCASIONALLY.    The slower hikers, those that are still doing less than 12 miles a day, will soon come to realize that they will never make it to Maine by mid-October at that daily rate.   Brad and I are both engineers, know how to analyze data in a spreadsheet, and therefore know what is required to get to Maine by Oct 1st.   Granted, there are still plenty of hikers that go faster and do more miles than we do, but we are doing enough to finish before it is bitterly cold in Maine.   And we will not have to ¢Flip¢.   Those that, for instance, ¢flip¢ from the midpoint to the northern terminus in (say) August), then hile south, will have a harder time completing.   Even though we (were) in a huge batch of thru-hikers, and had to deal with that, it is still easier (IMHO) to do the straight south to north continuous walk, with no flipping. Flipping has it¢s own logistic and psychological complications.   So not many people do it. If hikers are not the the 1000 mile point, Harpers Ferry WV, by July 1st, most will quit, I estimate. 3) OK, there is actually a 3rd BIG reason why we may be seeing less hikers these days, and that is Damascus (where we are now) Trail Days May 15-17.   The younger set intentionally slow up so they can be in Damascus May 14-17 and get rip-roaring drunk every night, as far as Brad & I can tell.   Brad and I have been there-done that in our own youth (sorry. it¢s true!), and have no need to repeat it in our old age.   Damascus Trail Days is by far the biggest festival on the AT.   Thousands will come for it, both current 2015 AT thru hikers, and past ones. All the backpacking vendors will be here.   Lots of music entertainment.   But we have been also advised of theft in the hiker camps.   If Brad and I could do it, we would return to Damascus for 6 hours on Saturday May 16, just to see the event. We could even be in the parade. But the logistics of it are tough, so we are likely to skip it.   In fact, on Wed May 13, we will put as many miles as we can between Damascus and ourselves, just to get somewhat ahead of the post Damascus Trail Days surge.   Anyways, I thought you would be interested to know that the number of hikers have dropped a lot.   But we are still at it.