Date: 2010-02-28
To: From a trickle to a torrent...
Miles today: 0.0

I know for a fact that those of us planning to head out in the coming days and weeks are anxiously reading the journals of those who have already started, looking for clues as to what to expect. Frankly, the news so far has not been very encouraging. Snow, ice, really cold temperatures, blow-downs causing both very slow slogging and the loss of the trail in near-whiteout conditions. Not MY idea of a good time!The home page of this site has a place where they note how many hikers will be starting their hike in the coming week. I recall three weeks ago, there were exactly 3 brave hikers setting out. Last week, it was six. Today I note that it lists 40 hikers beginning their hikes! They say there's safety in numbers. I know that applies to flocks of birds, but it also applies to Through-hikers on the AT. So that should be a comfort to those starting out this week. The shelters will probably still not be full, except on weekends when the over-night hikers come out, but at least there should be SOME company around the campfire. Unless you're an early riser, there will also probably be people ahead of you breaking trail in the event of snow, and -- more important -- people coming along behind you in case you run into any trouble. By the time I start, two weeks from today, I'm expecting the trickle to have turned into a torrent. That's how is was in '05, anyway, and that's how it was last year. I counted nearly 40 of us at Hawk Mountain Shelter that first night, and there were similar crowds for much of the way toward the Smokey's. That makes it rather unlikely for a slower hiker such as myself to plan on getting space in the shelters, but for me that's a moot point, as I always tent. And even with the crowds, I've never failed to find a spot to set up my tent. Still, this year, the weather seems to be more of a concern that in '05 or last year. Last year, those starting March 1 hit a major snow storm, but it didn't last that long, and by the time I started two weeks later, everything was fine. I'm trying to remain optimistic this year, but given what an unusual winter it's already been, I'm prepared for the worst. On the other hand, I know that time is on my side. Two weeks makes a difference as the ol' planet keeps on leaning in the right direction on it's path around the sun. The days are inexorably longer, and the greater amount of sun each day will eventually lead to spring and then summer. Right now, I would guess that trails in the Smokey's may be a bit hazardous, but the fact is I don't expect to arrive in Fontana Dam until March 31, which is more than four weeks from now. That's a month closer to spring, right? So I'm going to be optimistic about the weather for the early days of my hike this year. I don't want to jinx things by saying it couldn't be as bad as last year, but the reality is that we had rainy, drizzly, overcast days for all but four in the first month on the trail. It didn't both me all that much, simply because I was so very happy to be hiking north again, but it sure got to some of my companions. I'll be even happier to be back out there this year, so I just don't expect the weather to impact on my mood or my spirits. Not gonna' happen. If there's snow, that will slow me down, that's for sure, but it wont' stop me, and it will just mean I'll get to spend more time with my new friends. We'll just be sitting around the all-you-can-eat buffet at some unfortunate restaurant instead of around a campfire at some shelter. It's all good. Two weeks from today, I head north!!!