Date: 2011-05-26
To: Bag of Neuroses
Miles today: 0.0

I will probably not make it. I will likely not start the AT on Springer and finish on the top of Katadin, as I intend to do. It is true. Eighty percent of people who begin a through-hike don¢t complete it. So, assuming I represent a ¢normal¢ or ¢average¢ starter intending to go all the way, I must conclude that there is a mere 1 in 5 chance I¢ll finish. Bummer.Let¢s set statistics and probability aside, though. Through my lens, no one who begins a through-hike of the Appalachian Trail in the first place can be called a failure, regardless of the result. They all start the thing knowing that it is highly unlikely they¢ll make it, but they do it anyway. That takes a special person. Most people won¢t willingly enter into such a project. The stakes are too high. Through-hikers are invested. This isn¢t like buying a lottery ticket, however. That¢s a far different kind of low probability insanity. No. Folks who begin the long walk pour tears, treasure and time into the thing¢¦and at surprisingly high levels. They sacrifice. I admire anyone who takes on the AT. I have for decades. I¢ve been a faithful reader of TJ for the past several years and am consistently struck with the diversity of perspectives, backgrounds, motives, challenges, insights, epiphanies, and disappointments that are reflected upon in there. It¢s a rich tapestry of humanity. And it makes me happy that in 9 months; I will be able to count myself one small thread within it.But, humans are flawed creatures. Things can go wrong within them, around them, and through them. The wheels can come off an outing in many ways. I remember climbing Mt. Rainier in 2006, and having my expedition come close to ending due to a single failed 20 cent clip on my pack. I didn¢t bring spares. Rookie mistake. Luckily our guide had one and we had a successful summit. Shit happens.I hope that introspection, reflection, and self-honesty can help identify potential show-stoppers and allow me to come up with some strategies to dampen, if not eliminate, their effects. So, I brainstormed a bit. Being simple, I decided to organize my potential problems into two groups: Mental and Physical. I came up with (too) many reasons the trip could be hobbled or ended. Then I winnowed those down to a Top 6 list of Physical Afflictions and Mental States that keep me up at night. Here they are, ranked in each case from most to least concern: Mental 1.        Family Stressors. I see this one as having the highest likelihood of pulling me off the trail. My family will be doing very well when I leave for Springer. My oldest son will be in college, the two littler ones will be in school in Vermont, my wife will also be in Vermont keeping those home fires burning, gardening, working, and missing me desperately. My Mom will be in Connecticut, working, walking, entertaining, and happily carrying on with her rich life. All seems good. The problem is that I am a pathological fretter, a worrier of the highest order, especially when it involves family. I worry about things even more when I am physically away from them. I can easily create crisis when there is none. I don¢t have a foolproof way of dealing with this. Part of the solution though, is to acknowledge it is there. Check. Done. Now, what? Well, I could set some ground rules for communications with my family when I am gone. They all know I¢m the way I am, and that I¢ll come rocketing back if I think I am needed to resolve some issue, or fix some situation. Thus, the rule would be to not discuss issues that I could construe, rationalize, or otherwise morph into some reason to come home. Maybe not exactly honest and transparent communication, but it could work. 2.        Fatigue. I expect that the hike will begin with vigor, excitement, and anticipation of the next day¢s wonders: what will I see, who will I meet, what will I eat, what new insights will be revealed? But I don¢t think that will last. After a while that initial vibe will wear off, and I¢ll get into a routine. This routine has the potential to just run you down. Hike 10 hours, set-up camp, eat too few calories, sleep poorly, break camp, hike 10 hours, and repeat. I can see this as slowly sapping physical and mental energy over time. The pervasive weariness could become overbearing. How do you protect yourself from this? Set short-term goals. Could be mail drops, town stays, zero days, or meeting points with fellow hikers, friends, or family. The sheer length of the trail and expected duration of the hike can be intimidating. Maybe focusing on the week you are in and where you will be in 7 days will be better than to focus on Katadin. Achieving short term goals will re-energize, freshen, and motivate.3.        Boredom. Connected to #2 above.   I guess the boredom I¢m talking about is a form of mental fatigue, but less acute. I fear that after getting over the initial crest of coolness and bright eyes, there may be a dulling sameness to each day. Today¢s ups blend into yesterday¢s ups and foreshadow tomorrow¢s. The tunnel is green today, as it was yesterday, and as it will be tomorrow. Could get old. 4.        Misanthropy. Through-hiking the AT is a notoriously social undertaking. This is good, and I look forward to that aspect of the hike almost as much as I do the silences. But what if I don¢t gel with the pace group I find myself with?   Though I see everyone who starts this thing as a special character, it doesn¢t mean they will get along with me or I with them. Certain attitudes and behaviors will simply cause me to shut people out, to put them on the margin of my hike. My solution? Suck it up and HYOH.5.        Fear. Darkness and solitude do crazy things to the mind. Imagination goes hyperactive. Phantom sounds, signs and shadows tease. Bears, trolls and murderers that aren¢t there in flesh are there in idea. Just like when we were kids. All that psychological trash is still there in us, just dormant. I wonder if this journey will wake it all up.6.        Madness. Not a major concern, just cool to put on the list. I¢m sure psychotic breaks are not unknown on the trail.Physical1.        Bad Back. This one scares me. In 1989 I injured my lower back while lifting a television. A simple lift, knife-like pain, and when I regained consciousness I was on a backboard being loaded into an ambulance to be taken to Ft. Ord., CA. Though still not sure what it was, I do know that I have some sort of a back ¢event¢ every couple of years. There is no way I can predict when it will happen or what will cause it. It could be bending over to tie a shoe, lifting something, or twisting/stretching in my sleep. Frustrating. It is never as bad as the initial red hot lumbar lance, but they definitely take me out of commission for weeks. My plan on this one is to use a thicker (and heavier) sleep pad, blast my core and lower back during physical training, and hope it won¢t occur.2.        Breaks & Sprains. Over millions of footsteps I will encounter roots, rocks, stumps, vines, and holes too numerous to count. I will trip. I will fall. I hope that when I do, I don¢t break anything. As part of preparation I will continue my off-road running regimen. Trail running really helps with balance, misstep recovery and muscular resilience. That and appropriate mental focus while on the trail will hopefully serve me well.3.        Illness. Just getting sick. This could happen from drinking bad water, eating bad food, or just picking up a virus in town or on the trail. This is a hard one to control for. I will be treating my water, ensuring good hygiene, especially while handling food, and staying away from people with plague. Common sense.4.        Blisters. I hate these. I was climbing Weissmeis in the Austrian Alps in ¢07. I felt quite a bit of movement in my new boots. Too much. By the time we got to the top, my Achilles was rubbed raw. I had a half dollar-sized weeping, seeping, wide open blister just sitting there waiting for attention. I limped down the mountain, treated it, and was able to resume some climbing about three days later. I was pissed and it hurt like hell. What a waste of time. I plan to treat hotspots as soon as they are warmspots, but before any of that I will ensure that my shoes fit correctly and that they have a good number of miles on them before I even begin.   5.        Wildlife. Bears don¢t bother me much. Or moose, wild pigs or deer. Snakes however, give me pause. I actually love snakes. I think that they are some of the coolest beasts on Earth. I just worry that, being the airhead I am; I could get lost in some dreamworld and inadvertently step on a sunning rattler resulting in an inevitably fatal bite to the lower leg. I think I have to maintain my focus when in snake country, talk with other hikers and listen to their reports, and possibly work on my charming skills. Also not be so paranoid. 6.        Lack of Fitness. This one could surprise me. I plan on being very fit when I start. I run and cross-train regularly, will be at marathon-level cardio when I begin the AT, and will have done some good mountain distance hiking with AT-weight gear on. It is the intangible that bothers me. What if I missed something? Will I be able to accomplish the 17-20 mile days I intend? Will my body be up for that or will it just give up at some point? I hope it works well.So, there you have it. These are my concerns. I hope it doesn¢t come off as overly negative, just honest. Have no doubt, I intend to finish. I figure that the more I can think through the weak spots of my plan, the better my chances.