Why egg prices are still going up | CNN Business

New York CNN Business —

Several grocery items have gotten more expensive this year. But nothing comes close to the rise in egg prices.

In the year through November, not adjusted for seasonal swings, egg prices jumped 49%, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Since early this year, a deadly avian flu has been reducing poultry flocks — specifically turkeys and egg-laying hens. That’s one reason for the unrelenting increase in prices. But the situation has been exacerbated by elevated feed and energy costs for producers, in addition to high demand in the supermarket.

Experts think that the peak has passed, but until these conditions improve, expect to pay more for eggs in the grocery store.

Wholesale prices hit a record

Avian flu has been a problem in the US for several months now, but in recent weeks wholesale prices have been hitting records.

As of last week, “prices have been escalating for nine consecutive weeks… setting new record highs on a daily basis since the week of Thanksgiving,” said Karyn Rispoli, editor of the Egg Price Current for Urner Barry, which offers food market data.

On Friday, Midwest large eggs, the benchmark for eggs sold in their shells, hit $5.46 per dozen, Rispoli said, citing Urner Barry’s data. This time last year, Urner Berry’s data shows, that price was around $1.70.

Eggs have gotten much more expensive this year. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

One reason for the increase? Not enough supply.

“There’s simply not been enough production to support the incredibly strong retail demand we’ve seen this year,” Rispoli said. Supply has been constrained by the deadly bird flu.

The current outbreak of Highly-Pathogenic Avian Influenza started in the US around February, and has persisted throughout the year. The last major bird flu outbreak in the United States was in 2015. But that one was contained by June of that year, noted Brian Earnest, lead economist for animal protein in CoBank.

“This year, we’ve continued to see flock depopulations throughout the entire year, and there’s an expectation that we’ll continue to see it into 2023,” he said, noting that he expects “we’re going to see a tight supply situation and elevated pricing environment moving forward.”

About 60 million birds are gone because of the disease so far, according to the USDA. Of those, about 43 million are egg-laying hens, according to USDA data provided by the American Egg Board, a farmer-funded group which markets eggs.

Still, farmers have been able to moderate the losses. “Our producers learned a lot of hard lessons from 2015,” said Emily Metz, CEO of the American Egg Board. Some farmers have been able to repopulate their flocks, decreasing the net impact on flock sizes and egg supplies. As of early December, there were about 308 million hens laying eggs for consumption, down from about 328 million in December 2021, according to the USDA.

The supply squeeze isn’t the only thing contributing to higher egg prices, said Metz. Higher fuel, feed and other producer cost are also driving up wholesale prices, she said. And then there’s that high demand for eggs, which spikes this time of year.

Egg demand remains high

People buy more eggs around the holidays, when they’re baking and cooking more, and eating breakfast at home more often.

Wholesale prices tend to go up in the winter because of those habits, noted Earnest. That has “brought about a very strong market condition.”

Year-round demand for eggs has also also been strong.

Even while prices have soared, sales of eggs have only ticked down about 2% by unit in retail in the year through December 4th, according to data from IRI, a market research firm.

Shoppers have been accepting high prices at the grocery store as they pull back on restaurant visits. And even though eggs have gotten more expensive, they still cost less than other proteins.

A deadly avian flu has led to the death of millions of poultry this year. Mario Tama/Getty Images

As that peak holiday demand passes, wholesale prices are expected to fall.

“Based on current trade values and market conditions, it appears that the market may have finally reached its peak,” said Rispoli. Friday’s wholesale prices were the same as Thursday’s, the first time pricing held steady since October, she said.

“Several suppliers have reported to us… that they are seeing their orders slow,” in the week leading up to Christmas, she added. By then, “most grocers have pulled in whatever inventory they’ll need for the holidays.”

It might take another three to six months for prices to moderate in retail, said KK Davey, president of thought leadership at IRI and NPD, and even longer for prices to come down to what they were last year.

“It may take some more time,” he said.

Food prices are still soaring. Here's what's getting more expensive ...

New York CNN Business —

Inflation may be slowing, but food prices are still through the roof.

Food costs spiked 11.4% over the past year, the largest annual increase since May 1979, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Americans browsing the supermarket aisle will notice most food items are far more expensive than they were a year ago. Egg prices soared 39.8%, while flour got 23.3% more expensive. Milk rose 17% and the price of bread jumped 16.2%.

Meat and poultry also grew costlier. Chicken prices jumped 16.6%, while meats rose 6.7% and pork increased 6.8%. Fruits and vegetables together are up 9.4%.

Overall, grocery prices jumped 13.5% and restaurant menu prices increased 8%.

Egg prices have soared over the past year. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Why there’s no relief at the grocery store

The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in an effort to tame inflation, but the central bank says that food prices are largely out of its control.

That’s because food prices are affected by global events, such as the war in Ukraine, which affects the costs of wheat and other commodities. Prices also reflect the impact of natural disasters like crop-killing droughts and diseases such as avian flu, which has constrained the supply of eggs and turkeys.

Plus, it takes time for changes, such as decreases in ingredient prices, to funnel down to consumers. That means that relief from the surge grocery prices could lag declines in other areas.

And demand for food isn’t flexible — consumers may be able to skimp on other items, such as clothing or gasoline, but they have to eat. Even so, shoppers are increasingly making changes to their diets and shopping habits to cope with rising costs.

People are pulling back on certain items. Sales of frozen dinners and entrees have fallen about 11% by volume in August compared to the year prior, according to a report this week from IRI, a market research company. Cookie volumes and volumes of refrigerated juices fell nearly 9% and about 8%, respectively, in that period. Lower-income households in particular are skipping items like juice, snacks and candy.

Recently, Applebee’s and IHOP have reported an uptick in higher-income customers, who may be trading down from more expensive restaurants. And Tyson (TSN) has noticed higher demand for chicken as shoppers buy fewer pricey steaks.

What got more expensive

The seasonally adjusted prices of most grocery items ticked up from July to August, but there were some standouts.

Margarine spiked the most, up 7.3%. Eggs were 2.9% more expensive and sugar was 2.4% higher, while flour and bread edged up 2.2%. Canned fruit prices rose 3.4% while fresh vegetables got 1.2% pricier.

Hot dog prices jumped 4.9%, while ham was up 1.3% and turkey rose 2.2%.

Some meat prices fell, however. Bacon was .5% less expensive, while the price of pork roasts, steaks and ribs fell 1.9%.

And some fruit prices moderated as well, with apples getting 2.3% cheaper and citrus fruits falling 1.6%.

Fact check: Egg prices are rising nationwide

The claim: USDA is predicting egg prices will be $12 a dozen by fall 2022

A highly contagious bird flu outbreak is reducing the U.S. chicken flock and driving up egg prices nationwide, according to the Department of Agriculture.

But not to the extent some social media users have suggested.

A June 7 Facebook post claims the "USDA is predicting egg prices will be $12 a dozen by Fall 2022."

The post accrued more than 100 shares in a week. Many other versions of this post have appeared on Facebook and Twitter.

But this is nowhere close to true. The USDA has not predicted that a dozen eggs will cost $12 by fall.

USA TODAY reached out to several users who shared the post for comment.

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USDA did not predict $12 egg prices

The USDA has not predicted egg prices will be $12 a dozen by fall 2022, Jennifer Smits, director of communications for the USDA's Economic Research Service, told USA TODAY.

The research service – the division of USDA that predicts and follows agriculture and food trends – does not even forecast specific retail egg prices, Smits said. The agency does forecast wholesale egg prices, which are projected to be $1.70 per dozen in the fourth quarter of 2022.

As of June 10 , the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs in the U.S. was $2.86, according to Federal Reserve economic data.

Egg prices have risen this year because of an inconsistent supply of eggs. For example, the overall inventory of shell eggs decreased by 4% and the national inventory of large eggs was down 7%, according to a June 10 USDA Egg Market Overview.

Prices are rising on more than just eggs. Food prices in the Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, increased 1% from March 2022 to April 2022, and food prices in April were 9.4% higher than they were a year earlier, according to the USDA.

Fact check:Screenshot of purported homophobic dog story is fabricated

Our rating: False

Based on our research, we rate FALSE the claim that the USDA is predicting that a dozen eggs will cost $12 by fall 2022. The USDA did not predict eggs would rise to that price by fall. Currently, the department is forecasting a dozen wholesale eggs will cost $1.70 by the fourth quarter of 2022. The agency does not specifically forecast retail prices.

Our fact-check sources:

Thank you for supporting our journalism. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here.

Our fact-check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook.

Eggs, cereal, milk prices soar: How much costs have gone up in past ...

If a bowl of cereal topped with fruit is part of your morning routine, expect to pay more for it. All the ingredients -- cereal, fruit, and milk -- are on the rise.

Consumers are paying 11% morefor overall food items than they did a year ago, according to the monthly Consumer Price Index report, released Tuesday morning.

The rise in the cost of food at home, or groceries, is still in the double-digit range, rising 13.5% from a year ago. It's the largest 12-month increase since March 1979. The cost of cereal and other cereal products is up more than 17% from this time last year. Love eggs? The price for eggs is up nearly 40% from last August, mostly due to an avian flu outbreak.

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While overall inflation moderated in August as expected, the report said, there was no relief in food prices, according to Tuesday's Consumer Price Index report from the labor department.

Overall inflation is still hot as prices increased 8.3% from a year ago. The increase is smaller than July's 8.5% and June's 9.1% increase.

But there was no relief for the cost of groceries and dining out, the report showed.

All six grocery categories tracked showed increases from July and year-over-year increases, ranging from 9.4% for fruits and vegetables to 16.2% for dairy and related products.

And there is no relief in dining out as those prices are up 8% from a year ago.

A sample of some price increases from August 2021 to August 2022

Dairy and related products: +16.2%

+16.2% Cereals and bakery: +16.4%%.

+16.4%%. Eggs: +39.8%.

+39.8%. Flour: +23.3%.

+23.3%. Butter and margarine: Up 29.3%.

And it's likely to get worse before it gets better, the report said. Americans can expect to continue paying more for almost all food items, according to the USDA's Food Prices Outlook for 2022, whether you cook meals at home, dine out or buy food elsewhere. Food at home prices, the cost of groceries, will increase 10%-11% in 2022, the agency predicted. The cost of dining out is expected to increase 6.5%-7.5%.

The CPI reflects changes in prices for certain goods and services by consumers. Spending patterns cover urban consumers, urban wage earners, and clerical workers in urban or metropolitan areas.

Contact Detroit Free Press food writer Susan Selasky and send food and restaurant news to: sselasky@freepress.com. Follow @SusanMariecooks on Twitter.

Support local journalism and become a digital subscriber to the Free Press.

Food prices are skyrocketing, and it's not just because of inflation ...

New York CNN Business —

Inflation may be slowing overall, but food prices are still sky-high.

Over the last 12 months, grocery prices soared 13.1% — the largest annual increase since the year ending in March 1979, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.

The prices of nearly every grocery item have ballooned over the past year.

The cost of eggs has soared 38%, and prices for other goods have also jumped: Flour is up 22.7%, chicken 17.6%, milk 15.6%, ground beef 9.7% and bacon 9.2%. Fruits and vegetables got 9.3% more expensive.

Grocery items are still going up. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

A number of factors have contributed to the rise in food costs: A deadly avian flu has meant fewer eggs in the United States, a severe drought in Brazil slashed coffee crops and the war in Ukraine led to a spike in wheat prices in the spring.

While commodity prices are falling, it will take time before those lower costs pass through to consumers. Plus, plenty of other costs for producers — such as fuel, labor and packaging — have also been high.

And as supply has been disrupted, demand has grown.

Demand for groceries grows

Unlike discretionary items, consumers can’t simply stop buying food when prices rise. They may, however, opt for less expensive options. Producers, grocers and restaurant operators have noted that consumers are indeed trading down — swapping out higher-priced items for more affordable ones.

Earlier this week, Tyson (TSN) said demand for steak is falling while interest in chicken is rising. Wendy’s (WEN) traffic has been hit because some customers are deciding to pack lunches or eat breakfast at home, CEO Todd Penegor said during a post-earnings analyst call Wednesday.

Penegor added that about 82% of meals were eaten at home pre-pandemic, but that figure jumped three percentage points since then and has stayed there.

“The consumer has been a little more strapped, so there’s a few more meals prepared at home,” Penegor said. “Inflation has been high, so net disposable income has been a little bit pinched.”

Restaurants have also been raising prices, but at a slower clip: In the 12-month period through July, menu prices rose 7.6%, less than overall inflation.

Plus, food prices are largely unaffected by current government efforts to curtail spiraling costs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged as much during a Senate Banking Committee hearing in June, saying that raising interest rates to fight inflation wouldn’t lower food prices.

The Fed believes that “food and energy are influenced by global commodity prices in a way that tells them, ‘Hey, these items aren’t really directly under your control,’” noted Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America Global Research.

Essentially, the thinking is this: Because the US can’t control international factors such as the war in Ukraine and higher shipping costs, it can’t fully control domestic food prices.

What’s more, the US government doesn’t have a stockpile of food as it does of oil, noted Rob Fox, director of the knowledge exchange division at CoBank, which provides financial services to agribusinesses.

“There’s no ability for the government to release extra stalks of wheat and corn and cheese and so on,” Fox said.

What got more expensive in June

The result has been steadily higher prices in the grocery aisle, with some items seeing larger month over month spikes than others.

In July, adjusted for seasonal swings, egg prices popped 4.3% compared to June. Coffee and peanut butter each got 3.5% more expensive. Flour rose 3.2% and bread prices went up 2.8%. Cheese jumped 2%, while chicken got 1.4% pricier.

There was some relief, however. Citrus fell 3.2%, and whole milk dropped 1.4%. Uncooked beef roasts fell 1.3%, and uncooked steaks fell 1.1%. Ham got 1% cheaper.

The biggest decline was in hot dog prices, which dropped 6.1%.

'Egg-scuse me, this carton is how much?' Here's why egg prices are ...

Shoppers across the nation have been scrambling for months to keep up with soaring egg prices.

Prices continue to skyrocket – up 60% in December from a year earlier. Last year, the average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs in the U.S. was $1.93 in January. By December, when egg demand peaked, the price surged to $4.25.

The high prices prompted a "He went to Kroger" meme, with an egg in place of an engagement ring in the "He went to Jared" jewelry advertisement.

Here's when we can expect egg prices to drop and what we can do in the meantime.

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Will egg prices go down?:Inside perfect storm behind skyrocketing costs

How much do eggs cost?

The price of eggs jumped 11% in December from the month before, according to Consumer Price Index data. The average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs in December hit $4.25, up from $1.79 the year before, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Why are eggs so expensive?

Three reasons: an increase in holiday demand, higher production costs for farmers, and an outbreak of bird flu, a highly contagious virus that can be fatal to poultry such as chickens and turkeys.

As of December, more than 43 million egg-laying hens were lost since the outbreak began in February 2022, according to the to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The virus has led to the deaths of more than 57 million birds in hundreds of commercial and backyard flocks across 47 states since February, surpassing the 50 million birds lost in the 2015 avian influenza outbreak, according to the USDA.

"We have seen infections get into a flock, where they look perfectly fine one day, and then the next day they're all dead," said Gregory Martin, a poultry educator at Penn State Extension. "That's how quick this thing moves. And so the losses are very, very severe."

Martin said bird flu is not a foodborne illness, so poultry and eggs found in grocery stores are safe to eat.

Avian influenza:Iowa egg facility reports bird flu outbreak that will require killing 1.1 million hens

Why are eggs in short supply?

States like Colorado and California have reported empty egg shelves at grocery stores. Meanwhile, consumers in states like Massachusetts and Arizona have resorted to raising their own chickens.

"We are seeing some very, very temporary, isolated and hyperlocal shortages," said Emily Metz, CEO of the trade group American Egg Board. "We have not seen widespread shortages. We have not seen panic buying or anything like that."

Will egg prices go down?

When egg prices will drop is hard to predict and depends on both supply and demand, said Maro Ibarburu, associate scientist at the Egg Industry Center at Iowa State University.

"In the absence of new cases (of avian influenza), the production of eggs will gradually increase over the next several months, and that should help with the market," Ibarburu said. "But the demand is also an important factor."

For now, you can save money by clipping coupons and comparing deals online to shop for the lowest price, according to personal finance service The Ascent.

Can I freeze eggs in the shell?

Eggs should not be frozen in their shells, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

To freeze eggs, beat yolks and whites together. You also can freeze egg whites and yolks separately, though whites freeze better than yolks, the USDA says.

"To freeze yolks, mix four yolks with a pinch of salt and one and half teaspoons of sugar or corn syrup," the USDA says.

Make sure to use your frozen eggs within a year.

Eggs are up 50% from last year. How much is inflation hitting your ...

Loading up on eggnog, cookies and other holiday favorites is going to cost more this year.

While inflation is starting to slow, food prices are still far above where they were for the 2021 holiday season. Grocery prices in November were up 12% year-over-year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"There's just been that upwelling of prices across the board," said Michael Swanson, lead economist for Wells Fargo. "So it's going to be more expensive, but there are some bright spots that are developing for some of the more festive foods."

How much has the price of food increased in 2022?

Common ingredients and holiday favorites are costing more this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here's how much prices for some holiday staples have gone up from November 2021 to November 2022:

Flour: 25%

Bread: 16%

Cookies: 19%

Crackers: 20%

Pies, tarts and turnovers: 19%

Ham: 8%

Uncooked poultry, including turkey: 18%

Eggs: 49%

Milk: 15%

Potatoes: 16%

Sugar and sweets: 13%

Butter: 27%

Families can expect to spend about 16% more to feed their families during the holidays compared with last year, according to a report from the market research firm Datasembly.

The findings were based on the prices for 13 popular holiday grocery items – including eggnog, green beans and a bone-in spiral-cut ham – at Albertsons, Kroger, Target and Walmart. This year's increase is double the price difference Datasembly calculated in 2021.

How can I save money on holiday shopping?

Inflation is still hitting U.S. consumers' wallets, but Wells Fargo's Swanson noted that there is some good news from the Bureau of Labor Statistic's latest consumer price index report.

“There are some of those holiday favorites that are actually starting to show some pretty decent declines,” he said.

Fresh fish and seafood, beef, pork ribs and pork roasts are just some examples of grocery store items that saw price drops between October and November.

How to save money on holiday dinners:'You don't need to make a butter board'

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For shoppers looking to cut costs this holiday season, Swanson suggests taking the time to shop around for the best deals.

“Give yourself time to shop two or three stores to see which ones really are offering you the best bargain, because one thing is very, very certain: It’s not uniform. It's not like there's a uniform price for anything out there in the market. If you shop around, you'd be surprised how wide the spread could be at certain items,” he said.

Other tips reported by USA TODAY include:

Shopping store brands and discount grocers.

Buying in bulk at Costco, Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale.

Using cash-back apps and rewards programs like Ibotta and Fetch Rewards.

Dig Deeper

You can follow USA TODAY reporter Bailey Schulz on Twitter @bailey_schulz and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter here for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday.

CPI January 2023 is 6.4%, core inflation rose

Inflation eased for the seventh straight month in January, helped by lower costs for used vehicles and offering some relief to consumers struggling with high prices over the past year.

Consumer price index data released on Tuesday showed that prices for a range of goods and services rose by 6.4% over the past 12 months, down slightly from an annual rate of 6.5% in December and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

On a month-by-month basis, however, prices increased by 0.5% in January compared with a slower gain of 0.1% in December. The acceleration was driven by shelter costs.

Americans have been struggling with soaring prices since last year, resulting in a decline in the real value of their income despite historic wage increases. High inflation has also amplified the risk of a recession.

The inflation data follows last month’s surprisingly strong labor report, which showed that employers added 517,000 jobs, well above expectations and raising concerns that the economy remains too hot and could keep prices at elevated levels for too long.

The latest index news "underscores the challenges faced by the Fed," said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult. "Inflation may have peaked, but it’s not showing signs of rapidly returning" to the Fed's 2% inflation target.

To get there, the Fed will likely have to continue hiking rates higher and longer than many anticipated.

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Core consumer price index

Core consumer price index, a measure of inflation that strips away volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% for the second month in a row. That put the annual core index inflation rate at 5.6%.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said the rise in core consumer price index last month isn't "cause for concern" since the big jump in shelter prices could mean there will be smaller increases in coming months.

Daco predicts annual inflation will fall to 2.3% by the end of the year. Core inflation, he predicts, will fall to 2.8% by then.

Housing costs drove inflation higher

Rising shelter costs were the biggest contributor to rising inflation last month and year, accounting for half of the 0.5% monthly increase in prices and 60% of the 6.4% annual inflation rate, the Labor Department said. Shelter costs rose by 0.7% last month and are up 7.9% from a year ago.

“Home prices rose much faster than incomes over the past three years,” said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant. “The Fed’s rate increases, which have led to higher mortgage rates, have made the cost of buying a home even more costly.”

What’s different about the index in January?

New changes went into effect last month to adjust for shifting consumer spending patterns. By design, the index takes into account price increases for more than 200 categories as well as the portion of the typical Americans’ budget they take up.

This is done so that the overall index reflects the proportional price changes consumers experience. Without taking consumers’ budgets into account the 70% increase in the price for a carton of eggs from a year ago could disproportionately skew the overarching inflation data.

'Egg-scuse me, this carton is how much?':Here's why egg prices are soaring across the US

Fed's next move:Powell says strong jobs report shows that more Fed rate hikes could be needed to lower inflation

Ahead of January’s index release the Bureau of Labor Statistics, published new weights for certain categories, a process it undergoes every two years. Moving forward, it will update the weights every year.

With the new changes, housing accounts for 44.4% of the index, up from 42.4%. That reflects an increase in weight for shelter to 34.4% from 33.3% and rent, also known as owners’ equivalent rent, which rose to 25.4% from 24.3%.

“At the moment, OER is still running hot so a higher weight will likely keep some upward pressure on core CPI in the near term,” said Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid.

Meanwhile, food weight fell to 13.5% from 13.9%.

Additionally, prior to Tuesday's release, the BLS published new annual calculations to correct price changes that correspond to seasonal demand. The changes resulted in revisions to previously reported index data.

For instance, the initial index report for December found that consumer prices declined by 0.1% from November. However, revised data released last week found that prices actually rose by 0.1% in December. It also found that prices rose by 0.2% in November versus the previously reported 0.1% increase.

The new weighting system combined with the new seasonal calculations played a role in the minimal deacceleration for prices over the past 12 months from December to January, said Raymond James' chief economist Eugenio Aleman.

S&P 500

Stock indiceended mostly lower on Tuesday following the report's release. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 eased while the Nasdaq Composite rose slightly. The S&P 500, the broadcast gauge of stocks, finished down 1.2 points or 0.03%.

10-year Treasury

Yields for 10-year Treasury notes climbed after the report was released. They're trading above 3.7%, near the highs for the month.

What January’s inflation data means for the Fed

Although the Federal Reserve doesn’t reconvene for another month, Tuesday’s index report combined with the latest jobs report will likely lead the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year.

The report likely won’t give the Fed enough confidence that inflation will continue to ease on its own for it to stop raising interest rates, said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.

"Recent data have sent conflicting signals," he said, noting that the latest jobs report casts the economy in a positive light as opposed to recent layoffs announcements and consumer spending and industrial production data. "The Fed will look at the balance of the signal from these data in deciding how much more to raise interest rates this year."

President Biden reacts

President Joe Biden celebrated the inflation data saying it's "good news for families and businesses across the country." He acknowledged that there's "more work to do" to get prices down and that there "could be setbacks along the way."

When is the next inflation report?

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index comes out on Feb. 24. The next consumer price index report is due on March 14.

Medora Lee contributed to this report.

Elisabeth Buchwald is a personal finance and markets correspondent for USA TODAY. You can follow her on Twitter @BuchElisabeth and sign up for our Daily Money newsletter here

Get ready to spend more at the grocery store. Food prices expected ...

If you think paying $10 for a pound of bacon or $6 for a pound of butter is bad, it's about to get more expensive.

Pretty soon, you'll be paying even more for just about everything when it comes to eating in or dining out, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

"All food prices are now predicted to increase," the USDA's Food Prices Outlook for 2022 March report said.

The increases are the highest in decades as grocery prices got more expensive and rose nearly 9% for the year.

The USDA's Economic Research Service updated its March report predicting a 4.5%-5% rise in food prices this year. Eating out will see the highest increase, 5.5%-6.5%, the report said.

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Grocery prices impacted by inflation

Grocery prices are expected to rise between 3% and 4% in the coming months. And that's on top of all the other increases consumers faced over the past several months.

No food category, the USDA said, decreased in price in 2021. And now the USDA revised its forecast upward for all food categories, including meats, poultry, eggs, dairy products, fats and oils, and more. The only category that the USDA revised downward was fresh vegetables.

Beef and veal had the largest increase and fresh vegetables the smallest. Prices for wholesale beef are predicted to increase between 4% and 7%.

Contributing to the higher retail poultry and egg prices, the report said, is avian influenza. Prices for poultry are predicted to increase by 6% to 7% and 2.5%-3.5% for eggs.

"An ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza could contribute to poultry and egg price increases through reduced supply or decrease prices through lowered international demand for U.S. poultry products or eggs," according to the report.

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Strong demand for dairy products is driving up retail prices. The USDA's outlook in 2022 for dairy predicts a 4% to 5% increase.

Also putting pressure on food prices is Russia's invasion of Ukraine and increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

"The impacts of the conflict in Ukraine and the recent increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve are expected to put upward and downward pressures on food prices, respectively. The situations will be closely monitored to assess the net impacts of these concurrent events on food prices as they unfold," the report said.

Inflation came in at 7.9% for the last 12 months — the highest year-over-year increase since April 1981, according to February's U.S. Consumer Price Index, released in March.

Follow Susan Selasky on Twitter: @SusanMariecooks.

High egg prices affecting you? Share your thoughts with USA TODAY

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Fact check: False claim that egg prices have risen 700%

The claim: Food prices have gone up 7% and egg prices have gone up 700%

A Jan. 12 Instagram post (direct link, archive link) features two pictures of a man and a woman with overlaid text showing a supposed conversation.

"The gov says food inflation is 7%," read the first panel.

The next says, "Ask them how that’s possible when eggs have gone up 700% & every single thing I buy has gone up OVER 7%."

The post garnered more than 500 likes in a week. Similar versions of the claim have been shared on Facebook.

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Our rating: False

The post exaggerates the rate at which egg prices have risen. In the last year, food prices have risen more than 10%, while egg prices have risen nearly 60%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The post also omits critical other reasons why egg prices have risen.

Post exaggerates egg price increases

Though egg prices have steadily risen in the last year, it hasn't been at the rate the post claims.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported egg prices rose 137% in the last year, from $1.79 per dozen in December 2021 to $4.25 in December 2022.

This rapid price change isn't only a result of inflation, though. There has also been an increase in holiday demand, higher production costs for farmers and an outbreak of bird flu, according to the Department of Agriculture.

"U.S. egg inventories were 29% lower in the final week of December 2022 than at the beginning of the year," the department said in a recent statement. "By the end of December, more than 43 million egg-laying hens were lost to the disease itself or to depopulation since the outbreak began in February 2022."

Wholesale prices are expected to decrease going forward, however, as the holiday season passes and the population of egg-laying hens recovers, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Fact check: Inflation at grocery stores hits generational high, but post overstates increase

Food prices overall increased by 10.4% from December 2021 to December 2022, according to the price index. That's slightly above the 7% figure cited in the social media post.

Overall inflation was 6.5% in that span.

USA TODAY reached out to the user who shared the post for comment.

This claim has been debunked by PolitiFact as well.

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Ohio train derailment: FEMA headed to East Palestine; clinic to open

Weeks after a train carrying hazardous materials derailed near the Ohio-Pennsylvania border, FEMA said it will deploy federal resources to the area in the wake of evacuations and amid lingering health concerns.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced Friday the Federal Emergency Management Agency will send a team to East Palestine. A few days earlier he said the agency deemed the state ineligible for the aid because it is "most typically involved with disasters where there is tremendous home or property damage."

FEMA will send a senior response official and an incident management team to East Palestine.

Following the derailment, officials decided to do a controlled release of the vinyl chloride, allowing it to burn to prevent an explosion. The burn caused toxic fumes to be released into the area, which alarmed residents about possible long-term effects after the explosion.

Still, authorities say testing of air and water has not detected anything of concern.

Meanwhile, experts say rainbow-colored slicks seen on video in creeks near the site appear to be vinyl chloride. Authorities have confirmed about 3,500 small fish were killed in nearby creeks shortly after the incident, and a new federal lawsuit claims fish and wild animals are dying as far as 20 miles away from the site of the derailment. At least five lawsuits have been filed against the railroad.

TRAINS ARE BECOMING LESS SAFE:Why the Ohio derailment disaster could happen more often

WHAT IS VINYL CHLORIDE?:Toxic gases connected to Ohio train derailment cause concern

State announces East Palestine medical clinic

As residents complain of rashes, headaches, and nausea, DeWine announced plans to open a medical clinic in the village next week to evaluate those who are worried. The clinic will include a team of experts in chemical exposures, despite repeated assurances that air and water testing have shown no signs of dangerous levels of contaminants.

David Betras, a former Democratic Party chairman in Mahoning County told residents to keep a record of anything unusual that happened to their health after the derailment and controlled release of chemicals. He said signs and symptoms of illness may take years to show up and encouraged residents to keep a detailed diary.

"We don't know what all of the long-term effects are but we're going to find out," Betras said.

EPA will 'hold Norfolk Southern responsible' after train derailment

A caravan of national and local politicians and environmental officials converged this week in East Palestine attempting to restore the community's trust following the train derailment.

U.S. Senators J.D. Vance and Sherrod Brown, Rep. Bill Johnson, and Michael Regan, the administrator of the EPA, visited the area.

Regan said the EPA is "absolutely gonna hold Norfolk Southern responsible," the Akron Beacon Journal reported. Regan urged anyone experiencing symptoms to see a doctor and alert their local or state health departments.

The agency is helping the state test the water and air, collect soil samples, and screen homes. Also, the U.S. Department of Transportation is on-site investigating the derailment.

"This is going to be a long-term commitment," Brown said during his visit, echoing Regan's comments. Brown said he wants to know more, including why the train was not classified as "hazardous," and possible changes going forward.

"I'll be satisfied when the people in East Palestine are satisfied," Brown said.

'HOLD NORFOLK SOUTHERN RESPONSIBLE':EPA Chief vows to hold train company 'responsible' after the massive derailment in Ohio

OHIO TRAIN DERAILMENT FACT CHECK:What's true and what's false?

Biden administration defends response

The White House on Friday defended its response to the derailment, saying it "mobilized a robust, multi-agency effort to support the people of East Palestine, Ohio," including the EPA, National Transportation Safety Board and other agencies that arrived on-site within hours of the derailment.

“When these incidents happen, you need to let the emergency response take place,'' White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Friday. “We did take action and folks were on the ground.''

The White House said Thursday that teams from the federal health and emergency response and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will go to East Palestine.

The White House said that FEMA is embedded in the Incident Command Center in East Palestine and in constant contact with the Ohio Emergency Management Agency. Additionally, as Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine continues to ask for public health support, the White House said it's deploying teams from Health and Human Services and the CDC in response to conduct public health assessments.

NEW LAWSUIT IN OHIO TRAIN DERAILMENT:Norfolk Southern released 1.1M pounds of vinyl chloride after derailment, lawsuit alleges

Residents voice their concerns: 'It's going to happen again'

East Palestine residents have expressed their frustration over the way the train derailment has been handled. At a town hall Wednesday night, residents became angrier when Mayor Trent Conaway told them they wouldn't get an opportunity to question Norfolk Southern officials to learn more about the derailment after the rail company backed out.

Residents voiced frustrations at a series of meetings this week over what they have said is incomplete and vague information about long-term effects of the incident.

"I have three grandbabies," said resident Kathy Dyke at a public meeting Wednesday. "Are they going to grow up here in five years and have cancer?"

James Wolfe, an East Palestine native who lives in neighboring Columbiana, Ohio, said he hopes the rail industry and local, state, and federal government learn from the derailment.

"It's going to happen again," Wolfe said. "They're not going to do anything to stop it."

'WE ARE HERE AND WILL STAY HERE':Norfolk Southern's CEO letter and plea to residents affected by Ohio train derailment

What may have caused the derailment?

On Feb. 3, an eastbound Norfolk Southern Railway freight train, which contained hazardous materials, derailed on main track 1 in East Palestine, Ohio, about 50 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and 21 miles south of Youngstown, Ohio.

Investigators examined the rail car that initiated the derailment and have surveillance video from a home showing “what appears to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment,” the NTSB said Tuesday. Its preliminary report is expected in two weeks.

The train was carrying a variety of products from Madison, Illinois, to Conway, Pennsylvania, according to rail operator Norfolk Southern and the National Transportation Safety Board.

What are the ongoing concerns?

Vinyl chloride is associated with an increased risk of certain cancers, and officials at the time warned burning it would release two concerning gases — hydrogen chloride and phosgene, the latter of which was used as a weapon in World War I.

Ohio Health Department Director Bruce Vanderhoff cautioned at a news conference Tuesday that residents who were worried about lingering odors or headaches since the derailment should know that those can be triggered by contaminant levels in the air that are well below what’s unsafe.

The derailment also highlighted questions about railroad safety, though federal data show accidents involving hazardous materials at this scale are very rare. Trains were rolling past East Palestine again soon after the evacuation order was lifted.

Contributing: Tami Abdollah, USA TODAY; Kelly Byers, Emily Mills, Eric Marotta and Craig Webb, Akron Beacon-Journal; Max Filby, Columbus Dispatch; Chrissy Suttles, Beaver County Times; Benjamin Duer, Canton Repository; The Associated Press