Biden readies for 'a horrible two years' if GOP takes control of ...

CNN —

As if Democrats needed any more convincing Tuesday’s midterm elections carry enormous stakes, President Joe Biden offered a bluntly dire assessment during a fundraiser last Friday in Chicago.

“If we lose the House and Senate, it’s going to be a horrible two years,” Biden told the small crowd gathered inside a hotel ballroom, where cameras weren’t allowed. “The good news is I’ll have a veto pen.”

After two years of Democratic control of Congress, a change in leadership in the House or Senate – or both – would thrust Biden’s presidency into an entirely new phase. Biden himself has been projecting optimism in the final days of the campaign, but reality is setting in for Democrats their majority rule in Congress could soon end – and Biden’s ability to get his top priorities passed could go with it.

White House officials have begun pointing out their losses aren’t likely to be nearly as bad as previous midterm wipeouts, including in 2010, and say the fact Democrats have a fighting chance at all is a positive sign for Biden. But his advisers privately acknowledge that they don’t see a viable path for Democrats to hold onto their House majority, though the president and his senior team are starting the day with the view that the prospect of Democrats holding on to their Senate majority is real – even if it’s one that may take days, or longer, to be fully realized.

With the intraparty blame game set to boil over in the weeks ahead, the White House moved Tuesday to separate Biden’s agenda – and the president himself – from the list of targets. The White House circulated an Election Day memo to allies more than two dozen individual poll results they say underscores the popularity of the key individual elements of Biden’s agenda, ranging from his cornerstone legislative achievements to his actions on student loans, marijuana and his administration’s response to Covid-19

“Before all the votes have even been cast, pundits are declaring that these midterms have been a referendum on the president’s agenda – nothing could be further from the truth,” the memo, which was obtained by CNN, says in its introduction.

Yet even Biden has acknowledged that his agenda, no matter how it polls in isolation, hasn’t translated to an American public that has taken a largely negative view on the direction of the country.

“We’ve passed so many good things,” Biden said at a fundraising event last week. “They’ve been so good people haven’t realized how good they are yet.”

The effort to get in front of expected losses comes after months of frontline Democratic candidates actively seeking to separate themselves from Biden, relegating the party’s leader mostly to Democratic states and districts as the party scrambled to save its majorities. It’s a reality advisers say Biden doesn’t take personally. After 36 years in the Senate, Biden’s view has long been that the candidates know what’s best for their state or district. But as Biden’s approval ratings started to inch up in the last few months, White House officials have bristled at the view that he was a singular drag on Democrats.

The defensive tone in the memo echoes a message Biden has repeatedly sought to emphasize in the closing days of the campaign, one that centers on the idea that the election represents a choice between two parties, not a referendum on Biden or his presidency.

A loss of a few seats – Republicans need only pick up five seats to take control of the House – would mean dramatic changes for the president.

Here are four areas that are at stake this Tuesday for Biden and his administration:

GOP investigations

Republicans on Capitol Hill have made abundantly clear that if they take control of Congress, Biden should get ready: Investigations are coming his way.

A majority in the House or Senate would hand GOP lawmakers powerful chairmanships on a number of oversight committees, giving them the ability to launch investigations targeting Biden, the White House and even members of the president’s family.

And so far, Republican members have indicated that they’re eager to target all of the above.

GOP lawmakers including Reps. James Comer and Jim Jordan, who are likely to chair the House Oversight and Judiciary committees respectively, are getting ready to probe a range of issues, from the business dealings of Biden’s son, Hunter; to what Republicans allege is political interference by the FBI and Justice Department; to the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.

And that’s not to mention the drumbeat of impeachment talk – for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas or even the president himself.

Video Ad Feedback Kevin McCarthy asked about impeaching Biden if GOP wins House. Hear his answer 02:29 - Source: CNN

White House officials have been expecting and preparing for this new world for months, including by making personnel hires earlier this summer to beef up its oversight operations. Officials say if Republicans do in fact, take control of Congress, the White House is prepared to beef up those efforts even more with additional hires, and believe it will be ready to push back on future GOP investigations as lacking in merit, politically motivated and nefarious.

While officials have been cautious not to get in front of any GOP actions or pre-judge the results of the election, they are also keenly aware of political dynamics that may work in their favor, people familiar with the matter said.

“American people historically don’t respond well to egregious overreach,” one of the people told CNN, specifically citing a new Republican majority’s battles with former President Bill Clinton. “We’ll be prepared, but it’s tough to look at House Republicans and think this won’t wander into that territory.”

Agenda

The historic likelihood that Biden would lose seats – and majorities – in Congress has loomed over the White House his entire term so far. It is part of what motivated the president’s ambitious legislative agenda, including major Covid-19 relief and a bipartisan infrastructure package, in the earliest months of his presidency.

If Republicans gain control of one or both chambers, the era of big, progressive bills will likely end. Instead, Biden will be on the defense as Republicans work to undo much of what he accomplished in the first two years of his term.

The GOP has already vowed to roll back elements of Biden’s signature legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, including its new, higher taxes on corporations. And they could work to roll back or challenge some of the president’s climate initiatives that are included in the package.

Other areas where the president has vowed action, like cementing into law the nationwide right to abortion, would have no chance of advancing if Republicans take control. And other programs, like student loan relief, could be subject to blocking efforts by the GOP.

In all of these areas, Biden is poised to wield his veto pen in rejecting potential Republican attempts to undermine his agenda. As president, Biden has not vetoed any bills, a facet of Democratic control on Capitol Hill.

White House officials have already been quietly preparing for the areas where agreement is a necessity – spending bills and an increase of the nation’s debt limit. The two issues represent must-pass items that have been at the center of a series of Congress vs. White House battles over the last decade.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, has been among a number of House Republicans who have pledged to deploy similar tactics should they take the majority.

Video Ad Feedback McCarthy tells CNN first bill would be on border security if GOP wins House 02:05 - Source: CNN

The first concrete signs of how that may play out will quickly become apparent. Lawmakers will return to Capitol Hill this month with a matter of weeks to reach an agreement to fund the government.

At the same time, Biden has a long history of working with Republicans to advance pieces of legislation. And he vowed when running for office to find areas to work across the aisle, something he was able to do on several of his key cornerstone legislative wins.

Biden advisers point to the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law and the $250 billion semiconductor manufacturing and science bill as providing a road map to bipartisan success.

Biden’s 2024 decision

As soon as the 2022 midterm election results are in, national attention will immediately turn to 2024 – including on the question of whether Biden will seek a second term.

While Biden and his aides have been quietly thinking about his political future for months and they have accelerated conversations in the last month, those deliberations will accelerate with the close of the midterm cycle. Biden has pointed to family meetings during the holiday stretch as important to his decision-making, though people familiar with the matter say first lady Dr. Jill Biden and others are on board with another run.

For weeks, the president and his advisers have maintained that his intention, for now, is to run again. Biden moved quickly to transfer his 2020 operation to the Democratic National Committee after he defeated former President DonaldTrump. The party committee has spent the last two years maintaining and beefing up his grassroots list, fundraising pipeline and building out state-level infrastructure that would make up the critical infrastructure of a nascent campaign.

They’ve also said that no decision is final until the president has had ample opportunity to discuss his political future with his family. But Biden’s 2024 decision won’t just be a family affair – there will also be strong political dynamics at play.

For one, Trump’s decision to seek a second term – and the timing of that potential announcement – is expected to be a key factor. Biden advisers continue to believe that the president is best positioned to take on his predecessor, and are confident about a second Biden vs. Trump contest.

Video Ad Feedback See Al Franken's reaction to Trump's 2024 tease 02:57 - Source: CNN

Another consideration: How fellow Democrats respond to the results of Tuesday night. Polling from this fall indicates a majority of Democrats say they do not want Biden to run again in 2024. And losses for Democrats could only exacerbate the sense within the party that a change in direction is required.

While many elected officials in Biden’s party have been loyal in expressing their public support for a second term, some others have openly called for change.

Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who said over the summer that he does not believe Biden should run again, told CNN on the eve of Election Day that he believes “a majority of Democrats” feel the same way.

“Regardless of tomorrow’s results, I believe Democrats must rebuild our brand and repopulate our bench of future leaders – for both Congress and the White House,” Phillips said. “President Biden has fulfilled his promise to serve as a stabilizing ‘bridge’ to the future, and I expect a majority of Democrats will be seeking a next generation candidate to take the baton in 2024.”

Staffing changes

Biden has seen remarkably little turnover in the first two years of his tenure among his Cabinet and senior team. The halfway mark of his first term, however, could be a natural moment for staff changes.

It reflects a reluctance to shake up his team, despite calls at various points to dismiss members of his administration. Biden has refrained from firing or asking for the resignation of any members of his Cabinet and sought to lock in his senior team months ahead of this year’s midterms.

There has been turnover among his senior staff, including in top West Wing positions. His press secretary, White House counsel and senior adviser for public engagement all left earlier this year. Some officials decided to leave the White House around the one-year mark of the administration, while others departed at the start of summer.

But Biden’s inner circle remains mostly intact. That includes chief of staff Ron Klain, senior advisers Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti, deputy chiefs of staff Bruce Reed and Jen O’Malley Dillon, communications director Kate Bedingfield and top communications adviser Anita Dunn.

Officials have said changes are possible both to the president’s Cabinet and his senior White House staff later this year, though no moves are guaranteed. Should Biden announce his decision to run in 2024, several of the members of his core team are considered likely to shift over to the political operation.

Earlier this fall, the White House established a talent search project to prepare for potential vacancies across Cabinet and senior administration roles following the midterm elections.

Klain brought forward the talent search idea, which will be overseen by two Biden White House alums, Jeff Zients and Natalie Quillian. The pair served in similar roles during the 2020 presidential transition.

“It’s just good government to make sure that you’re thinking ahead,” O’Malley Dillon said during an Axios event last week. “The people that are part of this and helping make that change are the people that you’d expect, and you want to see.”

Zients and Quillian – who both served in Covid-19 response roles at the White House earlier in Biden’s presidential term – have specifically been conducting a wide and diverse search for prospective candidates outside the administration to fill Cabinet, deputy Cabinet and senior administration roles.

Some top officials, like Covid adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci, are preparing to leave soon. Climate envoy John Kerry has told CNN he plans to stay in the administration at least until this week’s major climate conference in Egypt – without indicating whether he’ll stay longer. And Biden recently appointed a seasoned veteran of Democratic White Houses, John Podesta, to serve as his climate adviser.

The future of other officials is unclear. Klain has been the subject of speculation, and it is typical for White House chiefs of staff to serve only a portion of a president’s term. But as Biden faces the inevitable personnel transition that all presidents experience after the midterms, Klain’s deeply ingrained role in all corners of the West Wing’s operations may create even more incentive for him to stick around, some officials note, even as they acknowledge he’s given no indication of his intentions.

A potential replacement has been floated in Dunn, who would be the first woman to serve in the role.

“I like the job I have,” Dunn insisted at the Axios event. She added, “I hope Ron Klain stays as long as Joe Biden is president.”

Kevin Liptak Mj Lee Phil Mattingly
Kevin Liptak
Mj Lee
Phil Mattingly

Here's how Republicans would address inflation | CNN Politics

A version of this story appears in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.

CNN —

Life is more expensive, which means everyone has gotten a pay cut. And people are not happy about it.

Still-high gas prices. High rents. The cost of service. It’s all having a cumulative effect. And wage hikes haven’t kept pace with inflation.

$1,000 for a day at Disney. A more specific example that affects people fortunate enough to consider a vacation is the fact that a family of four will now spend more than $1,000 for a single day parking their car and park hopping at Disneyland. And that’s before food or souvenirs, according to CNN’s Natasha Chen.

Tide turning. Aggravating and persistent inflation that refuses, so far, to be tamed by interest rate hikes, remains a motivating force in American politics. And the sour economic mood is tilting the political landscape toward Republicans, according to CNN polling director Jennifer Agiesta.

“The nation’s overall political mood – which had been somewhat more favorable for Democrats following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade – may be tilting more in Republicans’ favor,” Agiesta writes.

What would Republicans do? It’s worth considering how the economy will be different with Republicans in charge of the House or Senate.

Republicans on the campaign trail have tried to capitalize on the ongoing sticker shock and laid primary blame for inflation on government spending, an argument that overlooks the energy spike caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine and the supply chain issues caused by the lingering Covid-19 pandemic.

Here’s an extended riff from Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – who is in line to be speaker of the House next year if Republicans win in November – when he appeared on Fox on Tuesday:

“Every American needs to be asked this one question: ‘Could you afford to give up one month of your wages?’ Ninety-five percent of Americans will say no. But that’s what the Democrats have taken from you. Because one month of your wages is 8.3% of your overall year – inflation is higher than that.

That’s why when you go to the store, eggs are higher. You‘ve got milk higher, your gasoline prices higher. It is the Democrat policies that brought that. That’s why in the Commitment to America, we will be energy independent, that lower your prices. We’ll take away this runaway spending. We’ll make America more productive to curve inflation, what the Democrats have brought us.”

That’s the pitch. Can they deliver?

Controlling the House and/or Senate would certainly give Republicans the ability to squash any more spending pushed by the Biden administration. And for an idea of what they support, check out McCarthy’s Commitment to America website. It contains few specifics, but has three basic tenets:

“Curb wasteful government spending …”

Enact “pro-growth tax and deregulatory policies …” (cut taxes and regulations)

“Make America energy independent …” (specifically through oil and gas production)

Regarding the tax and regulation ideas, those are longer-term ideas since they would require a Republican president.

A fourth promise to end reliance on China and ease supply chain problems does not include specific policy ideas.

President Joe Biden, for his part, has partially wrapped independence from China and building up US manufacturing into his climate policy, and on Wednesday announced $2.8 billion in grants for US battery supply chains under authority from the bipartisan infrastructure law that passed last year.

How far could Republicans go to cut spending?

McCarthy has suggested Republicans will go further and even use the debt ceiling, which will likely be reached early next year, as leverage to force spending cuts. It’s a more overt endorsement of the tactic, which would theoretically see the US default on its obligations.

For an assessment of what Republicans can and would be able to accomplish on inflation, I talked to Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist and president of the American Action Forum, a nonprofit organization that does not endorse policy positions but has a center-right viewpoint. He’s a former director of the Congressional Budget Office and was the economic policy adviser to Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, but he’s not affiliated with either party.

Controlling inflation is primarily the Fed’s job

The first thing to know, Holtz-Eakin said, is that the primary job of controlling inflation belongs to the Federal Reserve, not Congress or the White House.

However, he’s of the opinion – along with other economists like the Democrat Larry Summers – that government spending, and in particular the American Rescue Plan Act passed without help from Republicans shortly after Biden took office, helped drive inflation.

“Not committing the same mistake is something Republicans can control, there’s no doubt about it,” he said. “They can block things if they control the House, and that would be beneficial” to curb spending.

The proof that spending helped spur inflation

While Holtz-Eakin said it is not accurate to say Biden and Democrats created the inflation, they certainly helped accelerate it.

“It’s quite clear in the data that there’s a sharp ramp up of inflation in April of 2021 immediately as the checks go out, to implement a $2 trillion stimulus in our economy,” he said.

What about using the debt ceiling as leverage to cut spending?

“We’ve seen this movie a million times before,” Holtz-Eakin said, rattling off various ideas that have been put forward to control deficit spending and the national debt.

“People have talked on both sides of this forever, and there hasn’t been one difference in the outcomes,” he said. The debt has gone up steadily. It is currently set at nearly $31.4 trillion. At some point, he argued, someone is going to have to get serious about making fiscal policy more sustainable.

Cutting spending is contrary to Congress’ nature

While the American Rescue Plan never would have happened if Republicans had been in control of the House, Holtz-Eakin also said something important about how even when there are promises to cut spending, spending occurs.

“On the whole, Congress tends to spend more and tax less and run deficits,” he said. “On the whole, it’s directionally always more inflationary than not.” But a GOP majority would certainly lower the magnitude of spending, he said.

A recession might be on the way no matter what

There are more and more predictions of a recession as the Federal Reserve tries to tamp down on inflation by raising interest rates.

“Once inflation is there, you have nothing but bad choices,” Holtz-Eakin said. “You have to raise rates and tighten financial conditions. That means fewer jobs and less retail sales, fewer housing starts and all sorts of bad decisions.”

Those decisions are being made regardless of who sits in the House and Senate.

“Ownership of the economy usually falls to the president, who gets blamed or gets credit for what happens on his or her watch,” he said.

What’s Biden doing?

The President tried again Wednesday to put even the smallest dent in gas prices with the formal announcement of yet another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – 15 million barrels in December – although it’s unlikely to have much impact.

The rest of the government is trying to do its part to ease the burden of inflation too:

That said, none of those measures will likely make Americans feel very different about the economy before Election Day.

Recap: CBO report sets summer as timeframe for deal on debt

Debt ceiling default could come as soon as July.

The Congressional Budget Office Wednesday declared that the U.S. Treasury will run out of money to pay government bills such as Social Security and military paychecks by the summer unless lawmakers agree on a deal to raise the debt limit ceiling.

That doesn't leave much time to reach a deal and, as it turns out, there's not a lot of places Democrats and Republicans can agree to cut – at least in the short term.

Here's what else is happening in politics:

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Biden, McCarthy spar over debt after CBO releases new projections

President Joe Biden on Wednesday accused Republicans of supporting tax cuts for the wealthy and other policies that would add $3 trillion to the national debt, pushing back on their demands for spending cuts as part of raising the debt ceiling.

Biden, speaking at an electrical workers union hall in Lanham Md., singled out Republican efforts to extend expiring Trump-era tax cuts for high-income earners and corporations, which would add a projected $2.7 trillion in debt. “It would explode the deficit and leave the American taxpayer holding the bag,” he said.

His remarks came after the Congressional Budget Office released an updated budget outlook that projects the U.S. will add more than $19 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, $3 trillion more than was projected last year.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy fired back in a tweet, saying Biden’s policies have led to $13 trillion in new spending and renewing his call to “negotiate a responsible debt limit increase that gets our fiscal house back in order.”

“Democrats' reckless spending is plunging our country into deeper debt & jeopardizing our economy,” McCarthy said. “A blank check for more spending will destroy our country.”

– Joey Garrison

CBO: Debt ceiling deadline could strike as soon as July

The U.S. Treasury will run out of money to pay government bills such as Social Security and military paychecks this summer, but there's no way to tell exactly what day yet, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

If Congress doesn't raise the debt limit – the amount the U.S. can legally borrow – the "extraordinary measures" the Treasury is taking to pay America's bills will run out between July and September, the CBO said in a new report Wednesday afternoon.

But there is no "X-date" in the report to mark the threshold for when the U.S. will run out of cash.

The CBO blames the uncertain date on upcoming revenue collections, especially how much the U.S. collects in taxes by the April due date. If the country takes in less than expected, the U.S. could run out of money before July.

– Candy Woodall

Hunter Biden’s art dealer tells House chairman to ask president’s son about paintings

A lawyer for Hunter Biden’s art dealer has told a House committee it should seek information about the sales of paintings from the president's son, not the broker.

Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., chairman of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, asked New York art dealer Georges Berges for documents and testimony about who was buying Hunter Biden’s paintings and for how much. Comer voiced concerns the high prices could buy influence with the Biden administration.

But William Pittard, a lawyer for Berges, replied in a letter that Berges arranged to keep information about the art sales confidential to avoid ethical concerns with President Joe Biden. Pittard also cited a Supreme Court decision about demands from Comer’s panel in the investigation of former President Donald Trump that ruled “transactions by the President and his family” exceeded the House’s authority. Pittard suggested Comer pose his questions to Hunter Biden and his lawyer, Abbe Lowell.

The committee said in a statement Berges should abandon his delay tactics and produce the documents requested: "We find the objections unconvincing and incoherent."

– Bart Jansen

Art mystery:Hunter Biden's art dealer says his work is 'important.' Why the paintings factor into GOP probes.

How is fentanyl smuggled in the US? Lawmakers pose tough questions to stem the flow

Biden administration officials warned a key Senate panel Wednesday that a surge of illicitly manufactured fentanyl trafficked into the United States continues to claim lives and has contributed to "the worst drug crisis" the nation has ever seen.

More than 56,000 people died from overdoses involving synthetic opioids in 2020, including fentanyl — a more than 56% increase in overdose death rates from 2019, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

During a hearing Wednesday featuring key drug enforcement officials, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee demanded to hear ways to stem the flow of fentanyl into the country. Most of the fentanyl being trafficked into the country is mass-produced in labs in Mexico and made with from chemicals sourced from China, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration.

– Sarah Elbeshbishi

Opioid crisis:How is fentanyl smuggled in the US? Lawmakers are asking tough questions to stem the flow

House GOP subpoenas 5 tech CEOs over alleged suppression of conservatives

Rep. Jim Jordan, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, subpoenaed top executives of five tech companies to ask about interactions with the government and alleged suppression of conservatives.

Jordan, R-Ohio, said he is developing legislation to limit how much tech companies can restrict the circulation of content or remove users from their platforms. Jordan said Twitter recently set a benchmark for revealing its interactions with government requests to suppress content.

The subpoenas went to Timothy Cook, CEO of Apple; Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon; Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft; Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, the parent company of Google; and Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms, the parent of Facebook.

– Bart Jansen

Republican probes:Investigating the investigators: GOP creates panels to probe DOJ, China

Not just Haley: South Carolina's Tim Scott is also mulling presidential bid

Nikki Haley might not be the only politician from South Carolina to run for president in 2024.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the Senate's only Black Republican, has hired new political aides and is planning a trip to Iowa, all stoking speculation that he may also jump into next year's Republican race.

Scott allies are mum on whether he will take the plunge.

“These next few weeks Senator Scott will not just talk about his faith, but also why he has faith in America," said Jennifer DeCasper, a senior adviser to the South Carolina senator. "He is excited to share his vision of hope and opportunity and hear the American people’s response.”

Asked about Scott's campaign-like activity, aides stayed mum.

– David Jackson

Hawkeye haven:As GOP starting gate for 2024 presidential race, Iowa sees surge of announced and potential candidates

DOJ drops investigation of Rep. Matt Gaetz without charges

The Justice Department has formally decided not to charge firebrand Rep. Matt Gaetz in a sex-trafficking investigation, the lawmaker's lawyers said Wednesday.

"We have just spoken with the DOJ and have been informed that they have concluded their investigation into Congressman Gaetz and allegations related to sex trafficking and obstruction of justice and they have determined not to bring any charges against him," attorneys Marc Mukasey and Isabelle Kirshner said.

Gaetz, R-Fla., has been under investigation for years for allegedly having sexual relations with a 17-year-old girl and allegedly paying for her to travel with him. But Gaetz, 40, who said he cooperated with federal investigators and strongly denied the allegations.

- Bart Jansen

Gaetz charges dropped:Justice Department drops sex-trafficking probe of Rep. Matt Gaetz without charges, lawyers say

Defense secretary: No unidentified objects in US airspace the last few days

The sky has been quiet since three unidentified objects were downed by U.S. fighter jets over the United States and Canada from Friday to Sunday, the head of the Defense Department said.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in Brussels Wednesday that no unidentified objects have been observed flying over the United States by the Pentagon the last few days.

"I'm not aware of any additional objects that have been reported operating in the space in the last 48 hours," Austin said.

–Tom Vanden Brook

Latest on flying objects:Unidentified flying objects might have been research or commercial balloons, White House says

Biden to argue Republican proposals would add $3 trillion to national debt

President Joe Biden plans to go on the offensive Wednesday in his standoff with Republicans over the debt ceiling, arguing that Republican proposals put forward this year would add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade.

Biden will make that case in a speech Wednesday afternoon at an electrical workers union hall in Lanham, Maryland, according to excerpts of the address provided by the White House. Biden will say his budget proposal, which he will release March 9, would cut the deficit by $2 trillion over 10 years, not raise any taxes on individuals earning less than $400,000 and “protect and strengthen” Social Security and Medicare.

– Joey Garrison

Biden national debt remarks come before budget forecast

Biden's remarks will come after the Congressional Budget Office is expected to release a budget forecast that will outline when Congress must raise the debt ceiling before the U.S. defaults on financial obligations.

The White House pointed to Republican efforts to extend expiring tax cuts for wealthy earners and corporations that passed under former President Donald Trump, which would add $2.7 trillion in debt. Republican-backed legislation that cleared the House to rescind IRS resources designed to crack down on tax cheats would add $144 billion in debt and a bill to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act would erase a new policy allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and raise the debt by $156 billion.

– Joey Garrison

Hitting the campaign trial, Nikki Haley pursues big-name endorsements

Nikki Haley has a lot to do to build support with Republican voters, and one of her methods was on display at her announcement event: Prominent endorsers.

Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., the first member of the South Carolina congressional delegation to endorse the former governor, introduced Haley by saying that Donald Trump was "exactly" what the Republican Party needed back in 2016, but Haley is a "leader" for new times.

Another pre-speech speaker: Cindy Warmbier, whose 22-year-old son Otto died just days after North Korea released him from prison in 2017. She said the United States "would be lucky to have Nikki Haley in the White House."

Haley will also be pursuing endorsers during her upcoming trips to Iowa and New Hampshire.

– David Jackson, Mabinty Quarshie

Nikki Haley in 2024:Nikki Haley announces 2024 presidential bid in first major GOP challenge to Donald Trump

Nikki Haley looks for a GOP lane between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis

Now that she's in the Republican presidential race, Nikki Haley must find a way to crash a party primary field dominated by Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.

While touting her experience as the former governor of South Carolina and a former United Nations ambassador, Haley stresses something else: her relative youth.

"It's time for a new generation of leadership," Haley said in an announcement video put out a day before her announcement speech Wednesday in Charleston, South Carolina.

– David Jackson, Mabinty Quarshie

As nation reels from Michigan shooting, courts wrestle with access to guns

Should the government be able to take guns from Americans who smoke marijuana? What about people who are the subject of domestic violence protective orders?

A federal appeals court in Philadelphia is grappling Wednesday with a case that questions whether Americans who have committed nonviolent felonies can be denied access to guns. It’s one of several such cases questioning who can be denied access to weapons that are percolating in federal courts in the wake of a landmark Supreme Court ruling last year on the Second Amendment.

The case in Philadelphia, which deals with a man who has been denied access to guns after making false statements to boost his food stamp assistance nearly three decades ago, comes as the nation is reeling from another mass shooting. Three Michigan State University students were killed and five others were wounded in a shooting Monday night.

– John Fritze

Gun access:As nation reels from Michigan State shooting, courts wrestle with access to guns

Will Republicans get the spending cuts they want?

As the country looks to avert a potentially catastrophic default, Republicans are threatening to not raise the federal debt ceiling unless Democrats agree to cut federal spending.

But President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy agree that Social Security and Medicare – which combined account for a third of federal spending alone – are off the table. And Republicans oppose cuts to Defense or veterans' programs, which make up another 15%.

With Democrats who control the Senate unwilling to go along with broad cuts to a number of social safety programs, there doesn't appear much for Congress to trim – at least not in the short run.

– Sarah Elbeshbishi

What's at stake in debt ceiling talks:With debt ceiling deadline looming, will Republicans get the spending cuts they want?

4 Russian warplanes intercepted by American F-16 jets near Alaska

A pair of American F-16 jets intercepted four Russian warplanes in Alaska in what the North American Aerospace Defense Command on Tuesday called a “routine intercept.”

The Russian jets were detected and intercepted Monday in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ, which is a zone beyond the border of American and Canadian sovereign airspace that is jointly monitored by the two nations.

Russian activity in the ADIZ “occurs regularly and is not seen as a threat, nor is the activity seen as provocative,” according to NORAD. Since 2007, a yearly average of six to seven intercepts of Russian jets have taken place in the zone, the organization said.

NORAD also said the interception is in “no way” related to the airborne objects in American airspace during the last two weeks.

– Ella Lee

NATO secretary general says military alliance will ‘step up’ support for Ukraine

As the first anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine approaches, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s top official affirmed support for Ukraine by promising sustained support from the intergovernmental military alliance.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary general, said Wednesday after a meeting of NATO defense ministers that the alliance would work to bolster defense and boost industrial capacity to replenish arms and munitions, both generally and in Ukraine. He said action is paramount because of the “more dangerous world” in which we live today, citing Russia’s “aggressive” behavior, ongoing threats of terrorism and the “challenges” posed by China.

“Moscow underestimated #Ukraine's bravery & NATO unity,” Stoltenberg said in a Wednesday tweet. “We will step up & sustain our support for as long as it takes.”

– Ella Lee

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds could be a caucus kingmaker. Why she won't play favorites

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds is always in demand ahead of the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, as candidates try to ingratiate themselves with the leader of the state party that will shape their political trajectory.

But Reynolds emerged from the COVID pandemic and the 2022 midterm election more polarizing yet more powerful, and Republicans say her new levels of political clout and popularity make her uniquely influential among the state's GOP base as the national spotlight turns, once again, to Iowa ahead of its 2024 presidential caucuses.

“I would say with a great deal of confidence that Kim Reynolds is the only person in the state of Iowa that could be a king or a queenmaker,” Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann said.

– Brianne Pfannenstiel, Des Moines Register

Nicola Sturgeon to step down as Scotland's leader

Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon, the head of the country’s independence movement for eight years, plans to resign.

The move was unexpected, and comes amid criticism in the country of her push to make it easier for people to legally change genders. She said the decision was not a reaction to political pressures.

– The Associated Press

Georgia grand jury concerned witnesses lied during Trump investigation

A special purpose grand jury in Georgia is concerned witnesses lied during its investigation of former President Donald Trump and his allies' efforts to overturn the state's 2020 election, raising the specter of potential charges.

Descriptions of the alleged lies could be unveiled Thursday, when parts of the grand jury's long-awaited report on the Trump probe is made public. The witnesses won't be identified and no one has been charged yet. But prosecutors could pursue perjury charges as leverage to broaden the investigation, according to legal experts.

“That expands the scope of potential defendants quite a bit,” said Clark Cunningham, a law professor at Georgia State University. “It also opens up the possibility for the district attorney to proceed immediately with perjury indictments, which would be pretty straightforward.”

– Bart Jansen

Read the full story:Witnesses in Georgia Trump probe suspected of lying, raising more questions in closely watched inquiry

Jeff Zients, aka 'Mr. Fix-It,' takes on DC's most brutal job

Jeff Zients, a management expert and government official with a reputation for conquering the most impossible of tasks, embarked last week upon what may be his toughest challenge yet. He is the new White House chief of staff.

Zients is known for making things work. But the challenges he will face as chief of staff are like no challenges he has faced before.

The war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending. Fears the country could slip into a recession persist, with a government report released Tuesday showing that inflation is slowly easing but likely to keep prices elevated well into this year.

The administration is facing a showdown with congressional Republicans on raising the limit on how much money the government can borrow. House Republicans, emboldened by their new but razor-thin majority, are plotting a series of investigations into President Joe Biden and members of his family.

– Michael Collins

Who is Biden's new chief of staff?:Jeff Zients, aka 'Mr. Fix-It,' takes on DC's most brutal job

Mike Pence joins other potential presidential hopefuls in Iowa

Former Vice President Mike Pence is returning to Iowa this week, kicking off a surge of presidential caucus activity after a quiet start to the year.

Iowa Republicans will hold their traditional first-in-the-nation caucuses in early 2024, which serve as the starting line for the rest of the presidential primary cycle. A bevy of candidates are expected to compete, and they've been making inroads with the state's Republican elected officials and activists for months, if not years, as they weigh their plans.

Now, with former President Donald Trump formally in the race and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley officially launching her campaign, activity in the Hawkeye State is ramping up.

– Brianne Pfannenstiel

More:As GOP starting gate for 2024 presidential race, Iowa sees surge of announced and potential candidates

Feinstein will not run again in 2024

Democrat Dianne Feinstein, California’s longest serving senator, is forgoing reelection.

“I am announcing today I will not run for reelection in 2024, but intend to accomplish as much for California as I can through the end of next year when my term ends,” Feinstein said in a statement Tuesday.

The decision shakes up the 2024 Senate map as multiple Democrats — including Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff — have either announced or are reportedly considering their bids to succeed the longtime senator, who had been dogged by questions about her ability to serve.

– Phillip M. Bailey

More:Dianne Feinstein, California's longest serving senator, won't seek reelection in 2024

Biden renews calls to ban assault weapons after Michigan State shooting

President Joe Biden renewed his call to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines after a shooting at Michigan State University killed three people and injured five others.

“I’m going to say something that’s always controversial,” Biden said Tuesday in remarks addressing the National Association of Counties in Washington. "There is no rationale for assault weapons and magazines that hold 50, 70 bullets.”

Biden’s push to reenact a ban on assault weapons, which expired in 2004, is unlikely to pass a Republican-led House and even faces an uphill climb in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

– Joey Garrison

More:President Biden says 'no rationale for assault weapons' after Michigan State University shooting

Republicans will control the House, but they can't do much to fix the ...

CNN —

Congressional Republicans have repeatedly blamed President Joe Biden and their Democratic counterparts for the surge in inflation and the rocky economy.

But though the GOP has captured control of the House in the midterm election, albeit by a very slim margin, there’s not much the party can do to quickly bring down prices and put the economy on more solid footing when it assumes power in January.

“It was really easy to criticize the economy and criticize inflation. But no one really had an agenda to do anything about it,” said Brian Riedl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a free market think tank, and former chief economist for Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio. “I think ultimately, they’re going to be pointing fingers at each other while they wait for the Federal Reserve to do most of the heavy lifting.”

House Republican leaders provided some big-picture ideas of their economic plans in their legislative agenda, titled Commitment to America, which they released in September. Many are core GOP ideals: They promise to curb wasteful spending, reduce taxes and regulations, ramp up American energy production, expand US manufacturing and move supply chains away from China.

However, California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who is in line to become House speaker next year, may have difficulty garnering enough support to pass any economic proposals with such a narrow majority, Riedl said. The caucus is currently split between economic nationalists, who want to increase tariffs, reduce immigration and crack down on trade, and free-market supporters, who champion spending cuts, tax reductions, free trade and less regulation.

The only significant overlap between the factions is their interest in increasing energy production, though that would not swiftly or significantly bring down the prices of oil, natural gas and gasoline, he said.

Stop Democrats’ spending proposals

There is one thing House Republicans can do that they believe will help the economy: Slam the brakes on Biden’s and congressional Democrats’ big spending proposals, which the GOP argues has caused inflation to soar.

“We’ll pursue an agenda focused on affordability,” Texas Rep. Kevin Brady, ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, told reporters Wednesday. “That means less government spending, taxes and regulation that is fueling higher prices, more made-in-America energy, more workers reconnected to their job and innovation that can reduce the drivers of inflation.”

Soon after Biden took office last year, Democrats passed a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill that provided another round of stimulus checks, extended generous unemployment benefits, temporarily beefed up the child tax credit and enhanced federal subsidies for Affordable Care Act coverage, among other measures. Over the summer, the party passed a $750 billion health care, tax and climate bill – a much smaller version of a $3.5 trillion package Democrats had originally hoped to push through.

Several other spending measures got bipartisan support, including a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package that passed last November and a bill that will invest more than $200 billion over five years to boost semiconductor chip manufacturing, which was approved over the summer.

It’s very hard to take all this money out of the system, so it just needs to work its way through, said Rohit Kumar, co-leader, Washington National Tax Services at PwC, and former deputy chief of staff for Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. Most of the GOP’s economic policies are rooted in longer-term growth proposals, such as corporate tax incentives. In the short run, inflationary pressures will largely be handled by the Federal Reserve, though the GOP will seek to stop pouring more federal funds into the economy.

It’s possible the party will use the need to raise the debt ceiling sometime next year as leverage to force Biden and Democrats to curtail spending.

But if the economy does fall into a recession, cutting spending could make things worse, especially when the Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates, said Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments. Typically, providing targeted federal assistance to struggling Americans during downturns helps both them and the economy get back on their feet.

“This mood on Capitol Hill against spending is not designed, in my opinion, to help the economy,” he said. “I think it could weaken the economy.”

Economic improvement

Although prices for gas, food and other essentials remain high, inflation has cooled a bit in recent months. Wholesale prices rose by 8% in October from a year before, the smallest increase since July of last year, and the Consumer Price Index rose 7.7% for the year ending in October, the lowest annual inflation reading since January.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday that it could soon be time for the central bank to slow the pace of its rate increases. It has approved hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point at each of its last four meetings in an effort to curb inflation.

There’s no panacea for the nation’s economic and inflation woes, Valliere said.

“Everybody’s probably hoping that the economy heals by itself,” he said.

Stocks week ahead: How the midterms could affect Wall Street ...

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.

New York CNN Business —

Last week was a volatile one on Wall Street, with stocks falling after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell dashed the market’s dreams of a pivot and suggested that more big rate hikes are likely coming. But Wall Street is still turning its hopes to Washington.

Investors are betting on a big Republican wave in the midterm elections. If Republicans take at least one chamber of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm election, that will likely result in more gridlock, which the market usually loves.

According to data from Edelman Financial Engines, the S&P 500 had an annualized return of 16.9% since 1948 during the nine years when a Democrat was in the White House and Republicans had a majority in both chambers of Congress. That compares to 15.1% during periods of full Democratic control and 15.9% in years when there was a unified GOP government.

Investors are more than happy when politicians bicker but don’t actually enact any new laws that may hurt corporate profits.

Forget about taxes

One example is taxes on businesses.

“What do midterms mean for the markets? If Republicans get the House, tax hikes are dead in the water,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager with Aptus Capital Advisors. Republicans may be less likely to approve a windfall tax on oil company profits and also are generally not in favor of tax hikes on the wealthy.

The market also is betting that some sectors could get a boost – even if Republicans take control of the House or Senate and presumably make it more difficult for President Biden to get laws passed.

That’s because there are some areas of consensus for the White House and Republican lawmakers.

“A GOP sweep could lead to more spending on defense,” said Wagner. “Increasing the budget for defense seems to be a bipartisan issue.” The House passed a record high defense budget proposal this summer.

Biden and Republicans also seem to be on the same page when it comes to boosting spending on infrastructure. That could give a boost to utilities, construction companies and some real estate stocks. Congress did pass a more than $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill last year that was championed by President Biden after all. But it’s not yet clear what the appetite for more spending is…even if there is consensus that more is needed.

“Everything is polarized politically, but there has been common ground on infrastructure. That was even the case with [Donald] Trump and [Hillary] Clinton in 2016,” said Jim Lydotes, deputy chief investment officer of equities at Newton Investment Management. “As a country we’ve under-invested in infrastructure. That’s an area where there is a lot of agreement.”

Gridlock isn’t always a good thing

Of course, there is no guarantee that Biden and other Democratic leaders will be able to work effectively with Republicans in Congress. After all, the political narrative will quickly shift to the 2024 presidential race once the midterms are in the rear view mirror. Congress and the White House may spend more time bickering than trying to pass legislation.

There also may be some significant drawbacks to a divided government, especially if fears of a recession come to fruition next year.

Rob Dent, US senior economist at Nomura Securities International, said there could be less federal government spending on social safety net programs if Republicans take control of Congress.

“All else being equal, that could lead to a longer recovery from a recession,” Dent said. That would be bad for stocks more generally since consumer spending drives corporate profits.

Dent added that there’s also the unwelcome possibility of more bickering in Washington about the debt ceiling. The last time that was a major issue was during President Barack Obama’s first term. The US lost its prized perfect AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor’s as a result of the debt ceiling drama. The stock market plunged more than 5% after the downgrade happened in August 2011.

“This election outcome is less about what might get done versus what might not get done to help the economy during a downturn,” Dent said. “We’re worried about divided government leading to brinkmanship about the debt limit and the potential for government shutdowns. We haven’t had to deal with that in quite some time.”

But at the end of the day, political headlines are often just noise for the markets. Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene said on a conference call last week about the midterms that stocks have historically gone up after elections, no matter which party controls the White House and Congress.

The midterms may also take a “back seat” to other macro issues. Saglimbene noted that “growth, profits, inflation and interest rates” matter more to investors over the long haul. He conceded that election results could lead to more near-term volatility, but that the market is already pricing in a strong likelihood of divided government.

Inflation nation

Politically-induced market and economic volatility is the last thing that consumers, investors or the Fed need given that inflation has turned out to not be transitory as Fed chair Powell had predicted for much of 2021.

It is clear that higher prices for commodities and other raw materials, shipping and other transportation expenses and labor costs are not going away anytime soon.

Steve Cahillane, the CEO of cereal and snack food giant Kellogg (K), even said on the company’s most recent earnings call last week that the thought that “inflation was going to be transitory was always obviously ridiculous.”

We’ll get a better sense of just how persistent inflation is on Thursday after the government reports the September consumer price index (CPI) figures.

Economists surveyed by Reuters are forecasting that overall prices rose 0.7% last month, up from a 0.4% gain in September. That would likely push year-over-year prices, which rose 8.2% over the past 12 months through September, even higher as well. The continued strength of the jobs market will put more pressure on prices too.

“The labor market is resilient and inflation is spreading to the services sector, too,” said Troy Gayeski, chief investment strategist with FS Investments.

That may lead to more worries that the economy may be headed for a so-called stagflation environment, a period where stagnant growth occurs alongside high inflation. If that happens, the Fed is likely to keep rates higher for longer.

“We will exit this inflationary/stagflationary situation eventually,” Gayeski said. “But it’s not like the Fed will quickly cut rates back to zero. It’s going to be really cautious.”

Up next

Monday: China trade data; earnings from BioNTech (BNTX), Take-Two (TTWO), Ryanair (RYAAY) and Lyft (LYFT)

Tuesday: US midterm elections; earnings from DuPont (DD), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Lordstown Motors, Disney (DIS), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), News Corp (NWS), IAC (IAC), AMC (AMC) and Novavax (NVAX)

Wednesday: China inflation data; earnings from D.R. Horton (DHI), Weibo (WB), Hanesbrands (HBI), Capri Holdings (CPRI), Roblox, SeaWorld (SEAS), Wendy’s (WEN), Redfin (RDFN) and Beyond Meat (BYND)

Thursday: US CPI; US weekly jobless claims; earnings from Nio (NIO), Ralph Lauren (RL), Tapestry (TPR), WeWork, Six Flags (SIX), Yeti (YETI) and Warby Parker

Friday: US bond market closed for Veterans Day; UK GDP; US U. of Michigan consumer sentiment; earnings from SoftBank (SFTBF)

Republicans seek to sabotage year-end spending bill | CNN Politics

CNN —

The government funding standoff gripping Washington ahead of Friday’s shutdown deadline is one of the first indicators of the coming shift in power dynamics that will return the capital to a governing cold war between congressional Republicans and a Democratic White House.

An omnibus spending bill that would avert the closure of the federal government would be one of the last acts of unified Democratic political control of Washington. But it’s being pushed to the last minute as the routine disputes between Republicans and Democrats over spending priorities are exacerbated by conservative Republicans who want to hold key decisions until the new Congress in January, when they hope to use their new House majority to cut spending.

It’s an early glimpse of the paralysis that could result from divided government with neither side having the power to fully deliver on promises they made to voters in last month’s midterm elections, when Republicans won the House and Democrats retained control of the Senate.

Some of these clashes, like disputes over funding social programs and the need to raise the government’s borrowing limit next year, threaten to shut the government or badly damage the US economy. This heralds a return of the government shutdown threats that were a regular holiday season tradition during the Obama administration after Republicans gained congressional majorities. And during Donald Trump’s administration, the government shut down for 35 days over the 2018-19 holiday season because of a dispute over the then-president’s demand for border wall funding – leaving federal workers furloughed and putting critical programs and services on hold.

This time, Republicans, especially in the House, believe that they have a mandate from voters to stem domestic spending on issues like Covid-19, climate change and other priorities that have characterized President Joe Biden’s administration. And even though Democrats control the House until the end of the post-election lame duck session, muscle-flexing GOP lawmakers want to use their new power now.

Democrats, meanwhile, understand that the government spending bill likely represents their last chance to enact Biden’s ambitious domestic plans until the next presidential election. The fraught final weeks of 2022 may also be their best opening to bypass the incoming GOP House by honoring Biden’s $37 billion request for new aid for Ukraine, which some conservatives oppose and which could be added to the government spending bill. Democratic leaders say the omnibus bill is urgently needed to fund police departments, to ease congestion at ports and to improve medical care for veterans and to help the US compete with China, among scores of other priorities. But Republicans argue domestic non-defense spending has already had a huge boost in Biden’s Covid-19 rescue measures and in his new climate and health care law.

The chances of a deal in the coming weeks hang in the balance and are creating a conflict between the need for good governance and politics – one that is usually resolved in bitterly divided Washington in favor of the latter force. The year-end government spending showdown – a classic example of Congress’ tendency to put off tough decisions until the last possible moment – is also being complicated by the need to pass the $858 billion National Defense Authorization Act. The House passed a version of the measure last week after ending Covid-19 vaccination mandates in the military in order to draw Republican votes.

Republicans’ grim prognosis for a deal with Democrats

In a sign of rising political pressure over the spending clash, a group of Republican senators wrote to GOP leader Mitch McConnell last week, laying out their strategy and urging him to block a big spending bill and to agree to a short-term funding package to keep the government open for a few weeks.

“For the Senate to ram through a so-called ‘omnibus’ bill—which would fund the entirety of the Pelosi-Schumer spending agenda through most of next year—would utterly disempower the new Republican House from enacting our shared priorities,” said the letter signed by six senators including Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida.

Their stance helps explain why McConnell last week gave a grim prognosis for a deal with Democrats on a big funding bill, commenting, “We don’t have agreements to do virtually anything. … We don’t even have an overall agreement on how much we’re going to spend, and we’re running out of time.”

There is one school of thought that the passage of a long-term funding mechanism might actually give House GOP leaders a break since a short-term deal would raise the possibility that one of the first acts of a new majority would be to trigger a government shutdown – a state of affairs that has often been politically damaging to the reputation of the party saddled with the blame. But House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is already under fierce pressure from the most radical members of his conference as he struggles to get enough votes to become speaker. He has little political leeway and has therefore been heaping public pressure on Senate Republicans to thwart Biden’s hopes of one more spending package, saying on Fox News earlier this month that once Republicans have the gavel in the House, “We would be stronger in every negotiation.”

His comments, while offering a glimpse of how he plans to preside over a confrontation with the White House, also offered insight into how the GOP House could make McConnell’s life more complicated next year as he tries to manage his party in the Senate.

Democrats are keen for one last show of power

Democrats are determined to get a government funding bill passed in the final days of their party’s House majority and are also gearing up for the battles that will unfold at the beginning of next year.

If lawmakers cannot agree on a deal, they will face the possibility of either passing a short-term spending bill to carry the debate into the new Congress or a longer-term continuing resolution that would extend current spending levels.

But a senior Biden administration official warned last week that even a funding deal that lasted a year would have “disastrous” consequences for key programs.

And on Sunday, Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats, implied that Republicans were trying to jam Democrats at the end of this year to kickstart their effort in the new GOP House to slash spending on vital social programs.

“Republicans see it as an opportunity to hold us hostage and get demands that, under normal circumstances, they would not,” Sanders said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“Look, they have not been shy about making it clear they want to cut Social Security, they want to cut Medicare, they want to cut Medicaid,” Sanders told Dana Bash.

Biden sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin up to Capitol Hill last week to brief senators on the war in Ukraine. But in a sign of the consuming nature of the spending showdown, Republicans emerged from the meeting complaining that the two secretaries spent time lobbying for an omnibus spending bill over a continuing resolution.

“It was a waste of their time. It was a waste of our time,” Louisiana Republican Sen. John Kennedy told reporters. He said that Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had asked Blinken and Austin to explain why the new spending bill was so necessary. “I knew as soon as Chuck said that. … this is just a political exercise,” Kennedy said.

Given the gulf between Democrats and Republicans who would be needed to back a spending deal in the Senate, it is increasingly likely that Congress may have to pass an ultra-short term measure to get past Friday’s deadline to allow for an extension in negotiations that would push lawmakers ever closer to the holidays.

“Bring your Yuletide carols and all that stuff here because we may be singing to each other,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the No. 2 Senate Republican, told reporters last week.

House passes sweeping gun reform package though it's unlikely to ...

CNN —

The House voted Wednesday 223-204 to pass a wide-ranging package of gun control legislation called the “Protecting Our Kids Act,” after lawmakers faced intense pressure to act in the wake of recent mass shootings.

Five Republicans voted for the bill: Reps. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio, Fred Upton of Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Chris Jacobs of New York. Two Democrats – Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Kurt Schrader of Oregon – voted against it.

The measure is not expected to pass the Senate, however, amid widespread GOP opposition to stricter gun control. A bipartisan group of senators is engaging in talks in an attempt to find common ground on gun policy, but it is still unclear what, if anything, will come of the effort. Passage of the legislation also took place hours after an emotional hearing on gun violence in which families of victims pleaded for more action.

The legislation that passed in the House includes a series of individual bills aimed at preventing gun violence. The measure would raise the legal age to buy certain semiautomatic centerfire rifles from 18 to 21 years old, establish new federal offenses for gun trafficking and for selling large-capacity magazines, and allow local governments to compensate individuals who surrender such magazines through a buyback program. It would create a tax incentive for retail sales of safe storage devices and criminal penalties for breaking new requirements regulating firearm storage on residential premises. The measure would also take steps to strengthen existing federal regulations on bump stocks and ghost guns.

Video Ad Feedback 'Spare me the bulls***': Democratic lawmaker fires back at GOP during hearing 02:45 - Source: CNN

“We are on a crusade for the children, and – sadly now – by the children. Children testifying in committee,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said during the floor debate in the House chamber, referencing Robb Elementary School fourth-grader Miah Cerrillo, who offered videotaped testimony before the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday morning. “America has lost more children from gun violence than any other cause. Does that embarrass you? To think that in our country, more children have died from gun violence than any other cause? These stories are tragically all too common in America today.”

Pelosi had requested in a Dear Colleague letter that her fellow Democrats be present in the chamber during the floor debate, but only about a quarter of the caucus was present as the debate began.

House Republicans railed against the legislation, describing the package as trampling on Americans’ rights.

“Here they come – going after law-abiding citizens’ Second Amendment liberties,” Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan said. “The speaker started by saying this bill is about protecting our kids. That is important. … That’s what she said, ‘protecting our kids is important.’ Yes, it is. But this bill doesn’t do it. What this bill does is take away second amendment rights, God-given rights, protected by our Constitution from law-abiding American citizens. That’s what this legislation does, and that’s why we should oppose it.”

Prior to the debate, the House took a procedural vote that also deemed as passed a resolution by Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York condemning the Buffalo mass shooting, and resolving that “the Great Replacement Theory as a White supremacist conspiracy theory, and reaffirming the House of Representatives commitment to combating White supremacy, hatred, and racial injustice.” His resolution also called out “many individuals in positions of power and media institutions with widely viewed public platforms” who have contributed to the normalization and legitimization of the underlying principles of the Great Replacement Theory.”

When asked why he didn’t insist on a separate floor vote on his resolution, Bowman said that “the bottom line for us is that the resolution passes, however it comes to the floor.”

“It’s something that is really important for Congress to take a position,” he said.

Earlier on Wednesday during a hearing before the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, family of gun violence victims and survivors called for legislative action on guns.

“Lawmakers who continuously allow these mass shootings to continue by not passing stricter gun laws should be voted out,” Zeneta Everhart, mother of Zaire Goodman, a survivor of the Buffalo supermarket shooting, said in her testimony.

“As an elected official it is your duty to draft legislation that protects Zaire and all of the children and citizens in this country.”

Biden administration scales back student loan forgiveness plan as ...

Washington CNN —

The Biden administration scaled back eligibility for its student loan forgiveness plan Thursday, the same day six Republican-led states sued President Joe Biden in an effort to block his student loan forgiveness plan from taking effect.

Borrowers whose federal student loans are guaranteed by the government but held by private lenders will now be excluded from receiving debt relief. Around 770,000 people will be affected by the change, according to an administration official.

The Department of Education initially said these loans, many of which were made under the former Federal Family Education Loan program and Federal Perkins Loan program, would be eligible for the one-time forgiveness action as long as the borrower consolidated his or her debt into the federal Direct loan program.

On Thursday, the department reversed course. According to its website, privately held federal student loans must have been consolidated before September 29 in order to be eligible for the debt relief.

Borrowers with privately held federal student loans who have not consolidated yet are currently out of luck, though the Department of Education said it “is assessing whether there are alternative pathways” to provide relief.

Borrowers with privately held federal student loans represent a small portion of the 43 million federal student loan borrowers. There are about 4 million borrowers with Federal Family Education Loans, but not all of those people are likely eligible for the loan forgiveness plan, which also includes an income requirement.

“Our goal is to provide relief to as many eligible borrowers as quickly and easily as possible, and this will allow us to achieve that goal while we continue to explore additional legally-available options to provide relief to borrowers with privately owned FFEL loans and Perkins loans, including whether FFEL borrowers could receive one-time debt relief without needing to consolidate,” the Department of Education said in an emailed statement.

“Borrowers with privately held federal student loans who applied to consolidate their loans into Direct Loans before September 29, 2022 will obtain one-time debt relief. The FFEL program is now defunct and only a small percentage of borrowers have FFEL loans. This is a completely different program than Direct Loans,” the statement said.

Lawsuit argues forgiveness will hurt loan servicers

The lawsuit was filed in a federal court in Missouri by state attorneys general from Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina, as well as legal representatives from Iowa.

“In addition to being economically unwise and inherently unfair, the Biden Administration’s Mass Debt Cancellation is another example in a long line of unlawful regulatory actions. No statute permits President Biden to unilaterally relieve millions of individuals from their obligation to pay loans they voluntarily assumed,” Nebraska Attorney General Doug Peterson’s office said in a news release.

The plaintiffs argued that student loan servicers – including the Higher Education Loan Authority of the State of Missouri, known as MOHELA – are harmed by Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan. It argues that the plan creates an incentive for borrowers to consolidate Federal Family Education Loans owned by MOHELA into Direct Loans owned by the government, “depriving them (MOHELA) of the ongoing revenue it earns from servicing those loans,” according to the lawsuit.

But the Department of Education’s move to exclude borrowers with privately held federal loans from the student loan forgiveness plan could weaken that legal argument, said Luke Herrine, an assistant law professor at the University of Alabama who previously worked on a legal strategy pushing for student debt cancellation.

The White House continues to argue that its student loan forgiveness plan is legal.

“Republican officials from these six states are standing with special interests, and fighting to stop relief for borrowers buried under mountains of debt,”said White House spokesman Abdullah Hasan in an emailed statement.

“The President and his administration are lawfully giving working and middle class families breathing room as they recover from the pandemic and prepare to resume loan payments in January,” he said.

Federal student loan payments have been paused since March 2020, thanks to a pandemic-related benefit. The pause expires on December 31.

Earlier this week, a public interest lawyer who is also a student loan borrower, sued the Biden administration over the student loan forgiveness plan, arguing that the policy is an abuse of executive power and that it would stick him with a bigger state tax bill.

How Biden’s plan will work

Under Biden’s plan, individual borrowers who earned less than $125,000 in either 2020 or 2021 and married couples or heads of households who made less than $250,000 annually in those years will see up to $10,000 of their federal student loan debt forgiven.

If a qualifying borrower also received a federal Pell grant while enrolled in college, the individual is eligible for up to $20,000 of debt forgiveness. Pell grants are awarded to millions of low-income students each year, based on factors that include their family’s size and income and the cost charged by their college. These borrowers are also more likely to struggle to repay their student debt and end up in default.

The administration is expected to roll out the first wave of student loan forgiveness in October.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated this week – before the administration excluded FFEL borrowers – that Biden’s plan could cost the government $400 billion but warned that the estimate relies on several assumptions and is “highly uncertain.”

Estimating the cost of student debt forgiveness is complicated because loans are generally paid back over several years. The White House argues that the CBO’s estimate should be looked at over a 30-year time frame.

Untested legal waters

Biden announced the forgiveness plan in August, after facing mounting pressure from Democrats to forgive some student loan debt. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren repeatedly called on the President to cancel up to $50,000 in student loan debt per borrower.

But canceling federal student loan debt so broadly is unprecedented and, until now, has yet to be tested in court. Biden initially urged Congress to take action to cancel some student debt, rather than wade into a murky legal area himself, but Democrats don’t have the votes to pass such legislation.

In a Department of Education memo released in August, the Biden administration argued that the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students Act of 2003 – or Heroes Act – grants the Education Secretary the power to cancel student debt to help address the financial harm suffered due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Heroes Act, which was enacted in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, “provides the Secretary broad authority to grant relief from student loan requirements during specific periods,” including a war, other military operation or national emergency, according to the memo.

The lawsuit filed Thursday argues that the Heroes Act does not grant the President such broad authority.

What happens next

Additional lawsuits challenging Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan could be forthcoming. Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, a Republican, has said he is working on developing the best legal theory to sue the administration over the action.

A conservative advocacy group called the Job Creators Network is also weighing its legal options, planning to file a lawsuit once the Department of Education formalizes the student loan forgiveness plan next month.

But some legal experts are skeptical that a legal challenge to Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan could be successful.

Abby Shafroth, staff attorney at the nonprofit National Consumer Law Center, previously told CNN that she believes the merits of the Biden administration’s legal statutory authority are strong and that it’s unclear who would have legal standing to bring a case and want to do so. Standing to bring a case is a procedural threshold requiring that an injury be inflicted on a plaintiff to justify a lawsuit.

If the standing hurdle is cleared, a case would be heard by a district court first – which may or may not issue a preliminary injunction to prevent the cancellation from occurring before a final ruling is issued on the merits of the hypothetical case.

Several recent US Supreme Court decisions have touched on executive power, limiting the federal government’s authority to implement new rules. While the Supreme Court takes up a small number of cases each year, lower courts may look at what the justices have said in those cases when assessing the Department of Education’s authority.

This story has been updated with additional information.

Recap: Biden says aerial objects 'most likely' private balloons

President Joe Biden said Thursday the administration continues to study a series of unidentified flying objects shot down in recent days but that intelligence officials increasingly believe they were benign balloons used for research or commercial purposes.

Biden said the intelligence community's current assessment is that three objects shot down over North American airspace were "most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation or research institutions." That does not include the Chinese spy balloon the U.S military shot down in early February.

Also, parts of the long-awaited report by a Georgia grand jury investigating former President Donald Trump and his allies were released Thursday. The grand jury recommended some witnesses should face perjury charges for lying and found there was no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.

Here's what else is happening in politics:

Former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has been subpoenaed by the Justice Department's special counsel investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, according to media reports.

has been subpoenaed by the Justice Department's special counsel investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, according to media reports. Haley in New Hampshire: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley holds two events in the Granite State this week after officially launching her 2024 White House campaign.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley holds two events in the Granite State this week after officially launching her 2024 White House campaign. A presidential physical : President Joe Biden had a routine medical checkup as he eyes a second term as president.

: President Joe Biden had a routine medical checkup as he eyes a second term as president. Debt ceiling needs to be raised by summer, CBO says: The Congressional Budget Office said the U.S. Treasury will run out of money as soon as July as the president and House Speaker McCarthy continue to spar over the debt ceiling and federal spending.

Haley in N.H.: Chinese spy balloon a 'massive national embarrassment'

Republican presidential hopeful and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley appeared to criticize President Joe Biden over the Chinese spy balloon saga while on the campaign trail in New Hampshire Thursday.

“The idea that Americans will look to the sky and see a Chinese spy balloon flying over us is nothing more than a massive national embarrassment,” Haley said, to raucous applause during a town hall event in Exeter.

“The number one threat we have is China,” continued Haley, to more cheers.

– Ken Tran

GOP 2024 race:For Nikki Haley, New Hampshire presents challenges and opportunities

Biden’s neurological exam shows no brain disorders, motor weakness

As part of his physical, Biden underwent an “extremely detailed” neurological exam that Kevin O’Connor, the president’s doctor, said uncovered no findings consistent with a brain or central neurological disorder, such as a stroke, multiple sclerosis or Parkinson’s Disease.

The exam did show a “mild peripheral neuropathy” in both feet, O’Connor said. Biden did not demonstrate any motor weakness, the physician said, but showed a subtle difference in heat/cold sensation. O’Connor stressed that Biden’s symptoms haven’t progressed and have actually improved since his last exam.

From the time Biden campaigned for the presidency in 2020, Republican critics including former President Donald Trump have demanded that Biden take a cognitive test to demonstrate his mental fitness.

– Joey Garrison and Michael Collins

Biden remains ‘healthy, vigorous 80-year-old,’ White House doctor says after physical

President Joe Biden remains a "healthy, vigorous 80-year-old male who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency," the White House physician said Thursday after the president received his first physical in a year and a half.

One small lesion, however, was removed from the president's chest during the examination and will be sent for a traditional biopsy, Biden's physician, Kevin O'Connor, said in a letter that otherwise mostly reflected his last medical checkup from November 2021.

Biden's routine physical has taken on extra scrutiny as the octogenarian is widely expected to announce a reelection bid in the coming weeks or months. Already the oldest person to assume the presidency, Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term.

O’Connor observed that Biden’s gait remains stiff but has not worsened in the past year. He also has occasional bouts of gastroesophageal reflux, which cause him to clear his throat often and may contribute to occasional cough and sinus congestion, the report said.

Biden weighs 178 pounds and had a blood pressure rate of 128/76 and pulse rate of 69, the physician’s report said. That's six pounds less than the 184 pounds he weighed in 2021.

– Joey Garrison and Michael Collins

Biden health update:President remains 'healthy, vigorous 80-year-old,' White House doctor says

Sen. Fetterman checks into hospital for 'severe depression'

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Penn., was checked into Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for clinical depression, according to his office.

“While John has experience depression off and on throughout his life, it only became severe in recent weeks,” Adam Jentleson, his chief of staff, said in a statement Thursday.

The Pennsylvania Democrat, who suffered a stroke during the 2022 campaign, was discharged from another hospital earlier this month after reportedly feeling lightheaded during a Democratic retreat.

Fetterman’s office said he did not suffer from another stroke.

– Phillip M. Bailey

Biden says unidentified objects likely not related to China or foreign surveillance

President Joe Biden said the three unidentified objects shot down over North American airspace were likely not related to China’s balloon surveillance program, but likely tied to either “private companies, recreation or research institutions.”

“We don’t yet know exactly what these three objects were but nothing right now suggests they were related to China’s spy balloon program or that they were surveillance vehicles from another country,” Biden said in remarks on the takedowns that occurred over the last weekend.

“The intelligence community's current assessment is that these three objects were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation or research institutions studying weather or conducting other scientific research,” said Biden.

– Ken Tran

Supreme Court removes Title 42 immigration case from its calendar

The Supreme Court on Thursday removed from its calendar a major case involving a pandemic-era policy that allows for the rapid removal of migrants, known as Title 42.

The high court took the unusual step without explanation, though the Biden administration argued in a brief this month that the case might become moot given that it intends to cancel emergency declarations tied to COVID-19 the program relies on.

The justices had been set to hear arguments in the case March 1.

The administration intends to end the pandemic-era policy that allows for the rapid removal of migrants. And in November, a federal court required the administration to stop those removals. But a group of conservative state officials who say their states would be adversely affected want to step into the case and defend the use of Title 42.

– John Fritze

McConnell: Balloon briefings lack 'any useful information'

Ahead of President Biden’s remarks on the unknown objects being shot down over the U.S. in recent days, the Senate’s top Republican said Thursday the closed-door intelligence briefings from the administration have been rather useless.

“It’s perplexing,” Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said on Fox News.

“We’ve been in these briefings," he said. "But they don’t seem to know anything.”

McConnell ramping up the criticism on Biden, a longtime friend, comes as Republican and Democratic officials have said the White House needs to provide more information.

“I’ve never been in briefings where I’ve learned so little,” he said.

– Phillip M. Bailey

President Biden to give speech on balloon, flying objects shot down

President Joe Biden will deliver remarks Thursday on a series of unidentified flying objects shot down in recent days that intelligence officials increasingly believe were benign balloons used for research or commercial purposes.

The White House said Biden’s remarks on "the United States' response to recent aerial objects" will take place at 2 p.m. E.T. at the White House.

It will mark Biden’s first major address on the Chinese spy balloon shot down in the Atlantic Ocean and three subsequent objects shot down over North American airspace. Biden has faced bipartisan pressure from lawmakers to give a national address on the objects, which he has only sparingly discussed when asked by reporters.

– Joey Garrison

Georgia grand jury finds no evidence of election fraud

Little information was revealed Thursday in a much-abbreviated disclosure of a Georgia grand jury examination of election fraud in the 2020 election, though the panel found no evidence of election fraud.

“We find by unanimous vote that no widespread fraud took place in the Georgia 2020 presidential election that could result' in overturning that election,” the panel concluded in perhaps the only notable conclusion contained in the nine-page release.

– Kevin Johnson

More about the investigation:New details of Georgia Trump investigation to be revealed Thursday. What we know.

Trump has slight edge on DeSantis among voters, national poll finds

Among a field of 14 Republicans considered as potential GOP presidential nominees, a new poll finds former President Donald Trump lands top of the group with Republican voters – edging out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is seen as the top competitor for Trump.

Trump received 42% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters while DeSantis received 36%, according to a new Quinnipiac University national poll released Thursday. However, Trump’s lead over DeSantis erodes slightly with a smaller candidate pool.

With only four potentially candidates to pick from, including former Vice President Mike Pence and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump only leads DeSantis by 2 percentage points, 43%-41% – a lead that falls within the poll's margin of error.

– Sarah Elbeshbishi

Georgia grand jury recommends perjury charges against witnesses who appeared to lie in testimony

The section of the Georgia grand jury report released Thursday dealing with alleged lies from witnesses recommended perjury charges against unnamed witnesses.

In its entirety, it says: “A majority of the Grand Jury believes that perjury may have been committed by one or more witnesses testifying before it. The Grand Jury recommends that the District Attorney seek appropriate indictments for such crimes where the evidence is compelling.”

The witnesses were not named. Legal experts say perjury is rarely charged because it is difficult to prove, but that perjury charges could be used to build a larger case of conspiracy.

– Bart Jansen

Witnesses in Georgia Trump probe suspected lying:Raising more questions in closely watched inquiry

Georgia grand jury heard from 75 witnesses

The Georgia grand jury tasked with investigating former President Donald Trump’s attempts to interfere in the 2020 election was presented evidence from or involving 75 witnesses, according to a part of the grand jury’s final report released Thursday.

The grand jury was empaneled on May 2 and heard evidence from June to December.

– Ella Lee

Read the partial Georgia grand jury report about the Trump investigation

Part of Georgia Trump grand jury report released

A Georgia grand jury’s report examining former President Donald Trump’s attempts to interfere in the 2020 election was partially released Thursday.

USA TODAY reporters are reading through the report, and updates will follow shortly.

– Ella Lee

Trump lawyer Eastman asks to delay California bar charge proceedings

John Eastman – the lawyer who spearheaded an effort to use slates of fake electors in battleground states to overturn the 2020 election in favor of former President Donald Trump – asked the state bar of California to delay any proceedings against him until he is no longer at risk of criminal investigation so that he would not have to invoke his Fifth Amendment right against self incrimination.

“To the extent Respondent is under threat of criminal prosecution, implicating his Fifth Amendment rights, abatement of the disciplinary proceeding is arguably necessary to protect his rights and is within the Bar Court's discretion to order,” Eastman’s attorneys wrote in a filing Wednesday.

California’s state bar in January said it would seek to revoke Eastman’s law license for violating his duty to uphold the U.S. and California state constitutions in an attempt to “usurp the will of the American people and overturn election results for the highest office in the land.”

Eastman holds law licenses from both D.C. and California.

– Ella Lee

Deputy AG announces 'strike force' to combat foreign technology threats

A new initiative between the Justice and Commerce departments will combat threats to national security posed by the use of “disruptive technologies” by foreign adversaries.

The Disruptive Technology Strike Force, announced Thursday by Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, will use intelligence and data analytics to “target illicit actors, enhance public-private partnerships to harden supply chains.” It will also work to catch early warning signs of threats to critical assets like semiconductors.

The announcement comes as the Biden administration looks to answer GOP calls to crack down on growing threats from China.

“Our goal is simple but essential – to strike back against adversaries trying to siphon our best technology,” Monaco said.

– Ella Lee

DOJ special counsel issues subpoena to ex-Trump chief Mark Meadows

Former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has been subpoenaed by the Justice Department's special counsel investigating Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, according to media reports.

The summons for Meadows, a central figure in Trump's campaign to cling to power, was disclosed as former Vice President Mike Pence said Wednesday that he would challenge a separate subpoena from special counsel Jack Smith seeking his testimony in the Jan. 6 inquiry.

The Meadows' subpoena was first reported by CNN.

The Justice Department declined comment. Meadows and his lawyers also did not respond to requests for comment.

– Kevin Johnson

Voter fraud case:State A.G.: Meadows, former Trump chief of staff, won’t face voter fraud charges in North Carolina

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to travel to U.S.-Mexico border

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is expected to travel to Arizona Thursday in his first visit to the U.S.-Mexico border since his January election as speaker in the newly Republican-led lower chamber.

Four GOP freshman lawmakers are set to accompany him: Reps. Juan Ciscomani, of Arizona, Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin.

The visit will include a briefing with agents from the U.S. Border Patrol's Tucson sector, which covers most of Arizona's border with Mexico, as well as an aerial tour of the border in Cochise County, according to Ciscomani’s district director, C.J. Karamargin.

– Rafael Carranza, Arizona Republic; Ella Lee

More:House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to visit Arizona border

FEC complaint: George Santos staffer posed as McCarthy aide to raise money

WASHINGTON— A staffer from George Santos' campaign posed as a top aide to House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy to raise campaign funds — and kept up the front over the course of two campaign cycles, according to a complaint filed with the Federal Election Commission Wednesday.

The complaint, filed by liberal political action committee End Citizens United, alleges McCarthy's office was aware since 2021 the campaign staffer was impersonating the then-minority leader's chief of staff.

The new complaint is the latest sign of trouble for the freshman Republican from New York, who has stepped down from his committee assignments, but has doubled down on his refusal to leave Congress despite calls for his resignation.

– Rachel Looker

Campaign allegation:FEC Complaint: New York GOP Rep. George Santos staffer posed as McCarthy aide to raise money

Proud Boys trial evidence: D.C. police lieutenant warned group’s leader ahead of pre-Jan. 6 arrest

A Washington, D.C., police lieutenant warned Proud Boys leader Henry “Enrique” Tarrio that a warrant for his arrest for setting fire to a Black Lives Matter banner had been signed ahead of his arrest, according to evidence presented in federal court Wednesday during the sedition trial of five Proud Boys.

Prosecutors in the high-profile trial showed messages between Tarrio, one of the five defendants, and Metropolitan Police Lt. Shane Lamond, suggesting Lamond kept Tarrio in the loop about the police department’s investigations into him and other Proud Boys.

The Proud Boys on trial are charged with sedition and other alleged crimes in connection with the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

– Ella Lee

Tipster case:D.C. police lieutenant warned Proud Boys leader ahead of pre-Jan. 6 arrest: trial evidence

In Iowa, Mike Pence vows to resist special counsel's 'unconstitutional' subpoena

Former Vice President Mike Pence vowed Wednesday to resist special counsel Jack Smith’s decision to subpoena his testimony in his investigation into Donald Trump’s efforts to subvert the 2020 election, calling the move “unprecedented and unconstitutional.”

“We'll stand on that principle, and we'll take that case as far as it needs to go — if need be to the Supreme Court of the United States,” Pence said at an event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. “Because to me, it's an issue of the separation of powers."

Pence argued he is shielded by the Constitution’s “speech or debate clause,” which protects members of Congress from law enforcement scrutiny over their speech and debate in the chamber. The clause says they “shall not be questioned in any other place.”

– Brianne Pfannenstiel

More:In Iowa, Mike Pence vows to resist special counsel's subpoena in Trump 2020 investigation

Biden, McCarthy spar over debt after CBO releases new projections

President Joe Biden on Wednesday accused Republicans of supporting tax cuts for the wealthy and other policies that would add $3 trillion to the national debt, pushing back on their demands for spending cuts as part of raising the debt ceiling.

Biden, speaking at an electrical workers union hall in Lanham Md., singled out Republican efforts to extend expiring Trump-era tax cuts for high-income earners and corporations, which would add a projected $2.7 trillion in debt. “It would explode the deficit and leave the American taxpayer holding the bag,” he said.

His remarks came after the Congressional Budget Office released an updated budget outlook that projects the U.S. will add more than $19 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, $3 trillion more than was projected last year.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy fired back in a tweet, saying Biden’s policies have led to $13 trillion in new spending and renewing his call to “negotiate a responsible debt limit increase that gets our fiscal house back in order.”

“Democrats' reckless spending is plunging our country into deeper debt & jeopardizing our economy,” McCarthy said. “A blank check for more spending will destroy our country.”

– Joey Garrison

Debt ceiling debate:Debt limit forecast says US could be in default by summer. Here's how that could impact you

Not just Haley: South Carolina's Tim Scott is also mulling presidential bid

Nikki Haley might not be the only politician from South Carolina to run for president in 2024.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the Senate's only Black Republican, has hired new political aides and is planning a trip to Iowa, all stoking speculation that he may also jump into next year's Republican race.

Scott allies are mum on whether he will take the plunge.

“These next few weeks Senator Scott will not just talk about his faith, but also why he has faith in America," said Jennifer DeCasper, a senior adviser to the South Carolina senator. "He is excited to share his vision of hope and opportunity and hear the American people’s response.”

Asked about Scott's campaign-like activity, aides stayed mum.

– David Jackson

Susan Page:How do you challenge Trump for the nomination? With Nikki Haley in, let's count the ways.

As nation reels from Michigan shooting, courts wrestle with access to guns

Should the government be able to take guns from Americans who smoke marijuana? What about people who are the subject of domestic violence protective orders?

A federal appeals court in Philadelphia grappled Wednesday with a case that questions whether Americans who have committed nonviolent felonies can be denied access to guns. It’s one of several such cases questioning who can be denied access to weapons that are percolating in federal courts in the wake of a landmark Supreme Court ruling last year on the Second Amendment.

The case in Philadelphia, which deals with a man who has been denied access to guns after making false statements to boost his food stamp assistance nearly three decades ago, comes as the nation is reeling from another mass shooting. Three Michigan State University students were killed and five others were wounded in a shooting Monday night.

– John Fritze

Gun access:As nation reels from Michigan State shooting, courts wrestle with access to guns

Georgia grand jury concerned witnesses lied in Trump investigation

A Georgia grand jury investigating former President Donald Trump will release parts of a long-awaited report Thursday, including a section mentioning concerns that some witnesses appeared to lie during the investigation.

Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney ordered the release of parts of the report and said it “discusses the concern that some witnesses may have lied under oath during their testimony to the grand jury.” But he said the witnesses wouldn’t be named.

Even so, legal experts said the section on alleged lies on could allow prosecutors to pursue perjury charges against the witnesses and potentially broaden the investigation. “That expands the scope of potential defendants quite a bit,” said Clark Cunningham, a law professor at Georgia State University.

– Bart Jansen

Parts of Georgia grand jury report to be made public Thursday

A Georgia judge is set to provide a first – albeit abbreviated – look Thursday at a grand jury's examination of former President Donald Trump's attempts to interfere in the 2020 election.

Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney ruled earlier this week that three sections of the panel's report would be made public Thursday, including a passage expressing concerns that some witnesses may have lied under oath.

Yet much of the panel's work, including specific charging recommendations and names of the witnesses suspected of lying, will remain under seal as Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis continues an inquiry launched two years ago.

Willis opened the investigation shortly after Donald Trump's extraordinary Jan. 2, 2021 conversation with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger went viral, later expanding the inquiry into a far-reaching criminal examination into election fraud and impaneling a special grand jury in May.

– Kevin Johnson

Biden's final message second-guessed by Democrats before election

WASHINGTON – Joe Biden crisscrossed the stage for a half-hour before he delivered his gravest warning yet.

The president – his right hand holding a microphone, his left casually in his suit pocket – returned to the podium and paused.

"This is really deadly earnest, man," Biden told the Florida Memorial University crowd during a campaign rally last week in Miami. "Democracy is on the ballot this year. Along with your right to choose and the right to privacy."

Biden has spent the final days of an uphill midterm campaign for Democrats imploring that modern-day Republicans are uniquely dangerous – willing to destroy democracy to gain power, ban abortion nationally, cut Social Security and Medicare and, if they don't get their way on entitlements, crash the economy by forcing the government into default.

More:Amid midterm voting, Biden warns of 'chaos,' fears of political violence ahead of Nov. 8 election

In his closing argument to halt Republican momentum before Tuesday's election, Biden has painted a dark picture of a possible "mega MAGA Republican" Congress. "This ain't your father's Republican Party," he's stressed repeatedly, focusing less on his own accomplishments and more on the intentions of his opponents.

Yet there are serious doubts, including among Democrats, whether Biden's doomsday portrayal of Republicans has broken through as stubborn inflation and pocketbook issues weigh on voters. Some in the party say Democrats should have touched more on economic concerns earlier in the campaign and less about restoring abortion rights, which dominated Democratic ads for much of the race, in part on the advice of the "governing consulting class."

"That was a mistake," said Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., arguing Democrats should compare Biden's efforts to bring manufacturing jobs home versus Republicans who want tax cuts for corporations. "I've been saying for months that we need to frame this election as an economic choice."

More:As midterms loom, what's shaping undecided voters' opinions in 5 charts

To defy headwinds of 40-year high inflation and the historical trend of midterm losses for the party in the White House, Biden has tried to appeal to undecided voters by arguing "this is no ordinary year."

"So, I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we're in," Biden said in a primetime speech last week. "In a typical year, we're often not faced with questions of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put us at risk."

But there's an underlying challenge with Biden's depiction of a Republican takeover, according to Lynn Vavreck, professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA: many voters remember previous periods of Republican power in Congress not being especially catastrophic.

"It's sort of like saying, 'Trust me, this time it'll be really different if they take over. The country will never be the same,'" Vavreck said. "It's a lot of hyperbole. And you're asking voters to believe something that the past suggests may not be true."

How Biden has tried to defy midterm gravity

Republicans are widely favored to gain control of at the House, according to most analysts, and have an increasingly stronger outlook to take the Senate, with races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and a few other battlegrounds deciding control. Some Democrats have openly discussed fears of a "red wave" election that would deliver a party still dominated by Donald Trump sweeping victories.

Republican control of even one legislative body would be enough to block Biden's legislative agenda on taxes, abortion, voting reforms and other priorities. If Republicans take over both chambers, only Biden's veto pen would stand in the way of the GOP passing a host of conservative laws.

More:Schumer captured on hot mic telling Biden that Georgia Senate race is 'going downhill' for Democrats

Republican candidates have focused their attacks against Democrats on crime in cities, migrants at the southern border and, above all, inflation that's at 8.2% over last year – even as corporate profits hit a 70-year high. Robert Gibbs, who served as press secretary in the Obama White House, said the "here and now" of inflation has made Biden's warnings about a GOP takeover hard to stick.

"It's just tough to make the argument of 'if these guys get into power, here's the things they'll end up doing' versus, 'hey, bread was really expensive in Aisle 4,'" said Gibbs, speaking on the podcast hosted by former Obama advisor David Axelrod.

Tuesday's election is the first national election since the Jan.6 assault on the U.S. Capitol led by Trump supporters. It's also the first election since the Supreme Court's decision in June that struck down abortion rights.

"This election is not a referendum. It's a choice," Biden has said frequently in a push to make the race not about his popularity, with approval ratings in the low 40s, but instead Democrats' vision versus Trumpism.

More:As recession fears weigh on midterms, Biden warns Republicans will 'crash the economy' if they win control

In a final gasp to blunt Republicans' polling edge on the economy, Biden has taken aim at House Republican leaders who have suggested they might use the debt ceiling as "leverage" to achieve their goals on Social Security and Medicare.

"Now they’ve come forward with a real ticking time bomb. This one is outrageous, " Biden said in Hallandale Beach, Florida. "Nothing will create more chaos and do more damage to the American economy than playing around with whether we pay our national bills."

Second-guessing begins

For much of the summer, Democrats outperformed expectations in midterm polling and in congressional special elections, a sign that women and suburban voters were motivated by restoring abortion rights.

But the dynamics appeared to shift about a month ago. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll taken Oct. 19 to Oct. 24 found 37% of likely midterm voters ranked inflation as their top concern, compared with 18% who said abortion.

More:Exclusive poll: Republican support rises ahead of Election Day, with inflation driving voters

Democratic ads haven't reflected that trend, however. Democratic candidates and the party's outside groups have spent a combined $424 million in advertising this election cycle focused on abortion, about eight times the $53 million spent on economic-themed ads, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm.

Some Democrats are second-guessing that decision.

"We're getting crushed on narrative," California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, said in an interview with CBS, arguing Democrats leaned too much into abortion rights, allowing Republicans to win the "messaging war." He said he worries about a red wave Tuesday. "You feel it," Newsom said.

Craig Varoga, a longtime Democratic strategist for congressional races, said, "If we have made any kind of mistake, it's the fact that we haven't talked about all of these assaults on American freedom." He pointed to Democrats' siloed messages on abortion, the economy, and threats to democracy. "We probably should have done a better job of pulling it all together."

Biden's speech on democracy at risk was widely viewed as a play to the Democratic base.

"Number one, he absolutely believes it. And number two, it's a motivator to get Democrats out to vote," said veteran Democratic strategist Bob Shrum.

More:Inflation, health care and rent: key economic factors voters consider in midterms

But some progressives questioned whether another speech on democracy – his second on the topic in two months – was the right move.

"If you're going to vote on democracy and the frailty of democracy, if you're going to vote on abortion, a lot of those people have made their decision," Faiz Shakir, an adviser to independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, said in an appearance on MSNBC. "The persuasion audience, the people who haven't decided, they are all in on economy."

Sidelined from most battlegrounds states

Biden is a full-contact campaigner, known for hugging supporters, telling stories about life in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and giving fiery speeches about the little guy.

But he's not been at the center of action this cycle.

"Hello, New Mexico," Biden said last week from a community in Albuquerque New Mexico, hardly ground zero for the midterm campaign despite having one competitive congressional race.

Saddled by low approval ratings, Biden has avoided most battleground Senates states, making no trips in the final weeks to Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and New Hampshire or appearances with its Democratic Senate nominees. An exception is Pennsylvania, where Biden has roots and Senate nominee John Fetterman has needed help to turn out Black voters.

Biden and former President Barack Obama joined Fetterman for a rally Saturday in Philadelphia. But typically, it's just been Obama, alone, as Democrats' chief-stumper in the bulk of states that will decide Senate control.

Obama, speaking Wednesday in Phoenix, lambasted the Republican "cast of characters" running in Arizona.

"If you've got an election denier serving as your governor, as your senator, as your secretary of state, as your attorney general, then democracy, as we know it, may not survive in Arizona," Obama said.

Biden's 2024 planning underway

A Republican takeover of the House would significantly impede what the White House can pass legislatively for the next two years, perhaps forcing Biden to turn more to executive authority on climate, guns and other areas.

It could also open the door to investigations into the business dealings of Biden's son, Hunter Biden, which House Republicans have openly discussed, and build pressure from Trump-aligned House Republicans to impeach Joe Biden.

Democrats dread the thought.

"There will be no governing in the House if Republicans take over," Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told Politico. "I'm pretty apocalyptic about what the House will look like if Marjorie Taylor Green is in charge. It's an absolute nightmare if Republicans win."

A Republican takeover of the Senate and House would be widely interpreted as a repudiation of the Biden presidency, fueling more questions about whether Biden will seek reelection in 2024. Biden has said it's his "intention" to run but hasn't formally announced a bid.

More:Outnumbered Republican women raise cash to combat well-funded Democrats on Election Day

Behind the scenes, the president has started to prepare for a reelection campaign in meetings this fall with a small team of his most trusted aides, according to a Biden adviser. Preliminary work, which has explored a Trump rematch and other potential Republican nominees, has included outreach to veterans of Obama's and Bill Clinton's reelection campaigns.

"If we weren't engaged in planning in November of this year, we should be in the political malpractice hall of fame," Anita Dunn, one of Biden's closest advisers, said at a recent discussion hosted by Axios.

More:The question Democrats keep struggling with: Should Biden run again in 2024?

It's unclear when Biden will make a decision on 2024, but Biden could face pressure from Democrats to announce his intentions quickly if Democrats lose Congress and Trump enters the race, as he's indicated he will.

Associates of Trump said they expect the former president to announce his candidacy shortly after Tuesday's Election Day.

An early announcement this month by Trump wouldn't affect Biden's timing on a 2024 decision, according to people in Biden's orbit.

Although a midterm loss for a second-year president would follow the historical norm, Biden's circumstances are different than his predecessors: Biden, already the oldest serving president, will turn 80 on Nov. 20. Some members of his own party have said he should serve only one term. And Biden himself has left the door open that he might pass on another run.

Still, those who know Biden insist Democratic losses Tuesday wouldn't influence his decision.

"Look, I've known him for almost 50 years. And he wanted to be president when he was young," said Shrum, a past consultant for Biden and senior adviser for the presidential campaigns of Al Gore and John Kerry. "Assuming he's healthy, I don't think he's going to walk away."

More:Biden: If voters feel he's 'missing a beat' due to age, they should 'support some other Democrat' in 2024

Reach Joey Garrison on Twitter @joeygarrison.