Liz Truss' resignation leaves a party in tatters and a nation in despair ...

London CNN —

Even by recent standards, Thursday was a jaw-dropping day in British politics.

Liz Truss, a born-again Brexiteer who took over from Boris Johnson a mere six weeks ago, announced that she was to resign. In her wake, she leaves an economic crisis precipitated by a “growth plan” full of unfunded tax cuts, and a Conservative Party that may be in office, but is most certainly not wielding much power.

It is hard to overstate just how much impact Truss’ accession to the top job had on British politics in such a short space of time. Her radical economic policy proposals – even before they were even enacted – caused the pound to sink to its lowest level against the dollar in decades.

The turmoil caused government bonds to soar, which had a negative impact on government borrowing and, more perilously, real people’s pension funds. The rise in interest rates forced up mortgage repayments, and lenders scrambled to pull their products from the market, dashing the hopes of prospective homeowners almost overnight.

Faced with the fury of her own party – for whom fiscal discipline had, for so long, been a watchword – Truss capitulated. She sacked her finance minister, lost her home secretary and has created even more divisions in a party that has been tearing itself to shreds ever since the 2016 Brexit vote.

It was only a matter of time before she was forced out.

Politicians across the divide are asking the same question that the majority of the country are probably asking themselves: What on earth happens now?

What we know for certain is that the UK will have a new prime minister by the end of next week. That person will be chosen, again, by the Conservative Party – its members of parliament and its grassroots members — rather than the general public. It is a state of affairs that has infuriated the opposition Labour party, which is demanding a general election.

That won’t happen. The Conservative Party’s poll ratings are at a record low, and as the date of an election is within the government’s gift, these turkeys won’t be voting for Christmas.

So, the party will drag itself through another leadership election and a second prime minister in as many months. At least it will be swift: Party managers want it all over by the end of next week.

Who might stand is currently a bit of a mystery. CNN was told by allies of former prime minister Boris Johnson that he is considering what would be an astonishing comeback, despite resigning in disgrace just a few months ago.

While people close Johnson are making the case that he is the only candidate who could truly unite a bitterly divided party, others are quick to say that there was a good reason he was forced from office.

Those reasons, for those with short memories, are that he was hit by so many scandals – from breaking his own Covid regulations to installing someone with a reputation for sexual harassment as his deputy chief whip – that his position as leader of the UK was simply untenable.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson makes a speech outside 10 Downing Street, London on his last day in office. Stefan Rousseau/PA Images/Getty Images

Unity candidates?

Former allies who left Johnson’s side after things got too much say that installing him would leave the Conservatives open to quite a simple line of attack: why is this person who was proven to be wholly unfit for high office suddenly the best person to lead the country?

Both Conservative MPs who fear a Johnson return and officials from the opposition Labour Party pointed out to CNN that Johnson is also under investigation as to whether he deliberately misled parliament over the so-called Partygate scandal.

There are other options for unity candidates. Penny Mordaunt, one of Truss’s cabinet ministers, is thought to be weighing up running for the job. She is a Brexiteer who is popular across the party and regarded as a sensible moderate who would take a calm approach to leadership. She openly criticized Truss’s leadership while in her cabinet by saying she wanted to see welfare payments rise in line with inflation at a time of serious tension in the party, which will have won her praise from Truss critics.

There’s Rishi Sunk, the former finance minister, whose resignation from cabinet was thought to be the catalyst for Johnson’s downfall over the summer. He was Truss’s final rival in the leadership contest and is loathed by Johnson’s supporters, so his elevation would likely be unpopular with large parts of the party.

And being popular with the party – MPs and members – is going to be critical for whoever takes over. Divisions over everything from Brexit to fiscal discipline has made a party with a large parliamentary majority virtually ungovernable.

Leaving aside the personal dislike people might have of individuals like Johnson, Truss or Sunak, the sense that the Conservative Party is an untamed beast charging from one crisis to the next has created the impression that it is in terminal decline.

Conservative MPs and officials are utterly despondent. If you even compare Truss’s resignation to Johnson’s, just a few weeks before, there were no supportive MPs lining the streets or army of supporters smiling on. It was a bleak, cold speech to a quiet Downing Street.

A large number of Conservative MPs think that the party has absolutely no hope of winning the next general election. And seeing as calling a general election is something in the government’s gift, that means clinging to power as long as possible in the vague hope that things will improve.

The Labour Party has gone in the space of a few short weeks from believing itself to be an upbeat government-in-waiting to being absolutely furious that the Conservatives are willing to install another leader with no mandate, depriving the public of a stable government.

This is the current state of UK politics. The government of the day will not call a general election. A generous analysis might say that this is because they think the country needs stability at a difficult time. A more cynical analysis, alternatively, could be that they are terrified of how bad their election loss could be.

Things will become clearer over the next 48 hours as candidates come forward and the process for a smooth transition it outlined. But if the past year of British politics is anything to go by, the coronation of a new prime minister will be accompanied by nasty briefings and dirty politics to which we’ve become well accustomed.

The simple truth is that the big beasts of British politics are likely to remain at each other’s throats for the foreseeable future. And given the state of the country, that’s terrible news for its citizens.

What rising Covid-19 infections in the UK and Europe could mean ...

CNN —

Two weeks after the United Kingdom dropped its last remaining Covid-19 mitigation measure – a requirement that people who test positive for the virus isolate for five days – the country is seeing cases and hospitalizations climb once again.

Covid-19 cases were up 48% in the UK last week compared with the week before. Hospitalizations were up 17% over the same period.

The country’s daily case rate – about 55,000 a day – is still less than a third of the Omicron peak, but cases are rising as fast as they were falling just two weeks earlier, when the country removed pandemic-related restrictions.

Daily cases are also rising in more than half of the countries in the European Union. They’ve jumped 48% in the Netherlands and 20% in Germany over the past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. But daily cases in Germany had yet to drop below pre-Omicron levels, and the Netherlands hadn’t seen cases fall as much as they did in the UK.

The situation in Europe has the attention of public health officials for two reasons: First, the UK offers a preview of what may play out in the United States, and second, something unusual seems to be happening. In previous waves, increases in Covid hospitalizations lagged behind jumps in cases by about 10 days to two weeks. Now, in the UK, cases and hospitalizations seem to be rising in tandem, something that has experts stumped.

“So we’re obviously keenly interested in what’s going on with that,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN.

Fauci said he’s spoken with his UK counterparts, and they have pegged the rise to a combination three factors. In order of contribution, Fauci said, these are:

The BA.2 variant, which is more transmissible than the original Omicron

The opening of society, with people mingling more indoors without masks

Waning immunity from vaccination or prior infection

In a technical briefing Friday, the UK Health Security Agency said BA.2 had an 80% higher relative growth rate than the original Omicron strain, though it does not seem more likely to lead to hospitalization.

Given that BA.2 doesn’t seem to be causing more severe disease – at least not in the highly vaccinated British population – it’s not clear why hospitalizations are ticking up.

“The issue with hospitalization is a little bit more puzzling, because although the hospitalizations are going up, it is very clear their use of ICU beds has not increased,” Fauci said. “So are the numbers of hospitalizations a real reflection of Covid cases, or is there a difficulty deciphering between people coming into the hospital with Covid or because of Covid?”

The US, like the UK, has lifted most mitigation measures as Covid-19 infections have fallen. Two weeks ago, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed how it measures Covid-19 impact in communities. The new metric – which relies on hospitalizations and hospital capacity in addition to cases – did away with masking recommendations for most parts of the country. States and schools have followed suit, lifting indoor masking requirements.

READ: Your top Covid questions, answered

“Without a doubt, opening up society and having people mingle indoors is clearly something that is a contributor, as well as overall waning immunity, which means we’ve really got to stay heads-up and keep our eye on the pattern here,” Fauci said. “So that’s the reason why we’re watching this very carefully.”

Michael Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN, “it’s like a weather alert. Right now, the skies are sunny and bright, and we hope they stay that way. But we could have some bad weather by evening, and we just don’t know.”

What will BA.2 do in the US?

BA.2 has been growing steadily in the US. Last week, the CDC estimated it was causing about 12% of new Covid-19 cases here.

Meanwhile, BA.2 now accounts for more than 50% of cases in the UK and several other European countries.

“The tipping point seems to be right around 50%,” said Keri Althoff, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “That’s when we really start to see that variant flex its power in the population” as far as showing its severity.

Althoff said although the UK may provide a glimpse of the future, there are key differences that will affect how BA.2 plays out in the United States.

In the UK, 86% of eligible people are fully vaccinated, and 67% are boosted, compared with 69% of those eligible vaccinated and 50% boosted in the US.

“What we see happening in the UK is going to be perhaps a better story than what we should be expecting here,” Althoff said.

In the Netherlands, it took about a month for BA.2 to overpower BA.1, she noted. If the same timeline occurs in the US, that will mean the variant is taking off just as the immunity generated by winter’s Omicron infections will be waning.

“I’m concerned about that,” Althoff said. “But we were in a similar situation last spring, where we really got hopeful that things were going to settle down, and we got a little bit of a summer, and then we got walloped by Delta.”

It will be important for people to understand they may be able to take their masks off for a few weeks, Althoff said, but they might also need to go back to wearing them regularly if cases spike.

“We could see another wave of illness at our hospitals,” she said.

Althoff will also be closely watching wastewater data over the next few weeks.

“Wastewater surveillance is an incredible advancement in how we can monitor SARS-CoV-2 and what it’s doing in the population without needing, really, any input from people,” she said. “Keeping our eye on wastewater surveillance is an important tool to understand where the virus is going and if it’s increasing in terms of infection.”

Preparing for the next wave

Protection against the next variant has to start with vaccination.

“We absolutely have to continue to find people who are unvaccinated and get them vaccinated,” Althoff said.

Fauci agreed that vaccination rates could be better in all age groups but said current numbers are especially bad for kids. Data collected by the CDC show about 28% of children ages 5 to 11 are fully vaccinated, while 58% of kids ages 12 to 17 have had two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine.

Even though the youngest children, those under 5, can’t yet be vaccinated, recent studies have shown young kids are less likely to catch Covid-19 when they’re surrounded by vaccinated older children and adults.

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“So the way you protect them is to surround the children, to the extent possible, with people who are vaccinated and boosted so that you have somewhat a veil of protection around them,” Fauci said.

It will also be important to continue to be flexible.

“The important thing in this massive experiment where we’re dropping all masking and restrictions is we have to stay diligent in terms of monitoring of it and testing and be prepared to possibly reverse a lot of the relaxing of these restrictions,” said Deborah Fuller, a microbiologist at the University of Washington.

“We can’t let our guard down, because the message that people get when they say ‘we’re lifting restrictions’ is the pandemic is over. And it’s not,” she said.

Brenda Goodman Deidre Mcphillips
Brenda Goodman
Deidre Mcphillips

FDA announces it will make it easier to import some baby formulas ...

CNN —

The US Food and Drug Administration said Monday that it is making it easier to import certain infant formulas as it works to address a nationwide shortage.

The US ordinarily produces 98% of the infant formula it uses, with imported formula primarily coming from Mexico, Ireland and the Netherlands, the agency said in a statement. But because of the shortage, the FDA is outlining a process by which it “would not object to the importation of certain infant formula products intended for a foreign market,” as well as the US distribution of products that were made domestically for export to other countries.

“Companies seeking to take advantage of these flexibilities should submit information for the FDA to quickly evaluate whether the product can be used safely and whether it provides adequate nutrition,” the agency said. “For example, labeling, information on nutritional adequacy and safety testing, and information about facility inspection history.”

The administration will prioritize applications “that stand a good chance of being successful, that indicate sort of clear quality and safety and nutritional adequacy and all of that, and that have potential to move significant product into the United States quickly,” a White House official told CNN, including imports from countries like Ireland, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the Netherlands, which feature safety inspection systems similar to those in the US.

The FDA said it is already in discussions with some manufacturers and suppliers regarding additional supply, but officials warn that even importing formula from abroad won’t offer immediate relief.

“With these flexibilities in place, we anticipate that those products that can quickly meet safety and nutrition standards could hit U.S. stores in a matter of weeks,” FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf said in a statement.

Susan Mayne, director of the FDA’s Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, said on a media call Monday that “it depends in part on what kind of information we get in from others, but I think we’re looking at weeks in terms of getting the imported product into the market.”

The news comes as the White House is working with key manufacturers to help provide logistics support during the baby formula shortage, an official said in a statement on Monday.

“The White House is having ongoing conversations with the four major infant formula manufacturers – Reckitt, Abbott, Nestle/Gerber, and Perrigo – to work with them to identify transportation, logistical, and supplier hurdles to increasing production of formula at their US- and FDA-approved facilities, to expand the amount and speed of FDA-approved formula being shipped into the country, and ensure that formula is quickly moving to retailers from factories,” the White House official said.

CNN reported earlier Monday that the Biden administration is confronting a barrage of questions and criticism for the national baby formula shortage that has anxious and angry parents hopping from store to store in search of baby food. The administration offered a new website, HHS.gov/formula, to provide resources to families in need, but when a CNN reporter tested out some of those options, the exercise resulted in apologetic customer service representatives, one hold time that lasted well over an hour and serious challenges in finding baby formula through some of the main suggestions listed on the new Health and Human Services website.

The White House is also in “ongoing communication” with Target, Amazon, Walmart and other major retailers, the official said, “to identify parts of the country that may be at risk of critically low supply of infant formula, and have offered to work with manufacturers and retailers to bring more formula to those parts of the country, including with US government transportation and logistics support.”

President Joe Biden held virtual meetings Thursday with the leadership of Target and Walmart, as well as formula manufacturers Reckitt and Gerber, respectively. Officials have since been in “close communication to follow up on those conversations,” per the official.

There are also efforts to shore up the supply chain, with outreach to formula manufacturers’ suppliers.

“We are also contacting suppliers to infant formula manufacturers to inform them that their materials are critical for boosting U.S. infant formula production and they should prioritize their production and delivery,” the official noted.

During an appearance on CNN’s “New Day” on Monday, Califf said the administration is “doing everything we can” to resolve the shortage.

Califf pointed to efforts to work with manufacturers to increase production, to work on the supply chain and to work closely with Abbott to get its shuttered plant open as soon as possible.

After Abbott restarts the site, it will take six to eight weeks for the products to reach store shelves, the company said Monday.

Pressed on how much of an effect the move to make it easier to import some formulas will have, Califf said the situation more broadly will “gradually improve” over a “few weeks.”

This Thursday, Califf testifies before the Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee on the FDA’s 2023 budget request and on the oversight of infant formula.

The baby formula shortage has been exacerbated by the shutdown of the country’s largest formula plant, the Abbott Nutrition facility in Sturgis, Michigan.

Production halted at the facility in February after reports that four infants who consumed formula manufactured at the plant had fallen ill with rare and serious infections caused by Cronobacter sakazakii bacteria. Two of the babies died. A whistleblower also detailed allegations to the FDA that Abbott was hiding safety issues months before the infant formula was recalled in February.

In the end, however, testing by the FDA and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the genetic sequences of the Cronobacter samples from the plant did not match any of the bacteria isolated from the sick children or the formula inside their homes. Genetic samples from the sick babies also did not match each other, suggesting there was no link between their cases, Abbott said in a news release.

Additionally, Abbott said no baby formula distributed to consumers tested positive for Cronobacter or Salmonella.

Pressed on how soon supply will be back to normal, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra declined to give specifics, saying on CNN Monday that “Abbott is the one that can tell you the timeline.”

Becerra said the federal government is working with the company to make sure it’s addressing the safety concerns raised to them and that “it should be done in a matter of weeks.”

“We don’t run their plants. Only they can address the safety concerns that were identified through our inspections. They have been working on this a while. We have been advising them of what they need to do,” Becerra told CNN’s Kate Bolduan on “At This Hour.”

“We’ll do everything we can, we’ll pull all the levers we can to help them move quickly as possible, but they control their plant. They own and operate it. They’re the ones that have to do the fix.”

Abbott said last week that it could restart production at its Michigan facility, pending FDA approval, within two weeks, but it could be a few more weeks until the formula is made available on shelves.

On CNN, Becerra also defended the administration’s response to the Abbott recall and complaint, saying, “We have been moving as quickly as we can.”

“FDA moves with deliberate speed to make sure that if you’re going to do something as drastic as urge a manufacturer to pull a product off the shelves, that there’s good evidence for it. That’s why it takes a little time,” he said.

This story has been updated with additional reporting.

Betsy Klein Katherine Dillinger Veronica Stracqualursi

Liz Truss to succeed Boris Johnson as British prime minister ...

London CNN —

Liz Truss will be the next prime minister of the United Kingdom after winning most votes in the Conservative Party leadership contest, succeeding Boris Johnson who resigned in July after a series of scandals.

Truss defeated rival Rishi Sunak with 81,326 votes to 60,399 among party members and will take over as leader on Tuesday, as Britons face mounting economic and social crisis.

She pledged action to tackle the crisis in a short victory speech at a conference center in London on Monday. Without offering details, Truss promised a “bold plan” to cut taxes and build economic growth, and “deliver on the energy crisis, dealing with people’s energy bills but also dealing with the long-term issues we have on energy supply.”

Monday’s announcement ends weeks of bitter campaigning during which Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister), accused the Foreign Secretary of risking a prolonged recession if she goes ahead with her promised tax cuts.

Once Johnson formally resigns his post to the Queen on Tuesday, Truss will also visit the monarch at her Scottish residence Balmoral, where, as leader of the largest party in parliament, she will be invited to form a government.

Truss had been the frontrunner for weeks, and the 47-year-old will now follow Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May to become Britain’s third female premier. Despite voting to remain in the European Union back in 2016, she has found herself to be the preferred candidate of the vast majority of Brexiteers in her party.

Her victory was smaller than expected, Conservatives who supported both candidates are privately admitting. It had been predicted by many that her margin of victory would be larger than the 18 percentage points announced on Monday afternoon.

In terms of her premiership, this could mean that she cannot run roughshod over her MPs, who voted in greater numbers for Sunak than Truss in the parliamentary part of this leadership contest.

And Truss could find that she has to accommodate a wider range of views from her party, which could mean embracing Sunak’s ideas for helping Britons with the cost-of-living crisis and a less aggressive approach to tax cuts – especially corporation tax.

Many Conservative MPs are privately worried that Truss’s modern-day Thatcherism could cost them the next election and will be leaping on the surprisingly low margin of victory to encourage the next PM to soften her economic stance.

The opposition Labour Party immediately dismissed her arguments, saying in a statement, “after years serving in Tory cabinets, nodding through the decisions that got us into this mess, Liz Truss simply doesn’t have the answers to this crisis.”

Long political journey

In the leadership campaign, Truss’s platform had featured plenty of red meat for the Conservative membership, from a hard line against the EU on Brexit to tax cuts as her main solution to the cost-of-living crisis. This tactic clearly proved decisive in winning over ordinary members, who had the final say in electing the leader of the ruling party, who consequently becomes prime minister.

But critics have accused her new-found hardline Brexit stance of being a cynical ploy. They have pointed to the fact that throughout her adult life Truss has evolved, from being an anti-monarchist Liberal Democrat in favor of legalizing drugs in her youth to the embodiment of the Conservative right today.

Throughout her political career, especially during the leadership contest, Truss has been compared to Thatcher, who, for many on the right, remains the benchmark for Conservative leaders. She was a tax-cutting, hard-nosed leader who took on the unions and played a large role in ending the Cold War. Like Thatcher, Truss has come from relatively humble beginnings to dominate a world inhabited largely by men.

Since becoming an MP, Truss has gone from being the darling of the liberal Conservative leader David Cameron, who took a personal interest in her career, to the Euroskeptic right’s figurehead.

Before the Brexit referendum, Truss said that she was “backing remain as I believe it is in Britain’s economic interest and means we can focus on vital economic and social reform at home.”

Cabinet colleagues at the time say that she never voiced any issue about supporting staying in the EU, despite having ample opportunities to express her own Euroskepticism.

These days, Truss is more than happy to pick fights with Brussels and to claim that it was the EU all along that held the British economy back.

A country in turmoil

Truss will take over a Conservative government that is facing multiple crises in the country. With steep rises in energy and food prices, long waiting lists for hospital treatment, and public sector workers, dock workers and even lawyers going on strike, making the case that the party deserves to win a historic fifth term at the next general election – due to be called by December 2024 at the latest – will be an uphill battle.

Inflation rose above 10% in July for the first time in 40 years, driven largely by the rising cost of energy, food and fuel. According to a forecast by the Bank of England, inflation will soar to 13% by the end of the year. The central bank also predicted that the UK would enter into recession before the end of the year. And on Monday, in a signal of these serious challenges ahead, the British pound dropped 0.3% to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1985.

Analysts are skeptical that Truss’s tax-cutting policies will do much help citizens, especially after a decade of austerity policies. The Institute for Fiscal studies, an independent research group focusing on public finances, said last month that the leadership contestants, who were both promising tax cuts and smaller government spending, “need to recognise this even greater-than-usual uncertainty in the public finances.”

The specter of Johnson

Looming over Truss’s new government will be the long shadow of Johnson, whose time in office saw approval ratings and voter intentions plummet for the Conservative Party. He leaves office a deeply unpopular prime minister less than three years after romping home to an enormous landslide election victory in 2019.

Johnson was forced to resign from office on July 7 after a string of scandals made his position untenable. His downfall followed months of revelations over parties held in 10 Downing Street while the country was under Covid lockdown restrictions. Johnson himself was fined by the police, making him the first prime minister in history found to have broken the law in office.

However, Johnson rode out the “Partygate” scandal. It was only when Chris Pincher, his deputy chief whip responsible for party discipline, was accused of sexually assaulting two men at a party, and Johnson delayed in acting over the matter, that his own party finally turned on him.

It is not yet known whether Johnson will remain in politics. He may still be forced to resign as a Member of Parliament after a House of Commons committee gives its verdict on whether or not Johnson knowingly misled Parliament when he claimed no rules were broken in Downing Street.

Regardless, Johnson is likely to remain a high-profile figure. There is a good chance he will return to his former media career as a columnist and broadcaster, though the damage to his reputation in office might mean his appeal is limited compared to where it stood before he entered Downing Street.

Throughout the campaign, Truss has been seen by most as the Johnson continuity candidate and enjoyed the backing of many of his loyalists.

While this support has helped Truss during the leadership contest with Conservative members who saw her rival Sunak as a traitor, and who value tribal loyalty, it means she will be forever tied to the Johnson legacy.

That could ultimately become a weight around her neck, as the specter of Johnson risks overshadowing anything Truss might do to tackle the misery that many Britons are set to face this winter.

Luke Mcgee Peter Wilkinson
Luke Mcgee
Peter Wilkinson

Gotabaya Rajapaksa: Sri Lanka's former president tipped to return to ...

Colombo, Sri Lanka CNN —

Sri Lanka’s former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the crisis-hit island nation last month amid mass protests, is expected to return to the country next week, according to a senior minister.

Foreign Minister Ali Sabry told CNN late Wednesday the Sri Lankan government had been told of Rajapaksa’s return “through diplomatic channels.”

“Officially we have no role in the return. He is a citizen of Sri Lanka and can travel as he wishes,” Sabry said.

Rajapaksa’s estranged cousin Udayanga Weeratunga, a former Sri Lankan Ambassador to Russia, told reporters Wednesday the former leader would return on August 24.

Rajapaksa is in Thailand after fleeing Sri Lanka in July on a military plane for Maldives, and then traveling to Singapore, days after angry protesters stormed his official residence and office.

He tendered his resignation from Singapore, while public anger grew over his alleged mismanagement of the economy.

The former leader’s hurried exit was a historic moment for the nation of 22 million, which members of the Rajapaksa family ruled with an iron fist for much of the past two decades.

Anger has been growing in Sri Lanka for months after the country’s foreign exchange reserves plummeted to record lows, with dollars running out to pay for essential imports including food, medicine and fuel.

Rajapaksa’s brother Mahinda Rajapaksa was forced to resign as prime minister in May as public fury grew over the crisis.

His departure came during a day of chaos and violence that culminated in police imposing a curfew across the country.

Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe reportedly said in late July it was “not the right time” for Gotabaya Rajapaksa to return to the country as it could inflame political tensions.

Iqbal Athas Rhea Mogul
Iqbal Athas
Rhea Mogul

Analysis: Finland is on the verge of asking to join NATO. Here's why ...

CNN —

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has backfired on a number of fronts. But one of the most disastrous consequences of all for the Russian President is the increasingly likely prospect of Finland joining NATO.

The Nordic nation is expected to announce its interest in NATO membership as soon as this week after its Foreign Affairs Committee drafts a response to the government’s security report – which includes the option of joining the alliance. After that, the Finnish parliament will hold an extraordinary debate on whether to approve the security report recommendations.

At this point it is very likely NATO would invite the country to talk about accession to the alliance.

It is broadly believed this would happen very quickly, as Finland already meets most of the criteria and it’s highly unlikely any NATO members would object.

Multiple recent opinion polls have shown that at least 60% of Finns are now in favor of NATO membership, a huge jump from a previous high of around 30% in past years.

If this plays out as expected, this country of under 6 million people will have redrawn the European security map in a way that was previously inconceivable and may have tremendous consequences for Russia.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg talks speaks during a joint press with Sweden and Finland's Foreign ministers after their meeting at the Nato headquarters in Brussels on January 24, 2022. John Thys/AFP/Getty Images

Before Putin invaded Ukraine, he made clear his belief that NATO had edged too close to Russia and should be stripped back to its borders of the 1990s, before some countries that either neighbor Russia or were ex-Soviet states joined the military alliance.

Russia currently shares about 755 miles of land border with five NATO members, according to the alliance. Finland’s accession would mean that a nation with which Russia shares an 800-mile border would become formally militarily aligned with the United States.

Not only would this be bad news for the Kremlin, but the addition of Finland would be quite a boon for NATO. Despite its relatively small population, Finland is a serious military power that has been unofficially aligned with the West for decades. Its military has for decades used equipment purchased from the United States that is compatible with NATO allies, meaning it could easily join NATO missions should it choose to do so.

‘Survival’ ideology

Many believe the only reason Finland hadn’t joined the alliance prior to the Ukraine crisis was simple pragmatism.

“Finnish security has always been based on two concepts: first geography and history; second idealism and realism,” Alexander Stubb, a former Prime Minister of Finland, told CNN.

“In an ideal world we want to cooperate with Russia, which we cannot escape being our geographical neighbor. But we also know from history that the greatest realistic threat to our national security is Russia. Over time, the reality that Russia is willing to create greater chaos in our region has become even clearer, so joining NATO becomes the pragmatic option,” he said.

Historically, Finland has navigated these competing realities by simultaneously indulging Russia’s security concerns, however irrational they may be, while also maintaining high defense spending and a standing military that is compatible with Western allies.

“It’s always been bonkers, the idea that a Western country would invade Russia, but we have tried to minimize those concerns by boosting trade and cooperating in other areas,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading researcher in global security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

He adds, however, that on top of policies like conscription – all Finnish men are liable to be called up for military service – and high defense spending, Finnish politicians have consistently sold to the public the idea that Finland’s idealistic way of life must be maintained at all costs.

Swedish Army armoured vehicles and tanks participate in a military exercise called "Cold Response 2022", gathering around 30,000 troops from NATO member countries as well as Finland and Sweden, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Setermoen in the Arctic Circle, Norway, March 25, 2022. Yves Herman/Reuters

“Finland’s default ideology has been one of survival. In the past 100 years we have become a strong, sovereign country with high standards of living. We have had to sacrifice land in order to maintain peace,” Salonius-Pasternak said. “It is therefore vitally important that our way of life survives, whether that is by pragmatic diplomacy or taking a harder stance against our greatest threat.”

There is no doubt that Finland joining NATO would be a major blow to Putin. Not only would it mean those extra 800 miles of shared border with the alliance, but symbolically it would go further in uniting the anti-Putin coalition that has emerged since the invasion of Ukraine. Countries that were once neutral are now providing funding and arms to Ukraine and Putin is an international pariah with fewer allies by the day.

It would also expand NATO’s influence in northern Europe all the way up to the Arctic, an area that is becoming increasingly important geopolitically due to its natural resources, strategic location and numerous territorial claims – including by Russia, Finland and the US.

Sweden, which neighbors Finland to the west, is also considering joining the alliance – and Finland’s accession would make it all the more likely, as the two countries have been on a similar journey since the start of the Ukraine crisis.

Russian response

Of course, there are concerns over how Russia might react to Finland expressing its desire to join NATO.

Martti Kari, who previously served as Finland’s assistant chief of defense intelligence, told CNN that Russia is already starting a misinformation campaign against it. “The main theme is that Finland is a Nazi country, because we fought against [the] Soviet Union in the Second World War alongside of Nazi Germany,” he said.

He predicts that Russia could violate Finland’s airspace and disrupt its activities at sea, including shipping, as well as upping its intelligence operations against the country.

Håkon Lunde Saxi, an associate professor at the Norwegian Defence University College, thinks that any move toward Finnish NATO membership would “probably result in a Russian military build-up along NATO’s new border with Russia, which would in itself not be beneficial for Finnish or European security.”

Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin addresses a press conference in Berlin on March 16, 2022. John Macdougall/Pool/Getty Images

However, he believes that the benefits would by far outweigh the “possible negative consequences of a somewhat larger Russian military footprint along Finland’s border.”

And despite concerns over what would happen in the interim period, where Finland would not be protected by NATO membership but would be in negotiations, multiple officials have told CNN that they expect members of the alliance, notably the UK and US, to guarantee Finnish security through this process.

Of course, nothing is certain until Finland makes the first move of declaring its intention. But with public approval, political support and Russia providing every reason for another of its neighbors to join its hated rival, there’s little doubt that Putin’s gambit to decrease NATO’S influence in Europe has backfired, spectacularly.

India's top court orders release of six people convicted of killing ...

CNN —

India’s top court on Friday ordered the release of six people convicted of killing the country’s former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, 31 years after their imprisonment.

The Supreme Court released Nalini Sriharan, the only woman convicted in the case, and five men, according to Anand Landge, the lawyer for the petitioners.

They were arrested a few weeks after Gandhi was assassinated in a suicide bomb attack on May 21, 1991, in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.

The attack was blamed on separatist rebels fighting for a Tamil state in Sri Lanka. Gandhi’s killing was seen as retaliation for his decision to send Indian troops into Sri Lanka in 1987 to enforce a peace accord to end the island nation’s civil war.

Over the years, various Tamil Nadu governments have requested the release of those found guilty over the killing.

In May, the Supreme Court ordered the release of A. G. Perarivalan, another man convicted in the case.

Perarivalan, who was 19 years old at the time of the attack, was accused of buying batteries for the bomb. He was convicted of criminal conspiracy to commit murder, among other charges.

Known as the “unwilling” prime minister who never wanted the job, Gandhi became India’s youngest leader at the age of 40 after his mother and former prime minister, Indira Gandhi, was shot dead by her bodyguards.

But he served less than a decade, losing the 1989 general election following a corruption scandal, and was assassinated two years later.

During his tenure, he signed peace accords with insurgent groups in states where religious tensions were high, and is credited for developing India’s science and technology sectors, giving him the moniker “Father of Information and Technology.”

Rhea Mogul Swati Gupta
Rhea Mogul
Swati Gupta

China's zero-Covid: Country braces for impact as virus 'spreads ...

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.

Beijing CNN —

China is bracing for an unprecedented wave of Covid-19 cases as it dismantles large parts of its repressive zero-Covid policy, with a leading expert warning Omicron variants were “spreading rapidly” and signs of an outbreak rattling the country’s capital.

Changes continued Monday as authorities announced a deactivation of the “mobile itinerary card” health tracking function planned for the following day.

The system, which is separate from the health code scanning system still required in a reduced number of places in China, had used people’s cell phone data to track their travel history in the past 14 days in an attempt to identify those who have been to a city with zones designated “high-risk” by authorities.

It had been a point of contention for many Chinese people, including due to concerns around data collection and its use by local governments to ban entry to those who have visited a city with a “high-risk zone,” even if they did not go to those areas within that city.

But as the scrapping of parts of the zero-Covid infrastructure come apace, there are questions about how the country’s health system will handle a mass outbreak.

Throughout the weekend, some businesses were closed in Beijing, and city streets were largely deserted, as residents either fell ill or feared catching the virus. The biggest public crowds seen were outside of pharmacies and Covid-19 testing booths.

Media outlet China Youth Daily documented hours-long lines at a clinic in central Beijing on Friday, and cited unnamed experts calling for residents not to visit hospitals unless necessary.

Health workers in the capital were also grappling with a surge in emergency calls, including from many Covid-positive residents with mild or no symptoms. A hospital official on Saturday appealed to residents in such cases not to call the city’s 911-like emergency services hotline to keep it free for the seriously ill.

The daily volume of emergency calls had surged from its usual 5,000 to more than 30,000 in recent days, Chen Zhi, chief physician of the Beijing Emergency Center said, according to official media.

Covid was “spreading rapidly” driven by highly transmissible Omicron variants in China, a top Covid-19 expert, Zhong Nanshan, said in an interview published by state media Saturday.

“No matter how strong the prevention and control is, it will be difficult to completely cut off the transmission chain,” Zhong, who has been a key public voice since the earliest days of the pandemic in 2020, was quoted saying by Xinhua.

Changes, and concerns

The rapid rollback of testing nationwide and the shift by many people to use antigen tests at home has also made it difficult to gauge the extent of the spread, with official data now appearing meaningless.

Authorities recorded 8,626 Covid-19 cases across China on Sunday, down from the previous day’s count of 10,597 and from the high of more than 40,000 daily cases late last month. CNN reporting from Beijing indicates the case count in the Chinese capital could be much higher than recorded.

One note seen on a residential building in Beijing is indicative of the larger situation, reading: “Due to the severe epidemic situation in recent days, the number of employees who can come to work is seriously insufficient, and the normal operation of the apartment has been greatly affected and challenged.”

Posters used for health code scanning and barriers used for health screening are seen dismantled at Nanjing South railway station on Friday in Nanjing, China. Yifan Ding/Getty Images

The country is only days out from a major relaxation of its longstanding zero-Covid measures, which came as a head-spinning change for many Chinese living under the government’s stringent controls and fed a longstanding narrative about the deadliness of Covid-19.

Last Wednesday, top health officials made a sweeping rollback of the mass testing, centralized quarantine, and health code tracking rules that it had relied on to control viral spread. Some aspects of those measures, such as health code use in designated places and central quarantine of severe cases, as well as home isolation of cases, remain.

Outside experts have warned that China may be underprepared to handle the expected surge of cases, after the surprise move to lift its measures in the wake of nationwide protests against the policy, growing case numbers and rising economic costs.

While Omicron may cause relatively milder disease compared to earlier variants, even a small number of serious cases could have a significant impact on the health system in a country of 1.4 billion.

Zhong, in the state media interview, said the government’s top priority now should be booster shots, particularly for the elderly and others most at risk, especially with Lunar New Year coming up next month – a peak travel time where urban residents visit elderly relatives and return to rural hometowns.

Health authorities on Sunday ordered improvements in medical capabilities in rural areas by the end of the month.

Measures to be undertaken include increasing ICU wards and beds, enhancing medical staff for intensive care and setting up more clinics for fevers, China’s National Health Commission said in a statement.

‘Over-hyping’

Meanwhile, experts have warned a lack of experience with the virus – and years of state media coverage focusing on its dangers and impact overseas, before a recent shift in tone – could push those who are not in critical need to seek medical care, further overwhelming systems.

Bob Li, a graduate student in Beijing, who tested positive on Friday said he wasn’t afraid of the virus, but his mother, who lives in the countryside, stayed up all night worrying about him. “She finds the virus a very, very scary thing,” Li said.

“I think most people in rural China may have some misunderstandings about the virus, which may come from the overhyping of this virus by the state in the past two years. This is one of the reasons why people are so afraid,” he said, adding that he still supports the government’s careful treatment of Covid-19 during the pandemic.

There are clear efforts to tamp down on public concern about Covid-19 – and its knock-on effects, like panic buying of medications.

China’s market watchdog said on Friday that there was a “temporary shortage” of some “hot-selling” drugs and vowed to crack down on price gouging, while major online retailer JD.com last week said it was taking steps to ensure stable supplies after sales for certain medications surged 18 times that week over the same period in October.

A hashtag trending on China’s heavily moderated social media platform Weibo over the weekend featured a state media interview with a Beijing doctor saying people who tested positive for Covid-19 but had no or mild symptoms did not need to take medication to recover.

“People with asymptomatic infections do not need medication at all. It is enough to rest at home, maintain a good mood and physical condition,” Li Tongzeng, chief infectious disease physician at Beijing You An Hospital, said in an interview linked to a hashtag viewed more than 370 million times since Friday.

Simone Mccarthy Selina Wang Wayne Chang
Simone Mccarthy
Selina Wang
Wayne Chang

UK election: Why crisis-wracked nation won't be voting soon | CNN

London CNN —

The United Kingdom is – once again – in the market for a new leader following the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss only six weeks into her disastrous premiership.

Truss’ successor will be the fifth PM to lead the country since it voted for Brexit in 2016 – a decision that set into motion the turmoil that ultimately led to the current political chaos.

And while a general election might seem to be the obvious way forward, Brits (and their dogs) are unlikely to be lining up in front of the ballot box any time soon. Here’s why.

Why won’t there be a new election?

In the UK, general elections must be held at least every five years.

Luckily for the Conservative Party, which is currently in power but trailing the opposition in opinion polls, the next vote doesn’t need to be held until January 2025.

That’s because in the UK, prime ministers are not elected directly by the people. In fact, four of the last five British prime ministers came into the role without a general election.

Truss is in Downing Street because she is the leader of the largest party in the House of Commons. She was picked by the roughly 172,000 members of the Conservative Party after the departure of Boris Johnson, who himself became prime minister without a general election after winning the party leadership contest in 2019 – although he did call a new vote in December that year and won.

Theresa May, who served as prime minister before Johnson, also first became PM without an election, as did Labour’s Gordon Brown when he replaced Tony Blair in 2007.

So how will the new PM be picked?

The Conservative Party is still the largest one in Parliament, so its new leader will automatically become prime minister.

While the last leadership election took almost two months – longer than Truss will spend as prime minister – the next one will be swift.

Graham Brady, leader of the 1922 Committee, which represents rank-and-file Conservative members of parliament, said Thursday the new PM will be chosen by next Friday.

To narrow the field of those in the running, the candidates to replace Truss will need at least 100 nominations from Conservative MPs, which means there will be a maximum of three people in the running.

Must the new prime minister call a general election?

No. The next general election is due to take place no later than January 2025.

However, the prospect of Britain seeing its third prime minister since the last poll in 2019 and the second to come into power without a public vote will put pressure on Truss’ successor to ask the public for a new mandate.

The last time three successive prime ministers entered Downing Street without standing in a general election was before and during the World War II.

The opposition, sensing an opportunity, is pushing for a new vote. Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, which is enjoying a huge lead in opinion polls, repeated his calls on Thursday for an early general election. “After 12 years of Tory failure, the British people deserve so much better than this revolving door of chaos,” he said in a statement posted on Twitter. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon also called for an early vote, saying a new “general election is now a democratic imperative.”

What do British people think about all this?

Judging by the numerous protests, jokes and memes, many are far from impressed. A public petition calling for a new election was launched in September. It gathered more than 715,000 signatures and was debated in parliament earlier this week.

However, there is little the public can do if the Conservative Party, which is firmly in control of parliament, decides not to call an election now. For many Conservative lawmakers, voting for an early election would mean the end of their political careers. The odds of that happening are likely to be low.

Trump's slow 2024 start worries allies | CNN Politics

CNN —

Back in 2015, Donald Trump’s first campaign rally in Iowa as a contender for the Republican presidential nomination came just 10 hours after he declared his candidacy in New York. The following day, he was across the country in New Hampshire, with plans to visit South Carolina before the end of his first week.

But seven years later – and nearly three weeks into his 2024 presidential campaign – Trump has yet to leave his home state or hold a public campaign event in an early voting state.

Trump’s disengaged posture has baffled former and current allies, many of whom experienced firsthand the frenetic pace of his two previous White House bids, and who now say he’s missed the window to make a splash with his 2024 rollout. The uninspiring launch of his supposed political comeback comes as his campaign appears to be operating on auto pilot, with few signs of momentum or enthusiastic support from donors or party heavyweights.

“I don’t know why he rushed this. It doesn’t make sense,” one Trump adviser said of his lackluster announcement speech last month, which came one week after Republicans delivered an underwhelming performance in the midterm elections and as the rest of the party turned its attention to the Senate runoff contest in Georgia.

Trump’s announcement was roundly panned for lacking zest, so much so that some audience members attempted an early exit, and his recent hosting of Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes and embattled rapper Kanye “Ye” West at Mar-a-Lago only further galvanized GOP opposition against him. A person familiar with the matter said Trump spent the Sunday after Thanksgiving asking people around him if they thought the backlash to his private dinner with Ye and Fuentes was truly damaging.

“So far, he has gone down from his bedroom, made an announcement, gone back up to his bedroom and hasn’t been seen since except to have dinner with a White supremacist,” said a 2020 Trump campaign adviser.

“It’s 1000% a ho-hum campaign,” the adviser added.

The only other notable event to occur since Trump announced he was running again was both unintended and dreaded for weeks by the former president’s attorneys. Just three days after Trump launched his campaign, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to oversee two ongoing criminal investigations into the 45th president and his associates.

While some Republicans long speculated that Trump entered the presidential race early to inoculate himself from further legal peril, his candidate status instead appeared to serve as the catalyst for Garland’s announcement.

A Trump campaign spokesman said the former president has held “multiple events since he announced,” noting his remote appearance at the annual Republican Jewish Coalition summit last month, video remarks to a conference for conservative activists in Mexico, a Patriots Freedom Fund event, his remarks at two separate political events held at Mar-a-Lago, and a tele-rally Monday night for Georgia Republican Senate hopeful Herschel Walker. None of these events were billed as campaign events.

Trump’s current campaign trajectory has left both allies and Republican opponents wondering if he will flip a switch in 2023 or fail to adapt to a different political environment. Even as the GOP’s undisputed 2024 frontrunner, some of his closest allies say he simply cannot afford to take his position for granted at a moment when influential Republicans appear exceedingly interested in dislodging him from his influential perch.

“If Trump was working in a lush jungle environment in 2016, he is in a desert today,” said a Republican close to the former president. “The political landscape has totally changed. He was irresistible because no one understood him but now everybody knows how to deal with him, so the question is, can he recalibrate?”

Some sources said Trump’s first-out-of-the-gate strategy, which was said to be partly aimed at clearing the GOP primary field, already looks poised to fail.

“You know what it’s done to dissuade people from getting in? Nothing. He hasn’t hired anyone. He hasn’t been to the early states,” said the 2020 campaign adviser.

Trump’s lack of impact was on display a week after his announcement, as other 2024 Republican hopefuls took the stage in Las Vegas for the annual RJC summit. Some attacked the former President, while others, once allies of Trump, indicated they were ready to take him on in 2024.

Just days before the event, Trump’s team announced plans for him to address the group remotely. Two people familiar with the matter said his virtual address was organized by aides at the last minute after he grew agitated upon realizing the event was a cattle call for Republican presidential prospects and he was not on its original list of speakers. The Trump campaign spokesman disputed this account, saying Trump’s remote remarks were planned “many weeks prior to the event.”

Other sources who for months harbored concerns that Trump wasn’t as enthusiastic about running as he was letting on in public appearances now say his inactivity has increased their worry. Apart from a planned fundraising appearance for a classical education group in Naples last weekend, the former president has yet to announce any events before the end of the year. A person familiar with the matter said Trump’s team is toying with a pre-Christmas event of some kind, though his campaign has not yet finalized any travel. In a statement last week panning a move by Democratic officials to put South Carolina first on the party’s primary calendar, Trump appeared to tease a visit to Iowa, currently the first state to cast votes in both parties’ presidential nominating contests, “in the very near future.”

“I can’t wait to be back in Iowa,” he said.

Campaign is ‘taking a breather’

Inside Trump’s campaign, sources said his current approach is entirely intentional, dismissing concerns that he has forfeited the spotlight at a critical time but acknowledging that Trump is currently working with a bare-bones staff.

The campaign “is doing exactly what everyone always accuses [them] of not doing – taking a breather, planning and forming a strategy for the next two years,” said one source familiar with Trump’s operation said.

Senior staff are holed up working on a plan,” this person added, noting that Trump’s campaign travel is expected to begin early in the new year, right as possible rivals who have taken the holidays to mull their own political futures may start launching their own campaigns or exploratory committees.

And while some Trump allies have been surprised by his lack of a hiring spree right out of the gate, his campaign has been content to maintain a lean operation while he’s the only candidate in the field. The former president is not expected to tap a formal campaign manager, instead elevating three trusted advisers – Susie Wiles, Brian Jack and Chris LaCivita – to senior roles, but allies said he will likely need to build out his on-the-ground staff in early voting states in the months to come, as well as a robust communications operation if he finds himself in a competitive primary.

While those hires don’t need to happen immediately, people close to Trump said his early entry into the 2024 race does raise questions about how he will sustain campaign-related costs over a longer period than other candidates who declare later, including chief potential rival Ron DeSantis. CNN has previously reported that the Florida governor, should he decide to take on Trump, would announce next May or June, after the conclusion of his state’s legislative session and just months before the Republican party could host its first primary debate, according to a party official involved in debate planning.

“The question a lot of us have is can Trump sustain a campaign for two years. That’s the real difficulty here. The pacing we’re seeing right now is designed to do that,” said a person close to Trump.

In addition to planning rallies and events and building momentum around the former President, the campaign staff is also looking at how to best insulate Trump after many were caught off guard learning of Trump’s dinner with Fuentes and West. The event, and the days of fallout and negative coverage, has expedited some of the campaign’s long-term plans, including ensuring a senior campaign staffer is always with the former president, a source familiar with the campaign said.

Trump’s White House staff worked with resort staff during his presidency in a similar fashion to protect Trump from potentially “unsavory” guests of members, the source said. Those close to Trump blamed “low level staffers” for allowing Fuentes to slip into the resort without any flags being raised.