Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024 | CNN Politics

CNN —

Former President Donald Trump, aiming to become only the second commander-in-chief ever elected to two nonconsecutive terms, announced Tuesday night that he will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

“In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” Trump told a crowd gathered at Mar-a-Lago, his waterfront estate in Florida, where his campaign will be headquartered.

Surrounded by allies, advisers, and conservative influencers, Trump delivered a relatively subdued speech, rife with spurious and exaggerated claims about his four years in office. Despite a historically divisive presidency and his own role in inciting an attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, Trump aimed to evoke nostalgia for his time in office, frequently contrasting his first-term accomplishments with the Biden administration’s policies and the current economic climate. Many of those perceived accomplishments – from strict immigration actions to corporate tax cuts and religious freedom initiatives – remain deeply polarizing to this day.

As Trump spoke to a roomful of Republicans who expect him to face primary challengers in the coming months, he also claimed the party cannot afford to nominate “a politician or conventional candidate” if it wants to win back the White House.

“This will not be my campaign, this will be our campaign all together,” Trump said.

Trump’s long-awaited campaign comes as he tries to reclaim the spotlight following the GOP’s underwhelming midterm elections performance – including the losses of several Trump-endorsed election deniers – and the subsequent blame game that has unfolded since Election Day. Republicans failed to gain a Senate majority, came up short in their efforts to fill several statewide seats, and have yet to secure a House majority, with only 215 races called in their favor so far out of the 218 needed, developments that have forced Trump and other party leaders into a defensive posture as they face reproval from within their ranks.

Trump’s paperwork establishing his candidacy landed with the Federal Election Committee shortly before he delivered his announcement at Mar-a-Lago.

To the delight of aides and allies who have long advised him to mount a forward-looking campaign, he spent only a fraction of his remarks repeating his lies about the 2020 election. Though he advocated for the use of paper ballots and likened America’s election system to that of “third world countries,” Trump also tried at times to broaden his grievances – lamenting the “massive corruption” and “entrenched interests” that in his view have consumed Washington. Many of Trump’s top advisers have expressed concern that his fixation on promoting conspiracies about the last presidential election would make it harder for him to win a national election in 2024.

Throughout the hour-long speech, Trump made clear that he wants his campaign to be seen by Republicans as a sacrificial undertaking.

“Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand,” he said at one point, describing the legal and emotional toll his presidency and post-presidential period has taken on his family members.

On the heels of last week’s midterm elections, Trump has been blamed for elevating flawed candidates who spent too much time parroting his claims about election fraud, alienating key voters and ultimately leading to their defeats. He attempted to counter that criticism on Tuesday, noting that Republicans appear poised to retake the House majority and touting at least one Trump-endorsed candidate, Kevin Kiley of California. At one point, Trump appeared to blame his party’s midterm performance on voters not yet realizing “the total effect of the suffering” after two years of Democratic control in Washington.

“I have no doubt that by 2024, it will sadly be much worse and they will see clearly what has happened and is happening to our country – and the voting will be much different,” he claimed.

Beating others to the punch

Trump is betting that his first-out-of-the gate strategy will fend off potential primary rivals and give him an early advantage with deep-pocketed donors, aides say. He is widely expected to be challenged by both conservative and moderate Republicans, though the calculus of some presidential hopefuls could change now that he is running. Others – like his former Vice President, Mike Pence – may proceed anyway.

Trump’s third presidential bid also coincides with a period of heightened legal peril as Justice Department officials investigating him and his associates revisit the prospect of indictments in their Trump-related probes. The former president is currently being investigated for his activities before and during the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol and his retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate after he left office. While Trump is counting on an easy path to the GOP nomination with his sustained support among the party’s base, his announcement is likely to dash the hopes of party leaders who have longed for fresh talent. In particular, top Republicans have been paying close attention to the next moves of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won his reelection contest with a 19-point margin of victory and considerable support from minority and independent voters. Some Republican leaders may try to scuttle Trump’s campaign by elevating or encouraging alternative candidates, including DeSantis, who has been quietly laying the groundwork for a possible White House bid of his own.

Of course, any countereffort to inhibit Trump’s path to the nomination is likely to prove difficult. Despite his myriad legal entanglements and the stain of January 6, the twice-impeached 45th president remains immensely popular among most Republican voters and boasts a deep connection with his core backers that could prove difficult for other GOP hopefuls to replicate or weaken. Even leading conservatives who disliked Trump’s pugnacious politics and heterodox policies stuck with him as president because he helped solidify the rightward shift of the US Supreme Court with his nominations – one of the most far-reaching aspects of his legacy, which resulted in the conservative court majority’s deeply polarizing June decision to end federal abortion rights. In fact, while Trump ended his first term with the lowest approval rating of any president, Republicans viewed him favorably, according to a May NBC News poll. That alone could give Trump a significant edge over primary opponents whom voters are still familiarizing themselves with.

Among those potential competitors is Pence, who would likely benefit from high name recognition due to his role as vice president. Pence, who has been preparing for a possible White House run in 2024, is sure to face an uphill battle courting Trump’s most loyal supporters, many of whom soured on the former vice president after he declined to overstep his congressional authority and block certification of now-President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. Trump could also find himself pitted against DeSantis, who has risen to hero status among cultural conservatives and who is widely considered a more polished version of Trump. Even some of the former president’s advisers have voiced similar observations to CNN, noting that DeSantis also made inroads with major Republican donors during his quest for reelection and built a mountain of goodwill with GOP leaders by campaigning for federal and statewide Republican candidates in the middle of his own race.

Beyond his potential rivals, Trump has another roadblock in his path as the House select committee continues to investigate his role in January 6, 2021, and Justice Department officials weigh whether to issue criminal charges. The committee, which subpoenaed him for testimony and documents in October and which Trump is now battling in court, held public hearings throughout the summer and early fall featuring depositions from those in Trump’s inner circle at the White House – including members of his family – that detailed his public and private efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results through a sustained pressure campaign on numerous local, state and federal officials, and on his own vice president.

But Trump’s desire to announce his campaign early can be especially traced to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, which advisers say further emboldened his decision to mount what he believes will be a triumphant political comeback. The day after the search, the former president fielded calls from allies advising him to accelerate his 2024 timeline. That night, he huddled with House lawmakers in the Republican Study Committee and told them he’d “made up his mind” about launching a bid, though some of those same House Republicans later convinced him to wait until after the midterm elections to announce his next move.

Few of those lawmakers were present for Trump’s speech on Tuesday, choosing to remain in Washington as House Republicans conducted their leadership elections and the party continues to grapple with its failures in highly prized midterm races. Rather, the room was filled with prominent election deniers like MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, several of Trump’s attorneys, and past and present aides. Before he entered the room on Tuesday alongside former first lady Melania Trump, several members of the ex-president’s family were also seen filtering into the ballroom, including Eric and Lara Trump, his son Barron, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, who is engaged to Donald Trump Jr. His eldest son was notably missing, along with daughter Ivanka, , who has since said she will no longer be involved in the political arena. A source close to Donald Trump Jr. said he was stuck on a hunting trip in the mountain west and unable to catch a flight back to Florida in time for his father’s announcement. Other guests included longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone; outgoing North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn; former congressman and the current CEO of Trump’s Truth Social app Devin Nunes; and his chief political adviser Susie Wiles.

Preparing for 2024

From the moment Trump left Washington, defeated and disgraced, in January 2021, he began plotting a return to power – devoting the bulk of his time to building a political operation intended for this moment. With assistance from numerous former aides and advisers, he continued the aggressive fundraising tactics that had become a marker of his 2020 campaign, amassing a colossal war chest ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, and worked diligently to elect steadfast allies in both Congress and state legislatures across the country.

While maintaining a home base in Florida, he also regularly jet-setted across the country for campaign rallies that afforded him crucial face time with his base and with candidates he bet would become valuable allies in the US Senate and House.

Through it all, Trump continued to falsely insist that the 2020 election was stolen from him, indulging in far-flung conspiracy theories about voter fraud and pressuring Republican leaders across the party’s election apparatus to endorse changes that would curtail voting rights.

Trump’s aides were pleased earlier this fall when his public appearances and rally speeches gradually became more focused on rising crime, immigration and economic woes – key themes throughout the midterm cycle and issues they hope will enable him to draw a compelling contrast with Biden as he begins this next chapter. Allies of the former president have long said that he views the 2024 contest as an opportunity to regain what he believes is his: another four years in the Oval Office.

But there is no guarantee that Trump will glide easily to a nonconsecutive second term. In fact, it could be quite difficult.

Not only does history offer just one example of such a feat (defeated in 1888 after his first term, President Grover Cleveland was elected again in 1892), no previously impeached president has ever run again for office. Trump was first impeached in 2019 on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of justice, and then again in 2021 for inciting the riot at the US Capitol. Though he was acquitted by the Senate both times, 10 House Republicans broke with their party the second time around to join Democrats in a vote to impeach him. Seven Republican senators voted to convict him at his Senate trial.

Trump has also been the subject of a bevy of lawsuits and investigations, including a New York state investigation and a separate Manhattan district attorney criminal probe into his company’s finances, a Georgia county probe into his efforts to overturn Biden’s election win in the state, and separate Justice Department probes into his campaign’s scheme to put forth fake electors in battleground states and his decision to bring classified materials with him to Mar-a-Lago upon leaving office.

Trump’s actions since he left Washington have, for the most part, signaled his interest in an eventual return. While most former presidents go quietly into retirement – resurfacing to assist their parties during midterm cycles or for the opening of their presidential libraries – Trump bucked tradition to instead plot the comeback he now hopes to make. Despite its distance from Washington, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club has transformed into a new hub for Republicans and a home base for his political machine. Assisted by a small group of paid staffers, he has hosted numerous candidate and committee fundraisers and seen a rotating cast of party leaders and congressional hopefuls filter through its gilded hallways in the hopes of nabbing his endorsement or reingratiating themselves with his base. Trump’s schedule has enabled him to build close relationships with party leaders and fringe figures – from House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy of California to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia – whose support in a contested primary could ultimately help him clear the field. Many of the aides who have been with him since he left the White House are expected to continue on as campaign hands, as the former president and his de facto chief of staff, longtime Florida GOP strategist Wiles, aim to maintain a lean operation much like the early days of his 2016 presidential campaign. Among those who are likely to be involved are Wiles, Taylor Budowich, Chris LaCivita, Steven Cheung, Justin Caporale and Brian Jack. Brad Parscale, who managed part of Trump’s failed 2020 campaign will not be part of his 2024 operation, nor will Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who was deeply involved in his quest for reelection.

Time in office

As president, Trump faced criticism over several of his actions, especially his management of the worst public health crisis in nearly a century – the Covid-19 pandemic – though his administration helped facilitate the development of vaccines to treat the novel coronavirus in record time. He also was blasted by critics over his handling of Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in 2017; the White nationalist rally, also in 2017, in Charlottesville, Virginia, where Heather Heyer was killed while walking with a group of counterprotesters; and Black Lives Matter protests.

While in office, Trump signed sweeping tax cuts into law, enacted controversial hard-line immigration policies, including a policy that separated migrant children from their families and one known as “Remain in Mexico,” which the US Supreme Court ruled in June could be ended by his successor, and appointed hundreds of federal judges with deep conservative credentials. He also successfully nominated three Supreme Court justices, whose decisions this year as part of the court’s majority have shifted American society and laws rightward on issues such as abortion, guns, religious freedom and climate change.

The former real estate businessman and reality TV star was first elected to office in 2016, beating out a wide field of more than a dozen GOP candidates in an ugly primary, and then prevailing over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a contentious general election, despite sexual misconduct allegations that would have typically been campaign-ending.

As president, Trump was an impulsive leader, who dispensed with long-standing norms, often announcing policy and Cabinet personnel changes on Twitter. (He was ultimately banned from the platform following the US Capitol riot and was later barred from Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube as well.)

He pushed an “America First” foreign policy approach, pulling the US out of international agreements such as the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal, a pair of controversial moves that were decried by many of America’s top European allies.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story mistakenly said who was likely to be involved in the Trump campaign. Brad Parscale will not be involved in the 2024 operation. It has also been updated to correctly characterize former President Donald Trump’s position on paper ballots, fix the spelling of Justin Caporale and reflect additional developments.

Gaborr Kristen Holmes Veronica Stracqualursi

Fact check: 20 false and misleading claims Trump made in his ...

Washington CNN —

Former President Donald Trump began his 2024 presidential campaign just as he ended his presidency in 2021: with a whole lot of inaccuracy.

Like many of Trump’s speeches as president, his announcement speech at his Mar-a-Lago resort on Tuesday was filled with false claims about a variety of topics – from his record in office to his Democratic opponents to the economy, the environment and foreign policy.

Here is a fact check of 20 false or misleading things he said. This is not a comprehensive list.

Afghanistan withdrawal

Trump claimed Tuesday evening that the US left $85 billion worth of military equipment in Afghanistan upon its military withdrawal in 2021.

“Perhaps the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country, where we lost lives, left Americans behind and surrendered $85 billion worth of the finest military equipment anywhere in the world,” Trump said.

Facts First: Trump’s figure is false. While a significant quantity of military equipment that had been provided by the US to Afghan government forces was indeed abandoned to the Taliban upon the US withdrawal, the Defense Department has estimated that this equipment had been worth about $7.1 billion — a chunk of about $18.6 billion worth of equipment provided to Afghan forces between 2005 and 2021. And some of the equipment left behind was rendered inoperable before US forces withdrew.

There is not any basis for Trump’s claim that $85 billion worth of equipment was left behind. As other fact-checkers have previously explained, that was a rounded-up figure (it’s closer to $83 billion) for the total amount of money Congress has appropriated during the war to a fund supporting the Afghan security forces. Only part of this funding was for equipment.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Trump claimed his administration “filled up” the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but it has now been “virtually drained” by the Biden administration.

Facts First: Both parts of Trump’s claim are false. He didn’t fill up the reserve, and the reserve is not “virtually drained.”

Though Trump has repeatedly boasted of supposedly having filled up the reserve, it actually contained fewer barrels of crude when he left office in early 2021 than when he took office in 2017. That’s not all because of him – the law requires some mandatory sales from the reserve for budget reasons, and Democrats in Congress blocked the funding needed to execute Trump’s 2020 directive to buy tens of millions more barrels and fill the reserve to its maximum capacity – but nonetheless, it didn’t get filled.

As CNN’s Matt Egan and Phil Mattingly reported in mid-October, the US reserve remains the largest in the world even though it was at a 38-year low after President Joe Biden released a major chunk of it to help keep oil prices down in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (and, coincidentally or not, prior to the midterm elections). The reserve had more than 396 million barrels of crude oil as of the week ending November 4.

Tariffs on China

Trump also boasted about his tariffs on China, claiming that “no president had ever sought or received $1 for our country from China until I came along.”

Facts First: As we have written repeatedly, it’s not true that no president before Trump had generated any revenue through tariffs on goods from China. In reality, the US has had tariffs on China for more than two centuries, and FactCheck.org reported in 2019 that the US generated an “average of $12.3 billion in custom duties a year from 2007 to 2016, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission DataWeb.”

Also, American importers, not Chinese exporters, make the actual tariff payments – and study after study during Trump’s presidency found that Americans were bearing the cost of the tariffs.

Sea level rise

Trump claimed that unnamed people aren’t talking about the threat of nuclear weapons because they are obsessed with environmental issues, which he said, “they say may affect us in 300 years.” He added, “They say the ocean will rise 1/8 of an inch over the next 200 to 300 years. But don’t worry about nuclear weapons that can take out entire countries with one shot.”

Facts First: Trump’s claims are false – even if you ignore the absurd contention that people aren’t paying attention to nuclear threats because they’re focused on the environment. Sea levels are expected to rise much faster than Trump said. The US government’s National Ocean Service said on its website that “sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 - 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”

And though Trump didn’t use the words “climate change” in this claim, he strongly suggested that people say climate change may only affect us in 300 years. That is grossly inaccurate; it is affecting the US today. The Department of Defense said in a 2021 report: “Increasing temperatures; changing precipitation patterns; and more frequent, intense, and unpredictable extreme weather conditions caused by climate change are exacerbating existing risks and creating new security challenges for U.S. interests.”

Drug use and punishment in China

Trump claimed that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had told him that China has no “drug problem” at all because of its harsh treatment of drug traffickers. Trump then repeated the claim himself, saying, “if you get caught dealing drugs in China you have an immediate and quick trial, and by the end of the day, you are executed. That’s a terrible thing, but they have no drug problem.”

Facts First: Trump’s claim is not true, just as it was when he made similar claims as president. Joe Amon, director of global health at Drexel University’s Dornsife School of Public Health, said that “yes, China has a drug problem” and that “China, like the US, has a large number of people who use (a wide range of) drugs.” The Chinese government has itself reported that “there were 1.49 million registered drug users nationwide” as of the end of 2021; in the past, officials in China have acknowledged that the number of registered drug users are a significant undercount of actual drug use there.

And while Trump solely credits harsh punishments for what he claims is China’s success in handling drugs, the Chinese government also touts its rehabilitation, education and anti-poverty efforts.

Presidential records

Complaining about how he is under criminal investigation for taking presidential documents to his Florida home and resort, Trump repeated a debunked claim about former President Barack Obama’s handling of presidential documents.

“Obama took a lot of things with him,” Trump said.

Facts First: This is false – as the National Archives and Records Administration pointed out in August when Trump previously made this claim. Though Trump claimed that Obama had taken millions of records to Chicago, NARA explained in a public statement that it had itself taken these records to a NARA-managed facility in the Chicago area – which is near where Obama’s presidential library will be located. It said that, as per federal law, “former President Obama has no control over where and how NARA stores the Presidential records of his Administration.”

NARA has also debunked Trump’s recent claims about various other presidents having supposedly taken documents to their own home states; in those cases, too, it was NARA that moved the documents, not the former presidents. It is standard for NARA to set up temporary facilities near where former presidents’ permanent libraries will eventually be located.

Gas prices

As he has on other occasions during Biden’s tenure, Trump used misleading figures when discussing the price of gas. He said: “We were $1.87 a gallon for gasoline, and now it’s sitting five, six, seven and even eight dollars, and it’s gonna go really bad.”

Facts First: This is so misleading that we’re classifying it as inaccurate. While the price of a gallon of regular gas did briefly fall to $1.87 (and lower) during the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the national average for regular gas on Trump’s last day in office, January 20, 2021, was much higher than that – $2.393 per gallon, according to data provided to CNN by the American Automobile Association. And while there are some remote gas stations where prices are always much higher than the national average, the national average Tuesday is $3.759, per AAA data, not $5, $6, $7 or $8. California, the state with the highest prices as usual, has an average of $5.423.

Deportations under Obama

Trump claimed Tuesday evening that his administration, unlike Obama’s administration, had convinced countries like Guatemala and Honduras to take back their gang members that had come to America.

“The worst gangs are MS-13. And under the Barack Hussein Obama administration, they were unable to take them out. Because their countries where they came from wouldn’t take them,” Trump said from Mar-a-Lago.

Facts First: It’s not true that, as a rule, Guatemala and Honduras wouldn’t take back their citizens during Obama’s administration, though there were some individual exceptions.

In 2016, just prior to Trump’s presidency, neither Guatemala nor Honduras was on the list of countries that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) considered “recalcitrant,” or uncooperative, in accepting the return of their nationals.

For the 2016 fiscal year, Obama’s last full fiscal year in office, ICE reported Guatemala and Honduras ranked second and third, behind only Mexico, in terms of the country of citizenship of people being removed from the US. You can read a longer fact check, from 2019, here.

Missile landing in Poland

Trump claimed Tuesday that a missile that was “sent in probably by Russia” landed 50 miles into Poland. “People are going absolutely wild and crazy and they’re not happy,” Trump said from Mar-a-Lago.

Facts First: This claim is false. While Poland said a Russian-made missile did land in their territory Tuesday, killing two Polish citizens, the explosion happened about four miles west from the Ukrainian border.

Additionally, it remains unclear where the missile was fired from, and why it fell in Poland.

Finishing the border wall

Trump made a false claim about one of his signature policies, a wall at the border with Mexico.

“We built the wall, and now we will add to it. Now, we built the wall – we completed the wall – and then we said let’s do more, and we did a lot more. And we did a lot more. And as we were doing it, we had an election that came up. And when they came in, they had three more weeks to complete the additions to the wall, which would’ve been great, and they said no, no, we’re not going to do that,” he said.

Facts First: It’s not even close to true that Trump “completed” the border wall.

According to an official “Border Wall Status” report written by US Customs and Border Protection two days after Trump left office, about 458 miles of wall had been completed under Trump – but about 280 more miles that had been identified for wall construction had not completed. The report, provided to CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez, said that, of those 280, about 74 miles of barriers were “in the pre-construction phase and have not yet been awarded, in locations where no barriers currently exist,” and that 206 miles were “currently under contract, in place of dilapidated and outdated designs and in locations where no barriers previously existed.”

Democratic leaders and the National Guard

Trump claimed that Democratic governors and mayors refused to ask for “help” even during “a total breakdown of law and order,” and “don’t want to ever ask to do anything,” so “we sent in the National Guard in Minneapolis and in other places.”

Facts First: This is a false claim Trump liked to make during his presidency. It’s not true that Trump sent in the National Guard to Minneapolis and that Democratic leaders there refused to ask; it was actually Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, not Trump, was the one who deployed the Minnesota National Guard amid unrest in 2020 following the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. Walz, who served in the Army National Guard for more than two decades, first activated the Guard more than seven hours before Trump publicly threatened to deploy the Guard himself.

When Trump made this false claim in 2020, Walz’s office told CNN that the governor activated the Guard in response to requests from officials in Minneapolis and St. Paul – cities also run by Democrats.

Biden’s acuity

Mocking Biden’s mental acuity, Trump said, “There are a lot of bad things, like going to Idaho and saying ‘Welcome to the state of Florida, I really love it.’”

Facts First: This never happened. Biden, like Trump, has made occasional gaffes in referring to places, but this one is fiction. At a rally earlier this month, Trump claimed that Biden had gone to Iowa and wrongly claimed to be in Idaho; that false claim was published by a satirical website in 2020.

Illegal immigration

Lamenting illegal immigration, Trump said, “I believe it’s 10 million people coming in, not three or four million people. They’re pouring into our country.”

Facts First: False. “There is no empirical basis at all for the idea that 10 million undocumented people have entered under President Biden,” Emily Ryo, a professor of law and sociology at the University of Southern California’s law school, who studies immigration, said in a Monday email when CNN asked her about Trump making this claim earlier in November. Julia Gelatt, an expert at the Migration Policy Institute think tank, concurred: “Based on the data available, it is not possible that 10 million unauthorized immigrants have come across the border to the U.S. under President Biden. In fact, the reality is a fraction of that.”

Mark Morgan, who served as acting commissioner of Customs and Border Protection under Trump (and head of the Border Patrol under Obama), told The Arizona Republic in an early-November article that the “worst case scenario” for the number of illegal border crossings under Biden through October “could be 6.2 million.” Trump’s estimate was not close even to that estimate.

And there are a bunch of important nuances here. Customs and Border Protection has recorded more than 4.3 million total nationwide border “encounters” under Biden, but that number includes people who presented themselves to the authorities to begin the process of seeking humanitarian protection. And while Trump used the word “people,” Ryo emphasized that the number of “encounters” is not the same as the number of separate individuals who have crossed the border. Because many people encountered at the border are rapidly expelled under the Title 42 policy – including more than half of those encountered in the 2021 fiscal year – lots of the same people quickly come back to the border and try again. In the 2021 fiscal year, the recidivism rate was 27%, according to official data.

Inflation in turkey prices

Trump claimed, “Good luck getting a turkey for Thanksgiving. Number one, you won’t get it and if you do, you’re gonna pay three to four times more than you paid last year.”

Facts First: This isn’t even close to true. Turkey prices have increased since last Thanksgiving season, but they haven’t come close to tripling or quadrupling. The weighted average advertised supermarket price of a whole frozen hen is 97 cents per pound as of the most recent US Department of Agriculture report – up about 10% from the same time last year. The price of a whole frozen tom was up by about 7%.

And though Trump made these comments while criticizing the Biden administration over inflation, it’s worth noting that the turkey market in particular has been significantly impacted by avian flu.

Trump and wars

Trump said that his critics claimed during the 2016 presidential campaign that there would be a war within weeks if Trump was elected – “and yet I’ve gone decades, decades without a war. The first president to do it for that long a period.”

Facts First: This is nonsense. Trump was president for four years, so he could not possibly have gone “decades, decades” without a war. Also, Trump presided over the US involvement in wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, though he obviously didn’t start any of these wars and withdrew some troops from all three countries. And he was commander-in-chief for dozens of US airstrikes, including drone strikes, in Somalia, Yemen, Libya and Pakistan, plus a drone strike in Iraq that killed Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, that prompted Iranian retaliation against US service members.

Trump and ISIS

Trump gave himself credit for the liberation of ISIS’s “caliphate” in Syria, saying “the vicious ISIS caliphate, which no president was able to conquer, was decimated by me and our great warriors in less than three weeks.”

Facts First: This is a major exaggeration. The ISIS “caliphate” was declared fully liberated more than two years into Trump’s presidency, in 2019, not “less than three weeks” into his presidency in 2017; it’s not entirely clear what Trump meant by “decimated,” but the fight continued long after Trump’s first weeks in office. And Trump gave himself far too much credit for the defeat of the caliphate, as he has in the past. There was major progress against the caliphate under Obama in 2015 and 2016 – and Kurdish forces did much of the ground fighting.

IHS Markit, an information company that studied the changing the size of the caliphate, reported two days before Trump’s 2017 inauguration that the caliphate shrunk by 23% in 2016 after shrinking by 14% in 2015. “The Islamic State suffered unprecedented territorial losses in 2016, including key areas vital for the group’s governance project,” an analyst there said in a statement at the time.

Terrorism under Trump

Trump claimed: “We had practically, just about, not that I can think of, no Islamic attacks, terrorist attacks, during the Trump administration.”

Facts First: Trump did qualify the claim by saying “practically, just about, not that I can think of,” but it’s not true that there were no terrorist attacks carried out by Islamic extremists during his presidency. Trump’s own Justice Department alleged that a terror attack in New York City in 2017, which killed eight people and injured others, was an act of Islamic extremism carried out in support of ISIS. In fact, Trump repeatedly lamented this attack during his presidency. And Trump’s Justice Department alleged that a 2019 attack by an extremist member of Saudi Arabia’s military, which killed three US servicemembers and injured others at a military base in Florida, “was motivated by jihadist ideology” and was carried out by a longtime “associate” of al Qaeda.

The military’s use of old bombers

Boasting of how he supposedly rebuilt the military, Trump said, “When I got there, we had jet fighters that were 48 years old. We had bombers that were 60 years old, we had bombers where their grandfathers flew them when they were new. And now the grandchild is flying the bomber – but not anymore.”

Facts First: It’s not true that Trump ended the use of 60-year-old bombers. The military continues to use B-52 bombers that old; they are now being outfitted with new Rolls-Royce engines to prolong their life even further. (And the B-52 isn’t the only decades-old plane still in use.)

Trump’s popularity along the border

After boasting of how he is viewed by Latinos, Trump claimed that “along the border in Texas, won every single community – I won – every single community.” He said Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told him that he had “won every single area along the border, the longest since Reconstruction.”

Facts First: We don’t know what Abbott told Trump, but it’s not true that Trump won every single area along the border with Mexico. Trump lost border states in both of his previous races – California and New Mexico in both 2016 and 2020, Arizona in 2020 – and also lost numerous border communities in Texas and elsewhere both times, as you can see in these New York Times maps here and here.

Trump did make major gains with some Texas border counties between 2016 and 2020, becoming the first Republican in decades to win some of them, but his claim was about how he supposedly won them all. That’s inaccurate.

Inflation

Trump claimed about inflation: “As we speak, inflation is the highest in over 50 years.”

Facts First: This is not true; Trump exaggerated a statistic that would have worked in his favor even if he had recited it accurately. October’s year-over-year inflation rate of 7.7% is the highest since 1982, if you don’t count previous months this year when it was higher. So, ignoring those other Biden-era months, it is the highest in 40 years, not the highest in “over 50 years.”

We might let this go if Trump did not have a years-long pattern of exaggerating numbers to suit his purposes.

Daniel Dale Paul Leblanc
Daniel Dale
Paul Leblanc

As Joe Biden ramps up for a Trump rematch, Democrats worry he'd ...

CNN —

Top Democrats see Republicans’ unenthusiastic greeting of Donald Trump’s third White House bid with a combination of schadenfreude and perhaps some other German word for terrifying, unintended consequences: They love seeing the former president struggle, but privately some tell CNN they worry this could lead to a more difficult 2024 campaign against a younger, fresher Republican.

President Joe Biden heads into Thanksgiving for the first of several stretches with family members whose advice he’ll seek on whether to launch another campaign. He has privately and publicly signaled that he sees Democrats’ better-than-expected midterm results as an endorsement of him running for a second term – and he’s reveling in how many in his party seem to be agreeing with him.

Biden and his aides believe that even with a potential recession looming next year, his reelection argument will grow stronger. They say voters will start to feel the benefits from the implementation of laws the president has signed over the past two years. They think House Republicans flexing their narrow hold on power through government shutdowns and debt ceiling showdowns to try to force repeals of those same laws will help them even more.

According to CNN’s conversations with 24 Democratic elected officials, top operatives and Biden aides, the past two weeks have left them more confident that Biden would be their best bet to beat Trump in 2024. Some say they miscalculated how much appeal Biden continues to hold. Others now realize voters see him as a likable enough bulwark against extremism and a decent man, who can be a standard-setting, consensus choice amid historic polarization. Several onetime opponents say they’ve come around to thinking that maybe his approach in not responding with rage to the people raging at him has been more effective with voters.

“What he did translated more with voters than favorability ratings, and that’s important for Democrats to remember as we go forward,” said North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, adding that after talking to Biden on the election night call he received as chair of the Democratic Governors Association, he’d be “surprised” if the president doesn’t run again.

When asked, though, how they’d feel about Biden’s chances against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or other Republicans who could make a generational argument without the baggage Trump brings, many Democrats’ voices tend to tighten. “Not great,” said one top operative. “Uneasy,” said two others, in separate conversations.

Others point out that nearly all of Democrats’ key midterm victories were narrowly won, leaving them worried about how little room for error there likely will be next time.

Four Democratic members of Congress, asking not to be named to speak candidly, estimated that at least half of their colleagues would pick someone other than Biden as their 2024 nominee – if they could vote by secret ballot.

All four also said that if there were a second question about whom they’d want instead, the votes would be all over the place – with several noting that one of the strongest arguments for Biden running is that it would help Democrats avoid a chaotic primary and give their bench time to gain more experience before the 2028 election.

Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, the first Democrat in Congress to call for Biden not to run, said that regardless of his respect for the president, the midterm results or where Biden’s popularity lands, the party needs to “create pathways for new generations of leaders.”

“There’s a pragmatic element of this too. I believe the country will be in a place where they’ll be looking for a new generation as well,” said Phillips, whom several colleagues note has become the person voicing feelings others are keeping private.

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, one of the few Democrats running in 2022 who appeared at an event with the president and scored an unexpectedly big reelection win in the onetime swing state, had long talked about how the best argument for another Biden campaign was that he could beat Trump again.

Asked after Trump’s announcement if he’d be as confident in Biden against another Republican, Bennet dodged.

“I just think that’s too contingent a question to answer,” the senator said.

A few weeks ago, when many expected significant House losses for the party, Phillips was one of multiple Democrats predicting that the election aftermath would include more and louder calls for Biden to step aside. Phillips acknowledged last week that those calls haven’t come but attributed that more to the “culture of deference” in Congress than to renewed support for Biden.

“It’s a little bit like when Trump was president, and none of the Republicans would say what they really thought on the record,” said one Democratic strategist.

Democratic Rep. Ann McLane Kuster also expressed doubts about Biden running for reelection as she campaigned in New Hampshire. Back in Washington after winning a sixth term by a wider-than-anticipated margin, she said she’s still not convinced.

“I’m still in a wait-and-see, and I think a lot of people are,” Kuster said, noting that she has “been a Biden fan since she I was pregnant with my son, who was just sworn into the New York Bar.”

Asked how she’d feel about Biden going up against a Republican who was younger and fresher than Trump, Kuster initially responded with a long “Hmmmmm.” She said she’s less concerned about that because she believes if Biden does run, that will drive Republicans to Trump, while if Biden doesn’t, that will drive them away from Trump.

“It is an easy thing for people to underestimate Joe Biden – and they’ve been doing it and being wrong for a couple of election cycles now,” said one Biden adviser. As for those who still have doubts, “there are some Democrats who aren’t happy unless they can be anxious about something,” the adviser added.

Incoming members of Congress who won their seats this year are among the most openly enthusiastic about a Biden reelection campaign.

“I think he’s the guy who can beat anybody,” said California Rep.-elect Robert Garcia, who’s close with both the West Wing and Vice President Kamala Harris. “Presidents get reelected if they’re successful and if the American people want them back, and to me there is nothing in the president’s first two years that points to that he shouldn’t run again.”

Maxwell Frost, the 25-year-old Florida Democrat who is the first member of Generation Z (those born after 1996) elected to Congress, said he was supporting Biden too, minutes after borrowing a tie to make his first visit to the House floor to watch 82-year-old House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announce she’d be stepping down from leadership.

“He’s been unafraid to put forth bold, transformational ideas and policies, and that’s really what excites young voters,” Frost said, citing the infrastructure deal and the health care, tax and climate package dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. Asked whether he was concerned about a potential generational contrast with Biden if the Republicans back someone other than Trump, Frost said, “I’d say good luck with whoever they put up.”

“It doesn’t matter” who the Republican nominee is, argued Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, fresh off his own reelection in a swing state that Biden won narrowly in 2020. “The Biden-Harris administration will carry Nevada and will carry the country again.”

Drawing a contrast with Trump

After a strategy of not even saying Trump’s name at all in his first year and then pounding on Trump by name throughout the midterm campaigning, the president is expected to revert to talking about his predecessor “sparingly,” an adviser said. What Biden and aides will do, though – like with the new section of the White House website touting administration achievements, which was launched last week a few hours before Trump’s presidential announcement – is emphasize their record in contrast with Trump’s rhetoric.

A Trump rematch might be easier, several Democratic operatives involved with the preliminary thinking said, because they’d know how to go about it. They hope that one lesson of the midterms is Democrats’ ability to make voters see many leading Republicans as extreme and tainted by Trump.

As they wait on a Biden decision that they expect to drag into at least January, and with members of the president’s own Cabinet divided on whether he’ll go through with a launch, aides are planning to head into next year with events and travel to showcase now-tangible achievements.

“There’ll be a bridge built that wasn’t built this year, more of the impact of prescription drug benefits will be felt,” said Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, an early and consistent Biden supporter.

Early planning is also underway for a string of state dinners, starting with one scheduled for December 1 to honor French President Emmanuel Macron, both to highlight what the White House says is Biden’s reasserting of American global leadership and to demonstrate another notch toward a post-pandemic normal.

Meanwhile, aides are also gearing up for two years of trying to frame every move by the new House Republican majority as extremist overreach, including undermining the legitimacy of any investigations in the eyes of the media and the public. They’re counting on House Republicans who face tough reelections in 2024 to themselves back away from some of the biggest threats, such as impeaching the president. And as personally painful as any Republican inquiries of Biden’s son Hunter will be for the president, aides believe that the politics will boomerang in their favor by making Republicans look like they’re chasing conspiracy theories down rabbit holes rather than governing and by making Biden seem empathetic in a way that has consistently been his greatest strength.

“The last two Democratic presidents lost the House – by far more than Biden did – and in both cases, that provided a powerful reelection foil,” said a person familiar with White House thinking. “We are dealing with a much more extreme Republican Party than they were. … But Biden does not provoke the Republican base in the way that other national Democrats have.”

Age vs. ‘wisdom and experience’

Republican attempts to make Biden an anchor to Democratic midterm candidates by saying his name and flashing his image in ads about inflation, border control or gas prices don’t seem to have been decisive for independents and swing voters. Biden’s greatest weakness has repeatedly proved his greatest strength, several Democratic strategists said: People don’t feel strongly about him. There are few T-shirts with his face on them or flags with his name on them, but he also doesn’t inspire passionate hate. As Republican operatives tend to admit, voters’ sense of him is so well established that it’s hard to make anything stick to him.

What does stick, in focus group after focus group: his age – he turned 80 on Sunday – and the sense that he’s not up to the job. One place where that caused problems: Pennsylvania, where Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman was seen as independent from Biden – until the aftermath of his stroke. Then, focus groups noted, voters began to draw connections between the two men related to their physical fitness for office. (Fetterman, however, was able to overcome enough of those perceptions to help his party flip an open seat.)

Biden “has his work cut out for him in terms of having folks believe he can command this job for four more years,” said one person familiar with the focus group findings.

Some Democratic politicians and operatives shudder imagining a younger Republican nominee campaigning around the country at multiple stops a day, bounding onstage and reinforcing the skepticism that’s already in voters’ minds. These Democrats say their solace is fantasizing about Trump failing to snag the GOP nomination and then sabotaging the Republican nominee’s campaign, out of spite.

Biden’s inner circle has seen the focus group data and has heard the same complaints. They’ve also seen how those concerns faded over the summer, as Biden signed more bills. That mattered for other Democrats too, with Rep. Dan Kildee, who just won a tight reelection race in Michigan, saying that people connecting with those legislative successes “got me over the finish line.”

Kildee said he believed Biden would be strong against Trump in Michigan, which Trump won by less than half a point in 2016 but Biden carried by 3 points in 2020. As for how he’d fare against another Republican, “there’s too many chess moves between now and then to figure that out yet,” Kildee said.

After how unpredictable the factors shaping the 2020 and 2022 elections were, Biden’s circle doesn’t see a point in trying to guess exactly what he’d be campaigning on by the end of 2024. But the Biden adviser touted the president’s “wisdom and experience,” saying that had “allowed him to achieve an extraordinary legislative record and extraordinary record of global leadership in the first two years of his term.”

“I don’t see anybody else that’s stronger. With all the things he’s doing, I don’t care how old he is,” said Eileen Reyes, a former Pete Buttigieg supporter from Luzerne, Pennsylvania, speaking ahead of Biden’s joint rally with Barack Obama in Philadelphia the Saturday night before the election.

Stephanie Schlatter, a lawyer in Washington who wore her old Biden-Harris white T-shirt to the celebratory speech Biden delivered at a Washington theater two days after the midterms, agreed.

“My parents are older than he is, and they’re still whooping it up,” she said. “People are starting to come back from the nastiness, and they’re starting to see results.”

As worries about Biden in 2024 grow, other Democrats aren't ...

CNN —

A challenge requires a challenger – and all the Democrats being discussed as potential primary opponents to President Joe Biden tell CNN they’re ruling out runs and warning others to follow suit.

The chatter is fed by Democratic officials and party leaders who have begun to doubt that Biden is, as he’s insisted privately to donors and others, their strongest candidate to beat Donald Trump – or another GOP candidate – in 2024. And it’s being propelled even more by the 79-year-old President’s age, which has prompted questions about what kind of campaign schedule he’d be able to keep up.

Fear runs deep of yet another unfavorable Biden comparison to Jimmy Carter, who survived a 1980 primary challenge from Ted Kennedy but not the lasting wound going into the general election. Democrats privately hoping Biden might reverse course and not run are petrified that they’re backbiting their way into allowing Trump and Trumpism back into power.

That hasn’t stopped muted worries from going around the West Wing, according to four aides familiar with the conversations, that someone may yet emerge ahead of the President’s planned spring 2023 formal reelection campaign launch. Biden advisers expect to stick to that no matter what happens, including if Trump decides to jump in early.

“Nothing about our timeline changes, but we’re prepared if he decides to run,” one person familiar with the Biden team’s political planning said about Trump.

But even Rep. Ro Khanna, the California congressman and former Bernie Sanders campaign co-chair, who first won his seat by beating an incumbent in a primary, said he won’t entertain the thought of jumping in against Biden, although he’s aware he’s being whispered about – so much that a close friend had a dream over July Fourth weekend that he did it.

“Absolutely not,” Khanna told CNN. “I plan to support (Biden) because of the danger that Donald Trump poses. I would certainly not do anything to weaken him, and I hope no one else will do anything to weaken him. He’s still the safe brand in the midwestern states to make sure Trump is kept far away from the Oval Office.”

That also goes for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has been causing the most antsy whispers from the Biden orbit with his comments calling out a lack of Democratic action and energy and his buying a July Fourth ad in Florida hitting Gov. Ron DeSantis, a prospective 2024 GOP candidate. Newsom, who’s facing reelection in November, compared the Democratic dynamics to those he initially faced in his recall election last year, when he and advisers worked to scare off several Democrats who’d looked at jumping in against him.

“The success of our recall was about unifying around our party and defining the opposition. We need to unify the Democratic Party and not destroy ourselves from within,” Newsom said. “We need to have our President’s back. But we also have to get on the field. He needs troops. He has to govern. Our job is to organize, and it’s to have his back.”

The same goes for J.B. Pritzker, the billionaire first-term Illinois governor who also drew some behind-the-scenes brushback from Biden world by delivering a speech about his exhaustion with the Democratic status quo in famous first-presidential primary state New Hampshire. The Democrat, who’s running for a second term in November, lit up even more speculation with his response to the Highland Park shooting in his state earlier this month, which was more forceful than Biden’s.

Biden “has said he’s running for reelection and I support that,” Pritzker told CNN, adding that though he thinks some other opponent may yet emerge, Biden “will win the nomination, and yet, it’ll be Ted Kennedy running against Jimmy Carter … They will lose and they will take away from the President. That’s not what we need right now.”

The speculation is at a high enough fever that when Pete Buttigieg’s PAC reactivated on Twitter at the end of June to endorse a few candidates for US House and state legislature, several plugged-in operatives began to wonder if this was the first step in the transportation secretary relaunching as a candidate. His attendance at Democratic National Committee events and meetings with a few potential future donors only sparked more talk.

But there’s nothing to that, according to a Transportation Department spokesperson, who said, “Buttigieg has had no involvement in Win the Era PAC since his nomination as Secretary. He is 100 percent focused on his job at DOT, including implementing President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law.”

Some have talked about Jared Polis, the Colorado governor known for straying from what became Democratic orthodoxy on Covid-19 lockdowns and is facing voters this fall. He has a personal fortune, several operatives noted, and while not enough to self-fund, enough to possibly seed a campaign and feel confident that he wouldn’t have to worry about endangering future job prospects. Polis campaign spokesperson Amber Miller said he’s “not considering anything like that and is focused on running the state of Colorado. If he is re-elected, he plans to serve his entire term as governor of Colorado.”

Vice President Kamala Harris has repeatedly said Biden intends to run and that she’d be his running mate, and no one around her or anywhere else believes she’d be able to pull off a campaign that started by breaking with him.

Sanders, the Vermont senator who has twice sought the Democratic nod, told CNN last month he would not run against Biden. A spokesperson for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, meanwhile, told CNN that nothing has changed since the Massachusetts Democrat told NBC News that she’s not running for president in 2024 and would be supporting Biden. Jeff Weaver, Sanders’ top political adviser and former campaign manager, said trying to run by appealing to his wing of the party “would be an almost insurmountable climb to get to the top of that mountain, given that Bernie has said he’s going to be supporting Joe Biden if he runs for re-election.”

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who defeated a member of Democratic House leadership to come to Congress, told late night host Stephen Colbert at the end of June that she was more focused on preserving American democracy than presidential speculation.

But she’s also held off on saying she would support Biden for reelection, noting that the President hasn’t said he’s running himself.

Asked by CNN if that left space for her to consider running a youthful, progressive primary against him, a spokesperson for the congresswoman didn’t return requests for comment.

Facing a ‘soft’ primary

Carter-Kennedy isn’t the only historical example on Democrats’ minds. There’s Ronald Reagan’s bruising 1976 primary campaign against Republican President Gerald Ford, which helped pave the way for Carter’s win. Or George H.W. Bush never quite recovering from Pat Buchanan’s 1992 primary campaign, which hurt him with the GOP base heading into the general election.

Several senior Democrats, though, cited 1968, when President Lyndon Johnson faced a primary challenge from Eugene McCarthy. Eventually, other candidates jumped in, leading the President to withdraw that March from running for reelection.

Operatives around a number of prospective presidential candidates argue that Biden is already facing a “soft” primary challenge from many directions. The goal, they say, is not to run against Biden, but rather to implicitly reassure the President that Democrats have other good options from the next generation or two, and that he should be comfortable passing the torch to them.

The other goal is for Democrats to get as ready as they can, on the chance that Biden drags out his reelection decision and then changes his mind so late into the presidential cycle that other candidates are hobbled in launching campaigns and raising money.

For all the free media attention that would come from declaring a primary campaign against Biden, no one seems to want to go down as blowing a hole in the party for Republicans to march back through – particularly at a moment when apocalyptic feelings are so high. This is about future ambitions, too: Those would-be candidates are aware Democratic voters would never forgive a spoiler.

“It’s about us having his back, not taking back some wing of the party,” Newsom said. “It’s about everybody disabusing ourselves that we have the luxury of division from within.”

“I believe there will be plenty of time post-Donald Trump to debate the future of the Democratic Party,” Khanna said. “For people who have future ambition, they’d much rather be running in a post-Donald Trump and post-Joe Biden world.”

Barack Obama faced a flurry of primary speculation at about this point ahead of his own reelection campaign 12 years ago – to the point that Gallup tested how well he’d do if Hillary Clinton ran against him, and Sanders started poking around in New Hampshire about jumping in against him.

Many of the Democratic leaders, operatives and donors who spoke to CNN about having these conversations insist it’s precisely their fear of Trump beating Biden that is driving them to cast around for possible other options.

Not only is Biden now clocking lower approval ratings than almost every Democratic governor and senator on the ballot in November, but several internal Democratic polls have shown him struggling against Trump in battleground states.

Asked if he understood what was generating the talk of a primary challenge that he thinks may yet emerge, Pritzker paused. First, he reiterated his support of Biden. Then, he repeated his call for more energy and action, without mentioning the President specifically.

“We absolutely need to be stronger and louder in our condemnation of the right wing and what they stand for, and in our defense of the liberties of women and those who are marginalized,” Pritzker said. “There is a palpable change in attitude among Democrats.”

Pushing back on the nudging

Before he launched his 2020 campaign, Biden advisers had bounced around the idea of a one-term pledge as a way to answer questions about his age. Biden nixed the idea, saying he’d never be able to get anything done as an immediate lame duck. He’s made similar comments about what would happen to his power at home and on the world stage if he were to announce he’s not running for reelection.

Few around Biden see that changing. Some even suggested that a primary challenger could inadvertently help him recover from approval numbers stuck below 40% by giving him a foil. If that challenge came from the left and allowed him to argue he hasn’t kowtowed to progressives – as Republicans and some Democratic moderates claim – several operatives said that would be even better.

But as White House aides regularly point out, no incumbent president has launched a reelection campaign this early, and Biden was the last serious primary contender to announce a 2020 campaign, pushing back on those who urged him to declare earlier.

“There’s nobody who’s more infamous about his inability to make a decision about running for president of the United States,” joked one Democratic member of Congress, who asked not to be named. “And hey, he’s President.”

And while four years ago at this same point ahead of the 2020 cycle, the Democratic National Committee was deep into preparations for primaries and debates, no such efforts are underway.

Long before he became famous for managing Howard Dean’s anti-establishment 2004 presidential campaign (in what was an open Democratic field), Joe Trippi was a young aide to Kennedy’s 1980 primary challenge, running the floor operation for several states on the floor of the convention that summer.

Trippi said he hopes anyone thinking of a Biden primary realizes it would be “murder-suicide,” and warned his fellow Democrats: “Nothing good can come from it.”

“I learned that lesson the hard way as a young idealistic progressive in the late 70s early 80s,” Trippi said. “What we got for it was eight years of Reagan and four years of H.W. Bush.”

The Bidens make an island escape ahead of consequential 2024 ...

CNN —

President Joe Biden this week returns to St. Croix, one of his and first lady Jill Biden’s beloved vacation spots, seeking a final opportunity for rest before what is expected to be a contentious 2023 and reelection run.

As Biden unwinds in a familiar spot – the first couple have visited the US Virgin Islands for more than a dozen years, vacationing there approximately ten times since the mid-2000s – the work on his path forward intensifies back in a frigid Washington, DC. Advisers are already preparing the president’s annual State of the Union address, typically delivered in late January or early February, viewing the speech as an opportunity to lay down the stakes and themes that Biden could adopt on the campaign trail.

The first couple arrived in St. Croix on Tuesday, along with family members, a gathering of the tight-knit clan who, according to several people with knowledge of recent conversations who have spoken to CNN, have now pledged support for another White House run by Biden. Senior administration officials once viewed this week’s tropical escape as a crucial juncture that would play a major part in deciding his political future, and – while the president does still plan to mull with his family the pros and cons of mounting a reelection bid – people who have discussed the matter with him lately say the decision is essentially made.

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Clues that Biden was expected in St. Croix were everywhere in the run-up to his arrival: the jumbo C-17 transport planes sitting among the puddle jumpers at the airport; temporary security checkpoints among the bougainvillea along the quiet coastal road; unusually high numbers of visitors from Washington.

Even for a popular tourist destination accustomed to a wave of winter travelers, this week’s presidential visit has maxed out the island’s resources. Rental cars were all taken, and hotels were at capacity, according to residents.

After the Bidens skipped the US Virgin Islands tradition the last two years, this trip may have some of the same vibes as one of their more recent vacations. In the early hours of 2019, when Biden was last contemplating a presidential bid, the couple were photographed taking a selfie at Point Udall in St. Croix on New Year’s Day, catching the first sunrise of the new year at the easternmost point under the American Flag, as the popular tourist spot is known.

A decision had been made. Several months later, Biden would announce his candidacy for the presidency.

Privacy, please

In 2014, Joe and Jill Biden enjoyed their time on the island so much, they visited St. Croix twice – once to ring in the new year and again for a weekend in March, a quick getaway trip not on the then-vice president’s official schedule.

In 2015, the couple again passed the week after Christmas there, after deciding he would not run for the White House.

In 2016, Bidens spent the waning days of his vice presidency relaxing on St. Croix, ahead of Donald Trump’s ascension to the White House.

Biden’s loyalty to the US territory has been the most high-profile of any American politician in recent history. A sitting American president has not visited St. Croix since Harry S. Truman in 1948. Truman arrived by yacht – the USS Williamsburg – and was hosted at an estate owned by the manufacturer of Jeeps.

In 1997, President Bill Clinton visited neighboring St. Thomas, another of the US Virgin Islands, for his winter vacation, chartering a catamaran with his family and snorkeling with daughter Chelsea.

In a 2020 statement, Gov. Albert Bryan Jr. said of Biden, “We consider him our hometown president.” Asked why the Bidens have picked St. Croix as their island getaway, Vanessa Valdivia, the first lady’s press secretary, told CNN, “Over the years, the president and first lady have frequently traveled to a warmer location the week after Christmas, going to the US Virgin Island several times.”

For the entirety of his presidency, Biden has skipped out when he can on weekends in Washington, DC, in favor of his longtime family home in Wilmington, Delaware, where residence staff and storied rooms aren’t a thing.

St. Croix, for the first couple, has provided that sort of intense privacy, plus the warmth and beach that the Bidens favor.

During their visits in the years after Biden served as vice president, when his security apparatus dwindled and normalcy found a return to their daily routine, the first couple could be spotted around the island on occasion with virtually no entourage, driving themselves along the flower-lined roads in a rental Toyota sedan.

The home they leased was modest – only a few bedrooms – and was available at other times of the year for other tourists on vacation rental websites.

Yet on Tuesday, law enforcement was busy in the same area making preparations for Biden’s visit, including setting up flood lights and popping up white tents to act as checkpoints along the roadside.

The Bidens are staying at the home of his friends Bill and Connie Neville in St. Croix, the White House says. The president and first lady have stayed at the home of the tech executive on previous visits to the island.

Beach people

The first couple are “beach people,” said a family friend familiar with their vacation preferences. Others who know them well said there is little more they enjoy when relaxing than pitching an umbrella on the beach, tossing a towel onto the sand and closing their eyes under a warm sun.

Their Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, neighbors are now used to being screened by Secret Service agents during beach walks, the telltale signal the president and/or first lady have walked down from their oceanside vacation residence to the beach for a respite closer to the waves.

The first lady, in particular, finds peace in her books and soaking up the sun. This spring, staff for Jill Biden – on a solo, whirlwind, three-country visit to Ecuador, Panama and Costa Rica – made sure to schedule private time for the first lady beside the pool at a resort out of Panama City, so she could lay out like dozens of other vacationers, steps from the waterside.

“They both prefer hot and sunny and humid to wet and snowy and cold,” said another close acquaintance of the Bidens.

For the first couple, a true respite involves privacy as well, not just sun and warmth. St. Croix has fit the checklist. Locals have spotted the couple in years past at the grocery store, going mostly unnoticed as they shopped for vacation provisions at Seaside Market and Deli. Joe Biden has played rounds of golf at the Buccaneer Resort, a par-70 course described as “challenging, yet very playable” on the property’s website.

They have attended mass at the white-steepled Holy Cross Catholic Church in the island’s main town Christiansted.

Reelection discussions on the island

The break from Washington comes on the heels of a busy holiday season. Jill Biden – so tasked with dozens of White House celebrations, photo lines, family visits and general hosting duties that she had laryngitis for several days – is on her second week off from her teaching duties at Northern Virginia Community College.

For Joe Biden, the stakes of getting away are not just about rest and recuperation.

Barring unforeseen events or a sudden change of heart, Biden’s team is laying the groundwork for a reelection announcement in the coming months, putting to rest persistent speculation about whether the 80-year-old president would seek another term.

CNN has reported that Jill Biden is “all in” on the 2024 campaign despite previous concerns about the deep implications of what a second run might mean for her family and her husband. She has, as one White House official told CNN, “zero concerns” about Joe Biden’s schedule and stamina.

“This is, ultimately, a family decision,” Joe Biden said at a news conference last month. “I think everybody wants me to run, but we’re going to have discussions about it.”

Aside from the rigors of launching the final political campaign of his career, Biden will face a new Republican majority in the House of Representatives, intent on stymieing many of his legislative ambitions. Republican leaders have also vowed to mount investigations into Biden’s administration and his family.

With his legislative prospects dampened, Biden plans to travel extensively in the new year promoting the accomplishments from his first two years in office. It will be an intense period that could ultimately include a rematch with his 2020 opponent, Trump – and one that will require the full backing of his wife of 45 years, along with the support of his extended family.

If there is a time to speak up on hesitations, either his own or from his offspring, it would be during this vacation.

Wayne Nichols, who leads Alexander Hamilton tours of St. Croix in the character of the founding father, recalled a 2019 encounter he had with Biden, with whom he engaged while the then-not-quite-presidential candidate was walking alone on the east end of the island.

At the time, Biden was also mulling a daunting campaign. After passing on a bid in 2016 following the death of his son, he was being encouraged by his family to mount a challenge to Trump.

Nichols said he stopped Biden to ask if he would run.

“My question to him was, ‘Well, you’re going to run?’ He goes, ‘Well, I’m running now.’ And I thought, well, technically you’re walking,” Nichols recalled this week, wondering whether he might again cross paths with Biden.

Nichols came across Joe Biden a second time that week in 2019, while out for a walk on the island – Joe Biden up front, Jill Biden walking a few paces behind – when someone in the group told Jill Biden that her husband ought to run for president.

“‘When you get up there, let him know that,’” Nichols said she responded.

As the Bidens make similar deliberations this year, they won’t be getting around in a rented Toyota and their stops on the island will go less unnoticed.

“I have a feeling this is the place,” Nichols said of Biden often choosing St. Croix as his spot to find stillness for a consequential decision about the future. “Chilling there by the water with the nice weather. They get to talk about it. And I believe he’ll run again, only because I don’t know that he thinks there’s any alternative.”

Kate Bennett Kevin Liptak
Kate Bennett
Kevin Liptak

Buttigieg more in demand than Harris on midterm campaign trail as ...

CNN —

A selfie crowd formed around Pete Buttigieg as he stood in line for coffee at the airport in Washington.

One woman said she wasn’t going to stop because she wasn’t sure it was him. “It’s me,” the Transportation secretary replied.

An older man explained to his wife, “That’s Pete BOOT-GUG,” missing the pronunciation and the emphasis.

“He’s the President’s…” the man said, unable to come up with his job title.

And yet, it’s Buttigieg – whose only political experience before his failed presidential bid was serving as mayor of South Bend, Indiana – who has become the most requested surrogate on the campaign trail for Democratic candidates in the midterms, people familiar with the requests tell CNN. He’s so in demand that he’s getting more requests than Vice President Kamala Harris, those sources tell CNN – but still fewer than President Joe Biden – as Democrats look to defend their narrow congressional majorities and win governor’s races in November.

With invitations flowing into the White House and the Democratic National Committee, a relatively low-ranking Cabinet secretary’s staff has to choose between Democratic candidates trying to chase him down. There’s no precedent for this. But there’s also no precedent for the winner of the Iowa caucuses becoming Transportation secretary and proving more agile on camera than the vice president and Biden.

Both Buttigieg and Harris are widely expected to run to succeed Biden – whether an open race emerges in 2024 or 2028 – and for Democrats looking ahead, the party’s preference for Buttigieg on the trail may be an early indicator of the future direction of the party overall.

Two dozen operatives and candidates tell CNN they think Buttigieg is benefiting from the desire for a fresh face. Despite a steady uptick since the summer, Biden’s approval ratings are low, and Democrats believe that’s hurting Harris too, who has had her own political struggles – even as much of the administration’s agenda remains broadly popular.

“It’s the association with being a Democrat – but not with Biden or Harris,” said one operative involved in multiple House races, explaining why campaigns have been gravitating to Buttigieg. “In the context of what people have to pick from, he’s very popular.”

It’s not just about popularity. Some campaign operatives admit, with a note of embarrassment, they have been reluctant to invite Harris out of fear that would bring scrutiny from Republicans who monitor every word she says in ways Buttigieg rarely has to worry about, leaving candidates as collateral damage in an attack (fairly or unfairly) aimed at the first Black woman vice president.

And some point to the basics of tight campaign budgets in the final stretch of the midterms: the vice president’s security footprint is large, and when she travels for politics, some of the costs for the Secret Service and local police protection have to be covered by the campaigns that are bringing her in. Even just a few hours on the ground can run tens of thousands of dollars and create traffic and other hold ups.

Buttigieg, by contrast, can travel with just a member of the Protective Services Division squished beside him in coach on a commercial flight. Harris only meets people who’ve been wanded by the Secret Service and tested for Covid-19, while Buttigieg can go to political events making his way through the airport in the reverse of his campaign trail style – suit jacket on now, but no tie.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, left, listens to Vice President Kamala Harris speak during the US-ASEAN Special Summit at the State Department in Washington, DC, on May 13, 2022. Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images

White House political aides “recognize the dexterity and want to dispatch him to places that he uniquely can go and where Democrats don’t traditionally campaign,” said one person familiar with Buttigieg’s plans taking shape.

That’s in contrast to the vice president’s team, which has been hoping to rebuild her standing by keeping her away from many tight races and focused largely on Black voters, among whom she remains very popular, and on women as she talks about abortion rights, arguing that she can have a large influence indirectly.

Aides to a West Coast House Democrat in a very competitive race were debating who was going to be their one big ask in the final stretch. The President? The vice president? The first lady?

“A senior staffer on our campaign says, ‘Throwing in two cents from our finance director – our San Francisco people have expressed that they don’t really care about POTUS, VPOTUS or the first lady. … They just really like Secretary Pete,’” recounted one of the aides.

One Biden adviser highlighted an intentional deployment of the Cabinet over the final month in races where they think they’ll matter most, urging them to appear in their personal capacities to avoid violating the Hatch Act provisions on not mixing government work with campaigning. Only a few secretaries beyond Buttigieg, though, have generated much interest: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge. Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough, rarely much of a political presence, will also hit the trail soon for a few events.

But of those, Buttigieg is the only one who shows up in early presidential polls. He’s the one who was invited to address House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s retreat for top donors in Napa Valley in August. He’s the one who’s already headlined an event for Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto, seen as perhaps the most endangered Democrat in the Senate, and for Nan Whaley, the Democratic nominee for Ohio governor.

A return to New Hampshire with ‘high hopes’

Buttigieg, who came in a close second in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary, was state party officials’ top choice to headline their big fall fundraising dinner, according to party officials, even before a poll that came out in late July showing him leading the field for a theoretical New Hampshire primary, essentially tied with Biden but edging out Harris by 11 percentage points.

To the surprise of some in New Hampshire, the White House political office greenlit the invitation not long after. Tickets sold out.

The morning of the New Hampshire speech, state Rep. Matt Wilhelm proudly tweeted a photo of a “BOOT EDGE EDGE” mug he had left over from when he’d endorsed and volunteered on his presidential campaign two years ago.

“When I was asked by the party, ‘Who do we want as a surrogate?’ not only was I supportive of Pete, because yeah, I want him back here, but I think that he’s the kind of messenger that we want on the ground to get people fired up ahead of the midterms,” Wilhelm said. He remains very popular in the state, added Rep. Annie Kuster, who’d endorsed him in 2020 and had him headline a fundraiser for her campaign this year.

The synth-horn notes of “High Hopes,” his old campaign anthem, played as Buttigieg took the stage. He hadn’t done a big political speech in two years. And while rattling off Biden administration accomplishments – like putting Ketanji Brown Jackson on the Supreme Court and signing bipartisan legislation providing health care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits – he had some rusty moments working out new lines.

“Most Americans don’t need culture wars every time there’s a gay Muppet or Black mermaid on TV – we need funding for our public schools,” he said in one riff.

But it all built to a very Buttigieg centerpiece, intended to generate knowing smirks more than laughs, and metered out to invite the standing ovation he got.

“Teddy Roosevelt had the square deal. FDR had the New Deal. So I’m going to say this body of defining achievements, this incredibly productive year, amounts to such a big deal that we ought to just call it The Big Deal,” Buttigieg said, putting that up against Republicans’ “big lie” that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.

“And if, in the tradition of our President, you like to insert an extra adjective in there, feel free.”

He ended with a passage that could one day drop right into a political convention speech, soaring past Biden or the infrastructure law or any more Trump mentions, to an aspirational line about building a “truly representative, fully inclusive, multi-racial, democratic republic like the one that has been under constant construction here on US soil for the last 200 years.”

“This is somebody who really believes in the promise of democracy and in delivering results,” Sen. Maggie Hassan said after the final standing ovation for Buttigieg. “And we have seen him delivering results. And his pragmatic approach really means a lot to people here.” Hassan, who is facing a competitive reelection after winning her first term by only 1,017 votes, also had Buttigieg headline a fundraiser for her in Washington earlier this summer.

‘You’ve got to be in Joe Biden’s house’

Two weeks later, on another Saturday night, Harris was the featured speaker at the Texas Democrats’ big dinner in Austin. Every statewide Democratic candidate skipped, except the nominee for state railroad commissioner. Tickets were not as hard to get, though the state chair said it was their highest grossing event ever, and some took note that several state legislators from other parts of the state specifically flew in to be there.

Harris’ stump speeches tend to be more grounded and direct, much like she is herself.

She rooted her Austin speech in home turf stories about former Rep. Barbara Jordan and Lyndon Johnson, leading an enthusiastic call and response. She built up to a line she has often used, paraphrasing, she recalled, “the words of a great American leader, Coretta Scott King, who said: The struggle for justice is a never-ending process. And freedom is never really won; you earn it, and you win it in each and every generation.”

Even though the White House political office lets Harris’ team pick her spots and write her speeches, she can’t stray far. When she talks up Biden’s record, she has to be subsumed to the President. She can’t put her own spin on it, aside from occasional moments, such as two days after Biden rolled out his marijuana policy changes without her in the frame, when she said, “Nobody should have to go to jail for smoking weed.”

Harris discusses reproductive rights at the LBJ Presidential Library on October 8, 2022, in Austin, Texas. Rick Kern/Getty Images

“There’s a house that Joe Biden built – it’s got a bunch of rooms, and as vice president you can choose which of the rooms you sit in. But you’ve got to be in Joe Biden’s house,” a Harris adviser said recently, trying to come up with a metaphor to describe the dynamics within the administration.

That reality – in addition to the different political landscapes in the two states – helps explains the different responses Buttigieg and Harris received in New Hampshire and Texas.

“The administration does not have a good brand in Texas – and that’s Joe Biden or Kamala Harris,” said one of the attendees at the Austin event who asked not to be named.

By contrast, being part of the administration has benefits for Buttigieg – without some of the burdens Harris faces. Since he’s doling out federal dollars in his official capacity, politicians like to be seen with him. At the dinner in New Hampshire, nearly every speaker made a joke about how they hoped he’d come back with another big check for an infrastructure project.

This past Wednesday in South Carolina, House Majority Whip Rep. Jim Clyburn – a key Biden supporter, and a promoter of Harris – spent the day with the secretary, going around with him to multiple events.

But he said he had been eager to have Harris appear at the South Carolina Democratic Party dinner in June, and noted that she was in the critical early primary state again at his alma mater just a few weeks ago.

“When you’re bringing her in, there’s a cost factor that goes far beyond what most Democratic Party folks can afford,” Clyburn said, not the expense of Air Force 2. “When we were bringing her to South Carolina, it was a real big problem. In fact, yours truly had to step up to help the party be able to afford it.”

That speech, to an enthusiastic room in Columbia, was warmly received. Clyburn called the money he’d kicked in from his own campaign account “money well spent.”

Ducking presidential talk

Buttigieg is both self-aware enough to know that any move suggesting presidential thinking would almost certainly leak and self-confident enough to believe he doesn’t need to start laying the groundwork for a campaign now.

People in Buttigieg’s orbit and the secretary himself try to downplay any presidential speculation, and any suggestion of tension between the once and possible future rivals. People in Harris’ orbit say that they don’t spend much time thinking about the Transportation secretary, but when they do, they’re often left feeling he gets a pass on moves that for her would be seen as machinations.

“The future is Joe Biden is going to run for reelection in 2024 – so what’s the point of thinking beyond that?” said one Buttigieg adviser.

In the airport coffee line, though, a woman shrugged as her husband tried to explain who Buttigieg was after mispronouncing his name.

“I would not have known him if he bought my coffee,” she said.

That’s the downside for Buttigieg. Not far away, a stand was selling Harris bobbleheads and a T-shirt with her face on it.

CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated to more accurately reflect the demand for tickets for Harris’ Austin event, which was the highest grossing event ever for the state party, according to its chair.

Biden 2024: President announces he's running for reelection

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden announced his 2024 reelection campaign in a video released Tuesday morning, telling Americans "let's finish this job" as he seeks a second term in the White House.

Biden, making official a campaign that has long been expected, said the country remains in a "battle for the soul of America," doubling down on the central message of his campaign four years ago. He said the question facing the nation is "whether, in the years ahead, we have more freedom or less freedom, more rights or fewer."

"This is not a time to be complacent," Biden said in the three-minute video. "That's why I'm running for reelection. Because I know America. I know we're good and decent people. I know we're still a country that believes in honesty and respect and treating each other with dignity."

For months, Biden has said that he intends to run for a second term. But he held off making a formal announcement. He timed his video with the four-year anniversary of his entry into the 2020 presidential campaign.

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His first public remarks after announcing his candidacy came Tuesday to a group of union workers who greeted him with chants of "let's go, Joe!" and "four more years!"

"I make no apologies for being labeled the most pro-union president American history – I'm proud of it," Biden told members of North America's Building Trades Unions at their legislative conference in Washington.

Though not a campaign event, Biden took several swipes at Republicans and promoted his administration's efforts to create manufacturing jobs and grow the economy. "We now have to finish the job," he said, echoing the message in his campaign video.

Biden rails on 'MAGA extremists' as he kicks off campaign

Biden lacks a formidable Democratic challenger for the party's nomination. Former President Donald Trump has secured frontrunner status in the Republican presidential primary, setting up a potential rematch of 2020. Although Biden did not mention Trump by name, the video includes images of the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol and an overt reference to Trump's hold on the Republican Party.

"Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms, cutting Social Security that you paid for your entire life while cutting taxes for the very wealthy," Biden said. "Dictating what health care decisions women can make. Banning books. And telling people who they can love."

Biden's move comes as he remains hampered by low approval ratings in the low 40s and concerns about the economy. Polls continue to show the majority of Democrats prefer someone else as their nominee. Biden, 80, is already the oldest-serving president, and he would be 86 when he finishes a second term if he wins reelection.

Biden is set to address the North America's Building Trades Unions at 12:30 p.m. ET at the Washington Hilton hotel, giving him an audience of loyal supporters to deliver his first speech as a 2024 candidate.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running with Biden again, will be the featured guest at a reproductive rights rally on Howard University's campus in Washington, D.C., later in the day.

"Every generation of Americans has faced a moment when they’ve had to defend democracy, stand up for our personal freedoms, and stand up for our right to vote and our civil rights," Biden said. "This is our moment."

Who is leading the campaign?

The Biden campaign unveiled a leadership team that includes several close allies as campaign national co-chairs: Rep. Lisa Blunt-Rochester, D-Del., Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-Texas, film producer Jeffrey Katzenberg and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Biden named Julie Chávez Rodriguez his campaign manager. Chávez Rodriguez has served as senior advisor to the president and White House director of intergovernmental affairs. Chávez Rodriguez, the granddaughter of civil rights leader Cesar Chávez, served as deputy campaign manager for Biden's 2020 campaign.

Quentin Fulks, a Democratic strategist who recently served as campaign manger for Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock's 2022 campaign, will serve as deputy campaign manager.

Why is Biden announcing now?

Biden’s announcement sets the stage for a possible rematch with Trump, whom he defeated in 2020. Trump has received a string of Republican congressional endorsements in recent days including Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Though Biden already has made his intentions known, he has been in no hurry to formally announce his plans. Incumbents tend to hold off their reelection announcements as long as possible. Biden has felt no need to speed up his announcement since no viable Democrat challengers have emerged so far.

Besides the symmetry with his 2020 run, Biden’s decision to the launch the campaign now is largely driven by a desire to start fundraising: His last campaign raised more than $1 billion, and he’ll need to marshal even more this time around. The move will also allow his campaign to begin airing television ads.

More:Biden steers clear of talking about possible Trump indictment ahead of 2024 campaign

What do the polls say?

Biden enters the 2024 race with polls showing that voters are less than enthusiastic about the prospects of either him or Trump returning to the White House.

Only half of Democrats, or 47%, said in a poll released last week that Biden should run again in 2024. The good news: 81% said they’d probably vote for him in the general election if he’s the nominee, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released late last week.

Trump, 76, fared only slightly better: 44% of Republicans said they don’t want him to run for reelection.

A separate USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll released Sunday found that Biden’s standing among those who backed him in 2020 is wide but shallow. While 85% of his 2020 supporters approve of the job he’s doing as president, 43% reported being less excited about supporting him next time.

More:As Biden prepares 2024 reelection run, Democrats worry blue-collar voters are slipping away

Who are the other Democrats running?

While Democrats may not be overly enthusiastic about another Biden campaign, no serious challenger has stepped forward.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known mostly as the champion of a debunked conspiracy theory blaming childhood vaccines for autism, announced last week that he’s running.

Kennedy enters the race with the supports with the support of 14% of voters who backed Biden in 2020, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds.

The findings underscore Biden's potential vulnerability to a more mainstream challenger for the Democratic nomination, although none has emerged so far, or to a third-party candidate in the general election.

Self-help author Marianne Williamson, a quixotic candidate for the nomination in 2020, also plans another longshot bid in 2024.

Michael Collins and Joey Garrison cover the White House. Follow Collins on Twitter @mcollinsNEWS and Garrison @joeygarrison.

Contributing: Susan Page, Rachel Looker, Francesca Chambers and The Associated Press.

More:President Biden leads charge to protect LGBTQ rights as GOP legislates culture wars ahead of 2024

How the midterms changed the 2024 primaries for Biden and Trump

CNN —

Much of the conversation in the leadup to the midterms revolved around how Republicans were clamoring for former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, while Democrats wanted President Joe Biden to stay away. A little over a month after the election, however, the picture looks quite different.

Biden is in his best position in a while to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024. Trump, on the other hand, finds his position among Republicans not only weakened by the midterm results, but he actually trails in a number of polls to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a potential GOP primary.

Perhaps the best indication of Biden’s strength is that he has no obvious potential 2024 primary opponent at this point. Now, as an incumbent, he was unlikely to ever have a slew of challengers. You could have imagined, though, that at least one major Democrat would have challenged Biden had the Democrats done poorly in the midterms.

Instead, the opposite has happened. Major potential foes such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom have said explicitly that they will not run against Biden. Almost every power player in the Democratic Party has said they will back Biden, if he decides to run again.

The same cannot be said for Trump. Even after he declared his run for the presidency last month, just one senator has endorsed his bid for another term. Potential Republican challengers are not bowing out of the 2024 primary.

A big reason for this is that Trump’s poll numbers look weak. I’m not just talking about his polling against other Republicans. I’m talking about how Republican voters see him.

One of Trump’s biggest attributes has been that he has convinced his supporters that he is a winner. Three years ago, polls showed about 80% of Republicans believed he was the party’s best chance to beat the Democratic nominee for president. As recently as late 2021, a plurality of Republicans did so.

A Marist College poll taken after the midterms found that percentage had dropped to 35%, while the percentage of Republicans who thought Trump would not be the strongest candidate jumped to 54%. There can be little doubt that’s at least partially a response to Trump-backed candidates doing poorly in swing states during the midterms.

Base popularity

But it’s not just that fewer Republicans now think that Trump is their best bet in a general election. They’re also less inclined to say they like him. His favorable rating among Republicans in a Quinnipiac University poll in October 2021 stood at 86%. The same poll this month had Trump’s favorable rating at 71% among Republicans.

Our CNN/SSRS poll out earlier this month found DeSantis with a higher favorable rating than Trump among Republicans, which indicates that the former president is no longer the most liked candidate within his party

This marks another big difference between Biden and Trump: Biden’s trendline for popularity among his base is going in the right direction, and he’s the most popular politician within the Democratic Party. The aforementioned CNN poll put Biden’s favorable rating well into the 80s and well ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris and Newsom among Democrats.

Biden’s job approval rating with Democrats came in at 86% in the Quinnipiac poll. That’s a jump from 79% in Quinnipiac’s poll taken before the election. Indeed, nearly every major poll has Biden’s approval rating above 80% among Democrats. That’s important because every example of a president facing a major intraparty challenge when running for reelection has come when his approval rating was lower than 70% within his own party.

Primary choices

I should note that there are polls (such as the CNN survey) that show more Democrats than not want someone other than Biden to be their the Democratic nominee.

Even here, though, Biden’s got two bits of positive news. First, his numbers, unlike Trump’s, are on the upswing. Second, the vast majority of Democrats could not name a specific candidate besides Biden whom they would want as their nominee.

The rare 2024 polls that match Biden against other named Democrats (such as Harris, who is very unlikely to run against him) put him up by north of 15 points. For comparison, Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton by 15 points in a late-2010 poll of a hypothetical 2012 Democratic primary. Jimmy Carter was trailing Ted Kennedy in late 1978 polling of a hypothetical 1980 primary.

Given the polls, it’s not too surprising that Biden, like Obama and unlike Carter, doesn’t seem to have any powerful Democrat willing to challenge him for his party’s nomination.

Trump’s numbers against other Republicans are far weaker and, again, heading in the wrong direction. When you put Trump against DeSantis and other named candidates, Trump’s onetime 40-point advantage has been slimmed to low double-digits over DeSantis.

Other polling suggests that these findings may understate Trump’s weakness. There isn’t a single poll of a two-way matchup between Trump and DeSantis (that meets CNN’s standards for publication) that has Trump ahead. Marquette University Law School’s poll had Trump down 20 points to the Florida governor a few weeks ago.

Perhaps most interestingly, a Monmouth University poll released on Friday asked Republicans in an open-ended question (i.e., the poll didn’t name any candidates) who they wanted to be their 2024 nominee. Only 26% of respondents picked Trump. He trailed DeSantis, who came in at 39%.

This indicates that Trump’s biggest strength at this point among Republicans is name recognition – something other Republicans will get a lot more of as the primary season heats up.

Biden probably won’t need to worry much about Democrat challengers getting too much oxygen for a simple reason: Nobody who can truly threaten him for the 2024 nomination looks like they’re going to run at this point.

Here's what's in the $1.7 trillion federal omnibus spending law | CNN ...

Editor’s Note: This story originally ran December 20. It has been updated to reflect the current status of the legislation.

CNN —

President Joe Biden signed into law a $1.7 trillion yearlong federal government spending package on Thursday, after the House and Senate passed it last week.

The legislation includes $772.5 billion for nondefense discretionary programs and $858 billion in defense funding. That represents an increase in spending in both areas for fiscal year 2023.

The sweeping package includes roughly $45 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine and NATO allies, an overhaul of the electoral vote-counting law, protections for pregnant workers, an enhancement to retirement savings rules and a TikTok ban on federal devices.

It also provides a boost in spending for disaster aid, college access, child care, mental health and food assistance, more support for the military and veterans and additional funds for the US Capitol Police. And the legislation contains several major Medicaid provisions, particularly one that could disenroll up to 19 million people from the nation’s health insurance program for low-income Americans.

However, the law, which runs more than 4,000 pages, left out several measures that some lawmakers had fought to include. An expansion of the child tax credit, as well as multiple other corporate and individual tax breaks, did not make it into the final bill. Neither did legislation to allow cannabis companies to bank their cash reserves – known as the Safe Banking Act – or a bill to help Afghan evacuees in the US gain lawful permanent residency. And the spending package did not include a White House request for roughly $10 billion in additional funding for Covid-19 response.

The spending law, which will keep the government operating through September, the end of the fiscal year, is the product of lengthy negotiations between top congressional Democrats and Republicans.

Congress originally passed a continuing resolution on September 30 to temporarily fund the government in fiscal year 2023, which began October 1.

Here’s what’s in the law:

More aid for Ukraine: The spending law provides roughly $45 billion to help support Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself against Russia’s attack.

About $9 billion of the funding will go to Ukraine’s military to pay for a variety of things including training, weapons, logistics support and salaries. Nearly $12 billion will be used to replenish US stocks of equipment sent to Ukraine through presidential drawdown authority.

Also, the law provides $13 billion for economic support to the Ukrainian government. Other funds address humanitarian and infrastructure needs, as well as support European Command operations.

Emergency disaster assistance: The law provides more than $38 billion in emergency funding to help Americans in the west and southeast affected by recent natural disasters, including tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. It will aid farmers, provide economic development assistance for communities, repair and reconstruct federal facilities and direct money to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Disaster Relief Fund, among other initiatives.

Overhaul of the electoral vote-counting law: A provision in the legislation aims at making it harder to overturn a certified presidential election, the first legislative response to the US Capitol insurrection and then-President Donald Trump’s campaign to stay in power despite his loss in 2020.

The changes overhaul the 1887 Electoral Count Act, which Trump tried to use to overturn the 2020 election.

The legislation clarifies the vice president’s role while overseeing the certification of the electoral result to be completely ceremonial. It also creates a set of stipulations designed to make it harder for there to be any confusion over the accurate slate of electors from each state.

Funding for January 6 attack prosecutions: The law provides $2.6 billion for US Attorneys, which includes funding efforts “to further support prosecutions related to the January 6 attack on the Capitol and domestic terrorism cases,” according to a fact sheet from the House Appropriations Committee.

The package also gives $11.3 billion to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, including for efforts to investigate extremist violence and domestic terrorism.

The funding measures are part of nearly $39 billion for the Justice Department.

Retirement savings enhancements: The law contains new retirement rules that could make it easier for Americans to accumulate retirement savings – and less costly to withdraw them. Among other things, the provisions will allow penalty-free withdrawals for some emergency expenses, let employers offer matching retirement contributions for a worker’s student loan payments and increase how much older workers may save in employer retirement plans.

TikTok ban from federal devices: The legislation bans TikTok, the Chinese-owned short-form video app, from federal government devices.

Some lawmakers have raised bipartisan concerns that China’s national security laws could force TikTok – or its parent, ByteDance – to hand over the personal data of its US users. Recently, a wave of states led by Republican governors have introduced state-level restrictions on the use of TikTok on government-owned devices.

Protections for pregnant workers: The law provides pregnant workers with workplace accommodations – such as additional bathroom breaks, stools or relief from heavy lifting duties – needed for healthy pregnancies. It will prevent them from being forced to take leave or losing their jobs, as well as bar employers from denying employment opportunities to women based on their need for reasonable accommodations due to childbirth or related medical conditions. Also, another provision in the package guarantees workplace accommodations – particularly time to pump – for more nursing workers.

Changes to Medicaid and other health care programs: The law phases out the requirement that prevented states from disenrolling Medicaid recipients as long as the national public health emergency was in effect in exchange for an enhanced federal match. This continuous coverage measure was enacted as part of a Covid-19 relief package passed in March 2020 and has led to a record 90 million Medicaid enrollees, many of whom may no longer meet the income requirements to qualify.

Under the law, states will be able to start evaluating Medicaid enrollees’ eligibility and terminating their coverage as of April 1. The redetermination process will take place over at least 12 months. Also, the enhanced federal Medicaid funding will phase down through December 31, 2023, though the states will have to meet certain conditions during that period.

Up to 19 million people could lose their Medicaid benefits, according to estimates, though many would be eligible for other coverage.

Also, under a provision in the law, Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, known as CHIP, will offer 12 months of continuous coverage for children. This will allow the 40 million children on Medicaid and CHIP to have uninterrupted access to health care throughout the year.

In addition, the law makes permanent the option for states to offer 12 months of postpartum coverage for low-income mothers through Medicaid, rather than just 60 days. More than two dozen states, plus the District of Columbia, have implemented the measure, which was available on a temporary basis through the American Rescue Plan, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Another seven states are planning to implement the option.

Plus, the package provides more money for the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response. The funds are intended to speed the development of new therapies, diagnostics and preventive measures, beef up public health activities and strengthen the nation’s biosecurity by accelerating development of medical countermeasures for pandemic threats and fortifying stockpiles and supply chains for drugs, masks and other supplies.

Increased support for the military and veterans: The package funds a 4.6% pay raise for troops and a 22.4% increase in support for Veteran Administration medical care, which provides health services for 7.3 million veterans.

It includes nearly $53 billion to address higher inflation and $2.7 billion – a 25% increase – to support critical services and housing assistance for veterans and their families.

The law also allocates $5 billion for the Cost of War Toxic Exposures Fund, which provides additional funding to implement the landmark PACT Act that expands eligibility for health care services and benefits to veterans with conditions related to toxic exposure during their service.

Beefing up nutrition assistance: The legislation establishes a permanent nationwide Summer EBT program, starting in the summer of 2024, according to Share Our Strength, an anti-hunger advocacy group. It will provide families whose children are eligible for free or reduced-price school meals with a $40 grocery benefit per child per month, indexed to inflation.

It also changes the rules governing summer meals programs in rural areas. Children will be able to take home or receive delivery of up to 10 days’ worth of meals, rather than have to consume the food at a specific site and time.

The law also helps families who have had their food stamp benefits stolen since October 1 through what’s known as “SNAP skimming.” It provides them with retroactive federal reimbursement of the funds, which criminals steal by attaching devices to point-of-sale machines or PIN pads to get card numbers and other information from electronic benefits transfer cards.

Higher maximum Pell grant awards: The law increases the maximum Pell grant award by $500 to $7,395 for the coming school year. This marks the largest boost since the 2009-2010 school year. About 7 million students, many from lower-income families, receive Pell grants every year to help them afford college.

Help to pay utility bills: The package provides $5 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. Combined with the $1 billion contained in the earlier continuing resolution, this is the largest regular appropriation for the program, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. Home heating and cooling costs – and the applications for federal aid in paying the bills – have soared this year.

Additional funding for the US Capitol Police: The law provides an additional $132 million for the Capitol Police for a total of nearly $735 million. It will allow the department to hire up to 137 sworn officers and 123 support and civilian personnel, bringing the force to a projected level of 2,126 sworn officers and 567 civilians.

It also gives $2 million to provide off-campus security for lawmakers in response to evolving and growing threats.

More money for child care: The legislation provides $8 billion for the Child Care and Development Block Grant, a 30% increase in funding. The grant gives financial assistance to low-income families to afford child care.

Also, Head Start will receive nearly $12 billion, an 8.6% boost. The program helps young children from low-income families prepare for school.

More resources for children’s mental health and for substance abuse: The law provides more funds to increase access to mental health services for children and schools. It also will invest more money to address the opioid epidemic and substance use disorder.

Investments in homelessness prevention and affordable housing: The legislation provides $3.6 billion for homeless assistance grants, a 13% increase. It will serve more than 1 million people experiencing homelessness.

The package also funnels nearly $6.4 billion to the Community Development Block Grant formula program and related local economic and community development projects that benefit low- and moderate income areas and people, an increase of almost $1.6 billion.

Plus, it provides $1.5 billion for the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, which will lead to the construction of nearly 10,000 new rental and homebuyer units and maintain the record investment from the last fiscal year.

More support for the environment: The package provides an additional $576 million for the Environmental Protection Agency, bringing its funding up to $10.1 billion. It increases support for enforcement and compliance, as well as clean air, water and toxic chemical programs, after years of flat funding.

It also boosts funding for the National Park Service by 6.4%, restoring 500 of the 3,000 staff positions lost over the past decade. This is intended to help the agency handle substantial increases in visitation.

Plus, the legislation provides an additional 14% in funding for wildland firefighting.

What’s not in the law

Enhanced child tax credit: A coalition of Democratic lawmakers and consumer advocates pushed hard to extend at least one provision of the enhanced child tax credit, which was in effect last year thanks to the Democrats’ $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. Their priority was to make the credit more refundable so more of the lowest-income families can qualify. Nearly 19 million kids won’t receive the full $2,000 benefit this year because their parents earn too little, according to a Tax Policy Center estimate.

New cannabis banking rules: Lawmakers considered including a provision in the spending bill that would make it easier for licensed cannabis businesses to accept credit cards – but it was left out of the legislation. Known as the Safe Banking Act, which previously passed the House, the provision would prohibit federal regulators from taking punitive measures against banks for providing services to legitimate cannabis businesses.

Even though 47 states have legalized some form of marijuana, cannabis remains illegal on the federal level. That means financial institutions providing banking services to cannabis businesses are subject to criminal prosecution – leaving many legal growers and sellers locked out of the banking system.

Covid-19 response: Lawmakers did not include a White House request for an additional $10 billion in funding for Covid-19, which would have been aimed at continued access to and development of vaccines and therapeutics, among other things. Earlier in the year, the Biden administration unsuccessfully pushed for $22.5 billion in extra funds.

FBI headquarters: There was also no final resolution on where the new FBI headquarters will be located, a major point of contention as lawmakers from Maryland – namely House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer – pushed to bring the law enforcement agency into their state. In a deal worked through by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the General Services Administration would be required to conduct “separate and detailed consultations” with Maryland and Virginia representatives about potential sites in each of the states, according to a Senate Democratic aide.

Afghan Adjustment Act: Also not included in the spending bill was the Afghan Adjustment Act, which would have helped Afghan allies who run the risk of deportation from the US. It would have given those evacuees a pathway to lawful permanent residency before their temporary status, known as humanitarian parole, expires in 2023. Many congressional Republicans raised concerns about vetting and other issues, but the legislation’s supporters, including former US military leaders, argued those worries have been addressed.

Legislation to extend and expand Special Immigrant Visas for Afghans who worked with the US during the war there and want to come to America is included in the spending bill.

Tami Luhby Katie Lobosco
Tami Luhby
Katie Lobosco

The whispers of Hillary Clinton 2024 have started | CNN Politics

CNN —

In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court’s monumental decision to overturn Roe v Wade, conservative writer John Ellis took to the internet to make a provocative case: It was time for Hillary Clinton to make a(nother) political comeback.

“Now is her moment,” he wrote. “The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade creates the opening for Hillary Clinton to get out of stealth mode and start down the path toward declaring her candidacy for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.”

Ellis’ argument is centered on the ideas that 1) President Joe Biden, who will be 82 shortly after the 2024 election, is simply too old to run again (Ellis is far from the only person making that case) and 2) The Democratic bench is not terribly strong

He’s not the only person eyeing a Clinton re-emergence.

Writing in The Hill newspaper, Democratic pundit Juan Williams makes the case that Clinton should become a major figure on the campaign trail this year.

“Clinton is exactly the right person to put steel in the Democrats’ spine and bring attention to the reality that ‘ultra-MAGA’ Republicans, as President Biden calls them, are tearing apart the nation,” Williams writes, adding: “Keep talking and talk louder, Hillary!”

So, just how far-fetched is a Clinton candidacy?

Well, start here: That a conservative writer is leading the charge – at least at the moment – for another presidential bid by Clinton should be looked at with some healthy skepticism. No candidate unites the Republican party – even with Donald Trump as the GOP’s likely nominee – like Clinton does. So, this may be a bit of wishful thinking by Ellis. Keep that in mind.

Then go to this: Biden is giving every indication that, even at his advance age, he is planning to run again. The New York Times posted a piece Monday night headlined “Biden Irked by Democrats Who Won’t Take ‘Yes’ for an Answer on 2024” that included these lines:

“Facing intensifying skepticism about his capacity to run for re-election when he will be nearly 82, the president and his top aides have been stung by the questions about his plans, irritated at what they see as a lack of respect from their party and the press, and determined to tamp down suggestions that he’s effectively a lame duck a year and a half into his administration.”

And finish here: Clinton has been pretty close to Shermanesque in her denials about even considering another bid.

“No, out of the question,” Clinton said of another presidential candidacy in an interview with the Financial Times earlier this month. “First of all, I expect Biden to run. He certainly intends to run. It would be very disruptive to challenge that.”

In an interview with CBS Tuesday morning, Clinton said she couldn’t “imagine” running again. Host Gayle King rightly noted that Clinton’s answer wasn’t a definitive “no.”

So, if you are a betting person – and, of course, there are odds on Hillary running – the smart gamble is that Clinton doesn’t run again.

With all of that said, we know that circumstances change. And that changed circumstances can lead to changed minds.

While I find it utterly implausible that Clinton would run against Biden in a primary in 2024, I also think that an open nomination – if Biden takes a pass on running – would be something that would be hard for Clinton to not at least look at. That’s not to say she would run. It’s only to say that her name would get bandied about if the seat was open. That’s a lock.

Then there’s the Roe decision to consider. Clinton’s comments about not running again came before Roe was decided. As someone who has fought for women’s rights throughout her career as first lady, US senator and secretary of state, might the Supreme Court’s ruling have changed her calculus somewhat as she looks to her own future?

Again, the chances are very slim that Clinton runs again. But they aren’t zero.