With competing Florida rallies Sunday, Trump and DeSantis preview ...

CNN —

In a preview of a potential Republican presidential primary showdown, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis will hold dueling Florida rallies on Sunday as the two men battle for supremacy of the Sunshine State and the heart of the GOP.

The former president will welcome supporters in Miami, the third stop in a four-city tour that has effectively made Trump a leading player in his party’s fight for control of Congress. Meanwhile, the Florida governor is headlining his own events in three counties on the state’s opposite coast – Hillsborough, Sarasota and Lee – steering far clear of Trump as he seeks to close out his bid for a second term.

For the past two years, Trump and DeSantis have coexisted on opposite ends of Florida – Trump plotting his next move from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach and DeSantis building himself into a household name from the state capital in Tallahassee. But as these midterms come to a close and with a decision looming about their political futures, even on a peninsula 450 miles long, it has become increasingly difficult for the two to avoid each other.

“We have two very stubborn, very type-A politicians in Florida that are at the tip of the spear for the GOP,” said one Republican official who asked not to be named. “They both command attention but they both have their own political operations and that’s what you’re seeing. It’s already exhausting to talk about.”

The long simmering rivalry has spilled into public view during the final weeks leading into Election Day. At a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday, Trump took a direct swipe at DeSantis, and christened a new nickname for the governor, while declaring himself the front-runner in a hypothetical GOP primary.

“There it is, Trump at 71 (percent), Ron DeSanctimonious at 10 percent,” Trump told the crowd as he read alleged poll numbers off a screen.

DeSantis recently endorsed Republican businessman and Colorado Senate candidate Joe O’Dea, as O’Dea vowed in October to “actively campaign” against Trump.

“A BIG MISTAKE!” Trump wrote in response on his Truth Social platform.

Trump followed up by sharing a clip of former Fox News host Megyn Kelly predicting GOP voters would remain firmly in Trump’s camp if DeSantis decided to challenge the former president in a Republican presidential primary. CNN reported Friday that Trump could launch his next presidential bid as soon as this month.

Video Ad Feedback What Trump told Haberman about potential rival for 2024 GOP nomination 02:51 - Source: CNN

But planning competing events inside Florida two days before a momentous Election Day is especially illustrative of how fraught the relationship between the former allies has become. Unlike other potential 2024 contenders, DeSantis has not declined to run against Trump in a primary, much to Trump’s ire. DeSantis, meanwhile, believes such a concession would undermine his attempts to keep the focus on his current reelection race instead of what may lie ahead, CNN previously reported. DeSantis and his campaign have declined to publicly discuss his plans for after the midterm, but in a recent debate, he wouldn’t respond when asked if he intends to serve a four-year term if reelected.

In the first of his three events on Sunday, DeSantis made no mention of Trump or the “Ron DeSanctimonious” nickname, choosing instead to criticize President Joe Biden and the so-called “woke” left.

DeSantis described himself as a fighter who stood up against medical experts and criticism during the pandemic to reopen the state and ban coronavirus vaccine mandates, echoing a sentiment in a campaign ad in which DeSantis suggests he was created by God to fight for Florida.

The biggest cheers the Florida governor received, however, came when he recounted how he arranged for Florida to send nearly 50 migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, a stunt that has faced intense scrutiny and legal challenges.

If they do go head-to-head in a primary, the two candidates may find themselves on similar financial footing. DeSantis has raised $200 million this campaign cycle through his two political committees and has spent just over half, leaving about $90 million in potential seed money for a Super PAC. At the end of October, Trump was sitting on about $117 million between his three active fundraising vehicles, according to federal election data.

Trump’s pre-election travel is motivated at least in part by his desire to launch a third campaign for the White House, CNN reported this week. Indeed, during a visit to Iowa on Thursday, Trump told voters in the first-in-the-nation caucus state to “get ready” for his return as a presidential candidate. Trump stopped in Pennsylvania on Saturday – home to the tight Senate race between his endorsee, Republican Mehmet Oz, and Democrat John Fetterman – and he’ll spend election eve in Ohio, where the former president endorsed Republican J.D. Vance in the Senate race against Democrat Tim Ryan.

But planning a Florida rally was also widely seen as a shot across the bow at DeSantis. Trump first announced last week his intent to hold a rally for US Sen. Marco Rubio in South Florida, leaving DeSantis noticeably out of his plans. Since then, the roster of guest speakers has grown to include the state’s junior senator, Rick Scott, as well as a dozen other elected officials and candidates from around the state.

The decision to hold the rally in Miami-Dade County comes as Republicans are optimistic they will carry the one-time Democratic stronghold for the first time in two decades. Investments by Republicans to make inroads in the area’s Hispanic neighborhoods have paid off in recent elections, and the party is seeing a wave of enthusiasm that is turning the state a deeper shade of red. Republicans will hold an advantage in voter registration on Election Day for the first time in Florida’s modern political history.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in support of the campaign of GOP Sen. Marco Rubio at the Miami-Dade County Fair and Exposition on Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, in Miami. Rebecca Blackwell/AP

Ahead of his arrival, Trump was already taking credit for that turnaround.

“President Trump delivered a historic red wave in Florida in the 2018 midterms with his slate of endorsed candidates up and down the ballot and molded the Sunshine State into the MAGA stronghold it is today,” the announcement from Trump’s Save America PAC said. “Thanks to President Trump, Florida is no longer a purple state; it’s an America First Red State.”

While DeSantis embarked on his own out-of-state campaign circuit for Republican candidates, including a recent rally in New York for GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin, he is spending the final days of the race against Democrat Charlie Crist barnstorming across Florida. His campaign had 13 scheduled events between Friday and Monday. On the final day, DeSantis has a stop planned in Trump’s adopted home county of Palm Beach and in Miami-Dade not far from Trump’s Sunday event.

On the campaign trail, DeSantis doesn’t talk about Trump, but his remarks are peppered with frequent mentions of President Joe Biden in a preview of what a presidential campaign against the incumbent Democrat might look like.

At an event Thursday in Central Florida, DeSantis called Biden “King Midas in reverse.”

“Biden touches it and turns into something much worse than (gold),” DeSantis said. “It’s frustrating and a lot of people, the vast majority of Americans, they think that the country has seen its best days. They think that we’re clearly on the wrong track. But you know, I think Florida provides the blueprint that other states can follow.”

This story has been updated with additional information Sunday.

Trump is on the defense as he prepares for expected 2024 ...

CNN —

Should Donald Trump announce his third presidential bid on Tuesday, as is widely expected, he will begin the next phase of his political career under siege.

Seven years ago, the New York businessman entered the political fray on defense, working vigorously to cast himself as a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination to the incredulity of veteran political operatives and his primary opponents. This time, Trump takes the plunge as the party’s indisputable frontrunner, but once again, he finds himself in a defensive crouch.

On the brink of a campaign launch that elicits both enthusiasm and dread from different corners of his own party, Trump’s quest to return to the Oval Office could face untold obstacles in the months to come, even with his loyal base firmly intact. He has spent the days since the midterm elections fending off criticism from fellow Republicans over his ill-fated involvement in key contests, furiously lashing out at two GOP heavyweights who could complicate his path to the White House if they mount their own presidential campaigns, and fretting that he or associates could soon be indicted by federal investigators in two separate Justice Department probes.

Aides say Trump is hoping his early entry into the 2024 presidential primary will reframe the conversation away from Republican failures and inject a fresh dose of enthusiasm into a demoralized party amid GOP failures to capture Senate control and win a sizable House majority. Though the former president has been touting his 200-plus victories on Election Night, many of the Trump-endorsed Republicans who prevailed last Tuesday ran uncontested or were widely expected to win their contests, while several Senate candidates he endorsed in highly prized races failed to dethrone their Democratic opponents or flip open seats into the GOP’s column.

Mehmet Oz, Adam Laxalt and Blake Masters, three Republican Senate candidates who earned Trump’s support in their primaries, respectively lost to Democratic opponents in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona. Meanwhile, Herschel Walker, a longtime Trump friend challenging Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, is headed to a December runoff after both failed to reach 50% support in Georgia.

On Saturday, CNN projected that Democrats will retain control of the Senate in the 118th Congress, an outcome that has fractured Republicans and left the party on tenterhooks as Trump readies his “big announcement.”

Next targets

Trump, who in the immediate aftermath of the midterms conceded that his party had suffered a “somewhat disappointing” outcome, has already moved on, settings his sights on winning a second term in Washington and attacking two GOP governors who could challenge his status as the party’s anchor in the months to come, Ron DeSantis of Florida and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.

“I Endorsed him, did a very big Trump Rally for him telephonically, got MAGA to Vote for him – or he couldn’t have come close to winning,” Trump said of Youngkin in a Truth Social post last week.

Three sources familiar with the matter said the former president believed Youngkin was supportive of comments his lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, made during a Fox Business appearance last week. She told the network she would not support Trump if he runs for president a third time.

Responding to repeated questions about Trump’s impending 2024 announcement, Earle-Sears said, “A true leader understands when they have become a liability. A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage, and the voters have given us that very clear message.”

Sears later declined to tell The Washington Post whether Youngkin knew prior to the interview that she planned to split from Trump, a detail that caught the former president’s attention, according to one of his aides.

“If Glenn Youngkin decides to run for president, that’s his choice. But Team Trump will certainly mount a massive effort to win the Virginia delegates going to Milwaukee that is going to embarrass Youngkin,” said John Fredericks, a Virginia-based conservative radio host who chaired Trump’s campaigns in the state in 2016 and 2020.

The former president’s criticism of Youngkin, whose 2021 gubernatorial bid he endorsed against former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe, came on the heels of a spate of insults Trump launched against DeSantis, the popular Florida governor who has refused to rule out a 2024 campaign against the former president and increasingly appears to be laying the groundwork for one. In the span of one week, Trump went from introducing a disparaging new nickname for the Florida governor (“DeSanctimonious”) to heeding requests from Republicans to pare back his criticism of DeSantis in the home stretch before Election Day, to blasting out a scathing statement on the heels of DeSantis’ reelection, calling him “an average Republican governor.”

DeSantis allies said they do not expect the Florida governor to engage at all with Trump’s bashing for as long as he can avoid it. In two press conferences related to Hurricane Nicole that DeSantis held after winning reelection by a 19-point margin, he did not mention the overall midterm results or take any questions. Notably, he has also avoided taking a victory lap on Fox News, which would undoubtedly inquire about Trump and 2024, after appearing frequently on the network while campaigning for reelection.

“Trump rants for a couple of months. DeSantis throws some red meat during [Florida’s next legislative session] and then we have a primary around May,” said one DeSantis ally, describing his current posture

Asked how long the governor can go without acknowledging Trump’s attacks, a second DeSantis ally responded simply, “A long time.”

Trump’s bitter criticism of Youngkin and DeSantis, two rising Republican celebrities, was a stark reminder of the scathing brand of politics he brings to the campaign trail, without regard for how it might impact his own party. His first use of “DeSanctimonious” came just days before the Florida governor appeared on the ballot in his bid for reelection. And much to the chagrin of top Republicans, including some of Trump’s closest allies on Capitol Hill, his Tuesday announcement comes as the party looks to prevent Senate Democrats from securing a 51-seat majority through the Georgia runoff.

“I know there’s a lot of criticism and people saying, ‘Just focus on Georgia,’ but he figures there’s no point in waiting. If Herschel loses, he’ll be blamed for distracting from the runoff but if he wins, he doesn’t believe he will get any credit for energizing the base,” said a current Trump adviser.

Some of Trump’s closest allies said Republicans should brace for a significant escalation in his attacks on rumored GOP challengers once he is a declared presidential contender, meaning he could ramp up his criticism of DeSantis, Youngkin or others while the party is fighting for Walker’s survival in Georgia.

“Nobody should be surprised. This is how Trump does primaries,” said Michael Caputo, a former Trump administration official who remains close to the former president. “The question you have to ask is whether this format can work for him again.”

Of course, Trump has not been in a hotly contested primary since 2016, when he unleashed broadsides against more than a dozen-plus opponents with fury and vitriol that shocked some Republican observers but delighted a segment of the Republican primary electorate that would later evolve into his loyal base. Few Trump allies expect him to behave any differently in the months to come. Even if he remains the only declared candidate until others enter the fray next year, he will continue his preemptive blitz against perceived challengers.

“Donald Trump will make sure every Republican candidate is well-vetted,” said a senior Trump aide.

“No one’s going to get a free pass. It’s going to be brutal,” added the Trump adviser.

Other obstacles

The likelihood that Trump will face primary challengers may be the least of his concerns at this juncture.

While the former president maintains significant support from grassroots Republicans, some of the party’s largest donors have been meeting with other potential presidential hopefuls and signaling they may be interested in bankrolling alternative candidates. It’s a concern Trump allies are confronting head on as they privately explore ways to make the monstrous pile of cash he has raised since leaving office available to him as a presidential candidate. Billionaire Ken Griffin, who gave nearly $60 million to federal Republican candidates and campaigns in the 2022 cycle, told Politico in an interview last week that he would support DeSantis if the Florida governor tosses his hat into the ring for the 2024 GOP nod. Two other Republican donors who gave to Trump in 2016 and 2020 and requested anonymity for fear of retribution told CNN that they, too, were waiting to see what DeSantis decides to do, while one of them said they would also be willing to support former Vice President Mike Pence should he challenge his former boss.

“One of our biggest challenges will be the fundraising component but I do think [Trump] has proved that he doesn’t need deep-pocketed donors, per se,” said a person close to Trump, noting the enduring strength of his small-dollar operation.

Trump will also have to convince Republicans that he would be an asset at the top of the ballot in 2024 as opposed to an albatross for vulnerable candidates in tight races. That task comes amid a fraught intraparty debate over the GOP’s bruising midterm outcome, with some Republicans claiming Trump’s involvement – including an eleventh-hour 2024 campaign tease at a rally on the eve of Election Day – did more to hurt the party than help. Others have blamed party leaders for failing to articulate clear policy priorities, pointed to the party’s money gap against Democrats in key races, or lamented the bickering that unfolded all cycle between two of the party’s biggest campaign committees led by Florida Sen. Rick Scott and allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Some Trump allies said the donor challenges, midterm outcome and questions about his stature has left a dearth of seasoned campaign operatives willing to join his next campaign. Though the president has told allies he wants to keep his operation lean, much like his 2016 presidential campaign, some have privately questioned whether it’s out of preference or due to recruitment troubles. CNN has previously reported that Trump’s likely campaign is expected to be helmed by three current advisers – Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita and Brian Jack – with assistance from a group of additional aides and advisers with whom the former president is already familiar. Overall, his 2024 apparatus is expected to dwarf in comparison to his reelection campaign two years ago, multiple sources said.

Either way, as Trump works to find his footing on the verge of a presidential campaign that could coast to the party’s nominating convention or encounter any number of unforeseen troubles, allies who have stuck by his side said they are ready for battle one last time.

“Our team is accustomed to fighting tooth and nail. Team Trump is going to fight for the nomination,” said Fredericks.

Trump sets off GOP identity crisis heading into 2024 | CNN Politics

CNN —

The Republican Party is plunging into an identity crisis after its November red wave dissolved. And while almost everyone with power and influence in the GOP agrees it’s a mess, no one can agree on how to fix it. Or whether Donald Trump should be involved.

Video Ad Feedback Kaitlan Collins describes what people in Trump's orbit texted her during announcement 02:00 - Source: CNN

Although there was something for the party to cheer on Wednesday with the GOP winning a narrow majority in the House, the combined shockwaves of broader midterm elections disappointment and the ex-president’s leap into the 2024 presidential race Tuesday are causing angst and internal recriminations about the way forward.

And the smaller-than-expected House majority – after losing the Senate – has only invigorated debate over how the GOP can regain other centers of power and whether Trump’s influence could doom it to electoral underperformance again.

The already stirring 2024 Republican presidential race, and the rising prospects of candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, are also stoking the GOP leadership speculation. With the party looking for the next big thing, there may be an opening for a new candidate with the charisma and vision to redefine its direction.

Another potential GOP primary candidate, former Vice President Mike Pence, said in a CNN town hall on Wednesday that Americans were looking for “new leadership – leadership that will unite our country around our highest ideals, leadership that will reflect the civility and respect that most Americans have for each other.” Pence’s leadership checklist appeared to rule out Trump, as he called for candidates who would look to the future.

Video Ad Feedback Watch Pence's response when asked if he'll support Trump in 2024 03:30 - Source: CNN

“I think we’ll have better choices than my old running mate,” Pence told CNN’s Jake Tapper.

Leadership fights in both chambers of Congress are, meanwhile, exposing deep disunity about how to win back independent and swing voters who have often been scared away by Trump’s extremism. Many lawmakers blame Trump for his fixation on the 2020 election and his lies that he was cheated out of power for their failure to win back the Senate.

But some maintain that the party isn’t Trumpy enough. The ex-president’s allies, for instance, failed in an attempt to oust veteran Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell – a longtime Trump antagonist – on Wednesday. But if House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy wants to be the next speaker, he cannot afford to alienate Trump’s acolytes who will wield huge power in the new House, meaning that one half of Capitol Hill at least will dance to the ex-president’s tune.

Video Ad Feedback See how a Rupert Murdoch-owned newspaper covered Trump's announcement 04:16 - Source: CNN

Away from Congress there are possible signs of a political realignment as some big outside donors break cover and demand the party leave Trump behind. And conservative kingmaker Rupert Murdoch also seems to be putting his finger on the scale, as his New York Post steps up its mockery of the former president. The tabloid carried a strap line across the bottom of its front page Wednesday trolling his 2024 launch party reading: “Florida Man Makes Announcement.”

The level of criticism, and even ridicule, of Trump after his event at Mar-a-Lago lacked the energy of 2016 was unusual and striking and could herald a broader change in attitude toward the two-time Republican nominee.

But in some ways, we’ve seen all this before. Several times, including after the US Capitol insurrection in 2021, the party has looked set to walk away, before testing the wind on Trump’s dominance of its base and appeasing him yet again.

However, Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and CNN political analyst, said Trump’s subdued 2024 launch on Tuesday didn’t scare rivals off and noted it was beginning to dawn on many party members that the ex-president was a liability.

“A lot of folks are looking for something new, or at least a minimum, they are not quite sure they want to do Donald Trump a third time,” Jennings told CNN’s Erin Burnett.

Trump changed his party – but does it still need him?

The fresh infighting represents the latest struggle for the soul of the GOP, which predates Trump’s arrival, between radical grassroots activists and deeply conservative but more establishment forces. The party is now more populist, working class and performative, thanks to Trump’s shattering of its internationalist, corporate legacy.

But the internal estrangement that cost it power in successive elections is intensifying because of Trump’s return to the spotlight and the impact his 2021 attempt to destroy democracy seems to have had on the midterms.

For years, the equation in the GOP has been simple. Many top Washington office holders would be delighted to sever ties with Trump, whom they regard as unfit for office. But his mystical bond with the party’s voters meant that any politician who wanted a future in the GOP had to genuflect before him.

There are some reasons to suspect this could change, not least because of the rise in the party of hardline new hopefuls like DeSantis.

In the old GOP, grassroots voters who wanted a tough line on immigration, attacks on the press, disdain for experts and scientists and culture war policies could only find them in Trump. But now potential presidential candidates and lawmakers operate according to his playbook. It’s possible to have Trumpism without Trump himself and the political liabilities and chaos that he brings.

Time will tell whether this new reality begins to weaken Trump’s power in the base.

Big money searches for a new candidate

There is no clear evidence yet that Trump’s vaunted base is splintering. But some big GOP donors are already voting with their wallets.

On Wednesday, for instance, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, a one-time Trump booster, distanced himself and his formidable fundraising muscle from the former president over his 2020 election-denial obsession.

“America does better when its leaders are rooted in today and tomorrow, not today and yesterday,” Schwarzman said in a statement sent to CNN. “It is time for the Republican party to turn to a new generation of leaders and I intend to support one of them in the presidential primaries.” The defection was first reported by Axios.

Another GOP megadonor, Citadel’s Ken Griffin, recently indicated he would side with DeSantis, a former Trump protégé – if he runs in 2024. The Club for Growth, an influential conservative group, which was once supportive of Trump, also seems to be moving on, and is touting its polls showing DeSantis leading the former president in key states.

The drumbeat of the GOP’s big money donors turning on Trump is sharpening the showdown among party grandees about party philosophy.

“President Trump has lost three in a row and if we want to start winning, we need a new leader,” said Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a one-time primary rival and Trump friend, got a standing ovation at this week’s Republican Governors Association summit when he put the GOP’s disappointing midterms performance down to Trump.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a possible 2024 Republican candidate, also seemed to criticize Trump in a tweet. “We need more seriousness, less noise,” Pompeo wrote, dismissing Republicans who are “staring into the rear view mirror claiming victimhood.”

Leadership acrimony in the Senate

The schism over Trump drove the most serious challenge to McConnell’s Republican leadership in the Senate in 15 years. The Kentucky senator was reelected easily by his conference on Wednesday but had to endure unprecedented criticism of his stewardship following an attempt by Florida Sen. Rick Scott to take his job.

Supporters of Scott, who ran despite heavy criticism of his management of the GOP’s Senate campaign arm in the midterms, framed their critiques of McConnell in Trumpian tones.

“I ran for Senate because we need OUTSIDERS to take on the D.C. swamp and get RESULTS,” Indiana Sen. Mike Braun said in a statement. “Hoosier conservative Republicans are sick and tired of the status quo. I’m proud to support my friend and fellow conservative outsider Rick Scott for our Leader.”

Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, a possible future Republican presidential candidate who had said he would not back McConnell for leader, has spent recent days slamming his party for its failure to win popular vote majorities and declaring that the midterms were its “funeral.”

At times, he appeared to be hinting at criticism of Trump, though in his comments on Wednesday, he went after the Kentucky Republican and confirmed he voted for Scott.

“I think Senator McConnell’s view is that Trump is largely to blame, and that Republicans have an image problem because of Trump. I have to say that I don’t agree with that,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju.

McConnell’s allies, however, point out that in many cases, the candidates that he backed in the midterm elections generally outperformed the election-denying, extremists and neophytes that Trump thrust upon his party. Conservative Republicans who proved to be competent mangers and steered away from 2020 conspiracies – like Govs. Mike DeWine of Ohio and Brian Kemp of Georgia – far outpaced their fellow Republicans running on the same tickets for the Senate who were closely linked to Trump. Their success underscored how a more conventional, yet still conservative, candidate could prosper at the presidential level in 2024 if they eschewed Trump’s extreme behavior and conspiracies.

The new Republican House, which will take over in January, is likely to also have a strong influence on the GOP’s future direction and its performance in the 2024 election, which will now at least partly become a referendum on its power in government. The new House majority figures to be a valuable political weapon for Trump and its slim room for maneuver could actually give his most extreme allies in the chamber more leeway to dictate policy and tactics. And McCarthy needs the former president to convince House Freedom Caucus members to support him in his bid for the speakership in the new year and to keep him in power. So while the debate over the future of the party rages elsewhere, the House will be pro-Trump.

How that weighs on his party’s prospects with voters will only become clear in another election, in 2024.

GOP puts on a show of disunity as it edges toward House majority ...

CNN —

Washington Republicans are in an uproar hours ahead of Donald Trump’s expected launch of a new presidential run, exacerbated by the party’s protracted wait for the House majority it will use to try to weaken President Joe Biden.

Trump apparently plans to open the 2024 election cycle at his Mar-a-Lago resort Tuesday evening, despite the failure of his election-denying acolytes in the midterms and unusual ambivalence among GOP lawmakers over his prospects.

His unsuccessful attempt to leverage the congressional elections to display his own power set off a mess of infighting and recriminations over the failure of the GOP to stir a red wave to claim big congressional majorities. It also raised questions over Trump’s own 2024 general election viability. The result is that the GOP in Washington is further weakened and Trump is under some of the most intense pressure he’s faced during a turbulent political career – even if there’s no sign yet that his enduring power base in the party’s adoring grassroots has eroded.

The ex-President had clearly hoped to claim credit for a banner Republican midterm performance to supercharge his bid to win back the presidency, but the party failed to recapture the Senate – and a whole week from Election Day, it is still waiting for its control of the House to be confirmed. The GOP did add several seats overnight and now stands three seats short of the 218 it needs. But its eventual margin will be far smaller than it had hoped, meaning the majority will be volatile and hard to manage.

Still, while that could cause general chaos in Washington, it could give pro-Trump factions in the party the chance to maximize their leverage on potential House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who is facing a tougher than expected struggle to nail down the votes he would need to take the top job in January. On Monday evening, GOP Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona confirmed he would challenge McCarthy in a bid to show he didn’t yet have sufficient support to speaker.

Still, the California Republican and current minority leader did get a standing ovation after calling on his conference to show unity on Monday ahead of Tuesday’s leadership elections.

Back-biting has also broken out in the Senate GOP, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz slamming veteran Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, while Florida Sen. Rick Scott mulls a challenge despite his failed stewardship of the GOP campaign committee’s bid to win the Senate. A fight also looms over control of the Republican National Committee.

Video Ad Feedback Ted Cruz says he's 'pissed off' and is blaming Mitch McConnell 01:26 - Source: CNN

The finger-pointing is emerging over a disappointing performance for Republicans. Trump-style extremism was repudiated at the ballot box in a vote that ought to have been a referendum on an unpopular sitting president in a tough economy – rather than one on a predecessor who left the White House but won’t go away.

There is every logical reason for Republicans to move on from Trump. One lesson from last week’s election is that voters didn’t reject Republicans per se. Authentic conservatives who distanced themselves from the ex-president, like Govs. Brian Kemp of Georgia, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Ron DeSantis of Florida and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire cruised to reelection.

But multiple Trump-backed candidates for governor, secretary of state posts, and Senate and House seats flamed out. One of the most high-profile election deniers, Arizona Republican Kari Lake, will lose to Democrat Katie Hobbs, CNN projected Monday evening. Democrats in Michigan, meanwhile, won control of the state legislature, which had spent the last two years on election-denying distractions. Swearing loyalty to Trump and his election fraud hot air proved to be a disastrous campaign strategy for many candidates.

Campaign announcement to set up GOP test

The projected defeat of Lake in the Arizona governor’s race on Monday completes a near total rout of 2020 election deniers in swing states whom Trump thrust into the midterm elections.

His determination to run again is already drawing widespread opposition among many Republicans on Capitol Hill, who are reeling from their failure to whip up a red wave to capture the Senate, where Democrats held on, and the House, which remains uncalled.

A new Trump campaign would set up a test between the growing skepticism of his ambitions among the upper echelons of his party and the adoration millions of base voters still feel for the twice-impeached ex-president.

Despite once telling supporters he’d do so much winning they’d get tired of it, Trump’s record on Election Day is pretty thin – save from the transformative shock of his 2016 triumph over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The GOP’s losses under his watch – when they lost the House in 2018 and the Senate two years later – are driving a debate over his political viability within the party he has long dominated. His foisting of poor quality, extreme, election-denying candidates on the GOP in this year’s midterms is not just dampening his possible launch party. The ex-president is being accused of sabotaging his own team.

But true to form, Trump has shown little sign of self-doubt. Instead, he’s been attacking those Republicans who have proven they can build broad majorities more recently than he has – including DeSantis, his biggest potential threat in a presidential primary, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who campaigned for GOP candidates across the country this year after last year flipping a state Biden had won by 10 points.

But while Trump’s brand is tarnished and there are fresh doubts over whether a new campaign based on his obsessive claims of false voter fraud will fly in a general election, his past record of resilience suggests he shouldn’t be dismissed.

The 45th president has been down and damaged before – after the “Access Hollywood” tape was released in his first campaign, when Republicans lost the House in 2018, and then again following his own general election defeat in 2020. He earned the historic shame of a second impeachment after inciting an insurrection at the US Capitol in 2021.

But he’s always bounced back, leveraging a near mythical bond with the Republican base to break party rivals. Trump’s power has always been rooted in the notion that potential Republican foes cannot afford to attack him since they’d alienate his supporters and ruin their own political careers. One motivation behind an early White House announcement may be to prove that’s still true, as candidates like DeSantis, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, and other presidential wannabes assess his strength as they consider their own aspirations.

Pence, for example – who will appear in a CNN town hall on Wednesday evening – told ABC News in an interview that aired Monday that the American people will “have better choices in the future.”

A 2024 presidential race – with several strong potential GOP alternatives ready in the wings – will test whether Trump’s magnetism with primary voters will overcome growing fatigue over his incessant 2020 election fraud lies. And it would ask GOP primary voters a question: is their devotion to the ex-president more important than worries about his capacity to actually win the White House, despite growing evidence to the contrary?

‘Is it time to rebuild?’

So unless he has a major change of attitude, Trump – who still fumes with fury about the last presidential election in every campaign rally – will have to prove that that his false claims of a stolen election in 2020 are a winning message in 2024.

Evidence suggests that while those falsehoods may still be a hot currency inside the GOP grassroots, it’s a bust in a broader national electorate.

“You know, if you lose over and over to what’s really not that great of a team, you have got to reassess, is it time to rebuild?” Maryland’s Republican Gov. Larry Hogan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “Trump’s cost us the last three elections. And I don’t want to see it happen a fourth time.”

Video Ad Feedback GOP governor: 'Trump cost us the race' 02:05 - Source: CNN

Outgoing Pennsylvania GOP Sen. Pat Toomey effectively accused the ex-president of losing his seat. The Democratic path to Senate control ran through Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz. With Trump’s backing, Oz had narrowly prevailed over businessman David McCormick, a potentially stronger general election candidate, in the primary.

“All over the country, there’s a very high correlation between MAGA candidates and big losses, or at least dramatically underperforming,” Toomey told CNN’s Erin Burnett last week.

On Monday, Idaho GOP Rep. Mike Simpson told CNN said that while he embraced Trumpism, he had tired of Trump and didn’t think he was good for the party. “I think his policies were good. I just don’t need all the drama with it,” he told CNN’s Alex Rogers.

And one of the incoming Republican House lawmakers, Mike Lawler, who picked up a Democratic seat in New York, said it was time for someone else. “I would like to see the party move forward,” he said on CNN’s “This Morning” last week.

And in an exclusive interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper on Monday, outgoing Republican Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said that people were tired of the radicalism represented by the former president.

“One of the big lessons that the Republican Party nationally needs to take away from (the midterms) is voters want collaborative elected officials. They don’t want extremes,” Baker said.

Video Ad Feedback Outgoing GOP governor: Here's what Republicans should learn from midterms 02:10 - Source: CNN

Trump still knows his base like few other Republicans

But while there are important strategic reasons for ambitious Republicans to desert Trump, past experience suggests it would be foolish to dismiss him – even if his early launch, if it happens, could antagonize voters still exhausted by the previous election.

To begin with, many of those most loudly questioning his continued dominance of the party in recent days have already broken with him in some fashion. There are few signs that more pro-Trump politicians like Cruz are pulling away.

Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, often spoken of as a future GOP presidential candidate, did hint that he was considering his options when he described the midterms as “the funeral for the Republican Party as we know it.” The Missouri Republican, who has publicly vowed to oppose McConnell’s bid for leader, called for a conversation about what the GOP can do for working class voters before the 2024 election.

“I like a lot of what President Trump did as president … we need to have a conversation about our core convictions. … Clearly this party is going to have to be different or we are not going to be a majority party in this country,” Hawley told Capitol Hill reporters on Monday.

But at the same time, Trumpism is actually returning to power in Washington. The likely new Republican House may only enjoy a small majority, but it would still be an overwhelmingly pro-Trump force that would relish the chance to try to thwart Biden’s presidency ahead of a possible clash with his predecessor in 2024. Ambitious GOP leaders like New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, the third-ranking House Republican, have already endorsed Trump for president. If Trump is able to demonstrate he’s still strong with grassroots voters, some Republicans might, as they always have before, judge that their hopes for a future in the party mean they must swallow their antipathy to the former president yet again.

Felling Trump might require a candidate like DeSantis to risk his political future to try to take him out. And another crowded primary in the GOP’s winner-take-all presidential race could splinter opposition to Trump and help him plot a path to the nomination.

Trump has never been a cerebral, logical choice for his supporters. In 2016, he fused frustration with the globalized economy and contempt for elites to create a powerful political movement. And it goes deeper than policy. Trump offers his supporters an emotional connection. His rallies are less political speeches than raucous, politically incorrect nights out at which vast crowds relish his defiance, his embrace of their grievances and willingness to say anything, as he crushes propriety and convention. People really do want to believe what he says and not – as he famously once cautioned them against – the facts that the press reports. Attendees often look like they are having the time of their lives with a candidate who, despite serving as president for four years, has maintained the conceit that he’s just one of them and not a real politician.

If Trump can rekindle that feeling, he’d still be a formidable force in the GOP whether or not its grandees believe he’d risk losing them yet another election in 2024.

Ranking the 2024 Republican field | CNN Politics

CNN —

Donald Trump is, reportedly, itching to announce his 2024 presidential campaign.

As CNN’s Gabby Orr reported late last month:

“Over the past few weeks, the former President has been chatting up friends and advisers about the looming 2024 presidential contest, including taking their temperature on an earlier-than-expected campaign announcement.”

Every single bit of evidence – that reporting included – suggests that another Trump presidential bid is a when-not-if question.

“I would say somewhere between 99 and 100 percent,” Jason Miller told Cheddar last fall when asked about the chances that Trump runs again. “I think he is definitely running in 2024.”

This spring, Trump himself was blunt about another bid. “We’ve already won two presidential elections,” Trump told a group of Republican donors in New Orleans. (Fact check: he won the 2016 election and lost the 2020 election.) “And now I feel obligated that we have to really look strongly at doing it again. We are looking at it very, very strongly. We have to do it. We have to do it.”

Given that Trump could be an announced 2024 candidate by the end of the summer, I thought it made sense to offer up my inaugural ranking of the 2024 Republican presidential field now. In addition to Trump’s public statements, a wide variety of other aspiring national candidates have been making the obligatory trips to places like Iowa and New Hampshire as a way to signal their own interest.

Below, I’ve ranked the 10 people most likely to win the Republican nomination as of today. You’ll notice that you don’t see the likes of Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan or former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie – both of whom would, presumably, run as anti-Trumpers – in the rankings. That’s because I am very skeptical that there is anything close to majority support for a candidate running expressly against Trump/Trumpism.

Don’t see your favorite on the list? Never fear! We are still 884 days away from the 2024 general election! There’s still (plenty of) time! And stay tuned for my rankings of the 2024 Democratic field!

10. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas: I wrestled with who should get the final spot on the list – considering Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley among others. I eventually settled on Cotton because a) I think he is the smartest politician of that group b) he represents the sort of muscular conservatism that I think very much would appeal to Trump voters if the former President isn’t in the race and c) he will outwork almost any one else in the race. Cotton’s challenges are clear: He would have to prove he could raise money to be competitive and he would have lots of work to do to raise his name identification among GOP base voters.

9. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida: Scott has been perennially underestimated in his political career. First, people said that he couldn’t win the governorship. He served two terms in the job. Then they said he couldn’t get elected to the Senate; he knocked off longtime Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson to do just that in 2018. Scott’s ambitions are clearly national in scope; his decision to release a policy agenda that he wants to implement if Republicans retake control of the Senate in 2023 is proof of that.

8. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin: Two things are true about the Virginia governor: 1) He was just elected to his first public office in 2021 and 2) He is term limited out of that job in 2025. That second point means that Youngkin, necessarily, is already keeping one eye on his future. His successful win in Virginia in 2021 was widely touted as evidence that the GOP can keep the Trump base of the party happy while also appealing to critical swing, suburban voters. I tend to think Youngkin is more VP material in the end but the success and notoriety derived from his 2021 campaign means he can’t be ignored if he goes for the top job.

7. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott: While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis gets the most 2024 buzz among the Republican state executives – more on that below – Abbott has effectively used his perch as the top elected official in Texas to position himself for a presidential race as well. Abbott has been open about his interest in the race – “We’ll see what happens,” he said in the wake of the 2020 election – but has to win his reelection bid against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke first.

6. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley: You can count on one hand the number of high-profile Trump appointees who left the administration on good terms with the former president. Haley, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, is one of them. “She’s done a fantastic job and we’ve done a fantastic job together,” Trump said when Haley left in 2018. “We’ve solved a lot of problems and we’re in the process of solving a lot of problems.” But, Haley has also publicly flip-flopped on Trump; she was openly critical of him in the aftermath of the January 6 riot at the US Capitol before falling in line behind him once it became clear that the party’s base didn’t view January 6 as disqualifying for the former president.

5. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas: Don’t forget that the Texas senator was the runner-up to Trump in the 2016 presidential race. And that, after a rocky relationship with Trump during the fall of 2016, Cruz has gone out of his way to make nice with the man who suggested his father might have been involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Cruz’s stronger-than-expected 2016 run should not be discounted – he has organizations in early states and a national fundraising base that is unmatched by those below him on this list.

4. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina: Like a number of people on this list, it’s hard to imagine the South Carolina Senator running for president if Trump is in the field. (Scott is on record as saying he would back a Trump 2024 campaign.) But, in a Trump-less field, Scott is deeply intriguing: He is the first Black senator elected from the Deep South since Reconstruction and the first Black Republican to serve in the Senate since 1979. He’s built a reliably conservative (and pro Trump) record during his nine years in the Senate while showing a willingness to work across the aisle when possible. If Republicans decide they need a new face to lead their party, Scott is at the front of that line.

3. Former Vice President Mike Pence: I really struggled on where the former vice president belonged on this list. On the one hand, he has been disowned by Trump (and the former president’s loyalists) for refusing to overturn the 2020 electoral college results. On the other, Pence has tons of residual name identification from his four years as vice president and retains a solid base of support among religious conservatives. The New York Times reported last month that Pence is trying to edge away from Trump as he considers running in 2024. That’s going to be a very delicate dance.

2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: There’s a clear gap between the Florida governor and the rest of the Republican field not named “Donald Trump.” DeSantis even managed to beat out the former President in a straw poll conducted at a Colorado conservative political conference over the weekend. DeSantis can’t take his eye off the ball – he is running for a second term this fall – but he has, to date, very effectively used his day job as a way to boost his national profile.

1. Former President Donald Trump: If you want to find cracks in the Trump foundation, you can do it; his endorsed candidates in governor’s races in places like Georgia, Nebraska and Idaho lost primaries earlier this year. But, that would miss the forest for the trees. The simple fact is that Trump remains the prime mover in Republican Party politics. If he runs – and I absolutely believe he will – he starts in a top tier all his own. The nomination is quite clearly his to lose – which doesn’t mean he can’t lose it.

Republican Jewish Coalition: GOP elites weigh Trump -- and the ...

CNN —

Former President Donald Trump addressed the influential Republican Jewish Coalition on Saturday, days after becoming the first declared GOP candidate of the 2024 presidential campaign.

But the chandeliered ballroom at the opulent Venetian resort hotel in Las Vegas teemed with his rivals – including potential chief nemesis Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – as some of the party’s most influential donors weigh alternatives to the divisive former president.

Trump still retains a “following” within the party, Mel Sembler, a Florida real-estate developer and GOP donor who sits on the coalition’s board, told CNN last week. But, he said, “I think people are getting tired of his controversies all the time.”

“What concerns me is if he wins the primary and loses the general,” added Sembler, who has not endorsed a 2024 candidate.

The annual leadership conference of prominent Jewish conservatives marked the first major gathering of GOP establishment forces since this month’s midterm letdown for the party, which saw Democrats retain their hold on the Senate and make inroads in state governments around the country.

Republicans did flip the House but will hold a slim majority in January after the “red wave” their party envisioned all year failed to materialize.

Leading Republican figures in Washington and elsewhere are casting blame on Trump for his role in boosting far-right Senate candidates who faltered in the general election – and for continuing to publicly nurse his own grievances about the 2020 election and his ongoing legal troubles. During his campaign kickoff Tuesday, he called himself a “victim” of a federal law enforcement system that he has spent years politicizing.

Trump’s legal difficulties appeared to deepen Friday when Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to oversee the criminal investigations into the retention of national defense information at his Mar-a-Lago resort and parts of the January 6, 2021, insurrection.

Rather than seeing the party unify behind his third presidential bid, Trump faced immediate blowback. Minutes after his announcement, daughter and former senior White House adviser Ivanka Trump distanced herself from her father’s campaign, saying she does “not plan to be involved in politics.”

His announcement also overlapped with a high-profile book tour by his own former vice president – and potential 2024 rival – Mike Pence, who also spoke in Las Vegas and has spent the past several days reminding Americans of Trump’s role in the violent US Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.

Perhaps the biggest blow to Trump’s campaign infrastructure was the swift and public defection of several billionaire GOP donors – including a close ally, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman – who said the country needed leaders “rooted in today and tomorrow, not today and yesterday.”

Others are hedging their bets.

Among those playing the field is Miriam Adelson, the billionaire widow of Las Vegas casino magnate and RJC benefactor Sheldon Adelson. The Adelsons have donated nearly a half-billion dollars to Republican groups and candidates in the last four election cycles – including tens of millions to boost Trump’s presidential ambitions, federal records show.

Trump in 2018 bestowed the Presidential Medal of Freedom – the nation’s highest civilian honor – on Miriam Adelson, citing her philanthropy.

Despite that relationship, Adelson intends to remain neutral in the GOP presidential primaries, an aide confirmed to CNN last week. Adelson, whose political contributions have slowed some since her husband’s death in January 2021, has indicated that she will financially support the eventual GOP nominee, whether that be Trump or someone else.

RJC executive director Matt Brooks said Trump has won plaudits from coalition members for his stalwart support of Israel during his presidency and unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Still, Brooks said, “people are window-shopping right now. There are people who are asking if we need a new direction and a new face.”

The outsider

Even as Trump prepared to make his pitch to the RJC, his allies and aides had sought to position him as the outsider in the 2024 contest, despite his recent White House occupancy.

“President Trump is running a campaign that represents everyday Americans who love their country,” campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement to CNN. “There are others who will answer to the political establishment, be beholden to corporations, and drag the United States into more unnecessary wars.”

And his allies noted that Trump’s fundraising operation largely relies on a small-dollar donor base, reducing his reliance on the party’s elite and giving him a potential edge over opponents who do not boast the same small-donation game.

He enters the 2024 campaign with more than $100 million in cash reserves across a sprawling network of political committees – although federal law could constrain his ability to fully tap those funds for his campaign.

“He has proven he can raise a lot of money on his own,” Michael Caputo, a former Trump administration official who remains close to the former president, recently told CNN.

Trump did not make the trek to Las Vegas but addressed the gathering live via satellite Saturday as part of a lineup that featured several other potential rivals for the GOP nomination, including South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, newly reelected New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Trump’s remote appearance was announced on Thursday, after it became clear that several of his potential 2024 rivals were scheduled to deliver their own remarks.

Trump opened the speech with lines straight from his standard stump speech, but he did offer a nod to the midterm elections and his White House bid.

“Breaking the radical Democrats’ grip on Congress this month was vital. It was a great thing. But we have always known that 2022 was not the end, only the beginning on the battle to save our country,” Trump said. “Now we have to take the fight straight to Joe Biden … and then we have to take back the White House in 2024.”

Marquee rivalry

DeSantis – fresh off the momentum of his double-digit reelection victory in Florida – addressed the group Saturday night during its gala dinner.

The governor made no mention of 2024 in his speech but touted his big reelection win – he defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points – and described Florida as being “a blueprint for success.”

“In times like these, there is no substitute for victory. We in Florida are the light. Freedom will reign supreme with Florida leading the way,” DeSantis said.

Trump has recently stepped up his attacks on DeSantis, and another potential 2024 challenger, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Two sources familiar with Trump’s thinking said part of the reason he has lashed out is because he believes both governors are actively soliciting support from “his donors.” Trump has told aides and allies that DeSantis especially is trying to pitch himself to deep-pocketed Republicans who helped bankroll Trump’s reelection campaign.

A Republican fundraiser in Florida with knowledge of DeSantis’ political operation said, “Of course, he’s talking to those people. They’re fair game and every Republican is going to go after those donors because that’s the smart thing to do, it’s not with the mindset, ‘Let’s screw Trump.’”

The conservative Club for Growth, one of the biggest outside spenders in politics, has already broken with Trump and last week circulated internal polling that suggested DeSantis could mount a serious challenge to the former president in early voting states and Florida, where both reside. The group plowed $2 million into DeSantis’ reelection effort this cycle, according to Florida campaign filings.

David McIntosh, the former Indiana congressman who runs the group, declined a CNN interview request through a spokesman.

Last week, as the contours of the new GOP majority in the House became clear, DeSantis won praise from national Republicans for injecting himself into congressional map-making this year. In a rare move for a governor, DeSantis pushed state lawmakers to adopt his map, which controversially eliminated two districts represented by Black Democrats and the GOP is now projected to hold 20 of 28 districts in the next Congress.

“That map created four new Republican wins,” said a GOP consultant who has been close to Trump and asked not to be named to speak candidly about the 2024 race. “That’s the practical reality of a conservative governor standing up to his own party and saying, ‘We’re not going to cut deals and do things the old way.’”

DeSantis last week sought to sidestep questions about the growing rivalry with Trump, urging people “to chill out a little bit” – even as he touted his margin of victory in his reelection. CNN has previously reported that those close to DeSantis believe he does not intend to announce his plans before May.

“The smartest thing DeSantis could do is stay out of the fray for as long as possible,” said the Republican consultant. “Don’t stick your face in the frying pan too early.”

‘We keep losing and losing and losing’

Many of Trump’s potential 2024 rivals spoke at the conference in Las Vegas, offering post-midterm assessments and making their pitch for how the party should move forward.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, an early ally of Trump, issued a long and passionate indictment of the former president on Saturday, casting Trump as a cancer on the Republican Party and the sole responsible figure for its recent election losses.

“We keep losing and losing and losing,” Christie said. “The reason we’re losing is because Donald Trump has put himself before everybody else.”

Christie slammed Trump for recruiting candidates under the singular qualification that they deny the results of the 2020 election.

“That’s not what this party stands for,” the former governor said. “It’s not what it should stand for in the future, and we’ve got to stop it now.”

Christie pointed to midterm GOP defeats in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and warned that without a resurgence in those states – especially in the suburbs – Republicans held no hope of winning back the White House in 2024.

Echoing those fears, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said that “candidate quality matters,” while adding, “I got a great policy for the Republican Party: Let’s stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November.”

Sununu was initially courted to run for US Senate, but ultimately decided to run for reelection. The GOP nominee, retired Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who has pushed falsehoods about the 2020 election, went on to lose to Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who headed the Senate GOP’s campaign arm this election cycle, said Republicans’ midterm hopes for a “red wave” did not materialize because the party focused too much on “how bad the Democrats are” and did not offer voters its own policy vision.

“The current strategy of most Republicans in Washington is to only be against the crazy Democrats – and they’re crazy – and never outline any plan what we are for and what we will do. That is a mistake,” the senator said.

Scott’s comments come days after his failed bid to oust Mitch McConnell as the party’s Senate leader.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who unsuccessfully ran for president against Trump in 2016, urged the GOP to try to broaden its appeal outside the party’s base.

“We spend far too much time preaching to the choir; talking to the same 2.6 million people watching Fox News every night,” Cruz said.

Cruz also said he had spoken at Senate Republicans’ recent leadership election to urge the party to take a harder line against Democratic policies.

“Republicans in the Senate don’t fight,” he said Saturday.

Cruz said he urged GOP leaders to “pick two or three or four things that matter and say, ‘We believe in it.’”

In his own remarks, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy touted the GOP taking control of the chamber in the midterms and promised that Republicans would be quick to wield their new subpoena power next year.

“We finally have a check and balance,” the California Republican said, before pausing to prod the audience, “You can applaud that, that was a big victory.”

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, meanwhile, said Saturday that she will “have more to say soon” about a potential 2024 presidential run, while adding that she’s “won tough primaries” before.

Haley, a onetime South Carolina governor, called on the GOP to “look in the mirror” after the party’s lackluster midterm performance, saying, “Republicans spent as much time fighting each other as we did the Democrats.”

“It is time to quit eating our own,” Haley said.

Outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan took a hard stance against the former president Friday night, saying in Las Vegas that the Republican Party was “desperately in need of a course correction.”

“Trump was saying that we’d be winning so much we get tired of winning. Well, I’m sick and tired of our party losing. And after this election last week, I’m even more sick and tired than I was before,” Hogan said.

“Look, this is the third election in a row that we lost and should have won. I say three strikes and you’re out. If you repeatedly lose to a really bad team, it’s time for new leadership,” he added.

This story has been updated with more information.

Fredreka Schouten Gaborr Steve Contorno
Fredreka Schouten
Steve Contorno

Kevin McCarthy seeks to assuage House Republican concerns ...

CNN —

House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy sought to assuage House Republican concerns at a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill on Monday night, part of his campaign to lead the House GOP conference and possibly take the speakership in the next Congress.

The California Republican and House minority leader got a standing ovation in the conference’s first post-election meeting, according to a source familiar with the meeting. However, McCarthy also faced tough questions and complaints from his members who were disappointed in Republicans’ performance in this year’s midterms. While the GOP appears likely to win enough seats to flip control of the House, the margin is expected to be smaller than originally predicted.

“They don’t give out gavels in small, medium, and large – we have the majority and we have the gavels,” McCarthy said at the meeting, according to the source. CNN has not yet projected who will control the House in the next congress.

House Republicans will hold a closed-door vote on Tuesday. McCarthy will only need a simple majority to advance from Tuesday’s vote as the speaker nominee, but the vote on the House floor for speaker will come when the new House convenes in January, and McCarthy will need 218 votes at that time to win the speakership.

On Monday night, Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, a former chairman of the pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus, announced in an interview with Newsmax he was mounting a long-shot challenge to McCarthy during the House GOP’s internal leadership elections.

“I’m going to be nominated tomorrow to the position of Speaker of the House,” Biggs said on Newsmax. “We’ll see if we can get the job done and the votes. It’s going to be tough. Kevin has raised a lot of money and done a lot of things. But this is not just about Kevin. I think it’s about institutional direction and trajectory.”

One of McCarthy’s sharpest critics, Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida predicted McCarthy is far short of the threshold he will need to get the coveted post.

“What I can tell you as I stand here right now is that Kevin McCarthy does not have 218 votes to become speaker,” he said. “I don’t think he has 200.”

Trump encourages allies to back McCarthy

Former President Donald Trump has been privately encouraging allies to support McCarthy’s bid for House speaker, according to two sources familiar with the effort, believing that the California Republican will be an asset down the road should the former president find himself in a contested 2024 primary.

Trump reaffirmed his support for McCarthy’s leadership bid in an interview with Fox News last week and he has since been working the phones to persuade Republican allies to back him, particularly conservative members who remain skeptical of McCarthy.

The news comes on the eve of Trump’s expected announcement for a third presidential campaign. The former president and the California Republican have spoken multiple times since the midterm elections, sources said, and McCarthy’s camp is hoping Trump’s endorsement will help win over some of the staunchest Trump supporters who have been critical of McCarthy.

Despite Trump’s pro-McCarthy campaign, it hasn’t fully broken through. Some of Trump’s staunchest allies have been all over conservative media attacking McCarthy. However, one notable Trump ally who will actually get to vote in the speaker’s race went on Steve Bannon’s podcast on Monday and expressed support for McCarthy: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who called it a “bad strategy” and “risky” to challenge McCarthy given their likely razor-thin majority.

McCarthy has worked hard to court Greene, from having weekly meetings with her in his office to promising her better committee assignments after Democrats kicked her off committees for incendiary remarks.

Meanwhile, Trump aides and allies have been privately critical of Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer, head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, amid the GOP’s underwhelming midterm gains, especially on the House side. CNN has not yet projected which party will control the lower chamber, though Republicans appear on track to gain a narrow House majority. Emmer is competing against Rep. Jim Banks, an ally of Donald Trump Jr., for the position of House GOP whip.

“The strategy is to protect McCarthy from blame because [Trump] needs him for his presidential run,” said one Trump adviser.

Trump has been eager to lock up public support from Republicans for his third presidential bid, with a separate GOP source saying he has been asking to see which GOP lawmakers have endorsed him in the media. So far, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik has been the highest-ranking Republican to officially back Trump’s 2024 bid.

Trump’s support for McCarthy stands in contrast with his relationship to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. GOP sources told CNN last week that Trump is calling up his allies in the Senate to gin up opposition to the Kentucky Republican ahead of leadership elections in that chamber Wednesday.

A small, but vocal, group of GOP senators has been calling to delay their leadership elections so they can have a “family discussion” about why the GOP underperformed. And at least one Republican, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, has publicly vowed to oppose McConnell’s bid for GOP leader.

McConnell has been calling his colleagues over the last several days to shore up his support as his team plans to plow forward with leadership elections on Wednesday. They are planning to have a GOP air-clearing session on Tuesday.

House Freedom Caucus’ influence looms

Several members of the Freedom Caucus met with McCarthy in his office Monday as they seek to extract concessions from him in exchange for their speaker votes.

Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Scott Perry said that while McCarthy has been willing to hear them out, he doesn’t see McCarthy cutting any deals until after Tuesday, when Perry is “99% confident” that someone will challenge McCarthy to show him he doesn’t have the 218 votes he would need on the House floor in January.

“I don’t think anything’s gonna really change between now and then,” Perry told CNN, leaving the meeting in McCarthy’s office.

Rep. Bob Good, who said McCarthy faces “an uphill climb” to the speakership, said they’ve asked McCarthy to bring to them his proposal for running the House.

Good later said he would back Biggs’ run.

“I’m voting for Mr. Biggs tomorrow,” he said. “The country needs transformational change. And that’s gotta start with changing how Congress operates, how the Republican Party operates.”

Perry said that while their primary focus has been seeking rules changes that would empower individual members – and weaken the speaker – that is “not the limit” of their issues.

“We want to see this place change dramatically, to reflect the will of the people and to acknowledge how broken it is,” he said. “It’s incumbent upon anybody that wants to lead to kind of lay out their vision and how they would change their portion of it.”

This story and headline have been updated with additional developments Monday.

Melanie Zanona Gaborr Alex Rogers Annie Grayer

Key dates for the 2022 midterm election | CNN Politics

CNN —

Voting ends in the first primaries for the 2022 midterm elections in a matter of days.

Texas will kick things off on March 1, and the primary process will wrap up more than six months later on September 13 in Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. Those contests will tee up Election Day on November 8, when control of the House and Senate will be up for grabs as well as several high-profile gubernatorial races in key battleground states.

The outcome of November’s elections will serve as a referendum on President Joe Biden’s first two years in office and set the table for the 2024 presidential campaign. Biden and congressional Democrats have scored some legislative victories and are poised to confirm a history-making pick to the Supreme Court in Ketanji Brown Jackson. Yet economic anxiety punctuated by inflation concerns combined with exhaustion over the coronavirus pandemic has tilted the political environment in favor of Republicans, who also have electoral history on their side. There is also a unique dynamic to these midterms, with former President Donald Trump eyeing a potential return to the White House and looking to lay the groundwork by endorsing candidates in GOP primaries who have embraced his lies about the 2020 election results.

The majority in the Senate, currently split 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as a tiebreaker, is expected to come down to a handful of competitive races. There are four Democratic incumbents running in battleground states Biden won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. Republicans have incumbents seeking reelection in Wisconsin and Florida, and they’re defending three open seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio. In total, 34 Senate seats will be decided in November.

In the House, Republicans need a net gain of five seats to win control of the chamber. More than 40 members, mostly Democrats, have announced they are leaving Congress. Some of those decisions were driven by redistricting, the once-a-decade process of redrawing congressional and state legislative boundaries. In states with partisan control of the process, both parties have tried to draw new maps to their advantage: to pick up more seats, shore up incumbents or reduce the number of competitive districts.

There are currently 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors – with 36 seats up for grabs this November – including several in battleground states that could play a significant role in deciding the outcome of the 2024 election. Beyond elections for governor, state races for secretary of state and attorney general will receive unprecedented attention, as the battle over how elections are handled intensifies in the aftermath of the 2020 campaign.

Here are the key dates and contests to watch as the 2022 primary process plays out:

March 1: Texas primaries

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Lynda M. Gonzalez/Pool//Getty Images

The Lone Star State is home to a few intriguing GOP statewide primaries and a House Democratic primary that highlights the ideological divide within the party.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking reelection to a third term, which could set the stage for a potential 2024 bid. First, he must get through a GOP primary that includes challenges from former (Florida) Rep. Allen West and businessman and ex-state Sen. Don Huffines.

There is also a contested Republican primary in the race for state attorney general, with incumbent Ken Paxton being challenged by state Land Commissioner George P. Bush, US Rep. Louie Gohmert and former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman. Paxton’s rivals have taken aim at his legal problems, but Trump has thrown his support behind the incumbent, who led a failed effort to challenge the 2020 election results in four battleground states at the US Supreme Court.

In south Texas, there is a rematch of a 2020 Democratic primary in the 28th Congressional District between centrist Rep. Henry Cuellar and immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros, who has received the endorsement of progressive leaders, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The FBI searched Cuellar’s home and campaign office in January, but the nine-term congressman released a video a week later vowing to seek reelection despite the “ongoing investigation.”

The Dallas-area 3rd Congressional District is the site of a battle over how the GOP should handle the 2020 election and the events of January 6, 2021. Rep. Van Taylor is a conservative Republican, but he voted to accept the 2020 presidential election results and supported an independent commission to investigate the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. (He opposed the select committee that was eventually created.) He’s now facing several primary challengers who question the results of the election, criticize Taylor’s vote on the commission and downplay the Capitol insurrection. The district also became much more Republican in redistricting, so while the seat shouldn’t be competitive in November, it could be easier for a more right-wing candidate to defeat Taylor in the primary.

April 5: Special election primary in California’s 22nd Congressional District

Former GOP Rep. Devin Nunes JIm Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Former GOP Rep. Devin Nunes set off this special primary contest with his resignation from Congress in January to join Trump’s new social media venture. Assuming no candidate gets a majority of the vote in the all-party primary, the top two finishers will face off in June, when California holds its general election primaries, giving the eventual winner about six months to represent this Central Valley seat in Congress. The district will have new boundaries for the election held in November.

May 3: Indiana and Ohio primaries

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine Paul Vernon/AP

The Buckeye State has a pair of Republican primary battles that could offer early clues about the GOP electorate heading into the heart of the nominating calendar.

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is seeking a second term. His management of the coronavirus pandemic has become the target of fierce criticism from opponent Jim Renacci, a former GOP congressman who has accused DeWine of governing Ohio “like a blue-state liberal.” On the Democratic side, it’s a battle between two former mayors, with Dayton’s Nan Whaley and Cincinnati’s John Cranley squaring off for the nomination.

In the GOP Senate primary, the crowded contest has at times veered toward political theater as several top contenders – most notably former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance – have sought to burnish their conservative pro-Trump credentials with incendiary rhetoric and inflammatory displays of opposition to public health precautions. Former state GOP chair Jane Timken and businessman Mike Gibbons are also making plays for the Trump base, while state Sen. Matt Dolan is testing the theory that there is still room in the party for a candidate who doesn’t fully embrace the former President.

After a history of teasing potential statewide bids only to pass, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan decided to take the plunge (with a helpful shove from redistricting) and launched a bid for US Senate. He faces a primary challenge from consumer protection attorney Morgan Harper. While Ohio has been trending red in recent years, Ryan is hoping to follow a similar blue-collar blueprint that has helped Sen. Sherrod Brown win statewide three times, most recently against Renacci in 2018.

May 10: Nebraska and West Virginia primaries

West Virginia Rep. David McKinley Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc./Getty Images

West Virginia is poised to hold the country’s first incumbent vs. incumbent primary of the 2022 cycle, featuring GOP Reps. David McKinley and Alex Mooney. The Republicans were drawn into the new 2nd Congressional District after the state lost a House seat following the 2020 census. The matchup will be an early test of Trump’s sway in GOP primaries, with the former President backing Mooney over McKinley, who did not object to counting the Electoral College vote and supported the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Mooney objected to the Pennsylvania electoral count, but not Arizona, and voted against the infrastructure package.

In Nebraska, outgoing Gov. Pete Ricketts urged Trump to stay out of the GOP primary to replace him, but the former President spurned the request and threw his support behind businessman Charles Herbster last October. Ricketts later endorsed Nebraska University Regent Jim Pillen, setting up a proxy battle between the two GOP leaders who both carried the Cornhusker State by wide margins.

Meanwhile, in Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, embattled GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is facing a primary challenge from state Sen. Mike Flood, who has been endorsed by Ricketts and former Gov. Dave Heineman. Fortenberry was indicted last fall for allegedly concealing information and lying to federal authorities investigating illegal campaign contributions. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

May 17: Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania primaries

Celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz Brad Barket/Getty Images

The fight for the GOP Senate nomination in Pennsylvania could be one of the nastiest and most expensive primary contests of the entire 2022 cycle, with hedge fund executive David McCormick and celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz trading pointed attacks over their personal ties to foreign countries. Both contenders are pumping massive amounts of their personal wealth into TV ads. The crowded field also includes former US ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, who, like the top contenders, is relying on her personal wealth, and Jeff Bartos, the party’s 2018 nominee for lieutenant governor. The race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey was upended last November when Trump-backed candidate Sean Parnell ended his campaign amid scrutiny of his turbulent personal life. So far, the former President has held off on throwing his support behind another candidate, a move that could shake up the trajectory of the primary.

Democrats see the Keystone State as perhaps the party’s best opportunity to flip a Republican-held Senate seat. The competition on the Democratic side features candidates with distinct backgrounds who represent divergent ideological factions within the party. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, an outspoken progressive and strong fundraiser, and Rep. Conor Lamb, a Marine Corps veteran and former federal prosecutor, are seen as the top contenders. Rounding out the field is state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who has won the backing of some progressive groups.

There is also a wide-open race for governor in Pennsylvania, with Democrat Tom Wolf term-limited. The lone Democratic candidate is state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who was one of the leading officials rebutting false claims about the commonwealth’s 2020 election results. The GOP field includes state Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman, former US Rep. Lou Barletta, former US Attorney Bill McSwain, state Sen. Doug Mastriano and businessman Dave White. Trump, and his lies about the election, are expected to be a driving factor in the primary.

In North Carolina, Trump’s early surprise endorsement of US Rep. Ted Budd failed to clear the GOP Senate primary field, with former Gov. Pat McCrory, former US Rep. Mark Walker and Army veteran Marjorie K. Eastman also in the running to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Walker announced in January he would stay in the Senate race, defying Trump’s effort to get the former congressman to drop his bid and run for a House seat. On the Democratic side, the party has largely cleared the field for former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley.

Idaho is another state home to a GOP civil war, with Gov. Brad Little getting a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin. The two have engaged in a political tug-of-war, with McGeachin on multiple occasions using her powers as acting governor to issue executive orders while Little was out of state, only to have the governor rescind them upon his return. Trump endorsed McGeachin last November, calling her a “a true supporter of MAGA from the very beginning.”

May 24: Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia primaries; Texas runoffs (if necessary)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Megan Varner/Getty Images

There is perhaps no state on the 2022 map where Trump is seeking to exert his influence on the Republican Party more than Georgia, where he rolled out a “Trump ticket” of candidates, including two who are challenging GOP incumbents the former President attacked after they rejected his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

The top target for Trump is Gov. Brian Kemp, whose decision to certify Biden’s narrow win in Georgia unleashed fierce and frequent attacks by the former President. The attacks culminated with Trump’s endorsement of former US Sen. David Perdue after he launched a primary challenge against Kemp. Perdue lost his Senate runoff to Democrat Jon Ossoff in January 2021, which some Republicans blamed, in part, on Trump’s efforts to undermine the state’s election results. Now Perdue is making Trump’s lies about the 2020 election a cornerstone of his bid to defeat Kemp. The winner of the GOP primary will likely face Democrat Stacey Abrams, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial race to Kemp by less than 2 percentage points.

While the GOP primary for governor is unsettled, Republican Herschel Walker has plenty of running room in the Senate race. The former football star has Trump’s support as he seeks to defeat Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who scored a 2-point victory in a Senate special election runoff against Republican Kelly Loeffler last year. Warnock has been a prolific fundraiser, beginning 2022 with nearly $23 million in the bank.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stood up to Trump’s demands that he “find” the votes to overturn the 2020 election results in the state. Now the question is whether the state’s top election official can withstand a primary challenge from Trump-backed US Rep. Jody Hice, who embraced the former President’s false claims about the election. Among the Democratic contenders are state Rep. Bee Nguyen, who succeeded Abrams in the state legislature, and former Fulton County Commission chair John Eaves.

The Atlanta area will host the year’s first Democratic member vs. member primary, with Reps. Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux running in the newly redrawn 7th Congressional District after the GOP-controlled state legislature turned McBath’s current seat safely red. Both Democrats flipped suburban districts previously held by Republicans – McBath in 2018 and Bourdeaux in 2020.

Georgia won’t be the only state testing the power of Trump’s endorsement on this primary day. In Alabama, US Rep. Mo Brooks is hoping the former President’s support will help deliver him the GOP Senate nomination. But the conservative firebrand is running against two well-funded opponents: Katie Britt, a former top aide to retiring Republican Sen. Richard Shelby, and Mike Durant, an aerospace executive and former Blackhawk helicopter pilot. Brooks has struggled to take command of the field, prompting frustration from the former President.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey is running for a second full term but is being challenged by several candidates in the GOP primary, including Lindy Blanchard, who served as ambassador to Slovenia in the Trump administration. Blanchard initially launched a bid for the open Senate seat but switched gears to run for governor last December.

In Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee Sanders – a former White House press secretary under Trump and daughter of former Gov. Mike Huckabee – has a clear path to the Republican nomination as she seeks to succeed GOP Gov. Asa Hutchinson. With Trump having carried the Natural State by more than 20 points in 2020, Sanders is poised to follow in her father’s footsteps and become Arkansas’ first female governor.

June 7: California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries; special election in California’s 22nd Congressional District (if necessary)

California Gov. Gavin Newsom Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Last September, California Gov. Gavin Newsom became the second governor in US history to defeat a recall. Now the Democrat appears to be coasting toward a second term in office – which could serve as a platform for a national run down the road. There are already signs of a brewing feud between Newsom and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a top GOP 2024 prospect.

Sen. Alex Padilla, appointed by Newsom to the seat vacated by Harris ahead of her becoming vice president, is running for a full six-year term. At the same time, Padilla must run in a special election for the remaining weeks of the original Harris term.

California is losing a US House seat for the first time in the state’s history because of slower population growth. The new congressional maps, drawn by an independent commission, have scrambled the Golden State’s political landscape. With the potential for as many as 10 competitive House races this fall, the state’s top-two primary system could be a major factor in shaping the battleground map.

GOP Rep. David Valadao is running in the newly drawn 22nd District in the Central Valley, which became more favorable to Democrats under redistricting. Valadao is the only House Republican running for reelection who voted for to impeach Trump in 2021 for inciting the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and doesn’t have a challenger endorsed by the former President (yet). Among his Democratic challengers is Rudy Salas, a California assemblyman and former member of the Bakersfield City Council.

Another race to keep an eye on is the new 27th District around Los Angeles, where GOP Rep. Mike Garcia is a top target of Democrats. His challengers include former state assemblywoman Christy Smith, who is running for a third time against Garcia. She lost a special election and general election to him in 2020, with the latter race decided by a margin of just 333 votes. Democrat Quaye Quartey, a retired Navy intelligence officer, is also running.

Prior to serving as Trump’s interior secretary, Ryan Zinke spent about two years representing Montana in the US House. Zinke is now eyeing a return to Capitol Hill after Montana gained a House seat following the 2020 census, though he’s facing scrutiny about his current ties to the state.

June 14: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries

Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc./Getty Images

Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is one of the most endangered Senate Democrats running this year, looking to carry a state Biden won by less than 3 points in 2020. The top contender in the GOP field is former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the party’s 2018 nominee for governor, who has managed to unite the Trump and Mitch McConnell wings. Still, he is facing a primary challenge from Army veteran Sam Brown, who has demonstrated some fundraising strength.

In the Silver State’s race for governor, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak is seeking a second term, with several Republicans lining up to run against him, including former US Sen. Dean Heller and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

The fate of two Trump targets could be decided this day in South Carolina, where the former President has endorsed primary challengers to GOP Reps. Tom Rice and Nancy Mace. In the 7th Congressional District, Trump has backed state Rep. Russell Fry against Rice, who was one of the 10 House Republicans to vote in favor of Trump’s impeachment last January. Mace, who represents the 1st District, voted to certify the election results (but not for impeachment) and has tried to walk the Trump tightrope, criticizing his actions at times and embracing the former President at others. Trump has thrown his support behind former state Rep. Katie Arrington, who defeated former Rep. Mark Sanford in the 2018 GOP primary for the 1st District, only to lose to Democrat Joe Cunningham in the general election.

In Maine, a pair of Republicans are attempting political comebacks – with former Gov. Paul LePage and former US Rep. Bruce Poliquin both running for their old jobs. LePage is looking to challenge Democrat Janet Mills, who won the 2018 race to succeed him. Poliquin is eyeing a rematch in the 2nd Congressional District with Jared Golden, the Democrat who defeated him four years ago.

June 21: DC and Virginia primaries; runoffs in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia (if necessary)

Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger Win McNamee/Getty Images

Last November’s victory by Republican Glenn Youngkin in the race for Virginia governor boosted the GOP’s hopes that 2022 would be a strong year for the party in the commonwealth and beyond. This year, the battleground in the Old Dominion will center on two competitive House races featuring a pair of Democrats first elected in the 2018 blue wave – Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria. A handful Republicans have lined up to challenge Spanberger in the new 7th Congressional District, which was redrawn to include more of the Democratic-leaning exurbs in Northern Virginia but no longer includes the congresswoman’s home near Richmond. Luria’s 2nd District, meanwhile, became more favorable to Republicans under redistricting, with state Sen. Jen Kiggans seen as a top contender in the GOP primary.

June 28: Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma and Utah primaries; runoffs in Mississippi and South Carolina (if necessary)

Illinois Rep. Mary Miller Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc./Getty Images

The Land of Lincoln is the scene of not one but two dual incumbent House primaries after Illinois lost a seat based on the 2020 census.

The GOP contest in the 15th District will provide another test of Trump’s endorsement strength, with Reps. Mary Miller and Rodney Davis facing off. The former President rebuffed the advice of GOP leaders to remain neutral and threw his support behind Miller, a freshman member who has stirred controversy since arriving in Congress. Davis, now in his fifth term, is an ally of House Republican leadership and poised to become a committee chairman if the GOP wins control of the chamber.

Democrats have their own incumbent vs. incumbent primary in the 6th District, where Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman will compete for the party’s nomination. Casten flipped a GOP-held seat in 2018 while Newman narrowly defeated conservative Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski in a 2020 primary before winning her general election race by double digits.

On the same day, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul will face off against US Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams in the Democratic primary as Hochul seeks a full term in office. Hochul became the first female governor of the Empire State last August after Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid allegations of sexual harassment. Among the candidates on the Republican side are Rep. Lee Zeldin, 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino, businessman Harry Wilson and Andrew Giuliani, the son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

With popular Republican Gov. Larry Hogan unable to run for a third term in Maryland, Democrats are hopeful about their prospects of retaking the governor’s mansion after eight years of Republican rule. That optimism has produced a crowded Democratic field, which includes former US Labor Secretary Tom Perez, state Comptroller Peter Franchot, author and former nonprofit chief Wes Moore and former US Education Secretary John King. Trump has endorsed state Del. Daniel Cox, who is running in the GOP primary against Hogan’s preferred candidate, state Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz.

July 26: North Carolina runoffs (if necessary)

The calendar in July is rather bare, unless any of the North Carolina primary contests in May require a runoff to decide the winner. Candidates only need to top 30% of the vote to avoid that scenario.

August 2: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs Ross D. Franklin/AP

Two states at the center of Trump’s lies about the 2020 election will vote on this day – Arizona and Michigan.

Sparked by the former President’s falsehoods, GOP lawmakers in Arizona launched a months-long partisan review of the results in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, which ultimately confirmed Biden’s victory there. That fact has failed to dissuade Republican candidates from embracing Trump’s baseless claims. The former President has endorsed former TV anchor Kari Lake, who is running for governor, and state Rep. Mark Finchem, a candidate for secretary of state, both of whom have cast doubts about the 2020 election results.

Current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is running for governor, putting her defense of the state’s elections at the center of her candidacy. In addition to Lake, the other Republican contenders include former US Rep. Matt Salmon, developer and former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson and businessman Steve Gaynor.

Finchem is joined in the GOP secretary of state primary by state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, who has advocated for so-called election integrity legislation. The Democratic candidates hoping to succeed Hobbs include Adrian Fontes, the former Maricopa County recorder, and Arizona House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding.

Trump has yet to endorse in the Arizona GOP Senate primary, but his impact on the field has been felt in how the leading candidates are positioning themselves to align with the former President’s policies and politics. That list of hopefuls includes state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, businessman Jim Lamon and venture capitalist Blake Masters, who has the backing of tech billionaire Peter Thiel and the anti-tax Club for Growth.

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and his massive campaign war chest await whichever candidate emerges victorious on the Republican side. The former astronaut is running for a full six-year term after defeating appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally in a 2020 special election.

In Michigan, Trump has endorsed two statewide candidates who’ve spread election falsehoods – Kristina Karamo for secretary of state and Matthew DePerno for state attorney general. They are seeking to challenge incumbent Democrats Jocelyn Benson and Dana Nessel, who have pushed back on Trump’s efforts to undermine the state’s 2020 election results.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who was on Biden’s short list for vice president, is also seeking a second term. Businessman Kevin Rinke and former Detroit police chief James Craig are among a packed field of GOP candidates looking to challenge Whitmer.

The new congressional map in Michigan has set up an all-incumbent primary battle in the 11th district featuring Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens and Andy Levin. The district’s new lines make it a safer seat for Democrats than the one Stevens flipped in 2018. Levin has deep political roots in the state, with his father, Sander, serving in the US House for more than 30 years and his uncle Carl Levin serving six terms as a US senator.

GOP Rep. Peter Meijer is running for reelection in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District after voting for impeachment and faces a primary challenge in John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official who has the backing of the former President.

Trump has also endorsed state Rep. Steve Carra, who had launched a bid against Rep. Fred Upton, another GOP member who voted to impeach. But Upton has not yet officially announced if he’s running for another term, which would mean having to face off against fellow GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga in the newly drawn 4th District.

Two House Republicans from Washington who voted for Trump’s impeachment – Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse – will also face GOP primary voters on this day. Both have Trump-backed opponents in their all-party primaries. Retired Army Special Forces officer Joe Kent is challenging Beutler, while failed 2020 gubernatorial candidate Loren Culp is seeking to oust Newhouse. Like in California, the top two finishers in the primary advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

In Missouri, there is a crowded GOP primary to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Roy Blunt in a state that should favor the party. Some Republicans are concerned that if former Gov. Eric Greitens emerges as the nominee, it could put the seat in play for Democrats, given his scandal-plagued past. GOP Sen. Josh Hawley has endorsed US Rep. Vicky Hartzler in the primary, with state Attorney General Eric Schmitt, US Rep. Billy Long, state Senate President Pro Tempore Dave Schatz and St. Louis attorney Mark McCloskey also in the mix. On the Democratic side, Marine veteran Lucas Kunce appears to be the leading contender.

August 4: Tennessee primaries

Former State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus Gabriel Aponte/Getty Images South America/Getty Images for Concordia Ameri

Tennessee Republicans cracked Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper’s Nashville-based seat in redistricting, diluting the power of the vote in Davidson County, spreading it across three GOP-leaning districts. The move prompted Cooper to announce his retirement. It has also sparked a GOP showdown for the new 5th Congressional District. Trump is backing Morgan Ortagus, a former State Department spokesperson, while two top allies of the former President – US Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Madison Cawthorn – are supporting social media influencer Robby Starbuck. Former state House Speaker Beth Harwell is running for the redrawn seat as well.

August 9: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin primaries

Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson is the only Republican senator seeking reelection in a state Biden carried in 2020. A dozen Democrats have lined up to take on the two-term incumbent, who has evolved from a tea party insurgent during his first run in 2010 to a promoter of Covid-19 and January 6 conspiracies. The leading Democratic challengers appear to be Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry and state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski.

The GOP field to take on Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is less crowded, with former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, state Rep. Timothy Ramthun and Kevin Nicholson, who lost in the 2018 Senate Republican primary, among the contenders.

The last time a Republican candidate won a statewide office in Minnesota was 2006, when former Gov. Tim Pawlenty was narrowly reelected. Several Republicans are running to prevent Democratic Gov. Tim Walz from winning a second term. Misinformation about Covid-19 and the 2020 election have been key issues in the GOP primary. One leading candidate is Scott Jensen, a former state senator and family doctor, who has voiced vaccine skepticism and opposition to mandates. Another physician, Neil Shah, has suggested he took an unproven drug to treat coronavirus. At a forum last December, none of the five candidates who participated were willing to answer a plain “yes” when asked whether they thought Biden won a “constitutional majority in the Electoral College.”

Ultimately, whether Republicans lean toward a candidate like Jensen or Shah or a more mainstream pick like state Sens. Paul Gazelka or Michelle Benson, the primary may well be decided long before August. The state GOP will endorse a candidate at its convention in May and most, if not all, of the other candidates could drop their bids if they don’t earn that nod.

Vermont is the only state in the union that’s never sent a woman to Congress. But Democratic Sen. Pat Leahy’s decision to call it quits after almost 50 years in the Senate started a domino effect that could change that. Democratic Rep. Peter Welch, the state’s lone House member, is trying to move across the Capitol to succeed Leahy. That’s set up a Democratic primary in which two of the leading candidates are women. Lt. Gov. Molly Gray and state Sen. Becca Balint both declared for the seat shortly after Welch made his announcement.

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican who leads one of the most Democratic states in the nation, will also be up for reelection (Vermont governors serve two-year terms) but he’s yet to announce his plans.

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, both Democrats, also face voters this year.

August 13: Hawaii primaries

Hawaii Lt. Gov. Josh Green State of Hawaii

Term limits prevent Hawaii Gov. David Ige from seeking a third term, and several Democrats have lined up to succeed him. The primary field includes Lt. Gov. Josh Green, a doctor who has been one of the main faces of the state’s pandemic response, former Hawaii first lady Vicky Cayetano and former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell. US Rep. Kai Kahele has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.

Hawaii is one of the most Democratic states in the country, so the winner of the Democratic primary will be heavily favored in November.

August 16: Alaska and Wyoming primaries; South Dakota runoffs (if necessary)

Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney Oliver Contreras/Pool/Getty Images

Two of Trump’s top GOP targets in 2022 are Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. The coincidence of both states holding primaries on the same day sets up an epic test of the former President’s sway in the GOP.

There is arguably no Republican who has drawn Trump’s ire more than Cheney, who voted in favor of impeachment last year and is the vice chair on the House select committee investigating the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Trump has endorsed Harriet Hageman, a onetime critic, as the candidate to fulfill his goal of ousting Cheney. So has House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. And the Republican National Committee took the unprecedented step of censuring the congreswoman. Working in Cheney’s favor are her family’s deep roots in the state and her massive campaign war chest. She also might benefit from the fact that she could win the primary without receiving a majority of the vote, as Hageman has not cleared the field of Cheney challengers despite Trump’s support.

Murkowski is the lone Republican running for reelection this year who voted to convict Trump at his impeachment trial in the Senate. The former President has backed Kelly Tshibaka, who formerly led Alaska’s Department of Administration. But the race in Alaska will be complicated by the state’s new election system, with all the Senate candidates running on a single ballot and the top four finishers, regardless of party, advancing to the general election, which will be decided by ranked-choice voting. Given that, Murkowski is almost certain to advance to the November vote, where she could benefit from the reallocation process. The senator has faced tough reelection campaigns before – winning as a write-in candidate in 2010 after losing the GOP primary to a tea party challenger. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his allies are firmly behind Murkowski’s bid.

August 23: Florida primaries; Oklahoma runoffs (if necessary)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, who has made himself a national figure with a laissez-faire approach to the Covid-19 pandemic and willingness to embrace hot-button conservative causes, might be eyeing another office in a few years. But first, he needs to win a second term, with the possibility of a decisive victory likely to only spark further speculation about his ambitions beyond the Sunshine State.

Three Democrats are hoping to derail DeSantis’ rise, with US Rep. Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor, trying to reclaim his seat as Florida’s chief executive. Crist leads the Democratic field in fundraising. The other contenders to take on DeSantis are state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and state Sen. Annette Taddeo.

Before DeSantis, Sen. Marco Rubio was seen as the GOP’s rising star in Florida. His failed 2016 presidential bid upended that trajectory and led Rubio to reverse course and seek reelection to the Senate. Now he’s seeking a third term, with the onetime tea party darling turned Trump critic having fully embraced the former President amid Florida’s shift to the right. US Rep. Val Demings, a former Orlando police chief, is the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic primary and has been a strong fundraiser.

The outcome of these two races could dictate heading into 2024 how much attention and resources Democrats will deploy to Florida, which has been one of the premier battleground states in presidential races for many cycles.

September 6: Massachusetts primaries

Former state Rep. Geoff Diehl Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald/Getty Images

The decision by Republican Gov. Charlie Baker to not seek a third term in deep-blue Massachusetts sets up another test of Trump’s power inside the GOP. Former state Rep. Geoff Diehl originally launched his campaign as a challenge to Baker and picked up Trump’s endorsement. But while Diehl won’t have the popular incumbent as an opponent, he also doesn’t have a clear lane to November. Chris Doughty, a businessman and self-described moderate, joined the race in late January. While he doesn’t have electoral experience like Diehl, Doughty was able to open his campaign with half a million dollars of his own money.

On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Maura Healey, who entered the race after Baker declined to run again, leads the entire field in fundraising. State Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz is also running. Despite favoring Democrats at the federal level, Massachusetts has a habit of electing moderate Republican governors. Without Baker on the ballot, Democrats are hopeful they’ll avoid such a fate this November.

September 13: Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries

New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan Erin Scott/Getty Images

Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire is one of the GOP’s top targets in 2022, but the party’s hopes of flipping the seat took a hit last November when popular Granite State Gov. Chris Sununu passed on a Senate bid. Sununu’s decision sets up what could be a long and crowded GOP primary, given New Hampshire’s late primary date. Candidates include former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc and state Senate President Chuck Morse, who’s received praise from McConnell.

Redistricting is poised to make New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, currently held by Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, more favorable for Republicans. That shift has attracted a wide field of GOP challengers, including Matt Mowers, who lost to Pappas in 2020, former Trump aide Karoline Leavitt and Gail Huff Brown, a former TV anchor and the wife of former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

There will likely be another crowded primary on this day on the Democratic side in the Rhode Island governor’s race. Then-Lt. Gov. Dan McKee was elevated to the top job when Gina Raimondo was appointed as Biden’s commerce secretary last year, and he’s now seeking a full term. But Rhode Island Democrats aren’t just letting McKee have it. The packed field currently includes Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, former Secretary of State Matt Brown and Helena Foulkes, a former executive at Rhode Island-based CVS.

November 8: Election Day; Open primaries in Louisiana

Terence Burlij Melissa Holzberg Depalo Ethan Cohen

Ranking the 2024 Republican presidential field | CNN Politics

CNN —

Just as Donald Trump began to look vulnerable in a potential GOP presidential primary, the FBI executed a search warrant for classified documents he had kept at his Mar-a-Lago home after leaving the White House.

In a normal political world, such a development might disqualify Trump or at least hamstring him as he prepares to run for president again in 2024. In the bizarro political world in which we now find ourselves, however, it had the opposite effect among his base – turning Trump, again, into a martyr, the subject of an overreaching government dead set on targeting him no matter the cost.

The practical, political effects of the FBI’s search – putting aside the legal implications for Trump – are twofold:

1) There is a rallying effect among Republicans around Trump.

2) Talk of him announcing his candidacy before the November midterm elections has faded.

That does not mean that Trump would skate through the primary without competition. It’s hard to see – given the number of White House hopefuls out there and the level of their activity in key states – Trump not facing at least nominal competition for the Republican nod.

What it does mean, however, is that Trump is in a stronger political position today than he was three months ago. (Yes, I know, it’s weird.)

Below are the 10 people most likely to wind up as the Republican nominee for president in 2024. (My last rankings of the GOP field from June are here. And my latest 2024 Democratic presidential rankings are here.) A word of caution: it’s still very early so this list can and will change.

10. Rick Scott: The Florida senator is in the midst of a cold war with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over the best way to execute the fall campaign. But Scott, the chair of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, doesn’t seem particularly interested in trying to take McConnell’s job (and he wouldn’t be able to anyway). Scott’s eye is on a bigger prize – as evidenced by his recent trip to Iowa to campaign with a House candidate. (Previous ranking: 9)

9. Greg Abbott: Abbott has a comfortable, if not massive, edge over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in his bid for a second term as Texas governor. And he’s drawn a lot of national attention for busing migrants to New York and Washington, DC. Abbott has demonstrated an ability to raise the sort of money he would need to run for president, too. (Previous ranking: 7)

8. Mike Pompeo: No one on this list has been more overt about their interest in running for president than Pompeo. The former secretary of state recently visited New Hampshire, simply the latest in a series of trips to states expected to kick off the primary season. If Trump doesn’t run, expect Pompeo to position himself as an inheritor of the muscular foreign policy that the former President sought to make his legacy. (Previous ranking: Not ranked)

7. Nikki Haley: During a trip to Iowa this summer, the former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor leaned as far into a possible candidacy as she ever has. “If it looks like there’s a place for me next year, I’ve never lost a race,” she said. Haley had previously suggested she wouldn’t run if Trump did, but political promises are made to be broken. Haley is charismatic and experienced on the campaign trail. It remains to be seen how she would differentiate herself in a race against Trump, though. (Previous ranking: 6)

6. Ted Cruz: The Texas senator is set to go on a massive campaign trip for the midterm elections that will take him through three states – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada – that will play a critical role in picking the next Republican presidential nominee. Cruz, who finished second to Trump in the 2016 primary, is smart enough to know that the race is effectively frozen until Trump makes up his mind, but is putting in the work now so that if Trump bows out (unlikely, but possible) he would be in a position to take advantage. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. Mike Pence: Look, I get that he is the former vice president of the United States. And that as a result, Pence has name recognition and a donor network that is the envy of almost everyone on this list. At the same time, he is persona non grata with the unquestioned leader of the Republican Party. Even if Trump doesn’t run in 2024, can you imagine a scenario where he leaves Pence alone during a GOP primary campaign? I sure can’t. (Previous ranking: 3)

4. Glenn Youngkin: There’s a tendency to be skeptical of Youngkin because he is only now in his first year as the governor of Virginia. But as Barack Obama should have taught all of us, inexperience in national politics isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Youngkin is a very hot commodity in Republican politics these days; he’ll campaign for gubernatorial candidates in across the country in the coming weeks. Politics is all about timing and momentum – and right now, Youngkin has both on his side. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Tim Scott: On the one hand, the South Carolina senator publicly downplays his presidential aspirations. On the other, he spent a day in late August stumping for a House candidate in Iowa. (Scott has been to the state at least five times in the last three years.) So … The reality is that if Trump doesn’t run, it’s hard to see how Scott stays out of the 2024 race. And he would immediately be one of the contest’s front-runners – he is the only Black Republican in the Senate and has demonstrated an ability to raise money. (Previous ranking: 4)

2. Ron DeSantis: There’s no question that the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago took some wind from the sails of DeSantis’ presidential ambitions. But there’s also no question that the Florida governor is the only contender on this list who poses a direct threat to Trump in a presidential primary. DeSantis continues to show his knack for attracting national headlines – his stunt of flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard being the latest example – and, in so doing, rallying Trumpian conservatives to his cause. If Trump, as expected, enters the race, DeSantis will have a very tough choice to make. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Donald Trump: Yes, the former President is, without question, the favorite to win the Republican nomination for a third time. But it’s worth noting that he’s not as big a favorite as, say, Hillary Clinton was at this point for the Democratic nomination in the 2016 election cycle. (Clinton won the nomination, but the race against Bernie Sanders was far closer than early polling indicated.) Which is to say that the GOP nomination is Trump’s for the taking, but it is not a foregone conclusion that he wins it. Polling of late has picked up a sizable chunk of Republicans who are ready to look elsewhere for the next leader of their party. (Previous ranking: 1)

Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for ...

CNN —

Former President Donald Trump, aiming to become only the second commander-in-chief ever elected to two nonconsecutive terms, announced Tuesday night that he will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

“In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” Trump told a crowd gathered at Mar-a-Lago, his waterfront estate in Florida, where his campaign will be headquartered.

Surrounded by allies, advisers, and conservative influencers, Trump delivered a relatively subdued speech, rife with spurious and exaggerated claims about his four years in office. Despite a historically divisive presidency and his own role in inciting an attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, Trump aimed to evoke nostalgia for his time in office, frequently contrasting his first-term accomplishments with the Biden administration’s policies and the current economic climate. Many of those perceived accomplishments – from strict immigration actions to corporate tax cuts and religious freedom initiatives – remain deeply polarizing to this day.

As Trump spoke to a roomful of Republicans who expect him to face primary challengers in the coming months, he also claimed the party cannot afford to nominate “a politician or conventional candidate” if it wants to win back the White House.

“This will not be my campaign, this will be our campaign all together,” Trump said.

Trump’s long-awaited campaign comes as he tries to reclaim the spotlight following the GOP’s underwhelming midterm elections performance – including the losses of several Trump-endorsed election deniers – and the subsequent blame game that has unfolded since Election Day. Republicans failed to gain a Senate majority, came up short in their efforts to fill several statewide seats, and have yet to secure a House majority, with only 215 races called in their favor so far out of the 218 needed, developments that have forced Trump and other party leaders into a defensive posture as they face reproval from within their ranks.

Trump’s paperwork establishing his candidacy landed with the Federal Election Committee shortly before he delivered his announcement at Mar-a-Lago.

To the delight of aides and allies who have long advised him to mount a forward-looking campaign, he spent only a fraction of his remarks repeating his lies about the 2020 election. Though he advocated for the use of paper ballots and likened America’s election system to that of “third world countries,” Trump also tried at times to broaden his grievances – lamenting the “massive corruption” and “entrenched interests” that in his view have consumed Washington. Many of Trump’s top advisers have expressed concern that his fixation on promoting conspiracies about the last presidential election would make it harder for him to win a national election in 2024.

Throughout the hour-long speech, Trump made clear that he wants his campaign to be seen by Republicans as a sacrificial undertaking.

“Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand,” he said at one point, describing the legal and emotional toll his presidency and post-presidential period has taken on his family members.

On the heels of last week’s midterm elections, Trump has been blamed for elevating flawed candidates who spent too much time parroting his claims about election fraud, alienating key voters and ultimately leading to their defeats. He attempted to counter that criticism on Tuesday, noting that Republicans appear poised to retake the House majority and touting at least one Trump-endorsed candidate, Kevin Kiley of California. At one point, Trump appeared to blame his party’s midterm performance on voters not yet realizing “the total effect of the suffering” after two years of Democratic control in Washington.

“I have no doubt that by 2024, it will sadly be much worse and they will see clearly what has happened and is happening to our country – and the voting will be much different,” he claimed.

Beating others to the punch

Trump is betting that his first-out-of-the gate strategy will fend off potential primary rivals and give him an early advantage with deep-pocketed donors, aides say. He is widely expected to be challenged by both conservative and moderate Republicans, though the calculus of some presidential hopefuls could change now that he is running. Others – like his former Vice President, Mike Pence – may proceed anyway.

Trump’s third presidential bid also coincides with a period of heightened legal peril as Justice Department officials investigating him and his associates revisit the prospect of indictments in their Trump-related probes. The former president is currently being investigated for his activities before and during the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol and his retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate after he left office. While Trump is counting on an easy path to the GOP nomination with his sustained support among the party’s base, his announcement is likely to dash the hopes of party leaders who have longed for fresh talent. In particular, top Republicans have been paying close attention to the next moves of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won his reelection contest with a 19-point margin of victory and considerable support from minority and independent voters. Some Republican leaders may try to scuttle Trump’s campaign by elevating or encouraging alternative candidates, including DeSantis, who has been quietly laying the groundwork for a possible White House bid of his own.

Of course, any countereffort to inhibit Trump’s path to the nomination is likely to prove difficult. Despite his myriad legal entanglements and the stain of January 6, the twice-impeached 45th president remains immensely popular among most Republican voters and boasts a deep connection with his core backers that could prove difficult for other GOP hopefuls to replicate or weaken. Even leading conservatives who disliked Trump’s pugnacious politics and heterodox policies stuck with him as president because he helped solidify the rightward shift of the US Supreme Court with his nominations – one of the most far-reaching aspects of his legacy, which resulted in the conservative court majority’s deeply polarizing June decision to end federal abortion rights. In fact, while Trump ended his first term with the lowest approval rating of any president, Republicans viewed him favorably, according to a May NBC News poll. That alone could give Trump a significant edge over primary opponents whom voters are still familiarizing themselves with.

Among those potential competitors is Pence, who would likely benefit from high name recognition due to his role as vice president. Pence, who has been preparing for a possible White House run in 2024, is sure to face an uphill battle courting Trump’s most loyal supporters, many of whom soured on the former vice president after he declined to overstep his congressional authority and block certification of now-President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. Trump could also find himself pitted against DeSantis, who has risen to hero status among cultural conservatives and who is widely considered a more polished version of Trump. Even some of the former president’s advisers have voiced similar observations to CNN, noting that DeSantis also made inroads with major Republican donors during his quest for reelection and built a mountain of goodwill with GOP leaders by campaigning for federal and statewide Republican candidates in the middle of his own race.

Beyond his potential rivals, Trump has another roadblock in his path as the House select committee continues to investigate his role in January 6, 2021, and Justice Department officials weigh whether to issue criminal charges. The committee, which subpoenaed him for testimony and documents in October and which Trump is now battling in court, held public hearings throughout the summer and early fall featuring depositions from those in Trump’s inner circle at the White House – including members of his family – that detailed his public and private efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results through a sustained pressure campaign on numerous local, state and federal officials, and on his own vice president.

But Trump’s desire to announce his campaign early can be especially traced to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, which advisers say further emboldened his decision to mount what he believes will be a triumphant political comeback. The day after the search, the former president fielded calls from allies advising him to accelerate his 2024 timeline. That night, he huddled with House lawmakers in the Republican Study Committee and told them he’d “made up his mind” about launching a bid, though some of those same House Republicans later convinced him to wait until after the midterm elections to announce his next move.

Few of those lawmakers were present for Trump’s speech on Tuesday, choosing to remain in Washington as House Republicans conducted their leadership elections and the party continues to grapple with its failures in highly prized midterm races. Rather, the room was filled with prominent election deniers like MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, several of Trump’s attorneys, and past and present aides. Before he entered the room on Tuesday alongside former first lady Melania Trump, several members of the ex-president’s family were also seen filtering into the ballroom, including Eric and Lara Trump, his son Barron, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, who is engaged to Donald Trump Jr. His eldest son was notably missing, along with daughter Ivanka, , who has since said she will no longer be involved in the political arena. A source close to Donald Trump Jr. said he was stuck on a hunting trip in the mountain west and unable to catch a flight back to Florida in time for his father’s announcement. Other guests included longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone; outgoing North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn; former congressman and the current CEO of Trump’s Truth Social app Devin Nunes; and his chief political adviser Susie Wiles.

Preparing for 2024

From the moment Trump left Washington, defeated and disgraced, in January 2021, he began plotting a return to power – devoting the bulk of his time to building a political operation intended for this moment. With assistance from numerous former aides and advisers, he continued the aggressive fundraising tactics that had become a marker of his 2020 campaign, amassing a colossal war chest ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, and worked diligently to elect steadfast allies in both Congress and state legislatures across the country.

While maintaining a home base in Florida, he also regularly jet-setted across the country for campaign rallies that afforded him crucial face time with his base and with candidates he bet would become valuable allies in the US Senate and House.

Through it all, Trump continued to falsely insist that the 2020 election was stolen from him, indulging in far-flung conspiracy theories about voter fraud and pressuring Republican leaders across the party’s election apparatus to endorse changes that would curtail voting rights.

Trump’s aides were pleased earlier this fall when his public appearances and rally speeches gradually became more focused on rising crime, immigration and economic woes – key themes throughout the midterm cycle and issues they hope will enable him to draw a compelling contrast with Biden as he begins this next chapter. Allies of the former president have long said that he views the 2024 contest as an opportunity to regain what he believes is his: another four years in the Oval Office.

But there is no guarantee that Trump will glide easily to a nonconsecutive second term. In fact, it could be quite difficult.

Not only does history offer just one example of such a feat (defeated in 1888 after his first term, President Grover Cleveland was elected again in 1892), no previously impeached president has ever run again for office. Trump was first impeached in 2019 on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of justice, and then again in 2021 for inciting the riot at the US Capitol. Though he was acquitted by the Senate both times, 10 House Republicans broke with their party the second time around to join Democrats in a vote to impeach him. Seven Republican senators voted to convict him at his Senate trial.

Trump has also been the subject of a bevy of lawsuits and investigations, including a New York state investigation and a separate Manhattan district attorney criminal probe into his company’s finances, a Georgia county probe into his efforts to overturn Biden’s election win in the state, and separate Justice Department probes into his campaign’s scheme to put forth fake electors in battleground states and his decision to bring classified materials with him to Mar-a-Lago upon leaving office.

Trump’s actions since he left Washington have, for the most part, signaled his interest in an eventual return. While most former presidents go quietly into retirement – resurfacing to assist their parties during midterm cycles or for the opening of their presidential libraries – Trump bucked tradition to instead plot the comeback he now hopes to make. Despite its distance from Washington, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club has transformed into a new hub for Republicans and a home base for his political machine. Assisted by a small group of paid staffers, he has hosted numerous candidate and committee fundraisers and seen a rotating cast of party leaders and congressional hopefuls filter through its gilded hallways in the hopes of nabbing his endorsement or reingratiating themselves with his base. Trump’s schedule has enabled him to build close relationships with party leaders and fringe figures – from House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy of California to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia – whose support in a contested primary could ultimately help him clear the field. Many of the aides who have been with him since he left the White House are expected to continue on as campaign hands, as the former president and his de facto chief of staff, longtime Florida GOP strategist Wiles, aim to maintain a lean operation much like the early days of his 2016 presidential campaign. Among those who are likely to be involved are Wiles, Taylor Budowich, Chris LaCivita, Steven Cheung, Justin Caporale and Brian Jack. Brad Parscale, who managed part of Trump’s failed 2020 campaign will not be part of his 2024 operation, nor will Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who was deeply involved in his quest for reelection.

Time in office

As president, Trump faced criticism over several of his actions, especially his management of the worst public health crisis in nearly a century – the Covid-19 pandemic – though his administration helped facilitate the development of vaccines to treat the novel coronavirus in record time. He also was blasted by critics over his handling of Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in 2017; the White nationalist rally, also in 2017, in Charlottesville, Virginia, where Heather Heyer was killed while walking with a group of counterprotesters; and Black Lives Matter protests.

While in office, Trump signed sweeping tax cuts into law, enacted controversial hard-line immigration policies, including a policy that separated migrant children from their families and one known as “Remain in Mexico,” which the US Supreme Court ruled in June could be ended by his successor, and appointed hundreds of federal judges with deep conservative credentials. He also successfully nominated three Supreme Court justices, whose decisions this year as part of the court’s majority have shifted American society and laws rightward on issues such as abortion, guns, religious freedom and climate change.

The former real estate businessman and reality TV star was first elected to office in 2016, beating out a wide field of more than a dozen GOP candidates in an ugly primary, and then prevailing over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a contentious general election, despite sexual misconduct allegations that would have typically been campaign-ending.

As president, Trump was an impulsive leader, who dispensed with long-standing norms, often announcing policy and Cabinet personnel changes on Twitter. (He was ultimately banned from the platform following the US Capitol riot and was later barred from Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube as well.)

He pushed an “America First” foreign policy approach, pulling the US out of international agreements such as the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal, a pair of controversial moves that were decried by many of America’s top European allies.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story mistakenly said who was likely to be involved in the Trump campaign. Brad Parscale will not be involved in the 2024 operation. It has also been updated to correctly characterize former President Donald Trump’s position on paper ballots, fix the spelling of Justin Caporale and reflect additional developments.

Gaborr Kristen Holmes Veronica Stracqualursi