Questions about Donald Trump's campaign money, answered | CNN ...

CNN —

With his formal announcement of a third presidential bid, Donald Trump now will face new limits on raising and spending money ahead of the 2024 election.

But election lawyers and campaign finance experts said loopholes in federal election rules – and lax enforcement by federal regulators of existing laws – still offer the former president several potential routes to capitalize on the massive fundraising operation he and his aides have built since his 2020 loss.

How much money does Trump have?

A lot. Trump’s political operation, led by his leadership PAC Save America, is sitting on more than $100 million, according to the most recent filings with federal regulators.

Save America has been at the heart of Trump’s post-presidential fundraising. Leadership PACs are generally established as a way to allow political figures to support other candidates. But they also serve as campaigns-in-waiting for presidential contenders – funding travel and polling and paying the staff members who ultimately join a White House campaign.

Leadership PACs also can underwrite personal expenses.

Save America, for instance, has spent more than $8.5 million on legal expenses since the start of 2021 – with some of it going to firms defending Trump in personal legal matters, such as the sweeping lawsuit that New York Attorney General Letitia James brought in September, alleging fraud in the Trump Organization’s business practices. Trump has denied wrongdoing.

The former president’s close allies also recently established a super PAC, which can raise and spend unlimited sums but is barred from coordinating its activities with the candidates it supports.

Last month, Save America transferred $20 million to the new Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA Inc., with the goal of aiding Trump’s favored candidates in the midterms.

Political observers say that transfer might foreshadow one way Save America’s big war chest could benefit Trump’s candidacy in the months ahead.

When does Trump become a candidate for fundraising purposes?

Shortly before announcing his bid at his waterfront Mar-a-Lago estate Tuesday, Trump filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission formally establishing his candidacy and the Donald J. Trump for President 2024 campaign committee.

Campaign finance watchdogs argue that Trump has been skirting campaign finance laws for some time by talking and acting like a candidate without formally registering as one. (As far back as July 2021, for instance, Trump told Fox News that he had made up his mind about another presidential bid. And he repeatedly hinted at his intentions in public statements in the months after.)

But with Tuesday’s formal declaration, Trump must comply with limits on the size and sources of his contributions. A federal candidate cannot accept money directly from a corporation or a labor union, for instance.

And, currently, an individual can only contribute $2,900 to a federal candidate for the primary or general election. (That contribution limit, indexed to inflation, will rise for the 2023-2024 election cycle. Federal regulators will announce the new contribution limits early next year.)

And, as a candidate, any money Trump spends to advance his White House ambitions – whether it’s for travel to an early primary state or ads touting his achievements – becomes official campaign expenditures and needs to come out of his campaign account.

“He can’t use any of his PACs to fly around the country and give speeches,” said Richard Briffault, an expert on campaign finance regulation and a professor at Columbia Law School.

And in stark contrast to leadership PACs, campaign committees cannot underwrite personal expenses.

So, is Trump cut off from using the funds he’s raised?

Yes and no, experts say.

Trump can’t simply dump all the money raised by his leadership PAC or an affiliated super PAC into his campaign account. That’s because his campaign committee is subject to strict fundraising limits that don’t apply to those PACs.

But there are other ways the money Trump has amassed can still advance his candidacy.

Larry Noble, a former top lawyer with the Federal Election Commission, thinks federal law is pretty clear: Candidates aren’t allowed to take a big pot of so-called soft money – funds that exceed the candidate contribution limits – and plow it into an entity that’s set up to help them get elected.

But he says the FEC – whose six members often deadlock along partisan lines – has set a high bar for even opening an investigation into potential violations.

As a result, Noble said, there’s probably little to stop a leadership PAC such as Save America from transferring money to a third party – such as a super PAC or a political “dark money” nonprofit group – to run what would look like an independent effort to help Trump, Noble said.

Under the standard set by some commissioners, “you’d have to show evidence that the money was transferred at the candidate’s direction with the idea that it would be spent to help his campaign and show his involvement in the ads and that type of thing,” he added.

On Monday, the nonpartisan watchdog Campaign Legal Center said it had filed a complaint with the FEC, alleging that Trump already has violated campaign finance law by transferring $20 million last month from Save America into the MAGA Inc. super PAC. The group argues the super PAC’s spending is likely to benefit Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Trump’s aides did not respond to CNN’s inquiries about the complaint. And an FEC spokesman declined to comment, citing the agency’s standard policy of not discussing pending legal matters.

It’s far from clear whether the complaint will gain any traction within the FEC. In addition to frequent deadlocks, the agency moves at a slow pace, often ruling years after a complaint is first lodged.

In July, the Democratic group American Bridge sued the commission in an attempt to force the agency to take action on its complaint against Trump. The group had filed an FEC complaint four months earlier, alleging that Trump had broken federal law by raising and spending large sums to promote a likely presidential bid without formally declaring his candidacy.

Given the FEC inaction on many enforcement matters, some election lawyers said Trump would run little risk of trouble if Save America transferred another big sum into MAGA Inc. or into another super PAC actively supporting his candidacy.

“If I were in his position, I’d give the money to a super PAC and have the super PAC spend it,” said one Republican election lawyer, who asked not to be identified because of his ongoing work with GOP political committees. Given that the leadership PAC already has transferred $20 million, “what difference would it make if you give $50 (million) more?”

“Even if the FEC were to find that it’s not permissible – which I don’t believe they will, but even if they did – they aren’t going to fine him millions of dollars,” the lawyer added.

How else could Trump use his existing political operation?

Political observers also said the operation Trump has built since leaving the White House can aid his 2024 candidacy in other ways.

The former president’s relentless fundraising over the last two years has established a small-dollar donor list that’s “constantly updated,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former spokesman for the Republican National Committee.

The new campaign has established a Save America joint fundraising committee, its filings show – giving it access to Trump’s established donor contact list.

“It’s the largest political donor list in the world,” Heye said. “It gives him the ability to raise a lot of money very quickly.”

And because Trump is launching a new campaign, it allows donors who already have contributed the maximum amount to his Save America leadership PAC to start fresh with donations to his 2024 bid.

The Trump campaign began to ask for those contributions before he had left the announcement stage Tuesday night, with a text message blasted out to supporters, urging them to “Become a 2024 Presidential Founder.”

This story has been updated with additional reporting.

Spending by Trump's Save America PAC surges amid legal battles ...

CNN —

Spending by Donald Trump’s Save America PAC surged in August to more than $6.3 million – its highest monthly total of the year – as the former President waged court battles over the FBI’s search of his waterfront Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

More than $3.8 million of that money – or more than $6 out of $10 spent by Trump’s leadership PAC last month – went to legal fees, according to filings Tuesday night with the Federal Election Commission. The largest legal expense was a single payment of $3 million to the trust account of a West Palm Beach, Florida, law firm.

CNN has previously reported that the PAC advanced Trump’s attorney Chris Kise a $3 million upfront payment to cover the former Florida solicitor general’s legal fees.

The PAC’s post-election fundraising has come under intense scrutiny in recent weeks. CNN reported earlier this month that a federal grand jury had issued subpoenas that seek information related to the formation, fundraising and expenditures of Save America.

Leadership PACs, fundraising tools to help politicians support other candidates, operate under looser rules than committees tied to active candidates – giving Trump the leeway to use donors’ money for personal expenses if he chooses. The PAC’s spending on legal fees in August was four times what it spent on legal expenses the previous month – as the former President, who has not been charged with a crime, faces increasing legal concerns.

The new filings show Save America made one large federal contribution last month, sending $150,000 on August 3 to Wyoming Values – a super PAC that worked to defeat a top Trump target, Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney.

Cheney, one of Trump’s fiercest critics on Capitol Hill, lost the Republican primary to Trump-backed Harriet Hageman on August 16.

Trump’s PAC entered September with more than $92 million in cash reserves, according to the new filings – one of the healthier bank accounts in GOP politics. By comparison, the National Republican Senatorial Committee – the GOP fundraising arm charged with flipping the Senate – started September and the sprint to Election Day with just $16 million remaining in the bank.

Trump has faced public pressure to provide more financial help to Republican Senate candidates, some of whom are struggling to compete financially with their Democratic rivals ahead of November’s general election. In Arizona, for instance, Trump-endorsed political newcomer Blake Masters had raised nearly $5 million through the end of June, the most recent candidate filings show, while Sen. Mark Kelly, the Democrat he’s trying to unseat, had collected $54 million.

In an email to CNN on Tuesday night, Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich said the former President “has been completely invested in seeing his endorsed candidates win.”

And he said Trump’s frequent rallies for candidates “serve as the most powerful political weapon in American politics” and “bring out new voters and invaluable media attention that propel candidates to victory on Election Day.”

Trump is scheduled to hold a rally Friday in Wilmington, North Carolina, to support his slate of endorsed candidates there.

But some Republican strategists are questioning the value of those events after a recent rally in Ohio, where Trump crudely mocked the candidate he had endorsed in the US Senate contest, GOP nominee J.D. Vance, as desperate for his support.

Most candidates would “much rather have somebody come in with a lot of money to drive home your message, rather than a one-day event where you can’t control what the main attraction is going to say,” said Doug Heye, a veteran Republican strategist and former spokesman for the Republican National Committee.

With control of the Senate on the line, deep-pocketed Republican groups have stepped up to fill the gap, including the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It has committed to spending more than $185 million on Senate contests. (The McConnell-aligned super PAC announced Tuesday that it was pulling its remaining ad reservations for the month of October out of Arizona, citing increased spending by other Republican groups, including Our American Century.)

New filings with the Federal Election Commission show Las Vegas casino mogul Steve Wynn donated $10 million to Our American Century last month.

That committee has spent nearly $7 million in key states – including advertising to aid Republican Mehmet Oz’s Senate bid in Pennsylvania and to oppose several Democratic senators seeking reelection.

Trump PACs paid $2 million this year to law firms representing ...

Washington CNN —

Former President Donald Trump’s political committees have paid nearly $2.2 million this year to six law firms whose attorneys have represented witnesses before the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, insurrection, a CNN review of new campaign filings shows.

The biggest recipient of payments from Trump’s political committees is Elections, LLC, a firm that employs several former Trump campaign lawyers and former White House lawyer Stefan Passantino, who at one point represented a key hearing witness, Cassidy Hutchinson. Passantino hasn’t answered CNN’s previous questions about his representation of Hutchinson.

Elections LLC has received more than $1.6 million this year, including $1 million that Trump’s Make America Great Again PAC paid in May to an entity called, E LLC Iolta, which shares a Washington, DC, address with the firm, a recent filing shows.

The Daily Beast first reported the $1 million May payment to E LLC Iolta. CNN has requested comment from Elections, LLC.

The CNN tally examined legal fees paid in this calendar year by the Make America Great Again PAC and Trump’s main political vehicle, Save America PAC. The filings do not show which specific lawyers in the firm received payments, and the filings don’t explain what the law firms did for the Trump committees beyond the broad description of “legal consulting” or “legal expenses.”

It’s impossible to tell from the filings with the Federal Election Commission whether payments to these firms specifically covered work representing witnesses before the January 6 committee.

Law firms represent key players

Other firms paid by Trump-aligned committees include Abel Bean Law, which has represented current Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich, and JPRowley Law, which has represented conservative lawyer and Trump ally Cleta Mitchell, as well as former White House adviser Peter Navarro, one of the President’s fiercest supporters.

Navarro has been indicted on contempt of Congress charges for failing to comply with the January 6 committee’s subpoena. He pleaded not guilty.

Abel Bean has been paid more than $241,000 this year by Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America.

In a statement to CNN, Abel Bean Law co-founder Michael Abel would not confirm or deny that the money was used for January 6 witnesses.

“In circumstances in which a third party may pay all or some of the legal fees on behalf of a client we are representing, we provide independent legal advice to our client, we are loyal to our client, and we always serve our client’s best interests,” Abel told CNN.

CNN has confirmed that the work of one firm, Garber Group, is tied to the January 6 committee. According to federal records, that firm got more than $91,000 from Trump’s political groups this year.

“The PACs are paying The Garber Group for the legal fees of witnesses who have cooperated with the committee’s investigation,” a source familiar with the matter told CNN.

The law firm of Timothy Parlatore, who represents Bernard Kerik, the former New York City police commissioner who has been deposed by the committee, has been paid $25,000 by Trump’s Save America PAC. Parlatore told CNN that the payments to his firm were not used to pay for legal services connected to the panel’s investigation, but declined to say what they were used for.

“I am a private lawyer and I get paid for doing legal work,” Parlatore said in an interview. “This is not on behalf of me representing anybody before the January 6 committee.”

CNN also has requested comment from JPRowley Law, which has received more than $97,000 in payments this year from the Trump committees.

The moves by Trump’s political organization to open his substantial post-presidency war chest to witnesses involved in the January 6 probe have raised questions about the former President’s ability to influence testimony as the panel delves into his conduct.

Jan. 6 panel members raise questions

CNN has previously reported that Trump’s team also has been involved in discussions about a legal defense fund, created by the nonprofit arm of the American Conservative Union, to support aides targeted by the House panel. ACU chairman Matt Schlapp said he has worked with the former President’s aides to determine which individuals subpoenaed by the select committee should receive help from the fund.

“We talked about the hundreds of millions of dollars that the former President raised,” California Rep. Zoe Lofgren, a Democrat who sits on the committee, told CNN recently. “Some of that money is being used to pay for lawyers for witnesses. And it’s not clear that that arrangement is one that is without coercion potential for some of those witnesses.”

Some January 6 committee members have singled out the legal representation of Hutchinson, a former White House aide who changed lawyers in early June. After the switch, Hutchinson ramped up her cooperation with the panel and delivered bombshell testimony about the former President’s conduct on January 6 at an in-person hearing.

Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, a member of the committee, called Hutchinson “an important example of one who decided to get a new lawyer and then to come back and to testify.”

“If there are witnesses out there who believe that their lawyer is working cross-purposes with their obligation to tell the truth, they should work to rectify it,” the Maryland Democrat told CNN’s Jake Tapper.

Fredreka Schouten Marshall Cohen Devan Cole Hannah Rabinowitz Zachary Cohen

'That certainly didn't help': GOP blame game spreads after midterm ...

Trump allies launch new super PAC to bolster GOP candidates in ...

Washington CNN —

Several top allies of Donald Trump will launch a new super PAC to buoy Republican candidates who have earned the former President’s support in the midterm elections, CNN has learned, following months of minimal spending by Trump-aligned groups that has frustrated party strategists left to fill the void.

Called MAGA, Inc., the new group will meld with an existing Trump-sanctioned super PAC that has been mostly overseen by former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi and former US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell. As of last month, that group had spent slightly more than $2 million to boost Trump-backed Senate and House candidates in their primary races earlier this year.

“President Trump is committed to saving America, and Make America Great Again, Inc. will ensure that is achieved at the ballot box in November and beyond,” Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich said in a statement Friday.

Budowich has been charged with running the new super PAC, along with former Trump campaign aide Steven Cheung, who will serve as its communications director; longtime Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio; veteran GOP operative Chris LaCivita, who will become the group’s chief strategist; and Sergio Gor, whose conservative publishing outfit released Trump’s first post-presidential book last year (a collection of White House and campaign trail photographs) and will serve as a senior adviser to MAGA, Inc. Alex Pfeiffer, a former producer for Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, will also join the operation.

The newest Trump fundraising vehicle was first reported by Politico.

With the November elections fast approaching, Trump has been under pressure to dip into his own mountain of cash to support candidates who he helped prevail in competitive primaries but who are now trailing or running close to their Democratic opponents. The former President, who has complained to allies in recent weeks about the Senate contests in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Arizona, had around $103 million in his coffers at the end of August, according to campaign finance reports from his leadership PAC, Save America, and the Bondi-run group.

People familiar with the matter said most of those funds will be transferred to MAGA, Inc., which is expected to start spending as soon as next week in key midterm races.

“He’s very concerned about Pennsylvania,” said a person who spoke to Trump recently and requested anonymity for fear of retribution. “We were talking about Pennsylvania and [GOP Senate hopeful Mehmet] Oz had been quoted as saying he would have voted to certify the 2020 election and the President is saying, ‘Now, why would he have done that?’ ”

This same person said Trump has also expressed concern about Senate candidate J.D. Vance, who is facing an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio. “He really likes J.D. but Ohio is a little too close for comfort.”

Until now, Trump has refused to open the spigots much to help his handpicked candidates in their general election contests. While Save America gave $1 million to a pro-Oz PAC just before the Pennsylvania primary, the former President has not contributed financially to the Republican Senate hopeful since then. In Ohio, Save America wrote a $5,000 check to the Vance campaign in June.

Trump aides have long insisted that his spending is supplemented by the campaign rallies and fundraisers he has held to benefit various Republicans – including recent rallies in both Pennsylvania and Ohio – along with his coveted endorsement, which helped many of his chosen candidates prevail in contested primaries earlier this year. But others say the lack of financial assistance from the former President shouldn’t be discounted.

“Trump never went out of his way to help candidates – unless he sees a way that it helps him. His camp says, ‘Well, he’s helping them by doing these events,’ which I would say aren’t actually that helpful because you never know whether Trump is going to insult the candidate,” said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee. At his recent rally in Ohio, Trump told the crowd that Vance “is kissing my ass” to maintain his support.

Overall, federal records show that Trump’s main fundraising vehicle, Save America, has contributed more than $8.4 million to candidates and committees at the federal, state and local level since January 2021 – a significant sum, but virtually nothing compared to what other major Republican groups have committed and only about $1.4 million more than what the former President has spent on legal fees this cycle (nearly $7 million). The pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund is spending about $205 million on advertisements in Senate races this cycle, per a CNN analysis, which includes what the group has already spent and its ad reservations over the next month. Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, is planning to spend $141 million this fall on ads alone.

A person familiar with the new Trump group said it will spend “heavily” in key Senate, congressional and gubernatorial races this fall. Trump is likely to give preferential treatment to candidates he’s previously endorsed, and the group will focus most of its spending on TV advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts, said a person close to Trump.

The group had been in the planning stages for several months and could become part of his campaign apparatus if he launches a third presidential bid, as is widely expected.

”I don’t think anyone’s expecting Trump to spend every single penny he has but there will be a significant investment moving forward,” said the person close to Trump.

After months of eyeing a pre-midterm launch date for a 2024 campaign, Trump is now waiting to see how Republicans perform in November – hoping to avoid blame if the party’s overall gains prove disappointing.

“He’s been convinced there’s no upside to doing it before the midterms and plenty of potential downsides. Right now, the goal is Q1 of next year but, of course, once the election has passed, he could really do it at any time,” a Trump adviser said.

Gaborr Dan Merica Fredreka Schouten
Dan Merica
Fredreka Schouten

What a third White House campaign might mean for Donald Trump ...

CNN —

The stark video that former President Donald Trump shared on his Truth Social platform this week following the FBI search of his Florida estate had all the makings of a traditional presidential campaign ad.

It melded Trump’s words decrying high inflation and a messy US withdrawal from Afghanistan with videos of violent crime and war.

“But soon, we will have greatness again,” Trump intoned.

The video is just one recent example of the former President hinting broadly at a 2024 campaign without formally declaring a bid for the White House. But even as Trump’s allies urge him to speed up a campaign announcement in an effort to blunt his deepening legal troubles, moving forward could constrain his ability to tap into the vast war chest he has amassed since leaving the White House, campaign finance experts say.

Here’s a look at Trump’s fundraising operations and some of the regulatory and legal hurdles he could face as he plots a third presidential campaign:

How is Trump currently raising money?

The former President controls a well-funded political operation that includes a super PAC – which can raise and spend unlimited sums – along with several traditional political action committees.

At the heart of Trump’s political operation is Save America, the leadership PAC that he established within days of losing the presidential election in November 2020 that collected massive sums in the waning days of his administration.

Although Trump’s fundraising pace has slowed some in 2022, Save America ended June with more than $103 million remaining in its cash reserves, according to its latest filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

That’s an unprecedented stockpile of political money for a former president and amounts to nearly three times the cash that the Republican National Committee had remaining in its coffers at June’s end.

As he did during his presidency, Trump has relied on small-dollar donations to fuel his political operation.

And he continues to bombard his supporters daily with pleas for cash. One text used the recent FBI search at his Mar-a-Lago estate to ask supporters to “rush in a donation IMMEDIATELY to publicly stand with President Trump against this NEVERENDING WITCH HUNT!”

Declaring a third run likely would super-charge Trump’s fundraising – although it risks drawing attention and money away from other Republicans on the ballot in this fall’s midterm elections.

Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, has cautioned against any presidential contender stepping on the midterms.

“I would say to any candidate, let’s not skip over what is going to be one of the most important and consequential midterms in our country’s history,” McDaniel said recently on Fox. “We need to get behind these House candidates and these Senate candidates and make sure we win in November.”

How do leadership PACs and super PACs differ from presidential campaign committees?

Super PACs can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, unions and corporations and must operate independently of the candidates they support. Presidential campaigns, however, are barred from accepting union and corporate money and face strict contribution caps.

Leadership PACs also face contribution limits. They are generally established to allow politicians to support other candidates. But over the years, they’ve become campaigns-in-waiting for presidential contenders – providing a source of political contributions to pay staffers, underwrite travel and other political expenses.

The rules on spending by leadership PACs are far more relaxed than those for campaign committees. The FEC does not restrict politicians from using donors’ contributions to leadership PACs to pay personal bills.

How would a campaign affect payments for Trump’s mounting legal expenses?

As a presidential contender, Trump’s spending would face heightened scrutiny because it is “illegal to convert campaign money to the personal use of the candidate,” said Adav Noti, a former Federal Election Commission lawyer who is senior vice president and legal director of the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center

It would violate campaign finance laws, for instance, for Trump to use donations to his presidential campaign to pay legal fees for personal or business matters that are not directly related to his candidacy, such as the New York attorney general’s civil investigation into the Trump Organization’s finances, Noti added.

But money raised by Trump’s presidential campaign could pay legal bills connected to his conduct as a candidate or officeholder, said Richard Briffault, a Columbia Law School professor and an expert on campaign finance law.

The Republican National Committee has paid some of Trump’s fees related to the New York probe, citing his role as “a leader of our party.” But an RNC official recently told CNN that those payments are expected to end should he become a 2024 candidate, under the party’s “neutrality policy.”

Can Trump use Save America’s money to run a traditional presidential campaign?

For the most part, no.

Save America cannot transfer unlimited sums directly into his campaign coffers. As a general rule, PACs cannot donate more than $10,000 over a two-year election cycle to any single candidate.

“We’ve never had a former president with a leadership PAC before, much less with nine figures sitting in it,” Noti said. “But the law, at least, is clear that it can’t go to the campaign.”

Could Trump transfer the millions in Save America to a super PAC that backs his candidacy?

Noti argues that rolling Save America’s money into a super PAC also would be prohibited if the super PAC is focused solely on advancing Trump’s presidential ambitions.

But other election law experts say a candidate might push the envelope.

For instance, a recent 3-3 deadlock at the FEC – in a case that turned on whether Florida Rep. Byron Donalds had broken campaign laws aimed at keeping big pots of money at the state level out of a federal super PAC – could provide a blueprint for a candidate to move leadership money to a super PAC.

Transferring a candidate’s leadership PAC money into a super PAC that benefits that candidate “clearly violates the intentions” of the law, Briffault said, but “it’s not clear that anyone would blow the whistle on that.”

And Fred Wertheimer, of the Democracy 21 watchdog group, said with the FEC’s six-member panel often deadlocked, “There’s no enforcement.”

When does Trump become a candidate?

Trump has not declared his candidacy and has not filed any paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to register as a 2024 presidential contender.

But campaign finance watchdogs argue that Trump has been skirting campaign finance laws for some time by talking and acting like a candidate without formally registering as one and complying with federal fundraising and spending limits.

Just consider his public statements: Back in February at the Conservative Political Action Conference Trump said of another presidential campaign: “We did it twice and we’ll do it again. … We’re going to be doing it again a third time.”

And, as CNN’s Melanie Zanona reported, Trump told a group of House Republicans attending a dinner at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club recently that he’s “made up his mind” about launching a 2024 presidential bid and it’s just a matter of “when” he announces it, according to one attendee, Indiana Rep. Jim Banks.

“If you walk like a duck, sound like a duck, are a duck, you are supposed to register as a candidate,” said Stephen Spaulding, a former Federal Election Commission lawyer who is now senior counsel for policy at the watchdog group Common Cause.

Trump has “clearly bent over backwards to hint about what his intentions are,” Spaulding said.

Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich did not answer a question from CNN about the former President’s potential announcement and said he failed “to see the news value of the opinions of leftist campaign finance ‘experts’ or Democrat-funded organizations.”

Politicians often delay their announcements because they lose their ability to coordinate activities with super PACs and other outside organizations once they formally become a candidate, experts say.

“What we’ve seen over the last several election cycles is candidates basically pretend they are not candidates,” Noti said, “so they can get their super PACs and their outside (groups) up and running.”

A Democratic super PAC, American Bridge 21st Century, has pressed regulators at the Federal Election Commission to take Trump to task for his all-but-declared candidacy, with no success.

Last month, American Bridge filed a federal lawsuit in an effort to force agency action, but it appears unlikely the case will be resolved in time to influence the 2024 election.

Trump's Save America PAC paying legal bills for witnesses in Mar-a ...

Washingtonn CNN —

Donald Trump’s Save America PAC has been footing the legal bills for additional Trump aides and allies whom federal investigators have subpoenaed for grand jury testimony as part of investigations surrounding the former president, sources familiar with the matter tell CNN.

The political action committee has paid more than $120,000 to the Brand Woodward Law firm, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

The firm represents a number of Trump associates who have appeared before a grand jury in Washington, DC, or spoken with investigators as part of the Justice Department’s investigation into the handling of government documents seized from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate after he left the White House.

Save America has helped pay legal bills for Kash Patel, a Trump adviser who testified last month before the federal grand jury, and Walt Nauta, a former military aide in the Trump White House who has been interviewed by federal investigators about the former president’s retention of classified documents, one source said. Nauta is now an aide with the former president at his Palm Beach property, and his salary is paid by Trump’s leadership PAC.

A Patel spokesman said at the time of his grand jury appearance that “his testimony was compelled over his objection through the only legal means available to the government – a grant of limited immunity.” Nauta’s attorney, Stanley Woodward Jr. of the Brand Woodward firm, has declined to comment.

Another source familiar with the matter tells CNN that other key players in Trump’s orbit who are being represented by Brand Woodward include Will Russell and Beau Harrison. Save America has helped to cover some of their legal bills as well, another source said.

Last week, Russell and Harrison each appeared in front of a grand jury investigating the Mar-a-Lago document matter, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. Their attorney declined to comment at the time.

The firm declined to comment to CNN about the payments, which were first reported by The Washington Post. Stan Brand, a top lawyer at the firm, told the Post there is nothing wrong with Trump’s PAC paying legal bills for witnesses.

“There’s no bar against third parties paying for legal fees as long as it’s disclosed to the client. The ethical obligation of the lawyer is to the client,” Brand said. “This is a tempest in a teapot and another cheap shot at these people because of who they work for.”

But Ty Cobb, a former Trump White House attorney, said the arrangement could raise bias questions down the road for any Trump aides whose attorney fees have been covered by Save America PAC.

“There are ways this can be done legally. In fact, it’s a very common practice in corporate America for companies to pay for the outside legal expenses off employees who are called to testify in matters related to the company. But if can always be used on the stand to show bias,” Cobb said. “It’s a very common practice fraught with danger. Let’s say somebody testifies unfavorably for Trump and he cuts them off. That can be brought out at trial as evidence of bias.”

CNN previously reported that the Trump’s political committees have paid more than $2 million this year to a half dozen law firms whose attorneys have represented witnesses before the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, insurrection.

Lawyers, Arizona candidates, Smithsonian portraits: How Trump's ...

More than $1 million went to a production firm Event Strategies, Inc.

In the weeks before the Arizona primary, Save America backed a new state-level PAC.

Save America spent nearly $1 million on legal consulting in July.

Former President Donald Trump’s fundraising machine, his massive fortune used to wield his political influence as he weighs another White House run, spent almost $4 million in the month of July, leaving it with just over $99 million in the bank.

A report filed Saturday night with the Federal Election Commission details how Save America, Trump’s leadership fund with loose spending restrictions, spent its money in the month of July.

Save America registered with the FEC days after Trump lost the 2020 election and has raised more than $100 million. The PAC has received money through fundraising efforts that spread false claims about the election and the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago.

Save America PAC pays $3 million to Trump lawyer | CNN Politics

CNN —

The Save America PAC has advanced former President Donald Trump’s attorney Chris Kise $3 million in an upfront payment to cover his legal fees, a person familiar with the arrangement told CNN.

Kise, a former Florida solicitor general, joined Trump’s legal team last month to help the former President as he waged a court battle following the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago, his Florida residence and resort.

The addition of Kise was viewed as a significant boost to Trump’s legal team. The former President has had difficulty finding high-caliber lawyers to represent him given his history of stiffing attorneys and business partners and not following legal advice.

It took two weeks before Trump’s lawyers formally waded into the legal fight over the search warrant, despite publicly calling for the warrant and affidavit to be unsealed. And when they finally did, their motion had numerous legal flaws and drew criticism from legal experts on both sides of the aisle.

Kise left law firm Foley & Lardner, where he had worked for over a decade, to take on the assignment.

Politico first reported the $3 million payment.

Trump has previously used the PAC, which was formed days after the 2020 presidential election, to cover some of his legal fees.

The former President’s legal troubles have only grown as the Justice Department has launched a wide ranking investigation into the election. In the past week, the DOJ sent more than 30 subpoenas to people associated with Trump, the campaign and post-election efforts.

Some of the subpoenas, including one reviewed by CNN, were broad in scope, seeking information on a range of issues, including the fake elector scheme, Trump’s primary fundraising and political vehicle, Save America PAC, the organizing of the Trump rally on January 6, and any communications with a broad list of people who worked to overturn the 2020 election results.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing and said he does not expect to be indicted.

A source close to the former President previously told CNN that Trump has posed questions about a potential indictment to members of his inner circle.

Another adviser acknowledged that while Trump has certainly been in legal peril before, including while he was president, this seems different and potentially more dangerous, particularly because he no longer has the legal protections afforded to the executive office.

Kara Scannell Paul Leblanc
Kara Scannell
Paul Leblanc

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics

CNN —

The race for the House is tilting strongly toward the GOP, but the struggle for Senate control is still very much a slog that could go either way, even as late-breaking national winds favor the party out of power.

Every race will matter on Election Day as Republicans look to win control of the evenly divided chamber and severely curtail the second half of President Joe Biden’s term.

Democrats have a shot in large part because the battleground states on the Senate map were mostly won by Biden in 2020, albeit narrowly. And even though Biden is deeply unpopular in many of those states two years later, Democratic incumbents and challengers amassed massive sums of money that allowed them to run on their own brands throughout the summer while their Republican opponents limped out of contentious primaries. This is where the nitty-gritty of campaign spending makes a difference: Candidates get more favorable advertising rates than the super PACs and outside groups that have had to come in and make up the difference for some Donald Trump-backed GOP nominees with lackluster fundraising.

More on key Senate races Herschel Walker allies want more ‘Trumpian response’ to abortion allegation Kelly warns ‘wheels’ could ‘come off our democracy’ while Masters tries to tie him to Biden in Arizona Senate debate Could Republicans lose a Senate race in deep-red Utah? See Senate race ratings by Inside Elections

Democrats’ challenge in the final days of the midterm elections is getting their base to turn out and persuading those remaining undecided voters – especially those who voted for Biden two years ago but are dissatisfied with him today – to stick with the president’s party. That’ll be easier said than done. Just 41% of US adults approved of Biden’s performance, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released Wednesday. And Republican voters expressed greater engagement with this year’s midterms than Democrats across multiple questions gauging voters’ likelihood to vote.

That president’s party often loses seats in Congress during the first midterms of a new administration, and lower Democratic enthusiasm would suggest we’re on track for history to repeat itself. The enthusiasm gap (favoring Republicans by 14 points) is similar to the partisan gap in CNN’s polling from 2010, when Republicans gained seats in the first midterm of Barack Obama’s presidency.

This year’s key issues for voters would also seem to advantage Republicans. More than half of likely voters in CNN’s new poll identified the economy and inflation – a central component of GOP attack ads – as the most important factor in their vote for Congress. The Supreme Court’s late June ruling overturning Roe v. Wade injected uncertainty into the political landscape, with a majority of Americans disapproving of that decision. But only 15% of likely voters in CNN’s poll said abortion was the most important issue determining their vote. More broadly, nearly three-quarters of Americans think things in the country are going badly.

And yet, what’s keeping this cycle interesting is the unpredictability and relative messiness of the Senate map – with races sometimes moving in different directions. Despite Republicans picking up momentum across the country, for example, the seat most likely to flip is a GOP-held seat, not a Democratic-held one. Pennsylvania – where GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring – tops the list, as it has since CNN first started compiling these rankings at the start of the cycle in early 2021. Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising and advertising data, and polling, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. And two other GOP-held open seats – North Carolina and Ohio – have proved to be surprisingly competitive for Democrats this year, even if they’re much less likely to flip.

But the race that could matter more than any other is a seat Democrats flipped last year. If neither candidate receives a majority of the vote in Georgia on November 8, the race will advance to a December 6 runoff. And if Senate control hinges on the Peach State – as it did in 2020 – we’ll have to wait another month to learn which party holds the majority.

1. Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)

Sarah Silbiger/Pool/Getty Images

The Keystone State rounds out the cycle where it began – as the Senate seat most likely to flip. The race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey represents Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. Biden narrowly won the commonwealth in 2020, after Trump had carried it in 2016, making it a pivotal battleground for the midterms and the next presidential contest.

The Senate race has tightened as Republican Mehmet Oz consolidates support from Republicans after making it through a nasty primary with Trump’s endorsement. Democrat John Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor, held a slim lead over the celebrity surgeon in a recent New York Times/Siena poll. But that was notably conducted in large part before their late October debate, when the visible effects of Fetterman’s May stroke raised some concern, even among his supporters, that he might not be able to win over undecided voters. Still, only 3% of voters in a new Monmouth University poll said the debate had caused them to reconsider their choice in the race. And 39% of registered voters in a Fox News survey taken after the debate said they were concerned Fetterman wasn’t healthy enough to do the job effectively – a 5-point increase since that question was asked in September – compared with 58% who weren’t concerned.

Democrats, meanwhile, have seized on Oz’s comments during the debate that the discussion over abortion should be left to “women, doctors, local political leaders,” with Senate Majority PAC using it to link him to GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, who’s trailing in his race. Fetterman stood at 50% to Oz’s 46% among likely voters in a CNN Poll of Polls, which averages four most recent surveys that meet CNN’s standards, including the Times/Siena poll and others conducted mostly before the debate.

The good news for Fetterman, even as his own negatives have gone up, is that Oz’s negatives remain relatively high – 17% of Republicans and more than half of independents had an unfavorable view of the celebrity surgeon in the Times survey – and the Democrat continues to outpace Oz on the question of which candidate understands the concerns of everyday Pennsylvanians, according to the Monmouth survey. Biden and former President Barack Obama are rallying with Fetterman in Philadelphia on the final weekend before Election Day – the rare competitive Senate battleground that’s playing host to the president.

2. Nevada

Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto

CNN

The supremacy of voters’ economic concerns is bad news for Democrats in Nevada. The state has been hard hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and average gas prices remain near $5 a gallon. Furthermore, Nevada’s transient population makes it tough for first-term incumbents to establish a strong brand. That’s complicating Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s key task – winning over voters dissatisfied with Biden and the direction of the country. Her favorability rating stood at 39% among likely voters in the New York Times/Siena poll (the same as GOP challenger Adam Laxalt’s), which was about on par with the percentage of likely voters who approved of Biden’s job performance. However, her share of the vote in recent polling is above Biden’s approval rating, giving Democrats confidence that she has a path to overperform the president. Cortez Masto and Laxalt were tied at 47% in the Times poll – a similar finding to a recent CBS poll and CNN polling from early October, which showed no clear leader.

Republicans are blaming Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator, for a litany of concerns – from higher inflation to “chaos at the border” – all with the message that she’s a “rubber stamp” for Biden. Cortez Masto and Democrats have attacked Laxalt over abortion – although he says he does not support a national ban and has pointed out that the right to an abortion is settled law in Nevada. They’ve also tried tying Laxalt – a former state attorney general and the grandson of the former governor and senator with the same last name – to Trump and highlighted his efforts, as Trump’s Nevada campaign co-chair, in the filing of lawsuits related to the 2020 election. But perhaps in a recognition that economic concerns outweigh abortion or democracy as issues that are important to voters, Democrats – including Obama, who rallied the party faithful in Nevada on Tuesday – have tried to flip the script on higher gas prices, blaming them on corporations and tying Laxalt to “big oil.”

3. Georgia

Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock

Megan Varner/Getty Images

No race has seen more drama in the last month than Georgia, where Trump’s hand-picked candidate, Herschel Walker, is facing allegations from two women that he urged them to get abortions, which he has denied. But the accusations, which have played into the Democratic narrative about the retired football star being a hypocrite, don’t seem to have done much damage to his standing in the race against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who’s seeking a full six-year term. After at first steering clear of the allegations, Warnock used them in a recent ad against his opponent. But the New York Times/Siena poll showed no clear leader, which was a tightening from a Quinnipiac University survey conducted after news of the first allegation that had given Warnock a 7-point lead.

Warnock continues to enjoy stronger favorability ratings than his GOP challenger, whose image is underwater. The Democrat’s favorability ratings are also higher than Biden’s approval – a potentially significant separation in a state the president flipped by less than half a point in 2020. But the gubernatorial race in Georgia could help carry Walker across the finish line with GOP Gov. Brian Kemp appearing to have the advantage over Democrat Stacey Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest. Where that finish line is, though, remains to be seen – if neither Senate nominee surpasses 50% of the vote on November 8, the top two finishers will advance to a December 6 runoff.

4. Wisconsin

Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson

Leigh VogelPool/Getty Images

As the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state Biden won in 2020, Sen. Ron Johnson is the chamber’s most vulnerable GOP incumbent. A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday showed no clear leader in the race between Johnson and Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes – similar to a CNN survey from mid October – which is comparable to the close governor’s race.

The race seems to have moved in the GOP’s favor since the summer when Barnes emerged from the August primary relatively unscathed after his opponents had dropped out beforehand. Republicans sought to define Barnes after Labor Day with a blitz of advertising, particularly hitting him over crime and his past support for redirecting funding from police. (Barnes has called it a “lie” that he supports defunding the police.) Democrats have tried to turn the crime argument back on Johnson by pointing to some of the statements he has made downplaying the January 6 insurrection and trying to use Johnson’s past remarks on Social Security against him.

Biden only carried Wisconsin by less than half a point in 2020, so it’s still a tough state, with an even tougher national political environment for Barnes. Independents, for example, were breaking for Johnson in the Marquette survey (53% to 46% among likely voters), and 68% of registered voters said they were “very concerned” about an inflation – an issue that favors Republicans. Barnes was polling at 48% in the Marquette poll, slightly lower than Biden’s percentage of the Wisconsin vote in 2020. That’s one reason why Obama, who received a higher 53% in the state in 2012 while winning a second term, rallied with Barnes in the final weeks of the campaign.

5. Arizona

Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly

Courtney Pedroza/Getty Images

The race between Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters has also narrowed – a Fox News poll released Tuesday shows no clear leader with Masters picking up support from Republicans. But Kelly, who won a 2020 special election and is running for a full six-year term, has proved a much more resilient Democrat to tarnish than some of the GOP’s other targets. That has kept this race – in a purple state Biden won by less than half a point – more competitive for Democrats than it probably should be given the national environment. (A CNN poll and the Times/Siena poll both gave him a 6-point lead over Masters.) A retired astronaut with impressive fundraising totals, Kelly has tried to distance himself from his party on immigration – as he did during their debate last month – and largely had the airwaves to himself to sell that message.

Masters is getting some late help from other Republican spenders – including Trump’s super PAC and the political arm of the Club for Growth – after the Senate Leadership Fund had to cut its spending here to divert resources to other states. A venture capitalist who has the backing of both Trump and Peter Thiel, Masters tried to dial back some of his more extreme rhetoric on abortion and election denialism after winning the GOP primary. But the former president recently urged him to go “stronger” on his unfounded election fraud claims.

Masters may have gotten an assist Tuesday, when the libertarian nominee, who was pulling at 1% in the Times survey, dropped out. But with voters already voting, it’s unclear how much of a difference the move will actually make. This is another state where the governor’s race could affect the Senate contest since Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake is considered a much stronger candidate than Masters. Given their struggles in this race so far, though, Republicans will interpret Masters doing well here on election night as a sign that the environment is even better for them than they had expected.

6. North Carolina

Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)

Demetrius Freeman/Pool/Getty Images

The race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr looks closer than many observers had expected at the beginning of the cycle. Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Rep. Ted Budd were tied among registered voters in a late October Marist poll. (Budd, a third-term congressman, had a small edge among definite voters.) North Carolina is accustomed to close elections – Trump only won it by about 1 point in 2020. But Democrats haven’t won a Senate race here since 2008, the last time the state went blue at the presidential level.

Budd, Trump’s first nonincumbent Senate endorsee of the cycle, has been outraised by Beasley. And even though he’s benefited from outside spending that attacks Beasley on crime, the Democrat’s campaign has been able to take advantage of the more favorable advertising rates that candidates get. A former state Supreme Court chief justice, who would be the state’s first Black senator, Beasley has been trying to run as the outsider. “Washington politicians like Ted Budd aren’t listening,” she says in a recent spot about high prices and stagnant wages. Her ads don’t mention that she’s a Democrat – or that her party holds power in Washington. Besides hitting Budd on abortion, Democrats are also trying to make an economic counterargumen. Budd “voted against lowering drug prices for people like us,” one senior says in a Beasley ad, referring to a provision in Democrats’ health care, climate and tax package that allows Medicare to negotiate certain prescription drug prices.

Democrats have long hoped that Beasley could help energize parts of their base that don’t usually turn out in midterms – like rural Black voters and young voters. But national Democrats haven’t been able to pour as much money into this race given the number of incumbents they’re defending. Still, the Senate Majority PAC did up its spending in the state this fall, suggesting Democrats think Beasley has a shot.

7. New Hampshire

Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan

Erin Scott/Getty Images

This race’s position on the rankings continues to be one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 cycle. Democrats and Republicans alike expected this contest to jump near the top of the list if and when GOP Gov. Chris Sununu got into the race. But he decided late last year not to run. Instead, retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who had raised virtually no money, is taking on first-term Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan after making it through the September primary. That doesn’t mean this isn’t still a competitive race – especially given the national environment. But Bolduc cuts a very different profile than Sununu, a Trump critic who supports abortion rights, in a state that Biden carried by 7 points and that’s been trending blue in federal elections.

And yet, Sununu, who previously called Bolduc a “conspiracy theory type candidate,” is now supporting the GOP nominee, who’s repeatedly pushed election falsehoods. (Asked about that choice, the governor told CNN this week that no one should be a “one-issue voter.”) Bolduc also recently picked up an endorsement from Trump. Despite some Republicans coming to his side, both the Senate Leadership Fund and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have cut funding here as they’ve diverted resources to higher-priority races. That’s accentuated the resource disparity between Bolduc, who had raised about $1 million at of the end of the Federal Election Commission’s pre-general reporting period on October 19, compared with Hassan’s $39 million.

Still, Hassan’s closing ad, in which she talks about “standing up to the president – whatever it takes,” speaks to her vulnerability this year given the national environment, which even her massive fundraising advantage may not be able to erase.

8. Ohio

Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)

TING SHEN/AFP/POOL/Getty Images

The race for retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman’s seat wasn’t supposed to be competitive – Trump won the state by 8 points and, with the exception of Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s success, it’s been trending red over the past decade. Given those fundamentals and the national mood, Republicans still very much have the edge here, which is why it’s in the second half of this list.

But there’s no denying that Trump’s hand-picked Republican candidate, J.D. Vance, struggled to raise money and consolidate GOP support after a divisive primary. The diversion of Republican super PAC spending from more reliable battlegrounds to shore him up in Ohio speaks to his weaknesses as a candidate. After Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan had the airwaves mostly to himself over the summer, the Senate Leadership Fund has been trying to poke holes in his moderate image by tying him to Biden. Still, Ryan’s vast fundraising advantage has allowed him to run plenty of ads in which he says he has sided with Trump on trade and takes on his own party.

The candidates were essentially tied in a late October Marist survey, which likely speaks to this particular matchup given that the same survey showed the gubernatorial contest not even close. But Republicans are confident, given the makeup of the state, that the remaining undecided voters in the Senate race, who made up 8% of registered voters in that Marist survey, will break late for Vance. It’s probably no accident that Trump is holding a rally in Ohio the day before Election Day.

9. Florida

Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio

DREW ANGERER/AFP/POOL/Getty Images

Florida voted for Trump by a smaller margin than Ohio, but for the second month in a row, the Sunshine State has ranked lower on the list of seats most likely to flip. That’s because Republican Sen. Marco Rubio – although he’s been outraised by a strong challenger in Democratic Rep. Val Demings – is a two-term incumbent who seems to be doing everything he needs to do to win in this environment.

Demings, a former Orlando police chief, has leaned heavily into her law enforcement experience. “The Senate could use a cop on the beat,” she says in one spot in which she explains her opposition to defunding the police. But that hasn’t been enough to blunt Republican attacks that she’s prioritized Washington over the police by siding with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

10. Colorado

Incumbent: Democrat Michael Bennet

DEMETRIUS FREEMAN/AFP/POOL/Getty Images

Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is used to close races – he won his last reelection in 2016 by just 6 points against a GOP challenger whom the national party had abandoned. He’s facing a much more formidable opponent this time in businessman Joe O’Dea, who has expressed support for abortion in the early stages of pregnancy and has criticized Trump. He told CNN’s Dana Bash last month that he would “actively” campaign against the former president, which inspired Trump to lash out at the GOP nominee.

That might actually help O’Dea in a state Biden carried by more than 13 points in 2020. And in a sign of the GOP’s brewing divisions ahead of 2024, the race has become a point of divergence between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has backed O’Dea. The Senate Leadership Fund gave $1.25 million to a pro-O’Dea super PAC – the same amount it gave to a group supporting Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley in Washington state. But Biden’s smaller margin in Colorado (he won Washington by 19 points) makes it more likely to flip if the national environment gives Republicans a chance to pick up a seat in a state seen as safely blue.