# A Prediction Method for Evolution Effects of Software Architecture

Authors: Tong Wang; Yebin Chen; Xiaoyan Wang
Journal: Security and Communication Networks
 (2021)

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## Abstract

Software architecture evolution may lead to architecture erosion, resulting in the increase of software maintenance cost, the deterioration of software quality, the decline of software performance, and so on. In order to avoid software architecture erosion, we should evaluate the evolution effect of software architecture in time. This paper proposes a prediction method for the evolution effects of software architecture based on BP network. Firstly, this method proposes four evolution principles and evaluates the overall evolution effects based on the combined measurements. Then, we extract the evolutionary activities from release notes. Finally, we establish a prediction model for evolution effect based on BP network. Experimental results show that the proposed method can be used to predict the evolution effect.


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## Body

## 1. Introduction

In the software life cycle, architects and developers to meet users’ requirements with the software through the continuous evolution [1–3], in order to improve software performance [4], realize new functions [5], and improve software quality [6], stakeholders need to constantly modify the software to meet new requirements [7, 8]. Software evolution is often accompanied by software architecture evolution [9]. As a high-level abstraction of software, software architecture hides the implementation details, algorithms, and data representation of source code [10], which helps developers and maintainers to understand software and repair problems as soon as possible [11].Software architecture quality plays an important role of continuous evolution, and the decrease of it may bring many negative effects [7, 12, 13]. For example, the reduced maintainability of the architecture will increase the evolution cost and prolong the evolution cycle. The ease of understanding of architecture decreases, which will increase the difficulty of development and architecture reuse. The increase of architecture complexity will reduce software performance. In order to reduce the negative impact of architecture erosion on software, timely discovering, analyzing, and solving architecture erosion is an important task in the process of software development and maintenance [14, 15].At the same time, timely prediction and control of architecture erosion can reduce its negative impact. Architecture erosion, like software defects, is an important factor affecting software quality. At the same time, like software defects, the earlier the repair, the less the repair cost. Therefore, before evolving architecture evolution, predicting evolution effects can help us avoid paying a huge maintenance cost and a long development time.In order to predict evolution effects, we propose a software architecture evolution effect evaluation method based on the achievement measurement of evolution principles. This method focuses on the changes of component scale, the dependency between components, the overall scale of software architecture, and the overall dependency of software architecture and proposes the principles of component simplification, independent evolution, main body stability, and smooth evolution to measure these changes. Then, based on the basic information and dependency information of software, the achievement of the above evolution principles is measured. Finally, the evolution effect of software architecture is evaluated based on the combined measurements.


## 2. Related Works

In order to know the software architecture quality, many measurement methods are proposed. At present, there are three representative measurement methods of software architecture. The first is the experience-based software architecture evaluation technology [16]. Experts evaluate software architecture based on their experience, and the accuracy of evaluation results is greatly affected by subjective factors. The second is the scenario-based software architecture evaluation technology [17], which is only applicable to software architectures in some fields, so it has low universality. The third is the measurement-based software architecture evaluation method [18], which first measures the internal characteristics of the software architecture and then evaluates the software architecture based on the measurement results, which has better universality and objectivity.Due to the above advantages of the measurement-based evaluation method, researchers have implemented software architecture evaluation based on software architecture principles. For example, Wermelinger et al. evaluated the evolution effect ofEclipse based on the principles of software architecture acyclic dependency and stable dependency [19] and further evaluated the evolution effect of software architecture based on the principles of opening and closing, common reuse, and common closure [20]. The above evaluation of software architecture from the perspective of software architecture design mainly evaluates whether the software architecture still follows the design principles after evolution. Therefore, this kind of evaluation focuses on the evolution problems involved in the design stage of software architecture.The above methods are still obviously insufficient to evaluate the evolution effect of software architecture because some concerns in the process of software architecture evolution are not considered, including whether the main body of software architecture is stable, whether the components are simplified, whether the evolution of components is independent, whether the evolution process is smooth, etc. Only when the principle focuses on the evolution effect, it can help us to avoid architecture erosion.


## 3. The Proposed Method

Our method contains three steps, and the workflow is shown in Figure1.(1)
Measuring Evolution Effects. In this step, we propose four evolution principles, and each evolution principle measures an aspect of evolution effects of software architecture, and then the measurements of the four evolution principles are combined to evaluate the overall evolution effects.(2)
Extracting Evolutionary Activities. We extract the evolutionary activities from release notes, and these activities are classified into three types: improving performance, adding new functions, and fixing bugs. These evolutionary activities reflect the evolutionary plan.(3)
Predicting Evolution Effects. BP network can be used to predict values [21, 22], so we establish a prediction method for evolution effects based on it, and the inputs are the four evolution principles measurements and the number of evolutionary activities of each type.Figure 1
The workflow of our method.


### 3.1. Measuring Evolutionary Effects

The principle of software architecture evolution refers to the rules and criteria for software architecture evolution. It describes the expected effects of software architecture evolution. The purpose of the principle is to evaluate whether the software architecture continues to evolve well. However, the software architecture evolution principle reflects the idealized evolution effect of software architecture. In the real development process, due to the low professional skills of developers and insufficient project management, the evolved software architecture cannot fully achieve the evolution effect expected by the software architecture evolution principle. We take the achievement of software architecture principles as an index to measure the effect of software architecture evolution.In the process of measuring the achievement of software architecture evolution principles, first, we select the versions before and after evolution and extract the software architecture information based on the software architecture graphs of the two versions and then quantitatively measure the achievement of software architecture evolution principles. The higher the degree of achievement of principles is, the better the evolution effect meets the evolution principles.We propose four software architecture evolution principles based on the category and granularity of the evolved objects. In terms of the category of the evolved object, software architecture evolution includes scale evolution and dependency evolution. In terms of the granularity of the evolved object, software architecture evolution includes the overall evolution of software architecture and the evolution of a component. This paper combines the category with the granularity and proposes four software architecture evolution principles: the principle of main body stability focuses on the change of overall dependency of software architecture, the principle of independent evolution focuses on the change of dependency between components, the principle of smooth evolution focuses on the overall scale change of software architecture, and the principle of component simplification focuses on the internal scale change of components.The Principle of the Stable Main Body (SMP). Software architecture consists of components and dependencies between components, so components and dependencies between components constitute the main body of software architecture. In the process of software architecture evolution, the significant changes in the dependencies between components and components will introduce a lot of uncertain factors, such as whether the functions of components are stable and whether the interfaces between components are compatible, which pose a threat to the quality of software. Therefore, the stability of the main body of software architecture is an important condition to ensure the stable operation of the software. This paper uses the changes of components and dependencies between components as an indicator to measure whether the main body of the software architecture is stable. The fewer the changes of dependencies between components are, the more stable the main body is. The measurement equation of SMP is as follows:(1)SMP=Ni∩Ni+1−Ni∪Ni+1−Ni∩Ni+1−B−A−BNi∩Ni+1+Ni∪Ni+1−Ni∩Ni+1+B−A−B,in which(2)A=Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni∧nt∈Ni∪Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni+1∧nt∈Ni+1,B=Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni∧nt∈Ni∩Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni+1∧nt∈Ni+1,in which SMP is the achievement degree of SMP, Ni is the set of components of Vi, Ni+1 is the set of components of Vi+1, A is the set of dependence edges which belong to Vi or Vi+1, B is the set of dependence edges which belong to Vi and Vi+1, ns,nt is the dependence edge between component ns and component nt, Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni∧nt∈Ni is the number of dependence edges of Vi, and Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni+1∧nt∈Ni+1 is the number of dependence edges of Vi+1.The Principle of Independent Evolution (IEP). The low coupling relationship between components is conducive to avoiding the negative impact of component changes on other components. Therefore, in the process of software architecture evolution, we should try to reduce the coupling between components, that is, the evolution of components should be relatively independent and avoid affecting other components. In this paper, the average number of components associated with components is used as an index to measure whether components are independent or not. The more the number of associated components, the higher the coupling between components and the lower the independence of components, and the fewer the number of associated components, the lower the coupling between components and the higher the independence of components. The measurement equation of IEP is as follows:(3)IEP=Ei/Ni−Ei+1/Ni+1Ei/Ni+Ei+1/Ni+1,in which IEP is the achievement degree of IEP, Ni is the set of components of Vi, Ni+1 is the set of components of Vi+1, Ei is the set of dependence edges of Vi, Ei+1 is the set of dependence edges of Vi+1, and X is the number of elements of the set X.The Principle of Smooth Evolution (SEP). In the process of software architecture evolution, in order to avoid introducing potential threats and reduce the cost of software evolution, stakeholders meet new requirements with as few changes as possible. Therefore, in the process of evolution, the change range of scale is small and the change scale accounts for a small proportion of the overall scale of software, so as to realize the smooth evolution of software. In this paper, the average value of the scale change proportion of each component is used as the index to measure whether the scale of software architecture evolves smoothly. The smaller the average change proportion of components, the smoother the overall evolution of software architecture, and the larger the average change proportion, indicating that the change range of software architecture is more intense. The measurement equation of SEP is as follows:(4)SEP=1−2∑c=1N+1LOCi,c−LOCi+1,c/maxLOCi,c,LOCi+1,cNi+1,in which SEP is the achievement degree of SEP, Ni+1 is the number of elements of the set Vi+1, c is the component ID, LOCi,c is the scale of c of Vi, and LOCi+1,c is the scale of c of Vi+1; when c is a new component, LOCi+1,c is 0.The Principle of Simplified Component (SCP). In the process of evolution, the functions of components are gradually added and improved. However, the introduction of new code may increase the scale of components and the complexity of dependencies between components. The above changes will reduce the replaceability of components. Therefore, in the process of evolution, developers should timely decouple components with high cohesion and simplify component functions to improve the replaceability of components, reduce the coupling between components, and improve the cohesion within components. The main feature of component reduction is the reduction of component size. The average value of component size is used as an indicator to measure the degree of component reduction. The smaller the average size of components is, the more streamlined the components are, and the larger the average size of components is, the more complex the functions of components are. The measurement equation of SCP is as follows:(5)SCP=LOCi/Ni−LOCi+1/Ni+1LOCi/Ni+LOCi+1/Ni+1,in which SCP is the achievement degree of SCP, Ni is the set of components of Vi, Ni+1 is the set of components of Vi+1, X is the number of elements of the set X, LOCi is the total number of code lines in Vi, and LOCi+1 is the total number of code lines in Vi+1.Through the measurement equations of the above four evolution principles and the meaning of their parameters, it can be seen that the achievement value range of the four evolution principles is−1,1, and the greater the measurement value, the better the achievement of the principles; the smaller the measure, the worse the achievement of the principle.Then, we combined the measurements of the four evolution principles to evaluate the overall evolution effect. The four evolution principles focus on different aspects of software architecture evolution. We use the achievement of a single evolution principle to evaluate the evolution effect of its concerns, and the four evolution principles are combined to evaluate the overall evolution effect of software architecture. The equation of the overall evolution effect is as follows:(6)OEE=∑i=1Nwi∗Pi,in which OEE is the overall evolution effect, N is the number of evolution principles, Pi is the measurement of the ith evolution principle, wi is the weight of the ith evolution principle, and the sum of all weights is 1. Since the value range of the measurement value of the evolution principle is −1,1 and the sum of weights is 1, the value range of the overall effect is −1,1.We evaluate the evolution effect of its focus based on the achievement of a single evolution principle. The four software architecture evolution principles proposed in this paper have different concerns, and the effect of software architecture evolution is evaluated from four different aspects. MSP focuses on the overall constraints of the software architecture, that is, the changes of the structure. The reachability of the principle is used to evaluate whether the software architecture framework has changed significantly. The focus of IEP is the change of the tightness of constraints between components in the software architecture. The reachability of the principle is used to evaluate the change of coupling degree between components in the software architecture. The focus of SEP is the change of the overall scale of the software architecture. The achievability of the principle is used to evaluate whether the scale of the software architecture has changed significantly. The principle of component reduction focuses on the change of component scale. The achievement of this principle is used to evaluate whether components in software architecture tend to be reduced gradually.The four evolution principles are combined to evaluate the overall evolution effect of software architecture. The achievement of a single evolution principle only reflects one aspect of architecture evolution. The overall evolution effect of software architecture affects whether the software can achieve the evolution goal with low evolution cost and whether the software is easy to maintain in the next evolution process. Therefore, we combine the four evolution principles to synthesize the evolution of software architecture and then evaluate the overall evolution effect.


### 3.2. Extracting Evolutionary Activities

In the evolutionary process, developers implement some activities to change software, and these activities are called evolutionary activities.The evolutionary activities are mainly classified into four types: (1) adding, new functions are added in the software, (2) improving, the performance and the functionality are improved, (3) fixing, the logic bugs or the functional bugs are fixed, and (4) updating, the documents are updating based on new modification [8]. But updating documents does not have an effect on the architecture, so we only focus on the first three activities.The changed content is related to the type of evolutionary activity. For example, if a developer wants to add a new function into a stable software architecture, he mostly develops a new component or a small module, and then he changes a little code of the existing architecture to invoke the API of the new function, so the change content is establishing a new dependency between the architecture and the new component. If a developer wants to improve performance or functionality, he mostly uses a better component with higher performance or perfecter functionality to replace an original component, so the corresponding APIs of the original components may be changed, and the related codes should be modified based on the new APIs; in a word, the changes are mostly related to the dependencies between components. In the fixing process, maybe the component and its related dependencies will be evolved, and the changed scale depends on the actual situation, so its changed content may be more complex than other activities.Release notes are written by developers, and they record the changes compared with the previous version, so we extract the evolutionary activities of each evolutionary process based on the release note to find out why architecture is changed and which parts are changed.Here, we take the release oftablesaw v0.22.0 as the example to show how to format release notes.Added table.as()...functionality replacing table.asMatrix() and adding many new optionsAdded an option to CsvReaderOptions to provide a missing value stringMade Row constructor publicUpgraded dependenciesThe first item denotes adding new functions. The second item denotes that an exciting function is improved. The third item is made a constructor to be a public method, and according to the development experience, it is related to improving existing functions. The latest item is also related to improving the functions or perfecting the software architecture.According to the above analysis, in the evolutionary process, one function is added, no bug is fixed, and three functions are improved. So, the release note is formatted as <1, 0, 3>.We extract release notes from GitHub and construct a corpus based on these evolutionary records. Then, we use it to text classification.


### 3.3. Establishing the Prediction Model Based on BP Network

We establish the prediction model based on the above data and BP network [23, 24]. Inputs of the prediction model are SMP, IEP, SEP, SCP, the number of adding activities, the number of fixing activities, and the number of improving activities. The evolution effects are considered as the unit of the output layer, and the hidden layer has two units. The BP network is shown in Figure 2.Figure 2
The BP network of our prediction method.


## 3.1. Measuring Evolutionary Effects

The principle of software architecture evolution refers to the rules and criteria for software architecture evolution. It describes the expected effects of software architecture evolution. The purpose of the principle is to evaluate whether the software architecture continues to evolve well. However, the software architecture evolution principle reflects the idealized evolution effect of software architecture. In the real development process, due to the low professional skills of developers and insufficient project management, the evolved software architecture cannot fully achieve the evolution effect expected by the software architecture evolution principle. We take the achievement of software architecture principles as an index to measure the effect of software architecture evolution.In the process of measuring the achievement of software architecture evolution principles, first, we select the versions before and after evolution and extract the software architecture information based on the software architecture graphs of the two versions and then quantitatively measure the achievement of software architecture evolution principles. The higher the degree of achievement of principles is, the better the evolution effect meets the evolution principles.We propose four software architecture evolution principles based on the category and granularity of the evolved objects. In terms of the category of the evolved object, software architecture evolution includes scale evolution and dependency evolution. In terms of the granularity of the evolved object, software architecture evolution includes the overall evolution of software architecture and the evolution of a component. This paper combines the category with the granularity and proposes four software architecture evolution principles: the principle of main body stability focuses on the change of overall dependency of software architecture, the principle of independent evolution focuses on the change of dependency between components, the principle of smooth evolution focuses on the overall scale change of software architecture, and the principle of component simplification focuses on the internal scale change of components.The Principle of the Stable Main Body (SMP). Software architecture consists of components and dependencies between components, so components and dependencies between components constitute the main body of software architecture. In the process of software architecture evolution, the significant changes in the dependencies between components and components will introduce a lot of uncertain factors, such as whether the functions of components are stable and whether the interfaces between components are compatible, which pose a threat to the quality of software. Therefore, the stability of the main body of software architecture is an important condition to ensure the stable operation of the software. This paper uses the changes of components and dependencies between components as an indicator to measure whether the main body of the software architecture is stable. The fewer the changes of dependencies between components are, the more stable the main body is. The measurement equation of SMP is as follows:(1)SMP=Ni∩Ni+1−Ni∪Ni+1−Ni∩Ni+1−B−A−BNi∩Ni+1+Ni∪Ni+1−Ni∩Ni+1+B−A−B,in which(2)A=Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni∧nt∈Ni∪Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni+1∧nt∈Ni+1,B=Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni∧nt∈Ni∩Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni+1∧nt∈Ni+1,in which SMP is the achievement degree of SMP, Ni is the set of components of Vi, Ni+1 is the set of components of Vi+1, A is the set of dependence edges which belong to Vi or Vi+1, B is the set of dependence edges which belong to Vi and Vi+1, ns,nt is the dependence edge between component ns and component nt, Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni∧nt∈Ni is the number of dependence edges of Vi, and Ens,nt∧ns∈Ni+1∧nt∈Ni+1 is the number of dependence edges of Vi+1.The Principle of Independent Evolution (IEP). The low coupling relationship between components is conducive to avoiding the negative impact of component changes on other components. Therefore, in the process of software architecture evolution, we should try to reduce the coupling between components, that is, the evolution of components should be relatively independent and avoid affecting other components. In this paper, the average number of components associated with components is used as an index to measure whether components are independent or not. The more the number of associated components, the higher the coupling between components and the lower the independence of components, and the fewer the number of associated components, the lower the coupling between components and the higher the independence of components. The measurement equation of IEP is as follows:(3)IEP=Ei/Ni−Ei+1/Ni+1Ei/Ni+Ei+1/Ni+1,in which IEP is the achievement degree of IEP, Ni is the set of components of Vi, Ni+1 is the set of components of Vi+1, Ei is the set of dependence edges of Vi, Ei+1 is the set of dependence edges of Vi+1, and X is the number of elements of the set X.The Principle of Smooth Evolution (SEP). In the process of software architecture evolution, in order to avoid introducing potential threats and reduce the cost of software evolution, stakeholders meet new requirements with as few changes as possible. Therefore, in the process of evolution, the change range of scale is small and the change scale accounts for a small proportion of the overall scale of software, so as to realize the smooth evolution of software. In this paper, the average value of the scale change proportion of each component is used as the index to measure whether the scale of software architecture evolves smoothly. The smaller the average change proportion of components, the smoother the overall evolution of software architecture, and the larger the average change proportion, indicating that the change range of software architecture is more intense. The measurement equation of SEP is as follows:(4)SEP=1−2∑c=1N+1LOCi,c−LOCi+1,c/maxLOCi,c,LOCi+1,cNi+1,in which SEP is the achievement degree of SEP, Ni+1 is the number of elements of the set Vi+1, c is the component ID, LOCi,c is the scale of c of Vi, and LOCi+1,c is the scale of c of Vi+1; when c is a new component, LOCi+1,c is 0.The Principle of Simplified Component (SCP). In the process of evolution, the functions of components are gradually added and improved. However, the introduction of new code may increase the scale of components and the complexity of dependencies between components. The above changes will reduce the replaceability of components. Therefore, in the process of evolution, developers should timely decouple components with high cohesion and simplify component functions to improve the replaceability of components, reduce the coupling between components, and improve the cohesion within components. The main feature of component reduction is the reduction of component size. The average value of component size is used as an indicator to measure the degree of component reduction. The smaller the average size of components is, the more streamlined the components are, and the larger the average size of components is, the more complex the functions of components are. The measurement equation of SCP is as follows:(5)SCP=LOCi/Ni−LOCi+1/Ni+1LOCi/Ni+LOCi+1/Ni+1,in which SCP is the achievement degree of SCP, Ni is the set of components of Vi, Ni+1 is the set of components of Vi+1, X is the number of elements of the set X, LOCi is the total number of code lines in Vi, and LOCi+1 is the total number of code lines in Vi+1.Through the measurement equations of the above four evolution principles and the meaning of their parameters, it can be seen that the achievement value range of the four evolution principles is−1,1, and the greater the measurement value, the better the achievement of the principles; the smaller the measure, the worse the achievement of the principle.Then, we combined the measurements of the four evolution principles to evaluate the overall evolution effect. The four evolution principles focus on different aspects of software architecture evolution. We use the achievement of a single evolution principle to evaluate the evolution effect of its concerns, and the four evolution principles are combined to evaluate the overall evolution effect of software architecture. The equation of the overall evolution effect is as follows:(6)OEE=∑i=1Nwi∗Pi,in which OEE is the overall evolution effect, N is the number of evolution principles, Pi is the measurement of the ith evolution principle, wi is the weight of the ith evolution principle, and the sum of all weights is 1. Since the value range of the measurement value of the evolution principle is −1,1 and the sum of weights is 1, the value range of the overall effect is −1,1.We evaluate the evolution effect of its focus based on the achievement of a single evolution principle. The four software architecture evolution principles proposed in this paper have different concerns, and the effect of software architecture evolution is evaluated from four different aspects. MSP focuses on the overall constraints of the software architecture, that is, the changes of the structure. The reachability of the principle is used to evaluate whether the software architecture framework has changed significantly. The focus of IEP is the change of the tightness of constraints between components in the software architecture. The reachability of the principle is used to evaluate the change of coupling degree between components in the software architecture. The focus of SEP is the change of the overall scale of the software architecture. The achievability of the principle is used to evaluate whether the scale of the software architecture has changed significantly. The principle of component reduction focuses on the change of component scale. The achievement of this principle is used to evaluate whether components in software architecture tend to be reduced gradually.The four evolution principles are combined to evaluate the overall evolution effect of software architecture. The achievement of a single evolution principle only reflects one aspect of architecture evolution. The overall evolution effect of software architecture affects whether the software can achieve the evolution goal with low evolution cost and whether the software is easy to maintain in the next evolution process. Therefore, we combine the four evolution principles to synthesize the evolution of software architecture and then evaluate the overall evolution effect.


## 3.2. Extracting Evolutionary Activities

In the evolutionary process, developers implement some activities to change software, and these activities are called evolutionary activities.The evolutionary activities are mainly classified into four types: (1) adding, new functions are added in the software, (2) improving, the performance and the functionality are improved, (3) fixing, the logic bugs or the functional bugs are fixed, and (4) updating, the documents are updating based on new modification [8]. But updating documents does not have an effect on the architecture, so we only focus on the first three activities.The changed content is related to the type of evolutionary activity. For example, if a developer wants to add a new function into a stable software architecture, he mostly develops a new component or a small module, and then he changes a little code of the existing architecture to invoke the API of the new function, so the change content is establishing a new dependency between the architecture and the new component. If a developer wants to improve performance or functionality, he mostly uses a better component with higher performance or perfecter functionality to replace an original component, so the corresponding APIs of the original components may be changed, and the related codes should be modified based on the new APIs; in a word, the changes are mostly related to the dependencies between components. In the fixing process, maybe the component and its related dependencies will be evolved, and the changed scale depends on the actual situation, so its changed content may be more complex than other activities.Release notes are written by developers, and they record the changes compared with the previous version, so we extract the evolutionary activities of each evolutionary process based on the release note to find out why architecture is changed and which parts are changed.Here, we take the release oftablesaw v0.22.0 as the example to show how to format release notes.Added table.as()...functionality replacing table.asMatrix() and adding many new optionsAdded an option to CsvReaderOptions to provide a missing value stringMade Row constructor publicUpgraded dependenciesThe first item denotes adding new functions. The second item denotes that an exciting function is improved. The third item is made a constructor to be a public method, and according to the development experience, it is related to improving existing functions. The latest item is also related to improving the functions or perfecting the software architecture.According to the above analysis, in the evolutionary process, one function is added, no bug is fixed, and three functions are improved. So, the release note is formatted as <1, 0, 3>.We extract release notes from GitHub and construct a corpus based on these evolutionary records. Then, we use it to text classification.


## 3.3. Establishing the Prediction Model Based on BP Network

We establish the prediction model based on the above data and BP network [23, 24]. Inputs of the prediction model are SMP, IEP, SEP, SCP, the number of adding activities, the number of fixing activities, and the number of improving activities. The evolution effects are considered as the unit of the output layer, and the hidden layer has two units. The BP network is shown in Figure 2.Figure 2
The BP network of our prediction method.


## 4. Experiments

In our method, we need to measure architecture quality attributes and calculate erosion degrees based on the architecture graph; however, most projects do not propose them. So, we get the architecture graph by using the architecture recovery method [25].We select experimental cases from GitHub. In order to ensure the effectiveness and objectivity of measurement results, the experimental object is selected based on the following two principles: (1) the software project has at least 25 release versions to ensure that the software project experiences long-term evolution and (2) the software project needs to receive at least 800 stars on GitHub to ensure that the software project has a certain degree of recognition.We extract the following data from each experimental case: (1) the architecture graph (we calculate the evolution principles based on the architecture graph) and (2) the release notes (we extract the evolutionary activities during the evolution process).The data are divided into the training set and the test set in a 4 : 1 ratio. The training set is used to train the model, and the test set is used to predict evolution effects to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model.Due to the limitation of space, we only show some items of our data. The data of SMP are shown in Figure3. The figure shows that the measurements of SEP are all positive numbers, so the principle is observed, that is, the main body is stable in the evolution process. There are some relatively low measurements, such as No. 3 version and No. 11 version. According to the changed codes and the changed component dependency graphs, we find that, in theses evolution processes, stakeholders have reconstructed the software architecture on a large scale, resulting in drastic changes in the components and the relationship between components in its software architecture. This change will lead to problems such as unable to ensure the compatibility of component interfaces and the rationality of software architecture.Figure 3
The data of SMP.The data of SCP are shown in Figure4. The figure shows that some measurements are negative numbers, that is, many components are more complex after evolution.Figure 4
The data of SCP.The data of IEP are shown in Figure5. The figure shows that not only some measurements are negative numbers but also the positive numbers are small, that is, the evolution effect of the dependency is not acceptable.Figure 5
The data of IEP.The data of SEP are shown in Figure6. The figure shows that although some measurements are equal to 1, the negative measurements are relatively big, so the evolution effect of SEP has great volatility, and developers should pay more attention to it.Figure 6
The data of SEP.We take the root mean square error (RMSE) as the indicator to evaluate the accuracy of our prediction model, and RMSE is calculated as follows:(7)RMSEM,N=1M∑i=1MMi−Ni2,in which M denotes the set of prediction values, N denotes the set of actual values, RMSEM,N is the RMSE between M and N, and M is the number of elements of M.RMSE provides a measure of the goodness of fit for the data applied to establish functions. We calculate RMSE of our prediction model, and the result is 0.202. The value indicates that our prediction model can be used to predict architecture evolution effects, that is, our method is effective.RMSE is the square root of the ratio of the square sum of the deviation between the observed value and the true value to the number of observations. RMSE is very sensitive to the large or small errors in a group of measurements, so it can well reflect the measurement precision. In actual development environment, some evolution processes have abnormal measurements of evolution effects, but we also need to know the effects of the corresponding evolutionary activities.


## 5. Threats to Validity

### 5.1. Construct Validity

It is concerned with the relation between theory and observation. The evolution principles proposed in this paper only cover four aspects in the process of software architecture evolution and do not include all the characteristics of software architecture evolution. However, exploring the principles of software architecture evolution is a long-term process. With the deepening of research, we will gradually improve the research on the principles of software architecture evolution. Secondly, we analyze the relationship between evolution effects and the number of evolutionary activities, but each component has different characteristics, so the effects of evolutionary activities for each component may not have the same evolution effect. In future work, we will refine the information of the evolved component to improve the accuracy of our prediction model.


### 5.2. Internal Validity

It concerns the connection between the observed behavior and the proposed explanation for the behavior. In our experiments, we set all weights of evolution principles to be 0.25, that is, all evolution principles have the same importance. However, in some fields, some of them may have higher weights, so the weights are not suitable for all application scenarios.


### 5.3. External Validity

It is concerned with generalization. For extracting evolutionary activities, we only choose some experimental cases which have relatively perfect release notes, and most of these projects have a relatively formal development team, so the evolution effects can be predicted based on their development behavior. At the same time, we cannot ensure that our prediction method can be used for predicting other small projects.


## 5.1. Construct Validity

It is concerned with the relation between theory and observation. The evolution principles proposed in this paper only cover four aspects in the process of software architecture evolution and do not include all the characteristics of software architecture evolution. However, exploring the principles of software architecture evolution is a long-term process. With the deepening of research, we will gradually improve the research on the principles of software architecture evolution. Secondly, we analyze the relationship between evolution effects and the number of evolutionary activities, but each component has different characteristics, so the effects of evolutionary activities for each component may not have the same evolution effect. In future work, we will refine the information of the evolved component to improve the accuracy of our prediction model.


## 5.2. Internal Validity

It concerns the connection between the observed behavior and the proposed explanation for the behavior. In our experiments, we set all weights of evolution principles to be 0.25, that is, all evolution principles have the same importance. However, in some fields, some of them may have higher weights, so the weights are not suitable for all application scenarios.


## 5.3. External Validity

It is concerned with generalization. For extracting evolutionary activities, we only choose some experimental cases which have relatively perfect release notes, and most of these projects have a relatively formal development team, so the evolution effects can be predicted based on their development behavior. At the same time, we cannot ensure that our prediction method can be used for predicting other small projects.


## 6. Conclusion

In this paper, we propose a prediction method for evolution effects. The method can be used before implementing the evolution plan and predict whether the evolution plan has an acceptable evolution effect.Compared with related research studies, our method pays more attention to predicting architecture effects instead of repairing eroded architecture, so it is helpful for avoiding architecture erosion and reducing maintenance costs.



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*Source: 8480408-2021-11-24.xml*