# Predicament and Thinking of College Students’ Employment and Entrepreneurship under the Background of Supply-Side Reform

Authors: Mei Yu
Journal: Mobile Information Systems
 (2022)

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## Abstract

Based on the analysis of the current employment and entrepreneurship of college students based on the supply-side structural reform, the employment and entrepreneurship guidance of college students is far from meeting the needs of the society. Therefore, the innovation of talent training mode needs to become an important goal of college development at this stage. Based on the previously mentioned background, this paper included 853 university students as research objects and their data from 2010 to 2018. First, we used the BP neural network as the starting point to conduct in-depth research, selected the sequential model algorithm based on the Keras framework, built a one-layer network and six types of eigenvalue labels to predict the development direction of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship, and evaluated the prediction accuracy of the model. This proves that the prediction effect of the model has the value of continuing in-depth research, and then, the prediction model is further optimized. Then, we added a three-layer network to the model and an SGD optimizer and used Softmax as the regression function to verify that the optimized model predicts well. The average accuracy of the prediction model constructed in this paper is 81.48%, the standard deviation is 4.34%, the Acc value of the model is stable at around 0.835, and the loss value is stable at around 0.3, which proves that the prediction model has a good prediction. It provides a set of application models that can be used for reference for the combination of BP neural network related knowledge and college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development direction prediction. Based on the background of the supply-side structural reform, this paper mainly analyzes and researches the current employment and entrepreneurial paths of college students in my country, hoping to provide reference for the cultivation of talents in colleges and universities.


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## Body

## 1. Introduction

In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed to “deepen supply-side structural reform.” To build a modern economic system, we must focus on developing the real economy, take improving the quality of the supply system as the main direction of attack, and significantly enhance the quality of China’s economy. The employment problem of contemporary college students is very prominent, but many employers still have talent shortages. On the one hand, under the influence of the country’s expansionary policy, the number of college students has been increasing year by year in recent years, while the employment positions that the society can provide are minimal, and new changes have occurred in the difficulty of college students’ employment. On the other hand, many employers need high-tech innovative talents, and the number of university graduates who meet this aspect is very limited.The higher education supply system plays a vital role in the transformation and upgrading of China’s economic structure and undertakes the important task of exporting comprehensive talents to society. To adapt to the transformation of China’s economic and social structure, the talent output of colleges and universities must conform to the law of the operation and development of the economic market [1]. The supply-side reform of higher education should pay more attention to the quality of education and teaching of college teachers and the comprehensive quality of students, to better connect the professional setting of colleges and universities with social needs and further promote the transformation and development of China’s economic field. The reform in the field of higher education should focus on the organic combination of supply and demand and cultivate comprehensive talents suitable for the development of the market economy, so as to adapt to the transformation and upgrading of China’s social and economic structure [2].Since entering the new era, the reform of higher education should be comprehensively promoted, the education of colleges and universities should focus on talent training, and colleges and universities should vigorously build a new mechanism for comprehensive, whole-process, and deep integration of social collaborative education. Under the background of higher education supply-side reform, colleges and universities should establish a talent training mechanism in close cooperation with social employment departments, clarify the talent standards required by the market, jointly formulate talent training programs, improve the level of teaching practice, transform social high-quality educational resources into educational content [3], and collaborate with relevant departments to manage talents. Higher education needs to carry out supply-side reforms to better meet the needs of the market, be guided by social needs, and cultivate high-quality talents that meet social needs [4]. In recent years, some colleges and universities have unilaterally pursued the enrollment rate and enrollment volume, ignoring their own school-running conditions and educational resources, resulting in duplication and homogeneity of majors in colleges and universities [5]. The professional setting structure of colleges and universities is not optimized, the dynamics and market adaptability are insufficient, and the degree of matching with the market is low. Colleges and universities can use big data technology to accurately predict market demand, increase communication and coordination with the market, scientifically adjust the layout and structure of disciplines, and fully realize the supply balance of higher education [6]. With the gradual increase in the number of fresh graduates in our country, the upgrading of the industrial structure has brought about an increase in the employment pressure of college students. The decline in the teaching quality of colleges and universities makes it difficult for talent training to meet the needs of the market. The employment market for college students is not perfect, which affects the employment of college students [7]. The process of urbanization is accelerating, and urban jobs are in short supply. The backward employment concept is difficult to adapt to the requirements of the times. There is gender discrimination in employment positions. The employment pressure on female college students is high. Difficulty starting a business is easy to cause blows [8]. These problems are all in the new situation. Compared with the past, the current college students are facing more and more employment problems. The employment of college students has become one of the urgent problems to be solved at present, and with the continuous changes of social and economic forms, college students’ entrepreneurship has become the main means to solve this problem. College students to start a business must rely on the entrepreneurial environment. The so-called entrepreneurial environment mainly refers to the collection of all factors that may have an impact on the entrepreneurial process. The social entrepreneurship environment is the carrier of college students’ entrepreneurship, and they will be affected by the entrepreneurial environment during the entire entrepreneurial process of college students. Therefore, the government attaches great importance to the work of optimizing the entrepreneurial environment. At present, many literature studies believe that the entrepreneurial behavior of college students needs various incentive policies and guarantee policies to be carried out scientifically and effectively. In other words, the success of entrepreneurship is inseparable from a suitable entrepreneurial environment.


## 2. State of the Art

College students have poor professional theoretical foundation, cannot master professional skills proficiently, and have weak practical ability. According to the feedback from the employer, some graduates are not proficient in mechanical memory professional knowledge, and their understanding is not thorough. The knowledge they have learned cannot be used to solve problems in actual work. They are hard to be favored. Graduates do not recognize the importance of social practice activities and participate in less social practice activities, resulting in weak hands-on ability. In the talent training model of colleges and universities, scores are still the main indicator for evaluating students, and they do not pay attention to the cultivation of practical ability to apply theory. In the assessment system, the practical ability of students’ practice is not really integrated into it.Colleges and universities have not truly integrated career development planning into the talent training system, the time is incoherent, the content is not systematic, the theoretical teaching is emphasized, and the teaching is not done according to aptitude. Graduates do not have a strong awareness of “career planning,” their career goals are ambiguous, they do not have a clear career vision, and they do not plan for career development. The life of a college student is like being a monk for a day, and just passing by. In the face of fierce competition when applying for a job, college students feel confused and have no opinion, follow the herd mentality for employment, and think that the unit with many applicants is a good unit. They cannot match the personnel and jobs, resulting in low employment quality, unstable work, and high turnover rate of graduates.Entrepreneurship education mainly trains entrepreneurs from the three levels of consciousness, thinking, and ability [9]. From the perspective of social development, entrepreneurship education is an important task entrusted to colleges and universities by this era of rapid economic development. From the perspective of colleges and universities, doing a good job in entrepreneurship education is the proof that higher education keeps pace with social development. Sexuality, but also hope, is a community of times and urgency [10, 11].Bejerholm and Larsson point of view is that the goal of entrepreneurship education should be to help college students who are confused to find their own position, identify their goals and directions, make long-term scientific planning for their careers, and finally achieve their own entrepreneurial goals and realize their own social value [12]. Innovation is the root of social and economic development. Entrepreneurship promotes the advancement and development of society. Entrepreneurship education is the foundation of all this. Scientific and effective entrepreneurial education can cultivate many entrepreneurial talents for the society, and these talents can create more social wealth. College students are fresh blood about to enter the society, full of passion and courage. Encouraging college students to start businesses is not only conducive to improving the current situation of employment difficulties but also conducive to social stability and sustainable development [13].Compared with Western countries, the research and practice of entrepreneurship education model in China is still short, and related projects are only in their infancy, such as (1) entrepreneurship education, (2) KAB (Know About Business, KAB), (3) SIYB training, (4) China Youth Entrepreneurship International Program, and so on. There are still many problems to be solved. The setting of entrepreneurship education courses and teaching models is still in the stage of imitation and exploration. Most of the forms are greater than the content [14]. A mature and complete entrepreneurship education system suitable for China’s national conditions has not yet been formed. There is still a lack of quantitative in-depth research on the level [15].There are still many problems to be solved in the employment and entrepreneurship of college students. The theme of “student employment and entrepreneurship” was used to manually exclude 223 documents unrelated to keywords. The trend chart of the number published in the literature is shown in Figure1. Among them, 49.3% are involved in graduate employment and entrepreneurship guidance.Figure 1
Literature search data map.


## 3. Methodology

### 3.1. Artificial Neural Network Method and Neural Network Model

Artificial neural network (ANN) was born in the late 1940s. Due to its advantages of information distribution and storage, parallel processing, and self-learning ability, it has been widely used in information processing, pattern recognition, intelligent control, and system modeling. It has been more and more widely used in other fields [16].BP neural network is a typical model of artificial neural network. It is a multilayer feed-forward network (multiple-layer feed-forward network, referred to as BP network) based on the error backpropagation algorithm. The network not only has input nodes and output nodes but can also have one or more hidden layer nodes [17]. A typical BP neural network model with input, output, and hidden layers is shown in Figure 2.Figure 2
Neural network model.For the input signal of the BP neural network, it must first propagate forward to the hidden node, and after passing through the action function, the output information of the hidden node is propagated to the output layer node, and finally, the result is output [18].If each layer of the BP neural network hasN processing units and the change function of the neurons is a sigmoid function,(1)fx=11+e−x.This action function makes the output quantity a continuous quantity between 0 and 1, so any nonlinear mapping rule from input to output can be realized. The artificial neuron takes the information it receives (the output of the previous layer) 0o, o,…, o. Use W1,W2,…,Wn−1. The connection strength forms its own input I in the form of a dot product and then converts it by a function to obtain the output O of this unit [19].In addition, the BP neural network training set includesM sample pattern pairs (X), and for the pth training sample (p = 1, 2, …, M). If the sum of the inputs of unit j (that is, the activation function) is denoted as a, the output is recorded as op, and then,(2)apj=∑j=0nwpjopj,opj=fapj=11+e−a∞.If the initial value of the network is set arbitrarily, then, for each input modep, the network output generally has an error with the expected output. The network error is defined as(3)Ep=12∑jdpj−opj2,where d represents the expected output of the output unit j of the pth input mode. At the same time, the essence of the network learning rule 8 is to use the gradient steepest descent method to make the weight change along the negative gradient direction of the error. The change of the weight w is recorded as Apwj because(4)∂Ep∂wji=∂Ep∂apj∂apj∂wji=∂Ep∂apjopj,δpj=−∂Ep∂apj,Δpwji=−η∂Ep∂apjopj.In the process of network learning, the error calculation of the output layer and the hidden layer is not the same. When representing the output of the output layer unit, the error is(5)δpj=f′apjdpj−opj.Whenop represents the output of the hidden layer, its error is(6)δpj=∂Ep∂apj=−∂Ep∂ppj∂opj∂apj=−∂Ep∂opjf′apj∂Ep∂opj∑k∂Ep∂apk∂apk∂opj=∑k∂pkwkj,where k represents the previous layer unit connected to the output of unit j, namely,(7)δpj=f′apj∑kδpkwkj.It reflects the error correction of the hidden layer unit 8. It reflects the error correction of the hidden layer unit by weighted summation of all connected to the output of unitj. It reflects the error correction of the hidden layer unit.(1)
Establish a network model, initialize the network, and learn parameters.(2)
Train the network by learning the training samples until the learning requirements are met.(3)
In the forward propagation process, for the input of the given training mode, calculate the output value of the network and compare it with the expected value. If the error cannot meet the accuracy requirements, the error is propagated back; otherwise, go to (2).(4)
Backpropagation process.The learning process of BP neural network is essentially an iterative process, which consists of forward propagation and backpropagation [20]. At this time, the characteristic data of the samples to be learned are input into the trained network, and then, the network can automatically “learn” the attributes of the samples according to memory as shown in Figure 3.Figure 3
Neural network calculation flow chart.


### 3.2. Dimensional Analysis and Data Preparation of the Impact of College Students’ Employment and Entrepreneurship Development Direction

Refer to the six categories of dimensions developed by the “College Student Evaluation Network” developed by the Education Management Information Center of the Ministry of Education for the comprehensive quality evaluation system of college students: academic quality evaluation, moral quality evaluation, literary and sports quality evaluation, psychological quality evaluation, innovation quality evaluation, and ability. The quality assessment and the dimension of the employment and entrepreneurship development direction of college students adopted by Yuan Jiaqian comprehensively determine the impact dimension of this paper, as shown in Table1.Table 1
The dimension of the influence of the development direction of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship.
Data nameThe data showsAcademic performanceThe cumulative academic performance of each subject in four years of college studentsEnglish language proficiencyIt is divided into three types: pass GET4, pass GET6, and fail the GET examPolitical civilizationIncluding students’ political status, group day activities during school, advanced class evaluation activities, and classmates’ mutual evaluation indexTechnological innovationIncluding various scientific and technological competitions, academic seminars and innovation and entrepreneurship activities participated in during the schoolStylistic artsIncluding various cultural activities and sports competitions participated in during schoolSocial volunteeringIncluding various school-organized social welfare contribution activities and personal social practice and volunteer services during schoolA total of 853 university students were included as research objects and their data from 2010 to 2018, and according to the six types of employment and entrepreneurship development directions previously mentioned, the comprehensive data and personal technical information data of 853 students in the school for four years were collected as the data samples of this experiment.The data sources of this paper are the basic information database of students, the comprehensive database of four-year academic performance in school, the student education management database, and the graduate employment information database.With the help of teachers and counselors from the relevant departments of the college, the relevant data of 853 students from 2010 to 2018 were successfully obtained, including the student’s personal information form, academic record form, school activity bonus form, award evaluation publicity form, and employment information form.(1)
Data Cleaning. Because these data come from different management systems of the school, the initially obtained data is very messy, there are many duplicate or invalid attributes, and not all attributes in the student data table are valuable for this experiment, so the obtained data must be further analyzed, including the deletion of the grades of absent students, the grades of students who did not enroll in courses, and the information of students who were suspended from school and dropped out.(2)
Data Integration. The scattered student information is statistically integrated into the annual data summary table of different classes of students, which contains all the impact dimension data of a certain class of students in a certain year. Some student information is listed, as shown in Table 2.Table 2
Annual data information table of a certain class of students.
Serial numberAcademic creditsEnglish language proficiencyPolitical civilizationTechnological innovationStylistic artsSocial volunteeringGraduation destination001144807.79580.92.420.3Employment00213750.25.376500.30Ascending00314950.48.2267.983.50.34Employment00417030.26.980301.860Employment00517110.25.088400.50Employment00616320.27.01217.420.30.15Employment00715230.24.5454.060.320Ascending00813780.26.056603.920Employment00914770.44.99820.20.350Not employed01017430.28.67814.862.90.3EmploymentBy reviewing the literature and sorting out the influencing factors of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development direction used in various research at present, the influencing dimensions of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development direction adopted in this experimental model are determined. On this basis, the source of the experimental database is determined, and the data is collected. The method proposed in this paper is to integrate, clean up, and convert the collected comprehensive data of students to form a standardized dataset, so as to lay a solid data foundation for subsequent research.


## 3.1. Artificial Neural Network Method and Neural Network Model

Artificial neural network (ANN) was born in the late 1940s. Due to its advantages of information distribution and storage, parallel processing, and self-learning ability, it has been widely used in information processing, pattern recognition, intelligent control, and system modeling. It has been more and more widely used in other fields [16].BP neural network is a typical model of artificial neural network. It is a multilayer feed-forward network (multiple-layer feed-forward network, referred to as BP network) based on the error backpropagation algorithm. The network not only has input nodes and output nodes but can also have one or more hidden layer nodes [17]. A typical BP neural network model with input, output, and hidden layers is shown in Figure 2.Figure 2
Neural network model.For the input signal of the BP neural network, it must first propagate forward to the hidden node, and after passing through the action function, the output information of the hidden node is propagated to the output layer node, and finally, the result is output [18].If each layer of the BP neural network hasN processing units and the change function of the neurons is a sigmoid function,(1)fx=11+e−x.This action function makes the output quantity a continuous quantity between 0 and 1, so any nonlinear mapping rule from input to output can be realized. The artificial neuron takes the information it receives (the output of the previous layer) 0o, o,…, o. Use W1,W2,…,Wn−1. The connection strength forms its own input I in the form of a dot product and then converts it by a function to obtain the output O of this unit [19].In addition, the BP neural network training set includesM sample pattern pairs (X), and for the pth training sample (p = 1, 2, …, M). If the sum of the inputs of unit j (that is, the activation function) is denoted as a, the output is recorded as op, and then,(2)apj=∑j=0nwpjopj,opj=fapj=11+e−a∞.If the initial value of the network is set arbitrarily, then, for each input modep, the network output generally has an error with the expected output. The network error is defined as(3)Ep=12∑jdpj−opj2,where d represents the expected output of the output unit j of the pth input mode. At the same time, the essence of the network learning rule 8 is to use the gradient steepest descent method to make the weight change along the negative gradient direction of the error. The change of the weight w is recorded as Apwj because(4)∂Ep∂wji=∂Ep∂apj∂apj∂wji=∂Ep∂apjopj,δpj=−∂Ep∂apj,Δpwji=−η∂Ep∂apjopj.In the process of network learning, the error calculation of the output layer and the hidden layer is not the same. When representing the output of the output layer unit, the error is(5)δpj=f′apjdpj−opj.Whenop represents the output of the hidden layer, its error is(6)δpj=∂Ep∂apj=−∂Ep∂ppj∂opj∂apj=−∂Ep∂opjf′apj∂Ep∂opj∑k∂Ep∂apk∂apk∂opj=∑k∂pkwkj,where k represents the previous layer unit connected to the output of unit j, namely,(7)δpj=f′apj∑kδpkwkj.It reflects the error correction of the hidden layer unit 8. It reflects the error correction of the hidden layer unit by weighted summation of all connected to the output of unitj. It reflects the error correction of the hidden layer unit.(1)
Establish a network model, initialize the network, and learn parameters.(2)
Train the network by learning the training samples until the learning requirements are met.(3)
In the forward propagation process, for the input of the given training mode, calculate the output value of the network and compare it with the expected value. If the error cannot meet the accuracy requirements, the error is propagated back; otherwise, go to (2).(4)
Backpropagation process.The learning process of BP neural network is essentially an iterative process, which consists of forward propagation and backpropagation [20]. At this time, the characteristic data of the samples to be learned are input into the trained network, and then, the network can automatically “learn” the attributes of the samples according to memory as shown in Figure 3.Figure 3
Neural network calculation flow chart.


## 3.2. Dimensional Analysis and Data Preparation of the Impact of College Students’ Employment and Entrepreneurship Development Direction

Refer to the six categories of dimensions developed by the “College Student Evaluation Network” developed by the Education Management Information Center of the Ministry of Education for the comprehensive quality evaluation system of college students: academic quality evaluation, moral quality evaluation, literary and sports quality evaluation, psychological quality evaluation, innovation quality evaluation, and ability. The quality assessment and the dimension of the employment and entrepreneurship development direction of college students adopted by Yuan Jiaqian comprehensively determine the impact dimension of this paper, as shown in Table1.Table 1
The dimension of the influence of the development direction of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship.
Data nameThe data showsAcademic performanceThe cumulative academic performance of each subject in four years of college studentsEnglish language proficiencyIt is divided into three types: pass GET4, pass GET6, and fail the GET examPolitical civilizationIncluding students’ political status, group day activities during school, advanced class evaluation activities, and classmates’ mutual evaluation indexTechnological innovationIncluding various scientific and technological competitions, academic seminars and innovation and entrepreneurship activities participated in during the schoolStylistic artsIncluding various cultural activities and sports competitions participated in during schoolSocial volunteeringIncluding various school-organized social welfare contribution activities and personal social practice and volunteer services during schoolA total of 853 university students were included as research objects and their data from 2010 to 2018, and according to the six types of employment and entrepreneurship development directions previously mentioned, the comprehensive data and personal technical information data of 853 students in the school for four years were collected as the data samples of this experiment.The data sources of this paper are the basic information database of students, the comprehensive database of four-year academic performance in school, the student education management database, and the graduate employment information database.With the help of teachers and counselors from the relevant departments of the college, the relevant data of 853 students from 2010 to 2018 were successfully obtained, including the student’s personal information form, academic record form, school activity bonus form, award evaluation publicity form, and employment information form.(1)
Data Cleaning. Because these data come from different management systems of the school, the initially obtained data is very messy, there are many duplicate or invalid attributes, and not all attributes in the student data table are valuable for this experiment, so the obtained data must be further analyzed, including the deletion of the grades of absent students, the grades of students who did not enroll in courses, and the information of students who were suspended from school and dropped out.(2)
Data Integration. The scattered student information is statistically integrated into the annual data summary table of different classes of students, which contains all the impact dimension data of a certain class of students in a certain year. Some student information is listed, as shown in Table 2.Table 2
Annual data information table of a certain class of students.
Serial numberAcademic creditsEnglish language proficiencyPolitical civilizationTechnological innovationStylistic artsSocial volunteeringGraduation destination001144807.79580.92.420.3Employment00213750.25.376500.30Ascending00314950.48.2267.983.50.34Employment00417030.26.980301.860Employment00517110.25.088400.50Employment00616320.27.01217.420.30.15Employment00715230.24.5454.060.320Ascending00813780.26.056603.920Employment00914770.44.99820.20.350Not employed01017430.28.67814.862.90.3EmploymentBy reviewing the literature and sorting out the influencing factors of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development direction used in various research at present, the influencing dimensions of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development direction adopted in this experimental model are determined. On this basis, the source of the experimental database is determined, and the data is collected. The method proposed in this paper is to integrate, clean up, and convert the collected comprehensive data of students to form a standardized dataset, so as to lay a solid data foundation for subsequent research.


## 4. Result Analysis and Discussion

### 4.1. Implementation and Evaluation of the Prediction Model Algorithm for the Development Direction of College Students’ Employment and Entrepreneurship

Through the analysis and determination of the impact dimension of the development direction of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development and related data preparation, a normative dataset that can be used in the experiment is formed. This chapter will focus on the algorithm design ideas and processes of the prediction model for the development direction of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship, the basis for selecting the evaluation indicators of the prediction model, the implementation of the basic prediction model and its evaluation, the optimization model, and the optimization model evaluation process, and the algorithm is proved through experiments. The prediction effect is good and has certain application value.This prediction model evaluation method adopts the comprehensive evaluation of the Acc evaluation model and the loss function. Before introducing the features and benefits of the Acc evaluation model, it is important to understand the ROC curve. The output result of the two-class classifier is determined by the output probability and a predetermined probability threshold. The most used threshold is 0.5; that is, a positive sample is greater than 0.5, and a negative sample is less than 0.5. If the threshold is increased, the probability of a wrong prediction will decrease, but the probability of a correct prediction will also decrease. If the threshold is decreased, the probability of a correct prediction will increase, and the probability of a wrong prediction will also decrease and then rise. In fact, the selection of this threshold also reflects the classification ability of the classifier to a certain extent. The ROC curve is the curve used to measure the classification ability of the classifier.As shown in Figure4, the horizontal axis of the ROC curve is false positive rate (FPR), also called specificity, and the vertical axis is true positive rate (TPR), also called recall rate. The simplest explanation of FPR is the probability of predicting negative samples as positive. Obviously, the smaller the FPR value, the better the prediction effect. TPR is the probability of predicting positive samples as positive; the larger the TPR value, the better the prediction effect. It can be seen from the example of the ROC curve that its abscissa and ordinate are between [0, 1], and then, the area of the ROC curve is between 0 and 1.Figure 4
ROC curve example.To better illustrate the nature of the ROC curve, we should explain the four special points and diagonal lines on the curve: (0, 0) point represents that both FPR and TPR are 0, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples to be negative, and the prediction result is meaningless; (0, 1) point represents that FPR is 0 and TPR is 1, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples correctly, and the effect is the best; (1, 0) point represents that FPR is 1 and TPR is 0, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples incorrectly, and the effect is the worst; (1, 1) point represents that both FPR and TPR are 1, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples to be positive, and the prediction results are meaningless.The diagonal line is TPR = FPR, which means that the accuracy of the prediction result is 50%, and the prediction effect is equivalent to random classification.Based on the previously mentioned explanations, the following conclusions are drawn: the closer the ROC curve to the upper left corner, the better the prediction accuracy of the prediction model.The ROC curve can reflect the effect of the classifier to a certain extent, but it is not clear and intuitive enough. The Acc curve of the Acc evaluation model makes up for the deficiency of the ROC curve. As shown in Figure5, the value of Acc is the ROC. The size of the area enclosed by the curve and the X-axis, and the value can intuitively reflect the prediction effect; that is, the larger the value, the better the prediction effect, and the smaller the value, the worse the prediction effect.Figure 5
Example of Acc curve.The Acc value of the prediction model is shown in Figure6. The Acc value of the test set is stable at around 0.745, and the Acc value of the training set is stable at around 0.855.Figure 6
Acc value curve of prediction model.The loss value of the prediction model is shown in Figure7. The loss value of the test set is stabilized from 4.8 to about 0.4, and the loss value of the training set is stabilized from 4.4 to about 0.3.Figure 7
Loss value curve of prediction model.By comprehensively considering the Acc value and loss value of the prediction model, it can be proved that the prediction model has a good prediction effect, and further in-depth research and optimization experiments can be carried out.


### 4.2. Prediction Model Optimization

To further optimize the prediction model and make the prediction model have better prediction effect, the algorithm used in the experiment is further studied in this paper.The current prediction model has established a sequential model including one layer of network and six types of eigenvalue labels. Next, the basic model will be further optimized from the following three aspects:(1)
Add a network layer to the base model. From the original one-layer network structure to a three-layer network structure, by increasing the network level and enabling each layer to cooperate, the complexity of a single network layer can be effectively reduced, thereby making the prediction results better.(2)
Increase the SGD optimizer. The main algorithm for neural network training is gradient descent, and the most common optimization method for gradient descent is to add an optimizer to the model. The optimizer selected in the experiment in this paper is the second-order convergence, fast convergence speed, and good optimization performance optimizer SGD. SGD (stochastic gradient descent) refers to microbatch gradient descent. The minibatch gradient value of each iteration is calculated, and then, the parameters are updated. Since the parameters are calculated and updated each iteration, each sample may contain a lot of noise. So, the calculated gradient noise is large, which will make the training process oscillate violently. However, it is precisely because of this oscillation that after the local optimization is achieved, the oscillation will enter the next better point, so the optimization effect is very good.The Acc evaluation model and the loss function are used again to evaluate the prediction effect of the optimized model. Optimize the Acc value of the model. The Acc values of the test set and training set are both stable at around 0.835. Optimize the loss value of the model: the loss value of the test set is stable from close to 2.75 to around 0.35, and the loss value of the training set is stable from 23.8 to around 0.3. Compared with the basic model, the Acc value and loss value of the comprehensive optimization model are improved to a certain extent, so the optimization model is effective and the prediction effect is better.


### 4.3. Applications of Predictive Models

Import the existing student database into the prediction model and make predictions and compare and analyze the existing data samples according to the prediction results of the prediction model. There are a total of 835 pieces of student data, and 782 pieces of valid data are obtained after processing. Among them, some students’ employment and entrepreneurship development direction prediction results are shown in Table3.Table 3
Prediction result table.
Serial numberAcademic creditsEnglish language proficiencyPolitical civilizationTechnological innovationStylistic artsSocial volunteeringPredict the direction of career developmentActual graduation destinationConsistent situation001144807.79580.92.420.3EmploymentEmploymentYes00213750.25.376500.30AscendingAscendingYes00314950.48.2267.983.50.34EmploymentEmploymentYes00417030.26.980301.860AscendingEmploymentNo00517110.25.088400.50EmploymentEmploymentYes00616320.27.01217.420.30.15EmploymentEmploymentYes00715230.24.5454.060.320AscendingAscendingYes00813780.26.056603.920EmploymentEmploymentYes00914770.44.99820.20.350EmploymentNot employedNo01017430.28.67814.862.90.3EmploymentEmploymentYesAfter comparing all the prediction results with the actual employment situation of students, it is concluded that there are 663 correct data for the overall data sample prediction results, the overall prediction accuracy is 84.73%, and the error rate is 15.27%. The individual prediction data of various types of employment and entrepreneurship development directions are counted, and the individual prediction results are shown in Table4. The accuracy rate of individual result prediction is calculated by the ratio of the correct predictions to the total number.Table 4
Individual prediction results of employment and entrepreneurship development direction.
Career development directionNumber of predicted samplesActual number of samplesSingle prediction accuracy (%)Employment41139194.9Study24226292.4Go abroad485587.3Freelance293485.3Not employed413582.8Undergraduate11552.1Based on the overall experimental data, the best one-way prediction effect of this prediction model is “employment”, and “advanced education” ranks second. The one-way forecasting effect is the worst for “not graduated,” followed by “not employed.” In this regard, this paper makes the following analysis.(1)
Regarding the quality of the students, because the students are sampled from colleges and universities directly under the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China, which are world-class discipline construction, they are excellent in both personal quality and learning literacy, and their majors are currently popular for employment. So, it is reasonable for most students to find employment or further studies after graduation.(2)
Regarding the interference by families, the future employment and entrepreneurship development of college students is not only a matter of personal choice but also related to parents’ wishes and family factors. A small number of students will follow the wishes of their parents or change their employment and entrepreneurship plans according to their own family conditions.(3)
The amount of data for individual forecast items is small. Since the algorithm used in this experiment is a convolutional neural network algorithm, the characteristic of CNN is that the larger the training set, the better the effect. In this experiment, for example, there are only five people in “ungraded,” which only accounts for 0.64% of the effective data volume. Therefore, one-way training does not work well.(4)
The prediction algorithm and model have not yet reached the ideal limit, and there is still room for optimization and improvement.


## 4.1. Implementation and Evaluation of the Prediction Model Algorithm for the Development Direction of College Students’ Employment and Entrepreneurship

Through the analysis and determination of the impact dimension of the development direction of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development and related data preparation, a normative dataset that can be used in the experiment is formed. This chapter will focus on the algorithm design ideas and processes of the prediction model for the development direction of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship, the basis for selecting the evaluation indicators of the prediction model, the implementation of the basic prediction model and its evaluation, the optimization model, and the optimization model evaluation process, and the algorithm is proved through experiments. The prediction effect is good and has certain application value.This prediction model evaluation method adopts the comprehensive evaluation of the Acc evaluation model and the loss function. Before introducing the features and benefits of the Acc evaluation model, it is important to understand the ROC curve. The output result of the two-class classifier is determined by the output probability and a predetermined probability threshold. The most used threshold is 0.5; that is, a positive sample is greater than 0.5, and a negative sample is less than 0.5. If the threshold is increased, the probability of a wrong prediction will decrease, but the probability of a correct prediction will also decrease. If the threshold is decreased, the probability of a correct prediction will increase, and the probability of a wrong prediction will also decrease and then rise. In fact, the selection of this threshold also reflects the classification ability of the classifier to a certain extent. The ROC curve is the curve used to measure the classification ability of the classifier.As shown in Figure4, the horizontal axis of the ROC curve is false positive rate (FPR), also called specificity, and the vertical axis is true positive rate (TPR), also called recall rate. The simplest explanation of FPR is the probability of predicting negative samples as positive. Obviously, the smaller the FPR value, the better the prediction effect. TPR is the probability of predicting positive samples as positive; the larger the TPR value, the better the prediction effect. It can be seen from the example of the ROC curve that its abscissa and ordinate are between [0, 1], and then, the area of the ROC curve is between 0 and 1.Figure 4
ROC curve example.To better illustrate the nature of the ROC curve, we should explain the four special points and diagonal lines on the curve: (0, 0) point represents that both FPR and TPR are 0, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples to be negative, and the prediction result is meaningless; (0, 1) point represents that FPR is 0 and TPR is 1, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples correctly, and the effect is the best; (1, 0) point represents that FPR is 1 and TPR is 0, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples incorrectly, and the effect is the worst; (1, 1) point represents that both FPR and TPR are 1, indicating that the classifier predicts all samples to be positive, and the prediction results are meaningless.The diagonal line is TPR = FPR, which means that the accuracy of the prediction result is 50%, and the prediction effect is equivalent to random classification.Based on the previously mentioned explanations, the following conclusions are drawn: the closer the ROC curve to the upper left corner, the better the prediction accuracy of the prediction model.The ROC curve can reflect the effect of the classifier to a certain extent, but it is not clear and intuitive enough. The Acc curve of the Acc evaluation model makes up for the deficiency of the ROC curve. As shown in Figure5, the value of Acc is the ROC. The size of the area enclosed by the curve and the X-axis, and the value can intuitively reflect the prediction effect; that is, the larger the value, the better the prediction effect, and the smaller the value, the worse the prediction effect.Figure 5
Example of Acc curve.The Acc value of the prediction model is shown in Figure6. The Acc value of the test set is stable at around 0.745, and the Acc value of the training set is stable at around 0.855.Figure 6
Acc value curve of prediction model.The loss value of the prediction model is shown in Figure7. The loss value of the test set is stabilized from 4.8 to about 0.4, and the loss value of the training set is stabilized from 4.4 to about 0.3.Figure 7
Loss value curve of prediction model.By comprehensively considering the Acc value and loss value of the prediction model, it can be proved that the prediction model has a good prediction effect, and further in-depth research and optimization experiments can be carried out.


## 4.2. Prediction Model Optimization

To further optimize the prediction model and make the prediction model have better prediction effect, the algorithm used in the experiment is further studied in this paper.The current prediction model has established a sequential model including one layer of network and six types of eigenvalue labels. Next, the basic model will be further optimized from the following three aspects:(1)
Add a network layer to the base model. From the original one-layer network structure to a three-layer network structure, by increasing the network level and enabling each layer to cooperate, the complexity of a single network layer can be effectively reduced, thereby making the prediction results better.(2)
Increase the SGD optimizer. The main algorithm for neural network training is gradient descent, and the most common optimization method for gradient descent is to add an optimizer to the model. The optimizer selected in the experiment in this paper is the second-order convergence, fast convergence speed, and good optimization performance optimizer SGD. SGD (stochastic gradient descent) refers to microbatch gradient descent. The minibatch gradient value of each iteration is calculated, and then, the parameters are updated. Since the parameters are calculated and updated each iteration, each sample may contain a lot of noise. So, the calculated gradient noise is large, which will make the training process oscillate violently. However, it is precisely because of this oscillation that after the local optimization is achieved, the oscillation will enter the next better point, so the optimization effect is very good.The Acc evaluation model and the loss function are used again to evaluate the prediction effect of the optimized model. Optimize the Acc value of the model. The Acc values of the test set and training set are both stable at around 0.835. Optimize the loss value of the model: the loss value of the test set is stable from close to 2.75 to around 0.35, and the loss value of the training set is stable from 23.8 to around 0.3. Compared with the basic model, the Acc value and loss value of the comprehensive optimization model are improved to a certain extent, so the optimization model is effective and the prediction effect is better.


## 4.3. Applications of Predictive Models

Import the existing student database into the prediction model and make predictions and compare and analyze the existing data samples according to the prediction results of the prediction model. There are a total of 835 pieces of student data, and 782 pieces of valid data are obtained after processing. Among them, some students’ employment and entrepreneurship development direction prediction results are shown in Table3.Table 3
Prediction result table.
Serial numberAcademic creditsEnglish language proficiencyPolitical civilizationTechnological innovationStylistic artsSocial volunteeringPredict the direction of career developmentActual graduation destinationConsistent situation001144807.79580.92.420.3EmploymentEmploymentYes00213750.25.376500.30AscendingAscendingYes00314950.48.2267.983.50.34EmploymentEmploymentYes00417030.26.980301.860AscendingEmploymentNo00517110.25.088400.50EmploymentEmploymentYes00616320.27.01217.420.30.15EmploymentEmploymentYes00715230.24.5454.060.320AscendingAscendingYes00813780.26.056603.920EmploymentEmploymentYes00914770.44.99820.20.350EmploymentNot employedNo01017430.28.67814.862.90.3EmploymentEmploymentYesAfter comparing all the prediction results with the actual employment situation of students, it is concluded that there are 663 correct data for the overall data sample prediction results, the overall prediction accuracy is 84.73%, and the error rate is 15.27%. The individual prediction data of various types of employment and entrepreneurship development directions are counted, and the individual prediction results are shown in Table4. The accuracy rate of individual result prediction is calculated by the ratio of the correct predictions to the total number.Table 4
Individual prediction results of employment and entrepreneurship development direction.
Career development directionNumber of predicted samplesActual number of samplesSingle prediction accuracy (%)Employment41139194.9Study24226292.4Go abroad485587.3Freelance293485.3Not employed413582.8Undergraduate11552.1Based on the overall experimental data, the best one-way prediction effect of this prediction model is “employment”, and “advanced education” ranks second. The one-way forecasting effect is the worst for “not graduated,” followed by “not employed.” In this regard, this paper makes the following analysis.(1)
Regarding the quality of the students, because the students are sampled from colleges and universities directly under the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China, which are world-class discipline construction, they are excellent in both personal quality and learning literacy, and their majors are currently popular for employment. So, it is reasonable for most students to find employment or further studies after graduation.(2)
Regarding the interference by families, the future employment and entrepreneurship development of college students is not only a matter of personal choice but also related to parents’ wishes and family factors. A small number of students will follow the wishes of their parents or change their employment and entrepreneurship plans according to their own family conditions.(3)
The amount of data for individual forecast items is small. Since the algorithm used in this experiment is a convolutional neural network algorithm, the characteristic of CNN is that the larger the training set, the better the effect. In this experiment, for example, there are only five people in “ungraded,” which only accounts for 0.64% of the effective data volume. Therefore, one-way training does not work well.(4)
The prediction algorithm and model have not yet reached the ideal limit, and there is still room for optimization and improvement.


## 5. Conclusion

Based on the idea of convolutional neural network, this paper included 853 university students as research objects and their data from 2010 to 2018. We collected the comprehensive data and employment data of 853 students in the school for four years as data samples. We inputted six influencing factors, including academic performance, English proficiency, political civilization, technological innovation, sports and art, and social volunteer service, and set six categories of employment, including further education, going abroad, freelance entrepreneurship, unemployed, ungraduated, and employment and entrepreneurship development direction, built a prediction model for the employment and entrepreneurship development direction of college students, provided more scientific and effective decision-making basis for employment and entrepreneurship development direction for colleges and universities, and helped college students to correctly plan the employment and entrepreneurship development direction. The experimental results in this paper prove the validity of the prediction results, and to a certain extent, verify the user-friendly, modular, and easy-to-expand characteristics of the Keras framework interface. At the same time, it also proves that the sequential algorithm has convolutional properties in multilabel classification problems. This method has the advantages of high speed and high precision. The predicted student development direction can be further refined. The five types of college students’ employment and entrepreneurship development directions set in this experiment include employment, further education, going abroad, freelance employment, and entrepreneurship. In future research, various development directions can be refined for more in-depth research. For example, it can predict the type of enterprise unit where students are employed, the reasons for the grades of schools where students study, and so on. Through further detailed research, the prediction function of this prediction model is increased, and the overall application degree of the model is improved.



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*Source: 1495123-2022-06-28.xml*