# Predictive Model of Air Transportation Management Based on Intelligent Algorithms of Wireless Network Communication

Authors: Jiezhuoma La; Cees Bil; Iryna Heiets; Ken Anon Lau
Journal: Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing
 (2021)

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## Abstract

Due to the numerous factors that affect the air passenger traffic in the air transportation market and the randomness of various factors, in addition, the relationship between it and the air passenger traffic is very complicated, so the air passenger traffic forecast in the air transportation market has always been difficult to solve problem. This research mainly discusses the prediction model of air transportation management based on the intelligent algorithm of wireless network communication. This article uses the wireless network communication intelligent algorithm, comprehensively considers the influence of the GDP growth rate, population growth rate, total import and export volume, and other factors on the air transportation market, and draws a relatively complete forecasting model of aviation business volume. In this paper, we use an equal-weight method, linear combination model method, and Bayesian combination model method when selecting the combination forecasting method (these three methods). Because of the parallelism, robustness, nonlinearity, and other characteristics of the Bayesian network method, it adapts to the complex and highly nonlinear characteristics between air passenger traffic and its influencing factors. In the comprehensive prediction of the single model, the different information contained in the single model is used to achieve different combined prediction effects. The economic information and forecasting angle of the system can reduce systematic forecasting errors and optimize the prognostic results, which can make us more intuitively understand the difference of forecasting results brought by different combination forecasting methods. The Theil inequality coefficient of the ARIMA model is 0.004874, and the average absolute percentage error is 0.005914. This research will play a certain guiding role in the development of China’s civil aviation industry.


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## Body

## 1. Introduction

As an important indicator of China’s economy and people’s lives, civil aviation passenger turnover is an important basis for evaluating the performance of road transport organizations. From the perspective of civil aviation passenger traffic, it can reflect the traffic results of the entire civil aviation transportation department and the public’s demand for passenger transportation. Therefore, as the civil aviation industry receives more and more attention, the research and forecast of civil aviation passenger traffic are also very necessary and cannot be ignored.In order to further reduce the error, the combined model is introduced to predict the data of civil aviation passenger traffic. The basic idea of the combined model is to assign different weights to each single model to achieve the purpose of reducing errors and improving prediction accuracy. The research and forecast of civil aviation transportation and transportation play a vital role in the development of China’s aviation industry. It can make the development of air passenger transportation more rapid and efficient and at the same time provide a reference for civil aviation enterprises’ decision-making and overall arrangement and management.For economic, operational, and customer satisfaction reasons, airlines, airports, and passengers have a common interest in speeding up the aircraft boarding process. Zeineddine proposed several boarding strategies aimed at reducing boarding time. He proposed a dynamic optimization boarding strategy to shorten the boarding time, reduce interference on the plane, and let the group of passengers go to reserved seats together. The strategy he proposed achieves near-optimal performance without infringing on passengers’ right to queue up to enter their favorite seats [1]. The purpose of Rattier et al. is to predict the economic and environmental performance of two promising aviation fuels and energy technologies compared to traditional fuels, both of which are in the prototype stage. The basic method they researched is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), which is defined by the international environmental management standard series ISO 14000. Based on the environmental impact categories that are most important to human health, they believe that it is best to generate electricity for all-electric aircraft through a combined gas-fired power generation cycle [2]. Chatelain and van Vyve believe that aircraft noise is considered a serious environmental problem and can cause major political problems. They proposed a new mathematical model to deal with aircraft noise near the airport. Starting from the so-called fair social welfare function (SWF) for the maximization problem, they defined a new fair function for the cc-minimization problem [3]. Vilkov et al. proposed an effective solution to the mathematical planning problem: the knapsack problem, which is aimed at determining the best plan for the cumulative practicality of vehicles with limited capacity to load disaster reduction items. The novelty of their work is that, contrary to the classic formulation of the problem, it assumes that the usefulness of individual items is vaguely defined. The problem and its subsequent solutions are based on fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and dynamic programming theory. They proposed a simple enough algorithm to approximate the problem under consideration, which can be used for software development. The algorithm they proposed is illustrated by conceptual examples. They suggested that the described theoretical concepts should be applied to the material transportation management of rescue operation facilities supported by disaster reduction of EMERCOM units involved in disaster reduction within the framework of existing information systems [4]. Lu et al. believe that the multicriteria decision model is first used to estimate the key impact of sustainability-related international airport performance. They first used DEMATEL (Decision Test and Evaluation Laboratory) to build a complex system. They then use DANP (DEMATEL based on analyzing network processes) to identify the weights that are influential. Then, they used the hybrid improved VIKOR to select and improve the performance gap between the expected value of the international airport and the status quo. To demonstrate the proposed model, they applied it to three international airports in Taiwan as a case study [5]. Leon and Uddin believe that airlines are increasingly relying on ancillary service fees to generate revenue. They examined the heterogeneity among American International Airlines passengers and their willingness to pay for various ancillary services. They use Amazon Mechanical Turk to collect data to evaluate the antecedents of purchase intention and actual purchase behavior. When purchasing ancillary services for international flights, airline passengers have different preferences [6]. Li believes that in order to achieve efficient airport operations and the efficiency of timetable management, it is necessary to develop a model that can measure and check whether the current timetable is in line with the airport’s operational performance. He developed an optimized mathematical programming model to formulate the objective function of taxi fuel cost and the arrangement of the arrival/departure time points of the flight schedule during peak hours [7].The relationship between air passenger traffic is very complicated, so the forecast of air passenger traffic in the air transportation market has always been a difficult problem to solve. This research mainly discusses the prediction model of air transportation management based on the intelligent algorithm of wireless network communication. In this paper, we use an equal-weight method, linear combination model method, and Bayesian combination model method when selecting the combination forecasting method (these three methods). Because of the parallelism, robustness, and nonlinearity of the Bayesian network method, it adapts to the complex and highly nonlinear characteristics between air passenger traffic and its influencing factors.Section1 is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background, significance, research status, and research content of civil aviation passenger flow prediction based on the Bayesian network model.Section2 is the relevant theoretical basis, which mainly involves some basic knowledge needed in the paper, including the Bayesian network. The accumulation of knowledge can lay the foundation for the construction and experiment of the prediction model.Section3 is data processing, which mainly splits and counts the massive historical travel records of passengers, obtains the passenger flow of different routes every day over the years, and cleans and wavelet denoises the passenger flow of routes, so as to provide a good data basis for subsequent prediction models.Section4 is the analysis of the law of civil aviation passenger flow, mainly from the perspective of the overall travel law of passengers and the fluctuation law of airline passenger flow, so as to provide guidance for the prediction and modeling of passenger flow in ordinary working weeks and holidays.Section5 is the summary and prospect, which mainly summarizes the work done in the paper and analyzes and prospects the possible follow-up research contents.


## 2. Research Methods

### 2.1. Wireless Network Communication

A wireless sensor network integrates sensor technology, embedded computer technology, modern network technology, wireless communication technology, distributed intelligent information processing technology, etc. It is currently a new and emerging research hotspot that has attracted much attention in the world. Wireless sensor network technology uses tiny sensor nodes to obtain information. The nodes have self-organizing networks and collaborative work capabilities, and wireless communication methods are used inside the network.AFDX is a communication network based on traditional Ethernet. Different from the shortcomings of low half-duplex transmission efficiency of previous generations of data buses, AFDX uses a full-duplex network communication method. The advantage of this is to improve the transmission efficiency and solve the problem of data packet collision, but the subsequent transmission delay becomes a new problem. Since multiple communication data reaches the switch at the same time, the buffer of the switch has the risk of overflowing. Once it overflows, the data packet will be discarded, which is not allowed for the avionics system that requires extremely high real-time communication. This requires avionics engineers to avoid these problems through reasonable system design and build a real-time network with high throughput, low latency, and no packet loss.A wireless sensor network (WSN) is composed of a large number of cheap miniature sensor nodes deployed in the monitoring area. It is a multihop self-organizing network system formed by wireless communication. Its purpose is to sense and collect collaboratively and process the information of the sensing object in the network coverage area and send it to the observer. Sensors, perception objects, and observers constitute the three elements of a sensor network.The volatility curve of holiday passenger flow in the same route and the same holiday period is very similar, but the growth rate between the years is different, so the forecast of the holiday needs to combine the two to make the forecast. This paper mainly constructs two prediction models of fluctuation coefficient prediction model and similar sample loose wavelet neural network and conducts related experiments on the two models. Finally, by comparing and analyzing the prediction results, it is obtained that the loose wavelet neural network prediction model can effectively reduce holidays. The volatility curve and increment of the volatility curve and increment are well studied, and the forecast of holidays has a high accuracy rate.In recent years, China’s civil aviation market has maintained a rapid development trend. Its aviation market is the fastest growing aviation market in the world. The annual passenger turnover of its civil aviation has jumped to the second place in the world, and it is still growing at an average annual rate of 15% to 20%. In the face of a rapidly developing and changing market, the air transport market demand forecast, especially the forecast of the air passenger volume of important airports and routes, not only plays a very important role in the strategic planning, production planning, and production scheduling of airlines but also plays a very important role in the strategy of China’s aviation hub. Planning and construction, as well as the development and perfection of China’s entire logistics system, are of great significance. The aviation management based on wireless network communication is shown in Figure1.Figure 1
Aviation management based on wireless network communication.


### 2.2. Method Overview

#### 2.2.1. Exponential Smoothing Method

An exponential smoothing method is mostly used to predict short-term to midterm economic development trends and is a commonly used method in forecasting production. The exponential smoothing method includes the advantages of total average and moving average and does not give up historical data but only has a gradual weakening effect; that is, due to remote data, the weight will slowly converge to zero. The exponential smoothing method is a time series analysis and forecasting method based on the moving average method. It uses a certain time series forecasting model to calculate exponential smoothing values to predict the future of this phenomenon. It uses the basis that the exponential smoothing value of any period is the weighted average of the current actual observation value and the smoothed value of the previous period.(1) One-Time Exponential Smoothing Method. The general equation of the exponential smoothing method is [8]
(1)Ft+1=βxt+1−βFt.We can see that it only needs to know the observed valuex of this period and the predicted value F of the previous period for this period to make predictions. In addition, it also needs to retain the value of the smoothing index β.(2) Quadratic Exponential Smoothing Method. The quadratic exponential smoothing method can be roughly divided into the quadratic linear exponential smoothing method and the quadratic curve exponential smoothing method. Although some time series tend to increase or decrease, they are not guaranteed to be linear and may decrease as the shape of the quadratic curve increases. When the time series shows a nonlinear increase, the quadratic curve exponential smoothing may be more effective than the linear exponential smoothing. Its characteristic is that not only is the linear growth factor considered but also the quadratic parabolic growth factor is considered.The solving calculation steps of the quadratic curve exponential smoothing method are as follows:Calculate the single exponential smoothing value SC for periodr [9].
(2)SC=αxt+αSt−1.Calculate the double exponential smoothing valueSCv in period t [10]:
(3)SCv=αS+1−αSt−11.Predict the value after them period, that is, r+m period [11].
(4)x⌢=A+B+0.5Cm2.Among them,m is a positive integer (m≥1). α is the smoothing index, 0<α<1; the smoothing index is determined to be based on the principle of minimum mean square error; that is, first take multiple appropriate α to calculate the mean square error (MSE) corresponding to different smoothing indexes, and find out the equivalent mean square value of α at which the difference is the smallest. Generally speaking, if the sample data is less than 20, the predicted value calculated by the model is easily affected by the initial value. For the value of x, the initial value is generally the average of the first three or five numbers. If the sample data is greater than 20, it can be assumed that the initial value has little effect on the predicted value calculated by the model, and it is directly ignored. At this time, the first sampled data is usually used as the default initial value.


#### 2.2.2. Civil Aviation ARIMA Model

The ARIMA model is one of the most commonly used models to describe a stationary random sequence. We need to smooth it before modeling, such as by difference or logarithm.(1) Types of Time Series Models. These are divided into an autoregressive model (AR), moving average model (MA), autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), and differential autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA).It is an autoregressive model if a time series meets [12]
(5)Xt=χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1+⋯+δεt−n,if expressed by the lag operator [13, 14]:
(6)χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1β=η.Among them,η stands for the autoregressive operator. It shows that AR is stable in the autoregressive process.It is a moving average model if a time seriesXtsatisfies [15]
(7)Xt=χ−θε−θεt−θεt−1−⋯−θεt−n,whereθ is the regression parameter and χ is the white noise process; then, X is considered to be the q-order moving average process, denoted as MAq.In the autoregressive moving average modelARMAp,q, its general expression is [16]
(8)Xt=χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1+⋯+δεt−n−θη1−θη2−⋯−θηn.In addition, the stochastic process that combines the two parts of the autoregressive and moving average is denoted asARIMAp,d,q.In the seasonal autoregressive and moving average model (SARIMA), a seasonal time series refers to a time series with a certain periodicity. For example, for the data in this article, because the same month in different years has a strong correlation, we can call it a time with a seasonal change sequence. Generally, we have two methods to smooth the seasonal time series. One method is seasonal difference, and the other is trend difference. The model structure can be expressed by the following formula [17]:
(9)βBs1−BsDXt=δBsa.The moving average coefficient polynomial of the model can be equivalently denoted as [18]
(10)δBs∀X=δBsat.The above formula is called the simple seasonal autoregressive sum moving average model, abbreviated as theSARIMAP,D,QS model.(2) Establishment of the Time Series Model. The specific steps of the establishment, evaluation, and application of the ARIMA model are as follows:Step 1.
Analyze the nature and characteristics of the time series, including difference operation and stationarity test. The stationarity test is a feature of part of the time series. The precondition when we use the existing time series model to analyze it is that the series is stable.
The autocorrelation graph method can only intuitively distinguish whether the sequence is basically stable. It is observed that if the autocorrelation coefficient of the series quickly tends to 0, the time series can be considered to be stationary. However, if more autocorrelation coefficients fall outside the random interval, the time series can be considered unstable. Stationarity can also be tested with the following methods.Step 2.
Identifying and implementing the model are an important step in creating an ARIMA model. First, the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of time series samples must be calculated, and the order of the model must be determined by observing the corresponding graph. Generally speaking, by using one method, modeling is usually impossible to complete, and several verification models have to be estimated at the same time. Once the model order is determined, the model parameters can be estimated. Once the model is obtained, the adaptability of the model should be tested.Step 3.
Model prediction and model evaluation were performed. The B-J method generally selects the linear minimum variance prediction method. In addition, postmortem forecasts can be established to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast by comparing the predicted value with the actual value.


### 2.3. Gray Forecasting Method

The gray forecasting method processes the original data to determine the law of system change, thereby generating a regular data sequence and then determining the differential equation modeling and predicting the future development of things.This paper mainly studies the application of theGM1,1 model in air passenger traffic forecasting, using the theory and method of the GM1,1 model, establishes the GM1,1 prediction model, and uses MATLAB software to carry out example prediction. The establishment of the GM1,1 model mainly includes the following steps:
(1)
Assuming that the time seriesX0 has n observations, the corresponding differential equation is [19](11)dX1dt+aX1=μ,wherea is called the development ash number and μ is called the endogenous control ash number.
(2)
Accumulate the firstk elements of the same data sequence as the k-th element of the new data sequence. This is the process of data processing, expressed as [20](12)X1m=∑n=1mX0N.The original irregular data sequence is processed and preprocessed to make it have a certain regularity, and then, the generated data sequence is used for modeling and analysis instead of directly using the original data for modeling. This is exactly the gray system theory. Gray prediction theory believes that although the systems in reality are very complicated, there are certain regularities in the system. Therefore, we can think that the data sequence contains certain regulations. Preprocessing the original data sequence can dig out the regularity contained in it.(3)
ForGM1,1, the data matrix is [21](13)B=−0.5X11+X12−0.5X12+X13⋯−0.5X1n−1+X1n.(4)
Make the least square estimation, and find the parametersα and μ [22].(14)a=aμ=BTB−1BTYN.(5)
Establish the time response function, and the solution of the differential equation is [23](15)X1t+1=φX01−χa+μa.So far, the gray forecasting model has been established. After modeling, multiple models are needed for testing. There are many testing methods, including residual testing, correlation testing, and posterior error testing. The evaluation criteria of the gray prediction method are shown in Table1.Table 1
Evaluation criteria of the gray forecasting method.
PcEvaluation criteria>0.95<0.35G>0.80<0.50Qualified>0.70<0.65Barely qualified≤0.70≥0.65Unqualified


### 2.4. Combined Forecast of Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic

During the economic transition period, it is difficult to have a single forecast model that can closely match the reality of frequent macroeconomic fluctuations and provide consistent explanations for the reasons for the changes. For time series, although traditional forecasting methods have good forecasting performance, each method has its own scope of application and drawbacks. Most time series models have insufficient prediction of long-term trends, and in real life, data. It may be affected by many unexpected factors, leading to a rapid decline in the prediction performance of the model. The basic idea of the combined model is to use a variety of traditional prediction methods to predict the same column of data and then use some special methods to combine the prediction results to form a more accurate prediction result. The method that has been widely used was first proposed by Bates and Granger. The combined model can make up for the shortcomings of a single model, reduce the emergence of extreme prediction situations, and combine the advantages of the included models to be effective. Reduce errors and improve the generalization ability of the model.


#### 2.4.1. Model Type of Combined Forecasting

(1)
Linear model. This article mainly discusses linear combination forecasting. In actual forecasting, suppose that there aren kinds of forecasting methods for a certain forecasting problem. The actual value of the i-th period is recorded as M, and the predicted value and prediction error of the i-th method in the t-th period are N and δ, respectively. The predicted value of this method is fi, and the final predicted result is f, where [24](16)δ=M−Ni=1,2,⋯,nt=1,2,⋯,N.(2)
Equal power model.α is the vector representing the weight coefficient of the combined prediction, and δ is the prediction error vector of the first single prediction model, if [25](17)Aij=δTδ=∑t=1Nδδit.Then,A=Aijn×n is the error information matrix of the combined forecasting model error.
(3)
Bayesian combination model. Aimed at the problems existing in the existing air passenger traffic forecasting methods, this paper introduces the Bayesian network method to further explore the air passenger traffic forecasting. In the combined model, the type and number of individual models, as well as the weight of each model, remain unchanged. This article focuses on the forecast of air passenger traffic, systematically researches the forecast of air passenger traffic from the two levels of airport and route, and explores the use of the Bayesian combined model to improve the accuracy of air passenger traffic forecast. Then,ft satisfies [26](18)ft=∑i=1mωtft,∑i=1mωt=1t=1,2,⋯,n.


#### 2.4.2. Application Principles of the Combined Forecasting Method

(1)
Follow the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis; that is, make the economic theory knowledge and historical experience of the model play a role at the same time(2)
Systematic principle. The principle of a system is to regard the decision-making object as a system, to optimize the goal of the overall system as a standard, and to coordinate the relationship between the subsystems in the system to promote the integrity and balance of the system. Therefore, when making a decision, the nature of each small system should be incorporated into the overall balance of the large system, and the overall goal of the entire system should be coordinated with the goals of each small system. The systematic principle can be subdivided into the following two points. (a) The principle of integrity. When performing combined forecasting, the single forecasting method must have its own key points and related links. From the perspective of forecasting, macroeconomic forecasts based on the concept of national accounting should include production, distribution, and final expenditures. At the same time, these aspects should be linked to actual economic variables to obtain static and dynamic values. Use the value of its adjustability as the basis for economic forecasting. The forecast of the microeconomy needs to comprehensively examine different factors such as manpower, financial resources, material resources and production, and supply and sales from the perspective of the company’s internal operating conditions. (b) The principle of low relevance. From the perspective of forecasting technology, combined forecasting is best to combine different models and methods, with low correlation and big difference between them, so as to maximize the consistency of information. If the econometric method is combined with the time series method, the gradual method, and the system dynamics method, the application can have better results(3)
The principle of economy. Economic principles apply to the costs incurred by cost control and shall not lose profits due to inadequate control. Combination forecasting can modify the single forecasting model to a certain extent. If the prediction accuracy of the single prediction model is very high, when the combined prediction of the originaln predictions does not improve the results of the single prediction much, then the cost of data collection and model building is signed. At this time, the combined prediction is not of practical significance. The prediction process of the combined model is shown in Figure 2Figure 2
Combination model prediction process.


#### 2.4.3. Evaluation of the Combined Forecasting Method

Prediction accuracy is the level of pros and cons of the simulation effect of the predictive model, that is, how well the simulated value generated by the predictive model fits the original value. The following describes the two calculation methods used in this article to determine the accuracy of prediction.Theil inequality coefficient [27]:
(19)α=1/n∑Y−Y⟶2∑X−X∧2∑X−Y2.Average absolute percentage error [28]:
(20)PMAPE=1n∑i=1S−1Y+1+m.Among them,S is the actual value and Y is the predicted value. The value range is from 0 to 1. The smaller the value, the better the prediction effect.


#### 2.4.4. General Steps of the Combined Forecasting Method

In summary, we propose the following general steps for combined forecasting applications:First, establish and test each single model based on the economic theory and actual situation based on the existing data, and obtain the simulation sequence of each single model.Second, integrate the simulation results of a single forecast model to establish a combined forecast model to obtain new forecast results.Third, calculate the Theil inequality coefficient or the average absolute percentage error, and make a comprehensive evaluation of effectiveness.


## 2.1. Wireless Network Communication

A wireless sensor network integrates sensor technology, embedded computer technology, modern network technology, wireless communication technology, distributed intelligent information processing technology, etc. It is currently a new and emerging research hotspot that has attracted much attention in the world. Wireless sensor network technology uses tiny sensor nodes to obtain information. The nodes have self-organizing networks and collaborative work capabilities, and wireless communication methods are used inside the network.AFDX is a communication network based on traditional Ethernet. Different from the shortcomings of low half-duplex transmission efficiency of previous generations of data buses, AFDX uses a full-duplex network communication method. The advantage of this is to improve the transmission efficiency and solve the problem of data packet collision, but the subsequent transmission delay becomes a new problem. Since multiple communication data reaches the switch at the same time, the buffer of the switch has the risk of overflowing. Once it overflows, the data packet will be discarded, which is not allowed for the avionics system that requires extremely high real-time communication. This requires avionics engineers to avoid these problems through reasonable system design and build a real-time network with high throughput, low latency, and no packet loss.A wireless sensor network (WSN) is composed of a large number of cheap miniature sensor nodes deployed in the monitoring area. It is a multihop self-organizing network system formed by wireless communication. Its purpose is to sense and collect collaboratively and process the information of the sensing object in the network coverage area and send it to the observer. Sensors, perception objects, and observers constitute the three elements of a sensor network.The volatility curve of holiday passenger flow in the same route and the same holiday period is very similar, but the growth rate between the years is different, so the forecast of the holiday needs to combine the two to make the forecast. This paper mainly constructs two prediction models of fluctuation coefficient prediction model and similar sample loose wavelet neural network and conducts related experiments on the two models. Finally, by comparing and analyzing the prediction results, it is obtained that the loose wavelet neural network prediction model can effectively reduce holidays. The volatility curve and increment of the volatility curve and increment are well studied, and the forecast of holidays has a high accuracy rate.In recent years, China’s civil aviation market has maintained a rapid development trend. Its aviation market is the fastest growing aviation market in the world. The annual passenger turnover of its civil aviation has jumped to the second place in the world, and it is still growing at an average annual rate of 15% to 20%. In the face of a rapidly developing and changing market, the air transport market demand forecast, especially the forecast of the air passenger volume of important airports and routes, not only plays a very important role in the strategic planning, production planning, and production scheduling of airlines but also plays a very important role in the strategy of China’s aviation hub. Planning and construction, as well as the development and perfection of China’s entire logistics system, are of great significance. The aviation management based on wireless network communication is shown in Figure1.Figure 1
Aviation management based on wireless network communication.


## 2.2. Method Overview

### 2.2.1. Exponential Smoothing Method

An exponential smoothing method is mostly used to predict short-term to midterm economic development trends and is a commonly used method in forecasting production. The exponential smoothing method includes the advantages of total average and moving average and does not give up historical data but only has a gradual weakening effect; that is, due to remote data, the weight will slowly converge to zero. The exponential smoothing method is a time series analysis and forecasting method based on the moving average method. It uses a certain time series forecasting model to calculate exponential smoothing values to predict the future of this phenomenon. It uses the basis that the exponential smoothing value of any period is the weighted average of the current actual observation value and the smoothed value of the previous period.(1) One-Time Exponential Smoothing Method. The general equation of the exponential smoothing method is [8]
(1)Ft+1=βxt+1−βFt.We can see that it only needs to know the observed valuex of this period and the predicted value F of the previous period for this period to make predictions. In addition, it also needs to retain the value of the smoothing index β.(2) Quadratic Exponential Smoothing Method. The quadratic exponential smoothing method can be roughly divided into the quadratic linear exponential smoothing method and the quadratic curve exponential smoothing method. Although some time series tend to increase or decrease, they are not guaranteed to be linear and may decrease as the shape of the quadratic curve increases. When the time series shows a nonlinear increase, the quadratic curve exponential smoothing may be more effective than the linear exponential smoothing. Its characteristic is that not only is the linear growth factor considered but also the quadratic parabolic growth factor is considered.The solving calculation steps of the quadratic curve exponential smoothing method are as follows:Calculate the single exponential smoothing value SC for periodr [9].
(2)SC=αxt+αSt−1.Calculate the double exponential smoothing valueSCv in period t [10]:
(3)SCv=αS+1−αSt−11.Predict the value after them period, that is, r+m period [11].
(4)x⌢=A+B+0.5Cm2.Among them,m is a positive integer (m≥1). α is the smoothing index, 0<α<1; the smoothing index is determined to be based on the principle of minimum mean square error; that is, first take multiple appropriate α to calculate the mean square error (MSE) corresponding to different smoothing indexes, and find out the equivalent mean square value of α at which the difference is the smallest. Generally speaking, if the sample data is less than 20, the predicted value calculated by the model is easily affected by the initial value. For the value of x, the initial value is generally the average of the first three or five numbers. If the sample data is greater than 20, it can be assumed that the initial value has little effect on the predicted value calculated by the model, and it is directly ignored. At this time, the first sampled data is usually used as the default initial value.


### 2.2.2. Civil Aviation ARIMA Model

The ARIMA model is one of the most commonly used models to describe a stationary random sequence. We need to smooth it before modeling, such as by difference or logarithm.(1) Types of Time Series Models. These are divided into an autoregressive model (AR), moving average model (MA), autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), and differential autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA).It is an autoregressive model if a time series meets [12]
(5)Xt=χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1+⋯+δεt−n,if expressed by the lag operator [13, 14]:
(6)χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1β=η.Among them,η stands for the autoregressive operator. It shows that AR is stable in the autoregressive process.It is a moving average model if a time seriesXtsatisfies [15]
(7)Xt=χ−θε−θεt−θεt−1−⋯−θεt−n,whereθ is the regression parameter and χ is the white noise process; then, X is considered to be the q-order moving average process, denoted as MAq.In the autoregressive moving average modelARMAp,q, its general expression is [16]
(8)Xt=χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1+⋯+δεt−n−θη1−θη2−⋯−θηn.In addition, the stochastic process that combines the two parts of the autoregressive and moving average is denoted asARIMAp,d,q.In the seasonal autoregressive and moving average model (SARIMA), a seasonal time series refers to a time series with a certain periodicity. For example, for the data in this article, because the same month in different years has a strong correlation, we can call it a time with a seasonal change sequence. Generally, we have two methods to smooth the seasonal time series. One method is seasonal difference, and the other is trend difference. The model structure can be expressed by the following formula [17]:
(9)βBs1−BsDXt=δBsa.The moving average coefficient polynomial of the model can be equivalently denoted as [18]
(10)δBs∀X=δBsat.The above formula is called the simple seasonal autoregressive sum moving average model, abbreviated as theSARIMAP,D,QS model.(2) Establishment of the Time Series Model. The specific steps of the establishment, evaluation, and application of the ARIMA model are as follows:Step 1.
Analyze the nature and characteristics of the time series, including difference operation and stationarity test. The stationarity test is a feature of part of the time series. The precondition when we use the existing time series model to analyze it is that the series is stable.
The autocorrelation graph method can only intuitively distinguish whether the sequence is basically stable. It is observed that if the autocorrelation coefficient of the series quickly tends to 0, the time series can be considered to be stationary. However, if more autocorrelation coefficients fall outside the random interval, the time series can be considered unstable. Stationarity can also be tested with the following methods.Step 2.
Identifying and implementing the model are an important step in creating an ARIMA model. First, the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of time series samples must be calculated, and the order of the model must be determined by observing the corresponding graph. Generally speaking, by using one method, modeling is usually impossible to complete, and several verification models have to be estimated at the same time. Once the model order is determined, the model parameters can be estimated. Once the model is obtained, the adaptability of the model should be tested.Step 3.
Model prediction and model evaluation were performed. The B-J method generally selects the linear minimum variance prediction method. In addition, postmortem forecasts can be established to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast by comparing the predicted value with the actual value.


## 2.2.1. Exponential Smoothing Method

An exponential smoothing method is mostly used to predict short-term to midterm economic development trends and is a commonly used method in forecasting production. The exponential smoothing method includes the advantages of total average and moving average and does not give up historical data but only has a gradual weakening effect; that is, due to remote data, the weight will slowly converge to zero. The exponential smoothing method is a time series analysis and forecasting method based on the moving average method. It uses a certain time series forecasting model to calculate exponential smoothing values to predict the future of this phenomenon. It uses the basis that the exponential smoothing value of any period is the weighted average of the current actual observation value and the smoothed value of the previous period.(1) One-Time Exponential Smoothing Method. The general equation of the exponential smoothing method is [8]
(1)Ft+1=βxt+1−βFt.We can see that it only needs to know the observed valuex of this period and the predicted value F of the previous period for this period to make predictions. In addition, it also needs to retain the value of the smoothing index β.(2) Quadratic Exponential Smoothing Method. The quadratic exponential smoothing method can be roughly divided into the quadratic linear exponential smoothing method and the quadratic curve exponential smoothing method. Although some time series tend to increase or decrease, they are not guaranteed to be linear and may decrease as the shape of the quadratic curve increases. When the time series shows a nonlinear increase, the quadratic curve exponential smoothing may be more effective than the linear exponential smoothing. Its characteristic is that not only is the linear growth factor considered but also the quadratic parabolic growth factor is considered.The solving calculation steps of the quadratic curve exponential smoothing method are as follows:Calculate the single exponential smoothing value SC for periodr [9].
(2)SC=αxt+αSt−1.Calculate the double exponential smoothing valueSCv in period t [10]:
(3)SCv=αS+1−αSt−11.Predict the value after them period, that is, r+m period [11].
(4)x⌢=A+B+0.5Cm2.Among them,m is a positive integer (m≥1). α is the smoothing index, 0<α<1; the smoothing index is determined to be based on the principle of minimum mean square error; that is, first take multiple appropriate α to calculate the mean square error (MSE) corresponding to different smoothing indexes, and find out the equivalent mean square value of α at which the difference is the smallest. Generally speaking, if the sample data is less than 20, the predicted value calculated by the model is easily affected by the initial value. For the value of x, the initial value is generally the average of the first three or five numbers. If the sample data is greater than 20, it can be assumed that the initial value has little effect on the predicted value calculated by the model, and it is directly ignored. At this time, the first sampled data is usually used as the default initial value.


## 2.2.2. Civil Aviation ARIMA Model

The ARIMA model is one of the most commonly used models to describe a stationary random sequence. We need to smooth it before modeling, such as by difference or logarithm.(1) Types of Time Series Models. These are divided into an autoregressive model (AR), moving average model (MA), autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), and differential autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA).It is an autoregressive model if a time series meets [12]
(5)Xt=χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1+⋯+δεt−n,if expressed by the lag operator [13, 14]:
(6)χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1β=η.Among them,η stands for the autoregressive operator. It shows that AR is stable in the autoregressive process.It is a moving average model if a time seriesXtsatisfies [15]
(7)Xt=χ−θε−θεt−θεt−1−⋯−θεt−n,whereθ is the regression parameter and χ is the white noise process; then, X is considered to be the q-order moving average process, denoted as MAq.In the autoregressive moving average modelARMAp,q, its general expression is [16]
(8)Xt=χ+χε+χεt+χεt−1+⋯+δεt−n−θη1−θη2−⋯−θηn.In addition, the stochastic process that combines the two parts of the autoregressive and moving average is denoted asARIMAp,d,q.In the seasonal autoregressive and moving average model (SARIMA), a seasonal time series refers to a time series with a certain periodicity. For example, for the data in this article, because the same month in different years has a strong correlation, we can call it a time with a seasonal change sequence. Generally, we have two methods to smooth the seasonal time series. One method is seasonal difference, and the other is trend difference. The model structure can be expressed by the following formula [17]:
(9)βBs1−BsDXt=δBsa.The moving average coefficient polynomial of the model can be equivalently denoted as [18]
(10)δBs∀X=δBsat.The above formula is called the simple seasonal autoregressive sum moving average model, abbreviated as theSARIMAP,D,QS model.(2) Establishment of the Time Series Model. The specific steps of the establishment, evaluation, and application of the ARIMA model are as follows:Step 1.
Analyze the nature and characteristics of the time series, including difference operation and stationarity test. The stationarity test is a feature of part of the time series. The precondition when we use the existing time series model to analyze it is that the series is stable.
The autocorrelation graph method can only intuitively distinguish whether the sequence is basically stable. It is observed that if the autocorrelation coefficient of the series quickly tends to 0, the time series can be considered to be stationary. However, if more autocorrelation coefficients fall outside the random interval, the time series can be considered unstable. Stationarity can also be tested with the following methods.Step 2.
Identifying and implementing the model are an important step in creating an ARIMA model. First, the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of time series samples must be calculated, and the order of the model must be determined by observing the corresponding graph. Generally speaking, by using one method, modeling is usually impossible to complete, and several verification models have to be estimated at the same time. Once the model order is determined, the model parameters can be estimated. Once the model is obtained, the adaptability of the model should be tested.Step 3.
Model prediction and model evaluation were performed. The B-J method generally selects the linear minimum variance prediction method. In addition, postmortem forecasts can be established to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast by comparing the predicted value with the actual value.


## 2.3. Gray Forecasting Method

The gray forecasting method processes the original data to determine the law of system change, thereby generating a regular data sequence and then determining the differential equation modeling and predicting the future development of things.This paper mainly studies the application of theGM1,1 model in air passenger traffic forecasting, using the theory and method of the GM1,1 model, establishes the GM1,1 prediction model, and uses MATLAB software to carry out example prediction. The establishment of the GM1,1 model mainly includes the following steps:
(1)
Assuming that the time seriesX0 has n observations, the corresponding differential equation is [19](11)dX1dt+aX1=μ,wherea is called the development ash number and μ is called the endogenous control ash number.
(2)
Accumulate the firstk elements of the same data sequence as the k-th element of the new data sequence. This is the process of data processing, expressed as [20](12)X1m=∑n=1mX0N.The original irregular data sequence is processed and preprocessed to make it have a certain regularity, and then, the generated data sequence is used for modeling and analysis instead of directly using the original data for modeling. This is exactly the gray system theory. Gray prediction theory believes that although the systems in reality are very complicated, there are certain regularities in the system. Therefore, we can think that the data sequence contains certain regulations. Preprocessing the original data sequence can dig out the regularity contained in it.(3)
ForGM1,1, the data matrix is [21](13)B=−0.5X11+X12−0.5X12+X13⋯−0.5X1n−1+X1n.(4)
Make the least square estimation, and find the parametersα and μ [22].(14)a=aμ=BTB−1BTYN.(5)
Establish the time response function, and the solution of the differential equation is [23](15)X1t+1=φX01−χa+μa.So far, the gray forecasting model has been established. After modeling, multiple models are needed for testing. There are many testing methods, including residual testing, correlation testing, and posterior error testing. The evaluation criteria of the gray prediction method are shown in Table1.Table 1
Evaluation criteria of the gray forecasting method.
PcEvaluation criteria>0.95<0.35G>0.80<0.50Qualified>0.70<0.65Barely qualified≤0.70≥0.65Unqualified


## 2.4. Combined Forecast of Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic

During the economic transition period, it is difficult to have a single forecast model that can closely match the reality of frequent macroeconomic fluctuations and provide consistent explanations for the reasons for the changes. For time series, although traditional forecasting methods have good forecasting performance, each method has its own scope of application and drawbacks. Most time series models have insufficient prediction of long-term trends, and in real life, data. It may be affected by many unexpected factors, leading to a rapid decline in the prediction performance of the model. The basic idea of the combined model is to use a variety of traditional prediction methods to predict the same column of data and then use some special methods to combine the prediction results to form a more accurate prediction result. The method that has been widely used was first proposed by Bates and Granger. The combined model can make up for the shortcomings of a single model, reduce the emergence of extreme prediction situations, and combine the advantages of the included models to be effective. Reduce errors and improve the generalization ability of the model.


### 2.4.1. Model Type of Combined Forecasting

(1)
Linear model. This article mainly discusses linear combination forecasting. In actual forecasting, suppose that there aren kinds of forecasting methods for a certain forecasting problem. The actual value of the i-th period is recorded as M, and the predicted value and prediction error of the i-th method in the t-th period are N and δ, respectively. The predicted value of this method is fi, and the final predicted result is f, where [24](16)δ=M−Ni=1,2,⋯,nt=1,2,⋯,N.(2)
Equal power model.α is the vector representing the weight coefficient of the combined prediction, and δ is the prediction error vector of the first single prediction model, if [25](17)Aij=δTδ=∑t=1Nδδit.Then,A=Aijn×n is the error information matrix of the combined forecasting model error.
(3)
Bayesian combination model. Aimed at the problems existing in the existing air passenger traffic forecasting methods, this paper introduces the Bayesian network method to further explore the air passenger traffic forecasting. In the combined model, the type and number of individual models, as well as the weight of each model, remain unchanged. This article focuses on the forecast of air passenger traffic, systematically researches the forecast of air passenger traffic from the two levels of airport and route, and explores the use of the Bayesian combined model to improve the accuracy of air passenger traffic forecast. Then,ft satisfies [26](18)ft=∑i=1mωtft,∑i=1mωt=1t=1,2,⋯,n.


### 2.4.2. Application Principles of the Combined Forecasting Method

(1)
Follow the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis; that is, make the economic theory knowledge and historical experience of the model play a role at the same time(2)
Systematic principle. The principle of a system is to regard the decision-making object as a system, to optimize the goal of the overall system as a standard, and to coordinate the relationship between the subsystems in the system to promote the integrity and balance of the system. Therefore, when making a decision, the nature of each small system should be incorporated into the overall balance of the large system, and the overall goal of the entire system should be coordinated with the goals of each small system. The systematic principle can be subdivided into the following two points. (a) The principle of integrity. When performing combined forecasting, the single forecasting method must have its own key points and related links. From the perspective of forecasting, macroeconomic forecasts based on the concept of national accounting should include production, distribution, and final expenditures. At the same time, these aspects should be linked to actual economic variables to obtain static and dynamic values. Use the value of its adjustability as the basis for economic forecasting. The forecast of the microeconomy needs to comprehensively examine different factors such as manpower, financial resources, material resources and production, and supply and sales from the perspective of the company’s internal operating conditions. (b) The principle of low relevance. From the perspective of forecasting technology, combined forecasting is best to combine different models and methods, with low correlation and big difference between them, so as to maximize the consistency of information. If the econometric method is combined with the time series method, the gradual method, and the system dynamics method, the application can have better results(3)
The principle of economy. Economic principles apply to the costs incurred by cost control and shall not lose profits due to inadequate control. Combination forecasting can modify the single forecasting model to a certain extent. If the prediction accuracy of the single prediction model is very high, when the combined prediction of the originaln predictions does not improve the results of the single prediction much, then the cost of data collection and model building is signed. At this time, the combined prediction is not of practical significance. The prediction process of the combined model is shown in Figure 2Figure 2
Combination model prediction process.


### 2.4.3. Evaluation of the Combined Forecasting Method

Prediction accuracy is the level of pros and cons of the simulation effect of the predictive model, that is, how well the simulated value generated by the predictive model fits the original value. The following describes the two calculation methods used in this article to determine the accuracy of prediction.Theil inequality coefficient [27]:
(19)α=1/n∑Y−Y⟶2∑X−X∧2∑X−Y2.Average absolute percentage error [28]:
(20)PMAPE=1n∑i=1S−1Y+1+m.Among them,S is the actual value and Y is the predicted value. The value range is from 0 to 1. The smaller the value, the better the prediction effect.


### 2.4.4. General Steps of the Combined Forecasting Method

In summary, we propose the following general steps for combined forecasting applications:First, establish and test each single model based on the economic theory and actual situation based on the existing data, and obtain the simulation sequence of each single model.Second, integrate the simulation results of a single forecast model to establish a combined forecast model to obtain new forecast results.Third, calculate the Theil inequality coefficient or the average absolute percentage error, and make a comprehensive evaluation of effectiveness.


## 2.4.1. Model Type of Combined Forecasting

(1)
Linear model. This article mainly discusses linear combination forecasting. In actual forecasting, suppose that there aren kinds of forecasting methods for a certain forecasting problem. The actual value of the i-th period is recorded as M, and the predicted value and prediction error of the i-th method in the t-th period are N and δ, respectively. The predicted value of this method is fi, and the final predicted result is f, where [24](16)δ=M−Ni=1,2,⋯,nt=1,2,⋯,N.(2)
Equal power model.α is the vector representing the weight coefficient of the combined prediction, and δ is the prediction error vector of the first single prediction model, if [25](17)Aij=δTδ=∑t=1Nδδit.Then,A=Aijn×n is the error information matrix of the combined forecasting model error.
(3)
Bayesian combination model. Aimed at the problems existing in the existing air passenger traffic forecasting methods, this paper introduces the Bayesian network method to further explore the air passenger traffic forecasting. In the combined model, the type and number of individual models, as well as the weight of each model, remain unchanged. This article focuses on the forecast of air passenger traffic, systematically researches the forecast of air passenger traffic from the two levels of airport and route, and explores the use of the Bayesian combined model to improve the accuracy of air passenger traffic forecast. Then,ft satisfies [26](18)ft=∑i=1mωtft,∑i=1mωt=1t=1,2,⋯,n.


## 2.4.2. Application Principles of the Combined Forecasting Method

(1)
Follow the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis; that is, make the economic theory knowledge and historical experience of the model play a role at the same time(2)
Systematic principle. The principle of a system is to regard the decision-making object as a system, to optimize the goal of the overall system as a standard, and to coordinate the relationship between the subsystems in the system to promote the integrity and balance of the system. Therefore, when making a decision, the nature of each small system should be incorporated into the overall balance of the large system, and the overall goal of the entire system should be coordinated with the goals of each small system. The systematic principle can be subdivided into the following two points. (a) The principle of integrity. When performing combined forecasting, the single forecasting method must have its own key points and related links. From the perspective of forecasting, macroeconomic forecasts based on the concept of national accounting should include production, distribution, and final expenditures. At the same time, these aspects should be linked to actual economic variables to obtain static and dynamic values. Use the value of its adjustability as the basis for economic forecasting. The forecast of the microeconomy needs to comprehensively examine different factors such as manpower, financial resources, material resources and production, and supply and sales from the perspective of the company’s internal operating conditions. (b) The principle of low relevance. From the perspective of forecasting technology, combined forecasting is best to combine different models and methods, with low correlation and big difference between them, so as to maximize the consistency of information. If the econometric method is combined with the time series method, the gradual method, and the system dynamics method, the application can have better results(3)
The principle of economy. Economic principles apply to the costs incurred by cost control and shall not lose profits due to inadequate control. Combination forecasting can modify the single forecasting model to a certain extent. If the prediction accuracy of the single prediction model is very high, when the combined prediction of the originaln predictions does not improve the results of the single prediction much, then the cost of data collection and model building is signed. At this time, the combined prediction is not of practical significance. The prediction process of the combined model is shown in Figure 2Figure 2
Combination model prediction process.


## 2.4.3. Evaluation of the Combined Forecasting Method

Prediction accuracy is the level of pros and cons of the simulation effect of the predictive model, that is, how well the simulated value generated by the predictive model fits the original value. The following describes the two calculation methods used in this article to determine the accuracy of prediction.Theil inequality coefficient [27]:
(19)α=1/n∑Y−Y⟶2∑X−X∧2∑X−Y2.Average absolute percentage error [28]:
(20)PMAPE=1n∑i=1S−1Y+1+m.Among them,S is the actual value and Y is the predicted value. The value range is from 0 to 1. The smaller the value, the better the prediction effect.


## 2.4.4. General Steps of the Combined Forecasting Method

In summary, we propose the following general steps for combined forecasting applications:First, establish and test each single model based on the economic theory and actual situation based on the existing data, and obtain the simulation sequence of each single model.Second, integrate the simulation results of a single forecast model to establish a combined forecast model to obtain new forecast results.Third, calculate the Theil inequality coefficient or the average absolute percentage error, and make a comprehensive evaluation of effectiveness.


## 3. Results

First check the stationarity of the original sequence, and use EViews 8.0 to draw a time series chart for the monthly data of civil aviation passenger traffic from January 2016 to December 2020. It can be seen that the original sequenceY is nonstationary, and there is a trend and intercept. Perform a first-order difference after logarithmic operation.Then, it is necessary to determine the training samples and test samples of the network, input the training samples into the network for knowledge learning, and then use the test samples to verify the degree of learning. When the error between the predicted output and the target value exceeds the acceptable error range, the gradient descent method is used to adjust the connection weights and wavelet parameters until the predicted output has a good approximation to the target value or the maximum number of iterations is reached.It can be seen that the series after logarithmic transformation and difference is a stationary series, but the corresponding data test is needed to specify it, so the unit root test is performed on the data. The stationarity test of the sequence is shown in Figure3.Figure 3
Stationarity test of the series.TheSARIMA0,1,2 model is used to predict the passenger volume of civil aviation from January 2016 to December 2019, with a total of 48 data. Figure 4 shows the comparison between the predicted data and actual data.Figure 4
Comparison of forecast data and actual data.The comparison of some test data is shown in Table2.Table 2
Comparison of some test data.
TimeActual value (10,000 people)Forecast value (10,000 people)Relative error (%)20150232463328252.5320150334933317.695.0220160436703581.992.4020160535793739.024.4720170635413552.520.3320170734043497.092.7320180839154050.473.4620180941654126.290.9320191034983753.992.23The stepwise regression method is also used to predict the passenger traffic of civil aviation in the next 6 months, and the results are shown in Table3.Table 3
6-month civil aviation passenger traffic forecast.
TimeForecast valueYear-on-year growth2019015205.5112.10%2019025286.419.16%2019035493.156.87%2019045646.0311.27%2019055562.9510.97%Take the 2014 civil aviation passenger traffic data as the default initial value of the forecast; that is, takeS1=S2=S3=x1=5.56. At the same time, when determining the smoothing index, α=0.3, α=0.5, and α=0.8 are used to predict the passenger volume of civil aviation. The prediction results of different parameters are shown in Table 4.Table 4
Forecast results of different parameters.
Parameter valueExponential smoothing prediction valueα=0.3α=0.5α=0.8201426.7728.2825.6929.86201522.3231.4430.3233.20201631.2434.2232.2233.32201735.433.4235.1235.32201832.241.4232.3041.12201943.4245.2242.2245.3220204251.3543.2551.33MSE/2.1251223331.0445322345.444244243From Table4, we get the conclusion: when α=0.3, MSE =2.12; when α=0.5, MSE =1.04; and when α=0.8, MSE =5.44; that is, when α=0.5, the mean square error is the smallest, so choose 0.5 as the smoothing index for forecasting.Table5 shows the simulation results obtained by introducing the exponential smoothing calculation method after determining α=0.5. At the same time, the predicted value is obtained from the model: the predicted value in 2017 is 5,423 million people, the predicted value in 2018 is 600.01 million people, and the predicted value in 2019 is 6,620 million people.Table 5
Prediction results of exponential smoothing afterα=0.5.
YearsCivil aviation passenger traffic (ten million people)α=0.5St(1)St(2)St(3)200923.0520.4118.2116.23201026.7723.5920.9018.57201129.3226.4523.6821.12201231.9429.1926.4423.78201335.4032.3029.3726.57201439.2035.7532.5629.56201543.6239.6836.1232.84201649.0044.3440.2336.54In this paper, the Theil coefficient of inequality and the average absolute error percentage are used as the criteria for judging the validity of the model. At the same time, in order to see the different forecasting effects of various forecasting methods in the short-term and midterm forecasts, the fitting data of the five years from 2000 to 2005 is taken as the reference value of the short-term forecast, and the fitting data from 2000 to 2020 is used as the comparison of the midterm forecast. The short-term forecast results are shown in Figure5.Figure 5
Short-term forecast results.From Figure5, we can see that in the single forecast model for short-term forecasting, the Theil inequality coefficient of the exponential smoothing method is 0.01716 and the average absolute percentage error is 0.02209; the Theil inequality coefficient of the ARIMA model is 0.004874, and the average absolute percentage error is 0.005914; it shows that the prediction effect of these two models has been very good. Compared with the Theil inequality coefficient of the gray prediction model of 0.05702 and the average absolute percentage error of 0.08575, the prediction effect of the gray prediction method is poor. When observing the combined model, it is found that the Theil inequality coefficient of the combined model 1 is 0.01271 and the average absolute percentage error is 0.01933. It is larger than the result of the ARIMA model but better than the other two models; the Theil inequality coefficient of the combined model 2 is 0.005310, and the average absolute percentage error is 0.008438; the Theil inequality coefficient of the combined model 3 is 0.006131, and the average absolute percentage error is 0.01144. In general, the effects of the three combined models are not as good as the effect of the ARIMA model, but they are much better than exponential smoothing and gray forecasting. When making short-term forecasts, the prediction effect of the ARIMA model is the best, and the gray prediction method is the least effective. The result of the combined model is not necessarily better than the prediction effect of the single model.In the medium-term forecast, the Theil inequality coefficient of the exponential smoothing method is 0.02099 and the average absolute percentage error is 0.04272; the Theil inequality coefficient of the ARIMA model is 0.01851, and the average absolute percentage error is 0.03273; indicating these two models, the prediction effect of the gray prediction model has been achieved very well. The Theil inequality coefficient of the gray prediction model is 0.01851, and the average absolute percentage error is 0.03273. The gray prediction result is very close to the prediction effect of the ARIMA model, and the exponential smoothing method is relatively inferior. When observing the combined model, it is found that the Theil inequality coefficient of the combined model 1 is 0.01515, which is smaller than that of any single model, but the average absolute percentage error of 0.03532 is slightly smaller than that of the exponential smoothing method and larger than the other two separate models; The Theil inequality coefficient of the combined model 2 is 0.01584, and the average absolute percentage error of 0.03129 is smaller than that of any single model; the Theil inequality coefficient of the combined model 3 is 0.01839, which is smaller than that of the single model, and the average absolute percentage error is 0.01839. The percentage error of 0.03460 is larger than the two separate models. In general, the linear combination model has the best predictive effect, and the exponential smoothing method is less effective. The combination model has different optimization effects on the single model under different evaluation standards. The midterm forecast is shown in Figure6.Figure 6
Midterm forecast results.The forecast results of civil aviation passenger traffic in the next three years are shown in Figure7. The results also prove that the forecast results of the ARIMA model and the linear combination model are relatively similar, and the forecast effect is better.Figure 7
The forecast results of civil aviation passenger traffic in the next three years.It can be seen from the prediction results that, due to the integration of the grayGM1,1 prediction model, for the month of February when the Spring Festival travels, the prediction error is reduced compared with the previous seasonal exponential smoothing prediction model. But for the peak month in July, the gray model cannot identify the seasonality well, and the forecast error is larger than that in the previous gray GM1,1 forecast model. Among them, the predicted value in August is the closest to the true value, with an absolute error of only 2.7. The gray GM1,1 prediction model prediction results are shown in Figure 8.Figure 8
Incorporating the prediction results of the grayGM1,1 prediction model.It can be seen from Figure9 that after the three models are combined, except for January, February, and March, the predicted values of other months are already very close to the actual values. The prediction performance is greatly improved. The predicted values of the three model combinations are shown in Figure 9.Figure 9
The predicted value of the combination of the three models.We use this combined model to forecast the air passenger traffic in 2021. The predicted results are shown in Figure10. It can be seen from the forecast results that the air passenger traffic volume in 2021 will increase greatly compared with that in 2020. Thousands of passengers travel by plane conveniently and quickly, and this feature has become more apparent this year. Among them, the passenger volume in August reached 46.326 million, a record high in a single month, with a year-on-year increase of 11.21% and a month-on-month increase of 7.90%. On the one hand, long-term positive forces such as the continuous increase in the middle class, the gradual formation of family credit culture, the more open and free social lifestyles, and the acceleration of urbanization have formed a solid foundation for the rapid development of China’s air transport market. On the other hand, this is inseparable from the reform of domestic airports. More and more routes, increasingly convenient hardware facilities, and more user-friendly services have greatly increased the air passenger traffic this year. For example, major airports use new payment methods such as WeChat and Alipay as effective carriers for smart airports. In short, China’s civil aviation is developing vigorously and rapidly.Figure 10
Air passenger traffic forecast in 2021.


## 4. Discussion

This article mainly uses three single forecasting methods, namely, exponential smoothing method, stationary time series forecasting method, and gray forecasting method. In the research and forecast of civil aviation passenger traffic, these three methods are also more suitable and most commonly used. The exponential smoothing method can be used for repeated forecasts with or without seasonal changes. When the approximate model of the data is nonlinear, at this time, if the quadratic curve exponential smoothing method is used, the predicted value can track the change of the nonlinear trend. The stationary time series forecasting method is an advanced forecasting method suitable for any development model sequence, and it has a certain guarantee on the forecasting accuracy. The gray forecasting method is applicable to the exponential trend in the development of time series, and the data trend of civil aviation passenger traffic is also an exponential trend.By predicting the passenger traffic volume of civil aviation, in order to make air transportation play a full role in the development of the national economy and effectively promote the rapid and efficient development of air transportation construction, it is obviously very important to have an accurate grasp of the future development trend of civil air transportation. So it is very necessary to make correct predictions. From the perspective of macroeconomic analysis, this is the basic guarantee for the national road network planning. Technical issues such as identifying nodes, the direction and scope of line construction, and economic issues such as investment decision-making, material safety, personnel safety, and financial investment, have a lot to do with civil aviation passenger traffic. From a micro point of view, the forecast of civil aviation passenger turnover affects the technical nodes of a specific route, the scope of the design route, the type of equipment, and the project investment and income. With accurate forecast data as a reference, it can help accurately measure and estimate the economic costs and benefits of the project and reduce errors caused by investment decisions. At the same time, in many forecasting methods, many single forecasting models have indeed achieved relatively good forecasting results in many times.The prerequisite for this article to predict the passenger flow of airlines is to have good basic data of civil aviation passenger travel history. Since we provide encrypted historical travel records of passengers rather than direct passenger flow, we need to first obtain the required passenger flow from the massive passenger travel records. The amount of data involved is relatively large, so it is necessary to split, merge, and count historical data to obtain the required passenger flow, which increases the difficulty of obtaining passenger flow. At the same time, the flight may be cancelled due to the influence of bad weather. At this time, the statistical passenger flow will bring noise to the flow forecast, so the statistical passenger flow of the route needs to be cleaned. At the same time, passenger travel will also be affected by some accidental factors. In order to improve the accuracy of the forecast, it is also necessary to denoise the passenger flow of the airline [29, 30].However, passenger flow will also show certain regularity, such as similar periodicity for ordinary working weeks and more severe passenger flow fluctuations during holidays. In this way, we can qualitatively analyze the changing laws of passenger flow from different perspectives. These laws can provide a basis for us to choose an appropriate prediction model, thereby improving the accuracy of prediction.The development of China’s civil aviation is still in the historical stage of rapid development in quantity and rapid improvement in quality. The civil aviation sector continues to deepen the supply-side structural reforms and will continue for a long time. As an important indicator of China’s economy and people’s lives, civil aviation passenger turnover is an important basis for evaluating the performance of highway transportation organizations. From the perspective of civil aviation passenger traffic, it can reflect the traffic achievements of the entire civil aviation transportation department and the public’s demand for passenger transportation. Therefore, as the civil aviation industry receives more and more attention, the research and forecast of civil aviation passenger traffic are also very necessary and cannot be ignored. The emergence of the combined forecasting model is the combination of the above-mentioned individual models of different models to learn its advantages and obtain more economic information and forecast angles at different levels, which can reduce systematic forecast errors and optimize prognostic results. In order to make air transportation play a full role in the development of the national economy and effectively promote the rapid and efficient development of air transportation construction, it is very important to predict the passenger volume of civil aviation and have an accurate grasp of the future development trend of civil air transportation [31].


## 5. Conclusion

This research mainly discusses the prediction model of air transportation management based on the intelligent algorithm of wireless network communication. In this paper, we use the equal-weight method, linear combination model method, and Bayesian combination model method when selecting the combination forecasting method (these three methods). Because of the parallelism, robustness, and nonlinearity of the Bayesian network method, it adapts to the complex and highly nonlinear characteristics between air passenger traffic and its influencing factors. In the comprehensive prediction of the single model, the different information contained in the single model is used to achieve different combined prediction effects. The economic information and forecast angle can reduce systematic forecast errors and optimize prognostic results. In order to adapt to the continuous growth of civil aviation passenger traffic, China must accelerate the construction of airports, expand the airports whose traffic volume is about to reach saturation and at the same time make more reasonable route arrangements, and vigorously develop the civil aircraft maintenance industry and manufacturing industry to ensure passengers have a better travel experience.



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*Source: 1414539-2021-09-28.xml*