Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa.estero
Titolo: Microsoft

Porcaccia la miseria !!! (scusate mi è scappata)
le ho in carico a 100, cosa sta succedendo ?
Chi mi può risollevare il morale ?
Ciao
Silvano FewWord
par...@parfer.com

Chi mi può risollevare il morale ?
Nel breve termine non so. Pero' vorrei provare un'analisi di medio
lungo periodo.
Ci muoviamo verso uno scenario in cui il PC non sara' piu' come lo
pensiamo ora. Ci sara' solo un dispositivo munito di browser, ma tutte
le applicazioni gireranno sui vari server, portali, ecc.
Microsoft perdera' il potere che gli deriva dal monopolio di fatto
(peraltro guadagnato sul campo) nei sistemi operativi per PC e negli
strumenti di Office Automation. Onestamente, secondo me troveranno
comunque molti modi per far soldi (forse piu' di adesso), ma
sicuramente i competitors saranno piu' vicini.
Puo' darsi che quel "forse" preoccupi qualche investitore.
Io, ad esempio, ho deciso che, invece di aggiornare o cambiare (come
periodicamente ho sempre fatto) il PC, attendero' il primo dispositivo
internet serio (leggevo un mesetto fa, che lo stesso Bill Gates aveva
presentato un prototipo che dovrebbero commercializzare per circa
200$).
Per inciso, uno scenario di questo tipo, potrebbe colpire seriamente
sia Intel sia Amd. Potrebbe anche avvantaggiarle (questo mi sembra
meno probabile), ma l'incertezza non e' che sia molto amata,
soprattutto dagli investitori istituzionali.
Chi invece ci sguazzerebbe, ovviamente, sarebbe Cisco, che non vede
l'ora che ci sia un router per condominio...

Grazie mille, č piů di quanto mi aspettassi.
Silvano FewWord
__________________________________
par...@parfer.com

Chi mi può risollevare il morale ?
Il 19 sono stati resi noti gli utili dell'ultimo trimestre.
Gli utili hanno rispettato le stime, ma in parte sono stati determinati
dalla vendita di titoli che MS ha in portafoglio.
In altri termini, c'è un problema di "qualità" degli utili.
Infine, MS ha avvertito che potrebbe esserci in futuro un certo
rallentamento del tasso di crescita a causa del rallentamento della domanda
di P.C. nel mercato corporate.
In ogni caso, se le vendite al pubblico di Windows 2000 (inizieranno verso
la fine di febbraio) saranno buone, il titolo dovrebbe riprendersi.
Marco
Segue articolo del WSJ:
 
January 19, 2000 
Microsoft Net Tops Estimates,
Boosted by Portfolio Gains
By DAVID BANK 
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Microsoft Corp. relied on gains from its huge equity
portfolio to once again beat earnings expectations, in the
face of slowing corporate demand for personal
computers that held down revenue from its Windows
operating systems.
The cautions about future PC demand, and guidance from
its new chief financial officer, John Connors, that
revenue may decline slightly next quarter, caused the
Redmond, Wash., company's shares to fall in after-hours
trading.
In trading Wednesday, Microsoft shares were at
$106.96875, down $8.34375 from Tuesday's close.
For the fiscal second quarter,
ended Dec. 31, Microsoft reported
net income of $2.44 billion, or 44
cents a diluted share, up 23% from
net income of $1.98 billion, or 36
cents a share, in the same quarter last year. The 44 cents
per share of the latest period include a charge of
approximately three cents a share to cover Microsoft's
payment of an estimated $275 million to settle a private
antitrust suit by Caldera Inc. Excluding the charge,
Microsoft's net income grew by 31% to 47 cents a share.
But increased investment income contributed about four
cents per share to Microsoft's net income. That helped
Microsoft handily beat the consensus estimate of Wall
Street analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial
of 42 cents a share.
"It was a solid quarter, but not great," said Michael
Kwatinetz, an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston
Corp.
The Portfolio's Lift
Analysts in particular noted net income was bolstered by
unusually large earnings from Microsoft's equity
portfolio, which totals a staggering $19.8 billion. Of the
$640 million year-over-year increase in income before
taxes, the increase in investment income contributed
$436 million, compared with an increase of only $204
million from operating income. In the fiscal first quarter,
ended Sept. 30, operating income accounted for fully
$685 million of Microsoft's $817 million increase in
pretax income, compared with an increase of only $136
million from investment income.
Mr. Connors cast Microsoft's portfolio gains as a normal
byproduct of the surging stock market, rather than an
attempt to burnish its results by selling part of its
holdings. He said the gains resulted from a number of
small transactions throughout the quarter and that the
largest contribution was triggered by an acquisition that
forced Microsoft to recognize its profits.
"You should expect to see some quarters with gains
similar to the ones just completed," Mr. Connors told
analysts on a conference call.
Mr. Connors said Microsoft is entering a period of only
moderate revenue growth. He said earlier forecasts that
Microsoft will earn about 41 cents in the current quarter
ending March 31 are still on target.
"In absolute terms, we're happy with where we've ended
up, and in relative terms we're happy," Mr. Connors said
in an interview. But he said the kind of fast growth the
company generated in the past had become harder to
sustain. "We've cautioned for years that the law of large
numbers applies to everything, including us."
Sources of Revenue Gains
Revenue for the quarter was $6.11 billion, up 18% from
$5.20 billion last year. The growth was fueled in large
part by sales of Microsoft's Office suite and its SQL
Server database software. The company's productivity
and developer products business, led by Office and
SQL, experienced a 28% jump in revenue to $2.8 billion
in the quarter. Consumer products, which include
advertising and Internet access revenues from
Microsoft's Web operations, jumped 23% to $872
million.
Sales in Asia rebounded strongly, increasing 56% from a
year earlier, driven particularly by the
Japanese-language version of Office.
But revenues from Microsoft's Windows operating
systems and other platform products grew by only 6%
from the previous year, to $2.44 billion, and revenue
from retail versions of Windows 98 actually fell, the
company said.
Analysts said Microsoft had done a good job adding
revenue in the face of the year-2000 slowdown in
corporate technology spending and buyers who held off
in anticipation of the release of its new Windows 2000
operating system.
"From a revenue standpoint, the company did well to
come in as forecast," said David Readerman, a partner
with Thomas Weisel Partners in San Francisco. "This
could have been a period where revenues would have
slowed."
For the future, the biggest question mark is in PC
demand. Mr. Connors said independent PC system
builders had been hurt in comparison with the large
multinational PC makers. He said the large PC makers,
which negotiate volume discounts, pay Microsoft less
for each copy of Windows. Microsoft attributed some of
the softness in demand for its Windows NT operating
system to anticipation of its successor, Windows 2000,
which is to be released Feb. 17.
A Revised PC Outlook
Last quarter, Microsoft executives crowed about
"awesome" PC demand. Now, Mr. Connors admitted,
"We got a little ahead of ourselves in guidance about PC
growth on the business side," he said.
Rick Sherlund, an analyst with Goldman, Sachs & Co.,
said Microsoft has entered a period of slower earnings
growth, caused in part by the tough comparisons to the
blowout quarters of fiscal 1999 and in part by the slower
upgrade cycle for the new round of business products
based on Windows 2000, compared with Windows 98
and Office 2000.
"We're into a slower growing mode now," Mr. Sherlund
said. "We're going to go into a stretch for a year or two
without extraordinary upside."