Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa.estero
Titolo: Per Enrico e x chi segue l'Asia

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Purtroppo non avrai delle indicazioni su quei tre titoli ma è comunque
interessante leggere questa analisi
Consumption play
Commentary: Asia could be world's new growth engine
By Yiannis G. Mostrous, Wall Street Winners
Last Update: 12:15 AM ET Sept. 24, 2003
MC CLEAN, VA (Wall Street Winners) -- If I hear one more person saying that
Asia is a dangerous, extremely volatile, high beta investment place and
therefore unfit for the "prudent" investor, I swear I am going to cry.
People seem to forget that since 1997, the "developed" investment world is
the one that has assumed the above-mentioned characteristics, and is not in
a hurry to abandon them.
Regular readers of Wall Street Winners know that we have a structural
bearishness on the U.S. Our view is that the world economy is entering a
post 1990s era where the economic imbalances of the last mania will have to
be repaired and a new leader of sustainable economic growth will emerge.
Investors should expect a reversal of the past decade, namely a structurally
weaker dollar and slower U.S. growth.
For the global economy to genuinely grow economies with pent-up demand,
undervalued currencies and real opportunity to ease fiscal and monetary
conditions need to step up. And there is one region in the world that
possesses these characteristics -- Asia.
Coming on strong
Asia ex-Japan is the largest region in the world, with a 26 percent weight
in the global economy, and since the 1997 crisis it has become the net
creditor to the rest of the world. At the same time, the world's growth
engine -- the U.S. -- totally depends on foreign capital in order to cover
its deficits.
The majority of the funding comes from Asian central banks.
I concede that Asia is mercantilist, and that Asian banks have been buying
U.S. Treasurys in an effort to prevent their currencies from appreciating
against the dollar. This attitude emerged after 1997, when domestic
economies were damaged and exports were viewed as the only solution for
growth.
But because of the crisis, people and institutions cleaned their balance
sheets and tried to implement some real reforms. Currently, savings are
extremely high, the system is flush with liquidity, and financing costs are
very low.
Furthermore, the region's population is growing extremely fast, with the new
generation being more consumption oriented.
Hence, the main macro call for the next decade will be to determine the
point where Asia as a whole will stop financing other people's spending
habits and decides to finance its own. When -- and not if --this happens the
returns for farsighted investors will be colossal.
Investors should realize that if genuine growth is needed, some risks have
to be taken. And Asia will deliver that growth. Make no mistake, Wall Street
still drives the world, and there's a long way until decoupling. But the
fact that Asia and other emerging markets have a beta of around 0.6 is
becoming one more strategic reason for investors to own Asia.
Some suggestions
Recently Asia, and particularly China, has come under fire regarding its
currency policies.
As long as the world economy was growing strongly and the stock market was
soaring, no one appeared to have a problem with losing manufacturing jobs to
far away places. But a weak economic environment going into an election year
has politicians looking at things through a different prism.
Needless to say, what everyone conveniently forgets is that U.S. companies,
their stockholders, and the American consumer are the ones that benefit the
most from the status quo.
China is the main macro theme, and rightfully so. But our favorite long-term
investment destination is India. Briefly, India is a micro story, having
some of the most promising companies on earth and a huge potential pent-up
domestic demand. It also has two of the most promising exports of Asia: IT
and services outsourcing and generic pharmaceuticals.
Investors interested in India should take a look at companies like HDFC Bank
(HDB: news, chart, profile), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY: news, chart,
profile), and Infosys Technologies (INFY: news, chart, profile).
Hong Kong remains one of our favorite markets, and the place that should
benefit most from China's growth. Property remains this market's main story
and currently we are very positive on it. The easiest way to participate is
through the Hong Kong IShares (EWH: news, chart, profile).
Indonesia is another country where we're bullish on its private consumption
prospects. The only missing part is an increase in capex. As this improves,
Indonesia can be very lucrative for the patient investor. Some money should
be allocated to PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK: news, chart, profile).