Newsgroup: it.cultura.militare
Titolo: India offers US 120,000 troops for Afghanistan

Mi sa di bufala ma intanto parliamone.
0230 December 29, 2008
www.longwarjournal.org
,
India offers US 120,000 troops for Afghanistan
Please note that Pakistan has withdrawn a second divisional HQ from the 
NWFP. We assume its is HQ 23 Division plus the one brigade that went 
with the HQ to NWFP; Mandeep Singh Bajwa will let us know when he has 
confirmation. we are approaching the point where two-thirds of the 
reinforcements sent west are in the process of withdrawing. Please also 
note Bill Roggio at Long War Journal reports that in the Orakzi agency, 
one of the seven tribal agencies of the NWFP, Taliban has enforced 
Sharia law on 15 of 21 tribes in the agency. In other words, the 
Talibanization of the NWFP is proceeding rapidly. We also have an 
analysis on why Pakistani soldiers are refusing to fight the insurgents 
- we already knew why, but for the first time we have information from 
someone on the scene. We will give it to you tomorrow. But all in all, 
the US by insisting Pakistan fight the insurgents set itself up for 
failure. Again, we have said this before, we can now say it from another 
angle. US policy in the region has to change dramatically if there is to 
be hope of success in Afghanistan.
Our trusty correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa, informed us this morning 
that India has offered to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan. Naturally 
we asked Mandeep "are we being used by the Indians in a psyops game to 
put pressure on Pakistan?" Not that the Government of India knows we 
exist, but in all the movies about the media the Editor always asks if 
the paper is being played.
Mandeep's answer, paraphrased, was this: "I don't know at what level the 
offer has been made, but the Indian Army and Air Force are down to 
identifying specific units, formations, and squadrons..." - details, as 
we said, at Long War Journal - "...as well as discussing a specific name 
for force commander, plus working on the details of pre-deployment 
training, so this is a lot more elaborate than needed for a psyops game.'
We'd prefer to discuss this after we learn more, rather than waste your 
time with elaborate theories spun out of nothing ("Orbat.com's military 
sources say..."). But the following points are immediately apparent.
For the new US administration, this offer would be heaven-sent and just 
making it would put the US Government in debt to the Indians - "your 
other friends/allies talked, we walked." The administration could turn 
around to to its own people, and say: "Americans, you complain we are 
carrying the Afghan burden by ourselves, now we have a partner."
At Orbat.com we've been constantly talking about the need for more 
manpower; well, here you have a whacking big increment of manpower. With 
US/Allied troops it takes one to 75% of what Orbat.com considers a 
minimum force if Afghanistan is to be won.
In one deft swoop, India forces the Americans to chose Delhi over 
Islamabad. To the Indians the constant US attempt to "balance" the two 
countries has been a source of serious blood pressure since the 1940s; 
obviously if the Americans accept it has to be India First from now on 
and Pakistan gets marginalized. Moreover, the Indians put America up the 
creek without the paddle regarding Pakistan: "what is it your so-called 
ally is doing, compared to what we are willing to do."
The devious cunning of the Indian move becomes more apparent when you 
consider if the US government refuses, the American people are going to 
get on the Government's case: "The Indians are offering and you're still 
sticking with those slimey two-timers the Pakistanis?"
For India, offering a huge contingent takes the pressure off the Indian 
government to act aggressively against Pakistan. India does not have a 
launch a single sortie against Pakistan to punish it for acting against 
India. Indian government can tell its own people: "What good will a 
pinprick do? The Israelis have been bashing up the Palestinians for two 
decades, and where are the results? What we are doing is to strike a 
hard blow at Pakistan without crossing the Pakistan border and getting 
beat up by everyone for provoking war."
Plus India neatly destroys Pakistan's strategic depth objective. The 
Indians have been wanting to get into the act in Afghanistan for several 
years, because they know a Taliban government means more fundamentalist 
pressure on Pakistan and thereby on India. But the Americans have been 
refusing India help for fear of offending the Pakistanis. For India to 
get into Afghanistan in force is to again change the paradigm of 
Indian-Pakistani relations as happened in 1971 when India split East 
Bengal from Pakistan. For the last almost 40 years India's efforts to 
marginalize Pakistan have been stymied. If the US accepts the Indian 
offer, India gains hugely.
But right now a lot of American decision-makers do not care if Pakistan 
is offended because they see the latter has no interest in fighting the 
insurgents or helping the US against the Taliban. Once alternate supply 
routes are available, US can write off Pakistan and as a consequence, 
paradoxically, vastly increase its leverage in that country.
As for Pakistani/jihadi retaliation against India or the Indian 
contingent in Afghanistan, we've said before the Indians don't care. 
Their point is India is squarely in the sights of the jihadis: India is 
already under severe, sustained attack and unable to retaliate. As for 
the security of the Indian troops, that really is the last thing the 
Indians are concerned about. They want to go to Afghanistan to fight, 
not to protect their troops against suicide bombers.
Two other minor points in passing. By making this offer, India takes the 
wind out of Pakistan's sails because the latter has very successful 
turned the world's attention from the Bombay atrocity to getting the 
world to stop escalation between India and Pakistan. Every day that goes 
by, India has less diplomatic/geopolitical freedom to hit Pakistan. But 
if India has offered several divisions for Afghanistan, obviously the 
last thing the Indians are thinking of is attacking Pakistan - 3/4th of 
the Army troops (as opposed to the CI troops) India is earmarking for 
Afghanistan are from the three strike corps. So India undercuts 
Pakistani claims that Delhi is preparing to attack.
The second point we find interesting. PRC knows if Pakistan falls to the 
jihadis, Sinkiang is the next target. By offering to go to Afghanistan, 
India is directly helping Beijing. Which puts Beijing in a very awkward 
spot as India is a big rival for influence in Asia. Not only will 
Indians be helping PRC, if China does send troops to Afghanistan, Delhi 
will canoodle with Washington without competition from China. The 
Chinese will have no choice but to join the Afghan venture or lose 
influence in South and Central Asia, and with Washington.
To sum up: Orbat.com has been second to none in bashing the Government 
of India as incompetent and impotent. But with this offer, India has 
overnight changed the rules of game in South/Central Asia and struck a 
potentially fatal blow at Pakistan. In the end, this could become much, 
much bigger by an order of magnitude than breaking off East Pakistan in 
1971.


le bufale non possono essere discusse seriamente, se truppe indiane mettono 
piede in afghanistan l'india si becca 40 atomiche pakistane sulle sue prime 
40 città 

eliomassimi ha scritto:
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Hanno 40 testate i pakistani?

 ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:gkpji2$q1f$1...@nnrp-beta.newsland.it...

forse anche 70-80 così ho letto 

 Hanno 40 testate i pakistani?
Ma Eliomassimini non è Baroon, alias Unit731, alias KurtTank, alias... 
in uno dei suoi peggio riusciti travestimenti ?
--------------------
    Luca Morandini
www.lucamorandini.it
--------------------

 in uno dei suoi peggio riusciti travestimenti ?
Boh?
Dici che è lui, la Preferita di LUI?

 uno dei suoi peggio riusciti travestimenti ?
*** 
http://i41.tinypic.com/2dawrhc.jpg
--
Cheers,
Aleks


Allora lo plonko senza indugi :)


Cecchini Barnaba e il Commando Antola ha scritto:

Sto invecchiando.
Oi Baroon, togliti il .
co.uk
Non sei degno e LUI poi non ti passa al FIGLIO se continui così.
Un dubbio amletico.
Che Ko Yong-hui sia frutto dell'amore fra il Baroon e LUI?
Spiegherebbe l'alone di mistero che circonda la vicenda.

 sulle sue prime 40 città
beh, non si sa quanta e' l' effettiva consistenza numerica dell' Ira di 
Khan, ma se le si usasse sulle città indiane, poi le citta' pakistane a 
loro volta ricevono la scottatura del Sacro Fuoco di Agni...
... e nel frattempo il paki si trova ad avere sul fianco un gruppo d' 
armate, mica cazzi (i 120K soldati indiani)
Curiosa anche l' ipotesi che la mossa indiana potrebbe far entrare in 
campo la Cina, mettendo cosi' in azione l' unica altra potenza capace di 
schierare gruppi di armate (stiamo parlando del PLA, che notoriamente 
non ha problemi nel reclutare non divisioni ma armate e gruppi d' 
armate...) Presumo che anche nel peculiarissimo contesto operativo 
afghano ci sia ben poco da fare per i talebani con guarnigioni di queste 
dimensioni (nel caso di cina ed india, per ogni 100 perdite arrivano 
1000-5000 rimpiazzi)
Bufala ? vedremo. Non si puo' escludere che la soluzione definitiva al 
"great game" sia di localizzarlo.
Saluti,
Dott. Piergiorgio.