Newsgroup: it.politica
Titolo: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

What’s the number one reason we riot? Hunger — food becoming too scarce 
or too expensive. So argues a group of complex systems theorists in 
Cambridge, and it makes sense, Motherboard reports.
 
In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute (CSI) 
unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that 
swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one 
determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise 
threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to 
worldwide unrest.
 
Technology Review explains how CSI’s model works: “The evidence comes 
from two sources. The first is data gathered by the United Nations that 
plots the price of food against time, the so-called food price index of 
the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN. The second is the date 
of riots around the world, whatever their cause.” Plot the data, and it 
looks like this the above graph.
 
Black dots are the food prices, red lines are the riots. In other 
words, whenever the UN’s food price index, which measures the monthly 
change in the price of a basket of food commodities, climbs above 210, 
the conditions ripen for social unrest around the world. For billions 
of people around the world, food comprises up to 80% of routine 
expenses. When prices jump, people can’t afford anything else; or even 
food itself. And if you can’t eat — or worse, your family can’t eat — 
you fight.
 
Today, the food price index is hovering around 213, where it has stayed 
for months — just beyond the tip of the identified threshold. Low corn 
yield in the U.S., the world’s most important producer, has helped keep 
prices high.
 
“Recent droughts in the mid-western United States threaten to cause 
global catastrophe,” Yaneer Bar-Yam, one of the authors of the report, 
recently told Al Jazeera. “When people are unable to feed themselves 
and their families, widespread social disruption occurs. We are on the 
verge of another crisis, the third in five years, and likely to be the 
worst yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with 
the Arab Spring.”
 
Even before the extreme weather scrambled food prices this year, CSI’s 
2011 report predicted that the next great breach would occur in August 
2013, and that the risk of more worldwide rioting would follow.
 
But the reality is that such predictions are now all but impossible to 
make. In a world well-warmed by climate change, unpredictable, extreme 
weather events like the drought that has consumed 60% of the United 
States and the record heat that has killed its cattle are now the norm. 
Just two years ago, heat waves in Russia crippled its grain yield and 
dealt a devastating blow to global food markets — the true, unheralded 
father of the Arab Spring was global warming, some say.
 
And it’s only going to get worse and worse and worse. Because of 
climate change-exacerbated disasters like these, “the average price of 
staple foods such as maize could more than double in the next 20 years 
compared with 2010 trend prices,” a new report from Oxfam reveals. That 
report details how the poor will be even more vulnerable to climate 
change-induced food price shocks than previously thought. After all, 
we’ve “loaded the climate dice,” as NASA’s James Hansen likes to say, 
and the chances of such disasters rolling out are greater than ever.
 
 

 
 
 
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Meglio Soli che Male Derubati
 

                
 
Ho propvato col link, ma era troppo lungo. E poi non ï¿œ piï¿œ comodo 
leggere direttamente?
E' raro che qualcuno clicchi sui link, tranne che sia unsito bffo come 
questo:
 
IL TOMBALE DEL POVERO TESTA DI CLAPOS
 
http://www.ernestoalto.altervista.org/index.html
 
 
 

 Ho propvato col link, ma era troppo lungo. 
 
ROTFL


 ROTFL
 
Ora che hai riso, come spesso ti accade senza motivo, ti informo che 
molti server non accettano link che superano i 79 chrs.
 
e
 
 

 molti server non accettano link che superano i 79 chrs.
 
Un dramma. E provare con www.tinyurl?


> Un dramma. E provare con www.tinyurl?
 
 
Ecco, prova a cliccare su questo indirizzo con il pulsante sinistro del 
cosino bianco:
 
http://tinyurl.com/
 


 Un dramma. E provare con www.tinyurl?
 
SI fa prima a copincollare il pezzullo.
 
e
 
 

 ha scritto:

Puo' darsi. Ma come puoi facilmente vedere leggendo il mio post che 
quota il pezzo detto pezzo ï¿œ penoso da leggere perchï¿œ nel copincolla i 
caratteri speciali si sono trasformati in simboli incomprensibili.
Tu hai fatto prima ma chi legge fa dopo.


Tu hai fatto prima ma chi legge fa dopo.
 
Piu' buffo ancora e' che posta un articolo in inglese, lingua che lui
(il rettile aka ernesto) con conosce.

rokko ha detto questo sabato :

DA decenni tutti sappiamo inerpretare al volo i caratteri che 
sostituiscono le nostre lettere accentate.
 
e
 
 

 sostituiscono le nostre lettere accentate.
 
Puï¿œ darsi. Ma il testo che bai postato era in inglese. 
LOL...
Inoltre la formattazione originale, che da aria al testo e lo rende piï¿œ 
comprensibile, viene spesso stravolta dal copia incolla.


 comprensibile, viene spesso stravolta dal copia incolla.
 
Si parlava in generale e non di quel particolare post.
 
E' vero anche che a volte la formattazione ï¿œ importante, specie se 
contiene immagini: in tal caso ricorro anch'io a 
tinyurl.com
 oppure 
lascio perdere.
 
e
 
 

 
No si parlava proprio di quel post con indirizzo troppo lungo.
