Newsgroup: it.politica
Titolo: E tre...

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 000649
NOFORN
SIPDIS
TO THE PRESIDENT FROM THE CHARGE D'AFFAIRES
EO 12958 DECL: 05/31/2019
TAGS PREL, PGOV, IT
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ITALIAN PM BERLUSCONI'S JUNE 15
VISIT TO WASHINGTON
REF: A) ROME 97 B) MOSCOW 1273
ROME 00000649 001.6 OF 004
Classified By: Elizabeth L. Dibble, Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) 
and (d).
Summary
------- 
ś1. (C/NF) Mr. President, your meeting with Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi 
comes at a time when his closest advisors fear Italy is losing the 
credibility and influence that it enjoyed in Washington under the previous 
U.S. administration. In fact, while Italy has been a stalwart partner and 
participant in nearly every U.S.-led security operation around the world 
since the end of the Cold War, domestic political foibles and economic 
malaise are diluting its international influence. Italy continues to support 
our efforts in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Balkans, but its 
diplomatic, economic and military institutions, which the Berlusconi 
government and its predecessors have starved for resources, are sorely 
stretched. Berlusconi and his government have tried to compensate for Italy's 
failure to invest in its instruments of national power by presenting Italy 
as a mediator and interlocutor with difficult actors on major international 
issues. This self-appointed role has sometimes complicated international 
efforts. On Iran, for example, Italy's role under the previous government 
gave Tehran the impression that the international community was divided. 
More recently, GOI actions have provided a European platform for Russia's 
efforts to challenge NATO security interests in Europe. Berlusconi will 
certainly present himself as the best hope for moderating Russian behavior 
and will seek a signal from you that he has a mandate to speak on the West's 
behalf. He will also seek to use Italy's G8 presidency to address issues far 
beyond the scope and effectiveness of the organization. We should discourage 
both instincts. Italy has an important voice in the Euro-Atlantic community, 
but its efforts have proven constructive only when undertaken in 
coordination with the U.S. and other key allies.
Berlusconi the Politician
------------------------- 
ś2. (C/NF) Our relationship with Berlusconi is complex. He is vocally 
pro-American and has helped address our interests on many levels in a manner 
and to a degree that the previous government was unwilling or unable to do, 
since his return to power last spring as well as in his previous turns in 
government. In his first 90 days in office, he approved a controversial U.S. 
base expansion that had been halted by bureaucratic inaction and 
anti-American political opposition; eliminated caveats on Italian troops in 
Afghanistan; and allowed us to base two of three AFRICOM component commands 
in Italy. At the same time, he has criticized Missile Defense, NATO 
enlargement and support for Kosovo's independence as American provocations 
of Russia. He claimed Russian PM Putin's military push into Georgia in 
August 2008 was necessary to end the bloodshed of innocents caused by 
Georgian President Saakashvili. He displays an overweening self-confidence 
born of stable and strong political popularity that has made him deaf to 
dissenting opinion. The strict control he exercises over his government and 
party inhibits his staff from giving him unpleasant messages. His unorthodox 
governing style, coupled with his frequent verbal gaffes and high-profile 
scandals (including public bickering with his wife about his alleged 
philandering), have caused many, including some inside the U.S. government, 
to dismiss him as feckless, vain, and ineffective as a modern European 
leader.
ś3. (C/NF) His shortcomings notwithstanding, marginalizing Berlusconi would 
limit important cooperation with a key ally.  Berlusconi is one of Europe's 
most enduring politicians whose popularity in Italy will guarantee that he 
will influence Italian politics for many years still to come. He has 
arrested the trend of weak, short-lived Italian governments that has plagued 
this country since the end of the Second World War. When successfully 
engaged, he has shown the willingness to adopt policies, however unpopular, 
in line with ours -- including support for an expanded NATO role in 
Afghanistan and Turkey's membership in the EU. When ignored, he seeks to 
carve out a visible, international, and
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frequently unhelpful role for himself. Dealing with Berlusconi, therefore, 
requires a careful balance of close coordination with him and his key 
advisors while avoiding giving the impression that he can speak on our 
behalf with many of the world's difficult actors.
ś4. (C/NF) Italy held elections for the European Parliament on June 6 and 7, 
which reaffirmed Berlusconi's People of Liberty (PDL) party as Italy's 
largest party, reaching 35 percent, well ahead of the main opposition 
Democratic Party's 26 percent. While Berlusconi does not have a competitive 
rival in the center left, his party missed the 40 percent mark that it was 
aiming for, and witnessed the growth of xenophobic coalition ally Northern 
League (LN). PDL is a personality-driven party, whose members tell us that 
the ideology is little more than "Berlusconismo." The missed target of 40 
percent can be attributed to an over-ambitious Berlusconi, as well as the 
turnout-depressing effects of weeks of personal attacks by the center left 
in the runup to the election that included allegations of fiscal and sexual 
impropriety. An enduring result of the election will be the heightened 
competition between PDL and LN, who now dominate Italian politics. LN's 
tough stands on security and against immigration have won broad approval, 
even as Berlusconi has tried to stem the flow of PDL voters to LN by 
descending to the anti-immigrant rhetoric usually favored by the Northern 
League. Additionally, after this mild electoral setback, we can expect 
Berlusconi to use his White House meeting and his hosting of the G8 to 
underscore to Italians the important figure he cuts on the world stage.
Economic Crisis
--------------- 
ś5. (C) Prudent (some would say stodgy) banking practices allowed Italy to 
avoid the global financial sector meltdown. Italy's banks simply did not 
engage in sub-prime lending, and they did not buy the toxic assets that 
caused so much trouble in the U.S. and elsewhere. But Italy has not been 
able to avoid the pain of the worldwide recession that has followed the 
financial crisis. Italy's economic growth rate -- which was relatively low 
even before the crisis -- has dropped precipitously owing to sharp 
contractions in its export markets and falling domestic demand. Unemployment 
is expected to exceed eight percent this year and to rise further in 2010. 
Government tax revenues are, not unexpectedly, off sharply. Italy's already 
high level of government debt and the debt ceilings that come with EU 
membership significantly limit the government's ability to provide fiscal 
stimulus for the economy.
G8
-- 
ś6. (C/NF) Berlusconi's stewardship of his G8 Presidency has been marked by 
a proliferation of Ministerial and sub-ministerial meetings coupled with a 
last-minute change of summit venue from Sardinia to the earthquake-stricken 
city of L'Aquila that took even his Sherpa by surprise. He and his cabinet 
tend to regard Italy's G8 year more as an opportunity to curry favor with G8 
outsiders such as Egypt, Spain, and Libya than as a tool to address the 
world's problems. However, his desire to prevent the G8 from taking a back 
seat to the G20 on his watch has driven an ambitious agenda that may make 
useful contributions on climate change, Africa, development, and food 
security. He will be eager to work with you to build a legacy of G8 
deliverables that will bear the Italian label. The Major Economies Forum 
meeting during the G8 summit, which will include the leaders of 17-plus 
countries that emit over 80 percent of global emissions, will be an 
important chance to mobilize high-level consensus in the run-up to the 
December UN climate change talks in Copenhagen.
Guantanamo Detainees
-------------------- 
ś7. (C/NF) Berlusconi welcomed your decision to close Guantanamo, and has 
publicly and repeatedly underscored Italy's desire to support the move by 
taking detainees. FM Frattini recently outlined for AG Holder the efforts 
Italian officials have been making within the EU to negotiate a
ROME 00000649 003.6 OF 004
common EU framework that will open the door to individual country agreements 
with the U.S. While the junior partner in Berlusconi's coalition opposes 
taking any detainees, Berlusconi has made it clear that he views this as a 
moral commitment to support the U.S.
Russia
------ 
ś8. (C/NF) Dependence on Russian energy, lucrative and frequently 
nontransparent business dealings between Italy and Russia, and a close, 
personal relationship between Berlusconi and Putin have distorted the PM's 
view to the point that he believes much of the friction between the West and 
Russia has been caused by the U.S. and NATO. Berlusconi believes he, acting 
as a mediator, can restore a spirit of dialogue and cooperation between 
Europe, the U.S. and Russia, but largely on Russia's terms, through 
indefinitely postponing NATO's outreach to Ukraine and Georgia, diluting the 
EU's efforts to promote democracy in Belarus, and undermining OSCE's 
important role in promoting human and democratic values across the whole of 
Europe. Berlusconi has publicly proposed to mediate your relationship with 
Russian President Medvedev and is hoping you will give him a signal, however 
small, that he has your blessing to do so. Instead, you can let him know 
that we believe that issues of security that affect the transatlantic 
community should be addressed by the Alliance at large, and that the U.S. is 
not prepared to sacrifice values in exchange for short-term stability 
predicated on Russian promises of good behavior. And we will react -- and 
expect others who share these values to do so as well -- when Russia crosses 
a red-line, for instance in threatening the sovereignty of neighboring 
states.
Energy
------ 
ś9. (C/NF) Berlusconi's close personal ties with Putin and the very strong 
corporate ties between Italian energy parastatal ENI and Russia's Gazprom 
often put Italy squarely at odds with USG efforts to reduce Europe's 
dependence on Russian energy. For example, the Italian government is deeply 
ambivalent about energy projects that would help Europe diversify its energy 
imports, while at the same time it is supportive of other projects that 
would increase Europe's Russian energy dependency. ENI, 30-percent owned by 
the Italian Government, often dictates GOI energy policy and uses its 
influence, through the GOI, to block EU energy market liberalization plans. 
Italy is taking some steps, however, in the right direction, by supporting 
energy projects that will diversify its own energy sources. It would be 
helpful if you could raise with Berlusconi long-standing USG concerns about 
European energy security, emphasizing that increasing the flow of Russian 
gas around Ukraine is not the same as a policy seeking a true diversity of 
energy sources, routes and technologies.
ś10. (C) The Berlusconi Government is pursuing plans to bring back nuclear 
power to Italy. U.S.-based companies Westinghouse and GE face stiff 
competition from foreign rivals, particularly France, whose governments are 
heavily lobbying the GOI. A word to Berlusconi that the U.S. expects this to 
be a fair and transparent competition is critical if U.S. firms are to have 
a fair chance to bid for Italian nuclear energy projects.
Iran
---- 
ś11. (C/NF) With Italy frustrated by its exclusion from the P5-plus-1 
negotiating circle, Berlusconi will highlight Italy's would-be role as an 
interlocutor between the West, Israel and Iran, claiming excellent relations 
with all parties involved. He may also push for the U.S. to drop the P5 1 
framework altogether. Italian officials were thrilled by your commitment to 
embark upon direct diplomatic engagement with Iran, but cannot resist the 
impulse to try to be "present at the creation." FM Frattini has worked 
strenuously to lock in high-level Iranian attendance at the June 26-27 
Afghanistan-Pakistan Outreach meeting, hoping thereby to play host to the 
first U.S.-Iranian ministerial encounter in decades.
ROME 00000649 004.7 OF 004
Libya
----- 
ś12. (C/NF) Berlusconi has continued Italy's policy of developing an 
expanded relationship with Libya, largely in order to stem the tide of 
irregular migration from Libyan shores, but also to gain advantageous access 
to Libya's oil reserves for Italian firms, mainly ENI. As follow-up to the 
2008 Libya-Italy Friendship Treaty -- which committed Libya to sterner 
measures to deter irregular migrants from entering Italy from its shores, 
but also offered 5 billion USD in development assistance -- Libyan leader 
Qadhafi will pay an historic first official visit to Rome June 10-12, just 
before Berlusconi's Washington visit. As the current African Union 
President, Qadhafi will be at the G8 Summit in L'Aquila and we anticipate 
Berlusconi may lobby you to meet with the Libyan leader during your visit.
A Partner in Security
--------------------- 
ś13. (C/NF) Berlusconi has maintained a significant military commitment in 
Afghanistan (2,600 troops, mostly in Italy's Regional-Command West), but has 
dropped from fourth- to sixth-largest ISAF contributor as other countries 
like France and Canada have augmented their troop levels. At Stasbourg-Kehl, 
his government pledged modest increases to cover election security which, if 
made permanent, would put Italy back in the top tier of ISAF contributors. 
He has also  supported the creation of the NATO Training Mission in 
Afghanistan, doubling the number of Carabinieri police trainers to over 100. 
Italy has been an anemic contributor to international aid efforts in 
Afghanistan and Pakistan and has cut overall foreign assistance by more than 
60 percent in this year's budget. However, Berlusconi knows this is a 
priority area for the U.S. and will likely respond positively if you press 
him to do more in the region.
ś14. (C) Our shared security interests with Italy go beyond Afghanistan. 
U.S. facilities in Italy provide unmatched freedom of action and are 
critical to our ability to project stability into the Mediterranean, Middle 
East and North Africa. We have 15,000 U.S. military on six Italian bases and 
these installations host some of our most advanced capabilities deployed 
outside the U.S. Our bases and activities out of Italy are not uniformly 
popular, but PM Berlusconi, in this government as in his last, has made 
preserving this security relationship a priority, and the GOI has invariably 
come through on our top requests, despite domestic political risks. The GOI 
has approved the expansion of our base at Vicenza to consolidate the 173rd 
Airborne Brigade, the deployment of the USAF Global Hawk UAV in Sicily, and 
the establishment of AFRICOM Army and Navy Component Commands on Italian 
soil. Italy's leadership in other overseas missions helps us concentrate our 
forces on our top priorities. In addition to its troops in Afghanistan, 
Italy currently has 2,300 in the Balkans, 2,400 in Lebanon, and is the 
leading contributor to the NATO Training Mission in Iraq.
Conclusion
---------- 
ś15. (C/NF) The robust U.S.-Italian relationship provides us with major 
national security benefits in our military missions overseas, our own power 
projection, and on a broad law enforcement agenda, but the Prime Minister is 
an erratic steward. It might be tempting to dismiss Berlusconi as a 
frivolous interlocutor, with his personal foibles, public gaffes and 
sometimes unpredictable policy judgment, but we believe this would be a 
mistake. Despite his faults, Berlusconi has been the touchstone of Italian 
politics for the last 15 years, and every indication is that he will be 
around for years to come. When we are able to successfully engage him in 
pursuit of our common objectives, he has proved an ally and friend to the 
United States. He respects and admires the U.S., and is eager to build a 
strong and successful relationship with you. DIBBLE 

 Classified By: Elizabeth L. Dibble, Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4
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Parli della Dibble, coglione? Belusconi ti ha mangiato il cervello?