Newsgroup: it.politica
Titolo: E' il momento di cambiare dollari in altre valute?

franchi svizzeri, sterlina inglese, yen, etc?
Ognitanto vedo qualche segnale di cedimento del dollaro, e mi domando quanti
dollari ci sono nelle riserve della Banca d'Italia e della BCE
Ad esempio, se altri paesi produttori di petrolio cominciano a staccarsi dal
dollaro, che succede al deficit US, sostenuto solo dalla vendita all'estero
dei loro bond?
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-237/0611149653153702.htm
Iran is to follow a transaction mechanism on the basis of currencies other
than dollar in retaliation for the US anti-Iran banking policies.
"Since any transaction, made worldwide on the basis of dollar, should be
checked in the Clearing House in New York, we decided in line with the the
government's policies to carry out transactions in other hard currencies,"
said Minister of Economy and Finance Davood Danesh Jaafari in an interview
with reporters on Tuesday.
Speaking on the sidelines of the E-Banking Conference, Danesh Jaafari said
Iran plans to minimize use of dollar in its hard currency basket as certain
US banks tried to disrupt Iran's dollar-based transactions.
The minister said the US anti-Iran move is more harmful to it than to Iran.
He said the move in Iran's banking system will in the long-run downgrade
dollar as a hard currency.
"That's a move proposed not only by me as Iran's economy minister but also
by former governor of US Central Bank who always had the first say in the
US banking system and who expressed worry over devaluation of dollar in the
world foreign currency exchanges," he said. 

pulsar ha scritto:
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Diro' di piu', Ahmadinejad ha affermato che la maggior parte del piano
per la distruzione di Israele e' ormai stato fatto , per la
precisione il 50 percento, la parte piu' difficile.
Per cui aspetta, si libereranno presto territori in palestina per
investimenti
immobiliari, consiglio la collina di Meghiddo con vista sul mare.
Oppure converti  i tuoi dollari (prima che siano carta straccia) in
Rial
(iraniano naturalmente) e investi in villette a Bam nella provincia di
Kerman.
Ciao
Mario

a naso direi Euro, dato che e' la valuta destinata a prendere il posto dei 
dollari nelle transazioni... difficile trovare qualcosa di meglio, direi...
-- 
coloro che barattano parte della loro liberta' per un po' di sicurezza,
non meritano liberta' ne' sicurezza, e perderanno entrambe.
Benjamin Franklin 


puff...
la Grande Recessione sara' stata un periodo di enorme prosperita', al 
confronto...
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 taglieggiamento U$A, avendo un'alternativa?
mi pare che pure la russia si stia attrezzando in questa direzione...
peccato solo che oggi come oggi non si possa investire in rubli.

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Eh sì e' un vero peccato, i gonzi non sanno piu' dove investire !
Posso suggerire le coop ? Sono senz'altro piu' rosse che la
Russia.
Ciao
Mario

 
ok grazie. Giusto per precisare, mi chiedevo solo se la Banca d'Italia fosse
pronta a un possibile calo nel cambio del dollaro.
Non volevo esprimere un giudizio politico sull'Iran (imho Ahmadinejad e' un
pazzo pericoloso), l'articolo l'ho linkato semplicemente perche' e'
l'ultimo che mi era capitato in mano sul tema del dollaro.
Ne', tantomeno, volevo suggerire di investire in Iran. 
A proposito, dal 2002 in poi le varie banche nazionali hanno autonomia nel
decidere come ripartire le loro riserve in valute estere o decide tutto
Trichet? 
ciao

mario...@hotmail.com
 wrote:
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giusto per marcare un'altra delle tue figure da pirla, mi quoti la
parte in cui ho parlato di "rossi"?
ps: va benissimo anche un'altra parte, dove parlo di una qualsiasi
ideologia e/o religione...

Altro articolo sull'argomento, preso da Yahoo!, che non credo sia
"complottista"
Qualcuno conosce questo Kiyosaki? E' attendibile?
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/10932
In 1966, I was traveling the Pacific aboard a freighter. I was 19 years old
at the time and attending the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy at Kings Point,
N.Y.
One of the earliest lessons I learned at sea was about currency exchange
rates. Even though currency valuation was not a subject taught at the
Merchant Marine academy, my ship constantly traveled from one country to
the next, so my education in what is today called FX -- or foreign exchange
-- began.
Back then, the formal exchange rate in the banks was 360 Japanese yen to one
U.S. dollar. On the black market in Hong Kong, I could get 366 yen to the
dollar.
This made me aware of the games banks and countries play with their
currencies: In 1966, the six-yen difference told me that Japan was buying
more from Hong Kong, which is why yen was cheaper in the then-British
colony.
A six-yen difference might not seem like much, but for a student earning
just $105 a month every little bit counts. So I would wait for my ship to
stop in Hong Kong and then trade U.S. dollars for yen. Then I would travel
back to Japan and go shopping with the yen. Although the money I saved
wasn't substantial, the lessons it offered in currency exchange were
priceless.
The End of the Golden Age
It was pretty easy to understand foreign exchange back in the mid-60s,
since much of the world was following the Bretton Woods Agreement. Enacted
in 1944, this agreement made the U.S. dollar the global medium of exchange.
Because the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, figuring exchange rates was a
cinch. If we purchased too much from Japan, then the Japanese could ask us
for gold. If we had less gold, we had less money.
In 1971, President Richard Nixon changed everything by removing the U.S.
dollar from the gold standard. Suddenly, the dollar was still the world's
currency, but now it was backed by nothing. The United States was free to
print as much money as it wanted, and the world went along.
Because of this change, understanding foreign exchange became a bit more
complex. Today, to understand the world of currency, you need to think a
little differently -- essentially because things don't make sense.
For example, today, the United States is perceived to be the richest country
in the world. In reality, though, we're the biggest debtor nation in the
world. And who are we indebted to? What many consider to be a Third World
country: China.
For Richer and Poorer
The irony is that many Americans think we're rich and China is poor. Exactly
the opposite is true. This is because the removal of gold's backing from
paper money has created a virtual explosion in credit and liquidity. The
sheer amount of liquidity around the globe is incalculable.
This excess funny money causes people to feel rich and almost everything to
be more expensive. Today, stocks, real estate, automobiles, and gasoline
become more expensive as the dollar becomes cheaper.
While some people do become richer in this system, funny money actually
punishes working people who save money. It devalues the value of your work
and your savings, even though you may feel wealthier.
In overly simplistic terms, China and many countries in the world today lend
us billions of dollars to buy their goods. They send us products like
computers, televisions, cars, candies, and wines, and we send them funny
money in return.
Since they can't spend those dollars at home, they simply lend them back to
us so we'll buy more of their products. That would be like me going to my
local grocery store and asking them for a loan so I could buy their
tomatoes. A logical person would say, "That makes no sense." Yet it's
exactly what happened after 1971, and to many highly educated people --
bankers and politicians, for instance -- it somehow does make sense.
An Uneven Trade
You can find current smaller examples of such financial insanity. For
example, many people refinance their homes to pay off their credit cards.
This makes no sense; you and I know that someday that debt will have to be
paid.
Yet getting deeper into debt does make sense as long as you can repay your
lender with cheaper dollars, and as long as your lender is willing to take
those cheaper, less-valuable dollars. To use my earlier analogy, it would
be like buying an orange for $1 on credit and then paying him back for it a
year later with 80 cents. As long as the grocer is happy with this
arrangement, things are fine.
In real-world terms, one of the reasons the U.S. dollar only buys
approximately 110 yen instead of 360 yen today is because the Japanese
allowed us to continually devalue the dollar -- that is, to pay our debts
with cheaper dollars.
Over the years, the yen got stronger and the dollar got weaker simply
because we, as a nation, printed more and more money, all the while
consuming more and producing less. Japan would lend us money and we would
buy their products. Japan's economy boomed, and so did ours.
Game Over?
The problem today is that China isn't willing to play the game the way the
Japanese did. If we drop the purchasing power of the dollar, the Chinese,
by pegging their currency to the dollar, also drop the value of their
currency. The United States then pays back its debt with a cheaper dollar.
The irony is that we accuse China of playing games with their money. It's
more honest to say that China just isn't willing to play the game we want
to play.
But an even bigger problem is looming: It seems like the rest of the world
is less willing to play our money game. That's why the European Union
introduced the Euro. If China creates an Asian equivalent of the Euro
(which, admittedly, is a long shot) then the U.S. dollar could be in real
trouble.
If the oil-producing nations stop accepting the dollar and switch to gold or
the Euro, things will definitely get sticky. The world might be tipped into
a global recession and possibly even a depression.
For now, though, this funny money game continues. How long will it last? I
don't know. I do know that throughout history, all paper money has
eventually come back to its true value, which is zero. That's when the game
truly ends, and a whole new cycle of pass the buck begins. 


perche' "il mondo"? comprensibile l'America, e pure le nazioni legate a filo 
doppio all'economia Americana (Cina e Giappone in primis), ma il resto del 
mondo?
l'Africa non ha quasi nulla a che fare con gli USA, l'Europa, e' vero, e' 
piu' legata, ma i vantaggi di avere l'Euro come nuova "moneta forte" non 
dovrebbero ampiamente coprire gli svantaggi del tracollo USA? ed il MO, IMO, 
ha tutto da guadagnare e niente da perdere... in definitiva, a me pare che 
la recessione *dovrebbe* colpire solo gli Usa, una parte dell'Asia, forse 
l'australia e poco altro... mentre Europa e MO dovrebbero ricevere grossi 
vantaggi...
sono francamente curioso: l'analisi mi pare rigorosa, ma questa parte mi e' 
di difficile comprensione...
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Non ho detto che hai parlato di rossi, il mio invito era per i
rossi che eventualmente leggevano e volevano investire,
in pratica per unire l'utile al dilettevole.
Se a te direttamente non interessa, va bene così nessun problema.
Ciao
Mario

 Non ho detto che hai parlato di rossi [...]
sai che una risposta del genere me l'aspettavo?
per difendere le proprie parole e' richiesta una certa dignita'...

 
Nel caso del Medio Oriente, forse parte del problema sono le decine (o
centinaia?) di miliardi di dollari, derivati dalla vendita di petrolio,
nelle banche degli sceicchi.
Tutte riserve sensibili alla svalutazione del dollaro.

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Allora avevi parlato di rossi ?
Bene allora confermo che siccome la Russia non e' piu'
quella di una volta sei invitato a investire nelle coop le quali
sono di un rosso che piu' rosso non si puo'.
Allora ? Ho recuperato un po' di dignita'  ?
Ciao
Mario

 Mario
Magari una coincidenza, ma l'articolo ci ha azzeccato: EUR/USD oggi e'
stabilmente sopra 1.30
Invece mi sembra che della borsa del petrolio in Iran non si sia saputo
nulla.