Newsgroup: it.politica
Titolo: Sborio' guarda qua', molla Fazio e leggi

Sborio' so dati tedeschi
Hai capito Sborio', altro che zero contaggi.
 
1. The research issued by the Bonn University Hospital
The research issued by the Bonn University Hospital and made by the 
group of scientists including Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute of 
Virology), Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry 
and Clinical Pharmacology, Spokesman for the Cluster of Excellence 
ImmunoSensation2), Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and 
Public Health), Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical 
Biometry, Computer Science and Epidemiology).
 
In the framework of the research, all residents of Germany’s Gangelt 
were tested on the existence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and antibodies to 
SARS-CoV-2.
 
Gangelt is one of the most COVID-19-affected German municipalities. It 
is believed that the outbreak was caused by the carnival held on 
February 15, 2020. After the event, several people tested positive for 
SARS-CoV-2.
Preliminary result: the existing immunity was determined at about 14% 
(IgG against SARS-CoV2, method specificity>, 99%). About 2% of people 
had current SARS-CoV-2 infection detected by the method of polymerase 
chain reaction (PCR). The overal infection rate (the presence of a 
current infection or antibody in the body) was about 15%. The mortality 
(mortality rate), based on the total number of infected people in the 
Gangelt community, is approximately 0.37% based on the preliminary data 
of this study. The mortality rate based on the total population in the 
Gangelt is currently 0.06%.
 
2. A new Epidemiological bulletin from German Robert Koch Institute
A new Epidemiological bulletin from German Robert Koch Institute – 
“Estimation of the current development of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in 
Germany” issued on April 15 confirms that:
 
“in general, it is true that not all infected people have symptoms, not 
all who has symptoms go to a doctor’s office, not all who go to the 
doctor are tested and not all who test positive are recorded in a 
survey system. In addition, a certain amount of time passes between all 
these individual steps, so that no data collection system, however 
good, can make a statement about the current infection process without 
additional assumptions and calculations.”
 
Meanwhile, April 18 Daily Situation Report of the Robert Koch Institute 
shows that 86% of deaths, but only 18% of all cases, occurred in 
persons aged 70 years or older. The median age was 82 years. Pneumonia 
was reported in 2,764 cases (3%). COVID-19 related outbreaks continue 
to be reported in nursing homes and hospitals. In some of these 
outbreaks, the number of deaths is relatively high. The current 
estimate is R= 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.7-1.0).
 
3. On 13 April, the German National Academy of Sciences, Leopoldina, 
published its third ad hoc statement on the COVID-19 pandemic in 
Germany (the group of 26 Prof. Doctors)
The statement, which supplements its two predecessors, describes 
strategies for a stepwise lifting or modification of measures against 
the pandemic, taking into account psychological, social, legal, 
pedagogic and economic aspects. The document recommends in particular 
the re-opening of classroom primary and lower-level secondary education 
as soon as feasible, giving priority to the former, with observation of 
hygiene and physical distancing measures.
 
SARS-CoV-2 Mortality Is Distorted
Click to see the full-size image
 
SARS-CoV-2 Mortality Is Distorted
Click to see the full-size image
 
The National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina takes a stand with 
psychological, social, the legal, educational and economic aspects of 
the pandemic, following key recommendations:
 
Optimizing the basis for decision-making: The data collection, which 
has so far been largely symptom-based, leads to a distorted perception 
of the infection process. It is therefore important to collect the 
infection and substantially improve the immunity status of the 
population, in particular through representative and regional survey of 
infection and immunity status.
Enable a differentiated assessment of the risks both for social and 
individual dealings with the corona pandemic, contextual classification 
of the available data is important. Data to serious illnesses and 
deaths must be compared to those of other illnesses and related to the 
expected risk of death in individual age groups. A realistic one. 
Presentation of the individual risk must be clearly illustrated. This 
also applies to systemic risks such as overloading the health system 
and negative consequences for the economy and society.
To cushion psychological and social impacts: measures taken for 
implementation intrinsic motivation based on self-protection and 
solidarity is more important than the threats of sanctions. Providing a 
realistic schedule and a clear package of measures for gradual 
normalization increases the controllability and predictability for 
everyone. This helps to minimize negative psychological the physical 
andeffects of the current stress. Firs of all, aid and support should 
be provided for high-risk groups, such as children, who are 
particularly affected by the consequences of current restrictions in 
difficult family situations or people who are exposed to domestic 
violence must be provided become.
There are more another recommendations in the third ad hoc statement of 
the German National Academy of Sciences that now are being implemented 
by German leadership.
 
4. New research from the United States
Group of authors from Stanford University, Stanford University School 
of Medicine, University of Southern California, Health Education is 
Power, Inc., The Compliance Resource Group, Inc., Department of 
Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University School of 
Medicine, Bogan Associates, 8 ARL BioPharma, Inc., Sports Medicine 
Research and Testing Laboratory, Department of Epidemiology and 
Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Department 
of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine measured the 
seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County and 
made some conclusions.
 
The data received and conclusions of the US team are well corresponding 
with the research of German Bonn University Hospital taking into 
account that the German research came out on April 9, and the American 
one on April 14, with the reasonable assumption that the spread of 
SARS-CoV-2 in the German city of Gangelt began at least two week 
earlier (February 15, 2020) than in the American Santa Clara.
 
The US researchers estimated that under the three scenarios for test 
performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in 
Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). 
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 
people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more 
than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions. The population 
prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that 
the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of 
confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to 
calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
 
5. More data from the United States
Between March 22 and April 4, 2020, a total of 215 pregnant women 
delivered infants at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and 
Columbia University Irving Medical Center. All the women were screened 
on admission for symptoms of Covid-19. Four women (1.9%) had fever or 
other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested 
positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of the 211 women without symptoms, 
all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 
210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of 
these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 
33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had 
no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.
 
Our use of universal SARS-CoV-2 testing in all pregnant patients 
presenting for delivery revealed that at this point in the pandemic in 
New York City, most of the patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at 
delivery were asymptomatic, and more than one of eight asymptomatic 
patients who were admitted to the labor and delivery unit were positive 
for SARS-CoV-2. Although this prevalence has limited generalizability 
to geographic regions with lower rates of infection, it underscores the 
risk of Covid-19 among asymptomatic obstetrical patients. Moreover, the 
true prevalence of infection may be underreported because of false 
negative results of tests to detect SARS-CoV-2.
 
6. Hypothesis and justification from a Professor of Medical Statistics 
and Epidemiology at the Milan State University, Italy
The real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 
(compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which 
polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 
10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic 
cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics 
and Epidemiology at the Milan State University.
 
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which 
would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) 
having contracted the virus.
 
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as 
well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of 
deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
 
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19  would 
be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based 
solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be 
underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and 
deaths by a factor of 1/4.
 
7. SARS-CoV-2 mortality in Italy
As for now, it is a well-known publicly recognized fact that Italy 
labels anyone who died with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, 
regardless of the real causes of death, as the victim of the pandemic. 
At the same time, the objective fact is the increase of the overall 
mortality in Italy. According to Istat (Istituto nazionale di 
statistica), there is a general increase in mortality from all causes 
⩾20% from March 1 to April 4, 2020 compared with the average for the 
same period in 2015-2019. Bergamo is at the top in the growth of 
mortality among municipalities, + 382.8% of deaths.
 
However, the mortality grew not only and not so much from the causes 
associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
 
A few examples:
 
Albino town: from February 23 to March 27, 2019 – 24 people died; from 
February 23 to March 27, 2020 – 145 people (SARS-CoV-2 causes – 30 
dead).
Skandzoroshyate town: from January to March 2019 – 45 deaths; from 
January to March 2020 – 135 (SARS-CoV-2 – 20 dead).
San Pellegrino Terme town: March 2019 – 2 deaths, March 2020 – 45 
(SARS-CoV-2 – 11 dead).
These numbers could be explained by the lack of SARS-CoV-2 tests in the 
specified period.
At the same time, the mortality from other diseases increased 
significantly in the comparative period of April 1-4, 2020 compared to 
April 1-4, 2019. The lack of transparence of the Italian system also 
should be noted. For example, on April 17, Istat said that at that 
moment it was impossible to draw any conclusions about the increase of 
the mortality in Italy in general (as well as in regions and provinces) 
from the data obtained by Istat for the first four months of 2020 and 
compare it with the same period in 2019. These graphs and tables show 
statistics:
 
SARS-CoV-2 Mortality Is Distorted
Click to see the full-size image
 
8. SARS-CoV-2 mortality in Spain
Spanish Minister of Health Salvador Illa stated that every dead person, 
that tested positively to SARS-CoV-2, is considered as a SARS-CoV-2 
death.
 
The mathematical model employed by the University of Carlos III in 
Madrid (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, UC3M) demonstrates that in 
the last decade in Spain, an average of 1,150 people die from all 
causes every day in March. According to the records of acts of civil 
status, from March 16 (the day quarantine began), the number of daily 
deaths from all causes began to increase, sometimes reaching 1,400 per 
day. From March 17 to March 30, 21,243 deaths were recorded in Spain. 
This is 5,398 more than the prediction based on the extrapolation of 
data from previous years. The forecasted number for the same period is 
15,844 – 34.1% less. At the same time, the total number of deaths from 
whom SARS-CoV-2 during the period from March 17 to March 30, 2020 was 
7,591 people. This is a consequence of the general recognition of 
SARS-CoV-2 as the cause of deaths regardless of the actual situation. 
In any case, there is no exponential growth of the overall mortality in 
Spain or Italy.
 
https://www.ine.es
 
http://www.elespiadigital.com/index.php/noticias/historico-de-noticias/29014-2020-03-31-14-54-50
 
https://www.hoy.es/sociedad/salud/marzo-registra-muertes-20200402124928-ntrc.html
 
Conclusions
In this survey, we demonstrated the researches and approaches of about 
100 eminent scientists from around the world. In general, they agree 
that the current statistical data does not reflect the actual state of 
affairs, and the publicly distributed media estimates of the mortality 
rate are at least incorrect, and do not correspond to the actual 
picture.
 
The actual number of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection or people that 
already passed through COVID-19 early-stage or without symptoms is 
several dozen times higher than the public numbers show.
 
This is primarily due to the approaches and scope of testing. The 
public numbers have little to do with science. This is, to a greater 
extent, either media or politically motivated data. You should also 
consider the factor of a special picture of the course of the disease, 
which affects medical statistics (RKI Epidemiological bulletins).
 
Accordingly, the real mortality rate from SARS-CoV-2 is 25-60 times 
less than the figures presented to us by MSM and a number of 
governments.
 
The number of people with SARS-CoV-2 virus, but without the COVID-19 
disease or with a mild form of the disease, according to various 
estimates, ranges from 85% to 95%. This group, as a rule, does not fall 
into official statistics, as it is not tested, not hospitalized, and 
does not seek medical help.
 
The negative consequences for life and health of people from 
ill-conceived social measures can at times surpass the threat posed by 
SARS-CoV-2. There has been a significant increase in the mortality from 
diseases unrelated to SARS-CoV-2 already.
 
Countries, whose leadership works closely with scientists, consistently 
and quickly responds to changes in the situation and the emergence of 
new data, will receive a huge advantage in the post-COVID-19 world.
 
The current actions of politicians in a number of countries are 
difficult to explain with anything other than incompetence or 
deliberate actions to achieve their personal/clan political ambitions 
or promote interests of external actors.

 external actors.
 
Ma staran mica parlando di me no?
Sborio' dimme de no, guarda che te mollo Casali'.