Newsgroup: it.politica
Titolo: Yen e dollaro

come dicevo i giochi monetari sono complicati e non e' che deprezzare il 
dollaro causa anche la caduta dello yen "agganciato" al dollaro anzi... 
Gecko studia somaro.
http://www.china-ready.com/news/Nov2004/YuanRisesDollarFallsToNewRecords110504.htm
Yuan Rises, Dollar Falls To New Records
      by Paul Denlinger
     Posted Nov. 5, 2004
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The Chinese yuan has surged to new highs against the US dollar on 
Singapore's forward markets on fresh speculation that Chinese officials will 
revalue the currency upward against the US dollar. Prices on the market 
imply the expectation that the yuan will trade at 7.937 yuan to the dollar 
in 12 months, or a rise of 4.3%.
The yuan is not the only currency to rise against the dollar. The dollar 
fell to a new low against the euro of 1.2927 today on currency markets.
As the Bush administration plans for its second term, it is faced with an 
urgent need to finance record deficits as it domestically cuts taxes. Vice 
President Cheney has publicly stated that deficits don't matter, but many 
economists don't share that view. Seventy percent of US economic activity is 
based on consumer spending, and for the past several years, US consumers 
have been living and spending beyond their means, digging into their savings 
to cover their spending.
On a national level, the US has depended mainly on the Chinese and Japanese 
central banks purchases of US treasury bonds to finance its deficit. A 
revaluation of the yuan upwards would amount to a devaluation of these bonds 
for the Chinese.
However, the US is limited in how much it can raise interest rates, as that 
would hurt domestic US activity, and consumer spending in particular. The US 
will have to use all means at its disposal to get Asian central banks to 
continue financing its deficit until US productivity and economic activity 
rises.
There are signs though, that the Asians want to cut their reliance and 
exposure to the US economy. The euro is now an attractive international 
reserve currency compared to the US dollar. On the trade policy front, the 
Asians are continuing to work on free trade agreements (FTAs) within the 
Asian zone, which will reduce their dependency on the US economy.
Since the Asian economies, with China in particular, are now the engines of 
world economic growth, a sizable part of the second Bush administration's 
time will be spent on convincing international institutional investors why 
they should continue to finance US debt at favorable terms.
If the US is unable or unwilling to offer more attractive terms on 
dollar-denominated debt, it is likely that the Asians will seek to reduce 
their dependence and exposure to the US economy, both on the currency and 
trade dependency levels. Overall, this may lead to a disengagement of the US 
economy from the European and Asian trading blocs.
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 al dollaro anzi... 
Certo, asino...dello Yen no di sicuro...anche perche quella č la 
moneta GIAPPONESE.
La moneta CINESE č lo Yuan...triste uomo inutile...
Cmq, dato che ci sei, avvisa pure Pelanda e tutti gli altri 
economisti...quando li convincerai delle tue buone ragioni, ci farň un 
pensiero pure io...
Ok, sciocco uomo ?
Saluti
Il GecKo
-- 
I videogiochi non influenzano i bambini. Voglio dire, se Pac-Man 
avesse influenzato la nostra generazione, staremmo tutti saltando in 
sale scure, masticando pillole magiche e ascoltando musica elettronica 
ripetitiva." -Kristian Wilson, Nintendo Inc
Smettila di dire queste cazzate!! Le armi ci sono!!Mi vien voglia di 
andare in Iraq domani solo per trovarle e poterti cosě sputtanare! 
(Guelfo su it.politica) 


Per servirla...
:-)
