Newsgroup: it.politica
Titolo: Estratto da un lungo studio sui rapprti Cina-Afghanistan

PREVISIONI ERRATE ma alcune considerazione giuste:
 
However, the situation in Afghanistan today is quite different from that of the 1980s, not to say the nineteenth century.	
 
 The most significant difference is that now all the great powers in the 
world support the Afghan government and no single country stands by the Taliban. In addition, in spite of their shortcomings, the secular political institutions are preferred, by a significant part of the population, compared with an extreme religious regime. Further, the pullout of foreign troops 
will have a positive impact, removing a major irritating factor used by the Taliban for its benefit. 
Finally, the Afghan government has much stronger military forces than does the Taliban. By the end of 2011, the Afghan National Army (ANA) increased to 171,600 personnel and the Afghan National Police (ANP) to 134,000.	
 
 Such a huge force should be able to control the situation if it can operate effectively, applying good training, tactics, and morale. More than that, with ISAF forces withdrawn, the ANA and ANP will not just be providing assistance to others but will be fighting for their very survival. 
The success of this scenario depends, though, on many “ifs,” including a capable government, successful national reconciliation, necessary international aid, international solidarity, and improvement of the economy. All of these conditions are vital, as the failure of any of them could 
lead to failure of the Kabul process.
The first of these conditions, a capable government, is crucial, and Afghanistan’s government is the basis for the success of the Kabul process. Two questions are germane to this point: First, can the current Afghan government prove itself capable? Unfortunately, there is strong doubt about this; the government of Afghanistan failed to prove its capabilities in the past 10 years, so people wonder whether it can make the necessary fundamental changes in next few years. Furthermore, is the current political model suitable for Afghanistan? Afghanistan is a state with a tribal social 
structure, deeply influenced by religious forces, with most of its population illiterate and living in poverty. While the West believes in the universal applicability of democratic institutions, the local states emphasize the importance of local tradition, arguing that any political model applied to 
Afghanistan must take into account all these factors, otherwise it cannot work effectively. 

ernesto a écrit

S'e' svegliato or or l'ernesto
 
Cosa fa lui cosi' lesto?
Ma ti posta un bel testo,
in  sto posto di tosti.
 
Pesta un tasto
e ben lesto s'appresta
il testo nel posto.
Se posta sti testi,
in sto posto di tosti,
una testa ben tosta,
con l'asta ben posta,
verra' alla batosta ?
 
Non pesto t'appresti,
non paventi i contrasti,
ma lesto ti scosti
che' temi io ti guasti.
 
Sei tristo,
sei mesto, modesto,
funesto, indigesto,
malvisto, sprovvisto.
 
Archivia sto testo
rammenta sto gesto,
e incesta nel cesto.
 
-- 
Negli NG non si usa il proprio nome, ma si omette.
Quindi io: Te l' Ometto.