Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: perche' l'accordo Hamas-Fatah e' una buona notizia

http://victorshikhman.blogspot.com/2011/04/fresh-roadkill-palestine-2011-or-bust.html
If you really, absolutely, positively did not wish to see a State of
Palestine created this year, for whatever reason, then this has been a
very good week. Just when you thought Israel was on its last
diplomatic legs, facing a united international community and an
American President reluctant to stand in the way of Palestinian
statehood, the Palestinians not only make it rain, they helpfully
shoot themselves in both feet and nose dive off a cliff, for effect.
Before we allow the excitement rush to our heads, however, let's all
calm down and think this through.
By signing a political reconciliation between the secular Fatah and
the Islamist terrorist group Hamas, Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas has thrown his centrist supporters in Europe and the United
States under a bus, and then lobbed a few hand grenades to finish the
job. Instead of building international support for a Palestinian
statehood resolution at the UN in September, Palestinian diplomats and
Western advocates are now going to be spending the bulk of the summer
trying to ensure that Western aid, totaling some $500 Million from the
US and $1 Billion from Europe, annually, give or take, will continue
to flow, keeping afloat the Palestinian government and economy. Then
there's the matter of payments which Israel collects for the
Palestinian Authority, which amount to several hundred million more,
and which the Israeli government will absolutely not release to a
Palestinian government in which Hamas takes part.
Were any of this aid to cease, even temporarily, it would result in a
swift fiscal crisis in Ramallah, cascading through the growing middle
class of civil servants into the rest of the economy, and impacting
the one Palestinian political party which owes much of its popularity
and credibility to drawing in Western largess - Fatah - and just
before national elections!
In fact, this is likely the argument that Abbas will use to avert a
cut-off of aid, claiming that doing so will all but ensure Hamas'
domination in next year's anticipated Palestinian elections. However,
his arguments will ring all the more hollow, because the one
individual actually trusted by Western officials, the man who best
represents Western hopes for a peaceful, prosperous and secular
Palestinian future, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, is slated to be
booted from office under the terms of Palestinian reconciliation, at
Hamas insistence!
So, not only is a Palestinian government that includes an unrepentant
Hamas incompatible with Western political and financial support, but
the one capable Palestinian technocrat trusted by the West who could
have allayed Western concerns regarding not funneling American and
European tax dollars towards Hamas' terrorist infrastructure is being
eliminated from the equation. As Jeffrey Goldberg put it...
    It is not Hamas that is changing. It is the Palestinian Authority,
which is sidelining Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, the man most
responsible for bringing the Authority the international credibility
it needs to declare independence.
It's very difficult to put a limit on the damage done to the
Palestinian national cause in Western eyes by Fayaad's dismissal, and
at the hands of Hamas, to boot! This man is a Western darling, the
Palestinian Messiah, on whom praise is heaped without end. If Fayaad
for all his prestige can get the axe, then any Western-backed or
Western-leaning Palestinian can now be removed from office by Islamist
pressure. How can the American and Europeans build trust in
Palestinian partners when the fates of these individuals are at the
mercy of an Iranian and Syrian sponsored Islamist terror group?
But wait, there's more! Jennifer Rubin, quoting Jonathan Schanzer at
the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, writes that...
    Press reports suggest that Hamas is melding its operation into the
PLO, the entity that does business and has offices in the United
States. (In fact the Obama administration recently forked over more
funds to upgrade these in anticipation of a peace agreement.) If this
is correct, the offices would have to be closed and its
representatives ejected from the country.
Whether or not this actually happens is immaterial. The fact that the
option - some would call it a legal obligation - to eject Palestinian
representatives from the US is suddenly on the table is a dramatic
setback for half a decade of smart Palestinian diplomacy in
Washington, setting the clock back to the 1980s, when official PLO
representatives were formally forbidden from stepping foot on US soil.
Even Europe, which may buckle and continue financial aid to the PA by
one mechanism or another, instead of confidently building consensus
for Palestinian statehood, will now face policy chaos and push-back on
political support for a UN statehood resolution. A Palestinian
Islamist party, Hamas, soon to be represented in the official
Palestinian governing structure, rejects the right of Israel to exists
and maintains an active state of war with the Jewish state. For
European, which is interested in bolstering secular and anti-Islamist
forces in the region, which is Europe's primary rationale for getting
involved in building a secular Palestinian state to begin with, this
is just about the worst outcome possible.
The only way out of this mess, for pro-Palestinian Western advocates,
is either Hamas undergoes a fundamental transformation, which it has
failed to do during five years of international pressure, war,
isolation and sanctions, or Fatah defeats it overwhelmingly in
Palestinian national elections next year - both highly improbable
outcomes. Until either of these outcomes magically materializes, and
whatever Palestinian supporters may claim in the meantime, we're all
going to be having Palestine Roadkill for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
Bon Appetit.

 shoot themselves in both feet and nose dive off a cliff, for effect.
questo signore è molto poco sereno.