Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Brzezinski on Afghanistan

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3715692,00.html
Afghanistan | 16.10.2008
Zbigniew Brzezinski : West Must Avoid Russia's Mistakes in Afghanistan
DW-WORLD.DE
: While almost all political parties in Germany want the troops 
to remain in Afghanistan, a majority of the population would prefer a 
withdrawal. What should the West do -- withdraw, stay the course or increase 
the number of troops?
ZB: I don't think any of these options can be the answer. Withdrawal means 
that Afghanistan will plunge immediately into a major crisis with 
unpredictable consequences. Simply putting more troops is not the solution 
to the problem. Staying the course is obviously unsatisfactory because right 
now there is mounting evidence that the situation is deteriorating.
 DW-WORLD.DE:As Jimmy Carter's Security Advisor in 1979, you orchestrated 
the arming of the mujahedeen against Afghanistan's left-wing government, 
eventually drawing the Soviet Army into what you later referred to as the 
"Afghan trap." Has the West now fallen into that trap?
 ZB: The West should not repeat the mistakes that the Soviets made. The 
Soviets invaded Afghanistan on the illusion that a bunch of Marxist Afghan 
intellectuals could help them create a communist satellite using a foreign 
army to impose its will. When the US reacted to the outrageous terrorist 
attacks of September 11, which originated from Afghanistan, it required only 
300 American soldiers to overthrow the Taliban. The reason for that was that 
the Afghans were genuinely grateful for the American support and the support 
of other countries.
We are now running the risk of unintentionally duplicating what the Soviets 
were doing: Instead of capitalizing on that goodwill and leaving fairly soon 
thereafter while giving a lot of economic assistance to the Afghans, we are 
trying to create a modern state -- and a democratic version thereof --  
through a large foreign military presence. I do not think that is a wise 
strategy.
 
DW-WORLD.DE
: What you are suggesting seems to be exactly what the Soviet 
Union did: Before it withdrew its troops, it tried to transfer the burden of 
fighting to the Afghan forces -- and failed. Why should NATO succeed, given 
that it has much less Afghan soldiers to rely on than the Soviets had?
ZB:The Soviets did that after devastating the Afghan society and creating 
massive ill will. One should not underestimate the enormous damage and 
incredible suffering that the Soviets imposed in the Afghan society by a 
ruthless military campaign, which drove millions of Afghans out of the 
country and killed hundreds of thousands of them. We have not done that yet. 
But I think the risk is that the longer we rely on a military solution, the 
more likely it is that the resistance to us will become stronger and 
stronger. I don't think that it is in any way comparable to the resistance 
against the Soviet occupation yet.
 
DW-WORLD.DE
: How can the West avoid getting there?
 ZB:We cannot try to create a modern, centralized, democratic state in 
Afghanistan from the top down using essentially foreign troops to impose 
such a solution. This collides with the sense of ethnic identity and 
religious sensitivity in a country that is very resistant to foreign 
intrusions. We need an altogether different approach. Some additional troops 
in the short run may be necessary, but the main emphasis has to be on 
decentralized political accommodation with the different elements which are 
collectively described as the Taliban but in fact representing a much more 
diversified group.
 
DW-WORLD.DE
: In their nearly completed National Intelligence Estimate, US 
intelligence agencies report a "breakdown in central authority" and "rampant 
corruption within the Karzai government." The British ambassador to 
Afghanistan is said to have called for an "acceptable dictator..."
 ZB:How do you create a dictator out of nothing? The problem in Afghanistan 
is that it is not possible to rule it from Kabul effectively, and I do not 
see how we create a dictator in a deus ex machina fashion. A dictator has to 
have either extensive social appeal or ruthless instruments of power -- or 
preferably both. I don't see that in Afghanistan unless it emerges by itself 
at some point.
 
DW-WORLD.DE
: How should the West deal with the drug trade that provides the 
Taliban with funds?
ZB:Simply trying to wipe out the poppies and deprive the farmers of income 
will not undercut the Taliban, it will strengthen them. The Europeans should 
pay the Afghan farmers as much as it takes to abandon drug crops. The 
Europeans should do that because most of these drugs go to Europe. The drug 
problem in Afghanistan is simultaneously a source of income for the Taliban 
and a serious threat to Europe. In this respect, the European responsibility 
for dealing with it is self-evident.
 
DW-WORLD.DE
: There have been repeated US attacks on Pakistani territory. Do 
you think this could further destabilize the nuclear power Pakistan?
 ZB:US attacks on Pakistani territory should be done only under very 
exceptional circumstances: When there is truly reliable intelligence that 
very senior operatives of al Qaeda are potential targets and there is no 
indication that the Pakistani authorities are going to do anything about it. 
In those circumstances, such a reaction is justifiable since al Qaeda 
attacked the United States. But I think sporadic attacks against some 
Taliban activities emanating from Pakistan are likely to have the effect of 
simply widening the hostilities, and, in effect, transforming the problems 
we face in Afghanistan into a problem that spans both Afghanistan and 
Pakistan thereby vastly complicating the challenge that we face -- while at 
the same time probably further destabilizing Pakistan.
 
DW-WORLD.DE
: You support Barack Obama. Much like John McCain, he has called 
for a significant increase in US troops in Afghanistan...
 ZB:The call for some additional troops may be justified here or there. But 
additional troops are not the solution in the long run. I think Obama has a 
much better understanding of the problems of the 21st century than McCain 
and the problems we face in Afghanistan are not the only problems the 21st 
century is putting before us. The American definition of its role in this 
world has to creatively adapt to the new global complexities. I don't see 
much evidence that McCain understands that need. Obama is much more 
qualified

 Zbigniew Brzezinski : West Must Avoid Russia's Mistakes in Afghanistan
e se lo dice lui che ha creato l'honeytrap per l'orso russo, c'è da
fidarsi...


The European should pay for American Afghanistan?
Mago
Saluti
--------------------------------
Inviato via 
http://arianna.libero.it/usenet/

 wrote in message 
news:202Z111Z7Z94Y1...@usenet.libero.it...

#_Purtroppo e`una delle vie di uscita dallo stallo che si e`creato la', ma 
credo che le armi arriverebbero comunque.
G.
G. 

 wrote in message 
news:5c1c374b-6776-471b...@v15g2000hsa.googlegroups.com...


#_E` una trappola per tutti quel paese; per la sua natura, troppo vasto da 
controllare e con una popolazione fierissima.
G.