Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Ladies and gentlemen, ci siamo...

Un magistrale intervento di Michael C. Ruppert sulla catastrofe perolifera 
in arrivo. Rupper descrive paese per paese e area petrolifera per area 
petrolifera lo stato delle riserve, spiega le improvvise, apparentemente 
grottesche spiegazioni per l'uscita di controllo delprezzo delgreggio, le 
dinamiche suicide del 'mercato' che non può ammetterle pena l'immediato 
collasso, il comportamento delle grnadi compagnie petrolifere che si 
defilano dal business, la fine degli investimenti in raffinerie e 
trivellazioni causa la loro inutilità, la farsa dell'alternativa idrogeno, e 
fissa il collasso tra tre anni, al 2008, salvo incidenti o conflitti che lo 
innescherebbero ancora prima.
La più grande epopea del cretinismo umano è sotto i nostri occhi, ladies and 
gentlemen...
M.
Michael C. Ruppert: Peak Oil and the Big Picture
By: Michael C. Ruppert
Published: Nov 30, 2004
Speech by Michael Ruppert at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco on 
August 31, 2004.
Oil and natural gas are indispensable to our way of life. The world consumes 
ten calories of hydro-carbon energy for every calorie of food that is eaten. 
All commercial fertilizers are made from natural gas. All pesticides are 
made from petroleum. All irrigation, plowing, harvesting and transport is 
accomplished by either oil-powered machinery or oil- or 
natural-gas-generated electricity.
There are between 600 and 700 million internal-combustion-powered vehicles 
on the planet and the demand for them is exploding exponentially, especially 
in China where GM's sales rose 300% in one year alone. According to the 
National Geographic this last June, there are seven gallons of oil in every 
tire. Want to suddenly build 600 million new vehicles that run on something 
else, hydrogen perhaps? How much oil will be required to do that? To mine 
and melt the ore? To transport it to factories that don't exist, using 
electricity that isn't there? To make the paints, solvents and all of the 
plastic needed? All plastic is made from oil.
Hydrogen is a cruel joke that creates false hope. A recent study from EV 
Magazine reported that the average life expectancy of a very expensive fuel 
cell engine was just 200 hours. Commercial hydrogen is now made from natural 
gas. We're nearly out of that too.
China's economic growth has seen that country replace Japan as the world's 
second largest importer of oil, and China is now coming into direct economic 
and political competition with the US for what oil remains.
I have attended two international conferences on the subject of peak oil and 
its implications for civilization, one in Paris in 2003 and one in Berlin 
this year. For almost the entire year between the Paris and Berlin 
conferences, the icons of the mainstream press ' the ones known and employed 
to mold public and business perception ' have been acknowledging peak oil's 
reality [see resources], sometimes reluctantly, sometimes less than 
directly, but also sometimes very boldly. CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, 
The Economist; dozens of media giants had begun to respond, like a giant 
ship turning slowly in the water. The subject of peak oil is one which 
requires a little study to get your brain around. It does not, however, 
require much science except for basic arithmetic. Discoveries of large oil 
deposits have been in steep decline since 1962. Demand, on the other hand, 
has been soaring.
To quote my energy editor Dale Allen Pfeiffer, a geologist: it appears that 
the year 2007 will be important. A new study published in Petroleum Review 
suggests that production might not be able to keep up with demand by 2007. 
The study is a survey of mega projects (those with reserves of over 500 
million barrels and the potential to produce over 100,000 barrels per day of 
oil). Mega projects are important not only because they provide the bulk of 
world oil production, but also because they have a better net energy profile 
than smaller projects, and they provide a more substantial profit than 
smaller projects.
Bear in mind that the planet consumes a billion barrels of oil (or two mega 
fields) every 11-1/2days.
The discovery rate for mega projects has dwindled to almost nothing. This 
can be seen in the data for the last few years. In 2000, there were 16 
discoveries; in 2001 there were 8, and in 2002, only 3. From discovery to 
first production generally takes about 6 years. If a new project can make 
use of existing infrastructure, then the start-up time might be cut to 4 
years.
In 2003, seven new mega projects started producing. 2004 expects to see 
another 11. 2005 will be the peak year for bringing new projects on stream, 
with 18 new projects expected. In 2006, the pace drops back to 1l. But in 
2007 there are only 3 new projects scheduled to begin production, followed 
by 3 more in 2008. There are no new projects on track for 2009 or 2010. And 
any new mega project sanctioned now could not possibly come on stream any 
sooner than 2008.
The study points out that currently about a third of the world's oil comes 
from declining fields, with a likely overall decline rate of about 4%. As a 
result, global production capacity is contracting by over 1 million barrels 
per day every year. New production is the only thing offsetting this 
decline.
Of course, recent events have clearly demonstrated the fragility of a global 
production system that is operating at full tilt. Sabotage an Iraqi 
pipeline, and in one day the price goes up. Announce that Vladimir Putin is 
easing up on Russian oil giant Yukos, and the price drops. Announce that 
Putin is moving to sell off its assets and confiscate its cash, the price 
soars. Worry that Hugo Chavez of Venezuela might be ousted in a violent 
coup, and the price jumps. Watch Chavez ' who is despised by the Bush 
administration ' win his seventh election in as many years, and the price 
drops.
In spite of repeated assurances from the Saudi government that they can and 
are increasing production, the evidence is growing that they cannot. My 
organization, From the Wilderness, was the first to report, a year before 
the New York Times did, that Saudi Arabia may have actually peaked. New 
studies are reporting that Saudi wells in the mother of all oil fields, 
Ghawar, are showing 55% water cut. That means that 55% of what is pumped out 
every day is the same seawater that was pumped in to push the oil up. 
Experience has shown that when the water cut gets to between 70 and 80%, the 
field collapses.
The rush to produce more oil is hastening the destruction of fields that 
could last longer otherwise.
Ghawar, the super giant of all fields was discovered more than 60 years ago. 
It had estimated reserves of almost 100 billion barrels. Professor Michael 
Klare has told us that, in order to keep pace with accelerating oil demand, 
the world will have to discover three new Ghawars in the next 10 to 15 
years. There was only one Ghawar. There hasn't been another since.
So when we look at the paltry and rapidly diminishing rate of discovery for 
the so-called mega fields, the prospects become a bit more chilling. In the 
year 2003, for the first time since the 1920s, according to a leading 
petroleum consulting firm, not a single so-called mega field ' 500 million 
barrels or more ' was discovered.
By 2007, production capacity will have declined by 3-4m b/d. Yet this 
decline will be offset by 8m b/d of new capacity drawn from the many new 
projects expected to come on stream over the next few years. This leaves a 
surplus of 4m b/d in spare capacity. Yet global demand is growing by over 1m 
b/d each year. So 3 years of demand growth will reduce our spare capacity to 
1m b/d by the start of 2007. As very little new capacity is set to come on 
stream in 2007, that remaining 1m b/d spare capacity will likely disappear 
before 2008.
The oil supply appears sustainable, barring major wars or destruction of 
infrastructure, until 2007. With so much new production coming on stream, 
there may even be periods of price weakness. However, it is likely that we 
will begin suffering oil shortages after 2007, especially if anything 
happens to disrupt a portion of the production. If new projects are not 
found and online by 2008, then by the end of that year we are certain to see 
severe shortages without any cause other than rising demand.
But there is another factor to this oil calculus. We hear complaints that a 
major part of the problem with current oil prices has to do with a lack of 
refineries. Why are no more refineries being built? The answer is simple and 
an irrefutable confirmation of peak oil. The refineries are not being built 
and massive expensive exploration projects are not being undertaken because 
the oil companies understand that there is very little oil left to find.
Finding 10 new North Sea fields somewhere By 2015, global oil demand is 
expected to increase by over two-thirds, that is, 60m b/d beyond current 
global consumption of between 75 and 80m b/d. To meet that demand we will 
have to find the equivalent of 10 new North Sea oil fields within a decade. 
In the meantime, Britain's North Sea, just like Alaska's North Slope did a 
decade ago, is running dry. Rigs are shutting down and employees being laid 
off. Yet we are hard pressed now to discover even another mega-sized field. 
To quote former British environmental minister Michael Meacher, we are 
facing "the sharpest and perhaps the most violent dislocation (of society) 
in recent history."
There are many out there who refuse to believe that oil and natural gas are 
running out. There are those who insist that alternative energies can be 
snapped into place. But aside from looking at the events since 9/11 and 
seeing that they match a world of diminishing energy, let's take a look at 
some recent developments around the world and see what they tell us.
Britain's largest electricity provider has announced that prices will soar 
as much as 40% next year. Wholesale energy prices have doubled in the last 
year as Bloomberg has announced that the decline in North Sea production is 
creating a trade gap which is now threatening to cause widespread 
unemployment.
In March, Reuters reported that Argentina, facing its worst energy crisis in 
15 years, is becoming unstable to the point of threatening the security of 
the entire region. It has cut its natural gas exports to Chile by 15%, which 
is threatening Chilean power generation. Argentina is now moving into the 
world oil market in search of oil for power generation and transportation as 
its own domestic supplies have dwindled.
The BBC reported recently that high oil prices are threatening many Asian 
economies.
Just two weeks ago, the Australian government ordered an emergency fuel 
review in anticipation of future crises. In June it conducted a test to see 
how the government and country would respond to a "disruption" in oil 
supplies.
On August 25, it was reported that Brazil was opening negotiations with 
Ecuador to replace diminishing oil supplies.
China, in the midst of rapidly diminishing harvests, is fearing a major food 
crisis. This, even as Hong Kong, Hangzhou, and Shanghai are facing mandatory 
blackouts which are disrupting manufacturing, trade and retail activity. 
Chinese oil imports have increased by 15% in just the first quarter of 2004 
alone. In anticipation of pending military conflict in the region, China has 
decided to build a pipeline through Burma to the Indian Ocean so that 
tankers supplying China's growing thirst will not have to travel through a 
region that is becoming increasingly dangerous.
Germany has moved to institute home energy passports and undertaken serious 
and well-planned efforts to reduce energy consumption. Chancellor Schroeder, 
in the wake of recent revelations that Shell revised its reserve estimates 
four times in one year, called upon the G8 nations to mandate total and 
verifiable transparency in all oil reserve figures.
India, whose oil imports jumped 23% in one month, has moved to create a 
strategic petroleum reserve.
Indonesia, a member of OPEC, has announced that its oil production will drop 
significantly by 2008.
Japan, ignoring stiff opposition from Washington, has signed a major oil 
contract with Iran, at the same time that it is feuding with China, Vietnam 
and the Philippines over relatively small oil and gas deposits in the 
Spratly Islands of the South China Sea. Three bills have been introduced in 
the Japanese parliament that would suspend its nonviolent constitution and 
permit a full-scale rearmament.
Russia, having recently admitted that its oil reserves are finite and that 
production might start to decline sharply within the next five years, has 
announced it will build a pipeline from its Siberian fields to the Pacific 
ports of Vladivostok and Sakhalin, thus agreeing to sell its oil to Japan, 
Korea and the Philippines. Russia's other choice was to have the pipeline 
terminate in central China.
"This Week in Petroleum," an industry journal, has reported that non-OECD 
countries have begun to hoard petroleum and are buying all they can even at 
what some analysts call "inflated" prices.
In Thailand, mandatory curfews have been imposed two nights a week, 
requiring all businesses to shut down in order to conserve energy.
On August 24, Britain's Oil Depletion Analysis Center confirmed, citing data 
from "Petroleum Review," that daily oil depletion is now exceeding 1m b/d. 
In other words, every day, the world is producing 1.14 million barrels per 
day less than it did the day before. By analyzing data from the 18 largest 
oil producing nations, "Petroleum Review" calculated that production from 
these countries peaked in 1997 at 24.7 m b/d and that by 2003 it had fallen 
to 22.1 m b/d.
On August 21, the Houston Chronicle posed a great question. If oil prices 
are soaring and there's insatiable demand, why isn't there a boom in hiring 
and corporate expansion? The Chronicle, paying due heed to the financial 
markets, offered the dubious explanation that the oil companies just didn't 
want to overdo things and look greedy. In fact, all over the world, oil 
companies are downsizing, selling off assets, laying off employees and 
merging. Just last week it was announced that French giant Total was 
considering a tender offer to purchase Royal Dutch Shell.
And here in the United States, rising oil prices have forced major airlines 
like United to consider raiding corporate pension funds in order to offset 
rising oil costs as an alternative to bankruptcy.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is just the beginning. And neither presidential 
candidate has even remotely addressed the real issues or dared to tell the 
American people the worst. The one overriding concern I have seen expressed 
everywhere is "Oh, no. We can't do that. It will crash the markets."
Is that the sum total of human expression and achievement? The markets?
To close this presentation tonight, I would like to offer you a quote from 
John Kenneth Galbraith, from a 2002 article, "The Unbearable Costs of 
Empire":
"It is a straightforward fact that if global oil production starts to 
decline but U.S. consumption does not, everyone else will be required to cut 
purchases of oil. But how can oil prices be held stable for Americans yet be 
made to rise for everyone else? Only by a policy of continuing depreciation 
in everyone else's currency. Such a policy of dollar hegemony amid worldwide 
financial instability, of crushing debt burdens and deflation throughout the 
developing world, is perverse. It will make our trading partners' exports 
cheap, render their imports dear and keep their real wages low. It will 
price American goods out of world markets and lead to unsustainable 
dependence on foreign capital. This is the policy that Bush and Cheney are 
actually imposing on the rest of the world. But they cannot make it last. It 
will make lives miserable elsewhere, generating ever more resistance, 
terrorism and military engagement. Meanwhile, we will not experience even 
gradual exposure to the changing energy balance; we will therefore never 
make the investments required to adjust, even eventually, to a world of 
scarce and expensive oil. In the end, therefore, that world will arrive much 
more abruptly than it otherwise would, shaking the fragile edifice of our 
oil economy to its foundations. And we will someday face a double explosion: 
of anger against our arrogance and of actual shortage and collapsing living 
standards, when the confidence of investors in the dollar finally gives way.
Compared with this future, a new commitment to collective security, to a new 
world financial structure, to a rational energy and transportation policy, 
and to spending to meet our actual domestic needs would be a bargain. At the 
end of the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin was asked what type 
of government the framers had given our new country. He famously replied, "A 
republic, if you can keep it."
In 49 BC, Julius Caesar, fresh from a battlefield victory in central Italy 
ordered his legions to cross a small creek called the Rubicon. Under the 
laws of the Roman Republic, the army was not allowed to enter the capital 
city.
As Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon, the Roman Republic died and the Roman 
Empire was born.
Our task, if we and much of human civilization are to survive, is not to 
keep our republic, but to take it back.
Thank you.
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«Gli occidentali sono liberi di dire quello che pensano
perché non pensano a quello che non sono liberi di dire».
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#_E` parecchio che lo vado gridando ai quattro venti...non so neanche se la 
bicicletta sara`un'alternativa valida...la crisi energetica non coinvolgera` 
solo il mezzo di trasporto. E`ora che cominciate anche voi a rispolverare la 
zappa del nonno...e sarebbe ora che daste via il cane e lo sostituiste, se 
non con una Daisy, con una produttrice capretta...
lasciate la metropoli!
Il cav.Santini finalmente dovra`capire a sue spese, a cosa servono i suoi 
stivali e da che parte va la sella.
Pensate ancora che io sia affetto da catastrofismo acuto?
Giano
P.S._Noi semo divorziati gia`du' vorte ora , se volessimo sposasse lo 
potremmo fa' a ripetizione...tratatatatà!...(sei mesi + divorzio )! E`mejio 
'na mandata de femmine , senza preferenza etnica...(mica semo razzisti!) , 
ma al gender anche non ce facemo caso... in quel caso , nunn'e`che se debba 
consumallo pefforza 'r matrimonio !!!...
cussi`potremmo davve il biglietto d'ingresso ad Edenland...basta che 
sappiate munge la Daisy a dovere!
hahahahahahah
Giano&Giannozzo 

 gas. We're nearly out of that too.
Mettiamola così: non sa niente di idrogeno, celle a combustibile, polimeri
organici, e alcune altre cose.
Per esempio, la vita media di una moderna cella a combustibile è di circa
20 anni, non 200 ore. Inoltre esistono n modi di produrre idrogeno:
estrazione da combustibili fossili, dal gas naturale, dal bio-gas, per
idrolisi, per citarne alcuni. Per elettrolisi, l'energia può arrivare da
qualunque fonte: centrali idroelettriche, termoelettriche, pannelli
solari, centrali nucleari, ruote per criceti. Inoltre non spiega come mai
tutte le case automobilistiche, FIAT compresa, stanno preparando prototipi
di auto ad idrogeno. La Mercedes ha addirittura prodotto 60 Classe A ad
idrogeno consegnate a 60 clienti per un collaudo estensivo. Ancora, tutte
le grandi città europee (Barcellona, Madrid, etc) hanno autobus DI LINEA
(non prototipi) ad idrogeno. C'è poi anche quella bazzecola di 1.7
miliardi di dollari investiti dal governo USA nella ricerca sull'idrogeno.
Quanto al "Want to suddenly build 600 million new vehicles that run on
something else", è una pura e semplice cazzata. Non c'è alcun bisogno di
costruirle "improvvisamente", bensì in un processo di sostituzione che
potrebbe durare una cinquantina d'anni.
Ancora, ignora completamente l'esistenza di polimeri organici non derivati
dal petrolio, idem per le vernici.
Per il resto, non sono un esperto in pozzi petroliferi, ma mettere la
crisi petrolifera nel 2008 mi pare un pò una boiata. Per il semplice fatto
che ci sono pozzi non ancora sfuttati fino in fondo per limiti tecnologici
attuali, ed altri che ancora non sono stati aperti per gli stessi motivi.
(vedi i pozzi bituminosi del canada, che fino a poco tempo fa erano
economicamente inutilizzabili a causa degli alti costi di estrazione, ma
che con le moderne tecnologie possono essere sfruttati "normalmente".
Inoltre ci sono potenzialmente pozzi non ancora scoperti.
Raffaele
-- 
Raffaele Castagno
Petizione ADSL:
http://www.petitiononline.com/digdivit/petition.html
Strategic Game Engine:
http://strategic.sourceforge.net/
http://strategic-game.blogspot.com/
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