Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: India e Pakistan, rischio di guerra.

India e Pakistan, rischio di guerra.
Mondo in allarme
Impennata di violenza in Kashmir
Ivan Bonfanti
C'è qualcosa di più grave della «endemica instabilità» che da decenni scuote
il Kashmir nell'ultima impennata di violenza che da giorni si è abbattuta
sulla regione contesa tra India e Pakistan. Nei confini già blindati che
separano i due storici nemici del Subcontinente le artiglierie sono in
azione da una settimana, dalle cittadine kashmire si sovrappongono notizie
di nuove violenze, di morti ammazzati e assassinii politici mentre da
Islamabad e New Dehli rimbalzano minacce di ritorsioni e proclami
battaglieri. Di «rischi concreti di una guerra inquietante tra due potenze
nucleari» ha parlato ieri anche il ministro degli Esteri inglese Jack Straw,
annunciando che la prossima settimana sarà nella regione per incontrare le
parti e cercare di evitare il precipizio
http://www.liberazione.it/giornale/020522/LB12D69F.asp
Pomero da
Liberazione


Una guerra fra due stati atomici, penso sia l'ultima cosa che si possa
desiderare.
Ad'I

 che si possa desiderare.
Lo vedi che ogni tanto anche tu scrivi cose giuste?
Andrea
salo...@mediacomm.it

India and Pakistan back off from war—temporarily
By Vilani Peiris and Sarath Kumara
24 May 2002
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vaypayee yesterday took a small step
back from the brink of war with Pakistan, declaring to the media that he
saw clear skies replacing war clouds—at least for the moment. He warned,
however, that, “sometimes lightning can strike even when the sky is
clear. I hope there will be no lightning.”
Vajpayee’s tone was in marked contrast to his comments the previous day
when addressing an Indian army unit stationed near the Indo-Pakistan
border. Then, he told the troops: “India is forced to fight a war thrust
on it and we will emerge victorious. Let there be no doubt about it...
Be ready for sacrifice. Your goal should be victory. It’s time to fight
a decisive battle.”
The shift in emphasis followed a statement by Pakistani military
strongman General Pervez Musharraf after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.
While repeating that Pakistan was ready for war, Musharraf added: “The
meeting emphasised the government will not allow Pakistan’s territory or
any territory whose defence is the responsibility of Pakistan to be used
for any terrorist activity anywhere in the world.”
The comments contain a significant concession to India’s demand that
Pakistan crack down on “cross-border terrorism”—that is, armed Islamic
fundamentalist groups opposed to India’s control of Jammu and Kashmir.
In January, following an armed attack on the Indian parliament building
on December 13, Musharraf took a number of measures to appease New
Delhi, including the banning of several organisations and the round-up
of hundreds of their members. But he stopped short of taking similar
steps in the parts of Kashmir ruled by Pakistan.
According to the Indian government, a number of the Islamic groups
simply re-established themselves in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. By
referring to “any territory whose defence is the responsibility of
Pakistan,” Musharraf implied that Pakistan’s security forces would now
move to shut down the new offices and camps in Kashmir and prevent armed
fighters from crossing the border into Indian-controlled Jammu and
Kashmir.
Top Indian cabinet ministers and military officials met yesterday in
Kashmir to consider Musharraf’s statement. According to the Hindustan
Times, the Unified Headquarters chaired by Vajpayee in Srinagar decided
to give Pakistan two months to halt “cross-border terrorism” ahead of
state elections due in Jammu and Kashmir. While formally rejecting
Musharraf’s comments, the Cabinet Committee on Security, which also met
yesterday, endorsed the earlier decision to give Pakistan more time to
comply.
The decision amounts to little more than a temporary respite, which
could at any time be reversed. The onus is placed on Pakistan to crack
down on the activities of various Islamic militia, with which the
Pakistani military and intelligence bodies have close relations, but do
not control. Any fresh attack inside India or on Indian forces, such as
the one at Kaluchak last week in which 34 people were killed, could
become the basis for New Delhi to renew its threats of war.
Behind the scenes, the major powers, particularly the US, have exerted
considerable pressure on both countries to back off from a military
confrontation—on Islamabad to make concessions and on New Delhi to give
Pakistan more time. US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia
Christina Rocca visited the subcontinent last week and Deputy Secretary
of State Richard Armitage is due to arrive early next month. European
Union External Affairs Commissioner Chris Pattern was due to arrive in
New Delhi yesterday, to be followed by British Foreign Secretary Jack
Straw next week.
In seeking to prevent the outbreak of war between India and Pakistan,
Washington is concerned that any conflict would not only undermine its
military operations in Afghanistan but also destabilise the region and
threaten broader US economic and strategic interests. At the same time,
the Bush administration’s “war against terrorism,” and its own closer
relations with New Delhi, have only encouraged the Vajpayee government
to take a more belligerent stand against Pakistan.
The Pakistani regime has attempted to enlist international support for
negotiations or the establishment of monitors along the Line of Control
that divides Kashmir into Indian and Pakistani zones. Pakistan’s Foreign
Minister Shaukat Aziz stated: “We are willing to talk bilaterally,
through third party mediation, or by any other acceptable mechanism to
avert the war.” But India, which has traditionally insisted that Kashmir
is an internal issue, has rejected any international involvement and
indicated that it is not prepared to talk with Musharraf.
Military flashpoint
Tensions between the two nuclear-armed powers remain extremely high.
Neither side has pulled back from frantic military preparations over the
last week. More than one million soldiers armed with tanks, heavy
artillery, warplanes and missiles have faced each other across the
border in a state of high alert since last December. Heavy exchanges of
mortar and artillery fire have forced at least 25,000 villagers to flee
the border areas and resulted in a number of deaths.
Last weekend, India integrated its paramilitary border guards and coast
guard with the Indian military for the first time since its war with
Pakistan in 1971. On Wednesday, five warships from India’s eastern fleet
were moved to the western coast to strength its naval presence near
Pakistan’s waters. Warplanes, tanks and missile batteries are already in
place in what has been India’s largest-ever military mobilisation.
Millions of landmines have been planted along the border.
As well as military threats, some Indian officials have warned that
India could tear up the Indus Water Treaty, signed with Pakistan in
1960. The agreement regulates the use of water in three rivers,
including the Indus, which flows through Pakistan but has its headwaters
in India. The general secretary of the Pakistan Labor Party, Farooq
Tariq, commented: “If this treaty were scrapped, it would not only
starve the Punjab and Sind provinces of Pakistan, but Pakistan as a
whole and Afghanistan.”
Pakistan has responded in kind. The military has moved Haft missiles,
with an estimated range of 75 to 100 km, as well as the longer range
Haft-2 to the border with India. Islamabad has indicated that it will
pull its troops out of UN-sponsored operations in Sierra Leone. The army
has begun to transfer troops from the western border with Afghanistan to
the Indian border in the east. Islamabad has been put on a war footing,
all army reserves and retired officers have been recalled to active duty
and government hospital beds emptied in preparation for casualties.
Within India, there have been repeated calls for strikes across the Line
of Control against anti-Indian militia groups. The Indian military
establishment has been speculating on the possibility of a “limited
war,” involving raids by groups of elite soldiers on militia training
camps. But, as several defence analysts have pointed out, any military
confrontation has its own dynamic and its own momentum. Even a limited
attack by the Indian army in a confined area could spread rapidly along
the border, and, if conventional weapons proved inadequate, lead to the
unleashing of nuclear-tipped missiles with tragic consequences for
millions of people.
The long-running conflict over Kashmir stems from the reactionary
character of the partition of the Indian continent into a Muslim
Pakistan and a Hindu-dominated India in 1947. Within that communal
framework, strategically-placed Kashmir, with a Muslim-majority and
ruled by a Hindu maharaja, immediately became a focus of sharp rivalry
and war—in 1948 and 1965. The two countries again moved to the brink of
war in 1999, when Pakistani-backed forces seized key mountaintops in the
Kargil region of Jammu and Kashmir.
The volatility of the present standoff is fueled by the deep political
crisis in both countries. Vajpayee has seized on the opportunity to
divert public attention from communal rioting in the state of Gujarat
where hundreds of Muslims were killed. Criticisms of the actions of his
Hindu chauvinist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) threatened to lead to a
break-up of the ruling coalition.
Within Pakistan, Musharraf, who took power in a military coup in 1999,
is increasingly coming under fire. Most political parties refused to
attend a meeting called by the Pakistani leader to gather support for
war. Instead the All Party Conference—a coalition of 29 opposition
parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and the Pakistan
Peoples Party (PPP)—demanded Musharraf resign and hand over power to a
neutral caretaker government. The opposition resolution stated:
“[Musharraf] stands discredited and lacks the stature and moral
authority to deal with the current threat to national security and
territorial integrity of Pakistan.”
PPP leader and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto blamed Musharraf for
creating a “war-like situation,” saying: “The latest tensions on the
border and the threat of a potentially nuclear war emphasise the need
for a political change in Pakistan ...” Increasingly isolated, Musharraf
responded on Wednesday: “In fact, I now want to shed power. I wish there
was an elected prime minister to take the crucial decisions that need to
be taken at this juncture.”
Pakistan faces a serious economic crisis. The chairman of the Central
Board of Revenue, Raiz Malik, stated recently that the country had lost
42 billion rupees ($US0.8 billion) in revenue following September 11.
Over the last week, the Karachi stock exchange has slumped by 1,527
points or 14.5 percent. The Bombay stock exchange in India has lost 9
percent since May 14.
In these highly charged conditions, any incident could quickly become
the pretext for an escalation of hostilities.
www.wsws.org
-- 
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - 
http://www.Mailgate.ORG

 ha scritto nel messaggio
news:eBhH8.9771$se2.1...@twister1.libero.it...


 ha scritto nel messaggio
news:eBhH8.9771$se2.1...@twister1.libero.it...

Ogni tanto!? Io credevo sempre :-)
Ad'I

 Ogni tanto!? Io credevo sempre :-)
Ora non allargarti troppo...    ;-þ
Andrea
salo...@mediacomm.it