Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Se lo conosci lo eviti

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/19/romney-lose-home-state-massachusetts
 
 
Romney poised to lose home state by wider margin than any other candidate
Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly opt for Obama in polls as former 
governor is projected to lose state by more than 17 points
 
Adam Gabbatt
guardian.co.uk
, Friday 19 October 2012 17.37 BST
 
Mitt Romney's current standing in the polls in Massachusetts gives him 
the dubious honor of being more unpopular in his home state than any 
presidential candidate in modern history.
 
A look back at 50 years of elections in the US shows that if he wins on 
November 6 Romney would become the first president of modern times to be 
elected despite losing the popular vote in his home state.
 
Romney, who was governor of Massachusetts just six years ago, now trails 
Obama by over 17 points in recent polls there.
 
Voting trends going back to 1960, when John F Kennedy – who like Romney 
had a background in Massachusetts politics – show that the winner of the 
presidential election has always won the state where they served in 
political office.
 
The story is largely the same with the losing presidential candidates. 
Only two in the Guardian's sample of 13 elections have failed to win 
their states – Al Gore in 2000 and George McGovern in 1972.
 
But Romney's projected performance in Massachusetts, if accurate, will 
still stand out from those two candidates. Polls conducted in October 
show Romney behind Obama by 17.4 points in the state, much worse than 
either Gore or McGovern fared in their home states.
 
Gore, who served as a Democratic congressman and later senator for 
Tennessee before serving as Bill Clinton's vice-president, lost the 
popular vote in his state, by 51.15% to 47.28% – 3.87 points. He lost 
the election to George W Bush as well, despite famously winning the 
popular vote.
 
George McGovern, a Democratic senator from South Dakota, lost the 
popular vote in his state to Richard Nixon by 54.15% to 45.52%, or 8.63 
points. He lost the presidential election too, in a massive landslide.
 
The thing the three have in common is that their home states, at the 
time of their elections, trend towards the opposite party, but even so 
Romney would hope to be closer in the state where he has spent his 
entire adult life and where he was governor until 2007.
 
Romney grew up in Michigan before studying at Stanford university in 
California for a year. He then spent two years in France as a Mormon 
missionary before returning to study at Brigham Young University in 
Utah. The future Republican nominee moved to Massachusetts in 1971 to 
attend Harvard, and after graduating in 1975 moved into consultancy in 
Boston, where he spent the majority of his career.
 
Romney spent five years as a bishop within the Mormon church in 
Massachusetts in the 1980s, and ran for senate in the state in 1994. He 
was elected Massachusetts governor in 2002 and served for a single term 
before resigning to run for president in 2008.
 
Looking west to Michigan, where Romney spent his formative years and 
where his father George was a popular three-term governor, it still 
looks negative. The most recent Rasmussen poll in Michigan shows Obama 
with support from 52% of likely voters, while 45% plan to vote for Romney.
 
On the cheerier side, Romney does have a chance of winning New 
Hampshire, where he has a summer home, and will almost certainly triumph 
in his undergraduate home of Utah.
-- 
Namib
--
I have examined maps of the city with the greatest care, yet have never 
again found the Rue d'Auseil (HPL)

 presidential candidate in modern history.
 
mi ricorda un noto sindaco fiorentino...

Il 21/10/12 09:38, Luca Logi ha scritto:

Che ha vinto primarie ed elezioni a Firenze.
E le rivincerebbe, a mani basse.
 
 
-- 
“Until the wolf shall lay with lamb, we’d better be the wolves.”
–Ehud Barak

 E le rivincerebbe, a mani basse.
 
Non è detto: nella classifica di gradimento di datamonitor Renzi tra i 
sindaci di città metropolitane è quello che ha avuto il calo di consensi 
più vistoso..
 
 
 
 
fe...@delenda.net
 
-- 
http://delendanet.blogspot.com
 

 più vistoso..
 
Se non riesce a vincere le primarie, dubito che riesca a vincere un
secondo mandato di sindaco. Se si facessero le primarie per sindaco
questa volta l'ala tradizionalista del PD non si farebbe fregare, e
anche ammesso che passasse le primarie, dovrebbe ricercarsi il voto dei
fiorentini.
 
 
-- 
Luca Logi - Firenze - Italy        e-mail: 
ll...@dada.it
 
http://archivarius2.blogspot.it/
 
http://archivarius2.wordpress.com
 
http://www.angelfire.com/ar/archivarius
 

 fiorentini.
 
IMO, per quel che conosco a Firenze, ve lo schiafferebbe nel lisca come 
l'altra volta.
A giudicare da quanto vi brucia, vien quasi da sperare di godersi di 
nuovo lo spettacolo :-)
 
 
-- 
ï¿½Until the wolf shall lay with lamb, weï¿½d better be the wolves.ï¿½
ï¿½Ehud Barak

 nuovo lo spettacolo :-)
 
Questo ï¿½ in effetti il vero interrogativo: probabilmente Renzi perderï¿½ 
le primarie. Una volta fatto questo bisognerï¿½ vedere cosa farï¿½ davvero, 
indipendentemente da quanto continua a ripetere a pappagallo da mesi.
 
 
 
fe...@delenda.net
 
-- 
http://delendanet.blogspot.com
 

 ragionevolmente prendere il 4%.
 
Un partito renziano non ha alcun senso: se si presenta non allineato a 
una coalizione, non ha alcuna speranza di superare gli sbarramenti, se 
si presenta in coalizione con il centro-sinistra, � indistinguibile dal 
PD e non ha alcuno spazio di manovra.
 
Fra un anno ci sar� il congresso del Partito: se i bersaniani non 
riescono a trovare un'alternativa valida a Bersani stesso, potrebbe 
sempre sperare di raggiungere la segreteria e (provare a) fare quello di 
cui per ora si limita a parlare.
 
In quest'ultimo caso, avrebbe probabilmente il sostegno del presidente 
del consiglio.
 
Bersani, ovviamente.
 
 
-- 
*Sunspot*
Beware of the big green dragon that sits on your doorstep. He eats 
little boys, puppy dog tails, and big, fat snails.
 

 IMO, per quel che conosco a Firenze
 
meno di zero, visto che ti inventi consensi che non ha mai avuto,
avendo perso 12.000 voti rispetto al suo predecessore

 ragionevolmente prendere il 4%.
 
dipende da quanti soldi arrivano dalle Cayman