Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Iran prossimo all'implosione?

http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-conditions-becoming-increasingly-desperate-2012-10#ixzz29IRzLidw
 
 
Latest Conditions In Iran Pointing To Potential For A Major Humanitarian 
Catastrophe
 
Walter Kurtz, Sober Look	
 
Latest developments in Iran: conditions becoming increasingly desperate
 
More worrisome signs are emerging of deteriorating economic conditions 
in Iran. Here are some of the latest news quotes:
1. Crude output is slowing.
NYT: - Daily oil production in Iran, the most important component of its 
economy, fell in September to the weakest level in nearly a 
quarter-century, according to monthly data released on Friday by the 
International Energy Agency. The agency forecast declines in Iran’s 
ability to produce oil for years to come if Western sanctions were not 
lifted.
2. Trade in general has come under severe pressure. This is likely 
having a terrible impact on the population, particularly the poor.
Reuters: - Data from maritime intelligence publisher IHS Fairplay showed 
the overall number of vessels calling at Iranian ports in the year to 
early October was 980. That figure for more than three quarters of this 
year compares with 2,740 ships for the whole of 2011 and 3,407 for 2010.
 
Of that total, the number of visits by container ships - which carry 
consumer goods ranging from foodstuffs and household items to clothing 
and toys - was 86 so far this year, compared with 273 for the whole of 
2011 and 378 in 2010.
 
...
 
Only eight refrigerated cargo vessels carrying fresh produce including 
bananas called at Iranian ports so far this year, down from 16 in 2011 
and 36 in 2010, the IHS Fairplay data showed. Even fishing trawlers 
unloading their catch have slumped to five from 14 last year and 20 in 
2010.
3. We are beginning to see the first signs of social unrest. But given 
the brutality with which the authorities are likely to respond, the 
protests have been largely subdued.
The Telegraph: - Economic hardship has triggered the first street 
protests in Iran for three years as Tehran struggles to cope with UN, US 
and EU measures imposed to punish the country for violating resolutions 
restricting its nuclear programme. Western officials believe that 
sanctions have put the regime under pressure. "There has been a wider 
effect on the economy and that affects people and businesses."
 
In a rare public concession that the regime was struggling with the 
sanctions, Ayatollah Khamenei decried the measures this week. "These 
sanctions are barbaric," he said. "This is a war against a nation. But 
the Iranian nation will defeat them."
4. Foreign firms are exiting Iran to avoid losing business with Western 
nations.
Reuters: - Iran has faced an exodus of international companies providing 
marine-related services including certification of its fleet, which is 
vital for securing insurance and ports access. Earlier this year, 
sanctions pressure also led to the near collapse of an Iranian-led 
shipping venture with an Indian firm.
5. Auto production is declining sharply.
NYT: - On Thursday, the Iranian Students’ News Agency reported a 42 
percent drop in automotive production in the past six months compared 
with the same period a year earlier, without providing an explanation. 
But the rial’s severe drop has made imports of auto parts far more 
expensive. Last February, Peugeot, the French automaker that is a 
partner of Iran Khodro, Iran’s leading domestic automaker, withdrew from 
the country because of the strengthened Western sanctions.
6. The EU is about to impose harsher sanctions that will be focused 
among other things on financial transactions.
WSJ: - European firms will be banned from contracting any ships to 
transport Iranian oil—even if they are from outside the bloc. There will 
be a ban on marine equipment sales and European firms will be prohibited 
from constructing oil tankers for Iran.
 
But the most effective measures may be in the financial sector. Even for 
trade that is still allowed, there will be tight thresholds on 
transactions with Iranian banks that can go ahead without authorization.
 
The level of the threshold will depend on the sector, with humanitarian 
trade in food and medicines having a ceiling of €100,000. But for many 
other items, any transaction over €10,000 with an Iranian bank will need 
pre-approval, diplomats said.
7. There are stories of increased tensions within the Iranian 
government, although so far there isn't much evidence to substantiate 
such claims. A rift within the government could trigger wider, 
potentially violent internal conflicts (as discussed here).
NBC: - [A Western intelligence] official told NBC News there are some 
signs of “tension within the Iranian regime” over the issue.
 
"We’ve picked up some small signs of wavering on the nuclear policy," 
the official, who did not want to be named, said. "But I don’t want to 
exaggerate it."
This situation needs to get resolved soon. One can only hope these 
events do not result in a massive humanitarian crisis, because the 
current situation has all the makings of one.
-- 
Namib
--
I have examined maps of the city with the greatest care, yet have never 
again found the Rue d'Auseil (HPL)

 
http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-conditions-becoming-increasingly-desperate-2012-10#ixzz29IRzLidw
 
 
beh, la fame e` sempre stata brutta.