Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: l'economia mondiale collassa molto più rapidamente che nel '29

As ordinary citizens with no power over the levers of policy, we watch
from the sidelines, and weep. The whole global economy has tipped into
a downward spiral. Trade and output are contracting at rates that
outstrip the leisurely depression of the 1930s. Debt deflation has
simply washed over the drastic measures taken by governments
everywhere.
Judging by the latest Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers, investors
have a touching faith that China is going to rescue us all and re-
ignite the commodity boom. How can this be? Taiwan's exports to China
fell 55pc in January, Japan's fell 45pc. These exports are links in
the supply chain for China's industry. Manufacturing output in the
Shanghai region fell 12pc in January.
My favourite China guru, Michael Pettis from Beijing University, is in
despair – as you can see on his blog (
http://mpettis.com
) . The
property bubble is bursting. Developers have built more offices in
Beijing since 2006 than the entire stock in Manhattan. There is a 14-
year supply glut. We have seen this movie before.
Factory output is collapsing at the fastest pace everywhere. The
figures for the most recent month available are, year-on-year: Taiwan
(-43pc), Ukraine (-34pc), Japan (-30pc), Singapore (-29pc), Hungary
(-23pc), Sweden (-20pc), Korea (-19pc), Turkey (-18pc), Russia
(-16pc), Spain (-15pc), Poland (-15pc), Brazil (-15pc), Italy (-14pc),
Germany (-12pc), France (-11pc), US (-10pc) and Britain (-9pc). Norway
sails blissfully on (+4pc). What do they drink up there?
This terrifying fall has been concentrated in the last five months.
The job slaughter has barely begun. Social mayhem comes with a 12-
month lag. By comparison, industrial output in core-Europe fell 2.8pc
in 1930, 5.1pc in 1931 and 3.9pc in 1932, according to RBS.
Stephen Lewis, from Monument Securities, says we have been lulled into
a false sense of security by the lack of "soup kitchens". The visual
cues from Steinbeck's America are missing. "The temptation for
investors is to see this as just another recession, over by the end of
the year. But this is not a normal cycle. It is a cataclysmic
structural breakdown," he said.
Fiscal stimulus is reaching its global limits. The lowest interest
rates in history are failing to gain traction. The Fed seems
paralyzed. It first talked of buying US Treasuries three months ago,
but cannot seem to bring itself to hit the nuclear button.
As the Fed dithers, a flood of bond issues from the US Treasury is
swamping the debt market. The yield on 10-year Treasuries has climbed
from 2pc to 3.04pc in eight weeks. The real cost of money is rising as
deflation gathers pace.
US house prices have fallen 27pc (Case-Shiller index). The pace of
descent is accelerating. The 2.2pc fall in December was the worst
month ever. January looks just as bad. Delinquenc-ies on prime
mortgages were 1.72pc in September, 1.89pc in October, 2.13pc on
November and 2.42pc in December. This is the trajectory eating away at
the banking system.
Graham Turner, from GFC Economics, fears the Dow could crash to 4,000
by summer unless there is a "quantum reduction" in mortgage rates. The
Fed should swoop in to the market – armed with Ben Bernanke's
"printing press" – and mop up enough Treasuries to force 10-year
yields down to 1pc and mortgage rates to 2.5pc. Monetary shock and
awe.
This remedy is fraught with risk, but all options are ghastly at this
point. That is the legacy we have been left by the Greenspan doctrine.
We are at the moment of extreme danger in Irving Fisher's "Debt
Deflation Theory" (1933) where the ship fails to right itself by
natural buoyancy, and capsizes instead.
From all accounts, the Fed was ready to launch its bond blitz in
January. Something happened. Perhaps the hawks awoke in cold sweats at
night, fretting about Weimar.
Perhaps they feared that China and the world will pull the plug on the
US bond market. If so, it is time for Washington to get a grip.
America remains the hegemonic global power. The Obama team should let
it be known – and perhaps Hillary Clinton did just that on her trip to
Asia – that any country playing games with the US bond market in this
crisis will be treated as an enemy and pay a crushing price.
Pacific allies already know that they cannot take the US security
blanket for granted. As for China – and others pursuing a mercantilist
strategy of export-led growth – they must know that the US can shut
off its market and wreak havoc to their economy.
To Europe, they might make it clearer that unless the European Central
Bank is brought to heel by the Continent's leaders (whatever
Maastricht says) and forced to play its full part in emergency efforts
to save the global economy, the NATO military alliance will wither and
the region will be left to fend for itself against a revanchist
Russia.
Should the main threat come from an exodus of private wealth,
Washington may have to impose temporary capital controls. Never
forget, America is the one country with enough strategic depth to go
it alone, if necessary. The US is not going to let foreigners keep it
trapped in a depression.
I doubt matters will ever come to this. Japan is already in dire
straits. Exports crashed 46pc in January, year-on-year. The Bank of
Japan may soon start buying US Treasuries for its own reasons – just
as it did from 2003 to 2004 – in order to reverse the 30pc rise of the
yen over the last 18 months. If it helps preserve the Sino-US defence
alliance in the face of Chinese naval expansion, so much the better.
In any case, the storm has shifted across the Atlantic to Europe.
Germany faces 5pc contraction this year (Deutsche Bank). The bill has
come from the burst bubble in the ex-Soviet bloc. Europe's banks are
on the hook for $1.6 trillion (£1.1 trillion). For the first time
since the launch of monetary union, Europe's leaders are speaking
openly about the risk of EMU break-up.
A run on the US dollar looks a remote threat as the euro drama
unfolds. The Fed may soon have all the room for manoeuvre it needs.
Small comfort.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4884975/We-need-shock-and-awe-policies-to-halt-depression.html

tempi moderni, velocità superiori...

 tempi moderni, velocità superiori...
Certo non nella Corea del Nord.
Tb

 Certo non nella Corea del Nord.
la Corea del Nord cadrà da un cm da terra, noialtri lo faremo da molto
più in alto. Indovina chi si farà più male?

 tempi moderni, velocità superiori...
ecco, adesso spiegalo con comodo a Pangloss Antola

sarà fiato sprecato come con te?

giovanni2 ha scritto:

Lol. Sei un cultore del rompersi le ossa subito così poi non rischi più 
nulla ?


wrote:
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non ho detto questo, ho detto che chi sta più in alto si fa più male
quando cade.

Der Bildungsphilister ha scritto:

Ummamma.
Una delle affermazioni più imbecilli che abbia mai letto, effettivamente.
Comunque io cercherei di moderare gli effetti della crisi licenziando 
immediatamente un collaboratore avventizio e parassitario della Regione 
Marche. Se è vero che un uccellino che sbatte le ali in Cina... etc etc...
Siamo a posto.
Tb

è tonto e non se ne rende conto...

 quando cade.
Incerti del volare in alto. Tanto, quando cadi sarà al massimo nella 
stessa merda nella quale sguazza felice la Corea del Nord da sessant'anni.

 ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:364697bf-af95-4cad...@v15g2000yqn.googlegroups.com...

molto interessante. Diciamo che in questo articolo si tende a rassicurare il 
pubblico sulle capacità degli Usa a continuare a reggere le redini. Speriamo 
che sia così. Anzi: me lo auguro perchè oggi come oggi potremmo fare 
veramente poco.
Secondo il Telegraph gli Usa potrebbero anche mettere in piedi misure 
straordinarie atte a fare in modo che nessuno possa usare il debito pubblico 
americano come strumento di controllo politico. Diciamo che questo risponde 
a chi, come il sottoscritto, temeva per le sorti dell'america... :-) 
Evidentemente i miei dubbi non erano solo miei... :-) 

 Marche.
me ne sto per andare da solo, sta tranquillo. E quanto a parassiti,
come classificare chi aiuta a vendere merda?

 ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:89967b11-e69a-4545...@r16g2000vbp.googlegroups.com...

e cosa pensi di fare? 

 e cosa pensi di fare?
non sono cazzi tuoi.

 ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:2ad63636-c40a-4206...@f11g2000vbf.googlegroups.com...

pensavo che Putin ti avesse proposto per qualche ruolo... :-)
O magari Chavez ti volesse fare dirigente di qualche compagnia statale... 
:-)
Nessuna notizia dalla Cina? :-) 

 Nessuna notizia dalla Cina? :-)
阴茎

??
i quadrati cosa significano? Un ideogramma segreto? :-))

 i quadrati cosa significano? Un ideogramma segreto? :-))
no, è un segno di riconoscimento per i miei nuovi capi. Loro vanno su
IPI (che ovviamente non capiscono), vedono quante volte ci sono gli
ideogrammi e pagano.

 ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:abb1a65b-c53b-43fd...@n33g2000vba.googlegroups.com...

quanto per me? :-)) Quanti yuan? :-)) 

 quanto per me? :-)) Quanti yuan? :-))
comincia a parlare bene della Cina. Toh, comincia a studiare qui
http://www.bibliotecamarxista.org/Mao/libretto_rosso/Libretto_Rosso.PDF
e cita con dovizia. questa è perfetta per l'8 marzo, per esempio:
"Occorre che tutta la manodopera femminile prenda il suo posto sul
fronte del lavoro, dove verrà applicato il
principio "a eguale lavoro eguale salario," e ciò deve essere
realizzato nel tempo più breve."

giovanni ha scritto:

Quarant'anni dopo, cento dollari al mese per tutti <g>

comincia a parlare bene della Cina. Toh, comincia a studiare qui
io parlavo della mia taglia...Come sto in classifica nella lista nera di Hu 
Jintao? :-)) 


wrote:
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a me ne danno di più :D

giovanni ha scritto:
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
Forse non hanno studiato economia sul libretto rosso...


wrote:
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adesso non me lo ricordo tutto a memoria, ma non mi pare che vi si
parli dei costi della coltivazione delle quinte colonne