Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: a Londra sono in pensiero per i terroristi ceceni senza capo

 i protettori londinesi di quella merda di Zakayev (che nell'articolo
continua ad incensare quella merda criminale di Basayev) pian pianino si
rendono conto che la pacchia sta finendo...
Rebels' dilemma after Basayev death  
After the death of Chechen rebel commander Shamil Basayev in an apparent
Russian attack, a look at how Chechnya's conflict may develop. 
Basayev's death leaves a gap in Chechnya which no other living rebel
figure could fill. 
 
Basayev's face is for many the face of the Chechen conflict 
Most Russians would not want to see that gap filled in their worst
nightmares, associating him forever with the dead children of Beslan. 
In the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, his violent death was
"deserved retribution" for the school attack. 
Izvestia newspaper writes that his "triumphant face" was to most Russians
the terrifying symbol of a bloody era. 
"There is simply no justification for what happened in the school and I
know that Shamil Basayev regretted it in his heart and soul," says Akhmad
Zakayev, foreign minister in the Chechen rebels' unrecognised government. 
  In Chechnya, the flames are dying down and it is just going to be a pit
of hot ashes but, already, the rest of the North Caucasus is on fire 
Mark Galeotti
security analyst 
"Yet I do not believe that history will remember Shamil Basayev primarily
for Beslan, but for his 15-year fight against Russian occupation." 
Separatists particularly prefer to remember Basayev as the man who
recaptured the capital, Grozny, from under Moscow's nose in August 1996. 
Shaken by the sheer audacity and skill of that assault, Russia withdrew
from Chechnya within months. 
The question now is: could the rebels recapture it today? 
A decade on, things look very different - not least the state of Russia's
security forces. 
Training and tip-offs 
"They are definitely getting more of a grip on fighting the rebels," says
Mark Galeotti, an expert on security issues in Russia at the UK's Keele
University
 
He believes the rebels have been in decline since the death of their
President, Aslan Maskhadov, in a Russian attack in March 2005. 
"Security forces get most of their breaks through informants and, as the
morale and the logistics within the rebel movement collapse, more of them
emerge," he says. 
Anatoly Tsyganok, an analyst at Moscow's IPVA defence think-tank, says
that terror attacks in Russia have gone down in recent years, partly
thanks to the security forces' work. 
"The special forces really have become better trained and more
professional in recent years," he says. 
"There may not be much new money coming in but the level of corruption
within the forces has fallen or, at any rate, there have been no recent
major cases of blunders or major leaks of information to criminals." 
He believes that Russia's special services killed both Basayev and
Maskhadov, and Abdul-Khalim Saydullayev, Maskhadov's successor, though he
thinks it was a failing not to have captured them and put them on trial. 
Dangerous allies 
Dr Galeotti says that Moscow's successes against the rebels are due in
part to paramilitaries loyal to Chechnya's pro-Moscow Prime Minister,
Ramzan Kadyrov. 
"Increasingly you see rebels accepting government amnesties and these
ex-guerrillas tend to get co-opted into the security forces," he says. 
"And they're the ones who know the hideouts and the terrain." 
Dr Galeotti adds, however, that it is no secret that the methods of the
"Kadyrovtsy" are brutal and, in the long term, risk alienating the
ordinary Chechen. 
Anatoly Tsyganok suspects that "a certain percentage of Kadyrov's Guard is
made up of fighters who took part in terror attacks". 
"My fear is that by giving large quantities of weapons to the former
fighters who make up most of Kadyrov's Guard, Russia is creating future
problems for itself." 
War of attrition 
Akhmad Zakayev, who now lives in exile as a fugitive from Russian justice,
does not accept that Russia's special forces killed Basayev and
Saydullayev although he says they tracked Maskhadov through a mobile
phone. 
  If we keep looking back, the bloodshed will not end in the North
Caucasus 
Akhmad Zakayev
Chechen rebel foreign minister 
Chechen "partisans", he argues, are still fighting their war for
independence and he blames a Russian media blockade for giving the
impression the conflict has quietened down. 
Big operations like Grozny August 1996 now make no sense, he says, because
Vladimir Putin's Kremlin would not negotiate. 
The Russian government's official position is that it does not negotiate
with terrorists. 
"Today's Russian president wants most of all to maintain the status quo
and is not moved by bloodshed," he says. 
"Our tactic today is to wear out our opponent by delivering painful
strikes to his communications and his positions." 
Akhmad Zakayev says that Basayev's death is "a serious loss" to the
separatists' cause but the rebels "have people who can replace him". 
The separatists' current president, Doku Umarov, will shortly appoint a
new overall military commander to replace Basayev, he adds. 
Divided camp 
As for Mr Umarov himself, Akhmad Zakayev considers him a "good leader...
who controls the situation in Chechnya 100%". 
According to Mark Galeotti, Doku Umarov is a "relatively competent,
middle-level guerrilla commander". 
"He knows how to sort an ambush and arrange a raid but we are talking
about the B-list here," he says. 
In Dr Galeotti's view, the rebel leader just does not have a "credible
vision" to unite the rebel movement which, he says, has seen a "process of
fragmentation" since the death of Aslan Maskhadov. 
"Since Maskhadov went, the rebels have not had a serious single political
leader," he says. 
"The rebel movement has been increasingly taken over by Islamic
extremists. From the ordinary Chechen's point of view, you may hate the
Russians and despise the pro-Moscow government as puppets. 
"But increasingly, the rebels are not even ethnic Chechens, so that from
the ordinary Chechen's point of view these Islamic extremists are just
another bunch of invaders using Chechnya as their own battleground." 
'Cinder pit' 
Anatoly Tsyganok does not share the view that the rebels are a spent force
but predicts they will regroup. 
"It will take two to three months to restore communications disrupted by
Basayev's death between foreign sponsors of terrorism in Russia and those
involved directly in carrying it out," he says. 
Russia, Mr Tsyganok argues, will remain in Chechnya because a majority of
Chechens genuinely want it to be there but there will be the risk of new
attacks launched, perhaps, by new rebel leaders seeking to boost their
prestige. 
Akhmad Zakayev is calling for a new peace effort to end Chechnya's
conflict, which he says is unwinnable by force. 
His peace manifesto, he says, was prepared before Basayev's death and it
appears to be aimed at attracting the attention of the G8 summiteers
coming to Russia this week. 
"Sooner or later, Chechens and Russians will have to negotiate and sort
out their relations - if we keep looking back, the bloodshed will not end
in the North Caucasus," the Chechen separatists' foreign minister says 
"The sooner we do it, the fewer victims there will be of this pointless
war." 
If the war is not stopped, he argues, it will only spread to other parts
of the North Caucasus. 
Mark Galeotti predicts that, with the rebel movement splintered, future
Chechen attacks will be on a much smaller scale and Russia's security
focus will move elsewhere. 
"In a way, the conflict has already moved out to other adjacent regions
like Ingushetia and Dagestan," he says. 
"In Chechnya, the flames are dying down and it is just going to be a pit
of hot ashes but, already, the rest of the North Caucasus is on fire. 
"There is a whole variety of different gangs in the other regions and it
is these groups that are now going to be important." 
-- 
visitate 
http://www.comunisti-italiani.it/frames/index.htm
http://cubainforma.interfree.it/
il film sul 9/11 : 
http://www.loosechange911.com/
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/Berlin.jpg
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 rendono conto che la pacchia sta finendo...
Titolo che la dice lunga sugli abissi di fesseria a cui si sono ridotti 
i cani sciolti della disinformtatja, del tipo Sergei Tre-Piume.
Nell'articolo infatti non c' e' traccia di Londra. Signori del Cremlino 
liberatevi di questo parassita somarconiglio, ammesso che c'abbiate mai 
avuto a che fare...
Am.