Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Israel kicks its most important ally in the shins over Iran nuclear deal

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/26/israel-iran-nuclear-deal-historic-mistake
 
 
Israel kicks its most important ally in the shins over Iran nuclear deal
 
Netanyahu has not only weakened his leverage with the United States, 
he's weakened it with the other members of the P5+1
 
Michael Cohen
theguardian.com
, Tuesday 26 November 2013 12.45 GMT
 
When word came from Geneva that there was a deal with Iran on its 
nuclear program, the Israeli government faced a clear choice – support 
the agreement and call for continued vigilance in preventing Iran from 
getting a deal or blast the agreement as inadequate.
 
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose, not surprisingly, the latter 
course labeling the deal an "historic mistake". In the process he has 
further isolated Israel and widened what may be the most serious rift in 
US-Israel relations in two decades.
 
The crux of the growing US-Israel divide is the fact that the two 
countries simply don't see eye-to-eye on Iran's nuclear program. The 
Israelis want a complete dismantling of Iran's capabilities – a position 
that is unrealistic and short of using military force is never going to 
happen. Iran has progressed so far along the road to developing a 
nuclear capability that the issue today is what is the best way to slow 
the program and prevent Iran from going nuclear rather than reversing it.
 
Indeed, if Netanyahu stepped back from his red line, he might actually 
realize that the deal signed in Geneva goes a long way towards meeting 
that goal. In fact, it is rather shocking the number of concessions the 
US and its western allies were able to secure in Geneva without giving 
up that much in return. Under the agreement, Iran must stop all uranium 
enrichment above 5% and neutralize its stockpile of uranium that has 
been enriched to 20%. In addition, Iran must halt construction at the 
Arak nuclear reactor (which was potentially capable of producing 
plutonium for a bomb) and end the production, installation and 
maintenance of centrifuges used for enrichment purposes.
 
While these steps will not ultimately prevent Iran from getting enough 
material to make a bomb, they will certainly stop the process, a far 
better result than no deal at all. Perhaps most important, Iran has 
agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to have daily access to Iran's two major 
enrichment facilities – a level of transparency that the Arms Control 
Association rightly calls "unprecedented". These inspection measures 
will make it virtually impossible for Iran to pursue "breakout" nuclear 
capabilities without detection.
 
And what is Iran getting in return? Frankly, not much. The biggest 
carrot is relief from international sanctions – to the tune of 
approximately $7bn. This is not chump change, but considering that about 
$100bn in Iranian overseas assets will remain frozen and the vast 
architecture of international and unilateral sanctions will remain in 
place, it isn't that much, either. If anything, the continued pain 
caused by these sanctions is incentive enough for Iran to offer further 
concessions in negotiations toward a final agreement.
 
In fact, the Iranians have to know that a failure to abide by this 
temporary deal will basically ensure that sanctions will likely never be 
lifted against them. If Iran prefers having a bomb to having a 
functioning economy than theoretically they'd be OK with that. But then 
why enter talks in the first place; and why agree to such intrusive 
inspections of its nuclear facilities? Iran could just as easily 
continue to develop its capability and present the world with a fait 
accompli. Signing on that bottom line in Geneva has put enormous 
pressure on Iran to live up to its obligations or face dire consequences.
 
That Netanyahu describes these advances as a "mistake" is a reflection 
of how isolated he's made Israel on the Iran issue. No one – not even 
Israel's new bestie, France – is going to stand on that wall for the 
complete removal of Iran's nuclear program. In the pursuit of the 
perfect deal for Israel, they've made themselves into the enemy of the good.
 
The impact on US-Israel relations, however, could be more serious. The 
bonds between the US and Israel are too strong to be irreparably changed 
by this agreement (and Netanyahu's rhetoric), and the White House is 
already taking steps to ratchet down the heat. But increasingly, it 
seems clear that the current Israeli government is in denial about US 
policy toward the Middle East. America is not sprinting to the region's 
exits, but it's certainly taking a brisk walk in that direction. Getting 
out of Iraq and Afghanistan; resisting intervention in Syria; seeking to 
end the Arab-Israeli conflict and making a deal with Iran are the 
actions of a nation finally waking up to – and executing on – the fact 
that US engagement in the Middle East brings with it more costs than 
benefits.
 
This isn't a blip; it's the new reality in the Middle East and 
Netanyahu's harsh condemnation of the deal made in Geneva – a deal made 
in large measure to safeguard Israel's security – will only serve to 
reinforce the view among US policymakers and in particular President 
Obama that they're on the right path.
 
This is not to say that Netanyahu shouldn't do what he thinks is best 
for his
nation, and if he thinks the deal is a bad one, he's well within his 
rights to say so. But kicking Israel's most important ally in the shins, 
denigrating their diplomatic efforts, darkly hinting that they will 
unilaterally use military force and seeking to upend what is clearly one 
of President Obama's key foreign policy priorities, nuclear 
non-proliferation, is incredibly unwise.
 
By taking such a position, Netanyahu has not only weakened his leverage 
with the United States, he's weakened it with the other members of the 
P5+1. Over the next six months, as Iran and the P5+1 seek to forge a 
comprehensive agreement, Israel's ability to influence that deal – and 
the US negotiating positions – will be shaped by their public stance and 
their willingness to accept something less than an ideal solution. If 
the last 48 hours are any indication, they're not off to a good start.
-- 
Namib
.....
Земля - колыбель человечества, но нельзя вечно жить в колыбели
(Константи́н Эдуа́рдович Циолко́вский)

 
http://www.theguardian.com/
 
 
ah, beh; si, beh. Il (ahem) Guardian. ROTFL