Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Breaking the Syria-Iran Axis

http://www.jidaily.com/24Nvr/e
 
 
Assad's fall good for Israel
 
Op-ed: Greatest opportunity to curb Iran's ambitions lies in toppling
Syrian regime
 
Yishai Fleisher
 
Published: 	11.26.11, 15:11 / Israel Opinion
 
 
Everyone is talking Iran. Go to any AIPAC meeting and you will hear
about Iran, and if Israel's PM speaks publicly he will surely mention
Iran.
 
This is what Prime Minister Netanyahu said at the Joint Session of
Congress: "Time is running out, and the hinge of history may soon
turn. For the greatest danger facing humanity could soon be upon us: A
militant Islamic regime armed with nuclear weapons." On CNN, Ehud
Barak made similar points. The threat of Iran has been articulated
loudly by Israel.
Indeed, even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report
confirmed Israel's long-standing concerns that Iran aims to build a
nuclear weapon, which Israel sees as a threat to its existence.
However, the greatest opportunity to curb Iran's ambitions is sitting
on the world's doorstep. The potential upcoming fall of the Syrian
regime opens the door for Israel to finally gain greater regional
stability and for the world to begin throwing off the yoke of Iranian
fear.
Syria is the long arm of Iran, its striking force. From within Syria's
borders the powerful terror/political groups Hezbollah and Hamas
suckle the poison milk of armament, training, and Jihad inculcation in
relative safety. Syria provides the key overland route between Iran
and Lebanon which has served as a conduit for the transfer of massive
shipments of military hardware to Hezbollah in from Iran.
The US State Department estimates Iranian support of Hezbollah ranges
between $100 and $200 million annually. Through this military might,
south Lebanon has become the sole domain of Hezbollah.
Syria is also host to Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Hamas' control
room of terror. That makes perfect sense as both Hamas and Hezbollah
are Iranian proxies, and Iranian proxies feel good in Syria.
But now, the Syrian regime is facing what the Iranian regime faced in
2009 – a popular revolt. This time there is also an ethnic component:
Bashar Assad's sect, the Alawites, are but a 15% of Syria's majority
Sunni population. The Syrian regime, true to its emulation of the
Iranian regime, is simply killing people in the streets to put down
the revolt. So far the UN believes that the assault on opposition
supporters has left more than 3,500 dead in nine months. People on the
ground report much greater numbers, upwards of 10,000.
In Syria, opposition forces are gathering steam. Syrian army
defectors, some 15,000 Sunni conscripts, are banding together under
the name Free Syria Army and are transforming the uprising into an
armed insurgency. A new umbrella organization called Syria's National
Council is trying to unite anti-government groups. Even the Arab
League, usually reticent to call out a member state, has strongly
condemned and then suspended Syria from its ranks.
 
Support of Hamas will wither
However, while Syrians unite to fight the regime, and members of the
Arab League feel the pressure of the Arab street, China and Russia
have shown support for Assad's grip. In early October, Russia and
China vetoed a UN resolution blaming the Syrian regime for the
escalation of violence. Syria has long been Russian's main ally in the
Middle East and Russia maintains a naval base there. China fears
instability in a region that sells it oil. Both Russia and China also
have important economic and geopolitical interests in Iran and do not
want its power diminished.
But even the Chinese and Russian wall is destined to crumple. Ausama
Monajed, an adviser to the president of the Syrian National Council,
was quoted in "The Atlantic" saying that "The only thing saving the
regime so far has been that Russia and China were prepared to block
any resolution against Syria at the Security Council. But now it has
become clear that the Arab League will use its leverage with Russia
and China to persuade them to back their position and not use their
veto power, and it is clear that neither Russia nor China would
compromise their position with the Arab League, particularly Saudi
Arabia, just to save Assad."
So far the Arab Spring may have benefited Iran overall. Majid
Rafizadeh, an Iranian-Syrian Fulbright scholar and columnist for
Harvard International Review, wrote on Fox: "In terms of the nuclear
proliferation, the events of the Arab Spring seem to have benefited
the Iranian regime due to the fact that it has diverted the attention
of the international community from Iranian nuclear development to the
socio-political transitions in neighboring Arab nation."
That may have been true up to this point. But with the upcoming fall
of the Assad regime Iran's power will be weakened, at least locally.
The pernicious overland route between Iran and Hezbollah will be
hampered or broken. Hezbollah will have to go at it alone and maybe
face its own Arab Spring down the line. Without the Assad-state, the
Iranian backing of Hamas and Hezbollah will wither and leave the
terror proxies more vulnerable to an Israeli attack as well.
And for those who fear a Hezbollah preemptive strike on Israel,
Michael Young from the Lebanese English paper The Daily Star argues
that Sunni and Christians in Lebanon will balk at the idea of
Hezbollah taking Lebanon into a war against Israel on behalf of Iran.
Without Assad's regime to control these groups, Hezbollah will have
hostile elements at its rear preventing it from attacking Israel as an
Iran proxy.
Hopefully the effects of a successful Syrian uprising will spread even
farther. Maybe the fall of Syrian dictatorship will re-inspire the
Iranian people to try again, to stand up to despotic violence and
throw off the yoke of Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad once and for all.
No one knows what will replace the brutal Assad regime: A Jihadist
junta, a drawn out civil war or, or even the eventual rise of a
freedom loving society. But it is certain that breaking the Syria-Iran
axis will benefit Israel and the world also stands to gain through any
weakening of the ambitious Iranian war machine.

 Syrian regime
 
Se non ricordo male, agli inizi della rivolta siriana c'era qualche 
personaggio da cirque (forse alcolizzato) che sosteneva che Israele 
stesse "cagandosi addosso" per la caduta di Assad.
 
Cercai di spiegare che... LOL.
 
 
-- 
"Quando ti incontro per la strada ti darei calci nei denti. Ma forse non 
li senti. E' meglio se ti rullo di kartoni (kartoni)"

 wrote:
 
qui c'era un post il cui autore parlava di cazzi.

 qui c'era un post il cui autore parlava di cazzi.
 
Si offriva di guardarne?
 
 
-- 
Io non gufo l'Inter. Le spacco le corna.