Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Iraq Shi'ite pilgrims gather, civil war warning (Reuters)

 Iraq Shi'ite pilgrims gather, civil war warning
By Sami al-Jumaili  2 hours, 24 minutes ago
Ho marcato con asterischi l'affermazione di Allawi, la stessa che 
facevo una diecina di giorni da, e che mi e' valsa l'irrisione di De 
Cesari.
Mi chiedo *quanto* ancora gli americani se la sentiranno di restare...
Am.
KERBALA, Iraq (Reuters) - Hundreds of thousands of Shi'ite pilgrims 
gathered in the sacred Iraqi city of Kerbala on Sunday for a religious 
event held under tight security as a top politician said Iraq was 
already in a sectarian civil war.
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, writing to mark the third 
anniversary of the invasion, said to disengage from Iraq now would be 
like handing Germany "back to the Nazis" in 1945.
In Baghdad, Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish leaders were still struggling to 
form a national unity government more than three months after 
elections, raising fears that a political vacuum will play into the 
hands of insurgents and fuel violence.
Iran agreed to an Iraqi proposal to hold talks with the United States 
on stabilizing Iraq.
Standing beside Shi'ite and Sunni leaders at a news conference, 
President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, on Sunday backed a call by an Iraqi 
Shi'ite leader for the talks with Iran, which Washington accuses of 
meddling in Iraqi affairs.
"I am one of the people who supports this. The problem of Iraq has 
become an international one," said Talabani, who played down concerns 
that such talks would deepen divisions between political parties.
Sunni Arabs are deeply suspicious of the strong ties between Iran and 
its fellow Shi'ites leading the Baghdad government.
In Tehran, an Iranian government official said: "We have agreed to 
start talks with America on Iraq. Particularly on the timetable for 
departure of occupying forces."
Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi was pessimistic about the future, 
saying Iraq was nearing the "point of no return" on a path toward 
all-out military conflict.
Allawi, a secular Shi'ite appointed under U.S. supervision in 2004 and 
whose major offensives against both Shi'ite and Sunni guerrillas failed 
to halt insurgencies, warned that Iraq had already plunged into 
sectarian civil war.
*********"It is unfortunate that we are in civil war. We are losing 
each day an average 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not 
more. If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is," he 
told BBC television on Sunday.****************
U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad has been speaking frankly about 
avoiding the point of no return after the bombing of a Shi'ite shrine 
in Samarra last month pushed the country closer than ever to full-blown 
civil war.
Flying flags and flailing themselves, a sea of people filled roads to 
Kerbala ahead of Arbain, mourning the dead of the 7th century battle 
that confirmed a schism in Islam that has left Iraq dangerously divided 
between Sunnis and Shi'ites today.
Aside from a mortar that landed near a garage and caused no casualties, 
the event, which centers on Monday evening, was calm. But the blast was 
a reminder of Sunni Arab suicide bombers who have turned previous 
Shi'ite religious events into carnage.
Arab and Western leaders worry that if Iraq were to crumble, sectarian 
violence would spread throughout the Middle East with Europe and the 
United States also feeling the impact.
WIDER DANGERS
Washington is keeping a close eye on Iraq's strategic neighborhood, 
home to some close allies and worst enemies.
Defiant Iran has nuclear ambitions and both Sunni Saudi Arabia and 
Jordan have suffered from a deadly al Qaeda campaign to topple 
pro-Western Arab governments.
Iran accepted calls for talks with Washington by Iraqi Shi'ite leader 
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim on Thursday, but some U.S. officials are skeptical 
and believe it may be a ploy to divert attention from Iran's nuclear 
stand-off with the West.
Rumsfeld warned that the consequences would be dire if the United 
States pulled out of Iraq too quickly.
"Turning our backs on postwar Iraq today would be the modern equivalent 
of handing postwar Germany back to the Nazis," he wrote in the 
Washington Post ahead of Monday's anniversary of the invasion on March 
20, 2003.
Wary that an attack on the Shi'ite pilgrims could unleash a new wave of 
bloody reprisals, the Kerbala authorities deployed at least 8,000 Iraqi 
police and soldiers in the city.
Local officials say they expect as many as 2 million people to attend 
the mourning ritual on Monday evening in Kerbala, 110 km (68 miles) 
southwest of Baghdad.
Under pressure to raise hopes in Iraq and back home that stability is 
possible, the U.S. military carried on with what it called the biggest 
"air assault" since just after the invasion.
A U.S. military statement said more than 60 suspected insurgents had 
been captured in Operation Swarmer near Samarra, north of Baghdad.
In an unrelated operation, U.S. troops killed eight people, including a 
family, after their patrol was ambushed in a nearby town early on 
Sunday, Iraqi police said.
Police said three of the victims were a 13-year-old boy and his parents 
who were shot dead when U.S. soldiers entered their house in the Sunni 
town of Duluiya, about 90 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad. The U.S. 
military denied the report.
(Additional reporting by Sami al-Jumaili in Kerbala and David Clarke in 
London, writing by Michael Georgy)

 Mi chiedo *quanto* ancora gli americani se la sentiranno di restare...
Fino a quando sara' necessario, visto che di "guerra civile" non si vede
proprio una sega.
-Stefano

 proprio una sega.
Tu credi che saranno in grado di restare per altri sette anni - dieci 
anni e' stato il lasso di tempo previsto dai generali USA per 
pacificare l'Irak ?
E questo coni la questione Irakena e il deficit aggiuntivo che provoca 
(con conseguente aumento dei mutui) potrebbe diventare la principale 
questione delle prossime elezioni?
Be', io non credo che nemmeno l'amminstrazione Bush sappia bene come 
cavarsela. Da qui la disperazione di Rumsfeld...
Am.

pacificare l'Irak ?
Che quello sia "il lasso di tempo previsto dai generali USA per
pacificare l'Irak" e' una stronzata di tua fantasia.
-Stefano

 pacificare l'Irak" e' una stronzata di tua fantasia.
Santa pazienza... E' quello che pensavano nell'ottobre 2002. Cosi' il Guardian:
The US has plans to establish an American-led military administration 
in Iraq, similar to the postwar occupation of Germany and Japan, which 
could last for several years after the fall of Saddam Hussein, it 
emerged yesterday.
The plans, which surfaced after President George Bush won a resounding 
congressional mandate to use force in Iraq, envisage the biggest 
"nation-building" effort the US has undertaken since the end of the 
second world war.
The occupation of the country would need an estimated 75,000 troops, at 
an annual cost of up to $16bn (£10bn), and would almost certainly 
include British and other allied soldiers. It would be run by a senior 
American officer, perhaps General Tommy Franks, who would lead the 
assault on Iraq, and whose role would be modelled on that of General 
Douglas MacArthur in postwar Japan.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,810609,00.html
Poi magari le cose sono andate troppo storte...
Am.

 -Stefano 

 Douglas MacArthur in postwar Japan.
Un'altra traccia (ve ne furono varie all'epoca delle sorti magnifiche e 
progressive):
 Gross said there were detailed plans and assumptions—from both the 
State Department and the military's Central Command—about what would be 
needed to transition from a post-war occupation to a self-rule. He said 
that at a meeting with Garner, Wolfowitz was told it would take 36 
months to put a viable Iraqi government together and that a sizeable 
American military force of more than 100,000 troops would be needed for 
five, maybe 10 years.
http://www.dedefensa.org/article.php?art_id=1071
Da allora, come da articolo, vi sono state varie fazioni al potere 
sull'Irak nell'amministrazione USA, e quindi non si riesce piu' neanche 
a capire se gli USA vogliono rimanere (dichiarazioni Bush dei giorni 
scorsi) o preparare una exit strategy (Condi Rice).
Am.

 Poi magari le cose sono andate troppo storte...
Oppure quelle sono le solite stronzate del Guardian, che non parla
nemmeno dei tuoi fantasiosi 7-10 anni. :)
-Stefano

neanche bush: sei rimasto da solo
Certo, certo... :)
*pat pat*
-Stefano

sull'Irak nell'amministrazione USA,
Certo, certo... :)
*pat pat*
-Stefano

 Was told ... DA CHI? :)
Dai consulenti militari, no? Se ti leggi l'articolo ci arrivi anche tu...
Eppoi e' cosa nota che gli USA si immaginavano folle di tipo giapponese 
festanti, consegna di WMD e pozzi petroliferi alla Halliburton, ecc...
Solo che non e' andata cosi', Potamocero di Brazzaville... hanno creato 
una giungla piena di animali feroci, dove ti troveresti a tuo agio...
Hic Sunt Leones...
Am.

a tuo agio...
...disse il bue all'asino...
-Stefano

 Mi chiedo *quanto* ancora gli americani se la sentiranno di restare...
e gli inglesi che , della carneficina irachena (torture, sparimenti,
stragi eccetera), sono complici al 100% degli americani?
-- 
 
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 stragi eccetera), sono complici al 100% degli americani?
E quanto tempo se la sentiranno gli inglesi di riimanere (e gli..., e 
gli..., e gli..)
Quanto alle carneficine, pensa a quelle che fa o sponsorizza Mosca, 
reperesssione in Bielorussia compresa...
E guai se ti opponi, che ti do' l'ergastolo - e ti tolgo pure Internet....
Am.