Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Who gets the Golan?

Who gets the Golan?
Israel has no reason to trust Syria in talks over that strategic area.
By Yossi Klein Halevi
May 28, 2008
JERUSALEM -- The Israeli mainstream, so the truism here goes, is so
desperate for peace that, in the end, it will overcome misgivings over
relinquishing territory and mistrust of Arab intentions and endorse
any diplomatic initiative aimed at solving the Middle East conflict.
After all, the majority of Israelis have supported every withdrawal so
far -- from the Sinai desert in 1982 to the pullout from Gaza in 2005.
And according to polls, a majority of Israelis are prepared to leave
most of the West Bank and create a Palestinian state.
But that willingness to relinquish territory for peace -- or even a
respite -- ends with the Golan Heights, which Israel won in the 1967
Six-Day War and whose fate Israel and Syria are negotiating. By an
overwhelming majority, Israelis oppose ceding the Golan to Syria, even
in exchange for a promise of peace from Damascus. So does a majority
of the Israeli parliament, along with most Cabinet members from the
governing party, Kadima.
One reason is that few here believe that the regime of Bashar Assad
will honor an agreement. No Arab state has consistently shown greater
hostility to Israel than Syria. The Palestinian terrorist movement
Hamas is headquartered in Damascus; Syria is Iran's leading Arab ally.
Without a Syrian attempt to convince the Israeli public of its benign
intentions, domestic opposition will stymie any attempt by Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert to cede the Golan to Assad. And the prospects for
a convincing Syrian overture are almost nonexistent.
The Middle East conflict has produced two models of Arab peacemakers.
The first was former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who realized that
the key to resolving the conflict was psychological. The Israeli
public needed to be convinced that, in exchange for concrete
concessions, it would win legitimacy from the Arab world. And so Sadat
flew to Jerusalem, addressed the Israeli parliament and announced that
Egypt welcomed Israel into the Middle East. The result was an Israeli
pullback from every last inch of Sinai.
The second model was former Palestinian Authority President Yasser
Arafat, who, rather than prepare his people for peace, assured them
that Israel was an illegitimate state destined to disappear. And when
Israel offered the Palestinians a state, Arafat's response was a war
of suicide bombings. The result was an indefinite deferment of
statehood.
Grudging and suspicious, Assad reminds Israelis far more of Arafat
than of Sadat. So far, Assad has refused even to hold direct
negotiations with Israel, preferring Turkish interlocutors. Give me
the Golan, he is in effect saying, and then we'll see what kind of
peace develops between us.
But Israelis are hardly in a rush to part with one of the most beloved
areas of their country. For Israelis, the Golan Heights, with its
empty hills and vineyards, is more Provence than Gaza. Unlike the
Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza, the Golan poses no
moral or demographic dilemmas. Here there is no occupation of another
people; barely 20,000 Druze, and an equal number of Jews, share the
nearly 700-square-mile area.
Under Syrian control before the 1967 war, the Golan was Israel's most
volatile border. Many here still recall the years when Syrian soldiers
on the Golan routinely shot at Israeli civilians in the Galilee below.
After 1967, though, the Golan became Israel's most placid border.
Israelis sense that, for the sake of quiet if not formal peace, it is
far better to have their soldiers overlooking Syria than for Syrian
soldiers to be once again looking down on the Galilee.
Israeli advocates of a Golan withdrawal argue that Syria may be
enticed to sever its ties with Iran as part of a peace agreement.
Neutralizing a potential Syrian front in a future Middle East war --
with Iran, say -- would be a major gain for Israel, which is why much
of the Israeli strategic community supports negotiations. Syria,
though, continues to affirm the primacy of its alliance with Iran.
And, during a visit this week to Tehran, Syrian Defense Minister
Hassan Turkmany reinforced that message by signing a security
agreement with Iran.
Two Israeli leaders, Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak, tried and failed in
the 1990s to reach an agreement with Bashar's father, the late Syrian
leader Hafez Assad. Though both Rabin and Barak agreed to a full
withdrawal from the Golan, the Syrians demanded more: several hundred
yards of shorefront on the Sea of Galilee, Israel's main freshwater
source, which the Syrians had seized from Israel before 1967. When
Rabin and Barak refused to allow Hafez Assad to fulfill his stated
dream of again dipping his feet into the Sea of Galilee, negotiations
collapsed.
The current negotiations will almost certainly fail too. In fact,
possessing the Golan is hardly Assad's top priority. Instead, Assad
has two more pressing interests: evading an international tribunal
investigating the Syrian government's complicity in the murder of
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and deflecting attention from
the intensifying domination of Lebanon by the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah
alliance. Negotiations with Israel -- regardless of whether they
actually succeed -- help Assad achieve both goals, by deflecting world
attention from the destruction of Lebanese sovereignty and by
transforming him from pariah to peacemaker.
Israel's Olmert hopes that peace negotiations will deflect attention
from his own woes -- allegations of corruption dating in part from his
days as Jerusalem's mayor. Other Israelis, though, are wondering how
helping Assad destroy Lebanon and escape justice can possibly be
confused for Israel's national interest, let alone for a peace process
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-halevi28-2008may28,0,7689717.story

 Who gets the Golan?
dov'è il problema? Adesso il governo cade e Barak prenderà una
tranvata epica che neanche nel '77 così il tuo amico Bibi può mandare
tutto a puttane in secula seculorum