Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: I due incubi di Israele

http://www.antiwar.com/orig/cook.php?articleid=12489
Un'ottima analisi che mette in luce i veri timori di Israele:
a) Che Hamas ripeta il successo di Hezbollah:  Dimostrare all'opinione
pubblica Israeliana che l'IDF non puo fermare il lancio di razzi e che
e' necessario trattare.  In parte e' gia successo: Il sindaco di
Sderot vorrebbe trattative di tregua con Hamas
b)  Che a Gaza si formi un movimento non-violento e di massa di
disobbedienza civile.
Che un bel giorno, donne e bambini in sfondino il muro che separa Gaza
da Israele, davanti alle telecamere di tutto il mondo.  Non lasciando
ai soldati altra scelta che lasciarli passare o commettere un
massacro.
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First, Hamas' development of more sophisticated and longer-range
rockets threatens to move Hamas' resistance to a much larger canvas
than the backwater of the small development town of Sderot. The
rockets that landed last week in Ashkelon, one of the country's
largest cities, could be the harbingers of political change in Israel.
Hezbollah proved in the 2006 Lebanon war that Israeli domestic opinion
quickly crumbled in the face of sustained rocket attacks. Hamas hopes
to achieve the same outcome.
After the strikes on Ashkelon, the Israeli media was filled with
reports of angry mobs taking to the city's streets and burning tires
in protest at their government's failure to protect them. That is
their initial response. But in Sderot, where the attacks have been
going on for years, the mayor, Eli Moyal, recently called for talks
with Hamas. A poll published in the Ha'aretz daily showed that 64
percent of Israelis now agree with him. That figure may increase
further if the rocket threat grows.
The fear among Israel's leaders is that "creeping annexation" of the
occupied territories cannot be achieved if the Israeli public starts
demanding that Hamas be brought to the negotiating table.
Second, Hamas' mobilization last month of Gazans to break through the
wall at Rafah and pour into Egypt has demonstrated to Israel's
politician-generals like Barak and Vilnai that the Islamic movement
has the potential, as yet unrealized, to launch a focused mass
peaceful protest against the military siege of Gaza.
Meron Benvenisti, a former deputy mayor of Jerusalem, noted that this
scenario "frightens the army more than a violent conflict with armed
Palestinians." Israel fears that the sight of unarmed women and
children being executed for the crime of trying to free themselves
from the prison Israel has built for them may give the lie to the idea
that the disengagement ended the occupation.
When several thousand Palestinians held a demonstration a fortnight
ago in which they created a human chain along part of Gaza's fence
with Israel, the Israeli army could hardly contain its panic. Heavy
artillery batteries were brought to the perimeter and snipers were
ordered to shoot protesters' legs if they approached the fence.
As Amira Hass, Ha'aretz's veteran reporter in the occupied
territories, observed, Israel has so far managed to terrorize most
ordinary Gazans into a paralyzed inactivity on this front. In the main
Palestinians have refused to take the "suicidal" course of directly
challenging their imprisonment by Israel, even peacefully: "The
Palestinians do not need warnings or reports to know the Israeli
soldiers shoot the unarmed as well, and they also kill women and
children."
But that may change as the siege brings ever greater misery to Gaza.

 Un'ottima analisi 
Come si dice... "chi vive sperando..."
IMHO nemmeno questo ti aiuta molto, Torrieri.
Tb
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