Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Stanley McChrystal's fate unclear after Obama meeting

Continua ad apparirmi improbabile che un ufficiale esperto come 
McChrystal abbia involontariamente commesso l'errore di criticare 
pubblicamente il potere politico.  E non solo lui l'avrebbe commesso ma 
anche il suo staff.
Se si mettono a confronto le due ipotesi: quella dell'errore e quella 
dell'azione volontaria, a mio giudizio la più probabilmente vera è la 
seconda.
Ma in questo caso, a quale scopo McChrystal avrebbe voluto provocare 
l'amministrazione Obama fino a questo punto?
Provo ad analizzare per prima cosa gli effetti che ha già avuto la sua 
sortita.
Il primo effetto è stato quello di aver posto fragorosamente 
all'attenzione il giudizio del generale sul potere politico responsabile 
della strategia di guerra.  Un giudizio severamente beffardo, un 
giudizio che tutte le sue scuse successive, che peraltro riguardano 
l'opportunità di averlo espresso in pubblico non la sua sostanza, non 
riescono a recuperare.  Questo naturalmente costringe il pubblico e gli 
osservatori a valutare la fondatezza di questo giudizio, e questo 
comporta una valutazione su come il potere politico sta conducendo la 
guerra.
Il secondo effetto è stato la sortita di Karzai, il quale ha detto 
chiaramente che non vuole che McChrystal sia rimpiazzato.  Questa 
sortita è abbastanza sorprendente e significativa se si tengono presenti 
le recenti dichiarazioni "antiamericane" del presidente afgano e la sua 
apertura ad una autonoma trattativa con i taliban. Sembra scontato che 
se McChrystal venisse rimosso Karzai accentuerebbe queste sue linee di 
indirizzo come scelta autonoma alternativa alla incapacità statunitense 
di venire a capo del conflitto.
Il terzo effetto è stato quello di porre all'attenzione e alla 
valutazione pubblica l'efficacia sul terreno dello stile di comando di 
McChrystal, comparata a quelle seguite precedentemente.  La riduzione 
del 44% delle vittime civili è riconosciuto dagli stessi afgani come un 
suo merito.
Tenuto presente questo, e scartando l'ipotesi della involontarietà del 
gesto, mi pare che rimangano in piedi solo due ipotesi: o McChrystal ha 
voluto dare la sveglia ad un potere politico poco impegnato e poco 
responsabile rispetto alla gestione del conflitto oppure ha voluto 
prevenire un cambio di strategia che o il potere politico o il pentagono 
stavano preparando.
A questo punto se McChrystal venisse dimissionato le conseguenze 
sarebbero chiaramente negative per il corso della guerra; se non venisse 
dimissionato l'amministrazione sarebbe costretta a dargli un più deciso 
supporto.  In ogni caso la scelta non sarebbe limitata alla sua persona.
-----------------------------------------
Stanley McChrystal's fate unclear after Obama meeting
Page last updated at 16:03 GMT, Wednesday, 23 June 2010 17:03 UK
The top US military commander in Afghanistan has left the White House 
after meeting President Barack Obama to explain his criticism of leading 
officials.
Gen Stanley McChrystal held a one-on-one meeting with Mr Obama which 
lasted about 30 minutes.
It is unclear whether or not he still retains his position in the military.
Gen McChrystal had agreed with Mr Obama that the statements in Rolling 
Stone magazine showed "poor judgement".
Gen McChrystal was also due to attend the monthly meeting on Afghanistan 
and Pakistan and face some of those he and his aides criticised, but it 
is unclear if he has done so.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has again indicated he does not want Gen 
McChrystal replaced.
'Enormous mistake'
Gen McChrystal arrived back in Washington in the early hours local time.
The Afghanistan-Pakistan meeting is scheduled for late morning 
Washington time and it is not clear whether the one-to-one meeting will 
be before or after that.
The BBC's Kim Ghattas in Washington says Gen McChrystal has been meeting 
Defence Secretary Robert Gates.
Gen McChrystal quickly apologised for the magazine article, The Runaway 
General, written by Michael Hastings and due out on Friday, extending 
his "sincerest apology" and saying it showed a lack of integrity.
"It was a mistake reflecting poor judgement and should never have 
happened," he said.
President Obama said on Tuesday he wanted to talk with the general in 
person before deciding what action to take.
US media reports said Gen McChrystal had submitted his resignation, but 
it was up to the president to decide whether to accept it. There has 
been no official comment on the reports.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said the president was "angry" and 
that Gen McChrystal had made "an enormous mistake".
Mr Gibbs said "all options were on the table" regarding the fate of the 
general and wondered "what in the world was he thinking?"
Some experts suggest Mr Gibbs's harsh words were to make the president 
look tough and give him the option of keeping the general on after a 
warning.
However, some lawmakers have called for Gen McChrystal to quit.
Our correspondent, Kim Ghattas, says President Obama will have to choose 
between continuity in leadership in Afghanistan at a crucial time, and a 
unified leadership which shows him respect as commander-in-chief.
At the White House meeting on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Gen McChrystal 
is expected to face:
     * Joe Biden. Gen McChrystal had mocked the vice-president when 
asked a question about him. "Are you asking about Vice-President Biden? 
Who's that?"
     * Karl Eikenberry. Gen McChrystal said he felt "betrayed" by the US 
ambassador to Kabul during the long 2009 White House debate on troop 
requests for Afghanistan
     * James Jones. One of Gen McChrystal's aides says the national 
security adviser is a "clown stuck in 1985"
     * Richard Holbrooke. Gen McChrystal says of an e-mail from the US 
special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan: "Oh, not another 
e-mail from Holbrooke... I don't even want to open it"
The article also appeared to be critical of the president himself.
Referring to a key Oval Office meeting with Mr Obama a year ago, an aide 
of Gen McChrystal says it was "a 10-minute photo-op".
"Obama clearly didn't know anything about him, who he was... he didn't 
seem very engaged. The boss was pretty disappointed," the aide says.
In his first comments on the issue on Tuesday, President Obama said: "I 
think it's clear that the article in which he and his team appeared 
showed... poor judgement."
Reduced casualties
Duncan Boothby, a special assistant to Gen McChrystal who organised the 
Rolling Stone journalist's access to the commander, has resigned as a 
result of the article.
Cannot play media.You do not have the correct version of the flash 
player. Download the correct version
Afghan spokesman on "trusted partner" McChrystal
A spokesman for the Taliban said Gen McChrystal's recall was another 
sign of the start of the "political defeat" for US policies in Afghanistan.
But a spokesman for Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai said on 
Wednesday that the Afghan leader believed replacing Gen McChrystal 
"would not be helpful" for peace and stability.
The spokesman, Waheed Omar, said: "We hope there is not a change of 
leadership of the international forces here in Afghanistan and that we 
continue to partner with Gen McChrystal."
The BBC's Quentin Sommerville in Afghanistan says there is a belief 
among Afghan officials that Gen McChrystal has brought real improvement 
on reducing civilian casualties caused by the coalition - they are down 
44% so far this year.

 sulla leadership americana.
Staremo a vedere.