Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: "Cosa nostra e'...".

** F/up in it.politica.internazionale **
IRAQ, RICOSTRUZIONE: NIENTE AUTONOMIA, DECIDE WASHINGTON
Notizia del "Corriere della Sera" del 24 Aprile
La ricostruzione dell'Iraq offre possibilità alle imprese italiane, ma «tra
le difficoltà da affrontare c'è la sostanziale impossibilità di agire in
autonomia poiché i contratti sono interamente gestiti dagli Stati Uniti e,
in parte, dalla Gran Bretagna». Nel rapporto consegnato al governo viene
sottolineato che attualmente sono trenta le nostre aziende che già operano
nel Paese e trecentocinquanta quelle che si sono mostrate interessate a
partecipare agli appalti del dopoguerra. La previsione è che «nel medio
periodo la partecipazione delle imprese italiane al dividendo degli introiti
derivanti dalla vendita del petrolio appare assai remota».
Mentre «sul lungo termine l'obiettivo principale è quello di poter sfruttare
la creazione di zone "economic free" e di utilizzarle come basi stabili, per
rendere strutturale e non episodica la partecipazione alla ricostruzione».
Gli analisti ritengono che «il settore più sensibile al fluttuare
della domanda è quello cantieristico». «I Paesi maggiormente
coinvolti - spiegano - potrebbero essere la Francia e la Germania. L'Italia,
pur avendo un'ottima tradizione cantieristica attraverso il gruppo
Fincantieri, non dovrebbe essere toccata direttamente, in quanto non più
tradizionale fornitore dei Paesi del Golfo. Tuttavia i contraccolpi di una
potenziale crisi del settore potrebbero essere avvertiti nei contratti di
coproduzione e progetti franco-italiani».
Trascritto da Andrea
salo...@mediacomm.it

 Notizia del "Corriere della Sera" del 24 Aprile
[cut]
Interessante. Ecco anche il punto di vista di Krugman. Bye.
Namib
-------------------------
By PAUL KRUGMAN
New York Times
Published: April 23, 2004
On April 11 of last year, just after U.S. forces took Baghdad, I
warned that the Bush administration had a "pattern of conquest
followed by malign neglect," and that the same was likely to happen in
Iraq. I'm sorry to say those worries proved justified.
It's now widely accepted that the administration "failed dismally to
prepare for the security and nation-building missions in Iraq," to
quote Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies -- not heretofore known as a Bush basher. Just as experts on
peacekeeping predicted before the war, the invading force was grossly
inadequate to maintain postwar security. And this problem was
compounded by a chain of blunders: doing nothing to stop the postwar
looting, disbanding the Iraqi Army, canceling local elections,
appointing an interim council dominated by exiles with no political
base and excluding important domestic groups.
The lesson of the last few weeks is that the occupation has never
recovered from those early errors. The insurgency, which began during
those early months of chaos, has spread. Iraqi security forces have
walked off their jobs, or turned against us. Attacks on convoys have
multiplied, major roads have been closed, and reconstruction has
slowed where it hasn't stopped. Deteriorating security prevents
progress, lack of progress feeds popular disillusionment, and
disillusionment feeds the insurgency.
Why was it predictable that Iraq would go wrong? The squandered
victory in Afghanistan was an obvious precedent. But the character
flaws in the Bush administration that led to the present crisis were
fully visible in the months that followed 9/11.
It quickly became apparent that President Bush, while willing to spend
vast sums on the military, wasn't willing to spend enough on security.
And 9/11 didn't shake the administration's fanatical commitment to
privatization and outsourcing, in which free-market ideology is
inextricably mixed with eagerness to protect and reward corporate
friends.
Sure enough, the administration was unprepared for predictable
security problems in Iraq, but moved quickly -- in violation of
international law -- to impose its economic vision. Last month Jay
Garner, the first U.S. administrator of Iraq, told the BBC that he was
sacked in part because he wanted to hold quick elections. His
superiors wanted to privatize Iraqi industries first -- as part of a
plan that, according to Mr. Garner, was drawn up in late 2001.
Meanwhile, the administration handed out contracts without competitive
bidding or even minimal oversight. It also systematically blocked
proposals to have Congressional auditors oversee spending, or to
impose severe penalties for fraud.
Cronyism and corruption are major factors in Iraq's downward spiral.
This week the public radio program "Marketplace" is running a series
titled "The Spoils of War," which documents a level of corruption in
Iraq worse than even harsh critics had suspected. The waste of money,
though it may run into the billions, is arguably the least of it --
though military expenses are now $4.7 billion a month. The
administration, true to form, is trying to hide the need for more
money until after the election; Mr. Cordesman predicts that Iraq will
need "in excess of $50-70 billion a year for probably two fiscal
years."
More important, the "Marketplace" report confirms what is being widely
reported: that the common view in Iraq is that members of the
U.S.-appointed Governing Council are using their positions to enrich
themselves, and that U.S. companies are doing the same. President
Bush's idealistic language may be persuasive to Americans, but many
Iraqis see U.S. forces as there to back a corrupt regime, not
democracy.
Now what? There's a growing sense of foreboding, even panic, about
Iraq among national security experts. "This is an extremely uncertain
struggle," says Mr. Cordesman, who, to his credit, also says the
unsayable: we may not be able to "stay the course." But yesterday
Condoleezza Rice gave Republican lawmakers what Senator Rick Santorum
called "a very upbeat report."
That's very bad news. The mess in Iraq was created by officials who
believed what they wanted to believe, and ignored awkward facts. It
seems they have learned nothing.