Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Tocca all'Iran? La Cina non ci crede.

O, meglio, non ci crede il "Quotidiano del Popolo" del 24/1/2005...
Namib
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http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200501/25/eng20050125_171802.html
Observation: Will Washington go to war with Iran?
The sudden tension between US and Iran has again drawn world's attention
recently -- will Iran become the next target of Washington?
The news came out as New Yorker carried an article in its latest issue in
which the author, a Pulitzer Prize winner, revealed that the Pentagon had
sent a special force to Iran for collecting intelligence and locating the
whereabouts of the potential nuclear sites. Then UK-based The Guardian run a
report saying Pentagon hardliners were preparing to destroy Tehran's
"nuclear threats". The US and Europe media hype reminds people of the public
opinion preparation on the eve of the Iraqi war.
Despite of that, a cool-headed analysis shows a rather slim chance of US
attack on Iran. Firstly, the United States is still mired in Iraq, with its
death toll (which already reached 1,570) increasing every day. Domestic
anti-war cries have been surging as if apparently Pentagon would not be
allowed to launch another war with a waster of both money and manpower.
Second, Iran not only possesses a terrain more sophisticated than Iraq, but
also is as four times as Iraq in size and population. Its political
situation is fairly stable and its national strength, combat capability and
cohesion among people are all far unmatched if compared with Iraq. All these
weigh heavily on American mind.
Third, once going to war with Iran, the US will see no allies following
except Israel, and even Britain will not. Considering its large number of
contacts signed with Iran, Russian will certainly oppose.
Iran also boasts a better strategic position than Iraq. In case of war
outbreak, it will seal off the Strait of Hormuz at any cost. It is from this
strait that 40 percent of Gulf crude oil goes to every corner of the world,
so once supply is blocked the impact on oil markets and global economy will
be fatal. Considering this, even countries supporting the Iraqi war such as
Japan and the ROK will not be in favor of a war on Iran.
The European Union has still more reasons to adhere to "diplomatic
approach". It leaves the impression that it has been playing a double-role
play with the United States [:] the former offers the carrot while the
latter
holds up the stick. Such a tacit agreement between the two cannot be ruled
out. But on the other hand, trying to insure its trade and oil interests
with Iran, EU is certainly unwilling to see a war on Iran.
People have noticed that the Pentagon denied New Yorker's report but didn't
make a comment on The Guardian article. US Vice President Dick Cheney made
it clear on the very day of his inauguration that the United State will
continue to seek diplomatic means for the Iranian nuclear issue; but he
added that Iran tops the Administration's list of "potentially troubled
regions". Bush once also made remarks that diplomatic approach is the first
to be considered but other choices are also possible.
According to experts' assessment, it's still several years before Iran comes
into possession of nuclear weapons, which leaves time for mediation and
explaining Washington's patience. Of course, no military attacks at present
doesn't mean no plans or preparations, and the possibility of US target
bombing on Iranian nuclear facilities can never be ruled out. Iranian
President Mohammad Khatami, on the one hand, warned the United States
seriously, but on the other hand believed a war is of low possibility since
Washington is weighed down by various considerations. It seems that the US
is launching a psychological war to press obedience out of Iran through
pressure and threats.
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This article is carried on the first page of the People's Daily (Overseas
Edition), January 24 and translated by People's Daily Online

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Gia', anche Stalin era sicuro al 100% che Hitler non lo avrebbe ataccato nel
41.
In effetti fu una mossa disperata, presuntuosa e idiota.
Disperati presuntuosi e idioti, non ti suona famigliare?
Saluti Cad Ali'
--
Benito Amilcare Andrea Mussolini
(July 29, 1883 - April 28, 1945) ruled Italy
 as a dictator from 1922 to 1943.
 He created a fascist state through the
use of propaganda; through total control
 of the media, he disassembled the
 existing democratic government system.
 His biggest political mistake was to enter
 World War II on the side of Nazi
Germany; this made his regime a target
 for Allied attacks and ultimately led to his
             downfall and death.