Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Putin Goes to Belarus for Talks on Union

Putin Goes to Belarus for Talks on Union
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
 
(12-12) 15:36 PST MOSCOW, Russia (AP) -- 
Vladimir Putin could become the leader of a land even larger than Russia —
a development that may hinge on talks beginning Thursday in neighboring
Belarus.
Putin has unexpectedly revived efforts to create a single state from the
two former Soviet republics — a merger that would expand his options for
exercising power after he steps down from the Russian presidency next year.
Putin heads to the Belarusian capital, Minsk, on Thursday for discussions
on a framework for the long-debated union, fleshing out an existing
agreement that has meant little in practice.
A merger of Russia and Belarus could allow Putin to leave the Russian
presidency as promised in May yet still remain a chief of state.
"I wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to speed up a union with Belarus
.. to become the president of the unified state," said Gennady Zyuganov,
Russia's Communist Party chief.
Putin, who has indicated he will seek to retain significant influence
after term limits force him from the Kremlin, does have at least one other
option.
On Monday, he said he supported his protege, first deputy prime minister
Dmitry Medvedev, to become Russia's next president. Medvedev instantly
became the overwhelming favorite in the March 2 vote. Medvedev, in turn,
asked Putin on Tuesday to be his prime minister.
Putin has not commented publicly on the offer. But First Deputy Prime
Minister Sergei Ivanov, a senior government official and close Putin ally,
said Wednesday that Putin was unlikely to respond swiftly to the proposal.
The creation of a single state could give Putin an alternative to the
Russian prime minister's post.
If the two countries can agree, it would mark the first merger of a former
Soviet state with Russia since the Soviet Union split apart in 1991 — a
step that would make many Russians proud.
But the move could damage Russia's relations with the West, especially if
Moscow is seen as using pipelines that supply Belarus with natural gas to
force the smaller country into an agreement.
Ahead of Putin's visit, Belarus' beleaguered Western-oriented political
opposition was already fighting the idea of a merger. Police on Wednesday
forced some 200 protesters from a Minsk square where they waved flags and
chanted "No union with imperial Russia!"
One of the leaders of the opposition Young Front was knocked off his feet
and stomped on by riot police. He was bundled into an ambulance,
unconscious.
Some analysts doubt a deal can be reached, because Belarus President
Alexander Lukashenko — a Soviet-style leader dubbed Europe's last dictator
by the West — is unlikely to cede power.
Lukashenko's office said last week the talks between Putin, Lukashenko and
other ranking officials would focus on a draft constitution of a union.
Russia's Ekho Moskvy radio quoted unidentified members of the Lukashenko
administration as saying Moscow and Minsk had struck a deal: Putin, the
sources said, would become president of a Russia-Belarus union while
Lukashenko would become the speaker of its parliament.
Officials in Moscow and Minsk have denied the report, but politicians and
commentators in both countries agree that Putin's trip signals a renewed
interest in the merger.
When Medvedev proposed that Putin become prime minister, many analysts saw
it as the Kremlin's preferred plan to maintain his influence. But some
said Putin would never accept what would amount to a demotion.
Pavel Borodin, secretary of the existing Russian-Belarusian executive
body, said Wednesday that drafts of the constitution being considered
would give the president of a new unified country the power to rule over
the current national governments.
He said the new constitution would be subject to approval by each nation's
parliament and would be put to voters in national referendums.
Putin could find it difficult to persuade the Belarusian leader to
relinquish his country's independence. And Lukashenko seems to lack the
leverage needed to win an agreement that favors Belarus, which has a
population of just 9.7 million compared to Russia's 141.4 million.
"Putin and Lukashenko have sought to outmaneuver and cheat one another
over the past few years," said Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in
Global Affairs magazine.
Russia and Belarus signed a union agreement in 1996 that envisaged close
political, economic and military ties, but efforts to achieve a full
merger have foundered.
In the 1990s, Lukashenko pushed for the creation of a single state,
apparently hoping to take reins from Russia's ailing President Boris
Yeltsin. Putin's election in 2000 demolished Lukashenko's hopes to rule
both countries.
Two years later the Belarusian leader angrily rejected a Kremlin proposal
for incorporating his nation into the Russian Federation — leaving him
without a job.
Bilateral relations soured. Lukashenko described Russia as a "huge
monster," saying Moscow's actions were worse than those of Nazi Germany,
which reduced much of Soviet Belarus to ruins in World War II.
If Lukashenko refuses to cede control, the Kremlin could try to force his
hand by using its most powerful weapon: energy.
At the year's start, Russia more than doubled the price of natural gas and
imposed a customs duty making oil more expensive. To pay its bills,
Belarus was forced to sell half of its national gas pipeline company to
Gazprom, Russia's state gas monopoly.
In August, Gazprom threatened to halt future natural gas shipments if
Belarus failed to pay what it already owed.
The two sides negotiated a settlement, but the threat of a further
increase in energy prices still looms over Belarus' heavily subsidized,
Soviet-style economy.
___
Associated Press writer Yuras Karmanau contributed to this report from
Minsk, Belarus.
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