Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Russia al capolinea?

Sunday, March 1, 2009
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav022609.shtml
IS PUTIN PUSHING RUSSIA OFF A FINANCIAL CLIFF?
2/26/09
Russia in recent weeks has used its apparent financial clout both to knock 
an American back out of Kyrgyzstan and to solidify its relationship with 
Kazakhstan. But recent economic data suggests that when it comes to 
assistance to Central Asian states, the Kremlin may be running a 
geopolitical Ponzi scheme -- guaranteeing returns that it will not be able 
to produce.
So far in 2009, Moscow has gone about lavishing money on its international 
friends as if the heady days of high energy prices still existed, and the 
global financial crunch had never hit. Even the Kremlin's old friend Cuba 
has been the beneficiary of largesse, receiving $354 million in credits 
recently.
Two of the highest profile outlays involve Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. In 
early February, Bishkek initiated the process of closing down the American 
air base at Manas following Moscow's announcement that it would give 
Kyrgyzstan $2.1 billion in aid. [For background see the Eurasia Insight 
archive]. More recently, Russian officials announced that a 
Kremlin-controlled bank would provide $3 billion to Kazakhstan, a large part 
of which would be used to modernize a coal-fired power plant. [For 
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The Kremlin has been behaving like a big spender, even though Russia is 
among the countries hardest hit by the global financial crunch. [For 
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. And the news just keeps getting 
grimmer for Moscow. Indeed, Russian government officials recently reported 
that the state budget is starting to groan under the weight of the country's 
economic burdens.
Russia's dependence on energy exports to generate income is the central 
problem. For 2009, state planners had put together a budget based on an oil 
price of $95 per barrel. But on February 26, the price of Russian oil was 
lingering at about half that level. Adding to the pressure on the budget, 
state revenue is projected to be 42 percent less than the government had 
predicted it would be. At the same time, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said 
state expenditures will be substantially higher in 2009 than envisioned, due 
to increasing outlays to stabilize the shaky economy.
Right now, according to Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina, 
Russia is projected to experience a 2.2 percent decline in GDP. But that 
projection could turn out to be a drastic underestimation, depending in 
large part on energy prices.
Initial figures for 2009 are turning out to be worse than the government 
anticipated. For instance, the government projected the overall decline in 
industrial production for 2009 to be 7.4 percent, and the annual inflation 
rate to check in at 14 percent. But in January, the government reported a 
19.9 percent drop in industrial production for the month compared with the 
total for December 2008.
What should be the most worrisome sign for the Kremlin is that its 
cash-reserve fund is evaporating at an alarming rate. Thanks in large part 
to several years of sky-high energy prices, Moscow put away 4.7 trillion 
rubles for rainy-day contingencies. Amid the deluge that is the current 
financial crisis, the Kremlin expects to burn through 2.7 trillion rubles of 
the reserve fund in 2009. The fund will run dry in 2010 if Moscow keeps 
spending at the current pace.
Under the barrage of bad economic news, Russia has seen its creditworthiness 
sink. For example, the cost of insuring against a Russian default on its 
debts has risen to an all-time high, the Financial Times reported February 
23. Moscow has about $500 billion in debts coming due in 2009.
Although the economic indicators make a convincing argument for fiscal 
restraint, the attitude of Russia's paramount leader, Vladimir Putin, 
appears to be: "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead." Nothing demonstrates 
Putin's outlook better than his recent comments on military spending. Over 
the next three years, Russia has committed $4 trillion rubles to modernizing 
Russia's armed forces. Those modernization programs will proceed, Putin 
insisted, regardless of Russia's fiscal woes.
While the Kremlin seems to be having problems realigning its capabilities 
with the new economic reality, Russia's population appears to be growing 
increasingly disgruntled. In one recent survey conducted by the All-Russian 
Center for the Study of Public Opinion, 49 percent of respondents said the 
Russian government should curtail its assistance commitments to foreign 
states during the financial crisis, and should instead devote a greater 
share of state funds to alleviating the crisis-related hardships being 
endured by Russian citizens.
Central Asian leaders, in particular Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who 
are making bets today that Russia will come to the financial rescue, may end 
up being sorely disappointed. Moscow's ability to finance long-term 
projects, such as the construction of hydro-power plants in Central Asia, 
will be severely tested in the coming years. Russia's days as a creditor 
nation may well be numbered. Those Central Asian leaders who banked on 
Russian help could end up being left to hold an empty bag.

 2/26/09
lo fai per depistarci vero? :-)) 

>Marco.
"Lord Curzon" <lord....@curzon.cur> ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:49ac3c79$0$1112$4faf...@reader2.news.tin.it...


>>tutti i problemi con una mentalità coloniale!
ah...l'Impero... ;-))