Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: perche' lo status quo e' sostenibile

Twice this week we have heard President Obama declare, as if it is
self-evident, that "the status quo is unsustainable."
It is worthwhile to examine exactly why the President believes that.
These seem to be the reasons he gave Sunday:
    First, the number of Palestinians living west of the Jordan River
is growing rapidly and fundamentally reshaping the demographic
realities of both Israel and the Palestinian territories. This will
make it harder and harder – without a peace deal – to maintain Israel
as both a Jewish state and a democratic state.
This is an old argument, and I cannot say that I am expert enough to
say how true it is. But it is worth mentioning that this is hardly a
universal view, and that there is much evidence that shows otherwise.
As with everything else, the truth needs to be determined outside of
politics.
    Second, technology will make it harder for Israel to defend itself
in the absence of a genuine peace.
A genuine peace is one where Israel's neighbors do not even fantasize
about attacking Israel. Not one where they are coerced into not
attacking by an ephemeral government, not one where they do not attack
because of the military consequences - but one where they simply have
no desire to, as I imagine most nations in Western Europe and the
Americas are.
This will never happen in the Middle East. There will never be that
level of peace, just as there wasn't between Israel and Egypt. The
best we can ever hope for realistically is a detente where the weaker
party has no desire to stir things up, even if it covets everything
owned by the other.
This means that the best that Israel can hope for is a "Palestine"
that keeps a short leash on its terrorists out of fear. Not love, not
friendship, but fear. Just as Israel is not currently overly concerned
about rocket attacks from Egypt, because it knows that Egypt will work
to stop any such attacks, that is the best that Israel can want from a
Palestinian Arab state.
And this is exactly the status quo today.
Anything that upsets this status quo will inevitably increase the
danger to Israel's citizens. The reason is simple: real peace is not
possible between Arabs and Jews who are not in a dhimmified state and
who control land considered to be both Arab and Muslim. Muslims aren't
going to change their religion and Arabs are not going to change their
culture just because the president wishes to use his supposed great
powers of personal persuasion.
    And third, a new generation of Arabs is reshaping the region. A
just and lasting peace can no longer be forged with one or two Arab
leaders. Going forward, millions of Arab citizens have to see that
peace is possible for that peace to be sustained.
The Arabs who are revolting have shown not only no desire to have a
peaceful relationship with Israel but a significant desire to fight
Israel. Whether this trend wil continue with each Arab uprising
remains to be seen but there is little reason to be optimistic.
Optimism, in this case, is the enemy of reality, and saying that peace
must occur because it, um,  just has to is simply ignoring reality.
Israel can do nothing to make Arabs like them enough for real peace,
in this or any other universe.
    Just as the context has changed in the Middle East, so too has it
been changing in the international community over the last several
years. There is a reason why the Palestinians are pursuing their
interests at the United Nations. They recognize that there is an
impatience with the peace process – or the absence of one. Not just in
the Arab World, but in Latin America, in Europe, and in Asia. That
impatience is growing, and is already manifesting itself in capitols
around the world.
Is impatience a reason to do something foolhardy? I can guarantee that
if these impatient countries knew that the "peace process" would lead
to war - and that this is pretty much inevitable - their enthusiasm
would wane quickly. They are also wishing and hoping for a peace that
is impossible.
Right now, under this supposedly unsustainable status quo, West Bank
Palestinian Arabs are in about as good shape as they were during the
90s under Oslo - an economic boom they threw away with the second
intifada. Gazans, now that they have mostly stopped rocket attacks,
are also in better shape then at any time since Hamas took over Gaza.
If an independent Palestine was declared, the economies of both areas
would plummet again. Israel would wash its hands of existing
agreements that have helped make Ramallah and Nablus and even Jenin
normal places again. The PA economy, right now completely dependent on
Israel (and curiously deficient in having forged close trading
relationships with other Arab countries) would go into a tailspin,
budgets wouldn't be met, police and security personnel wouldn't be
paid, and they would then migrate over to (probably Iranian-funded)
terrorist alternatives. This is not a pessimistic Likudnik pie in the
sky theory - this is what we saw happen during the second intifada. If
police aren't paid, they join terror groups who will pay them. In
Gaza, they're a bit more honest about it.
All of a sudden, the status quo doesn't look so bad. The
"unsustainable" status quo is a far sight better than what will
replace it.
http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-is-status-quo-unsustainable.html

 self-evident, that "the status quo is unsustainable."
certo, se si è tra quelli che tengono il piede sulla testa dei
palestinesi, è sostenibilissimo

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Anche per ANP & Hamas, visto che il loro potere si fonda appunto sullo 
status quo.
-- 
Namib
"I should never have switched from Scotch to Martinis"
(ultime parole di Humphrey Bogart)

 Anche per ANP & Hamas
Namib, ste stronzate lasciale a Nahum, che è sbroccato abbastanza per
permettersele. Nel mondo reale Anp e Hamas chiederanno il
riconoscimento all'ONU. Stacci

 pronto a concedere quasi tutta Gerusalemme, eppure non e' bastato.
Tauhrahsic non è ancora riuscito a capire che la proposta era israeliana e
il rifiuto palestinese.
Non si scherza col metanolo...
-- 
Io non gufo l'Inter. Le spacco le corna.

 Nel mondo reale Anp e Hamas chiederanno il riconoscimento all'ONU.
Insieme o separatamente? E perchè non lo hanno già proclamata la
Repubblica di Palestina?
PP

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Hanno studiato il progetto di Ben Gurion ma l'hanno copiato male
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 Repubblica di Palestina?
perchè rispettano l'ONU, loro.

 perchè rispettano l'ONU, loro.
LOL che minchia c'entra? L'ONU non ha la funzione di demiurgo di
staterelli, si è stato anche senza farne parte. Anzi, c'è chi
prospera, o ha prosperato, senza.
PP

 Hanno studiato il progetto di Ben Gurion ma l'hanno copiato male
Non c'hanno manco provato a copiarlo purtroppo per loro.
PP

 perchè rispettano l'ONU, loro.
Specialmente Hamas :) Ma che cazzo dici, frate? (quasi-cit.)
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 status quo.
Bravo, libera il gesuita che è in te, "compagno" namib.
E cosa, meglio del cerchiobottismo, esprime lo spirito del gesuita?
-- 
Sostieni Rete ECO
http://rete-eco.it/it/sostienici.html

 prospera, o ha prosperato, senza.
Chi?


>>>> Quoto :)
-- 
recoil is insignificant when there is a tiger on the head of your elephant

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mah, non so. Erudizione? Capacita' strategiche?
Tipo quel gesuita che passo' a un domenicano la voce "Anima" della
Encyclopedie e quello la approvo' e si trovo' a perdere una cattedra?
Mica sono dei pirla, i gesuiti.

 Ma informarsi mai? Il quieto vivere fa fare brutte figure, a volte.
Attento, namib è uno che ha foderato la Summa con la copertina del 
Capitale, e legge i Padri della Chiesa anche sulla tazza del cesso.
Sa bene che la ragione è ancella della Verità.
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 Chi?
La Svizzera per quasi tutta la storia dell'ONU, la RPC prima, Taiwan
poi.
PP


Quoto, mai stati
PP

 Specialmente Hamas :) Ma che cazzo dici, frate? (quasi-cit.)
E se volesse redimersi?  Che dicono i Padri della Chiesa: è redimibile 
il peccato mortale?
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 Il Caro Pubblico
Non ti immischiare, pirla: si tratta di questioni teologiche.
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 N[...]
Altra figura da pirla, altro cuttone.
LOL
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 poi.
Senti, con tutta la buona volontà, ma questa sembra più la proverbiale 
eccezione che una fantasmatica regola.
Scommetto che sei un estimatore di Giampaolo Pansa, il famoso "storico".
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 Scommetto che sei un estimatore di Giampaolo Pansa, il famoso "storico".
Mai coperto.
PP

 LOL
Scusa.  E' che mi imbarazza scrivere in mezzo alle cagate.
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 Scusa.  
Prego. È sempre un piacere...
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