Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Aspettiamo il botto

Greenspan warns over US deficit
By Andrew Walker
BBC economics correspondent
Non bisogna essre dei maghi della finanza, neanche dei consulenti in
conflitto di interessi su radio 24.
Gli USA erano messi male alla fine del 2000, ora stanno peggio.
L'Europa e' andata fuori di testa con l'euro, se scoppiano gli USA andra' a
vendere scarpe italiane da 500 euro in Congo.
Il Giappone e' rimasto gelato dai tempi della disputa economica con gli USA,
guai se gli USA alzano gli interessi e frenano.
La Cina deve avere tanti di quei crediti inesigibili al suo interno da
rischiare un effetto 29, ha tanti bond USA da far paura, potrebbe guadagnare
da un rialzo degli interessi negli USA, il suo prodotto low cost sarebbe
imbattibile per i poveri Yankee, da studiare.
Quando alza il tasso Greenspan? questione di giorni?
Gli altri vanno dietro? occhio ai mutui contratti.
Alan Greenspan has joined the chorus of warnings
US Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has warned that the deficit in US
trade with the rest of the world cannot be sustained indefinitely.
But Mr Greenspan, in a speech in Germany, could not say when or how the
adjustment would take place.
The deficit in US international trade is large by any standards - more than
$500bn over the last year, or more than 5% of the country's economy.
Many economists say it is unsustainable and adjustment could be painful.
But the deficit has been large for a decade and the adjustment has not
happened.
Nonetheless, Mr Greenspan has joined the chorus of warnings.
He is not predicting certain catastrophe now or indeed at any stage in the
future. But the implication is clear, that the inevitable adjustment might
come in a disruptive form.
  Cumulative deficits, which result in a marked decline of a country's net
international investment position - as is occurring in the United States -
raise more complex issues
Alan Greenspan
He focused on the financing of the deficit. In essence, a trade deficit
needs to be supported by foreigners investing in the US.
If they suddenly become reluctant to do so, the result in the financial
markets could be either a sharp rise in interest rates or a fall in the
dollar.
There was also a call in Mr Greenspan's speech for the US government to
tackle the deficit in its finances - or even move into surplus - as an
effective way of tackling the trade gap.
President Bush has said he plans to halve the deficit in the government's
finances. But it is clear that the government will continue borrowing.
On Friday, the president signed a new law that will allow the government to
borrow further $800bn.
Saluti Cad Ali'
--
Dalla sura * della Conversione*..............
"Combattete coloro che non credono in Allah e nell'Ultimo Giorno, che non
vietano quello che Allah e il Suo Messaggero hanno vietato, e quelli, tra la
gente della Scrittura  che non scelgono la religione della verità, finchè
non versino umilmente il tributo, e siano soggiogati" (Sura 9:29).
"Se non vi lancerete nella lotta, Allah vi castigherà con doloroso castigo e
vi sostituirà con un altro popolo, mentre voi non potrete nuocergli in
nessun modo" (Sura 9:39).
"Uccidete gli idolatri ovunque li troviate, fateli prigionieri, assediateli
e combatteteli con ogni genere di tranelli" (Corano 9,5).
"Combatti quelli che non credono in Allah... combattete finchè non paghino
con umiliazione il tributo" (Corano 9,29).


By Mark Weisbrot
The Unbearable Costs of Empire
Establishment types are trumpeting America's role as global police force.
Too bad the U.S. just can't afford the job
But what most analysts have missed -- whether or not they support the idea
of an American empire -- is that the U.S. simply can't afford the role of
global cop.
THE REAL DEBT.  First, the U.S. is entering this new age of empire with a
gross federal debt that is the highest in more than 50 years as a percentage
of gross domestic product. For fiscal 2005, which begins in October, the
U.S. gross federal debt is projected to be $8.1 trillion, or 67.5% of GDP.
By the time 100,000 U.S. troops were in Vietnam in 1965, it was 46.9% and
falling.
One technical point that's vitally important here: It's the gross federal
debt and deficits that matter, not the smaller "debt held by the public" and
"unified budget deficit" that are generally cited in the press. For example,
the most commonly reported estimate of the annual federal budget deficit is
$478 billion for 2004. But this number is misleading, because it doesn't
include borrowing from federal trust funds -- mostly Social Security and
Medicare.
But the money the government is borrowing from Social Security and other
trust funds will, with nearly 100% certainty, be paid back -- just like the
money it borrows when it sells bonds to Bill Gates or the Chinese
government. The annual federal budget deficit is, therefore, $639 billion,
according to the numbers from the Congressional Budget Office. This is 5.6%
of GDP, a near-record level for the post-World War II era.
BORROWING FROM ABROAD.  America can -- just barely -- afford this deficit
right now, but that's about to change. First, the interest burden on the
debt is currently manageable because of extremely low interest rates. But
the Fed is expected to raise short-term rates to 2% by yearend. More
important, long-term rates will almost certainly rise even more because
inflation has accelerated to 4.9% over the last six months -- a big jump
from 2003's 1.9%.
Then there's the problem of the U.S. -- both the government and the private
sector -- borrowing from foreign countries. Most government borrowing is now
being financed from overseas -- especially the central banks of China,
Japan, and other countries. These institutions are deliberately buying
dollars in order to keep their currencies from rising against the greenback.
But they won't keep doing this indefinitely. The U.S. is borrowing more than
$600 billion a year from the rest of the world, and it can't go on much
longer.
THE BIG BANG.  Sometime within a decade, and most likely in the next couple
of years, foreign investors will see that a steep decline of the dollar is
unavoidable and will begin to unload them and U.S. Treasury securities. As
with any bubble, it will be better if this one bursts sooner rather than
later, when it would be even bigger. But adjustment and pain will still
occur, including higher interest rates and consequently slower growth.
Slower growth will also mean larger federal budget deficits. And one event
that will certainly slow growth and increase federal government borrowing
well beyond current projections is the bursting of the housing bubble.
Housing prices have seen an unprecedented run-up since 1995 of more than 35
percentage points above the rate of inflation. That has created more than $3
trillion in paper wealth that -- just like the illusory wealth of the
stock-market bubble -- is programmed to disappear. This, too, is almost
certain to happen in the next few years.
The economic impact will be at least equivalent to that of equities popping
in 2000-02, which caused the last recession. Another slump is, therefore,
likely in the near future, and with it a further ballooning of the federal
budget deficit, as tax revenues fall and automatic countercyclical spending
rises.
CHINA RISING.  The combination of unsustainable public debt and foreign debt
is a deadly and explosive mix by itself. Rising real interest rates and a
looming housing bubble bursting make it all the more dangerous. Financial
markets will exert the necessary discipline if politicians refuse to do so,
but either way the U.S. can't afford even the $486 billion a year that it's
currently spending annually on the military and homeland security.
And even these spending levels are a lot less than would be necessary to
maintain America's power in the world. Over the next decade or so, the
Chinese economy will actually surpass the U.S. in size. America has 100,000
troops in East Asia. If the U.S. were to try to maintain its current
dominance of the region -- something that will probably prove impossible --
it would boost our military spending even further.
The bottom line is that the American empire just isn't affordable. Within a
decade or so, the U.S. will be forced to be much less preemptive and
outward-looking and to engage in scaled-back foreign policy -- even if the
foreign-policy Establishment never changes its views or ambitions.
REALITY CHECK.  In the meantime, the segment of American society that would
like to see advances in health care, education, poverty alleviation, or any
other positive economic or social goals will get bad news. The foreseeable
future is a lot different from most of the post-World War II era, during
which the U.S. added such programs as Medicare and Medicaid while spending
literally trillions of dollars on cold and hot wars.
This time, little or no federal money will be available for any of these
things until U.S. foreign policy changes. The most likely scenario is that
most areas of nonmilitary discretionary spending will be squeezed
relentlessly before anything gives in the realm of superpower ambitions.
The post-9/11 age of American empire will close not with a bang but a
whimper, suffocated by the laws of arithmetic, the constraints of public
financing, and the limits of foreign borrowing. What remains to be determine
d is how much the U.S. will pay -- in lost and ruined lives, as well as
bills for future generations -- and how many enemies it will make throughout
the world, before coming to grips with reality.
Regards
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 imbattibile per i poveri Yankee, da studiare.
Leggevo oggi su Repubblica che a causa dell'abbassamento del potere
d'acquisto gli acquisti degli italiani nei mercati rionali sono aumentati in
maniera pazzesca č interessante notare che la massima parte dei prodotti li
venduti vengono dalla Cina e gli ambulanti cinesi sono tantissimi e vanno in
giro vestiti sempre meglio... Ergo l'occidente č fottuto...

 Gli altri vanno dietro? occhio ai mutui contratti.
Quindi? Cosa succederebbe (secondo te)?
Ciao! 


I tassi attuali sono a livelli da record low, piu' bassi dell'inflazione che
negli USA tocca il 4.5 % annuo in europa siamo al 2.5% da prendere con le
pinze perche' nessuno ci crede, inevitabilmente si alzeranno con effetto
domino, chi ha debiti a tasso variabile verra' spremuto, chi ha capitale
avra' rendita.
A livello paesi gli USA hanno forte debito, l'Italia ha forte debito,
significa che con le tasse pagheremo interessi passivi.
Se gli USA non invertono il loro deficit commerciale col dollaro cosi' basso
e non riducono il deficit federale che fa 67.5% del PIL rischiamo una crisi
finanziaria.
Piccolo problema gli USA sono impegnati a sprecare denaro in guerra, se non
hanno a breve un ritorno dal conflitto in corso rischiano di trovarsi in
bolletta.
La loro politica tesa a colonizzare le nuove nazioni con classi dirigenti da
loro preparate e eterodirette ( vedi fondazioni Soros e caso Georgia )
potrebbe pagare nel lungo termine.
Ma per far vincere i propri pupilli necessita danaro, nuove basi militari
che costano, ovviamente controllando il FMI possono dare i soldi a chi
comoda loro e strangolare gli altri ( vedi Jugoslavia e Argentina ).
Potrebbe pero' succedere che i loro pupilli dopo aver incassato danaro
fresco perdano il potere, cosi' grandi investimenti tesi a favorire il
capitale USA in tali nazioni potrebbero rivelarsi a vuoto.
Ai tempi quando mettevano su qualche generale fascista era piu' facile e
sicuro, ora il gioco e' piu' rischioso, necessita il controllo dei media e
della opinione pubblica.
Li vedo come un colosso che spende molto, ma produce poco in termini di
prodotto, mentre produce molto in termini di politica estera agressiva,
investono in esercito e armi, per dominare l'economia globale, questo li
porta in rotta di collisione con almeno tre entita' Europa Cina Arabi e
aggiungo Putin che lo ha detto chiaro e tondo che una superpotenza egemone
non va bene e ammoderna i missili intercontinantali.
In breve gli USA senza danaro e con problemi finanziari sono una mina
vagante per la pace nel pianeta, sappiamo che sono figli di puttana capaci
di tutto con la loro CIA, adesso potrebbero piantare qualche casino per
riprendersi il predominio economico.
Anzi lo hanno gia' fatto in Iraq solo che gli sta andando male.
Saluti Cad Ali'

 Anzi lo hanno gia' fatto in Iraq solo che gli sta andando male.
Però l'occupazione americana (in senso lavorativo cresce), mentre
quella europea no e con serie crisi di ristrutturazione (il sistema
statale è un grosso costo ma difficile da riformare) vedasi la Germania:
http://tinyurl.com/3tuhn
aggiungici la notizia del tg che diceva che agli statli è stata tagliata
parte della tredicesima oltre ad un buono vacanze.
Ciao! 


Giustamente se non fanno cazzate sono in una botte di ferro, spero non
continuino a farle.
In quattro anni sono passati da surplus a rosso profondo, mentre si sono
impantanati nelle melme irakene, il trend non mi pare dei migliori.
Di oggi un bello scambio tra Russi e Americani, i primi dicono che una
superpotenza egemone portera' a dei carnai, i secondi eprimono
preoccupazione per l'ecessivo potere in mano a Putin.
La faccenda puzza, stiamo a vedere alla fine del prossimo anno in che guerre
saremo.
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Vero comincio a frequentarli anch'io, sono sempre aperti e vendono di tutto.
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