Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Previsioni (pessimistiche) per il 2005

Speriamo che non si avverino:
Sun, January 2, 2005
U.S. dollar's freefall to have global effect
ADD CHINA'S BANKING SYSTEM TO THE MIX, ERIC MARGOLIS WRITES, AND IT'S A
RECIPE FOR DISASTER  -  By ERIC MARGOLIS, TORONTO SUN
HERE ARE what will be the big stories of 2005, according to my cloudy
crystal ball: - The killer tsunami that struck Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and
India a week ago will cause years of ongoing economic damage and human
tragedy. Damage to Thailand will be quickly repaired. But Indonesia and
Sri Lanka, both rent by decade-old civil wars, will particularly suffer.
- The biggest problem the world faces this new year is the continuing fall
of the U.S. dollar. The Bush administration's reckless spending, ruinously
expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (now costing as much as the Vietnam
War), America's galloping trade deficit and credit spending frenzy are
creating the perfect economic storm.
Japan and China's central banks may give up trying to artificially shore
up the U.S. dollar by buying U.S. currency and securities. A plunging
dollar could cause foreign investors to start dumping U.S. securities and
assets. The result: A potential worldwide financial crisis that could
collapse the housing bubble, cause interest rates to soar, and send
securities markets into freefall.
- China's banking system is a house of cards. Uncontrolled credit
expansion has fuelled China's property boom and international buying
spree. Banks are swamped by bad, non-performing loans made to huge,
money-losing state-owned corporations. Collapse of China's insolvent
banking system would threaten world financial markets.
- The U.S.-led occupation of Iraq is a disaster for all concerned. The war
is slowly being lost. The big question in 2005 is if and how President
George W. Bush will extricate the U.S. from this catastrophe, which is
costing $6 billion US per month. The elections in Iraq four weeks from
today won't resolve this huge mess.
- "Terrorism" -- the insurgency against U.S. domination of the Muslim
world and its resources -- will intensify even after Osama bin Laden is
killed. He has created a new, powerful ideological movement that will
continue to shake the Muslim world and challenge its corrupt, autocratic
rulers and their foreign masters.
- As the U.S. gets sucked ever deeper into its disastrous crusade against
the Muslim world, it may -- possibly with Israel -- attack Iran's nuclear
infrastructure, or invade Syria. An attack on Iran would leave the U.S.
garrison in Iraq trapped amid a sea of hostile Shia -- as well as Sunnis.
- A real, viable peace between Israel and the Palestinians seems unlikely.
Israel's PM Ariel Sharon already has everything he wants, and, according
to U.S. National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, has "wrapped Bush
around his little finger." So why make concessions? Palestinians will
remain trapped in their giant open-air prison.
- Now that Vladimir Putin has crushed all domestic political and business
opposition, his control over Russia is absolute. Only the courageous
Chechen mujahadeen have resisted Putin's restoration of Kremlin autocracy.
Putin is determined to rebuild the old Soviet Union. Watch for him to put
increasing pressure on Ukraine in the wake of last week's election.
The Bush-Putin alliance will strengthen. By regaining state control of
Russia's oil industry, Putin is poised to become a kingpin of world oil,
even an equal to the Saudi royals -- if he can raise enough cash to tap
his nation's vast but remote deposits.
- The European Union, for all its growing pains, economic doldrums, and
bureaucratic obesity, has replaced the United States as the world's
champion of human rights and support for civilized world order.
By contrast, under Bush, the U.S. has become a reactionary power devoted
to protecting the status quo in league with Britain, Russia, China and
India. In short, a re-run of the Holy Alliance of 1815 in which Europe's
autocrats sought to protect their power and privileges, and halt the rise
of bourgeois democracy.
- Look for an increasingly independent-minded Europe and China to draw
closer strategically as a result of the Bush administration's aggressive
policies. Russia will play both sides, backing the U.S. in its
"anti-terror" campaigns, and, discreetly, China, in opposing U.S.
influence in East Asia. European arms may begin to flow to China in 2005.
- Revolution is under way in Saudi Arabia. The U.S.-backed royal family
will be increasingly besieged in 2005. As for U.S. claims it will promote
democracy in the Muslim world, any honest votes there will produce
pro-Islamic parties advocating opposition to Israel, higher oil prices,
and eviction of U.S. influence from the region.
So no true democracy, just U.S.-implemented "guided democracy" in Iraq,
meaning a Vichy regime that keeps U.S. bases, sells oil cheap, makes nice
to Israel, and allows U.S. firms to exploit Iraq's wealth.
K
-- 
Tonibaruch detto il bagarozzo, dopo aver fatto cilecca per l'ennesima volta
si sfogo' su IPI dicendo:
"Ma a voi funziona bene ..." 

 
CUT
A me sembra una analisi molto lucida e concisa. L'unica parte non chiara 
e' quella relativa all'Irak dove l'autore sembra dire che gli USA sono 
condannati ad andarsene, ma alla fine si rimangia quanto detto, dando 
per scontato che resteranno.
Certo non e' una previsione facile, ma gli indici di popolarita' di Bush 
stanno gia' calando, a meno che non si risollevino con gli aiuti Tsunami.
Certo che la sua e' una politica sempre piu' costosa, che produce 
risultati inesistenti...
Infine mi sembra bello che l'opinione Canadese stia con quella Europea.
Pare che in rete stiano addirittura girando dei kit per turisti 
americaniche li fanno assomigliare a dei canadesi all'estero, sebbene 
potrebbe essere una leggenda metropolitana...
Am.

"amalric" <amalric...@REMOVEMEaliceposta.it> wrote in message 
news:amalricTOGLIMI-713...@twister1.tin.it...

Intanto (queste merde ci stanno portando alla rovina totale):
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_4-1-2005_pg7_2
US planes violate Iranian airspace, say reports
TEHRAN: US warplanes flying out of bases in Afghanistan and Iraq have 
committed a string of violations of Iranian airspace, Iranian press reports 
said on Monday.
According to Aftab newspaper, the latest violation came on Saturday when a 
US fighter flew at low altitude over an area in the north-eastern province 
of Khorrasan which borders Afghanistan.
Other press reports said the overflight followed a recent intrusion by F-16 
and F-18 fighters over the southwestern province of Khuzestan which borders 
southern Iraq. Papers said the planes appeared to be spying on nuclear 
sites.
No further details or official confirmation were immediately available.
Last month General Mohammad Salimi, Iranian army chief, said the Iranian 
military led by the air force has been ordered to stand ready to defend the 
country's nuclear sites in case of attack.
Israel and the United States accuse Iran of seeking to develop nuclear 
weapons, leading to speculation over the possibility of military strikes. 
Iran insists its nuclear programme is strictly peaceful. afp
K
-- 
Tonibaruch detto il bagarozzo, dopo aver fatto cilecca per l'ennesima volta
si sfogo' su IPI dicendo:
"Ma a voi funziona bene ..."
Bagarozzo: Il primo genocida  che ha fatto incazzare il proprio DNA .

 sites.
Si, stanno cercando le foto per la prossima conferenza all'ONU. Non di 
Powell, che ne ha avuto abbastanza.
Am.