Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Franco-British Alarm of 1989 Comes True

il ruolo della Germania inizia a preoccupare.... Fra le tante cose 
sottolineo:
 
""Russia too, wants Germany to "take a leadership role in Europe," said 
Sergei Karaganov, head of the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense 
Policy.""
 
Forse non è più solo un problema di moneta unica...
 
----------------------------------------------------
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-07/franco-british-alarm-of-1989-comes-true-as-merkel-drives-eu-crisis-plans.html
 
 
Franco-British Alarm of 1989 Comes True
 
By Leon Mangasarian - Dec 8, 2011 12:01 AM GMT+0100
 
In 1989, France's Francois Mitterrand and Britain's Margaret Thatcher 
maneuvered to block German reunification. Their concerns that the expanded 
nation would prove an irresistible force are now coming to pass.
As Europe's financial crisis intensifies after two years and with 1.1 
trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) of short- and long- term euro-area government 
debt due in 2012, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has forced French 
President Nicolas Sarkozy into retreat and left U.K. Premier David Cameron 
on the sidelines.
Berlin's dominance has shaken the Franco-German equilibrium at the heart of 
the post-World War II balance of power. Debt contagion and slumping growth 
have driven French borrowing costs to a euro-era record against Germany. The 
result may be a remade political map with even Poland, invaded by Adolf 
Hitler in 1939, calling for a stronger German role.
"We are an unwilling leader," Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador 
to Britain and the U.S. and now chairman of the Munich Security Conference, 
said in an interview. "We have been trying for 50 years not to lead. Germany 
will have to grow up now. It's new and there will be a learning curve and 
mistakes will be made."
Merkel is heading into a European Union summit starting tonight in Brussels 
with a debt-crisis blueprint that emphasizes German priorities of more 
forceful policing of budgets and moves toward a fiscal union with a minimal 
role for the European Central Bank. Sarkozy backed it and won concessions to 
water down some German demands, while giving up France's aim to bring the 
ECB to the forefront of the fight.
 
'Rivals or Partners'
"What's right on one side of the Rhine is right on the other side of the 
Rhine," Sarkozy said, referring to the 1,320 kilometer (820 mile) waterway 
that forms much of their border. "History and geography have made France and 
Germany rivals or partners," he said in a Dec. 1 speech in Toulon, France.
The nations fought three wars between 1870 and 1945, and after World War II, 
their leaders pushed European integration to prevent a fourth from ever 
occurring.
The first step in creating today's 27-nation EU was the European Coal and 
Steel Community, set up in 1951 to ensure joint control of the resources of 
war and make armed conflict "materially impossible," according to Robert 
Schuman, the then French foreign minister and an architect of European 
unity.
Yet four decades later, German unification being forged on the Berlin Wall's 
rubble was a bridge too far for Mitterrand and Thatcher, according to a 
previously classified letter describing a Jan. 20, 1990, meeting of the two 
leaders in Paris, written by Thatcher's private secretary, Charles Powell 
and posted on the Margaret Thatcher Foundation's website.
 
Thatcher's 'Problem'
"This would confront us all with a major problem," Thatcher was quoted as 
saying. Mitterrand said West German "agents" were agitating in the east for 
unity and "Germany could if it wished achieve reunification, bring Austria 
into the European Community and even regain other territories which it had 
lost as a result of the war. They might make even more ground than had 
Hitler."
Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who guided the two Germanys to unity, complained in 
his memoirs that Mitterrand played a "double game" on unification and that 
the French leader felt he didn't need to express opposition in the belief 
that Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev would never allow it to happen.
"I didn't realize it at the time: Mitterrand and Margaret Thatcher were 
betting that Gorbachev would never accept a united Germany in NATO," 
according to Kohl's 2009 book, Vom Mauerfall zur Wiedervereinigung (From the 
Fall of the Wall to Reunification). "They totally deluded themselves."
 
Mitterrand's Concerns
Underscoring the intensity of Mitterrand's doubts, the memo quoted him 
saying the prospect of unity had turned Germans into "the 'bad' Germans they 
used to be" and "they were behaving with a certain brutality."
Kohl did agree to give up the deutsche mark over public opposition as France 
sought to contain Germany in a political and monetary straitjacket. The 
Maastricht Treaty, two years after German unity in 1992, mapped the path 
toward monetary union. The euro was established in 1999 and bank notes and 
coins came into circulation in 2002.
Mitterrand opposed the creation of a "mark zone," Hubert Vedrine, his 
spokesman at the time of unification and subsequently foreign minister, said 
in an interview.
German economic growth has picked up steam since 2009, outpacing France. 
Germany, with a population of 82 million compared with France's 65 million, 
expanded 3.6 percent last year compared with France's 1.4 percent.
 
France 'Marginalized'
"One of the most profound consequences of the euro crisis is that France has 
almost been marginalized," Gary Smith, executive director of the American 
Academy in Berlin, said in an interview. "The model of Franco-German balance 
of power has become obsolete and Germany and others have to rethink the EU."
The German ascent has sparked grumbling throughout Europe and revived 
invective in countries such as Greece where some politicians compared German 
demands for austerity to a Nazi past.
"There's a lot of resentment, just look at the swastika caricatures in 
Greece," said Ischinger, who was also a deputy German foreign minister.
Sarkozy has been criticized by political opponents for giving in to Merkel's 
policies. "It's Merkel who decides and Sarkozy who follows," said Francois 
Hollande, the Socialist Party presidential candidate who polls show would 
beat the incumbent in France's May 2012 elections.
Arnaud Montebourg, a Socialist lawmaker, said Merkel's policies were a 
"German diktat in the euro zone."
The hand wringing may be most pronounced in Germany as nationalist sentiment 
seeps into the political mainstream.
 
German Spoken
Merkel's Christian Democratic bloc leader in parliament, Volker Kauder, 
hailed what he said is the new European acceptance of the Chancellor's 
debt-crisis prescriptions.
"All of a sudden, German is being spoken in Europe," Kauder said in a speech 
at a CDU party congress in Leipzig on Nov. 15. "Not the language but in 
accepting the instruments that Angela Merkel fought for so long -- and with 
success."
That sparked a backlash with former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt saying such 
comments fuel doubts on the "reliability" of German policies.
"Damaging German national muscle-flexing" has been a characteristic of the 
Merkel coalition, Schmidt, 92, who led West Germany from 1974 to 1982, said 
in a speech on Dec. 4 to his opposition Social Democratic Party in Berlin.
Still, Merkel, 57, has leaned on Sarkozy, 56, to build bridges, even if he 
is becoming the junior partner.
"We went from Franco-German parity to a German dominance," France's Vedrine 
said. "But this situation is embarrassing Germany a little bit, it is 
seeking therefore the Franco-German couple to shun any finger pointing."
 
Sarkozy 'Frantic'
Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political 
Economy in Brussels, said that Sarkozy is "frantically" seeking to position 
himself as close to Merkel as possible.
"The bond yield spread shows that markets understand what we already knew 
politically: There's no more equality between Berlin and Paris," Erixon said 
in an interview. The terms of Franco-German relations are now dictated by 
Germany.''
The extra yield demanded to lend to AAA rated France for 10 years instead of 
Germany reached 200 basis points on Nov. 17, the widest since 1990. The risk 
premium is now around 110 basis points. French borrowing costs are about a 
full percentage point above the top-rated U.K.
For her part, Merkel, in a speech to parliament in Berlin on Dec. 2, 
rejected claims that Germany is dictating policy.
"It's absurd to say that Germany wants to dominate Europe in any way," 
Merkel said.
 
Export Machine
Concerns of German hegemony come as the nation, the world's second-biggest 
exporter after China, turns away from Europe as a source of growth.
German exports in 2011 will probably rise 12 percent and breach the 1 
trillion euro level for the first time as demand from emerging markets 
offsets waning sales in Europe, the BGA Exporters and Wholesalers said on 
Nov. 29.
Porsche SE's biggest market is the U.S. China, its No. 2, is about to 
overtake sales in America.
In contrast, French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG)'s home market is its 
biggest, with 29 percent of its unit sales in the first half of this year, 
compared with 12 percent in China and none in the U.S.
Bernard de Montferrand, who served as French ambassador to Germany from 2007 
to 2011, said France has lost momentum and "a great share of its 
competitiveness."
 
'Universal Rule'
"Is Germany imposing its discipline on its partners?" Montferrand said in a 
telephone interview. "So be it. Is economic common sense a German product or 
a bad thing? No, it's a universal rule. And European nations, including 
France, had departed from good management."
The sea change from the French stance in the run-up to the 1990 German 
reunification is reflected elsewhere in Europe as geopolitics take a back 
seat to solving the debt crisis. Take Poland, where the German invasion in 
1939 triggered the British and French declaration of war against the Nazis.
As Germany reunified, Poland feared Kohl wouldn't recognize the Oder-Neisse 
Line -- the post-war border between Germany and Poland -- and that Germany 
might make claims on its former territories now part of Poland, including 
Silesia, Pomerania and East Prussia. Kohl confirmed the Oder-Neisse line and 
formally gave up any possibility of such claims in 1990.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has urged Germany to play a bigger 
role in saving the euro.
 
Polish Reversal
"I will probably be the first Polish foreign minister in history to say 
this, but here it is: I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear 
its inactivity," Sikorski said in a Nov. 28 speech in Berlin. "You have 
become Europe's indispensable nation. You may not fail to lead: not 
dominate, but to lead in reform."
Russia too, wants Germany to "take a leadership role in Europe," said Sergei 
Karaganov, head of the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
"Despite our differences with the Europeans, the EU has been the most 
comfortable partner for Russia in its centuries of history," Karaganov said 
in an interview. "Now, unless Germany saves it, we will face a new threat 
from Europe as a factor of instability."
Horst Teltschik, who served as Kohl's deputy chief of staff and helped 
negotiate German unification, agrees.
"All EU states know that Germany is the strongest member in the bloc," he 
said in a telephone interview. "As a German, I would never talk about a 
leadership role in the EU. Everybody knows that. So there's no need to talk 
about being the biggest or the strongest or whatever. Germany just must do 
it." 
 

 Am.
 
l'unico nazionalsocialista qua sei tu...probabilmente Mosley era veramente 
un tuo parente e te ne vergogni...tu non sembri molto meglio in effetti... 
 

 Am.
 
suvvia, non essere ridicolo.... :-) 
 

 Am.
 
invidia...