Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Economia italiana. Una scheda

Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
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+1 (312) 242-1874
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30 March 2006
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Economic Brief: Italy's Weak Economy
Drafted By:
http://www.pinr.com
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (O.E.C.D.) figures
that were published on March 28 in the annual organization's Factbook
confirm that Italy's economy is in a crisis, although the same sources say
Italian companies expect that the situation will improve five years down the
road. As Italy's election campaign has just entered its decisive stage
before the April 9-10 polls, economic matters now occupy the single most
important place in the political debate.
As PINR argued, the present government has proved unable "to perform
significant reforms in its last year before the elections," so that "a
continuation of the country's malaise and poor economic performance" was
inevitable. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Italy"]
Such a framework is reflected by national and international statistics:
G.D.P. figures for the last quarter of 2005 highlight the lack of growth,
coupled by a fall of consumer spending and investments.
Moreover, analysts have pointed out that high inventories may be bad for
output prospects because businesses could end up drawing on stocks to meet
demand at the expense of an output increase.
What is even more worrisome for Italy is that the country lacks good results
in almost every key field to be competitive in the globalized economy,
whereas both Western powers (especially the U.S., the U.K., the Scandinavian
countries, Spain and in part also Germany) and Asian rising stars such as
China, South Korea and India are showing strength.
Areas where Italy is lacking include basic scientific research, innovation
in high-tech, and labor productivity. Also disappointing is the lack of
strategy to reduce the country's alarming energy dependence.
During the election campaign, marked by bitter competition between the
ruling right-of-center majority and its left-of-center challengers,
political leaders have once again evoked foreign countries' policies to
reverse the negative trends.
Two European states seem to have attracted most of the attention by Italian
decision makers: the U.K., whose economy has been flourishing for a long
time under the Labor Party's rule, and Denmark, whose social model is
characterized by labor flexibility and a sophisticated set of welfare-state
rules.
Whereas Italy's political parties' ability to effectively implement what
they propose remains to be tested, it is certain that the next government
will need to act quickly: according to the O.E.C.D.'s study, Rome may be
soon excluded from the G-8 because of the enduring economic crisis. Hence,
if the coming new premiership will enjoy a comfortable win, it will probably
try to immediately launch some of the advocated policies. Since a social
crisis may erupt when liberal-oriented labor rules are actually implemented,
the next government will need to work hard to avoid being destabilized by
predictable harsh criticisms.
Look for the next 12 months as being a time of difficult choices for the new
Italian ruling majority. Should substantial reforms be rapidly introduced,
and a new optimism surface, expect foreign investors to compete for making
the best advantage out of it.

was inevitable. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Italy"]
PINR ha diritto di dire tutte le stronzate che vuole senza che queste
assurgano a qualche particolare valore.
-Stefano