Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Israel asked US for green light to bomb nuclear sites in Iran

Israel asked US for green light to bomb nuclear sites in Iran
US president told Israeli prime minister he would not back attack on Iran, 
senior European diplomatic sources tell Guardian
    * Jonathan Steele
    * 
guardian.co.uk
,
    * Thursday September 25 2008 19.02 BST
    * Article history
nuclear enrichment plant of Natanz in central Iran
A view of the nuclear enrichment plant of Natanz in central Iran. 
Photograph: EPA
Israel gave serious thought this spring to launching a military strike on 
Iran's nuclear sites but was told by President George W Bush that he would 
not support it and did not expect to revise that view for the rest of his 
presidency, senior European diplomatic sources have told the Guardian.
The then prime minister, Ehud Olmert, used the occasion of Bush's trip to 
Israel for the 60th anniversary of the state's founding to raise the issue 
in a one-on-one meeting on May 14, the sources said. "He took it [the 
refusal of a US green light] as where they were at the moment, and that the 
US position was unlikely to change as long as Bush was in office", they 
added.
The sources work for a European head of government who met the Israeli 
leader some time after the Bush visit. Their talks were so sensitive that no 
note-takers attended, but the European leader subsequently divulged to his 
officials the highly sensitive contents of what Olmert had told him of 
Bush's position.
Bush's decision to refuse to offer any support for a strike on Iran appeared 
to be based on two factors, the sources said. One was US concern over Iran's 
likely retaliation, which would probably include a wave of attacks on US 
military and other personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as on shipping 
in the Persian Gulf.
The other was US anxiety that Israel would not succeed in disabling Iran's 
nuclear facilities in a single assault even with the use of dozens of 
aircraft. It could not mount a series of attacks over several days without 
risking full-scale war. So the benefits would not outweigh the costs.
Iran has repeatedly said it would react with force to any attack. Some 
western government analysts believe this could include asking Lebanon's Shia 
movement Hizbollah to strike at the US.
"It's over ten years since Hizbollah's last terror strike outside Israel, 
when it hit an Argentine-Israel association building in Buenos Aires 
[killing 85 people]", said one official. "There is a large Lebanese diaspora 
in Canada which must include some Hizbollah supporters. They could slip into 
the United States and take action".
Even if Israel were to launch an attack on Iran without US approval its 
planes could not reach their targets without the US becoming aware of their 
flightpath and having time to ask them to abandon their mission.
"The shortest route to Natanz lies across Iraq and the US has total control 
of Iraqi airspace", the official said. Natanz, about 100 miles north of 
Isfahan, is the site of an uranium enrichment plant.
In this context Iran would be bound to assume Bush had approved it, even if 
the White House denied fore-knowledge, raising the prospect of an attack 
against the US.
Several high-level Israeli officials have hinted over the last two years 
that Israel might strike Iran's nuclear facilities to prevent them being 
developed to provide sufficient weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear 
bomb. Iran has always denied having such plans.
Olmert himself raised the possibility of an attack at a press conference 
during a visit to London last November, when he said sanctions were not 
enough to block Iran's nuclear programme.
"Economic sanctions are effective. They have an important impact already, 
but they are not sufficient. So there should be more. Up to where? Up until 
Iran will stop its nuclear programme," he said.
The revelation that Olmert was not merely sabre-rattling to try to frighten 
Iran but considered the option seriously enough to discuss it with Bush 
shows how concerned Israeli officials had become.
Bush's refusal to support an attack, and the strong suggestion he would not 
change his mind, is likely to end speculation that Washington might be 
preparing an "October surprise" before the US presidential election. Some 
analysts have argued that Bush would back an Israeli attack in an effort to 
help John McCain's campaign by creating an eve-of-poll security crisis.
Others have said that in the case of an Obama victory, the vice-president, 
Dick Cheney, the main White House hawk, would want to cripple Iran's nuclear 
programme in the dying weeks of Bush's term.
During Saddam Hussein's rule in 1981, Israeli aircraft successfully 
destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osirak shortly before it was due to 
start operating.
Last September they knocked out a buildings complex in northern Syria, which 
US officials later said had been a partly constructed nuclear reactor based 
on a North Korean design. Syria said the building was a military complex but 
had no links to a nuclear programme.
In contrast, Iran's nuclear facilities, which are officially described as 
intended only for civilian purposes, are dispersed around the country and 
some are in fortified bunkers underground.
In public, Bush gave no hint of his view that the military option had to be 
excluded. In a speech to the Knesset the following day he confined himself 
to telling Israel's parliament: "America stands with you in firmly opposing 
Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions. Permitting the world's leading sponsor of 
terror to possess the world's deadliest weapon would be an unforgivable 
betrayal of future generations. For the sake of peace, the world must not 
allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.''
Mark Regev, Olmert's spokesman, tonight reacted to the Guardian's story 
saying: "The need to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is raised 
at every meeting between the prime minister and foreign leaders. Israel 
prefers a diplomatic solution to this issue but all options must remain on 
the table. Your unnamed European source attributed words to the prime 
minister that were not spoken in any working meeting with foreign guests".
Three weeks after Bush's red light, on June 2, Israel mounted a massive air 
exercise covering several hundred miles in the eastern Mediterranean. It 
involved dozens of warplanes, including F-15s, F-16s and aerial refueling 
tankers.
The size and scope of the exercise ensured that the US and other nations in 
the region saw it, said a US official, who estimated the distance was about 
the same as from Israel to Natanz.
A few days later, Israel's deputy prime minister, Shaul Mofaz, told the 
paper Yediot Ahronot: "If Iran continues its programme to develop nuclear 
weapons, we will attack it. The window of opportunity has closed. The 
sanctions are not effective. There will be no alternative but to attack Iran 
in order to stop the Iranian nuclear programme."
The exercise and Mofaz's comments may have been designed to boost the 
Israeli government and military's own morale as well, perhaps, to persuade 
Bush to reconsider his veto. Last week Mofaz narrowly lost a primary within 
the ruling Kadima party to become Israel's next prime minister. Tzipi Livni, 
who won the contest, takes a less hawkish position.
The US announced two weeks ago that it would sell Israel 1,000 
bunker-busting bombs. The move was interpreted by some analysts as a 
consolation prize for Israel after Bush told Olmert of his opposition to an 
attack on Iran. But it could also enhance Israel's attack options in case 
the next US president revives the military option.
The guided bomb unit-39 (GBU-39) has a penetration capacity equivalent to a 
one-tonne bomb. Israel already has some bunker-busters. 

il governo di Israele non perde mai occasione di fare il guerrafondaio.
outis ha scritto:
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