Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Dal Bric al Bic?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/18/business/worldbusiness/18oligarch.html
Empires Built on Debt Start to Crumble
By ANDREW E. KRAMER - Oct 17, 2008
MOSCOW - Are the Russian oligarchs going bust?
In the current global financial crisis,
perhaps no community of the superaffluent
has fallen as hard, or as fast, as the brash
Kremlin-connected insiders whose wealth was
tied up in the overlapping bubbles of the
Russian stock market, commodity prices and
easy credit.
Already, Russia's richest man, Oleg V.
Deripaska, the nuclear physicist turned
post-Soviet corporate raider, has ceded more
than a billion dollars in assets to jittery
creditors as his aluminum-to-automobile
empire reels.
"Half the Russians could fall off the
Forbes list" by next year, Maxim V.
Kashulinsky, the editor of the Russian
edition of the magazine, said in an interview.
Those most in favor with the Kremlin - who
expanded fastest & ran up the largest debts -
are most at risk now as borrowing costs soar.
Most of the ultrawealthy have large stakes
in the mining and petroleum behemoths of the
Russian economy, stakes gained through the
legally questionable privatizations of the
1990s. A decade later, company ownership has
still not spread to a broad shareholder base
as in the West. Without a broad base of
potential customers, the stock market here
has tanked even faster than exchanges in the
United States.
In America, toxic mortgage-backed securities
sank mighty investment banks. In Russia, it
is the empires of the oligarchs and the loans
they took out from Western banks, using shares
in their companies as collateral, that are at
risk.
In a number of cases the value of shares
pledged by Russia's rich has fallen below
the value of the loans, an ominous sign for
the market here, where the benchmark RTS index
is already down 71 percent from its peak in May.
Western banks are not immune. Their exposure
to oligarch debt came into focus last week
when the Russian central bank reported that,
all told, Russian companies have to repay
$47.5 billion to foreign creditors by the end
of this year, & $160 billion by the end of 2009.
If banks require businesses to sell shares to
repay these loans, "the Russian stock market
could come down like a house of cards," Michael
Kavanagh, a mining sector analyst at Uralsib
bank, said.
"This could be a game changer for a lot of
very, very large players," Rory MacFarquhar,
an economist at Goldman Sachs in Moscow,
added. "The ground is shifting under them."
Not all of Russia's rich are hurting. Their
yachts, jets and London mansions are not yet
up for sale. For instance, Roman Abramovich,
the owner of the Chelsea Football Club in
London, hasn't sold his 377ft yacht, Pelorus.
Or the 282ft Ecstasea, his other yacht.
In the 1998 financial crisis, ordinary
Russians lost savings in a devaluation of
the ruble. This time is different. The wide
middle class that emerged under the former
president and now prime minister, Vladimir
Putin, and the oil boom has yet to feel the
financial turmoil, because few own stocks.
That could change depending on how badly
the economy is hurt by falling commodity
prices and the flight of an estimated $74
billion in foreign investment since Aug. 1.
Estimates of the oligarch's losses are
necessarily rough. Bloomberg calculated
the richest 25 Russians on the Forbes list
lost a collective $230 billion since the
market peak, based on declines in value of
publicly traded companies and analysts'
estimates of private company losses. That
would make their collective loss over five
months four times greater than the total
wealth of Warren E. Buffett.
The oligarchs' remaining assets, based on
this estimate, would be worth about $140
billion.
In a more narrow sampling, Forbes magazine
on Sept. 22 estimated that the loss for
10 oligarchs whose wealth was primarily
in public companies totaled $42.75 billion,
or 34.1 percent of their estimated worth
on Jan. 1.
Vladimir S. Lisin, the steel magnate, led
the list with a loss of $11.21 billion on
declining share value at his company,
Novolipetsk Steel.
Spokesmen for Deripaska and Abramovich
brushed off estimates based on gyrating
stock prices as misleading, noting that
the paper gains at the market peak were
just as provisional as the losses today.
But the Moscow office of UniCredit, the
Italian bank, said Mr. Deripaska; Mikhail
Fridman, a partner in a conglomerate with
telecoms, oil assets and grocery stores;
and Vladimir P. Yevtushenkov, who owns a
cellphone company, real estate and retail
businesses, are at risk from overstretched
credit backed by tumbling shares.
UniCredit, with liquidity problems of its
own, has turned to Libyan gov't investors
for a cash infusion.
Mr. Deripaska, who, like Mr. Abramovich,
was an orphan and a driven young man,
achieved unimaginable wealth in the chaos
of the immediate post-Soviet period,
seizing on the windfall profits of the
commodity boom to begin a global expansion.
He built his empire on debt.
Mr. Deripaska and Mr. Lisin, the steel
tycoon, are seeking bailout loans from
the state for an undetermined amount.
The government has set aside $50 billion
from its rainy day fund, made up of oil
revenue, to aid struggling businesses.
The rules under Mr. Putin as understood
by all players after the incarceration
of Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky in 2003,
suggest a strict quid pro quo of gov't
largess in exchange for fealty and
payments to Kremlin pet projects.
Mr. Deripaska has been on both ends.
In 2007, the owner of Russneft, one of
the country's largest private oil co.'s,
said he would sell his business to Mr.
Deripaska, seen as closer to authorities,
but added in an open letter that the sale
was not voluntary. "They made an offer
to leave the oil business," the owner,
Mikhail S. Gutseriev, said. "To make me
more amenable, they tightened the screws."
Mr. Gutseriev fled into exile and is
believed to be living in London.
Expansion of his empire, however, put
Mr. Deripaska at risk now that markets
are falling.
Last month, Mr. Deripaska shed his
investment in Magna International, the
Canadian auto parts maker, to a bank that
financed the $1.54 billion purchase. Mr.
Deripaska's conglomerate, Basic Element,
said it did not have a liquidity crisis
but sold the stake to finance other projects.
Last week, Mr. Deripaska divested himself
of his 9.9 percent stake in the German
construction co. Hochtief. He refinanced
his holding in Strabag, an Austrian
construction company, through a 500-billion-
euro loan from Raiffeisen Bank, staving off
a possible seizure by Deutsche Bank.
"This is global," said one Moscow banker
of the crisis, who did not want his name
used in remarks critical of the business
practices of his Russian clients. "Home
rules don't apply."
In April, Mr. Deripaska bought a 25% stake
in Norilsk Nickel, a once-coveted company
whose stock has turned poisonous for the
Russian oligarchy. Norilsk stock tumbled
on falling nickel prices and rumors that
the owners were dumping shares to repay
loans.
In the latest sign unlikely to help build
investor trust in Russian corporations,
some rich Russians have apparently taken
to using their board control of publicly
traded companies to siphon off money to
bail out unrelated personal projects.
For instance, Sibir Energy, a Siberian
oil company, spent $274 million on a
Moscow hotel this week. The seller? The
oligarch Shalva Chigirinsky, who is also
the principal Russian shareholder in Sibir.
Similarly, Norilsk has bought 25 percent
of a natural gas field owned by a Norilsk
shareholder, Vladimir O. Potanin, the
metals and mining oligarch.
In a deal typical of the high-wire finance
of the oligarchy in the boom, for his stake
in Norilsk, Mr. Deripaska paid $8.5 billion
in shares in his aluminum company and $4.5
billion in cash, drawn on credit from
Western banks, including Goldman Sachs
and Morgan Stanley. The stake in Norilsk
is worth about $2.34 billion today, less
than the loan amount.
Konstantin A. Panin, a spokesman for Basic
Element, said the company's diversity would
help it pull through the financial crisis
and swooning commodity prices. "There are,
however, no companies that have not been
affected by the global crisis," he said.
"We believe that this crisis will only make
us stronger, because we know how to stay
competitive and will be there for our
partners and customers when everything
settles down."
Until that happens, the Moscow business
elite are on edge.
Just last week, they gathered for an
anticrisis pep talk from a man who knows:
Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor.
As waiters drifted silently about,
balancing trays of caviar canapés, a string
quartet played Tchaikovsky and bankers
traded market collapse rumors.
The evening was sponsored by Mr. Fridman's
Alfa-Bank to honor Intel with a foreign
investors award. Mr. Giuliani suggested
that Russia & the U.S. cooperate on
financial stabilization, despite their
differences. "We don't want it to affect
the bottom line," he said. Meanwhile, a
banker eyed the passing caviar trays and
with a sigh lamented he had not brought
a carry-out bag. (The Alfa Group partners
have lost at least $12.1 billion, Bloomberg
News estimates.)
Not all of the Moscow business world is
worrying about tomorrow's meal, however.
Mikhail D. Prokhorov, the youthful mining
tycoon, seemed washed up earlier this year
after selling his shares in Norilsk to Mr.
Deripaska. Now, he is sitting on $4.5 bil.
from a syndicated loan from Goldman Sachs,
Morgan Stanley and other Western banks.
Speculation has swirled about how Mr.
Prokhorov might occupy his early retirement
after the Norilsk sale. One pet project is
a lifestyle magazine for the Russian rich,
titled Snob.
On the cover of the October issue is a
man crumbled on the floor, covering his
face with his hands, as if in sorrow.

 Am.
ieri sera mi è capitato di vedere un pezzetto di uno speciale del Tg4 
dedicato alla visita di Berlusconi a Washington in occasione del Columbus 
Day.
Si sa come vanno questi speciali di Fede. Un'altra Berlusconeide dove 
sembrava che il vero presidente degli Stati Uniti non fosse Bush ma 
Berlusconi stesso... ;-))
A parte questo era ospite anche Luttwak il quale, quando si è messo a 
parlare male di Putin, è stato subito ripreso da Fede dicendogli che faceva 
delle affermazioni troppo forti e ricordandogli che in quella trasmissione 
si doveva parlare solo della visita di Berlusconi da Bush.
A parte il carattere grottesco della situazione si capisce bene che " 
l'amicizia " con Putin di Berlusconi rimanga una delle priorità del nostro 
"bifronte" presidente del consiglio il quale, come Persio :-), a suo tempo 
deve aver "consigliato" a non pochi investitori di tentare l'avventura russa 
in modo da compiacere l'amico Putin. La stessa cosa che è avvenuta per l'ENI 
di cui, ricordiamolo, è comunque azionista di riferimento il Tesoro...
Ora puodarsi che oltre all'amico Putin sia saltato fuori pure l'amico 
Ghedaffi. Dato lo scenario internazionale però è molto più "desiderabile" 
quest'ultimo...per ragioni di ordine politico, strategico e geografico. 
Sperando che non ricambi bandiera pure lui...in fin dei conti non c'è molto 
da fidarsi di Ghedaffi.

 Am.
si traduce "cerchiobottismo" :-) 

 "bifronte" presidente del consiglio
Secondo me Berlusconi fa bene a coltivare l'amicizia con Putin. Se la
crisi economica poco poco peggiora e per dar retta a Tremonti iniziano i
licenziamenti nell'amministrazione pubblica, non vedo tanto peregrina
l'immagine della fuga di Berlusconi dall'Italia per evitare di fare la
stessa fine a piazzale Loreto che fece il suo modello. Hammamet
sembrerebbe la sua destinazione naturale, se non fosse che la politica
filoisraeliana ed antiaraba gli sconsiglierà il trasferimento in paese
islamico. Berlusconi lo vedrei bene pensionato a Yalta, nel frattempo
annessa con tutta la Crimea (se non tutta l'Ucraina) alla Russia. 
Fra l'altro sarebbe una curiosa imitazione di Togliatti che tutto
sommato gli andrebbe a pennello.
-- 
Luca Logi - Firenze - Italy        e-mail: 
ll...@dada.it
   Home page: 
http://www.angelfire.com/ar/archivarius
                   (musicologia pratica)

 Fra l'altro sarebbe una curiosa imitazione di Togliatti
Logi, un dire bischerate. Togliatti non  è morto pensionato a  Yalta,
fino all'ultimo ha pensato a fare grande il Partito.

 sommato gli andrebbe a pennello.
è un tuo personale auspicio o cosa? 

fino all'ultimo ha pensato a fare grande il Partito.
vedo però che il vizietto della boiata facile non ti è ancora andato via del 
tutto...
Togliatti è stato un criminale...Punto. 

 Togliatti è stato un criminale...Punto.
per i fascisti come te, senza dubbio. Ma questo è un titolo di merito.

per i fascisti come te, senza dubbio. Ma questo è un titolo di merito.
attento che Putin legge....