Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: brutte notizie per gli amanti della catastrofe demografica

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1982
 
 
The Westernization of Muslim demographics
Yoram Ettinger
 
 
The dramatic Westernization of Muslim demographics defies conventional
wisdom. It requires the re-evaluation of economic, social and national
security assumptions and the re-assessment of related policy.
For example, the fertility rate among young Arabs in Judea and Samaria
— at an average of three births per woman — has converged with the
respective fertility rates of young Israeli Arabs and Jews, while
(mostly secular) Jewish fertility rates are currently trending upwards
and Arab fertility rates are trending downwards.
The Arab fertility rate in Judea and Samaria is declining at an
accelerated pace as a result of modernity: urbanization (70 percent
rural in 1967 vs. 75% urban in 2012), increased education, especially
among women (most of whom complete high school and increasingly attend
community colleges), enhanced career mentality and growing integration
into the workforce among women (reproduction starts later and ends
earlier), all-time high median wedding age and divorce rate, minimal
teen pregnancy (common in 1967 but rare in 2012), family planning and
secularization.
David Goldman (“Spengler”) writes in his book "How Civilizations Die"
that “as Muslim fertility shrinks at a rate demographers have never
seen before, it is converging on Europe’s low fertility. … Iranian
women in their 20s, who grew up with five or six siblings, will bear
only one or two children during their lifetimes. ... By the middle of
this century, the belt of Muslim countries from Morocco to Iran will
become as gray as depopulating Europe."
“Demographers have identified several different factors associated
with population decline: urbanization, education and literacy. ...
Children in traditional societies had an economic value, as
agricultural labor and as providers for elderly parents; urbanization
and pension systems turned children into a cost rather than a source
of income…. Dozens of new studies document the link between religious
belief and fertility. ... [An] Iranian 25-year-old’s mother married in
her teens and had several children by her mid-twenties. Her daughter
has postponed family formation, or foregone it altogether, and spent
her most fertile years on education and work. ... World fertility has
fallen by about two children per woman in the past half century — from
about 4.5 children per woman to about 2.5. Fertility in the Muslim
world has fallen two or three times faster than the world average...
Across the entire Muslim world, university-educated Muslim women bear
children at the same rate as their infecund European counterparts. ...
The only Muslim countries where women still give birth to seven or
eight children are the poorest and least literate: Mali, Niger,
Somalia and Afghanistan. ... Iran’s secular government under the late
Shah put enormous efforts into education during the 1970s and
1980s. ... Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution slowed but could
not stop the literacy movement.”
Director of the UN Population Division Hania Zlotnik argued that “In
most of the Islamic world it’s amazing, the decline in fertility that
has happened.” Eight of the 15 countries that experienced the biggest
drop in population growth since 1980 are in the Middle East.
David Goldman (“Spengler”) states that “the only advanced country
[other than the U.S.] to sustain high fertility rates is Israel...”
He criticizes Israeli leaders who based their policy on erroneous
demographic assumptions: “Israeli concessions in the first decade of
the 21st century [Rabin’s Oslo, Sharon’s uprooting of Jewish
communities in Gaza and Olmert’s unprecedented proposed concessions]
were motivated by fear that Arab fecundity would swamp Israel’s Jewish
population. In actuality, quite the opposite was occurring..."
In fact, the Jewish fertility rate in Israel in 2012 — three births
per woman — is higher than all Arab countries, other than Sudan,
Yemen, Iraq and Jordan, which are trending downward. The average
Israeli-born Jewish mother exceeds three births. Moreover, Israel’s
robust demography yields uniquely promising economic, social,
technological and national security ramifications.
According to Goldman, “Israel will have more young people than Italy
or Spain, and as many as Germany, by the end of the century, if
fertility remains unchanged. A century and a half after the Holocaust,
the Jewish State will have more military-age men, and will be able to
field a larger land army, than Germany.”
Israel’s rising (especially secular) Jewish fertility rate is in
direct correlation to its relatively high-level optimism, collective
responsibility, generational continuity (roots and future),
patriotism, tradition, faith and value-driven education. Israel’s
demographic tailwind is even more powerful, when considering the
potential of 500,000 Olim during the next ten years.
The demographic, economic, military and diplomatic resources at the
disposal of Israel in 2012 are dramatically superior to those
available to Herzl in 1900, Ben-Gurion in 1948 and Shamir in 1992.
Anyone suggesting that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of
the Jordan River, that there is a demographic machete at the throat of
the Jewish state and that the Jewish state must concede Jewish
geography in order to secure Jewish demography, is either grossly
mistaken or outrageously misleading!

 
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1982
 
 
Emmanuel Todd sono 20 anni che scrive che il mondo musulmano si sta
laicizzando de facto, con in cima gli iraniani che fanno meno figli
degli yankee. E con buona pace dell'articolista, fare pià figli non è
MAI  un buon segno.