Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Altre cause per l'ottimismo

http://dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_id=78096
Israel's dominance may be going into slow reversal
By Rami G. Khouri
Daily Star staff
Saturday, December 30, 2006
By most measures, it would seem the Israelis are winning the
Palestinian-Israeli war. They control and colonize Arab lands, enjoy
military superiority and total American support, and unilaterally
define most diplomatic parameters of the conflict. Yet this may be a
mistaken assessment: The Palestinians and Arabs are perhaps starting to
win some battles, while Israel is losing some of its dominance. Seven
events in the past five months seem to lend credence to this view.
The first was Hizbullah's ability to fight Israel for 34 days this
summer, and on the 34th day to keep firing hundreds of rockets into
Israeli territory. Morality and political consequences aside, this
reflected a truly historic combination of political will, technical
military proficiency, and a capacity to remain shielded from Israeli,
Western and Arab spies and infiltrators. No Arab party had ever crossed
this threshold in the century-long conflict with Zionism and Israel.
The second event was Israel's (and Washington's) having to accept the
August cease-fire resolution at the United Nations, after the United
States had given Israel weeks of extra warfare to hit Hizbullah. A
determined Arab group forced Israel and the US to accept a political
resolution instead of military victory, and the cease-fire resolution
included measures that Israel had previously always rejected -
addressing the occupied Shebaa Farms area in the context of the
Israel-Lebanon conflict, rather than as occupied Syrian land, and
specifying the return or exchange of Israeli and Lebanese prisoners.
Israel quietly dropped its previous position that the two Israeli
soldiers snatched by Hizbullah on July 12 had to be returned
unconditionally. The stationing of over 20,000 Lebanese and
international troops in Southern Lebanon has long been an Israeli
demand, but also came at a price: limiting Israel's scope of action in
Lebanon and its overflights.
The third noteworthy development was Israel's accepting a cease-fire
with the Palestinians in Gaza in late November, after it had said that
it would not end its attacks and would do anything required to retrieve
Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, whom Palestinian guerrillas had snatched
from an Israeli Army post on the Gaza-Israel border. The juxtaposition
of events in Lebanon and Gaza this summer was powerfully telling.
Israel's once vaunted military prowess and frightening deterrence
failed to stop Lebanese and Palestinian fighters from abducting three
of its soldiers from border areas. Israel's subsequent severe, savage
military attacks and mass punishment of civilian populations failed to
make the Arabs cough up the soldiers. Weeks or months later, Israel
swallowed its words, put away its ultimatums and threats, and accepted
cease-fires in both cases.
The fourth important recent development is that Israel has been unable
to stop the firing of rudimentary Qassam rockets into its southern
region by Palestinian militants. Israeli military might and
intelligence capabilities - along with killing some 400 Palestinians
since June - have not stopped determined young men from firing these
rockets into Israel.
The fifth striking incident occurred in early November, when Israel had
pinned down a group of Palestinian fighters in a mosque in Beit Hanun
in northern Gaza, expecting them to surrender or be killed. Instead,
over 200 Palestinian women broke through the siege, swarmed the mosque,
and provided cover for the young fighters to escape, with two women
being killed and a dozen injured. Battle lines that had been defined by
Israeli troops fighting a handful of Palestinian youths were
transformed into the Israeli Army's finding itself helpless - and
defeated - in the face of the Palestinian civilian population.
The sixth incident happened in mid-November, when the Israeli Army
telephoned the home of a Palestinian militant in Jabaliya refugee camp
in Gaza and warned the inhabitants to leave the three-story residential
building because it was going to be destroyed. Instead of fleeing as
they had usually done, hundreds of civilians swarmed into the
residence, stood on the rooftop, and dared the Israelis to kill them
all. Faced with civilians who no longer feared death, the mighty
Israeli killing machine and its befuddled political leaders suddenly
became much less impressive - for they had lost much of their capacity
to intimidate.
The seventh incident, earlier this week, was Israeli Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert's meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, where
it was announced that Israel would release $100 million of withheld
Palestinian tax revenues and remove some checkpoints in the West Bank.
Reversing his previous refusal to make such gestures or meet with the
Palestinians before Shalit was released, Olmert met, talked and made
concessions to the Palestinians with Shalit nowhere in sight.
History will clarify if these events indeed signify a change in the
military or political balance of power in Arab-Israeli confrontations.
We must hope for now that the trend these events signify will open the
eyes and brains of Arab and Israeli leaders who have relied mainly on
military force to achieve their goals, and instead propel them toward
negotiations as a more effective and humane route to achieving their
rights, and living a normal life in peace, security and mutual
recognition.
Rami G. Khouri writes a regular commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

 By Rami G. Khouri
*ROTFL*
Bel coacervo di ca***te :)
-Stefano