Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: The Arab-Israeli conflict is over

The Arab-Israeli conflict is over
By Barry Rubin,
Citizen Special January 2, 2009
In decades to come, when the Middle East's history for this era is
written, the current war in Gaza will be deemed a skirmish in the
great Arab-Persian; Sunni-Shia; Arab nationalist-Islamist; Iran-Syria
versus Egypt-Saudi Arabia conflict that is going to be the region's --
and perhaps world's -- main feature for the rest of our lifetimes.
The Arab-Israeli conflict, as it existed from 1948 to the late 1980s
or thereafter, is over. Whatever they say in public, all the Arab
states except for Syria have basically withdrawn from active
participation. Indeed, strong statements in speeches and media have
long been a substitute for action. Egypt, Jordan and the PLO signed
peace agreements with Israel, which may not have yielded warm
relations but certainly ended their direct involvement in any
conflict. The Persian Gulf and North-African Arab states are just not
focused on it.
Why has this happened? There are basically four reasons why the Middle
East today is totally different from that of the previous period.
First, almost all the Arab states -- Syria being the exception --
concluded that they could not defeat and destroy Israel. This came
about both due to the experience of war and the collapse of the Soviet
bloc, their main ally in the conflict. To stir people's passions over
an unwinnable conflict is profitable for rulers -- to distract them
from their own dictatorial government -- but defeat by Israel could
bring down the regimes. Even Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein turned
toward trying to dominate the Persian Gulf rather than fight Israel.
Second, the Arab states have became preoccupied with other problems.
Those with oil -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates --
focus on making money and enjoying the good life. Those without --
Egypt, Jordan, Morocco -- strive to survive. Both groups need good
relations with the West: the poor to get aid, the rich for markets and
safe places to invest.
Third, they concluded the Palestinians were incapable of defeating
Israel militarily or making peace with Israel diplomatically. Once the
PLO signed an agreement with Israel in 1993, intended to produce a
political settlement, Arab states were freed from their obligations.
They didn't even give the Palestinians much economic aid, most such
help coming from the West. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat was quite
unpopular in the Arab world, being viewed as corrupt and
untrustworthy. His successors were seen as weak. Why, they asked,
should Arab rulers let Arafat and the PLO determine their policy?
Fourth, the Arab world is beset by a new conflict which takes up much
of its attention and resources: the radical Islamist challenge to Arab
nationalist regimes. In every country, the conflict is waged,
sometimes violently, at other times through propaganda battles and
electoral manoeuvres. The Palestinians, too, fought among themselves
along these lines. After winning an election victory and then making a
deal for a coalition government, Hamas turned on its nationalist
rivals and drove them out of Gaza by force.
Every Arab state is battling Hamas's friends inside its own borders.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah Shia Islamists bully Sunni Muslim, Christian and
Druze rivals. Bloody civil wars between Islamists and nationalists
erupted in Algeria and Egypt; terrorist campaigns swept Saudi Arabia
and Iraq.
Finally, the Arab states face a powerful Iranian-Syrian axis whose
clients include Hezbollah, Hamas and Iraqi insurgents. This is a
danger far exceeding the largely fabricated one from Israel, and Arab
rulers know it. In response to the Hamas attacks on Israel, Tariq
Alhomayed, editor-in-chief of Saudi newspaper, Al-Sharq al-Awsat,
proclaimed that Hamas is the tool of Iran and "Iran is a real threat
to Arab security, as today it launched a war against Egypt, tomorrow
against Saudi Arabia, and then the whole house of cards will
collapse."
That is how the current fighting is being viewed in the leading
circles of the Arab world, not as an Arab-Israeli struggle but as part
of the Islamist-nationalist conflict. Hamas and Hezbollah, Egyptian
Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit proclaimed, are at war with Egypt and
want to bring war and chaos to Egypt as they have in their own
countries.
Hamas and its allies see the issue in similar terms. Why, asked deputy
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem according to one translation, "is Gaza
besieged? Because the people of Gaza and Palestine have rejected the
humiliating political options, and have chosen the proud political
option of jihad -- the option of resistance."
What does this really mean? To accept "humiliating political options"
signifies a compromise peace which would gain a Palestinian state in
exchange for accepting Israel's existence. It also means getting along
with the West rather than fighting against it.
"Resistance" is a favourite code word coined by Syria's regime for a
program of battling for decades, sacrificing many thousand lives,
using terrorism, fighting wars, and staying intransigent until final,
total victory is achieved. The goal is to destroy Israel, expel
western influence from the Middle East, and make every regime a
radical Islamist dictatorship.
Aside from the catastrophic cost and bloody defeat that this strategy
entails, Mr. Qassem is leaving out a lot more. The Palestinian
Authority-ruled West Bank isn't besieged, it's prospering. There's no
fighting because the nationalists there don't glorify the sacrifice of
everything to carry out an ultimately losing jihad.
Inasmuch as the West rescues Hamas from its own mistakes, the result
will be strengthening radical forces throughout the region,
demoralizing moderates, and ensuring even more violence and suffering
in the future. Vladimir Lenin, leader of the previous big
revolutionary movement, Communism, predicted that democratic states
would sell their enemies the rope that would be used to hang
themselves. Radical Islamists are counting on it. Relatively moderate
Arab nationalists fear it. Israel is fighting to prevent it.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/story_print.html?id=1133234&sponsor
---
"ho utilizzato la parola "secco" solo 27 volte"  (Luca Logi /
rodewalder)
cfr 
http://raionim.blogspot.com/2008/12/luca-logi-e-i-piselli.html

 By Barry Rubin,
Vale sempre la pena di leggere Barry Rubin.
Grazie.
Tb