Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: La resistenza di Hezbollah sta distruggendo le dittature Arabe

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080301258.html
The moderate pro-Western Arabs understand this very clearly. Which is
why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan immediately came out against
Hezbollah and privately urged the United States to let Israel take down
that organization. They know that Hezbollah is fighting Iran's proxy
war not only against Israel but also against them and, more generally,
against the United States and the West.
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A volte, per sbaglio, anche i propagandisti Neocon dicono la verita',
almeno se ci si abitua alla retorica
Orwelliana
(le dittature corrotte dell'Egitto, Giordania e Arabia saudita
ribattezzate "moderate pro-Wester Arabs".
Dagli stessi che plaudono a Bush che vuole "esportare la democrazia).
La resistenza di Hezbollah, un partito NON particolarmente corrotto e
con un vero sostegno popolare sta mettendo i regimi Arabi molto piu' in
pericolo di quando non faccia Israele.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1836809,00.html
Arab despots, not Israel, are now under a greater threat
Hizbullah's resistance to the region's military superpower will cause
tremors in Egypt and Jordan - and even Syria
Jonathan Steele in Tyre
Friday August 4, 2006
The Guardian
Unlike good children, Israel's drones are heard but not seen.
Officially called unmanned aerial vehicles, these "eyes in the sky"
circle south Lebanon day and night. Between six and 12 feet long, they
are little more than cameras and a motor.
They usually fly too high to be spotted, but they make a noise so loud
you cannot forget it, like a swarm of wasps on a summer afternoon.
Their engines give the impression of being souped up, both as a warning
to any Hizbullah rocket-launcher that Big Brother has you in his sights
but also as a device to intimidate and madden an entire population -
what torturers call "white noise".
Article continues
Glued to the monitors that display live pictures from these irritating
machines, Israel's targeteers behold a fearsome picture. Whether it
touches their consciences I do not know, but what unfolds before them
is a tableau of massive devastation. Forget, for a moment, the columns
of cars with refugees streaming north. Ignore, if you will, the corpses
rotting in the open. Just concentrate on the physical inventory - roads
disfigured by bomb craters, towns made uninhabitable, shopping parades
gutted, houses collapsed like souffles gone horribly wrong.
For two days this week Israel offered a "humanitarian" pause. Anyone
foolish enough not to have heeded earlier warnings to leave the area
would have a last chance to do so. Taking advantage of this kind truce,
reporters poured into the villages as shellshocked people emerged from
basements to search frantically for transport out of the area.
South Lebanon is classic diaspora country. Its economy no longer
depends on local agriculture. Many of its houses are designed to
impress, with ornate curved balconies and Grecian pillars. A large
number were still half-built when the Israeli onslaught struck. They
speak of money sent back by emigrants who started to make fortunes in
business in west Africa almost a hundred years ago.
Lebanon's 14-year civil war, which began in 1976, sent new waves of
people to Australia, western Europe and North America, and they
invested in these homes that advertised success. No wonder so many
Lebanese were here this summer, as parents brought children to get to
know cousins and grandparents. They truly had holidays from hell - not
the tabloid version, cruise ships with blocked toilets or shoddy Costa
villas adjacent to construction sites. Families from Montreal, Malmo or
Melbourne suddenly found themselves under a relentless rain of bombs,
quaking in terror in underground shelters and wondering if their sanity
would last as long as their food.
Now these people are dead or fled. The area has been emptied. The
nearer to the Israeli border, the heavier the damage. In towns and
villages such as Bint Jbeil, Ainata and Aitaroun scarcely any building
is intact. In the West Bank and Gaza, Israel has been regularly
criticised for demolishing the houses of suicide bombers to punish
their families. In south Lebanon it has been conducting house
demolition and collective punishment on a gargantuan scale.
Whether or not Israeli forces seek to occupy a strip of this territory
north of the Israeli border over the coming days, they have already
made it impossible for Lebanese to live in it for years to come. That
much is certain, even though other consequences of this invasion are
still shrouded in the fog of peace.
Hizbullah will emerge stronger in the Lebanese balance of political
force, but not overwhelmingly so, and perhaps only for a short time.
Tyre, for example, is run by Hizbullah's forerunner, the Amal party. In
the 2004 election Hizbullah took 15% of the vote compared to Amal's
75%. Its military success in getting Israel to end its previous
occupation in 2000 did not transfer to the ballot box. In the Tyre
region 39 villages are Amal and 17 Hizbullah.
Hizbullah's fierce resistance to Israeli ground troops has won it new
admirers across the Lebanese spectrum, but in the villages civilians
saw little evidence of Hizbullah helping the displaced. As families
with children and old people struggled across rubble to flee this week,
Hizbullah's able-bodied young cadres did not assist the evacuation,
though they could be seen standing about in wary groups in the less
ruined towns.
In the wider Arab world this is irrelevant detail. Hizbullah is already
the hero, a desperately longed-for proof of success. However this war
ends, Israel's image of invincibility has gone. Of course, the same was
said in October 1973 in the hours after Egyptian troops crossed the
Suez canal, surprising the Israeli army. Days later, Israel regained
the upper hand.
No such tide-turning will happen this time. Even if Israel were to kill
or capture Hizbullah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and destroy
every Hizbullah rocket store, Hizbullah has won by holding out for
three weeks and inflicting serious disruption and pain on Israel.
Can Hizbullah's victory in Lebanon be the harbinger of other Arab
victories to come? Unlikely. South Lebanon is rolling guerrilla
country, primed for ambushes. The cramped urban slums of Gaza are no
match. The West Bank is more like Lebanon, but Israel's control over
the import of weaponry as well as the presence of hundreds of thousands
of determined settler-occupiers give Palestinians only one military
option, a slow and costly war of attrition. Negotiations are a better
way.
Hizbullah's victory may do less damage to Israel than to other Arab
regimes. The success of a Shia insurgency will encourage other Shias
around the region, including those in Saudi Arabia. To the
consternation of his American protectors, Iraq's Shia prime minister,
Nuri al- Maliki, did not condemn Hizbullah. But the Sunni/Shia issue
should not be exaggerated. Hizbullah's appeal across the Arab world is
a wider matter of Islamism and the struggle against corrupt despotism.
Egypt and, to a lesser extent, Jordan - and even in the medium term
Syria, which has backed and armed Hizbullah - will feel the shockwaves
running through the Arab street.
Those who argue from their pulpits in the mosques that secular
modernity inevitably means decadence and selfishness will have gained
new followers. Those who say that only Islam can provide the pride and
backbone needed to confront the west's cultural and military
interventions will be stronger.
Israel's Lebanese adventure, and the Bush/Blair folly in supporting it,
have done the west damage that will last for many, many years.

 have done the west damage that will last for many, many years.
L'analisi mi pare sensata. In questo senso, c'è un'analogia con l'Iraq. Bin
Laden deve ringraziare Bush e HA deve ringraziare IL. Gli sparano addosso,
è vero, ma senza mai distruggerli, e anzi legittimandone l'esistenza.