Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: For Israel, chaos is ultimately a good thing.

Chaos is the new 'status quo' in the Middle East
 
For Israel, chaos is ultimately a good thing. It means that the
Islamists and other hostile forces will be too distracted by
infighting to focus any attention on fighting Israel.
 
By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
 
One year after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as president of Egypt,
what conclusions can we draw regarding the ongoing wave of unrest in
the Middle East and North Africa?
 
Around this time last year at the Herzliya Conference, the Israeli
historian Prof. Martin Kramer lambasted the Obama administration for
taking the view that the "status quo" in the region was no longer
sustainable, and even went so far as to accuse the U.S. government of
"throwing Mubarak under the bus."
 
Yet Kramer's critique was off the mark even then, for the fact is that
the "status quo" - that is, the apparently stable order imposed by
strongmen that prevailed in the Middle East and North Africa prior to
the outbreak of the so-called "Arab Spring" - was never sustainable.
The unrest that has come upon and now characterizes the region can be
compared to a tidal wave: It is simply unstoppable.
 
The United States could no more have saved Mubarak than President
Nicolas Sarkozy could have saved the former Tunisian dictator Zine el-
Abidine Ben Ali, whom the French government was eager to see retain
power even as mass protests erupted in Tunisia. By promulgating the
notion that the Obama administration threw Mubarak "under the bus,"
Kramer was inadvertently echoing the thoughts and intellectual legacy
of a scholar whom he rightly took to task in his book "Ivory Towers on
Sand": Edward Said.
 
The writings of Said - especially his best-known book, "Orientalism" -
have unfortunately disseminated a patronizing view that in the Arab
world, responsibility both for what goes wrong and for setting things
right rests on the shoulders of Western powers.
 
What led to Mubarak's resignation in Egypt was not that the U.S.
government had somehow abandoned him, but rather that the military,
feeling the heat of mass protests, carried out a de facto coup. The
same is true of Ben Ali in Tunisia, although there the military has
now chosen to withdraw from politics.
 
In any case, a widespread problem with analysis of current
developments in the Arab world is a tendency to impose false
dichotomies. For instance, on the subject of Egypt's future, too much
ink has been wasted on asking whether that country will emerge as a
full-blown Islamist state or a healthy democracy. In fact, it is time
to appreciate that a new norm will be dominating the region: chaos.
Too often, commentators overlook demography, economy, tribal
affiliations and climate change in their assessments of current and
likely future trends.
 
For example, in Egypt, the ongoing protests in Tahrir Square have
brought the economy to a grinding halt. Besides considerable decreases
in tourism revenue and deleterious labor strikes, Bedouin tribes are
stirring up trouble in Sinai, having taken over the Aqua Sun holiday
resort - once a favorite destination for Israelis - at the end of last
month with demands for a ransom of $660,000.
 
More generally, with a rapidly growing population of over 80 million,
huddled around the Nile in an area that is only some 2.5 times the
size of Israel, and with sharp divisions among political parties
regarding how to solve the economic crisis facing the nation -
Egyptians will continue to be quick to anger, having realized that the
overthrow of Mubarak has led to no real improvement in quality of
life, triggering a vicious cycle of further unrest. Likewise, few have
noticed that Syria looks set to face a Malthusian-style collapse in
the event of the fall of Bashar Assad's regime. The Sunni heartland is
likely to succumb to the demographic and environmental pressures that
helped trigger the uprising in the first place.
 
A traditionally pro-natalist policy on the part of the government has
meant that the tribally dominated peripheries of Syria in particular
have witnessed rapid population growth, especially among the armed
tribes of Deir ez Zor, which contains most of Syria's dwindling oil
reserves.
 
With Assad gone, these tribes will surely demand their fair share of
oil revenues, potentially triggering another "periphery versus center"
conflict like those that have characterized much of this country's
uprising so far, or leaving the rest of Syria with less to spend on
itself - above all as regards net importation of petroleum and oil
products.
 
In addition, the suburban slums of Syria's major cities are teeming
with hundreds of thousands of displaced migrants, owing to climate
change and severe water shortages, with 500,000 people displaced from
areas inhabited by the Inezi tribe in eastern Syria because of drought
caused by shifts in rainfall patterns.
 
In 2007-8, 160 villages in northern Syria were abandoned for the same
reasons. All this significantly increases the possibility that the
country will fall apart once Assad goes, especially when one factors
in sectarian tensions that have plagued cities like Homs.
 
For Israel, chaos is ultimately a good thing. It means that the
Islamists and other hostile forces will be too distracted by
infighting to focus any attention on fighting Israel. As for policy,
Israel need only adopt a strong deterrence strategy. That is, to issue
a stern warning that any foreign aggression will be met with severe
retaliation, and act on such a warning should such aggression arise.
Deterrence, however, must be consistent.
 
In the meantime, we must accept that chaos will be the main trend in
the region for quite some time, rather than constantly fret over false
"liberal democracy vs. Islamist theocracy" dichotomies.
 
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford
University, and an adjunct Fellow at the Middle East Forum. His
website is 
http://www.aymennjawad.org
.
 
 
 
http://www.haaretz.com/
 

 For Israel, chaos is ultimately a good thing.
 
100.000 morti in Libia, migliaia negli altri paesi. Ottima cosa, per
Israele. Poi non si chiedono perchè li odiano, la risposta è che sono
antisemiti gli altri, mica antiarabi loro...

 100.000 morti in Libia, migliaia negli altri paesi.
 
Li ha fatti Israele, cretinetti?
 
 
-- 
“Those who expect to reap the blessings of  freedom, must, like men, 
undergo the  fatigues of supporting it.”
 
North Idaho 21st Batallion of Light Foot

 Li ha fatti Israele
 
"per Israele, sono una buona cosa".

Il 21/02/12 23:01, stalinist dandy ha scritto:

Il caos l'hanno fatto altri.
Purtroppo per voi non è andato nella direzione che speravate.
 
Che ci vuoi fare, Bombacci?



no.

 Il caos l'hanno fatto altri.
 
e a Israele non dispiace. Ci si può stupire se chi lo subisce odi chi
lo fa e chi se ne compiace?

 lo fa e chi se ne compiace?
 
Il caos lo stanno facendo, quindi dovrebbero solidarizzare con Israele, 
che ne apprezza l'esito. No?


 wrote:
 
qui c'era uno che ha lasciato sul pavimento qualcosa che significar
per verba non si poria...


Temo che i tuoi schizzetti abbiano imbrattato lo schermo impedendoti
di proseguire la lettura dell'articolo arrivando all'autore.
 
 

 Che ci vuoi fare, Bombacci?
 
Le seghe. Come sempre...


l'autore è PRIMA dell'articolo. Sei sicuro di aver letto bene?

 Le seghe. Come sempre...
 
 
-- 
“Those who expect to reap the blessings of  freedom, must, like men,
undergo the  fatigues of supporting it.”  - North Idaho 21st Batallion of
Light Foot


Credo che per te sia già troppo lontano. È dopo il subject.
