Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Ma va'

NATO invites Russia to join Afghan fray
By M K Bhadrakumar
Quando si arriva alla disperazione, si fa di tutto.
Da vedere chi perde di piu' nella avventura deja vu.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials have revealed
their proposal with Moscow regarding a vastly stepped up Russian
involvement in the Afghan war is in the final stages of negotiation
and they are hopeful of formal agreement being reached at the
alliance's two-day summit in Lisbon from November 19.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has announced his acceptance of the
NATO invitation to attend the Lisbon summit, where he also scheduled
to have a two-hour meeting with United States President Barack Obama.
Aside Afghanistan, Medvedev's agenda includes Iran, a Russian proposal
on a European security architecture and NATO's offer to cooperate with
Russia on its missile defense system (which it is linking up with the
US's).
Afghanistan promises to be the biggest vector of Russia-NATO
cooperation to date. It doesn't come as surprise. A sort of romance
was in the air though Moscow kept coyly disputing. Like in the Charles
Dickens novel David Copperfield, we knew "Barkis is willing". Barkis
fell for small things - Clara Peggotty making "apple parsties" or that
she "does all the cooking" - but the smart Russian diplomats will
drive a hard bargain with NATO before a nuptial knot is tied.
The Russian ingenuity aims at making cooperation with the NATO a
lucrative business deal as much as a political embrace.
However, the timing is significant. NATO hopes to tango with Russia in
Lisbon within a few hours of settling into a long-term partnership
with Kabul under a status of forces agreement with the Afghan
government that peers into the post-war era. In short, NATO is joining
hands with Russia even as it consolidates military presence in Central
Asia - an incredible turn to the great game.
But stranger things have happened.
Moscow seems increasingly confident of the reset with the US.
The big question is how Afghan President Hamid Karzai and a host of
others - Iranians, Central Asians (especially Uzbeks), Chinese and the
Afghans (especially Pashtuns) - view an emergent NATO-Russia
condominium.
NATO officials indicated that the deals included a supply of Russian
helicopters and Russian crews to train Afghan pilots, Russian military
instructors training Afghan military, expansion of the transit and
supply routes for NATO forces in Afghanistan via Russian territory,
and effective cooperation in curbing drug trafficking and
strengthening border security.
The NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen told the Guardian
newspaper: "The [Lisbon] summit can mark a new start in the
relationship between NATO and Russia. We will hopefully agree on a
broad range of areas in which we can develop practical cooperation on
Afghanistan, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics.
''Russia is strongly interested in increased cooperation ... Last
December when I visited Moscow I suggested that Russia provide
helicopters for the Afghan army. Since then Russia has reflected on
that and there are now bilateral talks between Russia and the United
States. I would not exclude that we will facilitate that process
within the NATO-Russian Council."
Russian helicopters are rugged machines suitable for the tough
conditions in Afghanistan and Afghan armed forces are used to Soviet-
era equipment. Russia has been insisting on a "commercial" deal. But
the deal has manifestly political overtones. Will Russia be deputing
its military instructors to Afghanistan or will Afghan officers get
trained in the Russian military academies?
The proposal to deploy Russian helicopter crews to Afghanistan is a
dramatic step. Of all the images etched deep in the Afghan
consciousness and jihad mythology, it is the Russian helicopter
gunships criss-crossing the Afghan skies raining death and destruction
during the period 1979-89 that still evokes fear and fury. No doubt,
the return of Russian military personnel becomes a highly symbolic
turning point in the 30-year Afghan civil war.
How far is NATO is coordinating with Karzai? Karzai kept a cool
distance from Moscow during most of the time and only lately, when his
relations with the West began plummeting did he begin thawing. Karzai
will now have to think hard and measure the hostility toward Russia
still among the Afghan people. He is debilitated in the Afghan bazaar
by the image of being a puppet of foreign powers.
Second, Karzai is barely keeping equilibrium in a tempestuous
relationship with Western forces over whom he has no control. Two days
ago, he lashed out at the West. He also "stormed out" of a meeting
with the US commander, General David Petraeus. Conceivably, he is also
watching with disquiet the latest chapter in the US's dalliance with
the Pakistani military. Karzai's preference will be to have
independent dealings with the regional powers, especially Russia.
Third, the Russian entry will cast shadows on the Afghan ethnic
mosaic. It has been with non-Pashtun nationalities - especially Tajiks
and Uzbeks - that Moscow got deeply involved over the years. Moscow
had little to do with the Hazaras and was mostly on uneasy terms with
the Pashtuns (despite keeping subsoil contacts with the Taliban). The
officer corps of Afghan armed forces is predominantly Tajik and the
Pashtuns have misgivings that Moscow is once again developing the
sinews of its erstwhile proxies.
More so, as the Russian military personnel will be coming in at a time
when non-Pashtun groups have begun secretly arming themselves fearing
a Taliban takeover in Kabul.
The Taliban will take serious note of any form of Russian military
involvement in the war and that can have serious implications for the
Taliban's future cooperation with Central Asian militant groups. The
Taliban viewed as something within acceptable threshold that Russia
provided NATO with air and land supply and transit arrangements. But
the threshold of the Taliban's tolerance may change, especially if the
nascent peace talks fail to take off and the accent falls on the
resistance.
Third, suffice to say that regional powers like China, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan will be curious about Russia joining hands with NATO
bilaterally, sidestepping the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In effect, the
kaleidoscope of collective security in Central Asia undergoes an
ominous tilt. NATO still views the CSTO and SCO disdainfully.
On balance, NATO and the US are net gainers. The timing is perfect.
NATO ensures that Moscow acquiesces in its long-term military presence
in the region. NATO has multiple motives. With the specter of defeat
staring at it, NATO has nothing to lose. These are days when the
alliance and the US in particular feel lonely when the dusk falls -
and it's good to have company of friends who have moved about in the
dark in the Hindu Kush. In any case, Moscow has been bending over
backward to be helpful.
It is useful to keep Russia engaged instead of ignoring it lest it
acted as a "spoiler". Moscow still wields influence over non-Pashtun
groups opposed to reconciliation with the Taliban. Also, Pakistan no
more objects to Russia's entry. Moscow made serious overtures to
Islamabad to reach a modus vivendi over Afghanistan and it is paying
dividends.
In practical terms, the northern supply route via Russian territory is
a great boon for NATO with insurgents having stepped up attacks on the
two routes running through Pakistan.
But the geopolitics of NATO-Russia tie-up isolates China and Iran.
Conceivably, the US is pursuing this tie-up as a matter of regional
policy. According to NATO officials, a separate agreement on limited
Russian cooperation with NATO's European missile defense plans is also
in prospect at the Lisbon summit, which is a symbolic demonstration of
a security matrix struggling to be born. It seems the reset process
with Russia that Washington mooted modestly as a course correction
from the George W Bush era is beginning to impact on the geopolitical
chessboard.

 Da vedere chi perde di piu' nella avventura deja vu.
veramente mi pare che il nostro amico Bhadrakumar si stia inquietando per il 
fatto che la Cina non sia stata invitata alla festa...e allora cerca di 
seminare 'zizzania' mostrando vantaggi Nato a non finire... C'� molto fumo 
in questa faccenda...

 a un fin de race dei Curzon, che vendettero il kulo ai Mosley fascisti.
cosa mi ha insegnato scusa?
Ad ogni modo chiamami pure George se ti fa piacere... :-)) 

 Afghanistan promises to be the biggest vector of Russia-NATO
#_Afghanistan;
'Sta pentola che scotta se la stanno passando da un pezzo, me p�re!
Stai a vedere che la Russia riuscira` ad ottenere lo sbocco all'Oceano 
Indiano per portare al mercato mondiale quel "bumbo" che alla CCCP fu 
negato!?

 cosa mi ha insegnato scusa?
#_Un viatico per ovviare all'anorgasm�a vaginale.

 #_Un viatico per ovviare all'anorgasmìa vaginale.
le tue condizioni mentali peggiorano vedo... :-) 

 negato!?
Help, I need some body, help.
Ricordo una riunione NATO in Romania con Bush che pareva Hitler a
Parigi.
Vladimiro parlava e loro sghignazzavano.
Il guaio e' che non riescono a portare le 12 portaerei sull'Indo Kush.
Gli finira' come agli inglesi nell'800.