Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Weapons of self-destruction (Asia Times) L'Irak sta per esplodere?

UN pezzo assai terrificante ma anche assai lucido, IMHO. Magari da 
mettere in parallelo con l'ingresso di Bin Laden in Irak, come sostenuto 
da Debka.com.
Am.
Weapons of self-destruction 
By W Joseph Stroupe 
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest 
writers to have their say. Please click here  if you are interested in 
contributing. 
Iraq is dangerously close to the threshold - the point of no return at 
which an ideological-sectarian chain reaction is triggered and a rapidly 
accelerated disintegration along sectarian lines occurs. The blinding 
flash of Iraq's disintegration will be followed closely by a powerful 
shockwave radiating outward in all directions, then by an irresistible 
reverse force that will pull Iraq's neighbors into the vortex. That is 
the point at which the US begins to suffer an irreversible forfeiture in 
Iraq. 
The political detonation described here, in which Iraq's enriched, 
fissionable sectarian factions or elements are rammed together 
forcefully by the current US-driven political process, finally reach 
critical mass and then detonate to cause Iraq's violent disintegration, 
is imminent. Consequently, not only has the US finally uncovered Iraq's 
political WMSD (weapons of mass self-destruction) but it is also, 
knowingly or unknowingly, racing toward the triggering of a political 
fission bomb of enormous yield with widespread regional and even global 
fallout. 
Enrichment of ideological-sectarian fissionable elements 
To achieve a fission detonation you must start with highly enriched fuel 
in which the concentration of the radioactive elements is very high in 
relation to the inert elements. 
Several important factors have resulted in the ideological-sectarian 
elements in Iraq becoming very highly enriched. When the US collapsed 
the entire Saddam Hussein regime, at one and the same time it removed 
the damper block that kept Iraq's sectarian factions under control. It 
removed the force of suppression that had kept Iraq's primary three 
disparate ideologies from becoming concentrated, potent, radicalized or 
enriched enough to be politically fissionable. After the removal of 
Saddam's regime the US replaced it with nothing to act as a suppressor 
or damper. Therefore, the political-ideological enrichment process, long 
suppressed, began to flourish out in the open as each of Iraq's 
sectarian factions dreamed of establishing (or, in the case of Sunnis, 
reestablishing) itself in a position of freedom and of control over Iraq 
and its oil-rich regions. 
Thus, the Kurdish faction became highly enriched politically and 
ideologically as respects its demand for an independent Kurdistan in 
Iraq's north. Today, that faction proclaims that it will not compromise 
on its demands for Kurdish autonomy, retention of its own heavily armed 
militias and control of oil-rich Kirkuk. Neither will it submit to an 
Iraq governed by Islamic law. 
Likewise, the Shi'ite faction is intent on establishing autonomous 
control over Iraq's south and appears determined to put forth Islamic 
law as the basis for Iraq's judiciary and system of laws. It is allying 
itself closely to Iran. The Shi'ite element has thus become very highly 
enriched. 
Finally, the Sunni faction fears that federalism or outright autonomy in 
the oil-rich north and south will cause Iraq's breakup, leaving the 
Sunnis holding the comparatively worthless central regions of Iraq. It 
disdains Islamic law and has taken to violent means to try to prevent an 
Iraqi scenario that would leave it on the outside looking in. The Sunni 
element has thus become very highly enriched also. 
Each of Iraq's ideological-sectarian elements increasingly displays a 
high concentration of radioactive elements as compared to those elements 
that are inert. Radicalism flourishes in an environment of instability, 
violence and hopelessness. Such conditions prolonged for nearly 
two-and-a-half years after the destruction of the Saddam regime are 
causing Iraqis to revert to their respective ideological-political 
roots, to distrust, resent and even to despise rival sectarian factions 
and increasingly to push for the interests of one's chosen sectarian 
faction to the exclusion of all others. Iraq's three-way polarization is 
increasing, deepening. The ideological positions of each sectarian 
element are acutely hardening. That is akin to the enriching of Iraq's 
ideological-sectarian elements, making those elements highly 
fissionable. Iraq does have extremely potent, highly enriched 
fissionable elements that have been uncovered by the US invasion and 
occupation. As such, Iraq already has all the elements and know-how for 
the production of a very potent political WMD, one that will result 
quickly in its self-destruction. It has only to be assembled and 
triggered. 
However, as is often the case with the development of WMD, Iraq is 
receiving outside help to propel it along the destructive path. How so? 
State of critical mass 
The achievement of an actual fission detonation occurs when highly 
enriched fissionable elements are quickly compressed together by outside 
forces to reach a state of critical mass. This can be accomplished by 
ramming those elements together or by spherically imploding the 
fissionable elements together. The result is a catastrophic fission 
detonation that releases far more energy than that used to achieve the 
initial implosion. 
The US-driven political process in Iraq seeks to prevent the breakup of 
the country by creating a new democratic Iraqi government and 
constitution that bind Iraq's sectarian elements together. That is a 
noble goal. However, the means employed by the US in an attempt to 
achieve that goal are very problematic and are inherently dangerous. So 
is the highly compressed timeframe for its achievement currently being 
pushed upon Iraq by the US. In effect, the US-driven means and timeframe 
amount to ramming or imploding Iraq's fissionable sectarian elements 
together, rather than carefully and methodically binding them together. 
The US is foolishly risking a catastrophic political, 
ideological-sectarian fission detonation in Iraq. It is not only 
assembling the political fission bomb, but it is also flicking the 
trigger mechanism to see if it can get a light. 
The US massively over-reached in Iraq when it launched its invasion, 
occupation and nation-building effort (collectively, "regime change") in 
March 2003. Its costs (to the US) in terms of lives, money, political 
and diplomatic capital, global credibility and goodwill and military 
readiness have been colossal, and such costs continue to mount. The US 
is desperate, therefore, to significantly reduce its military presence 
and to try to put the Iraq crisis and all its implications and 
repercussions behind itself. That desperation is driving the extremely 
short, highly compressed timeframe for the achievement of political 
goals in Iraq. That highly compressed timeframe is entirely impractical 
and acutely dangerous. You simply cannot thrust Iraq's highly enriched 
sectarian elements together so rapidly without risking an enormous and 
potent detonation. 
Not only that, but the actual methods being employed by the US to try to 
consolidate Iraq's ideological factions are far too dangerous and 
forceful. When the US drove the process of the drafting of the interim 
Iraqi constitution in 2004 when it handed sovereignty back to the 
interim Iraqi government, it pitted Iraq's factions against one another 
out of fear one faction might rise to the ascendancy. Thus the interim 
constitution played well to Kurdish hopes, goals and interests but it 
simultaneously sought to undermine those of the larger Shi'ite faction. 
Sunni interests were largely ignored, or at least, grossly understated. 
At the same time, for fear that the Kurdish faction would gain 
inordinate potency, the document denied certain rights and goals sought 
with great determination by the Kurdish faction. The US has played the 
Kurdish and Sunni factions against the Shi'ite in various ways for fear 
the Shi'ite would gain the ascendancy. Such shortsighted methods bring 
to birth increased frustration, resentment and violence between 
factions. 
Additionally, US policies and actions in Iraq have all too often 
employed inordinate force and even cruelty. The brutal and 
indiscriminate siege of Fallujah and the widespread Iraqi prisoner abuse 
scandal are notable examples. Such methods sow the seeds of deeper and 
wider resistance to the presence of foreign forces and foreign influence 
over domestic political processes. Far too large a percentage of Iraqis 
view the US as the oppressor rather than the liberator, and that 
percentage is growing rather than declining. Consequently, attempting to 
promote democracy at the barrel of a gun tends to fundamentally 
undermine the credibility of the invading force, resulting in eventual 
forfeiture of that political objective as the sectarian factions succumb 
to deep-seated suspicion of the real motives of the occupying forces. 
And as Iraq's environment slides ever faster toward greater sectarian 
violence and less security and stability, the US-driven political 
processes become less and less relevant and increasingly serve merely to 
showcase the fundamental incompatibility between Iraq's factions. That 
fact greatly increases the tension and resentment between factions. 
That was the case with respect to the Iraqi elections in January. Rather 
than serving to alleviate Iraq's sectarian rivalries as hoped, the 
election results announced on February 13 significantly added fuel to 
the already raging fire in Iraq. The prospect of Shi'ite dominance, the 
Sunni minority status and Kurdish strength in the north were 
demonstrated by those election results. The incompatible goals and 
ideologies of Iraq's three main factions were thus showcased. The 
result? Iraq's insurgency kicked into high gear, Kurdish radicals 
launched more deadly attacks against Turkey and Turkish interests and 
Shi'ite militias resorted to revenge attacks against Sunnis. Some of 
Iraq's most prominent leaders have recently stated without equivocation 
that Iraq is already descending into the beginnings of a civil war. 
While the political process is not dead yet, each of Iraq's main 
sectarian factions has moved outside that process in significant ways to 
secure its interests and goals as hopes for success of the political 
process fade into oblivion. 
Draft constitution as the final trigger?
Against that background the US is driving Iraq's factions hard to 
complete by the August 15 deadline the drafting of Iraq's new 
constitution. The US has openly entered the fray, pushing hard to ensure 
the document reads as it wishes. But such political pressure merely 
amounts to more of the same - a forced imploding together of Iraq's 
highly enriched sectarian elements, elements that are now easily 
fissionable. The US is playing with nuclear fire in a political sense, 
therefore. 
In the current situation in Iraq it will not require much additional in 
the way of outside pressure and force to finally implode Iraq's highly 
enriched sectarian elements into a state of critical mass, resulting in 
a detonation no sane person wants. The imminent end of the process of 
the drafting of Iraq's new constitution, or the failure of that process, 
is very likely to constitute the trigger for the detonation of Iraq's 
political WMD. Whether that process of drafting a new constitution 
"succeeds" (highly unlikely) or fails, it will signal Iraq's arrival at 
the threshold of an ideological-sectarian state of critical mass and a 
resulting detonation. How so? 
The process of drafting Iraq's constitution is ramming, or imploding 
together its fundamentally incompatible, highly enriched, fissionable 
sectarian factions. No workable solution to Iraq's sectarian divisions 
exists ­ at least not in the acutely accelerated timeframe being pushed 
hard by the US. 
On the issues of autonomy and federalism, the role of Islamic law, 
survival of Iraq's sectarian, heavily armed militias and a number of 
other important issues Iraq's factions have hardened their respective 
positions, are far apart, and are getting even further apart. Any 
"breakthrough" that might be achieved in the foreseeable future will be 
nothing more than an attempt to paper over such fundamental differences. 
Such a breakthrough will do nothing to alleviate Iraq's volatile 
sectarian tensions. In fact, it would likely accomplish the precise 
opposite, outraging each faction because cherished, non-negotiable 
interests and goals of the respective factions would be watered down for 
the sake of an agreement that satisfies few if any fundamental goals and 
demands of those respective factions. Such an agreement would most 
likely be seen merely as an attempt to pacify the US occupier. 
Subsequently, abandonment of the US-driven political process in favor of 
strident self-interest would be the most likely course for each of the 
three main factions. In effect, a political fission detonation in the 
form of a breakup of Iraq, likely under conditions of a full-blown civil 
war, would quickly ensue. 
If, as is most likely, Iraq's factions come to the conclusion by the 
August 15 deadline that the political process is dead or dying and that 
the drafting of a new constitution has failed or is in serious trouble, 
then what? US pressure for the Iraqi representatives to go back to the 
table to iron out their differences and complete the drafting of the 
constitution will be enormous, but also very counter-productive, again 
amounting to a dangerous ramming or imploding together of Iraq's 
fissionable elements. Such US pressure could actually trigger a 
nationwide political detonation. 
As the August 15 deadline approaches Iraq is nearing the threshold, the 
point of no return, when a political chain reaction starts under rapidly 
building US pressure and moves quickly to a full-blown detonation. The 
US has removed all the safety mechanisms and is going for broke, as it 
were, with respect to Iraq's political process. Iraq is therefore like a 
nuclear weapon that is already fully armed, and the countdown to 
detonation begins when parliament receives word on the state of the 
draft constitution. Iraq, as a nation, cannot survive the coming 
detonation. 
Repercussions for Iraq, the US and the region 
A breakup of Iraq along sectarian lines, most likely violent and bloody, 
is becoming ever more likely as the political process advances. That is 
because Iraq is itself an artificial creation composed of sectarian 
factions that are fundamentally incompatible with each other. And as the 
political process advances those fundamental incompatibilities are 
brought painfully to the surface to be showcased for all to see. The 
participants in that process are becoming ever more convinced that their 
future lies along the path of regional autonomy, or even secession. 
However, a Kurdish-dominated autonomous or independent Kurdistan in the 
north that lays claim to Kirkuk will spark intervention by Turkey and 
perhaps Syria. Against the backdrop of increasing terrorist attacks on 
Turkish interests, ongoing ethnic reconfiguration of north Iraq in favor 
of the Kurdish faction but detrimental to Turkomen and Arabs, and the 
growing restiveness of Kurdish minorities inside Turkey, Syria and Iran, 
Turkish-Syrian intervention is imminent. It could occur at any time. 
In the south of Iraq the Shi'ite faction already is moving much closer 
to Iran. It also is prepared for Shi'ite autonomy, or even secession, if 
it deems that action to be in its best interests. It has Iran's promise 
of economic, energy and security assistance. Thus, the formation of a 
new Islamic state governed by Shi'ite ideology is becoming a very high 
probability, whereas not long ago that eventuality was considered 
somewhat unlikely. 
In the Sunni triangle the anger, frustration and violence is the 
greatest, and that will only worsen as the Sunni faction becomes ever 
more disenfranchised and isolated from Iraq's oil wealth potential. With 
all three factions heavily armed and intent on preserving their 
respective interests at all costs, a full-blown civil war simultaneous 
with Iraq's breakup is a high probability. 
The US will either be stuck in the middle with the Sunnis, trying in 
vain to keep the warring factions separated or it will be forced by 
events to withdraw its forces under fire, letting Iraq go in whatever 
direction it may go. Either way, the US loses in a colossal way. Its 
democratic goals and energy security interests in the entire region will 
be forfeited as Iraq disintegrates and its neighbors (Turkey, Syria and 
Iran) rush in to pick up the pieces, discounting completely US interests 
in the process. 
The rise of Turkey, of Syria, and most notably of Shi'ite Iran allied 
closely with a new Shi'ite Islamic state in south Iraq will receive a 
giant push forward. The rise of Iran in particular will have 
far-reaching consequences for the US and the world. And insurgents and 
terrorists now operating in Iraq will be flung far outside Iraq, 
region-wide, to threaten the safety and stability of oil-rich pro-US 
regimes in Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. 
These developments and others like them will constitute the toxic 
fallout of Iraq's political fission detonation. 
The US considers this to be the true nightmare scenario, and for very 
good reason. However, not only it is now powerless to stop that scenario 
from coming true, it is foolishly helping to bring it about! The US 
cannot possibly face a withdrawal of its forces from Iraq under fire in 
the scenario detailed above and at the same time leave Iran intact, 
enabling it to be catapulted to the status of the new Islamic nuclear 
superpower at the head of the Persian Gulf. However, the risks of 
hitting Iran militarily on the way out of Iraq are enormous, even 
colossal. The after-effects of such a strategy are almost too terrible 
to consider when one looks at the political, ideological and economic 
repercussions. Yet, the Bush administration will soon have to choose 
which of its self-made evils is the lesser, and it is not yet safe to 
conclude there will be no US or Israeli military hit on ascendant Iran. 
The imminent forfeiture and disintegration of Iraq will live up in every 
way to the analogy used here of a detonation of a weapon of mass 
self-destruction. The approaching August 15 deadline for the completion 
of Iraq's draft constitution will likely be an important marked point in 
time, when the shortened countdown to that detonation begins. 
W Joseph Stroupe is editor in chief of Global Events Magazine at 
www.GeoStrategyMap.com
, and online magazine specializing in strategic 
analysis and forecasting.

Riedito, senno' non si capisce.
Am.
Weapons of self-destruction By W Joseph Stroupe
Iraq is dangerously close to the threshold - the point of no return at 
which an ideological-sectarian chain reaction is triggered and a 
rapidly accelerated disintegration along sectarian lines occurs. The 
blinding flash of Iraq's disintegration will be followed closely by a 
powerful shockwave radiating outward in all directions, then by an 
irresistible reverse force that will pull Iraq's neighbors into the 
vortex. That is the point at which the US begins to suffer an 
irreversible forfeiture in Iraq.
The political detonation described here, in which Iraq's enriched, 
fissionable sectarian factions or elements are rammed together 
forcefully by the current US-driven political process, finally reach 
critical mass and then detonate to cause Iraq's violent disintegration, 
is imminent. Consequently, not only has the US finally uncovered Iraq's 
political WMSD (weapons of mass self-destruction) but it is also, 
knowingly or unknowingly, racing toward the triggering of a political 
fission bomb of enormous yield with widespread regional and even global 
fallout.
Enrichment of ideological-sectarian fissionable elements.


come sostenuto da Debka.com.
*ROTFL*
-Stefano

 lucide ... puttanate
Non svalutarti, De Ce'...
Am. ---->
-- 
Fede: Credere senza prove a ciň che viene detto da uno che parla senza 
cognizione di causa di cose senza paragone (Ambrose Bierce).

 Non svalutarti, De Ce'...
Svaluto la merda che leggi tu e che riporti pure sul newsgroup, caro
*FESSO* di un Amalric Bond :)
-Stefano

 Sva
pio pio, puss puss...
Am.

 pio pio, puss puss...
Il *FESSO* si e' rotto :)
-Stefano

 Weapons of self-destruction By W Joseph Stroupe
#_Interessantissimo articolo con una acuta analogia che ricalca la catena di
eventi in un'esplosione nucleare.
Tutto piu`che logico e per questo spaventoso.
Giano