Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: 2nda gestione- Problema No1

Perlomeno tre giudici della corte suprema lasceranno il loro posto; per 
avere un paese non diviso i nove componenti devono essere piu`o meno 
politicamente bilanciati ; attualmente 5-4 in favore dei conservatori rep. , 
ma i demo-liberali americani paventano un netto spostamento del baricentro a 
favore dei rep. , se questo avverra` il paese sara` ancora piu` diviso nella 
risoluzione dei problemi piu`alla superficie : aborto ; matrimonio fra 
omosessuali, nonche` tutti gli altri problemi di ordine sociale che gli US 
si trascinano.
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/20/election.scotus/
Election could tip balance of Supreme Court
Changes could effect a range of hot-button issues
From Bill Mears
CNN Washington Bureau
Thursday, October 21, 2004 Posted: 1655 GMT (0055 HKT)
Many Supreme Court watchers expect at least one, and up to four, retirements 
in the next four years.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With retirements looking more likely, the next president 
could help tip the balance of the nation's highest court, which now stands 
in a loose 5-4 conservative majority.

continua:
(Per qualche ragione era scomparso il resto dell'articolo)
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All but one of the nine U.S. Supreme Court justices is over 65, and many 
Court watchers expect at least one, perhaps as many as four, retirements in 
the next four years.
Any change could potentially have enormous political, social and legal 
implications on a range of hot-button issues.
"It could change the way this country operates for the next 40 years, well 
beyond the time the president is in power," said Paul Rothstein, a 
Georgetown University law professor.
The issue has come up in two presidential debates and is hotly debated among 
a number of political and issues groups, who have used a possible change on 
the Court to rally supporters and raise money for their causes.
Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic challenger has also aired television ads. In 
one from April, a narrator says, "The Supreme Court is just one vote away 
from outlawing a woman's right to choose. George Bush will appoint 
anti-choice, anti-privacy justices. But you can stop him. Help elect John 
Kerry."
One reason for voter interest is that a closely divided electorate mirrors 
the Supreme Court's current ideological makeup, and a change of a singe 
justice could quickly shift the future of laws affecting abortion, death 
penalty, gay rights, race relations, religious expression, and the power of 
the federal government to override state laws.
A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found 53 percent of those surveyed 
believe President Bush would do a better job handling Supreme Court 
nominations while 37 percent favored Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry.
Kerry, like Al Gore four years before, has talked frequently about having a 
Supreme Court "that will protect our hard won victories."
He told the National Baptist Convention last month, "It was just four short 
years ago that the Court -- by one vote -- decided the outcome of the race 
for president. It was less than a year ago that the Court -- by one vote --  
decided the fate of affirmative action. One vote can make the difference for 
millions of Americans, and over the next four years the president of the 
United States will appoint as many as four Supreme Court justices."
President Bush has said little on the issue, but he noted in the 2000 
presidential campaign that two justices he admired were conservatives 
Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.
During the second presidential debate in St. Louis on October 8, neither 
Bush nor Kerry would offer specifics on who they would nominate to the high 
court. In the final debate in Arizona, Bush repeated his past aversion to 
any legal "litmus test" when naming judges, while Sen. Kerry said he would 
not pick a candidate who would reverse any constitutional right, such as the 
right to an abortion.
But all that rhetoric hinges on who would leave the Supreme Court bench, and 
when. The nine current members of the Court have been together a decade, the 
longest uninterrupted span in nearly two centuries.
No justice planning to leave
Legal analysts have long been predicting a retirement was imminent, only to 
be proven wrong. Sources at the Court say there are no current plans for any 
justice to step down, particularly in an election year.
And by all accounts the group of nine get along well personally, despite 
their ideological differences. Sources also say the justices enjoy their job 
and are fully engaged in the daily business of the court. Yet some legal 
analysts predict change will come sooner rather than later.
"If Bush is re-elected, I would suspect several justices would step down in 
the next four years," said Michael Gerhardt, a constitutional expert at 
William and Mary's Law School.
Chief Justice William Rehnquist is considered by many the next candidate to 
retire. He has been on the bench since 1972 (18 as chief justice) and turned 
80 recently. He has suffered in the past from back and leg problems.
Rehnquist told an interviewer in 2001 that "traditionally, Republican 
appointees have tended to retire during Republican administrations." He 
would not expand on that thought, but it suggested a political realization 
that presidents should be allowed to replace one justice with another of 
similar ideology.
O'Connor a key swing vote
Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, 74, may share a similar ideology. She is the 
only current justice to have served in elective office, as a state senator 
in Arizona.
She was nominated by President Reagan in 1981, and recovered from breast 
cancer 16 years ago. Like the other justices, O'Connor sidesteps talk of 
retirement, and even joked about the process following her recovery from 
surgery.
"The worst was my public visibility, frankly," she said. "There was constant 
media converge: 'How does she look?' 'When is she gonna step down and give 
the President another vacancy on the Court?' 'You know, she looks pale to 
me, I don't give her six months....'"
As a key swing vote, O'Connor's absence may cause the most immediate impact 
on a fractured Court.
"She has created the majority in many, many cases of important social 
issues. These 5-4 votes, she is the fifth vote," said Rothstein. "She is the 
power of the Court. Who she gets replaced by, similar swing vote or a strong 
conservative or a strong liberal can determine some very big social issues."
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 71, also had cancer surgery.
Another potential retiree is Justice John Paul Stevens, at 84 the oldest 
justice. Nominated in 1975 by President Ford, Stevens has since carved out a 
reliably liberal record on the bench, and many wonder whether he would step 
down if President Bush is re-elected.
Among the other justices, Scalia and Anthony Kennedy are 68, Stephen Breyer 
is 66, and David Souter is 65. Only Justice Thomas at age 58 is ineligible 
for Social Security.
"I think if, Kerry wins there's a reasonable chance that you might see 
Justice Stevens step down," predicted Edward Lazarus, a former Supreme Court 
clerk, and author of a book on the justices. "And if Bush wins, I think 
there's a reasonable chance you'd see the chief step down. I think we're 
getting close to it."