Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Blair Has Limits As Mideast Envoy

RAMALLAH, West Bank - Tony Blair couldn't ask for a better starting point
as the new Mideast peace envoy.
The Palestinian uprising has fizzled, and Israel says it's ready to work
with a moderate Palestinian leadership after seven years of stalemate.
But the former British prime minister only has a limited mandate when he
arrives in the region Monday, and despite his star appeal he could quickly
become one in a long succession of well-meaning, yet ultimately
ineffective mediators.
 One note of caution has come from James Wolfensohn, Blair's predecessor
as envoy of the diplomatic Quartet, made up of the U.S., the U.N., the EU
and Russia.
In 2005, Wolfensohn, a former World Bank president, was asked to oversee
the rebuilding of Gaza after Israel's pullout from the area. Wolfensohn
accomplished less than he had hoped and told the Israeli daily Haaretz
last week that his main problem had been a lack of authority.
"There was never a desire on the part of the Americans to give up control
of the negotiations, and I would doubt that in the eyes of (Deputy
National Security Adviser) Elliott Abrams and the State Department team I
was ever anything but a nuisance," Wolfensohn said.
Blair, who has two days of meetings scheduled with Israeli and Palestinian
leaders, also has been given a relatively limited assignment: to prepare
the ground for a Palestinian state by encouraging reform, economic
development and institution-building. There is no mention of trying to
help broker a final peace deal.
On the eve of the visit, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad met in
Jerusalem with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Palestinian officials
said they discussed Blair's mission and other initiatives.
Dan Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said the Bush
administration would hamstring the new envoy.
"Blair is entering the post with the exact same constraints that
Wolfensohn did, which is a United States that says, 'You will not engage
in any issues related to final status. You are only going to deal with
Palestinian institution building,'" Kurtzer told The Associated Press. "If
he doesn't expand his mandate, I would not be optimistic."
Blair also will have to confine his work to the West Bank, since the
international community continues to shun the Islamic militant Hamas
movement, which has seized control of Gaza.
However, chances of transforming the West Bank are perhaps better than any
time since the outbreak of Israeli-Palestinian fighting in 2000.
The violence, which left nearly 4,400 Palestinians and more than 1,100
Israelis dead, blocked any progress in peacemaking, but the uprising has
run out of steam. Hamas, responsible for scores of deadly attacks, is
largely contained behind Gaza's border fences and on the defensive in the
West Bank. Scores of gunmen from moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas' Fatah movement, meanwhile, have surrendered their weapons in
exchange for an Israeli amnesty.
The new West Bank government will likely be receptive to Blair's reform
proposals. The caretaker Cabinet, installed after the fall of Gaza to
Hamas, is headed by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, an economist who helped
clean up public finances during the era of Abbas' predecessor, the late
Yasser Arafat.
On a personal level, Blair can contribute political experience,
negotiating skills, knowledge of the conflict _ and enthusiasm. "I'm
nothing if not an optimist," he told a Quartet meeting last week.
But Palestinian reforms and economic development are closely linked to
progress toward a final peace deal, and there's no sign of that.
The Palestinians are eager to resume negotiations, but Israel says it's
too soon. Israel is willing to talk about general outlines of an
agreement, but argues that negotiations can only begin once Abbas has
disarmed militants and restored order in areas under his control.
"(Blair) may be able to get something done in terms of institution
building and confidence building," Israeli analyst Yossi Alpher said. "I
don't think he has any chance for anything you could call a spectacular
success by any means. My guess is he'll throw in the towel in frustration
in about a year."
Blair, who meets separately with Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert on Tuesday, starts his mission at a time of opportunity, Alpher
said, but Blair's close ties with President Bush and his support for the
Iraq war may hurt his credibility in the Arab world.
Palestinian economist Samir Hleileh said he doesn't expect any
breakthrough under Bush, and says for any chance of success Blair must
stick to his mission well beyond the 2008 U.S. presidential election.
____
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