Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: The early morning call

Il piano iraniano per assassinare l'ambasciatore saudita è un altro 
grosso problema per Obama, che si trova ad affrontare la famosa chiamata 
notturna evocata da Hilary Clinton in campagna elettorale
The Iran Terror Plot Crisis: Big Trouble for Obama
By Barry Rubin
Remember that Hillary Clinton ad about it being the early morning hours 
and the phone’s ringing in the White House? Well it’s arrived in real 
life, and the phone is -- or isn’t -- going to be answered by Barack 
Obama. And the question is: What are you going to do about the dramatic 
announcement of an Iranian plot to attack targets in Washington, D.C.?
True, it’s a bizarre story about Iranian Revolutionary Guards and 
Mexican drug lords. But, after all, the United States was impelled a 
step toward entering World War One by the Zimmerman Note in which German 
agents sought to entice Mexico to go to war against the United States.
Vice President Joe Biden has said that "nothing has been taken off the 
table" when it comes to the U.S. response. The Saudis, who are famous 
for keeping a low profile and trying to avoid problems -- often through 
money -- are openly livid. They’re basically saying something along the 
lines of, “We told you so.” They tried and gave up.
  Is This Story True?
There are some points that would make one question this whole garish 
tale. Most important:
--This does not match past Iranian practice. Many “experts” think this 
is the clincher, but precedent is not always a reliable guide. Things 
change. Be careful on this point.
--Why should some Iranian-American businessman in Texas be a key Iranian 
agent? It’s called secret agent work for a reason. A sleeper cell should 
not be obvious. And he did have a relative in the Revolutionary Guards.
--Why didn’t Iran use its own assets? I think this is a stronger 
argument. The whole thing is amateurish. Even if Iran was going to do 
this, it would have developed these contacts and not immediately 
entrusted some drug gang official that one of their guys barely knew. 
Wouldn’t they have preferred to use Middle Easterners and Muslims?
--What was the Iranian goal? Certainly, Iran has been threatening the 
United States with dire consequences for a while. But why the sudden 
decision to escalate? Revenge for sanctions? And what was their plan for 
concealing Iranian involvement if the attack did happen? One can explain 
such a change, but one cannot explain it very well. This raises 
questions, but again is not a definitive answer.
All that’s important is this: If the U.S. government has persuasive 
evidence, then it happened.
Might This Blow Up in the Obama’s Administration’s Face?
Absolutely yes.  If they were fooled by a fabricator, if revealing the 
case too soon (to stave off criticism of Attorney General Holder over 
the gun-smuggling case) damaged the chance of success in uncovering the 
terrorist network, or if the government’s response is not equal to the 
crisis they’ve developed, then the Obama administration will look worse.
This whole affair is extremely dangerous for the White House. Any idea 
that this is an easy win for the administration -- see how good we are 
at protecting America -- is dead wrong.
I am not arguing and do not believe that they created this plot, but 
this would not be the first time that U.S. officials have been fooled by 
Iranians with an agenda to fool them.
What Will the Administration Do about It?
The response is fraught with peril. The immediate reaction — we’ll 
mobilize world opinion! — makes the administration look buffoonish. If 
this is true, it is an act of war by Iran, at least by elements in the 
Iranian government (you know, the kind of people who could one day give 
nuclear weapons to terrorists).
Response A: Do Nothing
Wow, can you see that in the presidential debates in 2012? An enemy 
chose to attack the very capital city and the Obama administration could 
only respond with press releases and Biden growling!
Response B: The “Sunni Strategy”
This really scares me. This administration is quite capable of saying: 
Iran is the enemy so what we must do is work with our good Muslim 
friends, you know the Muslim Brotherhood? We need to win over Hamas and 
Hizballah from Iran by proving we are nice to them. Oh, and we need to 
work closely with that wonderful Turkish government, like letting them 
organize the political succession in Syria!
And so on. Do not underestimate the stupidity, incompetence, and 
ignorance of this administration regarding the Middle East.
Response C: A United Front against Revolutionary Islamism
The U.S. government takes the lead in organizing and supporting Europe, 
Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf monarchies, Israel, and Jordan into a 
cooperative alignment. Back the oppositions in Iran, Turkey, and 
Lebanon. Punish friends and reward enemies.
The point is not to go to war with Iran but to oppose Iranian interests 
and allies everywhere, including the use of covert operations. Challenge 
Iranian agents of influence in Lebanon and Iraq. Containment is not just 
about nuclear weapons for Tehran, but about the spreading influence of 
that regime.
That also means the United States must seem like a strong and determined 
leader. It must have very serious credibility. And it will have to 
identify revolutionary Islamism as the enemy.
Look, this is the Obama administration we are talking about. I don’t 
think they can do it. Hopefully, the next president can do so. There 
better be a next president in sight because there are a lot more crises 
on the way.
As I said at the start, I do not think this is some brilliant maneuver 
that will end up being to the Obama administration’s advantage. They 
have either made a huge mistake that’s going to be exposed or presented 
themselves with a challenge they cannot meet.
Ring! Ring! It’s your telephone, Mr. President.
-- 
Dead men may not talk, but they also don't lie.  [Chuck Hawks]

 grosso problema per Obama,
o il diversivo perfetto per non parlare della crisi che procede
spedita per la stragrande maggioranza degli yankee?


È un grosso problema che rischia di tradursi in grossi danni di immagine
sia che sia vero sia che sia una bufala.
Ma sarebbe una drammatica catastrofe se fosse una fabbricazione (una
ipotesi in cui a parte i fessi nessuno crede).
-- 
recoil is insignificant when there is a tiger on the head of your elephant