Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Sheik vs Shale

Dall'ultimo Economist
 
THE official charter of OPEC
states that the group’s goal is
“the stabilisation of prices in international
oil markets”. It has
not been doing a very good job.
In June the price of a barrel of
oil, then almost $115, began to
slide; it nowstands close to $70.
This near-40% plunge is thanks partly to the sluggish world
economy, which is consuming less oil than markets had anticipated,
and partly to OPEC itself, which has produced more
than markets expected. But the main culprits are the oilmen of
North Dakota and Texas. Over the past four years, as the price
hovered around $110 a barrel, theyhave set about extracting oil
from shale formations previously considered unviable. Their
manic drilling—they have completed perhaps 20,000 new
wells since 2010, more than ten times Saudi Arabia’s tally—has
boosted America’s oil production by a third, to nearly 9m barrels
a day (b/d). That is just 1m b/d short of Saudi Arabia’s output.
The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has
tipped the world from a shortage ofoil to a surplus.
Fuel injection
Cheaper oil should act like a shot of adrenalin to global
growth. A $40 price cut shifts some $1.3 trillion from producers
to consumers. The typical American motorist, who spent
$3,000 in 2013 at the pumps, might be $800 a year better off—
equivalent to a 2% pay rise. Big importing countries such as the
euro area, India, Japan and Turkey are enjoying especially big
windfalls. Since this money is likely to be spent rather than
stashed in a sovereign-wealth fund, global GDP should rise.
The falling oil price will reduce already-low inflation still further,
and so may encourage central bankers towards looser
monetary policy. The Federal Reserve will put offraising interest
rates for longer; the European Central Bank will act more
boldly to ward offdeflation by buying sovereign bonds.
There will, of course, be losers (see page 81). Oil-producing
countrieswhose budgets depend on high prices are in particular
trouble. The rouble tumbled this week as Russia’s prospectsdarkened
further. Nigeria has been forced to raise interest
rates and devalue the naira. Venezuela looks ever closer to defaulting
on its debt. The spectre of defaults and the speed and
scale of the price plunge have unnerved financial markets. But
the overall economic effect of cheaper oil is clearly positive.
Just how positive will depend on how long the price stays
low. That is the subject of a continuing tussle between OPEC
and the shale-drillers. Several members of the cartel want it to
cut its output, in the hope of pushing the price back up again.
But Saudi Arabia, in particular, seems mindful of the experience
of the 1970s, when a big leap in the price prompted huge
investments in new fields, leading to a decade-long glut. Instead,
the Saudis seem to be pushing a different tactic: let the
price fall and put high-cost producers out of business. That
should soon crimp supply, causing prices to rise.
There are signs that such a shake-out is already under way.
The share prices of firms that specialise in shale oil have been
swooning. Many of them are up to their derricks in debt. Even
before the oil price started falling, mostwere investing more in
new wells than they were making from their existing ones.
With their revenues now dropping fast, they will find themselves
overstretched. A rash of bankruptcies is likely. That, in
turn, would bespatter shale oil’s reputation among investors.
Even survivors may find the markets closed for some time,
forcing them to rein in theirexpenditure to match the cash they
generate from selling oil. Since shale-oil wells are short-lived
(output can fall by 60-70% in the first year), any slowdown in
investment will quickly translate into fallingproduction.
This shake-out will be painful. But in the long run the shale
industry’s future seems assured. Fracking, in which a mixture
ofwater, sand and chemicals is injected into shale formations
to release oil, is a relatively young technology, and it is still
making big gains in efficiency. IHS, a research firm, reckons the
cost ofa typical projecthas fallen from $70 perbarrel produced
to $57 in the past year, as oilmen have learned how to drill
wells faster and to extract more oil from each one.
The firms thatweather the current storm will have masses
more shale to exploit. Drilling is just beginning (and may now
be cut back) in the Niobrara formation in Colorado, for example,
and the Mississippian Lime along the border between
Oklahoma and Kansas. Nor need shale oil be a uniquely
American phenomenon: there is similar geology all around
the world, from China to the Czech Republic. Although no other
country has quite the same combination of eager investors,
experienced oilmen and pliable bureaucrats, the riches on offermust
eventually induce shale-oil exploration elsewhere.
Most important of all, investments in shale oil come in convenientlysmall
increments. The bigconventional oilfields that
have not yet been tapped tend to be in inaccessible spots, deep
belowthe ocean, high in the Arctic, or both. America’s Exxon
Mobil and Russia’s Rosneft recently spent two months and
$700m drilling a single well in the Kara Sea, north of Siberia.
Although they found oil, developing it will take years and cost
billions. Bycontrast, a shale-oil well can be drilled in as little as
a week, at a cost of $1.5m. The shale firms know where the
shale deposits are and it is pretty easy to hire newrigs; the only
question is how many wells to drill. The whole business becomes
a bit more like manufacturing drinks: whenever the
world is thirsty, you crankup the bottlingplant.
Sheikh out
So the economics of oil have changed. The market will still be
subject to political shocks: war in the Middle East or the overdue
implosion ofVladimirPutin’s kleptocracywould send the
price soaring. But, absent such an event, the oil price should be
less vulnerable to shocks ormanipulation. Even ifthe 3m extra
b/d that the United States nowpumps out is a tiny fraction of
the 90m the world consumes, America’s shale is a genuine rival
to Saudi Arabia as the world’s marginal producer. That
should reduce the volatility not just of the oil price but also of
the world economy. Oil and finance have proved themselves
the only two industries able to tip the world into recession. At
least one of them should in future be a bit more stable.
 
fe...@delenda.net
 
-- 
Anche la Resistenza è stata oggetto di un racconto che uno studio 
ravvicinato degli eventi manda largamente in crisi. Eppure quella 
versione addomesticata dei fatti era necessaria, così come lo era la 
menzogna sabauda sul Risorgimento. (Luciano Canfora)
http://delendanet.blogspot.com
 

 $3,000 in 2013 at the pumps, might be $800 a year better off--
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Doppio sbaglio:
 
Non sei in grado di commentare
 
hai copiato integralmente un articolo dell'Economist. Se segnalato rischi guai.

 hai copiato integralmente un articolo dell'Economist. Se segnalato rischi guai.
 
ha citato la fonte, rimbamba
-- 
Credere è penetrare nelle viscere di quel che ci limitavamo a sapere.
Nicolas Gomez Davila, Tra poche parole


 
E non ho nemmeno pagato la copia dell'Economist in questione, figurati..
 
fe...@delenda.net
 
-- 
Anche la Resistenza č stata oggetto di un racconto che uno studio 
ravvicinato degli eventi manda largamente in crisi. Eppure quella 
versione addomesticata dei fatti era necessaria, cosě come lo era la 
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Non conta, Italiota. Dei media globali anglosassoni non si puo' copiare piu' di un paragrafo, a fine didattici.
 
Qui siamo alla violazione di copyright da parte del Nazi. Pero' capisco l'assist del neofascio da subcultura spagnoleggiante.

 E non ho nemmeno pagato la copia dell'Economist in questione, figurati..
 
Evidentemente un nazi di provincia non puo' che ignorare la netiquette globale, O sbaglio?
Scommetto pero' che alcuni giornali italiani e inglesi che fanno parte dello stesso circuito, hanno studi legali in comune, tsk,tsk..


 
de minimo non cvrat praetor... <ya-aaaawmmmhh>
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