Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Nouriel Roubini: Italy a ‘Tsunami’ Risk

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100536403
 
 
Nouriel Roubini: Italy a ‘Tsunami’ Risk
 
Published: Friday, 8 Mar 2013 | 2:44 AM ET
By: Reported by Ross Westgate; Written by Shai Ahmed & Holly Ellyatt
 
The euro zone is undergoing serious socio-political fragmentation which 
could lead to further de-stabilization in the bloc, Nouriel Roubini 
warned Friday.
 
Speaking at the Ambrosetti Workshop in Italy, Roubini, renowned for his 
pessimistic economic forecasts said the political situation in Italy was 
a "tsunami" risk and was a reflection of the broader problems facing the 
currency bloc.
 
"In Italy there's the beginning of a political storm. The result of the 
Italian elections signal that the majority of people are against 
austerity and not just in Italy also in Lisbon half a million people 
were in the streets and 25 percent unemployment in Greece and Spain, 50 
percent amongst young people and there is restlessness," Roubini said.
 
Italy's election last month failed to give any party an outright 
majority and so far the leading center-left bloc has been unable to 
muster up a coalition government.
 
Roubini, the co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, added 
that the most likely scenario was for new elections in Italy within six 
months but this would bring economic gloom.
 
"In this time the economy will get worse given the political 
uncertainty, less investment, less job hiring and less consumption. 
There's a meaningful chance that the new [political] forces in Italy, 
whatever combination there is, these will be significantly against 
austerity and then we'll get a clash between Italy and Germany and the 
ECB," he said.
 
However, he said a replay of the Greece scenario which reached a crucial 
point last year with serious fears of a euro exit would not affect Italy 
because of its leverage within the euro zone.
 
"Italy is not Greece and it has leverage within the euro zone and can 
credibly threaten Germany by saying that if there is no loosening of 
conditionality things could become implosive and [it could potentially] 
exit from the euro zone," Roubini said.
 
(Read More: Italy's Grillo Calls Bersani 'Dead Man Talking')
He added that with these factors brewing the ECB would'loosen up' policy 
within the next few months but this would not be enough to avert a 
crisis in Italy.
 
On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi sounded confident on Italy and 
failed to provide any reassurance to the markets. He said markets had 
reverted back to where they were before the elections and that Rome's 
fiscal adjustment would continue on auto pilot.
 
Echoing the negative outlook for Italy, however, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a 
former European Central Bank (ECB) board member and visiting scholar at 
Harvard University cautioned that financial markets were underpricing 
the risk of Italy.
 
"To some extent, the market doesn't really understand what's going on in 
Italy. They think that the government is going to be created in the next 
few days and have a majority but things are much more complicated."
 
Italian ten-year bond yields rose slightly after the elections on 
February 24 and 25, but have fallen back to levels seen before the polls 
in recent days. Meanwhile, European shares have brushed off worries over 
Italy, with the FTSEurofirst 300 rising 1.8 percent this week.
 
"Italy has not been growing for over 15 years and we are back to the GDP 
per capita levels that we saw in 1992 and 1993, so this is the worst 
performance in an advanced economy. This is because the [reforms to 
the]labor market, goods and products market and liberalization have not 
been done,"Bini Smaghi said.
 
"My fear is that immobility in the political sphere is going to create 
more economic woes than expected," he added.
 
According to him, investor sentiment could quickly become negative as 
reform measures are delayed, though the "market pressure has yet tocome."
-- 
Namib
.....
- God will take care of you. Whatever you need, God will give it to you.
- I need a shave. Am I next?
(Tom Kromer)

 been done,"Bini Smaghi said.
 
Bini Smaghi e' un coglione qualsiasi ma attesta che da quando c'e' Silvio 
disastro.
 
 


 
Ma quali riforme coglione, quelli che le hanno fatte sono nella merda quanto 
se non piu' di noi.
 
Torna alle elementari. 
 
 

 Nouriel Roubini: Italy a ‘Tsunami’ Risk
 
"Amici dell'Italia" sempre più vicina... :-)