Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale
Titolo: Russian Envoy Meets Syrian Leaders as Fighting Continues

Cosa ha in mente lo scaltro Erdogan?  Perché appoggia il piano eversivo 
libyan style contro il regime siriano?  Deve avere una regione 
importante per farlo, per associare la Turchia al piano occidentale, dal 
momento che, probabilmente, questo gli costerà una quota di consenso 
interno.
La mia ipotesi è che stia cercando di ritagliare per la Turchia un ruolo 
egemone nell'area.  Se cadesse Assad la Siria probabilmente cadrebbe nel 
caos, e il paese diverrebbe un attore irrilevante nel teatro 
mediorientale, così come è accaduto alla Libia.
Dal punto di vista strettamente geopolitico la Turchia non ha alcun 
interesse a che il mondo arabo abbia una personalità forte e unitaria 
che lo rappresenti.  E' evidente quindi che la scomparsa di un soggetto 
politico come la Siria di Assad costituisce per essa un netto guadagno 
in termini apertura di nuovo spazio politico all'interno del mondo 
arabo.  Certamente se Assad cade, e in attesa che si decida la sorte 
dell'Egitto, a dare voce al mondo arabo rimarrebbero i Saud e una 
congrega di emiri e sceicchi seduti sul petrolio.
A quel punto la Turchia, quale paese islamico, potrebbe espandere la sua 
influenza riempiendo il vuoto creato.  E' una ipotesi provvisoria, 
ovviamente.
 
------------------------------------------------------
Russian Envoy Meets Syrian Leaders as Fighting Continues
 
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Russia’s foreign minister reported a “very productive 
visit” on Tuesday in Damascus with Syria’s top leaders in a meeting on 
the deepening 11-month-old political uprising in that country, as 
thousands of pro-government Syrians lined the capital’s streets waving 
Russian flags of welcome.
 
Russia, along with China, vetoed an Arab League-backed resolution at the 
United Nations Security Council on Saturday that called on President 
Bashar al-Assad to delegate some powers as part of a plan to defuse the 
crisis, which is increasingly resembling a civil war. Rebuffing harsh 
criticism from the resolution’s sponsors and Western critics of Mr. 
Assad, the Russians insisted that the resolution amounted to outside 
interference in Syria’s affairs.
 
At the same time, sensitive to the perception that Russia, Mr. Assad’s 
strongest foreign backer, had given him a green light to violently crush 
his political opponents, the Kremlin sent its foreign minister, Sergey 
V. Lavrov, and Mikhail Fradkov, the head of Moscow’s foreign 
intelligence service, to Syria on Tuesday. The Russians said they had a 
proposal that could end the crisis but declined to divulge its substance.
 
With the collapse of diplomatic efforts at the Security Council, the 
Russian overture, however tepid, appeared to be one of the last avenues 
of engagement left. Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said 
his country would seek to draft a new initiative, but few details were 
forthcoming.
 
“We have had a very productive visit with the leadership of Syria,” Mr. 
Lavrov said after his meeting with Mr. Assad, according to Russia’s Ria 
Novosti news service. “We have confirmed our preparedness to facilitate 
a rapid end to the crisis based on the positions set out in the Arab 
League initiative. In particular, the president of Syria gave assurance 
that he is fully committed to an end to violence, no matter its source.”
 
Mr. Lavrov also said that Mr. Assad was prepared to hold talks with 
representatives of Syria’s opposition, which is still deeply divided. 
“It is clear that efforts for ending the violence should be accompanied 
by dialogue between political forces,” he said. “Today we received 
confirmation from the president of Syria that he is prepared to 
cooperate in this effort.”
 
Further details of the discussion were not disclosed, and it remained 
unclear whether Russia possessed the diplomatic clout to significantly 
influence the situation on the ground. Because of Moscow’s vocal support 
for Mr. Assad’s government, the Russians have been unable to gain the 
trust of Syria’s opposition. But it is equally uncertain whether Russian 
diplomatic efforts are sufficient to push Mr. Assad to a compromise, 
considering his repeated assertions that he is battling terrorism, not a 
popular uprising.
 
“There is the appearance of action, but there is nothing more they can 
do,” said Aleksandr I. Shumilin, director of the Center of the Analysis 
of Middle East Conflicts in Moscow.
 
“After the scandal at the Security Council, Moscow needed to find some 
way to act,” he said. “Maybe something good will come of this, but at 
the very least they will be able to say that Russia is acting and not 
sitting idly.”
 
There was no immediate comment on the meeting from Mr. Assad or from the 
voices of opposition in Syria, who have already made clear they do not 
trust the government and want Mr. Assad to step down.
 
Western diplomats were skeptical of Russia’s ability to extract any 
meaningful compromise from the Syrian leadership. The prevailing view 
among them was that the Russians believe Mr. Assad can prevail over his 
enemies — a view apparently still held by the upper echelons of the 
Syrian government.
 
“The Russians have made a bet, and I don’t know if they’re right or 
not,” a Western diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The 
Russian bet is that the Syrian government and its security forces are 
going to remain cohesive and are going to ultimately win on security 
grounds. The street will be beat into submission.”
 
Mr. Erdogan, once a strong supporter of Mr. Assad and now a vocal 
critic, told his Parliament that the veto of the Security Council 
resolution on Syria by Russia and China had given Mr. Assad a “license 
to kill,” and that Turkey would act in some fashion.
 
“We cannot remain silent on what is happening in Syria and we cannot 
turn our backs on the Syrian people,” Turkish news agencies quoted Mr. 
Erdogan as saying.
 
Thousands of cheering government supporters lined the streets of 
Damascus, welcoming the Russian delegation’s convoy. Syrian television 
showed some carrying pictures of Mr. Assad and Vladimir V. Putin, the 
Russian prime minister. Others held banners thanking Russia and China 
for their veto.
 
“Russia and China proved that they are standing with us, not like those 
Arab traitors,” said a 17-year-old high school student standing among 
the crowd, who gave his name as Ammar. “Arabs are implementing the 
American and Israeli agendas against Syria. This country will be run by 
Assad forever and no one can change him.”
 
The visit came a day after the United States temporarily closed its 
Damascus embassy in frustration with Mr. Assad, withdrawing Ambassador 
Robert S. Ford and the rest of the staff. Germany, Spain, Belgium and 
France followed Britain in recalling their ambassadors.
 
Arab Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi 
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, expelled Syrian ambassadors on 
Tuesday and recalled their ambassadors from Damascus for consultations.
 
Violence has surged the past week in Syria, in particular around the 
city of Homs, Syria’s third largest. The government pressed forward with 
its crackdown on the city for the fourth day, shelling several 
neighborhoods that have become strongholds of an insurgency made up of 
army defectors. Activists said that Syrian security forces used tanks 
and heavy machine guns in a push to recover the rebel-held districts.
 
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that at least 15 people 
were killed in the neighborhoods of Khaldiyah and Baba Amr during the 
shelling and that rebels killed four army soldiers, but the report could 
not be independently confirmed.
 
Syria’s Interior Ministry said that the assault on Homs would continue 
until all resistance is defeated, in a sign that the government believes 
that it can defeat the opposition by force. Since the start of the 
uprising, the government has maintained that it is battling armed groups 
financed from abroad who have killed thousands of police officers and 
soldiers.
 
The United Nations said in December that more than 5,400 people have 
been killed since the uprising broke out last March. Activists say 
hundreds more are believed to have been killed in this past week’s 
assault on Homs.
 
The government was also pressing ahead with crackdowns in the suburbs of 
Damascus and a restive region in northern Syria near the town of Idlib. 
The fighting in the suburbs has driven hundreds, perhaps thousands, to 
seek refuge in the capital, residents said. Five people were reported 
killed in Zabadani, a town on the Lebanese border. Most residents had 
fled the town last month, when the Syrian army tried to regain control.
 
“If we knew things were headed toward war, we would have prepared 
shelters,” said a resident there, who gave his name as Zein.
 
http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e6a0ee0e242d3dc5ea451ca913406f03
 
-- 
Sostieni Rete ECO
 
http://rete-eco.it/it/sostienici.html
 
 

 egemone nell'area.
 
Sei una volpe. Pirla, ma volpe.
 
PP

ovviamente.
 
si parlava di neo-ottomanesimo infatti.... 
 

 Cosa ha in mente lo scaltro Erdogan?
 
magari gli darebbe problemi trovarsi 1milione di profughi siriani, con
circolazioni di armi e fazionamento politico, sul proprio territorio.


Se ne parlava a sproposito.  La persona intelligente dovrebbe evitare 
accuratamente di modellare il proprio pensiero attorno a questi virus 
propagandistici. Memi, li chiamano: prodotti da qualche team 
specializzato nella guerra psicologica per orientare l'opinione pubblica 
e viziare le analisi dei maître à penser.
 
In realtà qualunque paese ambisce ad estendere la sua influenza nella 
sua area: alla Turchia ora si presenta l'occasione di farlo. 
Probabilmente intende anche porsi come garante occidentale nell'area al 
posto di Israele, che è diventata una entità troppo autonoma ed 
eccessivamente perturbante, tanto da avere condotto gli USA sulla soglia 
di un confronto militare con l'Iran estremamente rischioso.

 militare con l'Iran estremamente rischioso.
 
stai accusando la Turchia di imperialismo? :-) La Turchia garante 
occidentale al posto di Israele? :-) Bene che vada se la Turchia accettasse 
il ruolo di affiancarsi ad Israele dovremmo essere tutti più che 
soddisfatti. Ultimamente la Turchia si è leggermente calmata visto che la 
sua strategia non stava dando i successi sperati e i suoi nuovi "amici" si 
stavano dimostrando parecchio scomodi ma nulla fa pensare che desideri 
realmente accettare questo duopolio. Io penso semplicemente che stia molto 
attenta a non fare il passo più lungo della gamba in un periodo così incerto 
e mancando sostanzialmente di alleati (prima pensava di averne trovati nella 
Siria ;-)) e nell'Iran...). 
 

 pensava di averne trovati nella Siria ;-)) e nell'Iran...).
 
Il duo Davutoglu Erdogan sta bene attento a tenere la prua contro le 
onde.  Stringere certe alleanze ora significherebbe prendere il mare 
sulla fiancata, col rischio di far rovesciare la nave.  Prudenza, 
attenzione, flessibilità...


flessibilità...
 
credo si siano presi tutta una serie di sdentate negli ultimi mesi.... 
 

 credo si siano presi tutta una serie di sdentate negli ultimi mesi....
 
Stiamo parlando del nulla: di un meme propagandistico e di tue 
convinzioni fondate su non si sa cosa.  Portami qualche evidenza 
concreta di questa presunta tendenza neo-ottomana, che so: qualche base 
militare turca all'estero, e ne riparliamo.


 all'estero, e ne riparliamo.
 
stai fuggendo dalla discussione :-)