Newsgroup: it.scienza.ambiente
Titolo: Meglio abitare a Chernobyl che a Milano [anche per AlexP]

Qualcuno in questo newsgroup mi ha accusato che sempre non cito  le fonti su
cui mi baso. Vero, questo è un mio difetto. Adesso farò un discorso
basandomi *solo* su fonti reperibili anche su Internet.
A volte si pensa a Chernobyl come un disastro immane per la natura e per
l'uomo. E in parte lo è: per uno stupido errore, evitabilissimo, perderanno
inutilmente la vita ben 6.600 persone (in 85 anni).  Questo è quello che
stima l'organizzazione mondiale della sanità, studio reperibile anche su
internet all'indirizzo
http://www.iaea.org/worldatom/Programmes/Safety/Chernobyl/concls17.html
*****
Ecco una sintesi dello studio:
Campione di riferimento: 7.100.000 residenti
Effetti previsti a causa dell'incidente di Cernobyl: 6.600 morti in 85 anni
Effetti riscontrati: non riscontrabile (77 morti/anno sono troppo pochi per
essere riscontrati statisticamente)
Campione di riferimento: 200.000 liquidatori
Effetti previsti a causa dell'incidente di cernobyl: 200 moriranno di
leucemia
Effetti riscontrati: 150 dovevano già essere morti, invece ne sono morti
solo 40
*****
Ora passiamo ad altro: l'inquinamento delle nostre città. Spesso si va a
pensare lontano, in Ucraina, e non si pensa a casa nostra. Nelle nostre 8
principali città italiane, sempre secondo l'OMS, muoino 3.472 persone ogni
anno per l'inquinamento da PM10.
Mostro qui di seguito una panoramaca completa dello studio, disponibile
anche al sito
http://www.who.it/news_and_events/VPHsem200600/fact%20sheet%20OMS.htm
*****
Campione di Riferimento: Residenti a Torino, Genova, Milano, Bologna,
Firenze, Roma, Napoli, Palermo
Effetti causati dal solo inquinante PM10 (non è solo l'unico inquinante!)
Decessi riscontrati ogni anno negli adulti: 3.472
Ricoveri respiratori: 1.887
Ricoveri cardiovascolari: 2.710
Bronchite cronica neli adulti: 606
Bronchite acuta nei bambini: 31.524
Attacchi d'asma nei bambini: 29.730
*****
3.472 decessi all'anno (solo negli adulti) sono una cifra enorme. In 85 anni
farebbero 295.120, altro che i 6.600 di Chernobyl. Se poi hanno ragione
associazioni ambientaliste come gli "Amici della Terra", che in Italia
muoino 20.000 persone  all'anno a causa dell'aria inquinata (per me è un
calcolo sottostimato) in 85 anni morirebbero 1.700.000 persone!
Per quseto non riesco a comprendere l'opposizione al nucleare delle
associazioni ambientaliste.
Con la fissione nucleare si potrebbero creare  vettori di energia pulita,
quali l'idrogeno o l'olio di silano che eviterebbero in 85 anni  da 295.120
a 1.700.000 morti inutili Considerando che i reattori nucleari occidentali
sono sicurissimi non avremmo una Chernobyl. Ma se anche se per sfortuna c'e
ne
dovrebbe essere una (difficilissimo) ci guadagneremmo, come minimo 288.592
vite salvate (295.192-6.600).
Ciao a tutti
Veniero Fogliata
P.S: per AlexP: domani rispondero al tuo post anche per quanto riguarda
l'effetto serra

 
Invito tutti a leggere attentamente la relazione della OMS e trarne le
proprie conclusioni.
E qui concludo visto che finalmente avendo una fonte mi si risparmia molto
tempo e nervi.
Passo e chiudo
Zille

 vite salvate (295.192-6.600).
(hai notato come hai scritto l'ultima frase??? outlook espress ha anche un
controllo ortografico, se non lo sai :-)) )
No, tutti gli effetti negativi del nucleare si andrebbero a sommare agli
effetti dovuti a smog, emissioni varie ecc. accumulati nel tempo e l'effetto
sarebbe peggiore. Il nucleare non sostituirebbe le automobili, il
riscaldamento ecc. ma nel peggiore dei casi i suoi effetti negativi si
sommerebbero ai danni dei primi.
Comunque non è bello creare ragionamenti campati in aria su morti veri o
presunti.

 presunti.
perchè campati in aria?

 presunti.
Per il resto ti ha risposto Ethaban
Ciao
Veniero Fogliata


Se non fosse per problemi di lingua, ci andrei volentieri, c'è meno
inquinamento che in Italia (e le donne sono bellissime, questo si che mi fa
ringiovanire!)


 Veniero Fogliata
Ciao
AleX
-- 
Le antenne di Radio Vaticana provocano la leucemia
La NATO ha chiesto di poterle installare in Kossovo
                  Luttazzi  -  Marzo 2001

 Decessi riscontrati ogni anno negli adulti: 3.472
Qui invece la situazione e' diversa per arrivare a questi morti ci vuole 
un impegno costante nelle emissioni giorno per giorno, tra auto, 
riscaldamenti e industrie.
Loris Rinaldo -- OS/2 Warp 4, FP12, Java 1.1.8
PS riguardo al tuo altro post "provocatorio" dico solo che non mi sembra 
un bel passo avanti sostituire i semi petrol-dipendenti dai semi 
OGM-dipendenti. Inoltra la tua idea dei verdi al servizio dei petrolieri 
si autosmentisce nel momento in cui dichiari di aver tratto queste info 
dall'Atlante di Gaia, una pubblicazione dal chiaro stampo "Verde".
 
 

 riscaldamenti e industrie.
si certo ma queste ci sono e non le puoi eliminare "in una frazione di
secondo".

 sono meno inquinanti in assoluto.
si ma bisongerebbe anche essere un pò realistici.

 si ma bisongerebbe anche essere un pò realistici.
cioè ?



Il teleriscaldamento è possibile solo per i palazzi nelle immediate
vicinanze di una centrale (che non deve essere necessariamente essere
nucleare).
Per quanto riguarda le automobili brevetterei invece un motore a plutonio
:-))

 controllo ortografico in Italiano. Comunque mi scuso (ce ne).
Esterofilo :-))

 ha scritto nel messaggio
news:9cs2ft$fdska$1...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de...

Allora vai, Veniero, vai, la lingua te la insegnano le belle donne e
risparmi pure sulla luce di sera: tanto loro sono fluorescenti e con un po'
di permanenza potresti acquisire anche tu una bella luminescenza verdognola!
:-))))))
Per quanto riguarda la risposta seria, leggiti il post di Andrea Zille con
citata la fonte (Oms) sulla salute della popolazione di Chernobyl.


Quanto al resto, mi rimetto alla risposta di Etheban, su quest'ultimo
particolare volevo aggiungere: non esiste neppure nessuno favorevole a
ricevere assegni a vuoto, eppure a molti capita, ovvio che siano ingannati.
Allo stesso modo, che molti ambientalisti, sono ingannati, se non consideri
i miei calcoli, compra il libro: Ad Occhi bendati" di Giancarlo Lagostena,
ed De Ferrari, Genova. Avrai l'esatta misura di quanti pannelli solari
occorrerebbero per avere sufficente energia. Capirai, che certe alternative
al petrolio, sono inventate dai petrolieri.
Ciao
Veniero.

 wrote in message
news:4pcLkQ4ttLOZ-pn2-dynCw1CHEbp2@localhost...

Anche qui, non mi resta che ribadire quanto afferma Etheban, una centrale
nucleare, non esplode per un errore di un secondo, praticamente funziona
come quelle a petrolio, come quelle, i tubi potrebbero surriscaldarsi,
aumentare la pressione, e scoppiare Ovviamente poi in quella nucleare ci
sarebbe poi una fuga radioattiva. Ma in pratica, non capita mai, ne in
quelle a petrolio, ne nelle nucleari. (esclusa naturalmente la Russia)
Quanto poi all'atlante di Gaia, sono contento che l'apprezzi. Naturalmente i
petrolieri, non hanno bisogno di corrompere tutti i verdi, basta foraggiare
qualcuno, che poi sul fertile terreno, spande paure ataviche, che sono
sempre molto remunerative per i signori del petrolio.
Ciao
 Veniero.

 Veniero.


 
dipende dai punti di vista...
dal sito legaambiente
...il prof. Demidtchik, oncologo di fama mondiale, che ci ha fatto visitare
il suo reparto in cui sono ricoverati bambini affetti da tumore tiroideo
operati più volte a distanza di poco tempo per l'aggressività della
patologia tumorale. In questo caso la correlazione scientifica tra tumore
tiroideo e contaminazione radioattiva è ampiamente dimostrata, mentre per
altri tipi di patologie bisogna aspettare che un maggior numero di casi (e
di morti) rendano il dato più significativo per la letteratura medica. Lo
stesso Demidtchik ci ha fornito gli ultimi dati in suo possesso per quanto
riguarda le malattie legate alla tiroide. L'incidenza del cancro della
tiroide nei bambini della sola regione del Gomel rappresenta la percentuale
più alta del mondo (11,7 casi ogni 100.000 bambini), ma oltre all'aumento
dei casi di tumore tiroideo, si registra un progressivo aumento di patologie
quali gozzo, tiroidite, adenomi. Dei 397 bambini colpiti da tumore tiroideo
dal 1986 al 1994, oltre il 65% aveva un'età compresa tra 0 e 4 anni, il 32%
aveva invece un'età tra 5 e 9 anni, il 3% aveva tra i 10 e 14 anni. Queste
cifre impressionanti sono state riconfermate dal recente convegno
dell'O.M.S. svoltosi a Ginevra nello scorso novembre. Durante i giorni del
meeting, al quale hanno partecipato 700 esperti di tutto il mondo, è stato
presentato un rapporto sugli effetti dell'incidente di Cernobyl.
Quanto è emerso in questo importante appuntamento non è certo confortante
per il futuro delle popolazioni che abitano nelle zone contaminate. Ad oggi,
infatti, i morti per cause collegate all'incidente nucleare del 1986 sono
7.000, ma il livello di contaminazione della acque e del terreno porta a
pensare che questa cifra sia destinata ad aumentare vertiginosamente nei
prossimi anni e per buona parte del secolo che sta per iniziare. Senza
contare che il sarcofago che racchiude il quarto reattore sta cedendo in
seguito all'infiltrazione di acqua all'interno dello stesso. ...
Ciao Zille

 Veniero.
Forse anche questo articolo da qualche idea.
http://cnn1.cnnitalia.it/2000/MONDO/europa/04/26/Chernobyl/index.html
ciao Zille

 Veniero.
Rimediamo subito.
Da leggere! Mi raccomando attentamente. Non commento perche' sono stanco e
non voglio influenzare i giudizi di nessuno. La cosa finisce qua perche' non
ho proprio voglia di riprendere post gia' abbondantemente e prolungatamente
disquisiti.
http://www.nea.fr/html/rp/chernobyl/chernobyl.html
Ciao Zille

 nucleare, non esplode per un errore di un secondo, praticamente 
e invece e' successo cosi', o se vogliamo essere precisi una serie di 
manovre azzardate/sbagliate ... vogliamo esagerare? 
diciamo per un errori della durata complessiva di 100 ore abbiamo 85 anni 
di problemi!
NOn c'e' nessun errore di progettazione altrimenti la centrale sarebbe 
saltatain aria al primo avvio. E d'altra parte a funzionato bene per piu' 
di 15 anni (mi pare) e altre analgoghe continuano a funzionare tutt'oggi.
Il fatto che siano stati trascurati i piu' elementari sistemi di sicurezza
non e' un errore di progettazione ma *una scelta*.
Non voglio trascinare polemiche voglio solo dire che il nuc e' *piu'* 
pericoloso punto e basta. Perche un solo evento catasftrofico produce 
conseguenze a lungo termine. Perche' *ha bisgono* di piu' sistemi di 
sicurezza ....
Con questo *non* sono assolutamente contrario al nucleare.
ciao

 :-))
No, ma con l'energia prodotta dalle centrali nucleari si potrebbero creare
combustibili più puliti della benzina, come ad  esempio l'olio di silano e
l'idrogeno.
Saluti
Veniero


Il documento riporta dati simili al documento su cui mi ero basato.
Da far notare inoltre la seguente frase:
The history of the modern industrial world has been affected on many
occasions by catastrophes comparable or even more severe than the Chernobyl
accident. Nevertheless, this accident, due not only to its severity but
especially to the presence of ionising radiation, had a significant impact
on human society.
Saluti
Veniero


Come al solito i giornalisti uniscono dati veri a dati a quelli falsi. Ecco
un'affermazione vera:
****
"Il numero esatto delle persone che con buona probabilità saranno colpite da
seri problemi di salute a causa dell'esposizione alle radiazioni non si
conoscerà prima del 2016", ha detto il segretario generale delle Nazioni
Unite Kofi Annan.
****
Vero, è come la scoperta dell'acqua calda. Oggio conosciamo soltato le
stime, nel 2016 ne conosceremo esattamente il numero, poichè basterà
contare
Ora prendiamo un'altra frase
****
sono salite a oltre 15.000 e che in Ucraina circa tre milioni e mezzo di
persone sono state colpite da malattie o da handicap. Fra di loro quasi un
milione e mezzo sono bambini.
****
Questa è una frase palesemente falsa. 15.000 morti. Chi lo ha detto, sono
usciti fuori dal magico cilindro? (o forse i giornalisti non sanno che gli
uomini non sono immortali e che muoiono anche per altre cause?)
E poi: 3 milioni e mezzo di persone sono state colpite da malattie o da
handicap. A che malattie si riferiscono, al raffreddore? ;-)
N.B.: In ucraina, in cambio della chiusura di Cernobyl, apriranno ben 2
altre centrali nucleari nuove (pagate dagli occidentali). Ma come, con 3
milioni e mezzo di malati....

infatti, i morti per cause collegate all'incidente nucleare del 1986 sono
7.000,
Chi lo dice? Secondo la CNN i morti sono 15.000, secondo legambiente
7.000... mi sa che i giornalisti e gli ambientalisti più che basarsi su dati
reali sparino cifre a caso....
Saluti
Veniero.

 non e' un errore di progettazione ma *una scelta*.
A1. Errori di concezione
A11. Il nocciolo di questo tipo di reattore è instabile sotto i 700 MWth
(poco meno del 25% della potenza nominale). In breve, a bassa potenza, ogni
tendenza all'incremento viene amplificata rapidamente ed automaticamente: il
reattore diviene difficilmente controllabile. Questo aspetto, specifico dei
reattori RBMK, è estremamente pericoloso e fortunatamente è assente in tutti
i reattori di concezione non sovietica e nei reattori PWR sovietici (VVER).
In tutti i reattori, esclusi gli RMBK, ogni reazione nucleare che tende all'
incremento viene, per le caratteristiche del reattore, automaticamente
rallentata. L'esplosione di Cernobyl è avvenuta, precisamente, nel corso di
una prova a bassa potenza, ossia in un contesto di instabilità in quel
reattore. Gli ingegneri russi conoscevano questa instabilità e così gli
esperti francesi e britannici: un monito era già stato lanciato -
inutilmente - al potere sovietico ben prima dell'incidente di Cernobyl.
Immaginatevi un autobus che rischia di uscir di strada in montagna con un
volante che non risponde più!!
A12. L'inserimento completo delle barre di controllo del RMBK è lento:
richiede una ventina di secondi (< 2 secondi in tutti gli altri reattori del
mondo, eccetto i RMBK) e ciò è troppo lento per impedire l'incremento di
potenza del nocciolo allorché stia funzionando nella sua regione di
instabilità. Le barre di arresto di emergenza ad inserimento rapido non
esistono nei reattori RMBK. Immaginatevi che i freni dell'autobus non
forniscano tutta la loro potenza che20 secondi dopo il colpo sui pedali dell
'autista!!
A13. Le barre di controllo, costituite di carburo di boro, hanno all'
estremità una punta in carbonio che, nella fase iniziale di inserzione delle
barre inizia ad aggiungere reattività. invece di diminuirla! Come se la
prima risposta al colpo sui pedali dell'autista fosse un'accelerata del
motore dell'autobus a piena potenza per qualche secondo!! Questo fenomeno
pericoloso era stato riscontrato nel 1983 (3 anni prima di Cernobyl) su un
reattore RMBK della centrale di Ignalina.
A14. La funzione di moderatore - rallentamento dei neutroni - Ë assicurata
da 600 tonnellate di grafite. Qui non si tratta proprio di un errore di
concezione ma piuttosto di una debolezza: la grafite molto calda si infiamma
all'aria libera, l'incendio vaporizza i radionuclidi contenuti nel reattore:
la loro dispersione nell'atmosfera viene quindi fortemente favorita. I
reattori occidentali ad acqua pressurizzata e ad acqua bollente non
contengono né grafite (carbonio) né sostanze infiammabili.
A15. I reattori RMBK non posseggono né dispositivi di purificazione delle
emissioni gassose né edificio di contenimento: un simile edificio avrebbe
almeno, nel peggiore dei casi, diminuito notevolmente e rallentato la
fuoriuscita di radioattività nell'ambiente. Questo tipo di contenimento
protegge i reattori di tutto il mondo, compresi i PWR ultima generazione
(VVER 1000) dell'ex Unione Sovietica e dei suoi ex-satelliti. Il reattore
incidentato di TMI ne era equipaggiato: non vi fu fuoriuscita significativa
di radioattività. Privo di questo contenimento, il reattore RMBK è come un
autobus senza carrozzeria: queste evidentemente è una protezione maggiore,
indipensabile.
Per riassumere, abbiamo un autobus senza carrozzeria, dove il volante non
risponde più e nel quale il sistema di frenatura lancia il veicolo a piena
velocità per qualche secondo, prima di rallentarlo efficacemente, una
ventina di secondi dopo. ossia ben dopo che il veicolo sia finito nel fosso
o contro un muro.
Saluti
Veniero

 Saluti


 Veniero


 AleX
Ciao
Veniero.

 ah, i misteri di Veniero .........
:-)
Saluti
Veniero.

In 9d47op$g4l07$
4...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,


Come si fa a dirti che sbagli se dici che 2 + 2 fa 4 !
Il fatto e' che non ragioni affatto su le basi teoriche su cui poggiano sti
calcoletti.
Zille

 gatti, al fianco del cavallo, tutto lo sforzo lo deve fare l'equino.
o l'asino, dipende


ottima risposta e ben dettagliata....

Non mi sembra che l'eolico in germania sia il 20%. Ecco un estratto
dell'articolo: 
http://www.verdinrete.it/verditoscana/fabionews/27aprile.html
"Nei primi tre mesi del 2001, la capacita' energetica eolica installata in
Germania e' cresciua del 4.9% (o 298 MegaWatt), raggiungendo la potenza
installata totale di 6,400 MW."
Non per fare il critico ma 6.400 MW sono un po' pochini per rappresentare il
20% (l'italia secondo il GRTN consuma sui 50.000 MW, e la Germania,
probabilmente ne consuma di più...)
Saluti
Veniero

Un articolo con il numero verde del ministero dell'ambiente per avere
informazioni sull'iniziativa.
Zille
I MEDIA TORNANO A PARLARE DI ENERGIA SOLARE
Al via il programma Tetti Fotovoltaici ed altre iniziative sul solare.
Mentre sarà possibile, a breve, realizzare impianti sugli edifici
pubblici, i privati dovranno ancora attendere qualche mese. Interessante
il potenziale della domanda di solare in Italia.
Finalmente si parte! E’ con questo "slogan" che il 7 marzo è stato dato
l'annuncio della partenza del programma nazionale "Tetti Fotovoltaici",
atteso da oltre 3 anni, e di altri programmi nazionali sul solare, in
una conferenza stampa tenuta presso il Ministero dell'Ambiente. A
presentare il programma, il Ministro dell'Ambiente Bordon, il Direttore
Generale dello stesso Ministero, Silvestrini, il Direttore Generale
dell'ENEA Tedeschi, il premio Nobel Rubbia, per telefono da Ginevra, e
Beppe Grillo, testimonial d’eccezione del programma.
L'annuncio ha riacceso l'interesse nei media. Mai si erano visti tanti
moduli solari in Tv come in questi giorni. Anche se non sempre con
esattezza, le notizie riportate dalla stampa e la presenza sugli schermi
di poche immagini e parole sull’argomento hanno finito per stimolare la
curiosità di tantissimi cittadini, desiderosi di conoscere come fare per
installare un tetto solare. Il numero verde (800 466 366) e gli stessi
operatori, imprese ed amministrazioni locali, sono stati sommersi da
migliaia di domande sulla tecnologia, su come ottenere gli incentivi e a
quali condizioni. Su questi ultimi due aspetti sarà possibile rispondere
puntualmente non appena saranno resi pubblici i bandi contenenti i
dettagli operativi (a pag. 8 informazioni a cura dello stesso
Ministero). Quelli destinati ai privati e alle imprese, saranno emessi
dalle Regioni, secondo le informazioni date dal Ministero dell'Ambiente,
prevedibilmente entro il mese di luglio 2001. Invece, i bandi destinati
alle amministrazioni pubbliche usciranno subito, entro la fine di marzo,
e daranno l'avvio alla prima fase del programma che prevede
l’installazione di tetti fotovoltaici su alcuni edifici pubblici
trasformati, dunque, in "vetrine" di un nuovo modo di produrre energia
elettrica.
Questo interesse diffuso nel nostro paese testimonia di un elevata
domanda potenziale. Allora ci chiediamo quali effetti potrebbe innescare
una seria campagna di informazione sulla possibilità per le famiglie o
le imprese di installare sui propri edifici sistemi solari fotovoltaici
per la produzione di energia elettrica o sistemi solari termici per il
riscaldamento dell’acqua? Anche molti di coloro che lavorano in questo
campo sottovalutano la crescente maturità ambientale dei consumatori e
l’enorme potenziale della domanda che esiste in un paese come il nostro
che ha un parco edilizio costituito per oltre il 55% da abitazioni mono
e bifamiliari, dove questi sistemi potrebbero essere installati senza
eccessivi problemi impiantistici.
C’è bisogno, però, di un'informazione accurata. Questa potenziale
domanda di tecnologie solari deve essere guidata con adeguate campagne
di informazione, come succede anche in altri paesi industrializzati. Il
ruolo dei media è quindi fondamentale e vorremmo che non fosse
episodico. Come ha osservato lo stesso Grillo nel corso della conferenza
stampa, è necessario dare lo spazio e il tempo adeguati a questi
argomenti. Fortunatamente constatiamo il crescente impegno da parte di
tutti a diffondere il più possibile informazioni dettagliate sui
programmi in corso e sulle modalità per accedervi. E’ importante evitare
di creare attese superiori a quanto sia concretamente possibile
realizzare, in quanto le aspettative deluse potrebbero danneggiare il
settore del solare, come è accaduto in passato.
La partenza di questo programma di incentivazione potrà risultare
determinante per organizzare e sviluppare meglio il settore
dell’offerta. Le esperienze dei paesi più avanzati nel settore hanno
dimostrato che una maggiore crescita delle installazioni originata da
semplici e validi programmi di sostegno, oltre a ridurre i costi della
tecnologia, consente di migliorare nel tempo l’offerta di una gamma di
prodotti e servizi, sempre più adattati alle esigenze degli utenti, di
costruire una più ampia rete di distribuzione costruita, anche con una
maggiore formazione e accettazione da parte degli installatori. Una
crescita del settore industriale e commerciale potrà influire solo
positivamente sulla domanda, creando così un circolo virtuoso ed
assicurando all’energia solare un ruolo nella tecnologia edilizia del
futuro.
-- 
Posted from 
sarmento.eng.uminho.pt
 [193.136.14.252] 
via Mailgate.ORG Server - 
http://www.Mailgate.ORG

In 9d3r27$g66tt$
2...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,


 e queste altre frasi?
The organisational aspects of treating large numbers of very ill patients
also presented significant problems. Intensive nursing care and monitoring
had to be provided 24 hours a day in small units. Personnel had to be taught
new techniques of care and patient handling, and a large number of
diagnostic samples had to be examined. The logistic requirements of medical
handling needed to be well-established before any therapeutic programme
could be run efficiently.
Late health effects
There have been many reports of an increase in the incidence of some
diseases as a result of the Chernobyl accident. In fact, the accident has,
according to present knowledge, given rise to an increase in the incidence
of thyroid cancers. Also, it has had negative psychological consequences. As
far as other diseases are concerned, the scientific community has not been
able to relate those to the effects of ionising radiation. However, large
research projects have been conducted and are under way to further study the
matter. For example, the WHO (WH95) established the International Programme
on the Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident (IPHECA). This programme
initially concentrated on pilot projects involving leukaemia, thyroid
diseases, oral health in Belarus, mental health in children irradiated
before birth and the development of epidemiological registries. The pilot
phase came to an end in 1994 and, as a result of the findings, efforts are
underway to develop long-term permanent programmes involving thyroid
diseases, the accident recovery workers, dose reconstruction and guidance to
the public in the event of an accident. It is expected that these new
projects will provide further insight into any future health effects.
An estimate (An88) of the total lifetime cancers which could be expected in
Europe as a result of the accident suggested an increase of about 0.01 per
cent above their natural incidence. Another assessment placed the increase
in cancer incidence at 0.004 per cent in the Northern hemisphere, a lower
percentage increase due probably to including the large population of the
whole hemisphere (Pa89). These predictions are remarkably similar and
support the view that the average doses to the general population of the
Northern hemisphere were so low that only fractions of a percent increases
in cancer incidence could be expected in this population (Pe88, Re87). Large
parts of the Northern hemisphere, such as North America (Hu88, Br88), Asia
and Siberia, were not significantly contaminated and doses were
inconsequential. Therefore, the following sections focus on the late health
effects in the population of the contaminated regions of the former Soviet
Union. 
In the International Chernobyl Project organised by the IAEA (IA91), field
studies were undertaken in the latter half of 1990 on the permanent
residents of the rural settlements with a surface caesium contamination of
greater than 555 kBq/m2, and on control settlements of 2,000 to 50,000
persons, using an age matched study design. Seven contaminated and six
control settlements were chosen by the medical team of the Chernobyl
Project. Since all persons could not be examined, representative samples
were taken from various age groups. In all, 1,356 people were examined, and
the aim was to examine about 250 from each of the larger settlements. Three
medical teams each spent two weeks conducting medical examinations to
provide the data for these assessments.
The medical examinations were quite comprehensive, and the general
conclusions reached were that there were no health abnormalities which could
be attributed to radiation exposure, but that there were significant
non-radiation related health disorders which were similar in both
contaminated and control settlements. The accident had had substantial
negative psychological consequences which were compounded by the
socio-economic and political changes occurring in the former Soviet Union.
The official data provided to the medical teams was incomplete and difficult
to evaluate, and were not detailed enough to exclude or confirm the
possibility of an increase in the incidence of some tumour types. On this
subject, it was suggested in 1991 that the incidence of cancer in Ukraine
showed no large increase even in the most contaminated areas (Pr91).
The International Chernobyl Project Report (IA91) suggested that the
reported high thyroid doses in some children were such that there could be a
statistically detectable increase in the incidence of future thyroid
tumours. The Chernobyl Project team finally concluded that, on the basis of
the doses estimated by the team and the currently accepted radiation risk
estimates, future increases over the natural incidence of cancer or
hereditary defects would be difficult if not impossible to discern, even
with very large and well-designed long-term epidemiological studies.
However, it should be remembered that this health survey took place four
years after the accident, before any increase in cancer incidence might be
expected and reflects the status of the people examined in a few months of
1990. The sample size was also criticised as being too small.
Nevertheless, the dose estimates generally accepted indicate that, with the
exception of thyroid disease, it is unlikely that the exposure would lead to
discernible radiation effects in the general population. Many predictions of
the future impact of the accident on the health of populations have been
made, all of which, apart from thyroid disease, indicate that the overall
effect will be small when compared with the natural incidence and therefore
not expected to be discernible (An88, Be87, Hu87, Mo87, De87, Be87).
Thyroid cancer 
Early in the development of the Chernobyl accident, it became obvious that
the radioiodines were contributing significant thyroid doses (Il90),
especially to children, and the then Soviet authorities made every effort
not only to minimise doses, but also to record the thyroid doses as
accurately as possible. The results of these measurements and dose
reconstruction assessments indicated that some groups in the population
received high doses to their thyroids, and that an increase in thyroid
abnormalities, including cancer, was a very real possibility in the future.
This was particularly true for children in the contaminated regions in
Belarus, northern Ukraine and the Bryansk and Kaluga regions of the Russian
Federation. These were not inconsequential thyroid doses and, as early as
1986, it was predicted by experts from the Soviet Union that the thyroid
would be the target organ most likely to show evidence of radiation effects,
especially an increased incidence of benign and malignant tumours.
It was known from previous studies of largely external irradiation of the
thyroid that an increase in thyroid tumours tended to appear six to eight
years following irradiation, and continue for more than twenty years after
exposure, particularly in children. What was not expected was that thyroid
abnormalities would already become detectable about four years after the
accident. At the same time, the current conventional wisdom was that
internal radioiodine exposure was less carcinogenic than external
irradiation of the thyroid. It was estimated that the incidence of thyroid
cancers in children, defined as those diagnosed between the ages of 0 and
14, might increase by about 5 per cent, and in adults by about 0.9 per cent
over the next 30 years. As will be seen, a substantial increase has already
been detected in the more contaminated regions. A determined effort was made
to estimate doses, record the data, initiate medical examinations and follow
the cohorts already identified as being most at risk.
In Ukraine, more than 150,000 examinations were conducted by special
dosimetric teams, and a realistic estimate of the collective thyroid dose of
64,000 person-Sv has been made, leading to a projection of 300 additional
thyroid cancers (Li93a). In the contaminated regions of Russia, namely
Bryansk, Tula and Orel, it was predicted that an excess thyroid cancer total
of 349 would appear in a population of 4.3 million (Zv93). This represents
an increase of 3 to 6 per cent above the spontaneous rate.
A programme to monitor the thyroid status of exposed children in Belarus was
set up in Minsk in May/June 1986. The highest doses were received by the
evacuated inhabitants of the Hoiniki rayon (district) in the Gomel oblast.
In the course of this study, it was noted that the numbers of thyroid
cancers in children were increasing in some areas. For Belarus as a whole
(WH90, Ka92, Wi94), there has been a significantly increasing trend in
childhood thyroid cancer incidence since 1990 (Pa94). It was also noted that
this increase is confined to regions in the Gomel and Brest oblasts, and no
significant increase has been noted in the Mogilev, Minsk or Vitebsk areas
where the radioactive iodine contamination is assessed to have been lower.
Over 50 per cent of all the cases are from the Gomel oblast.
For the eight years prior to 1986, only five cases of childhood thyroid
cancer were seen in Minsk, which is the main Belarussian centre for thyroid
cancer diagnosis and treatment on children (De94). From 1986 to 1989, 2 to 6
cases of thyroid cancer in children were seen annually in Minsk. In 1990,
the number jumped to 29, to 55 in 1991, then to 67 in 1992. By the end of
1994 the total had reached over 300 in Belarus. Nearly 50 per cent of the
early (1992) thyroid cancers appeared in children who were aged between one
and four years at the time of the accident.
The histology of the cancers has shown that nearly all were papillary
carcinomata (Ni94) and that they were particularly aggressive, often with
prominent local invasion and distant metastases, usually to the lungs. This
has made the treatment of these children less successful than expected,
whether undertaken in Minsk or in specialised centres in Europe. In all,
about 150,000 children in Belarus had thyroid uptake measurements following
the accident. Other data from Ukraine and Russia show a similar, but not as
pronounced, increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer since
1987. 
The increase in Belarus was confirmed by the final report of an EC Expert
Panel (EC93) convened in 1992 to investigate the reported increase. In 1992
the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer in Belarus as a whole was
estimated to be 2.77 per 100,000, whereas in the Gomel and Brest oblasts it
was 8.8 and 4.76 respectively. This increased incidence was not confined to
children, as a larger number of adult cases was registered in Belarus and in
Ukraine (WH94). 
There is some difficulty in comparing the numbers quoted by the health
authorities of the former Soviet Union with previous incidence statistics,
as previous data collection was not sufficiently rigorous. However, in
Belarus all cases of childhood thyroid cancer have been confirmed since 1986
by international review of the histology, and, because of more rigid
criteria for data collection, reliance can be placed on accuracy and
completeness. An attempt to review incidence estimates was made in the
above-mentioned EC Report (EC93). These experts confirmed that the incidence
of childhood thyroid cancer (0-14 y) prior to the accident in Belarus
(between 0 and 0.14/100,000/y) was similar to that reported by other cancer
registries. This indicates that the data collection in Belarus was adequate.
They noted that it jumped to 2.25/100,000/y in 1991, about a twenty-fold
increase. 
When this increase was first reported, it was very quickly pointed out
(Be92) that any medical surveillance programme introduced would apparently
increase the incidence by revealing occult disease and rectifying
misdiagnoses. While this may account for some of the increase (Ro92), it
cannot possibly be the sole cause, as the increase is so large and many of
the children presented not with occult disease, but with clinical evidence
of thyroid and/or metastatic disease. In fact, only 12 per cent of the
childhood thyroid cancers were discovered by ultrasound screening alone in
Belarus (WH95). In addition, subsequent examination by serial section of the
thyroids of persons coming to autopsy in Belarus have confirmed that the
number of occult thyroid cancers is similar to that found in other studies
(Fu93) and showed none of the aggressive characteristics found in the
childhood cancers presenting in life (Fu92).
The most recent published rates of childhood thyroid cancer (St95) show
unequivocal increases . At the time of writing three children have died of
their disease. 
It can be concluded that there is a real, and large, increase in the
incidence of childhood thyroid cancer in Belarus and Ukraine which is likely
to be related to the Chernobyl accident. This is suggested by features of
the disease, which differ somewhat from the so-called natural occurrence, as
well as by its temporal and geographic distribution.
As far as other thyroid disorders are concerned, no difference in Russia was
detected by ultrasound examination, in the percentage incidence of cysts,
nodules or autoimmune thyroiditis in the contaminated versus the
uncontaminated areas (Ts94). Following the accident, children in the
Ukrainian contaminated regions exhibited a transient dose-dependent increase
in serum thyroxine level, without overt clinical thyrotoxicosis, which
returned to normal within 12 to 18 months (Ni94). This was most marked in
the youngest children. This finding cannot be regarded as an adverse health
effect, as no abnormality was permanent. However, it may be a pointer to
future thyroid disease, especially when it may be associated with mild
regional dietary iodine deficiency, and indicates the need for continued
monitoring. 
The majority of the estimates indicate that the overall health impact from
these thyroid disorders will be extremely small and not detectable when
averaged over the population potentially at risk. This viewpoint is widely
held by the competent risk assessors who have examined the potential effects
of the accident. 

In 9d3r27$g66tt$
2...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,
fogl...@katamail.com
, il 6-05-2001 16:10 ha scritto:

E queste altre ancora?
Zille
Other late health effects
From data in the Russian National Medical Dosimetric Registry (RNMDR), the
reported incidence of all types of disease has risen between 1989 and 1992
(Iv94). There has also been a reported increase in malignant disease which
might be due to better surveillance and/or radiation exposure. The crude
mortality rate of the liquidators from all causes in the Russian Federation
has increased from 5 per 1,000 in 1991 to 7 per 1,000 in 1992. The crude
death rate from respiratory cancer is reported to have increased
significantly between 1990 and 1991, and for all malignant neoplasms between
1991 and 1992. It is not clear what influence smoking has had on these data,
and the overall significance of these findings will need to be established
by further surveillance, especially when there are distinct regional
variations in the crude death rate and the mortality rates from lung, breast
and intestinal cancer are rising in the general population of the Russian
Federation. 
From the dosimetric data in the RNMDR (Iv94), a predicted excess 670 cancer
deaths may occur in the exposed groups covered by the Registry, peaking in
about 25 years. This is about 3.4 per cent of the expected cancer deaths
from other causes. Data from the other national dose registries is not
readily available in the published literature.
In view of the difficulties associated with these Registry data, such as the
dose estimates, the influence of such confounding factors as smoking, the
difficulty in follow-up, the possible increase in some diseases in the
general population and also the short time since the accident, it is not
possible to draw any firm conclusions from these data at this time. The only
inference that can be made is that these groups are the most exposed and
that, if any radiation effects are to be seen, they will occur in selected
cohorts within these registries, which will require long-term future
surveillance. 
A predicted increase of genetic effects in the next two generations was
0.015 per cent of the spontaneous rate, and the estimated lifetime excess
percentage of all cancers as a result of living in the strict control zones
was 0.5 per cent, provided that a lifetime dose limit of 350 mSv was not
exceeded (Il90). 
Childhood leukemia incidence has not changed in the decade since the
accident. There is no significant change in the level of leukemia and
related diseases in the contaminated (more than 555 kBq/m2) and
noncontaminated territories of the three states (WH95). Other attempts
through epidemiological studies have failed to establish a link between
radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident and the incidence of leukemia
and other abnormalities. No epidemiological evidence of an increase in
childhood leukemia around Chernobyl (Iv93), in Sweden (Hj94) or the rest of
Europe (Pa92, Wi94) has been established. However, it may be prudent to
withold final judgement on this issue for a few more years.
Other studies 
Various reports (Pa93, Sc93, Se95, St93, Ve93) have been published on the
incidence of chromosome aberrations among people exposed both in the
contaminated regions and in Europe. Some of these have shown little or no
increase, while others have. This may reflect the wide variation in dose.
However, there is a trend for the incidence of chromosome aberrations to
return to normal with the passage of time. Other studies have not shown
evidence of lymphocytic chromosome damage (Br92).
In East Germany one study found no rise in foetal chromosome aberrations
between May and December 1986. Chromosome aberrations are to be expected in
any exposed population, and should be regarded as biological evidence of
that exposure, rather than an adverse health effect.
Another study in Germany suggesting a link between Down's syndrome (Trisomy
21) and the Chernobyl accident has been severely criticised and cannot be
accepted at face value because of the absence of control for confounding
factors (Sp91), and it was not confirmed by more extensive studies (Li93).
Another study in Finland (Ha92) showed no association of the incidence of
Trisomy 21 with radiation exposure from Chernobyl.
There are no clear trends in data for birth anomalies in Belarus or Ukraine
(Li93, Bo94). Two epidemiological studies in Norway concluded that no
serious gross changes as to pregnancy outcome were observed (Ir91), and that
no birth defects known to be associated with radiation exposure were
detected (Li92). In Austria, no significant changes in the incidence of
birth defects or spontaneous abortion rates which could be attributed to the
Chernobyl accident were detected (Ha92a).
A review by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) showed no
consistent evidence of a detrimental physical effect of the Chernobyl
accident on congenital abnormalities or pregnancy outcomes (Li93, EG88). No
reliable data have shown any significant association between adverse
pregnancy outcome or birth anomalies even in the most contaminated regions
and the doses indicate that none would be expected.
There have been reports that have suggested that radiation exposure as a
result of the accident resulted in altered immune reactions. While immune
suppression at high whole-body doses is known to be inevitable and severe,
at the low doses experienced by the general population it is expected that
any detected alterations will be minor and corrected naturally without any
medical consequences. These minor changes may be indicative of radiation
exposure, but their mild transitory nature is unlikely to lead to permanent
damage to the immune system. All immunological tests of radiation exposure
are in their infancy, but tests such as stimulated immunoglobulin production
by lymphocytes hold promise for the future as a means of assessing doses
below one Gy (De90).  

In 9d3r27$g66tt$
2...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,
fogl...@katamail.com
, il 6-05-2001 16:10 ha scritto:

E per ultime queste?
Zille
Psychological effects
The severity of the psychological effects of the Chernobyl accident appears
to be related to the public's growing mistrust of officialdom, politicians
and government, especially in the field of nuclear power. Public scepticism
towards authority is reinforced by its difficulty in understanding radiation
and its effects, as well as the inability of the experts to present the
issues in a way that is comprehensible. The impression that an unseen,
unknowable, polluting hazard has been imposed upon them by the authorities
against their will, fosters a feeling of outrage.
Public outrage is magnified by the concept that their existing or future
descendants are also at risk from this radiation pollution. This widespread
public attitude was not confined to one country, and largely determined the
initial public response outside the Soviet Union. The public distrust was
increased by the fact that the accident that they had been told could not
happen, did happen, and it induced anxiety and stress in people not only in
the contaminated areas but, to a lesser extent, all over the world.
While stress and anxiety cannot be regarded as direct physical adverse
health effects of irradiation, their influence on the well-being of people
who were exposed or thought that they might have been, may well have a
significant impact on the exposed population. Several surveys have shown
that the intensity of the anxiety and stress are directly related to the
presence of contamination. It should also be remembered that the stress
induced by the accident was in addition to that produced in the general
population by the severe economic and social hardship caused by the break-up
of the Soviet Union.
Within the former Soviet Union
Within the Soviet Union additional factors came into play to influence the
public reaction. It should be remembered that this accident occurred during
the initial period of "glasnost" and "perestroika". After nearly seventy
years of repression, the ordinary people in the Soviet Union were beginning
openly to express all the dissatisfaction and frustration that they had been
harbouring. Distrust and hatred of the central government and the Communist
system could be expressed for the first time without too much fear of
reprisal. In addition, nationalism was not repressed. The Chernobyl accident
appeared to epitomise everything that was wrong with the old system, such as
secrecy, witholding information and a heavy-handed authoritarian approach.
Opposition to Chernobyl came to symbolise not only anti-nuclear and
anti-communist sentiment but also was associated with an upsurge in
nationalism. 
The distrust of officialdom was so great that even scientists from the
central government were not believed, and more reliance was placed on local
"experts" who often had very little expertise in radiation and its effects.
The then Soviet Government recognised this problem quickly, and tried to
counteract the trend by inviting foreign experts to visit the contaminated
areas, assess the problems, meet with local specialists and publicise their
views in open meetings and on television. These visits appeared to have a
positive effect, at least initially, in allaying the fears of the public. In
the contaminated Republics, anxiety and stress were much more prevalent and
were not just confined to the more heavily contaminated regions (WH90a).
Several surveys conducted by Soviet (Al89) and other researchers (Du94) have
shown that the anxiety induced by the accident has spread far beyond the
more heavily contaminated regions.
During this period there was severe economic hardship which added to the
social unrest and reinforced opposition to the official system of
government. Anti-nuclear demonstrations were commonplace in the larger
cities in Belarus (Gomel and Minsk), and Ukraine (Kiev and Lvov) in the
years following the accident (Co92). The dismissive attitude of some Soviet
scientists and government officials in describing the public reaction as
"radiophobic" tended to alienate the public even further by implying some
sort of mental illness or reaction which was irrational and abnormal. It
also served as a convenient catch-all diagnosis which suggested that the
public was somehow at fault, and the authorities were unable to do anything
about its manifestations.
The concern of people for their own health is only overshadowed by their
concern for the health of their children and grandchildren. Major and minor
health problems are attributed to radiation exposure no matter what their
origin, and the impact that the accident has had on their daily lives has
added to the stress. Whole communities are facing or have faced evacuation
or relocation. There are still widespread restrictions on daily life
affecting schooling, work, diet and recreation.
The accident has caused disruption of social networks and traditional ways
of life. As most inhabitants of the contaminated settlements are native to
the area and often have lived there all their lives, relocation has in many
cases, destroyed the existing family and community social networks,
transferring groups to new areas where they may well be resented or even
ostracised. In spite of these drawbacks, about 70 per cent of the people
living in contaminated areas wished to be relocated (IA91). This may well be
influenced by the economic incentives and improved living standards that
result from relocation by the government.
There are two additional circumstances and events which have tended to
increase the psychological impact of the accident, the first of which was an
initiative specifically designed to alleviate these effects in Ukraine. This
was the introduction of the compensation law in Ukraine in 1991. Some three
million Ukrainians were affected in some way by the post-accident management
introduced, upon which approximately one sixth of the total national budget
was spent (Du94). Different surveys have shown a general feeling of anxiety
in all sectors of the population, but it was particularly acute among those
who had been relocated. People were fearful of what the future might bring
for themselves and their offspring, and were concerned about their lack of
control over their own destiny.
The problem is that the system of compensation may well have exaggerated
these fears by placing the recipients into the category of victims. This
tended to segregate them socially and increased the resentment of the native
population into whose social system these "victims" had been injected
without consultation. This had the effect on the evacuees of increasing
stress, often leading to withdrawal, apathy and despair. Locally, this
compensation was often referred as a "coffin subsidy"! It is interesting to
note that the 800 or so mostly elderly people who have returned to their
contaminated homes in the evacuated zones, and hence receive no
compensation, appear to be less stressed and anxious, in spite of worse
living conditions, than those who were relocated. It should be pointed out
that compensation and assistance are not harmful in themselves, provided
that care is taken not to induce an attitude of dependence and resignation
in the recipients. 
The second factor which served to augment the psychological impact of the
accident was the acceptance by physicians and the public of the disease
entity known as "vegetative dystonia". This diagnosis is characterised by
vague symptoms and no definitive diagnostic tests. At any one time, up to
1,000 children were hospitalised in Kiev, often for weeks, for treatment of
this "disease" (St92). The diagnosis of vegetative dystonia appears to be
tailor-made for the post-accident situation, assigned by parents and doctors
to account for childhood complaints and accepted by adults as an explanation
for vague symptoms.
There is great pressure on the physicians to respond to their patients'
needs in terms of arriving at an acceptable diagnosis, and "Vegetative
Dystonia" is very convenient as it will fit any array of symptoms. Such a
diagnosis not only justifies the patients' complaints by placing the blame
for this "disease" on radiation exposure, it also exonerates the patient
from any responsibility, which is placed squarely on the shoulders of those
responsible for the exposure - the Government. When the need for extended
hospitalisation is added, the justification to accept this as a real disease
is enhanced. It can be understood why there is an epidemic of this diagnosis
in the contaminated areas.
Outside the former Soviet Union
Psychological effects in other countries were minimal compared with those
within the former Soviet Union, and were generally exhibited more as
concerned social reactions rather than psychosomatic symptoms. In the
contaminated regions of the former Soviet Union, many people were convinced
that they were suffering from radiation induced disease, whereas in the rest
of the world, where contamination was much less, news of the accident
appeared to reinforce anti-nuclear perceptions in the general population.
This was evidenced, for example, by the demonstrations on 7 June 1986
demanding the decommissioning of all nuclear power plants in the Federal
Republic of Germany (Ze86). While in France public support for nuclear power
expansion dropped since the accident, 63 per cent of the population felt
that French nuclear power reactors operated efficiently (Ch90). The minimal
impact of the Chernobyl accident on French public opinion was probably due
to the fact that about 75 per cent of their electrical power is derived from
nuclear stations, and in addition, France was one of the least contaminated
European countries.
The Swedish public response has been well-documented (Dr93, Sj87). In the
survey, the question was asked: "With the experience that we now have, do
you think it was good or bad for the country to invest in Nuclear Energy?"
Those that responded "bad" jumped from 25 per cent before, to 47 per cent
after Chernobyl. The accident probably doubled the number of people who
admitted negative attitudes towards nuclear power (Sj87). This change was
most marked among women, who, it was felt, regarded nuclear power as an
environmental problem, whereas men regarded it as a technical problem which
could be solved. Media criticism of the radiation protection authorities in
that country became more common, with the charge that the official
pronouncements on the one hand said that the risk in Sweden was negligible,
and yet on the other, gave instructions on how it could be reduced. The
concept that a dose, however small, should be avoided if it could be done
easily and cheaply, was not understood.
This sort of reaction was common outside the former Soviet Union, and while
it did not give rise to significant psychosomatic effects, it tended to
enhance public apprehension about the dangers of nuclear power and foster
the public's growing mistrust of official bodies.
In addition, public opinion in Europe was very sceptical of the information
released by the Soviet Union. This mistrust was reinforced further by the
fact that the traditional sources of information to which the public tended
to turn in a crisis, the physicians and teachers, were no better informed
and often only repeated and reinforced the fears that had been expressed to
them. Added to this were the media, who tended to respond to the need to
print "newsworthy" items by publishing some of the more outlandish claims of
so-called radiation effects.
The general public was confused and cynical and responded in predictable but
extreme ways such as seeking induced abortions, postponing travel and not
buying food that might conceivably be contaminated. Another global concern
that was manifested, was the apprehension over travel to the Soviet Union.
Potential travellers sought advice from national authorities on whether to
travel, what precautions to take and how they could check on their exposure.
Many people, in spite of being reassured that it was safe to travel,
cancelled their trip, just to be on the safe side, exhibiting their lack of
confidence in the advice they received.
As has been seen, governments themselves were not immune from the influence
of these fears and some responded by introducing measures such as
unnecessarily stringent intervention levels for the control of radionuclides
in imported food. Thus, in the world as a whole, while the individual
psychological effects due to anxiety and stress were probably minimal, the
collective perception and response had a significant economic and social
impact. It became clear that there was a need to inform the public on
radiation effects, to provide clear instructions on the precautions to be
taken so that the public regains some level of personal control, and for the
authorities to recognise the public's need to be involved in the decisions
that affect them. 
In summary, it can be stated that:
*    
Thirty-one people died in the course of the accident or soon after and
another 137 were treated for the acute radiation syndrome.
*    
Extensive psychological effects are apparent in the affected regions of the
former Soviet Union, manifested as anxiety and stress. Severe forms induce a
feeling of apathy and despair often leading to withdrawal. In the rest of
the world these individual effects were minimal.
*    
In the last decade, there has been a real and significant increase in
childhood and, to a certain extent, adult carcinoma of the thyroid in
contaminated regions of the former Soviet Union (Wi940) which should be
attributed to the Chernobyl accident until proven otherwise.
*    
In children, the thyroid cancers are:
*    
largely papillary and particularly aggressive in nature often self
presenting with local invasion and/or distant metastases,
*    
more prevalent in children aged 0 to 5 years at the time of the accident,
and in areas assessed to be the more heavily contaminated with iodine-131,
*    
apparently characterised by a shorter latent period than expected and,
*    
still increasing. 
*    
There has been no increase in leukemia, congenital abnormalities, adverse
pregnancy outcomes or any other radiation induced disease in the general
population either in the contaminated regions or in Western Europe, which
can be attributed to this exposure. It is unlikely that surveillance of the
general population will reveal any significant increase in the incidence of
cancer. 

In 9d3r27$g66tt$
2...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,
fogl...@katamail.com
, il 6-05-2001 16:10 ha scritto:

 E queste frasi le hai lette?
Zille
CHERNOBYL 10 YEARS ON-RADIOLOGICAL & HEALTH IMPACT
An Assessment by the NEA Committee on Radiation Protection and Public
Health, November 1995
Chapter V 
Health impact
Conclusions 
(Conclusions will open in a pop-up window)
As ionising radiation passes through the body, it interacts with the tissues
transfering energy to cellular and other constituents by ionisation of their
atoms. This phenomenon has been extensively studied in the critical genetic
material, DNA, which controls the functions of the cells. If the damage to
DNA is slight and the rate of damage production is not rapid, i.e. at low
dose rate, the cell may be able to repair most of the damage. If the damage
is irreparable and severe enough to interfere with cellular function, the
cell may die either immediately or after several divisions.
At low doses, cell death can be accommodated by the normal mechanisms that
regulate cellular regeneration. However, at high doses and dose rates,
repair and regeneration may be inadequate, so that a large number of cells
may be destroyed leading to impaired organ function. This rapid,
uncompensatable cell death at high doses leads to early deleterious
radiation effects which become evident within days or weeks of exposure, and
are known as "deterministic effects". These deterministic effects can be
life-threatening in the short term if the dose is high enough, and were
responsible for most of the early deaths in the Chernobyl accident.
Lower doses and dose rates do not produce these acute early effects, because
the available cellular repair mechanisms are able to compensate for the
damage. However, this repair may be incomplete or defective, in which case
the cell may be altered so that it may develop into a cancerous cell,
perhaps many years into the future, or its transformation may lead to
hereditable defects in the long term. These late effects, cancer induction
and hereditary defects, are known as "stochastic effects" and are those
effects whose frequency, not severity, is dose dependent. Moreover, they are
not radiation-specific and, therefore, cannot be directly attributed to a
given radiation exposure.
For this reason, low dose health effects in humans cannot be measured and,
therefore, risk projections of the future health impact of low-dose ionising
radiation exposure have to be extrapolated from measured high-dose effects.
The assumption was made that no dose of ionising radiation was without
potential harm and that the frequency of stochastic effects at low doses
would be proportional to that occurring at high doses. This prudent
assumption was adopted to assist in the planning of radiation protection
provisions when considering the introduction of practices involving ionising
radiations. The ICRP has estimated the risk of fatal cancer to the general
population from whole-body exposure to be 5 per cent per sievert (IC90).
The health impact of the Chernobyl accident can be classified in terms of
acute health effects ("deterministic effects") and of late health effects
("stochastic effects"); moreover there are also psychological effects which
can influence health.

 
Non ci vedo nulla di strano vista l'estensione che la nube ebbe in europa.
Io ci penserei su 
Zille

 
E questo dovrebbe rassicurarmi sull'uso del nucleare in Italia?
Zille

In 9d6pq9$grjdv$
4...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,


 Forse si ma non sono prrprio pochini tenendo conto che si sta parlando solo
di eolico.
Zille

In 9d3r27$g66tt$
2...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,


E queste frasi?
Zille
Acute health effects
All the acute deterministic health effects occurred among the personnel of
the plant, or in those persons brought in for fire fighting and immediate
clean-up operations.
Two deaths were immediately associated with the accident: one person killed
by the explosion and another who suffered a coronary thrombosis. A third
person died early the morning of the accident from thermal burns.
Twenty-eight other persons died later in the treatment centres, bringing the
total to 31 deaths in the first weeks after the accident (UN88).
All symptomatic exposed persons from the site were placed in hospitals. Of
the total of 499 persons admitted for observation, 237 of these were
initially diagnosed as suffering from acute radiation syndrome and most of
these were hospitalised in the first 24 hours. The severity and rapidity of
onset of their symptoms depended on their dose. The initial early signs and
symptoms of radiation sickness from high doses included diarrhoea, vomiting,
fever and erythema. Over 200 patients were placed in regional hospitals and
specialised centres in the first 24 hours. Patients were allocated to four
categories of radiation sickness severity according to their symptoms, signs
and dose estimates. The differential white blood cell count showed reduced
circulating lymphocytes (lymphocytopenia) which was the initial indicator of
the severity of the exposure and became evident in the first 24-36 hours for
those most severely irradiated.
No members of the general public received such high whole-body doses as to
induce Acute Radiation Syndrome (IA86). This was confirmed in Belarus,
where, between May and June 1986, 11,600 people were investigated without
the discovery of any cases of acute radiation sickness.
In the highest exposure group (6-16 Gy), the first reaction was usually
vomiting, occurring within 15-30 minutes of exposure. These patients were
desperately ill; fever and intoxication as well as diarrhoea and vomiting,
were prominent features. Mucous membranes were severely affected, becoming
swollen, dry and ulcerated, making breathing and swallowing extremely
painful and difficult. Extensive burns both thermal and due to beta
radiation often complicated the illness. Within the first two weeks white
blood cells and platelets fell dramatically, indicating a very high dose
which had compromised the production of blood cells in the bone marrow,
making it virtually impossible for the patients to fight infection or to
retain the natural clotting activity of the blood. Almost all the patients
with such high doses died (20 of 21), in spite of the intensive specialised
medical treatment provided.
At lower exposures, the symptoms, signs and laboratory findings improved.
Vomiting began later, platelet and white cell counts did not drop so
precipitously and the fever and toxaemia were less pronounced. Beta
radiation burns to the skin were a major complicating factor and mucous
membrane damage was difficult to treat, but survival improved markedly at
lower doses, so that no early deaths were noted in the less than 1-2 Gy
exposure group (Table 6).
Table 6. Outcome of radiation exposure among persons hospitalised for acute
radiation syndrome
Number of patients 
 
Estimated Dose (Gy)
 
Deaths
21
 
6-16
 
20
21
 
4-6
 
7
55
 
2-4
 
1
140
 
less than 2
 
0
Total: 237
 
 
28
There is a large range of medical treatments that can be attempted to
mitigate the acute radiation syndrome. All these procedures were applied to
the persons hospitalised with varying degrees of success. The hospital
treatment following the accident included replacement therapy with blood
constituents, fluids and electrolytes; antibiotics; antifungal agents;
barrier nursing and bone marrow transplantation.
The treatment of the depression of bone-marrow function encountered after
the accident was largely supportive. Special hygienic measures were taken;
patients' clothes were changed at least twice a day and aseptic techniques
used. Those patients who received doses above 2 Gy were given anti-fungal
agents after the second week. Antibiotics and gamma globulin were also
administered. 
Bone-marrow transplantation was undertaken in 13 patients who were judged to
have irreversible bone marrow damage after doses greater than 4 Gy. All but
two of these patients died, some before the transfused marrow had had a
chance to "take", but others had short-term takes. It was concluded that,
even after very high radiation doses, the bone marrow may well not be
completely destroyed and may recover at least some function at a later
stage. It is this recovery which may lead to later rejection of the
transplanted marrow through a "Host versus Graft" reaction. The physicians
responsible for treating the victims of the accident concluded that bone
marrow transplantation should play a very limited role in treatment.
Burns, both thermal and from beta radiation, were treated with surgical
excision of tissue that was not viable, and any fluid and electrolyte loss
was compensated for by the parenteral feeding set up to treat the
gastro-intestinal syndrome which is a prominent feature of acute radiation
sickness. The oro-pharyngeal syndrome of mucosal destruction, oedema and the
absence of lubrication caused by radiation damage to the mucosa of the mouth
and pharynx was extremely difficult to treat, and severely impaired
swallowing and breathing. 

 l'uomo. E in parte lo è: per uno stupido errore, evitabilissimo,
perderanno
..[cut]...
Concordo pienamente con questo ragionamento.
Uno dei problemi fondamentali è anche la mancanza di una cultura di massa
per capire l'importanza della salvaguardia dell'ambiente in cui si vive, ma
fatto ancora più grave è la mancanza di volontà nel mettere in atto forti
strategie di salvaguardia.
L'inquinamento è un nemico invisibile, ma tanto forte quanto pericoloso.

 Veniero


 L'incremento annuo super il 6%
E' facile avere un incremento elevato se la potenza installata è bassa.
Aumentando la potenza la crescita annuale si ridurrà sempre più.
La cosa che fa piacere è che son riusciti a produrre più energia diminuendo
il nunmero si turbine installate.

 veicolo a piena velocità per qualche secondo, prima di rallentarlo 
con tutto questo non mi spieghi come sia possibile che autobus del genere 
continuino a circolare o abbiano circolato (piu' o meno tranquillamente) 
per decenni!!
L'unica risposta e' che il progetto funziona, bisogna solo evitare di 
prendere strade che lo "rallentino" troppo. Nessun errore quindi del 
progetto, solo che deve essere pilotato bene.

 progetto, solo che deve essere pilotato bene.
Entrambe le cose ma se il progetto è fatto bene puoi evitare di prendere
troppi accorgimenti nella gestione.
L'errore umano è sempre la causa primaria di incidenti

 il nunmero si turbine installate.
verissimo. Questo fa supporre che il tasso del 6% può essere mantenuto
o aumentato andando ad incidere di meno sul territorio, e non mi pare
poco.



Se in Ucrainia, aprono tranquillamente nuove centrali, significa che non č
successo niente di terribile, se ci fosse quel disastro che si dice, se ne
guarderebbero bene.
Ciao
Veniero.


La trovo interessante.
Ciao


Allora niente, se non la trovi importante, non farci caso.
Ciao

 Ciao


In 9djoqp$iul2l$
8...@ID-11093.news.dfncis.de
, Veniero Fogliata,


Ha ha Ha ha HA HA  HAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH ARGHHHHH!
Zille

 ha scritto nel messaggio
news:B72487DE.86D6%zi...@clix.pt...


 poco.
Sono un pò scettico ma non affatto contrario a questo sviluppo... ben venga.

> Idem per Veniero...
Mi scuso se ho scritto qualcosa che ti dispiaccia.
Ciao
Veniero.


Perché? vivono forse tutti nel terrore, o magari sono tutti morti?
Ciao
Veniero.

Fatto salvo che non risolverà il problema, non posso che essere favorevole
all'incremento di ogni fonte alternativa.
Ciao
Veniero.


Concordo.
Veniero.