Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale.israele
Titolo: Il suicidio del terrorismo suicida

Gli attacchi esplosivi e armati declinano al punto che si tornano a
conteggiare i lanci di pietre di cui nessuno, da tempo, si preoccupava
più.
Secondo questa analisi del Jerusalem Post, l'Intifada ormai è
militarmente finita. Ma dal punto di vista IDF, la relativa calma che
Israele sta vivendo non è dovuta alla morte di Arafat. E' il risultato
dell'attacco alle fonti del terrorismo da parte di IDF e Shin Bet, e
dell'efficacia dei controlli di frontiera.
L'arresto di sei terroristi suicidi *dopo* la morte di Arafat dimostra
che la volontà è ancora lì, ma che le capacità di attacco si stanno
inesorabilmente deteriorando: "la nostra velocità di acchiappare
terroristi ha superato la loro capacità di rimpiazzarli".
Il pericolo, adesso, viene dal terrorismo internazionale. E in primo
luogo da Hezbollah, che si infiltra nei territori.
Tb
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http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
&cid=1102601525350&apage=1
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ec. 10, 2004 1:17  | Updated Dec. 10, 2004 2:16
Analysis: Psst! Intifada's over
 By ARIEH O'SULLIVAN
Advertisement
 
 
It was a telling sign when senior commanders in the Central Command
recently started counting the number of Palestinian stone-throwing
incidents in the West Bank. For the past four years of the latest
conflict, called by the Palestinians the "Aksa Intifada," the army
counted mainly suicide bombings, shootings and petrol bomb attacks.
Stonings weren't even mentioned.
 Looking at the dry statistics, the level of terror has been reduced
drastically in the past few months to what appears to be on par with
that before September 2000. There could be a suicide bombing tomorrow,
but then again there were suicide bombings before this latest round of
conflict, too.
 The Aksa Intifada is over. No one in the IDF would be foolish enough to
make such a far-reaching statement, but the statistics speak for
themselves.
 From the IDF's perspective, the relative calm Israel is experiencing
now is not connected to the death of Yasser Arafat or other changes in
the Palestinian nation, but is rather the direct result of the
aggressive action against terrorists by the IDF, aided by the Shin Bet
(Israel Security Agency) and Border Police. The army said it has
arrested six suicide bombers since Arafat died a month ago. This shows
the motivation is still there, but the capabilities are steadily
deteriorating.
 For the moment, the Central Command can mark for itself an impressive
achievement.
 "Our rate of catching terrorists is now quicker than their rate of
replacing themselves," said a senior officer.
 This means that the arrests and targeting of key terrorist cell leaders
happen about as often as they take up command. They are nabbed before
they gain sufficient expertise. In many cases, lower-level activists
find themselves at the head of a cell, and even then spend most of their
time avoiding arrest.
 Just in the past two months, security forces have arrested some 800
suspects, including nearly 300 wanted fugitives, in hundreds of raids.
Families have also turned in 20 suspected suicide bombers since
September. That said, the Central Command recently published a booklet
with the names and photos of more than 500 new suspected terrorists,
drawn from a bottomless well.
 "These guys are young, very young," said an intelligence officer. "They
don't survive long."
 Perspective is needed here. By the army's count, there are 2,075,000
Palestinians living in the West Bank and 229,000 Jewish settlers in 123
settlements. The State of Israel deploys about 10,000 soldiers to
protect the country from Palestinian terrorism.
 There are roughly 40 terrorist cells operating throughout the
territories, mostly inside the large Arab cities.
 There is no longer any organizational discipline among terrorist
groups. The groups themselves are more or less cocktails of Hamas, Fatah
Tanzim, Islamic Jihad and PFLP members. IDF sources described them as
"less ideological and more territorial," employing gang-type extortion
to survive.
 The Palestinians are said to be in a state of anarchy, accumulated
fatigue and suffering from a loss of a sense of internal security from
increasing crime, murder and burglary. Only 10 percent of crimes ever
reach court, and there is a return to the clan justice of old.
 IDF intelligence holds that nationalist terror is on the decline and
global terrorism is taking its place. This can be seen in the increasing
involvement of Hizbullah in Palestinian terror. The army maintains that
about 75% of all West Bank terrorist cells are funded, directed and even
armed by Hizbullah. It is also expected that Hizbullah will try to
infiltrate agents into the territories and terrorists may adopt some of
its public-relations tactics like filming attacks.
Much has been written about the IDF tactics developed to wage this
low-intensity conflict. Technology such as sensors and surveillance
tools, together with an overhauled doctrine, have allowed the army to
reduce its battle-order significantly in the past year. That means fewer
soldiers are performing more missions.
 Also, operations that once took a few days can now be implemented with
three or hours' notice, and sometimes even less. Tanks have not been
used in the West Bank for more than two years.
 The IDF is proud of its record. It feels it has met its goals of
providing Israel with an acceptable level of security, preventing
internationalization of the conflict, blocking Palestinian achievements
through violence and providing the government with an environment
suitable for negotiations.
-- 
Alcuni di noi hanno storie di merda che fanno male. 
(il primo kiwi con tastiera incorporata)

