Newsgroup: it.politica.internazionale.israele
Titolo: Arafat in power is just what Sharon wants

Arafat in power is just what Sharon wants   
 
By Ze'ev Schiff 
 
 
 
As opposed to the conventional wisdom that Ariel Sharon wants to see
Yasser Arafat gone, or even dead, the prime minister apparently has a
clear interest in Arafat remaining in the territories and continuing
his current activities. When Sharon declares, as he recently did, that
Arafat has no "life insurance," he's actually doing it to invite
international pressure to not harm Arafat. With the help of that
pressure, he finds it easier to rebuff the pressure of the radical
right, which demands action against Arafat, without having to explain
that the chairman's presence in the territories serves a much broader
strategic interest. 
 
 
 
 
Indeed, the Americans tell Sharon not to harm Arafat. However, they
agree Arafat is not a partner for peace negotiations because he has
not fought the terrorist infrastructure, conducted real reforms in the
Palestinian Authority, and mostly because he did not hand over control
of the PA security forces to the Palestinian prime minister,
repeatedly deceived Washington, and nurtured terrorist connections
with Hezbollah and Iran.
For Sharon, that is an accomplishment because he does not want to
conduct direct negotiations with the Palestinians. In the current
circumstances, he can claim that Arafat, and with him the entire
Palestinian leadership, are not credible partners for negotiations.
Sharon even rejects moderate proposals, like the one formulated by the
British and Palestinians and meant to dismantle the terrorist
infrastructure, albeit through contacts with Arafat. Even when there
is a tempting security program, but one that requires some
negotiations, it will be rejected by Sharon on the grounds it involves
Arafat.
That has allowed Sharon to raise his proposals for unilateral steps,
like the disengagement from Gaza and the northern part of the West
Bank. After all, if Arafat is removed and an alternative Palestinian
leadership emerges, there won't be any logic to unilateral steps. If a
pragmatic, stable Palestinian leadership comes to power, Israel will
not be able to argue it cannot negotiate with it. It's obvious to
Sharon that with the rise of such a different leadership, pressure
will form, including from Washington for negotiations between Israel
and the Palestinians. Such pressure will not come as long as Arafat is
in control. Everyone will talk about the road map but its execution
will take place in unilateral steps. Therefore, Sharon's insurance
policy from pressure is Arafat's continued rule and his continued
presence in the territories. So why expel him?
Negotiations would mean large and painful concessions for Israel, far
more than the evacuation of four settlements in Samaria, as Sharon
proposes in his disengagement plan. That will certainly be the
situation after the completion of the separation fence. In such
negotiations, Jerusalem, the large settlement blocs, and the dozens of
other settlements will certainly come up for discussion. The
Palestinians will win much more international support in such
negotiations. Washington would also not be able to make do with what
appears in the current disengagement plan. That is what Sharon wants
to avoid or postpone for as long as possible. With his presence in the
territories, Arafat is a pawn on Sharon's chessboard.
According to another approach, the disengagement plan and its support
from Washington will shock the Palestinian leadership, possibly to the
point of Abu Ala's resignation. That would lead to the emergence of a
new group of leaders to neutralize Arafat's negative activities. The
hope is that Israel would be able to negotiate with such a group of
leaders. The trouble is that, at this stage, Sharon and Arafat - two
leaders who still don't want, if they ever did, to negotiate for a
permanent agreement and compromise that would end the conflict - have
the upper hand.  

MMAX wrote:
Sharon glielo deve: Arraffat e' stato il suo piu' grande promotore
elettorale...
GK.