Newsgroup: it.comp.hardware.video-3d
Titolo: Nv 270, 290 GX2 useless desperate attempts

pare che le cose non siano destinate a cambiare, anzi
On the up side, the 280 is the single fastest GPU on the market. On the down side people 
don't buy GPUs, they buy graphics cards, and the 280 is not the single fastest graphics card 
on the market. That honour goes to the ATI 4870X2 by a large margin. With the new-gen GT200 
parts, Nvidia loses on all fronts, performance, performance per dollar, and performance per 
watt, they simply aren't competitive.
That brings us to the new parts, the 270 and 290. They popped up on a PNY price list a few 
weeks ago, and then were pulled off immediately. This part is what we were calling the GT200b 
in May, but the public code name is GT206. It is simply an optically shrunk GT200, so clock 
for clock, you won't get any speed boost out of it. It is meant to fatten up the margins by 
reducing cost. If the GT200 is a 576mm^2 die, and the 206 is around 460mm^2 (~21mm*21mm die), 
even with the more expensive 55nm process, NV should save some money.
One big problem though is yield. GT200s started out at 40 per cent yield, that is for the 280 
and the yield salvage 260, and were up to a hair above 60 per cent last time we looked. Toss 
in the smoothly-named GTX260-216, and you screw up the binning a lot. When you transition to 
a new process, yield almost always goes down, so this part should be back in at the bottom of 
the yield toilet, not that 60 per cent is out of the bowl, in short order.
So what are the 270 and 290? That is easy, they are 55nm GT200s, aka GT200b, aka GT206. 
Nothing new, nothing spectacular at all. Why the new name then, other than desperation, if 
you get nothing different clock for clock? Well, that is easy, Nvidia simply has to bump up 
margins, and the easiest way to do that is to snow customers.
If you remember what they did when changing the name on the 8800GT to the 9800GTX, it is the 
same thing. Partners can't make money, and a name change will make the stupid fanbois out 
there line up. Milking the stupid is a time-honored tradition in the GPU world, and since the 
55nm shrink of the G92, the G92b sold less worse when they renamed it the 9800GTX+, it looks 
like they are trying it again. No, not the GT1xx, this time it is going to be less 
egregiously renamed to the 270 and 290.
When you shrink a chip, there are three main benefits, area, power and speed, with the last 
two being a tradeoff of sorts. Going from 65nm to 55nm, you shrink to about 70 per cent of 
the area, and save a bit of power. The power savings, however, are not quite 30 per cent off 
the top and, in addition to that, you also lose more on leakage, as smaller structures leak 
more. People who have done the same shrink at TSMC tell us that you net far less than 20 per 
cent. Let's be generous and call the power savings 15 per cent.
The 280 has a TDP of 236W and the 260 is at 182W, with the 260-216 somewhere in between. 
Since the RAM, external circuitry, power regulators and fans don't scale at all, we will 
ballpark the board level power savings at 10 per cent. That would put theoretical 270s at 
164W and the 290 at 212W, at the same clocks, but lets be overly generous and call it 160 and 
200, just to give NV the benefit of the doubt.
As always with transistors, you can take the power savings as such while keeping the clocks 
the same, or keep power consumption the same and jack up speed. Guess which one NV is going 
to do? Hint: "20W less power consumption!" on the side of the box won't sell many cards. You 
would be better off airbrushing bigger nipples on the chrome chick cover art.
So, in the end, the 270 and 290 are simply a little faster 260s and 280s. 
Whoopty-fricking-ding-dong. They will be relaunched as the second coming, and sites that are 
far to afraid to be cut off will parrot back the NV sermon. It won't be fast enough to beat a 
4870X2, not even close, but it will let NV jack up prices just in time for Christmas, giving 
their partners a desperately-needed few points of margin. NV fanbois will line up for it, and 
wonder why they took such a bath on the $650 280s they bought.
These cards were supposed to be out in late August or early September, but are now set for 
November. That is about time enough for a single respin, so something must have gone a bit 
pear shaped. In any case, it is much less delayed than the GT212, but that is another article 
entirely. AIBs just got their 270/290 boards recently, so both are a few weeks out yet.
If you are underwhelmed, then the dualie card is for you. We haven't seen a code name for it 
officially, but NV AIBs are talking about it. Take a 55nm GT200b/206 and put two PCBs 
together a la the 9800GX2, and you get the idea. There is one minor problem this time... 
heat.
The G92 (8800GT/9800GTX/GT15x) was coolable, barely, with a single slot cooler. The GT200 is 
not. Even with a theoretical 20 per cent lower power draw, you would be at 290W for a dual 
55nm 260 clone. If you use a 260-216 or jack the clock up, you are at 300+W in an instant, 
and we can see 350W without trying hard.
Normally, you would do what ATI did with the 3870X2 and downclock it a bit. Not much, just a 
little, and take the power savings. The problem is that the 260 loses already to the cheaper 
4870, and two of them wouldn't be much of a fight against the 4870X2. At a minimum, you need 
2 260-216s, or better yet two upclocked 260-216s to pip the 4870X2 and claim a hollow 
victory.
NV is in a real bind here, it needs a halo, but the parts won't let it do it. If they jack up 
power to give them the performance they need, they can't power it. Then there is the added 
complication of how the heck do you cool the damn thing. With a dual PCB, you have less than 
one slot to cool something that runs hot with a two slot cooler. In engineering terms, this 
is what you call a mess.
Given NV's problems of late with cooling, (here, here, and here) it is in a bind, but there 
is no way out of this, none at all. The only thing it can do is resort to unethical tactics, 
and that is what we think it will do here. The only solution open to NV is to cherry pick 
ultra low power GT200b parts and make a small run of GX2s that don't burn a hole in the 
bottom of your case on their way down to the center of the earth.
If this case follows past tactics, NV will make a very small run of parts and claim there is 
full production. Think 1000 parts or so, most of which go to reviewers. The rest will go to 
high-profile marketers, think Newegg, and they will sell out. When people cry for more, the 
usual 'high demand' lines will be spun, and they will dribble out 10-20 cards here and there 
to keep up appearances.
Pricing will likely be right on top of the 4870X2, maybe $50 more in order to bolster the 
performance claims, and they will be undoubtedly be sold at a loss. Then again, with the 
number likely to be made, it is chump change to take a small bath on each one to claim the 
lead for Christmas.
In any case, if the three upcoming parts, the 270, 290 and GX2 look like naked desperation 
attempts to grab at a halo, you are right. Upping the clocks will hit NV in the bottom line 
at the end of the quarter, their margins will suffer because of this stupidity. Fanbois will 
love it, massively subsidised parts are great deals for consumers. In fact, you will likely 
see massively discounted 260s and 280s in a few weeks when the new parts hit the street. They 
won't save Nvidia's bacon, but they may help partner margins. For a short time. At a high 
price. µ
(1) It was code named "Smoking Sepuku", but Nvidia didn't want to publicly suggest that this 
strategy was vaguely related to anything honorable, so it was renamed. We saw the memo, it 
was poignant. (2)
(2) We are, of course, making this all up.
http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/10/08/nvidia-270-290-gx2-roll
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Acta non Verba
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 pare che le cose non siano destinate a cambiare, anzi
beh io penso che una soluzione dual GT2xx sarà più veloce di una 4870 X2, 
non sarà di certo una scheda con cui spera di "far soldi" ma semplicemente 
quella che permetterà di riconquistare lo scettro del "ce l'ho più lungo" 
come dite voi.
Io onestamente confido molto nel progetto GT300 o comunque, in generale, 
nelle future gpu dx11 sia di una che dell'altra azienda. 

TigerShark ha scritto:

Evvai, un'altra scheda a paninozzo! :)


-_- che skifezz....
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 beh io penso che una soluzione dual GT2xx sarà più veloce di una 4870 X2
ma io dico di no


 nelle future gpu dx11 sia di una che dell'altra azienda.
Pure io...

 -_- che skifezz....
beh non è detto che sia una scheda dual PCB, ma potrebbe essere anche una 
dual GPU su singolo PCB proprio come la 4870 X2 

Il 14/10/08, TigerShark ha detto :

No negativo... saranno proprio due pcb "incollati" tra loro, come al 
solito.


ma lo spero veramente guarda.
però se non la fai a liquido non riesci a tenere a bada con metà dissipatore 
a chip, i due die che eventualmente andrebbero usati....
Con dei chip di dimensione ancora così grossa è difficile fare tutto su un 
lato!


 lato!
dici che il processo a 55nm non aiuterà a contenere consumi e temperature? 
Certo non si può pretendere che sarà una scheda "fredda" ma forse potrebbero 
farcela studiando un dissipatore davvero efficace. 


mah... son chip che da 24mm di lato passano a 22mm di lato... male che vada 
consumano un 10%-15% di watt  in meno...


 una dual GPU su singolo PCB proprio come la 4870 X2
Mah, sarebbe uno sforzo notevole. Dubito che faranno cosě.
-- 
Danilo Pianini
"DanySK"
MSN: danysk_AT_alientech_DOT_it
Skype: 
dany.sk
www.astice.org
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