Newsgroup: it.scienza.fisica
Titolo: Conseguenze di un conflitto nucleare regionale

Su Le Scienze online si legge l'articolo 'Conseguenze di un conflitto
nucleare regionale in cui si dice, alla fine, che:
[...] Secondo tali modelli, le conseguenze climatiche si sono rilevate
inaspettatamente grandi rispetto alle dimensioni del conflitto
ipotizzato, nel quale č stato considerato l'equivalente di uno
scambio di 100 testate da 15 chiloton, pari allo 0,03 per cento
dell'arsenale nucleare oggi esistente. [...]
Questa conclusione mi pare strana visto e considerato che, in passato,
si sono sganciati ordigni della potenza di diversi megatoni, e
addirittura uno da 50 (doveva essere di 100). 100 testate da 15 kT
complessivamente liberano 1,5MT di potenza, molto al di sotto di un
singolo ordigno fatto esplodere negli anni 50-60.
Quindi questo rapporto arriva a conclusioni sbagliate?

 singolo ordigno fatto esplodere negli anni 50-60.
Credo si riferisca al lancio di tutte le testate in un breve periodo di 
tempo.
Qui la notizia come è apparsa su ScienceDaily
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/12/061211090729.htm
"We examined the climatic effects of the smoke produced in a regional 
conflict in the subtropics between two opposing nations, each using 50 
Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons to attack the other's most populated 
urban areas," Robock said. The researchers carried out their 
simulations using a modern climate model coupled with estimates of 
smoke emissions provided by Toon and his colleagues, which amounted to 
as much as five million metric tons of "soot" particles.
"A cooling of several degrees would occur over large areas of North 
America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions," 
Robock said. "As in the case with earlier nuclear winter calculations, 
large climatic effects would occur in regions far removed from the 
target areas or the countries involved in the conflict."
When Robock and his team applied their climate model to calibrate the 
recorded response to the 1912 eruptions of Katmai volcano in Alaska, 
they found that observed temperature anomalies were accurately 
reproduced. On a grander scale, the 1815 eruption of Tambora in 
Indonesia -- the largest in the last 500 years -- was followed by 
killing frosts throughout New England in 1816, during what has become 
known as "the year without a summer." The weather in Europe was 
reported to be so cold and wet that the harvest failed and people 
starved. This historical event, according to Robock, perhaps 
foreshadows the kind of climate disruptions that would follow a 
regional nuclear conflict.
But the climatic disruption resulting from Tambora lasted for only 
about one year, the authors note. In their most recent computer 
simulation, in which carbon particles remain in the stratosphere for up 
to 10 years, the climatic effects are greater and last longer than 
those associated with the Tambora eruption.
"With the exchange of 100 15-kiloton weapons as posed in this scenario, 
the estimated quantities of smoke generated could lead to global 
climate anomalies exceeding any changes experienced in recorded 
history," Robock said. "And that's just 0.03 percent of the total 
explosive power of the current world nuclear arsenal."
saluti,
Peltio
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