Newsgroup: it.comp.hardware
Titolo: Prezzo dimm alle stelle! Perché?

Qualcuno sà il motivo di questo aumento spropositato????
In 3 mesi i prezzi sono pressoché triplicati!!!
Aumenteranno o diminuiranno????
Modulo 64Mb:  fine giugno £ 90.000 ca.
                          fine agosto £ 190.000 ca
                          fine settembre £ 300.000 ca.
Ma siamo pazzi?????
Ciao a tutti,
Cesare.


vi invio un interessante articolo sul tema
Memory Prices: Analysis and Forecast
The main aim of this article is to try to find out what exactly is
going
on today in the memory market and in the computer market in general.
What
caused such an upsurge of the prices on memory modules and how long it
may
last. From the very beginning we may state the only thing: it is
impossible to single out one factor, which will be to blame for this
situation. The climax was reached when a number of absolutely
independent
factors, which have nothing to do with each other appeared altogether
in
one and the same place simultaneously. It looks very similar to the
situation with such well-known elements as sulfur, saltpeter and
charcoal,
which can hardly threaten to explode if taken separately. However, if
we
mix them together we will get gunpowder. And by the middle of this
summer
we also got a very dangerous mixture of the following components: 
Reduction of 64Mbit SDRAM Manufacturing
Frankly speaking, the whole thing started somewhere in spring, when
the
companies unable to stand the competition began to quit the 64Mbit
DRAM
market, when the retail price on the chips appeared even lower than
the
manufacturing cost. Among those who left the market were Matsushita,
Toshiba, Fujitsu, IBM. Not to mention the smaller companies, which
failed
to live through the price wars breaking out now and then. While the
average cost of a memory chip was about $5 (if there are no special
remarks, hereinafter we will mean 64Mbit SDRAM), its retail price in
the
open market in the beginning of May fell below $4! Which is a record
for
the whole history of their manufacturing.
The price changes for PC100 SDRAM chips during the last 7 months.
Not so long ago the number of average memory manufacturers could be
counted in tens, while during the last year this amount has
significantly
reduced, which is quite natural especially taking into account the
financial losses everyone hardly managed to escape. However, these
financial difficulties cropped up not this year. If you were following
the
news about a year ago you may still remember 3 July: "In July even the
largest SDRAM chips manufacturers as Samsung and Hyundai will stop
their
factories for a week". Even then the memory manufacturers tried to
undertake something in order to avoid overloading the memory market.
Unfortunately, the successful attempts were so rare that they hardly
influenced the overall situation that much. 
So, the long-lasting crisis resulted into the fact that the army of
DRAM
manufacturers met this autumn having suffered very tangible losses
among
its members. Besides, their belts were already pretty hardly
tightened. Of
course, it is not an extraordinary discovery that if you want to
manufacture something you have to invest into this business,
especially if
it deals with such dynamic and subject to rush changes branch as
computer
industry. 
You probably remember Alice in Wonderland: "Well, as you see, here you
need to run as fast as you can if you want to stay on the same place.
If
you decide to get somewhere else, you will have to run at least twice
as
fast". Recently almost all the memory manufacturers did their best to
run
at least at their maximum speed in order to stay alive. The financial
means were enough only to upgrade the technical equipment from time to
time. The only ones, who managed to run a bit faster than possible,
were
Samsung and Nanya. These companies are the only two, who have built
new
factories during the last few years. 
The amount of the products manufactured grew mainly due to the
increasing
complexity and perfection of the technologies, the greater share of
good
chips, etc. This tendency kept on developing for quite a while without
any
problems. In other words, this situation was taken as the normal
course of
events until the demand for memory suddenly jumped up. 
Memory Size Doubles in Entry Level PCs
Bearing in mind impressively low prices on memory, we shouldn't get so
greatly surprised. The today's software requires quite much memory for
the
PC, and 64MB provide a rather noticeable performance gain compared to
32MB. That is why if there is a chance to make such a cool addition to
your PC for less than $30 you will hardly hesitate to do it. Just
remember
Micron's efforts, which tried to quickly reduce its growing reserves
in
the beginning of this summer and hence did its best to influence the
PC
manufacturers in this respect. 
So, in the beginning of summer the memory suddenly appeared greatly
demanded, and though it was not 64/32=2 times as high, not all the PCs
were offered with 32MB and all of them at once shifted to 64MB memory.
Nevertheless, the change seemed very serious. Especially if we mention
here the so popular in the States "free" computers, which were given
as a
free gift when you pay for the Internet connection for a long period
of
time or even simply for the ads and c ontributed greatly to the
growing
demand. 
Well, the demand for memory got significantly higher. However, the
memory
manufacturers, who got so tired and exhausted during the last years
appeared unable to adequately react and to quickly increase the
manufacturing volumes.
Manufacturers Pass over to More Profitable Memory Types
As we see, some companies left the market, and some of them decided to
save time and trouble and simply shifted to more profitable memory -
128Mbit SDRAM. This is undoubtedly a very logic solution. This seems
particularly clever keeping in mind that though the manufacturing of
these
chips costs almost the same money as that of 64Mbit SDRAM, the their
price
in May was almost 6 times as high as that of 64Mbit SDRAM chips. The
only
problem is that we will have to wait for some time before 128Mbit
chips
are really widely used for memory modules manufacturing, while 64Mbit
chips are urgently needed right now, which may appear a problem since
most
companies simply escaped the market. 
Into the Year 2000 with the Renewed PC Park
Those who haven't yet managed to replace their old PCs continue buying
new
equipment providing quite noticeable sales volumes, which may even
turn to
be top ones for the near future. Most large companies had to replace
sometimes over 1,000 pieces of 386 and 486 PCs, which can also be
regarded
as an explanation of the growing demand. And here it is about not only
the
demand for memory, but also for all other component parts. 
Reserving Components
This is another factor, which has to do with the problem of the year
2000.
Taiwan, for instance, suffered the disabling of the country's whole
electricity three times already. But the chips manufacturing is a
continuous technological process, and its stopping is more than just a
short break for a couple of hours: the company loses millions of
dollars,
or even worse. And if we take into account that Taiwan provides the
market
with about 80 percent of the mainboards and with several types of
semiconductors, the whole thing will seem just tragic. Moreover,
Taiwan is
the main manufacturer of PC cases, keyboards, modems, power supplies,
scanners, monitors, network adapters and hubs. 
And now let us compose a short and simple plot of the horror movie
about
computer companies' life. Time - the year 2000. Place - Taiwan. Or
Malaysia. Or Philippines. Or any of the developing countries, which
makes
us hesitate about the readiness of its infrastructure for the year
2000.
And as you can imagine, the whole computer industry totally depends on
the
component parts manufactured here, in these countries. Do you know
that in
case something really happens we will have to choose between the chips
made by the Canadian ATI and Matrox, which do everything themselves
from A
to Z? We believe you know that. 3dfx and nVidia prefer to rely on
TSMC, S3
- on UMC, etc. IBM for instance, gets most component parts for its
systems
from Acer, which is also situated in the notorious Taiwan. 
And moreover, we suggest not mentioning here such "trifles" as
continuous
conflicts between China and Taiwan, when it even came to real war
threats,
namely missile attacks, which will only aggravate our attitude. 
If this basic chain link of the supply industry gets broken, the whole
computer industry will go to hell. And this risk is quite high. Not so
long ago Intel checked if its Japanese suppliers are well prepared for
the
coming year 2000. "The general description of the situation with our
Japanese suppliers can be defined with one single word: terrible. Most
of
them haven't even started to take the appropriate measures, and those
who
started acted absolutely inadequately. In fact, they simply looked for
the
reasons to justify their idleness". 
What will undertake in this case any sensible company (not necessarily
a
computer one), which wishes to keep serving their customers after the
first of January no matter what may happen to its suppliers?
Absolutely
correct: it will reserve component parts for a week, for a month, for
two,
it depends. The list of the companies, which have to think about it,
includes Intel, IBM, etc. Patrick Gelsinger, the head of Intel group
on
the desktop PC products has recently announced that his company
expects
some supply problems in the end of the year and hence "we plan to
slightly
increase the reserves". The same thing refers to most largest computer
companies. It's pretty easy to imagine what the reserves stored by
such
giants will really look like. The demand upsurge undoubtedly covers
all
the needs of the end users and can be used to explain the mysterious
absence of memory, harddisks, etc. 
Psychology of the Crowd
The rumors about the Micron's problems with its 0.21 micron technology
started spreading in the end of June. They were exactly the spark that
burned this gunpowder storage. Some fellows expressed their
suppositions
that the prices would stabilize or even begin rising by the end of the
year. It was a good start. And then the whole thing developed pretty
quickly. Besides, the demand was much higher than the offer (see
above).
And the most common reaction in such a situation is to store a bit for
future use. However, this "bit" may appear twice or three times larger
as
the customers' real needs, which is supposed to be helpful in case of
further price increase. 
Here we suggest recalling Ilia Ilf and Evgenii Petrov (we hope you
have
heard about them and maybe even read): 
The situation was very similar to what we see today. Everybody tried
to
assure each other that everything was just perfect and that there was
no
need to worry. However, each of the citizens laid himself out trying
to
find as much money as possible and to buy the thing they all secretly
believed to be not enough for everyone. :-) So, they ran home took the
money and then queued in a long line for the vitally essential thing:
the
flour. ;-) 
Conclusions
During the coming few months the situation is expected to remain the
same
as today. There is still some time left before 1 January that's why
September and October are very likely to be marked by another price
increase on memory chips as well as by a number of problems with other
component parts, such as the affordable harddisks shortage, for
instance.
By December, however, all this buying fever should be over and the
tendency we watch today will take an absolutely opposite course. 
We will meet the new Year 2000 with those computer companies, which
can
boast considerable reserves of component parts, and with the
manufacturers
of these parts, which set the process - mostly 0.19 and 0.18 micron -
into
full swing in order to combat the growing shortage. However, the
demand
won't be as huge as today that's why there will be no need to resume
the
reserves, because everybody, who wanted, have already prepared for the
year 2000, and the Christmas time never was the hottest sales period. 
As a result, all this should lead to price reduction in December,
which
will grow into one of the most powerful price wars by spring. This
will be
a really bloody battle and don't be surprised if you don't see some
very
familiar and dear names in the market in summer. Similar to the
situation
with Hayes, SyQuest and Hercules, which are no longer within sight. 
<=>
francesco iannuzzelli
fran...@endesis.com

L'articolo parla di una situazione contingente, ma non dell'imponderabile
...
1) Aumento del dollaro da giugno a ora dell'8%.
2) Taiwan č uno dei maggiori produttori di semiconduttori. Una diminuzione
della produzione (se non il tracollo) si traduce in un aumento ella
richiesta ed un calo dell'offerta = aumento dei prezzi !
Tra luglio ed oggi, ci sono stati degli aumenti dovuti alla crisi
Cina-Taiwan.
In questi giorni il costo delle RAM č ulteriormente raddoppiato a causa del
gravissimo terremoto.
Ergo, non pensate sempre che stanno cercando di fregarvi !
Marco Favata
webm...@loginsrl.it
www.loginsrl.it

Hai presente il termine speculazione ????